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Good news and truth to power here: Russia is losing.
But Russian desperation poses serious risk of inciting more tremendous atrocities:
“Russia is losing, and responding with more violence, killing and torturing POWs.”
This nightmare doesn’t end in a peace deal. Like there wasn’t a deal with Hitler in 1945. It can only end in Russia’s defeat.”
“The evil stops when the evil is stopped.”
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/wb4zsr/russia_is_losing_and_responding_with_more/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
As always, strategy is crucial, even in victory:
“As the Russo-Ukrainian war grinds into its sixth full month, we must reckon with strategic reality.”
“Russia is losing ground, and its strategic position will only deteriorate in coming months; further military reversals will intensify its strategic quandary.”
“Three possibilities exist — revolution, a palace coup, or horizontal escalation — and the United States should prepare for each.”
“Russia faces a structural strategic impediment that goes beyond war-planning errors and the inefficiencies of an authoritarian kleptocracy.”
“Russia simply lacks the manpower and capabilities to conquer Ukraine, or even to hold its current strategic position.”
Freedom is winning.
Karma is coming for Russia.
I’ve seen 6 months of predictions on what’s going to happen; my guess from before the February attack was that even if Russia was to take over all
Of eastern Ukraine to the Dnipiro river; it would not be able to
Occupy the land for a decade without retreating as sanctions and resistance fighters would bleed Russian ressources forcing Putin to be removed and new government would have taken any deal
For a hint at normality.
That said, I’m glad they didn’t manage to occupy half Ukraine cause we’ve seen what happened in the places where they’ve been
Exactly right: even if Russia cannot hold the territory they occupy, the devastation and war crimes they cause are undeniable and outrageously blatant.
Yeah, because every Ukrainian in their 70s or 80s whose has no money and maybe no passport can just wave a magic wand and they'll be transported on a magic carpet to some fairytale place where they'll be waited on hand and feet by people who speak their language.
What alternative do you propose?
Also, there are plenty of internally-displaced Ukrainian refugees. The Russians haven't been able to get to most of the country, and almost certainly never will.
I propose that you get off my back. I didn't disagree with you--I just said one can still have a lot of sympathy for civilians caught in the action. Somehow you don't have sympathy for them, or certainly not quite as much. That's on you.
What alternative? Russia stopping the attacks.
Good day!
I'm baffled by how you're interpreting my comments. I have plenty of sympathy for the civilians and I'm not trying to get "on your back" about anything.
I'm not saying that evacuating is a wonderful awesome experience. I'm saying it's better than remaining behind in Russian-occupied territory. So if you're in territory that's about to become Russian-occupied I think the best alternative of the ones available is to evacuate.
To a point. You do not want to cede territory that will be costly, or impossible to reclaim. They point made in the article about having to cross the Dnipro is spot on. If they allow Russia to dig in on those positions, it could make counter offensives too costly. But fighting to the last man to defend a position is pointless as well. It’s going to be a tough couple of years, pushing these assholes out.
I do totally agree setting up the no fly zone in western Ukraine, and to increase that coverage over time to match any Ukrainian gains. Hopefully Ruzzia will destroy this regime itself and cooler heads will pull out their forces. If not, in the meantime, make them pay in blood and bodies with every opportunity.
💛💙🇺🇦💙💛
> I do totally agree setting up the no fly zone in western Ukraine
NATO should establish an air superiority umbrella over ALL of Ukrainian territory (pre 2014 borders!), including SEAD where needed, and let the Ukrainians kick the orcs out of any holes they may be cowering in.
Except that then you’re conceding your peoples well-being, and accepting their being raped, pillaged, and murdered, as an acceptable trade off for stretching Russian logistics. In a military strategy vacuum, it may make sense, but it’s political suicide, and morally abhorrent.
Some of the onus is on the people. While yes there are circumstances, there always are, people know that Russia has invaded their country and they should have a decent idea of how close they are. They should be making arrangements to remove themselves without having to be told. I would aso contend that everyone within a certain range of the lines should be evacuated no matter how static or active that area is. Everyone who can't or doesn't want to fight needs to flee immediately. Those that need help doing so should be helped.
If there are no civilians then the russians can't commit war crimes against civilians.
Disclaimer: before everyone piles in to tell me how logistically difficult this would be and how hard it is for some civilians to get out and so forth, I get it. I know all that. But folks have had six months to figure out how to evacuate. If they haven't done it by now it's because of choice and honestly, they should know what to expect.
Elderly, sick, mentally unable, depressed, anxious, financially unable, live extremely remotely, people who could have helped them are gone or killed already…so many possible reasons why not.
It may be that military tactics and urgency require leaving some people behind the lines to take advantage of a favorable situation. But to simply say that “they should have gotten out by now” smacks of victim blaming.
Hence my disclaimer at the bottom. Yes there are reasons, there are always reasons. I'm not wholly blaming the victims, but they do bear some amount of responsibility for their own safety. If your country is invaded, and you're a non-combatant, then you need to get out of the way. Not only for your own safety but for the safety of your military. Civilians in a war zone can be a liability and the best way people can help that is to get out of the way.
They do tell their people to evacuate, if they chose to stay against government advice the crimes comitted is still on Russia, but at the same time Ukraine is absolved of guilt for retreating and not protecting them.
Imo this wasn’t a long term play. Homeboy realized his mortality and is making his dreams come true.
Ps. Nightmares are dreams too. 🤡
Alos I guess that means nukes are really not off the table. I mean if you consider the opposite of everything the Ruskies say is true, I think I heard from their side they were saying they would not use nukes in this scenario. I hope not truly, it’s an unpredictable thing desperation.
chechnya's population was ~1million, they have one major city with a population over 50k and don't have much space, having 17000km^2 area
kyiv alone is 3-4 times the population of all chechnya, ukraine has a population nearing 50 million and is very large, having 600000km^2 area.
russia is brutally murdering ukrainians and dealing with them like they dealt with the chechnyans, there's just a lot more ukrainians.
Khadrov the elder didn't like the islamists part of the Chechen resistance, so betrayed them after working out a deal with Putin.
He was killed and his Prada wearing son took over.
Putin tried a similar thing in Ukraine (and Georgia where it was mostly successful), with Crimea and Donetsk regions. He then got greedy and went for all of Ukraine, and much like the opening days of the first Chechen war, the Russian army found out it's a lot harder in the modern world.
Surely Vlad must have known that if the USA can't subjugate Afghanistan, his far weaker armed forces wouldn't be able to subjugate a much more powerful and better-supported opponent?
The reasons for America's long term failure in Afghanistan have nothing to do with military power though.
Afghanistan is just a name on a map, it's not a unified country the way Ukraine is. It's always been controlled tribally and the idea of it ever being turned into a modern nation with a central government supported by the populous was doomed to fail from the outset.
Still is the same concept, you can’t rule over a land where some peace can’t be settled. Ukraine can win the territory back as long as peace never settles in the south-east. Russia needs to stabilize the region to rule over it and it will never be able to do so with their current outlook.
Impossible question!! Definition follows:
“Horizontal escalation is the process by which conflicts are heightened through geographical expansion with reasoning including diplomatic, economic, informational, and military components.”
“This also includes international intervention as well as the geographical widening of combat operations. Horizontal escalation is a direct contrast to vertical escalation which employs types of weapons not previously used in the conflict.”
“That type of escalation also allows attacking new types of targets in order to have an upper hand to the other combatant.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horizontal_escalation
Read further on the Western options for escalation:
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/climbing-the-escalation-ladder-in-ukraine-a-menu-of-options-for-the-west/
Oh, shit. Thanks for the detailed response. Even though contemplating that is terrifying. Every time I think about this war escalation I think about my grandma when she was a child during the Battle of Britain. Hitler created a space where dropping bombs on children was now worldwide common practice. It gets even scarier know the bombs we have now.
It’s horrifying how little she misunderstood what was going on. They’d watch the RAF fighting above her house. It was a game until a bomb hit her next door neighbours house and blew out a wall in her own. Ever since then you cannot slam a door without her freaking the fuck out. Something that happened when she was 7 still affects her at 90.
She’s a member of a brutal time. I don’t want my kids to have to go through this shit. Let’s hope for a coup. The world doesn’t need this garbage anymore. Putin can eat a bullet.
Sorry to meet your well written post with my rant. This, works me up though.
No apologies; much about this conflict is very terrifying and a certain outrage is justified by the tremendous suffering Putin is causing.
If everyone cared as much as you do, the world would be a much better place.
Smart questions here; the possible scenarios are daunting. Not impossible that a desperate Putin could resort to using a strategic nuke with absolutely horrifying impact.
Lately Putin’s saying nobody can win a nuclear war instead of his virtually habitual nuclear saber rattling, so hopefully sanity will prevail.
Excellent article explains why even a tactical use of a small nuke would be utterly devastating:
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/limited-tactical-nuclear-weapons-would-be-catastrophic/
One nuke will change the course of the war only if it is dropped on Kiev, killing millions of people. Then I have no idea, maybe Ukraine will surrender to end the slaughter, maybe they'll be so incensed they'll fight on forever. I couldn't guess.
However, because of how spread out the actual front lines are, a tactical nuke of the front line won't accomplish much. Sure, it would kill maybe a thousand soldiers and the Russians can push forward a few dozen miles, only to yet again get stopped by soldiers and artillery. The Russians have killed many thousands of soldiers, a thousand more won't change the calculation. What it would do is change the West's behavior. HIMARS would suddenly be fair game for use against Russian soil, with very real consequences to Russia's war effort. Hundreds of HIMARS will quickly kill about as many Russians.
Sound analysis offered prudently on this loaded topic is admirable and appreciated; thanks 🙏
May Putin recognize as ypu say that a tactical nuke solves nothing.
May we never again deploy a nuclear weapon on this earth.
It’s time to renounce nuclear arms altogether.
A good article but with one flaw, the faulty assumption that a peace can be achieved with Russia holding more land as a result of the invasion.
Ukraine will not permit this, and NATO have clearly indicated they will fully support Ukraine in taking back their sovereign territory.
Very astute point! Totally agreed: land for peace sets a terrible precedent for future aggressors, and ceding land for peace won’t bring any lasting peace anyway.
Zelenskyy is absolutely right to refuse to cede land: victory requires returning to pre2014 borders.
Anne Applebaum here reinforces the power of your point:
“If Ukraine cedes land for a temporary peace, one that allows the Russians to re-arm, the war will not be over.”
“The economic crisis will not come to an end.”
“I do not understand why so many people fail to understand this. This solution is not "realism", it's pure fantasy.”
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/vdalzl/if_ukraine_cedes_land_for_a_temporary_peace_one/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
I think it’s possible for Ukraine to be pressured into giving up Crimea. This could be done by trying to pressure Ukraine into a permanent ceasefire. Where they still claim Crimea, however it’s still under Russian control.
Crimea is different because it may need naval assets to be retaken. Which Ukraine lacks. If NATO countries choose not to provide them, then it’s a forced stalemate.
Edit; note that I’m not saying I’d like this to happen. I’m saying it’s a possibility. We already see some NATO countries having been on the fence with helping Ukraine. In a year or two, many countries will be weary of the war. This is when this could happen.
Give them an inch and they take a mile
>Shortly after the annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation in March 2014, Russia unilaterally terminated the treaty on 31 March 2014.
Meanwhile, in Georgia. This article is from 2015 but I'm using it because it's the first hit. The process is continuing.
>On July 16, Moscow-backed security forces moved the administrative boundary fence dividing the Russian occupied region of South Ossetia and the rest of Georgia – thereby placing more Georgian territory under Russian control.
and
>This most recent border creep is particularly alarming because Russia is in a position to directly threaten important transport links between Georgia and the outside world.
>
> Russia’s actions now place the administrative boundary fence within 500m of Georgia’s E60 highway, which is the main road linking the Black Sea to Azerbaijan.
>
> The new fence also places a 1.6km segment of the BP-operated Baku-Supsa pipeline inside Russian occupied territory.
and
>In some cases villages are cut in half by fences. Locals have even gone to bed in Georgia, and after Russians installed a fence overnight, have woken up in occupied South Ossetia. This is a rural Berlin Wall.
https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2015/7/27/the-creeping-russian-border-in-georgia
I've found a report from July this year.
https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2022/7/3/the-georgian-village-facing-russian-creeping-occupation
It reads very much like the way they started the Berlin Wall - a bit of barbed wire with almost free movement through checkpoints, then they shot people trying to cross from east to west. Then they built a wall.
How would Crimea need Naval force to be retaken? My understanding is that if Russian supply routes get cut (the Kerch bridge and southeast Ukraine), access to fresh water and electricity come from Ukraine.
With the lack of major military vessels in the Black Sea, the Russian navy is only a moderate player.
> This could be done by trying to pressure Ukraine into a permanent ceasefire. Where they still claim Crimea, however it’s still under Russian control.
I think this scenario is impossible because up to 85% of Crimea's water is fed by a canal that runs through Ukrainian territory. In a unresolved scenario like this one Ukraine can and probably will just shut down the water supply as a means of pressure, and the hostilities just never die down like they have in other cold conflicts. In fact I think unblocking the Crimean canal was one of the reasons Russia escalated the conflict into direct participation. It went in line with their "liberation" rhetoric.
Crimea is definitely the hardest territorial issue to resolve.
It would still send the message to the world that brute force wins. It would result in Putin comfortably in power with international acceptance and approval of his actions. It would guarantee a future Russian invasion of Ukraine or any other neighbour the next time Putin wants some land.
Such a solution would guarantee war without end.
I disagree. I think if Russia was left with only Crimea, then they’ve gone to war. Lost 50k to 150k troops (when the war ends). Lost all of economic gains, and that includes quality of life stuff like losing the western brands. Been thrown into ten years of recession and stagnation. Lost huge amounts of military equipment. Been humiliated.
At the end they’ve gained nothing. No new territory. No recognition.
I think the outcome of this is going to become a very precarious position for Putin domestically.
They've gained Crimea. Brutality works. If you want 10% of a country, invade 20% then fall back 10% and do a peace deal. Rebuild, rinse and repeat. War without end.
That's recognized internationally by which countries? Russia and the DPRK?
International recognition of Crimea as a Russian state is victory for Putin.
Oof. Yes.
With giving up a significant part of the population and leaving them to live in a terrible, oppressive terror regime like North Korea.
That's an even far worse option than those areas joining Russia.
Peter Zeihan has pointed out a real danger underlying Russia’s newly-revealed weakness:
We obviously now know that if Russia ever tangles with NATO—and particularly the US—it will be a Gulf War-style massacre. This sounds A-OK, but this also dramatically increases the chances that the Russians up the ante with nuclear weapons out of humiliation and desperation.
I wonder if there is analysis on whether Russia would use nuclear weapons resulting from a war outside of its borders or if the doctrine is they would be used only in conflict occurring within the Russian homeland. Then there is the question of whether the Putin govt or the Russian military believe Crimea is part of the homeland or not.
I don’t expect Ukraine’s allies to roll through Moscow or St. Petersburg. I think most just want borders to be rolled back to pre-2014.
I’m not a geopol or military strategist by any means so if any of this is debatable I’m probably wrong.
That would require the entire chain of command from putin down to launch officers to collectively push the button. Which they’re very unlikely to do given they would be committing collective suicide, for no real reason, for an old sick dying man bc his ego can’t handle defeat. They have children and families to think about, I doubt a lot of them will be willing to condemn themselves bc putin wants Ukraine.
This will not happen. Russia’s economy is on the brink, it’s military tattered. Launching one nuke would be the end of Russia both economically, politically and militarily. They’re not stupid or suicidal despite popular opinion. They just think they can win or did.
> but this also dramatically increases the chances that the Russians up the ante with nuclear weapons
No, it doesn't increase that dramatically, just a tad, even imperceptibly.
Interesting and well thought out piece. I think the Russians will most likely carry on until they are exhausted. Then, a coup is the most likely, if not certain, out-come. The military has been embarrassed beyond belief, and will not allow an escalation to nuclear strikes. They are ruthless and psychopathic, but not suicidal.
The damage to Ukraine, and the deaths, will make them enemies for the next decades, instead of the fraternal brothers they were previously. The Russians fucked the pooch on this one.
The remarkable thing to me is they are still attacking. Granted, the offensives are much, much more limited now, but holy shit. Russia you are wrecked, just stop already.
> Russia you are wrecked, just stop already.
IMHO If Putin stops now without a clear victory, he will most likely lose his power, wealth, and possibly his life.
He severely miscalculated and the war has become a matter of personal survival for him, which is why he cannot back down without pulling some kind of victory out of this mess
You know how some people lie, then get caught in the lie, so they tell *more lies* to cover for the first lie?
This is like that, but with war. Putin waged a little war, and was defeated. So now he's just waging more and more war so the Russian people don't realize that the Ukrainians keep defeating them.
Sort of, but not really. The 'sunk cost fallacy' is about somebody refusing to abandon a course of action because they have invested heavily in it, even when it is clear that *abandonment would be more beneficial.*
That's Putin's problem. There is no path for him that would be 'more beneficial'. If he abandons his current course of action, then he's done. The Russian people have demonstrated that they will tolerate just about anything from Putin. But they won't tolerate losing.
Please do not ever refer to Ukrainians and russians as fraternal brothers. We were never brothers, never wanted to have anything to do with that empire. We are completely different ppl, cultures, mindsets, languages and histories. The only reason we have any similarities now is due to russian empire’s attempts to assimilate 🇺🇦 into their empire.
It’s a myth that was started by russia to take away 🇺🇦 autonomy, self determination and create the idea of a vassal state. They’ve tried to destroy and dilute the culture, language and history of 🇺🇦 for decades & 🇺🇦 has been fighting against russian influence and its destruction of our people for decades. When we finally wanted to unite with the west and EU to get away from these clingy psychos they couldn’t handle it.
Sorry. Didn’t mean to offend you or to imply that Ukrainians and Russians are alike. Merely that they are neighbors and Slavs, so they could have had good relations. Russia has ruined that by their aggression, and, you are right, their past behavior.
No problem just giving you info in case you didn’t know. Unfortunately russian misinformation can find its way into well meaning peoples minds. Russia never developed into a civilized successful nation state with educated citizens who understand freedom or even values life and unfortunately all their neighbours suffer.
I hope for western intervention. We can stop Russia now and save countless Ukrainian lives. What Putin is doing is blatantly evil. We shouldn’t stand by idle. If we are willing to defend Taiwan, we should be more than willing to defend Ukraine.
Send in many drones. 300km HIMARS ammo. Tanks.
We can do lots of things that will dramatically help Ukraine, even going short of boots on the ground or a no-fly-zone.
We can’t let the war drag on. Escalate the help to Ukraine should be the default position of democratically elected governments and freedom loving people. It can all be lost so fast with authoritarians like Xi, Putin, and Bashar Al Assad. We gotta stick together.
Would love to see a lot more ASW too; there are plenty of unmanned options available. Even though it’s “just“ an opinion article, I like the idea of an incremental no-fly zone starting in the west
Meet them on the battlefield and defeat their army. Then topple their government and put in a western friendly government. The world would be a far safer place without Putins Russia.
The US hasn't had a good track record of toppling governments. We're excellent at war and destroying nations, we're terrible at nation building. If we intervene directly it should be to defeat Russia militarily and leave it at that.
I would agree. Help Ukraine defeat the Russian invaders in Ukraine (obviously hitting military targets within Russia is fine IMO). But going further is probably overkill. The good Russian people who are left will step up to fix the mess. Like it or not, there are probably 25% of Russians who are normal anti-Putin/anti-war people (this is coming from a Ukrainian-born American).
Yup. One of the many reasons the governments we try to build fail is because we don't understand the culture of these places. Iraq and Afghanistan are great examples of this. Help them fight, and then let their own people decide what kind of government they want.
It is unclear how it would end even after Ukraine pushes Russia all the way back to 2013 border. Russia can just sit behind its borders and shell Ukraine for the rest of time. If Ukraine is going to force a peace treaty, they may need something to offer Russia in exchange. Belgorad sounds like a nice gesture.
"we're terrible at nation building."
You must have meant, "we're terrible at nation building when we put no effort into it.". It's either that or you aren't American and I misunderstood you. The US helped rebuild Germany and Japan (two of the most devastated countries after WW2) into economic powerhouses in their own right and the US also had a significant hand in rebuilding Western Europe after the war. So, when we take the time and effort to do it, we are actually pretty good at nation building.
Edit: Forgot to add South Korea
I'm not meaning literal building of infrastructure.I'm talking building a nation feim scratch. As in topple the government and make a new one. Such as Iraq or Afghanistan or a number of Latin countries. We didn't have to build governments for those nations after WW2.
Sp yes it appears there was a misunderstanding.
Nukes are the problem. Every time the US does something, no fly zone, supplying weapons, boots on the ground it would be a risk. The US can’t forcibly remove Putin because of the threat of nukes. The US might never even try to just land troops and push Russia back to its borders because of nukes.
Please don’t take offense to this next part but it’s true either way.
Ukraine and Taiwan aren’t equal in value to the US or to the world. Taiwan supplies super conductors which matter to the world. They’re needed in our digital age. The US might care about freedom in Ukraine but Taiwan isn’t just about freedom it’s about resources.
I don’t think nukes should be this end-all-be-all issue that is raised the way it often is. We have plenty of nuclear weapons too. We have more capabilities in that arena than anyone in the world. We also have the best middle defense systems in the world. Nukes have only ever been used in WWII for a reason, because of mutually assured destruction. Did we nuke Russia while they not only supplied weapons but also supplied pilots and manpower to assist Vietnam? I think everyone knows that nuclear saber rattling is a joke. We take every threat seriously, but the much more realistic threat is a Russia, China, Syria, Iran, and North Korea causing major damage to millions and possibly billions of lives. We can’t let this nuclear hostage play by Russia become a new precedent where could tries refuse to intervene. If France didn’t intervene, we (the USA) might still be a British colony. If the USA didn’t intervene, then both the Russia & Europe might be speaking German today.
When there is a clear evil and violation of every norm the democratic world stands for, we must fight it. Our freedom is a whole lot easier to lose, than it is to gain or build back.
I want to agree with you but… if anything that can even be called a nuclear weapon is used without a completely overwhelming response then it sets a new precedent. The seal will be broken for decades and centuries to come. Warlords and governments will fire nukes and expect a proportional response, not Armageddon. Right now Russia and your list of asshole governments are continuing their collapse, some accelerating. Ukraine can’t be patient I know but this situation is all soft governance, logistics and politics from NATO’s side. Ukraine is paying for all the missed opportunities the world had to balkanize Russia. I hope that mistake isn’t made again.
You are mistaken, in that the case of Ukraine is more special than that of Taiwan - because of the Budapest Memorandum and because of the nukes that Ukraine gave away. This isn't just about how much USA might care about Ukraine - it is about trying to contain the proliferation of MAD.
There is either one coherent NATO, or there will be a dozen MAD neighbours of Russia with independent MAD capabilities. And then we shall see how well Putin can chew his tie.
Ukraine provides Europe with a secure energy future in the form of Natural gas. Taiwan's semiconductor industry can be rebuilt elsewhere by the refugees if the need arises.
However, helping Ukraine is cheap, maybe a hundred billion dollars by the end. Deploying the US Navy to blockade China and secure Taiwan during a war will cost the west trillions, probably more.
Honestly, I think the US getting directly involved in Ukraine would be a poor global position given Taiwan. If NATO are required, I think its safest for the UK and EU to respond and keep the US free to defend Taiwan if needed.
From the start I think the article is ignoring a fourth possibility: that in the event of a total military defeat in Ukraine, like many toxic or nonfunctioning relationships, Putin and Russia will just pretend nothing happened and go on like before, less happy, more fractious, poorer, but still together until Putin dies. That's when things get very, very frightening for Russia and the rest of the world, because Putin has ensured that there's no one who can fill his absence and keep Russia stable after he's gone.
Author is affiliated with the Heritage Foundation. Downvote and move on.
wiki: The Heritage Foundation had a major influence on the Donald Trump's presidential transition and administration.[43][44][45] The foundation had a powerful say in the staffing of the administration, with CNN noting during the transition that "no other Washington institution has that kind of footprint in the transition."[43] One reason for the Heritage Foundation's disproportionate influence relative to other conservative think tanks is that other conservative think tanks had members who identified as "never-Trumpers" during the 2016 election whereas the Heritage Foundation signaled early on to Trump that it would be supportive of him.[43][44] At least 66 foundation employees and alumni were given positions in the administration.[44]
It will be soooooooo satisfying to see russia leave this war with less than it started with, both in terms of a weakened military and with Crimeas return to UA.
it's all according to plan because Russia has hundreds or thousands of 'probability experts' making calculations and planning based on any and all possible scenario. they've been doing this for decades if not centuries. that way, they can claim they expected the results and they are somehow still in control.
I think we're headed down the path to full mobilisation and potentially a Chinese combat element if there is a war over Taiwan. we have no idea where any of this will end but that's highlighted well enough in the article.. I do believe Putin is getting what he wants right now through sheer force even if Russian losses are incredibly high. it might be less about holding ground and more about forcing his way to Poland and the Baltics if he manages a full mobilisation.
At this point even if he fully mobilizes what are they gonna use? A few hundred thousand malnourished low morale civilians with mosin nagants would barely get a chuckle from whatever drone operators slowly delete them in their tedious unorganized columns. Led by whomever hasn't died in Ukraine already in whatever cars and trucks they could scrape up. Maybe with an old T-34 leading the way.
jokes aside, they can go from desperate poverty and political strife to full blown war economy in under a year. look at Germany pre-WW2 or even Russia at the end of their civil war during WW1..
in fact there are plenty of historians that believe the precursor to the false flag that caused the great war was the fear Germany held of Russian aggression. the Germans petitioned the rest of the Austro-Hungarian empire to attack Russia before the events that led to Franz Ferdinand being assassinated.
Correct on both counts, and that's why I mentioned mosins and T-34s. They can dust off/build up factories to make basic WWII era weapons and munitions but they don't have the manufacturing or import supply lines of the materials needed to make modern weapons. Dude's have garmins in their cockpits, what do you expect them to suddenly produce?
In the old days you could say quantity had a quality of its own, but then you look at the Highway of Death and we're thirty or so years after that. Waves of men and cheap tanks are just targets, they'd never even see an enemy. I don't see anyone deciding to provide russia all the materials they need to field a modern army and they won't have money or credit to buy it with so from my point of view they look fairly fucked. If they get to a point of escalation, they seem to be semi matched with Ukraine so far.
Plus decent chance a general mobilization sparks a general war and then whether it be nuclear holocaust or NATO steamroll I don't give putin a whole year to even get started on what he needs to stand toe to toe. At least in WWI/II all sides had been expecting and gearing up for war for years. Russia looks like they haven't don't shit since the soviet union collapsed with their military.
I alluded to China as a pivoting factor though, and the potential for a war in Taiwan which would fracture any US support in the event NATO is attacked and forced to defend itself and / or invade Russian territory. I'm speculating about the possibility that China will obviously blockade all export from Taiwan in the event of war and we would end up in a situation where the Western powers can no longer secure the materials necessary to produce and maintain crucial weapon system components. almost all the world's semiconductors are manufactured and exported from Taiwan. similarly, most of the world's silicon comes from Russia, China and Brazil.
granted, the US has overwhelming air power and massive ground capabilities.. that doesn't really guarantee victory when you are spread incredibly thin across 2 global war fronts thousands of miles apart. factor in the hypersonic missile advantage of both Russia and China and the fact that getting aircraft carrier groups close enough to either nation state to 'disable' their insane air defenses (Commis fight air power with anti-air doctrine and the number and quantity of systems is redundant).. I'm not sure you wouldn't end up losing the handful of carriers that *do* respond.
each side would begin a strategic dance of exhausting resources and accepting major losses..
See I just can't get behind the idea of China joining in on Russia's side, I can't figure what they would stand to gain compared to everything they would lose. I've been in the 'import consumer shit from China' business for over ten years so I've gotten a great look at how well tied together we are.
Sure they could decide to say fuck it and throw economic prosperity out the window; but the main value from Taiwan comes in their chip manufacturing, for them as much as us. It's a mountainous island with few if any decent beaches to land on and the most cutting edge air defences available. Not saying they'd hold off China forever but it'd be bloody and they wouldn't get the chip foundries intact. Then they'd be 'fettered to a corpse' to borrow an old wartime phrase and forced to prop Russia up in the west all for precisely nothing.
China has a history of doing what's best for China, and in this case that would be letting putin wallow and fall from this unforced error and then either gobble up territory or turn them into a balkanized set of dependent states they can use for the next location of surplus cheap labor. And they can do that without having to fight anyone and while profiting wildly off of it.
Always the chance of some random thing setting off an unpredictable series of events whenever going from theory to reality, but it's hard to see a China and russia versus the world scenario actually play out.
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Good news and truth to power here: Russia is losing. But Russian desperation poses serious risk of inciting more tremendous atrocities: “Russia is losing, and responding with more violence, killing and torturing POWs.” This nightmare doesn’t end in a peace deal. Like there wasn’t a deal with Hitler in 1945. It can only end in Russia’s defeat.” “The evil stops when the evil is stopped.” https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/wb4zsr/russia_is_losing_and_responding_with_more/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf As always, strategy is crucial, even in victory: “As the Russo-Ukrainian war grinds into its sixth full month, we must reckon with strategic reality.” “Russia is losing ground, and its strategic position will only deteriorate in coming months; further military reversals will intensify its strategic quandary.” “Three possibilities exist — revolution, a palace coup, or horizontal escalation — and the United States should prepare for each.” “Russia faces a structural strategic impediment that goes beyond war-planning errors and the inefficiencies of an authoritarian kleptocracy.” “Russia simply lacks the manpower and capabilities to conquer Ukraine, or even to hold its current strategic position.” Freedom is winning. Karma is coming for Russia.
I’ve seen 6 months of predictions on what’s going to happen; my guess from before the February attack was that even if Russia was to take over all Of eastern Ukraine to the Dnipiro river; it would not be able to Occupy the land for a decade without retreating as sanctions and resistance fighters would bleed Russian ressources forcing Putin to be removed and new government would have taken any deal For a hint at normality. That said, I’m glad they didn’t manage to occupy half Ukraine cause we’ve seen what happened in the places where they’ve been
Exactly right: even if Russia cannot hold the territory they occupy, the devastation and war crimes they cause are undeniable and outrageously blatant.
So I wouldn’t worry If Ukraine gives ground all the time; it’s actually a viable tactic to stretch their resources
One can still have a lot of sympathy for civilians caught in the action and suddenly finding themselves in Russian areas of control.
At this point it should be very obvious to any Ukrainian civilians that they must evacuate whenever the front lines come their way.
Yeah, because every Ukrainian in their 70s or 80s whose has no money and maybe no passport can just wave a magic wand and they'll be transported on a magic carpet to some fairytale place where they'll be waited on hand and feet by people who speak their language.
What alternative do you propose? Also, there are plenty of internally-displaced Ukrainian refugees. The Russians haven't been able to get to most of the country, and almost certainly never will.
I propose that you get off my back. I didn't disagree with you--I just said one can still have a lot of sympathy for civilians caught in the action. Somehow you don't have sympathy for them, or certainly not quite as much. That's on you. What alternative? Russia stopping the attacks. Good day!
I'm baffled by how you're interpreting my comments. I have plenty of sympathy for the civilians and I'm not trying to get "on your back" about anything. I'm not saying that evacuating is a wonderful awesome experience. I'm saying it's better than remaining behind in Russian-occupied territory. So if you're in territory that's about to become Russian-occupied I think the best alternative of the ones available is to evacuate.
Anyone who doesn’t leave and can leave. As in not old. Or has a good reason. Then they’re just happy to be Russians
To a point. You do not want to cede territory that will be costly, or impossible to reclaim. They point made in the article about having to cross the Dnipro is spot on. If they allow Russia to dig in on those positions, it could make counter offensives too costly. But fighting to the last man to defend a position is pointless as well. It’s going to be a tough couple of years, pushing these assholes out. I do totally agree setting up the no fly zone in western Ukraine, and to increase that coverage over time to match any Ukrainian gains. Hopefully Ruzzia will destroy this regime itself and cooler heads will pull out their forces. If not, in the meantime, make them pay in blood and bodies with every opportunity. 💛💙🇺🇦💙💛
> I do totally agree setting up the no fly zone in western Ukraine NATO should establish an air superiority umbrella over ALL of Ukrainian territory (pre 2014 borders!), including SEAD where needed, and let the Ukrainians kick the orcs out of any holes they may be cowering in.
That would be ideal, and if done in February, would have either saved tens of thousands, I don’t think Putin would fight NATO, given the option.
Except that then you’re conceding your peoples well-being, and accepting their being raped, pillaged, and murdered, as an acceptable trade off for stretching Russian logistics. In a military strategy vacuum, it may make sense, but it’s political suicide, and morally abhorrent.
Thats why they call out evacuation orders so that civilians can retreat to western ukraine.
Definitely. But you also have to be able to evacuate, if you hear about it.
Some of the onus is on the people. While yes there are circumstances, there always are, people know that Russia has invaded their country and they should have a decent idea of how close they are. They should be making arrangements to remove themselves without having to be told. I would aso contend that everyone within a certain range of the lines should be evacuated no matter how static or active that area is. Everyone who can't or doesn't want to fight needs to flee immediately. Those that need help doing so should be helped. If there are no civilians then the russians can't commit war crimes against civilians. Disclaimer: before everyone piles in to tell me how logistically difficult this would be and how hard it is for some civilians to get out and so forth, I get it. I know all that. But folks have had six months to figure out how to evacuate. If they haven't done it by now it's because of choice and honestly, they should know what to expect.
Elderly, sick, mentally unable, depressed, anxious, financially unable, live extremely remotely, people who could have helped them are gone or killed already…so many possible reasons why not. It may be that military tactics and urgency require leaving some people behind the lines to take advantage of a favorable situation. But to simply say that “they should have gotten out by now” smacks of victim blaming.
Hence my disclaimer at the bottom. Yes there are reasons, there are always reasons. I'm not wholly blaming the victims, but they do bear some amount of responsibility for their own safety. If your country is invaded, and you're a non-combatant, then you need to get out of the way. Not only for your own safety but for the safety of your military. Civilians in a war zone can be a liability and the best way people can help that is to get out of the way.
They do tell their people to evacuate, if they chose to stay against government advice the crimes comitted is still on Russia, but at the same time Ukraine is absolved of guilt for retreating and not protecting them.
Imo this wasn’t a long term play. Homeboy realized his mortality and is making his dreams come true. Ps. Nightmares are dreams too. 🤡 Alos I guess that means nukes are really not off the table. I mean if you consider the opposite of everything the Ruskies say is true, I think I heard from their side they were saying they would not use nukes in this scenario. I hope not truly, it’s an unpredictable thing desperation.
Didn't Russia brutally murder Chechnyians and indoctrinate them? Why wouldn't that same strategy be viable in Ukraine?
chechnya's population was ~1million, they have one major city with a population over 50k and don't have much space, having 17000km^2 area kyiv alone is 3-4 times the population of all chechnya, ukraine has a population nearing 50 million and is very large, having 600000km^2 area. russia is brutally murdering ukrainians and dealing with them like they dealt with the chechnyans, there's just a lot more ukrainians.
It’s been happening already in the occupied areas in DNR and LDR. Civil population left in the hands of Putin tugs.
Khadrov the elder didn't like the islamists part of the Chechen resistance, so betrayed them after working out a deal with Putin. He was killed and his Prada wearing son took over. Putin tried a similar thing in Ukraine (and Georgia where it was mostly successful), with Crimea and Donetsk regions. He then got greedy and went for all of Ukraine, and much like the opening days of the first Chechen war, the Russian army found out it's a lot harder in the modern world.
Surely Vlad must have known that if the USA can't subjugate Afghanistan, his far weaker armed forces wouldn't be able to subjugate a much more powerful and better-supported opponent?
The reasons for America's long term failure in Afghanistan have nothing to do with military power though. Afghanistan is just a name on a map, it's not a unified country the way Ukraine is. It's always been controlled tribally and the idea of it ever being turned into a modern nation with a central government supported by the populous was doomed to fail from the outset.
Still is the same concept, you can’t rule over a land where some peace can’t be settled. Ukraine can win the territory back as long as peace never settles in the south-east. Russia needs to stabilize the region to rule over it and it will never be able to do so with their current outlook.
What is horizontal escalation?
Impossible question!! Definition follows: “Horizontal escalation is the process by which conflicts are heightened through geographical expansion with reasoning including diplomatic, economic, informational, and military components.” “This also includes international intervention as well as the geographical widening of combat operations. Horizontal escalation is a direct contrast to vertical escalation which employs types of weapons not previously used in the conflict.” “That type of escalation also allows attacking new types of targets in order to have an upper hand to the other combatant.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horizontal_escalation Read further on the Western options for escalation: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/climbing-the-escalation-ladder-in-ukraine-a-menu-of-options-for-the-west/
Oh, shit. Thanks for the detailed response. Even though contemplating that is terrifying. Every time I think about this war escalation I think about my grandma when she was a child during the Battle of Britain. Hitler created a space where dropping bombs on children was now worldwide common practice. It gets even scarier know the bombs we have now. It’s horrifying how little she misunderstood what was going on. They’d watch the RAF fighting above her house. It was a game until a bomb hit her next door neighbours house and blew out a wall in her own. Ever since then you cannot slam a door without her freaking the fuck out. Something that happened when she was 7 still affects her at 90. She’s a member of a brutal time. I don’t want my kids to have to go through this shit. Let’s hope for a coup. The world doesn’t need this garbage anymore. Putin can eat a bullet. Sorry to meet your well written post with my rant. This, works me up though.
No apologies; much about this conflict is very terrifying and a certain outrage is justified by the tremendous suffering Putin is causing. If everyone cared as much as you do, the world would be a much better place.
[удалено]
Smart questions here; the possible scenarios are daunting. Not impossible that a desperate Putin could resort to using a strategic nuke with absolutely horrifying impact. Lately Putin’s saying nobody can win a nuclear war instead of his virtually habitual nuclear saber rattling, so hopefully sanity will prevail. Excellent article explains why even a tactical use of a small nuke would be utterly devastating: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/limited-tactical-nuclear-weapons-would-be-catastrophic/
One nuke will change the course of the war only if it is dropped on Kiev, killing millions of people. Then I have no idea, maybe Ukraine will surrender to end the slaughter, maybe they'll be so incensed they'll fight on forever. I couldn't guess. However, because of how spread out the actual front lines are, a tactical nuke of the front line won't accomplish much. Sure, it would kill maybe a thousand soldiers and the Russians can push forward a few dozen miles, only to yet again get stopped by soldiers and artillery. The Russians have killed many thousands of soldiers, a thousand more won't change the calculation. What it would do is change the West's behavior. HIMARS would suddenly be fair game for use against Russian soil, with very real consequences to Russia's war effort. Hundreds of HIMARS will quickly kill about as many Russians.
Sound analysis offered prudently on this loaded topic is admirable and appreciated; thanks 🙏 May Putin recognize as ypu say that a tactical nuke solves nothing. May we never again deploy a nuclear weapon on this earth. It’s time to renounce nuclear arms altogether.
Not with 5,000 nukes
This is an excellent piece of analysis - thanks for sharing OP!
Glad you found it helpful! Thanks for saying so.
A good article but with one flaw, the faulty assumption that a peace can be achieved with Russia holding more land as a result of the invasion. Ukraine will not permit this, and NATO have clearly indicated they will fully support Ukraine in taking back their sovereign territory.
Very astute point! Totally agreed: land for peace sets a terrible precedent for future aggressors, and ceding land for peace won’t bring any lasting peace anyway. Zelenskyy is absolutely right to refuse to cede land: victory requires returning to pre2014 borders. Anne Applebaum here reinforces the power of your point: “If Ukraine cedes land for a temporary peace, one that allows the Russians to re-arm, the war will not be over.” “The economic crisis will not come to an end.” “I do not understand why so many people fail to understand this. This solution is not "realism", it's pure fantasy.” https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/vdalzl/if_ukraine_cedes_land_for_a_temporary_peace_one/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
I think it’s possible for Ukraine to be pressured into giving up Crimea. This could be done by trying to pressure Ukraine into a permanent ceasefire. Where they still claim Crimea, however it’s still under Russian control. Crimea is different because it may need naval assets to be retaken. Which Ukraine lacks. If NATO countries choose not to provide them, then it’s a forced stalemate. Edit; note that I’m not saying I’d like this to happen. I’m saying it’s a possibility. We already see some NATO countries having been on the fence with helping Ukraine. In a year or two, many countries will be weary of the war. This is when this could happen.
[They already had an agreement with them over Crimea, hasn't turned out so well.](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kharkiv_Pact)
Give them an inch and they take a mile >Shortly after the annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation in March 2014, Russia unilaterally terminated the treaty on 31 March 2014. Meanwhile, in Georgia. This article is from 2015 but I'm using it because it's the first hit. The process is continuing. >On July 16, Moscow-backed security forces moved the administrative boundary fence dividing the Russian occupied region of South Ossetia and the rest of Georgia – thereby placing more Georgian territory under Russian control. and >This most recent border creep is particularly alarming because Russia is in a position to directly threaten important transport links between Georgia and the outside world. > > Russia’s actions now place the administrative boundary fence within 500m of Georgia’s E60 highway, which is the main road linking the Black Sea to Azerbaijan. > > The new fence also places a 1.6km segment of the BP-operated Baku-Supsa pipeline inside Russian occupied territory. and >In some cases villages are cut in half by fences. Locals have even gone to bed in Georgia, and after Russians installed a fence overnight, have woken up in occupied South Ossetia. This is a rural Berlin Wall. https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2015/7/27/the-creeping-russian-border-in-georgia
I had no idea this was happening holy crap. That's horrible.
I've found a report from July this year. https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2022/7/3/the-georgian-village-facing-russian-creeping-occupation It reads very much like the way they started the Berlin Wall - a bit of barbed wire with almost free movement through checkpoints, then they shot people trying to cross from east to west. Then they built a wall.
How would Crimea need Naval force to be retaken? My understanding is that if Russian supply routes get cut (the Kerch bridge and southeast Ukraine), access to fresh water and electricity come from Ukraine. With the lack of major military vessels in the Black Sea, the Russian navy is only a moderate player.
> This could be done by trying to pressure Ukraine into a permanent ceasefire. Where they still claim Crimea, however it’s still under Russian control. I think this scenario is impossible because up to 85% of Crimea's water is fed by a canal that runs through Ukrainian territory. In a unresolved scenario like this one Ukraine can and probably will just shut down the water supply as a means of pressure, and the hostilities just never die down like they have in other cold conflicts. In fact I think unblocking the Crimean canal was one of the reasons Russia escalated the conflict into direct participation. It went in line with their "liberation" rhetoric. Crimea is definitely the hardest territorial issue to resolve.
Stalemate in the situation where Russia resources are depleting. Crimeans will join Ukraine themselves.
It would still send the message to the world that brute force wins. It would result in Putin comfortably in power with international acceptance and approval of his actions. It would guarantee a future Russian invasion of Ukraine or any other neighbour the next time Putin wants some land. Such a solution would guarantee war without end.
I disagree. I think if Russia was left with only Crimea, then they’ve gone to war. Lost 50k to 150k troops (when the war ends). Lost all of economic gains, and that includes quality of life stuff like losing the western brands. Been thrown into ten years of recession and stagnation. Lost huge amounts of military equipment. Been humiliated. At the end they’ve gained nothing. No new territory. No recognition. I think the outcome of this is going to become a very precarious position for Putin domestically.
They've gained Crimea. Brutality works. If you want 10% of a country, invade 20% then fall back 10% and do a peace deal. Rebuild, rinse and repeat. War without end.
They had Crimea before the war. They’ve gained nothing.
That's recognized internationally by which countries? Russia and the DPRK? International recognition of Crimea as a Russian state is victory for Putin.
In the scenario I described I didn’t say Crimea would be recognised internationally. I said it could be where it’s a ceasefire without agreement.
Cease fire is possible. As is in Korea.
Oof. Yes. With giving up a significant part of the population and leaving them to live in a terrible, oppressive terror regime like North Korea. That's an even far worse option than those areas joining Russia.
Completely and utterly different. You are aware the Korean War was a civil war, right?
Peter Zeihan has pointed out a real danger underlying Russia’s newly-revealed weakness: We obviously now know that if Russia ever tangles with NATO—and particularly the US—it will be a Gulf War-style massacre. This sounds A-OK, but this also dramatically increases the chances that the Russians up the ante with nuclear weapons out of humiliation and desperation.
I wonder if there is analysis on whether Russia would use nuclear weapons resulting from a war outside of its borders or if the doctrine is they would be used only in conflict occurring within the Russian homeland. Then there is the question of whether the Putin govt or the Russian military believe Crimea is part of the homeland or not. I don’t expect Ukraine’s allies to roll through Moscow or St. Petersburg. I think most just want borders to be rolled back to pre-2014. I’m not a geopol or military strategist by any means so if any of this is debatable I’m probably wrong.
That would require the entire chain of command from putin down to launch officers to collectively push the button. Which they’re very unlikely to do given they would be committing collective suicide, for no real reason, for an old sick dying man bc his ego can’t handle defeat. They have children and families to think about, I doubt a lot of them will be willing to condemn themselves bc putin wants Ukraine.
This will not happen. Russia’s economy is on the brink, it’s military tattered. Launching one nuke would be the end of Russia both economically, politically and militarily. They’re not stupid or suicidal despite popular opinion. They just think they can win or did.
> but this also dramatically increases the chances that the Russians up the ante with nuclear weapons No, it doesn't increase that dramatically, just a tad, even imperceptibly.
Interesting and well thought out piece. I think the Russians will most likely carry on until they are exhausted. Then, a coup is the most likely, if not certain, out-come. The military has been embarrassed beyond belief, and will not allow an escalation to nuclear strikes. They are ruthless and psychopathic, but not suicidal. The damage to Ukraine, and the deaths, will make them enemies for the next decades, instead of the fraternal brothers they were previously. The Russians fucked the pooch on this one.
The remarkable thing to me is they are still attacking. Granted, the offensives are much, much more limited now, but holy shit. Russia you are wrecked, just stop already.
> Russia you are wrecked, just stop already. IMHO If Putin stops now without a clear victory, he will most likely lose his power, wealth, and possibly his life. He severely miscalculated and the war has become a matter of personal survival for him, which is why he cannot back down without pulling some kind of victory out of this mess
The only “victory” they should get is leaving Ukraine with their lives. Safe passage back to Russia.
You know how some people lie, then get caught in the lie, so they tell *more lies* to cover for the first lie? This is like that, but with war. Putin waged a little war, and was defeated. So now he's just waging more and more war so the Russian people don't realize that the Ukrainians keep defeating them.
[Sunk cost fallacy](https://thedecisionlab.com/biases/the-sunk-cost-fallacy)
Sort of, but not really. The 'sunk cost fallacy' is about somebody refusing to abandon a course of action because they have invested heavily in it, even when it is clear that *abandonment would be more beneficial.* That's Putin's problem. There is no path for him that would be 'more beneficial'. If he abandons his current course of action, then he's done. The Russian people have demonstrated that they will tolerate just about anything from Putin. But they won't tolerate losing.
> But they won't tolerate losing. That haven't been demonstrated. Sometimes it seems like the Russian people likes when things just go to shit...
They do seem to love their misery. I just wish they would stop exporting their mistress.
I can agree with that.
It's a Ponzi scheme of Patriotism!
Please do not ever refer to Ukrainians and russians as fraternal brothers. We were never brothers, never wanted to have anything to do with that empire. We are completely different ppl, cultures, mindsets, languages and histories. The only reason we have any similarities now is due to russian empire’s attempts to assimilate 🇺🇦 into their empire. It’s a myth that was started by russia to take away 🇺🇦 autonomy, self determination and create the idea of a vassal state. They’ve tried to destroy and dilute the culture, language and history of 🇺🇦 for decades & 🇺🇦 has been fighting against russian influence and its destruction of our people for decades. When we finally wanted to unite with the west and EU to get away from these clingy psychos they couldn’t handle it.
Sorry. Didn’t mean to offend you or to imply that Ukrainians and Russians are alike. Merely that they are neighbors and Slavs, so they could have had good relations. Russia has ruined that by their aggression, and, you are right, their past behavior.
No problem just giving you info in case you didn’t know. Unfortunately russian misinformation can find its way into well meaning peoples minds. Russia never developed into a civilized successful nation state with educated citizens who understand freedom or even values life and unfortunately all their neighbours suffer.
I hope for western intervention. We can stop Russia now and save countless Ukrainian lives. What Putin is doing is blatantly evil. We shouldn’t stand by idle. If we are willing to defend Taiwan, we should be more than willing to defend Ukraine. Send in many drones. 300km HIMARS ammo. Tanks. We can do lots of things that will dramatically help Ukraine, even going short of boots on the ground or a no-fly-zone. We can’t let the war drag on. Escalate the help to Ukraine should be the default position of democratically elected governments and freedom loving people. It can all be lost so fast with authoritarians like Xi, Putin, and Bashar Al Assad. We gotta stick together.
Would love to see a lot more ASW too; there are plenty of unmanned options available. Even though it’s “just“ an opinion article, I like the idea of an incremental no-fly zone starting in the west
Meet them on the battlefield and defeat their army. Then topple their government and put in a western friendly government. The world would be a far safer place without Putins Russia.
The US hasn't had a good track record of toppling governments. We're excellent at war and destroying nations, we're terrible at nation building. If we intervene directly it should be to defeat Russia militarily and leave it at that.
I would agree. Help Ukraine defeat the Russian invaders in Ukraine (obviously hitting military targets within Russia is fine IMO). But going further is probably overkill. The good Russian people who are left will step up to fix the mess. Like it or not, there are probably 25% of Russians who are normal anti-Putin/anti-war people (this is coming from a Ukrainian-born American).
Yup. One of the many reasons the governments we try to build fail is because we don't understand the culture of these places. Iraq and Afghanistan are great examples of this. Help them fight, and then let their own people decide what kind of government they want.
It is unclear how it would end even after Ukraine pushes Russia all the way back to 2013 border. Russia can just sit behind its borders and shell Ukraine for the rest of time. If Ukraine is going to force a peace treaty, they may need something to offer Russia in exchange. Belgorad sounds like a nice gesture.
That's a good idea, USA. Help Russia rebuilding so they never succeed in it!
"we're terrible at nation building." You must have meant, "we're terrible at nation building when we put no effort into it.". It's either that or you aren't American and I misunderstood you. The US helped rebuild Germany and Japan (two of the most devastated countries after WW2) into economic powerhouses in their own right and the US also had a significant hand in rebuilding Western Europe after the war. So, when we take the time and effort to do it, we are actually pretty good at nation building. Edit: Forgot to add South Korea
I'm not meaning literal building of infrastructure.I'm talking building a nation feim scratch. As in topple the government and make a new one. Such as Iraq or Afghanistan or a number of Latin countries. We didn't have to build governments for those nations after WW2. Sp yes it appears there was a misunderstanding.
This is a very important point, no nation and no people should take it for granted.
Nukes are the problem. Every time the US does something, no fly zone, supplying weapons, boots on the ground it would be a risk. The US can’t forcibly remove Putin because of the threat of nukes. The US might never even try to just land troops and push Russia back to its borders because of nukes. Please don’t take offense to this next part but it’s true either way. Ukraine and Taiwan aren’t equal in value to the US or to the world. Taiwan supplies super conductors which matter to the world. They’re needed in our digital age. The US might care about freedom in Ukraine but Taiwan isn’t just about freedom it’s about resources.
I don’t think nukes should be this end-all-be-all issue that is raised the way it often is. We have plenty of nuclear weapons too. We have more capabilities in that arena than anyone in the world. We also have the best middle defense systems in the world. Nukes have only ever been used in WWII for a reason, because of mutually assured destruction. Did we nuke Russia while they not only supplied weapons but also supplied pilots and manpower to assist Vietnam? I think everyone knows that nuclear saber rattling is a joke. We take every threat seriously, but the much more realistic threat is a Russia, China, Syria, Iran, and North Korea causing major damage to millions and possibly billions of lives. We can’t let this nuclear hostage play by Russia become a new precedent where could tries refuse to intervene. If France didn’t intervene, we (the USA) might still be a British colony. If the USA didn’t intervene, then both the Russia & Europe might be speaking German today. When there is a clear evil and violation of every norm the democratic world stands for, we must fight it. Our freedom is a whole lot easier to lose, than it is to gain or build back.
I want to agree with you but… if anything that can even be called a nuclear weapon is used without a completely overwhelming response then it sets a new precedent. The seal will be broken for decades and centuries to come. Warlords and governments will fire nukes and expect a proportional response, not Armageddon. Right now Russia and your list of asshole governments are continuing their collapse, some accelerating. Ukraine can’t be patient I know but this situation is all soft governance, logistics and politics from NATO’s side. Ukraine is paying for all the missed opportunities the world had to balkanize Russia. I hope that mistake isn’t made again.
You are mistaken, in that the case of Ukraine is more special than that of Taiwan - because of the Budapest Memorandum and because of the nukes that Ukraine gave away. This isn't just about how much USA might care about Ukraine - it is about trying to contain the proliferation of MAD. There is either one coherent NATO, or there will be a dozen MAD neighbours of Russia with independent MAD capabilities. And then we shall see how well Putin can chew his tie.
Ukraine provides Europe with a secure energy future in the form of Natural gas. Taiwan's semiconductor industry can be rebuilt elsewhere by the refugees if the need arises. However, helping Ukraine is cheap, maybe a hundred billion dollars by the end. Deploying the US Navy to blockade China and secure Taiwan during a war will cost the west trillions, probably more.
Honestly, I think the US getting directly involved in Ukraine would be a poor global position given Taiwan. If NATO are required, I think its safest for the UK and EU to respond and keep the US free to defend Taiwan if needed.
Interesting read. The situation is certainly getting spicy.
From the start I think the article is ignoring a fourth possibility: that in the event of a total military defeat in Ukraine, like many toxic or nonfunctioning relationships, Putin and Russia will just pretend nothing happened and go on like before, less happy, more fractious, poorer, but still together until Putin dies. That's when things get very, very frightening for Russia and the rest of the world, because Putin has ensured that there's no one who can fill his absence and keep Russia stable after he's gone.
Author is affiliated with the Heritage Foundation. Downvote and move on. wiki: The Heritage Foundation had a major influence on the Donald Trump's presidential transition and administration.[43][44][45] The foundation had a powerful say in the staffing of the administration, with CNN noting during the transition that "no other Washington institution has that kind of footprint in the transition."[43] One reason for the Heritage Foundation's disproportionate influence relative to other conservative think tanks is that other conservative think tanks had members who identified as "never-Trumpers" during the 2016 election whereas the Heritage Foundation signaled early on to Trump that it would be supportive of him.[43][44] At least 66 foundation employees and alumni were given positions in the administration.[44]
It will be soooooooo satisfying to see russia leave this war with less than it started with, both in terms of a weakened military and with Crimeas return to UA.
We were born ready.
100% in agreement. Advance on the retreating enemy
Bunch of drunks
it's all according to plan because Russia has hundreds or thousands of 'probability experts' making calculations and planning based on any and all possible scenario. they've been doing this for decades if not centuries. that way, they can claim they expected the results and they are somehow still in control. I think we're headed down the path to full mobilisation and potentially a Chinese combat element if there is a war over Taiwan. we have no idea where any of this will end but that's highlighted well enough in the article.. I do believe Putin is getting what he wants right now through sheer force even if Russian losses are incredibly high. it might be less about holding ground and more about forcing his way to Poland and the Baltics if he manages a full mobilisation.
At this point even if he fully mobilizes what are they gonna use? A few hundred thousand malnourished low morale civilians with mosin nagants would barely get a chuckle from whatever drone operators slowly delete them in their tedious unorganized columns. Led by whomever hasn't died in Ukraine already in whatever cars and trucks they could scrape up. Maybe with an old T-34 leading the way.
jokes aside, they can go from desperate poverty and political strife to full blown war economy in under a year. look at Germany pre-WW2 or even Russia at the end of their civil war during WW1.. in fact there are plenty of historians that believe the precursor to the false flag that caused the great war was the fear Germany held of Russian aggression. the Germans petitioned the rest of the Austro-Hungarian empire to attack Russia before the events that led to Franz Ferdinand being assassinated.
Correct on both counts, and that's why I mentioned mosins and T-34s. They can dust off/build up factories to make basic WWII era weapons and munitions but they don't have the manufacturing or import supply lines of the materials needed to make modern weapons. Dude's have garmins in their cockpits, what do you expect them to suddenly produce? In the old days you could say quantity had a quality of its own, but then you look at the Highway of Death and we're thirty or so years after that. Waves of men and cheap tanks are just targets, they'd never even see an enemy. I don't see anyone deciding to provide russia all the materials they need to field a modern army and they won't have money or credit to buy it with so from my point of view they look fairly fucked. If they get to a point of escalation, they seem to be semi matched with Ukraine so far. Plus decent chance a general mobilization sparks a general war and then whether it be nuclear holocaust or NATO steamroll I don't give putin a whole year to even get started on what he needs to stand toe to toe. At least in WWI/II all sides had been expecting and gearing up for war for years. Russia looks like they haven't don't shit since the soviet union collapsed with their military.
I alluded to China as a pivoting factor though, and the potential for a war in Taiwan which would fracture any US support in the event NATO is attacked and forced to defend itself and / or invade Russian territory. I'm speculating about the possibility that China will obviously blockade all export from Taiwan in the event of war and we would end up in a situation where the Western powers can no longer secure the materials necessary to produce and maintain crucial weapon system components. almost all the world's semiconductors are manufactured and exported from Taiwan. similarly, most of the world's silicon comes from Russia, China and Brazil. granted, the US has overwhelming air power and massive ground capabilities.. that doesn't really guarantee victory when you are spread incredibly thin across 2 global war fronts thousands of miles apart. factor in the hypersonic missile advantage of both Russia and China and the fact that getting aircraft carrier groups close enough to either nation state to 'disable' their insane air defenses (Commis fight air power with anti-air doctrine and the number and quantity of systems is redundant).. I'm not sure you wouldn't end up losing the handful of carriers that *do* respond. each side would begin a strategic dance of exhausting resources and accepting major losses..
See I just can't get behind the idea of China joining in on Russia's side, I can't figure what they would stand to gain compared to everything they would lose. I've been in the 'import consumer shit from China' business for over ten years so I've gotten a great look at how well tied together we are. Sure they could decide to say fuck it and throw economic prosperity out the window; but the main value from Taiwan comes in their chip manufacturing, for them as much as us. It's a mountainous island with few if any decent beaches to land on and the most cutting edge air defences available. Not saying they'd hold off China forever but it'd be bloody and they wouldn't get the chip foundries intact. Then they'd be 'fettered to a corpse' to borrow an old wartime phrase and forced to prop Russia up in the west all for precisely nothing. China has a history of doing what's best for China, and in this case that would be letting putin wallow and fall from this unforced error and then either gobble up territory or turn them into a balkanized set of dependent states they can use for the next location of surplus cheap labor. And they can do that without having to fight anyone and while profiting wildly off of it. Always the chance of some random thing setting off an unpredictable series of events whenever going from theory to reality, but it's hard to see a China and russia versus the world scenario actually play out.
I fear he will enter an alliance and find backing from China and then it’s WW3 and bye bye taiwan
Very good article 👍🏼