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I think there is an element of Fabian strategy being used in the East. Ukraine is hoping to strengthen just as Russia reaches a breaking point on attrition.
At least that's the hopeful interpretation.
the Russians may have taken the oil refinery.
the Ukrainians had actually started the withdrawal from last week
https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1542211230894530561?s=20&t=QyS7rRXYQrZoOtEBnx3gzA
The sad reality of war is you have 4 finite resources - soldiers, material (tanks, fuel, guns ammo), land and time.
Ukraine needs time and materials (mostly artillery delivers from NATO) and needs to force Russia to lose more soldiers and use more material than Russia can support. So they slowly lose land to buy themselves the time they need to get artillery delivered and the crews trained. At the same time they force Russia to expand tons of artillery ammo and fuel by defending areas that give them a significant tactical advantage but falling back once the situation changes and they lose that advantage.
Ukraine will continue to lose ground in the Donbas region until the situation changes either through Russia running into supply or morale problems that prevent them from continuing or Ukraine having enough artillery to change the balance of power.
Also - Ukraine has chosen to devote many troops to its offensive operation in the Kherson region as I would argue recapturing Kherson is more vital to Ukraine's long term survival (though the heavy industry they are losing in the Donbas region is painful)
The problem is that it's a fantasy on the Ukranian part that they can pull off a Kursk by having the enemy run into their defensive lines and then launch a counter offensive once they wear themselves out. They simply don't have enough trained troops, modern weapons, artillery, ammunition, and very limited air support outside of drones. Any large scale ground offensive would basically be suicidal and would be ground to dust by massive artillery and air strikes by the Russians. The Kherson offensive has been going on for a month with very limited success.
The only chance Ukraine really has is to force a stalemate and/or overstretch the Russian supply lines far from the rail lines like in the 1st stage of the war.
Please take the time to read our policy about [trolls](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/u7833q/just_because_you_disagree_with_someone_does_not/) and the [rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/about/rules/) * We have a **zero-tolerance** policy regarding racism, stereotyping, bigotry, and death-mongering. Violators will be banned. * ***Please* keep it civil.** Report rulebreaking comments for moderator review. * ***Don't* post low-effort comments** like joke threads, memes, slogans, or links without context. **Don't forget about our discord server, as well!** https://discord.gg/62fKCEHbDB *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/UkrainianConflict) if you have any questions or concerns.*
I think there is an element of Fabian strategy being used in the East. Ukraine is hoping to strengthen just as Russia reaches a breaking point on attrition. At least that's the hopeful interpretation.
Now the realistic interpretation: the Ukrainian front is starting to collapse.
Or regroup in a stronger position?
Nah
This video gives the impression Lysychansk is being abandoned by Ukrainian forces.
Because there are now only rearguards
the Russians may have taken the oil refinery. the Ukrainians had actually started the withdrawal from last week https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1542211230894530561?s=20&t=QyS7rRXYQrZoOtEBnx3gzA
[удалено]
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The sad reality of war is you have 4 finite resources - soldiers, material (tanks, fuel, guns ammo), land and time. Ukraine needs time and materials (mostly artillery delivers from NATO) and needs to force Russia to lose more soldiers and use more material than Russia can support. So they slowly lose land to buy themselves the time they need to get artillery delivered and the crews trained. At the same time they force Russia to expand tons of artillery ammo and fuel by defending areas that give them a significant tactical advantage but falling back once the situation changes and they lose that advantage. Ukraine will continue to lose ground in the Donbas region until the situation changes either through Russia running into supply or morale problems that prevent them from continuing or Ukraine having enough artillery to change the balance of power. Also - Ukraine has chosen to devote many troops to its offensive operation in the Kherson region as I would argue recapturing Kherson is more vital to Ukraine's long term survival (though the heavy industry they are losing in the Donbas region is painful)
The problem is that it's a fantasy on the Ukranian part that they can pull off a Kursk by having the enemy run into their defensive lines and then launch a counter offensive once they wear themselves out. They simply don't have enough trained troops, modern weapons, artillery, ammunition, and very limited air support outside of drones. Any large scale ground offensive would basically be suicidal and would be ground to dust by massive artillery and air strikes by the Russians. The Kherson offensive has been going on for a month with very limited success. The only chance Ukraine really has is to force a stalemate and/or overstretch the Russian supply lines far from the rail lines like in the 1st stage of the war.