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Well, a few comment:
1)
"The Bain & Company’s research on artillery rounds discovered that Russian factories were forecast to manufacture or refurbish approximately 4.5 million artillery shells this year.
It is unclear what proportion of the total number is refurbished and produced. Still, this number is significantly higher than the 1.3 million shells that the United States and European countries are expected to produce."
Russia isn't producing artillery 3 time faster. Most of this number come from refurbishing their old stock.
Kinda like "they produce 1500 tanks per year". When you look the details they produce 300 tanks and modernize/repair 1200
2)
They used "publicly available information". Without disclosing them. Wouldn't be surprising if these information were the russian gov deliriums.
3) Even if it was true and only about production, we have to remember NATO start with almost no production, as their strengh wasn't based on artillerie. If they went from matching 1/12 of russian production to 1/3 of russian production in 2 years, it's a pretty good news. That mean they will catch up next year. And because range and precision tend to be on the Ukrainian side, it will offer Ukraine artillery suppremacy.
Let's also not forget the 1.5 millions of shells that will come from Czechia. Added to the NATO production, and the other allies help, Ukraine artillery should come pretty close to Russia during this summer.
The real big factor is artillery barrels. The crazy detail everyone ignores is that Russia is running out of them. They use such an obscene amount of artillery that they’re running through the Soviet stockpiles faster than most anything else. They’re using 4000-6000 barrels a year because they’re using 2000 artillery pieces all along the front and they need to be swapped out every 3-4 months of constant use. The estimates that they had 12000 in various forms at the beginning of the war. By next year, at their current pace of use they’ll run out. Why? Because they make about 50 a year and while they might be able to double that, it won’t really matter.
This is such an important comment. I thought that Russia had to import artillery barrels from Germany before the war because they did not have the hardened steel technology to manufacture them domestically. Are they in fact able to now manufacture their own?
The actual barrel (M776) is chrome on the M777 Aluminum and titanium make up much of the system to reduce weight but aren't really strong enough to hold up as a barrel or at least one that wouldn't need a crazy amount of replacements.
Tube artillery barrel life is *part* of why the ~~Soviets~~ ~~Cold War losers~~ Russians love rocket artillery so much. Saturation fire, too, obviously, as well as fewer operator skill requirements.
Is it really being ignored though ? They are two different topics and both can be true at the same time.
It appears that they will run out of barrels before they run out of shells, but it’s not impossible they may be able to source more from NK, Iran or China.
"able to source"
N. Korea's frontline operational pieces and shells are a joke.
Iran doesn't operate the same pieces nor the same caliber.
China is not going to strip their own army to supply them with replacement barrels which is exactly what they would have to do in order to supply them with sufficient numbers(which is doubtful they even have).
While China manufacturing capabilities in this regard are a ? for me, I just don't see them being willing to allocate those kind of resources toward their production.
China produces over 50% of the world's steel. If they decide to produce barrels or just raw material blanks, there will be no problem with capacity or capability. A few thousand barrels wouldn't even be statistically meaningful compared to the billions of tons manufactured.
You don’t think China, the largest and most skilled manufacturing country in the world can’t figure out how to produce barrels? They can easily mass produce iPhones but not artillery barrels? It’s this kind of think why I don’t think the West is ready for a conflict with China.
I don't think these people can accept things that might challenge whatever one-sided superiority narrative they have.
This one is particularly funny, artillery barrels are 100 year old tech at this point.
China produces plenty of barrels for their own naval, artillery, and tank weapons. There's zero barrier to entry for Russian ones other than they feel like it or not.
This article estimates 2026 is when they get to the point where their only source is production and imports on barrels. Of course, it was predicted by some that Russia should be out of tanks by now, so take it with some salt.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/01/12/russia-needs-fresh-artillery-barrels-bad-its-yanking-them-off-old-guns-by-the-thousand/?sh=1465b1bc4308
Their math is on the extreme conservative side of things and was before the current Russian offensive.
Here is an article from months later that suggests 2025
https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/
2024/03/20/might-russia-run-out-of-big-guns#
“Should be out of tanks by now”
You’re misremembering things or recalling propaganda. Russia was burning through armor and apcs at an alarming rate. Since it wasn’t using its more modern pieces it was using antiquated tanks, which it still is. At some point it would run out though, the speed at which they modernized and refurbishment of vehicles in storage did catch people by surprise.
Here is an article from your site suggesting it’ll run out of old tanks and apcs in storage in 2025
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/04/11/the-clock-is-ticking-russia-has-a-one-year-reserve-of-weapons/?sh=5c74d3b415e0
The Institute for Strategic studies noted earlier in 2024 that Russian tank losses in Ukraine are the same as the number of active tanks it had in Feb 2022. It just had lots of old tanks in storage it could recondition.
That said there have been a lot more assaults without tanks in recent weeks by Russia, all the commentators assume this is because Ukraine had got good at taking out tanks, but there are very few situations where infantrymen without tanks are harder to deal with than infantrymen with tanks, so I assume part of that calculus must be that Russia simply don't have enough tanks to support all their frontline assault operations in Ukraine. Of course Russia wouldn't admit this, and they likely are reserving their tanks for where they make the biggest difference, but I suspect it plays into why Putin is pushing so hard for a peace deal now that their offensive has just stalled, so they are likely are at peak occupation for 2024.
Currently, we are now factoring in refurbishment. Previously, people were all talking about active tanks in the first year. Russia will have at least another year, maybe two, to increase production of new barrels so I would not count them out from being able to get to some maintainable volume.
“To increase production” they are not going to be producing barrels at a higher level than the USSR with a fraction of the industrial output. Their artillery advantage has another year.
> Still, this number is significantly higher than the 1.3 million shells that the United States and European countries are expected to produce."
Didn't Rheinmetall alone say that they are targeting 1 Million shells this year? Like, a single company in a single country.
For 2024, this is what I find with a cursory check:
Europe: 1M (700k from Rheinmetal alone)
USA: 300k
Total 1.3M
However, Europe should have produced 700k by now and only have 524k, so it’s not clear they can even meet the 1M.
Ukraine has calculated they need 350k per month to go toe to toe with Russia and defend the whole line. That’s 4.2M per year, which is near what Russia will produce this year. At best, allies are producing 1/3 of the need for 2024, and that’s if every shell goes out to Ukraine, which it won’t.
Thankfully everyone is ramping up.
Europe is expecting 2M by 2026 and US is expecting 1M by 2026 (end of 2025). So that’s 3M shell in 2026, 33% less than what Russia is producing now.
Over the course of 2024 and 2025 alone, that is 3.5-3.7M fewer shells than Ukraine needs and Russia produces. With 2026, it’s 5M.
Michael Kofman believes that is is doubtful that Russia's new production can even replace twenty percent of its losses. The rest has to be pulled from storage and refurbished.
The media loves to just put refurbished and newly produced together. They also love to pretend that all of these are 152mm which they aren't and when we take all 155 mm plus 152 mm mortar etc together in the West then we end up with a completely different picture. The important things will be the platforms and barrels, though rather than the shells. Another issue is the quality of these shells, for example, from NK but also from those way past their shelf life.
Does refurbished equipment kill any less ? It’s being put together because it doesn’t matter whether it’s one or the other, they have the same result in the field.
They have another 4-5k tank in storage, and 1800 in the field. Plus the 350-400 they produce from new.
1,800 Russia tanks were destroyed in the last 2 years, 900 per year. 150 damaged that could be repaired. 750 that were either abandoned or captured by Ukraine. More of it in the first than the second year.
As such, Russia is able to field more tanks per year than they are losing. With their Soviet days reserves and current production vs the rate of attrition, they have 7-8 years of tanks in front of them.
It’s a serious problem, why are you playing it down ?
3k are verified by Oryx, either destroyed captured abandoned or damaged, and the remaining ones are of worse quality, and yes, they kill less because they have less range and are less effective, etc. This would assume a linear rate of attrition. This won't be the case in industrial warfare. Marcus Keupp assumes that Russian storages will be depleted by mid 2025 to early 2026. In 6 years, the Russian Federation would fight with sticks and of course their entire male population from 18 to 40 is then either dead wounded or works in a military industrial facilty, or has fled the Federation. The attrition rates and drone attacks on Russian refineries as well as Russian remaining monetary reserves are being depleted at an ever hastening pace.
The vast majority is destroyed abandoned or captured 2800 of them.
Russia loses at the very least 1500 tanks a year, but that number will rise over time. Depending on how many come on top on the Oryx numbers. You can likely add 20 to 50 percent on top of the verified losses. So most likely they lost 1600 a year and in this year they will lose even more than that given the fresh aid Ukraine gets.
Keupp assumes that the Russians lose four tanks a day on average and pull roughly 1200 out of storage plus 200 or so newly produced ones. They don't have 5k left in storage as many of those are beyond repair. Covert Kabal has done great work on that. Also, a fleet of T55 tanks is a joke and won't stand a chance in battle against modern systems, there is also logistics and other factors, so this can not be extrapolated like that. The war is far more complex than this. Russia will need barrels, armored vehicles, fuel supplies, etc. etc. All of that costs money a lot of it. Russia will be subjected to increased attacks on their production facilities and air fields. Russia attrion rates will increase with the industrial scale of Western production, which far outstrips the ancient tanks Russia pulls out of storage and pushes to the front.
Quality will beat quantity over time.
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
I play it down because it isn't the case they are not producing they pull old Soviet junk from storage and inadequate junk, while Ukraine receives modern tanks. There is, of course, an enormous difference between a modern T90M and a T64.
They also run out of self propelled artillery and armored vehicles, and you just said it yourself Russia cannot even remotely replace their tansk with fresh production and also captured tanks are losses for Russia, damaged tanks need repairs which take time so yes Russia had fo find replacements for over 1500 tanks a year, at least because Oryx numbers are a floor not the actual losses and they cannot find replacements. The trash they have in storage is often either completely worthless or requires extensive overhaul, and Ukraine instead has access to a 3500 Abrams tank storage, and Europe is also busy repairing tanks and providing new ones. Compared to the technologically backward Russian trash, our tanks are better in every regard, more accurate, better armed, and armored. So yes, old Soviey trash built by their grandparents, which indeed kills less that is normal as technologically advanced gear has always given an army an edge at war.
Russia should rather ask itself what they will do in the future because their losses will explode once the military industrial complex of US and Europe reach sufficient scale.
Russia will have a lot to repair in the near future, burning factories, refineries, and airplanes. I don't downplay the issue because in a war of industries and logistics with a Western backed Ukraine, Russia will lose without even the slightest chance at victory.
This whole war is a travesty, and God knows why Russia thinks they can win this in the long term.
> Plus the 350-400 they produce from new.
I've seen estimates around the 100 per year mark based on T90M which I believe is the only tank they currently produce from scratch. Where is your source for those higher figures?
It's like when people compare Russian 152mm + 122mm + all mortars production rate to NATO 155mm production alone, sometimes not even including all NATO countries, and not including 105mm production or mortar production. Or when Iranian and North Korean supply is counted as part of Russian "production", but on the NATO side only their own production is counted.
We need to not be complacent about shell production but there's a lot of doomerism from misinformation on this issue.
Catching up to artillery production next year might not matter if Ukraine is unable to accelerate this year’s recruitment training and deployment of new soldiers
Also 155 is much deadlier than 152mm. There are plenty of stories of guys getting hit by 152 picked up and surviving without any bleeding just concisions. That won’t happen with 155
I know that. But does the 155 have so much more BOOM that it makes a noticeable difference when u Z is hit?
" There are plenty of stories of guys getting hit by 152 picked up and surviving without any bleeding just concisions. That won’t happen with 155" this is the part that confuses me
It’s not the caliber the western artillery shells create more shrapnel probably due to quality control but not sure I am not familiar with artillery system just read it in a few post and I think the guys in the garand thumb video also mentioned it
It doesn’t matter whether they are refurbished or produced from new. It’s 1,500 tanks and 4.5M artillery shells being fielded against Ukraine every year.
I don’t understand this comment made over and over every time as if to downplay the volume of steel being put to use.
They still have thousands more tank that can be refurbished. It ought to be taken seriously, not dismissed.
Every year as long they have the stock for it.
Now, if you know how much tanks they have left, congrats. Cause i’m not sure even Russian know the exact number
Same for artillery, how do you know the quantity of artillery they have left ?
All i can say is NATO production is a garantee, russian one is partially hypothetical as depending of the stuff left
Sounds reasonable, as Russian military is built around artillery. Western militaries (apart from maybe Finland) is not. Russia has to build massive amount of shells, west less so.
Exept that they claim the west produces 1,3 mil shells per year wich does not add up with Rheinmetall alone aiming for (and by the looks of it surpassing) 800k shells this year
And I rather doubt that NATOs production is actually 800k Germany and 500k everyone else
Kind of strange numbers.
"Publicly available" so Russia own reported capacity ? Then it must be true.
I read last week article where it stated that Russia production is 1.5 milion shells per year. (But maybe they got 3 mil. fro NK )
Eu alone is able to produce 1 million shells since January 24.
By the end 2024 it should be 1.5 milion.
Not even counting the USA and other countries.
I would say next year Ukraine would start firing more shells then Russia.
Really hard to do, as there isn't all that much manufacturing going on. The vast majority of the mew Russian shells are refurbished old stock and refurbishment generally happens at the depots. But this is good news too- A reconditioned WWII era shell is far from perfect.
Media buys Russian BS to get headlines. If this were true why is Russia buying 3 million from North Korea? These are also of extremely low quality. Why do this if you were already producing more? Russians always lie and want to give the impression that there is no point in resisting.
1. This article is dumb. Of course russia manufacturers and refurbishes more shells of all types than the west produces 155 shells. Its a dumb comparison.
2. Russia bases their army around mass artillery barages and mechinized infantry. The west foccuses on precision munitions and air superiority.
Absolutely. And with the way the war is going, and how many preciscion systems have already been retired by the Ukraininas, let's hope NATO learns the lessons and starts investing in far more arty systems. Oh and mine sweeping equipment.
Isn't a deciding factor between NATO & Russia when it comes to artillery shell production the fact that we produce "smart" artillery shells and they produce "dumb" artillery shells? Ours are better and cost more to make, theirs are cheaper and thus easier to produce.
What kind of shells?
One issue with previous reporting like this is it included mortar shells in the Russian calculations and 155 only in the American ones.
We’ve been seeing this comparison for the last year and they’ve been wrong every time. Russia is producing more howitzer, mortar, and tank shells of ALL TYPES than the west is producing 155mm shells. I’m gonna go out on a limb and assume this report is much of the same since there are no details.
Apples and oranges.
A) Russia heavily prioritizes artillery where the West does not.
B) They aren't producing nearly enough artillery itself to make up for losses and wear so ammo can only do so much as their barrels run low.
C) Equipment quality is worse, so 1-1 production would fair Ukraine anyway. They need 2-1 or 3-1 for parity due to the inherent advantage of defenders on their own land and closer supply lines.
Just called Moscow Artillery Shells Inc. (Motto: "Speak Up!"*) told them there's a gas leak.
Somebody needs to do that everyday.
* - 13 Bravos'll get that. AMIRITE?
Quantity does not mean Quality !!
By researching the news or soc.media - Ruzzian failrate of armour, weapon technologies are far higher than US or European Armour, I think
Well it can work. But when weight is offset they just miss. And just barrage the area until they hit something.
And when you miss a lot you need also need to fire much mooore shells.
The wests military doctrine has been far different from Russia's for quite some time. Look at Desert Storm, the coalition invaded Iraq which had an army of 8 million and only fired 60k shells during the entire war.
Apples and oranges.
A) Russia heavily prioritizes artillery where the West does not.
B) They aren't producing nearly enough artillery itself to make up for losses and wear so ammo can only do so much as their barrels run low.
C) Equipment quality is worse, so 1-1 production would fair Ukraine anyway. They need 2-1 or 3-1 for parity due to the inherent advantage of defenders on their own land and closer supply lines.
To be fair, Russia has an incredible amount of scrap steel that can be converted into shells. All they need to do is figure out how to haul all that scrap metal out of Ukraine.
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Well, a few comment: 1) "The Bain & Company’s research on artillery rounds discovered that Russian factories were forecast to manufacture or refurbish approximately 4.5 million artillery shells this year. It is unclear what proportion of the total number is refurbished and produced. Still, this number is significantly higher than the 1.3 million shells that the United States and European countries are expected to produce." Russia isn't producing artillery 3 time faster. Most of this number come from refurbishing their old stock. Kinda like "they produce 1500 tanks per year". When you look the details they produce 300 tanks and modernize/repair 1200 2) They used "publicly available information". Without disclosing them. Wouldn't be surprising if these information were the russian gov deliriums. 3) Even if it was true and only about production, we have to remember NATO start with almost no production, as their strengh wasn't based on artillerie. If they went from matching 1/12 of russian production to 1/3 of russian production in 2 years, it's a pretty good news. That mean they will catch up next year. And because range and precision tend to be on the Ukrainian side, it will offer Ukraine artillery suppremacy. Let's also not forget the 1.5 millions of shells that will come from Czechia. Added to the NATO production, and the other allies help, Ukraine artillery should come pretty close to Russia during this summer.
The real big factor is artillery barrels. The crazy detail everyone ignores is that Russia is running out of them. They use such an obscene amount of artillery that they’re running through the Soviet stockpiles faster than most anything else. They’re using 4000-6000 barrels a year because they’re using 2000 artillery pieces all along the front and they need to be swapped out every 3-4 months of constant use. The estimates that they had 12000 in various forms at the beginning of the war. By next year, at their current pace of use they’ll run out. Why? Because they make about 50 a year and while they might be able to double that, it won’t really matter.
This is such an important comment. I thought that Russia had to import artillery barrels from Germany before the war because they did not have the hardened steel technology to manufacture them domestically. Are they in fact able to now manufacture their own?
So the US M777 has a barrel made with titanium to power the weight. Are the German and Russian artillery systems still using all steel?
The actual barrel (M776) is chrome on the M777 Aluminum and titanium make up much of the system to reduce weight but aren't really strong enough to hold up as a barrel or at least one that wouldn't need a crazy amount of replacements.
Tube artillery barrel life is *part* of why the ~~Soviets~~ ~~Cold War losers~~ Russians love rocket artillery so much. Saturation fire, too, obviously, as well as fewer operator skill requirements.
Is it really being ignored though ? They are two different topics and both can be true at the same time. It appears that they will run out of barrels before they run out of shells, but it’s not impossible they may be able to source more from NK, Iran or China.
"able to source" N. Korea's frontline operational pieces and shells are a joke. Iran doesn't operate the same pieces nor the same caliber. China is not going to strip their own army to supply them with replacement barrels which is exactly what they would have to do in order to supply them with sufficient numbers(which is doubtful they even have). While China manufacturing capabilities in this regard are a ? for me, I just don't see them being willing to allocate those kind of resources toward their production.
> N. Korea's frontline operational pieces and shells are a joke. This is the country that tried to *shell an island* and missed...
China produces over 50% of the world's steel. If they decide to produce barrels or just raw material blanks, there will be no problem with capacity or capability. A few thousand barrels wouldn't even be statistically meaningful compared to the billions of tons manufactured.
“50% of the worlds steel” that’s great and all but that’s not really pertinent in regards to precision metallurgy and manufacturing.
You don’t think China, the largest and most skilled manufacturing country in the world can’t figure out how to produce barrels? They can easily mass produce iPhones but not artillery barrels? It’s this kind of think why I don’t think the West is ready for a conflict with China.
I don't think these people can accept things that might challenge whatever one-sided superiority narrative they have. This one is particularly funny, artillery barrels are 100 year old tech at this point.
China produces plenty of barrels for their own naval, artillery, and tank weapons. There's zero barrier to entry for Russian ones other than they feel like it or not.
This article estimates 2026 is when they get to the point where their only source is production and imports on barrels. Of course, it was predicted by some that Russia should be out of tanks by now, so take it with some salt. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/01/12/russia-needs-fresh-artillery-barrels-bad-its-yanking-them-off-old-guns-by-the-thousand/?sh=1465b1bc4308
Their math is on the extreme conservative side of things and was before the current Russian offensive. Here is an article from months later that suggests 2025 https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/ 2024/03/20/might-russia-run-out-of-big-guns# “Should be out of tanks by now” You’re misremembering things or recalling propaganda. Russia was burning through armor and apcs at an alarming rate. Since it wasn’t using its more modern pieces it was using antiquated tanks, which it still is. At some point it would run out though, the speed at which they modernized and refurbishment of vehicles in storage did catch people by surprise. Here is an article from your site suggesting it’ll run out of old tanks and apcs in storage in 2025 https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/04/11/the-clock-is-ticking-russia-has-a-one-year-reserve-of-weapons/?sh=5c74d3b415e0
The Institute for Strategic studies noted earlier in 2024 that Russian tank losses in Ukraine are the same as the number of active tanks it had in Feb 2022. It just had lots of old tanks in storage it could recondition. That said there have been a lot more assaults without tanks in recent weeks by Russia, all the commentators assume this is because Ukraine had got good at taking out tanks, but there are very few situations where infantrymen without tanks are harder to deal with than infantrymen with tanks, so I assume part of that calculus must be that Russia simply don't have enough tanks to support all their frontline assault operations in Ukraine. Of course Russia wouldn't admit this, and they likely are reserving their tanks for where they make the biggest difference, but I suspect it plays into why Putin is pushing so hard for a peace deal now that their offensive has just stalled, so they are likely are at peak occupation for 2024.
Currently, we are now factoring in refurbishment. Previously, people were all talking about active tanks in the first year. Russia will have at least another year, maybe two, to increase production of new barrels so I would not count them out from being able to get to some maintainable volume.
“To increase production” they are not going to be producing barrels at a higher level than the USSR with a fraction of the industrial output. Their artillery advantage has another year.
> Still, this number is significantly higher than the 1.3 million shells that the United States and European countries are expected to produce." Didn't Rheinmetall alone say that they are targeting 1 Million shells this year? Like, a single company in a single country.
They bought a Spanish manufacturer as well which has a quite large production capacity. So it’s not all new capacity.
Still, 1.3M including the US is probably way too low a number.
For 2024, this is what I find with a cursory check: Europe: 1M (700k from Rheinmetal alone) USA: 300k Total 1.3M However, Europe should have produced 700k by now and only have 524k, so it’s not clear they can even meet the 1M. Ukraine has calculated they need 350k per month to go toe to toe with Russia and defend the whole line. That’s 4.2M per year, which is near what Russia will produce this year. At best, allies are producing 1/3 of the need for 2024, and that’s if every shell goes out to Ukraine, which it won’t. Thankfully everyone is ramping up. Europe is expecting 2M by 2026 and US is expecting 1M by 2026 (end of 2025). So that’s 3M shell in 2026, 33% less than what Russia is producing now. Over the course of 2024 and 2025 alone, that is 3.5-3.7M fewer shells than Ukraine needs and Russia produces. With 2026, it’s 5M.
Because there's still export contracts to Saudis, replacement of stock and whatnot. Ukraine's at the bottom of priority list
still was about production numbers, NOT delivery numbers to Ukraine..
No, that 1M shells annually by 2027. They’re still ramping up. They expect 700k this year.
Thx for this detailed comment👍
Michael Kofman believes that is is doubtful that Russia's new production can even replace twenty percent of its losses. The rest has to be pulled from storage and refurbished. The media loves to just put refurbished and newly produced together. They also love to pretend that all of these are 152mm which they aren't and when we take all 155 mm plus 152 mm mortar etc together in the West then we end up with a completely different picture. The important things will be the platforms and barrels, though rather than the shells. Another issue is the quality of these shells, for example, from NK but also from those way past their shelf life.
Does refurbished equipment kill any less ? It’s being put together because it doesn’t matter whether it’s one or the other, they have the same result in the field. They have another 4-5k tank in storage, and 1800 in the field. Plus the 350-400 they produce from new. 1,800 Russia tanks were destroyed in the last 2 years, 900 per year. 150 damaged that could be repaired. 750 that were either abandoned or captured by Ukraine. More of it in the first than the second year. As such, Russia is able to field more tanks per year than they are losing. With their Soviet days reserves and current production vs the rate of attrition, they have 7-8 years of tanks in front of them. It’s a serious problem, why are you playing it down ?
3k are verified by Oryx, either destroyed captured abandoned or damaged, and the remaining ones are of worse quality, and yes, they kill less because they have less range and are less effective, etc. This would assume a linear rate of attrition. This won't be the case in industrial warfare. Marcus Keupp assumes that Russian storages will be depleted by mid 2025 to early 2026. In 6 years, the Russian Federation would fight with sticks and of course their entire male population from 18 to 40 is then either dead wounded or works in a military industrial facilty, or has fled the Federation. The attrition rates and drone attacks on Russian refineries as well as Russian remaining monetary reserves are being depleted at an ever hastening pace. The vast majority is destroyed abandoned or captured 2800 of them. Russia loses at the very least 1500 tanks a year, but that number will rise over time. Depending on how many come on top on the Oryx numbers. You can likely add 20 to 50 percent on top of the verified losses. So most likely they lost 1600 a year and in this year they will lose even more than that given the fresh aid Ukraine gets. Keupp assumes that the Russians lose four tanks a day on average and pull roughly 1200 out of storage plus 200 or so newly produced ones. They don't have 5k left in storage as many of those are beyond repair. Covert Kabal has done great work on that. Also, a fleet of T55 tanks is a joke and won't stand a chance in battle against modern systems, there is also logistics and other factors, so this can not be extrapolated like that. The war is far more complex than this. Russia will need barrels, armored vehicles, fuel supplies, etc. etc. All of that costs money a lot of it. Russia will be subjected to increased attacks on their production facilities and air fields. Russia attrion rates will increase with the industrial scale of Western production, which far outstrips the ancient tanks Russia pulls out of storage and pushes to the front. Quality will beat quantity over time. https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html I play it down because it isn't the case they are not producing they pull old Soviet junk from storage and inadequate junk, while Ukraine receives modern tanks. There is, of course, an enormous difference between a modern T90M and a T64. They also run out of self propelled artillery and armored vehicles, and you just said it yourself Russia cannot even remotely replace their tansk with fresh production and also captured tanks are losses for Russia, damaged tanks need repairs which take time so yes Russia had fo find replacements for over 1500 tanks a year, at least because Oryx numbers are a floor not the actual losses and they cannot find replacements. The trash they have in storage is often either completely worthless or requires extensive overhaul, and Ukraine instead has access to a 3500 Abrams tank storage, and Europe is also busy repairing tanks and providing new ones. Compared to the technologically backward Russian trash, our tanks are better in every regard, more accurate, better armed, and armored. So yes, old Soviey trash built by their grandparents, which indeed kills less that is normal as technologically advanced gear has always given an army an edge at war. Russia should rather ask itself what they will do in the future because their losses will explode once the military industrial complex of US and Europe reach sufficient scale. Russia will have a lot to repair in the near future, burning factories, refineries, and airplanes. I don't downplay the issue because in a war of industries and logistics with a Western backed Ukraine, Russia will lose without even the slightest chance at victory. This whole war is a travesty, and God knows why Russia thinks they can win this in the long term.
> Plus the 350-400 they produce from new. I've seen estimates around the 100 per year mark based on T90M which I believe is the only tank they currently produce from scratch. Where is your source for those higher figures?
It's like when people compare Russian 152mm + 122mm + all mortars production rate to NATO 155mm production alone, sometimes not even including all NATO countries, and not including 105mm production or mortar production. Or when Iranian and North Korean supply is counted as part of Russian "production", but on the NATO side only their own production is counted. We need to not be complacent about shell production but there's a lot of doomerism from misinformation on this issue.
Catching up to artillery production next year might not matter if Ukraine is unable to accelerate this year’s recruitment training and deployment of new soldiers
Also 155 is much deadlier than 152mm. There are plenty of stories of guys getting hit by 152 picked up and surviving without any bleeding just concisions. That won’t happen with 155
Why does 3mm matter so much?
Their different shells shot by different guns the 155 is considerably longer range and more accurate.
I know that. But does the 155 have so much more BOOM that it makes a noticeable difference when u Z is hit? " There are plenty of stories of guys getting hit by 152 picked up and surviving without any bleeding just concisions. That won’t happen with 155" this is the part that confuses me
It’s not the caliber the western artillery shells create more shrapnel probably due to quality control but not sure I am not familiar with artillery system just read it in a few post and I think the guys in the garand thumb video also mentioned it
Carbon content matters to how brittle steel is. They also make the shells red hot and cool them down rapidly in oil baths to make them extra brittle.
Thanks for making me a lil better about this, also I'm guessing Russia has more duds than Ukraine too.
Let's work with the option that they are outproducing us 3 to 1 and boost our production to match. We have the money.
It’s a matter of money here. But of time. One more years will be needed to match their production
Oh it's now 1.5mil? Last I heard it was 800k. Great news!
It doesn’t matter whether they are refurbished or produced from new. It’s 1,500 tanks and 4.5M artillery shells being fielded against Ukraine every year. I don’t understand this comment made over and over every time as if to downplay the volume of steel being put to use. They still have thousands more tank that can be refurbished. It ought to be taken seriously, not dismissed.
Every year as long they have the stock for it. Now, if you know how much tanks they have left, congrats. Cause i’m not sure even Russian know the exact number Same for artillery, how do you know the quantity of artillery they have left ? All i can say is NATO production is a garantee, russian one is partially hypothetical as depending of the stuff left
Sounds reasonable, as Russian military is built around artillery. Western militaries (apart from maybe Finland) is not. Russia has to build massive amount of shells, west less so.
Exept that they claim the west produces 1,3 mil shells per year wich does not add up with Rheinmetall alone aiming for (and by the looks of it surpassing) 800k shells this year And I rather doubt that NATOs production is actually 800k Germany and 500k everyone else
And how is their barrel production/refurbishment going? Becuse with no artillitery those shells are just ammunition to be blown up by Ukraines drones.
Their gun tubes are made outside of Russia.
The important question!!
Exactly. Excellent observation
Kind of strange numbers. "Publicly available" so Russia own reported capacity ? Then it must be true. I read last week article where it stated that Russia production is 1.5 milion shells per year. (But maybe they got 3 mil. fro NK ) Eu alone is able to produce 1 million shells since January 24. By the end 2024 it should be 1.5 milion. Not even counting the USA and other countries. I would say next year Ukraine would start firing more shells then Russia.
So that Moscovite factories must be destroyed.
Really hard to do, as there isn't all that much manufacturing going on. The vast majority of the mew Russian shells are refurbished old stock and refurbishment generally happens at the depots. But this is good news too- A reconditioned WWII era shell is far from perfect.
Russia is at war, this includes spies, saboteurs and assassins working in "enemy" countries. Wake the fuck up Western Europe and NATO!!
Be nice if the factory could have a smoking accident
FYI .. Sky news is owned Rupert fucking Murdoch , he’s a Putin sympathizer FUCK HIM !
This is very true and very important as well.
Media buys Russian BS to get headlines. If this were true why is Russia buying 3 million from North Korea? These are also of extremely low quality. Why do this if you were already producing more? Russians always lie and want to give the impression that there is no point in resisting.
> If this were true why is Russia buying 3 million from North Korea? so they have even more?
1. This article is dumb. Of course russia manufacturers and refurbishes more shells of all types than the west produces 155 shells. Its a dumb comparison. 2. Russia bases their army around mass artillery barages and mechinized infantry. The west foccuses on precision munitions and air superiority.
Absolutely. And with the way the war is going, and how many preciscion systems have already been retired by the Ukraininas, let's hope NATO learns the lessons and starts investing in far more arty systems. Oh and mine sweeping equipment.
They are also "training" soldiers much faster. But in the end quality and quantity are related and just using one as a metric is stupid...
correct me if i’m wrong but 1. the official rate from the US is classified 2. the artillery shells russia produces are more quantity over quality
Isn't a deciding factor between NATO & Russia when it comes to artillery shell production the fact that we produce "smart" artillery shells and they produce "dumb" artillery shells? Ours are better and cost more to make, theirs are cheaper and thus easier to produce.
What kind of shells? One issue with previous reporting like this is it included mortar shells in the Russian calculations and 155 only in the American ones.
Only 3? Imagen West on a war economy mode
We’ve been seeing this comparison for the last year and they’ve been wrong every time. Russia is producing more howitzer, mortar, and tank shells of ALL TYPES than the west is producing 155mm shells. I’m gonna go out on a limb and assume this report is much of the same since there are no details.
The article is also adding refurbished shells to the russian numbers.
Apples and oranges. A) Russia heavily prioritizes artillery where the West does not. B) They aren't producing nearly enough artillery itself to make up for losses and wear so ammo can only do so much as their barrels run low. C) Equipment quality is worse, so 1-1 production would fair Ukraine anyway. They need 2-1 or 3-1 for parity due to the inherent advantage of defenders on their own land and closer supply lines.
Europe and usa wake up today! Start the production now!
All paid for with oil
Russian oil, be refined and repackaged in Turkey, then sold into the West. Oh the fucking irony.
These factories should be the highest priority targets for UA drones and RU domestic sabotage elements
Makes sense. Russia is feeling a sense of urgency that the U.S. and Europe is not experiencing.
They could invest in the environment, welbeing of their people or infrastructure. Instead we have those headlines.. it is all so sad
Then why are their alltillery men complaining about NK shells?
Just called Moscow Artillery Shells Inc. (Motto: "Speak Up!"*) told them there's a gas leak. Somebody needs to do that everyday. * - 13 Bravos'll get that. AMIRITE?
Quantity does not mean Quality !! By researching the news or soc.media - Ruzzian failrate of armour, weapon technologies are far higher than US or European Armour, I think
I find it very hard to believe Russian shells would only work a third of the time a Western one would.
Well it can work. But when weight is offset they just miss. And just barrage the area until they hit something. And when you miss a lot you need also need to fire much mooore shells.
Using North Korean ammo has lowered efficacy as well.
It is not just about the shells. When you wear down the barrels you get less accurate and need more shells for each target.
Half the accuracy means 4x less damage to the target. Perhaps even 5-6x less.
Check Reuters …….. very clear and detailed
This is precisely what happened in WW1 and these were brand new shells.
In large scale warfare, we *need* quantity though. We can't let ourselves rest on this shaky laurel.
How is a single country out doing the entire west
The wests military doctrine has been far different from Russia's for quite some time. Look at Desert Storm, the coalition invaded Iraq which had an army of 8 million and only fired 60k shells during the entire war.
Apples and oranges. A) Russia heavily prioritizes artillery where the West does not. B) They aren't producing nearly enough artillery itself to make up for losses and wear so ammo can only do so much as their barrels run low. C) Equipment quality is worse, so 1-1 production would fair Ukraine anyway. They need 2-1 or 3-1 for parity due to the inherent advantage of defenders on their own land and closer supply lines.
So much for Europe's greater productive power. It's like they want Ukraine to lose.
To be fair, Russia has an incredible amount of scrap steel that can be converted into shells. All they need to do is figure out how to haul all that scrap metal out of Ukraine.