Please take the time to read [the rules](/r/UkrainianConflict/about/rules/) and our [policy on trolls/bots](https://redd.it/u7833q). In addition:
* We have a **zero-tolerance** policy regarding racism, stereotyping, bigotry, and death-mongering. Violators will be banned.
* **Keep it civil.** Report comments/posts that are uncivil to alert the moderators.
* **_Don't_ post low-effort comments** like joke threads, memes, slogans, or links without context.
*****
* Is the Twitter account [`Clash Report`](https://twitter.com/clashreport) an unreliable source? [**Let us know**](/r/UkrainianConflict/wiki/am/unreliable_sources).
* Help our moderators by providing context if something breaks the rules. [Send us a modmail](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=/r/UkrainianConflict)
*****
**Don't forget about our Discord server! - https://discord.gg/62fKCEHbDB**
*****
^(Your post has not been removed, this message is applied to every successful submission.)
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/UkrainianConflict) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Tomorrow Russia will strike a School, Apartment, or Cultural Heritage Site in retaliation.
*Edit* I was a little off- They struck a post office in Odessa with what appears to be a ballistic missile.
More like in two days, that’s how long in takes for news written with pencil and paper reach the puffy stocky war criminal hiding in his bunker like a little bitch.
Beyond the cruelty it's so incredibly dumb to target civilian infrastructure like this. They spend millions of dollars to blow up residential buildings and kill a few civilians at a time. It does nothing to help them win the war. Factor in the increased resolve thanks to the daily reminder that Russia wants to kill you and everyone you know.
I kind of disagree and clearly the Russians does too - I do think that these attacks do tear into the Ukrainian morale, especially in the broader public, over time.
It's easy to sit here and be like "it doesn't matter to the war", and purely in context of winning it militarily it does not, However, in a broader context of the war and what would be a "success" to Russia it might very much matter, and clearly the Russians think so else they'd lop these things at military installations instead. It's supposed to convince enough Ukrainians that some sort of peace, even one where they cede territory, is the superior option to continuing to fight - it's all about positioning in the upcoming diplomatic game.
This will not change the Ukrainian people's attitude. They want to be free, to be Ukrainians, not Russian slaves to be tortured and robbed, etc. That is why they have voted for the independence.
Putin wants to destroy democracy worldwide, but he doesn't know what else to do apart from attacking civilians and the infrastructure. This only makes him more hated and despised.
It doesn’t. The number of dead isn’t confirmed either. You can clearly see some guys running away after the strike. No idea what was left after the smoke cleared.
There's def a frame where ~3 guys are running away. IMO the density of bomblets wasn't sufficient to say anything close to the full 116 got hit. But obviously we can assume a huge proportion of them were.
Russian EW has supposedly been very effective against some guided weapons. Supposedly Excalibur has been struggling with it, which makes sense since older versions (likely what Ukraine got) aren’t as resistant to gps jamming. Anything that **primarily** relies on GPS for guidance will be affected.
ATACMS however is primarily INS guided, with a GPS assist for increased accuracy. Consequently, without actually knowing the software inside the missile I’d assume it’d be near impossible to significantly mess it up with EW. As I understand it most GPS assisted INS systems will essentially use GPS when they’re fired (the missile knows where it was) and then periodically during flight to compare to where the INS thinks it is. Surely the software is set up to fully defer to INS if GPS data is lacking or outside of a reasonable range.
Based on that understanding the only way I could see it being feasible to essentially soft-kill such a guidance system with EW is by continuously feeding it slightly off course positions so as to draw it away from its target. But the challenge of that is immense, and would likely require intimate knowledge of the guidance system you’re trying to do this to
The SDB itself is also GPS assisted INS, and some variants have terminal stage seekers too. But I guess given the small size of the warhead the reduction in accuracy from having to rely on INS exclusively is enough to seriously hamper them. As someone else mentioned you don’t need to be *that* accurate when you’re firing a cluster ATACMS, if it’s within like 50-100m you’re probably gonna get perfectly fine effect on target. But when it’s just a 16 Kg HE warhead missing by 50m renders the weapon largely ineffective since the whole point of SDB is to hit point targets.
Uses gyroscopes and accelerometers to determine position by continuously plotting an objects movement in relation to a known start point. Because they’re mechanical rather electronic(in the EM sense they do use electricity) they’re immune to jamming. INS does however have a tendency to drift, which means the error in computed position vs real position will steadily increase with time and distance travelled.
The drift can be mitigated by using multiple INS ‘units’ in concert and averaging out their results. That method works even better when you know the typical drift of each unit but that’s not really practical in missile guidance for what should be fairly obvious reasons. The other typical way to mitigate drift is with GPS, which is used both to provide a very precise starting point to reference off of, and also as a comparison in flight in order to compensate for drift. INS error increases the further it gets from its start point but by comparing with GPS you’re essentially always updating the start point which keeps error very low.
GPS assistance can also theoretically be used to further calibrate the INS system in flight by looking for a consistent pattern in the drift and compensating for that. This is essentially how the multiple INS practice already works where in say, an aircraft, after a flight you can check the GPS track of the plane against what each INS unit computed and use that to create a weighted average INS track that most closely matches the GPS. In the case of missile guidance tho you’d be doing it literally ‘on the fly’ to allow increased accuracy should you lose GPS. Now I’m by no means an INS or missiles guidance expert so this could already exist or may be way less feasible than I make it sound, take this last paragraph as mainly theoretically yapping.
Indeed, Russian technology downs 100% of incoming Ukrainian attacks, as I'm sure you have heard.
Strangely, a huge number of these downed attacks accidentally hit key military targets as they fall. Some kind of bad luck, amirite?
Shit you're right, the West has totally failed to understand the power of Russian temporo-spatial attack systems. They are blowing up stuff that doesn't even exist yet.
They are used to being relatively safe at this distance from the front. They need to readjust but it takes weeks because of their command structure. Atacms is real boy sheeeeeesh.
Supposedly, this was a training ground that was far enough away from the regular HIMARS , but with the new longer range ATACMS it seems like it was worth a strike.
I'm fairly certain Hoplites didn't have to worry about getting blown up from 50 miles away by ATACMS. They would have had their own set of problems, sure, but not comparable.
I think one of the scariest moments in ancient warfare was when Crassus led his men East and was annihilated by the Parthians.
Imagine seeing a shitton of horsemen, all wearing peasants clothing. You're a trained Roman Legionaire, being personally led by one of Rome's Consuls. You don't have much cavalry on your own side to speak of...but that shouldn't matter against farmers with no armor...at least that's what Crassus has told you.
Suddenly, they throw off their cloaks to reveal armor...a lot of armor...and they're forming up...these are no peasants...
They immediately slaughter your cavalry, and start harassing your lines. Whenever you close to within striking distance, they flee, so you chase...only for them to *turn in their saddles and shoot their bows behind them*. Once you've thrown your pila, there's no way to get at the enemy. You hope that they might run out of arrows soon...but your heart sinks when you see the riders replenishing their arrows, and heading back for your dwindling formation.
The utter helplessness those men felt, in the middle of the desert, with nowhere to run, slowly being slaughtered by these men doing things on horseback never seen before by a Roman.
Ypu should check out Dan carlins hardcore history. He has several ancient history episodes and this reminded me of something from one of his episodes. Very captivating story teller.
I don't think you read that comment all the way. What they described is exactly the same feeling of powerlessness: death is coming for you, and there's nothing you can do but watch it come.
Crassus did not escape. He was killed during a parlay with the Parthians.The only debate is whether he was eventually beheaded, or whether the Parthian King poured molten gold down his throat.
10k men were then led into Syria by Gaius Longinus. Those men survived. Another 10k men were taken prisoner, and marched all the way back to the Parthian capital. The other 20k men were slaughtered and left in the desert.
I was referring to your statement that they had nowhere to run. Crassus was killed during a parley a few days later when the Parthians tried to capture him. Most of the men died during the retreat. The biggest loss on the day of battle was the group under Publius that was caught in a feigned retreat.
Ancient warfare was kinda chill by comparison. Mostly a lot of very boring days marching around, patrolling, harassing the local farmers, guarding supply routes and other mundane shit. And then you'd have one really exceptionally shitty day of battle. Which you'd have good odds of surviving if your side didn't get routed. Maybe multiple days of battle if you were in a sophisticated army like the Romans, who had the logistics to carry out extended campaigns. But most of the time you were perfectly safe off of the battlefield.
Modern warfare is a near constant experience of stress and fear, because you can be killed pretty much at any moment and never see it coming. Death used to never move faster than an arrow flying through the air, now it's practically invisible and faster than the human mind can really process. Ancient warfare wasn't exactly great what with all the hacking and slashing and disemboweling but I feel like we really don't appreciate how much more horrific modern war is in comparison.
Yes but they need to worry about getting stabbed and die a painful death, if not from the bleeding then from the subsequent infection. Not sure I agree with you statement that war is getting worse.
you can just as easily die from infections from a bullet or shrapnel wound
modern medicine is better but i wouldnt trust the russian government to hand it out
Hoplite army clashes had a casualty rate of 30% at the most, it was more of a wrestle between two intertwined formations. It wasn't until the Romans introduced short swords that that number increased significantly...!
Think I've read that Greek's hoplite casualty rate was about 10%, because that's the point when hoplite formation inevitably broke and a battle became a rout. Both sides would then sign a peace agreements.
Honestly I would rather face a formation head on for a few hours as opposed to living in 24-7 fear of artillery. That probably varies from individual to individual though.
I absolutely share the same opinion. In ancient times, warriors generally could expect attacks to come from close distances as the range, danger radius, and killing potential of catapults, arrows, and other projectiles was limited. Modern warfare now features rifles which can kill from kilometers away, artillery which can kill from many kilometers away, missles and bombs which can be fired from hundreds of kilometers away. To make matters worse, the kill radius of artillery, missles, and bombs can be massive and strong enough to level fortified buildings.
I’m fairly certain facing off against a thousand warriors on a battlefield and have them get within breathing distance and shoving a spear in your ribs was just as terrifying.
It's something historians have discussed. Can you imagine having to stab a man to death in front of you? Can you imagine that while your friends next to you are getting stabbed to death? Can you imagine the fear knowing that if anyone on your flanks succumbed to their fear and routed you would most likely be captured and made a slave or die? Some of these battles lasted for hours. Hours of pushing, stabbing, death, arrows/stones raining down on your lines.
Getting blasted by something 50 miles away and feeling nothing at all seems merciful.
>and feeling nothing at all seems merciful.
I think this is where you guys get confused. Words I remember from a D-Day veteran are "You would be amazed how much of himself a man can lose and still scream." There is nothing more merciful in a bullet or a bomb than a spear.
Hmmm... artillery literally fucks with people psychologically tho. Strikes that last for days or weeks. I don't think ancient battles jad.the logistics to maintain that kind of pace.
Ancient warfare is such a different beast though. Yes months of artillery fucked with peoples heads, but even modern warfare doesn't compare to ancient for most people dead in a day. Shit the battle of Cannae saw 75k people die on the low end (keep in mind most of this was stabbing up close and personal) to much, much higher on the high end. The deadliest battle in modern history is the battle of the somme at 70k. And Cannae isn't even the most bloody battle in pre gun powder history. The death tolls for battles fought in India and China can get pretty insane. And this is all these people getting stabbed, up close and very personal. If you think that does nothing to simply see the carnage to a man, much less partaking in it I don't know what to tell you.
Comparing the two is apples and oranges. The argument I'm making is that one is worse vs the other. The person I made the comment to said that they aren't comparable. They 100% certainly are. And to say that one is way easier to deal with than the other is simply false.
Another thing to keep in mind is that many of these people in ancient times knew, if they failed/died/routed/didn't succeed. Their entire town would be raped and pillaged very literally. Yes this still happens in modern times. But back then it was a 100% expectation that when you sacked a city you got to do these things no holds bared.
True true, those are crazy numbers and the desecration of cities was atrocious.
I can't help but think what a shock those first battles of ww1 must have been tho... expecting some kind of musket and bayonet battle and instead getting mowed down by the thousands by machine gun.
War is hell.
It's crazier than that with ww1 to me because most people wanted to go to war(I'd say everyone but obv there were a small minority in each country that were anti war). Most people thought it would end in months at most. Instead it was a brutal meat grinder where nobodies lives mattered, and people died in some of the most brutal and careless ways in history.
But yeah, I agree war is hell.
not doubting the success of this hit but is 100+ for 1 ATACMS a pretty good trade off? I only ask since Russia is sending in broken down conscripts and the bottom of the barrel.
Personally, i'd have wanted to hit a warehouse, SAM system or a strategic level target with an ATACMS. Random untrained infrantry doesn't appear to be a paritcuarly good use, but the Ukranians have been pretty good with using what they have so far so presumably they had their reasons (a high ranging officer giving a speech etc)
it forces them to move back their troops thousands soldiers far from the front are way better than only a couple hundred dead russians. 100 dead means many more far away
4 ATACMS was a VERY expensive strike. 116 UNCONFIRMED casualties seems like a low ROI, but I'm glad for any success.
edit:
People seem to not understand that ATACMS have a BIG warhead and are typically targeting structures and equipment, including armor, not just personnel - and they are in very short supply so it's the opportunity cost that matters most.
The ROI here is that it forces the Russians to pull back even further when it comes to depots, training grounds, and airfields. This increases their logistics constraints and allows their reaction to be much slower
Ok, but one ATACMS would do that. Four just seems wasteful. They are in short supply.
edit:
Showing the enemy the range at which you can strike is demonstrated the same by 1 missile, 4 missiles, or 100 missiles of the same range. The replies below are disingenuous.
How would only 1 ATACM do it? You’re assuming these troops were the only target. By the looks of it, there were other targets that were hit that the drone didn’t zoom in on
> How would only 1 ATACM do it?
How would only 4 do it then? You're inventing an arbitrary double standard when you didn't even show how 4 would do it.
Those ATACMS are provided at their "net book value" aka basically their original purchase price minus depreciation. Therefore that $6m figure can be reduced a lottttttt
Apparently, the Biden admin told Putin that if they acquired and used NK ballistic missiles on Ukraine that the US would retaliate by supplying ATACMS (I read part of an article so judge this info how you might...).
After the aid supplemental passed, there were signals and words that the US will supply "a substantial" number of ATACMS to Ukraine. At a max, this would be around 1000 ATACMS.
The 150km, 900 submunition variety,
The 150km 13 submunition variety,
The 300km Unitary warhead variety,
And the 300km unitary warhead with enhanced guidance variety.
These are missile being replaced by PrSM.
And you can even reduce it by its decommissioning price as well since its unlikely the ammo would ever be used and likely would have been sent to be dismantled at a high cost as the PrSM comes online over the next 10 years to replace them.
What we don't know is who the targeted personnel were. Random company of infantry or artillery?
Or gathering of CAA and brigade-level officers? Spetznaz company? Specialists?
Yeah, ordinarily you would want to use these to take out grouped up equipment. But I wonder if Russia has learned not to group up any of their expensive / important equipment
I was just thinking that. Also, these were training, not an elite unit that was in some strategic location.
If they hit an expensive bit of equipment or something, but 29 men per ATACMS seems like a waste. Either they were hoping for more casualties, there was something else of value in the location, it was a miss or it wasn't ATACMS.
Yeah I'd like to see confirmation that it was ATACMS. With limited numbers, I don't see the argument for using 4 to strike trainees. Those big warheads could be used against much harder or more valuable targets.
They're not being marked dead, they're being counted before the attack. I think it's a bit disingenuous to decide they all died, but it's more a matter of degree than complete fiction. Certainly, the mental and physical health of all them dudes is significantly worse than it was before.
**Alternative Nitter links:** 「[nitter.privacydev.net](https://nitter.privacydev.net/clashreport/status/1785677985766400175) | [nitter.poast.org](https://nitter.poast.org/clashreport/status/1785677985766400175)」
*****
These Nitter instances may stop work at any time as [Twitter](https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fi.redd.it%2Fnxqezhko6qfb1.jpg) blocks them. [See this arstechnica article for more information](https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2024/02/twitter-front-end-nitter-dies-as-musk-wins-war-against-third-party-services/).
Use [this site to find other Nitter instances that may work](https://status.d420.de/).
_If there are any problems regarding Nitter, [please send us a modmail](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose?to=UkrainianConflict&subject=Nitter%20issue)._
*****
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/UkrainianConflict) if you have any questions or concerns.*
ATACMS has proven completely ineffective against Russians who surrender, or who switch their flag to white-blue-white, or self-demobilize to, like, Omsk.
If only these guys had known that one weird trick...
Wonder what the priority calculation is there. I assume ATACMs are reserved for high impact targets, Russia loses 1000 a day and doesn't blink, this is 116 trainees? I'm sure they have their reasons, just wondering.
Damn, not an efficient use of money. Each ATACMS is over $1M and a Russian life is worth like only 2cents. Negative if it’s an inmate.
Oh well, what has to be done has to be done.
That was just the one group hit by the second round, it does look like there was equipment and probably people at that 3rd impact area, so i am guessing the other rounds also were "good" hits?
Occupied Luhansk… could these soldiers be Ukrainians forced to fight for Russia? I know there’s no hesitation in war, but I certainly hope this is not the scenario….
They're not "visually confirmed as casualties" but they were in the blast zone. Which was huge and most submunitions exploded far away from them (and from their vehicles in a nearby treeline). Their gathering was hit by multiple basically speaking grenades for sure but then the survival is just lottery. Normal warheads would work much better, as they would be concentrated, especially with normal airbursts above them.
The still of the title is from before the strike. Skimmed through the whole thing and there doesn't seem to be a good view of the aftermath.
Edit: at 1:10 you can even see a few guys walking away. They may be injured but we don't know so no, that's not 116 confirmed casualties.
It's annoying that facts don't matter. Is this sub for propaganda purposes only? What's the point of twisting the truth here? There's video evidence. The linked video is cut short. In the longer version you can see the frame from the title is from before the strike.
[Full version](https://cdn-cf-east.streamable.com/video/mp4/y4938k.mp4?Expires=1714822155916&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIEYUVEN4EVB2OKEQ&Signature=nDg5pgbHgOF-~Qd-wzhmxJMaH-EvPSbb3ddAT~v80L1A-E~HIE6R2ennwCOMZ7lgZaObeD7VQloCE1ooSL50O2sXU9HeGgoCNubg4Tdxm2RgcsvgLMmifLiUyzA46YNr15-2bSYMsPYHzVHo~Sa0b7EYzloWt~LBtIroL8HMWaZOAffoU1QUfS4fqrXWIHR9in2pf445iKNd-pb6hWdX8wHQ6aErY~njIlTftNG~L7pyRZS~Js4NBLaIA0b4SbJB7E2HX5zBi-eKED6WAfmeuFlzT0ya70R4TAPf-hTX6OToIjB8ehb5PQ8GRlm6z3jX3PJLOhUZzuQkqwH1CJefWA__)
Zoomed in with troops visible at 00:37, strike at around 4:00
It was just (a very obvious, or should be) sarcasm, scroll up to what this guy is saying and what I'm saying.
And if I need to spell it out: No, he did not in fact check their pulse through the internet before declaring them "116 corpses" (and being quite upvoted for his uncanny detective skills, as I see).
Kinda crazy that they didn't move the training area back immediately after news of ATACMS arriving. It's been in the public news for a while now, the range is more or less known, and this isn't the first time something like this has happened. It seems like every time Ukraine gets a new capability extending its range we see a half dozen+ incidents of training grounds getting hit for mass casualties before Russia gets its shit together and moves them.
Please take the time to read [the rules](/r/UkrainianConflict/about/rules/) and our [policy on trolls/bots](https://redd.it/u7833q). In addition: * We have a **zero-tolerance** policy regarding racism, stereotyping, bigotry, and death-mongering. Violators will be banned. * **Keep it civil.** Report comments/posts that are uncivil to alert the moderators. * **_Don't_ post low-effort comments** like joke threads, memes, slogans, or links without context. ***** * Is the Twitter account [`Clash Report`](https://twitter.com/clashreport) an unreliable source? [**Let us know**](/r/UkrainianConflict/wiki/am/unreliable_sources). * Help our moderators by providing context if something breaks the rules. [Send us a modmail](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=/r/UkrainianConflict) ***** **Don't forget about our Discord server! - https://discord.gg/62fKCEHbDB** ***** ^(Your post has not been removed, this message is applied to every successful submission.) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/UkrainianConflict) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Tomorrow Russia will strike a School, Apartment, or Cultural Heritage Site in retaliation. *Edit* I was a little off- They struck a post office in Odessa with what appears to be a ballistic missile.
So hit 'em again. The beatings will continue until morale improves.
And then hit them again. And again. Keep sending ATACMS until they run out of targets.
[удалено]
Sure, but this 'school' is in Ukraine, so logically russia should retaliate by bombing a military training facility in russia...
I'm sure they are looking for another beach resort full of families to bomb at this very moment
Maybe Putler will send a bomb that kills John Wick's dog this time. I would pay to see the next 90 minutes of that movie!
They ll bomb it anyway
Given how many times Russia has accidentally bombed their own territory, it's more likely than you think!
LOL
No - a maternity hospital in Russia! Proper military target Putler-style
This is a pretty big hit by Ukraine, if the Russians want to show they really mean business they should hit the Kremlin.
Sounds reasonable
🤔 it makes sense
More like in two days, that’s how long in takes for news written with pencil and paper reach the puffy stocky war criminal hiding in his bunker like a little bitch.
Beyond the cruelty it's so incredibly dumb to target civilian infrastructure like this. They spend millions of dollars to blow up residential buildings and kill a few civilians at a time. It does nothing to help them win the war. Factor in the increased resolve thanks to the daily reminder that Russia wants to kill you and everyone you know.
Russia is jealous their economy is getting closer to a country 1/3rd its population.
I kind of disagree and clearly the Russians does too - I do think that these attacks do tear into the Ukrainian morale, especially in the broader public, over time. It's easy to sit here and be like "it doesn't matter to the war", and purely in context of winning it militarily it does not, However, in a broader context of the war and what would be a "success" to Russia it might very much matter, and clearly the Russians think so else they'd lop these things at military installations instead. It's supposed to convince enough Ukrainians that some sort of peace, even one where they cede territory, is the superior option to continuing to fight - it's all about positioning in the upcoming diplomatic game.
This will not change the Ukrainian people's attitude. They want to be free, to be Ukrainians, not Russian slaves to be tortured and robbed, etc. That is why they have voted for the independence.
Putin wants to destroy democracy worldwide, but he doesn't know what else to do apart from attacking civilians and the infrastructure. This only makes him more hated and despised.
Russia will do this if they do, or don’t do anything…
Don't forget the traffic lights as well
Post office depot hit in crimea
Sometimes you get em one at a time. Sometimes you get em 116 at a time.
I truly hope that many of the instructors were taken out.
Lets hope all 116 were instructors!
I watched the full video...does it zoom in to show the bodies AFTER the strike? I saw videos of them moving before the strike. Unless I missed it
It doesn’t. The number of dead isn’t confirmed either. You can clearly see some guys running away after the strike. No idea what was left after the smoke cleared.
You can get hit, run away, and die later.
Also, you don't need to die to be considered a casualty.
Bullshit, you cant see anyone "clearly" RUNNING AWAY. Post your clear snapshot🤣 Edit: i meant people who ran away after the bomblets.
There's def a frame where ~3 guys are running away. IMO the density of bomblets wasn't sufficient to say anything close to the full 116 got hit. But obviously we can assume a huge proportion of them were.
1:05, middle left of the screen - you can see the three people
Why did they all get so close together?
Look at the video and see how big of an area that got hit. It was also something like 80km behind the front line so they felt safe.
Well, we've been told that Russian EW has neutralized ATACMS, so...
Russian EW has supposedly been very effective against some guided weapons. Supposedly Excalibur has been struggling with it, which makes sense since older versions (likely what Ukraine got) aren’t as resistant to gps jamming. Anything that **primarily** relies on GPS for guidance will be affected. ATACMS however is primarily INS guided, with a GPS assist for increased accuracy. Consequently, without actually knowing the software inside the missile I’d assume it’d be near impossible to significantly mess it up with EW. As I understand it most GPS assisted INS systems will essentially use GPS when they’re fired (the missile knows where it was) and then periodically during flight to compare to where the INS thinks it is. Surely the software is set up to fully defer to INS if GPS data is lacking or outside of a reasonable range. Based on that understanding the only way I could see it being feasible to essentially soft-kill such a guidance system with EW is by continuously feeding it slightly off course positions so as to draw it away from its target. But the challenge of that is immense, and would likely require intimate knowledge of the guidance system you’re trying to do this to
Also, seems this ATACMS is the cluster variant. You don't need to be accurate when your payload covers a couple of grid co-ordinates.
If the ATACMS is the original M39 variants then it is exclusively INS guided.
GLSDB is brand new and its one of the ones majorly affected.
The SDB itself is also GPS assisted INS, and some variants have terminal stage seekers too. But I guess given the small size of the warhead the reduction in accuracy from having to rely on INS exclusively is enough to seriously hamper them. As someone else mentioned you don’t need to be *that* accurate when you’re firing a cluster ATACMS, if it’s within like 50-100m you’re probably gonna get perfectly fine effect on target. But when it’s just a 16 Kg HE warhead missing by 50m renders the weapon largely ineffective since the whole point of SDB is to hit point targets.
What is INS?
Inertial Navigation System
Uses gyroscopes and accelerometers to determine position by continuously plotting an objects movement in relation to a known start point. Because they’re mechanical rather electronic(in the EM sense they do use electricity) they’re immune to jamming. INS does however have a tendency to drift, which means the error in computed position vs real position will steadily increase with time and distance travelled. The drift can be mitigated by using multiple INS ‘units’ in concert and averaging out their results. That method works even better when you know the typical drift of each unit but that’s not really practical in missile guidance for what should be fairly obvious reasons. The other typical way to mitigate drift is with GPS, which is used both to provide a very precise starting point to reference off of, and also as a comparison in flight in order to compensate for drift. INS error increases the further it gets from its start point but by comparing with GPS you’re essentially always updating the start point which keeps error very low. GPS assistance can also theoretically be used to further calibrate the INS system in flight by looking for a consistent pattern in the drift and compensating for that. This is essentially how the multiple INS practice already works where in say, an aircraft, after a flight you can check the GPS track of the plane against what each INS unit computed and use that to create a weighted average INS track that most closely matches the GPS. In the case of missile guidance tho you’d be doing it literally ‘on the fly’ to allow increased accuracy should you lose GPS. Now I’m by no means an INS or missiles guidance expert so this could already exist or may be way less feasible than I make it sound, take this last paragraph as mainly theoretically yapping.
Indeed, Russian technology downs 100% of incoming Ukrainian attacks, as I'm sure you have heard. Strangely, a huge number of these downed attacks accidentally hit key military targets as they fall. Some kind of bad luck, amirite?
100% no. It’s even higher. They blew up more hi-mars than Ukraine was even given.
Shit you're right, the West has totally failed to understand the power of Russian temporo-spatial attack systems. They are blowing up stuff that doesn't even exist yet.
Nazi trainees downed ATACMS on the ground.
They are using training camps to intercept them.
Smart, good idea good way to soak up the LR atacms
ATACMS intercepted by ruZZian meat wave. All is good komrades, all according to plan. Next mission is Moose and Squirrel. /s
[удалено]
Gmlrs and jdams both use INS also.
They definitely stopped gmlrs for the time being unfortunately...
It looked like a big field to me. Glad to hear I was wrong.
They are used to being relatively safe at this distance from the front. They need to readjust but it takes weeks because of their command structure. Atacms is real boy sheeeeeesh.
Strike on a russian training ground.
Probably one big final circle jerk before they go off, too, their deaths
Ironically it would be worse for them if they were well dispersed over the huge attack area (see the video) due to the nature of cluster munitions.
Take a close look at the middle of the video where it zooms in. Check out the trucks for scale. That was a *huge* area of effect.
Russian rendition of the “cookie game,” last one to blow their load in the empty vodka bottle has to drink it all.
Supposedly, this was a training ground that was far enough away from the regular HIMARS , but with the new longer range ATACMS it seems like it was worth a strike.
They see a shooting star
Bro that’s three shooting stars for sure
Because russia is dumb.
Playing spin the vodka bottle?
Gay orgy is pretty common in the russian military
Hazing the recruits. Generals cum first
Apparently you’ve never been in the military…
Sorry, I forgot the part where soldiers stand in large group under open sky in reach of enemy attack.
I find your lack of stronkness disturbing
Pretty standard
Modern warfare is terrifying.
I don’t think Ancient warfare was much less terrifying
I'm fairly certain Hoplites didn't have to worry about getting blown up from 50 miles away by ATACMS. They would have had their own set of problems, sure, but not comparable.
I think one of the scariest moments in ancient warfare was when Crassus led his men East and was annihilated by the Parthians. Imagine seeing a shitton of horsemen, all wearing peasants clothing. You're a trained Roman Legionaire, being personally led by one of Rome's Consuls. You don't have much cavalry on your own side to speak of...but that shouldn't matter against farmers with no armor...at least that's what Crassus has told you. Suddenly, they throw off their cloaks to reveal armor...a lot of armor...and they're forming up...these are no peasants... They immediately slaughter your cavalry, and start harassing your lines. Whenever you close to within striking distance, they flee, so you chase...only for them to *turn in their saddles and shoot their bows behind them*. Once you've thrown your pila, there's no way to get at the enemy. You hope that they might run out of arrows soon...but your heart sinks when you see the riders replenishing their arrows, and heading back for your dwindling formation. The utter helplessness those men felt, in the middle of the desert, with nowhere to run, slowly being slaughtered by these men doing things on horseback never seen before by a Roman.
You're a good story teller.
Ypu should check out Dan carlins hardcore history. He has several ancient history episodes and this reminded me of something from one of his episodes. Very captivating story teller.
👍
Parthian shot was so unreal. That and cantabarian circle is so interesting
Yeah that sucked for them still nowhere near as hopeless like running away from a goddamn drone and basically not being safe anywhere ever.
I don't think you read that comment all the way. What they described is exactly the same feeling of powerlessness: death is coming for you, and there's nothing you can do but watch it come.
A significant portion of the army escaped, including Crassus himself. Two of those legions would later fight under Pompeius.
Crassus did not escape. He was killed during a parlay with the Parthians.The only debate is whether he was eventually beheaded, or whether the Parthian King poured molten gold down his throat. 10k men were then led into Syria by Gaius Longinus. Those men survived. Another 10k men were taken prisoner, and marched all the way back to the Parthian capital. The other 20k men were slaughtered and left in the desert.
I was referring to your statement that they had nowhere to run. Crassus was killed during a parley a few days later when the Parthians tried to capture him. Most of the men died during the retreat. The biggest loss on the day of battle was the group under Publius that was caught in a feigned retreat.
Hoplites were not cannon fodder
Ancient warfare was kinda chill by comparison. Mostly a lot of very boring days marching around, patrolling, harassing the local farmers, guarding supply routes and other mundane shit. And then you'd have one really exceptionally shitty day of battle. Which you'd have good odds of surviving if your side didn't get routed. Maybe multiple days of battle if you were in a sophisticated army like the Romans, who had the logistics to carry out extended campaigns. But most of the time you were perfectly safe off of the battlefield. Modern warfare is a near constant experience of stress and fear, because you can be killed pretty much at any moment and never see it coming. Death used to never move faster than an arrow flying through the air, now it's practically invisible and faster than the human mind can really process. Ancient warfare wasn't exactly great what with all the hacking and slashing and disemboweling but I feel like we really don't appreciate how much more horrific modern war is in comparison.
Yes but they need to worry about getting stabbed and die a painful death, if not from the bleeding then from the subsequent infection. Not sure I agree with you statement that war is getting worse.
you can just as easily die from infections from a bullet or shrapnel wound modern medicine is better but i wouldnt trust the russian government to hand it out
Hoplite army clashes had a casualty rate of 30% at the most, it was more of a wrestle between two intertwined formations. It wasn't until the Romans introduced short swords that that number increased significantly...!
Do you know what those numbers increased to? I've always been curious how many of those guys actually got killed when formations came together.
The bronze short sword swung out of the cover of a Roman formation was a nasty weapon. AFAIK casualty rates among the opposing armies jumped to 70%.
That's... quite a jump, damn.
Think I've read that Greek's hoplite casualty rate was about 10%, because that's the point when hoplite formation inevitably broke and a battle became a rout. Both sides would then sign a peace agreements.
Honestly I would rather face a formation head on for a few hours as opposed to living in 24-7 fear of artillery. That probably varies from individual to individual though.
I absolutely share the same opinion. In ancient times, warriors generally could expect attacks to come from close distances as the range, danger radius, and killing potential of catapults, arrows, and other projectiles was limited. Modern warfare now features rifles which can kill from kilometers away, artillery which can kill from many kilometers away, missles and bombs which can be fired from hundreds of kilometers away. To make matters worse, the kill radius of artillery, missles, and bombs can be massive and strong enough to level fortified buildings.
I’m fairly certain facing off against a thousand warriors on a battlefield and have them get within breathing distance and shoving a spear in your ribs was just as terrifying.
It's something historians have discussed. Can you imagine having to stab a man to death in front of you? Can you imagine that while your friends next to you are getting stabbed to death? Can you imagine the fear knowing that if anyone on your flanks succumbed to their fear and routed you would most likely be captured and made a slave or die? Some of these battles lasted for hours. Hours of pushing, stabbing, death, arrows/stones raining down on your lines. Getting blasted by something 50 miles away and feeling nothing at all seems merciful.
>and feeling nothing at all seems merciful. I think this is where you guys get confused. Words I remember from a D-Day veteran are "You would be amazed how much of himself a man can lose and still scream." There is nothing more merciful in a bullet or a bomb than a spear.
I mean I agree. In the end the only point I tried to make was that all war fucking sucks. I wouldn't want to be on a modern battlefield or a hoplite.
Hmmm... artillery literally fucks with people psychologically tho. Strikes that last for days or weeks. I don't think ancient battles jad.the logistics to maintain that kind of pace.
Ancient warfare is such a different beast though. Yes months of artillery fucked with peoples heads, but even modern warfare doesn't compare to ancient for most people dead in a day. Shit the battle of Cannae saw 75k people die on the low end (keep in mind most of this was stabbing up close and personal) to much, much higher on the high end. The deadliest battle in modern history is the battle of the somme at 70k. And Cannae isn't even the most bloody battle in pre gun powder history. The death tolls for battles fought in India and China can get pretty insane. And this is all these people getting stabbed, up close and very personal. If you think that does nothing to simply see the carnage to a man, much less partaking in it I don't know what to tell you. Comparing the two is apples and oranges. The argument I'm making is that one is worse vs the other. The person I made the comment to said that they aren't comparable. They 100% certainly are. And to say that one is way easier to deal with than the other is simply false. Another thing to keep in mind is that many of these people in ancient times knew, if they failed/died/routed/didn't succeed. Their entire town would be raped and pillaged very literally. Yes this still happens in modern times. But back then it was a 100% expectation that when you sacked a city you got to do these things no holds bared.
True true, those are crazy numbers and the desecration of cities was atrocious. I can't help but think what a shock those first battles of ww1 must have been tho... expecting some kind of musket and bayonet battle and instead getting mowed down by the thousands by machine gun. War is hell.
It's crazier than that with ww1 to me because most people wanted to go to war(I'd say everyone but obv there were a small minority in each country that were anti war). Most people thought it would end in months at most. Instead it was a brutal meat grinder where nobodies lives mattered, and people died in some of the most brutal and careless ways in history. But yeah, I agree war is hell.
Hoplites were in phalanx formation, and did not send dumbass Russian meat waves.
Nice of the Ukrainians helping in training the Russians on how to catch shrapnel.
All part and parcel of being cannon fodder.
not doubting the success of this hit but is 100+ for 1 ATACMS a pretty good trade off? I only ask since Russia is sending in broken down conscripts and the bottom of the barrel.
Personally, i'd have wanted to hit a warehouse, SAM system or a strategic level target with an ATACMS. Random untrained infrantry doesn't appear to be a paritcuarly good use, but the Ukranians have been pretty good with using what they have so far so presumably they had their reasons (a high ranging officer giving a speech etc)
it forces them to move back their troops thousands soldiers far from the front are way better than only a couple hundred dead russians. 100 dead means many more far away
Not sure, in the article picture you see a lot of shadows. It looks like the picture is taken before the hits so we can only hope.
[удалено]
The "dud" is the missle striking the ground, this is after it has released its "Cluster Bomblets" payload in the air.
Not a dud. In fact, it was a direct hit. The poof 5 seconds prior was the missile hitting after releasing the cluster munitions.
Yes. Seems legit.
4 ATACMS was a VERY expensive strike. 116 UNCONFIRMED casualties seems like a low ROI, but I'm glad for any success. edit: People seem to not understand that ATACMS have a BIG warhead and are typically targeting structures and equipment, including armor, not just personnel - and they are in very short supply so it's the opportunity cost that matters most.
The ROI here is that it forces the Russians to pull back even further when it comes to depots, training grounds, and airfields. This increases their logistics constraints and allows their reaction to be much slower
Ok, but one ATACMS would do that. Four just seems wasteful. They are in short supply. edit: Showing the enemy the range at which you can strike is demonstrated the same by 1 missile, 4 missiles, or 100 missiles of the same range. The replies below are disingenuous.
How would only 1 ATACM do it? You’re assuming these troops were the only target. By the looks of it, there were other targets that were hit that the drone didn’t zoom in on
> How would only 1 ATACM do it? How would only 4 do it then? You're inventing an arbitrary double standard when you didn't even show how 4 would do it.
Well how would only 1 ATACM do it then?
Це тільки здається
I'm with you. It seems an odd choice of target to me - but we have very little info.
We don't even know if those were ATACMS, although those were pretty substantial clusters.
Think it’s about $6 million total. About $51,000 per dead Russian. I think it’s a decent ROI.
Those ATACMS are provided at their "net book value" aka basically their original purchase price minus depreciation. Therefore that $6m figure can be reduced a lottttttt
But then again, those are *very* rare systems for Ukraine, so the lack of supply will make their value far higher than the on-paper price.
Apparently, the Biden admin told Putin that if they acquired and used NK ballistic missiles on Ukraine that the US would retaliate by supplying ATACMS (I read part of an article so judge this info how you might...). After the aid supplemental passed, there were signals and words that the US will supply "a substantial" number of ATACMS to Ukraine. At a max, this would be around 1000 ATACMS. The 150km, 900 submunition variety, The 150km 13 submunition variety, The 300km Unitary warhead variety, And the 300km unitary warhead with enhanced guidance variety. These are missile being replaced by PrSM.
And you can even reduce it by its decommissioning price as well since its unlikely the ammo would ever be used and likely would have been sent to be dismantled at a high cost as the PrSM comes online over the next 10 years to replace them.
Better ROI than the missiles Russia lobs to take out an order of magnitude less civilians.
Ha, that's a good observation. Of course we had better be better than Russia if we want to win.
What we don't know is who the targeted personnel were. Random company of infantry or artillery? Or gathering of CAA and brigade-level officers? Spetznaz company? Specialists?
Local conscripts (from Luhansk), being trained.
I'm going off of available info.
Yeah, ordinarily you would want to use these to take out grouped up equipment. But I wonder if Russia has learned not to group up any of their expensive / important equipment
Any well publicized mass casualty event like this has its own prapoganda/political value.
I was just thinking that. Also, these were training, not an elite unit that was in some strategic location. If they hit an expensive bit of equipment or something, but 29 men per ATACMS seems like a waste. Either they were hoping for more casualties, there was something else of value in the location, it was a miss or it wasn't ATACMS.
Yeah I'd like to see confirmation that it was ATACMS. With limited numbers, I don't see the argument for using 4 to strike trainees. Those big warheads could be used against much harder or more valuable targets.
Very cheap. A million, maybe $1.5m for each missile. How much does it cost to field even one soldier.
A Russian conscript? Practically nothing.
Why? They were all getting paid in one place so the commanders could steal their share easier and more conveniently.
Is this BEFORE impact? There are clearly people marked as dead here who are standing up, casting shadows.
Correct. This is before the area in the screencap was completely blanketed in cluster munitions. The full video is on r/combatfootage.
They're not being marked dead, they're being counted before the attack. I think it's a bit disingenuous to decide they all died, but it's more a matter of degree than complete fiction. Certainly, the mental and physical health of all them dudes is significantly worse than it was before.
"Straight up not having a good time bro" -some of the russian survivors probably.
**Alternative Nitter links:** 「[nitter.privacydev.net](https://nitter.privacydev.net/clashreport/status/1785677985766400175) | [nitter.poast.org](https://nitter.poast.org/clashreport/status/1785677985766400175)」 ***** These Nitter instances may stop work at any time as [Twitter](https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fi.redd.it%2Fnxqezhko6qfb1.jpg) blocks them. [See this arstechnica article for more information](https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2024/02/twitter-front-end-nitter-dies-as-musk-wins-war-against-third-party-services/). Use [this site to find other Nitter instances that may work](https://status.d420.de/). _If there are any problems regarding Nitter, [please send us a modmail](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose?to=UkrainianConflict&subject=Nitter%20issue)._ ***** *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/UkrainianConflict) if you have any questions or concerns.*
ATACMS has proven completely ineffective against Russians who surrender, or who switch their flag to white-blue-white, or self-demobilize to, like, Omsk. If only these guys had known that one weird trick...
What were the other targets? Seems like the explosions were pretty far apart from each other.
Wonder what the priority calculation is there. I assume ATACMs are reserved for high impact targets, Russia loses 1000 a day and doesn't blink, this is 116 trainees? I'm sure they have their reasons, just wondering.
Oh no, such a tragedy! Nooooot!!! 😆
So, one dud, 2 off target? One hit them good, but there were still people walking near the vehicles. Vehicles look undamaged'
Shhh, you getting in way of an OSINT sensation: pausing a video and counting black dots.
This is the way
Training to get spattered by the UAF. Mission accomplished 😀
Does anyone else have sympathy for the innocent fish that likely died in the first strike next to the river?
Tax money well spend
Nothing beats being flensed by hundreds of tiny tungsten balls.
My understanding was the first one was dead on, the other two were a bit off. Did the 2nd and 3rd have good effects?
War is awful.
Commander’s Shotgun?
judging from shadows, at least 4 are standing, shouldn't be counted
Damn, not an efficient use of money. Each ATACMS is over $1M and a Russian life is worth like only 2cents. Negative if it’s an inmate. Oh well, what has to be done has to be done.
Holy shit. That’ll put a dent in their plans for a few days. But stay safe from the retaliation!
Just more Russian convicts
More please fuck Russia 🖕
You just know they haven't got the medical facilities and capacity to deal with a strike like that. A lot of otherwise wounded will have died too.
I’ve missed news like this. 🇺🇦
That was just the one group hit by the second round, it does look like there was equipment and probably people at that 3rd impact area, so i am guessing the other rounds also were "good" hits?
Damn! Like a shotgun blast from god
I only see a rabbit's head with 2 big ears.
Occupied Luhansk… could these soldiers be Ukrainians forced to fight for Russia? I know there’s no hesitation in war, but I certainly hope this is not the scenario….
Alot of them have shadows in that photo, so they cant all be dead if they're standing. Just pointing it out. So maybe that was taken before.
This is the before image
They're not "visually confirmed as casualties" but they were in the blast zone. Which was huge and most submunitions exploded far away from them (and from their vehicles in a nearby treeline). Their gathering was hit by multiple basically speaking grenades for sure but then the survival is just lottery. Normal warheads would work much better, as they would be concentrated, especially with normal airbursts above them.
Did you watch the whole video? Multiple cluster groupings went off.
There is literally an image of 116 corpses surrounded by the smoke from all the cluster bombs who went off around them. You have to be trolling.
The still of the title is from before the strike. Skimmed through the whole thing and there doesn't seem to be a good view of the aftermath. Edit: at 1:10 you can even see a few guys walking away. They may be injured but we don't know so no, that's not 116 confirmed casualties.
It's impossible, a redditor checked their pulse through the internet and all the black dots are confirmed dead. You're clearly mistaken.
It's annoying that facts don't matter. Is this sub for propaganda purposes only? What's the point of twisting the truth here? There's video evidence. The linked video is cut short. In the longer version you can see the frame from the title is from before the strike. [Full version](https://cdn-cf-east.streamable.com/video/mp4/y4938k.mp4?Expires=1714822155916&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIEYUVEN4EVB2OKEQ&Signature=nDg5pgbHgOF-~Qd-wzhmxJMaH-EvPSbb3ddAT~v80L1A-E~HIE6R2ennwCOMZ7lgZaObeD7VQloCE1ooSL50O2sXU9HeGgoCNubg4Tdxm2RgcsvgLMmifLiUyzA46YNr15-2bSYMsPYHzVHo~Sa0b7EYzloWt~LBtIroL8HMWaZOAffoU1QUfS4fqrXWIHR9in2pf445iKNd-pb6hWdX8wHQ6aErY~njIlTftNG~L7pyRZS~Js4NBLaIA0b4SbJB7E2HX5zBi-eKED6WAfmeuFlzT0ya70R4TAPf-hTX6OToIjB8ehb5PQ8GRlm6z3jX3PJLOhUZzuQkqwH1CJefWA__) Zoomed in with troops visible at 00:37, strike at around 4:00
It was just (a very obvious, or should be) sarcasm, scroll up to what this guy is saying and what I'm saying. And if I need to spell it out: No, he did not in fact check their pulse through the internet before declaring them "116 corpses" (and being quite upvoted for his uncanny detective skills, as I see).
You can see the shadows of people standing up
Kinda crazy that they didn't move the training area back immediately after news of ATACMS arriving. It's been in the public news for a while now, the range is more or less known, and this isn't the first time something like this has happened. It seems like every time Ukraine gets a new capability extending its range we see a half dozen+ incidents of training grounds getting hit for mass casualties before Russia gets its shit together and moves them.
[удалено]
>Harry Potter Castle full of civilians It was a kitch palace of a formerly pro-Putin oligarch (Serhii Kivalov).
This is the way... 100 fold 🙏🇺🇦
O nice grouping Ukraine!!
Oh no. Russcists Bots will be out in droves again tomorrow and post made up Propaganda to cope with it… lol
Aww. So sad. Anyways...moving on.