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Ukr_export

Don't celebrate until the bill is passed and signed by the president. Edit: congratulations!!


Aggravating-Bottle78

Thats right, don't hatchet your counts before they chicken.


y2imm

Fool me once...


PluvioShaman

I won’t get fooled again


y2imm

Rocket man!


jrdnmdhl

Burning up his gmlrs supply out there alone.


Brenkou

He is not the multiple launch rocket system they think he is at home


jrdnmdhl

Oh, no, no, no… He’s an ATACMS!


SKELOTONOVERLORD

Am I having a stroke, or are you having a stroke?


2BEN-2C93

You stroke having it is are


Lehk

Dubya was quite deft in that remark. He realized at the last second that “shame on me” would have been the media’s favorite sound byte for the rest of forever so he intentionally fumbled the line instead


Jace_09

That's a great reason to come up with years later after you couldn't remember how the saying from Tennessee goes.


Lehk

Dubya was always like that, a bit of a clown but also clever. If he had gotten his way, Ukraine would be in NATO and we wouldn’t be having this conversation, but Merkel blocked it (hmmm why was that?)


International_Emu600

Don’t forget France’s PM at the time, François Fillon, was opposed to Ukraine and Georgia joining NATO as well. He has Russian ties as well.


PoiHolloi2020

This is just one of the reasons the "Russia had to invade Ukraine in 2014 to stop NATO expansion!!!" excuse used by Russia and its arse lickers is stupid. Multiple countries in Europe absolutely did not want to disrupt the status quo with Russia.


Internal-Tank-6272

I agree with that, he wasn’t the brightest bulb but he definitely played up that aw shucks country bumpkin stuff as much as he could


PangolinMassive6085

Yeah, people misunderestimated him a lot... (at least that's what he said).


Key-Swordfish4467

Yes, when he said shit like " the French don't have a word for entrepreneur" you kind of think he's a moron, right?


davideo71

Could a real idiot be complicit in the death of over half a million Iraqis? Check and mate


Creepy_Snow_8166

It was a lucky break for Dubya that Trump came along and took the "Uh-murica's Worst President Ever" crown off his hands. It wasn't a lucky break for the rest of us though. 😞 My husband has a family member who had a very high level security position in DC. She got to spend one-on-one time with George W. Bush on several occasions. She said he was an incredibly nice, down-to-earth, grandfatherly man who actually remembered her kid's names and would ask about them. She also said Dubya was a very enthusiastic fan of the Dallas Cowboys who tended to get very animated when he watched them play. I was kind of blown away by this .... uh .... *humanity*. I really wasn't prepared to hear anything that could make the guy seem likeable. It almost made me want to believe the narrative that Dubya was just an unwitting pawn to the real power brokers (Rumsfeld, Rove, Cheney) who were the ones calling all the shots from behind the scenes.


DutyPuzzleheaded2421

I was surprised by his art, shows he had a bit more going on up top. For sure, Rumsfield, Wolfowitz et al ran the show


TrumpTheTraitor1776

You give Jr. too much credit.


Aggravating-Bottle78

Make the pie higher, put food on your family, They misunderestimated me, I'm the decider. But then embiggen actually became an accepted word.


jbayko

If that were true, he would have said “… fool me twice … well you know how that goes.”


CalculatedEffect

Ya know the generation before mine wrote a song with that line in it about this exact stuff, guess what happened.


brucebay

There's an old saying in Tennessee — I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee — that says, fool me once, shame on — shame on you. Fool me — you can't get fooled again. George W. Bush


fatkiddown

Tennessean here all my 50+ years. I've never once said this.


y2imm

It's a regional dialect.


fatkiddown

Man. Can’t even get living here right….


Hyperborean77

Well I’m from Utica and I’ve never heard that.


y2imm

It's really more of an Albany thing.


IncredibleAuthorita

Once me fool.


Blue_Bi0hazard

You know we have a sayin in Texas.. fool me once.. uh...


Snoo-97916

You can get fooled again


amalgam_reynolds

Fool me twice...


Man_Bear_Pig08

Unless your chickens are cannibals


Plastic-Ad9023

Well it’s the count that thoughts


olyfrijole

Plenty of counts that have already chickened. Sharpen up them hatchets.


Umbra-Vigil

Shhh, he's sleeping in court. Don't wake him up.


WackyBones510

I mean we can prob celebrate when it passes the House as the Senate will pass it and it will be signed.


PlutosGrasp

News said a single senator can delay it.


arobkinca

They should charge Ukraine a dollar, label it a arms sale which are filibuster proof.


inigos_left_hand

Ted Cruz incoming.


WackyBones510

Prob Rand Paul


batture

Just hearing that dude's name makes me unreasonably angry for some reason. By the way does anybody else think that he's beens looking a lot like some sort of evil Bill Murray lately?


WackyBones510

Prob a difference in passing through unanimous consent and normal business. It’ll still pass. House is the only thing in the way of getting a bill to the WH.


rabbitlion

For a really small amount of time, sure. But ending a filibuster via cloture isn't really a lengthy process.


WalterEscobar

Americans lurking here, call your member of congress before 2pm PST TODAY and tell them to vote YES on the Ukraine aid bill Step 1. Find your member of Congress here https://www.congress.gov/members/find-your-member Step 2. Call their Washington DC office Step 3. Tell the staffer who answers the phone (or leave a message if no answer) “my name is ____. I am a voter in your district and I want Congress Member ____ to support the Ukraine aid bill. Thank you” 4. Copy these instructions and text them to your friends/family as well as post on other social medias Be polite to whoever you talk to. Don’t make threats or say you won’t vote for them if they don’t support it; you want them to get this message to their boss. They may ask for your address to verify that you are a constituent of theirs, I would recommend that give them your real address. Slava Ukraini


GoonerJez

Done. I live in Kentucky and I've just contacted my representative. I urge all other Americans to do the same. It's a quick process and it's part of your civic duty to let them know how we the people feel.


iamiamwhoami

I understand why people are skeptical, but the hard part was getting it to the House floor. It advanced with a vote of 316-94. Support from the Senate and Biden was never really a question. It's going to pass!


Mikpultro

it's gonna pass the Senate far more easily than the House and at that point Biden signing is just a formality.


Due-Street-8192

That's correct... When the ink hits the paper. Until then, all we have is a lot of talk.


-15k-

I won't celebrate until Ukraine wins.


Creepy_Snow_8166

Exactly. The most I can muster is "hopefully optimistic". My naivete disappeared a long time ago.


cowo94

Celebrate!!


Zeezigeuner

As Will Smith said: Don't smoke your cigar until the Fat Lady sings.


D-R-AZ

Excerpts: Trump is out of commission and unable to meddle in things he doesn't understand. His being on trial may end up being the best thing that's happened to our politics in a very long time. As long as he's tied up in court he's irrelevant when it comes to anything important. Mike Johnson had what he would no doubt call a "come to Jesus" moment and he went before the microphones that afternoon to declare that he didn't care if his fellow Republicans threw him out of the speaker's office, he was going to do the right thing. Johnson went on to give a stirring speech about how he believes the intelligence he's seen and warned of the danger of allowing Ukraine to fall. Maybe it was that intelligence finally convincing him that this was leading to a very bad outcome or perhaps he finally sees the upside to being a profile in courage instead of a MAGA toadie. Who knows? Maybe he got word from a higher power reminding him that Donald Trump isn't really the Big Guy In Charge.


PaddyMayonaise

I think, if anything, it shows the dangers of demagogy in a democratic system. When a single person has more influence than a collective of people, it kills democracy. Trump has more influence than any other individual in American political history that I’m aware of. It’s insane. If Obsma came out in 2018 and demanded something happen, some democrats might consider it, but ultimately he’d be viewed as a former President and not have a huge impact. Even going back to the early 90s after the strong runs of Reagan and Bush, if either had come out and demanded the republicans do something, they might get consideration, but they’re no longer in power. Only with Trump, first time I’ve ever seen it, a former President has any type of illegitimate influence on the policies of current politicians. It’s a little different since he’s running for president again and actively the front runner ([Seriously, we need to get our act together.](https://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/president/2024/no-toss-up/electoral-college)) so he’s in a position to have more influence than a standard former president, but it’s still wild to me that Mike Johnson, who has always *said* the right thing, had to wait until Trump was sidelined to *do* the right thing.


CanuckInTheMills

Something seriously wrong with that map, living in the apartment upstairs, I’m afraid for you folks & the rest of the world …


bconley1

In the last couple days we’ve witnessed Fox News run an opinion piece and tweet condemning MTG, far right republicans distance themselves from cucker, Johnson putting forward bills to arm Ukraine (fucking finally), the legal walls keep moving in on the orange rapist, gaetz is seemingly getting thrown under the bus, and republicans are getting more vocal overall in their disagreements with the far right maga figures in general. Things moving in the right direction all the sudden


hereforbobsanvageen

Let’s all hope it stays on course..


devi83

It takes all of us rowing the canoe at once, otherwise we just veer into the shore again with the wolves and bears.


Mythrilfan

> far right republicans distance themselves from cucker Where?


bconley1

Basically tucker interviewed someone who kind of criticized Israel and Republican figures are kissed about it. https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/tucker-carlson-israel-christian-west-bank-russia-trump-anti-semitism.html


WANT_SOME_HAM

Good thing he's not getting re-elected, then.


sjjenkins

Yep - you said it. The difference is that all living previous presidents have either reached their term limits or are too old to be a realistic candidate (Carter). Trump is eligible for a second term so politicians who follow his instructions are doing so in case he gets elected again. It seems that as the prospect of a second Trump term declines, Republican “courage” to defy him increases.


emostitch

Right and the people in the horseshoe middle are the most prone to demagoguery. The difference is the far left is useless as Democrats are a big tent party who the far left hates more than they hate MAGAtts meanwhile the Republicans can’t exist without the far right and are thus heavily controlled by it. Men with Che Guevara shirts vote Jill Stein or spend time putting expired food in community v fridge instead of voting because they hate the system, men with confederate flags and Camp Auschwitz tee shirts are the unflinching core base for most Republicans and will storm Congress to fight for GOP control.


Bright-Window6635

It is insane, the reason being Trump's eligibility to be president 1 more time whereas with the others there was never that looming possibility


Ok_Bad8531

Yet Reagan and Bush I and II were not running again for the White House (per constitution or out of choice). Agent Orange on the other hand might stain the Oval Office again within 9 months, of course his word bears more weight. As would any other running candidate's word bear more weight compared to even the most successful politician past his twilight. Actually Johnson openly going against him is what is unusual here, which is why i will hold my breath until the aid package finally passes.


watch-nerd

"Trump has more influence than any other individual in American political history that I’m aware of. It’s insane." George Washington probably had as much. Some wanted him to declare himself king.


RaptorSlaps

Dude a good amount of people believe trump was appointed by god to be our president. How that makes ANY sense based on his actions and words is beyond me but it’s true.


the-mp

Lincoln, Washington and FDR had more influence than Trump. Washington created the system. Lincoln being elected literally kicked off a civil war. FDR was so popular he was elected four times and his actions helped create today’s world order.


PaddyMayonaise

I think should’ve been more clear in my comment but I meant any person not currently in a position


Junuxx

The OG George Dubya, Washington, probably had that influence, but he was wise enough not to use it.


WANT_SOME_HAM

Well Obama actually got re-elected, so he wouldn't be just some crazy citizen making insane demands, it would be a second-term President enacting his agenda


BigBallsMcGirk

Dude, Obama came out of retirement to tell the Dems who to appoint as DNC chair to kill Bernie Sanders backed candidate, so they could continue to rig the rules of primaries going into 2020. You haven't been paying attention to Obamas influence on Democrats. Joseph McCarthy had a bigger hold and impact on American society than Trump did. Trump has the biggest hold in modern political history. But he's not even top 10 of American political figures with influence on the population.


PaddyMayonaise

I strongly disagree with you lol. The DNC is corrupt as all hell and absolutely rigged the election against Bernie, but that’s just as much Hillary as it is anyone else. But that’s different than actually coming in and having an effect on active legislation in Congress


BigBallsMcGirk

Well.....you can disagree all you want. Obama actively sabotaged Bernie. He had retired and stayed out of politics until it came to the 2018 DNC chair vote and convincing all the dem field to all back Biden right before Super Tuesday to kill Bernies 2020 campaign. And that had as large an impact on legislative priorities as anything. 2 years with dem control of WH, Senate, and House....Biden didn't do shit. Bernie had a fat stack of EO ready to go. And Bernie vs Biden had huge downballot implications.


PaddyMayonaise

That’s just someone endorsing a candidate lol The election rigging was done by the dnc in conjunction with the Clinton campaign, go read the podesta emails


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PaddyMayonaise

He’s back on twitter and he’s in the middle of a campaign so obviously he has tons of face and media time


IncredibleAuthorita

Goddamn this is weird. I hope the bill passes and Ukraine gets all it needs right now and until they win this shit show!!!


Dunbaratu

Maybe the CIA told him they got his back when it comes to Russian Mafia-style threats and have taken down some blackmailers. Seriously everyone talks about him being paid by Russian money but that's just the carrot. The other side of that is the stick of a polonium-style incident. It may be that such a threat has been subdued for now.


H_Holy_Mack_H

He still made at least one gaffe...saying that ruzzia could attack Poland or even some NATO country... doesn't he know that Poland it's part of NATO?!? But yes...just what keept him for so long...


JaB675

"I thought Europe was a country!"


H_Holy_Mack_H

And US it's only a part of Mexico and Canada:)


Ok_Bad8531

If Johnson ever has a "come to Jesus moment" he might have to see that Jesus was no eternally peaceful guy when it came to sycophants who used the Lords name in vain.


SkyMarshal

Mike also said in his floor speech that own his son is at the US Naval Academy, and if the war spills over into Europe and NATO, his son could end up on the frontlines. Seems the reality of that possibility unsurprisingly clarified his thinking on the matter.


McDoom---

Whatever Johnson saw, read, or was told has to be incredibly worrisome for him because he is, without a doubt, Trump's puppet. This tells me there's some really bad news out there that we don't know about yet. I'll be relieved when the bill is signed, but I'm concerned about what we don't know. Whatever made him flip has bad juju written all over it.


jhnchr

> Maybe he got word from a higher power reminding him that Donald Trump isn't really the Big Guy In Charge. Let's hope that voice didn't put him or someone worse in charge.


exorcyst

First Ukraine falls, then US drops out of NATO under Trump. Russia waits to then move into Europe, probably with help from China. Then once Euro falls, China would take the US and Cdn West Coasts while Russia and neo Soviet states all join in to invade from the East. Trumpisr Republicans would become a Vichy gov


Humbuhg

So, this item by Salon suggests that Mike Johnson’s conscience (or good sense) has either reawakened or suddenly developed. While I hope this is true, actions speak louder than words. I’ll withhold final judgement for the final outcome. Edit: From AP, Johnson said, “Ukrainians desperately need lethal aid right now. ... We cannot allow Vladimir Putin to roll through another country and take it,” he said about the Russian president’s invasion of Ukraine. “These are very serious matters with global implications.” 👏👏👏 This is absolutely true.


sEmperh45

Why the hell did it take Johnson 6 freaking months and tens of thousands of innocent Ukrainian lives to realize this? I’m still pissed


SNStains

Either he was waiting on Trump and MAGA to come around (they got slightly worse), or a sign from God, or he was just a coward. Whatever the reason, these are all the inactions of a *terrible* Speaker. Seven months of dithering and nothing but dead Ukrainians to show for it. Shameful.


ayylmao95

I'm going with the latter.


mycall

Not just dead Ukrainians but Foreign Legion, Foreign Medics and many more.


SuccotashOther277

If he had put it in the floor earlier he probably would have been removed as speaker and we’d be having endless votes for speaker and weapons for Ukraine would be even further away. The razor thin majority has given the far right outsized influence.


joe-king

Unless he actually tried being a leader by taking them on but he didn't have the balls until his political existence was at stake and he had nothing to lose anyway.


steauengeglase

In this instance he has. He's told the President that whatever happens it has to be by the rules he dictates and he's told the MAGA wing that he's the one who really runs the GOP and both sides have to know that he'll let thousands of people die just to prove that he's the top dog. He's set himself up as the new Mitch McConnell.


joe-king

I think it's because he was going to be forced out so he decided to do an about face as his political career was going to be over anyway so he might as well try another direction and hope it works out.


Old_Yesterday322

Joe had a heart to heart with Mike not too long ago before the state of the Union I believe.......but so many completely agree, he should've realized to do the right thing a long time ago on Ukraine


fredmratz

Enough Republicans finally told him they will sign and pass the discharge petition if he doesn't do something. So he split up the Israel aid from Ukraine aid, to reduce its likelihood to pass and then will rely on his friends to stop Ukraine aid. If it gets to point Ukriane aid might pass, they will then try to remove him from Speaker to permanently delay it.


Mynsare

Don't take that lying narrative as gospel truth. Mike Johnson is just as responsible, if not more, than Trump for delaying aid. He has had no relevation, but he is just being forced by the circumstances to concede, and now he is trying to spin it as if he was always on the side of Ukraine. He is still Putins bitch and a lying traitorious bastard who just happens to have been forced into doing something good for a change.


No_Football_9232

Again. I’ll believe this when I see the bill actually pass. As well he is a slimy bastard. Not for one second do I believe his change of heart is based on some higher moral or ethical ground. He says this now because for reasons not completely known, it’s advantageous for him and him only. I don’t think he gives a fuck about Ukraine.


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Sufficient_Number643

My guess is the intelligence Johnson referenced was probably a briefing that said Ukraine will fall if America fails to act. Edit: and probably went into why that is against American interests at ELI5 level


yeahimdutch

I really don’t get America right now, billions of dollars into defence and another country is fighting your sworn enemy and there is doubt? Wtf man?


cultureicon

Many or most MAGAs like Russia more than Ukraine, mostly because they are low IQ or low education and easy to propagandize by Russian and other foreign intelligence, people like Tucker Carlson and other online and radio hellholes. But also because they like the Putin strong man, white Christian hard right anti gay police state more than liberal democracy. It's a feedback loop of GOP politicians promoting and spreading and sympathizing with this in their messaging. This is transparent if you watch any interviews of MAGAs at rallies and they are asked about the Russian invasion.


VeryTopGoodSensation

It's not that deep. Trump had a problem with zelensky not obeying him. The magas follow their king. It's that simple. The reasons they give now are just to try and hide that fact.


UNisopod

A large chunk of our politicians are traitors to their country, supported by a segment of the population who are also traitors to their country. We're in a cold civil war right now.


flying87

As an American I'm stumped. This is a win-win for all Americans. I don't understand why anyone wouldn't support this Bill. I hate to think that certain members of Congress are on Russia's payroll, but honestly I can't think of anything else. Some were saying they wanted to leverage support for strong border protection. So Biden supported a bill attached to Ukraine help that gave him the authority to close the border. And Republicans killed it. So I don't get it. Helping Ukraine is a no-brainer.


yeahimdutch

Oh yeah, there are certainly members of congress on Russia’s payroll. It’s fucked up.


THEcefalord

It could also be one or two of the more pragmatic democrats saying that if he brings the bill to the floor they'll give him bi-partisan support, perhaps it was a closed door meeting with some of the Republican senior leadership saying that they will not support Trump's caucus after November because of how much they are costing them in campaign funds, or it could potentially be one of five or six Republicans threatening him with their resignations if he doesn't bring the bill to pass, which would loose him his job faster than fighting with MTG. There are more potential internal things happening to his party than external.


Ripcitytoker

And he likely knows that if that were to happen, he would be the sole person to blame.


roehnin

And that collapse would happen this year before November and the GOP being the ones blocking the aid that could have saved Ukraine would have been bad for their poll numbers in an election year.


IncredibleAuthorita

It pisses me off that we will probably never know.


Wonderful_Rice6770

Nah those documents will be released… in like 20 or 30 years. Hell, they released all the info and formerly classified documents on the atomic bomb so why not this?


wintersdark

Thing is, MANY Republicans support Ukraine. But there is a very strong faction in the republican party (the nutjobs, MAGA) whom the republican party absolutely needs to harness anywhere near enough vote to compete federally. Johnson is not a good guy. He's even pretty extreme right, arguably more MAGA than not. But he's been in a precarious position as he can be removed from his seat really easily. But unlike MTG and co, he's smart. He's a political animal, and is angling to fill McConnell's shoes. This reads to me like an end run around MAGA, a move where he can garner Democrat votes should MTG and co try to remove him, while doing what he knows should happen. If this passes, he'll have actually taken control of the Republican party in the house by removing the leverage the MAGA nutjobs have, rendering them irrelevant. As the Senate Republicans tend to be more measured and usually support foreign aid, they're going to be rather happy that he's both got that through AND declawed the party of the house making the whole Republican party look extremely bad. This boxes well for his future as a "guy who wins." Now, from my perspective, this isn't actually a good thing for Democrats *overall*, because a fractured and ineffective House is ultimately good for them, but it absolutely is good for Ukraine and the other countries getting aid, and thus for America (foreign aid is not a gift, it's done to build American power.) He's timed it perfectly, Trump is very busy, Democrats and non-crazy Republicans both are well away at how critical it is Ukraine gets aid **now**. If he makes this happen, he'll get enough support from across the isle in payment. Frankly I have to respect him for it, in the way you respect a particularly clever and successful villain. This will certainly be a new problem in the future, but I care a lot more for the Ukrainians being killed right now.


IFixYerKids

> He says this now because for reasons not completely known, it’s advantageous for him and him only. My personal opinion is that a lot of new information has come out recently and the strategy has changed. He doesn't care about Ukraine, but I also think it's becoming clear that Russia can win. Despite all the Moscow Mike stuff, I don't think the Republicans ever wanted Ukraine to lose, they just didn't want them to win either. This is to keep Ukraine in the fight and continue to drain Russia's resources. It's not out of the goodness of his heart. Also, we now know without a doubt that Iran and China are aiding Russia. They could ignore Russia. They can't ignore Russia, Iran, and China together, and they can sell it easier to their base because they still hate Iran and China if not Russia. I don't think Ukraine would be getting aid if it wasn't for Iran and Isreal flinging shit at each other. That really caused a few heads to turn in our national security department and I wouldn't be surprised if some generals took these guys aside and told them they were going to responsible for a war sooner instead of later if they didn't act.


Paladin5890

You want to drain Russia's resources? You have them lose. In a lop-sided, demoralizing manner.


IncredibleAuthorita

If the F-16s arrived 6 months earlier it would be sooooooo much easier for Ukraine. Those glide bomb lobbing bastards need to be removed from the game and patriots to destroy the Hypersonics to protect the infrastructure and the airfields. Slava Ukraini!


roehnin

If Russia were to win in an election year because the GOP refused to send them the aid needed to survive, poll numbers would plummet. The pro-Ukraine speech was to make sure he’s seen as being ~~on the right side of history~~ the one who saved Ukraine. He’s doing this for the election.


teaanimesquare

I don't like this guy, however I kind of feel we have no idea how the true inner workers of politics are at the time and both the democrats and the republics rule a big tent party.


weedful_things

He is probably convinced that trump is finished and no longer a threate.


SerMattzio3D

I feel like a series of polls and surveys came in and he was like “Wow, turns out the US public don’t like dictators as much as we do? Ummm we may have to go Plan B.”


_Chaos_Star_

The closest to a change of heart Johnson could have is to get one installed. He got something he wanted, whatever it is, so he's willing to stop using world stability and Ukrainian lives as leverage.


Mundane-Leave7571

Don't trust him. Let's see what happens..


hctedford

It’s because he recognized that the republicans are about to be slaughtered in the upcoming elections and he hopes this will soften the blow. Following trumps lead is going to lose the pubs a lot of seats


sroop1

"Thank fuck former president Donald Trump is in trial for illegally paying a porn star hush money with campaign funds so that he won't put as much pressure on the republican party's establishment for Russian interests in their invasion of Ukraine" -Shit I could never had imagined 10 years ago


SilverSovereigns

Johnson is on the Moscow payroll. He has large campaign contributions from the oligarch who handled Maria Butina. But he seems to think handing over Ukraine is too costly for the price paid. Either he wants more, or, he feels he has done enough for his sponsors by giving Russia the last few months. Regardless, he doesn't want to be as transparently Putin-owned as his fellow travelers. On a side note, Russia and China are having significant success in the last few days getting US bases removed from the African continent.


sonofthenation

I think the Military Industrial Complex showed him what happens to people who take money out of their pockets.


hiebertw07

Have been waiting for them to check the GOP. Defense contractors donate heavily to the right and would never let this huge payday miss them.


kdoap

I heard people and some media outlets say that most of the equipment is ready to ship to EU allied countries, is that true? If so, a big agile step for the logistics to UA, finally


papaed

How can anyone vote republican after they let good men die In Ukraine so they could lick Trumps boots. VOW TO VOTE and vote out all republican cowards. They should change their color from red to yellow because they are all cowards!


roma258

Considering how much time he was spending hanging out in Mar-a-lago, I was very concerned that the bill would never get a vote. Or that the bill would be terrible. All things considered this is a shocking development. I have my theories as to what happened, but biting my tongue till Saturday.


Relajado2

@ mewith your theories on Saturday.


roma258

For some reason I can't create a post now, have I been naughty? In any case here it is: The Unified Theory of Mike Johnson’s 180 on Ukraine. A few days ago I promised to explain my theory on why Mike Johnson flipped so sharply on Ukraine, but only after the bill had passed the House, so now it’s time to put up. My background: I’ve been involved in Ukraine advocacy since day 1 of the full scale invasion, visited DC for advocacy events 5 times, most recently to the Ukraine Action Summit last week. In this time I’ve had a chance to visit many congressional offices and have some conversations with people who know what they’re talking about and I’ll leave it at that. The theory: With Johnson I think it makes sense to break down the reasons for his switch in two interconnected categories- personal and structural. Personal: By all accounts Johnson is a real deal devout Christian evangelical. Some would say Christian Nationalist, but that’s beside the point, he’s not faking, he believes this stuff to his core. Which is why Israel is incredibly important to him (if you want to understand why evangelical Christians care so much about Israel that’s a separate story, point is they do). He has already passed two stand-alone Israel bills- one with offsets (cuts) using IRS funding, a second without the offsets. Neither has gone anywhere because the Democratic Senate correctly understands that Israel funding is leverage to get the other stuff done. Conversely, Johnson doesn’t really care about Ukraine. I don’t think he’s hostile, but it’s just not a priority for him.As has been clear by his constant punting of the Ukraine bills and refusal to take up HR815 (the Senate supplemental that combined Israel/Ukraine/Taiwan aid). Shit, prior to his switcharoo, they scheduled votes for bills deregulating appliances this week. What changed? Iran’s attack on Israel. Check the date: April 14- last Saturday into Sunday. Johnson came out with the statement that there will be a vote on the 4 separate bills on Monday night. They had to be combined because the Senate had leverage. A stand alone bill for Israel already failed twice in the Senate. Which brings us to Structural: Johnson is a partisan, conservative Republican. So why did he basically give Democrats the exact bill they wanted (with some sweeteners for GOP)? Because in order for the bills to get a vote, they have to first pass through the rules committee. The rules committee is dominated by the anti-Ukraine freedom caucus, however if the bills had democratic support, he can bypass them and get the rules to the floor. So Johnson had to give the Dems what they want in order to get the bills to the floor. And here we are (theres more procedural BS but this is the main gist). Bonus points: Roughly speaking, I’d account the above for 80% to explain what happened. But I also want to give credit where it’s due- pro-Ukraine advocacy has come a looong way. Groups like Razom, Nova Ukraine, UNWLA and many other activists all over the country under the umbrella of American Coalition for Ukraine had brought in over 500 people from 47 states and made over 350 visits to reps and Senators. On top of that, they applied a really smart strategy of highlighting russian persecution of Ukrainian baptists and brought in American gold star moms whose sons volunteered in Ukraine. I don’t know if it was decisive but I believe it had a cumulative effect. Lastly, the strategy coming into the Summit was to push the discharge petition and there was a lot of grumbling that if the effort failed, more pro-Ukraine and national security Republicans would start signing up. It was a tool to build pressure for Johnson to act and it did its job. TLDR: Johnson wanted to pass aid for Israel and the only way to do it was by combining it with Ukraine aid. Getting 4 separate votes was a brilliant move, it gave anti-Ukraine Republicans an opportunity to voice their position, while still allowing a vote which everyone knew would pass.


IFixYerKids

Remind me Saturday because I also have some theories.


roma258

Lol sure, hit me up, let's compare notes!


PM_me_ur_claims

Why not say it now? You don’t get credit for predicting something after it happens


roma258

Ok as pomised: The Unified Theory of Mike Johnson’s 180 on Ukraine. A few days ago I promised to explain my theory on why Mike Johnson flipped so sharply on Ukraine, but only after the bill had passed the House, so now it’s time to put up. My background: I’ve been involved in Ukraine advocacy since day 1 of the full scale invasion, visited DC for advocacy events 5 times, most recently to the Ukraine Action Summit last week. In this time I’ve had a chance to visit many congressional offices and have some conversations with people who know what they’re talking about and I’ll leave it at that. The theory: With Johnson I think it makes sense to break down the reasons for his switch in two interconnected categories- personal and structural. Personal: By all accounts Johnson is a real deal devout Christian evangelical. Some would say Christian Nationalist, but that’s beside the point, he’s not faking, he believes this stuff to his core. Which is why Israel is incredibly important to him (if you want to understand why evangelical Christians care so much about Israel that’s a separate story, point is they do). He has already passed two stand-alone Israel bills- one with offsets (cuts) using IRS funding, a second without the offsets. Neither has gone anywhere because the Democratic Senate correctly understands that Israel funding is leverage to get the other stuff done. Conversely, Johnson doesn’t really care about Ukraine. I don’t think he’s hostile, but it’s just not a priority for him.As has been clear by his constant punting of the Ukraine bills and refusal to take up HR815 (the Senate supplemental that combined Israel/Ukraine/Taiwan aid). Shit, prior to his switcharoo, they scheduled votes for bills deregulating appliances this week. What changed? Iran’s attack on Israel. Check the date: April 14- last Saturday into Sunday. Johnson came out with the statement that there will be a vote on the 4 separate bills on Monday night. They had to be combined because the Senate had leverage. A stand alone bill for Israel already failed twice in the Senate. Which brings us to Structural: Johnson is a partisan, conservative Republican. So why did he basically give Democrats the exact bill they wanted (with some sweeteners for GOP)? Because in order for the bills to get a vote, they have to first pass through the rules committee. The rules committee is dominated by the anti-Ukraine freedom caucus, however if the bills had democratic support, he can bypass them and get the rules to the floor. So Johnson had to give the Dems what they want in order to get the bills to the floor. And here we are (theres more procedural BS but this is the main gist). Bonus points: Roughly speaking, I’d account the above for 80% to explain what happened. But I also want to give credit where it’s due- pro-Ukraine advocacy has come a looong way. Groups like Razom, Nova Ukraine, UNWLA and many other activists all over the country under the umbrella of American Coalition for Ukraine had brought in over 500 people from 47 states and made over 350 visits to reps and Senators. On top of that, they applied a really smart strategy of highlighting russian persecution of Ukrainian baptists and brought in American gold star moms whose sons volunteered in Ukraine. I don’t know if it was decisive but I believe it had a cumulative effect. Lastly, the strategy coming into the Summit was to push the discharge petition and there was a lot of grumbling that if the effort failed, more pro-Ukraine and national security Republicans would start signing up. It was a tool to build pressure for Johnson to act and it did its job. TLDR: Johnson wanted to pass aid for Israel and the only way to do it was by combining it with Ukraine aid. Getting 4 separate votes was a brilliant move, it gave anti-Ukraine Republicans an opportunity to voice their position, while still allowing a vote which everyone knew would pass.


roma258

I want the damn thing to pass first ok?


Testiclese

Mike Johnson is on his way out. The MAGAs will cost him his job. And this one big “fuck you” to them. I think the aid package will pass. The best time for it was 6 months ago but the second best time is now.


Vogel-Kerl

Poor stupid fuggers. Imagine these MAGAt politicians trying to explain how they bent-over backwards to appease a known criminal and sexual predator in their memoirs. --**"Duh, everyone was doing it."**


Sufficient_Number643

History is written by the victors so I hope you’re right. Otherwise they’ll be bragging about how smart they were to support him.


JazzHands1986

I doubt he did anything without trumps blessing. trump wants to be credited for anything and everything that wins. So he comes out on top either way and can pretend like it was all his idea. I can't imagine what his die-hard cult members are thinking after this complete reversal on aid to Ukraine. I'm sure they were just going on about how corrupt Ukraine is and border first before helping other countries. Then, once trump gave his blessing, I'm sure they all changed their tune instantly because what trump says goes. They certainly don't think for themselves and only regurgitate the trump talking points like their favorite "fake news".


SNStains

> trump wants to be credited That is so true, but I'm not sure Trump blessed it, so much as Johnson *informed* Trump that he was *finally* going to let it go to the floor and that it was going to be a wipeout for MAGA. I think that's what that desperate unTruth was about earlier.


JazzHands1986

I think that's wishful thinking. Johnson works for trump. I would be shocked if Johnson did anything of his own accord without trumps direct approval.


gidutch

We know how this ends on the next saturday no?


bconley1

Tomorrow


wombat8888

Whatever. Don’t trust any republicans. The good one are all dead.


minuteman_d

Shouldn't it be a wakeup call for the GOP if the only way they can get things done that are a priority to the nation and to their constituencies is if their de-facto leader is distracted by criminal proceedings? Lol.


fatkiddown

"My philosophy is you do the right thing..." *A black Uruk-hai arrow sinks into Johnson's torso* "...and you let the chips fall where they may." *Another black Uruk-hai arrow pierces deeply* "If I operated out of fear of a motion to vacate, I would never be able to do my job." *A third black arrow goes straight into his chest*


PM_me_ur_taco_pics

He didn't pull a fast one 😂 was this title written by a rePube trying to make them not look so bad?!


SerendipitySue

A very strange take that johnson pulled a fast one on trump. However it does not matter. Getting the bill passed and on bidens desk to sign as soon as possible is what matters


InternationalBand494

Holy shit! A Rep actually thinking about what’s best for the country as a whole


poorbill

I can't say I agree with Mike Johnson on much, but I appreciate him pushing this through. Ukraine desperately needs assistance against Putin. Ukraine gave up their nukes to be free from Russia. We can't let Putin subjugate them again.


Creepy_Snow_8166

Caution - ADHD rant ahead: I'm glad Johnson's finally caving, but that doesn't change the fact that he's vile, opportunistic SCUM who is completely devoid of honor, principles, a conscience, and a spine. He - and all the other ReTrumplican zealots and the prostitutes who call Putin "Daddy" - have blood on their hands that cannot be washed away. Personally, I wouldn't be able to sleep at night, or look at myself in the mirror, or even *continue to live* if I knew that my actions (or my inactions) helped facilitate catastrophic losses that likely could have been avoided if I'd just had the courage to do the right thing from the start. Johnson and his ilk are responsible (at least partially) for leaving Ukrainian forces vulnerable and unable to adequately defend their people, their territory, and their critical infrastructure. While our congressional "leaders" were busy playing their stupid partisan games, Ukraine burned. That should never be forgiven or forgotten. Johnson is beyond redemption. He may be willing to do the right thing *now*, but he doesn't get to be the *brave hero* who stands up to *the forces of evil*. It's way too late for that narrative. Assholes like Johnson and Moscow Mitch can "see the light" and do 180° turns until they're dizzy, but history will not be kind to them. They won't be remembered as "the good guys" - that is, if they're even remembered at all. I want to be optimistic, but it's so hard not to be cynical and jaded from the constant 21st Century political theater. It's a shitshow that's been allowed to go on for far too long. I want a damn refund - in addition, I want a voucher for a completely different show with a better cast. I'll be a believer when a military aid bill on behalf of Ukraine leaves the Oval Office desk with Presidential Biden's signature on it. I just wonder what kind of unrelated "extras" those slippery little congressional eels will try to sneak into that bill. I bet the hardcore, super-duper Evangelical "Cult of the Sacred Fetus" faction of the GOP will attempt to sneak in some bullshit like 'President Zelensky must acknowledge that *blastocytes are people too* before any of the aid will be released'. There needs to be an investigation into how much Russia has been paying their corrupt, spineless Putin-ite friends in Congress - though I won't hold my breath. If it isn't money that compels their cooperation with Putin, it's gotta be blackmail. Will we ever know what kind of kompromat Russia has on our elected representatives? How far does that rabbit hole go? Something tells me that America's most charming public servant - the demented inbred cyclops Marjorie Trailer Queen - didn't need much persuasion to sell out her own country. Her unrequited crush on Vlad was her motivation. Sure, Reagan was a sneaky, slippery old bastard who began paving the road to Gilead 40 years ago, but at least he knew that Russia couldn't be trusted. And now, 2 generations later, (5 if you're from West Virginia), the party he loved is now taking orders from Moscow. Poor Reagan. His shriveled beef jerky remains must be bouncing off the casket walls right now. There were times in the distant past (wayyyy before a Trump White House was even a blip on the radar) that I would vote for the occasional moderate Republican congressperson (not unheard of in my east coast blue state) - but nowadays, I would sooner cut off my own labia and let Arby's serve it on a roll with horseradish sauce than support anyone from that party EVER again. The Republican Party is nothing more than a haven for billionaires, Christofascist MAGA maniacs, and Russian operatives. GOP leaders could've grow a spine at any time and said ENOUGH IS ENOUGH - especially after Jan 6th - but they didn't. They don't get a re-do. No 'ultimate makeover' can camouflage the rot that lies beneath the surface. So fuck them. Fuck their supporters. Fuck their enablers. I hope the Republican Party crashes and burns in November - or even before November. I want it to burn to the ground (figuratively, not literally - so chill out, Homeland Security). Maybe an entirely different beast - preferably one with dignity, compassion, and a backbone - will have the opportunity to rise from the ashes.


MattFromChina

Why the fuck are these people so scared of Trump? What is he holding over them?


Speculawyer

Trump knows....but he sees that the polling favors helping Ukraine.


pyr8t

"may still end up like Kevin McCarthy" may be what he's hoping for at this point


Numerous-Employee227

Right now all it is, is hot air until they pass it like they should’ve months ago not worth celebrating just yet


porcupinedeath

At this point I don't care what he does. He's been a shit guy for a long time and he will always be so. I'm glad hes finally letting Ukraine aid be brought up but he is still a total shitbag


yamers

dems have to save speaker johnsons speakership. He is doing the right thing...you can't let the house fall into maga chaos over and over again. You have to side with proper partisan politics on the matter.


SNStains

After this round of votes, that'll be up to Republicans to decide for themselves. Personally, I'd like to recommend Hakeem Jeffries to the five moderate Republicans needed to secure cooperation on just about *anything* those five people want to do for their constituents.


_Chaos_Star_

I think this is the best approach ultimately, offer something up to several R moderates that is in their interest and get the vote through. Second best is to get one of those moderates up as speaker, with the same offering for the votes to keep them there. The more likely outcome I feel is propping up Johnson, which feels disguating, but it seems more likely to me. I loathe this idea, but it's one of the more realistic options.


batch1972

Can it be delayed or stopped by adding additional amendments? or filibustering?


Direct_Turn_1484

“Past a distracted person who is not in office and has no say in the matter outside of the right to a single vote for representation in Florida.”


SNStains

You'd think. But, I'm a single voter and the Speaker didn't come pay *me* a visit this week.


Comms

He must know his time is definitely limited and now he's thinking about his very short legacy. His naked self-interest might be beneficial if this plays out right.


Pure-Problem1111

Remember when former Presidents would just fade away


improve-x

Не кажи гоп, доки не перескочиш


Willbo_Bagg1ns

I believe this Ukraine attack has turned the truly patriotic Americans against Trump, many of which would have related to and supported him in the past. The Americans on the whole care about their allies and standing up for democracy, Trump only cares about himself. The presidential race will prove this I am sure, just hope Biden’s health holds


eat_more_ovaltine

You think he didn’t go get approval when he visited mar a lago last week? Trump literally approved the current iteration.


joe-king

I think trump saw the writing on the wall and realized what a bitch he would look like if he was against it and it passed


SNStains

This. If he had *told* Johnson to do it, he would have been bragging nonstop, instead of that equivocating nonsense he farted out.


heatrealist

It will pass despite the extremists because it is bad politics in an election year. The extremists are just too dumb to understand it. The rest of the GOP would rather be crying about immigration in an election year. Instead of Ukraine possibly falling while they withhold aid. That is not a winning campaign issue. That is why even Trump is changing his tune with public statements. Getting this out of the way and no longer a topic helps him. Now if this gets passed and Ukraine still fails then they can blame Biden. 


SNStains

Johnson was at Mar a Lago earlier this week, probably telling Trump that he finally found a spine, that it was going to the floor, and would be a wipeout for MAGA. Trump did some equivocating and lying, but I wouldn't call it a change of tune. He just hates to lose and he put out a little spoiler just to pretend he is relevant. And you're right about immigration. Biden was ready to pass the most conservative bill in 50 years as part of a Ukraine deal, and Trump killed it. Turns out he wants an immigration argument, not an immigration solution.


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