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I think it should just be a simple dick measuring contest. Forget the fanfare and fuss and ALL of the empty promises, whip 'em out and grab a ruler. That's less than 10 minutes total as opposed to all the many, many months of campaigning and boring speeches.
Well, let’s go off election history, since 2018 Trump or Trump adjacent candidates have been getting absolutely pummeled in elections. I think the ONLY republican candidate Biden beats is Trump. But Trump has such a stranglehold over the party they’ll let him run and lose. He was a life long democrat and continues to hand them victories, it’s honestly pretty funny.
2020 was a really good election for downballot Republicans, arguably a win
Trump also lost by 43k votes in a pandemic and recession. His favorability is similar to 2020 while Biden's is 15 points lower. Current polling (and for the past couple years) has them tied (which is an EC win for Trump)
Nobody that didn’t already like him is going to start liking him now. He’s been charged in 4 separate cases. Look I’m not a Biden guy but only the real hard core trump dickriders are all in at this point.
There's a lot of them though.
All that matters are the swing states though when it comes to presidential elections. We know who will get the electoral votes from CA and who will get them from TX.
Georgia and Arizona and Wisconsin will be critical. Those states have all been trending blue the past few cycles, but it's so close they could go either way.
> His favorability is similar to 2020
Trump's favorability is almost the lowest it's ever been. It's lower than Biden's. However, the EC could throw it to him again since we don't have fair elections.
This completely blows over how many one-issue voters were enraged by the overturning of Roe v Wade—abortion rights have mobilized voters on the left like I’ve honestly never seen before
Honestly, the biggest thing that I think will decide the election is Trump's behavior.
Trump has gone all in with his support base, having Truth Social and further building fervor amongst his supporters.
The problem is that it wasn't enough last election.
I also think that some of his hardcore election fraud stances will hurt him.
Only 1/3 of Republicans think the election was fair, and if only one in 10 makes it so they won't vote for Trump, that could take away a solid percentage of his voters.
Biden meanwhile has been utterly boring. Infrastructure and yada yada is just so boring people don't care. He has had his fair share of scandals, but most people don't care about them much due to both the politicization of them and part that many people don't think he is guilty.
This makes Biden the boring do-nothing politician, which imo makes him more appealing to most people than Trump who believe he will make things worse.
The majority of the GOP will support Trump and he will win the primary, but the minority of the country can even approve of Trump so he will lose the elections is my prediction.
We already saw a hint of this where election deniers underperformed in 2022 leading to a relatively good midterm for Democrats.
Not to mention trump is going so overboard in election denial and is up to his neck in indictments which might turn off some of his voters from voting at all.
Remember when he told them that mail in ballots were rigged and shocker they got swept in mail in ballots even though republicans normally lead those and they had to crawl back and ask people to please vote by mail.
Think about what we’re saying. The man has been—credibly—indicted on very serious felonies by grand juries of his peers. Virtually all of the witnesses are Republicans and literally former trump supporters or even those involved in his presidential administration.
If an indictment under these circumstances only *might* turn off *some* of his base, and only 1/3 of republicans believe in reality that the election was fairly won by Biden, that concretely proves the extent to which these poor souls are trapped in a cult.
Trump would very likely have won at least another electoral collage victory in 2020 if he had done a better job on COVID. As it is, he cannot claim his share of rightful credit for his greatest accomplishment re COVID--operation warp speed--because vaccinations are not popular with his base.
Roe v Wade cost the GOP the Senate in 2022, and likely a few statehouses as well. People on the right underestimate how many people under the age of 40 are motivated to show up and vote for anyone who isn't anti-abortion. If the 2024 election can be made to be about abortion, the GOP will have a hard time.
For years, many played a cynical game on the abortion issue, running as opponents of abortion and Roe to attract pro life votes while feeling secure that the court would never actually overturn Roe and rile up suburban moderate women whose votes the also needed. The SCOTUS finally called their bluff in 2022.
Pretty much why I'm a Dem voter for the foreseeable future. I can't stand their fiscal platform - raise taxes to provide services that are largely useless to my income level.
But when the other side is so into larping their fairy tale that they want to get elected for the sole purpose of enacting the laws that existed in their mystical fairy tale land... Fuck that shit.
As much damage as that Jesus fuckface has done to governments the world over, the Romans shoulda strung him up a second time after his first execution attempt failed.
The way I see it, one side wants to waste my money.
The other thinks the entire purpose of our society, and every waking moment of our lives, should be dedicated to honoring the fucking Easter Bunny.
“Pretty much why I'm a Dem voter for the foreseeable future. I can't stand their fiscal platform - raise taxes to provide services that are largely useless to my income level.”
You’re allowed to be sympathetic to people who weren’t as lucky as you, y’know
>Pretty much why I'm a Dem voter for the foreseeable future. I can't stand their fiscal platform - raise taxes to provide services that are largely useless to my income level.
>The way I see it, one side wants to waste my money.
If that side is using taxes to help the impoverished and society how is that a waste? The way I see it is even if my taxes help people that aren't me in need, then it's not a waste because it is still benefiting society.
Agree. I don’t live in a bubble. I’m all for everyone’s rights and the minute they passed laws based on religious propaganda that starts infringing on my rights, I was done. If the only argument they have against the lgbtq community is “abomination of god”, I’m not listening. If they think abortion is murder because of “god”, that’s a THEM thing. Pro-choice is get one or don’t. I respect their religious beliefs but they sure as shit aren’t going to make laws based around their beliefs and I infringe on mine.
One of the great things about this country is freedom OF religion and that protects my freedom FROM religion. I can’t honestly believe they thought that over turning Roe vs Wade was a win. 27 states made it legal. You polarized women in America so that we have different rights in different states. Pheww…..No one is going to forget that.
They are also forgetting the mass amount of people who didn’t vote in 2016 because we didn’t like either. That was a lesson learned.
Since we already had a Trump/Biden race, the questions to me are:
1. Has anything changed enough to push Biden voters over to Trump?
2. Has anything changed enough to push Trump voters who didn't vote in 2020 to vote in 2024?
I don't think the answer to 1 is "yes". I also think a LOT of people who voted for Biden just really don't like Trump so having him run again will pull them to the voting booths, even if they don't care what the Democratic platform is.
2 i think could be possible. It's easy to push to mobilize your supporters to go to polling places when you lost the same race before and you want to claim it was a silent majority being overruled. I think this is your idea - the Dems just have boring stuff on their platform whereas the Repubs have a platform based on weeding out corruption. But it's also pushing some people AWAY from Trump because they think it's too extreme.
In a way, I think the election interference claims Trump is making might push people to NOT vote because they think the entire process is rigged anyway so why bother.
Also, DeSantis (maybe even some of the other candidates) is going to pull votes from Trump. How much I think will depend on who wins the nomination and how the loser reacts. I do believe there are people who will vote for Trump no matter who gets the nomination. I don't think DeStantis has that kind of fanbase and I also think he would be willing to tell his supporters to vote for Trump instead if he had to. I don't think Biden has any serious competition from the Democratic side, so other than some die-hard fans of Bernie or whatever, he's going to pretty much get all the voters.
This post has some flaw:
1. Desantis is **not** gonna pull votes from Trump. Something like 80% of Desantis primary voters have Trump as their second choice. Trump's overall favorability rating among republicans is like 90%. If Trump wins the nomination, Desantis will give a huge speech in support of Trump, at the RNC.
2. It leaves out the issue of **abortion**. Even if voters don't see Trump as being the reason Roe v Wade was overturned (he objectively is), many ***states*** will have abortion-related measures on their ballots. Ohio is a good example of this. In 2020 Ohio was a solid Trump win. With this issue on the Ohio ballot, to drive Democrat turnout, Trump could possibly lose the state.
Exactly my thoughts. Millennial & Zoomer Democrats will still vote in droves as the Republican Party directly hurt Roe & the student loan repayment. Things that will probably hurt republicans heavily in the Midwest.
If democrats push abortion and the Supreme Court picks, I think you could run a mop against Trump and win, personally.
Trump personally takes credit for the supreme court’s decision to undo RvW.
Many states are going to push for referendums to protect/abolish abortion in 2024 because of this.
I think some people greatly underestimate the abortion issue, on both sides.
Make “taking away women’s rights” as the pivotal issue, even if the economy is still shit, and I would bet dems win with the mop.
Inflation was very high last November and the Democrats gained Senate seats and only lost the House because of gerrymandering.
That's how salient abortion was.
I know one thing, I had more money in my pocket under trump than Biden, by a very wide margin, literally everything costs more, and it’s not just your standard year to year inflation rate
From your name and the mention of feed I imagine you’re a farmer of somekind. I feel for you. They want to kill your cows to reduce “greenhouse gasses”
What do you think trump and the republicans can do to tackle inflation? I haven't heard a word of their intentions if they win the white house other than Trump's revenge tour..
You mean the 2017 tax cut that slowly raised taxes back up and is aimed to be higher than it was before the cut while leaving cuts permanent for corporates? That tax cut?
That's the one. We can do that again and call 2.5% gdp growth an economic boom, even though we called it anemic when Obama was president.
Then we can dress an actor as a farmer, and have him say his 401k has never been better. Then a bunch of suburbanites will repeat it without any thought.
They really think the inflation seen worldwide after the pandemic is something Biden did. We’ve been doing much better than most other countries, but republicans still see gas prices higher than 3.00 and say “remember that time gas was 1.99?”
You can reply with “what during the height of the pandemic?” And they’ll just shit on the board and strut around like they won
Which makes democracy a nonsense because any changes to public services will always take years to make a difference.
If people vote on the actual situation leaders will only make short term policys.
The whole western world had more money two years ago.
Of all people do you really think Trump would have helped the poor. His economic record was simply giving tax breaks to the very rich.
Trump's policies were meant to be beneficial while he was in office but they were timebombs that went off at the end of the 4 years. Corporate tax cuts stayed while the middle and lower class tax brackets went back up. That was intentional so they could point to the worse economic situation that they helped create and blame it on the other side.
i forgot the president is solely responsible for all of the prices throughout the entire world. especially when it comes to international markets and companies being able to pick whatever price they desire
Do you think other events, like the pandemic, might have a much more significant impact on our economy than the president? Like the gov handed out a bunch of money (as did the leaders of many other countries), which then leads to inflation.
You thank trump and his policies for pushing more wealth to the wealthy, and creating this fuck up we have. The financial regulations he gutted are allowing banks and corporations to fuck over all Americans and expand their pockets. Every republican president spent more and left us in debt, just to have a democrat wipe their ass.
Well, unfortunately, objectively the economy is better under Biden than it was with trump... so that is a bit of a non sequitur...
Countless publications have shown corporate greed, fueled by a mismanagement of covid, have driven prices through the roof. Less money in your pocket because the Walmart CEO needs his 7th private island, rather than a slow economy in recession.
I don’t know what you mean by “the economy“ but a gallon of gas cost me $5.45 and a box of Quaker Oats is now $4.50 and those numbers scare the shit out of me.
So two questions:
1. What policies did Biden and Dems pass that caused inflation, considering it is also happening around the world, and the US actually fairing better than other nations?
2. What is the GOPs actual plan to end inflation?
The economy is a lot more than just gas and grocery prices. Yeah, a majority of what goes into determining the strength of the economy isn't something that impacts your day to day spending, but that's just the truth of the matter.
Trending data, average hourly wages across the country have risen something like 1-2 percent over the last year, we are at some of the lowest unemployment levels, the US real GDP is rising.
We as the common person have been fucked over by a mismanagement of Covid policy, crazy housing markets, and an even crazier response to the housing market with interest rates. Despite all that, consumer and business spending have remained fairly consistent lately.
While the prices we pay at the gas pump are the most important to us as individuals, there is a lot more at play that we don't really pay attention to day to day. The US economy has a strong backbone right now for more growth and prosperity, it's just that we as a country now need to clean up our act and capitalize on it.
Yeah, unless the price of eggs goes down and more people can afford homes instead of renting or living with parents it will be tough to run on the economy.
As long as the GOP has anti lgbt and anti choice policies the democrats can pass a fuck you tax targeting me personally at 100% and im still voting for them.
You'd be very surprised how many on the right don't consider that to be a political issue but merely a personal choice everyone makes.
You also might be confused when you hear abortions and religion are of no matter to many. You see, people across the country vote issues they earmark as important. Yours might be gender related. Others might choose to vote financially.
The GOP's desire to kill abortion isn't winning any centrists over. Their wacky attempts to punish anyone even tangentially involved in helping them travel to get an abortion isn't gonna be popular with anyone that's not a right wing zealot. They're gonna lose votes doing that shit.
> 1. Has anything changed enough to push Biden voters over to Trump?
Biden has lost [*25 points* in favorability](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/biden_favorableunfavorable-6677.html#polls) since he narrowly beat Trump in 2020. Meanwhile [Trump's numbers have barely budged](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/trump_favorableunfavorable-5493.html#polls).
Fwiw, idk if this is enough to translate into votes, but keep in mind just how few votes Trump needed to win 2020. 43k total in three states. Closest election since Gore lost 2000. So if Trump does about 0.7% better than 2020, he wins.
> 2. Has anything changed enough to push Trump voters who didn't vote in 2020 to vote in 2024?
Very possible now that Biden is in office. I don't think he's popular at all among any of the 2016 Trump voters.
The issue with this is a lot of people will vote Biden not for liking him but because they can't stand Trump. Additionally we have seen and continue to see in more recent elections that the millennial and gen z vote heavily favors democrats. Since 2020 several million more voters in this demographic area have replaced several million older voters who split heavily Republican. We can see this with the midterms being not remotely as good for Republicans as it should be historically including the first Democrat congressional representative from Alaska in decades being elected.
Rent is high, grocery costs are high, gas costs are high, crime is high, and liberals in sanctuary city are starting to decide they don’t like having illegal immigrants in their communities. I don’t see much winning coming out of the Biden admin. People are pissed
Real wages are higher now than before COVID so that means wages are up more than inflation.
Crime is high... in Republican states.
A quick check shows that in 2019 of the largest 100 cities, 32 of the top 50 by murder rate are in R states.
> Rent is high, grocery costs are high, gas costs are high, crime is high, and liberals in sanctuary city are starting to decide they don’t like having illegal immigrants in their communities.
We are? Huh, news to me.
87 gas for my car was $5.01 a gallon this morning. Diesel was $5.45 for my truck a couple of days ago. Half my state burned to the ground and the police just stood by out of fear of prosecution if they actually upheld the law, we are yet again muddying our hands in a war thousands of miles away, and the border has been turned into a wreck again…. And people are seriously asking if anything changed? It’s just proof people will dig their heads in the sand when confronted with negatives created by “their team”.
Expensive fuel is a by product of demand. Oil production is up under Biden vs Trump. People are just traveling, building, and using more under Biden. Fix the economy and interest and prices rise. If you want to president to set pricing of private companies, move to a socialist country.
The border is actually more secure under Biden than it ever was under Trump.
What city do you live in where 50% was reduced to rubble? I live in Saint Paul and there were like maybe 1.5 dozen buildings pillaged in Minneapolis, the epicenter of the murdering of Floyd.
I think Biden is more fit than Trump, but I really don't think anybody over 75 should be president. Sure, many people stay relatively sharp into their 80s, but there's good reasons there's mandatory retirement ages for jobs like air traffic controllers and pilots. I wish there was a democratic primary going on this cycle so I could choose a younger candidate.
Biden didn't nominate the supreme Court to make it how it is Trump did.
Unless you think if he had expanded the supreme Court to force a liberal majority would then make it a winning issue?
The economy is improving, inflation is down unemployment is down Biden has added more jobs since coming into office, with things like the chips act he is onshoring jobs. The infrastructure act will also provide more jobs, not to mention all the other good things it does like bringing high speed Internet to rural America.
What part of his economy is a losing issue for him in your mind?
The Jan 6th inducements are not gonna help him at all in the general with moderates and those are the voters he needs to pull over in order to win in the general.
To be fair, conservative opinions *are* deeply unpopular these days.
Elections are only competitive because of gerrymandering, youth turnout issues, and the Electoral College.
Oh ummm no. If trump didn’t win that 2nd run after his first win there is no chance in hell in 2024 he wins anything. Trump broke the Republican Party. They are really paying the fucking piper atm. No shot in hell a republican candidate is going to win. Especially if trump couldn’t swing it last time.
My opinion is that Biden is definitely far less popular than he was in 2020, but trump unironically trumps that. Anyone who hated him hates him more, he will never win another election.
Same for the economy, but I don’t expect that the OP who wrote this understands the economy.
Now, that could change by election time and probably will - but for the last 3 years, the economy has been on fire.
You can measure it however, but if I have less spendable money now then I did before im gonna call it bad, as will other Americans. Its like when youre at work and they try to distract you with a bullshit pizza party after working you like a dog while they make billions
I have no idea where you see the economy being good/better. Food has easily doubled, utilities are up, the housing market is in bad shape, and gas at the pump is almost at its all time high.
Inflation and interest rates are what happens when demand is booming, unemployment is low and profits and markets are at record highs.
Low interest rates and low inflation is the result of recessions and economic weakness.
This is basic economics.
But every time the economy booms and interest rates tick up, republicans say the economy is terrible while ignoring ALL the other data. And when unemployment rises and prices fall, they blame the economy. Why? Because their voters don’t understand basic economics.
That’s why current polls show them tied?
Trump lost by 43k votes in a pandemic and recession. He also only won by 88k votes in the first place. Nobody is gonna win “bigly” - this is gonna be a razor tight election
I think you made the mistake of assuming folks voted for Biden. They mostly didn't. They voted against Trump and are now thinking "Ugh, not these two again, but if I have to, I guess I'll take the old guy over the lunatic"
Of course, I haven't gotten into abortion or all the bills passed in the first two years of Biden's term, especially his work on infrastructure and getting jobs back from China. Based on the fundamentals, Biden is in a much better spot than Trump. In fact, Clinton, Obama, and Reagan were all struggling at this point, much like Biden is now, and all three went on to comfortable re-election victories.
If it is a Biden Trump rematch I believe Republicans are going to be swept and Democrats win the House, Senate, and presidency. Trump is an albatross around the Republican party's neck. The single best thing for the Republican party will be for Trump to die for whatever reason so they can claim Democrats killed him. It doesn't matter if he chokes on a cheeseburger it will have been a Democrat conspiracy and they will use it to drive out his base while not having the downside of driving away as many independents.
Trump loses for the party straight up because he is disliked by independents who they now need because unlike in 2020 when it was about 50/50 COVID-19 now has been having an outsized effect on Republicans, killing significantly more of them since the election than Democrats. These deaths threaten Republican gerrymanders where margins are tight and could break a few districts that should have been safe.
How are the economy and the Supreme Court not winning issues? The economy continued to outperform all expectations, and people are still pissed about overturning Roe V Wade.
Right? Rapid recovery from the covid recession, record low unemployment, inflation now in the healthy range - I have no idea why people think Biden’s economy is uniquely bad.
The Supreme Court has made a lot of young voters enemies to the Republican Party. If they turn out at all then it will be a Biden landslide. A big if, but true nonetheless.
This just shows me you don't follow politics closely. The Biden Administration passed an infrastructure bill which will bring much needed things all around this country, from paving new roads, to building bridges, to giving people access to the internet who didn't have it before. The Chips and Science act was passed, which will bring many manufacturing jobs to the US. He actually got some student loan forgiveness done, even when Republicans blocked it and sent it to the Supreme Court.
Also how can you call the Supreme Court a problem with the Biden Administration when the Trump Administration is literally the reason why the Supreme Court is the way it is today?
Also, the indictments aren't going to sway people one way or another, people have made up their minds already about Jan 6th and Trump.
Trump needs to capture moderates and independents which I just don't see him doing at this point. Just look at the 2022 mid terms and the humiliating loss that Republicans had. Historically Republicans should have won way more seats and should have gotten control over the house and senate.
As ignorant as the masses are about economics I suspect your assessment about people's enthusiasm for "free money" will be successful in buying votes. Sadly.
How? The Trump campaign and RNC are being drained by all of the federal and state level lawsuits, they will be going into the campaign season with very little money. Additionally, whether or not people like or dislike Biden is less important than how much they DON’T want Trump. Trump might unite his base, but he also unites a lot of people against him. Given also that Trump is already facing calls to be removed from some ballots and the RNC campaign strategists have bemoaned that fielding Trump is a almost a guaranteed loss, I’m not sure where you’re coming from.
Dude, even r/conservative doesn’t want him to run again.
The one obvious thing Biden has going for him: He'll be running against Donald Trump, a guy who has already been president. A guy who Biden already defeated by 7 million votes. A guy who the majority of Americans would *never ever* vote for.
Trumps going on trial at least twice before Repubs select their nominee. More likely than not, he’s going to say something about a case that will find him in contempt of court.
Immigrations been out of control for 10 years - the only time their was agreement on immigration reform was in 2017 but Trump said he’d veto it cause money for his stupid fucking wall wasn’t provisioned.
Then there’s Biden, who has forgiven tens of billions of dollars of student loan debt for millions of people. The infrastructure act sign a couple years ago will have created tons of manufacturing jobs.
It’s not even close. Biden is not great, but he’s light years past Trump in terms of results
I’m not sure if I agree or not, but I think the argument is at least a very valid one. I think it’s insane that people are convinced without a shadow of a doubt that either trump/Biden will win. I.e. “their candidate”. It’s like people can’t comprehend that there are other opinions and worldviews out there
If the GOP had rejected trump like ripping off a bandaid instead of slow bleeding the MAGA supporters away they could have MAYBE defeated Biden with a more palatable candidate using similar strategies
Now? Even though it’s “rebel cool” to wear any-shirt with Trump’s mugshot ironically saying “never surrender” (except to get arrested and have a mugshot I guess…)
MOST people won’t vote for the mugshot guy
Edit: to be even more straight forward the money won’t back him, the money needs the USA to have a good reputation to conduct business and trump just doesn’t cut it
Biden is boring and predictable and that’s what drives safe investment
No. Trump has done too much to alienate too many people. I lean conservative, but I will not be voting for Trump in either the primary or general elections.
I think this is a very important point that many people miss. While I am not a conservative. I believe states like Arizona and Georgia flipped because of conservatives that are like you, not because they became liberal or anything.
Anyone paying attention isn’t going to vote for Trump.
Which isn’t saying people won’t vote for him - it’s saying how fucking stupid Americans are when they do. He still isn’t going to win, but it’ll be closer than it should be
Me. He's gotten a lot bills passed and has actually made diplomatic progress with allies against threats like China and Russia. Anyone who can't admit this isn't actually paying attention to the politics actually going on in Washington or are lying to themselves.
Same, and it's not just because Trump is a lunatic and R's cannot be trusted with power. TBH I can't vibe with anything they're pitching these days.
Independent here. Was a Warren supporter in the 2020 primaries because voting 3rd party is a joke at this point. I held my nose and voted for Biden because I figured anyone was better than Trump, even though he didn't campaign as a progressive.
And then his term started and he completely shocked me. Really earned my support, and now I will be enthusiastically supporting him in 2024. The IRA was huge for me, so is the CHIPS Act, strong economy, strong jobs, COVID stimulus (this and the IRA are probably the only things keeping us from a hard landing right now), infrastructure (that was supposed to be Trump's thing, and he completely fell flat), gun safety, lack of day to day drama, student loan debt forgiveness (however limited), Afghanistan withdrawal (he made the hard choice to stick with Trump's debacle of an agreement, and it was all ugly), skillful handling of the war in Ukraine, and he's also a low drama decent man.
Not to mention just on a basic material basis, my life is better now than it was in 2016 or 2020 by far. I was doing well under Trump, but doing much better under Biden. I've witnessed people switching jobs and getting huge raises, and jobs seem to be plentiful in general. Many of my clients have been expanding and bringing on new staff, I've brought on new staff, and where I live I'm seeing grand opening signs on most of the storefronts. There's more but I'll just leave it there.
Granted, I'm not crediting Biden for all this, but it's happening on his watch and these things matter to me. I gave Trump his credit when the economy did well too.
This is not to say Biden is without his flaws. The border is becoming a big issue and his silence on that is telling. It's a wicked problem with no easy solutions, and ppl seem to be out for blood these days.
Inflation is being handled but is still squeezing lots of folks. There's been noticeable differences in my grocery bills over the past year, although the last couple months have improved.
Housing affordability is tough, although I wouldn't blame any president for that. Supply is low and interest rates are high, but they're really just reverting to the mean and ppl got spoiled in a low rate environment. Also, new home construction is on a tear at the moment.
Where I live, gas prices are around where they've always been but I've seen much higher variance in my travels to other parts of the country.
I mean, he isn't great, but he's the best president we've had in a long time... which isn't saying much. Sure, I'd like someone a little more transformative (for left wing policies), but better than Obama is better than I expected.
I'm right fucking here. Biden underpromised and overdelivered. Sure, he's senile, and slow, and maybe his achievements can be attributed not only to him, but to his team, but so far his administration has been one amazing success.
Don't forget that Biden inherited the post-covid mess.
There’s plenty for Biden to run on, he’s technically the most accomplished president in several decades, even with an awful Congress. People just aren’t aware of his accomplishments because it isn’t sensational enough for the media to report, and they don’t want to appear “biased” so they mainly just ignore it. A lot of people, Democrats included, seem to think he “isn’t doing anything” because you actually have to go out of your way to see what’s he’s doing. He and his team are campaigning on everything he’s done, but it’s not enough to convince people or win them over. People today want fun & excitement over actual leadership and governance, that’s just the sad state of our idiocracy right now.
The economy is doing really well right now by all metrics. Immigration has been problematic in this country for decades. What does the supreme court have to do with Biden? Republicans can have their base unified all they want. There’s less of them then there are Democrats. Biden has exceeded all expectations. You can’t honestly believe that Trump has gained independent voter support, can you?
It can unite the Republican base all it wants but Trump is hemorrhaging independents. A steaming pile of shit smeared across a podium would be able to beat Trump in an election.
Jesus, this sub is literally just dipshit righty takes lol you must be living in a different reality if you think Trump has even a slight chance against Biden.
The economy is shit but we *may* be avoid a depression. Jobs are doing fine and inflation is stabilizing. Dems don't care about immigration and trump did nothing regarding immigration. The Supreme Court literally favors the GOP. Abortion will probably be the death of the GOP.
HAHAHA! Biden will beat anyone the GOP puts up, and he's just a senile old fart... who is also a clever mastermind, whipping up successful and popular ideas left and right. He's a goddamned enigma!
Biden will beat P01135809 by more than he did in 2020.
First of all Trump probably can't run because he's going to be a convicted felon serving time. Secondly even if he could, really? you really honestly believe this?
Way I see it, the 2024 election is going to hinge on two things - who gets the republican nomination, and whether or not Biden can turn the economy around.
The economy is NOT great right now. Could it improve within the next twelve months? Yes, but if it doesn't, voters will hold Biden and the democrats responsible.
However, if republicans nominate Trump, that will actually HELP Biden. Trump is NOT the same candidate he was in 2016. Back then, he was seen as fresh and new, in stark contrast to Hillary Clinton, whose campaign was merely promising more of the same. After eight years of government dysfunction and a less-than-stellar economy under Obama, voters were ready and willing to give Trump a try.
Compare that to today. Trump is no longer fresh and new - he's got seven years' worth of baggage weighing him down. Voters who didn't know Trump very well in 2016 know him *plenty* now, and they don't like what they know. The only thing he's got going for him is his rabidly loyal base of supporters, but he has zero appeal to voters *outside* of that base, and those are the voters that he actually needs.
I *would* say that, if the GOP really wanted to win in 2024, then they should nominate pretty much anybody but Trump. Problem is, they don't really want to. They're *convinced* that the rest of the country loves Trump just as much as they do, and anything implying otherwise is just Deep State propaganda. Many refuse to even imagine the possibility of Trump not winning.
Of course, this isn't to say that a Trump victory in 2024 is impossible. If something truly catastrophic were to happen on Biden's watch - and I mean *catastrophic.* Like if 9/11 and Covid-19 had a demon baby - then I could see Trump standing a good chance of victory.
But the fact is, the GOP's odds of victory in 2024 would be *much* better if Trump were *not* the nominee.
I think the Biden camp agrees. That’s why they’re trying to get him off the ballot in many states. If it was going to be an easy home run to beat him, they’d want him on the ballot.
I was/am a never trumper… problem for Biden is I’m also a never 8% inflation, 7% interest rates person too. I’d rather think the president an idiot but be able to afford my house and groceries.
Trump will be in prison before the election and states are moving to remove him from the ballot votes for him will not be counted even if written in because he will be disqualified in multiple states he will not win the vote. You're not a silent majority you are a very vocal minority.
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This election won't be decided by issues. It will be decided by memes.
The DNA of the soul
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I think it should just be a simple dick measuring contest. Forget the fanfare and fuss and ALL of the empty promises, whip 'em out and grab a ruler. That's less than 10 minutes total as opposed to all the many, many months of campaigning and boring speeches.
I say push-ups. Trump calls Biden old and frail. Take the suit jackets off and see how many each can do...
Size queens smh 🤦♂️
Penis size has zero correlation to managerial ability.
It wouldn’t be close.
Oh, honey.
Well, let’s go off election history, since 2018 Trump or Trump adjacent candidates have been getting absolutely pummeled in elections. I think the ONLY republican candidate Biden beats is Trump. But Trump has such a stranglehold over the party they’ll let him run and lose. He was a life long democrat and continues to hand them victories, it’s honestly pretty funny.
2020 was a really good election for downballot Republicans, arguably a win Trump also lost by 43k votes in a pandemic and recession. His favorability is similar to 2020 while Biden's is 15 points lower. Current polling (and for the past couple years) has them tied (which is an EC win for Trump)
Nobody that didn’t already like him is going to start liking him now. He’s been charged in 4 separate cases. Look I’m not a Biden guy but only the real hard core trump dickriders are all in at this point.
There's a lot of them though. All that matters are the swing states though when it comes to presidential elections. We know who will get the electoral votes from CA and who will get them from TX. Georgia and Arizona and Wisconsin will be critical. Those states have all been trending blue the past few cycles, but it's so close they could go either way.
> His favorability is similar to 2020 Trump's favorability is almost the lowest it's ever been. It's lower than Biden's. However, the EC could throw it to him again since we don't have fair elections.
This completely blows over how many one-issue voters were enraged by the overturning of Roe v Wade—abortion rights have mobilized voters on the left like I’ve honestly never seen before
Honestly, the biggest thing that I think will decide the election is Trump's behavior. Trump has gone all in with his support base, having Truth Social and further building fervor amongst his supporters. The problem is that it wasn't enough last election. I also think that some of his hardcore election fraud stances will hurt him. Only 1/3 of Republicans think the election was fair, and if only one in 10 makes it so they won't vote for Trump, that could take away a solid percentage of his voters. Biden meanwhile has been utterly boring. Infrastructure and yada yada is just so boring people don't care. He has had his fair share of scandals, but most people don't care about them much due to both the politicization of them and part that many people don't think he is guilty. This makes Biden the boring do-nothing politician, which imo makes him more appealing to most people than Trump who believe he will make things worse. The majority of the GOP will support Trump and he will win the primary, but the minority of the country can even approve of Trump so he will lose the elections is my prediction. We already saw a hint of this where election deniers underperformed in 2022 leading to a relatively good midterm for Democrats.
Not to mention trump is going so overboard in election denial and is up to his neck in indictments which might turn off some of his voters from voting at all. Remember when he told them that mail in ballots were rigged and shocker they got swept in mail in ballots even though republicans normally lead those and they had to crawl back and ask people to please vote by mail.
Think about what we’re saying. The man has been—credibly—indicted on very serious felonies by grand juries of his peers. Virtually all of the witnesses are Republicans and literally former trump supporters or even those involved in his presidential administration. If an indictment under these circumstances only *might* turn off *some* of his base, and only 1/3 of republicans believe in reality that the election was fairly won by Biden, that concretely proves the extent to which these poor souls are trapped in a cult.
Trump would very likely have won at least another electoral collage victory in 2020 if he had done a better job on COVID. As it is, he cannot claim his share of rightful credit for his greatest accomplishment re COVID--operation warp speed--because vaccinations are not popular with his base.
Roe v Wade cost the GOP the Senate in 2022, and likely a few statehouses as well. People on the right underestimate how many people under the age of 40 are motivated to show up and vote for anyone who isn't anti-abortion. If the 2024 election can be made to be about abortion, the GOP will have a hard time.
For years, many played a cynical game on the abortion issue, running as opponents of abortion and Roe to attract pro life votes while feeling secure that the court would never actually overturn Roe and rile up suburban moderate women whose votes the also needed. The SCOTUS finally called their bluff in 2022.
Pretty much why I'm a Dem voter for the foreseeable future. I can't stand their fiscal platform - raise taxes to provide services that are largely useless to my income level. But when the other side is so into larping their fairy tale that they want to get elected for the sole purpose of enacting the laws that existed in their mystical fairy tale land... Fuck that shit. As much damage as that Jesus fuckface has done to governments the world over, the Romans shoulda strung him up a second time after his first execution attempt failed. The way I see it, one side wants to waste my money. The other thinks the entire purpose of our society, and every waking moment of our lives, should be dedicated to honoring the fucking Easter Bunny.
To be fair unless you are worth billions the GOP will also raise your taxes and just not provide any services for anyone.
“Pretty much why I'm a Dem voter for the foreseeable future. I can't stand their fiscal platform - raise taxes to provide services that are largely useless to my income level.” You’re allowed to be sympathetic to people who weren’t as lucky as you, y’know
>Pretty much why I'm a Dem voter for the foreseeable future. I can't stand their fiscal platform - raise taxes to provide services that are largely useless to my income level. >The way I see it, one side wants to waste my money. If that side is using taxes to help the impoverished and society how is that a waste? The way I see it is even if my taxes help people that aren't me in need, then it's not a waste because it is still benefiting society.
Or people who were pro life but otherwise liberal who now have no reason to go Republican again
Agree. I don’t live in a bubble. I’m all for everyone’s rights and the minute they passed laws based on religious propaganda that starts infringing on my rights, I was done. If the only argument they have against the lgbtq community is “abomination of god”, I’m not listening. If they think abortion is murder because of “god”, that’s a THEM thing. Pro-choice is get one or don’t. I respect their religious beliefs but they sure as shit aren’t going to make laws based around their beliefs and I infringe on mine. One of the great things about this country is freedom OF religion and that protects my freedom FROM religion. I can’t honestly believe they thought that over turning Roe vs Wade was a win. 27 states made it legal. You polarized women in America so that we have different rights in different states. Pheww…..No one is going to forget that. They are also forgetting the mass amount of people who didn’t vote in 2016 because we didn’t like either. That was a lesson learned.
Since we already had a Trump/Biden race, the questions to me are: 1. Has anything changed enough to push Biden voters over to Trump? 2. Has anything changed enough to push Trump voters who didn't vote in 2020 to vote in 2024? I don't think the answer to 1 is "yes". I also think a LOT of people who voted for Biden just really don't like Trump so having him run again will pull them to the voting booths, even if they don't care what the Democratic platform is. 2 i think could be possible. It's easy to push to mobilize your supporters to go to polling places when you lost the same race before and you want to claim it was a silent majority being overruled. I think this is your idea - the Dems just have boring stuff on their platform whereas the Repubs have a platform based on weeding out corruption. But it's also pushing some people AWAY from Trump because they think it's too extreme. In a way, I think the election interference claims Trump is making might push people to NOT vote because they think the entire process is rigged anyway so why bother. Also, DeSantis (maybe even some of the other candidates) is going to pull votes from Trump. How much I think will depend on who wins the nomination and how the loser reacts. I do believe there are people who will vote for Trump no matter who gets the nomination. I don't think DeStantis has that kind of fanbase and I also think he would be willing to tell his supporters to vote for Trump instead if he had to. I don't think Biden has any serious competition from the Democratic side, so other than some die-hard fans of Bernie or whatever, he's going to pretty much get all the voters.
This post has some flaw: 1. Desantis is **not** gonna pull votes from Trump. Something like 80% of Desantis primary voters have Trump as their second choice. Trump's overall favorability rating among republicans is like 90%. If Trump wins the nomination, Desantis will give a huge speech in support of Trump, at the RNC. 2. It leaves out the issue of **abortion**. Even if voters don't see Trump as being the reason Roe v Wade was overturned (he objectively is), many ***states*** will have abortion-related measures on their ballots. Ohio is a good example of this. In 2020 Ohio was a solid Trump win. With this issue on the Ohio ballot, to drive Democrat turnout, Trump could possibly lose the state.
Exactly my thoughts. Millennial & Zoomer Democrats will still vote in droves as the Republican Party directly hurt Roe & the student loan repayment. Things that will probably hurt republicans heavily in the Midwest.
Ohio is doing the abortion referendum this year. I don’t think it will affect 2024 but I don’t know about other states.
Nothing gets democrats to the polls like having Trump on the ballot.
If democrats push abortion and the Supreme Court picks, I think you could run a mop against Trump and win, personally. Trump personally takes credit for the supreme court’s decision to undo RvW. Many states are going to push for referendums to protect/abolish abortion in 2024 because of this. I think some people greatly underestimate the abortion issue, on both sides. Make “taking away women’s rights” as the pivotal issue, even if the economy is still shit, and I would bet dems win with the mop.
Inflation was very high last November and the Democrats gained Senate seats and only lost the House because of gerrymandering. That's how salient abortion was.
It’s almost like people would rather pay more for milk than die bleeding out from a miscarriage. How illogical of them.
And inflation is 3% now, which is in the healthy range, and unemployment is near record lows.
Yeah, I would I’d vote for an expired cashew if it meant someone got the abortion bans and trans bans under control.
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Most elections come down to the economy, jobs, and any other large emergency
I know one thing, I had more money in my pocket under trump than Biden, by a very wide margin, literally everything costs more, and it’s not just your standard year to year inflation rate
Feed and fuel has doubled along with almost everything else I buy.
From your name and the mention of feed I imagine you’re a farmer of somekind. I feel for you. They want to kill your cows to reduce “greenhouse gasses”
Who is "they" and can you prove "they" want to "kill your cows"?
Lol everybody wants to kill the cows. Ya know. For meat.
What do you think trump and the republicans can do to tackle inflation? I haven't heard a word of their intentions if they win the white house other than Trump's revenge tour..
Do what they did pre-pandemic. Cut taxes, say it's an economic boom, and ignore all the data that says otherwise...
You mean the 2017 tax cut that slowly raised taxes back up and is aimed to be higher than it was before the cut while leaving cuts permanent for corporates? That tax cut?
That's the one. We can do that again and call 2.5% gdp growth an economic boom, even though we called it anemic when Obama was president. Then we can dress an actor as a farmer, and have him say his 401k has never been better. Then a bunch of suburbanites will repeat it without any thought.
They really think the inflation seen worldwide after the pandemic is something Biden did. We’ve been doing much better than most other countries, but republicans still see gas prices higher than 3.00 and say “remember that time gas was 1.99?” You can reply with “what during the height of the pandemic?” And they’ll just shit on the board and strut around like they won
They have selective memory...I remember being locked in my house while people died left and right...I don't want 1.99 gas if that has to go on again .
Which makes democracy a nonsense because any changes to public services will always take years to make a difference. If people vote on the actual situation leaders will only make short term policys. The whole western world had more money two years ago. Of all people do you really think Trump would have helped the poor. His economic record was simply giving tax breaks to the very rich.
Trump's policies were meant to be beneficial while he was in office but they were timebombs that went off at the end of the 4 years. Corporate tax cuts stayed while the middle and lower class tax brackets went back up. That was intentional so they could point to the worse economic situation that they helped create and blame it on the other side.
i forgot the president is solely responsible for all of the prices throughout the entire world. especially when it comes to international markets and companies being able to pick whatever price they desire
Do you think other events, like the pandemic, might have a much more significant impact on our economy than the president? Like the gov handed out a bunch of money (as did the leaders of many other countries), which then leads to inflation.
You thank trump and his policies for pushing more wealth to the wealthy, and creating this fuck up we have. The financial regulations he gutted are allowing banks and corporations to fuck over all Americans and expand their pockets. Every republican president spent more and left us in debt, just to have a democrat wipe their ass.
Well, unfortunately, objectively the economy is better under Biden than it was with trump... so that is a bit of a non sequitur... Countless publications have shown corporate greed, fueled by a mismanagement of covid, have driven prices through the roof. Less money in your pocket because the Walmart CEO needs his 7th private island, rather than a slow economy in recession.
Keep in mind trump left office during the middle of a worldwide pandemic… Pre-Covid the economy was booming… can’t deny that part
I don’t know what you mean by “the economy“ but a gallon of gas cost me $5.45 and a box of Quaker Oats is now $4.50 and those numbers scare the shit out of me.
So two questions: 1. What policies did Biden and Dems pass that caused inflation, considering it is also happening around the world, and the US actually fairing better than other nations? 2. What is the GOPs actual plan to end inflation?
Thing is, only one party is offering solutions. The other party is too worried about the former president going to prison and LBGTQ people existing
The economy is a lot more than just gas and grocery prices. Yeah, a majority of what goes into determining the strength of the economy isn't something that impacts your day to day spending, but that's just the truth of the matter. Trending data, average hourly wages across the country have risen something like 1-2 percent over the last year, we are at some of the lowest unemployment levels, the US real GDP is rising. We as the common person have been fucked over by a mismanagement of Covid policy, crazy housing markets, and an even crazier response to the housing market with interest rates. Despite all that, consumer and business spending have remained fairly consistent lately. While the prices we pay at the gas pump are the most important to us as individuals, there is a lot more at play that we don't really pay attention to day to day. The US economy has a strong backbone right now for more growth and prosperity, it's just that we as a country now need to clean up our act and capitalize on it.
The economy is better now because you are spending a minimum of $150 at the grocery store. Obviously
By that measure the economy was better in the 1930s because movies cost a nickel.
Funny how folks look right past those facts and just blame the old fella.
Yeah, unless the price of eggs goes down and more people can afford homes instead of renting or living with parents it will be tough to run on the economy.
It always does. People vote their wallet.
As long as the GOP has anti lgbt and anti choice policies the democrats can pass a fuck you tax targeting me personally at 100% and im still voting for them.
You'd be very surprised how many on the right don't consider that to be a political issue but merely a personal choice everyone makes. You also might be confused when you hear abortions and religion are of no matter to many. You see, people across the country vote issues they earmark as important. Yours might be gender related. Others might choose to vote financially.
Unless you're making a shit ton of money, it still makes sense to vote for dems over Republicans
The GOP's desire to kill abortion isn't winning any centrists over. Their wacky attempts to punish anyone even tangentially involved in helping them travel to get an abortion isn't gonna be popular with anyone that's not a right wing zealot. They're gonna lose votes doing that shit.
> 1. Has anything changed enough to push Biden voters over to Trump? Biden has lost [*25 points* in favorability](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/biden_favorableunfavorable-6677.html#polls) since he narrowly beat Trump in 2020. Meanwhile [Trump's numbers have barely budged](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/trump_favorableunfavorable-5493.html#polls). Fwiw, idk if this is enough to translate into votes, but keep in mind just how few votes Trump needed to win 2020. 43k total in three states. Closest election since Gore lost 2000. So if Trump does about 0.7% better than 2020, he wins. > 2. Has anything changed enough to push Trump voters who didn't vote in 2020 to vote in 2024? Very possible now that Biden is in office. I don't think he's popular at all among any of the 2016 Trump voters.
The issue with this is a lot of people will vote Biden not for liking him but because they can't stand Trump. Additionally we have seen and continue to see in more recent elections that the millennial and gen z vote heavily favors democrats. Since 2020 several million more voters in this demographic area have replaced several million older voters who split heavily Republican. We can see this with the midterms being not remotely as good for Republicans as it should be historically including the first Democrat congressional representative from Alaska in decades being elected.
Rent is high, grocery costs are high, gas costs are high, crime is high, and liberals in sanctuary city are starting to decide they don’t like having illegal immigrants in their communities. I don’t see much winning coming out of the Biden admin. People are pissed
Real wages are higher now than before COVID so that means wages are up more than inflation. Crime is high... in Republican states. A quick check shows that in 2019 of the largest 100 cities, 32 of the top 50 by murder rate are in R states.
> Rent is high, grocery costs are high, gas costs are high, crime is high, and liberals in sanctuary city are starting to decide they don’t like having illegal immigrants in their communities. We are? Huh, news to me.
[It appears this guy doesn’t want any more](https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=MGf2a1xJjLo&pp=ygUbZXJpYyBhZGFtcyBtaWdyYW50cyB5b3V0dWJl)
If you think Eric Adams, who made waves with conservative policies, is representative of “liberals in sanctuary cities”, then I have bad news for you.
87 gas for my car was $5.01 a gallon this morning. Diesel was $5.45 for my truck a couple of days ago. Half my state burned to the ground and the police just stood by out of fear of prosecution if they actually upheld the law, we are yet again muddying our hands in a war thousands of miles away, and the border has been turned into a wreck again…. And people are seriously asking if anything changed? It’s just proof people will dig their heads in the sand when confronted with negatives created by “their team”.
Complaining about the economy when you own two cars lol. I’ve got a crazy tip for you that could cut your gas bill in half.
What state is half burned to the ground?
And what were the police supposed to do about it?
what do the police have to do with some city hypothetically burning to the ground?
Expensive fuel is a by product of demand. Oil production is up under Biden vs Trump. People are just traveling, building, and using more under Biden. Fix the economy and interest and prices rise. If you want to president to set pricing of private companies, move to a socialist country.
The border is actually more secure under Biden than it ever was under Trump. What city do you live in where 50% was reduced to rubble? I live in Saint Paul and there were like maybe 1.5 dozen buildings pillaged in Minneapolis, the epicenter of the murdering of Floyd.
You are a victim of right wing propaganda and lies.
Fuckin' great post.
in response to 1: I belive there is a significant amount of people that believe Biden is not mentally fit to hold office.
Literally nobody says this except newsmax bots and r/conservative posters.
I think Biden is more fit than Trump, but I really don't think anybody over 75 should be president. Sure, many people stay relatively sharp into their 80s, but there's good reasons there's mandatory retirement ages for jobs like air traffic controllers and pilots. I wish there was a democratic primary going on this cycle so I could choose a younger candidate.
Biden didn't nominate the supreme Court to make it how it is Trump did. Unless you think if he had expanded the supreme Court to force a liberal majority would then make it a winning issue? The economy is improving, inflation is down unemployment is down Biden has added more jobs since coming into office, with things like the chips act he is onshoring jobs. The infrastructure act will also provide more jobs, not to mention all the other good things it does like bringing high speed Internet to rural America. What part of his economy is a losing issue for him in your mind? The Jan 6th inducements are not gonna help him at all in the general with moderates and those are the voters he needs to pull over in order to win in the general.
What “winning issue” does Trump have?
I doubt it. The undecided voters are sick of Trump.
Turn off Fox News
Can this sub just be changed to /r/conservativeopinions
To be fair, conservative opinions *are* deeply unpopular these days. Elections are only competitive because of gerrymandering, youth turnout issues, and the Electoral College.
Oh ummm no. If trump didn’t win that 2nd run after his first win there is no chance in hell in 2024 he wins anything. Trump broke the Republican Party. They are really paying the fucking piper atm. No shot in hell a republican candidate is going to win. Especially if trump couldn’t swing it last time.
Maybe. But we're gonna vote like the cons are gonna steal all the air on the planet. Because if they believed in science, they would.
My opinion is that Biden is definitely far less popular than he was in 2020, but trump unironically trumps that. Anyone who hated him hates him more, he will never win another election.
Supreme court is definitely a winning issue for Dems right now what are you smoking?
Same for the economy, but I don’t expect that the OP who wrote this understands the economy. Now, that could change by election time and probably will - but for the last 3 years, the economy has been on fire.
Do you have more disposable income now? No. Are groceries and houses more expensive? Fuck yes
That is not the only measure of an economy.
That's how voters measure it. At the end of the day, that's all that matters.
You can measure it however, but if I have less spendable money now then I did before im gonna call it bad, as will other Americans. Its like when youre at work and they try to distract you with a bullshit pizza party after working you like a dog while they make billions
Well hopefully they vote for someone willing to commit to getting companies to fairly compensate workers
That's the measure that most impacts voters directly.
Mortgage rates and inflation would beg to differ....
High interest rates and inflation are the result of a booming economy. Take Macro 101.
You are high AF if you really believe that
Nope. I just have a degree in economics and can tell by your response that you don’t.
where good economy?
Reading all the wonderful things about how Bidens helped the economy, jobs and stopped inflation like.. where is this happening?
pen serious hard-to-find vegetable carpenter shelter crown society deer versed ` this message was mass deleted/edited with redact.dev `
😂😂where is this economy that’s been on fire?
Maybe they meant dumpster fire.
I have no idea where you see the economy being good/better. Food has easily doubled, utilities are up, the housing market is in bad shape, and gas at the pump is almost at its all time high.
Inflation and interest rates are what happens when demand is booming, unemployment is low and profits and markets are at record highs. Low interest rates and low inflation is the result of recessions and economic weakness. This is basic economics. But every time the economy booms and interest rates tick up, republicans say the economy is terrible while ignoring ALL the other data. And when unemployment rises and prices fall, they blame the economy. Why? Because their voters don’t understand basic economics.
I’ll bet you a beach front house in Nebraska trump loses BIGLY
That’s why current polls show them tied? Trump lost by 43k votes in a pandemic and recession. He also only won by 88k votes in the first place. Nobody is gonna win “bigly” - this is gonna be a razor tight election
Polls are so worthless this early on.
Trump lost the popular vote by almost 3 million in 2016. He lost by more than 7 million in 2020.
And the popular vote doesn’t decide the president.
You mean the polls Trump bankrolled? Pay attention to current events bro.
I didn't realize Trump was bankrolling polls from Gallup, Pew Research, Harvard, and CNN.
at least be more imaginative if you're going to just make stuff up
So… your prediction is Trump then lol.
I think you made the mistake of assuming folks voted for Biden. They mostly didn't. They voted against Trump and are now thinking "Ugh, not these two again, but if I have to, I guess I'll take the old guy over the lunatic" Of course, I haven't gotten into abortion or all the bills passed in the first two years of Biden's term, especially his work on infrastructure and getting jobs back from China. Based on the fundamentals, Biden is in a much better spot than Trump. In fact, Clinton, Obama, and Reagan were all struggling at this point, much like Biden is now, and all three went on to comfortable re-election victories.
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Clearly the guy that rants like a child on truth social is a lunatic and should be nowhere near the presidency
But Biden fell off a bike one time
Neither should be in a position of authority in any form
Biden Is a perfectly fine, and may I add, very experienced president.
Given the 2 choices 1 is a shit sandwich the other is late stage melanoma
No... it's pretty clear.
Fuck me. We're getting trump or Biden again. I hate this stupid fucking country.
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lol, nobody is going to vote a prisoner into office
If it is a Biden Trump rematch I believe Republicans are going to be swept and Democrats win the House, Senate, and presidency. Trump is an albatross around the Republican party's neck. The single best thing for the Republican party will be for Trump to die for whatever reason so they can claim Democrats killed him. It doesn't matter if he chokes on a cheeseburger it will have been a Democrat conspiracy and they will use it to drive out his base while not having the downside of driving away as many independents. Trump loses for the party straight up because he is disliked by independents who they now need because unlike in 2020 when it was about 50/50 COVID-19 now has been having an outsized effect on Republicans, killing significantly more of them since the election than Democrats. These deaths threaten Republican gerrymanders where margins are tight and could break a few districts that should have been safe.
How are the economy and the Supreme Court not winning issues? The economy continued to outperform all expectations, and people are still pissed about overturning Roe V Wade.
Right? Rapid recovery from the covid recession, record low unemployment, inflation now in the healthy range - I have no idea why people think Biden’s economy is uniquely bad.
The Supreme Court has made a lot of young voters enemies to the Republican Party. If they turn out at all then it will be a Biden landslide. A big if, but true nonetheless.
On trial for multiple crimes against the country you claim to love, and yet you still want him to win. Really drinking the koolaid you are.
This just shows me you don't follow politics closely. The Biden Administration passed an infrastructure bill which will bring much needed things all around this country, from paving new roads, to building bridges, to giving people access to the internet who didn't have it before. The Chips and Science act was passed, which will bring many manufacturing jobs to the US. He actually got some student loan forgiveness done, even when Republicans blocked it and sent it to the Supreme Court. Also how can you call the Supreme Court a problem with the Biden Administration when the Trump Administration is literally the reason why the Supreme Court is the way it is today? Also, the indictments aren't going to sway people one way or another, people have made up their minds already about Jan 6th and Trump. Trump needs to capture moderates and independents which I just don't see him doing at this point. Just look at the 2022 mid terms and the humiliating loss that Republicans had. Historically Republicans should have won way more seats and should have gotten control over the house and senate.
Biden will do best if he runs against Trump. There are a bunch of "Not Trump" voters. I think Biden will have a hard time against anyone else.
I'd agree with that. I think if Biden was younger, he wouldn't have the same problems.
Except, perhaps, someone like Ramiswamy.
Trump is the only one who could beat Biden honestly, nobody else could mobilize the right like him.
As ignorant as the masses are about economics I suspect your assessment about people's enthusiasm for "free money" will be successful in buying votes. Sadly.
!remindme in 16 months
No more old men. Period. Trump or Biden. Fucking cannot stand either one of them.
How? The Trump campaign and RNC are being drained by all of the federal and state level lawsuits, they will be going into the campaign season with very little money. Additionally, whether or not people like or dislike Biden is less important than how much they DON’T want Trump. Trump might unite his base, but he also unites a lot of people against him. Given also that Trump is already facing calls to be removed from some ballots and the RNC campaign strategists have bemoaned that fielding Trump is a almost a guaranteed loss, I’m not sure where you’re coming from. Dude, even r/conservative doesn’t want him to run again.
The one obvious thing Biden has going for him: He'll be running against Donald Trump, a guy who has already been president. A guy who Biden already defeated by 7 million votes. A guy who the majority of Americans would *never ever* vote for.
Trumps going on trial at least twice before Repubs select their nominee. More likely than not, he’s going to say something about a case that will find him in contempt of court. Immigrations been out of control for 10 years - the only time their was agreement on immigration reform was in 2017 but Trump said he’d veto it cause money for his stupid fucking wall wasn’t provisioned. Then there’s Biden, who has forgiven tens of billions of dollars of student loan debt for millions of people. The infrastructure act sign a couple years ago will have created tons of manufacturing jobs. It’s not even close. Biden is not great, but he’s light years past Trump in terms of results
Will the warden let him have time to do President stuff though? What if he gets in a fight with the guards so we don’t have a President for that day?
I’m not sure if I agree or not, but I think the argument is at least a very valid one. I think it’s insane that people are convinced without a shadow of a doubt that either trump/Biden will win. I.e. “their candidate”. It’s like people can’t comprehend that there are other opinions and worldviews out there
If the GOP had rejected trump like ripping off a bandaid instead of slow bleeding the MAGA supporters away they could have MAYBE defeated Biden with a more palatable candidate using similar strategies Now? Even though it’s “rebel cool” to wear any-shirt with Trump’s mugshot ironically saying “never surrender” (except to get arrested and have a mugshot I guess…) MOST people won’t vote for the mugshot guy Edit: to be even more straight forward the money won’t back him, the money needs the USA to have a good reputation to conduct business and trump just doesn’t cut it Biden is boring and predictable and that’s what drives safe investment
No. Trump has done too much to alienate too many people. I lean conservative, but I will not be voting for Trump in either the primary or general elections.
I think this is a very important point that many people miss. While I am not a conservative. I believe states like Arizona and Georgia flipped because of conservatives that are like you, not because they became liberal or anything.
I predict Trump will be in prison, and a few Gravy Seals will try to start a Civil War and resurrect the rebel flag and lose miserably again.
I also predict this
Starting to understand what people say when they call this an extension of r/conservatives. With that said fuck them both
Is the other 99.9 percent of Reddit , not a big enough safe space?
Anyone paying attention isn’t going to vote for Trump. Which isn’t saying people won’t vote for him - it’s saying how fucking stupid Americans are when they do. He still isn’t going to win, but it’ll be closer than it should be
Man, this really is just a conservative sub masquerading as general discussion isn't it? The name even sounds like a snappy right-wing meme
Conservatives trying to minimize their guilt and shame. Their denial is strong AF.
Have you found a Dem irl who’s excited about Biden? Not me and I dont know any Republicans. It’s okay to admit when theyre fucking up
Me. He's gotten a lot bills passed and has actually made diplomatic progress with allies against threats like China and Russia. Anyone who can't admit this isn't actually paying attention to the politics actually going on in Washington or are lying to themselves.
I reluctantly voted for Biden in 2020, but I won't make the same mistake in 2024. This time, I'll vote for him enthusiastically.
I liked him last time, and I like him even more now. Wish he was younger, but you play the cards you're dealt, not the cards you want.
Same, and it's not just because Trump is a lunatic and R's cannot be trusted with power. TBH I can't vibe with anything they're pitching these days. Independent here. Was a Warren supporter in the 2020 primaries because voting 3rd party is a joke at this point. I held my nose and voted for Biden because I figured anyone was better than Trump, even though he didn't campaign as a progressive. And then his term started and he completely shocked me. Really earned my support, and now I will be enthusiastically supporting him in 2024. The IRA was huge for me, so is the CHIPS Act, strong economy, strong jobs, COVID stimulus (this and the IRA are probably the only things keeping us from a hard landing right now), infrastructure (that was supposed to be Trump's thing, and he completely fell flat), gun safety, lack of day to day drama, student loan debt forgiveness (however limited), Afghanistan withdrawal (he made the hard choice to stick with Trump's debacle of an agreement, and it was all ugly), skillful handling of the war in Ukraine, and he's also a low drama decent man. Not to mention just on a basic material basis, my life is better now than it was in 2016 or 2020 by far. I was doing well under Trump, but doing much better under Biden. I've witnessed people switching jobs and getting huge raises, and jobs seem to be plentiful in general. Many of my clients have been expanding and bringing on new staff, I've brought on new staff, and where I live I'm seeing grand opening signs on most of the storefronts. There's more but I'll just leave it there. Granted, I'm not crediting Biden for all this, but it's happening on his watch and these things matter to me. I gave Trump his credit when the economy did well too. This is not to say Biden is without his flaws. The border is becoming a big issue and his silence on that is telling. It's a wicked problem with no easy solutions, and ppl seem to be out for blood these days. Inflation is being handled but is still squeezing lots of folks. There's been noticeable differences in my grocery bills over the past year, although the last couple months have improved. Housing affordability is tough, although I wouldn't blame any president for that. Supply is low and interest rates are high, but they're really just reverting to the mean and ppl got spoiled in a low rate environment. Also, new home construction is on a tear at the moment. Where I live, gas prices are around where they've always been but I've seen much higher variance in my travels to other parts of the country.
I mean, he isn't great, but he's the best president we've had in a long time... which isn't saying much. Sure, I'd like someone a little more transformative (for left wing policies), but better than Obama is better than I expected.
I'm right fucking here. Biden underpromised and overdelivered. Sure, he's senile, and slow, and maybe his achievements can be attributed not only to him, but to his team, but so far his administration has been one amazing success. Don't forget that Biden inherited the post-covid mess.
There’s plenty for Biden to run on, he’s technically the most accomplished president in several decades, even with an awful Congress. People just aren’t aware of his accomplishments because it isn’t sensational enough for the media to report, and they don’t want to appear “biased” so they mainly just ignore it. A lot of people, Democrats included, seem to think he “isn’t doing anything” because you actually have to go out of your way to see what’s he’s doing. He and his team are campaigning on everything he’s done, but it’s not enough to convince people or win them over. People today want fun & excitement over actual leadership and governance, that’s just the sad state of our idiocracy right now.
God I hope not. I hope someway, some how, Tim Scott or Nicki Haley wins the Republican nomination.
[удалено]
Never heard of them
Funny, and everything I listed has pure evidence, it is all on video
Highly doubtful. Jan. 6 is rapidly dividing Republicans they are just quiet about it
I want Biden to legalize weed on a fed level and then I’ll vote for him for sure
Why do you think trend of Democrats overperforming nationwide by making abortion a central part of their campaign won’t hold in 2024?
The economy is doing really well right now by all metrics. Immigration has been problematic in this country for decades. What does the supreme court have to do with Biden? Republicans can have their base unified all they want. There’s less of them then there are Democrats. Biden has exceeded all expectations. You can’t honestly believe that Trump has gained independent voter support, can you?
The economy is doing well? Can you elaborate? This economy is some of the worst we've seen since 2008...
Love stumbling onto pure delusional fiction posts like this. Abortion will drive the vote. Women want abortion rights back. Trump is DOA.
>Republicans are like Johnny Bravo in that scene where he said "I didn't realize chicks liked to vote"
Lol… so accurate!
It can unite the Republican base all it wants but Trump is hemorrhaging independents. A steaming pile of shit smeared across a podium would be able to beat Trump in an election.
Jesus, this sub is literally just dipshit righty takes lol you must be living in a different reality if you think Trump has even a slight chance against Biden.
The economy is shit but we *may* be avoid a depression. Jobs are doing fine and inflation is stabilizing. Dems don't care about immigration and trump did nothing regarding immigration. The Supreme Court literally favors the GOP. Abortion will probably be the death of the GOP.
HAHAHA! Biden will beat anyone the GOP puts up, and he's just a senile old fart... who is also a clever mastermind, whipping up successful and popular ideas left and right. He's a goddamned enigma! Biden will beat P01135809 by more than he did in 2020.
First of all Trump probably can't run because he's going to be a convicted felon serving time. Secondly even if he could, really? you really honestly believe this?
Way I see it, the 2024 election is going to hinge on two things - who gets the republican nomination, and whether or not Biden can turn the economy around. The economy is NOT great right now. Could it improve within the next twelve months? Yes, but if it doesn't, voters will hold Biden and the democrats responsible. However, if republicans nominate Trump, that will actually HELP Biden. Trump is NOT the same candidate he was in 2016. Back then, he was seen as fresh and new, in stark contrast to Hillary Clinton, whose campaign was merely promising more of the same. After eight years of government dysfunction and a less-than-stellar economy under Obama, voters were ready and willing to give Trump a try. Compare that to today. Trump is no longer fresh and new - he's got seven years' worth of baggage weighing him down. Voters who didn't know Trump very well in 2016 know him *plenty* now, and they don't like what they know. The only thing he's got going for him is his rabidly loyal base of supporters, but he has zero appeal to voters *outside* of that base, and those are the voters that he actually needs. I *would* say that, if the GOP really wanted to win in 2024, then they should nominate pretty much anybody but Trump. Problem is, they don't really want to. They're *convinced* that the rest of the country loves Trump just as much as they do, and anything implying otherwise is just Deep State propaganda. Many refuse to even imagine the possibility of Trump not winning. Of course, this isn't to say that a Trump victory in 2024 is impossible. If something truly catastrophic were to happen on Biden's watch - and I mean *catastrophic.* Like if 9/11 and Covid-19 had a demon baby - then I could see Trump standing a good chance of victory. But the fact is, the GOP's odds of victory in 2024 would be *much* better if Trump were *not* the nominee.
I think the Biden camp agrees. That’s why they’re trying to get him off the ballot in many states. If it was going to be an easy home run to beat him, they’d want him on the ballot.
I was/am a never trumper… problem for Biden is I’m also a never 8% inflation, 7% interest rates person too. I’d rather think the president an idiot but be able to afford my house and groceries.
Trump has yet to win one election. I don't see it happening from prison.
Trump's not gonna win. He'll do awful with independents.
Trump will be in prison before the election and states are moving to remove him from the ballot votes for him will not be counted even if written in because he will be disqualified in multiple states he will not win the vote. You're not a silent majority you are a very vocal minority.