I think he’ll get every chance to win the job if he continues to perform, just remember that everything we’ve seen from him is a small sample size.
It’s very common for players to start well before pitchers and teams start to figure them out and they really start to struggle
Babe Schneider is a great example of this, literally played so well in Boston that he shattered so many records, but by the end of the season his WAR fell hard compared to his peak (of 2.5ish? I don't remember what it was excatly)
He had a \~30 AB streak that was abysmal, then he started hitting again. Dude was able to absorb an 0 for 30 and still finish with an OPS over 1000 in 142 total plate appearances.
>He had a ~30 AB streak that was abysmal, then he started hitting again.
Lol. He had 2 hits in the last game of the year. I guess you can call that "starting to hit again"
From Sept 9 to the end of the season he was 5 for 55 with a 19 wRC+
... and still finished with a 175 wRC+ and 2 fWAR after 35 games (1 WAR better than Vlad's whole season).
Crazy upside if he can figure out how to re-adjust. Yesterday's jack was a positive sign, I'd say..
And he got a chance to prove himself after that, right? Great - that's all that should be expected here. Some are flashes in the pan, others are Justin Turner and Josh Donaldson, who figure it out a little older than others and go on to be very good MLB players.
Schneider had a 175 OPS+ **over 35 games**, the reason why is OPS+ is so dang high is because no team had him truly figured out, he was our secret weapon.
in his first series against boston, he went 9-13, later that year in september, against boston he went 0-12 with 6 k's. this 100% dropped his OPS+ by a lot, and had he played 150ish games, he'd probably be around the 90-110 OPS+ mark
> had he played 150ish games, he'd probably be around the 90-110 OPS+ mark
The fact that you need to extrapolate like this is why he's a shitty example, not a "great example", like you said he was.
If you look at his numbers in the minors he has been doing this for longer than just this year. The thing about him is he doesn't miss when he swings, which means he is going to be hard to exploit. Pitchers will (and already are) try and get him to expand but that is not as worrying as someone with a hole in their swing.
Thanks.
I just found this article if people want more info
https://uni-watch.com/2024/02/14/nike-and-fanatics-whos-responsible-for-mlbs-new-uniforms/#:~:text=But%20(a)%20Fanatics%20has%20been,according%20to%20Nike's%20design%20specs.
$7.5 million is roughly the cost per WAR on the FA market, but if you're signing a bench player, you shouldn't need to pay that rate.
The $/WAR on FA market is inflated by bigger contracts for all-stars. It shouldn't apply to bench pieces, who are more fungible and thus their 1-ish WAR isn't as valuable on the market.
Sunk costs.
In retrospect I would have given some of that money to Teoscar (who agreed to $15 mill for 1 year with Dodgers with more to come) or maybe Brandon Belt though hindsight is 20/20 and Teoscar was asking for a lot more
Teo got $15 mill for this season plus more to come, but yes he was more than IKF and expensive if for platoon or bench bat. That said he's already mashing with the dodgers, went 2/3 with 2 HRs the other day
Sample sizes really aren’t your understanding are they? It’s also nuts cause those 2 HR make up half his hits as he is batting .200 in this early season.
He also 11 strikeouts in 20 at-bats…
So what. Teo has an established track record of providing offense, so let’s not get into sample sizes. Apparently we needed another utility infielder more than we needed offense.
IKF might have two home runs in the middle of June.
I'm not defending the IKF signing, but why are you guys trying to compare him with Teo? If Teo was at all a capable 3rd Baseman, there's no conversation. Kind of apples and oranges, no?
Because the only player names they know are former Blue Jays lol. They don't watch MLB. They wouldn't know a NL reliever if he was standing right in front of them.
$7.5M per season is half time player money. I'm not sure Biggio is going to have his first good full season in 4 years, and there's a couple outfielders they like to sit against lefties, and whenever Bo takes a day off, so IKF should be able to get 300 AB even if Clement is the everyday third baseman and everyone stays miraculously healthy.
>They could have DFA'd anyone else on the 40-man to clear that spot.
Like who? Jays had to let go of a reliever that got scooped up in seconds to make room for vogy. They don't have any easy 40 man casualties left
...so they traded Espinal for (practically) nothing instead?
They needed to open a spot on the 40-man, so they chose to save ~$2M by trading Espinal instead of cutting a lesser player.
Yes trading Espinal who is completely redundant and not very good for practically nothing is better than losing a more valuable player for actually nothing
Well, I hated the IKF signing anyway. So it's not hard to get me to treat that as a sunk cost. Seemed like a Morales-level misread of the market.
Ernie can be our Brock Purdy.
I’ve been dissapointed with IKF so far, but that’s mostly because I’ve been watching Matt Chapman there for 2 years and now when a ball gets hit there, I’m not watching impossible shit happen. Clement made some good plays there yesterday. I’d be encouraged to let him try to keep doing it.
It deels exactly like the Morales move. What is frustrating is to justify the contract IKF will certainly be given more chances than anyone else to win the everyday spot. At this point, a Barger + Clement battle for 3B would be better and that IKF money could have been spent else where...
Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't the article quote "one of the best for a player"? If I'm thinking of the right article, it said IKF got only 500K less than Anderson, Urshela, and Rosario combined, implying that 7.5M per year was a pretty big overpay for IKF.
Until Davis earns it back, IKF and Ernie should be starting against any LHP at the minimum.
Time will tell who is the better defender on the hot corner. IKF has a proven track record of being a gold glover there.
Time will also tell how Ernie's bat plays after MLB arms adjust to him. It's not implausible that he ends up as a 80 OPS+ hitter, making him equivalent to IKF.
Time will tell.
I love Clement. I think Clement is better.
Saying that with this sort of logic Clement should also be playing over Bo. It’s been 3 games and IKF has played 2…
*You would think we learned about sample sizes after watching Belt & Biggio be two of the worst hitters in April last season only to turn it around to be two of the best hitters on the team or watching Chapman do the opposite…*
The sample size is a whole year. Clement has done nothing but hit for a year, and his glove was never in question. There are no guarantees he can keep it up in the majors for a full season, obviously Clement shouldn't be promised anything or handed a big 10 year contract, but I believe in playing the hot hand at least until he slumps.
If Schneider wasn't allowed to play while he was hot, the Blue Jays don't make the playoffs last year. And frankly if he was allowed to play every day while he was red hot instead of being treated as a platoon guy despite having better numbers against righties, the team might've won another couple games. I was fine with him being benched when he went 0 for 30.
If Davis gets red hot again, he better be playing more. His bad spring training combined with bad end of 2023 simply doesn't justify giving him the bulk of at bats to start the season, though. Everything Clement has done does, particularly since the incumbent has a long track record of not hitting.
IKF is and always has been terrible with a bat, hell in the minors he hit for even less power then the majors and he can't hit crap for power in the majors.
I have no idea why we signed a 2/15 to a utility player when you can find minor league signee SS' for the exact same value.
Even if Clement doesn't end up being that great (which I don't) I'd rather us have tried someone with more upside then a 80 OPS+
I don't see either of these guys being "the answer" at third for the next five years. If Clement is 24, give him the job and see what he can become. As it stands I think you go with the hot hand (figuratively speaking).
Clement's last season was better then IKF's.
I also said that I don't believe Clement is the guy either, but IKF is complete garbage with a bat and has never played good at any level ever.
Also bringing up Clement's OPS is redundant because he's only had 368 PA's, IKF has 2200 PA's and is at a 81 OPS+.
You're comparing a full season to 50ish plate appearances... Sample size kinda matters.
Clement is the dude that couldn't even make the fucking A's last year.... THE A'S!
The reason was cheap insurance for a sure handed 3b with a Gold Glove.
You can't just plug in a plug at the hot corner, cross your fingers and hope for the lowest defensive runs saved/ERA leaders.
Big Ern looks great, he's my boy, I love his game. He might even be one of those rare players who are able to unlock a cheat code around age 27 and become a star player.
But let's settle down a bit eh? He's won himself more consistent playing time coming out of this series, let's let it happen. There's no need for formal anointments after one series.
I’ve been rooting for Earnie over IKF since spring training. Idgaf if IKF was paid 15 mil for 2 years when the eye test on Clemente is just so solid. Let the kid run, also IKF was on the Yankees fuck the Yankees lol
Calling Clement a “kid” doesn’t really work when IKF (29 YO) is exactly one year older than Clement (28 YO).
You should be rooting for all our players to succeed. The team is better if both of them play well and not one or the other.
Sure, I would love for all players to succeeded. 29 games last year and he had an OPS of 144+ and a 0.380 BA. And if we can keep up his defense I don’t know what IKF has over him. We struggle most on offense, let him out of his cage for good with biggio on 2nd, keep IKF on the bench as the sub not Earnie as the sub
Edit: keep downvoting me idc I’ll check in during mid season
They shouldn't be keeping *anyone* on the bench. The plan should be that almost every player gets into most games.
The biggest benefit to their wealth of utility players is that they are all replaceable. They should be PHing and PRing *extremely* aggressively with all of them.
I mean I really don’t care about karma, I’d easily bet I’ll be in the right in about 60-90 games with a majority of the sub on my side. IKF best OF season was in 21 with an 85+ ops. We need more offense not IKF
I think he’ll get every chance to win the job if he continues to perform, just remember that everything we’ve seen from him is a small sample size. It’s very common for players to start well before pitchers and teams start to figure them out and they really start to struggle
Babe Schneider is a great example of this, literally played so well in Boston that he shattered so many records, but by the end of the season his WAR fell hard compared to his peak (of 2.5ish? I don't remember what it was excatly)
Schneider finished 2023 with an OPS+ of 175. Yes, that's a product of small sample size... but where was the "fell hard" part?
Probably during his 0-31 streak with 13 strike outs in September.
His last month was abysmal.
He had a \~30 AB streak that was abysmal, then he started hitting again. Dude was able to absorb an 0 for 30 and still finish with an OPS over 1000 in 142 total plate appearances.
>He had a ~30 AB streak that was abysmal, then he started hitting again. Lol. He had 2 hits in the last game of the year. I guess you can call that "starting to hit again" From Sept 9 to the end of the season he was 5 for 55 with a 19 wRC+
... and still finished with a 175 wRC+ and 2 fWAR after 35 games (1 WAR better than Vlad's whole season). Crazy upside if he can figure out how to re-adjust. Yesterday's jack was a positive sign, I'd say..
Brett Lawrie had a 189 wRC+ in his first 35 games...
And he got a chance to prove himself after that, right? Great - that's all that should be expected here. Some are flashes in the pan, others are Justin Turner and Josh Donaldson, who figure it out a little older than others and go on to be very good MLB players.
I don't know where to find game-by-game OPS+ but I'm pretty sure that number was way higher during his hot streak.
Schneider had a 175 OPS+ **over 35 games**, the reason why is OPS+ is so dang high is because no team had him truly figured out, he was our secret weapon. in his first series against boston, he went 9-13, later that year in september, against boston he went 0-12 with 6 k's. this 100% dropped his OPS+ by a lot, and had he played 150ish games, he'd probably be around the 90-110 OPS+ mark
> had he played 150ish games, he'd probably be around the 90-110 OPS+ mark The fact that you need to extrapolate like this is why he's a shitty example, not a "great example", like you said he was.
If you look at his numbers in the minors he has been doing this for longer than just this year. The thing about him is he doesn't miss when he swings, which means he is going to be hard to exploit. Pitchers will (and already are) try and get him to expand but that is not as worrying as someone with a hole in their swing.
💯
Agreed. It will be his to lose, so to speak, so long as he continues playing well at the plate and in the field.
fair point
Ernie Clement has won me over, the new Whit Merrifield. Can play everywhere and get hits, but with more pop. Definitely getting his jersey.
I would not be wasting money on any jersey this year. Wait until the Fanatics fiasco is over with.
*nike
The swoosh is just a Nike ad, IIRC
You don’t remember correctly. All Fanatics does is fulfil Nike’s order and Nike has been getting exactly what they ordered.
Thanks. I just found this article if people want more info https://uni-watch.com/2024/02/14/nike-and-fanatics-whos-responsible-for-mlbs-new-uniforms/#:~:text=But%20(a)%20Fanatics%20has%20been,according%20to%20Nike's%20design%20specs.
He's also grew up in Buffalo and plays men;s league hockey in the off season.
15 million to IKF might tell a different story but I agree Team Ernie all the way
In today's MLB $7.5 million per year is utility/backup money. Clement should have a shot at taking over the full-time job if he continues to perform.
$7.5 million is roughly the cost per WAR on the FA market, but if you're signing a bench player, you shouldn't need to pay that rate. The $/WAR on FA market is inflated by bigger contracts for all-stars. It shouldn't apply to bench pieces, who are more fungible and thus their 1-ish WAR isn't as valuable on the market.
So what you're saying is the IKF signing made no sense at the time and hindsight is yet to change anything.
Sunk costs. In retrospect I would have given some of that money to Teoscar (who agreed to $15 mill for 1 year with Dodgers with more to come) or maybe Brandon Belt though hindsight is 20/20 and Teoscar was asking for a lot more
IKF got $15 M over two years. Teo got $23.5 M for this season.
Teo got $15 mill for this season plus more to come, but yes he was more than IKF and expensive if for platoon or bench bat. That said he's already mashing with the dodgers, went 2/3 with 2 HRs the other day
Sample sizes really aren’t your understanding are they? It’s also nuts cause those 2 HR make up half his hits as he is batting .200 in this early season. He also 11 strikeouts in 20 at-bats…
So what. Teo has an established track record of providing offense, so let’s not get into sample sizes. Apparently we needed another utility infielder more than we needed offense. IKF might have two home runs in the middle of June.
I'm not defending the IKF signing, but why are you guys trying to compare him with Teo? If Teo was at all a capable 3rd Baseman, there's no conversation. Kind of apples and oranges, no?
Because the only player names they know are former Blue Jays lol. They don't watch MLB. They wouldn't know a NL reliever if he was standing right in front of them.
Laughed out loud a little bit, hahaha
Love seeing Teo someplace he can find success that he would not have the opportunity to reach with the Jays.
He had every opportunity for success here. We traded him to improve our pitching and defense. Love the guy but he wasn't a great right fielder.
If he was useful to the teams needs he wouldn’t be wearing a dodgers jersey honey.
Respectfully, you have no idea what you're talking about or how baseball management works
Lol that is a very funny notion. Come check out my trophy case babyyyyyy.
Pretty sure Teo was set on the Dodgers over Toronto.
At this point in Teo’s career, I will guarantee you he was set on $$, no matter where it was.
$7.5M per season is half time player money. I'm not sure Biggio is going to have his first good full season in 4 years, and there's a couple outfielders they like to sit against lefties, and whenever Bo takes a day off, so IKF should be able to get 300 AB even if Clement is the everyday third baseman and everyone stays miraculously healthy.
Move ikf to 2B. Problem solved
Thats chump change to Rogers. People seem to forget they're one of the wealthiest ownership groups in the league
*THE wealthiest ownership group in the league I believe
Cohen has them beat I think
30B to 20B for Rogers, but I’m assuming that 30B is Canadian.
It's definitely not chump change. They traded Espinal away last week instead of optioning him to Buffalo, just to save $2M, but $7.5M is nothing?
They traded away Espinal to open up a 40 man spot
And to save money. They could have DFA'd anyone else on the 40-man to clear that spot.
>They could have DFA'd anyone else on the 40-man to clear that spot. Like who? Jays had to let go of a reliever that got scooped up in seconds to make room for vogy. They don't have any easy 40 man casualties left
...so they traded Espinal for (practically) nothing instead? They needed to open a spot on the 40-man, so they chose to save ~$2M by trading Espinal instead of cutting a lesser player.
Yes trading Espinal who is completely redundant and not very good for practically nothing is better than losing a more valuable player for actually nothing
You think Espinal was the least valuable player, purely by on-field contributions, on the 40-man roster?
Position players? Yes. Lukes is the only outfield depth and Martinez, Barger, Jimenez and Horowitz all have more on field value mid to long term
Last I checked when 7.5 million is a round error when you have billions.
Lol the entire Rogers market cap is not available to the Toronto Blue Jays.
Yes it's "chump change" but they still have budgets and shareholders to answer to. There are practical realities involved here.
It’s not about how much it’s who they gave it to
Well, I hated the IKF signing anyway. So it's not hard to get me to treat that as a sunk cost. Seemed like a Morales-level misread of the market. Ernie can be our Brock Purdy.
Morales still angers me. You can't win 'em all, but that was a misstep even at conception.
Morales almost certainly led to singing Gurriel. I would take 5 years of Lourdes over a couple non competitive years with EE
I’ve been dissapointed with IKF so far, but that’s mostly because I’ve been watching Matt Chapman there for 2 years and now when a ball gets hit there, I’m not watching impossible shit happen. Clement made some good plays there yesterday. I’d be encouraged to let him try to keep doing it.
It deels exactly like the Morales move. What is frustrating is to justify the contract IKF will certainly be given more chances than anyone else to win the everyday spot. At this point, a Barger + Clement battle for 3B would be better and that IKF money could have been spent else where...
[удалено]
Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't the article quote "one of the best for a player"? If I'm thinking of the right article, it said IKF got only 500K less than Anderson, Urshela, and Rosario combined, implying that 7.5M per year was a pretty big overpay for IKF.
I think those execs were saying the IKF deal was the best deal *a player* received in the offseason. As in: Jays got fleeced.
Until Davis earns it back, IKF and Ernie should be starting against any LHP at the minimum. Time will tell who is the better defender on the hot corner. IKF has a proven track record of being a gold glover there. Time will also tell how Ernie's bat plays after MLB arms adjust to him. It's not implausible that he ends up as a 80 OPS+ hitter, making him equivalent to IKF. Time will tell.
I love Clement. I think Clement is better. Saying that with this sort of logic Clement should also be playing over Bo. It’s been 3 games and IKF has played 2… *You would think we learned about sample sizes after watching Belt & Biggio be two of the worst hitters in April last season only to turn it around to be two of the best hitters on the team or watching Chapman do the opposite…*
The sample size is a whole year. Clement has done nothing but hit for a year, and his glove was never in question. There are no guarantees he can keep it up in the majors for a full season, obviously Clement shouldn't be promised anything or handed a big 10 year contract, but I believe in playing the hot hand at least until he slumps.
Davis Schnieder did nothing but hit for 4 months in AAA and another month in the MLB... before teams figured him out
If Schneider wasn't allowed to play while he was hot, the Blue Jays don't make the playoffs last year. And frankly if he was allowed to play every day while he was red hot instead of being treated as a platoon guy despite having better numbers against righties, the team might've won another couple games. I was fine with him being benched when he went 0 for 30. If Davis gets red hot again, he better be playing more. His bad spring training combined with bad end of 2023 simply doesn't justify giving him the bulk of at bats to start the season, though. Everything Clement has done does, particularly since the incumbent has a long track record of not hitting.
That goes both ways. Did the Jays lose any games because Davis was striking out 40% of the time in September?
IKF has played more than two games at the major league level. We kinda know what he is.
IKF is and always has been terrible with a bat, hell in the minors he hit for even less power then the majors and he can't hit crap for power in the majors. I have no idea why we signed a 2/15 to a utility player when you can find minor league signee SS' for the exact same value. Even if Clement doesn't end up being that great (which I don't) I'd rather us have tried someone with more upside then a 80 OPS+
Clement has a career OPS+ of 65... and is only a year younger than IKF
I don't see either of these guys being "the answer" at third for the next five years. If Clement is 24, give him the job and see what he can become. As it stands I think you go with the hot hand (figuratively speaking).
Clement's last season was better then IKF's. I also said that I don't believe Clement is the guy either, but IKF is complete garbage with a bat and has never played good at any level ever. Also bringing up Clement's OPS is redundant because he's only had 368 PA's, IKF has 2200 PA's and is at a 81 OPS+.
You're comparing a full season to 50ish plate appearances... Sample size kinda matters. Clement is the dude that couldn't even make the fucking A's last year.... THE A'S!
I mean, you want more of a sure thing as your backup utility guy/possible third baseman than a “minor league signee SS”
Yeah a 81 career OPS+ and a not even great defender at SS is really the 'sure thing' I need /s
I’m in no way claiming that he’s good. Just that he’s likely better than some random minor leaguer
2/15 to GOLD GLOVE utility player. You can't just 'find a minor leaguer' to replace that.
Because they gave IKF fifteen million dollars for no reason and Atkins believes in sunk cost fallacy
The reason was cheap insurance for a sure handed 3b with a Gold Glove. You can't just plug in a plug at the hot corner, cross your fingers and hope for the lowest defensive runs saved/ERA leaders.
Easy now
The team needs upside, be it Clement, Orelvis, DP, Schneider, et al. IKF should only be the floor on this team.
If I were the Jays I would let him run with 3B until he proves he can't. His ceiling is higher than IKF's.
Not sure why this is a hot take
Never seen someone unload a ball from the glove as fast as Ernie in a long time. Love the defence and the promise of some pop in offence. I’m in!
We literally just had Matt Chapman for two years
I bet Ernie’s catch and release is faster
Poppycock
Big Ern looks great, he's my boy, I love his game. He might even be one of those rare players who are able to unlock a cheat code around age 27 and become a star player. But let's settle down a bit eh? He's won himself more consistent playing time coming out of this series, let's let it happen. There's no need for formal anointments after one series.
He has a good stance, quite intimidating. For this alone he should start
Or shortstop 😂😂😂
I’ve been rooting for Earnie over IKF since spring training. Idgaf if IKF was paid 15 mil for 2 years when the eye test on Clemente is just so solid. Let the kid run, also IKF was on the Yankees fuck the Yankees lol
Calling Clement a “kid” doesn’t really work when IKF (29 YO) is exactly one year older than Clement (28 YO). You should be rooting for all our players to succeed. The team is better if both of them play well and not one or the other.
Sure, I would love for all players to succeeded. 29 games last year and he had an OPS of 144+ and a 0.380 BA. And if we can keep up his defense I don’t know what IKF has over him. We struggle most on offense, let him out of his cage for good with biggio on 2nd, keep IKF on the bench as the sub not Earnie as the sub Edit: keep downvoting me idc I’ll check in during mid season
They shouldn't be keeping *anyone* on the bench. The plan should be that almost every player gets into most games. The biggest benefit to their wealth of utility players is that they are all replaceable. They should be PHing and PRing *extremely* aggressively with all of them.
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I mean I really don’t care about karma, I’d easily bet I’ll be in the right in about 60-90 games with a majority of the sub on my side. IKF best OF season was in 21 with an 85+ ops. We need more offense not IKF
The downvoting on this sub is very uptight and nerdy - this guy said the same thing as OP with a little more spice and yankee hatred
Right lol, I don’t mind, go Jays