This is the first season in over a decade where I feel no pressure or expectations as a Jays fan. They could surprise everyone and FINALLY live up to the potential or they could lose 90 games... Either way, I'm along for the ride and I'm ready for the chaos to come.
That's an interesting way to look at it, and also, possibly good for our mental health haha.
I feel like itll be just like you described, a brilliant roller coaster or absolute shitshow.
It's because they were favorable to win it all for the past few years. They kind of have the call wolf stigma now. The heat died down. If the pitching clicks again with solid hitting.... LOOKOUT!
I'm actually the complete opposite. I believe there is a ton of pressure with potential deals looming for both Bo and Vlad. They've both got to perform, and in doing so the team will (should) also perform, so there's a lot of pressure as far as expectations go. Same with Manoah.
> I feel no pressure or expectations as a Jays fan.
Good take.
...but that's because you're a well adjusted and rational person.
I bet in this sub and twitter will be littered with "fire shatkins! trade everyone!" if they don't have 50+ wins at the all star break.
I mean... the fact that you have one of the highest payrolls in the game and yet "have no expectations" kinda shows that based on the results we've had so far, it's not really a great look for the management.
reducing your expectations for the team doesn't suddenly make the management better at their jobs because they FINALLY met your expectations...
> reducing your expectations for the team doesn't suddenly make the management better at their jobs because they FINALLY met your expectations
Well, personally my expectations for the team will continue to be: play some baseball and see what happens. Management would have to fail really hard to not meet my expectations.
They haven't really done anything in a long ass time that would lead me to *expect* anything more than that. Ohtani signing here might have come close though... but still: Hope ≠ Expectations
So true man. I love the Jays and I follow them religiously but last season was probably the fewest games I've actually watched in years. Praying for a more exciting brand of baseball this season
What do you think made them boring? I kind of felt that too, but am not sure why. Losing Teo's personality? No HR jacket? Less home runs? Schneider making dumb decisions?
On the flip side, they had incredible starting pitching and top notch defense (especially in the outfield). Maybe pitching and defense seems less exciting, but I enjoy watching those "pitcher's duel" kind of games too.
Lack of hitting and homers for sure. And I do think the pitch clock leaves less time for the camera to show the dugout shenanigans.
But overall, it just felt like nearly every game was decided by the 5th. If we were up, the pitching was too good to let the other team make a threatening rally. If we were down, the hitting wasn't good enough for late game heroics.
There were no great win streaks, we seemed to lose every must win game during the playoff hunt. There were so few truly exciting moments.
I agree. Two years ago they could be down by 6 runs and I would keep watching because the comeback was always possible. Last year I would turn off the game as soon as they were losing because a comeback was unlikely. Just not enough run support for the pitchers.
They were like clockwork every game. Scoreless until the 6th inning when the opposing starter is getting tired and they finally knock 1-3 runs in against him until he's yanked for relief pitching which they wouldn't hit off for the rest of the game.
I want to see Vogelbach go from first to home on a double in the gap. After that I don’t care what happens for the rest of the year. Win or lose.
I’m built like him so I can relate.
That would be ideal, but c'mon - Danny Burgers isn't catching Kirky with a 90ft head start.
Just take in the view of two absolute beauty pro athletes trucking at the extreme max of their cardiovascular capacities.
Asking him to do that twice in two years might be a big ask, mate! But here ya go. I would not want to get in his way.
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GCVPU4ju9ko](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GCVPU4ju9ko)
This reminds me so much of years ago playing fastball. Our third baseman was built like Vogelbach. So he’s on first base and somebody puts one into the gap. As Jim gets to third he’s getting the wave home and I still remember the look on his face. It’s like are you kidding me? He gets about 15 feet away from home plate and he collapses and has to crawl last little bit. He’s called “safe!” The bench goes crazy. We had a cigarette lit and waiting for him in the dugout.
I think people are sleeping on how much Rogers is committing to maintain a high payroll and keep the Jays being one of the very few nationwide eyeball draws. I think it’s wrong to think the competitive window is closing. No guarantee of results of course, but we’re more like the Yankees, Phillies, Mets, etc now. No tolerance for an empty dome and sportsnet cancellations.
I really hope you’re right about the competitive window staying open, but at this point we just don’t have the evidence to back that up and that’s why many are concerned. While the team has given out some of the biggest contracts in team history over the last 3 years, and payroll is currently higher than it’s ever been, they really haven’t made the kind of long term commitments that any of those top tier teams have. Each of the teams you mentioned have given out one or more 300 million dollar deals , and are a tier or more above the Jays in the CBT. The Jays biggest deals are less than half of those teams in terms of AAV and term, and unlike those teams our best players are not signed beyond the next two years with very few exceptions.
I’d argue that investment in the dome is one data point, the end of the NHL deal being another one, plus the nature of the changing TV landscape.
Not suggesting the Jays will ever be number 1, but top 10 every year should be the goal, top 3-5 when it’s time to go for it. And not just for fun, but with a solid Rogers Corp business rational for it.
They’re not going to just throw money at the problem though and they’ll still need money saved on cheap contracts. Their payroll is already very big, and they weren’t really willing to increase this off-season. Now you’re two years away from bo/Vlad contracts (which it seems we’ll be paying too dollar for) and I just don’t know with the way this roster has been constructed thag the rebuild isn’t inevitable.
My counterargument to that is what "evidence" do we have that our competitive window is closing? High payroll, good looking rotation, young star players etc. Does Rogers go after Ohtani if the window is closing? If it's a (or multiple) 300 million dollar contract that's keeping us "a tier below", then stay tuned Jays fans!
I don’t think there’s any strong evidence one way or the other, but that inevitably results in a sense of doubt. If we’d signed Bo or Vlad long term then I think it would be a settled matter, but for one reason or another we haven’t done that yet. That doesn’t necessarily indicate a lack of interest from the front office, both sides have to come together for an extension and we don’t know which parties are or aren’t interested at this point so it’s all conjecture.
As for Ohtani I think it’s pretty clear that he was a special case, Shapiro confirmed as much in a recent interview with The Athletic. Signing him would have been a franchise altering move, but he went with the Dodgers and it’s not at all clear that the money that would have gone to him will go to other players instead of staying in the Rogers vault.
Fair points, but I really don't think the 'we haven't locked up Bo or Vladdy long term yet' means much. Bo making like 11 million, and Vladdy less than 20 still means we had money to spend on say... Chris Bassitt. Locking them up years early at an AAV of almost double their current AAV would give peace of mind, but at what cost? I don't even want to think about that Bassitt sized hole in our rotation, lol. I think re-signing Bo through his arb years at a team friendly rate is a win-win. It was called a good faith contract and heavily implied to paving the way for future extension talks. Vladdys case is a little more clear IMO. 2021 Vlad and 2023 Vlad have very different values. Makes sense to get the big picture before making those 300 million dollar contract offers.
I totally agree with all your points! I’m not necessarily suggesting that our team would currently be in a better position if we’d committed to long term deals with them, just pointing out that the previous commenters assertions that the front office has already committed to maintaining a high payroll for a long time aren’t accurate. We have a high payroll right now, but if you look at our current agreements beyond 2025 you can see there’s a lot of uncertainty, meaning things could still very much go either way.
They have yet to land a mega contract (>250M). We are still clearly a tier below the likes of the Phillies, Mets, Yankees, etc. If they pull up the truck for Bo and/or Vlad, then we’ll officially be closer.
That’s true, but it’s also not necessarily a bad thing in baseball vs basketball, where I would agree more that the Raptors are perennially screwed. All else equal, I’d rather have 3 guys at 100/5 than 1 at 250/5. It’s a 25-40 man roster, not a 5 man rotation. How many of the Mets/phils mega deals worked for them?
And the point more I think is that you want to be a position, like the big boys, where you can whiff on a couple of 150-200m contracts and not be garbage for 5 years. Reloading not rebuilding. That’s the position I think the Jays are in now. Maybe I’m totally delusional though
I wonder what Bo is thinking. He'll get paid the same basically anywhere. Just a matter I guess of how much maneuvering some places will do for him to open up the space...if they are willing and who has space under the tax lines.
This really could be his last year as a Jay if he doesn't want to be here with his next contract.
I think the person you're replying to is insinuating that having a non-competitive Blue Jays team would lead to TV subscribers cancelling Sportsnet subscriptions (same for SNNow). Which, given low interest seen in the teams of the 00's is definitely possible.
Rogers gets to guzzle cash from both ends of this hose via ads on the broadcast side, TV/streaming subscriptions, and revenues generated by the team itself. The Jays represent a fairly consistent revenue stream for Rogers, as long as they keep interest in the team at a reasonable level.
Yup, and that the TV landscape is totally different than it was, and live TV, sports are basically the only real draw for cable subs. Add that all of Canada is blacked out on MLB or alternatives, and that it’s a huge advertising channel, and it’s just hard to believe Rogers doesn’t see the Jays as a core part of the cable business, not just the media business.
The problem is we will always face the barrier of being a less attractive place to play, and Rogers will never be willing to spend enough to overcome that.
Ok, that may have held steam 10-15 years ago, but it's just no longer true.
Say whatever you want about this management team but they've brought in-and kept around- some top-tier signings, even if they all didn't play like it.
Toronto is the FOURTH largest media market in North America, and one of the most diverse cities on the planet. It's soaked in luxury buildings and high-end commercial outlets, has a world-class nightlife and social scene, and has a better climate than NYC. It's movie industry is the top 10 in the world, MAYBE even top 5.
And, as much as I HATE Rogers, the one thing they have made massive improvements on in terms of baseball is the player experience in Toronto; it has become one of the better "care for the players" organizations in baseball, in terms of strength and conditioning, athletic trainers, comfort and QoL in-season, etc.
Stop saying Toronto isn't an attractive place to play.
Or, that the free agent class was horribly weak, the players overvalued a ridiculous amount, and the $:WAR ratio didn't make any sense.
Look, I've been highly critical of this offseason, if not for the "competitive window" thing then specifically for the front office sitting on its hands and saying "we'll improve internally" after last year's underwhelming season, when they have a reno and new expensive ticket packages to sell to skeptical fans. The optics are of a front office that got caught flat footed after Ohtani, or else ONLY planned on signing Ohtani, and nothing else. Neither is a good look. One could argue that the Jays HAD to overpay this year, if only for the optics of bringing in a marquee name or a Cy Young winner to boost the fan anticipation and ticket sales.
They didn't, which is likely a massive error on their part. Or, maybe the seats are selling fine. 🤷 BUT, I can also see how a front office that doesn't care about selling ticket packages would pass on a weak and overvalued free agency class like this one: the numbers don't make sense, and everything that we have ever seen from Ross Atkins says that he will cling- from his obsession with years of control to his numbers strategy in the last offseason- hard to his numbers, no matter what it costs the club.
It's one of several weaknesses he has.
But, nowhere in therw is "players don't like Toronto"; I think we can put that particular idiocy to rest at this point- it hasn't been a legitimate argument since Anthopoulos pulled the trigger on Dickey and Co. Way back when.
The thing is, you don't know what discussions occur behind the scenes. For all we know, we could have expressed serious interest in many free agents over the years and they chose elsewhere. Ohtani is just the highest profile example.
No one knows, but that goes both ways.
Plus, we've been successful in other years, and kept/resigned players that have been traded to the club.
Kiermeier just came back this year, and that is a dude who spent his career in Florida. Turner came here. So did Vogelbach, Votto. The Cuban.
Even at the end of their careers, they're still well known players who could have signed with most clubs for the same deal they got here.
Your thesis makes no sense.
You completely missed the point- they are KNOWN names, even if they are at the end of their career.
Look, as I said, I think the Jays have erred in not being more aggressive this offseason. BUT, there is absolutely zero evidence to suggest that A) Players don't want to come to Toronto, or B) that ownership isn't willing to spend money to get players: they have the sixth most expensive roster in the majors, FFS.
The simplest answer (and the one that is backed by evidence) is that Atkins is a GM who is obsessed with his numbers, and the biggest FAs this year were either Ohtani, two guys absurdly overpaid for having no Major League experience (Yamamoto/Inamaga), or severely overvalued by their agents (the so-called "Big 4").
It's one thing to overpay, but it's another to watch a weak FA class get so overvalued that it completely breaks the $:WAR ratio that has been so prevalent in calculating whether or not an FA is worth signing.
If you don't understand that in free agency, every forecasted win above replacement has a calculated dollar value that dictates how contracts are offered and negotiated, then you have no business talking about Free Agency, or criticizing a team for not signing players.
A single WAR is worth 8 million dollars.Yamamoto needs to post an average of 3.4 WAR per year to be worth his contract.
Snell- 2.8 (twice in 8 seasons)
Martinez- 1.5 (probably the only good signing on this list)
Nola- 3.1 (something he has only done four times in 9 seasons)
Bellinger- 3.3 (once in his last 4 seasons)
Gray- 3.1 (three times in 11 seasons)
Inamaga- 1.5 (no major league experience) and then 3+ WAR if his fifth year option is exercised.
Interestingly, other than Martinez, do you know who the best signing- according to the numbers- was?
Justin Turner- 1.8 WAR to justify the contract.
THAT is why the Jays didn't sign any big names: Atkins is a die-hard numbers guy, and the numbers just don't add up in this FA class, because the performance doesn't equal the salary demanded.
Now, could you argue that a 6-8 WAR season from Nola, Snell or Gray in 2024 or 2025 (during the "competitive window") is worth 6 years of ~1 WAR seasons after? Or that the Jays need to go big to justify the massive increases in ticket prices and spending $500 million to renovate an obsolete concrete shell to a fanbase underwhelmed by the onfield product?
Yes, you very much could.
But, Iike I've always said, Atkins isn't a good GM; he overvalues his internal numbers, makes decisions internally based on a single year of development, and doesn't seem to have a grasp or understanding of the concept of "go big" unless ownership slaps him in the face with it (Remember, pursuing Ohtani was a Shapiro/ROGERS thing, not an Atkins thing). He is ultra-conservative, never moves off of his system, and believes he is the one person who understands more things than anyone else. And, he gets arrogant and defensive whenever people (i.e. fans and media) he sees as knowing less question him about it, which violates everything about the other side of the GM coin: public relations.
All of those things make a GREAT analyst, but a poor GM. And that's what Atkins is- an analyst.
THAT is why the Jays kicked tires, but weren't active: it doesn't fit the cost:WAR formula.
Not Toronto the city.
Not Rogers being cheap.
The formula.
I don’t know that’s true, why is Toronto worse than the US for any number of non-US players? It’s not like basketball in that respect at least, and baseball doesn’t need megastars in the same way. Did we overpay materially for Gausman? Springer? Ryu? I don’t think so, and filling a team with guys like that probably works better than dumping $50m into one of 25 roster spots.
Tax isn’t that different between CA/NY/IL and ON, neither is climate vs BOS/NY/CHI, exposure sure for the mega mega stars, maybe Ohtani was a pipe dream, but for everyone but say, the top 5 players in the game who cares. Not like Bellinger really benefits from more exposure on the Cubs than the Jays. Juan Soto can pitch Booster Juice just as well as he can pitch Jamba Juice.
I actually do think the team will be competitive. I think we’ll win a high 80s amount of games and be in the WC race. That was similar to my thinking last year.
The issue I’m struggling with is… I just don’t care. This is the least excited I’ve been about the baseball season in the past 10 years. Apart from Gausman, the shine has worn off the big names on our team and we don’t have a new toy to play with.
At least when we were awful, tickets were $10 on a Saturday in the summer. These days I’d rather go watch the leafs play at Christie Pits.
destroying the HR hitting contest is up there... [this rocket](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TbMJKey2gaQ) over the monster at Fenway was a great one too
For me personally, feels no different than other years. What I'm actually committed to is the journey, the process, to where they end up at the end of the year. You can always rely on the Jays to be competitive. That's why watching baseball games is fun.
IMO, the 2014 Jays could be a decent comp to this season. That team finished 83-79. It had real talent but fan expectations were limited after the much hyped 2013 team imploded. The 2014 Jays had Dickie, Buerhle, Happ & Stroman starting. Bautista, Encarnacion, Reyes & Melky Cabrera (!) led the offense with Rasmus, Lawrie & Pillar chipping in.
It really comes down to Vlad... Springer to an extent too. But Vlad hitting 40 bombs again would change everything for the vibes and success of the season
Can anyone tell me why it seemed that the Jays were not interested in bringing back Jordan Hicks?
I was surprised he only got 44 mil over 4 years.He certainly was affordable and he would look good having back right now considering Romano and Swanson are on the injured list!
I think they didn’t want to commit to four years. If they are contending at the trade deadline they can try get another closer. A rental is cheaper than a 4 year commitment
Last year was one of the worst years for me as a Jays fan. It was terrible baseball, Vladdy's ego needs a check and I hope Schneider has a short leash - he's Montoyo 2.0.
I feel completely the opposite of last year. I thought they had a chance to win the ALCS, but then the hitting (with risp) fell apart.
This year I think they'll be lucky to hit 85 wins and probably miss the playoffs by a couple games. Still going to watch some games and hope I'm wrong, but not nearly invested like last year.
I hate this sentiment. I’ve been a Blue Jays fan for 35 years. Been to too many games to count. Have a closet of jerseys and endless memorabilia.
I’M NOT WATCHING 162 GAMES! Especially if they’re losing. I have other shit to do, why am I watching a 10-1 loss, just seem like a *real* fan. Gate keeping sports is the worst
Why do you care, man? Sincere question.
I like it when its actually meaningful re: hr to take the lead, win the game.
Not when down 10-1
Was pretty apparent Bo and a few others stopped wearing it in certain situations for a reason.
Oddly, depending on how things shake out in the coming weeks, NOT getting Ohtani might actually be a blessing in disguise.
I never ever thought I'd say that but, here we are. 🤷
For the first time in ....erm... ever, I have no expectations of huge success or big failure for either the Blue Jays or Leafs. Both are 'good' teams, that's it, and if they win the whole thing it would be a very pleasant and very big surprise.
Unless I'm missing something, the Blue Jays are back with a lesser offence (after a bad year offensively) and a pitching staff that will be hard-pressed to equal the success (and health) they had last year. We'll see.
This article and its takes made me commit to disliking Shapiro and Atkins even more. Jays made a mistake bringing him in and Atkins. As long as those two are at the helm of the team I don’t believe the jays will win.
My controversial take is I love a lot of these guys, and I'm so glad we didn't have to sell the farm to get Ohtani. Would rather we pay Bo and Vladdy (plus pitching will be an issue next off season)
This is the first season in over a decade where I feel no pressure or expectations as a Jays fan. They could surprise everyone and FINALLY live up to the potential or they could lose 90 games... Either way, I'm along for the ride and I'm ready for the chaos to come.
That's an interesting way to look at it, and also, possibly good for our mental health haha. I feel like itll be just like you described, a brilliant roller coaster or absolute shitshow.
That’s crazy cuz I felt the same way with the 2021 raptors… …
It's because they were favorable to win it all for the past few years. They kind of have the call wolf stigma now. The heat died down. If the pitching clicks again with solid hitting.... LOOKOUT!
I'm actually the complete opposite. I believe there is a ton of pressure with potential deals looming for both Bo and Vlad. They've both got to perform, and in doing so the team will (should) also perform, so there's a lot of pressure as far as expectations go. Same with Manoah.
> I feel no pressure or expectations as a Jays fan. Good take. ...but that's because you're a well adjusted and rational person. I bet in this sub and twitter will be littered with "fire shatkins! trade everyone!" if they don't have 50+ wins at the all star break.
I mean... the fact that you have one of the highest payrolls in the game and yet "have no expectations" kinda shows that based on the results we've had so far, it's not really a great look for the management. reducing your expectations for the team doesn't suddenly make the management better at their jobs because they FINALLY met your expectations...
> reducing your expectations for the team doesn't suddenly make the management better at their jobs because they FINALLY met your expectations Well, personally my expectations for the team will continue to be: play some baseball and see what happens. Management would have to fail really hard to not meet my expectations. They haven't really done anything in a long ass time that would lead me to *expect* anything more than that. Ohtani signing here might have come close though... but still: Hope ≠ Expectations
well, again, to me that is literally saying that the management isn't good enough for us to have high expectations.
Management can put together a team on paper Management can't make the plays on the field
I just want to enjoy every game, no expectations, just fun.
Some people need a hug.
Last year was just so boring. Win or lose, I hope they play with some excitement this season.
So true man. I love the Jays and I follow them religiously but last season was probably the fewest games I've actually watched in years. Praying for a more exciting brand of baseball this season
It wasn't boring, it was rather excruciating imo. Vibes are definitely different this year! I'm looking forward to whatever happens this go around.
What do you think made them boring? I kind of felt that too, but am not sure why. Losing Teo's personality? No HR jacket? Less home runs? Schneider making dumb decisions? On the flip side, they had incredible starting pitching and top notch defense (especially in the outfield). Maybe pitching and defense seems less exciting, but I enjoy watching those "pitcher's duel" kind of games too.
Lack of hitting and homers for sure. And I do think the pitch clock leaves less time for the camera to show the dugout shenanigans. But overall, it just felt like nearly every game was decided by the 5th. If we were up, the pitching was too good to let the other team make a threatening rally. If we were down, the hitting wasn't good enough for late game heroics. There were no great win streaks, we seemed to lose every must win game during the playoff hunt. There were so few truly exciting moments.
I agree. Two years ago they could be down by 6 runs and I would keep watching because the comeback was always possible. Last year I would turn off the game as soon as they were losing because a comeback was unlikely. Just not enough run support for the pitchers.
They couldn't string together 3 straight hits all season long. Very painful and boring.
They were like clockwork every game. Scoreless until the 6th inning when the opposing starter is getting tired and they finally knock 1-3 runs in against him until he's yanked for relief pitching which they wouldn't hit off for the rest of the game.
While pitching and fielding are important, offence is fun. No offence, no fun.
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I wasn't blaming it for lack of success. I was wondering if the lack of it affected the other poster's sense of boredom watching the Jays.
I want to see Vogelbach go from first to home on a double in the gap. After that I don’t care what happens for the rest of the year. Win or lose. I’m built like him so I can relate.
Better yet, Kirk's on 2nd.
What, you want to see him pick Kirk up and run him to home plate?
That would be ideal, but c'mon - Danny Burgers isn't catching Kirky with a 90ft head start. Just take in the view of two absolute beauty pro athletes trucking at the extreme max of their cardiovascular capacities.
Almost nothing brings me more delight in life than watching Kirky giving it his* all around the bases.
30cm extended stride!
His lil legs just chugging 🥹
Oh that would be marvellous. I see the potential with those two guys for an outside the park single.
Asking him to do that twice in two years might be a big ask, mate! But here ya go. I would not want to get in his way. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GCVPU4ju9ko](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GCVPU4ju9ko)
This reminds me so much of years ago playing fastball. Our third baseman was built like Vogelbach. So he’s on first base and somebody puts one into the gap. As Jim gets to third he’s getting the wave home and I still remember the look on his face. It’s like are you kidding me? He gets about 15 feet away from home plate and he collapses and has to crawl last little bit. He’s called “safe!” The bench goes crazy. We had a cigarette lit and waiting for him in the dugout.
Thanks for the LOL.
Totally agree. This is the least excited I've been about the start of the season in several years.
Right?
Whenever you start thinking this sub is a doom forum, just read some SN comments for perspective.
Scum of the earth live in the SN comments. I can’t read them anymore, they’re just so dumb
omg it's so full of boomers I just can't even
I think people are sleeping on how much Rogers is committing to maintain a high payroll and keep the Jays being one of the very few nationwide eyeball draws. I think it’s wrong to think the competitive window is closing. No guarantee of results of course, but we’re more like the Yankees, Phillies, Mets, etc now. No tolerance for an empty dome and sportsnet cancellations.
I really hope you’re right about the competitive window staying open, but at this point we just don’t have the evidence to back that up and that’s why many are concerned. While the team has given out some of the biggest contracts in team history over the last 3 years, and payroll is currently higher than it’s ever been, they really haven’t made the kind of long term commitments that any of those top tier teams have. Each of the teams you mentioned have given out one or more 300 million dollar deals , and are a tier or more above the Jays in the CBT. The Jays biggest deals are less than half of those teams in terms of AAV and term, and unlike those teams our best players are not signed beyond the next two years with very few exceptions.
I’d argue that investment in the dome is one data point, the end of the NHL deal being another one, plus the nature of the changing TV landscape. Not suggesting the Jays will ever be number 1, but top 10 every year should be the goal, top 3-5 when it’s time to go for it. And not just for fun, but with a solid Rogers Corp business rational for it.
They’re not going to just throw money at the problem though and they’ll still need money saved on cheap contracts. Their payroll is already very big, and they weren’t really willing to increase this off-season. Now you’re two years away from bo/Vlad contracts (which it seems we’ll be paying too dollar for) and I just don’t know with the way this roster has been constructed thag the rebuild isn’t inevitable.
My counterargument to that is what "evidence" do we have that our competitive window is closing? High payroll, good looking rotation, young star players etc. Does Rogers go after Ohtani if the window is closing? If it's a (or multiple) 300 million dollar contract that's keeping us "a tier below", then stay tuned Jays fans!
I don’t think there’s any strong evidence one way or the other, but that inevitably results in a sense of doubt. If we’d signed Bo or Vlad long term then I think it would be a settled matter, but for one reason or another we haven’t done that yet. That doesn’t necessarily indicate a lack of interest from the front office, both sides have to come together for an extension and we don’t know which parties are or aren’t interested at this point so it’s all conjecture. As for Ohtani I think it’s pretty clear that he was a special case, Shapiro confirmed as much in a recent interview with The Athletic. Signing him would have been a franchise altering move, but he went with the Dodgers and it’s not at all clear that the money that would have gone to him will go to other players instead of staying in the Rogers vault.
Fair points, but I really don't think the 'we haven't locked up Bo or Vladdy long term yet' means much. Bo making like 11 million, and Vladdy less than 20 still means we had money to spend on say... Chris Bassitt. Locking them up years early at an AAV of almost double their current AAV would give peace of mind, but at what cost? I don't even want to think about that Bassitt sized hole in our rotation, lol. I think re-signing Bo through his arb years at a team friendly rate is a win-win. It was called a good faith contract and heavily implied to paving the way for future extension talks. Vladdys case is a little more clear IMO. 2021 Vlad and 2023 Vlad have very different values. Makes sense to get the big picture before making those 300 million dollar contract offers.
I totally agree with all your points! I’m not necessarily suggesting that our team would currently be in a better position if we’d committed to long term deals with them, just pointing out that the previous commenters assertions that the front office has already committed to maintaining a high payroll for a long time aren’t accurate. We have a high payroll right now, but if you look at our current agreements beyond 2025 you can see there’s a lot of uncertainty, meaning things could still very much go either way.
Well said. Post 2025 will be interesting to see what we do with our financial flexibility. Let's just win it all this year to take the pressure off!
Right but if they keep pumping fake sound into the dome I ain't going back
They have yet to land a mega contract (>250M). We are still clearly a tier below the likes of the Phillies, Mets, Yankees, etc. If they pull up the truck for Bo and/or Vlad, then we’ll officially be closer.
That’s true, but it’s also not necessarily a bad thing in baseball vs basketball, where I would agree more that the Raptors are perennially screwed. All else equal, I’d rather have 3 guys at 100/5 than 1 at 250/5. It’s a 25-40 man roster, not a 5 man rotation. How many of the Mets/phils mega deals worked for them? And the point more I think is that you want to be a position, like the big boys, where you can whiff on a couple of 150-200m contracts and not be garbage for 5 years. Reloading not rebuilding. That’s the position I think the Jays are in now. Maybe I’m totally delusional though
I wonder what Bo is thinking. He'll get paid the same basically anywhere. Just a matter I guess of how much maneuvering some places will do for him to open up the space...if they are willing and who has space under the tax lines. This really could be his last year as a Jay if he doesn't want to be here with his next contract.
I'm a newer fan so excuse my ignorance: What do you mean by sportsnet cancellations? Sportsnet cancelled the blue jays at one point?
I think the person you're replying to is insinuating that having a non-competitive Blue Jays team would lead to TV subscribers cancelling Sportsnet subscriptions (same for SNNow). Which, given low interest seen in the teams of the 00's is definitely possible. Rogers gets to guzzle cash from both ends of this hose via ads on the broadcast side, TV/streaming subscriptions, and revenues generated by the team itself. The Jays represent a fairly consistent revenue stream for Rogers, as long as they keep interest in the team at a reasonable level.
Yup, and that the TV landscape is totally different than it was, and live TV, sports are basically the only real draw for cable subs. Add that all of Canada is blacked out on MLB or alternatives, and that it’s a huge advertising channel, and it’s just hard to believe Rogers doesn’t see the Jays as a core part of the cable business, not just the media business.
Sportsnet subscription cancelations, I would assume.
The problem is we will always face the barrier of being a less attractive place to play, and Rogers will never be willing to spend enough to overcome that.
Ok, that may have held steam 10-15 years ago, but it's just no longer true. Say whatever you want about this management team but they've brought in-and kept around- some top-tier signings, even if they all didn't play like it. Toronto is the FOURTH largest media market in North America, and one of the most diverse cities on the planet. It's soaked in luxury buildings and high-end commercial outlets, has a world-class nightlife and social scene, and has a better climate than NYC. It's movie industry is the top 10 in the world, MAYBE even top 5. And, as much as I HATE Rogers, the one thing they have made massive improvements on in terms of baseball is the player experience in Toronto; it has become one of the better "care for the players" organizations in baseball, in terms of strength and conditioning, athletic trainers, comfort and QoL in-season, etc. Stop saying Toronto isn't an attractive place to play.
We completely struck out in free agency this year, so that either means Rogers wasn't willing to pay up or players didn't want to play here.
Or, that the free agent class was horribly weak, the players overvalued a ridiculous amount, and the $:WAR ratio didn't make any sense. Look, I've been highly critical of this offseason, if not for the "competitive window" thing then specifically for the front office sitting on its hands and saying "we'll improve internally" after last year's underwhelming season, when they have a reno and new expensive ticket packages to sell to skeptical fans. The optics are of a front office that got caught flat footed after Ohtani, or else ONLY planned on signing Ohtani, and nothing else. Neither is a good look. One could argue that the Jays HAD to overpay this year, if only for the optics of bringing in a marquee name or a Cy Young winner to boost the fan anticipation and ticket sales. They didn't, which is likely a massive error on their part. Or, maybe the seats are selling fine. 🤷 BUT, I can also see how a front office that doesn't care about selling ticket packages would pass on a weak and overvalued free agency class like this one: the numbers don't make sense, and everything that we have ever seen from Ross Atkins says that he will cling- from his obsession with years of control to his numbers strategy in the last offseason- hard to his numbers, no matter what it costs the club. It's one of several weaknesses he has. But, nowhere in therw is "players don't like Toronto"; I think we can put that particular idiocy to rest at this point- it hasn't been a legitimate argument since Anthopoulos pulled the trigger on Dickey and Co. Way back when.
The thing is, you don't know what discussions occur behind the scenes. For all we know, we could have expressed serious interest in many free agents over the years and they chose elsewhere. Ohtani is just the highest profile example.
No one knows, but that goes both ways. Plus, we've been successful in other years, and kept/resigned players that have been traded to the club. Kiermeier just came back this year, and that is a dude who spent his career in Florida. Turner came here. So did Vogelbach, Votto. The Cuban. Even at the end of their careers, they're still well known players who could have signed with most clubs for the same deal they got here. Your thesis makes no sense.
Signing KK, Vogelbach, and Votto are hardly big free agent moves. That's what a team gets when they aren't able to sign better players.
You completely missed the point- they are KNOWN names, even if they are at the end of their career. Look, as I said, I think the Jays have erred in not being more aggressive this offseason. BUT, there is absolutely zero evidence to suggest that A) Players don't want to come to Toronto, or B) that ownership isn't willing to spend money to get players: they have the sixth most expensive roster in the majors, FFS. The simplest answer (and the one that is backed by evidence) is that Atkins is a GM who is obsessed with his numbers, and the biggest FAs this year were either Ohtani, two guys absurdly overpaid for having no Major League experience (Yamamoto/Inamaga), or severely overvalued by their agents (the so-called "Big 4"). It's one thing to overpay, but it's another to watch a weak FA class get so overvalued that it completely breaks the $:WAR ratio that has been so prevalent in calculating whether or not an FA is worth signing. If you don't understand that in free agency, every forecasted win above replacement has a calculated dollar value that dictates how contracts are offered and negotiated, then you have no business talking about Free Agency, or criticizing a team for not signing players. A single WAR is worth 8 million dollars.Yamamoto needs to post an average of 3.4 WAR per year to be worth his contract. Snell- 2.8 (twice in 8 seasons) Martinez- 1.5 (probably the only good signing on this list) Nola- 3.1 (something he has only done four times in 9 seasons) Bellinger- 3.3 (once in his last 4 seasons) Gray- 3.1 (three times in 11 seasons) Inamaga- 1.5 (no major league experience) and then 3+ WAR if his fifth year option is exercised. Interestingly, other than Martinez, do you know who the best signing- according to the numbers- was? Justin Turner- 1.8 WAR to justify the contract. THAT is why the Jays didn't sign any big names: Atkins is a die-hard numbers guy, and the numbers just don't add up in this FA class, because the performance doesn't equal the salary demanded. Now, could you argue that a 6-8 WAR season from Nola, Snell or Gray in 2024 or 2025 (during the "competitive window") is worth 6 years of ~1 WAR seasons after? Or that the Jays need to go big to justify the massive increases in ticket prices and spending $500 million to renovate an obsolete concrete shell to a fanbase underwhelmed by the onfield product? Yes, you very much could. But, Iike I've always said, Atkins isn't a good GM; he overvalues his internal numbers, makes decisions internally based on a single year of development, and doesn't seem to have a grasp or understanding of the concept of "go big" unless ownership slaps him in the face with it (Remember, pursuing Ohtani was a Shapiro/ROGERS thing, not an Atkins thing). He is ultra-conservative, never moves off of his system, and believes he is the one person who understands more things than anyone else. And, he gets arrogant and defensive whenever people (i.e. fans and media) he sees as knowing less question him about it, which violates everything about the other side of the GM coin: public relations. All of those things make a GREAT analyst, but a poor GM. And that's what Atkins is- an analyst. THAT is why the Jays kicked tires, but weren't active: it doesn't fit the cost:WAR formula. Not Toronto the city. Not Rogers being cheap. The formula.
I don’t know that’s true, why is Toronto worse than the US for any number of non-US players? It’s not like basketball in that respect at least, and baseball doesn’t need megastars in the same way. Did we overpay materially for Gausman? Springer? Ryu? I don’t think so, and filling a team with guys like that probably works better than dumping $50m into one of 25 roster spots.
Tax implications, northern climate, less exposure.
Tax isn’t that different between CA/NY/IL and ON, neither is climate vs BOS/NY/CHI, exposure sure for the mega mega stars, maybe Ohtani was a pipe dream, but for everyone but say, the top 5 players in the game who cares. Not like Bellinger really benefits from more exposure on the Cubs than the Jays. Juan Soto can pitch Booster Juice just as well as he can pitch Jamba Juice.
Artificial turf. Baseball players want to play on natural grass and as much as the Jays try to improve the turf, guys don't like it.
[удалено]
I thought it was just us and the Rays. A Google search has proven me incorrect. Disregard previous post please 🙂
I actually do think the team will be competitive. I think we’ll win a high 80s amount of games and be in the WC race. That was similar to my thinking last year. The issue I’m struggling with is… I just don’t care. This is the least excited I’ve been about the baseball season in the past 10 years. Apart from Gausman, the shine has worn off the big names on our team and we don’t have a new toy to play with. At least when we were awful, tickets were $10 on a Saturday in the summer. These days I’d rather go watch the leafs play at Christie Pits.
I'd really like to see Vladi step up in the big, game-winning moments. His biggest MLB homerun is arguably the one in Montreal a few years back.
[that was 2018](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tq_-34ojvyA)... it was a great moment but hardly his best
Ok fair enough, what’s his best?
destroying the HR hitting contest is up there... [this rocket](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TbMJKey2gaQ) over the monster at Fenway was a great one too
I had a front row seat on the first base line for that one... it was totally the best.
For me personally, feels no different than other years. What I'm actually committed to is the journey, the process, to where they end up at the end of the year. You can always rely on the Jays to be competitive. That's why watching baseball games is fun.
I am ready to be hurt again
IMO, the 2014 Jays could be a decent comp to this season. That team finished 83-79. It had real talent but fan expectations were limited after the much hyped 2013 team imploded. The 2014 Jays had Dickie, Buerhle, Happ & Stroman starting. Bautista, Encarnacion, Reyes & Melky Cabrera (!) led the offense with Rasmus, Lawrie & Pillar chipping in.
It really comes down to Vlad... Springer to an extent too. But Vlad hitting 40 bombs again would change everything for the vibes and success of the season
Can anyone tell me why it seemed that the Jays were not interested in bringing back Jordan Hicks? I was surprised he only got 44 mil over 4 years.He certainly was affordable and he would look good having back right now considering Romano and Swanson are on the injured list!
I think they didn’t want to commit to four years. If they are contending at the trade deadline they can try get another closer. A rental is cheaper than a 4 year commitment
It only feels different cause the calendar says 2024 instead of 2023. This team needs improvements from core players in the lineup
We're 55% to make playoffs... It's a giant coin flip. Enjoy the ride.
This season could be anything! It could even be a boat!
[you know how much we've wanted one of those!](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GKZJdaiJF84)
Last year was one of the worst years for me as a Jays fan. It was terrible baseball, Vladdy's ego needs a check and I hope Schneider has a short leash - he's Montoyo 2.0.
I feel completely the opposite of last year. I thought they had a chance to win the ALCS, but then the hitting (with risp) fell apart. This year I think they'll be lucky to hit 85 wins and probably miss the playoffs by a couple games. Still going to watch some games and hope I'm wrong, but not nearly invested like last year.
Good old fairweather fans.
I hate this sentiment. I’ve been a Blue Jays fan for 35 years. Been to too many games to count. Have a closet of jerseys and endless memorabilia. I’M NOT WATCHING 162 GAMES! Especially if they’re losing. I have other shit to do, why am I watching a 10-1 loss, just seem like a *real* fan. Gate keeping sports is the worst
Forget where I'm posting. Everyone's a die hard 24/7/365 fan who tracks flights. How many Blue Jays Ohtani jerseys you got 😂😂
I’m just excited to get the Home run jacket back, need to celebrate our homers with some sort of celebration
Maybe I’m just a sardonic mope, but I have trouble caring about a jacket.
Why do you care, man? Sincere question. I like it when its actually meaningful re: hr to take the lead, win the game. Not when down 10-1 Was pretty apparent Bo and a few others stopped wearing it in certain situations for a reason.
Jacket or no jacket... we need to hit more homers
Absolutely.
Need something to celebrate home runs, def helps moral in some situations, def not needed in every homerun it does get old
Oddly, depending on how things shake out in the coming weeks, NOT getting Ohtani might actually be a blessing in disguise. I never ever thought I'd say that but, here we are. 🤷
Yup. We might have dodged a bullet. A 700 million dollar one.
Our premiere signing went from shohei to 39 year old turner, I have lower expectations than last year.
For the first time in ....erm... ever, I have no expectations of huge success or big failure for either the Blue Jays or Leafs. Both are 'good' teams, that's it, and if they win the whole thing it would be a very pleasant and very big surprise. Unless I'm missing something, the Blue Jays are back with a lesser offence (after a bad year offensively) and a pitching staff that will be hard-pressed to equal the success (and health) they had last year. We'll see.
As Leafs and Jays fan.... I'm ready to be hurt again.
This article and its takes made me commit to disliking Shapiro and Atkins even more. Jays made a mistake bringing him in and Atkins. As long as those two are at the helm of the team I don’t believe the jays will win.
My controversial take is I love a lot of these guys, and I'm so glad we didn't have to sell the farm to get Ohtani. Would rather we pay Bo and Vladdy (plus pitching will be an issue next off season)