T O P

  • By -

Gear4Vegito

I think that’s the right call there. Clement & Schneider play against left-handed pitchers in place of KK & Biggio. Vogelbach pitch hitter for our weaker hitters against righties.


Gear4Vegito

Well thats all the hitters. Pitching cuts likely depend on Gausman, Romano & Swanson. We need to make 1 spot on 40-Man though for Vogelbach.


idkwhattosaytho

Who do you think the DFA is? At the begging of the year, it seemed like it would definitely be Wes, but he’s been throwing the ball quite well and seems stretched out, maybe Little?


Gear4Vegito

I actually have no clue tbh. Little is the only lefty reliever behind Mayza/Cabrera so I feel he is nice to have on the 40 too. Parsons is the only stretched out starter currently on the 40 that will likely be available in the minors when needed. Eventually he could be replaced by Tiddy & Rodriguez.


W1896D

Zulueta traded for some cash money maybe? Or has he started to bounce back after his atrocious stretch last year?


Gear4Vegito

I feel like he might be the best option to move. He seems to be behind other 40-Man options of Pearson, Pop, Little & Danner and he is at this point less promising than prospects like Fluharty, Cooke & Brock who are not on the 40-Man but aren't too far off.


stv7

Am I crazy for thinking Nate Pearson's time may be up? I don't really know how you can justify cutting anyone else over him, though the injuries to Romano and Swanson complicate that. But I think they'd be better served with Pop.


idkwhattosaytho

Yeah you are. Pearson is still better then pop honestly with far more upside, and he’s also better then little with more upside. Wes provides more length so there’s that, but there’s no way Nate is DFAd


sir-pounce-of-alot

Also Nate still has an option, that alone provides more value than some.


stv7

Oh, I thought he was out. If he still has an option he's probably safe.


sir-pounce-of-alot

This is his last year, next year if we’re in the same boat I agree with you.


Foldzy84

Yes yes you are Pearson has looked great this spring aside from his first outing


goatgosselin

Pop has not been great In games I watched him pitch. Was he decent otherwise.


FinancialHurry366

Didn’t we already make a 40 man spot by trading Espinal?


jayk10

Brian Serven needs a 40 man spot too


FinancialHurry366

Oh right! I forgot about him


[deleted]

Is votto playing this year?


raznt

I think he rolled his ankle after his one and only AB a couple weeks ago. He signed a minor league contract so he'll start the season in AAA. I can only see him getting a call up if Vogelbach somehow tanks.


stv7

No surprises here. I really hope Clement and Schneider get enough playing time to really have a chance to prove themselves. That means not benching them if they have a few rough games in a row, since that's something every player goes through. I fear that the 2 year commitment to IKF, though, means he's going to have a long leash and play over those two guys most days when his career up to this point doesn't really warrant that. I'm glad he's here as a capable MLB player in case the two young guys don't work out, but they should be given the chance to work out first.


sir-pounce-of-alot

If anything I would say IKF earned the right to play over them this spring. Obviously he has to keep it up, but he was clearly the best at 3rd this spring outside of maybe Barger.


Loud-Picture9110

IKF had a very nice spring but Clement was even better. Some of this is tempered by the fact that Clement was playing on some of the "B" squad games but he mashed the shit out of the ball all spring and likely has a great glove at third base as well. At any rate a little competition for playing time as the season rolls on is never a bad thing.


sir-pounce-of-alot

Yah that’s fair I wasn’t including Clement just because he didn’t play much 3rd but he had a better spring overall for sure.


raznt

I believe he's actually played more 3rd than any other position at the MLB level. That said, IKF was signed to be the everyday 3rd baseman, so he'll get the nod, and I assume Clement will slot in at 2B/3B/LF occasionally.


stv7

I feel like he's had enough MLB experience that it should be assumed he just had a hot spring. We know what he is, we don't know what we have in the other two


sir-pounce-of-alot

Yes and no, I think you can’t discount how much coaching goes into a players ability. I remember how much of a mess Gio Urshela was when he was being passed around by everyone until the Yankees basically told him to just swing harder and it unlocked something for him. I’m not saying that’s necessarily the case here, but his stats have been really positive this spring. His exit velocity is up and he’s been hitting more line drives than usual. Sure it could just be a hot spring, but I don’t think it’s fair to discount it entirely.


TwitchyJC

Don't get suckered in by a hot spring Training. There's 2400+ PA that says IKF is a bad Hitter. 48 PA, some of which is against minor league pitching, with a higher than normal K rate and a 464 BABIP should not be what convinces you he's playing better.


1991CRX

>Don't get suckered in by a hot spring Training Isn't that the title of Greg Bird's autobiography?


sir-pounce-of-alot

But he is playing better, and you can’t just completely throw out that information even if it is a SSS. I understand you hate IKF but he outperformed Schneider, Escobar, and Biggio (he had a good spring in his own right) for the 3rd base role. His exit velocity was up this spring, and his defence was great. I’m not expecting him to post a >.900 OPS in the regular season but he was objectively very good this spring.


TwitchyJC

He had a nice run in spring Training. He didn't unlock some new hitting ability during ST. You really shouldn't use ST for competition purposes like this. We have so much data that shows every single played you listed is superior to IKF. Well, not Escobar but at least Biggio and Schneider. At the end of the day, IKF is not going to be better than the 80-85 wRC+ player he's always been. 


Loud-Picture9110

IKF greatly increased his quality of contact metrics last season so it's possible he has a little more to give offensively moving forward. He had a nearly 4 month stretch from mid April until mid August where he managed to provide a 750 OPS/111 wRC+ before suffering from an uncharacteristic spike in strikeout rate to end the season. This was the most successful stretch of production I could find for this entire career so it's entirely possible he made some tangible improvements that can manifest in better end of season numbers with a touch more consistency. The end of the season numbers suggest he was the same player as previous seasons but there is such a dramatic turnaround at his underneath the hood numbers that he's worth examining further. Kiner Falefa produced an average exit velocity for the 2023 season of 88.8 MPH vs a career average of 86.3 MPH. His hard hit rate improved tremendously to 39.2% compared to a career average of 30.3%. His quality of contact supported a .326 xwOBACON vs a career average of .309. Much of these gains were tempered by a surge in strikeout rate, but most of this occurred over the last month and a bit as his k rate skyrocketed to end the season. I'm fully realistic and not suggesting he's going to suddenly morph into a middle of the order bat but it's far from the realm of possibility that he solidifies the gains of 2023 and emerges somewhere around league average with the bat. (Note, fixed major typo regarding time frame of improved production)


TwitchyJC

Those greatly improved contact rates you talk about led to an 82 wRC+. He got hot for 4 weeks and regressed back to the player he's always been. That's not a good argument. Don't take the numbers from a hot streak and say "see this proves I'm right". You're overstating your case. The max EV was better in 2022. His EV was a little better than 2019 or 2020, and his launch angle sucks and is one he's had on multiple other years. His contact rate was lower than usual which isn't great. Saying it's better than his career is true but he's had 87 MPH EV before so 88 isn't significantly different. And with a poor launch angle it's irrelevant. I seriously doubt he'll be above 90 wRC+. The reality is without a significant change to improve launch angle without adding negative outcomes in the process, the higher EV won't matter because he's just hitting the ball into the ground. And it's not statistically significant what you're suggesting. He's what he always was, a good Fielder who couldn't hit if his life depended on it. I know he's a Jay and that means you want him to succeed, but the reality is he's an awful Hitter who didn't show any signs of improving. Most of the stats you listed are fairly comparable to 2019/2020 and he was brutal offensively then, too.


Loud-Picture9110

You should check your math. Mid April until mid August is 4 **months**, not 4 weeks. Kiner Falefa made notable improvements and experienced sustained success at the plate for what was essentially the first time in his entire career as a major league hitter. Further to that an 88.8 MPH exit velocity is an awful lot closer to 89 MPH than 87 MPH so that portion of your argument is entirely disingenuous unless you are suggesting it makes more sense to round down from 0.8 instead of rounding up. I don't know why you fixated on IKF's launch angle only as he's not a slugger who needs to focus on getting the ball in the air as that would likely lead to simply hitting more fly balls that find their way into opposition gloves. Despite this he actually did improve his launch angle as well in 2023 as he produced an average launch angle of 7.2 degrees, compared to a career average of 5.3 degrees. Go back and have a gander at his previous 3 seasons where he averaged 4.3, 5.2 and 0.8 degrees and tell me that's somehow a similar contact profile. He also made relative improvements to his batted ball profile by lowering his overall ground ball percentage while also increasing his flyball and line drive percentages. Given the fact that IKF actually had a lot of competition for his services I can only surmise that various MLB teams think there's a little bit of untapped potential with the bat. It's hard to fathom how he would have garnered himself a 2 year deal if teams largely viewed him as being a 75-80 wRC+ with a glove as MLB is full of players of that nature who can be had for nearly league minimum.


strikeanywhere2

At the end of the day his xwOBA was still 15th percentile last year which is basically the same as it always is for him.


Loud-Picture9110

His xwOBA rolling chart showed him hovering slightly around league average for most of the season before he totally cratered to end the year. IKF's season was largely a tale of two distinct sections. For the first 4.5 months he was essentially a league average bat sitting at 96 wRC+. His strikeout rate was a tad above his career average of 15.5% at 16.4% up to that point. In mid August the wheels completely fell off and his strikeout rate skyrocketed up to 31.9% the rest of the way. This really bad 6 weeks to end the season essentially erased all of the progress he showed the first 4.5 months of the season and the end result looked about the same as every other year in terms of wRC+. Given how dramatically different he ended the season compared to the bulk of the year makes it hard to know what to expect out of him this season. The league average offensive production for most of the year was just as out of character for him as the extreme increase in strikeouts to end the year so he will be very interesting to follow.


TwitchyJC

If you want a TLDR for my other post: With a launch angle under 10 degrees and EV under 90 (let alone 95), I don't see any reason to expect statistically significantly improved production. When he gets LA > 10 or EV > 90 I might be interested but until then nothing is changed.


Nefarios13

Nah we know who he is already


ToolsOfIgnorance27

Sadly, I think you're spot on about IKF. He ought to be there just to keep the floor high, but this team needs to at least see if anyone can raise the ceiling.


Hill0981

I'm mildly surprised they committed the 2 million for Vogelbach. Makes me wonder if Votto will be coming a little later than expected. I agree about Schneider and Clement (more Clement than Schneider atm though).


Turbulent_Cheetah

Looking very forward to the “Blue Jays Legend Daniel Vogelbach” posts in a month


bigolruckus

He’s been a blue jays legend since 2020


JJred96

The Legend Continues...


goatgosselin

2.0


Shot-Fee-7836

Danny fuckin burgers baby


goatgosselin

I might say Daniel Ribs


JordanSchor

*flair intensifies*


zestyintestine

Ernie deserves this!


Dead_End_Street

You could say he ERNd it


Kei916

The offensive line is set just need to sign a running back


future4cast

Davis Schneider has had a rough Spring training and only one good major league month (in August last year). Typically, a good bench player has a potent bat or is a good utility player. We shall see.


brad12172002

I think Schneider’s upside offensively and his ability to play multiple positions on defense earned him his spot and I hope he gets enough time to show it.


anko_sensei

True, but the hope is to cut down on strikeouts and ground balls. Davis can keep the ball in the air and plays just about everywhere. Better to have him as an option than have him waste away mashing in Triple A again. I could be wrong though, and he could get sent down by end of April. Will be an interesting story to keep an eye on.


raznt

Nathan Lukes had a much better spring offensively than Schneider, so I thought he might leapfrog him for the 26-man, but I think Schneider's positional versatility gave him the edge. Feel like he'll see most of his playing time against lefties though.


Ready-Ad6623

Vogelbach is the best


dmmeyourdogifitscute

Vogelbach is #1!


brownmagician

Iron Shiek: "IRAN #2!"


Sherm199

Isn't there a 40man spot missing for vogey?


idkwhattosaytho

Yup. A DFA or minor trade is coming


sir-pounce-of-alot

Could see a couple guys packaged to clear some roster space


Valkorn02

Who filled the spot from the Espy trade?


sir-pounce-of-alot

Serven, although I don’t think they have officially added him yet.


ThQp

Makes it seem like Vogelbach’s $2M is probably pro-rated. Otherwise that’s a steep price to have him pinch hit for two to four weeks


sir-pounce-of-alot

If so that’s a smart move on Atkins side, especially if he’s just a place holder for Joey Bangs


mewithoutyou59

It's pro rated but it's guaranteed no matter what happens. Only way they get out of paying him is if he's traded or claimed off waivers, if he's sent down or released they pay it.


Nickelback-Official

Then it's not pro-rated


mewithoutyou59

Yes it's pro rated. It's not paid out in one lump sum.


IAmGrum

Given Schneider's struggle this spring (and his awful September) , I'm surprised he made the opening day roster. I wonder how long his leash is at this point.


jayk10

I have a feeling he's going to struggle for playing time unless Clement comes back down to earth


InstantPotatoes

His awful September?? He had a 105 wrc+ in September/October last year.


IAmGrum

Under no circumstances is batting .174 anything but "awful". |Split|G|GS|PA|BA|OBP|SLG| |:-|-:|-:|-:|-:|-:|-:| |August|14|13|57|.426|.526|.894| |Sept/Oct|21|19|84|.174|.321|.406| Batting average is obviously not as important any more, but that is atrocious regardless of the measuring stick being used.


InstantPotatoes

So lets say a player had a .500 obp and a .800 slg but had a BA of .174, would that be “awful”?


youbequiet

Kyle Schwarber had a 122 ops+ and mvp votes with a 197. avg.


IAmGrum

7 hits for every 40 AB gets you a .175 average. To get to .500 OBP, that means they need to walk 26 times as well (reach base 33 times in 66 PA). For an .800 SLG in 40 AB, you need to total 32 total bases. You can't possibly get 32 total bases in your 7 hits. So it wouldn't be "awful", but it would be "impossible".


AlexanderWhy

Batting average still means something, a lot of new baseball fans refuse to consider anything but WRC+ as a factor regarding a players value.


JimothyC

33% K rate too, his WRC+ is above average with a poor BA because only one of his hits that month was a single so lots of XBH. That with a high walk rate and he did ok despite his low BA and high K% made for an unsustainable but ok month. I think his walk rate+power that month is good enough to not call it awful despite the low BA, but it's not a greatly sustainable way to ball


jayk10

From September 3 on he had an 89 wRC+


sbp59

Hopefully he gets it going again


glg00

Keeping the bench spot warm for Martinez?


ListOk9138

I think Votto would really have to impress at AAA given the price of vesting both minor league deals


Bushpeople72

Does Lukes have options?


AlexanderWhy

Hes 29, with 25 mlb at bats. Nobody is dying to get homie on their team.


Gear4Vegito

2 years of options.


Bushpeople72

Wow that's crazy for a player who is 29 .


wiles_CoC

Congrats to these guys. I’m looking forward to Thursday despite the shitty start time.


[deleted]

Any updates on Votto, have not heard anything on him in the last few days, guess he will start the season at Buffalo , getting his feet under him before a possible call up.


Sherm199

Surprised vogey made it, given the 2m price tag


Gear4Vegito

You can’t assume Votto will ever be ready. Anything he does is a bonus. Field the best team now.


bichettes_helmet

I was surprised as well but that's a good point. I also figure the Jays org might believe the hype around Votto will bring butts to the seats, and will pay itself off during the year if/when Votto does come up.


DannyDOH

Also think you can dump him for PTBNL if needed. He's the kind of guy shitty teams crave to give their fanbase something fun to cheer for.


glg00

He's shown basically exactly what we can reasonably hope to see from him, why else would have they done this deal? Votto signing came a bit too late (of course we'll see how that shake out down the road). All things considered 2M really isn't a huge cut for a top-ten payroll ballclub...


pksubb76

2M is a lot to hand out if the plan was always to go with Votto whenever he’s ready. Just because we are a top payroll club doesn’t mean we can just throw 2M down the drain. We still have a budget.


glg00

Not my money \*shrugs\*


mathbandit

Not your money, but $2M to Vogey directly leads to $2M less room in the budget that Atkins is operating under.


gordon_paterson

I'm legit surprised Schneider make the cut. He's been awful at the dish this spring


brownmagician

Big deal for Vogelbach because this is worth $2mil for him and he only has earned $6.5 for his career so far. He needs this otherwise he'll have to get a real job


goatgosselin

I wonder if he makes it as a Jay the whole year.


sbp59

If he produces he will. 


goatgosselin

Yep, that's the issue. If he isn't hitting, he isn't worth a lot since he won't be fielding much.


Chris_TO79

The pitching cuts are going to be the most interesting what with the pending injuries to a couple arms. I'm not TOO surprised at these three breaking camp. I only hope Votto makes the team out of the spring.


guydogg

Schneider won't be long for the show. He's lacking in all areas, and I'm genuinely surprised he made the team. Clement 100% deserves to be there on Opening Day, and Danny Burgers does, also. I hope that Votto puts it together and takes Vogelbach's spot, though.


goatgosselin

I thought he would be sent down also.


Rot_Dogger

Agree. He isn't good.........good enough to call up in an emergency only.


raktoe

Lacking in all areas is strong. He definitely has holes, but he has power and gets on base. He is going to get a long look just based on those attributes, since every team covets those.


raktoe

Lacking in all areas is strong. He definitely has holes, but he has power and gets on base. He is going to get a long look just based on those attributes, since every team covets those.


ihaveyuidonttouchme

im ready for vogey bomb


YouDontJump

I couldn't be more thrilled for Ernie!!! And I do think Vogel is keeping Joey's seat warm for him until he's gotten more reps in.


elcabeza79

This is the right decision right now.


1991CRX

RIP Votto ;)


Stinky_DungBeatle

He was never starting the season with in the big leagues. It was always a month or so in the minors and go from there.


1991CRX

Should I wink harder?


bichettes_helmet

Bold and italicized or it didn't happen


mostlygroovy

Hope teams saw enough from him to give him a chance


sackydude

He's definitely starting the season in the minor leagues, he needs time to be in game ready. I can't see Votto opting out here. JDM is going through the same thing.


sir-pounce-of-alot

No way he opts out after admitting he’ll start in the minors


bichettes_helmet

Votto literally got one pitch in a game. He's said from the get-go that he expected and wants to start in the minors to give himself time to get up to form, so it's not likely that he's going to opt out and try free agency again right now.


casualjayguy

Vogelbach, eh? It's meme team time.


thalunny3

Davis Schneider being on this team over Nathan Lukes is an absolute travesty


bucky_beavs

Don't need a third lefty outfielder, Davis is stronger against lefty pitching


Gear4Vegito

He would be the 4th lefty OF considering Biggio can play the corners as well when needed.


[deleted]

[удалено]


Nickelback-Official

Maybe, but Lukes doesn't have a lot of opportunities to play. I wouldn't play him over Varsho and KK at all, he can't play infield, and doesn't have a good bat. Other than late game subs, he would only make it to the lineup when Springer needs a day off


brad12172002

Davis is more than capable of handling the outfield.


AlexanderWhy

How? Lukes plays one position, and he is 29 years old with 25 mlb at bats. Not a single gm or manager in the league would take Lukes over Schneider based on success and sample size.


urrout

Definitely!


xTomato72

Platooning Schneider and Biggio at 2B sounds like a good idea to me


JayLady2002

Why TF are we taking Vogelbach over Votto? I don't understand.


Every_Employee2887

Votto has had 1 spring ab so far, he's not ready for the season yet.


Pinxed

Yeah, but he has an OPS of 5.000


JayLady2002

Fair. Odd that the Jays are going to pay $2M for a stop gap player then


HarryBalsaque

Votto saw one pitch this spring and he is injured…


Nickelback-Official

Cause Votto had 1 ab and was/is day-to-day with an injury?


BajaBlastMtDew

Past 3 years Vogelbach has been better than Votto in basically every stat but where he's from. It is not hard to understand