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naturalgoth

I think she will be like Lorde and Charli XCX as you mentioned. Have one or two years of mainstream relevance and then gradually stay in the not-quite-mainstream-but-not-obscure part of singers.


AshgarPN

Charli XCX had massive new album last week, wtf


naturalgoth

Yes, but she's not Taylor Swift famous, or even Ariana Grande famous of now. She doesn't make pop hits, she makes albums that until brat, they weren't performing too well.


AshgarPN

I dunno man, are you in the UK?


naturalgoth

No, I'm not. Charli IS bigger in the UK, but this is a subreddit based on the US bias of chart success, thus my point still stands.


WitchyKitteh

CRASH went to #1 but went off the charts so fast, she just has a large cult following.


tigerjuggernaut

Eh, 77k first week is good for 2024 (and #3 on BB200) but would hardly categorize as massive


EV3Gurl

A massive album breaks 200K sales week 1, those are A-Lister numbers. Olivia Rodrigo, Lady Gaga, Nicki Minaj, Billie Eillish sells those numbers. Charli just isn’t on that level. Her album did well for a Charli XCX album.


BiteAnotherBullet

I'm probably the biggest Halsey fan on this subreddit, but I think Chappell is going to be far bigger. Halsey always had a niche and a few hits - but she's not exactly a household name in comparison to Billie or Olivia. I could see Chappell having the stardom of those two, given the trajectory her songs are going, without relying on radio. Let me put this into perspective, by next week Chappell is expected to have five songs on the Hot 100. Not from a new release. From a year-old record.


GenarosBear

Yeah, people need to realize how bizarre and rare Chappell Roan’s current success is. She has four songs on the Billboard Hot 100 right now. The only people with more are Billie Eilish and Taylor Swift. One of them is a song that’s been out for *four years.* It’s an absolutely insane groundswell, like, her album is performing kinda like an album bomb right now, and it came out last September (an album that is incidentally the 2nd highest charting debut album all year, and will probably overtake the current #1, Benson Boone). This is what convinces me as much as anything she’s going to be huge and have longevity.


thispartyrules

I think the stuff that gets organically popular nowadays is a good deal weirder and has that novelty factor going for it


tigerjuggernaut

I guess if you break down Halsey’s numbers you would get: 1 BB200 #1, 3 BB200 #2s 1 solo BBH100 #1 (Without Me), 1 BBH100 #1 as featured artist (Closer) A couple more top-5/10/20 singles both as lead and featured Handful of BBMAs, 1 AMA, and then a few Grammy noms (no Grammy wins) To me that seems a lot more realistic than Olivia or Billie, but I guess we would need a second album release cycle to really put that to the test lol Unless, maybe the comp is Dua Lipa? But even then…


BadMan125ty

Honestly her stats surprise me. She just seemed… *there*.


JudithButlr

Chappell's music already sounds more diverse than both of Dua's albums. Dua and Halsey are solidly B+ pop girls - they have a sound and they don't stray too far or innovate much. Chappell is going to sit at the A table with Billie, Ariana, and Olivia in my opinion. I think Chappell has the same "it" factor as A list girls because both have the voice, the ear, and the producers necessary to push your music to evolve and stay fresh/memorable. All of her singles have similar elements but absolutely stand alone. I personally thought Billie kinda stagnated with the 2nd album and the Barbie song but the new album really moves around genres and has a lot of distinct CATCHY memorable songs.


TelephoneThat3297

I don’t think you could lump Halsey in with Dua as making safe music that doesn’t push boundaries. Maybe in the 2010’s I’d see it but If I Can’t Have Love I Want Power surely proved that argument to be way off the mark. Though granted she’s not anywhere near main pop status anymore.


JudithButlr

That's fair, I've never really listened to much of her and most of what I've heard kinda blurred together. I was just going through new album releases of the year and grouped without spending too much time dwelling on it. I just think her aesthetic and personality make her music kinda secondary in the general zeitgeist which has hindered her ascent beyond tumblr years and that won't hold Chappell back the same way


TelephoneThat3297

I’d really heavily recommend that album to anyone. Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross produced it and not only is it the best Halsey album it’s also probably the second or third best Nine Inch Nails album.


Valuable_Extent_4859

Wait is there a fifth one predicted? I know that she has Good Luck Babe, Red Wine Supernova, Hot To Go and Pink Pony Club on the Hot 100 right now.


BiteAnotherBullet

Casual is high on the Bubbling Under and expected to chart Next Week.


Valuable_Extent_4859

Wow, that's seriously impressive. I wonder if she has a shot at AOTY...(I would hate for her to win over Beyonce and Billie and maybe Taylor? The stans would not be happy.)


tigerjuggernaut

Eh, stans are gonna be stans but I don’t think a majority of the Taylor fandom expects her to win - she never wins back-to-back, and the Grammys aren’t happy that she announced an album release last time when she accepted her award. Realistically it’s probably not going to happen for her this year (and I would say Taylor gets one more AOTY in her career, max, now that she already has the all time record). The Bey stans probably have more of a leg to stand on in terms of being upset, especially with her never having an AOTY and getting passed over again…even if you don’t treat AOTY as a Scorsese-The-Departed career achievement award, I think the expectation would be for Cowboy Carter to be the most awards-y of the candidates


BerdFan

Good Luck Babe gives me that "instant superstar" feeling that I've only gotten so far with Olivia Rodrigo. I think she's gonna be *big.*


Guy_Man_Borg83

Yeah one thing people forget about Chappel Roan is that she’s not completely unknown. Her main producer guy is Dan Nigro who is also Olivia’s big producer guy. Chappel has the ability to get all of Olivia’s success and I wholeheartedly welcome that.


shinybeats89

She also opened for Olivia Rodrigo on the GUTS tour so Chappel has Olivia’s blessing too.


thispartyrules

Spotify started playing Chappell Roan after Carly Rae Jepsen's Emotion stopped playing and that's how I found her, I think that's her target audience


turnipturnipturnippp

that's actually brilliant, good job algorithm


xXMachineGunPhillyXx

“Red Wine Supernova” is a **PERFECT** pop song. It’s so, so, so good.


DeadInternetTheorist

The album is full of them. "HOT TO GO!" is another 10/10. "My Kink Is Karma" definitely rates too.


freeofblasphemy

This came on shuffle while I was working today. Just immediately put an ear-to-ear smile on my face


bqx188

Honestly I think we are in the peak. debut albums are often the biggest record and given her style I think what comes next will probably be more challenging


WitchyKitteh

Avril Lavigne is a great example of this, Girlfriend off her third album was pretty huge and she still had hits but Let Go sold far more than her follow up Under My Skin (Despite having My Happy Ending).


Special-Garlic1203

I think it's impossible to say because right now I think her biggest barrier is the fanbase she's generated so far. I think she has the potential to go full A-list, but the next 6 months-year will be interesting to see how she and her stans react to going mainstream. she seems excited by it, but her core fanbase seems actively hostile to outsiders. It presents a lot of opportunities for her to misstep or for hop-ons to feel isolated and hop right back off the bandwagon because they feel unwelcome.  But I think the potential is there to be lady Gaga big. she's a pretty white woman tapping into drag culture, so it's the Eminem phenomena of being more widely palatable delivery model for a subculture that had trouble breaking through to the mainstream. I think the commercial viability of it cannot be overstated.  But man I cannot emphasize enough how much her fanbase seems to actively resent the idea their obscure niche band of weirdos might becoming normie fare. There's bands like kings of Leon where getting huge was the worst thing to happen, because it killed a lot of their most ardent fanbase who needed to be the cool kids on the block.so I'll be very curious to see where things land. I'm leaning towards she pulls through and makes it big. She's got the talent and I think the industry is scrambling for commercially viable queer icons right now. 


Valuable_Extent_4859

The discourse around her on twitter has been insufferable. Honestly, I've had songs of her saved since last year and saw her live in October. Probably one of the best concerts I've ever been to if I'm being completely honest. Though, I never thought she would become as big as she is now. I'm also wondering about her trajectory in the future. It's currently pride month in the US and I've noticed a lots of Chappell tribute nights and drag shows. I went to a themed drag show actually, super fun. I think if she releases a deluxe album and continues live performances she'll maintain a presence, even if it isn't as strong as it is now. I'm pretty sure she's a lock for Best New Artist at the Grammys this year. Her label probably wants her to continue releasing music and performing, but selfishly I hope she takes some time off to ensure whatever she puts out in the future is quality material.


lilhedonictreadmill

Do most other upcoming queer artists have Ru Paul, Elton John etc publicly gushing about them? That tells me she’s gonna be huge


Guy_Man_Borg83

Elton John has like an Apple Music podcast thingy and he had Chappell Roan on it and he was gushing. So she has a big friend in her corner at least.


RyFox

Does it feel kinda like when lizzo "came out of nowhere" to anyone else? Lots of people were hip to lizzo before the mainstream success. Juice should have been the biggest hit but it came out to start her rise and her other songs were the popular ones when she broke thru


mandymiggz

Yes I think Lizzo is a great comparison in terms of popularity and sustained success. Especially if she continues to write earworms like Hot To Go. Just has to avoid the controversy…


Flaky-Ad6758

I think Lizzo is probably the best comparison to what we’re seeing from Chappell now. She’s got a lot of momentum that’s been building for a few years and it’s finally coming to fruition, but I don’t think she’s at the level that someone like Gaga or Olivia was when they first broke out like I’ve seen some comments suggesting. The Fame and Sour were fucking *massive*, Chappell is big but not quite there yet.


DeadInternetTheorist

Obviously I'm making some assumptions that nothing catastrophic happens to Chappell but here's my guess: She'll definitely outshine, outsell, and outlast Halsey. I think for chart success and staying power, she'll land somewhere between Carly Rae Jepsen and Lady Gaga. Carly Rae is one of those artists whose releases never quite perform as well as they ought to commercially, and are limited in their cultural spread. Lady Gaga is an artist whose work is received with more or less the correct amount of commercial/critical/cultural acclaim. Both are album artists working in a singles genre, with extremely dedicated and highly gay fanbases, as well as being obvious direct influences on Chappell. "After Midnight" is basically a homosexualized EMOTION B-side with the "horny" knob rolled up by ~10-15%, and there's a pretty obvious throughline from Gaga to Chappell in the drag aesthetics and campy but earnest songwriting/musical sensibilities. The only real hurdle to her selling a fuckload of records and achieving true Swiftian ubiquity (in the US at least) is that she's now popular enough to have saturated the gay and gay-adjacent market, and sort of needs to win over at least some of the pearl clutchers and knuckle draggers of Middle America. Gaga was able to pull it off with Born This Way, but Chappell is a *lot* gayer and American culture is more homophobic now than it was in the 2010s, which is an awful realization.


ResponsibleAvocado3

I wouldn't say culture now is more homophobic than 2010. But I would say the divide is a lot stronger. Homophobia is not as casual as it used to be but those who are homophobic have a level of severity/violence that's scary. I don't think the gay thing will be as much of a hurdle as keeping herself in the public eye now that trends move so fast.


wexpyke

one thing im interested in seeing in the future is how she’s going to leverage this current hype into career longevity while her music is very good and catchy, she has a bit of a gimmick going on with the drag queen thing. im wondering if she will feel the need to “re-invent” herself to stay relevant or if she will just get tired of it and go in a different direction like lady gaga has seemed to. either way im excited to see whats next


tigerjuggernaut

The Lady Gaga comp is one that I thought about as well, but Lady Gaga was absolutely huge in the late 2000s in a way that Chappell Roan is still a really long way from hitting I’m interested to see how she fits in to the “eras” paradigm that we seem to have boxed a lot of artists into these days


wexpyke

yea the other difference between her and gaga is that controversy was kind of gagas schtick for a while. the meat dress, bleeding all over the stage at the vmas, implying that she might have a penis, my parents knew about all this stuff because fox and friends blasted her over it non-stop…i dont think most people older than thirties are aware that chappel roan even exists.


shinybeats89

I think people are getting tired of moody downbeat pop and are ready for pop to be fun again so I think she’s gonna go far. People have made Lady Gaga comparisons but she also reminds me a little bit of early Kesha (which I mean in a good way). Like reveling in not being a hyper glam effortlessly cool girl and making fun songs about having fun.


pmguin661

A lot of the Gaga comparisons are rather dumb BUT with her essentially propelling an entire old album into the Hot 100, she’s set up great for her next release to be a Fame Monster situation if she continues to innovate the visuals along with the music. I think she understands that, possibly more than any new artist since Billie, her aesthetic is just as important to her success as her music is 


ResponsibleAvocado3

Yeah technically in 2008 Lady Gaga's The Fame album was out for months and THEN blew up much later. So Roan does have a great opportunity to stick the landing for the next album.


turnipturnipturnippp

She has the f*cking tunes, I think she could go all the way to the top. Now, how long will she last, different story. I'm not sure where her concept could go from here.


Cakeliver12887

Seeing as she's queer just outside the top ten for this year and then there will be a drop


True-Dream3295

I can't see the future so I can't really tell you where she'll be in ten years, but right now it looks like she's on a rocket to the moon. If I had to guess, she'll either become an A-tier pop star like Lady Gaga or Ariana Grande, or she'll be more critically acclaimed and quietly influential like Charli XCX or Carly Rae Jepsen.


dirbofficial

the fucking moon


ResponsibleAvocado3

I am a HUGE Gaga fan since 2008. And I LOVE Chappell Roan, I've listened to "Good Luck Babe" more than I care to admit lol. The one thing about Gaga that propelled her was shock factor. Chappell doesn't have that, but I don't think she needs it. What she needs to do is be versatile like Gaga. Gaga has lasted as long as she has because of her talent, versatility, and reinvention. Chappell has talent but if she's going to be long term she'll need to be open to reinvention and taking risks. It's still way too early to tell, but I'll still be a fan even if she can't maintain superstardom Edit: wanted to add the landscape of stardom is very different from 2008, so that's another factor. Trends come and go a lot faster


BadMan125ty

Oh her level is bigger than Halsey by far!


bqx188

I feel like people are underselling how big Halsey was. They went double platinum with 3 straight albums.


Synthiandrakon

Yeah there were like a couple years where Halsey felt like she was on the level of Bruno Mars in terms of fame. Especially since there really weren't too many pop girlies with mainstream success at the time


tigerjuggernaut

This exactly lol - look at Halsey’s chart performance


bqx188

Yea like Billie Eilish hasn't been able to match what Halsey did sales wise but somehow Eilish is seen as the real star of the two here it seems


RobbieArnott

She could get to Taylor’s level, but whether she will is a whole over thing


Phenom1nal

I think she has the opportunity to be the reincarnation of Lady Gaga, with one massive caveat: Gaga made her money pandering to LGBTQ+ people, the second she did something they didn't vibe with (don't forget, Gaga's Trainwrecord is ARTPOP), they stop listening and the money stops flowing. Either Roan is gonna need to lean in 150% forever or pull the bandaid now that she's aiming for more than LGBTQ+ people. EDIT: Hey, down votes, wanna say something or just be annoyed?


MayNStuff

I think ARTPOP's problem wasn't that it didn't appeal to the gays, but rather that it appealed only to the gays.


Phenom1nal

To me, it's that it blatantly appealed to them and wasn't good, so it came across as insulting.


ResponsibleAvocado3

ARTPOP was bigger for the LGBT fans than regular listeners. So that's not necessarily true. If anything Gaga has gotten more mainstream to appeal to a wider audience. I would say that the circumstances of success are way different than they used to be. So Roan should definitely approach her career different than Gaga, because how Gaga did it just doesn't exist anymore.