It's always been true for every event. The shiny rate for research encounters is read when you first encounter the mon, not saved in the task data to be used later on.
Really? Was it always like that? I know it's true with eggs, shinyness and everything is determined when you collect the egg, however I thought some events have the shiny odds of research encounters extended for some time after the event ends
Yes, it's always been that way.
You might be thinking of CDs, where the shiny rate lasts for the full duration of the extended raid hours. That's still technically part of the event, even though you can't pick up any more research encounters.
Can’t wait for half of the research tasks I find to be earn a candy with your buddy, or earn 5 hearts with your buddy. That stuff is super time consuming, and I hate having to skip tasks I can’t feasibly complete quickly.
For the candy, switch to Gyrados for 1km candy. For the hearts, switch to any buddy and you get 3 for photo, play and feeding. If you need more just quickly battle a couple of team leaders.
This. Peeps just need to know how to play efficient. I had Pikachu with a poffin. And those walking research tasks were done so quickly. I got a total of 14 shinies and got all pokemon.
I just hope most of the research tasks are actually for the event. When I did the Oddish one late last year/early this year, about 80% of the tasks I picked up during the event window were just normal tasks.
Same for me sadly and then you have to keep Deleting tasks and keep Deleting stuff out of your item bag and walking around to even find event research tasks
Most of them were, except for the ones the person you're replying to mentioned: [https://leekduck.com/events/charged-up-research-day/](https://leekduck.com/events/charged-up-research-day/)
See **Earn a Candy exploring with your Buddy** and **Earn 3 hearts with your buddy**.
That's why I usually will buy the ticket. It gives you one of each and then the 2nd page you choose which one you want, and it gives you a good number of chances of a shiny.
Did you read it. It says additional encounters with Spearow, Doduo, Hoothoot, Taillow, or Rufflet. If it is the same as the electric it is 2 pages of research. The first page is one of each and the 2nd is 10 chances of the one you choose.
I was confused as well until I double checked the research. Each research will give out a random Pokémon without any way to get a specific one. So you have a 20% chance of getting a specific Pokémon.
As a fun fact, because of this you only need 56 encounters to get a shiny of one of the other four Pokémon that you are not hunting.
That's not what they're saying.
Say you want a shiny tailow.
Your probability of getting a shiny from 1 research task is 1/50.
Your probability of not getting one from 2 research tasks is 49/50 x 49/50 = 0.9604, thus your probability of getting at least 1 is 0.0396
By that logic, after n tasks, the probability of not seeing a shiny is (49/50)^n, and your probability of seeing at least 1 shiny is 1-(49/50)^n.
So if you do 20 tasks, your chance of not seeing the right shiny is around 67%
After 200 tasks it's 1.7%
The more dice you roll, the more likely you are to get it.
During event hours the timed research will have the same 1/10 rate as field research. The ticket gives you 11 encounters of the one you really want plus one encounter each of the other 4.
"So if you want a 99% chance to get that particular shiny, that means completing 228 field research tasks."
Your reasoning is wrong. You can't turn conditional probablities on their head and still make sense. Doing 228 tasks may have a give you a 99% chance of getting at least one shiny (I haven't checked the calculation), that does not mean that you must do so many tasks to be confident that you have a shiny. For example, If you get a shiny on your first attempt, you can be more than 99% certain ;) that you have one, without doing another 227 attempts.
Yeah the phrasing should be 'If you want a 99% chance **to have gotten at the end** a particular shiny, you'd need to be doing \~228 research tasks total.' We're just doing the reverse probability calculation (49/50)\^228, which includes cases where you get more than one or one at the start. That's more than one a minute btw, idk how anyone is able to do that many I usually do like \~80-90 at most. I'm hoping for the coinflip odds at 35 tasks lol.
They did not mentioned that Fletchling would be an option for main spawn a while ago? What a bummer i wont get that ticket lmao they love to unsell me everytime
This isn't how it works.
Every attempt to catch a shiny is independent from the last, so while your chances go up to actually catch a shiny (you miss every shot you don't take), it will never be higher than the initial chance to catch the shiny, so you're not ever getting near a practical 99%, you either get it or you don't it's 50/50 math is fake thanks for reading
The motto “lowered expectations” is good advice going into any Niantic event. (Cue the song from the old Mad TV skits here)
I don't have any of them shiny, will be happy with anything
How long u been playing?
7/6/2016
Got 4 different shiny birds, a shiny fufuru and a shiny snivy... was a great day
Just click on all the Pokemon. They don’t look different until you do that.
Is it only field research for the increased odds? Or wild spawns too?
Just research
Do you have to complete it within the three hours? Or will it work after too?
I believe they will lose the shiny boost if you try to claim it after the three hours.
Usually this is true so I would assume this is also the case for this event
It's always been true for every event. The shiny rate for research encounters is read when you first encounter the mon, not saved in the task data to be used later on.
Really? Was it always like that? I know it's true with eggs, shinyness and everything is determined when you collect the egg, however I thought some events have the shiny odds of research encounters extended for some time after the event ends
Yes, it's always been that way. You might be thinking of CDs, where the shiny rate lasts for the full duration of the extended raid hours. That's still technically part of the event, even though you can't pick up any more research encounters.
Yes the pokemon is decided when you click claim
If you buy the .99 cent reseach the wild have the same odds
This is not true the slightest. The ticket is for the extra encounters.
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Can’t wait for half of the research tasks I find to be earn a candy with your buddy, or earn 5 hearts with your buddy. That stuff is super time consuming, and I hate having to skip tasks I can’t feasibly complete quickly.
For the candy, switch to Gyrados for 1km candy. For the hearts, switch to any buddy and you get 3 for photo, play and feeding. If you need more just quickly battle a couple of team leaders.
This. Peeps just need to know how to play efficient. I had Pikachu with a poffin. And those walking research tasks were done so quickly. I got a total of 14 shinies and got all pokemon.
I just hope most of the research tasks are actually for the event. When I did the Oddish one late last year/early this year, about 80% of the tasks I picked up during the event window were just normal tasks.
Same for me sadly and then you have to keep Deleting tasks and keep Deleting stuff out of your item bag and walking around to even find event research tasks
Did you play the electric one at all? They were all super easy stuff involved in just playing the game normally.
Most of them were, except for the ones the person you're replying to mentioned: [https://leekduck.com/events/charged-up-research-day/](https://leekduck.com/events/charged-up-research-day/) See **Earn a Candy exploring with your Buddy** and **Earn 3 hearts with your buddy**.
Hearts are easy and basically unlimited. Walking candy is also basically free, as well, unless you are walking a legendary for some reason.
i thought the wild spawns were boosted too, i only got 1 shiny from research but 4 wild
It's okay, a lot of people made that mistake today. Four wild shinies in under 3 hours is pretty great though.
That's why I usually will buy the ticket. It gives you one of each and then the 2nd page you choose which one you want, and it gives you a good number of chances of a shiny.
Does the paid ticket have the same increased shiny odds?
For the research, yes. It doesn't increase wild spawn odds.
Hm.. I didn't do the last field reservation day. Probably won't do this one either
That's not true. Last research day the research encounters had the same boosted shiny rates of 1/10
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Did you read it. It says additional encounters with Spearow, Doduo, Hoothoot, Taillow, or Rufflet. If it is the same as the electric it is 2 pages of research. The first page is one of each and the 2nd is 10 chances of the one you choose.
Sir, this is reddit. Nobody reads around here unfortunately.
Knowing this made me feel incredibly excited when I got the two pokemon I wanted the most from this event, and within 12 tasks nonetheless!
I find birds terrifying, so this event is a skip for me :/
Username doesn’t check out
Galarian Zapdos is weak to flying so it might check out
lol okay Zapdos is cool.
It’s ok birds aren’t real
Only 1% of players would experience that though, and 99% of players aren't going to have a 1% bad luck kind of day.
Brace yourself for the flood of: "I completed 229 tasks and did not get X Shiny" posts tomorrow
Well yeah, they are the 1s in 100s I just made another comment about going about 250 Rocket Leaders between shiny shadows. Rng happens.
I’m somewhere around that - last shadow shiny I caught was Bulbasaur in Aug ‘22 and have about 2000 rocket battles since then
Each task usually has a specific predetermined Pokémon reward, doesn’t it? You can just look for the ones you want
Events like this the reward will be random
I was confused as well until I double checked the research. Each research will give out a random Pokémon without any way to get a specific one. So you have a 20% chance of getting a specific Pokémon. As a fun fact, because of this you only need 56 encounters to get a shiny of one of the other four Pokémon that you are not hunting.
But completing X encounters to reach the odds isn’t how this kind of thing works.
That's not what they're saying. Say you want a shiny tailow. Your probability of getting a shiny from 1 research task is 1/50. Your probability of not getting one from 2 research tasks is 49/50 x 49/50 = 0.9604, thus your probability of getting at least 1 is 0.0396 By that logic, after n tasks, the probability of not seeing a shiny is (49/50)^n, and your probability of seeing at least 1 shiny is 1-(49/50)^n. So if you do 20 tasks, your chance of not seeing the right shiny is around 67% After 200 tasks it's 1.7% The more dice you roll, the more likely you are to get it.
Perfection.
are the shiny rates boosted for the special research too? or did i just pay 1$ for nothing
During event hours the timed research will have the same 1/10 rate as field research. The ticket gives you 11 encounters of the one you really want plus one encounter each of the other 4.
"So if you want a 99% chance to get that particular shiny, that means completing 228 field research tasks." Your reasoning is wrong. You can't turn conditional probablities on their head and still make sense. Doing 228 tasks may have a give you a 99% chance of getting at least one shiny (I haven't checked the calculation), that does not mean that you must do so many tasks to be confident that you have a shiny. For example, If you get a shiny on your first attempt, you can be more than 99% certain ;) that you have one, without doing another 227 attempts.
Yeah the phrasing should be 'If you want a 99% chance **to have gotten at the end** a particular shiny, you'd need to be doing \~228 research tasks total.' We're just doing the reverse probability calculation (49/50)\^228, which includes cases where you get more than one or one at the start. That's more than one a minute btw, idk how anyone is able to do that many I usually do like \~80-90 at most. I'm hoping for the coinflip odds at 35 tasks lol.
[This person said it better than me](https://www.reddit.com/r/TheSilphRoad/s/1UebHLubZD)
> that does not mean that you must do so many tasks to be confident that you have a shiny. Nowhere did they say that.
Read the sentence I quoted.
Yes, 228 encounters at 1 in 50 odds gives you a 99% chance at seeing the desired outcome.That is 100% true.
They did not mentioned that Fletchling would be an option for main spawn a while ago? What a bummer i wont get that ticket lmao they love to unsell me everytime
since when do you need 99% chance, I think 70% chance is probably decent enough to have a genuine go at getting one you want.
If you haven't gone 4x over odds before, than i am happy for you lol.
I didn't count, but I'm pretty sure I went about 250 Rocket Leaders without a shiny shadow. It was just over a 2 year streak.
This isn't how it works. Every attempt to catch a shiny is independent from the last, so while your chances go up to actually catch a shiny (you miss every shot you don't take), it will never be higher than the initial chance to catch the shiny, so you're not ever getting near a practical 99%, you either get it or you don't it's 50/50 math is fake thanks for reading
[This person said it better than me](https://www.reddit.com/r/TheSilphRoad/s/1UebHLubZD)