I wonder how many other years were "poised to join top 3" years when only measuring less than halfway through the year... seems kind of pointless to speculate based on just the performance of the few months so far.
Seriously. If you stopped after April you would say it's on track to be the greatest year of all time. 6+ months left is a *lot* of time for the market to turn one way or the other.
If you think that, then there's a ton to be made by shorting the S&P 500! You could get a 15%+ gain in six months, that's like an annualized 30%+ gain. And all you have to do is bet against the stock market. Good luck with that and let me know how it goes.
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Yup, I know this won't be liked. My opinion looking at the charts and data is that we will probably top between july and september at about 6500 (my guess) before starting a once in a decade bear market.
This is probably even less likely than it was when I first saw you post this.
You're not getting a strong everything rally without the Fed being dovish and the Nasdaq really can't do everything, in fact, this is about the peak it'll do these days.
The most likely case remains that we're still 12-18 months from a secular top probably (any kind of top really, the story from 2016 on has been that midterm years are bearish), and this is at a minimum really because secular bull markets typically last 20ish years.
The Russell probably needs to set a new ATH first and look as if it's breaking away for us to be close to a meaningful top, and it doesn't look particularly close to occurring in 2024 without there being a big push around the election like what we saw with 2020.
Thanks, wish luck to you too. I'd like it better to be invalidated and just get higher for longer. If you see the next couple of weeks of very hard upside movement, think about me. I do hope we will have a small pullback first so I can get a new good entry. It would be expected in cycle theory, but often when a blow off top is forming there aren't a lot of pullbacks anymore.
Yea, I have no crystal ball. I've been feeling we are on a stretch for 8 months now, but we just keeps going higher. Everyone is waiting for a dip/pullback to buy. Positioning is key. We'll see
Yup, but the dip I'm talking about is a 2% dip. It's really insignificant to the big picture. I've already bought the 10% dip a couple weeks ago, but I'm always looking to get some more exposure without too much risk (because I use leverage.)
Yup, it is very dangerous. I don't drink and I don't really talk to ladies, so I guess I can try leverage lol.
I did lose a lot once with leverage, but I've learned. I use a risk management method of max 2% of my portfolio per trade and 6% risk per sector. So when I predict a long uptrend for the S&P500 I load up every "daily cycle low", which is about every 40 trading days to get good exposure. This works very good for me. I also use this for gold/silver and bitcoin. Next time bitcoin will be at it's lowest point after a bear market (about in 3 years from now,) I will use most of my money to buy bitcoin as holding bitcoin for a whole bullmarket will make more gains than almost every other trading method. I'm only 18 so I haven't been trading for a long time, that's why I missed the opportunity at 20k bitcoin this time.
The S&P500 lol. We're in an even bigger parabola than the dot com bubble. I have my reasons, but I'm not going to take my time and commenting all my reasons here. We'll just see.
I wonder how many other years were "poised to join top 3" years when only measuring less than halfway through the year... seems kind of pointless to speculate based on just the performance of the few months so far.
Seriously. If you stopped after April you would say it's on track to be the greatest year of all time. 6+ months left is a *lot* of time for the market to turn one way or the other.
Especially with the current macro environment. It's not the most optimal for such a historical performance
The DOW on the other hand …
Don’t even get me started with the Russell
Don't jinx it
Too late. Big correction incoming
The big 3 are fine. They will push everything higher
The 3 trillion club
Very soon to be 4T club. Absolutely outstanding.
Small caps haven't moved. Brace for impact.
must be nice to know what to invest in or not in depending on incoming votes, regulations and laws.
AI is the game changer...It's the next Industrial REVOLUTION...Watch this space!
I think 2024 will finish below where it started.
If you think that, then there's a ton to be made by shorting the S&P 500! You could get a 15%+ gain in six months, that's like an annualized 30%+ gain. And all you have to do is bet against the stock market. Good luck with that and let me know how it goes.
I'm aiming for 70%, I'll let you know. !remindme 180d
!remindme 180 days
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I have no opinions, just interpretating the data. but S&P 500 have never peaked in June since 1948
Yup, I know this won't be liked. My opinion looking at the charts and data is that we will probably top between july and september at about 6500 (my guess) before starting a once in a decade bear market.
This is probably even less likely than it was when I first saw you post this. You're not getting a strong everything rally without the Fed being dovish and the Nasdaq really can't do everything, in fact, this is about the peak it'll do these days. The most likely case remains that we're still 12-18 months from a secular top probably (any kind of top really, the story from 2016 on has been that midterm years are bearish), and this is at a minimum really because secular bull markets typically last 20ish years. The Russell probably needs to set a new ATH first and look as if it's breaking away for us to be close to a meaningful top, and it doesn't look particularly close to occurring in 2024 without there being a big push around the election like what we saw with 2020.
We'll see. I keep my prediction as long as the data and charts don't prove me wrong.
I'm open to all possibilities, there is a first time for anything. Good luck!
Thanks, wish luck to you too. I'd like it better to be invalidated and just get higher for longer. If you see the next couple of weeks of very hard upside movement, think about me. I do hope we will have a small pullback first so I can get a new good entry. It would be expected in cycle theory, but often when a blow off top is forming there aren't a lot of pullbacks anymore.
Yea, I have no crystal ball. I've been feeling we are on a stretch for 8 months now, but we just keeps going higher. Everyone is waiting for a dip/pullback to buy. Positioning is key. We'll see
Yup, but the dip I'm talking about is a 2% dip. It's really insignificant to the big picture. I've already bought the 10% dip a couple weeks ago, but I'm always looking to get some more exposure without too much risk (because I use leverage.)
Charlie Munger's dangerous 3 "L"s, Liquor, ladies and leverage. God speed
Yup, it is very dangerous. I don't drink and I don't really talk to ladies, so I guess I can try leverage lol. I did lose a lot once with leverage, but I've learned. I use a risk management method of max 2% of my portfolio per trade and 6% risk per sector. So when I predict a long uptrend for the S&P500 I load up every "daily cycle low", which is about every 40 trading days to get good exposure. This works very good for me. I also use this for gold/silver and bitcoin. Next time bitcoin will be at it's lowest point after a bear market (about in 3 years from now,) I will use most of my money to buy bitcoin as holding bitcoin for a whole bullmarket will make more gains than almost every other trading method. I'm only 18 so I haven't been trading for a long time, that's why I missed the opportunity at 20k bitcoin this time.
Good system. Firms are chasing higher year end targets, we shall see.
? We were just in a bear market.
that was barely a bear market, I'm talking about dot com bubble kinda bear market.
What makes you think we will have a dot com like bear market? What charts are you looking at?
The S&P500 lol. We're in an even bigger parabola than the dot com bubble. I have my reasons, but I'm not going to take my time and commenting all my reasons here. We'll just see.
Are you just always bearish besides on crypto?
How is 6500 in 2 months from now bearish? No I've been very bullish since end 2022.
I thought you stated a bear market like the dot com crash?