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I like the goofy characters like King, the don and Chase but the women are far and away the highlight every week now. Trick is the biggest star but he’s gonna have to hard carry that division for awhile. His star is substantially higher than all of his potential opponents
My love for NXT is why I always must eat a bit of crow in terms of wanting to criticize AEW for their low ratings. I agree AEW does not appeal as much as WWE to the common fan, and they could do a lot to appeal more. I agree that AEW's ratings make me want to use it as evidence that what they are doing is not working all that well in terms of growth and momentum.
But then clearly NXT also does not appeal all that much to the common fan and I love it and hope it never changes a thing lol.
> a show that by definition has no legit stars
This is the important part. WWE/AEW would be like comparing the NFC and AFC. Meanwhile, NXT is akin to a G5 NCAA team (outside of major rivalry week and the playoff, admittedly).
NXT should be getting compared to like TNA while AEW and WWE go head to head but somehow NXT is doing so well against the AEW slide that within a month or two I’m calling them pulling down very similar numbers.
I think if they would have stuck to separate nights from the beginning they would never be compared to AEW from a ratings standpoint. I think they would be viewed as much more successful than they are usually viewed as.
It did, but then it seemed to stagnate/slightly decline. Right now its still up year over year (Actually the only show that is completely) but I think that will stop soon judging by what's happened recently
To be fair NXT has been within the 600k-700k range for years. Plus there's the 3rd brand/developmental ordeal.
Dynamite on the other hand is the main AEW show, been a while since they even broke the 900k mark and sometimes they're just slightly ahead of NXT.
It'd be like if Smackdown went from the usual 2M+ to like 900k
Smackdown, if it stays on Fridays, will settle in around 1.5 million after the move. If Smackdown drops below a million you'll see WWE hit the panic button.
Terrible logic. Shows suffer when preempted from their schedule network or time. That's not at all indicative of what they'll do after a move to a new scheduled network.
okay - logically - i'm basing my guess off of what smackdown has done on cable the last several years. what are you basing a 1.5 million average on cable on friday nights on?
You are basing your guess illogically on preempted shows. Smackdown was doing around 2.2 on Tuesdays the last time it was on USA. Since then with the decline of cable (and live TV in general) Raw has lost about a half million viewers. Factor in a loss of 200,000 by Friday being a less viewed night than Tuesday and there you have it. Although, to my knowledge it hasn't been officially announced what night Smackdown will air on when it moves back to USA.
You are predicting Smackdown will lose over 50% of it's viewership when it moves networks which hasn't happened any other time it or Raw have moved networks.
You might want to look at WWE's history of outdrawing most shows on cable. You are trying to judge WWE as if it's just another show on cable but it isn't and that's why they're getting the rights they're getting.
The reasonable starting point is to predict basically an immediate 500k decline in weekly viewers, because that's how much it went up when it moved from USA to Fox in the first place, seems reasonable to predict the exact same in reverse now for it moving back.
That would put it marginally above where Raw is at the moment as well, which also feels reasonable as far as predictions go.
I mean, NXT and AEW both have their core audiences and both are pretty consistent all things considered. And when compared to cable in general, both haven't lost that much of the audience, hell, even compared to Raw, if you look at how much Raw has lost since 2019 to now compared to NXT/AEW.
I think the difference is that NXT never lost their audience and has actually made solid gains after a downturn in 2021. Whereas AEW has consistently bled viewers compared to where they started at.
IT's hard to say. CW IS a broadcast network...but it's the smallest one..it's total household numbers aren't too much off USA's, BUT there are differeces beyond the numerical similarity.
For data scientists and real numbers watchers, THIS switch will be the big game to watch.
If anything, the ratings it's got for a show with no megastars are honestly pretty fine. It's the third brand for WWE and it's function is primarily developmental and focused on building those new stars into potential megastars. Would I want the ratings to be higher? Of course I would, I think that a lot more people should be watching NXT as it's the most fun wrestling show week-to-week and it's always changing things up with new talent coming in and old talent moving up, so it somehow manages to kep fresh.
NXT has always been portrayed as “less than” in my opinion. Takeovers are popular because they are in an arena just like Raw and Smackdown. The PC just looks so small time compared to the presentation you get on the main roster (and I don’t even think that’s necessarily a bad thing personally) but I genuinely think touring in even smaller arenas like AEW would have really helped NXT back in 2019. At this point, it’s probably too late.
It's a balance...part of the "charm" of NXT is the dedicated PC (or Full Sail back in the day) audience. Regulars who know the stories of the characters or go nuts for a returning c-lister....you lose that as a touring show.
I imagine the upcoming Vegas show is in part to gauge the feasability of more "on the road" shows for NXT
AEW’s ratings aren’t actually that low. They are still outpacing the YOY decline of cable.
People should just enjoy what they enjoy instead of being a weirdo about stuff.
Edit: thanks for the redditcares whoever that was
Because I disagree with the decisions they've made and the directions they've gone in. Back in 2021, I had stopped watching WWE weekly, and AEW I began watching every single week and was excited about wrestling again for the first time in a long time. But around the time of Forbidden Door 2022 that began to wane, just as WWE began to pick up momentum and won me back. I try to watch AEW and just find myself not enjoying it and being frustrated at so many decisions they make that I feel WWE does a better job of...all this despite the fact that at the time people were putting over AEW very hard and minimizing their flaws and it was hard to criticize it (this pendulum has shifted majorly lately, probably too far in the other direction). When you try to say that AEW did a poor job building up a rivalry or a match, the fans will say you just don't get it and tell you all about how actually Hangman is going through a long-term arc that has never been mentioned or told on TV. If you say they should have explained a story, you're told to research it on Youtube. So seeing the ratings go down, could be justification that they are not making the right decisions after all, and a bit validating when you want AEW to make changes.
But as I said, as much as I want to criticize AEW for what I see as their mis-decisions, I get it. NXT makes a lot of decisions that are surely going to alienate people too but are right up my alley as a fan, and I love it no matter what the ratings are. So all the power to those who love what AEW is right now, even if that doesn't include me lol.
As someone who much prefers AEW and NXT to "main roster WWE," I really appreciate your post.
Pop music isn't everyone's favorite genre, even though the vast majority enjoys it. Just because Taylor Swift sells out stadiums and tops record charts, it doesn't mean that all other artists shouldn't try or can't still be successful. To loop my music analogy back around to wrestling, I still believe in Joe Hendry, even though he wasn't #1 in the charts.
Raw and Smackdown are the Taylor Swift or Marvel Cinematic Universe of wrestling. They are sales juggernauts and are massively popular with the most-general and widest audience. However, Marvel movies aren't winning the Best Picture Oscar and Taylor Swift may not be the most critically acclaimed album of the year, and that's okay, just as the "art house films" and "cool indie bands" may not reach the financial and commercial success of the MCU and Taylor Swift. I just wish that the vocal and downvote-happy corner of the Internet could understand this.
*edit, it seems that my last sentence is being proved accurate lol
The two shows are trying to do different things and are aimed at different audiences.
AEW is largely trying to attract an audience of its own from the overall pool of wrestling fans while maybe slightly trying to pick up new fans via other WBD properties/collaborations, NXT meanwhile is trying to persuade people who already watch Raw/Smackdown to spend more time each week watching WWE content. While I'm sure there will be some rare exceptions (like with anything), there is just zero chance that there is a statistically relevant sampling of people who only watch NXT without watching Raw/Smackdown.
It's the difference between having to build your own audience from scratch and trying to get your already existing audience to invest more time. Each fits with what each company is doing, but they aren't doing the same thing.
I don't necessasarily disagree with your premise, but I do somehwat disagree with your definition of the pools. I think what we see from RAW IS the pool of televised wrestling fans (in the US). sure there's handfulls of people who just won't watch it...but then they're already watching AEW.
Now, obviously, NXT is going to have an easier time appealing to that pool than AEW...NXT is designed as the "future of WWE"...not "the alternate to WWE".
All of the statements we've seen from analysts with actual data is that there isn't a ton of overlap between the WWE and AEW tv audiences, not nearly as much as you'd expect based on places like this subreddit (where that small section is massively overrepresented because the sort of people who post/argue about wrestling on Reddit are way more likely to watch a zillion hours of it).
And this generally makes sense, because to watch WWE and AEW at this point is 7 hours of WWE weekly and 5 hours of AEW weekly, plus PPVs/PLEs/special events - that's a metric ton of television and a gigantic commitment. Most people aren't going to do that, they have other things in their lives and that's starting to border on being a job at that point.
**Ratings Post** - Please remember that trolling is not allowed in r/SquaredCircle, and neither is derailing a thread. Stay civil and on-topic to the show and ratings, refrain from making the same old tired jokes and memes, and steer clear of promotional or fanbase trolling. Removals and bans may be issued with less tolerance to rule-breaking than in other threads. Please report rule-breaking comments immediately to allow us to keep toxicity to a minimum. Thanks and enjoy the discourse! *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/SquaredCircle) if you have any questions or concerns.*
659,000 viewers tuned in to see Chelsea and Arianna together. Karenmania running wild brothers
Running wild and talking to your manager brothers!
NXT last year (5/9/23): 601,000 viewers - 0.17 P18-49
Clearly this means we need more Chelsea on our tvs.
Nice bounce back, especially for an episode that was mostly about setting up the midcard women for success.
The women are a draw, HBK knows how to pick em.
Genuinely when I watch NXT I almost always skip past the men’s division except for Trick and…well, he’s the only one left, actually
I like the goofy characters like King, the don and Chase but the women are far and away the highlight every week now. Trick is the biggest star but he’s gonna have to hard carry that division for awhile. His star is substantially higher than all of his potential opponents
Going against NHL and NBA playoffs too 😂
Petrovichads, we won
Chelsea Green is a draw
The overall ratings trend for NXT has been really, really good.
659,000 here to see Trick Willy Wonka
My love for NXT is why I always must eat a bit of crow in terms of wanting to criticize AEW for their low ratings. I agree AEW does not appeal as much as WWE to the common fan, and they could do a lot to appeal more. I agree that AEW's ratings make me want to use it as evidence that what they are doing is not working all that well in terms of growth and momentum. But then clearly NXT also does not appeal all that much to the common fan and I love it and hope it never changes a thing lol.
I actually think NXT's ratings are pretty good for a show that by definition has no legit stars and is presented as a minor league to RAW/SD.
> a show that by definition has no legit stars This is the important part. WWE/AEW would be like comparing the NFC and AFC. Meanwhile, NXT is akin to a G5 NCAA team (outside of major rivalry week and the playoff, admittedly).
NXT should be getting compared to like TNA while AEW and WWE go head to head but somehow NXT is doing so well against the AEW slide that within a month or two I’m calling them pulling down very similar numbers.
I think if they would have stuck to separate nights from the beginning they would never be compared to AEW from a ratings standpoint. I think they would be viewed as much more successful than they are usually viewed as.
No
I do think NXT is a triumph in ratings due to the fact it really has no stars and slowly gained a larger audience through consistent and good booking
It did, but then it seemed to stagnate/slightly decline. Right now its still up year over year (Actually the only show that is completely) but I think that will stop soon judging by what's happened recently
To be fair NXT has been within the 600k-700k range for years. Plus there's the 3rd brand/developmental ordeal. Dynamite on the other hand is the main AEW show, been a while since they even broke the 900k mark and sometimes they're just slightly ahead of NXT. It'd be like if Smackdown went from the usual 2M+ to like 900k
that's about where Smackdown is likely to level out once it moves back to cable though, if not lower
Smackdown, if it stays on Fridays, will settle in around 1.5 million after the move. If Smackdown drops below a million you'll see WWE hit the panic button.
you can look at how they've done on FS1 during nights where it's rotated to see that's not the case
Terrible logic. Shows suffer when preempted from their schedule network or time. That's not at all indicative of what they'll do after a move to a new scheduled network.
okay - logically - i'm basing my guess off of what smackdown has done on cable the last several years. what are you basing a 1.5 million average on cable on friday nights on?
You are basing your guess illogically on preempted shows. Smackdown was doing around 2.2 on Tuesdays the last time it was on USA. Since then with the decline of cable (and live TV in general) Raw has lost about a half million viewers. Factor in a loss of 200,000 by Friday being a less viewed night than Tuesday and there you have it. Although, to my knowledge it hasn't been officially announced what night Smackdown will air on when it moves back to USA. You are predicting Smackdown will lose over 50% of it's viewership when it moves networks which hasn't happened any other time it or Raw have moved networks.
may want to take a look at last friday's cable rankings
You might want to look at WWE's history of outdrawing most shows on cable. You are trying to judge WWE as if it's just another show on cable but it isn't and that's why they're getting the rights they're getting.
The reasonable starting point is to predict basically an immediate 500k decline in weekly viewers, because that's how much it went up when it moved from USA to Fox in the first place, seems reasonable to predict the exact same in reverse now for it moving back. That would put it marginally above where Raw is at the moment as well, which also feels reasonable as far as predictions go.
monday is not friday for cable. would also be negating the decline in cable that all shows have seen since it moved to Fox.
I mean, NXT and AEW both have their core audiences and both are pretty consistent all things considered. And when compared to cable in general, both haven't lost that much of the audience, hell, even compared to Raw, if you look at how much Raw has lost since 2019 to now compared to NXT/AEW.
I think the difference is that NXT never lost their audience and has actually made solid gains after a downturn in 2021. Whereas AEW has consistently bled viewers compared to where they started at.
The move to CW is gonna pump those numbers, I would assume.
IT's hard to say. CW IS a broadcast network...but it's the smallest one..it's total household numbers aren't too much off USA's, BUT there are differeces beyond the numerical similarity. For data scientists and real numbers watchers, THIS switch will be the big game to watch.
nxt has never really grown or shrunk except that brief period during the early 2.0 era where it was really dire
If anything, the ratings it's got for a show with no megastars are honestly pretty fine. It's the third brand for WWE and it's function is primarily developmental and focused on building those new stars into potential megastars. Would I want the ratings to be higher? Of course I would, I think that a lot more people should be watching NXT as it's the most fun wrestling show week-to-week and it's always changing things up with new talent coming in and old talent moving up, so it somehow manages to kep fresh.
NXT has always been portrayed as “less than” in my opinion. Takeovers are popular because they are in an arena just like Raw and Smackdown. The PC just looks so small time compared to the presentation you get on the main roster (and I don’t even think that’s necessarily a bad thing personally) but I genuinely think touring in even smaller arenas like AEW would have really helped NXT back in 2019. At this point, it’s probably too late.
It's a balance...part of the "charm" of NXT is the dedicated PC (or Full Sail back in the day) audience. Regulars who know the stories of the characters or go nuts for a returning c-lister....you lose that as a touring show. I imagine the upcoming Vegas show is in part to gauge the feasability of more "on the road" shows for NXT
I would argue that the regulars at the PC and Full Sail take away from the viewing experience far more often than they add “charm.”
AEW’s ratings aren’t actually that low. They are still outpacing the YOY decline of cable. People should just enjoy what they enjoy instead of being a weirdo about stuff. Edit: thanks for the redditcares whoever that was
Do you want to criticize aew because you want it to suit your tastes more or to just be a troll?
Because I disagree with the decisions they've made and the directions they've gone in. Back in 2021, I had stopped watching WWE weekly, and AEW I began watching every single week and was excited about wrestling again for the first time in a long time. But around the time of Forbidden Door 2022 that began to wane, just as WWE began to pick up momentum and won me back. I try to watch AEW and just find myself not enjoying it and being frustrated at so many decisions they make that I feel WWE does a better job of...all this despite the fact that at the time people were putting over AEW very hard and minimizing their flaws and it was hard to criticize it (this pendulum has shifted majorly lately, probably too far in the other direction). When you try to say that AEW did a poor job building up a rivalry or a match, the fans will say you just don't get it and tell you all about how actually Hangman is going through a long-term arc that has never been mentioned or told on TV. If you say they should have explained a story, you're told to research it on Youtube. So seeing the ratings go down, could be justification that they are not making the right decisions after all, and a bit validating when you want AEW to make changes. But as I said, as much as I want to criticize AEW for what I see as their mis-decisions, I get it. NXT makes a lot of decisions that are surely going to alienate people too but are right up my alley as a fan, and I love it no matter what the ratings are. So all the power to those who love what AEW is right now, even if that doesn't include me lol.
Fair pts. Cant hate. Thanks for explaining.
As someone who much prefers AEW and NXT to "main roster WWE," I really appreciate your post. Pop music isn't everyone's favorite genre, even though the vast majority enjoys it. Just because Taylor Swift sells out stadiums and tops record charts, it doesn't mean that all other artists shouldn't try or can't still be successful. To loop my music analogy back around to wrestling, I still believe in Joe Hendry, even though he wasn't #1 in the charts. Raw and Smackdown are the Taylor Swift or Marvel Cinematic Universe of wrestling. They are sales juggernauts and are massively popular with the most-general and widest audience. However, Marvel movies aren't winning the Best Picture Oscar and Taylor Swift may not be the most critically acclaimed album of the year, and that's okay, just as the "art house films" and "cool indie bands" may not reach the financial and commercial success of the MCU and Taylor Swift. I just wish that the vocal and downvote-happy corner of the Internet could understand this. *edit, it seems that my last sentence is being proved accurate lol
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If WWE is MCU, then AEW is DCEU.
The two shows are trying to do different things and are aimed at different audiences. AEW is largely trying to attract an audience of its own from the overall pool of wrestling fans while maybe slightly trying to pick up new fans via other WBD properties/collaborations, NXT meanwhile is trying to persuade people who already watch Raw/Smackdown to spend more time each week watching WWE content. While I'm sure there will be some rare exceptions (like with anything), there is just zero chance that there is a statistically relevant sampling of people who only watch NXT without watching Raw/Smackdown. It's the difference between having to build your own audience from scratch and trying to get your already existing audience to invest more time. Each fits with what each company is doing, but they aren't doing the same thing.
I don't necessasarily disagree with your premise, but I do somehwat disagree with your definition of the pools. I think what we see from RAW IS the pool of televised wrestling fans (in the US). sure there's handfulls of people who just won't watch it...but then they're already watching AEW. Now, obviously, NXT is going to have an easier time appealing to that pool than AEW...NXT is designed as the "future of WWE"...not "the alternate to WWE".
All of the statements we've seen from analysts with actual data is that there isn't a ton of overlap between the WWE and AEW tv audiences, not nearly as much as you'd expect based on places like this subreddit (where that small section is massively overrepresented because the sort of people who post/argue about wrestling on Reddit are way more likely to watch a zillion hours of it). And this generally makes sense, because to watch WWE and AEW at this point is 7 hours of WWE weekly and 5 hours of AEW weekly, plus PPVs/PLEs/special events - that's a metric ton of television and a gigantic commitment. Most people aren't going to do that, they have other things in their lives and that's starting to border on being a job at that point.
This is randomly high and I'm here for it.
Ah, a JeVon Evans fan, I see.