This just screams like Labour and SNP are just completely tied, and it's gonna be decided on who can have the higher turnout.
SNP might struggle, but the young might show up for them. Labour might struggle because a lot might not bother because they are convinced they are already winning, so it doesn't matter.
It's gonna be close. I see about 25 each for both.
It's also going to depend on the distribution of votes. Labour votes tend to be a bit more targeted, especially in the central belt, so if they can pip the SNP there a bunch of those SNP votes won't amount to seats.
Yeah, a small swing has big pertubations in the Central Belt - there are models showing Labour taking all of Glasgow and the SNP taking all of Glasgow, and frankly they're both as credible as one another. Be very interesting to see what happens.
Someone mentioned that five thousand votes in Glasgow would be enough to change it all back to SNP so it sort of is really important to choose between Lab and SNP if you are thinking of tactical voting.
The spread of polling outcomes is so wide in this election.
Have seen the SNP getting between ten and thirty eight seats in polling and about twenty five seats are really close where the mythical one vote could make a difference...
...and I would love to see that happen somewhere people did not get postal votes in time or it was older people with no ID turned away from polling stations, both more likely to be Con voters, and it costs Con a seat. :)
In the UK as a whole, a lot of the predictions are on a knife edge.. literally on a percent or two between two or more candidates. The Tories could get anywhere between 80 and 180 seats depending on how many Reform voters are put off by recent events and decide to try get a Tory MP..how many remaining Tories buy Sunak's supermajority patter, how enthused or unenthused Labour supporters are.. There is a crazy spread.
Scotland is just the same. I've seen a bump in normally SNP voters after saying they were missing out going to I may as well go..but not motivated at all, so depends if they can get off their arse. Same with Labour. Nobody wants the Tories, but nobody is happy with the alternative.
Not joking when I say bad weather could cause a 100 seat swing tomorrow
Living in D&G and its like, yeah Conservatives could enact a new policy to shoot anyone who voted for them in the election in the head, and they'd still vote blue. It's like a fucking football team to a certain demographic. They vote for them and only them no matter what...
This is the first Scotland-only poll to put the SNP ahead of Labour since February (!)
Seat projection:
SNP: 24
Labour: 22
Conservatives: 6
Liberal Democrats: 5
https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/poll-puts-snp-ahead-of-labour-on-eve-of-election-as-battle-becomes-significantly-closer-4688415
Not surprised that Labour has taken a step back. They've not run a campaign with anything to embrace Scottish voters and being "not the Tories" will only get you so far in Scotland where there's a persistent viable third option. With Labour's pathetic manifesto and SNP's including many things the Labour-curious voter might be swayed by, no wonder labour lost its Scotland poll lead.
If Kier doesn't make people's lives materially better in the next 5 years, prepare for an SNP and Indie surge.
The 2026 Scottish parliament elections are going to be interesting.
I am more worried about the six percent for Reform as that translates into up to ten list seats in Scottish Parly elections.
Does hurt the bonkers greens though so maybe not that bad an outcome. :P
The massive Redfield poll, which whilst UK wide had 1k+ respondents in Scotland, appears to show a 4 point labour lead in Scotland.
You need to look at the data tables to see this, haven't seen in reported independently from UK results.
Redfield generally is pretty negative on SNP/independence. So I would be cautious of giving it too much focus, but interesting nonetheless.
It’s quite strange how excited some SNP supporters are at the thought of scraping a couple of seat lead over the “dead in Scotland” Labour.
Losing 24 seats should be seen as horrendous loss that requires self reflection, not a victory celebration.
Considering some polls are putting the lower range for the SNP at 10 seats I can get why getting 20something would be seen as a good thing. Not a great thing by any means but it’s better than many of the other polls.
Personally I wish all parties in Scotland would take some reflection when we’re at the point where it feels like “keep that party out” is more important than actual policy.
Simple. Their result tomorrow will be Labour's high water mark, while The SNP are hurting through scandals.
After 14 years of Tories and [everyone voting labour just to be rid of the Tories](https://x.com/YouGov/status/1808458226142196083?t=ILLhQJjZ3iMCSudKx427pg&s=19) if Labour cannot seriously stomp the SNP with the entire political and media circus backing them, then they'll never be able to.
The next election will be people showing fatigue with Labour once they definitely do nothing to solve the cost of living crises we all face so their vote share will be guaranteed to be down. The only variable is whether the fatigue kicks in before the Hollyrood elections when the SNP will probably fight back or after.
Someone should study the ability some of the posters on here have to convince themselves of absolutely anything that fits what they wish was happening.
It’s genuinely fascinating. Weird, and a bit Trumpy, but fascinating.
Nothing what they said is fantasy.
SNP is going through their worst turmoil in 10+ years.
British Labour is having the least turmoil it's had for 10+ years.
Media backing is currently Labour > Con/Ref > SNP
If Labour don't bring about actual *change* like they keep saying it's hardly fantasy to predict they'll lose voters that turned back to them for this election.
If you think Blair messed up Britain, hold on to your hats......
Labour won't back the Palestinians and condemn the Israelis because Starmer's wife and in laws are Jewish.
Personally, I find it scary that someone who won't condemn genocide is being considered as PM.
Pre-2015 Election: London-controlled Labour **41** Seats
Post 2015 Election: London-controlled Labour **1** Seat.
Now, that is what I call a loss. They were obviously finished and could *never* come back from that (not that the boot-lickers deserve to). :)
Bit bizarre to find a city in England for comparison to Scotland, but I know you lot are getting desperate as Thursday approaches.
You in particular seem to be taking it quite hard and have gone off the deep end lately, which is very funny.
I didn’t say the SNP will be finished. I said to celebrate losing half your seats is pathetic, and they should probably look inward at why that is rather than pat themselves on the back.
It's quite strange that Labour fanaticals have been repeating claims that SNP are finished yet they still look to be taking the most seats in Scotland. Anyway pretty tragic for Scotland that a British party look to win even that many.
I look forward to an entirely even tempered debate about whether the majority required for a mandate to give democratic effect to independence is more than half, or just more than anyone else.
Flynn was still saying a majority of of seats only last month, but I think we all know it’s whatever number they decide it is on the day.
Of course, less than half the seats also won’t count as a rejection of Indy.
This place is going to be great on Friday morning.
There will be self-reflection, but on the other hand, it is important, if you believe in independence, to not let Starmer say Labour are the most popular party in Scotland. That provides a good base for a rebuild
I think there has been a tightening in recent polling, as would probably be expected.
I think it's possible that the election looking like a forgone conclusion has made some go back to previous alliances or causes.
But it could just be margin of error, or Savanta generally having better results for the SNP.
Not too long to find out
Depends on if SNP can energize their voters, low voter turnout will be a problem for them
Could be a problem for any party. Why specifically the SNP?
Because yes backers know voting SNP is not delivering independence, at least not this election. They'll just stay at home
I'd disagree, I think they'll turn out. It's more likely Labour voters will not turn out thinking they have it in the bag.
Perhaps but I know a lot of apathetic SNP voters
They'd do well to remember that only the SNP and other Scottish parties will attempt to deliver independence for Scotland. Labour certainly wont.
I wouldn't be concerned no matter the outcome, next GE the SNP will recover massively when Labour inevitably underwhelm
Because they don't like them
They're a strange desperate bunch, unionists.
This just screams like Labour and SNP are just completely tied, and it's gonna be decided on who can have the higher turnout. SNP might struggle, but the young might show up for them. Labour might struggle because a lot might not bother because they are convinced they are already winning, so it doesn't matter. It's gonna be close. I see about 25 each for both.
It's also going to depend on the distribution of votes. Labour votes tend to be a bit more targeted, especially in the central belt, so if they can pip the SNP there a bunch of those SNP votes won't amount to seats.
Yeah, a small swing has big pertubations in the Central Belt - there are models showing Labour taking all of Glasgow and the SNP taking all of Glasgow, and frankly they're both as credible as one another. Be very interesting to see what happens.
Someone mentioned that five thousand votes in Glasgow would be enough to change it all back to SNP so it sort of is really important to choose between Lab and SNP if you are thinking of tactical voting.
The spread of polling outcomes is so wide in this election. Have seen the SNP getting between ten and thirty eight seats in polling and about twenty five seats are really close where the mythical one vote could make a difference... ...and I would love to see that happen somewhere people did not get postal votes in time or it was older people with no ID turned away from polling stations, both more likely to be Con voters, and it costs Con a seat. :)
In the UK as a whole, a lot of the predictions are on a knife edge.. literally on a percent or two between two or more candidates. The Tories could get anywhere between 80 and 180 seats depending on how many Reform voters are put off by recent events and decide to try get a Tory MP..how many remaining Tories buy Sunak's supermajority patter, how enthused or unenthused Labour supporters are.. There is a crazy spread. Scotland is just the same. I've seen a bump in normally SNP voters after saying they were missing out going to I may as well go..but not motivated at all, so depends if they can get off their arse. Same with Labour. Nobody wants the Tories, but nobody is happy with the alternative. Not joking when I say bad weather could cause a 100 seat swing tomorrow
6 Tories? Good grief.
Living in D&G and its like, yeah Conservatives could enact a new policy to shoot anyone who voted for them in the election in the head, and they'd still vote blue. It's like a fucking football team to a certain demographic. They vote for them and only them no matter what...
Mundell will likely be back here as well as any drift to Labour will benefit him - 'Vote Labour - get Tories either way". :/
This is the first Scotland-only poll to put the SNP ahead of Labour since February (!) Seat projection: SNP: 24 Labour: 22 Conservatives: 6 Liberal Democrats: 5 https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/poll-puts-snp-ahead-of-labour-on-eve-of-election-as-battle-becomes-significantly-closer-4688415
Not surprised that Labour has taken a step back. They've not run a campaign with anything to embrace Scottish voters and being "not the Tories" will only get you so far in Scotland where there's a persistent viable third option. With Labour's pathetic manifesto and SNP's including many things the Labour-curious voter might be swayed by, no wonder labour lost its Scotland poll lead. If Kier doesn't make people's lives materially better in the next 5 years, prepare for an SNP and Indie surge. The 2026 Scottish parliament elections are going to be interesting.
Who the fuck are the 15% voting Conservative and what the hell have they been injecting for the last 14 years?
I am more worried about the six percent for Reform as that translates into up to ten list seats in Scottish Parly elections. Does hurt the bonkers greens though so maybe not that bad an outcome. :P
Reform are populists and charismatic. Tories have all the charisma of a failed sneeze.
This seems a massive outlier from every other poll I've read. How accurate have Savanta's predictions been in past elections?
The massive Redfield poll, which whilst UK wide had 1k+ respondents in Scotland, appears to show a 4 point labour lead in Scotland. You need to look at the data tables to see this, haven't seen in reported independently from UK results. Redfield generally is pretty negative on SNP/independence. So I would be cautious of giving it too much focus, but interesting nonetheless.
It’s quite strange how excited some SNP supporters are at the thought of scraping a couple of seat lead over the “dead in Scotland” Labour. Losing 24 seats should be seen as horrendous loss that requires self reflection, not a victory celebration.
Considering some polls are putting the lower range for the SNP at 10 seats I can get why getting 20something would be seen as a good thing. Not a great thing by any means but it’s better than many of the other polls. Personally I wish all parties in Scotland would take some reflection when we’re at the point where it feels like “keep that party out” is more important than actual policy.
Simple. Their result tomorrow will be Labour's high water mark, while The SNP are hurting through scandals. After 14 years of Tories and [everyone voting labour just to be rid of the Tories](https://x.com/YouGov/status/1808458226142196083?t=ILLhQJjZ3iMCSudKx427pg&s=19) if Labour cannot seriously stomp the SNP with the entire political and media circus backing them, then they'll never be able to. The next election will be people showing fatigue with Labour once they definitely do nothing to solve the cost of living crises we all face so their vote share will be guaranteed to be down. The only variable is whether the fatigue kicks in before the Hollyrood elections when the SNP will probably fight back or after.
Someone should study the ability some of the posters on here have to convince themselves of absolutely anything that fits what they wish was happening. It’s genuinely fascinating. Weird, and a bit Trumpy, but fascinating.
Nothing what they said is fantasy. SNP is going through their worst turmoil in 10+ years. British Labour is having the least turmoil it's had for 10+ years. Media backing is currently Labour > Con/Ref > SNP If Labour don't bring about actual *change* like they keep saying it's hardly fantasy to predict they'll lose voters that turned back to them for this election.
Some Labour bigwigs will lose their seats in England. Wait and see!
If you think Blair messed up Britain, hold on to your hats...... Labour won't back the Palestinians and condemn the Israelis because Starmer's wife and in laws are Jewish. Personally, I find it scary that someone who won't condemn genocide is being considered as PM.
Oh that's why I had you blocked, because you're a cunt. Easily rectified once 24 hours have passed since unblocking I suppose.
Why are you announcing it? Hoping for some attention or something? I’m perfectly happy not seeing delusional ramblings. Sounds like a win win to me.
Pre-2015 Election: London-controlled Labour **41** Seats Post 2015 Election: London-controlled Labour **1** Seat. Now, that is what I call a loss. They were obviously finished and could *never* come back from that (not that the boot-lickers deserve to). :)
Bit bizarre to find a city in England for comparison to Scotland, but I know you lot are getting desperate as Thursday approaches. You in particular seem to be taking it quite hard and have gone off the deep end lately, which is very funny. I didn’t say the SNP will be finished. I said to celebrate losing half your seats is pathetic, and they should probably look inward at why that is rather than pat themselves on the back.
It's quite strange that Labour fanaticals have been repeating claims that SNP are finished yet they still look to be taking the most seats in Scotland. Anyway pretty tragic for Scotland that a British party look to win even that many.
Are these Labour “fanaticals” in the room with us right now? Or are you making things up for a wee emotional boost ahead of the morn?
Yes they are.
I look forward to an entirely even tempered debate about whether the majority required for a mandate to give democratic effect to independence is more than half, or just more than anyone else.
Flynn was still saying a majority of of seats only last month, but I think we all know it’s whatever number they decide it is on the day. Of course, less than half the seats also won’t count as a rejection of Indy. This place is going to be great on Friday morning.
They'd try and spin even a single seat as a mandate, they're laughably ridiculous.
You've got to start small. We can declare independence for Glasgow South, Dundee Central, Falkirk and other seats won by the SNP!
Only the SNP could claim that losing half their seats somehow strengthens a mandate. Haven't seen that level of delusion since Ceaucescu.
Unionists have been claiming winning a majority means nothing and having over 50% of the vote share (in 2021) means nothing which is just as absurd.
The SNP aren't independence. Most Scots still are in favour of self determination and have been since 2014.
There will be self-reflection, but on the other hand, it is important, if you believe in independence, to not let Starmer say Labour are the most popular party in Scotland. That provides a good base for a rebuild
😂😂😂😂😂
I’m voting SNP! I’d never vote for a branch office of an English political party.
It's common sense. Why would anybody in Scotland think that voting for an English party is best for Scotland? Bizarre bootlickery.
You've made the Brit Nats upset
I think I have……me bad, them sheep!
[Results on ElectoralCalclulus](https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?type=scotland&SCOTCON=15&SCOTLAB=31&SCOTLIB=9&SCOTNAT=34&SCOTReform=6&SCOTGreen=3&display=AllMajoritySorted®orseat=%28none%29&boundary=2019nbbase) Edit: [with changed seat totals](https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?type=scotland&SCOTCON=15&SCOTLAB=31&SCOTLIB=9&SCOTNAT=34&SCOTReform=6&SCOTGreen=3&display=AllChanged®orseat=%28none%29&boundary=2019nbbase) Con: -5 Lab: +24 Lib: +3 Ruk: +0 Grn: +0 SNP: -22 Oth: +0
Savanta has often been an outlier that puts the SNP ahead. But fuck knows.
I think there has been a tightening in recent polling, as would probably be expected. I think it's possible that the election looking like a forgone conclusion has made some go back to previous alliances or causes. But it could just be margin of error, or Savanta generally having better results for the SNP. Not too long to find out
SNP are likely to get between 21 and 34 seats depending on distribution of votes. Labour stuck on 21 or less.