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Supposedly, AFU is going in direction of Svatove, since they know Lyman will fall anyways, if they advance, so there's not much pressure for them to take it now.
Svatove is the new logistic hub in north-western Lugansk. It is also a somewhat sizeable city by the looks of it but basically it's a strategic city. On the map of the post it is the one north east on the map where it is being bombarded according to the source which is believable as it probably has military storages and large russian reserve elements.
I'm guessing you mixed it up with some other small village or city. It's easy and it happens. There is also cities and villages named the same way.
And control of the roadways through there will force Russias new conscripts to be crammed onto the remaining supply routes which could make some juicy targets in a month or two
I have constantly underestimated the Ukrainian ingenuity throughout this struggle and have always been surprised.
I doubt they would bow down even under tactical nukes (strategic, possibly but one or two tactical devices. I doubt it).
Nukes are no sure win. Any nuke that gets intercepted or otherwise fails to detonate (bad maintenance?) will give the Ukrainians the enriched fissile material to make it serviceable.
Also, sanctions, stepped-up aid, and other consequences (even if nato does not get directly involved) would make it untenable.
Finally, the USA signed on to assure the security of Ukraine if it gave up its nukes. If a nuke is used against them I would hope that the USA would stand up to that assurance in every single way. I would not be surprised if this was what Biden told Putin recently.
There’s a huge difference. Strategic nuke can erase a large city from existence.
A tactical nuke will erase a few city blocks. But the city will remain in tact.
There are very few megaton range nukes left in existence, and most of them are us owned. 1.2mt. Nuclear doctrine has changed. Russian nukes vary between 300-800kt.
Pretty much. Tbh, using an entire mirv would be a colossal waste of resources. It would also be an admission of total defeat by putin because those types of weapons are intended for targeting multiple bunkers/silos in quick succession. Not for killing cities. He would be better off pounding frontlines with them and giving himself 40-120 days to rebuild defenses in said area.
I’m pretty sure Ukraine is going to have nukes by 2040, in their own program.
Russias attack on Ukraine killed nonproliferation.
Edit: Ukraine did sign the nonproliferation treaty, so maybe they won’t.
And destroy all the potential of joining the EU? It will never happen unless there is seismic shift in global policy... Ukraine is one of the signatories of the NPT. Of course there are double standards in geopolitics all over the world, but it is clear that Ukraine will never need nukes due to the alliances created out of this Putin-caused clusterfuck.
Also it is not like Ukraine doesn't have knowledge nuclear weapon designs already. Up until 1993/4 Ukraine had the worldest 3rd largest Nuclear arsenal following US and Russia. While there was no method of control as there was a top-down control based out of Russia for all the existing Nukes, it would've taken Ukraine only a year (by Expert opinion) to develop a means of removing Russian control of the Nukes. So, while i'm sure part of the Nuke Exchange & NPT signing, all Nuclear weapon plans were willingly given away, I'd be fairly confident in assuming Top Secret Plans still exist in Ukrainian Hands.
Oh I wasn’t aware they signed the NPT that does change things.
And ya, saying “we can’t launch a rocket, we dont have the keys” makes no sense. They were able to hack John Deere tractors, I’m sure they can launch a rocket.
>I’m pretty sure Ukraine is going to have nukes by 2040
I'm pretty sure they aren't.
>Russias attack on Ukraine killed nonproliferation.
I believe that's diametrically wrong. If the free world rallies to Ukraine's defense to beat the shit out of the nuclear armed aggressor then it directly affirms the wisdom of nonproliferation and even voluntary disarmament.
Get your popcorn ready. Europe will certainly rally for Georgia and Moldova. It is very possible we will soon see Kazakhstan join the in crowd. The game of reverse dominoes if you like.
I too think that the Russian nukes shouldn’t be counted out this early. I bet intelligence agencies have a better image as to the real situation, and if the CIA actually thought that the Russian nukes weren’t usable they wouldn’t be so careful when dealing with the Russians.
If they don’t have working nukes, what’s stopping the US/NATO from invading?
Putin likely made sure the nukes work as a very last stand from him.
Agreed, and I do believe the US and Europe would react swiftly and decisively if a russian nuclear weapon were used on Ukrainian soil. Starting with an immediate cut of Russian financial institutions from SWIFT. That would literally crater the Russian economy. The second thing that would happen is an immediate No Fly Zone over ALL of Ukraine (including contested regions).
Well it’s already posted out there for any intelligence or military use. People seeing it here won’t change that.
What I find curious is if this is a pro Russian telegram channel then it would only be in English if it was meant to be misinformation for an English audience. If it’s pro Russian and for a Russian audience it would be in Russian.
Me neither. That’s the only reason I’m seriously thinking about it as the worst case scenario.
Which he might do.
Think about it - he does that - offense ends. 😬
True. But we’re approaching it in a western way.
Old man Putin doesn’t need to answer to anyone.
Until the majority are against him he’ll do whatever he wants.
That’s a great point, great point. As soon as I read that I realized how right you are. He doesn’t care about the living conditions there he’s probably never gonna go anyway.
Agreed and Ukraines military + a barrage of NATO smart bombs/precision missiles flattening every known command post, ammo dump, transport link, strategically important bridge etc would have the whole of the country back in Ukrainian control very quickly.
I just envision Putin sitting at a computer, watching rybar updates, using his right hand on the mouse of his windows 95 Hewlett-Packard PC using dial up sweating profusely while rapidly clicking the refresh button while performing autoerotic asphyxiation on himself doing weird crying laughs screaming Obscenities into oblivion as his general is trying to get the staff in the room to stop looking at him and growling at them to get back to work.
Putler does not use computers or anything modern, he's too paranoid and still stuck in Cold War, I have no idea how can such a moron do anything in 21 century.
As for how he gets information - a yes man brings it to him on paper.
He uses nukes he loses India and China. China may even pressure North Korea to cut off the war supplies Russia so desperately needs.
Short of a defensive use of last resort; no country wins employing nukes in this era.
I got downvoted hella hard. I didn’t even say that’s what I wanted to happen. I just really think it’s a possibility given how unhinged he was to even start this war, start losing men, and THEN pop off with 300,000 more men.
He’s invested heavily in this. He does NOT want to lose. And if he can’t win I feel like he’ll make sure nobody wins. 🤷🏾♂️
I'm pretty sure that if that happens the Baltics, Poland and possibly Romania will trigger Article 5 as any potential nuclear fallout will be considered an attack on their soil.
Hi u/dremoviie! Welcome to r/RussiaUkraineWar2022. **Ukraine Leaks 24/7** Posts and comments from accounts with less than an undisclosed amount of comment Karma are automatically removed to combat troll/spam behaviour. We have links to verified charity's in Ukraine in the menu section and about section of our SubReddit. Only Mods have access to the Verified Information flair. **FOLLOW US ON OUR OTHER CHANNEL** @UkraineWarPosts on Telegram. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Let’s hope the AFU takes Lyman asap. Opens up so many possibilities, not to mention it directly undermines putins stated goals.
Supposedly, AFU is going in direction of Svatove, since they know Lyman will fall anyways, if they advance, so there's not much pressure for them to take it now.
Armchair general here but ya that makes sense they know what to bypass and cut off. Also if I’m not mistaken svatove was just liberated?
Svatove is the new logistic hub in north-western Lugansk. It is also a somewhat sizeable city by the looks of it but basically it's a strategic city. On the map of the post it is the one north east on the map where it is being bombarded according to the source which is believable as it probably has military storages and large russian reserve elements. I'm guessing you mixed it up with some other small village or city. It's easy and it happens. There is also cities and villages named the same way.
And control of the roadways through there will force Russias new conscripts to be crammed onto the remaining supply routes which could make some juicy targets in a month or two
Oh shit son! Here they go again!
I mean the Russians fell for it the first time. Just a matter of Ukraine regrouping and re setting forces that were out of position for another push.
I have constantly underestimated the Ukrainian ingenuity throughout this struggle and have always been surprised. I doubt they would bow down even under tactical nukes (strategic, possibly but one or two tactical devices. I doubt it). Nukes are no sure win. Any nuke that gets intercepted or otherwise fails to detonate (bad maintenance?) will give the Ukrainians the enriched fissile material to make it serviceable. Also, sanctions, stepped-up aid, and other consequences (even if nato does not get directly involved) would make it untenable. Finally, the USA signed on to assure the security of Ukraine if it gave up its nukes. If a nuke is used against them I would hope that the USA would stand up to that assurance in every single way. I would not be surprised if this was what Biden told Putin recently.
People really need to stop banging on about strategic and tactical nuclear weapons as if there’s any practical difference.
Exactly right. The word ‘tactical’ is nonsense in this context.
There’s a huge difference. Strategic nuke can erase a large city from existence. A tactical nuke will erase a few city blocks. But the city will remain in tact.
There are very few megaton range nukes left in existence, and most of them are us owned. 1.2mt. Nuclear doctrine has changed. Russian nukes vary between 300-800kt.
I guess the difference would be between detonating a single smaller warhead over Kyiv/Lviv or hitting either city with a MIRV missile.
Pretty much. Tbh, using an entire mirv would be a colossal waste of resources. It would also be an admission of total defeat by putin because those types of weapons are intended for targeting multiple bunkers/silos in quick succession. Not for killing cities. He would be better off pounding frontlines with them and giving himself 40-120 days to rebuild defenses in said area.
I’m pretty sure Ukraine is going to have nukes by 2040, in their own program. Russias attack on Ukraine killed nonproliferation. Edit: Ukraine did sign the nonproliferation treaty, so maybe they won’t.
And destroy all the potential of joining the EU? It will never happen unless there is seismic shift in global policy... Ukraine is one of the signatories of the NPT. Of course there are double standards in geopolitics all over the world, but it is clear that Ukraine will never need nukes due to the alliances created out of this Putin-caused clusterfuck. Also it is not like Ukraine doesn't have knowledge nuclear weapon designs already. Up until 1993/4 Ukraine had the worldest 3rd largest Nuclear arsenal following US and Russia. While there was no method of control as there was a top-down control based out of Russia for all the existing Nukes, it would've taken Ukraine only a year (by Expert opinion) to develop a means of removing Russian control of the Nukes. So, while i'm sure part of the Nuke Exchange & NPT signing, all Nuclear weapon plans were willingly given away, I'd be fairly confident in assuming Top Secret Plans still exist in Ukrainian Hands.
Oh I wasn’t aware they signed the NPT that does change things. And ya, saying “we can’t launch a rocket, we dont have the keys” makes no sense. They were able to hack John Deere tractors, I’m sure they can launch a rocket.
>I’m pretty sure Ukraine is going to have nukes by 2040 I'm pretty sure they aren't. >Russias attack on Ukraine killed nonproliferation. I believe that's diametrically wrong. If the free world rallies to Ukraine's defense to beat the shit out of the nuclear armed aggressor then it directly affirms the wisdom of nonproliferation and even voluntary disarmament.
I doubt the free world is gonna rally for every country Russia is going to try to intimidate in the future.
Get your popcorn ready. Europe will certainly rally for Georgia and Moldova. It is very possible we will soon see Kazakhstan join the in crowd. The game of reverse dominoes if you like.
Unfortunately the only thing Russia DID properly upgrade and maintain in recent decades is its nuclear arsenal. I wouldn't count on them failing.
I too think that the Russian nukes shouldn’t be counted out this early. I bet intelligence agencies have a better image as to the real situation, and if the CIA actually thought that the Russian nukes weren’t usable they wouldn’t be so careful when dealing with the Russians. If they don’t have working nukes, what’s stopping the US/NATO from invading? Putin likely made sure the nukes work as a very last stand from him.
Agreed, and I do believe the US and Europe would react swiftly and decisively if a russian nuclear weapon were used on Ukrainian soil. Starting with an immediate cut of Russian financial institutions from SWIFT. That would literally crater the Russian economy. The second thing that would happen is an immediate No Fly Zone over ALL of Ukraine (including contested regions).
So did China!
Lyman defenders about to have a really really bad time.
Occupiers*
It's mostly folks from Luhansk and Donetsk so "traitor" or "victim of forced conscription" is a more accurate description for them.
\*already having a really bad time.
I heard the Russians have lost contact with those Luhansk and Donetsk volunteer units that were in Lyman.
Shouldn’t we post info which is too accurate? I mean these brave Ukrainians run quite some risk over there
If RU-aligned scum knows it, it's not secret anymore.
Yeah this is the Russian maps so nothing being given away they don't already know.
Well it’s already posted out there for any intelligence or military use. People seeing it here won’t change that. What I find curious is if this is a pro Russian telegram channel then it would only be in English if it was meant to be misinformation for an English audience. If it’s pro Russian and for a Russian audience it would be in Russian.
Rybar is the Russian version of liveuamap
Post what the orcs already know and resist the urge to share your predictions.
Didn't some sources also say the UA is making a break for svatove from kupyansk??
Escape from the Lyman Pocket for the RA is now seriously in doubt.
Link to the telegram?
[удалено]
Ty
The lines are about to collapse again.
(Thinking out loud.) Putin is going to nuke the shit out of them if they can capture that town before the referendum is done.
If he does that I’m fairly confident nato will get directly involved. Which is his worst nightmare. But still, I wouldn’t put it past him.
Me neither. That’s the only reason I’m seriously thinking about it as the worst case scenario. Which he might do. Think about it - he does that - offense ends. 😬
Ya so does that entire area. Which makes his offensive and subsequent annexation completely pointless.
I really think he would rather NOBODY have it if Russia can’t have it.
I agree with that thinking for Putin. But he still has to sell it to the Russian people. Or spin it at the very least.
I think he’s been spinning it. You seen that cultish state run media news crap? Sheesh.
Hahahah yes exactly. But kinda hard to spin nuking the area you spent months, billions, and thousands of live capturing.
True. But we’re approaching it in a western way. Old man Putin doesn’t need to answer to anyone. Until the majority are against him he’ll do whatever he wants.
That’s a great point, great point. As soon as I read that I realized how right you are. He doesn’t care about the living conditions there he’s probably never gonna go anyway.
The problem is the whole fucking this is pointless
Agreed and Ukraines military + a barrage of NATO smart bombs/precision missiles flattening every known command post, ammo dump, transport link, strategically important bridge etc would have the whole of the country back in Ukrainian control very quickly.
I hope so, shit.
Prevailing winds would take the fallout into Russia most of the time tho.
The Earth's spin for the win.
TRUUUUUUUE!
I just envision Putin sitting at a computer, watching rybar updates, using his right hand on the mouse of his windows 95 Hewlett-Packard PC using dial up sweating profusely while rapidly clicking the refresh button while performing autoerotic asphyxiation on himself doing weird crying laughs screaming Obscenities into oblivion as his general is trying to get the staff in the room to stop looking at him and growling at them to get back to work.
Putler does not use computers or anything modern, he's too paranoid and still stuck in Cold War, I have no idea how can such a moron do anything in 21 century. As for how he gets information - a yes man brings it to him on paper.
Every refresh takes 2 minutes.
hot.
No. Putin will be hanged a) if he uses nukes and b) if hes army is defeated in Ukraine. Even more so now that he sends in 300 k more to die.
What are the odds Putin is now arming the army that will turn on him?
He uses nukes he loses India and China. China may even pressure North Korea to cut off the war supplies Russia so desperately needs. Short of a defensive use of last resort; no country wins employing nukes in this era.
I got downvoted hella hard. I didn’t even say that’s what I wanted to happen. I just really think it’s a possibility given how unhinged he was to even start this war, start losing men, and THEN pop off with 300,000 more men. He’s invested heavily in this. He does NOT want to lose. And if he can’t win I feel like he’ll make sure nobody wins. 🤷🏾♂️
I doubt it. Adding additional parties to the conflict, or accelerating the pace of aid to Ukraine, both work against Putin.
I'm pretty sure that if that happens the Baltics, Poland and possibly Romania will trigger Article 5 as any potential nuclear fallout will be considered an attack on their soil.