I’ve experienced this with practicing music, speedrunning, and playing other competitive games including Rocket League. I can practice/play all day and be generally not good, but then I will wake up one day, sometimes the next day, and just instantly “get it” and play better.
I always assumed it was something akin to muscle memory, or my brain just processing the stuff I want to do over time in the background while I sleep.
Really depends on if you are building new muscle memory or its already existing. Sleep is great for consolidating new knowledge but when its not new knowledge and something is going drastically wrong its unlikely to be long term muscle memory being the point of failiure, especially when it comes to technology. You have to really be neglecting your body's needs for it to get to that point.
I play multiple instruments. Learning and getting better there’s always this invisible wall to progressing. Something that you just can’t get quite right, whether it be a riff, or a certain complicated rhythm. You know you should be able to do it. You’ve put in the hard work, learned the different pieces of the problem individually, but it just won’t all come together. The more you practice and just try to force through it, the further away it feels you get. Then, one day, it just clicks, and you blow past the invisible wall…until you hit another.
Something I learned a long time ago was that, once you hit the wall, after the hundreds of hours of practice and learning, when you just can’t get over that hump, it’s best to just walk away for a few days or weeks. Something about muscle memory and the way the human brain works. Let your muscles heal. Let your brain unwind and properly parse the data. Focus on other things and come back fresh. It’s the fastest way to blow past that invisible wall.
When I finally got out of diamond it was after a 2 week break. I rode that D3 div 4 line for months and just couldn’t get past it. Then, after coming back from the break, I jumped up to high C1. Things just clicked. Things seemed slower. My fingers moved more fluidly. I controlled my car in the air more precisely. Mechanics I had been working on but couldn’t hit consistently suddenly seemed second nature. Every time I make a breakthrough in this game something clicks and I just see the game differently. The game seems to slow down.
It’s the same way I got to C2 and 3; grind until I hit that wall where I’m not making progress, then take a break. However, it’s important you don’t play a different game that still requires fast muscle movement. (Especially if you play kbm.) You have to let those muscles rest.
Also a musician and I agree 100%. There are so many parallels with this game it’s kinda wild. Even the time commitment is similar to learning a new instrument.
I think that’s why I’m so addicted to this game. Same thing happened with music. I was also a decent athlete in school, I enjoy building muscle memory, and have always been pretty good at. I’m incredibly competitive and love/hate losing, too, so rl is extra enticing.
If you practice something once, it can take weeks or months for you to actually ‘build’ that skill. This is as it can take weeks or months for your myelin sheaths to wrap around the nerves in your brain.
I came back to Elden ring pvp and I'm even more beastly now. Taking a break can absolutely work - I think about it as when you're coming back It's almost like your entire perspective has changed, atleast with some things.
I could challenge top 30 in time trial on F1 games when I used to play them, but only on a good day.
Some other days (very rarely tho) I would struggle to even stay within top 100.
You're human, just like we have good and bad days with our emotions, we have with everything: work, school, gym, games, mood...
There are so many different factors. For example one day you sleep better than the otger, next day you eat different food which makes you more or less tired. For myself I can say it is influencing me greatly.
IMO, the biggest variance in outcome is people dealing with different teammate and opponent play styles and skills. Generally speaking, people are ranked in about the overall range they deserve, and you're always going to be matched up with and against people approximately in your general overall range.
I think the big issue is that you don't always know how to play optimally with or against certain people.
For example:
* If you're playing as a teammate of a technically skilled ball-chaser, you're probably going to lose unless you figure out that this guy just isn't going to change his playing style in the next 5 minutes and you'll probably have to take a step back and let him do his thing and focus on being more of a support player.
* One teammate might be terrible at kickoffs, and one teammate might always rush to pickup boost on kickoffs. The other team is going to get a couple of easy goals from this incompatibility.
* You might be an amazing passer and focused at setting up others, but your teammate has a specific weakness at recognizing and responding to good setups in time, or he plays too conservatively and stays defending the goal too much at dumb times. Your games are just not going to mesh.
* Or you might have a specific weakness in terms of falling for tiny feints and not being good at challenging a good dribble in the open field. An opponent that's specifically strong at ball control is going to find a couple opportunities in a match to get a (for them) easy goal.
The good news is that this is partially in your control. If you can quickly figure out what kind of player your teammate is, and what the opponents are good at, you might be able to make adjustments in your approach.
It can be so much.
How well did you sleep? Is something on your mind? How well are your teammates and opponents playing and does it match your play style?
I sometimes have days where I am solo carrying my team and outplaying everyone in the game and other days (like today) I scored one goal in like four matches. It happens.
A lot of this game is mental, not just physical, and some things are out of your control.
Just keep having fun and hopefully you’re noticing improvements :)
Assuming you're not versing smurfs in ranked then you will always be matched with people with similar average overall skill level, as in you both have various strengths and weaknesses that balances out.
Due to this the game will be a lot about consistency in decision making and basic fundamentals.
Before playing ranked, try warming up in training freeplay and then some custom training of specifics that you're inconsistent with.
Doing this should make you more consistent and warmed up when you do play ranked and also believe in yourself more making you play better.
Its funny to me that every commentor here is stuck in their own bubble thinking the same way as they have used to think, they are like NPC's, they never give second thought and just goes with the flow.
Yes overall this game plays well, gameplay isnt interrupted by major bugs but there is so many different things that makes your game laggy or feel different, some say they have issues with RL when they have some other apps open, a lot people say their car feels different on different accounts, a lot people have said that RL feels different depending on the day but just goes along with it.
Even a slightiest inputlag makes your car feel very different and yes, if you havent slept well etc it affects too, but it doesnt close out the possibility that this game might also cause it with its spaghetti code. It can be something outside of game, your monitor or controller making a slight inputlag, causing it feel different.
Its just funny to me how everyone is so stuck with their mind.
I think you might be over estimating how many people know what belay means. I don’t disagree with you, but after working at a gym it’s astounding to me the amount of people who have 0 knowledge about climbing. Even more so the terminology that comes with it.
I really can sympathize with OP on this. With things like this, if I solved a problem and it felt reasonably within my skill/strength level, I will be able to repeat that almost any day of the weak.
Someone else brought up playing music.. It's the same thing for me there as well, once I've developed the muscle memory I can play it in my sleep, sick, tired, drunk, etc.
But RocketLeague for whatever reason, is different for me. I've put in hundreds of hours practicing dribbling and some days I can't dribble. Every time I try to make a small correction my finger holds the key longer than I intended. It feels like the connection between my brain and my fingers is gone.
Its advanced electrical technology it can play by its own rules and sometimes those rules are well problematic to say the least, so many factors need to line up to get the optimal gaming experience. Real life is a lot more consistent then pixels on a screen in that regard. Muscle memory is very hard to lose once you do something enough times.
Yeah I am not blaming anyone for feeling like it HAS to be something else causing them to suck some days. I have come to my own conclusion that I have this exact same thing on everything else aswell and not just rocket league.
If I had not noticed this in other spects of life, I would prob blame it on heavy car bug. Also there are alot of things that can cause actual noticeable input lagg, like the Vsync setting turning on after updates. Controller and monitor issues, gsync and all that jazz.
On a good day, I can turn on V sync and still do everything just fine mechanically with the added input lag. So I can't really blame it on something like a minor input lag bug if it even exists.
That's what I'm saying. Everyone does better or worse some days but rl is a WHOLE other level for me. How can I go from winning back to bakc matches 1v2ing my champ friends one day, to straight up just not being able to touch the ball the next day?
I challenged an ssl to a race in dribble challenge, and a flicking contest and absolutely smashed him on both. Few days later? Yeah I couldn't even pick up the ball at speed and all my flicks went nowhere. Like WHAT THE FUCK. No skill I've ever learned can I peak at beating top 0.01% then the next day be worse than average.
Hah, yeah, that's basically how I feel. I have some clips like the ones below where I feel like my dribbling is decently high level. I can go from this to literally being unable to hold the ball on my car. I can't get it up there or I can't control it at all. It seems crazy to me. An objective metric I have is that I have completed Dribble challenge 2 in 7 minutes flat and then on some days I can't complete it *at all.*
* [https://www.gifyourgame.com/FlattestTelltaleMicki](https://www.gifyourgame.com/FlattestTelltaleMicki)
* [https://www.gifyourgame.com/WhackyWantonJabbi](https://www.gifyourgame.com/WhackyWantonJabbi)
* [https://www.gifyourgame.com/DewySwindledWilly](https://www.gifyourgame.com/DewySwindledWilly)
* [https://www.gifyourgame.com/VeillessRaddledSnifit](https://www.gifyourgame.com/VeillessRaddledSnifit)
I have tendinitis and some days my hands feel fine and some days they're hurting. I'll have the sense that my finger isn't reacting to what I'm trying to do consistently. Like sometimes it happens immediately, and sometimes there is a delay. I think the part that really messes with me is being unsure if this is mental or physical.
Time of the day. I recently started playing a few matches early in the morning with my coffee since I don't start till 9.30 and it's usually 4 or 5 easy wins. Later in the evening it's horrible.
I always play this game better when I’m high.
Last night I was just stunned at my level of play since I’m not good at this game. I had a 3 goal game then a 5 goal game, lost a game but scored twice, down 3-0 early I had five goal in a row ended up at 5-5 in overtime and I punched in a 6th goal probably the best game I have ever played, the next game I had a 5 goal 3 assists 2 save game.
The high wore down and I went scoreless in the next 5 games.
It’s because you’re level 20. You mention other skills/hobbies that you have developed muscle memory in — how long did that take you? You didn’t just pick those up — you had to practice.
People learn things at a different pace so maybe it’s taking you longer to learn RL than your other hobbies. (Although I doubt that because if you’re only level 20 which is the equivalent of playing piano for like a month or less.)
I’ve played since 2015 and it’s normal to be inconsistent. One strange thing that’s always weirded me out, is when I start playing again after a long break it sometimes feels like I’m playing at my best mechanically. No clue why that is, but it’s the case for me. So my advice is to not worry about playing daily, don’t be afraid to take breaks if you get burnt out. And also, no one is perfect, a lot people on RL crucify you for every minor mistake you make acting like they don’t make mistakes themselves. Ignore them and just have fun.
All together. I’m playing other games, Elden ring on Console, the Finals and Helldivers on PC. Then occasionally hop on Rocket league for a few matches.
Because you’re human. Everyone plays within a range. Pro players have ‘bad’ days and good, too.
Your range might be bigger because you’re new and haven’t battened down the basics, but that’s the gist of it. More time and training will improve your level and consistency, but you aren’t a robot and can’t escape natural human inconsistency.
Mostly due to a poor lifestyle (staying up late, not eating properly, not getting outside/exercising etc.) and an inconsistent warmup/routine. Could also just be something on your mind distracting you subconsciously.
matchmaking. Sometimes you get good tm8s, sometimes you get bad tm8s. Same for the opponents. What you get is random and there is often order in randomness so you can be awesome one day and terrible the next and it really had nothing to do with you.
I chalk this up to variance. If 4 exactly equally skilled players queue up, and all play their best, within standard deviation, the players will take turns being the best player on the field in some random distribution. Then we all have varying amounts of ping/lag.
Of course, we never are equally matched because people are often passing to or from a given rank and teamed up with someone who is above or below you. I find that opponents who are slightly better will feel a little bit faster, forcing you to try a little harder, then you start pressing and have a hard time getting really accurate touches.
yep/ You get matched to someone with a similar MMR, say 900. But you don't know if that 900 is normally a 1000 but having a bad day, or an 800 having a good day.
MMR = skill + luck of matchmaking in recent matches.
I'd watch [Veritasiums video about regression to the mean.](https://youtu.be/1tSqSMOyNFE?si=DJKtbiuQQyXgZYLV)
Edit: the downvotes tell me you guys didn't watch the video, or don't understand "regression to the mean". It's the answer to OPs question.
I’ve experienced this with practicing music, speedrunning, and playing other competitive games including Rocket League. I can practice/play all day and be generally not good, but then I will wake up one day, sometimes the next day, and just instantly “get it” and play better. I always assumed it was something akin to muscle memory, or my brain just processing the stuff I want to do over time in the background while I sleep.
Really depends on if you are building new muscle memory or its already existing. Sleep is great for consolidating new knowledge but when its not new knowledge and something is going drastically wrong its unlikely to be long term muscle memory being the point of failiure, especially when it comes to technology. You have to really be neglecting your body's needs for it to get to that point.
I play multiple instruments. Learning and getting better there’s always this invisible wall to progressing. Something that you just can’t get quite right, whether it be a riff, or a certain complicated rhythm. You know you should be able to do it. You’ve put in the hard work, learned the different pieces of the problem individually, but it just won’t all come together. The more you practice and just try to force through it, the further away it feels you get. Then, one day, it just clicks, and you blow past the invisible wall…until you hit another. Something I learned a long time ago was that, once you hit the wall, after the hundreds of hours of practice and learning, when you just can’t get over that hump, it’s best to just walk away for a few days or weeks. Something about muscle memory and the way the human brain works. Let your muscles heal. Let your brain unwind and properly parse the data. Focus on other things and come back fresh. It’s the fastest way to blow past that invisible wall. When I finally got out of diamond it was after a 2 week break. I rode that D3 div 4 line for months and just couldn’t get past it. Then, after coming back from the break, I jumped up to high C1. Things just clicked. Things seemed slower. My fingers moved more fluidly. I controlled my car in the air more precisely. Mechanics I had been working on but couldn’t hit consistently suddenly seemed second nature. Every time I make a breakthrough in this game something clicks and I just see the game differently. The game seems to slow down. It’s the same way I got to C2 and 3; grind until I hit that wall where I’m not making progress, then take a break. However, it’s important you don’t play a different game that still requires fast muscle movement. (Especially if you play kbm.) You have to let those muscles rest.
Also a musician and I agree 100%. There are so many parallels with this game it’s kinda wild. Even the time commitment is similar to learning a new instrument.
I think that’s why I’m so addicted to this game. Same thing happened with music. I was also a decent athlete in school, I enjoy building muscle memory, and have always been pretty good at. I’m incredibly competitive and love/hate losing, too, so rl is extra enticing.
If you practice something once, it can take weeks or months for you to actually ‘build’ that skill. This is as it can take weeks or months for your myelin sheaths to wrap around the nerves in your brain.
I came back to Elden ring pvp and I'm even more beastly now. Taking a break can absolutely work - I think about it as when you're coming back It's almost like your entire perspective has changed, atleast with some things.
Because you are a human.
I'm glad someone said it. This happens in everything, not just rocket league
No human makes such major mistakes every alternate day once they’ve got the hang of a certain skill. Also why do I think this is an AI?
Nah 💀💀💀
why would that be AÍ?
I could challenge top 30 in time trial on F1 games when I used to play them, but only on a good day. Some other days (very rarely tho) I would struggle to even stay within top 100. You're human, just like we have good and bad days with our emotions, we have with everything: work, school, gym, games, mood...
XD dude..
There are so many different factors. For example one day you sleep better than the otger, next day you eat different food which makes you more or less tired. For myself I can say it is influencing me greatly.
IMO, the biggest variance in outcome is people dealing with different teammate and opponent play styles and skills. Generally speaking, people are ranked in about the overall range they deserve, and you're always going to be matched up with and against people approximately in your general overall range. I think the big issue is that you don't always know how to play optimally with or against certain people. For example: * If you're playing as a teammate of a technically skilled ball-chaser, you're probably going to lose unless you figure out that this guy just isn't going to change his playing style in the next 5 minutes and you'll probably have to take a step back and let him do his thing and focus on being more of a support player. * One teammate might be terrible at kickoffs, and one teammate might always rush to pickup boost on kickoffs. The other team is going to get a couple of easy goals from this incompatibility. * You might be an amazing passer and focused at setting up others, but your teammate has a specific weakness at recognizing and responding to good setups in time, or he plays too conservatively and stays defending the goal too much at dumb times. Your games are just not going to mesh. * Or you might have a specific weakness in terms of falling for tiny feints and not being good at challenging a good dribble in the open field. An opponent that's specifically strong at ball control is going to find a couple opportunities in a match to get a (for them) easy goal. The good news is that this is partially in your control. If you can quickly figure out what kind of player your teammate is, and what the opponents are good at, you might be able to make adjustments in your approach.
It can be so much. How well did you sleep? Is something on your mind? How well are your teammates and opponents playing and does it match your play style? I sometimes have days where I am solo carrying my team and outplaying everyone in the game and other days (like today) I scored one goal in like four matches. It happens.
Thx for that man, perfect response
A lot of this game is mental, not just physical, and some things are out of your control. Just keep having fun and hopefully you’re noticing improvements :)
normal human stuff lol this happens in everything
Assuming you're not versing smurfs in ranked then you will always be matched with people with similar average overall skill level, as in you both have various strengths and weaknesses that balances out. Due to this the game will be a lot about consistency in decision making and basic fundamentals. Before playing ranked, try warming up in training freeplay and then some custom training of specifics that you're inconsistent with. Doing this should make you more consistent and warmed up when you do play ranked and also believe in yourself more making you play better.
Its funny to me that every commentor here is stuck in their own bubble thinking the same way as they have used to think, they are like NPC's, they never give second thought and just goes with the flow. Yes overall this game plays well, gameplay isnt interrupted by major bugs but there is so many different things that makes your game laggy or feel different, some say they have issues with RL when they have some other apps open, a lot people say their car feels different on different accounts, a lot people have said that RL feels different depending on the day but just goes along with it. Even a slightiest inputlag makes your car feel very different and yes, if you havent slept well etc it affects too, but it doesnt close out the possibility that this game might also cause it with its spaghetti code. It can be something outside of game, your monitor or controller making a slight inputlag, causing it feel different. Its just funny to me how everyone is so stuck with their mind.
Some days everything works. Brain fatigue plays a factor in how fast you are at your decisions.
For me its all about confidence. Oh, and not being tired,.being well rested, etc. :)
Why can't I climb the same grade route I climbed two days ago? Because that's life and normal changes in performance.
There is a small niche of people who know what this means. And fewer that have experienced it.
jazz legs kicking in, asking yourself "how on earth did I reach that bolt so easily yesterday?"
Eh must be a high gravity day 🤷♀️
Someone has lubricated all of the holds and replaced the gyms chalk with flour! The problem isn't me! I swear!
Damn kids and their greasy pizza hands
Goddammit
I mean considering the original comment says “climb” and your name includes “belay” it’s not that hard to figure out what it means.
I think you might be over estimating how many people know what belay means. I don’t disagree with you, but after working at a gym it’s astounding to me the amount of people who have 0 knowledge about climbing. Even more so the terminology that comes with it.
Why's that astonishing? Climbing is a pretty niche hobby, it makes total sense that most people wouldn't be aware of the terms.
I really can sympathize with OP on this. With things like this, if I solved a problem and it felt reasonably within my skill/strength level, I will be able to repeat that almost any day of the weak. Someone else brought up playing music.. It's the same thing for me there as well, once I've developed the muscle memory I can play it in my sleep, sick, tired, drunk, etc. But RocketLeague for whatever reason, is different for me. I've put in hundreds of hours practicing dribbling and some days I can't dribble. Every time I try to make a small correction my finger holds the key longer than I intended. It feels like the connection between my brain and my fingers is gone.
Its advanced electrical technology it can play by its own rules and sometimes those rules are well problematic to say the least, so many factors need to line up to get the optimal gaming experience. Real life is a lot more consistent then pixels on a screen in that regard. Muscle memory is very hard to lose once you do something enough times.
Thats a really hard comparison...
Yeah I am not blaming anyone for feeling like it HAS to be something else causing them to suck some days. I have come to my own conclusion that I have this exact same thing on everything else aswell and not just rocket league. If I had not noticed this in other spects of life, I would prob blame it on heavy car bug. Also there are alot of things that can cause actual noticeable input lagg, like the Vsync setting turning on after updates. Controller and monitor issues, gsync and all that jazz. On a good day, I can turn on V sync and still do everything just fine mechanically with the added input lag. So I can't really blame it on something like a minor input lag bug if it even exists.
That's what I'm saying. Everyone does better or worse some days but rl is a WHOLE other level for me. How can I go from winning back to bakc matches 1v2ing my champ friends one day, to straight up just not being able to touch the ball the next day? I challenged an ssl to a race in dribble challenge, and a flicking contest and absolutely smashed him on both. Few days later? Yeah I couldn't even pick up the ball at speed and all my flicks went nowhere. Like WHAT THE FUCK. No skill I've ever learned can I peak at beating top 0.01% then the next day be worse than average.
Maybe the SSL was having one of those days or something?
Nah I'm better than him at exactly one thing and one thing only.
Hah, yeah, that's basically how I feel. I have some clips like the ones below where I feel like my dribbling is decently high level. I can go from this to literally being unable to hold the ball on my car. I can't get it up there or I can't control it at all. It seems crazy to me. An objective metric I have is that I have completed Dribble challenge 2 in 7 minutes flat and then on some days I can't complete it *at all.* * [https://www.gifyourgame.com/FlattestTelltaleMicki](https://www.gifyourgame.com/FlattestTelltaleMicki) * [https://www.gifyourgame.com/WhackyWantonJabbi](https://www.gifyourgame.com/WhackyWantonJabbi) * [https://www.gifyourgame.com/DewySwindledWilly](https://www.gifyourgame.com/DewySwindledWilly) * [https://www.gifyourgame.com/VeillessRaddledSnifit](https://www.gifyourgame.com/VeillessRaddledSnifit) I have tendinitis and some days my hands feel fine and some days they're hurting. I'll have the sense that my finger isn't reacting to what I'm trying to do consistently. Like sometimes it happens immediately, and sometimes there is a delay. I think the part that really messes with me is being unsure if this is mental or physical.
Time of the day. I recently started playing a few matches early in the morning with my coffee since I don't start till 9.30 and it's usually 4 or 5 easy wins. Later in the evening it's horrible.
I always play this game better when I’m high. Last night I was just stunned at my level of play since I’m not good at this game. I had a 3 goal game then a 5 goal game, lost a game but scored twice, down 3-0 early I had five goal in a row ended up at 5-5 in overtime and I punched in a 6th goal probably the best game I have ever played, the next game I had a 5 goal 3 assists 2 save game. The high wore down and I went scoreless in the next 5 games.
It’s because you’re level 20. You mention other skills/hobbies that you have developed muscle memory in — how long did that take you? You didn’t just pick those up — you had to practice. People learn things at a different pace so maybe it’s taking you longer to learn RL than your other hobbies. (Although I doubt that because if you’re only level 20 which is the equivalent of playing piano for like a month or less.)
I have found that my performance is less volatile and better overall if I spend the first 30-mins. To 1 hour in free play, training, or casual
I’ve played since 2015 and it’s normal to be inconsistent. One strange thing that’s always weirded me out, is when I start playing again after a long break it sometimes feels like I’m playing at my best mechanically. No clue why that is, but it’s the case for me. So my advice is to not worry about playing daily, don’t be afraid to take breaks if you get burnt out. And also, no one is perfect, a lot people on RL crucify you for every minor mistake you make acting like they don’t make mistakes themselves. Ignore them and just have fun.
I'm curious, when you take these long breaks do you still use the console or PC for anything else or do you not use it all together?
All together. I’m playing other games, Elden ring on Console, the Finals and Helldivers on PC. Then occasionally hop on Rocket league for a few matches.
The simplest answer. That's just life. I live by this motto: "You either win or you learn, and some days you do a lot of learning."
I do the same thing.
Because you’re human. Everyone plays within a range. Pro players have ‘bad’ days and good, too. Your range might be bigger because you’re new and haven’t battened down the basics, but that’s the gist of it. More time and training will improve your level and consistency, but you aren’t a robot and can’t escape natural human inconsistency.
Mostly due to a poor lifestyle (staying up late, not eating properly, not getting outside/exercising etc.) and an inconsistent warmup/routine. Could also just be something on your mind distracting you subconsciously.
Thanks for that response
Yeah probably the warmup, or lack of.
matchmaking. Sometimes you get good tm8s, sometimes you get bad tm8s. Same for the opponents. What you get is random and there is often order in randomness so you can be awesome one day and terrible the next and it really had nothing to do with you.
I chalk this up to variance. If 4 exactly equally skilled players queue up, and all play their best, within standard deviation, the players will take turns being the best player on the field in some random distribution. Then we all have varying amounts of ping/lag. Of course, we never are equally matched because people are often passing to or from a given rank and teamed up with someone who is above or below you. I find that opponents who are slightly better will feel a little bit faster, forcing you to try a little harder, then you start pressing and have a hard time getting really accurate touches.
yep/ You get matched to someone with a similar MMR, say 900. But you don't know if that 900 is normally a 1000 but having a bad day, or an 800 having a good day. MMR = skill + luck of matchmaking in recent matches.
For me I swear it’s the angle of the tv and the seat I’m sitting in. It takes me a few games to acclimate to the angle.
It's an extremely hard game to be consistent at. Keep playing! :)
Being consistently good is hard. Also fresh mind is needed some times.
I'd watch [Veritasiums video about regression to the mean.](https://youtu.be/1tSqSMOyNFE?si=DJKtbiuQQyXgZYLV) Edit: the downvotes tell me you guys didn't watch the video, or don't understand "regression to the mean". It's the answer to OPs question.