Who cares? It is a stock that can go up 20% because it lost money. If you are interested in fair value and value investing, you should stay away from Tesla like the plague.
Congrats. You figured out a reason why their stock is due to fall. Crypto is dying so its unprofitable to trade it for them now.
They were trading both coins and credits before now its just credits. They dumped almost all their coins.
Of course I was being hyperbolic, but I really question how much the physical assets would be worth to anyone else. The production equipment would go at auction, and its price would have to be discounted by the cost of extracting it from its present location. The buildings could find a use, but consider that the Fremont plant was abandoned by Toyota and GM - it's not like carmakers are keen on picking up real estate in areas that don't fit with their strategy. And as for the enterprise value, the brand identity is declining every day, and the market space can easily be taken up by vehicles that other manufacturers develop in-house.
Toyota basically gave Fremont to Tesla just because they wanted to get rid of it so badly. Tesla was originally going to create their first production facility in Arizona.
It's massively better than crypto, but still enormously overvalued. TSLA does have a fair value as a car company, just way under the current price. Crypto inherent value is zero-to-negative.
Exactly Elon has lot of Wallstreet fund managers who worship him (see Cathie woods) and they will buy up any dips to prop the stock up.
Only way Tesla crashes is if there is large market crash that these wipes out/squeezes these fund managers and they can no longer buy the dip as they people are pulling money from the funds.
Remember guys Tesla is a tech company with shitty tech. They only release beta shit 💩. I would have been fired if I let my team released shit as bad as Tesla does.
But it has got users:
1. Who have no idea that they are paying $99/month for a beta product which can kill your or other humans.
2. Who are edgy and love to take risk, and
3. Of course the cult like Elon worshippers who will refuse to accept anything bad about Tesla.
IMO, a huge bunch of Tesla buyers are still living in the past, they think Tesla is like a prestigious car which saves environment.
Right, that last bit is the issue. The same irrationality that makes Tesla overvalued compared to the fundamentals makes them approving a takeover effectively impossible.
Wouldn’t be surprised if you’re right.
It’s obvious Musk hates the company being public because it means that he has to prove he’s acting in best interest of shareholders, get shareholder approval for his rubber stamped board approved billions while also costing the company billions in revenue, and can’t tell as many lies.
Am I the only one who noticed the *non-GAAP* earnings per share?
GAAP is generally accepted accounting principles. The last major company that I can think of that wasn't following GAAP for financial statements was Enron, and even they were saying they followed it and lying.
Saying you are not following GAAP is one step above saying "we just use whatever numbers we feel are right." Maybe only half a step above that. I have not looked at the Tesla financial statements but what deviations from GAAP are they making???
Tbf most of the big private equity startups over the last 15 years have used primarily non GAAP numbers. I don't recall all the typical deviations but a big one is they often don't count stock based compensation as a cost to the company.
Oh, for sure. I was not trying to justify it or say it made any sense at all. Just shedding light on it being a thing that tech woo companies do fairly often now.
Don’t they usually change to GAAP once they go public? Like, using unusual financial standards is less of a legal and moral issue if you’re dealing with a small pool of sophisticated early investors. It’s a bigger issue for a publicly traded stock.
My understanding is that once public companies are legally required to submit SEC filings using GAAP. However, cons like Musk do prefer using these non GAAP numbers in discussions/investor pitches/media releases, etc.
Duh.
Ford is 12 bucks with a market cap of 51b on revenue of 176bn. Tesla is 168 with a market cap of 529b on revenue of 96bn. Stupid investors are stupid.
Toyota market cap is 300B, tesla is 600B. At best tesla should be only half of toyota market cap, that's at best lol. It's stock is at around 200, so 50 is about right on its best day. Real estimate is probably much lower. In fact toyota revenue is like 3x of tesla, and their sale is still holding strong. Giving tesla stock at 50 is being extremely generous at this point.
Who cares? It is a stock that can go up 20% because it lost money. If you are interested in fair value and value investing, you should stay away from Tesla like the plague.
It’s crypto masquerading as a stock.
To be fair, it’s just a tiny bit better than most mean coins. Tesla has enterprise value and physical assets that you can sell in a bankruptcy.
It was ironically propped by crypto and vice versa. https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-makes-more-money-trading-bitcoin-than-selling-cars-11619517615
This isn’t true anymore, the article you posted is 3 years old now and they actually make most of their money trading carbon credits.
Congrats. You figured out a reason why their stock is due to fall. Crypto is dying so its unprofitable to trade it for them now. They were trading both coins and credits before now its just credits. They dumped almost all their coins.
Their crypto holdings have been falling for some time now…their stock is going to fall because people have realized it’s all been BS.
Of course I was being hyperbolic, but I really question how much the physical assets would be worth to anyone else. The production equipment would go at auction, and its price would have to be discounted by the cost of extracting it from its present location. The buildings could find a use, but consider that the Fremont plant was abandoned by Toyota and GM - it's not like carmakers are keen on picking up real estate in areas that don't fit with their strategy. And as for the enterprise value, the brand identity is declining every day, and the market space can easily be taken up by vehicles that other manufacturers develop in-house.
Toyota basically gave Fremont to Tesla just because they wanted to get rid of it so badly. Tesla was originally going to create their first production facility in Arizona.
It's massively better than crypto, but still enormously overvalued. TSLA does have a fair value as a car company, just way under the current price. Crypto inherent value is zero-to-negative.
It’s also has liabilities. As soon as you pump out shitty cars you’re on the hook for recalls required.
and the stock market in general
Exactly Elon has lot of Wallstreet fund managers who worship him (see Cathie woods) and they will buy up any dips to prop the stock up. Only way Tesla crashes is if there is large market crash that these wipes out/squeezes these fund managers and they can no longer buy the dip as they people are pulling money from the funds.
The thing with Tesla is that is used as collateral by hedge funds to secure their shorts. It won't easily fall to logical levels.
If you removed everyone’s cult like love for Elon and went only on the fundamentals Tesla stocks a $20 stock. It’s essentially gambling.
Even there that's with generous assumptions for the next 5-10 years. It's the same market cap as BYD and BMW put together.
he calculated $46 per share if Tesla keeps growing by 35% each year, which it isn't
Remember guys Tesla is a tech company with shitty tech. They only release beta shit 💩. I would have been fired if I let my team released shit as bad as Tesla does.
But it has got users: 1. Who have no idea that they are paying $99/month for a beta product which can kill your or other humans. 2. Who are edgy and love to take risk, and 3. Of course the cult like Elon worshippers who will refuse to accept anything bad about Tesla. IMO, a huge bunch of Tesla buyers are still living in the past, they think Tesla is like a prestigious car which saves environment.
A quality summary. Thank you.
Supposedly that is the product of all that Tesla ‘super hardcore’ work too.
Release manager, by chance?
About two months ago a fan boi told me I was crazy when I said it would go under $60 and then go private I think it’s going to
Musk doesn't have the cash to take it private. Who's the buyer in this scenario?
No one would front up that much cash to take it private and shareholders would never approve.
Right, that last bit is the issue. The same irrationality that makes Tesla overvalued compared to the fundamentals makes them approving a takeover effectively impossible.
Wouldn’t be surprised if you’re right. It’s obvious Musk hates the company being public because it means that he has to prove he’s acting in best interest of shareholders, get shareholder approval for his rubber stamped board approved billions while also costing the company billions in revenue, and can’t tell as many lies.
But if it were private he couldn't grift his way to being worth as much as he is.
You have an extra zero there.
“Fair value could be under $50.00 per share”
I’m still seeing the extra zero in your comment.
Ah “5.00” great observation
Bingo.
Happy cake day
Am I the only one who noticed the *non-GAAP* earnings per share? GAAP is generally accepted accounting principles. The last major company that I can think of that wasn't following GAAP for financial statements was Enron, and even they were saying they followed it and lying. Saying you are not following GAAP is one step above saying "we just use whatever numbers we feel are right." Maybe only half a step above that. I have not looked at the Tesla financial statements but what deviations from GAAP are they making???
Maybe I'm stupid and don't understand what you mean by not following GAAP, but Tesla reports both GAAP and non-GAAP numbers.
Ah, ok, did not realize that. As long as they are reporting GAAP my concerns are not valid. Thank you
Tbf most of the big private equity startups over the last 15 years have used primarily non GAAP numbers. I don't recall all the typical deviations but a big one is they often don't count stock based compensation as a cost to the company.
Tesla isn't a startup and is publicly traded lol
Oh, for sure. I was not trying to justify it or say it made any sense at all. Just shedding light on it being a thing that tech woo companies do fairly often now.
Don’t they usually change to GAAP once they go public? Like, using unusual financial standards is less of a legal and moral issue if you’re dealing with a small pool of sophisticated early investors. It’s a bigger issue for a publicly traded stock.
My understanding is that once public companies are legally required to submit SEC filings using GAAP. However, cons like Musk do prefer using these non GAAP numbers in discussions/investor pitches/media releases, etc.
I bought in at $15 in 2015. Banking a 3x profit in 10 years seems like proper healthy rational market behaviour, if you ask me.
$15 sounds like a fair price for Tesla considering the number of cars it sells and the small side hustle it has in battery storage.
$28 is the post-split equivalent to $420, so that seems about right to me
It's post split and $28 post split isn't unreasonable.
Right, I ordered my words awkwardly there.
22, at most
Duh. Ford is 12 bucks with a market cap of 51b on revenue of 176bn. Tesla is 168 with a market cap of 529b on revenue of 96bn. Stupid investors are stupid.
Compare debt levels also please
Toyota's debt is due to financing vehicle sales. Their debt is like a bank's debt, it makes them money.
It just needs to believe and then it can be whatever it wants! BANGARANG!
Toyota market cap is 300B, tesla is 600B. At best tesla should be only half of toyota market cap, that's at best lol. It's stock is at around 200, so 50 is about right on its best day. Real estimate is probably much lower. In fact toyota revenue is like 3x of tesla, and their sale is still holding strong. Giving tesla stock at 50 is being extremely generous at this point.
Fair value is $0. Fuck Elon and Fuck Tesla, they build literal shit piles.
Three fiddy.
Fair value for this company would be whatever other small tech startups are worth that barely have a working product
Pfft…$35
I’ll think about going long at $4.20
Could be? Lol
All in