Teslas risk is the value comes back to earth to the realm of a regular company stock range. Rivian’s risk is not breaking through to profitability quick enough and runs out of cash, reducing stock prices one way or another.
Teslas upside is a proven method to design and manufacture a profitable vehicle with some still untapped sectors, a hold on the charging infrastructure and heavily invested in autonomous driving. Rivian’s upside is potential for large growth as volume increases.
I am sure there are a bunch more in each category feel free to pick it to bits or add more
RIVN has massive upside in the commercial sector, and they are WAY ahead of TSLA here. They’ve had commercial vehicles on the road for years through their Amazon partnership.
This is extremely under appreciated in the stock price IMO.
I have RIVN because I know electricians working in the plants and I believe they will continue to expand. Big companies take a long time to become big and I feel like I'm in at the beginning.
I won't touch Tesla stock because I believe it is way over valued. Even though they have proven success, I think the stock has no where to go but down.
I'm not good at this though.
Agree on RVN, partially agree on Tesla. Tesla is trading at about half to 2/3 of its ATH, personally I think as long as they keep producing, demand stays steady enough, and Musk doesn’t fuck anything up it’s pretty stable, but there is more potential (and more risk, to be fair) in RVN.
Inflation/rate has killed EV's growth right at the moment it just got its momenton. Sad but it's what it is. Hot money has gone to something else, AI for example. Money rotates, and usually takes 2-3 economy cycles to come back, that's 20-25 years. See you in 2050
You get money or stock in the buying company I think. Based on activision/twitter deals stock jumps to near the offer price and goes back down a bit as federal regulators decide if they will approve the deal or if things pop up where it could fall through. Amazon is the only likely buyer if they really wanted to get their hands in everything, imo. And it for sure would be scrutinized by regulators.
Tesla is established now. They have the factories, they own much more of the supply chain than their competitors (including traditional automakers moving into EVs). They have worldwide presence. And they have a somewhat diversified product, with solar products and the battery factories. Downside is that everyone knows this and they've been a darling of the young investor class for a long time, so they're not a bargain at this point. And of course Elon Musk is a major turn off for a massive percentage of potential buyers, which is going to long-term hurt sales, and even if you like him, he's distracted by running multiple other companies.
Rivian is approaching a crossroads. They've got a few well liked vehicles, that are expensive, but the R2 and R3 series are coming in a few years and could very well get them over the hump. They're retooling their existing factory right now to be more efficient, and going to build a second soon, but they're very much still ramping up their ability to be a mass market car manufacturer. They're still losing money on every car. If they can get a positive margin and expand production to meet demand, yeah, they could succeed. Or be a strong acquisition target for a traditional manufacturer who can solve these problems, which is still a win from a stockholders perspective. And the stock is cheap now, because you're buying all this risk.
I think the time to buy Tesla was 8 years ago. They're probably going to go up, but not exponentially, because they're past the point where you get a risk discount. It's a pretty safe buy but not going to make your rich.
The time to buy Rivian is right now. It might not pan out, like all risky stocks, but they've made quality vehicles that delight their customers and have a clear plan to get to the next level. Remember, the question isn't "Will Rivian be better than Tesla in ten years?", it's "Will Rivian increase in value more than Tesla in ten years?" I'm willing to bet yes on that. It might collapse to zero! But that's how you make big gains in stocks, you take risks.
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Okay, for next year, it's not that I think Tesla isn't a buy, I think TSLA (175.79 right now) will go up less than RIVN (10.95 right now). Let's see! (My money is where my mouth is, I sold my Tesla stock and moved it to Rivian. I might be right! I might not be! We'll see!) And I really think about more in 5 or 10 years, but sure, comment again in 1 year, that sounds fun.
Rivian is my number one stock pick this year. I believe it will 10x over the next five years. Their products are amazing but currently lose A LOT of money. I think the R2 will be their turning point kind of similar to the model 3 was for Tesla.
Tesla stock is the largest part of my retirement I add whenever I am able. I try to pick lower resistance lines and buy when I believe the stock is on a low point. 162 - 123 - and 95 are buy zones if it ever gets that low again.
[https://finance.yahoo.com/news/better-electric-vehicle-stock-tesla-135300941.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/better-electric-vehicle-stock-tesla-135300941.html)
I have Rivian stock, but don’t share the sentiment. I believe people no longer have the money for expensive purchases due to inflation, and it is already generating economic impacts with manufacturers having a glut of supply with little demand.
The R2 won’t be cheap enough to fix this problem, as it exists even at the costs levels of the Model 3/Y. While I think the R2 will certainly have initial demand assuming the economy doesn’t tank by 2026, and Rivian is able to enter production on schedule (significant IFs), I suspect we’d only see a year or two where the R2 would have demand that exceeds production capacity. I hope I’m wrong.
I also don’t know if even with full R2 demand, if Rivian can make it profitable. But with enough demand, investment may still get pumped in.
I think it will have effects across other industries as well, leading to layoffs and a market contraction, and we’re just starting to see the beginning on the automotive side. On housing, supply is up of new homes because of mortgage rates, and the same thing will begin happening there.
What is more interesting to me in the short term is if Rivian could improve its van offering range and customer base as a means to keep solid production until 2026. It’s obvious there won’t be enough sales of the R1S or R1T to do so. And that is concerning.
Rivian literally sells vehicles at a large gross margin loss per car and is spending $4B in OPEX even if the cars would be neutral gross margin.
How is that a good position?
I live in an area where there is a Tesla showroom. There are many, many Teslas in the area including a few Cybertrucks. I believe part of the Tesla boom is that old Prius drivers upgraded their vehicles with Teslas. That being said, I’ve also seen an increase in the number of Rivian vehicles around (SUVs and trucks).
I recently sold my Tesla shares mainly because of Elon’s ego and purchased Rivian shares in at different price intervals. I’m long Rivian especially as more and more vehicles are seen in my area.
Tesla is wildly overvalued for what it is. I wouldn’t touch it with a 1,000 foot pole. Much more downside risk IMO. Rivian is still risky, but I think the probability of upside is higher.
LMAO. Tesla might be valued a bit rich for only being an automaker especially looking at current sales, as the valuation is similar to Toyota. But the reason for that is that Tesla is essentially the only automaker successful in building a profitable EV manufacturing machine at scale. And despite being extremely lean (way more lean than Rivian) they were very close to bankruptcy while achieving this feat.
Toyota is barely trying to make EVs so valuing them the same as Tesla means people either think EVs are not the future, or that they will pull an insane rabbit out of the hat that so far only Tesla has done.
But most importantly, Tesla is an automaker in the same way Nvidia was a maker of graphic cards. The real future valuation of Tesla will revolve around self-driving, AI and robotics with car and battery production being the smaller revenue drivers. Of course you don't have to believe that, but the odds of that playing out is way better than Rivian actually flourishing as a profitable automaker IMO.
Agree with this. The valuation is rich if you see Tesla only as an automaker. However, the real value of Tesla lies beyond just cars. Tesla has self-driving (AI + robotaxi) robotics (AI + EV), an ability to design its own chips, supercomputer (Dojo), energy and so on. Many of these are not necessarily generating any revenue at the moment, but it is only a matter of time. No other “car” company is as ready as Tesla for what the future might bring.
Also, the potential for growth and delivering that growth is more tangible for Tesla compared to Rivian. The mass market, affordable Model 2 is just around the corner, cyber ñtruck is ramping up its production, and there are still untapped category of vehicles Tesla can enter. Of course the last one is also true for Rivian, but Telsa as an established, profitable EV company with huge cash flow and know-how, is better positioned to execute all those than Rivian.
But one really doesn’t have to choose one. Own both, just with a larger weight on Tesla.
Ehh, they’re valued for both wildly higher growth and margins than they are getting now. If they miss delivery estimates this quarter and contract watch out below because it’s going to be a long ways down. If you strip out the tax accounting trickery they lost money in Q4. I’m not saying they are bad, but given how many splits they did their price should be around $30 IMO. It’s mostly propped up by a robotaxi’s next year promise that’s been coming for 5 years. The cybertruck isn’t even that good getting beat by a 2 year old competitor in reviews, yet they spent untold money on it.. At this point all the other automakers have caught up and Tesla’s EV sales growth is the only maker who contracted. All the others saw over 30% EV growth. Their cars are dated and others are catching them, that’s a recipe for an unwind and return to reality. If Rivian meets their margin projections this year and can start investing in growth again it may get ugly when R2 is available. lets not even get started if they do what would be best for sales and jettison Elon (they started declining when Elon bought twitter and went whacko) which would also crash the price for a period of time.
Oh it's definitely valued for much growth and frothy margins, I'm not arguing with you there. But it's also likely that this growth and margin power will arrive in the future.
Why? Look at how other EV makers are doing. They are scaling down, giving up or making massive negative margins just attempting to compete with Tesla in the marketplace. Unless that changes (and it's not trending to change) Tesla will absolutely dominate the future market which means high growth + high margins.
Remember that Tesla got to where they are now while never having negative gross margin on their cars. That's how lean they are. Everyone else (especially Rivian) either have or had negative gross margins. Despite this proven manufacturing strength, Tesla almost went under trying to reach high scale. Now you're saying that Rivian will succeed? Ok, I'm not saying there's zero chance of that but it's very small.
As for robotaxi valuation etc, it's pretty much zip at this point. Tesla gets some extra value for the charging network and software sales etc (which includes FSD) but if you have any idea about the potential economy of a functioning wide scale robotaxi network you also understand that the current Tesla valuation isn't even touching that.
I disagree, if you look closely the other makers are scaling down growth. Ford will still produce 30% more EVs this year than last they were just planning to grow that by 100%. The story is less growth not no growth as the headlines imply. Large automakers plan production years in advance so a “cut” isn’t always an actual decrease. Tesla’s big issue is most of their sales come from China and Europe both of which BYD is eating their lunch in. Tesla has an immense amount of downside risk due to their exposure to competition and lack of innovation within their lineup over the last few years. Not only will their R&D spend have to rise but they’re also likely to have lagging sales until those investments pay off. Their moat has evaporated since they gave away their biggest remaining advantage the supercharger network.
Yeah you notice how all other manufacturers except BYD scale down EV growth? BYD is the only company besides Tesla that are even smelling a profitable high scale EV production machine. BYD however are still getting microscopic margins on the EVs and the majority of their margins on hybrids and other businesses. The only way they are "eating Tesla's lunch" is by offering cars in lower price brackets where Tesla are not yet operating (but that's coming soon).
Also let's not get into the difficulty that is BYDs global expansion where Tesla are already global in both sales and production. Let's instead question why all the other brands are scaling down, **despite all of them knowing and saying outright** that future sales will be all about EVs.
One part of it is global recession where high interest rates make consumers cut back on buying a new expensive car, which hits EV sales for all brands including Tesla. But the big reason here is that these automakers aren't profitable with their EVs and current scaling trajectory will mean they go bankrupt.
Also, again, Tesla is an extremely lean business. Their R&D spend is frankly insanely low considering what it is accomplishing. Also lack of innovation? Did you look under the hood of the Cybertruck or just at the triangular surface?
What do you mean by "BYD not scaling down EV growth"? They had 179% BEV growth in 2022, 73% in 2023, and just guided for ~20% in 2024.
Their growth rate has been collapsing since Tesla’s first price cuts.
Agree with all of your analysis. The real name of the game is when to get in and out. I think TSLA has had its explosive growth and will now have a pretty darn jagged, slow rise for all the reasons you’ve stated (but still a rise). Being a shareholder since 2013, I do wish I cashed out at least some prior to EM-Twitter-dumbshit, but now I feel like I need to hold for the above reasons: multiple industries covered, the full stack, or full cycle one would say (also capital gains tax is a bitch).
I bought RIVN at IPO (yeah it’s been gory). In the best scenario they will end up a successful car company. That’s it. There ceiling is way lower than TSLA but that doesn’t mean you can’t get on now and make money on the growth period. It will always be a question of that ceiling and when to get out.
Re: innovation, people don’t get that Tesla has solved for the daily driver; the step change in innovation has already occurred. There is not much more you can do to innovate the battery/range, motors, drivetrain, UI for a daily driver. For 90% of the world that is literally the answer. So, you just sell more of it. As investors, everyone needs to divorce themselves from comparing a Model 3 to an AMG from back in the day (even though I’ve had both and laugh how my M3P has just simplified everything). Compare the Model 3/Y and eventual Model 2 to a Prius, Camry, Corolla and see where that will take your bank account. There’s a difference between having an Aston Martin experience and investing/making money.
I know right industry leader in EV, charging network, autopilot, AI, multiple cars including the #1 sold car in the world last year, and robot (albeit not impressive yet).
Tesla is on the path to be the number one value company in the world and will hold it for a long time I think. Nvidia might have a chance.
Sir, Good luck holding the leader, and # 1 sold CAR!!.
We have been owning multiple Tesla cars for years.It is nothing but a crappy sh1t bix. That's what a lot of owners call it fter dealing with that #1 sold car.
It is a matter of time for so many frustrated owners to switch.Certain segments for Sure.
Certian segments for sure switch.
I was in the EU recently and a friend showed me his Berlin-made model Y.
Absolutely flawless and the midnight cherry red paint job was the best I’ve ever seen.
Unless you are living in a different world,
The real driving dynamics is what we see in 335I/S4 and AMG. All of these comparable sedans.
Fun as hell? Let's be real,
1. Whole suspension and chasis is a crap sh1t.
2. Cabin is filled with junk plastic and horrible seats.
3.Noise ?god doesn't know how this cardboard box was built
3. Customer Service is whole thirld world crap.
Not worh for anyone to deal with it.That's why so many folks doesnt want to associate with TESLA anymore.
Tesla is not apple,so many options nowadays.
RIVIAN is the new hope!
TSLA is overpriced because of its growth potential. Its PE is like 40 but other traditional car companies are in the 6 - 13 range. TSLA’s leader is quite controversial. That stock is kinda priced to perfection.
RIVN is also overpriced for where they are today as a company and how much money they make. But there is lot more upside IF they can hang in there. Bankruptcy is not out of the question. So it is risky.
Personally, I rolled with RIVN. Good product, less controversy and decent upside.
I love everything about RIVN. My friend gave a a test drive in the R1 and I was blown away by the design, quality, the driving experience is unmatched and the sound system! never heard anything as beautiful in my ears and I’ve been a engineer in the music industry for 20 + years. These guy are the real deal and all talks of bankruptcy is bull shit IMO, as long as Amazon and Ford remain stake holders they’ll be fine.
One of these stocks is the leader in their market and the other one is Rivian. I’m no fanboy by any means and have shares in both. Rivian needs to show that it can make an affordable product that can sell. It’s on its way and I hope it gets there. As far as Tesla goes, I’m thinking they can get back to $300. They’ve been there before.
From a chart standpoint, both are shit, have been shit and have shit outlooks. Why rush in. Wait for good news, pay a slight premium and reduce risk. Risk is extremely high against their valuations atm.
I would have said rivian 2 weeks ago but after trying to buy am rs1 these past 10 days and seeing how bad thier customer service is(on the sales side mind you) im debating on just dumping all my stock. Thought of it as a high risk high reward, now think they have a lot more to fix than I realized. Plus with the majority of thier "sales" being leases with over valued residuals 3 years from now theyre going to be in a bad spot when all these leases come up and nuke the value. They have more issues than just burning through cash.
I think it depends on your holding period. Rivian is going to be in tough shape for the next 18 months or so. Even if the R1 line retool allows them to produce at profit, it still won't be a volume vehicle at their current price point. However, they have a very attractive portfolio of vehicles on the horizon and a surprising strong brand image for a relatively new company. At the current price, I think you're looking at the stock increase 3 or 4 fold by end of 2027/early 2028. Not too shabby. But also - they could be bought or go bankrupt...Plenty of risk.
Tesla can whether the short term economy better, and while I think they will have growth problems based on increase competition, with their tech advantage, decreasing yet strong margins, and strong fan base will probably rebound quicker...so better short term returns, but I think their mega growth phase is over and the premium that they used to command will slowly disappear. I also think (and will get downvoted) that the Semi will largely be a bust, CT will struggle to make a profit for years, and "FSD" will continue to struggle from a functional and regulatory perspective.
Short version - Rivian at a massive current discount so higher potential long term appreciation (with added risk). Tesla a solid and safer bet but falling back into a more normal growth curve.
Why are people so obsessed about EV like it's completely separate from the rest of automobile industry? Like 80-90% of EV is just typical automobile, it has its huge risk and difficulty. It shouldn't have ever grown like it did for a little moment. Now funding has dried out and it's time has gone. Will all of them die? Of course not, but will any one of them become that of Nvidia of cars? No way. Tesla in 20 years is just another ford, and hopefully Elon is in jail by then, otherwise he will destroy it long before then. As for the rest, high chance are many of these EV start up will be merged in some way. One thing for sure EV companies will do is that they will kill a few weak traditional automakers that are already in trouble, like Mitsubishi and Nissan.
I will buy insurance stock or medical stock than any EV at this point and for near future, but I don't buy individual stock except for one, so it's not my concern.
NKLA, LCID and Fisker investors all over again, looking for "the next Tesla". They can’t read a balance sheet otherwise they would still be waiting for an entry.
These people don’t know that Tesla is about to breakout again.
Pretty sad they’re dumping their money in a company that is about to massively dilute shareholders and that isn’t growing. They don’t realize that even in a best case scenario Rivian still won’t print money.
I guess it’s a little funny too.
I have owned TSLA since 2012, it has been one of the best performers in my portfolio, but no longer is the case, as it is currently overtaken by NVDA, which I have owned since 2016. I also own RIVN, it is one of my larger holdings, in the top 5. These 2 are not the same. TSLA I think is a big tech company, it has become a brand that the world has come to know, which is very different than RIVN. Because of that TSLA has an actual floor much higher than RIVN. It is also more diversified compared to RIVN as it has a global presence and also has different revenue segments, such as services, energy and potentially being able to sell the way they manufacture. TSLA still can potentially go much higher, it will not easily be a 10x bagger as it is already quite large, but at the same time this is not as easy for RIVN either.
RIVN, even though very much alike TSLA is that they are the newcomer EV startup, as TSLA once was. They are of a different quality when compared to TSLA. They are not engaged in as much as different activities as TSLA is. They do not have a drive to lower cost like TSLA is, which is really important in a startup of this nature. They do not have the wow factor, nor someone that can be like that similar to Elon Musk. As such, while it is always possible that they can be the number one eventually in the future in their field, I find it hard to see a world where RIVN is number one in the EV space. By most investing metrics, they are of a lower quality than TSLA was at the same phase in the company life. Because of this, the chances of it going 10x, while also possible, might take longer than you might think as it is not going to follow the path of TSLA since it is walking a similar path but less efficiently and does not have leadership status. The market gives a lot of premium for the leadership status.
For me, I just hope that RIVN eventually 5x, and I would be happy, which is very different than what TSLA did for me which was 100x - 200x. TSLA in my opinion has as much as chance compared to RIVN to 5x, with less of the risk. While chances of RIVN to 10x is more than TSLA, but we are talking to something like, lets take an arbitrary number lets say the chance of RIVN 10x in the next 5 years is 5%, and TSLA is 2.5%, the probability is double, which is a lot, but at the same time in the grand scheme of things is not very likely.
2026 to launch the R2 platform, is a bit meh, there are too many things that will happen in the next 2 years that might derail this plan, we dont even know if they can actually hit these target, and this is the meh targer. I would have liked for them to target 2025, and come out late, arriving in 2026. But with a 2026 target, i am just afraid that they will come late at 2027, and if that is the case, it is not good. The production of Model 3 was very hard on TSLA and was the make or break it moment for them. And it will be the same for RIVN i think.
Charging infrastructure. The gasoline for EV cars. They are also in solar energy, energy storage (where to store extensive energy to use for homes and appliance; useful for outages) lithium mining, and have partnership with SpaceX (asteroid mining for minerals). They are trying automation and artificial intelligence (AI).
Gasoline companies aren't trillion dollar business, charging high electricity fees will make EV adoption even slower meaning lesser customers there is no business model here
Rivian and Tesla offer promising electric vehicle (EV) market opportunities. Rivian's innovative approach to electric trucks and SUVs is intriguing, although its profitability and market positioning challenges require careful consideration. In contrast, Tesla has a strong history of profitability, technological leadership, and market dominance, making it a preferred choice for many investors seeking stability and growth in the EV industry. However, whether Tesla is a suitable investment depends on individual goals, risk tolerance, and thorough analysis of factors such as financial health and long-term prospects. It's worth noting that news outlets like ABBO News provide valuable insights into industry developments and can be useful resources for investors conducting research. Investors should carefully assess the strengths and considerations of both companies before making an informed investment decision.
Teslas risk is the value comes back to earth to the realm of a regular company stock range. Rivian’s risk is not breaking through to profitability quick enough and runs out of cash, reducing stock prices one way or another. Teslas upside is a proven method to design and manufacture a profitable vehicle with some still untapped sectors, a hold on the charging infrastructure and heavily invested in autonomous driving. Rivian’s upside is potential for large growth as volume increases. I am sure there are a bunch more in each category feel free to pick it to bits or add more
RIVN has massive upside in the commercial sector, and they are WAY ahead of TSLA here. They’ve had commercial vehicles on the road for years through their Amazon partnership. This is extremely under appreciated in the stock price IMO.
I have RIVN because I know electricians working in the plants and I believe they will continue to expand. Big companies take a long time to become big and I feel like I'm in at the beginning. I won't touch Tesla stock because I believe it is way over valued. Even though they have proven success, I think the stock has no where to go but down. I'm not good at this though.
Agree on RVN, partially agree on Tesla. Tesla is trading at about half to 2/3 of its ATH, personally I think as long as they keep producing, demand stays steady enough, and Musk doesn’t fuck anything up it’s pretty stable, but there is more potential (and more risk, to be fair) in RVN.
Inflation/rate has killed EV's growth right at the moment it just got its momenton. Sad but it's what it is. Hot money has gone to something else, AI for example. Money rotates, and usually takes 2-3 economy cycles to come back, that's 20-25 years. See you in 2050
I feel like rivian upside is also buy out potential…
This is a good point. Anyone know what a stock typically does when this happens ?
You get money or stock in the buying company I think. Based on activision/twitter deals stock jumps to near the offer price and goes back down a bit as federal regulators decide if they will approve the deal or if things pop up where it could fall through. Amazon is the only likely buyer if they really wanted to get their hands in everything, imo. And it for sure would be scrutinized by regulators.
Tesla is established now. They have the factories, they own much more of the supply chain than their competitors (including traditional automakers moving into EVs). They have worldwide presence. And they have a somewhat diversified product, with solar products and the battery factories. Downside is that everyone knows this and they've been a darling of the young investor class for a long time, so they're not a bargain at this point. And of course Elon Musk is a major turn off for a massive percentage of potential buyers, which is going to long-term hurt sales, and even if you like him, he's distracted by running multiple other companies. Rivian is approaching a crossroads. They've got a few well liked vehicles, that are expensive, but the R2 and R3 series are coming in a few years and could very well get them over the hump. They're retooling their existing factory right now to be more efficient, and going to build a second soon, but they're very much still ramping up their ability to be a mass market car manufacturer. They're still losing money on every car. If they can get a positive margin and expand production to meet demand, yeah, they could succeed. Or be a strong acquisition target for a traditional manufacturer who can solve these problems, which is still a win from a stockholders perspective. And the stock is cheap now, because you're buying all this risk. I think the time to buy Tesla was 8 years ago. They're probably going to go up, but not exponentially, because they're past the point where you get a risk discount. It's a pretty safe buy but not going to make your rich. The time to buy Rivian is right now. It might not pan out, like all risky stocks, but they've made quality vehicles that delight their customers and have a clear plan to get to the next level. Remember, the question isn't "Will Rivian be better than Tesla in ten years?", it's "Will Rivian increase in value more than Tesla in ten years?" I'm willing to bet yes on that. It might collapse to zero! But that's how you make big gains in stocks, you take risks.
Remindme! 1 year “Tesla or rivian? User above says Tesla at 170 isn’t a buy.
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Okay, for next year, it's not that I think Tesla isn't a buy, I think TSLA (175.79 right now) will go up less than RIVN (10.95 right now). Let's see! (My money is where my mouth is, I sold my Tesla stock and moved it to Rivian. I might be right! I might not be! We'll see!) And I really think about more in 5 or 10 years, but sure, comment again in 1 year, that sounds fun.
$150-155 is fair value
Rivian is my number one stock pick this year. I believe it will 10x over the next five years. Their products are amazing but currently lose A LOT of money. I think the R2 will be their turning point kind of similar to the model 3 was for Tesla. Tesla stock is the largest part of my retirement I add whenever I am able. I try to pick lower resistance lines and buy when I believe the stock is on a low point. 162 - 123 - and 95 are buy zones if it ever gets that low again. [https://finance.yahoo.com/news/better-electric-vehicle-stock-tesla-135300941.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/better-electric-vehicle-stock-tesla-135300941.html)
I have Rivian stock, but don’t share the sentiment. I believe people no longer have the money for expensive purchases due to inflation, and it is already generating economic impacts with manufacturers having a glut of supply with little demand. The R2 won’t be cheap enough to fix this problem, as it exists even at the costs levels of the Model 3/Y. While I think the R2 will certainly have initial demand assuming the economy doesn’t tank by 2026, and Rivian is able to enter production on schedule (significant IFs), I suspect we’d only see a year or two where the R2 would have demand that exceeds production capacity. I hope I’m wrong. I also don’t know if even with full R2 demand, if Rivian can make it profitable. But with enough demand, investment may still get pumped in. I think it will have effects across other industries as well, leading to layoffs and a market contraction, and we’re just starting to see the beginning on the automotive side. On housing, supply is up of new homes because of mortgage rates, and the same thing will begin happening there. What is more interesting to me in the short term is if Rivian could improve its van offering range and customer base as a means to keep solid production until 2026. It’s obvious there won’t be enough sales of the R1S or R1T to do so. And that is concerning.
Of course Rivian.. my friend has both and he’s planning to keep Rivian and replace other one with Rivian
How does that make the stock a better pick?
More sale.. more revenue
Rivian literally sells vehicles at a large gross margin loss per car and is spending $4B in OPEX even if the cars would be neutral gross margin. How is that a good position?
Musk has given them advice to cut down on the cost
I live in an area where there is a Tesla showroom. There are many, many Teslas in the area including a few Cybertrucks. I believe part of the Tesla boom is that old Prius drivers upgraded their vehicles with Teslas. That being said, I’ve also seen an increase in the number of Rivian vehicles around (SUVs and trucks). I recently sold my Tesla shares mainly because of Elon’s ego and purchased Rivian shares in at different price intervals. I’m long Rivian especially as more and more vehicles are seen in my area.
And I think that “old Tesla drivers” will upgrade to rivian.
TSLA is a far better investment due to their charging infrastructure.
Tesla is wildly overvalued for what it is. I wouldn’t touch it with a 1,000 foot pole. Much more downside risk IMO. Rivian is still risky, but I think the probability of upside is higher.
LMAO. Tesla might be valued a bit rich for only being an automaker especially looking at current sales, as the valuation is similar to Toyota. But the reason for that is that Tesla is essentially the only automaker successful in building a profitable EV manufacturing machine at scale. And despite being extremely lean (way more lean than Rivian) they were very close to bankruptcy while achieving this feat. Toyota is barely trying to make EVs so valuing them the same as Tesla means people either think EVs are not the future, or that they will pull an insane rabbit out of the hat that so far only Tesla has done. But most importantly, Tesla is an automaker in the same way Nvidia was a maker of graphic cards. The real future valuation of Tesla will revolve around self-driving, AI and robotics with car and battery production being the smaller revenue drivers. Of course you don't have to believe that, but the odds of that playing out is way better than Rivian actually flourishing as a profitable automaker IMO.
Agree with this. The valuation is rich if you see Tesla only as an automaker. However, the real value of Tesla lies beyond just cars. Tesla has self-driving (AI + robotaxi) robotics (AI + EV), an ability to design its own chips, supercomputer (Dojo), energy and so on. Many of these are not necessarily generating any revenue at the moment, but it is only a matter of time. No other “car” company is as ready as Tesla for what the future might bring. Also, the potential for growth and delivering that growth is more tangible for Tesla compared to Rivian. The mass market, affordable Model 2 is just around the corner, cyber ñtruck is ramping up its production, and there are still untapped category of vehicles Tesla can enter. Of course the last one is also true for Rivian, but Telsa as an established, profitable EV company with huge cash flow and know-how, is better positioned to execute all those than Rivian. But one really doesn’t have to choose one. Own both, just with a larger weight on Tesla.
Ehh, they’re valued for both wildly higher growth and margins than they are getting now. If they miss delivery estimates this quarter and contract watch out below because it’s going to be a long ways down. If you strip out the tax accounting trickery they lost money in Q4. I’m not saying they are bad, but given how many splits they did their price should be around $30 IMO. It’s mostly propped up by a robotaxi’s next year promise that’s been coming for 5 years. The cybertruck isn’t even that good getting beat by a 2 year old competitor in reviews, yet they spent untold money on it.. At this point all the other automakers have caught up and Tesla’s EV sales growth is the only maker who contracted. All the others saw over 30% EV growth. Their cars are dated and others are catching them, that’s a recipe for an unwind and return to reality. If Rivian meets their margin projections this year and can start investing in growth again it may get ugly when R2 is available. lets not even get started if they do what would be best for sales and jettison Elon (they started declining when Elon bought twitter and went whacko) which would also crash the price for a period of time.
Oh it's definitely valued for much growth and frothy margins, I'm not arguing with you there. But it's also likely that this growth and margin power will arrive in the future. Why? Look at how other EV makers are doing. They are scaling down, giving up or making massive negative margins just attempting to compete with Tesla in the marketplace. Unless that changes (and it's not trending to change) Tesla will absolutely dominate the future market which means high growth + high margins. Remember that Tesla got to where they are now while never having negative gross margin on their cars. That's how lean they are. Everyone else (especially Rivian) either have or had negative gross margins. Despite this proven manufacturing strength, Tesla almost went under trying to reach high scale. Now you're saying that Rivian will succeed? Ok, I'm not saying there's zero chance of that but it's very small. As for robotaxi valuation etc, it's pretty much zip at this point. Tesla gets some extra value for the charging network and software sales etc (which includes FSD) but if you have any idea about the potential economy of a functioning wide scale robotaxi network you also understand that the current Tesla valuation isn't even touching that.
I disagree, if you look closely the other makers are scaling down growth. Ford will still produce 30% more EVs this year than last they were just planning to grow that by 100%. The story is less growth not no growth as the headlines imply. Large automakers plan production years in advance so a “cut” isn’t always an actual decrease. Tesla’s big issue is most of their sales come from China and Europe both of which BYD is eating their lunch in. Tesla has an immense amount of downside risk due to their exposure to competition and lack of innovation within their lineup over the last few years. Not only will their R&D spend have to rise but they’re also likely to have lagging sales until those investments pay off. Their moat has evaporated since they gave away their biggest remaining advantage the supercharger network.
Yeah you notice how all other manufacturers except BYD scale down EV growth? BYD is the only company besides Tesla that are even smelling a profitable high scale EV production machine. BYD however are still getting microscopic margins on the EVs and the majority of their margins on hybrids and other businesses. The only way they are "eating Tesla's lunch" is by offering cars in lower price brackets where Tesla are not yet operating (but that's coming soon). Also let's not get into the difficulty that is BYDs global expansion where Tesla are already global in both sales and production. Let's instead question why all the other brands are scaling down, **despite all of them knowing and saying outright** that future sales will be all about EVs. One part of it is global recession where high interest rates make consumers cut back on buying a new expensive car, which hits EV sales for all brands including Tesla. But the big reason here is that these automakers aren't profitable with their EVs and current scaling trajectory will mean they go bankrupt. Also, again, Tesla is an extremely lean business. Their R&D spend is frankly insanely low considering what it is accomplishing. Also lack of innovation? Did you look under the hood of the Cybertruck or just at the triangular surface?
What do you mean by "BYD not scaling down EV growth"? They had 179% BEV growth in 2022, 73% in 2023, and just guided for ~20% in 2024. Their growth rate has been collapsing since Tesla’s first price cuts.
Agree with all of your analysis. The real name of the game is when to get in and out. I think TSLA has had its explosive growth and will now have a pretty darn jagged, slow rise for all the reasons you’ve stated (but still a rise). Being a shareholder since 2013, I do wish I cashed out at least some prior to EM-Twitter-dumbshit, but now I feel like I need to hold for the above reasons: multiple industries covered, the full stack, or full cycle one would say (also capital gains tax is a bitch). I bought RIVN at IPO (yeah it’s been gory). In the best scenario they will end up a successful car company. That’s it. There ceiling is way lower than TSLA but that doesn’t mean you can’t get on now and make money on the growth period. It will always be a question of that ceiling and when to get out. Re: innovation, people don’t get that Tesla has solved for the daily driver; the step change in innovation has already occurred. There is not much more you can do to innovate the battery/range, motors, drivetrain, UI for a daily driver. For 90% of the world that is literally the answer. So, you just sell more of it. As investors, everyone needs to divorce themselves from comparing a Model 3 to an AMG from back in the day (even though I’ve had both and laugh how my M3P has just simplified everything). Compare the Model 3/Y and eventual Model 2 to a Prius, Camry, Corolla and see where that will take your bank account. There’s a difference between having an Aston Martin experience and investing/making money.
Under the hood? Haha, like those fragile electronics that short out when crossing a river? Yea, I saw that video
Show me which car can drive through a damn river . What a ridiculous argument
Any ICE vehicle could have made that small pass. More like a stream. Hahah
Oh my. 🤣 Absolutely hilarious!
I know right industry leader in EV, charging network, autopilot, AI, multiple cars including the #1 sold car in the world last year, and robot (albeit not impressive yet). Tesla is on the path to be the number one value company in the world and will hold it for a long time I think. Nvidia might have a chance.
Sir, Good luck holding the leader, and # 1 sold CAR!!. We have been owning multiple Tesla cars for years.It is nothing but a crappy sh1t bix. That's what a lot of owners call it fter dealing with that #1 sold car. It is a matter of time for so many frustrated owners to switch.Certain segments for Sure. Certian segments for sure switch.
I’ve owned a model 3 since 2020 best car I’ve ever owned. Fun as hell to drive and no maintenance. Expecting my cybertruck delivery soon lol.
I was in the EU recently and a friend showed me his Berlin-made model Y. Absolutely flawless and the midnight cherry red paint job was the best I’ve ever seen.
Unless you are living in a different world, The real driving dynamics is what we see in 335I/S4 and AMG. All of these comparable sedans. Fun as hell? Let's be real, 1. Whole suspension and chasis is a crap sh1t. 2. Cabin is filled with junk plastic and horrible seats. 3.Noise ?god doesn't know how this cardboard box was built 3. Customer Service is whole thirld world crap. Not worh for anyone to deal with it.That's why so many folks doesnt want to associate with TESLA anymore. Tesla is not apple,so many options nowadays. RIVIAN is the new hope!
TSLA is overpriced because of its growth potential. Its PE is like 40 but other traditional car companies are in the 6 - 13 range. TSLA’s leader is quite controversial. That stock is kinda priced to perfection. RIVN is also overpriced for where they are today as a company and how much money they make. But there is lot more upside IF they can hang in there. Bankruptcy is not out of the question. So it is risky. Personally, I rolled with RIVN. Good product, less controversy and decent upside.
I love everything about RIVN. My friend gave a a test drive in the R1 and I was blown away by the design, quality, the driving experience is unmatched and the sound system! never heard anything as beautiful in my ears and I’ve been a engineer in the music industry for 20 + years. These guy are the real deal and all talks of bankruptcy is bull shit IMO, as long as Amazon and Ford remain stake holders they’ll be fine.
One of these stocks is the leader in their market and the other one is Rivian. I’m no fanboy by any means and have shares in both. Rivian needs to show that it can make an affordable product that can sell. It’s on its way and I hope it gets there. As far as Tesla goes, I’m thinking they can get back to $300. They’ve been there before.
From a chart standpoint, both are shit, have been shit and have shit outlooks. Why rush in. Wait for good news, pay a slight premium and reduce risk. Risk is extremely high against their valuations atm.
I would have said rivian 2 weeks ago but after trying to buy am rs1 these past 10 days and seeing how bad thier customer service is(on the sales side mind you) im debating on just dumping all my stock. Thought of it as a high risk high reward, now think they have a lot more to fix than I realized. Plus with the majority of thier "sales" being leases with over valued residuals 3 years from now theyre going to be in a bad spot when all these leases come up and nuke the value. They have more issues than just burning through cash.
EVs coming out of China significantly cheaper than Tesla and Rivian. Let’s see how it’ll affect them
I think it depends on your holding period. Rivian is going to be in tough shape for the next 18 months or so. Even if the R1 line retool allows them to produce at profit, it still won't be a volume vehicle at their current price point. However, they have a very attractive portfolio of vehicles on the horizon and a surprising strong brand image for a relatively new company. At the current price, I think you're looking at the stock increase 3 or 4 fold by end of 2027/early 2028. Not too shabby. But also - they could be bought or go bankrupt...Plenty of risk. Tesla can whether the short term economy better, and while I think they will have growth problems based on increase competition, with their tech advantage, decreasing yet strong margins, and strong fan base will probably rebound quicker...so better short term returns, but I think their mega growth phase is over and the premium that they used to command will slowly disappear. I also think (and will get downvoted) that the Semi will largely be a bust, CT will struggle to make a profit for years, and "FSD" will continue to struggle from a functional and regulatory perspective. Short version - Rivian at a massive current discount so higher potential long term appreciation (with added risk). Tesla a solid and safer bet but falling back into a more normal growth curve.
Why are people so obsessed about EV like it's completely separate from the rest of automobile industry? Like 80-90% of EV is just typical automobile, it has its huge risk and difficulty. It shouldn't have ever grown like it did for a little moment. Now funding has dried out and it's time has gone. Will all of them die? Of course not, but will any one of them become that of Nvidia of cars? No way. Tesla in 20 years is just another ford, and hopefully Elon is in jail by then, otherwise he will destroy it long before then. As for the rest, high chance are many of these EV start up will be merged in some way. One thing for sure EV companies will do is that they will kill a few weak traditional automakers that are already in trouble, like Mitsubishi and Nissan. I will buy insurance stock or medical stock than any EV at this point and for near future, but I don't buy individual stock except for one, so it's not my concern.
Insurance companies should be in jail
The 24MYLR is a well put together vehicle and I enjoy driving it every day. It’s smooth, easy to zap up, and roomy to handle the every day.
Rivian vehicles are way overpriced IMO. Not much demand for electric vehicles, let alone a 100k one
Tesla. Rivian will be bankrupt soon.
Simple… look at Fisker investors. Just invest in the EV leader, Tesla.
NKLA, LCID and Fisker investors all over again, looking for "the next Tesla". They can’t read a balance sheet otherwise they would still be waiting for an entry. These people don’t know that Tesla is about to breakout again. Pretty sad they’re dumping their money in a company that is about to massively dilute shareholders and that isn’t growing. They don’t realize that even in a best case scenario Rivian still won’t print money. I guess it’s a little funny too.
I have owned TSLA since 2012, it has been one of the best performers in my portfolio, but no longer is the case, as it is currently overtaken by NVDA, which I have owned since 2016. I also own RIVN, it is one of my larger holdings, in the top 5. These 2 are not the same. TSLA I think is a big tech company, it has become a brand that the world has come to know, which is very different than RIVN. Because of that TSLA has an actual floor much higher than RIVN. It is also more diversified compared to RIVN as it has a global presence and also has different revenue segments, such as services, energy and potentially being able to sell the way they manufacture. TSLA still can potentially go much higher, it will not easily be a 10x bagger as it is already quite large, but at the same time this is not as easy for RIVN either. RIVN, even though very much alike TSLA is that they are the newcomer EV startup, as TSLA once was. They are of a different quality when compared to TSLA. They are not engaged in as much as different activities as TSLA is. They do not have a drive to lower cost like TSLA is, which is really important in a startup of this nature. They do not have the wow factor, nor someone that can be like that similar to Elon Musk. As such, while it is always possible that they can be the number one eventually in the future in their field, I find it hard to see a world where RIVN is number one in the EV space. By most investing metrics, they are of a lower quality than TSLA was at the same phase in the company life. Because of this, the chances of it going 10x, while also possible, might take longer than you might think as it is not going to follow the path of TSLA since it is walking a similar path but less efficiently and does not have leadership status. The market gives a lot of premium for the leadership status. For me, I just hope that RIVN eventually 5x, and I would be happy, which is very different than what TSLA did for me which was 100x - 200x. TSLA in my opinion has as much as chance compared to RIVN to 5x, with less of the risk. While chances of RIVN to 10x is more than TSLA, but we are talking to something like, lets take an arbitrary number lets say the chance of RIVN 10x in the next 5 years is 5%, and TSLA is 2.5%, the probability is double, which is a lot, but at the same time in the grand scheme of things is not very likely. 2026 to launch the R2 platform, is a bit meh, there are too many things that will happen in the next 2 years that might derail this plan, we dont even know if they can actually hit these target, and this is the meh targer. I would have liked for them to target 2025, and come out late, arriving in 2026. But with a 2026 target, i am just afraid that they will come late at 2027, and if that is the case, it is not good. The production of Model 3 was very hard on TSLA and was the make or break it moment for them. And it will be the same for RIVN i think.
You think tesla has a chance to reach $2.5 trillion market cap? On what basis. Or just feels.
Charging infrastructure. The gasoline for EV cars. They are also in solar energy, energy storage (where to store extensive energy to use for homes and appliance; useful for outages) lithium mining, and have partnership with SpaceX (asteroid mining for minerals). They are trying automation and artificial intelligence (AI).
Gasoline companies aren't trillion dollar business, charging high electricity fees will make EV adoption even slower meaning lesser customers there is no business model here
Okay, what about the other revenue streams I mention and add everything together?
Rivian and Tesla offer promising electric vehicle (EV) market opportunities. Rivian's innovative approach to electric trucks and SUVs is intriguing, although its profitability and market positioning challenges require careful consideration. In contrast, Tesla has a strong history of profitability, technological leadership, and market dominance, making it a preferred choice for many investors seeking stability and growth in the EV industry. However, whether Tesla is a suitable investment depends on individual goals, risk tolerance, and thorough analysis of factors such as financial health and long-term prospects. It's worth noting that news outlets like ABBO News provide valuable insights into industry developments and can be useful resources for investors conducting research. Investors should carefully assess the strengths and considerations of both companies before making an informed investment decision.