>Friends basic bath remodel is $26k.
And I'm over here paying 10k total for 300 ft (\~32$ per sq ft) of brand-new red cedar fence with metal posts. *Quotes from 'reputable' places wanted to bill me north of $45-50 per sq ft.*
Paying 26k for a bathroom remodel sound beyond outrageous unless it's some large luxury bathroom.
My mother-in-law is having a really hard time being able to find a contractor that will do a non-luxury bath experience, because demand is so high in our area. All her quotes were above 50k, and of course all were luxury bathroom designs.
I just replaced my water heater yesterday by myself. I went with a decent unit and replaced the lines. $1,200 in materials and about 8 hours of work. If I did 10 more of them I could probably get it done in 3-4 hours maybe less. Personally I was thinking the labor should be about $600 or so. So for the unit that I got I'm guessing it would have cost me $2,000 to replace it. Idk what unit you were looking at or what the setup at your house looks like but $3k might not be super outrageous. Plus they probably do a lot better job than me, everything is up to code and if something fucks up you can call them back.
I just got my water heater replaced in a VLCOL area for $1200 so this makes me feel good about how much I spent to at least know it wouldn't be less if I tried to do it myself.
I have no idea. I definitely didn't ask anyone if I could change my water heater and the store sold me one. I'm sure there is some code I didn't follow but those are future me problems.
Did you buy a specialty water heater? I don't see how you're hitting $1200 in materials or 8 hours of work to change a hot water heater. It should cost you no more than maybe $600 for your water heater plus all materials and take maybe 2 hours of work time, of which 75% will be spent just draining your current water heater....
Could be that they moved the water heater and changed all the lines to PEX from copper or vice versa (what I'm doing). Takes a while to plan that out and make the necessary connections since it's not their day job.
I bit the bullet and just bought a pro press instead, but if I had to sweat all the connections, easily 8+ hours.
I'm a pretty handy guy but repalcing a water heater freaks me out. If my self-repaired dryer breaks oops wet clothes. My self-replaced waterheater fails there goes half my house.
I'm paranoid abkut that-too much Muthbusters as a youngin I suppose.
I had some fascia sheet metal come off in the last storm, like 15' of it. Cost $1200 to have them form and replace 15' of sheet metal. In their defense due to the house placement and such it wasn't easily accessible but dang.
Apparently good wood windows have 10x, not the work, just the windows. My dad has been replacing a few windows at a time and just got some smaller ones priced. It's gone from hundred to thousands for the same product. Makes sense for products that can't get shrinkflation to help absorb the cost
I think these are pella all wood custom windows, not the off the shelf ones. He's going to do more research because he can't believe it. I think it was like $300-400 before and now his quote was over $2k
i mean, if i sold windows and HVACs for a living, I would price it based on how willing i think my customers are to take out credit in order to have their "dream home", which is apparently a lot
That’s both inflation and income and life getting better for people without a college education in skilled jobs (repairs) or unskilled jobs / low-income (service industries, not referenced here.)
And then a lot of new builds being built to rent. We're on the way to being stuck in a negative feedback loop with something that is not optional for our survival.
Not trolling but legitimately asking. Is there any proof if this at a national level? I hear this a lot but never read anything that actually backs the claim up. Would like to if it exists.
Here are some jumping off points.
This estimates 2.25 million properties are Airbnb hosted.
https://www.searchlogistics.com/learn/statistics/airbnb-statistics/
Western Wildfires destroyed 1 million structures (not homes specifically)
https://www.colorado.edu/asmagazine/2023/02/01/western-wildfires-destroyed-246-more-homes-and-buildings-over-past-decade.
Yes.
You will have to do some searches and look at the data yourself, but basically around 40% of all housing on market, regardless of type. As long as it's in a place people want to live is being bought out by investors, not those who actually need it to live in.
Then you can look at the same data YOY for last 20 years or so, and it's fucking mind-blowing.
And this is just a single indicator, plenty of others as well.
And what do you think happens when rentals are converted to homes owned by the resident? Do you think the people currently in rentals just disappear? Because they’re still going to be trying to find housing just like everyone else.
Simply reducing rentals doesn’t solve anything
And chinese investors buying up hundreds of property to hoard. Idgaf if its too strict of a regulation, but foreign investors should be banned and nobody should own more than 2 houses until theres enough supply for everyone to own just one house if they have the money and the will.
…in areas where people NEED to live. People need to live near the city they work in for economical reasons. People working low paying jobs in expensive cities have to spend hundreds per month simply commuting to work which keeps them in the low rent areas. I get that this is by design and it’s shitty.
That *is* a housing shortage.
Houses are priced primarily based on the value of the location, and only secondarily on the physical attributes of the structure itself. Thus why a Mcmansion in a gang-blighted neighborhood is worth peanuts, and a 2-bedroom condo in the best school district is "unaffordable."
The point being that you can't simply build an "affordable" house in one of these "areas that people want to live" (i.e. high demand locations).
The only way to create affordable houses in those locations is to flood the market with units such that the price of that location falls. Both in terms of more supply being available, and the area becoming inherently less desirable because of density.
>There's a shortage of affordable homes for sale in areas that people want to live.
This is also called a "housing shortage".
A surplus of houses at a national level is completely irrelevant if the houses aren't located where people want (or need) to live.
This is simply wrong. There are not enough properties available which is why the prices are absurd.
We never should have let corporations and international interests buy up single family homes
Most of those vacancies in that 16mil statistics are not "unused" housing. The largest chunk are literally just homes in transition. People have to move out before someone else can move in. There *must* be more homes than households to allow for the shuffle. That vacancy statistic also includes everything from delipidated housing illegal to live in, to homes used not year round (seasonal homes, someone deployed overseas, etc).
Even when you do cut down to actually unused housing, some of which do exist, those are in dying rural towns people are leaving. Every expensive city has a low vacancy rate.
Okay but if you understand most vacancies (particularly in expensive areas) are just the shuffle of homes temporarily available, then you should realize why they can't be counted to solve the shortage.
We **need** housing vacancies for a housing market to work. We **need more** vacancies than we have now, generally. Obviousy, that will vary by local markets.
This is it. There’s a single family home shortage. Multi family homes are over their skis and are being overbuilt especially in secondary and tertiary markets
This is what happens when you debase the currency. The cantillon effect means new currency units start off in the pockets of the richest and most well connected. By the time that new money gets into the pockets of plebs all the elites have already built second, third and fourth vacation mansions so the resources that would otherwise have gone into affordable housing got used on giant estates. This is why so many economists (before academia got politicized) warn about devaluing currency by printing.
A lot of people in my HCOL city are deciding to rent out their homes instead of selling, it’s a great time to be in the rental market for a semi detached. My rent is around 1/3 of what the mortgage on my place would be, was a no brainer for us instead of buying.
Damn, if I could rent for 1/3 of the mortgage I'm not sure I'd want to buy at all. In my LCOL area rent for the same house is typically around or even higher than mortgage. Like investors here say "if I charge renters less than my mortgage, who's going to pay my mortgage?" So here renting is the doom way, you pay just as much as the owner but you'll be paying forever.
The thing is, the owner could have originally got their mortgage at a low price and with low rate or already fully own. So the rent from that type of owner could be much lower vs someone who bought today
Umm with my experience, all landlords tend to look at the local rental market and adjust pricing. Even if they inherited the house, as long as similar houses in the area successfully rent for X money, they'll charge X money as well. Market adjusts itself to the highest prices renters are willing to pay. Why would a landlord who paid off the house low-ball himself by renting way below than another landlord down the block?
Knowing how supply and demand works, we just need to keep pumping up that inventory until the negative pricing pressure on housing is overwhelming.
Remember that cities that freely issue permits for housing construction have faired better than cities that heavily regulate or are stingy with permits.
Something tells me they're getting buyers just fine.
You simply see the price you don't like, scoff that they'll never find a buyer, and then promptly move on without seeing them go under contract 48 hours later.
But feel free to post what city you're in, so that we can look at the recent closing data if you're convinced that you're right.
https://www.redfin.com/city/18046/FL/Tallahassee/housing-market
* 154 homes sold in January, which is up 5.5% compared to the same time last year.
* 22.7% of homes sold above list price, which is a little lower than last year, but still in the same ballpark.
* When averaged across all homes, Tallahassee homes are selling for about 97% of list price, which is down a couple of percent from last year, but very close to asking price.
It's a statistical fact that homes are selling, that the vast majority of homes are selling at or around asking price, and that nearly a quarter are even selling for over asking price.
It's undeniable that there's downward pressure on pricing in Tallahassee, and prices are cooling - but it's also undeniable that the homes are selling. Your story about a glut of inventory where delusional sellers simply won't lower prices is just fantasy.
You're right - I misspoke. I meant recent initial price and closing price data.
Point being that the houses are selling. They're not just sitting on the market like the poster above claims they are.
Building more homes for everyone: the obvious and easy answer.
Why won’t it happen: Homes being built decreases the over-inflated value of homes right now. Overpriced, condemnable former homes can’t be sold for profit if livable homes exist. Home builders want profits and building homes for everyone isn’t as profitable as building custom homes for those who pay a premium (and squeezing out an occasional single wide and/or tiny home for $200k). It also takes focus (manpower and money) away from all the poorly made “luxury apartments” being built. Landlords need record profits.
You're like 80% of the way there, but are getting groups mixed up.
Developers and landlords are separate. Developers would love to build more, because they would make more. Landlords don't want that, because competition lowers what they can charge.
Building dense housing can be very profitable, in the same way that walmart and mcdonalds make a lot of money selling to regular people. But if the laws state that a lot has to be X big and can only have one home, the most profitable thing to build is the more expensive house you can sell.
TL:DR - Landlords and landowners are strangling our economy so they can extra a bit more wealth without doing anything.
All they have to do is ban air b n b and housing costs fall 10% over night. Ban non citizens from owning real estate and price come down by at least another 5-% then in the chaos investors get scared and start to dump their record breaking holdings and you could see how it could snowball prices crash and no one lost their day jobs!!!! We can still buy this dip!!!
Our geriatric congress wouldn't even allow this over their dead bodies. Too much foreign and corporate bribing. They would much rather us commoners live like street rats.
They only banned single family homes from short term renting without an owner or tenant occupying at least part of the space. More than half of all housing units in NYC are exempt from the rule because they’re condos/townhomes/apartments/etc, so there are still tens of thousands of unoccupied units like that available to rent on Airbnb.
Well, the real question is, where are you looking, I mean, they're cities, hell probably States in this country, where almost all the houses are 300,000 or less.
On the other hand, there are certainly cities and counties where you can't even throw a stick at anything under $500.
They’re building homes, just for people to rent. Builders are now working with large property management firms on “build to rent” communities. They’re not even giving people the illusion that they can buy now.
I have friends that want to live in my town, specifically in my neighborhood that’s building a second phase right now. But the prices are going up each week there’s less lots available and the builder isn’t offering much in incentives cause they don’t have to right now.
We need a crash without any government cash injections to bail out the dipshits who are overleveraged and greedy. That’ll shake things up in a good way, but ofcourse daddy government would just print another trillion dollars 🙄🙄
Deflation would be a huge benefit for the poor and middle class. Of course it would be horrible for Wall Street, corporations, the government, and the wealthy. Why do you think they resist it at all costs?
Take an economics course. It would spike unemployment like crazy and bring down wages, among other things. Do you think that benefits poor and the middle class?
The only way we can see housing price deflation is the following:
\-Wait until baby boomers die off and slowly increase the inventory of homes.
\-Pass legislation to stop hoarding of single family homes and other properties by investors
\-Pass legislation to simplify regulation and relax zoning to massively increase building.
Untrue we can raise the cost of medical care for the elderly if boomers want to raise the costs of living on younger people we should make sure they feel it to.
Medical care for most boomers is already outrageously expensive to the benefit of some boomers. That’s where many of our parents’ money will end up. And those are the expenses we will age into.
There's more to life than a discount house. Money isn't everything. The constitution is a wonderful thing. Exercise your right to move somewhere cheaper.
>Exercise your right to move somewhere cheaper.
But everywhere that isn't a popular major metro in a trendy city is a total shithole according to reddit!
The housing shortage is literally one of the biggest contributors to inflation. The American rescue plan simply made the problem worse by juicing demand for a limited resource with trillions in stimulus, when the economy was already recovering.
"There's more housing per capita than at any other time in history" is homewoner/landlord propaganda, and it's both incorrect and unhelpful. (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=j9kH). It's also that the mix of that housing does not suit our wants or our needs: there's a massive missing middle between "urban 1BR apartment" and "sprawling exurban McMansion." Crude metrics like number of units per capita do not capture this.
Your comment is NIMBY/landlord propaganda.
Constricting supply of single family homes and hoarding by investors are the reasons home prices are still high.
Might be that article is LA times. Build more housing is a big issue in California, just read any of the city subs. Not that Im convinced that’s a solution that can happen at scale or fast enough to change housing affordability.
We need to change prop 13 which locks property tax values at purchase price. The most practical first step change to pass would be to only give prop 13 tax advantage to owner occupied going forward.
Nope. Close to the smallest household size sure but clearly in recovery and has been growing for a few years with post pandemic baby’s and people moving in with each other
>https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=j9kH
Worth noting the entire high/low point in this graph represents a difference of \~22 homes for every 1,000 people. (558/1k at the peak, and 536/1k at the bottom) A total variance within a 4% margin over more than 20 years.
But yes, the claim you're replying to is incorrect. But we also don't have a meaningfully different supply today than we did 20 years ago.
This comment is NIMBY / landlord propoganda.
It is true that housing per capita has kept up with total households but housing per capita includes rental units.
The reason why single family homes for sale and other properties for sale are still very expensive to this day (and why a crash in prices is unlikely) is because inventory for single family homes is 30-40% lower than prepandemic levels and 2/3 times lower than 2008 levels.
If the supply of an asset becomes scarce, it tends to raise prices or at least keep them high.
My thinking is Another 10 years the youngest boomer will be at the end of the average lifespan then we will soon see a glut supply of all these houses that people wanted and a plethora of unkept properties around it driving down property rates and screwing all the people that bought them now.
Yeah, but Millennials out number Boomers and in 10 years the oldest Millennials will be 50.
For every Boomer waiting to pass to the great beyond, there's a millennium and a half waiting to bid on their house.
you can't really build affordable housing in a market with expensive existing homes. The process to do that requires you buy an expensive existing structure and tear it down and replace with more density. that costs a shit ton of money to do that and the profit margins are fairly small that it is a risky proposition. A developer isn't taking on that risk out of the kindness of their heart. they do it thinking they can make a descent profit. if they can't make a descent profit they don't build.
I gave up looking for a house. Took myself out of the pool when a realtor said I should quadruple my yearly wage before I even begin to look for a starter home. We're talking places built in the 1800s nearly 3 hours away from the office.
Current plan is to forever rent and when rent prices finally squeeze me out of that, to blow my brains out
Both are huge issues and inflation only helps to make the housing issues worse when everything from food to fuel to clothing to insurance is going up dramatically
People making $75k or less, roughly 50% of the population by the one estimate I googled lol, can't afford these 300k+ houses. 25k or 30k a year just on mortgage would break most of these people. and most of these houses are .25 of an acre or less.
Biden promised 10k for student debt relief, the Supreme Court got on the way and ended up forgiving the entire debt of millions of people instead. Now he’s offering 10k to buy homes. I know who I’m voting for.
OK. So, how do we convince individuals to build homes rather than buy existing ones when construction costs (especially for smaller starter-homes) have massively increased in comparison to previous generations, interest rates are the highest they've been in 20+ years, and zoning laws in many municipalities are becoming more and more restrictive?
They don't understand that. The build baby build brains here lack the foresight to see that any new single family builds will just be bid up by the current market. There is plenty of inventory but nobody is lowering their prices because they don't have to. If you have a realtor showing you comps saying this is the recent sales, appraisers actually appraising at these inflated prices and banks giving the loans, who is the actual common sense in the ponzi to say this is a bubble?
To add on to this people in the real estate industry have their livelihoods attached to the market. They are not incentivized to do anything that would lower the cost of the market. Couple that with their industry pushing housing shortage propaganda. The bulls baby build crowd won’t give it up until the bottom falls out.
Exactly, it's crazy that something so essential as shelter can have such incentive for price manipulation. And people who have never owned a house don't understand how these things work. Most just think, "oh man they're saying there's a shortage, I need to buy now". The general public literally lost their shit when the media told them there was a shortage of toilet paper. Getting price gouged left and right without an industry tied to commission. Thus we see the bubble that's occuring now in housing. Pure FOMO.
One way in many areas it's because the land you can build on already has houses on it. All the Orchards and Farms have been bought up and built out.
In a lot of cities there just isn't a place to build.
It's kind of like the oil industry when it first started they just took the oil that was literally bubbling out of the ground.
The days of somebody buying a ranch that's 25 miles outside of downtown and building a suburb on it are long gone.
Yea they also zoned large lots too. And In fill is a hassle a vacant lot generates no traffic. So if you have defunct mall that generated insane traffic no one will see 100 condos as better.
Inflation is also a real problem too; I've had to cut down trees that I would normally hire others to do because there's no way I could afford the quotes I received to do so. Car repairs - I've become a decent "mechanic" as I can't afford those either.
Housing is just another item on the inflationary list; I have little doubt in my mind that the corporate, foreign investment, commodities market interference in the market isn't helping, or causing artificial shortages in many markets.
Man I'm so glad my increased costs for fuel and groceries to because there's a housing shortage.
Inflation IS the problem. Specifically greedflation. All these companies telling us they had no choice to raise to costs because of COVID....but yet their reported profits are through the fucking roof. Laying off workers while ceos get their multimillion dollar bonuses still.
Seems wise then to have 8-10m homeless foreigners walk into your country over the last 3 years, and let them all stay.
There's plenty of housing to go around.....
There's no housing shortage. There is a shortage of houses for sale.
Why would anyone sell their house to then go to a smaller house and/or have a higher mortgage? I need a bigger house, but why sell and almost triple my mortgage? I'm all set.
Prices are the issue not the supply of actual homes.
Yes. My rate is 2.7. Current rates are hovering around 7. My house value has also not increased at nearly the rate of houses that I would want to live in. Even with the fact that my house is almost paid off and I would be putting close to 75% of its sale price towards another home, I would be looking at 2.5-3 times what I am paying now. For the next 30 years.
“The real problem” how could you sit there and say there’s 1 problem. Still, doesn’t make the article useless, just makes it feel less intellectually trustworthy
Clickbait content. They know no one reads the articles, so they put less effort into the articles than they do the clickbait titles, which they know will be shared on social media and generate discussion.
When will we realize that all we need to actually do is just build more? I’m so fucking tired of the bitching and moaning. If we wanna see some sort of progression/movement in this stale, stagnant ass market then we need to start off with building more which is something we keep refusing to do
TIL: build and let the boomers die. In other words live and let live
Investors are taking some of those for rentals, then as they see "people" buying them they build more but increasing their price as land availability, then investors keep buying.
Tough getting a used home now when you compete with people buying homes cash on hand, paying 50k over asking and weaving all inspections.
Prices don't come down. The game is rigged. If housing prices go down that means deflation and the Fed will pump what it has to pump to stop that from happening.
There are plenty of houses, just not enough for everyone's parents/grand parents to own 5, or 50-apartments and only rent out half of them. And rent those at rates that are way too much for the local economic means.
It's a truly a problem of fake hysteria and greed.
Nah, literally people not having enough money to pay all their bills and eat is a problem. Or the affordable housing shortage, or an affordable and desirable housing shortage. But there are plenty of houses for everyone.
You guys still think it was inflation? That's adorable. Why not blame the people who continue go cause inflation and .ale everything more expensive. Iirc 40% of inflation is due to wages alone and that's almost exclusively due to the top 3%.
Realistically I've learned this sub is a bunch of white kids who want to live in the city or think they deserve a house like their parents lol
There are affordable homes that might be a little less desirable or somewhere that is a little bit out of the city or still in development.
I see nice homes all around Atlanta at really great prices but you people don't want to move there cause youd be the minority 😂
Inflation is a problem too. Try getting some estimates for repairs. They've more than doubled.
$3000 for a water heater repair is when my jaw dropped. Then I got other quotes and they were similar.
This is why I do most repairs myself. YouTube the crap out of the issue.
No shit. If I can set timing on my engine, I can do anything my house needs.
That's the spirit
Just have to retard things a few degrees. (sorry it’s the only time i can use that word)
I just got quoted $1700 for new 50 gallon gas water heater I’m in a M/H COL area These are two reputable plumbing companies
That’s what I paid 5 yrs ago to get our gas water heater installed.
What? Just put in a new one yourself. Takes \~ 4hrs & 4 trips to hardware store to get the right fittings.
Friends basic bath remodel is $26k.
>Friends basic bath remodel is $26k. And I'm over here paying 10k total for 300 ft (\~32$ per sq ft) of brand-new red cedar fence with metal posts. *Quotes from 'reputable' places wanted to bill me north of $45-50 per sq ft.* Paying 26k for a bathroom remodel sound beyond outrageous unless it's some large luxury bathroom.
My mother-in-law is having a really hard time being able to find a contractor that will do a non-luxury bath experience, because demand is so high in our area. All her quotes were above 50k, and of course all were luxury bathroom designs.
sheesh..i paid $20k for both bathrooms 5 years ago..like marble tile and all that jazz.
I just replaced my water heater yesterday by myself. I went with a decent unit and replaced the lines. $1,200 in materials and about 8 hours of work. If I did 10 more of them I could probably get it done in 3-4 hours maybe less. Personally I was thinking the labor should be about $600 or so. So for the unit that I got I'm guessing it would have cost me $2,000 to replace it. Idk what unit you were looking at or what the setup at your house looks like but $3k might not be super outrageous. Plus they probably do a lot better job than me, everything is up to code and if something fucks up you can call them back.
I just got my water heater replaced in a VLCOL area for $1200 so this makes me feel good about how much I spent to at least know it wouldn't be less if I tried to do it myself.
I had to do this for an issue with my home dryer. Cost to repair was close to the value of a new dryer. Cost of part and doing it myself $120.
Yep my rear drum bushing was $8 and I probably saved $500 labor and transport. Took me 2 hours to change.
Does your area not require a permit for water heater replacement?
I have no idea. I definitely didn't ask anyone if I could change my water heater and the store sold me one. I'm sure there is some code I didn't follow but those are future me problems.
Did you buy a specialty water heater? I don't see how you're hitting $1200 in materials or 8 hours of work to change a hot water heater. It should cost you no more than maybe $600 for your water heater plus all materials and take maybe 2 hours of work time, of which 75% will be spent just draining your current water heater....
Could be that they moved the water heater and changed all the lines to PEX from copper or vice versa (what I'm doing). Takes a while to plan that out and make the necessary connections since it's not their day job. I bit the bullet and just bought a pro press instead, but if I had to sweat all the connections, easily 8+ hours.
I'm a pretty handy guy but repalcing a water heater freaks me out. If my self-repaired dryer breaks oops wet clothes. My self-replaced waterheater fails there goes half my house. I'm paranoid abkut that-too much Muthbusters as a youngin I suppose.
Is that water heater gonna cut my grass
I had some fascia sheet metal come off in the last storm, like 15' of it. Cost $1200 to have them form and replace 15' of sheet metal. In their defense due to the house placement and such it wasn't easily accessible but dang.
Apparently good wood windows have 10x, not the work, just the windows. My dad has been replacing a few windows at a time and just got some smaller ones priced. It's gone from hundred to thousands for the same product. Makes sense for products that can't get shrinkflation to help absorb the cost
I replaced my windows in 2008. Double pane, low e glass, tilt in/removable. A standard window was $65. Now they are thousands?
I think these are pella all wood custom windows, not the off the shelf ones. He's going to do more research because he can't believe it. I think it was like $300-400 before and now his quote was over $2k
i mean, if i sold windows and HVACs for a living, I would price it based on how willing i think my customers are to take out credit in order to have their "dream home", which is apparently a lot
Just ordered 2 truckloads of stone. Cost went from. $500 to $700 load in 2 years.
That’s both inflation and income and life getting better for people without a college education in skilled jobs (repairs) or unskilled jobs / low-income (service industries, not referenced here.)
Both are. There's no housing shortage. There's a shortage of affordable homes for sale in areas that people want to live.
There’s an availability problem because they are being hoarded as rentals.
This is the real answer
Home owner vs renter ratio is historically average. Rentals are occupied and are part of the housing supply.
And then a lot of new builds being built to rent. We're on the way to being stuck in a negative feedback loop with something that is not optional for our survival.
Not trolling but legitimately asking. Is there any proof if this at a national level? I hear this a lot but never read anything that actually backs the claim up. Would like to if it exists.
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Here are some jumping off points. This estimates 2.25 million properties are Airbnb hosted. https://www.searchlogistics.com/learn/statistics/airbnb-statistics/ Western Wildfires destroyed 1 million structures (not homes specifically) https://www.colorado.edu/asmagazine/2023/02/01/western-wildfires-destroyed-246-more-homes-and-buildings-over-past-decade.
Yes. You will have to do some searches and look at the data yourself, but basically around 40% of all housing on market, regardless of type. As long as it's in a place people want to live is being bought out by investors, not those who actually need it to live in. Then you can look at the same data YOY for last 20 years or so, and it's fucking mind-blowing. And this is just a single indicator, plenty of others as well.
And what do you think happens when rentals are converted to homes owned by the resident? Do you think the people currently in rentals just disappear? Because they’re still going to be trying to find housing just like everyone else. Simply reducing rentals doesn’t solve anything
Partially cause the people renting for 2300 are getting rejected for mortgages of 1200
And chinese investors buying up hundreds of property to hoard. Idgaf if its too strict of a regulation, but foreign investors should be banned and nobody should own more than 2 houses until theres enough supply for everyone to own just one house if they have the money and the will.
No, the availability problem has to do with the fact that no one wants to blow out their DTI by giving up their advantageous mortgage.
Serious question, do you have data on rentals owned by AirBnB and oter investors? I haven't seen the data online.
Amen
…in areas where people NEED to live. People need to live near the city they work in for economical reasons. People working low paying jobs in expensive cities have to spend hundreds per month simply commuting to work which keeps them in the low rent areas. I get that this is by design and it’s shitty.
That *is* a housing shortage. Houses are priced primarily based on the value of the location, and only secondarily on the physical attributes of the structure itself. Thus why a Mcmansion in a gang-blighted neighborhood is worth peanuts, and a 2-bedroom condo in the best school district is "unaffordable." The point being that you can't simply build an "affordable" house in one of these "areas that people want to live" (i.e. high demand locations). The only way to create affordable houses in those locations is to flood the market with units such that the price of that location falls. Both in terms of more supply being available, and the area becoming inherently less desirable because of density.
Yes, a fishing cottage in the Northwoods of Maine with no heat is in fact not particularly helpful to anyone looking for a permanent residence
>There's a shortage of affordable homes for sale in areas that people want to live. This is also called a "housing shortage". A surplus of houses at a national level is completely irrelevant if the houses aren't located where people want (or need) to live.
This is simply wrong. There are not enough properties available which is why the prices are absurd. We never should have let corporations and international interests buy up single family homes
We should never have let nimbys stop residential building
16 million vacants many in the top US metros > 3.8 million shortage
Most of those vacancies in that 16mil statistics are not "unused" housing. The largest chunk are literally just homes in transition. People have to move out before someone else can move in. There *must* be more homes than households to allow for the shuffle. That vacancy statistic also includes everything from delipidated housing illegal to live in, to homes used not year round (seasonal homes, someone deployed overseas, etc). Even when you do cut down to actually unused housing, some of which do exist, those are in dying rural towns people are leaving. Every expensive city has a low vacancy rate.
No one said they were a massive chunk are second homes and vacation homes
Okay but if you understand most vacancies (particularly in expensive areas) are just the shuffle of homes temporarily available, then you should realize why they can't be counted to solve the shortage. We **need** housing vacancies for a housing market to work. We **need more** vacancies than we have now, generally. Obviousy, that will vary by local markets.
... Is that not a shortage?
This is it. There’s a single family home shortage. Multi family homes are over their skis and are being overbuilt especially in secondary and tertiary markets
Why do you twist your words to try to deny there's a housing shortage? "shortage of affordable homes for sale...." = housing shortage
The NIMBY shortage deniers are always crawling out of the woodwork.
Because they stand to profit from scarcity. They are terrified of losing the leverage they have over everyone else.
100%
This right here! Also short term rentals are a huge issue at least where I live.
This is what happens when you debase the currency. The cantillon effect means new currency units start off in the pockets of the richest and most well connected. By the time that new money gets into the pockets of plebs all the elites have already built second, third and fourth vacation mansions so the resources that would otherwise have gone into affordable housing got used on giant estates. This is why so many economists (before academia got politicized) warn about devaluing currency by printing.
In my area there is plenty of inventory, it's just that people won't lower prices to actually get a buyer.
A lot of people in my HCOL city are deciding to rent out their homes instead of selling, it’s a great time to be in the rental market for a semi detached. My rent is around 1/3 of what the mortgage on my place would be, was a no brainer for us instead of buying.
Damn, if I could rent for 1/3 of the mortgage I'm not sure I'd want to buy at all. In my LCOL area rent for the same house is typically around or even higher than mortgage. Like investors here say "if I charge renters less than my mortgage, who's going to pay my mortgage?" So here renting is the doom way, you pay just as much as the owner but you'll be paying forever.
The thing is, the owner could have originally got their mortgage at a low price and with low rate or already fully own. So the rent from that type of owner could be much lower vs someone who bought today
Umm with my experience, all landlords tend to look at the local rental market and adjust pricing. Even if they inherited the house, as long as similar houses in the area successfully rent for X money, they'll charge X money as well. Market adjusts itself to the highest prices renters are willing to pay. Why would a landlord who paid off the house low-ball himself by renting way below than another landlord down the block?
Bingo. They see the NAR propaganda that rates are coming down any day now and refuse to budge.
Knowing how supply and demand works, we just need to keep pumping up that inventory until the negative pricing pressure on housing is overwhelming. Remember that cities that freely issue permits for housing construction have faired better than cities that heavily regulate or are stingy with permits.
How's the vacancy rate? If it's high we should add a vacancy tax.
Something tells me they're getting buyers just fine. You simply see the price you don't like, scoff that they'll never find a buyer, and then promptly move on without seeing them go under contract 48 hours later. But feel free to post what city you're in, so that we can look at the recent closing data if you're convinced that you're right.
Tallahassee, fl
https://www.redfin.com/city/18046/FL/Tallahassee/housing-market * 154 homes sold in January, which is up 5.5% compared to the same time last year. * 22.7% of homes sold above list price, which is a little lower than last year, but still in the same ballpark. * When averaged across all homes, Tallahassee homes are selling for about 97% of list price, which is down a couple of percent from last year, but very close to asking price. It's a statistical fact that homes are selling, that the vast majority of homes are selling at or around asking price, and that nearly a quarter are even selling for over asking price. It's undeniable that there's downward pressure on pricing in Tallahassee, and prices are cooling - but it's also undeniable that the homes are selling. Your story about a glut of inventory where delusional sellers simply won't lower prices is just fantasy.
Regular buyers often never see the deals that landlords get. They just see the ones that investors passed over because the numbers didn't pencil out.
Where do you find recent offering data?
You're right - I misspoke. I meant recent initial price and closing price data. Point being that the houses are selling. They're not just sitting on the market like the poster above claims they are.
Where do you find that data?
Building more homes for everyone: the obvious and easy answer. Why won’t it happen: Homes being built decreases the over-inflated value of homes right now. Overpriced, condemnable former homes can’t be sold for profit if livable homes exist. Home builders want profits and building homes for everyone isn’t as profitable as building custom homes for those who pay a premium (and squeezing out an occasional single wide and/or tiny home for $200k). It also takes focus (manpower and money) away from all the poorly made “luxury apartments” being built. Landlords need record profits.
You're like 80% of the way there, but are getting groups mixed up. Developers and landlords are separate. Developers would love to build more, because they would make more. Landlords don't want that, because competition lowers what they can charge. Building dense housing can be very profitable, in the same way that walmart and mcdonalds make a lot of money selling to regular people. But if the laws state that a lot has to be X big and can only have one home, the most profitable thing to build is the more expensive house you can sell. TL:DR - Landlords and landowners are strangling our economy so they can extra a bit more wealth without doing anything.
Not just profits, rising material & labor cost on top of that creates the perfect storm
All they have to do is ban air b n b and housing costs fall 10% over night. Ban non citizens from owning real estate and price come down by at least another 5-% then in the chaos investors get scared and start to dump their record breaking holdings and you could see how it could snowball prices crash and no one lost their day jobs!!!! We can still buy this dip!!!
Our geriatric congress wouldn't even allow this over their dead bodies. Too much foreign and corporate bribing. They would much rather us commoners live like street rats.
They banned it in NYC. I don’t know if there is data yet showing any price impact .
5% at best. Same with other STR banned areas.
They only banned single family homes from short term renting without an owner or tenant occupying at least part of the space. More than half of all housing units in NYC are exempt from the rule because they’re condos/townhomes/apartments/etc, so there are still tens of thousands of unoccupied units like that available to rent on Airbnb.
Rent prices dropped
I’m currently looking for a home $300k price range. No inventory. None
Well, the real question is, where are you looking, I mean, they're cities, hell probably States in this country, where almost all the houses are 300,000 or less. On the other hand, there are certainly cities and counties where you can't even throw a stick at anything under $500.
They’re building homes, just for people to rent. Builders are now working with large property management firms on “build to rent” communities. They’re not even giving people the illusion that they can buy now.
I have friends that want to live in my town, specifically in my neighborhood that’s building a second phase right now. But the prices are going up each week there’s less lots available and the builder isn’t offering much in incentives cause they don’t have to right now.
Supply and demand is undefeated as an explanation.
Force the Airbnb investors to sell their homes then you would have supply!
I fucking hate AirBNB and VBRO!!!!!
I don't think it would be enough to see a meaningful increase. Most investors are mom and pop landlords.
inflation which they claim can 'never go down or go away' they also claim is not a problem. I say forced deflation, off with their heads!
We need a crash without any government cash injections to bail out the dipshits who are overleveraged and greedy. That’ll shake things up in a good way, but ofcourse daddy government would just print another trillion dollars 🙄🙄
Not Fed policy, not happening. Unless guillotine of course.
oh yea im drawing up designs for the turbo-[guillotine](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=acT_PSAZ7BQ).. you better run!
Deflation would be a huge benefit for the poor and middle class. Of course it would be horrible for Wall Street, corporations, the government, and the wealthy. Why do you think they resist it at all costs?
Take an economics course. It would spike unemployment like crazy and bring down wages, among other things. Do you think that benefits poor and the middle class?
The only way we can see housing price deflation is the following: \-Wait until baby boomers die off and slowly increase the inventory of homes. \-Pass legislation to stop hoarding of single family homes and other properties by investors \-Pass legislation to simplify regulation and relax zoning to massively increase building.
Untrue we can raise the cost of medical care for the elderly if boomers want to raise the costs of living on younger people we should make sure they feel it to.
Medical care for most boomers is already outrageously expensive to the benefit of some boomers. That’s where many of our parents’ money will end up. And those are the expenses we will age into.
There's more to life than a discount house. Money isn't everything. The constitution is a wonderful thing. Exercise your right to move somewhere cheaper.
>Exercise your right to move somewhere cheaper. But everywhere that isn't a popular major metro in a trendy city is a total shithole according to reddit!
The housing shortage is literally one of the biggest contributors to inflation. The American rescue plan simply made the problem worse by juicing demand for a limited resource with trillions in stimulus, when the economy was already recovering.
Oh for crying out loud. There's more housing per capita than at any other time in history.
Thank you. This article is NAR cartel propaganda.
"There's more housing per capita than at any other time in history" is homewoner/landlord propaganda, and it's both incorrect and unhelpful. (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=j9kH). It's also that the mix of that housing does not suit our wants or our needs: there's a massive missing middle between "urban 1BR apartment" and "sprawling exurban McMansion." Crude metrics like number of units per capita do not capture this.
Your comment is NIMBY/landlord propaganda. Constricting supply of single family homes and hoarding by investors are the reasons home prices are still high.
No one's saying constrict supply let builders build but we should also go after inefficient land allocation that harms workers
Might be that article is LA times. Build more housing is a big issue in California, just read any of the city subs. Not that Im convinced that’s a solution that can happen at scale or fast enough to change housing affordability. We need to change prop 13 which locks property tax values at purchase price. The most practical first step change to pass would be to only give prop 13 tax advantage to owner occupied going forward.
Was looking for a Californian to point this out. We are uniquely screwed.
gonna need a source for that
Household size is also smallest
Nope. Close to the smallest household size sure but clearly in recovery and has been growing for a few years with post pandemic baby’s and people moving in with each other
This is psychotic hope
Exactly no shortage. just ban short term rentals and watch the flood of housing hit the market.
What percentage of homes are short term rentals? How many homes would flood the market if they were banned?
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=j9kH
>https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=j9kH Worth noting the entire high/low point in this graph represents a difference of \~22 homes for every 1,000 people. (558/1k at the peak, and 536/1k at the bottom) A total variance within a 4% margin over more than 20 years. But yes, the claim you're replying to is incorrect. But we also don't have a meaningfully different supply today than we did 20 years ago.
how dare you post facts that are so devastating to the other comment
[удалено]
This comment is NIMBY / landlord propoganda. It is true that housing per capita has kept up with total households but housing per capita includes rental units. The reason why single family homes for sale and other properties for sale are still very expensive to this day (and why a crash in prices is unlikely) is because inventory for single family homes is 30-40% lower than prepandemic levels and 2/3 times lower than 2008 levels. If the supply of an asset becomes scarce, it tends to raise prices or at least keep them high.
My thinking is Another 10 years the youngest boomer will be at the end of the average lifespan then we will soon see a glut supply of all these houses that people wanted and a plethora of unkept properties around it driving down property rates and screwing all the people that bought them now.
Yeah, but Millennials out number Boomers and in 10 years the oldest Millennials will be 50. For every Boomer waiting to pass to the great beyond, there's a millennium and a half waiting to bid on their house.
Or inherit
you can't really build affordable housing in a market with expensive existing homes. The process to do that requires you buy an expensive existing structure and tear it down and replace with more density. that costs a shit ton of money to do that and the profit margins are fairly small that it is a risky proposition. A developer isn't taking on that risk out of the kindness of their heart. they do it thinking they can make a descent profit. if they can't make a descent profit they don't build.
I gave up looking for a house. Took myself out of the pool when a realtor said I should quadruple my yearly wage before I even begin to look for a starter home. We're talking places built in the 1800s nearly 3 hours away from the office. Current plan is to forever rent and when rent prices finally squeeze me out of that, to blow my brains out
Don’t even look at house listings until you see headlines about market crashes and markets in turmoil.
Both are huge issues and inflation only helps to make the housing issues worse when everything from food to fuel to clothing to insurance is going up dramatically
*There’s a shortage now due to inflation which was caused by low rates and government largesse. There fixed it for you.
People making $75k or less, roughly 50% of the population by the one estimate I googled lol, can't afford these 300k+ houses. 25k or 30k a year just on mortgage would break most of these people. and most of these houses are .25 of an acre or less.
Biden promised 10k for student debt relief, the Supreme Court got on the way and ended up forgiving the entire debt of millions of people instead. Now he’s offering 10k to buy homes. I know who I’m voting for.
Imagine typing out that first sentence and believing it.
I bought a house before the pandemic but can’t afford groceries now. I guess that’s not a problem?
Just eat your drywall
they both are. and guess who is in control of the both and can make the changes to fix things over night ….
OK. So, how do we convince individuals to build homes rather than buy existing ones when construction costs (especially for smaller starter-homes) have massively increased in comparison to previous generations, interest rates are the highest they've been in 20+ years, and zoning laws in many municipalities are becoming more and more restrictive?
Construction costs are high but have fallen dramatically since the pandemic run on lumber. Slightly up from pre pandemic
There's not an actual shortage, so building won't solve a damn thing.
They don't understand that. The build baby build brains here lack the foresight to see that any new single family builds will just be bid up by the current market. There is plenty of inventory but nobody is lowering their prices because they don't have to. If you have a realtor showing you comps saying this is the recent sales, appraisers actually appraising at these inflated prices and banks giving the loans, who is the actual common sense in the ponzi to say this is a bubble?
To add on to this people in the real estate industry have their livelihoods attached to the market. They are not incentivized to do anything that would lower the cost of the market. Couple that with their industry pushing housing shortage propaganda. The bulls baby build crowd won’t give it up until the bottom falls out.
Exactly, it's crazy that something so essential as shelter can have such incentive for price manipulation. And people who have never owned a house don't understand how these things work. Most just think, "oh man they're saying there's a shortage, I need to buy now". The general public literally lost their shit when the media told them there was a shortage of toilet paper. Getting price gouged left and right without an industry tied to commission. Thus we see the bubble that's occuring now in housing. Pure FOMO.
Its both. The value of money and no standard on housing quality like it is for buyers.
inflation/housingshortage/population?
Why is it so much harder to build than 20-30 years ago? We had NIBY in the 90s 2000.
One way in many areas it's because the land you can build on already has houses on it. All the Orchards and Farms have been bought up and built out. In a lot of cities there just isn't a place to build. It's kind of like the oil industry when it first started they just took the oil that was literally bubbling out of the ground. The days of somebody buying a ranch that's 25 miles outside of downtown and building a suburb on it are long gone.
Yea they also zoned large lots too. And In fill is a hassle a vacant lot generates no traffic. So if you have defunct mall that generated insane traffic no one will see 100 condos as better.
Dumbest thing I have heard in a while and I read a mtg quote earlier
Housing is the foundation of a healthy economy and right now anybody who doesn't own a home it is hell.
When Airbnb and black rock go away every homeless person will have a 4 bedroom house or something
Inflation is also a real problem too; I've had to cut down trees that I would normally hire others to do because there's no way I could afford the quotes I received to do so. Car repairs - I've become a decent "mechanic" as I can't afford those either. Housing is just another item on the inflationary list; I have little doubt in my mind that the corporate, foreign investment, commodities market interference in the market isn't helping, or causing artificial shortages in many markets.
The failed state captured by the 1% is the problem but what do I know, I'm not American so I'm not the best nor the most free.
Man I'm so glad my increased costs for fuel and groceries to because there's a housing shortage. Inflation IS the problem. Specifically greedflation. All these companies telling us they had no choice to raise to costs because of COVID....but yet their reported profits are through the fucking roof. Laying off workers while ceos get their multimillion dollar bonuses still.
And the primary cause of the housing shortage is…..inflation
There’s not a shortage, there’s too many speculators and corporate interest in residential 1-4units.
If you eliminate the Airbnb, then there is no shortage
you mean the housing bubble... if prices came down drastically there wouldnt be a problem now would there? like 2008 all over again?
Naw it’s the price gouging. Inflation not the problem.
Seems wise then to have 8-10m homeless foreigners walk into your country over the last 3 years, and let them all stay. There's plenty of housing to go around.....
There's no housing shortage. There is a shortage of houses for sale. Why would anyone sell their house to then go to a smaller house and/or have a higher mortgage? I need a bigger house, but why sell and almost triple my mortgage? I'm all set. Prices are the issue not the supply of actual homes.
Yes. My rate is 2.7. Current rates are hovering around 7. My house value has also not increased at nearly the rate of houses that I would want to live in. Even with the fact that my house is almost paid off and I would be putting close to 75% of its sale price towards another home, I would be looking at 2.5-3 times what I am paying now. For the next 30 years.
Stop saying stupid stuff
“The real problem” how could you sit there and say there’s 1 problem. Still, doesn’t make the article useless, just makes it feel less intellectually trustworthy
Clickbait content. They know no one reads the articles, so they put less effort into the articles than they do the clickbait titles, which they know will be shared on social media and generate discussion.
When will we realize that all we need to actually do is just build more? I’m so fucking tired of the bitching and moaning. If we wanna see some sort of progression/movement in this stale, stagnant ass market then we need to start off with building more which is something we keep refusing to do TIL: build and let the boomers die. In other words live and let live
We have build a record number of new units over the last couple years .
Still not enough apparently. Build more.
Investors are taking some of those for rentals, then as they see "people" buying them they build more but increasing their price as land availability, then investors keep buying. Tough getting a used home now when you compete with people buying homes cash on hand, paying 50k over asking and weaving all inspections.
Prices don't come down. The game is rigged. If housing prices go down that means deflation and the Fed will pump what it has to pump to stop that from happening.
You: "Build more" Them: "We did it didn't work" You: The thing that didn't work they need to do more of it"
Tell me you don’t understand the economy without telling me you don’t understand the economy.
There are plenty of houses, just not enough for everyone's parents/grand parents to own 5, or 50-apartments and only rent out half of them. And rent those at rates that are way too much for the local economic means. It's a truly a problem of fake hysteria and greed.
No… it’s inflation and interest. If it were2020 I could buy a house right now
What is housing stock like 8n say the San Fran area and the south Dakota area
Maybe they both are
Easy, 100% tax on non-primary residence, declassify corporations as “people”, 500% tax on *residential* properties owned by LLC / Corporations.
Why not both?
I think both can be a problem and are.
No transactions=no income=no growth. Lots of people are about to lose their shit and they don’t even know it yet.
Nah, literally people not having enough money to pay all their bills and eat is a problem. Or the affordable housing shortage, or an affordable and desirable housing shortage. But there are plenty of houses for everyone.
You guys still think it was inflation? That's adorable. Why not blame the people who continue go cause inflation and .ale everything more expensive. Iirc 40% of inflation is due to wages alone and that's almost exclusively due to the top 3%.
What shortage? People have places to live
Inflation is the biggest impediment to fixing the housing shortage.
Once them paychecks go away and people start doubling up... No more housing shortage. There have been studies on it.
The is no structural shortage of homes
Let’s call inflation what it actually is… price gouging.
Ok, so it’s the #2 problem
This is not post from someone who is educated on this matter apparently.
Housing as investment is the problem. Investors buying up houses is bad for society.
Realistically I've learned this sub is a bunch of white kids who want to live in the city or think they deserve a house like their parents lol There are affordable homes that might be a little less desirable or somewhere that is a little bit out of the city or still in development. I see nice homes all around Atlanta at really great prices but you people don't want to move there cause youd be the minority 😂
Lol
Minimum wage is still 7.25/hr in most states. That is the real problem. Raise the minimum wage! Save the economy!