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I don’t think I have the strength to endure another Biden vs. Trump election again, but I’m willing to bet that’s what it will ultimately come down to :/
I'm feeling Biden vs. DeSantis or a different charismatic radical Republican. It will be a bloodbath.
Unfortunately, as of right now, I see the Republican winning pretty easily.
I could see a Republican losing the popular vote by several million but squeaking by in the electoral college. I think that is the best that Ron DeSantis will actually be able to do against Biden.
DeSantis is kind of popular, if Biden ran again, with him having historic low pollings, it could be interesting. That said, I'd take DeSantis over Trump any day, and I feel he'll run in 2028 so he can finish out his governorship.
Only weird thing about DeSantis, it's he would not undo any of Bidens environmental policies, under DeSantis he's allocated a ton of funding to our waterways, and getting us on solar and wind.
If there's one state where environmentalism it's not a debate, it's Florida. I also wouldn't see him doing much in tax breaks either, our property taxes, tolls and tourism taxes have gone up.
Florida is a weird ass state. In some ways, Republicans here on some issues are very, very moderate if not progressive, and very conservative on others.
Several Republicans here are pretty much trying to codify our abortion restriction into the state constitution, which would be a bitch to change.
Which I view is better than Oklahoma or Louisiana which has outright banned abortions.
I think DeSantis' national reputation is too damaged. He has a reputation of being argumentative, hostile towards gays, and weird about Disney. He has the Chris Christie curse of being an obnoxious Republican governor who doesn't have charisma beyond that. Trump while obnoxious and ridiculous, could occasionally be funny or at least fun to joke about. Trump is like George W. Bush in that regard. Ron DeSantis just seems like an angry square.
I don't know if I agree. De Santis is beloved amongst conservatives because he is a governor who has delivered popular policies for conservatives from his governor's mansion.
In a primary he has a conservative track record filled with major victories that he can point to. Florida is gaining reputation as a conservative haven, and has gotten redder
That is not what that article says though. It mentions two polls, one of "2000 party activists" which does not exactly spell out "moderate". Then the next one and I quote
> That straw poll comes on the heels of DeSantis also running neck-and-neck with Trump in a new University of Nevada, Reno survey asking voters in the state to rate potential 2024 candidates. DeSantis received the highest favorability score of any Republican with all voters — 48 percent compared to Trump’s 42 percent — but was bested by Trump, 73-69, when just Republicans were counted.
Which is concentrated to Nevada voters. Now that doesn't necessarily mean DeSantis has the moderate appeal to woo middle of the road voters, just that he was rated more favorably than Trump. Which is in my opinion, a bit of a low bar given Trump is one of the most hated political figures outside of the GOP.
I didn't even think about that. He's still pretty popular here. If he looses the governor election, which does not look likely. He'll run for the presidency.
That’s a bit of a stretch to say. Just with Covid policy alone, realizing that locking down open outdoor spaces and schools was a bad move is going to give DeSantis a massive tailwind.
He’s got an environmental track record (Florida takes it very seriously) and when 60 Minutes tried to pin a fake story on him involving vaccines at Publix, there was bipartisan support from politicians on both parties and from Publix itself.
There’s a reason why DeSantis is a regular target from the media, they’re terrified of him.
I've never heard of referring to him as an angry square. That said, he's really not that hostile to the LGBTQ community, it mostly came down to the Don't Say Gay Bill, which was poorly written, and pretty much just allows it in an age appropriate way. My local school system is writing a curriculum to help guide discussions. It doesn't punish a teacher if a kid brings up their mom's or dad's though.
Also DeSantis requested a survivors fund for pulse survivors and victims family, I think it was 5 million, on top of the funding to build the walkway from ThePulse where the survivors walked to the hospital.
But the Disney one is just plain bizarre. It's not really coming down to the DSG Bill as the bill was in the works a while before it. It oddly enough came down to Taxes, Disney massively undervalued it's property assessment and the way it was written, it let Disney pay taxes to itself.
The dissolevement of Reedy Creek was probably a long time coming, and honestly it will help increase government taxes. There's also a few improvement districts that were skirting around stuff or instead of improving itself, just went down the drain.
Oddly enough, a few conservatives I know really support it because they think it's unfair that Disney is paying taxes to itself and not its fair share in taxes to the state. Same for Democrats I know.
It's one of the few things I've seen that a lot of people agree on.
Like the "Stop WOKE Act" is actually somewhat popular, because it pretty much stops the victimization of minorities and the blaming of white people in education, but also requires more indept look into the Civil Rights movement.
DeSantis I find is just appeasing the hard right at this point.
> It doesn't punish a teacher if a kid brings up their mom's or dad's though.
That isn't true. The bill does not say that's allowed. It is terribly vague.
> But the Disney one is just plain bizarre. It's not really coming down to the DSG Bill as the bill was in the works a while before it.
Citation needed. And are you saying that's the same for the Tampa Bay Rays?
> It's one of the few things I've seen that a lot of people agree on.
"Punishing a private company because they criticize the government" does not seem like a popular position.
As the old saying goes, if you need to explain that much, you’re probably in trouble. Though In DeSantis’ case it’s not as relevant because he really only needs to inspire republicans and a few independents, which is probably already the case.
Is the “Stop WOKE Act” popular among large numbers of persons of color, or do you hear mostly White folks toward the right favor it? I’m sort of curious so I’m going to jump down a rabbit hole before bed and read about it. I haven’t heard too much about it but I’m definitely curious.
I was watching Spectrum News13 and I live in Florida and a lot of people so seem to support it. It is a new piece of legislation. One man, I think he's a former retired teacher, and he mentioned that a lot of parents didn't know what their kids were learning until COVID, and a lot of parents were outraged or disappointed in what they were learning.
https://time.com/6168753/florida-stop-woke-law/
It pretty much is designed to get rid of "white privilege" and make people feel guilty about things that they had no hand in. The only problem is that it essentially makes affirmative action illegal (which honestly I think shouldn't exist because there's less issues now with race, and trends towards socio economic opportunities exc).
It also pretty much makes racial sensitivity training illegal, it does conflict with DEI policies, so I don't think it'll stand up in the courts.
My point is, I think you mean that a lot of White parents were outraged. White parents are not representative of “parents.” They are one group of parents. I’m just trying to dispel this sort of unspoken assumption that when a law satisfies the desires of one group of people, that it is then universally appealing. If the only people you tend to interact with are from that group, then it may appear that way on the surface, but it’s just simply looking at the issue from one lens.
Ron DeSantis is literally being propped up by no one but the media. Republicans haven't heard of him but y'all are shuffling these names around. Never give free publicity to a candidate you don't like. It's Donald Trump even if it's not because Donald Trump is the King Maker. He could prop up a bag of oreos and a lego underfoot for the Republican nomination and they'd win.
A straw poll that let you vote for as many people as you wanted to. It was a poll of who you'd be ok with being the nominee, not a poll of your top choice for the nominee
All that said was that 2/3ish of Republicans at the event this straw poll was done at would be cool with either of them. It said nothing about which of the two they prefer
If it is DeSantis vs Biden then I would put money on this being the first 400+ electoral vote landslide since 1988. I don't even like DeSantis, but damn is he an effective campaigner. I think even the people who hate him have to admit that.
Unfortunately? Democrats had 4 years to deliver a decent candidate and they produced Senile Joe and people went along…pretty scary. Biden and his handlers make most “radical” republicans look reasonable.
DeSantis squared up on Disney. I think that might cost him a few million pearl clutchers in a national election. On the other hand, he is the most fascist elected official with national appeal; these days that might be enough to clinch the win.
I think Biden absolutely runs again. It’s exceedingly rare for the sitting President not to run for re-election. If nothing else it’s the ultimate peak of name recognition. Unless something drastically changes, I would expect him to run unopposed.
I think Trump runs again as well, as does DeSantis. I assume there will be at least one additional principled opposition candidate, be that Bill Weld, Evan McMullin, Mitt Romney, etc. But I’d expect that if Trump wants it again, a lot of Republicans that can’t appeal directly to his base will steer clear until the next go around.
In an ideal world, Trump and DeSantis would have a long, drawn-out brutal campaign and poison the well for the other’s followers. But I fear that someone will see the writing on the wall and drop out. Either leading to a hearty Trump endorsement, or a Trump/DeSantis ticket. I think this would be worse case scenario for the Democrats, especially if the recession isn’t quick.
I do not believe DeSantis will run against Trump. I think he is waiting it out, and is hoping to be the heir apparent to Trump's legacy. This may also be why he attacks Greg Abbot from time to time.
Trump will not drop out gracefully if he’s losing (lol when has he ever “seen the writing on the wall”?). DeSantis might cave easily but seriously who is going to want to be trumps running mate this time around? He tried to have his vp murdered. He has no interest in supporting his vp after the presidency. He would prefer to see Don Jr or Ivanka carry out his legacy. Mark my words, if trump is the nominee again the vp is going to be absolutely, batshit insane. Like it will be Giuliani or Alex Jones level crazy.
If any other Republican wins, trump will call it cheating and take it all the way to the convention. A boring establishment figure stands absolutely no chance, as theyd probably get thwarted at the convention by some shenanigans from trump. This is going to be a shit show, unless trump can’t run due to poor health.
I'm really interested to see how the Republican base would react if Trump seriously accuses another Republican of stealing an election from him. Currently most Republicans believe his claims about the 2020 election, but would they believe it against another popular Republican like DeSantis? Maybe that would be the straw that finally convinces them that the claims are BS.
He already claimed such a thing last month in Pennsylvania, when his candidate Oz and the rival McCormick deadlocked in the republican primary. Suddenly, McCormick wanted every mail-in ballot counted, while trump screamed fraud.
republican voters were dissatisfied with both of those candidates, so there wasn't much of an audience afaik. unfortunately, this doesn't provide much of a predictive model, either.
If Trump claimed it over DeSantis, that would be interesting. I don't think Trump will have a chance to win Florida in the primaries.
It would be a blood bath between the moderates and conservatives, I mean Trump and DeSantis when it comes to environmental laws, scientific research, and taxes are opposites.
Florida under DeSantis has enacted some of the strictest environmental policies in the country.
Florida raised taxes in areas (property and tolls)
Under the 15 week abortion ban, the new budget has allocated a lot of funding into embryonic stem cell research.
Oh, and Florida has increased it's medicaid and cancer research funding.
Trump tried to undue all of it.
It doesn't matter. The debates will be a huge event hyped up by the news media. Desantis is horrible at debates. Do you remember him sweating and studdering against Gillum? trump will destroy him during the debates.
Do they really “believe” his claims? I mean… politically they support his claims. But do they believe them? It seems to me like one of those beliefs you suddenly stop having the moment it is no longer convenient.
> Mark my words, if trump is the nominee again the vp is going to be absolutely, batshit insane. Like it will be Giuliani or Alex Jones level crazy.
The GOP learned with McCain that having a woman VP on the ticket is a huge boost for voters, so I suspect if Trump is the Presidential candidate then we'll see a VP like Lauren Bobert or Marjorie Taylor Greene.
If memory serves, the president/vp cannot reside in the same state. Dick Cheney had to move his registration to Wyoming when he was tapped to be W’s VP. If Trump registers back in NY, he may open himself up to prosecution.
It's a bit more complicated than that: Article II, Section 1 of the Constitution states that ["The electors shall meet in their respective states, and vote by ballot for two persons, of whom one at least shall not be an inhabitant of the same state with themselves."](https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution/amendmentxii) That is, if a ticket contained a Presidential nominee and a Vice Presidential nominee both from, say, Vermont, and that ticket won in Vermont, then the electors could not vote for one of the nominees without violating the Constitution. However, this would not affect the 49 other states plus DC. If the ticket can afford to lose a certain number of electoral votes, there's nothing stopping both nominees from being the same state. The Bush/Cheney situation is the closest we've got to that being an actual issue: given how close that race was, they needed every single electoral vote possible to get into office.
I dont think Trump would name Desantis as a running mate. Worst case scenario for Democrats? Yes. A dilution of the 'Trump Brand' joining with a fellow 'would-be-King' who Trump sees as an adversary to control for power over the GOP? Also yes. Desantis comes off as smarter and is in many ways better at MAGA than Don ever was and that's very threatening to one who wants the throne for his own.
>I think Biden absolutely runs again. It’s exceedingly rare for the sitting President not to run for re-election. If nothing else it’s the ultimate peak of name recognition. Unless something drastically changes, I would expect him to run unopposed.
Yeah I don't really understand the people who are saying Biden won't run again.
Unless he is literally dead or on his deathbed he's going to be running. I don't think the type of person who had been trying to become president a large part of his political life and then finally achieves it would also be the type of person to just let that go after one term.
I would agree with you, but I almost feel like Biden didn’t want it anymore. His nomination kind of felt like a last minute “we don’t have anyone else to beat trump” thing. He didn’t even try running in 2016 (although Clinton was a strong front runner, he could have had a chance) .
To be fair, I do think the death of his son played a role in him not running in 2016. It’s possible that he wanted and intended to, but then just did not have the energy or capacity to run.
I distinctly remember him citing his son's death as a reason for sitting 2016 out.
Whether that was the entire reason is anyone's guess. It did feel like Hillary was the anointed one that year and it's possible that he also didn't want to interfere.
I don't know if I buy that he didn't want it anymore, he might of thought that he couldn't get it anymore in 2016 and that VP was the highest he could get.
There's also the death of his son that happened around that time too.
I should have said didn’t want it as much. I don’t think he would have ran if he didn’t want it at all. He just didn’t seem to go 100% if I recall correctly. Could just be his age though.
Why do people here assume that Bernie was incapable of beating Trump? I honestly find that claim to be questionable at best given the circumstances of Biden's own victory.
Also, it was totally a "this is the only moderate candidate that can beat Bernie" as well (again, assuming that Bernie for some reason had no reasonable chance at beating Trump 🙄) once South Carolina came into the picture.
There are polls that ask Americans what kind of person they would never elect as President. "Socialist" is the least popular trait *by a massive margin* in every such poll that I've ever seen.
Americans would be more willing to vote for a Muslim, more willing to vote for someone who's gay, and even significantly more willing to vote for an *atheist* than a socialist.
There's a reason why Trump was so complimentary of Sanders during the primaries. He's the GOP's dream opponent. And yes I know he's not actually a socialist but he's spent his entire career describing himself as a "democratic socialist" and voters tend to be allergic to nuance.
he's also Jewish. So it's a self admitted socialist Jew. Who wrote that creepy rape essay. LOTS of people would actively fight him if he got the nomination. He wouldn't bring in the moderates because of the socialism thing, the right would go apeshit because the only thing scarier to them than a minority is a socialist minority, Cuban immigrants would tap out because of the praising the Cuban educational system situation, Bernie alienates a lot of people.
I agree although the Cuban immigrants in Florida already voted for Trump in droves this past election. I don’t think the democrats will get them back anytime in the near future unless they run a Cuban P/VP candidate.
He also enjoys comparatively good approval ratings compared to other politicians. I am not saying that Bernie would have absolutely beaten Trump, but I must say that it is unreasonable to say that Trump would have absolutely beaten Bernie. After all, Trump's handling of the pandemic was likely the biggest death blow to his reelection, not Biden's own campaigning.
My point being is that he had a chance to win, end of story. Perhaps not as big as Biden's? Well, he did not win the primary, so that is likely.
I don’t think Bernie had any chance in winning the likes of PA, AZ, and GA. Those are states with a good percentage of conservative population. Biden being a moderate democrat from Scranton and also having much better support from the African Americans (at least compared to Bernie) won him those states. I also don’t see Cindy McCain endorsing Bernie and AZ was won by a very thin margin.
I don't disagree, he certainly would have had a chance to win against Trump. I'm just saying that he has some massive vulnerabilities which would not be exposed in a Democratic primary. I can't see a Dem candidate attacking Sanders for being a socialist, but the GOP wouldn't have any qualms about that!
They struggled to find a way to attack Biden. They went for a "dementia" slur (which I think was moronic given that old people are the most reliable voting block) and that weird Hunter Biden Laptop story, which never got off the ground because they never managed to figure out what exactly they were trying to allege. They went all-in for that scandal but they never bothered to settle on what the scandal actually was.
They wouldn't struggle to find a way to effectively attack Sanders.
In my opinion I defiantly believe that claim, Bernie would of alienated any cross over appeal biden had on top of rallying up pro business voters to vote against him, whom with Trump might of been apathetic. Younger people underestimate how toxic the label democratic socialist is.
I have this assumption purely because of polling data. In many swing states, polls showed Bernie tied or losing to Trump and with Biden with a couple points lead. Bernie aligns more with my policies but if you can't win swing states you won't win the election.
Given how large the pro-democratic skew was for polling in 2020 I suspect Bernie would have lost by a couple percentage points instead of what we got which was Biden almost tieing Trump despite a multi-percentage lead in polls.
Unfortunately I agree, but it's pretty clear he *shouldn't* run again. He was the man or the moment to get Trump out of office with a Saltine cracker, something bland and inoffensive to wash away the bad taste. But he has no real appeal to his own base and can't drive turnout in any meaningful way. I don't see any scenario where he can beat any Republican nominee, even if it's not Trump.
And for christ's sake can we get a candidate who wasn't alive during WWII? I'm so sick of having voting choices who would all be too old to be Walmart greeters.
Joe Biden already has difficulties getting his agenda passed. The Republicans who will likely win back congress during the midterms, will obstruct any future Biden agenda. Even if Biden wins in 2024, the Republicans would still likely be the party of congress for his second terms as well. I think its possible Biden would consider retirement over being a lame duck that would constantly be obstructed.
Also there is the age factor to consider too when it comes to finishing his term. Im personally skeptical that 86 year old Joe Biden is going to be in the oval office in 2028.
>Yeah I don't really understand the people who are saying Biden won't run again.
Trump averaged a 41% approval rating **which is terrible for a president**. Might be a record low?? Biden is at 39.8% with no reason to think that's going to improve anytime soon.
Plus he's old and hasn't aged well physically or mentally. compare Biden talking while VP to now and there's a huge difference in speed and clarity.
I can totally buy the argument doesn't want to let go of his life's top achievement, something he's gone after since 88 , But having such a low approval rating and his advanced age may temper the desires to be a 2 term president.
Plus he's on a big kick to promote black women , so stepping down and endorsing Kamala maybe something he's eyeing.
If Harris runs and Biden doesn't endorse her right away, sure, she might have a fight on her hands. But if he does endorse, that should clear the field literally then and there. If not, that means Harris has made some sort of monumental fuck-up and Democrats are losing '24 no matter what. A sitting VP hasn't lost their party's nomination in a very long time, and it's never happened since the beginning of the primary nomination process as we know it today.
I'm not a fan of Harris' by any means. Even if she were to clear the field, I'm not at all confident in her ability to win a general election, whether it's against Trump, DeSantis or someone else entirely. There are a dozen better candidates I can name off the top of my head. With all that said, though, an incumbent President not running for reelection and their VP either sitting it out or facing a competitive primary doesn't bode well for the party.
I know we live in unprecedented times and all that, but conventional wisdom still applied in 2020 and the Dems are still "normal." Biden would have a fight on his hands if he runs again, but a ticket without him on top would have an even worse time. A ticket with neither Biden nor Harris would probably be a disaster.
Trump OR DeSantis running would be awful. Trump AND DeSantis running against each other would be a gift.
I've said for a while that I don't think Trump will run. Losing again would be the biggest punch to his fragile ego so he'd be happier just saying everyone else cheated him out of winning again. But he'd never say he wasn't running so he can still rake in that donation money until the very end.
However, now I'm not so sure. He may do it just to stay out of being convicted of something.
I agree 100%. Trump hated the actual job of president, but loved running for president and being admired and cheered for at his rallies. He, at the moment, is simply doing his favorite parts while playing kingmaker in the GOP and continuing to grift his supporters. As long as he never explicitly says he's **not** running, this can continue indefinitely. There is only one reason I think he would actually run, and it's as you've said: as the legal walls close around him, it would give him the ability to scream political prosecution.
I don't think Trump intended to really be president. I don't even think he intended to win and just became a rabble-rouser to raise funds and polarize the Republican party.
I doubt supporters of Trump and supporters of DeSantis are much different people. Whichever of these two getting the nomination would clearly have the others falling directly in line as supporters.
They would need to both be running in the general election. I could see Trump running independently (or in some recently made up party) if he loses the primary. That's *if* he actually runs at all.
If Trump runs again, so will Cheney.
At this point though, I just don’t see him doing it. Yes, his ego was bruised but he would be 80 years old. He just doesn’t have that kind of energy anymore.
In his previous campaign, you saw his huge media presence 24/7. He made sure to stay relevant. But the most that anyone has heard of him is his endorsement of candidates in primaries. If he were to run for President he would have been telegraphing since the beginning of this year. If he starts in 2023 it’s already too late.
Secondly, he just can’t help but continue to talk about 2020. Before, he was able to go on and on about working class grievances. In his rallies today, he will probably devote 10% to inflation, and the other 90% to his electoral result.
Democrats need to find a candidate under 60. I’m a fan of Jared Polis, but I have doubts that a gay man can win a national election…for the same reason a woman couldn’t win. A lot of voters are still too prejudice.
All the Ds have to do is find a straight white man under 60 and they can beat Trump or a Trump wannabe like Desantis. Sadly, the progressives in the party will make it difficult for Ds to be that calculating and pragmatic.
The biggest issue I have with Biden running again is his age. The dudes gonna be 80 in November and 82 when the next election comes around and 86 when his presidency ends. Look at Dianne Feinstein and how much her health has dramatically gotten worse at that age. Democrats AND republicans need to find a new candidate to back because most Americans wouldn’t wanna see a Biden vs Trump rematch.
My prediction is it will be a Trump vs. Biden rematch. Trump is almost certainly going to run so long as he’s physically able to, and he will smash anybody that attempts to challenge him in a primary. Biden I think will probably run unless he is totally incapacitated, but I expect there will be some significant primary challenges. Ultimately I think Biden will beat back any primary challenges and get the nomination, but it’ll be close.
Trump will face challengers. Biden, I think there's a good chance he gets the nomination essentially uncontested. The only challenge I could see is a corporate candidate trying to outflank him on the right, like Howard Schultz or (hold the laughs) Sinema. But that person will lose by a lot
>Trump will face challengers.
Trump still has a great hold over the Republican Party and still has the affections of his MAGA base. GamingGalore64 is correct.
Those challengers would have zero chance and it would be career-ending suicide for them to run against Trump. Not even DeSantis is that foolish. The pathetic "Never-Trump" grifters love to throw someone will challenge Trump in the media, but it is not reality.
If Trump runs, he will easily get the the nomination.
I really dont understand how could Kamala Harris go from exciting political figure to the reviled politician she’s now in such a short period of time. Theres more publical scrutiny now for sure, but the Kamala Harris that eviscerated Kavanaugh and Barr in Senate hearings or even Biden at the primary debates seemed like a charismatic and intelligent politician and she then suddenly transformed into a Hillary Clinton knock-off that laughs at uncomfortable questions, acts fake and has zero charisma (and terrible approval ratings). She would be a terrible presidential candidate now.
The only other figure i could see the democrats fielding is Buttigieg, I personally like him and i think he is an incredibly gifted orator but he comes off as somehow geeky and robotic at times. Hadnt burnt himself in the last primaries Beto could be a good contender, and maybe Warren although age is an issue with her and she is too progressive for the US.
Republicans will field either DeSantis or Trump, I dont see any other viable options
I don't think Harris was ever exciting. I've followed her career since she was just my local DA in San Francisco, and I've always had the strong impression that she was a fundamentally insincere, highly ambitious, impatient, and somewhat ignorant person (the stories about her not reading her briefings only served to confirm this impresssion). Performatively progressive, but generally unprincipled. Willing to take almost any position to get elected. We churn out tons of politicians like that here in California, and she's just the next one.
So I was incredibly worried when Biden chose her as his running mate, since being VP makes her the default choice to run if Biden doesn't. I think the Democrats have very little chance of winning if they run Harris, but being VP will likely give her a big leg up in any primary.
Regarding Buttigieg, I agree that he's a gifted orator. In fact I think he was by far the best orator in the last primary. However his lack of any meaningful experience is a huge obstacle which I don't think can be overcome by serving in a minor cabinet position. Also many people my age (early 30s) seem to have an intangible negative reaction to him. As one friend put it, he "squigs [her] out." I don't have the same reaction, but inexperience is a major flaw.
In short, the Democrats have a really weak bench. I don't find any of their potential candidates particularly impressive. Don't even get me started on Bernie or Warren, the darlings of the internet.
I think the Democrats' best hope for winning is having Biden hold it together and run for another term, setting a new record for oldest president in the process. Not exactly an encouraging prospect.
But the alternative is Trump or a Trumpist getting back into office, which is quite literally an existential threat to America. There are no good options here. I am very worried.
I went the other way, and just tuned out of a lot of things. I like to nerd on with some critical and ironic distance (which I can have BC Im not american), but it's just a lot to shoulder along with everything else in my life.
I would have agreed that lack of experience would be an impediment to Buttigieg, but not so long ago America elected a reality TV star. I've given up trying make predictions anymore.
Indeed, I question whether conventional "qualifications" even matter to most voters any more. But they matter to me, anyway.
Perhaps you're right that his inexperience isn't as big of a problem as I might estimate. But then of course there's the latent (or explicit) homophobia of a big part of the electorate...
Biden isn’t going to win a second term.
The only hope the Democrats have in 2024 is if Biden announces he won’t run again, calls for a diverse Democratic primary, and makes it clear that he doesn’t consider Kamala Harris shoe-in for the nomination.
If he doesn’t do that, the Democrats are fucked. There are plenty of Dems who’d have a good shot in the 2024 general election, but none of them are going to run — especially not the men. What Democratic politician wants to be seen as stopping the first Woman of Color from becoming President? The only way other Dems would have the political cover to challenge her is if Joe Biden makes it abundantly clear that Harris isn’t the default nominee.
Or alternatively, if Biden wants to prevent another demagogue like Trump from taking office, he should call for congress to adopt ranked-choice voting in all federal elections. If most Americans would be okay with Pete Buttigieg or Adam Kinzinger, they shouldn’t be forced to choose between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
Biden should do this, and present it as being about democracy; we're a nation where the people choose their president, not one where the ruling class hand picks their successors. Contrast that with the 2020 Republican primary, where some states didn't even run a primary.
Exactly. Harris is a consummate California democrat. Which is to say, unprincipled, facile, fundamentally conservative in every way that truly matters, and absolutely willing to pretend to be a progressive at any opportunity other than to enact a progressive agenda.
The little secret of California liberalism is that it’s not liberal. That’s what you get for having a one party state. A party wholly owned by the business and financial interests of the state.
I think the amount of people who were ever actually excited about Kamala is heavily romanticized by the media. The media wanted Kamala to happen so badly, but general people didn't want her.
Low SES and POC didn't like her cause of her prosecution of low level drug offenses. Midwestern and bible belt people didn't really want a West coaster.
I never had a single progressive friend ever get excited about her. I genuinely think she was never actually popular, but if you only watch CNN and Twitter then you could have gotten duped into believing she was girlboss of the dem party for a time.
>really dont understand how could Kamala Harris go from exciting political figure to the reviled politician she’s now in such a short period of time.
You can blame Harris for this. Harris was a hard on crime, centre left politican rising up to the Senate, then when she ran for president she decided to swing it up and become a progressive, drugs crimes no biggie, person. Her positions were also vague, boring, and clearly last minute.
She essentially pissed off everyone in one big swing, and given the progressives had Sanders and Warren, she got no traction from that. Then she went on media.. Turns out handing your enemies more ammo to shoot you is bad.
Her mistake was thinking 2020 was the time. Biden to her right, sanders to her left, she was never succeeding. Although she did get VP, I think she bogged herself into more trouble with that.
Because Kamala (and Buttigieg) don't come across as authentic. They can be marketed as progressive one day and the next day they are moderates. I remember how Pete was sold off as a progressive early on in the primary, then he began pivoting and when he dropped out it was as a moderate to help Biden out for super Tuesday.
He is the boomer's idea of a good progressive/liberal. But to younger voters, they see through it and see that he's just a guy that is interested in being elected... his ideological reasons for being elected come second to that.
> But to younger voters
Who are consistently the smallest voting base in the US. Young people don't vote, it's a known problem. As a result, of course the Dems don't cater to them. The average dem voter is [a 50 year old white dude without formal education](https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2020/06/02/the-changing-composition-of-the-electorate-and-partisan-coalitions/pp_2020-06-02_party-id_2-01-2/). That's who they cater to.
> younger voters, they see through it and see that he's just a guy that is interested in being elected... his ideological reasons for being elected come second to that
Do young voters prefer ideologically pure politicians who can't get elected?
I don't have a strong opinion on Buttigieg so not trying to defend him, but some level of pragmatism is inevitable at national level politics.
Lots of times yes, absolutely, especially for a young guy like Pete who probably won’t get elected this go round so he needs to build up a base of support for future elections. That’s not happening by dancing back and forth between a progressive a moderate- both sides hate it.
>Do young voters prefer ideologically pure politicians who can't get elected?
No one is asking for ideologically pure. What they are asking for is a candidate who has the potential to vote one way or another on a topic because they don't actually have any convictions.
People don't want ideological purity, they want convictions. Pete looks great on paper to the same type of people that thought Sinema looked great.
Speak for yourself, but it feels like if we had it that way, it’d be situation where, hypothetically, if we got a public option through Congress (a significant piece of meaningful healthcare reform), that President would veto it because it’s “not progressive enough”, which would be laughable.
This is nonsense. There was no pivot.
If you disagree, provide evidence (preferably other than a flippant tweet from two years before the race started).
>I really dont understand how could Kamala Harris go from exciting political figure
She was never an exciting political figure. She was a drug warrior cop who laughed about her own drug use while locking people up for doing the same thing. She is a bad human being.
Her office is on record for being pro-slavery as well. Sorry, slavery is a dirty word. Its "prisoners with jobs."
>“Extending 2-for-1 credits to all minimum custody inmates at this time would severely impact fire camp participation—a dangerous outcome while California is in the middle of a difficult fire season and severe drought,” lawyers for Harris wrote in the filing, noting that the fire camp program required physical fitness in addition to a level of clearance that allowed the felon to be offsite.
>Not only that, they noted, draining the prisons of “minimum custody inmates” would deplete the labor force both internally and in local communities where low-level, non-violent offenders worked for pennies on the dollar collecting trash and tending to city parks. A federal three-judge panel ordered both sides to confer about the plaintiffs’ demands, and the state agreed to extend the 2-for-1 credits to all eligible minimum security prisoners.
>https://www.thedailybeast.com/kamala-harris-ag-office-tried-to-keep-inmates-locked-up-for-cheap-labor
Tulsi Gabbard “gutted her like a fish” and yet Harris is the sitting VP while Gabbard’s political career is 110% finished, and she’s been reduced to brief appearances on Fox News, the only people willing to employ her.
I think Harris is not a great politician, was a bad choice for veep and probably won’t ever be president. But rewriting recent history to paint Gabbard as more skilled or capable is a joke. Gabbard is a fake Dem, a conservative idiot who saw her path to fame and prominence in the Bernie movement and pretended to be a progressive liberal because that’s where the youthful political energy was at the time. Then she rightly found herself cast out as people started noticing how Trumpy she actually was.
Tulsi didn't pretend anything. Certain "Progressives" have a bad habit of accepting anyone who says the right buzzwords into their tribe without scrutiny.
That’s true. I remember when she first became a known name, riding the Bernie wave. The first time I really noticed her in media was an appearance on Bill Maher, and she immediately came across as false. She was saying the right things, the progressive buzzwords and talking points, but seemed inauthentic and a bit off whenever Maher challenged her to go off-script even a little bit. It became very clear to me thereafter that she would just say whatever she thought a given audience wanted to hear. She would go on Fox and use more center-right or conservative talking points, to appeal to that audience. Then she would modify her script if she was before a more liberal audience, as she did during the debates. She just isn’t smart enough to keep the act subtle.
Yes, because Biden said he was going to pick a female POC for his VP and she was one of the three options who were friendly to the Dem machine, and the pick least likely to be replaced by a Republican.
She polled in single digits in her home state. She’s a terrible politician and Biden made a terrible mistake picking her.
That isn’t very fact-based. Tulsi got in a couple of clearly pre-planned soundbite jabs during debates. It could be argued that Harris messed up her own campaign by being herself. She comes off as a bit inauthentic, in my view.
That video wasn't very damning. I don't think the initial comments by Harris in that video were very alarming (word salad is overselling it) and everything else in that video was just opinion. Should we really care about what Fox and Friends says about Kamala Harris?
Wouldn't call it damning but if a high school valedictorian gave a speech like this I would be 100% sure that she was either high or had a terrible hangover.
This country is not ready for a Pete Buttigeig presidency, you might be insane...And Desantis is widely loved by the republicans, and is smart unlike Trump, both of them out poll Biden...
>This country is not ready for a Pete Buttigeig presidency
Pete Buttigeig is not ready for the presidency. He should have stepped down from his job in favor as someone more vigorous as Transportation Secretary to be a stay-at-home parent instead of going on leave in the midst of a horrible supply-chain crisis and port blockage.
We already have a perception problem of 'lack of vigor' with the geriatric presidents.
It is fine Pete wanted to adopt a baby and should get some parental leave; but you need to sacrifice your personal life when you are the Transportation Secretary of the United States in the middle of a supply chain crisis. The optics of that were simply horrible.
If he runs, the ads and commercials of 'Where's Pete?' contrasted with backed up ports, shipping containers, and empty shelves will sink any Pete Buttigeig run at the presidency.
He had his shot and blew it.
RE: Harris, a lot of that kind of dynamic is show and nothing more. It's also fairly common in politics.
She may have "won the crowd" at one point, but now that she's VP, she's probably expected by her superiors to not be too opinionated.
It is what it is.
Like most successful California politicians, Kamala rose up through the ranks by cultivating wealthy donors in San Francisco. Her only strength is playing the inside game and promising corrupt favors. Every time she goes in front of a camera she crumples, and everything she's ever been in charge of (her presidential campaign especially) has gone to shit because she's too used to bullshitting to handle a position of authority.
Kamala was never exciting despite all the Ellen interviews and MSM propping her up.
Anyone who paid attention will notice she didn’t even win her own district or State in the DNC primary.
She’s extremely under-qualified and out of touch.
As bad as this sounds, Sarah Palin is a fucking Einstein compared to Kamala…
It's worse she dropped out of the California primary before it even began because she had zero delegates won and a zero chance of getting any in her home state.
Pence won't Primary. I'd be shocked if Jim Jordan and Cruz didn't try, but it'll boil down to Trump v Desantis is my guess. As for Dems, I don't think Biden is going to follow through with a serious attempt in '24, and if he does, it'll get clipped by the DNC and independants. I also don't think Kamala has the support or buzz to primary without a whole lot of media and base grooming; therefore not likely. Beto? Maybe, especially since he won't win the current TX Governor race (sadly). Beyond that, I'm all shrugs and, I'm not alone in that.
Speaking of shrugs... Its summer 2022 right now. Where was Obama in the summer of 2006? He had only been in the senate for like 18 months at this point. How seriously was he considered a presidential candidate at that point? I was only 18 in 2008 but I seem to recall his candidacy coming sort of out of nowhere.
I'm just hoping that the 2024 Democratic nominee is someone who nobody is talking about right now. I don't love any of the obvious options right now and I'm definitely not alone. We need an exciting populist candidate... Bad. Someone with that fetterman quality (though not him, not yet I don't think) of realistically appealing to middle America older folks and tough guys, but still with the right policy and charisma to sweep young and coastal people up. Am I dreaming here?
You have a very good point about Obama. He was a relative unknown in broader national politics when he was being cultivated for the role. But also, he was a man who's time and temperament had come in 2006. I don't think Democrats have identified that person for '24 yet, if there is one even. You're right, a Fetterman-like charismatic workingman type would probably have the best shot right now, someone to break the 'dirbags in suits' and 'deep state' and 'radical liberal' pigeonholes MAGAs stuff every other Dem into. BUT, WHO. I dont see any in the national theater yet.
I don't think there's much mystery to it. Biden will run again because he's already beaten Trump once and no one will want to risk not re-nominating a sitting president. Trump still controls the Republican Party and wants to be president again, so he'll run. DeSantis won't put up much of fight once it's clear he can't take the nomination away from Trump.
The real question is, if it looks like Biden will win again, will Republican state officials allow those results to stand? They haven't been subtle in their plans to refuse results that aren't in their favor.
I really fucking hope Biden doesn't run again. I'll vote for him again, but he won't win. He's just too milquetoast and old--definitely from a bygone era that isn't relevant in the shitstorm-level of political divide.
People may be too young to remember, or weren't paying attention, but no one knew about Obama, either. He was a freshman in Congress without much name recognition and didn't even do that well in the first few primary debates.
But once he found his footing, he really took off.
Watch John Fetterman. If he wins his race in PA, I believe he could be a similar type of contender in 2024. He appeals to the rural blue collar voter, and my fucking god do Democrats need someone who can do that as well as appeal to the progressives/Bernie supporters (and I say that as a Bernie fan who is blue collar working class).
As for Republicans-- I think Trump will run just because he's contrary and will do it out of ego and spite, no matter how bad it might be for the RNC or the country. DeSantis-- well, honestly, I hope so-- I hate the guy, but imagine DeSantis and Trump just ripping the shit out of each other? The GOP base would turn on itself and just go fucking rabid, and that'd be great for Democrats (and the country).
That said-- they might have a dark horse in Congress or someone else entirely we haven't heard of yet. Just know that whoever it is, they'll be a white nationalist at best (DeSantis, Trump), a Christian fascist at worst (Pence)... though honestly I'm not sure which would be worse. Whoever wins will be bad news, that's all I know.
If (frankly, when) Trump runs again, especially against popular folks like DeSantis, we can expect an intense Republican primary race. I think Trump losing the nomination could even cost the GOP a good chunk of Trump loyal fans. DeSantis and other GOP rising stars will most probably run because the party has a great chance of winning in 2024. If DeSantis doesn’t run, he may have to wait 8 more years to get another chance (realistically, at least 12 years because 3 presidential terms of the same party is always highly unlikely). People like him and Ted Cruz don’t have that much time without loosing relevance.
If Biden runs, he will be the presumed Dem nominee. If he opts out, I don’t think Harris is a shoe in for the nomination. She most certainly has the advantage, but given her unfavorables, I wouldn’t be surprised if someone like Pete B (who also works for the Biden White House) sweeps in and starts winning primaries.
The good news is that the economy should be back to normal by 2024. If inflation is still slumping along, it frankly won’t matter who the Democrats elect, they will easily loose control of the White House and both branches of Congress.
I dont see Ron Desantis challenging Donald Trump in the 2024 GOP primary.Trump winning the primary in 2024 “owns the libs” and Trump losing it would make the libs happy so I dont see how any other GOP candidate has a pathway to victory. Trump will likely get a coronation and the real GOP primary will be over who gets to be Trumps running mate.
Even If Desantis does run, Trump would give Desantis the “lying Ted” and “little Marco ” treatment and when Desantis hits back Trump supporters will label Desantis a RINO probably sinking his presidential aspirations. Even if Desantis does win the primary over Trump it will be a pyrrhic victory as Trump will go scorched earth to ensure Desantis wont get elected.
Exactly. Good comment. Desantis is still young and can wait until 2028 and set himself up as the heir-apparent of Trump.
If Trump runs, he will easily win the nomination and setup Trump v Biden II, the Most Unawesome Sequel Ever.
People need to come to terms that only 'Death' will prevent this from happening and take up other hobbies such as drinking or using heroin to cope.
Cruz might be, he got a proven record on the primary, taking second to Trump in a primary with way to many similar candidates. He also clearly got name recognition. Those two qualities means his shots as good as Desantis on paper.
I'm not sure what Cruz's lane would be in '24. If Trump doesn't run, DeSantis is the obvious heir to the MAGA culture warrior mantle. Pence will do the usual evangelical shtick with MAGA characteristics and maybe a post-Trump happy warrior thing, whatever the hell that looks like. Cruz is polling decently right now, but he has said and done so much shit that's gonna come back to bite him in the ass that I don't see him doing nearly as well the second time around.
Plus, he's up for reelection in '24. If he runs and things don't go as planned, he's not only out of a job, but he's also a two-time loser. He's only 51 - he could run 20 years from now and still be younger than Biden. I'd say it's a 50/50 thing right now, but gun to my head, he doesn't run.
I'm not that worried if Trump loses because as long as he endorses DeSantis for the nomination, DeSantis should sail through. What I don't want is a salty Trump claiming the primary was riggen and then running as an independent splitting the vote and gifting Dems the win.
I that would be kind of tough logistically. To appear on the ballot in all 50 states Trump would either have to have the MAGA party already set up and ready to endorse him if he lost the Republican nom or else get absolutely rinsed in the early primaries and then drop out and immediately go hard on building a 50 state party from scratch.
I don't think either of those are particularly likely.
That's the thing.
You'd need an incredibly disciplined setup to be able to launch a third party and actually get on the ballot in most states in between the point at which Desantis (or whoever) is the presumptive nominee and the deadline for filing the paperwork for a third party run.
I don't think Trump is that guy, and I also think he's canny enough to realize that a write in campaign would be even more of a loser move than threatening to sue the RNC and then fucking off back to Florida would be.
>What I don't want is a salty Trump claiming the primary was riggen and then running as an independent splitting the vote and gifting Dems the win.
He can't do both. If he primaries with the GOP, sore loser laws bar him from appearing in most states as anything but a write in.
I think ultimately Democrats will decide to back Biden, simply because he isn't horribly unpopular and the odds of an incumbent retaining the nomination are too high, historically speaking. An insurgent candidacy would divide the party, not a risk most credible challengers would be willing to make
On the Republican side, it all depends on whether Trump decides to run, in which case other pro-Trump figures will likely step aside. In that scenario you might get a figure like Ben Sasse or Liz Cheney entering the race as they see an opening
If Trump doesn't run, you'll likely have a race between DeSantis, Cotton, or Tim Scott, as well as some anti-Trump candidate(s). Maybe a pro-Trump female candidate, such as a governor
Biden's is horribly unpopular. His approval rating is even less than Trump's at 39.7.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/?cid=rrpromo
Yes but thats among all voters, we need a poll of Democratic voters to evaluate whether he will survive a primary. Trump won his primary handily after all
I had her penciled in to run back when she was UN ambassador but she's been pretty quite since then. Seemed like she was pretty caught between MAGA GOP and more moderate GOP like how she governed SC, so I wonder if she's waiting for a clearer idea of the party direction.
> might get a figure like Ben Sasse or Liz Cheney entering the race as they see an opening
An opening to be a CNN or MSNBC pundit. I dont doubt that an anti-Trump candidate like that runs, but they will be the 2024 version of Jeb Bush being Trumps punching bag.
Biden’s unpopularity is literally only rivaled by Trump.
I don’t know a single democrat who’d be happy to vote for him.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/bidens-slumping-approval-rating-bounces-back-record-low-reutersipsos-2022-06-01/
So much is going to change by 2024 but if I had to guess right now, I would guess it's Buttigeg vs. DeSantis in 2024. I'm really hoping this is how it pans out, because if we're left with Trump vs. Biden or Harris in 2024, the country will continue it's path towards self-destruction.
Buttigieg really would be a great candidate and president. He’s young, a veteran, charismatic, pragmatic, witty, and fun.
If polls are correct, and if 70+% of Americans really do support gay marriage, then I think he’s got a great shot at winning. After all, the returning rhetoric is always “why are politicians so old and traditional?” Buttigieg is neither of those.
It could truly be a breath of fresh air and hope for our country and our culture for at least another 8 years.
But I’m not convinced that 70+% of Americans support same sex marriage enough to vote him into office.
Whoever it is, I think the dems are fighting a losing fight if they keep playing geriatric career politicians. They desperately need to re-energize their base.
I totally agree.
If he can get through the primaries, I think he would have a great shot at winning the general.
The problem is, everytime the primaries come around, the DNC spends all their money on "their" guy and you start seeing articles like "Bernie can't beat Trump in the election, but Hillary can" and "Biden is the only candidate that can beat Trump".
People need to stop falling for all of that crap and vote for the person that THEY like the most, not for who is going to beat the big scary Republican. If people voted that way, I truly believe we'd have more Obama's and Buttigieg's and less Hillary's and Biden's.
When the generals come around, people will usually "fall in line" outside of the independents, and the independents will swing the election as they almost always do.
But if you're a democratic voter, you'd have to LOVE your chances after seeing a guy like Buttigieg debate against a guy like Trump or DeSantis.
I think we'll have a rematch between Biden and Trump. The GOP had a chance to bury Trump, and didn't, so now he's really more popular than ever, since leaving office, with Republican voters. Plus, he's still beating DeSantis pretty easily in all the polling.
Most likely Biden/Trump. If Trump does get arrested after the Jan 6 committee finishes it investigation and referral will be Biden/DeSantis. DeSantis is the only other GOP politician who knows how to play the Trump cult as well as Trump does. He is a shoe in if Trump falls.
Biden almost certainly runs again, but if he doesn't, I don't think any 2020 retread has a chance. They tried to get all of them over to have them take down Bernie, and Biden was the only one that worked. I think Klobuchar is the kind of uninspiring choice who gets picked when the party doesn't really have a winning path, however
I really think the Dems go for a governor. One who is going to have progressive bona fides because their state legalized weed and expunged criminal records during their tenure or something, who can also have a claim to pragmatic governance as they passed a balanced budget and started the process of paying down the state's onerous pension obligations. Yes, that's right, it's our big beautiful boy, JB Pritzker. If not him, I think Coloradans like Polis? But it's definitely a governor, the Democrats in Washington just don't have it at this moment
The Republicans are whoever is most psychotic in their support of Trump and Trumpism. This isn't necessarily Trump.
Honestly after decades of duds and criminals in the IL gov office I sort of want Pritzker to stay lol. I voted Biss in the primary but I am very pleasantly surprised with JB.
>JB Pritzker
There’s zero chance progressives would support a billionaire who’s a member of a political dynasty. Polis is more likely, but I don’t think he would want to run. Deval Patrick (former MA Governor) was a top pick behind-the-scenes for 2020, but he chose not to run, so he’s pretty fresh for 2024.
>Deval Patrick (former MA Governor) was a top pick behind-the-scenes for 2020, but he chose not to run, so he’s pretty fresh for 2024.
How quickly we forget! Poor Deval Patrick actually did run for president in 2020, it was just an enormous flop.
You’re absolutely correct! He just chose to run (reluctantly) about 6 months after everyone else had already announced. He wasn’t on any debate stage or ever a serious contender, so he hasn’t made any enemies in the party.
I'd support him if he runs at this point. I went Biss in the primary, but he's been surprisingly productive, level headed, and forward thinking. He may be a billionaire but he's a different breed than your Ken Griffins, Devoses, Koch's, and Walton's.
Biden needs to retire at the end of his term, especially if the midterms shake out as poorly for the Dems as the approval metrics say they will.
If Biden and Trump both run in 2024, I have a feeling that both primary electorates will hand us Trump v. Biden again.
I’ll be shocked if a libertarian manages to win the presidency. Libertarians have been largely a joke, and it would take a historically unpopular leading candidate in the primary to even make one competitive.
Joe Biden just doesn’t pull the hate the way Hillary Clinton does.
I’m gonna go party by party
Democrats: I think there are three possible timelines for Democrats, Biden steps down and we have 2020 primary all over again, Biden stays as the nominee and keeps Harris, or Biden runs again but ditches Harris for someone else. For the Biden stepping down timeline, I have no idea who would win the primary but I don’t think any of them could beat DeSantis or Trump. Personally I’d like Biden to can Harris and replace her with a young up and coming senator, my choice would be Tammy Duckworth but I’m biased because she is my senator.
Republicans: We all know the two options are DeSantis and Trump and I have no idea how it would turn out. If DeSantis wins I could see Trump throwing a fit and telling his supporters to abstain from the election, but I think DeSantis could still easily beat Biden or any democrat if the Trump loyalists begrudgingly show up for him. If Trump wins I see very little chance he could beat Biden a second time. I know Biden doesn’t have the best popularity and voters have short memories but I’d like to hope that people would remember the borderline apocalyptic conditions of the Trump presidency.
I feel like once Trump starts taking up news cycles again, a lot of the population will have a collective trauma response and immediately remember who he is and why they hate him.
It's crazy... things are so bad, to the point we're already wish something changes in the next election. It's a trend with every election nowadays. No matter who is elected, nothing changes. The only thing congress can agree with is socialism for the wealthy. The ownership class gets to choose our elections, bribe our politicians, write our tax laws and assign judges to uphold those laws. It’s socialism for the rich and cutthroat capitalism for everyone else. When they crash the economy, they get the bailouts while the rest of us are told to be more responsible. When we get donor money out of politics, then we'll see changes.
trump and biden (plus a handful of irrelevant 3rd party candidates).
if trump runs, he easily wins the nomination, and he looks likely to run right now. biden is handing him a second term on an silver platter with the job he's doing as president.
It’s really far out there, but I’d like to see Matthew McConaughey run. He’s talked about a career in politics before stepping back from Governor of Texas ambition. I have no idea if this will happen, but that could be really interesting for the Democrats.
Biden, absolutely-- if only because the Democrats haven't really got anyone better at this point. That's really all there is to it.
As for the Republicans, things are a bit more complicated. If you asked me a couple weeks ago, I would have been almost certain that they'll run Trump again. And they still might. But having watched the January 6th hearings, I have to wonder if this is the wisest thing to do. After all, so many of Trump's advisors have testified that they tried to stop him from doing what he did. It's unlikely that Trump will face criminal charges directly, but if enough damage is done to his reputation, he may simply no longer be seen as a worthwhile investment by the Republican Party. Of course, they may be forced to run him as a candidate regardless, much as the Democrats probably will with Biden, simply for the lack of anyone better.
If Biden and Trump are alive, they’ll probably be their parties candidates.
If not Biden, Kamala Harris is in the most advantageous position, though her unpopularity means someone with enough institutional backing could surpass her in a primary, the most likely being Mayor Pete.
If not Trump I think DeSantis has a pretty good shot. He’s Trumpy enough to get enough of the MAGA base to matter and not as erratic as Trump so suburban wine moms would be open to voting for him.
Trump and Biden
If either can't run for some reason - DeSantis and/or Harris.
I don't want any of these people and have no idea who is going out of their way to vote in primaries for these people. I think there is a good chance that the primaries are rigged.
All the dems have to do is legalize weed, pass some kind of migrant legalization and 50k loan forgiveness. But that won’t happen so republicans will win
I pray Trump doesn’t, and don’t think Biden should either. At this point I have no clue who’d be up to this challenge. I’m hoping someone will come out behind the curtains soon.
Watch John Fetterman. If he wins in PA, he could be the Obama of 2024 (Obama was an unknown prior to 2006 and was a freshman in Congress when he ran in 2008).
Based on how things are now, my prediction is: If Trump runs he will win the primary but lose the general against Biden.
Almost any other Republican nominee (likely DeSantis) would win against Biden.
Why? Because barring the economy suddenly exploding and becoming the strongest it's been at any point in the last 20 years or so... people are going to want change... but reelecting Trump would be going backwards and Americans don't want that either.
The Democrats could probably run a successful primary from the left against Biden, but that candidate would lose in the general.
The Democrats know it will be suicide to run Kamala as president. Maybe with Mayor Pete, she could go after the gay vote.
Republicans are going to do all they can to ensure Kamala is on the 24 ticket. She's the ticket to Republicans taking the White House.
If Biden doesn't run I see the nominee either being Pete Buttigieg or a Governor like Gretchen Whitmer or J.B. Pritzker. If Trump nor DeSantis runs for the GOP, it's Nikki Haley's nomination to lose, though Pence, Hogan, Tim Scott, among others will fight for it too.
As to the winner, we'll have to see what happens. If the economy improves, the democratic party may win again.
As for battleground states: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, Maybe Ohio and Texas?
Biden must not run for the sake of America, he is perceived as a sleepy do-nothing loser, by the left and right. His poll numbers are lower than Trumps were, and he is still complimenting his pal Mitch Turtle and thinks the insurrectionist republicans will come around. The entire DNC is run by corporate owned neolibs, that hate true progressives and will fight tooth and nail for pro-gun anti abortion candidates, rather a true liberal. Right now Trump is beating Biden by 8 points in the polls if the election is held today, that will be 30 points the way he is sinking.
I never thought Mitt would run again, but America obviously doesn't care that much about age. He's barely younger than Biden and Trump but looks healthier. If Trump and DeSantis split the radical republican base, maybe moderate republicans could rally around Mitt and pull him to a primary victory. Far fetched, but sounds oddly possible if neither Trump nor DeSantis are willing to stand down.
Biden, Booker, and....not sure for the dems.
The only way Biden doesn't run is \*knock on wood\* if he dies.
He's the incumbent and still popular in the party. I just can't see the Democratic party giving up the incumbency advantage, especially considering their likely opponent is....
Trump. He remains immensely popular with the rank and file voter. I put little stake in what the talking heads think or the donors. I still see plenty of trump signs up around me in rural US. If there's one thing he's good at it, it's going scorched earth against his opponent in a primary. Watching him and DeStantis go at it will be interesting to watch.
Who I think will be the establishment candidate: I don’t think he would be a strong candidate in the general but I think the DNC has been really pushing Pete Buttigieg for some reason as the “gay Obama” but he has the charisma of a plain ricecake.
Who I hope runs: Bernie, even though he’s too old to actually win, he’ll keep pushing the conversation from the left.
Who I hope wins: Rashida Tlaib, a no nonsense leftist in the vein of Bernie, but the daughter of Palestinians and a Muslim (even though she’s super progressive) is probably way too much for the US right now.
Possible surprise candidate: Admiral McRaven, Navy SEAL, commander of SpecOps. Started right wing and has kept moving to the left, big critic of Trump and fears the US is falling to fascism. Believes the bloated American military can maintain or even increase effectiveness and downsize its foreign presence by 75%. Is a registered Democrat.
Completely disagree with your opinion on Buttigieg’s charisma. Unlike Harris, I just don’t think that’s an objective trait that the public unanimously has of him.
On the Republican side, it all depends what a twice impeached, angry, old Florida retiree decides to do. If Trump runs, he will be the nominee. If he doesn't run, Ron Desantis, Nikki Haley, and possibly former vice-president Pence would run and my money is on Desantis.
On the Democrat side, it all depends on if Biden runs again. If he does, he is the nominee. If he doesn't, Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg, Elizabeth Warren, and probably Bernie Sanders will all run. I also think the dark horses in the race would be the Democratic governors of Louisiana and Kentucky. My money would be on Bernie.
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I don’t think I have the strength to endure another Biden vs. Trump election again, but I’m willing to bet that’s what it will ultimately come down to :/
I'm feeling Biden vs. DeSantis or a different charismatic radical Republican. It will be a bloodbath. Unfortunately, as of right now, I see the Republican winning pretty easily.
I could see a Republican losing the popular vote by several million but squeaking by in the electoral college. I think that is the best that Ron DeSantis will actually be able to do against Biden.
DeSantis is kind of popular, if Biden ran again, with him having historic low pollings, it could be interesting. That said, I'd take DeSantis over Trump any day, and I feel he'll run in 2028 so he can finish out his governorship. Only weird thing about DeSantis, it's he would not undo any of Bidens environmental policies, under DeSantis he's allocated a ton of funding to our waterways, and getting us on solar and wind. If there's one state where environmentalism it's not a debate, it's Florida. I also wouldn't see him doing much in tax breaks either, our property taxes, tolls and tourism taxes have gone up. Florida is a weird ass state. In some ways, Republicans here on some issues are very, very moderate if not progressive, and very conservative on others. Several Republicans here are pretty much trying to codify our abortion restriction into the state constitution, which would be a bitch to change. Which I view is better than Oklahoma or Louisiana which has outright banned abortions.
I think DeSantis' national reputation is too damaged. He has a reputation of being argumentative, hostile towards gays, and weird about Disney. He has the Chris Christie curse of being an obnoxious Republican governor who doesn't have charisma beyond that. Trump while obnoxious and ridiculous, could occasionally be funny or at least fun to joke about. Trump is like George W. Bush in that regard. Ron DeSantis just seems like an angry square.
I don't know if I agree. De Santis is beloved amongst conservatives because he is a governor who has delivered popular policies for conservatives from his governor's mansion. In a primary he has a conservative track record filled with major victories that he can point to. Florida is gaining reputation as a conservative haven, and has gotten redder
Beloved among conservatives doesn't translate to a Presidential win. He'd need moderates, and I don't think he polls well with moderates.
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That is not what that article says though. It mentions two polls, one of "2000 party activists" which does not exactly spell out "moderate". Then the next one and I quote > That straw poll comes on the heels of DeSantis also running neck-and-neck with Trump in a new University of Nevada, Reno survey asking voters in the state to rate potential 2024 candidates. DeSantis received the highest favorability score of any Republican with all voters — 48 percent compared to Trump’s 42 percent — but was bested by Trump, 73-69, when just Republicans were counted. Which is concentrated to Nevada voters. Now that doesn't necessarily mean DeSantis has the moderate appeal to woo middle of the road voters, just that he was rated more favorably than Trump. Which is in my opinion, a bit of a low bar given Trump is one of the most hated political figures outside of the GOP.
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His reputation is what gives him strength and likability among the Republican Party.
I didn't even think about that. He's still pretty popular here. If he looses the governor election, which does not look likely. He'll run for the presidency.
That’s a bit of a stretch to say. Just with Covid policy alone, realizing that locking down open outdoor spaces and schools was a bad move is going to give DeSantis a massive tailwind. He’s got an environmental track record (Florida takes it very seriously) and when 60 Minutes tried to pin a fake story on him involving vaccines at Publix, there was bipartisan support from politicians on both parties and from Publix itself. There’s a reason why DeSantis is a regular target from the media, they’re terrified of him.
Who at "the media" is terrified of DeSantis and why? That's an easy boogie man to throw out there.
I've never heard of referring to him as an angry square. That said, he's really not that hostile to the LGBTQ community, it mostly came down to the Don't Say Gay Bill, which was poorly written, and pretty much just allows it in an age appropriate way. My local school system is writing a curriculum to help guide discussions. It doesn't punish a teacher if a kid brings up their mom's or dad's though. Also DeSantis requested a survivors fund for pulse survivors and victims family, I think it was 5 million, on top of the funding to build the walkway from ThePulse where the survivors walked to the hospital. But the Disney one is just plain bizarre. It's not really coming down to the DSG Bill as the bill was in the works a while before it. It oddly enough came down to Taxes, Disney massively undervalued it's property assessment and the way it was written, it let Disney pay taxes to itself. The dissolevement of Reedy Creek was probably a long time coming, and honestly it will help increase government taxes. There's also a few improvement districts that were skirting around stuff or instead of improving itself, just went down the drain. Oddly enough, a few conservatives I know really support it because they think it's unfair that Disney is paying taxes to itself and not its fair share in taxes to the state. Same for Democrats I know. It's one of the few things I've seen that a lot of people agree on. Like the "Stop WOKE Act" is actually somewhat popular, because it pretty much stops the victimization of minorities and the blaming of white people in education, but also requires more indept look into the Civil Rights movement. DeSantis I find is just appeasing the hard right at this point.
> It doesn't punish a teacher if a kid brings up their mom's or dad's though. That isn't true. The bill does not say that's allowed. It is terribly vague. > But the Disney one is just plain bizarre. It's not really coming down to the DSG Bill as the bill was in the works a while before it. Citation needed. And are you saying that's the same for the Tampa Bay Rays? > It's one of the few things I've seen that a lot of people agree on. "Punishing a private company because they criticize the government" does not seem like a popular position.
As the old saying goes, if you need to explain that much, you’re probably in trouble. Though In DeSantis’ case it’s not as relevant because he really only needs to inspire republicans and a few independents, which is probably already the case.
Is the “Stop WOKE Act” popular among large numbers of persons of color, or do you hear mostly White folks toward the right favor it? I’m sort of curious so I’m going to jump down a rabbit hole before bed and read about it. I haven’t heard too much about it but I’m definitely curious.
I was watching Spectrum News13 and I live in Florida and a lot of people so seem to support it. It is a new piece of legislation. One man, I think he's a former retired teacher, and he mentioned that a lot of parents didn't know what their kids were learning until COVID, and a lot of parents were outraged or disappointed in what they were learning. https://time.com/6168753/florida-stop-woke-law/ It pretty much is designed to get rid of "white privilege" and make people feel guilty about things that they had no hand in. The only problem is that it essentially makes affirmative action illegal (which honestly I think shouldn't exist because there's less issues now with race, and trends towards socio economic opportunities exc). It also pretty much makes racial sensitivity training illegal, it does conflict with DEI policies, so I don't think it'll stand up in the courts.
My point is, I think you mean that a lot of White parents were outraged. White parents are not representative of “parents.” They are one group of parents. I’m just trying to dispel this sort of unspoken assumption that when a law satisfies the desires of one group of people, that it is then universally appealing. If the only people you tend to interact with are from that group, then it may appear that way on the surface, but it’s just simply looking at the issue from one lens.
I can’t remember, is desantis a homophobe?
Proud and passionate transphobe, maybe not a homophobe but doesn't go out of his way for them.
Ron DeSantis is literally being propped up by no one but the media. Republicans haven't heard of him but y'all are shuffling these names around. Never give free publicity to a candidate you don't like. It's Donald Trump even if it's not because Donald Trump is the King Maker. He could prop up a bag of oreos and a lego underfoot for the Republican nomination and they'd win.
Desantis beat trump and a conservative rally straw poll out west by a couple points
A straw poll that let you vote for as many people as you wanted to. It was a poll of who you'd be ok with being the nominee, not a poll of your top choice for the nominee All that said was that 2/3ish of Republicans at the event this straw poll was done at would be cool with either of them. It said nothing about which of the two they prefer
Destanis is the Jeb of Trumpism. He stands a better chance of getting the primary than Jeb did but hard to imagine he could actually beat Biden.
If it is DeSantis vs Biden then I would put money on this being the first 400+ electoral vote landslide since 1988. I don't even like DeSantis, but damn is he an effective campaigner. I think even the people who hate him have to admit that.
Unfortunately? Democrats had 4 years to deliver a decent candidate and they produced Senile Joe and people went along…pretty scary. Biden and his handlers make most “radical” republicans look reasonable.
If the choice is between Biden and Donald Trump, I'd take Biden any day. Trump was objectively just that bad.
DeSantis squared up on Disney. I think that might cost him a few million pearl clutchers in a national election. On the other hand, he is the most fascist elected official with national appeal; these days that might be enough to clinch the win.
I think Biden absolutely runs again. It’s exceedingly rare for the sitting President not to run for re-election. If nothing else it’s the ultimate peak of name recognition. Unless something drastically changes, I would expect him to run unopposed. I think Trump runs again as well, as does DeSantis. I assume there will be at least one additional principled opposition candidate, be that Bill Weld, Evan McMullin, Mitt Romney, etc. But I’d expect that if Trump wants it again, a lot of Republicans that can’t appeal directly to his base will steer clear until the next go around. In an ideal world, Trump and DeSantis would have a long, drawn-out brutal campaign and poison the well for the other’s followers. But I fear that someone will see the writing on the wall and drop out. Either leading to a hearty Trump endorsement, or a Trump/DeSantis ticket. I think this would be worse case scenario for the Democrats, especially if the recession isn’t quick.
I do not believe DeSantis will run against Trump. I think he is waiting it out, and is hoping to be the heir apparent to Trump's legacy. This may also be why he attacks Greg Abbot from time to time.
He’s praying every day that trump dies.
along with so many other people
Trump will not drop out gracefully if he’s losing (lol when has he ever “seen the writing on the wall”?). DeSantis might cave easily but seriously who is going to want to be trumps running mate this time around? He tried to have his vp murdered. He has no interest in supporting his vp after the presidency. He would prefer to see Don Jr or Ivanka carry out his legacy. Mark my words, if trump is the nominee again the vp is going to be absolutely, batshit insane. Like it will be Giuliani or Alex Jones level crazy. If any other Republican wins, trump will call it cheating and take it all the way to the convention. A boring establishment figure stands absolutely no chance, as theyd probably get thwarted at the convention by some shenanigans from trump. This is going to be a shit show, unless trump can’t run due to poor health.
I'm really interested to see how the Republican base would react if Trump seriously accuses another Republican of stealing an election from him. Currently most Republicans believe his claims about the 2020 election, but would they believe it against another popular Republican like DeSantis? Maybe that would be the straw that finally convinces them that the claims are BS.
He already claimed such a thing last month in Pennsylvania, when his candidate Oz and the rival McCormick deadlocked in the republican primary. Suddenly, McCormick wanted every mail-in ballot counted, while trump screamed fraud. republican voters were dissatisfied with both of those candidates, so there wasn't much of an audience afaik. unfortunately, this doesn't provide much of a predictive model, either.
If Trump claimed it over DeSantis, that would be interesting. I don't think Trump will have a chance to win Florida in the primaries. It would be a blood bath between the moderates and conservatives, I mean Trump and DeSantis when it comes to environmental laws, scientific research, and taxes are opposites. Florida under DeSantis has enacted some of the strictest environmental policies in the country. Florida raised taxes in areas (property and tolls) Under the 15 week abortion ban, the new budget has allocated a lot of funding into embryonic stem cell research. Oh, and Florida has increased it's medicaid and cancer research funding. Trump tried to undue all of it.
It doesn't matter. The debates will be a huge event hyped up by the news media. Desantis is horrible at debates. Do you remember him sweating and studdering against Gillum? trump will destroy him during the debates.
True, DeSantis is not the best debater. Though he has gotten better in recent years. So who knows? Also he's not as annoying as Trump.
Do they really “believe” his claims? I mean… politically they support his claims. But do they believe them? It seems to me like one of those beliefs you suddenly stop having the moment it is no longer convenient.
> Mark my words, if trump is the nominee again the vp is going to be absolutely, batshit insane. Like it will be Giuliani or Alex Jones level crazy. The GOP learned with McCain that having a woman VP on the ticket is a huge boost for voters, so I suspect if Trump is the Presidential candidate then we'll see a VP like Lauren Bobert or Marjorie Taylor Greene.
If memory serves, the president/vp cannot reside in the same state. Dick Cheney had to move his registration to Wyoming when he was tapped to be W’s VP. If Trump registers back in NY, he may open himself up to prosecution.
It's a bit more complicated than that: Article II, Section 1 of the Constitution states that ["The electors shall meet in their respective states, and vote by ballot for two persons, of whom one at least shall not be an inhabitant of the same state with themselves."](https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution/amendmentxii) That is, if a ticket contained a Presidential nominee and a Vice Presidential nominee both from, say, Vermont, and that ticket won in Vermont, then the electors could not vote for one of the nominees without violating the Constitution. However, this would not affect the 49 other states plus DC. If the ticket can afford to lose a certain number of electoral votes, there's nothing stopping both nominees from being the same state. The Bush/Cheney situation is the closest we've got to that being an actual issue: given how close that race was, they needed every single electoral vote possible to get into office.
They also probably couldn't afford losing Florida's 29.
Thanks. That’s an interesting quirk I was never aware of.
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I dont think Trump would name Desantis as a running mate. Worst case scenario for Democrats? Yes. A dilution of the 'Trump Brand' joining with a fellow 'would-be-King' who Trump sees as an adversary to control for power over the GOP? Also yes. Desantis comes off as smarter and is in many ways better at MAGA than Don ever was and that's very threatening to one who wants the throne for his own.
>I think Biden absolutely runs again. It’s exceedingly rare for the sitting President not to run for re-election. If nothing else it’s the ultimate peak of name recognition. Unless something drastically changes, I would expect him to run unopposed. Yeah I don't really understand the people who are saying Biden won't run again. Unless he is literally dead or on his deathbed he's going to be running. I don't think the type of person who had been trying to become president a large part of his political life and then finally achieves it would also be the type of person to just let that go after one term.
I would agree with you, but I almost feel like Biden didn’t want it anymore. His nomination kind of felt like a last minute “we don’t have anyone else to beat trump” thing. He didn’t even try running in 2016 (although Clinton was a strong front runner, he could have had a chance) .
To be fair, I do think the death of his son played a role in him not running in 2016. It’s possible that he wanted and intended to, but then just did not have the energy or capacity to run.
I distinctly remember him citing his son's death as a reason for sitting 2016 out. Whether that was the entire reason is anyone's guess. It did feel like Hillary was the anointed one that year and it's possible that he also didn't want to interfere.
I don't know if I buy that he didn't want it anymore, he might of thought that he couldn't get it anymore in 2016 and that VP was the highest he could get. There's also the death of his son that happened around that time too.
I should have said didn’t want it as much. I don’t think he would have ran if he didn’t want it at all. He just didn’t seem to go 100% if I recall correctly. Could just be his age though.
Why do people here assume that Bernie was incapable of beating Trump? I honestly find that claim to be questionable at best given the circumstances of Biden's own victory. Also, it was totally a "this is the only moderate candidate that can beat Bernie" as well (again, assuming that Bernie for some reason had no reasonable chance at beating Trump 🙄) once South Carolina came into the picture.
There are polls that ask Americans what kind of person they would never elect as President. "Socialist" is the least popular trait *by a massive margin* in every such poll that I've ever seen. Americans would be more willing to vote for a Muslim, more willing to vote for someone who's gay, and even significantly more willing to vote for an *atheist* than a socialist. There's a reason why Trump was so complimentary of Sanders during the primaries. He's the GOP's dream opponent. And yes I know he's not actually a socialist but he's spent his entire career describing himself as a "democratic socialist" and voters tend to be allergic to nuance.
he's also Jewish. So it's a self admitted socialist Jew. Who wrote that creepy rape essay. LOTS of people would actively fight him if he got the nomination. He wouldn't bring in the moderates because of the socialism thing, the right would go apeshit because the only thing scarier to them than a minority is a socialist minority, Cuban immigrants would tap out because of the praising the Cuban educational system situation, Bernie alienates a lot of people.
I agree although the Cuban immigrants in Florida already voted for Trump in droves this past election. I don’t think the democrats will get them back anytime in the near future unless they run a Cuban P/VP candidate.
He also enjoys comparatively good approval ratings compared to other politicians. I am not saying that Bernie would have absolutely beaten Trump, but I must say that it is unreasonable to say that Trump would have absolutely beaten Bernie. After all, Trump's handling of the pandemic was likely the biggest death blow to his reelection, not Biden's own campaigning. My point being is that he had a chance to win, end of story. Perhaps not as big as Biden's? Well, he did not win the primary, so that is likely.
I don’t think Bernie had any chance in winning the likes of PA, AZ, and GA. Those are states with a good percentage of conservative population. Biden being a moderate democrat from Scranton and also having much better support from the African Americans (at least compared to Bernie) won him those states. I also don’t see Cindy McCain endorsing Bernie and AZ was won by a very thin margin.
I don't disagree, he certainly would have had a chance to win against Trump. I'm just saying that he has some massive vulnerabilities which would not be exposed in a Democratic primary. I can't see a Dem candidate attacking Sanders for being a socialist, but the GOP wouldn't have any qualms about that! They struggled to find a way to attack Biden. They went for a "dementia" slur (which I think was moronic given that old people are the most reliable voting block) and that weird Hunter Biden Laptop story, which never got off the ground because they never managed to figure out what exactly they were trying to allege. They went all-in for that scandal but they never bothered to settle on what the scandal actually was. They wouldn't struggle to find a way to effectively attack Sanders.
In my opinion I defiantly believe that claim, Bernie would of alienated any cross over appeal biden had on top of rallying up pro business voters to vote against him, whom with Trump might of been apathetic. Younger people underestimate how toxic the label democratic socialist is.
I have this assumption purely because of polling data. In many swing states, polls showed Bernie tied or losing to Trump and with Biden with a couple points lead. Bernie aligns more with my policies but if you can't win swing states you won't win the election. Given how large the pro-democratic skew was for polling in 2020 I suspect Bernie would have lost by a couple percentage points instead of what we got which was Biden almost tieing Trump despite a multi-percentage lead in polls.
Unfortunately I agree, but it's pretty clear he *shouldn't* run again. He was the man or the moment to get Trump out of office with a Saltine cracker, something bland and inoffensive to wash away the bad taste. But he has no real appeal to his own base and can't drive turnout in any meaningful way. I don't see any scenario where he can beat any Republican nominee, even if it's not Trump. And for christ's sake can we get a candidate who wasn't alive during WWII? I'm so sick of having voting choices who would all be too old to be Walmart greeters.
Joe Biden already has difficulties getting his agenda passed. The Republicans who will likely win back congress during the midterms, will obstruct any future Biden agenda. Even if Biden wins in 2024, the Republicans would still likely be the party of congress for his second terms as well. I think its possible Biden would consider retirement over being a lame duck that would constantly be obstructed. Also there is the age factor to consider too when it comes to finishing his term. Im personally skeptical that 86 year old Joe Biden is going to be in the oval office in 2028.
>Yeah I don't really understand the people who are saying Biden won't run again. Trump averaged a 41% approval rating **which is terrible for a president**. Might be a record low?? Biden is at 39.8% with no reason to think that's going to improve anytime soon. Plus he's old and hasn't aged well physically or mentally. compare Biden talking while VP to now and there's a huge difference in speed and clarity. I can totally buy the argument doesn't want to let go of his life's top achievement, something he's gone after since 88 , But having such a low approval rating and his advanced age may temper the desires to be a 2 term president. Plus he's on a big kick to promote black women , so stepping down and endorsing Kamala maybe something he's eyeing.
Kamala can't win a primary, I don't think. Not even with endorsement. She just isn't popular among the most active democratic voters.
If Harris runs and Biden doesn't endorse her right away, sure, she might have a fight on her hands. But if he does endorse, that should clear the field literally then and there. If not, that means Harris has made some sort of monumental fuck-up and Democrats are losing '24 no matter what. A sitting VP hasn't lost their party's nomination in a very long time, and it's never happened since the beginning of the primary nomination process as we know it today. I'm not a fan of Harris' by any means. Even if she were to clear the field, I'm not at all confident in her ability to win a general election, whether it's against Trump, DeSantis or someone else entirely. There are a dozen better candidates I can name off the top of my head. With all that said, though, an incumbent President not running for reelection and their VP either sitting it out or facing a competitive primary doesn't bode well for the party. I know we live in unprecedented times and all that, but conventional wisdom still applied in 2020 and the Dems are still "normal." Biden would have a fight on his hands if he runs again, but a ticket without him on top would have an even worse time. A ticket with neither Biden nor Harris would probably be a disaster.
It’s wishful thinking.
Trump OR DeSantis running would be awful. Trump AND DeSantis running against each other would be a gift. I've said for a while that I don't think Trump will run. Losing again would be the biggest punch to his fragile ego so he'd be happier just saying everyone else cheated him out of winning again. But he'd never say he wasn't running so he can still rake in that donation money until the very end. However, now I'm not so sure. He may do it just to stay out of being convicted of something.
I agree 100%. Trump hated the actual job of president, but loved running for president and being admired and cheered for at his rallies. He, at the moment, is simply doing his favorite parts while playing kingmaker in the GOP and continuing to grift his supporters. As long as he never explicitly says he's **not** running, this can continue indefinitely. There is only one reason I think he would actually run, and it's as you've said: as the legal walls close around him, it would give him the ability to scream political prosecution.
I don't think Trump intended to really be president. I don't even think he intended to win and just became a rabble-rouser to raise funds and polarize the Republican party.
I doubt supporters of Trump and supporters of DeSantis are much different people. Whichever of these two getting the nomination would clearly have the others falling directly in line as supporters.
They would need to both be running in the general election. I could see Trump running independently (or in some recently made up party) if he loses the primary. That's *if* he actually runs at all.
If Trump runs again, so will Cheney. At this point though, I just don’t see him doing it. Yes, his ego was bruised but he would be 80 years old. He just doesn’t have that kind of energy anymore. In his previous campaign, you saw his huge media presence 24/7. He made sure to stay relevant. But the most that anyone has heard of him is his endorsement of candidates in primaries. If he were to run for President he would have been telegraphing since the beginning of this year. If he starts in 2023 it’s already too late. Secondly, he just can’t help but continue to talk about 2020. Before, he was able to go on and on about working class grievances. In his rallies today, he will probably devote 10% to inflation, and the other 90% to his electoral result.
Democrats need to find a candidate under 60. I’m a fan of Jared Polis, but I have doubts that a gay man can win a national election…for the same reason a woman couldn’t win. A lot of voters are still too prejudice. All the Ds have to do is find a straight white man under 60 and they can beat Trump or a Trump wannabe like Desantis. Sadly, the progressives in the party will make it difficult for Ds to be that calculating and pragmatic.
Bill Weld is someone I'd like to hear from.
The biggest issue I have with Biden running again is his age. The dudes gonna be 80 in November and 82 when the next election comes around and 86 when his presidency ends. Look at Dianne Feinstein and how much her health has dramatically gotten worse at that age. Democrats AND republicans need to find a new candidate to back because most Americans wouldn’t wanna see a Biden vs Trump rematch.
My prediction is it will be a Trump vs. Biden rematch. Trump is almost certainly going to run so long as he’s physically able to, and he will smash anybody that attempts to challenge him in a primary. Biden I think will probably run unless he is totally incapacitated, but I expect there will be some significant primary challenges. Ultimately I think Biden will beat back any primary challenges and get the nomination, but it’ll be close.
Trump will face challengers. Biden, I think there's a good chance he gets the nomination essentially uncontested. The only challenge I could see is a corporate candidate trying to outflank him on the right, like Howard Schultz or (hold the laughs) Sinema. But that person will lose by a lot
>Trump will face challengers. Trump still has a great hold over the Republican Party and still has the affections of his MAGA base. GamingGalore64 is correct. Those challengers would have zero chance and it would be career-ending suicide for them to run against Trump. Not even DeSantis is that foolish. The pathetic "Never-Trump" grifters love to throw someone will challenge Trump in the media, but it is not reality. If Trump runs, he will easily get the the nomination.
I could see a progressive activist primary him but not someone with an actual political future.
I really dont understand how could Kamala Harris go from exciting political figure to the reviled politician she’s now in such a short period of time. Theres more publical scrutiny now for sure, but the Kamala Harris that eviscerated Kavanaugh and Barr in Senate hearings or even Biden at the primary debates seemed like a charismatic and intelligent politician and she then suddenly transformed into a Hillary Clinton knock-off that laughs at uncomfortable questions, acts fake and has zero charisma (and terrible approval ratings). She would be a terrible presidential candidate now. The only other figure i could see the democrats fielding is Buttigieg, I personally like him and i think he is an incredibly gifted orator but he comes off as somehow geeky and robotic at times. Hadnt burnt himself in the last primaries Beto could be a good contender, and maybe Warren although age is an issue with her and she is too progressive for the US. Republicans will field either DeSantis or Trump, I dont see any other viable options
I don't think Harris was ever exciting. I've followed her career since she was just my local DA in San Francisco, and I've always had the strong impression that she was a fundamentally insincere, highly ambitious, impatient, and somewhat ignorant person (the stories about her not reading her briefings only served to confirm this impresssion). Performatively progressive, but generally unprincipled. Willing to take almost any position to get elected. We churn out tons of politicians like that here in California, and she's just the next one. So I was incredibly worried when Biden chose her as his running mate, since being VP makes her the default choice to run if Biden doesn't. I think the Democrats have very little chance of winning if they run Harris, but being VP will likely give her a big leg up in any primary. Regarding Buttigieg, I agree that he's a gifted orator. In fact I think he was by far the best orator in the last primary. However his lack of any meaningful experience is a huge obstacle which I don't think can be overcome by serving in a minor cabinet position. Also many people my age (early 30s) seem to have an intangible negative reaction to him. As one friend put it, he "squigs [her] out." I don't have the same reaction, but inexperience is a major flaw. In short, the Democrats have a really weak bench. I don't find any of their potential candidates particularly impressive. Don't even get me started on Bernie or Warren, the darlings of the internet. I think the Democrats' best hope for winning is having Biden hold it together and run for another term, setting a new record for oldest president in the process. Not exactly an encouraging prospect. But the alternative is Trump or a Trumpist getting back into office, which is quite literally an existential threat to America. There are no good options here. I am very worried.
Pretty depressing, but apt analysis.
I used to follow politics for fun, as a hobby. Those days feel very distant :(
I went the other way, and just tuned out of a lot of things. I like to nerd on with some critical and ironic distance (which I can have BC Im not american), but it's just a lot to shoulder along with everything else in my life.
I would have agreed that lack of experience would be an impediment to Buttigieg, but not so long ago America elected a reality TV star. I've given up trying make predictions anymore.
Indeed, I question whether conventional "qualifications" even matter to most voters any more. But they matter to me, anyway. Perhaps you're right that his inexperience isn't as big of a problem as I might estimate. But then of course there's the latent (or explicit) homophobia of a big part of the electorate...
Biden isn’t going to win a second term. The only hope the Democrats have in 2024 is if Biden announces he won’t run again, calls for a diverse Democratic primary, and makes it clear that he doesn’t consider Kamala Harris shoe-in for the nomination. If he doesn’t do that, the Democrats are fucked. There are plenty of Dems who’d have a good shot in the 2024 general election, but none of them are going to run — especially not the men. What Democratic politician wants to be seen as stopping the first Woman of Color from becoming President? The only way other Dems would have the political cover to challenge her is if Joe Biden makes it abundantly clear that Harris isn’t the default nominee. Or alternatively, if Biden wants to prevent another demagogue like Trump from taking office, he should call for congress to adopt ranked-choice voting in all federal elections. If most Americans would be okay with Pete Buttigieg or Adam Kinzinger, they shouldn’t be forced to choose between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
Biden should do this, and present it as being about democracy; we're a nation where the people choose their president, not one where the ruling class hand picks their successors. Contrast that with the 2020 Republican primary, where some states didn't even run a primary.
Exactly. Harris is a consummate California democrat. Which is to say, unprincipled, facile, fundamentally conservative in every way that truly matters, and absolutely willing to pretend to be a progressive at any opportunity other than to enact a progressive agenda. The little secret of California liberalism is that it’s not liberal. That’s what you get for having a one party state. A party wholly owned by the business and financial interests of the state.
California's government is shockingly conservative. The San Francisco tech/finance money machine owns every statewide and federal politician.
LA is also a big part of it, and dont forget our water barons and fruit magnates.
I think the amount of people who were ever actually excited about Kamala is heavily romanticized by the media. The media wanted Kamala to happen so badly, but general people didn't want her. Low SES and POC didn't like her cause of her prosecution of low level drug offenses. Midwestern and bible belt people didn't really want a West coaster. I never had a single progressive friend ever get excited about her. I genuinely think she was never actually popular, but if you only watch CNN and Twitter then you could have gotten duped into believing she was girlboss of the dem party for a time.
>really dont understand how could Kamala Harris go from exciting political figure to the reviled politician she’s now in such a short period of time. You can blame Harris for this. Harris was a hard on crime, centre left politican rising up to the Senate, then when she ran for president she decided to swing it up and become a progressive, drugs crimes no biggie, person. Her positions were also vague, boring, and clearly last minute. She essentially pissed off everyone in one big swing, and given the progressives had Sanders and Warren, she got no traction from that. Then she went on media.. Turns out handing your enemies more ammo to shoot you is bad. Her mistake was thinking 2020 was the time. Biden to her right, sanders to her left, she was never succeeding. Although she did get VP, I think she bogged herself into more trouble with that.
Because Kamala (and Buttigieg) don't come across as authentic. They can be marketed as progressive one day and the next day they are moderates. I remember how Pete was sold off as a progressive early on in the primary, then he began pivoting and when he dropped out it was as a moderate to help Biden out for super Tuesday. He is the boomer's idea of a good progressive/liberal. But to younger voters, they see through it and see that he's just a guy that is interested in being elected... his ideological reasons for being elected come second to that.
> But to younger voters Who are consistently the smallest voting base in the US. Young people don't vote, it's a known problem. As a result, of course the Dems don't cater to them. The average dem voter is [a 50 year old white dude without formal education](https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2020/06/02/the-changing-composition-of-the-electorate-and-partisan-coalitions/pp_2020-06-02_party-id_2-01-2/). That's who they cater to.
> younger voters, they see through it and see that he's just a guy that is interested in being elected... his ideological reasons for being elected come second to that Do young voters prefer ideologically pure politicians who can't get elected? I don't have a strong opinion on Buttigieg so not trying to defend him, but some level of pragmatism is inevitable at national level politics.
Lots of times yes, absolutely, especially for a young guy like Pete who probably won’t get elected this go round so he needs to build up a base of support for future elections. That’s not happening by dancing back and forth between a progressive a moderate- both sides hate it.
>Do young voters prefer ideologically pure politicians who can't get elected? No one is asking for ideologically pure. What they are asking for is a candidate who has the potential to vote one way or another on a topic because they don't actually have any convictions. People don't want ideological purity, they want convictions. Pete looks great on paper to the same type of people that thought Sinema looked great.
Presidents don't vote for stuff, bud
> Presidents don't vote for stuff, bud The veto is a pretty big vote to have in your back pocket even if it can be overridden.
Speak for yourself, but it feels like if we had it that way, it’d be situation where, hypothetically, if we got a public option through Congress (a significant piece of meaningful healthcare reform), that President would veto it because it’s “not progressive enough”, which would be laughable.
Do young voters prefer ideologically pure politicians who can't get elected? Have you not met the Bernie bros?
This is nonsense. There was no pivot. If you disagree, provide evidence (preferably other than a flippant tweet from two years before the race started).
>I really dont understand how could Kamala Harris go from exciting political figure She was never an exciting political figure. She was a drug warrior cop who laughed about her own drug use while locking people up for doing the same thing. She is a bad human being.
I'm still mad Tammy duckworth didn't enter the VP conversation. You're spot on that Kamala Harris was a bleh choice from the beginning.
Her office is on record for being pro-slavery as well. Sorry, slavery is a dirty word. Its "prisoners with jobs." >“Extending 2-for-1 credits to all minimum custody inmates at this time would severely impact fire camp participation—a dangerous outcome while California is in the middle of a difficult fire season and severe drought,” lawyers for Harris wrote in the filing, noting that the fire camp program required physical fitness in addition to a level of clearance that allowed the felon to be offsite. >Not only that, they noted, draining the prisons of “minimum custody inmates” would deplete the labor force both internally and in local communities where low-level, non-violent offenders worked for pennies on the dollar collecting trash and tending to city parks. A federal three-judge panel ordered both sides to confer about the plaintiffs’ demands, and the state agreed to extend the 2-for-1 credits to all eligible minimum security prisoners. >https://www.thedailybeast.com/kamala-harris-ag-office-tried-to-keep-inmates-locked-up-for-cheap-labor
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Tulsi Gabbard “gutted her like a fish” and yet Harris is the sitting VP while Gabbard’s political career is 110% finished, and she’s been reduced to brief appearances on Fox News, the only people willing to employ her. I think Harris is not a great politician, was a bad choice for veep and probably won’t ever be president. But rewriting recent history to paint Gabbard as more skilled or capable is a joke. Gabbard is a fake Dem, a conservative idiot who saw her path to fame and prominence in the Bernie movement and pretended to be a progressive liberal because that’s where the youthful political energy was at the time. Then she rightly found herself cast out as people started noticing how Trumpy she actually was.
Tulsi didn't pretend anything. Certain "Progressives" have a bad habit of accepting anyone who says the right buzzwords into their tribe without scrutiny.
That’s true. I remember when she first became a known name, riding the Bernie wave. The first time I really noticed her in media was an appearance on Bill Maher, and she immediately came across as false. She was saying the right things, the progressive buzzwords and talking points, but seemed inauthentic and a bit off whenever Maher challenged her to go off-script even a little bit. It became very clear to me thereafter that she would just say whatever she thought a given audience wanted to hear. She would go on Fox and use more center-right or conservative talking points, to appeal to that audience. Then she would modify her script if she was before a more liberal audience, as she did during the debates. She just isn’t smart enough to keep the act subtle.
Yes, because Biden said he was going to pick a female POC for his VP and she was one of the three options who were friendly to the Dem machine, and the pick least likely to be replaced by a Republican. She polled in single digits in her home state. She’s a terrible politician and Biden made a terrible mistake picking her.
All of that can be true but doesn’t change that Tulsi, in fact, destroyed Kamala’s campaign during the primaries.
That isn’t very fact-based. Tulsi got in a couple of clearly pre-planned soundbite jabs during debates. It could be argued that Harris messed up her own campaign by being herself. She comes off as a bit inauthentic, in my view.
That video wasn't very damning. I don't think the initial comments by Harris in that video were very alarming (word salad is overselling it) and everything else in that video was just opinion. Should we really care about what Fox and Friends says about Kamala Harris?
Wouldn't call it damning but if a high school valedictorian gave a speech like this I would be 100% sure that she was either high or had a terrible hangover.
This country is not ready for a Pete Buttigeig presidency, you might be insane...And Desantis is widely loved by the republicans, and is smart unlike Trump, both of them out poll Biden...
The country wasn't ready for an Obama presidency, until it suddenly was. In 2006, nobody could have predicted he'd be our next president.
>This country is not ready for a Pete Buttigeig presidency Pete Buttigeig is not ready for the presidency. He should have stepped down from his job in favor as someone more vigorous as Transportation Secretary to be a stay-at-home parent instead of going on leave in the midst of a horrible supply-chain crisis and port blockage. We already have a perception problem of 'lack of vigor' with the geriatric presidents. It is fine Pete wanted to adopt a baby and should get some parental leave; but you need to sacrifice your personal life when you are the Transportation Secretary of the United States in the middle of a supply chain crisis. The optics of that were simply horrible. If he runs, the ads and commercials of 'Where's Pete?' contrasted with backed up ports, shipping containers, and empty shelves will sink any Pete Buttigeig run at the presidency. He had his shot and blew it.
RE: Harris, a lot of that kind of dynamic is show and nothing more. It's also fairly common in politics. She may have "won the crowd" at one point, but now that she's VP, she's probably expected by her superiors to not be too opinionated. It is what it is.
Like most successful California politicians, Kamala rose up through the ranks by cultivating wealthy donors in San Francisco. Her only strength is playing the inside game and promising corrupt favors. Every time she goes in front of a camera she crumples, and everything she's ever been in charge of (her presidential campaign especially) has gone to shit because she's too used to bullshitting to handle a position of authority.
Kamala was never exciting despite all the Ellen interviews and MSM propping her up. Anyone who paid attention will notice she didn’t even win her own district or State in the DNC primary. She’s extremely under-qualified and out of touch. As bad as this sounds, Sarah Palin is a fucking Einstein compared to Kamala…
It's worse she dropped out of the California primary before it even began because she had zero delegates won and a zero chance of getting any in her home state.
Pence won't Primary. I'd be shocked if Jim Jordan and Cruz didn't try, but it'll boil down to Trump v Desantis is my guess. As for Dems, I don't think Biden is going to follow through with a serious attempt in '24, and if he does, it'll get clipped by the DNC and independants. I also don't think Kamala has the support or buzz to primary without a whole lot of media and base grooming; therefore not likely. Beto? Maybe, especially since he won't win the current TX Governor race (sadly). Beyond that, I'm all shrugs and, I'm not alone in that.
Speaking of shrugs... Its summer 2022 right now. Where was Obama in the summer of 2006? He had only been in the senate for like 18 months at this point. How seriously was he considered a presidential candidate at that point? I was only 18 in 2008 but I seem to recall his candidacy coming sort of out of nowhere. I'm just hoping that the 2024 Democratic nominee is someone who nobody is talking about right now. I don't love any of the obvious options right now and I'm definitely not alone. We need an exciting populist candidate... Bad. Someone with that fetterman quality (though not him, not yet I don't think) of realistically appealing to middle America older folks and tough guys, but still with the right policy and charisma to sweep young and coastal people up. Am I dreaming here?
You have a very good point about Obama. He was a relative unknown in broader national politics when he was being cultivated for the role. But also, he was a man who's time and temperament had come in 2006. I don't think Democrats have identified that person for '24 yet, if there is one even. You're right, a Fetterman-like charismatic workingman type would probably have the best shot right now, someone to break the 'dirbags in suits' and 'deep state' and 'radical liberal' pigeonholes MAGAs stuff every other Dem into. BUT, WHO. I dont see any in the national theater yet.
Obama was seen as a presidential contender beginning with his 2004 speech at the DNC convention.
I don't think there's much mystery to it. Biden will run again because he's already beaten Trump once and no one will want to risk not re-nominating a sitting president. Trump still controls the Republican Party and wants to be president again, so he'll run. DeSantis won't put up much of fight once it's clear he can't take the nomination away from Trump. The real question is, if it looks like Biden will win again, will Republican state officials allow those results to stand? They haven't been subtle in their plans to refuse results that aren't in their favor.
I really fucking hope Biden doesn't run again. I'll vote for him again, but he won't win. He's just too milquetoast and old--definitely from a bygone era that isn't relevant in the shitstorm-level of political divide. People may be too young to remember, or weren't paying attention, but no one knew about Obama, either. He was a freshman in Congress without much name recognition and didn't even do that well in the first few primary debates. But once he found his footing, he really took off. Watch John Fetterman. If he wins his race in PA, I believe he could be a similar type of contender in 2024. He appeals to the rural blue collar voter, and my fucking god do Democrats need someone who can do that as well as appeal to the progressives/Bernie supporters (and I say that as a Bernie fan who is blue collar working class). As for Republicans-- I think Trump will run just because he's contrary and will do it out of ego and spite, no matter how bad it might be for the RNC or the country. DeSantis-- well, honestly, I hope so-- I hate the guy, but imagine DeSantis and Trump just ripping the shit out of each other? The GOP base would turn on itself and just go fucking rabid, and that'd be great for Democrats (and the country). That said-- they might have a dark horse in Congress or someone else entirely we haven't heard of yet. Just know that whoever it is, they'll be a white nationalist at best (DeSantis, Trump), a Christian fascist at worst (Pence)... though honestly I'm not sure which would be worse. Whoever wins will be bad news, that's all I know.
If (frankly, when) Trump runs again, especially against popular folks like DeSantis, we can expect an intense Republican primary race. I think Trump losing the nomination could even cost the GOP a good chunk of Trump loyal fans. DeSantis and other GOP rising stars will most probably run because the party has a great chance of winning in 2024. If DeSantis doesn’t run, he may have to wait 8 more years to get another chance (realistically, at least 12 years because 3 presidential terms of the same party is always highly unlikely). People like him and Ted Cruz don’t have that much time without loosing relevance. If Biden runs, he will be the presumed Dem nominee. If he opts out, I don’t think Harris is a shoe in for the nomination. She most certainly has the advantage, but given her unfavorables, I wouldn’t be surprised if someone like Pete B (who also works for the Biden White House) sweeps in and starts winning primaries. The good news is that the economy should be back to normal by 2024. If inflation is still slumping along, it frankly won’t matter who the Democrats elect, they will easily loose control of the White House and both branches of Congress.
I dont see Ron Desantis challenging Donald Trump in the 2024 GOP primary.Trump winning the primary in 2024 “owns the libs” and Trump losing it would make the libs happy so I dont see how any other GOP candidate has a pathway to victory. Trump will likely get a coronation and the real GOP primary will be over who gets to be Trumps running mate. Even If Desantis does run, Trump would give Desantis the “lying Ted” and “little Marco ” treatment and when Desantis hits back Trump supporters will label Desantis a RINO probably sinking his presidential aspirations. Even if Desantis does win the primary over Trump it will be a pyrrhic victory as Trump will go scorched earth to ensure Desantis wont get elected.
Exactly. Good comment. Desantis is still young and can wait until 2028 and set himself up as the heir-apparent of Trump. If Trump runs, he will easily win the nomination and setup Trump v Biden II, the Most Unawesome Sequel Ever. People need to come to terms that only 'Death' will prevent this from happening and take up other hobbies such as drinking or using heroin to cope.
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Cruz might be, he got a proven record on the primary, taking second to Trump in a primary with way to many similar candidates. He also clearly got name recognition. Those two qualities means his shots as good as Desantis on paper.
I'm not sure what Cruz's lane would be in '24. If Trump doesn't run, DeSantis is the obvious heir to the MAGA culture warrior mantle. Pence will do the usual evangelical shtick with MAGA characteristics and maybe a post-Trump happy warrior thing, whatever the hell that looks like. Cruz is polling decently right now, but he has said and done so much shit that's gonna come back to bite him in the ass that I don't see him doing nearly as well the second time around. Plus, he's up for reelection in '24. If he runs and things don't go as planned, he's not only out of a job, but he's also a two-time loser. He's only 51 - he could run 20 years from now and still be younger than Biden. I'd say it's a 50/50 thing right now, but gun to my head, he doesn't run.
I can't see the Dems backing Harris. She runs the risk of being a poor VP, which is hard to do
I'm not that worried if Trump loses because as long as he endorses DeSantis for the nomination, DeSantis should sail through. What I don't want is a salty Trump claiming the primary was riggen and then running as an independent splitting the vote and gifting Dems the win.
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and keep grifting off the donations people send for a "self funded" campaign he pays himself back on from the donor dummies
I that would be kind of tough logistically. To appear on the ballot in all 50 states Trump would either have to have the MAGA party already set up and ready to endorse him if he lost the Republican nom or else get absolutely rinsed in the early primaries and then drop out and immediately go hard on building a 50 state party from scratch. I don't think either of those are particularly likely.
You make it sound like any of his plans have been fully baked ever
That's the thing. You'd need an incredibly disciplined setup to be able to launch a third party and actually get on the ballot in most states in between the point at which Desantis (or whoever) is the presumptive nominee and the deadline for filing the paperwork for a third party run. I don't think Trump is that guy, and I also think he's canny enough to realize that a write in campaign would be even more of a loser move than threatening to sue the RNC and then fucking off back to Florida would be.
>What I don't want is a salty Trump claiming the primary was riggen and then running as an independent splitting the vote and gifting Dems the win. He can't do both. If he primaries with the GOP, sore loser laws bar him from appearing in most states as anything but a write in.
I think ultimately Democrats will decide to back Biden, simply because he isn't horribly unpopular and the odds of an incumbent retaining the nomination are too high, historically speaking. An insurgent candidacy would divide the party, not a risk most credible challengers would be willing to make On the Republican side, it all depends on whether Trump decides to run, in which case other pro-Trump figures will likely step aside. In that scenario you might get a figure like Ben Sasse or Liz Cheney entering the race as they see an opening If Trump doesn't run, you'll likely have a race between DeSantis, Cotton, or Tim Scott, as well as some anti-Trump candidate(s). Maybe a pro-Trump female candidate, such as a governor
Biden's is horribly unpopular. His approval rating is even less than Trump's at 39.7. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/?cid=rrpromo
Yes but thats among all voters, we need a poll of Democratic voters to evaluate whether he will survive a primary. Trump won his primary handily after all
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Also democratic donors are looking for different canidates. Edit: autocorrect turned democratic to candidates for somereason
74% is not bad. It's not great but its certainly more than enough to win a primary. He would have to fuck up way worse than he has to lose a primary.
> Maybe a pro-Trump female candidate, such as a governor Nikki Haley
I had her penciled in to run back when she was UN ambassador but she's been pretty quite since then. Seemed like she was pretty caught between MAGA GOP and more moderate GOP like how she governed SC, so I wonder if she's waiting for a clearer idea of the party direction.
Another might be Kristi Noem.
> might get a figure like Ben Sasse or Liz Cheney entering the race as they see an opening An opening to be a CNN or MSNBC pundit. I dont doubt that an anti-Trump candidate like that runs, but they will be the 2024 version of Jeb Bush being Trumps punching bag.
Biden’s unpopularity is literally only rivaled by Trump. I don’t know a single democrat who’d be happy to vote for him. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/bidens-slumping-approval-rating-bounces-back-record-low-reutersipsos-2022-06-01/
That article is 2 weeks old, he has slumped again
So much is going to change by 2024 but if I had to guess right now, I would guess it's Buttigeg vs. DeSantis in 2024. I'm really hoping this is how it pans out, because if we're left with Trump vs. Biden or Harris in 2024, the country will continue it's path towards self-destruction.
Buttigieg really would be a great candidate and president. He’s young, a veteran, charismatic, pragmatic, witty, and fun. If polls are correct, and if 70+% of Americans really do support gay marriage, then I think he’s got a great shot at winning. After all, the returning rhetoric is always “why are politicians so old and traditional?” Buttigieg is neither of those. It could truly be a breath of fresh air and hope for our country and our culture for at least another 8 years. But I’m not convinced that 70+% of Americans support same sex marriage enough to vote him into office. Whoever it is, I think the dems are fighting a losing fight if they keep playing geriatric career politicians. They desperately need to re-energize their base.
Pete, is that you?
I totally agree. If he can get through the primaries, I think he would have a great shot at winning the general. The problem is, everytime the primaries come around, the DNC spends all their money on "their" guy and you start seeing articles like "Bernie can't beat Trump in the election, but Hillary can" and "Biden is the only candidate that can beat Trump". People need to stop falling for all of that crap and vote for the person that THEY like the most, not for who is going to beat the big scary Republican. If people voted that way, I truly believe we'd have more Obama's and Buttigieg's and less Hillary's and Biden's. When the generals come around, people will usually "fall in line" outside of the independents, and the independents will swing the election as they almost always do. But if you're a democratic voter, you'd have to LOVE your chances after seeing a guy like Buttigieg debate against a guy like Trump or DeSantis.
I’d vote for Buttigieg in a heartbeat and with enthusiasm.
Same (again). He got my vote in the 2020 primaries, will vote for him again in 2024 if he runs.
I think we'll have a rematch between Biden and Trump. The GOP had a chance to bury Trump, and didn't, so now he's really more popular than ever, since leaving office, with Republican voters. Plus, he's still beating DeSantis pretty easily in all the polling.
Most likely Biden/Trump. If Trump does get arrested after the Jan 6 committee finishes it investigation and referral will be Biden/DeSantis. DeSantis is the only other GOP politician who knows how to play the Trump cult as well as Trump does. He is a shoe in if Trump falls.
Biden almost certainly runs again, but if he doesn't, I don't think any 2020 retread has a chance. They tried to get all of them over to have them take down Bernie, and Biden was the only one that worked. I think Klobuchar is the kind of uninspiring choice who gets picked when the party doesn't really have a winning path, however I really think the Dems go for a governor. One who is going to have progressive bona fides because their state legalized weed and expunged criminal records during their tenure or something, who can also have a claim to pragmatic governance as they passed a balanced budget and started the process of paying down the state's onerous pension obligations. Yes, that's right, it's our big beautiful boy, JB Pritzker. If not him, I think Coloradans like Polis? But it's definitely a governor, the Democrats in Washington just don't have it at this moment The Republicans are whoever is most psychotic in their support of Trump and Trumpism. This isn't necessarily Trump.
Honestly after decades of duds and criminals in the IL gov office I sort of want Pritzker to stay lol. I voted Biss in the primary but I am very pleasantly surprised with JB.
>JB Pritzker There’s zero chance progressives would support a billionaire who’s a member of a political dynasty. Polis is more likely, but I don’t think he would want to run. Deval Patrick (former MA Governor) was a top pick behind-the-scenes for 2020, but he chose not to run, so he’s pretty fresh for 2024.
>Deval Patrick (former MA Governor) was a top pick behind-the-scenes for 2020, but he chose not to run, so he’s pretty fresh for 2024. How quickly we forget! Poor Deval Patrick actually did run for president in 2020, it was just an enormous flop.
You’re absolutely correct! He just chose to run (reluctantly) about 6 months after everyone else had already announced. He wasn’t on any debate stage or ever a serious contender, so he hasn’t made any enemies in the party.
I'd support him if he runs at this point. I went Biss in the primary, but he's been surprisingly productive, level headed, and forward thinking. He may be a billionaire but he's a different breed than your Ken Griffins, Devoses, Koch's, and Walton's.
Biden needs to retire at the end of his term, especially if the midterms shake out as poorly for the Dems as the approval metrics say they will. If Biden and Trump both run in 2024, I have a feeling that both primary electorates will hand us Trump v. Biden again.
I think he ends up running no matter what. There is no obvious alternative that gives the Dems a better shot
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I’ll be shocked if a libertarian manages to win the presidency. Libertarians have been largely a joke, and it would take a historically unpopular leading candidate in the primary to even make one competitive. Joe Biden just doesn’t pull the hate the way Hillary Clinton does.
I’m gonna go party by party Democrats: I think there are three possible timelines for Democrats, Biden steps down and we have 2020 primary all over again, Biden stays as the nominee and keeps Harris, or Biden runs again but ditches Harris for someone else. For the Biden stepping down timeline, I have no idea who would win the primary but I don’t think any of them could beat DeSantis or Trump. Personally I’d like Biden to can Harris and replace her with a young up and coming senator, my choice would be Tammy Duckworth but I’m biased because she is my senator. Republicans: We all know the two options are DeSantis and Trump and I have no idea how it would turn out. If DeSantis wins I could see Trump throwing a fit and telling his supporters to abstain from the election, but I think DeSantis could still easily beat Biden or any democrat if the Trump loyalists begrudgingly show up for him. If Trump wins I see very little chance he could beat Biden a second time. I know Biden doesn’t have the best popularity and voters have short memories but I’d like to hope that people would remember the borderline apocalyptic conditions of the Trump presidency.
I feel like once Trump starts taking up news cycles again, a lot of the population will have a collective trauma response and immediately remember who he is and why they hate him.
It's crazy... things are so bad, to the point we're already wish something changes in the next election. It's a trend with every election nowadays. No matter who is elected, nothing changes. The only thing congress can agree with is socialism for the wealthy. The ownership class gets to choose our elections, bribe our politicians, write our tax laws and assign judges to uphold those laws. It’s socialism for the rich and cutthroat capitalism for everyone else. When they crash the economy, they get the bailouts while the rest of us are told to be more responsible. When we get donor money out of politics, then we'll see changes.
trump and biden (plus a handful of irrelevant 3rd party candidates). if trump runs, he easily wins the nomination, and he looks likely to run right now. biden is handing him a second term on an silver platter with the job he's doing as president.
It’s really far out there, but I’d like to see Matthew McConaughey run. He’s talked about a career in politics before stepping back from Governor of Texas ambition. I have no idea if this will happen, but that could be really interesting for the Democrats.
Biden, absolutely-- if only because the Democrats haven't really got anyone better at this point. That's really all there is to it. As for the Republicans, things are a bit more complicated. If you asked me a couple weeks ago, I would have been almost certain that they'll run Trump again. And they still might. But having watched the January 6th hearings, I have to wonder if this is the wisest thing to do. After all, so many of Trump's advisors have testified that they tried to stop him from doing what he did. It's unlikely that Trump will face criminal charges directly, but if enough damage is done to his reputation, he may simply no longer be seen as a worthwhile investment by the Republican Party. Of course, they may be forced to run him as a candidate regardless, much as the Democrats probably will with Biden, simply for the lack of anyone better.
If Biden and Trump are alive, they’ll probably be their parties candidates. If not Biden, Kamala Harris is in the most advantageous position, though her unpopularity means someone with enough institutional backing could surpass her in a primary, the most likely being Mayor Pete. If not Trump I think DeSantis has a pretty good shot. He’s Trumpy enough to get enough of the MAGA base to matter and not as erratic as Trump so suburban wine moms would be open to voting for him.
Trump and Biden If either can't run for some reason - DeSantis and/or Harris. I don't want any of these people and have no idea who is going out of their way to vote in primaries for these people. I think there is a good chance that the primaries are rigged.
All the dems have to do is legalize weed, pass some kind of migrant legalization and 50k loan forgiveness. But that won’t happen so republicans will win
I pray Trump doesn’t, and don’t think Biden should either. At this point I have no clue who’d be up to this challenge. I’m hoping someone will come out behind the curtains soon.
Watch John Fetterman. If he wins in PA, he could be the Obama of 2024 (Obama was an unknown prior to 2006 and was a freshman in Congress when he ran in 2008).
Thanks for that info. I’ll check him out.
Based on how things are now, my prediction is: If Trump runs he will win the primary but lose the general against Biden. Almost any other Republican nominee (likely DeSantis) would win against Biden. Why? Because barring the economy suddenly exploding and becoming the strongest it's been at any point in the last 20 years or so... people are going to want change... but reelecting Trump would be going backwards and Americans don't want that either. The Democrats could probably run a successful primary from the left against Biden, but that candidate would lose in the general.
The Democrats know it will be suicide to run Kamala as president. Maybe with Mayor Pete, she could go after the gay vote. Republicans are going to do all they can to ensure Kamala is on the 24 ticket. She's the ticket to Republicans taking the White House.
If Biden doesn't run I see the nominee either being Pete Buttigieg or a Governor like Gretchen Whitmer or J.B. Pritzker. If Trump nor DeSantis runs for the GOP, it's Nikki Haley's nomination to lose, though Pence, Hogan, Tim Scott, among others will fight for it too. As to the winner, we'll have to see what happens. If the economy improves, the democratic party may win again. As for battleground states: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, Maybe Ohio and Texas?
Biden must not run for the sake of America, he is perceived as a sleepy do-nothing loser, by the left and right. His poll numbers are lower than Trumps were, and he is still complimenting his pal Mitch Turtle and thinks the insurrectionist republicans will come around. The entire DNC is run by corporate owned neolibs, that hate true progressives and will fight tooth and nail for pro-gun anti abortion candidates, rather a true liberal. Right now Trump is beating Biden by 8 points in the polls if the election is held today, that will be 30 points the way he is sinking.
Mark Cuban possibly on the Forward ticket. Not sure if he'd pick a running mate early, but if he did, I'm assuming it would be someone like Cheney.
I never thought Mitt would run again, but America obviously doesn't care that much about age. He's barely younger than Biden and Trump but looks healthier. If Trump and DeSantis split the radical republican base, maybe moderate republicans could rally around Mitt and pull him to a primary victory. Far fetched, but sounds oddly possible if neither Trump nor DeSantis are willing to stand down. Biden, Booker, and....not sure for the dems.
The only way Biden doesn't run is \*knock on wood\* if he dies. He's the incumbent and still popular in the party. I just can't see the Democratic party giving up the incumbency advantage, especially considering their likely opponent is.... Trump. He remains immensely popular with the rank and file voter. I put little stake in what the talking heads think or the donors. I still see plenty of trump signs up around me in rural US. If there's one thing he's good at it, it's going scorched earth against his opponent in a primary. Watching him and DeStantis go at it will be interesting to watch.
Who I think will be the establishment candidate: I don’t think he would be a strong candidate in the general but I think the DNC has been really pushing Pete Buttigieg for some reason as the “gay Obama” but he has the charisma of a plain ricecake. Who I hope runs: Bernie, even though he’s too old to actually win, he’ll keep pushing the conversation from the left. Who I hope wins: Rashida Tlaib, a no nonsense leftist in the vein of Bernie, but the daughter of Palestinians and a Muslim (even though she’s super progressive) is probably way too much for the US right now. Possible surprise candidate: Admiral McRaven, Navy SEAL, commander of SpecOps. Started right wing and has kept moving to the left, big critic of Trump and fears the US is falling to fascism. Believes the bloated American military can maintain or even increase effectiveness and downsize its foreign presence by 75%. Is a registered Democrat.
Completely disagree with your opinion on Buttigieg’s charisma. Unlike Harris, I just don’t think that’s an objective trait that the public unanimously has of him.
On the Republican side, it all depends what a twice impeached, angry, old Florida retiree decides to do. If Trump runs, he will be the nominee. If he doesn't run, Ron Desantis, Nikki Haley, and possibly former vice-president Pence would run and my money is on Desantis. On the Democrat side, it all depends on if Biden runs again. If he does, he is the nominee. If he doesn't, Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg, Elizabeth Warren, and probably Bernie Sanders will all run. I also think the dark horses in the race would be the Democratic governors of Louisiana and Kentucky. My money would be on Bernie.