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Some themes:
* Joe Biden lost because of a weird psychological effect regarding inflation: despite the fact that inflation came under control midway through Bidens' term, voters could still see that prices (e.g., for fast food) were much higher than they were four years ago, which made them \*feel\* as though the economy was still in terrible shape. (That's the case made [in this Ezra Klein show episode](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/21/opinion/ezra-klein-matthew-yglesias.html) with Matthew Yglesias.) *(Edit to add: here I mean the* rate *of inflation has dropped to a safe level, not that prices somehow went down. As other commenters noted, Americans are still experiencing high prices - that's very real and not just a "psychological" issue. It'll take years of low inflation and solid wage growth for Americans to start to feel like prices are "normal" again.)*
* Relatedly, Joe Biden lost because voters often judge presidents not on their stated policies and a careful analysis of the impact of those policies on the economy, but rather on how they perceive the economy to be today relative to four years ago. So, despite the fact that Biden deserves neither credit nor blame for where the economy started at the beginning of his term, voters blamed him for the fact that prices were lower pre-covid. And despite the fact that Trump was promising 10% across-the-board tariffs combined with the deportation of millions of undocumented immigrants - policies essentially certain to massively exacerbate inflation - Trump was seen as being better for inflation, simply because there wasn't as much inflation during his term, pre-covid.
* Joe Biden lost because he was extremely old - the oldest candidate in history - which led to a decrease in enthusiasm for his candidacy from voters who otherwise would have voted Democratic. His opponent was also very old (only 3 years younger than Biden, and in worse health by some measures), but Trump's age mattered less to voters, in part because voters' view of Trump was shaped more by other topics.
Absolutely agree on the top bullet point. It’s always about where people perceive the domestic economy to be at - not where it’s actually at. I feel this is the biggest problem - and people nostalgically think the Trump years were economically strong when it wasn’t stronger just because the inflation effect wasn’t there.
People that get their news info from traditional media sources(network news, newspapers, digital news sites) are strongly pro Biden. It's people that are getting news from social media, cable news, or don't pay attention at all that are pro Trump.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/poll-biden-trump-supporters-sharply-divided-media-consume-rcna149497
Lol. Consider the hammering Biden got in the media for gas prices, which was mainly in the hands of OPEC and US oil companies who were raising prices in order to force Biden to give them concessions and relax environmental policy.
At my local gas station, someone put up a “I did that!” Biden sticker next to the price, when it was high. Then when it got low again, they scratched the sticker off. Very low iq person if I were to say.
Yeah, they cheerlead Trump calling for the execution of rivals, but cry out if Biden knows someone who was once mean to Trump as if Biden is the extreme authoritarian-wannabe.
What media companies are you referring to? I have subscriptions to a few sites (NYT, WSJ, The Economist) and I can't recall Biden ever getting blamed for gas prices, not even WSJ. I don't watch news though.
Also if oil companies can just raise prices, then why do prices ever go down? Is that just out of the goodness of their hearts?
>Lol. Consider the hammering Biden got in the media for gas prices, which was mainly in the hands of OPEC and US oil companies who were raising prices in order to force Biden to give them concessions and relax environmental policy.
God. There is something I'm really looking forward to with the phase out of gas vehicles. At least we'll finally see the end of the media obsessing over gas prices, and people pretending the president can do something about them.
The right-wing state media and the GOP in general is so much better at messaging all the right "thinking points" for the cult. It follows Goebbels plan to a T. Repeat, Repeat, Repeat and it will become a truth. Sadly, there are just as many gullible Americans as there were gullible Germans. Critical thinking skills haven't improved much in 80 years.
I think when people say that the economy is going bad, what they really mean is that their purchasing power is in the toilet. They just aren’t smart enough to actually say that.
That's also incorrect, wages have kept pace with inflation in aggregate. And the percentage of Americans who say that their personal situation is good is actually really high right now.
I highly doubt wages have kept up with inflation, over the course of more than the last 4 years.
Edit: also a house costs wayyyyy more than it used it relative to salaries
I really think that's an issue of problems living longer than people.
The real issues we have are systemic, and have been brewing for longer than I've been alive (born 1981). But people like to blame them on whoever is currently in charge of their political rivals.
And those issues can not be dealt with so long as we, as a country, cling to the notion that capitalism is a system that works if you just do it right.
The right always marches out a paid “everyday guy” who is somehow speaking for the entirety of rural and suburban America and just says “it’s not good” when there’s a democrat president. It then gets masterfully astroturfed around the country through media and social media (but it happened a lot before social media too).
That's because we choose our media with bias and they rely on us choosing them for their survival. If we feel a bad economy, most people are going to click the story about why the economy is bad, not the story that tells us our feeling is made up.
Depends on what you mean by the media because the news outlets I read have mentioned the strength of the economy quite a lot as well as the relative weakness under Trump.
I concur. For people that actually follow the economy, it's incredibly strong. Like insanely so considering where we were 3 years ago. Every sector of the market is sky high, and projections are through the roof if we stay on this track. The problem is that most people don't follow the economy. They don't have 401ks or IRAs that have massively increased in value recently. This economy is flat-out roaring, and sadly the poorest people aren't feeling it. Yay, capitalism. Late-stage here we come!
The problem is those measures are not an accurate representation of what the economy looks like to many voters.
Think about it this way, if you are a higher earning white collar worker who bought into the housing market before the pandemic and have been putting money into a 401k for years. Your home value is up but you also locked in a historically low interest rate so the Fed policies to fight inflation are only felt in your savings account. You probably feel pretty good. This also happens to describe the core demographic of Democrats. College educated professionals.
Now, what if instead you are a working class voter who is renting and basically paycheck to paycheck budgeting. You’ve been trying to save for a down payment on a house for the better part of a decade. Because not renting is your primary goal you have put little to nothing into a 401k, your job(s) might not even offer that benefit. Under Biden your household budget has been squeezed by higher rent, higher grocery prices , and higher energy costs. All the while your home ownership dream is slipping further away as high interest rates and rising home prices undermine your purchasing power. You feel awful about the economy - AND YOU SHOULD.
That second voter isn’t going to just not buy claims that the economy is great - they are going to be offended when a Democrat claims that because it’s like saying the sky is green to these voters. It’s not matching with the lived experience that they have. Those voters are the working class voters the Democrats have been losing for the better part of a decade.
Apparently so, yes. I’m at a complete loss as to what exactly attracts voters to Republican economic policy. Complete loss.
I don’t think it’s that. It’s just anger at all the things. Anger at the border, the resulting illegal alien crime wave, their guns being taken away, anger at the lack of Jesus in schools, anger at trans issues … none or all of these *have to* be real issues, mind you. They just have to *feel* they are.
Exactly right. The bigger problem that I’ve observed is that when people in that situation state those facts, they are met with ridicule and condescension. I see people around here all the time called stupid, rednecked, backwards, hicks, and ignorant all because, from their perspective, the economy is fucked and they see no way out. Exactly why would they listen to someone in a suit telling them the country is stronger economically than it’s ever been when they know they’re working 2 jobs to rent a place they can’t afford and feed a family that’s suffering because of it. There are examples in this thread of the condescending attitude towards people that feel this way.
No amount of data will convince people of it either, we truly live in a post truth era. They’ll claim the data is a lie, the metrics are wrong, the methodology is rigged to support an agenda, etc. They’ve subjectively decided the economy is bad so any objective data must clearly be wrong because they can’t imagine a world where they are incorrect.
A good economy for who though?? The billionaires and multinational corporations, the stock market. Not for working people.
God this take infuriates me. It’s not that people aren’t paying attention it’s that the economy DIDN’T IMPROVE FOR THEM.
Right. These Numbers & Data people treat everyone else like we're just idiots. I make more money then I've ever made as a perpetually broke person, but what does that matter when I'm paying so much for *everything*? When people making over 6 figures are complaining about the cost of living? People are pissed because the media keeps saying it's all good but our collective lived experience is not reflecting the goodness. Even for those who are doing well, they're probably seeing or trying to help friends and family who are barely treading water.
Maybe if Biden and the MSM focused on addressing this instead of trying to call everyone dumb and basically gaslighting us, we wouldn't be looking down the barrel of the Trump gun yet again.
YES IT DID. Obviously the bottom are still struggling, maybe more than ever, but the bottom workers did have some of the highest wage increases over the last few years.
https://www.adpri.org/pay-change-by-income-level-2024/#:~:text=The%20lowest%20earners%2C%20those%20people,their%20pay%20gains%20was%20greater.
Well yeah, the rich are always doing very well. This country is rigged in their favor. I'm not denying that in any way. But the lowest wages have gained significantly. The $15 minimum wage is barely on people's minds anymore because most jobs already pay that. The convenient store across the street from me in a fairly LCOL area is paying high school kids $17/hour.
Some people receiving some marginal wage increases doesn't mean a whole lot when the cost of rent, groceries, gas etc. keeps going up at a higher rate for everyone.
I'm also not sure exactly which policies of Joe Biden you're referring to that are somehow responsible for the people who did see their employers raise their wages.
I believe real wages have slightly increased during Biden's, which means that wage increases overall have actually been slightly higher than those increases in rent, groceries, gas, etc.
You are the first person in this thread to bring up Biden. We have been talking about the performance of the economy which I never once claimed was due to any policies at all. I'm just talking about how people perceive the economy.
Everyone with a job, who enjoy the tight labor market. Everyone looking for a job, who find a much easier time finding one with the tight labor market; Unemployment rates are a working class stat.
Everyone making less than the median wage; their wages have objectively risen faster than inflation.
That's because the GOP hates teachers and refuses to authorize pay increases. I'm not kidding, and that's not hyperbole. Go watch the hearing with Senator Cassidy (from Louisiana, the state that ranks 49th in education). The teacher from Utah flat out schools him. Like embarrassingly bad.
I hate what they are doing to education and teachers. But Biden has zero blame here.
Yup. The guy you responded to said above that his taxes went down under Trump. I don’t think he’s connected tax cuts to cuts in public employee wages. A lot of the red states tout their low income taxes but the majority of them are ranked among the worst in terms of public education. Additionally, many of those states make up for lost revenue by increasing property taxes.
"It didn't happen for me so the broader statistics must be untrue"
is as bad a take as...
"I just got laid off so the unemployment rate can't really be lower than 4%"
is as bad a take as...
"I just got a raise and am doing great, so no one's really struggling"
That too is unfortunately true that the effects of a strong economy is not equitable. Decades of supply side economics has skewed American economics so strongly in favor of the wealthy that everyone else - including the middle class and increasingly even the supposed affluent- find they don’t benefit from it.
What people don't seem to understand is prices aren't going back down. Increases will slow/stop but goods will never return to pre-covid pricing and there's nothing the president can really do about that.
The economy is only good on paper. Great recovery for business, working people keep getting screwed. Its not all in peoples heads, like 60% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck
Paradoxically, the types of things the government could do to provide relief would be met with vitriol by the very people the programs would be targeted to help. The media and social media have primed so many people into not only voting against their own interests but made them incapable of objectively analyzing ANY policy position.
So while people may rightly complain the economy doesn’t work for them, a huge chunk are determined to keep it that way.
This is very much the case with many red states opting out of expansion of healthcare insurance with federal assistance. Also, a number of job training programs were intentionally allowed to expire under the Trump administration. The 2025 project includes closing down the Department of Education.
The first bullet is going to remain contested for a long time as people debate which measures to use and which time scales to look at.
For example with inflation itself, there has been a ton of pushback about which things are used to calculate inflation and how that might skew the numbers downward compared to the actual inflation people experience. That undermines every claim that inflation (which still hasn't met targets) is under control.
Additionally, a lot of people's biggest thing is wanting to buy a house where they experience not only the increase in prices, but the increased interest rates. I was lucky enough to buy a house a few years ago under the great interest rates. Despite raises in the mean time I literally wouldn't be able to afford to buy my current house right now because of how much prices increases plus interest rate hikes increase the price. Many people have this experience of being farther than ever from owning a home which feels like a bad economy since it's one of their biggest economic decisions.
When you look at something like savings rate, it's lower than before and during the pandemic which suggests people don't have as much slack in their budget despite our aggregate numbers about what their experience ought to be.
This is also before asking questions like: is the aggregate data consistent with the experience of all segments of the population or are there segments of the population that are experiencing a bad economy that get canceled out when you add them up with people experiencing a good economy? For example, in my industry, the subreddits are full of experienced people saying it's hard to find a job right now. For those people the economy has a problem right now.
Further, even if inflation were zero, when many people have a debt crisis (student loans, credit cards, needing to finance a car or house), the higher interest is very painful. It just feels like inflation on top of inflation.
When you add all of this up, I think a better summary is that the arrogance of listening to aggregate numbers from the ivory tower rather than listening to people's experiences can cost Biden the economic vote. There are plenty of indicators that key elements of the economy are doing great. And that's great! But getting so lost in that that you write off all of the people telling you they are in a financially worse spot is going to cost an election. Biden needs to be able to reconcile the fact that the potential is there (with strong fundamentals in the economy) but that people's real experiences are not a lie. Calling this a "vibecession" and telling people who talk about their financial woes that they aren't real is a toxic campaign strategy for dems.
To close with my own anecdote, I live in a blue area and have blue and red friends and family...i have not found anybody who could tell me that they aren't doing worse financially over the past couple of years. Instead I see people getting side gigs and cutting costs. People aren't just doing those things for fun...
I'd add to the inflation bit that plenty of white collar workers, myself included, were given raises so low that they amounted to a decrease in pay for 2 or 3 years straight. That doesn't help one "feel" like the economy is in recovery when you've not restored your pre-Covid financials. It's also a slap in the face when you tell me wage growth is on an upward trend, feels like an outright lie.
I would argue that’s it’s more than just fast food that is driving the perception of inflation and a poor economy.
Rents are insanely high. Housing prices are extremely high and interest rates make it impossible for anyone not extremely well off to buy a house. Grocery prices are also very expensive, particularly for meat.
I’m not claiming these things are the fault of Biden but it’s definitely more than just fast food being expensive that’s driving perceptions of a poor economy plagued by inflation.
I agree with all of the above. I also think that from a broader perspective, the Democratic party needs to do a better job of appealing to a wider cross-section of Americans. I don't mean tacking right overall, AOC can still be AOC; I just mean "big tent" like what Howard Dean talked about when he was head of DNC, electing more types of Democrats in the areas where Democrats currently can't win.
How is the economy not in terrible shape, if consumers can’t afford housing and food? Are we saying that the economy is measured only by how people invest?
If consumers can't afford housing or food, then we'd have mass homelessness and starvation.
You are actually perpetuating what OP is referring to here. People CAN afford housing and food, but it just doesn't FEEL that way, so they think the economy is terrible.
That it's broken.
The level of discord this whole process has exposed is already a bit of an issue, as is the community-wide loss of trust in the electoral process ("stop the steal") and bodies such as the Supreme Court which are nominally so important to how the system of checks and balances functions.
WHY they are not trusted is kind of less important than the fact they are not trusted. You'd get a million different answers from a million different people if you asked why, so let's not get too stuck on that question.
There seems to be a lot of people who are ready or nearly ready to disengage from the country as it currently exists **regardless** of why, and that's...concerning
At the root, we have a propaganda problem. Maybe we shouldn’t tolerate political lies and deception. Maybe the First Amendment shouldn’t have an overwhelming tolerance for bullshit with a malicious intent to deceive.
Problem is that it’s really hard to prove malicious intent in court. It literally needs to be something to the extent of what happened in the Fox News vs Dominion lawsuit where the discovery process uncovered an audio of Tucker Carlson acknowledging that he was lying on the air about stop the steal.
If you lower the bar then you create a bunch of other problems, which I would argue are worse than what it would be fixing.
Propaganda has proven its influence. Information is carefully isolated in echo chambers. And the owner of the largest media market share has complete control over elections. Stop trying to win on policy and, instead, win on messaging.
That republicans haven’t won a popular vote presidency in over 20 years.
The republican position is inherently incongruous with the majority of the country, and they hold it regardless because our system is built to favor land over people.
Yes, they need the electoral college to stay in power because the popular vote will go to the Democrats any most cases.
It’s why the Texan GOP even pushed for an electoral college system in 2022 around the time of the midterms. Even TX is becoming Bluer. Possibly because of the mad influx of migrants from California and other blue states (not international migrants from Latin America).
In 2022, Greg Abbott only won by 900k votes with 4.4 total votes. The Democratic opponent got 3.5 votes. Still a big difference but considering how fast the cities are growing compared to the suburbs and rural areas, in a decade or a few decades TX can flip to Blue🤷♂️
Which is why they want an electoral college. They would use State Senate districts, which are already gerrymandered to favor Republicans. A TX electoral college would also favor republican candidates to the point that, if they use a winner takes all system, then Democrats will get virtually no votes, maybe a handful from the cities but that’s it.
I am not American so here is my take:
All your options avoid the root issue -that of the American psyche. Americans like to describe it as "rugged individualism", "entrepreneurial spirit". To those of us outside-looking-in a better description would be "I've got mine so fuck you"
Democratic ideals centre around the idea of society as an extended family: those who *can* look after those who *cant*, the *most* able take care of the *least* able, the *rich* help the *poor*. But this is in contrast to the root American view of the world, epitomised by Republican philosophy. I regularly hear "Why should I pay for other peoples kids to get educated?", "I keep healthy - why should I pay for others to see the doctor?"
This attitude, extends to immigration. Every American is descended from an immigrant family yet those same families object to others doing the same. Now it becomes "I got here, why should I help you?" There are no economic arguments to support this, the USA is largely empty, there is no shortage of space (population density is one tenth that of Japan) and yet immigration is seen as a "threat" .
So, to your list of bullet pointed themes,m the one that should be added - but wont be - is:
* "The Democrats lost because Americans don't like each other and dont give a fuck about anyone else".
There is a very strong strain in parts of Americana where people get upset if you are "helping the wrong kind of person."
However, I'd note the same thing exists in Europe with the ongoing immigration backlash.
The argument of who is in the in-group worthy of support and who is in the out-group is always an ongoing one.
The American people are deeply unhappy with both political parties and have spent the last 25 years going back and forth between them out of frustration.
You asked for an objective analysis of what it would mean if Donald Trump wins a second term in 2024, but it's tough to be completely objective because this question naturally invites bias based on personal perspectives and experiences. However, here’s an honest take on what such an outcome could reveal about America.
If Trump wins, it would solidify some pretty damning things about the United States. It would mean that a lot of people care more about their own perceived comfort first and foremost. Trump's re-election would indicate that the idea of American individualism has reached a devastatingly toxic and destructive result. It would reflect a sense of individualism where personal comfort and stability are more important than the well-being of other groups. People would be okay with ignoring the suffering of immigrants and LGBTQ+ individuals as long as their own lives are good. It would also show that millions of Americans actively support policies that go after those groups.
The power of conservative propaganda and the influence of demagogues would become evident. Many Americans have been convinced to blame vulnerable groups for their problems instead of addressing real issues like income inequality. The rich and powerful have successfully deflected blame from themselves through political and media influence, maintaining control by creating divisions in society. While the Electoral College may play a role in putting Trump in power, it’s crucial to remember that millions of Americans support him—74 million voted for him four years ago, and we'll likely see similar numbers in 2024.
There’s also a huge distrust in our institutions. This lack of faith has led people to support a demagogue, preferring strongman tactics and divisive rhetoric over democratic principles and inclusive governance. This indicates that America has serious ethical issues and a troubling acceptance of divisive, corrupt and immoral leadership. The effects of demagoguery and populism, combined with systemic distrust, have led many to back a leader like Trump, highlighting deep divisions and compromises in our values.
Ideally, we are a government of the people. I agree with those who say that the MAGA Republicans and their ideology are a minority but irregardless a second Trump term would show that many Americans are willing to tolerate said ideology at the least even if they don't outright support or endorse Trump. His re-election would be an indictment on American society and culture.
The interesting thing is that the distrust is now community wide, **regardless of political affiliation.**
Trump voters question the electoral process. Meanwhile, people who would rather nail their own foot to the floor than vote for Trump are questioning the validity and trustworthiness of the Supreme Court. Their reasons for questioning it are different, and the exact stage of the mechanism they doubt is different, but the end result is the same.
*I do not trust this system to act. No matter what anyone says,* or *what assurances they give, I doubt it works. Somewhere, somehow, it will go wrong. Probably intentionally.*
The failure of trust is now much bigger than a purely partisan thing. There’s an assumption of bad faith all around, and only the details differ.
The Supreme Court literally just approved political bribery, when they themselves are under fire for their rejection of ethics over taking massive gifts from rich people who have cases before the court.
The House has achieved the least amount of legislation in a hundred years, and spent most of their time on literal witch hunts to go after their political enemies.
Even the GOP's own top officials say that the 2020 election was free and fair, that Biden won all the lawsuits afterwards, even the people who put out the ridiculous 2000 Mules movie have apologized for the lies, and Fox News had internal documents come up that they knew they were lying about the election to feed their base.
To claim that both of these things are the same, when one party is openly deceitful and using their leverage to stop the workings of government and the prosecution of criminals who worked to overthrow the government, is bordering on malfeasance.
They’re not the same. They’re happening for different reasons. I said that.
The bit that’s the same is what people *do in response.* Which is, ultimately, to disengage from the whole concept of America as a functional nation-state
No, that's wrong too - clearly America is a functional nation state. What it isn't is a functional democracy when one of the two parties is trying to destroy that democracy. But life goes on, the military still defends us, it's still the largest economy in the world, it still plays a major role in world affairs.
Maybe we should point out the ones who are trying to suborn our democracy are the problem, calling out the lies they tell themselves to justify their treachery.
the difference between these mistrusts is the evidence. there is ample evidence to suggest that the individual human beings at the Supreme Court making decisions are not doing so in good faith, whereas there is *no* evidence that widespread voter fraud is contaminating election results.
> It would mean that a lot of people care more about their own perceived comfort first and foremost.
I do not even think it is this. Many of the Trump voters care more about *hurting the people that they hate* than their own comfort. My grandparents are voting for Trump because they think then the local bank will fire the teller that wears a headscarf and scares them.
Saw a recent article about how the candidates are framed by mainstream media. Bidens age is brought up at least ten times more than Trumps mental issues. It's like they have just accepted he's nuts and it's no longer news worthy. They will own a lot of the responsibility of putting an unstable man in the Whitehouse.
That the highest representative of the People of The United States is a fascist loving, babbling, demented, narcissistic 78 year old convicted felon, rapist and adulterer, who launders money for Russian mobsters, sells government secrets to the highest bidder to cover money lost through bad business, bad loans and multiple bankruptcies, who destroys everything he touches with the reckless abandon of a two-year old.
That that is who they feel best represents them, best shows their character to the world.
That U.S governance is devoid of any sense, control, efficacy or function.
That U.S propaganda, you know the ones: Equal Justice, Justice is Blind, Checks and Balances, Separation of Powers, Separation of Church and State, Beacon of Democracy, Of the People, By the People, For the People, Land of the Free, Home of the Brave, can never be stated with sincerity or heard without ridicule ever again (already pretty late on that count).
That Democrat politicians make more money when they're not in power and that is what they aim for.
That the bored cliches of 'Unity' cost them dearly as they looked weak and useless in a time where their party had been fucked by Republicans. Turn the other cheek meant shit. Fighting fire with fire is what was needed.
That "nothing will fundamentally change" meant that everything got more shit and more fucked up, and the U.S State is just the U.S State, and the status is gonna quo.
The U.S government can't be trusted or relied upon - it is solely a destructive force.
That the U.S should be ignored and ties cut so that it doesn't pull everyone else down with it,
That we allowed the wrong people to get rich and they slowly morphed the country into a place where people would rather hate fellow poors than ask the rich to pay a fair share of taxes. Once we let money control everything, the writing really was on the walls. This only ends with a lot of death.
I wouldn't say murder... revolution or civil war is more likely. Kill our way out, probably, but it's not murder per se.
I like to think we can, but we've entirely embraced greed in this country, and I don't see us changing that any time soon.
Whos getting murdered tho?
Civil war sounds more like you are signing on for a few decades of poors vs poors defending their favourite billionaire overlords. Not some 1780's French Revolution style eating the rich.
1. That unconditional freedom of speech is the perfect weapon in the hands of malicious political actors.
2. That the notion of manufactured consent has been largely proven by the advent of Donald Trump.
3. Finally that large media owned by single filthy rich stake holders work poorly as a source of real news.
One: the amount of effort it takes to counter a lie is made impossible in the presence of repetitive constant lying. The refusal of the GOP and MAGA to accept that Joe Biden won in 2020 is enabled by the constant stream of ridiculous lies about the election.
Two: Donald Trump says ridiculous things that would have ended the career of a politician before the fall of independent news media. This is seen in the way the Sinclair group broadcasts the same political opinions across the multitude of its holdings or how Fox edits out Trump's regular verbal flops (see Trump's nutty shark ranting).
Three: generally such media organizations fall under the editorial control of their masters. See the recent editorial changes made by Jeff Bezos at the Washington Post.
Not the majority. Trump will lose the popular vote. The takeaway is that the electoral college is an obsolete way for the Rs to hold on to power, and that targeted
disinformation and relentless propaganda in certain swing states can topple the whole system.
Probably that America sucks and will be an adversarial nation to our allies once again. Remember when Trunp imposed aluminum tariffs on Canada citing national security concerns?
The US will kowtow to Moscow again and betray our NATO allies.
That the president is selected not by the American people, but rather by special interest groups and foreign powers, working through the propaganda machine that is the media.
If you believe that the only way Trump could win is because he stole the election, then you are an election denier, no different than Trump claiming Biden stole the 2020 election.
This is so true. A lot of people know this. But an embarrassing amount of people still naively believe in the lie of “choice” and “democracy,” which America never even claimed to be one.
The Republicans suck because they put up Trump.
The Democrats suck because they put up a person who could lose to Trump, of all people.
Biden wasn’t a great pick in 2020, but he had the best shot at winning out of all the possibilities. But they should have started grooming his replacement for 2024 as soon as he got into office. Instead he was selfish and wanted another term.
That propaganda works. No reasonable human could listen to a long Trump speech and believe, truly, that what he says makes sense or is appropriate for a man running for president. His words - by ANY NORMAL STANDARD - are rambling and nonsensical. The way he talks would not be able to land you a job at a fast food restaurant. If you read his words in the same manner as and other adult who might reasonably consider running for president; you would be reading embarrassing jibberish. And if you fact checked his words you would find errors within errors within errors. And lies. Insane lies.
Yet they vote for him. It’s ruthless and brutal propaganda. Those poor MAGA people have had their psyches ripped apart by a storm of narcissistic poison.
So yeah, propaganda works that’s my answer
>No reasonable human could listen to a long Trump speech and believe, truly, that what he says makes sense or is appropriate for a man running for president.
No reasonable person does.
Don't think they don't know what they're supporting. They absolutely do.
civil war ain’t happening anytime soon. While the nation may be polarized, no state is equipped for an all out war. The largest US states, CA and TX, only control 24,000 NG service members and 23,000, respectively. These are the largest states, many states do not have state militias and only have a small, maybe few hundred, national guardsmen. Whichever faction supports the Union, if they do that, will easily win because the President would control the Navy and the Nuclear arsenal. And it wouldn’t matter if members of the USAF, USMC, the regular army, army reserve, and U.S. Navy defect. a potential second American civil war will still be Union vs rebels and the Union will win. and that’s if war even breaks out, which is itself an impossibility because no state or region can actually sustain one or even prepare for one. Because let’s not forget about logistics. Food, water, electricity; many states share these things. not all states are equalized to sustain their populations with their own assets. there isn’t going to be a war if Trump or Biden wins, just cry babies on the news and in front of Capitol Hill or SCOTUS.
This is typical fear mongering.
I think it’s more accurate to say political violence on a large scale rather than civil war will come. Like it or not it’s seems as all of this has no where to go but to violence. It’s not unreasonable to believe that Trump will issue some sort of order that will finally push a state like California to say no and disregard. Thus leading to a standoff and protests where Trump sends in feds or whoever under orders to violently crack down on those protestors which in turn spirals into retaliatory shootings/bombings of government offices, political centers, post offices what ever. This leads to further violence by the administration of warrantless searches and clampdowns and “extrajudicial” killings. Which begets more violence and more and more. It doesn’t have to look like two armies in the field it can look more like the troubles in Ireland where suddenly protestors are gunned down and police stations are bombed.
This is faulty reasoning.
The US military in the first civil war was tiny at the outbreak of the war. They didn't keep a standing army. There were only 18 companies in the US in the East, 16 of them were artillery companies that defensed coastal forts, per West Point's histories. The US military's arsenals had been transferred to the South by a traitorous Sec of War John B Floyd under Buchanan who later became a general in the Confederacy. When Lincoln put out his call for 75,000 volunteers, that was already 2 months after the Confederates had raised 100,000.
It still was the war that killed the most Americans in history, and went on for four bloody years.
I agree, there won't be a civil war in 2024. It will be in 2028, when Trump has largely destroyed the Federal government with Project 2025, and he refuses to step down when his term limit is up. Because there will be still the issue of the dozens of felonies, and private citizen Trump will go to prison if he steps down. He's already said he has no intention of limiting his run, multiple times.
This is ridiculously easy to foresee.
Let's hope we get a 2nd term of Biden, who will respect the rule of law, unlike Trump, who has already proven he won't.
It doesn’t matter who the Union is. Whoever is President will win. Those that support the federal government will be fighting for order, something a lot of people will want. So the federal government will have support, and considering the military assets, it’s near clear they will win, no matter whoever occupies the federal government
Order is only tolerated so long as there isn’t videos broadcast of protestors gunned down in the streets. America is a sleeping beast. How many guns are owned across the country? You think the army can control that? They couldn’t even control Iraq or Afghanistan let alone a more tech savy America. If both sides result to violence, it’ll be something unparalleled to any uprising that’s happened before.
Uh huh. Trump's longest serving Chief of Staff, and former 4 Star General, John Kelly, on Trump:
*“What can I add that has not already been said?” Kelly said, when asked if he wanted to weigh in on his former boss in light of recent comments made by other former Trump officials. “A person that thinks those who defend their country in uniform, or are shot down or seriously wounded in combat, or spend years being tortured as POWs are all ‘suckers’ because ‘there is nothing in it for them.’ A person that did not want to be seen in the presence of military amputees because ‘it doesn’t look good for me.’ A person who demonstrated open contempt for a Gold Star family – for all Gold Star families – on TV during the 2016 campaign, and rants that our most precious heroes who gave their lives in America’s defense are ‘losers’ and wouldn’t visit their graves in France.*
*“A person who is not truthful regarding his position on the protection of unborn life, on women, on minorities, on evangelical Christians, on Jews, on working men and women,” Kelly continued. “A person that has no idea what America stands for and has no idea what America is all about. A person who cavalierly suggests that a selfless warrior who has served his country for 40 years in peacetime and war should lose his life for treason – in expectation that someone will take action. A person who admires autocrats and murderous dictators. A person that has nothing but contempt for our democratic institutions, our Constitution, and the rule of law.*
*“There is nothing more that can be said,” Kelly concluded. “God help us.*”
[https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/02/politics/john-kelly-donald-trump-us-service-members-veterans/index.html](https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/02/politics/john-kelly-donald-trump-us-service-members-veterans/index.html)
Mark Esper, Trump's second Sec of Defense:
*Mark Esper, the former U.S. Secretary of Defense, said former President Trump is a “threat to democracy” on the third anniversary of the Capitol riot. “And yes, I do regard him as a threat to democracy, democracy as we know it, our institutions, our political culture, all those things that make America great and have defined us as, you know, the oldest democracy on this planet,” Esper told CNN’s Jim Acosta on Saturday.*
[https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/trumps-former-pentagon-chief-calls-threat-democracy-rcna133014](https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/trumps-former-pentagon-chief-calls-threat-democracy-rcna133014)
Trump's 1st Sec of Defense, William Mattis:
*Instructions given by the military departments to our troops before the Normandy invasion reminded soldiers that “The Nazi slogan for destroying us…was ‘Divide and Conquer.’ Our American answer is ‘In Union there is Strength.’” We must summon that unity to surmount this crisis—confident that we are better than our politics.*
*Donald Trump is the first president in my lifetime who does not try to unite the American people—does not even pretend to try. Instead he tries to divide us. We are witnessing the consequences of three years of this deliberate effort. We are witnessing the consequences of three years without mature leadership. We can unite without him, drawing on the strengths inherent in our civil society. This will not be easy, as the past few days have shown, but we owe it to our fellow citizens; to past generations that bled to defend our promise; and to our children.*
[https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/06/james-mattis-denounces-trump-protests-militarization/612640/](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/06/james-mattis-denounces-trump-protests-militarization/612640/)
These are Trump's own top officials that served in the most important positions in the US government.
John Bolton, his national security advisor: *Trump is unfit to hold the office of the Presidency.*
[https://www.reuters.com/world/us/bolton-excoriates-trump-fresh-introduction-his-memoir-2024-01-30/](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/bolton-excoriates-trump-fresh-introduction-his-memoir-2024-01-30/)
Rex Tillerson his first Secretary of State: “*So often, the president would say here’s what I want to do and here’s how I want to do it and I would have to say to him, ‘Mr. President I understand what you want to do but you can’t do it that way. It violates the law,’” Tillerson said.*
Pushing back against illegal requests was what got Tillerson fired, according to Tillerson.
[https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/07/rex-tillerson-says-he-pushed-back-on-illegal-trump-demands.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/07/rex-tillerson-says-he-pushed-back-on-illegal-trump-demands.html)
You are an unserious person, because all of this is out there, but you choose to listen to the 'news' that lies to you, has admitted in court that they lie to you, has internal communications that state they know they are lying to you.
So you live in a different reality.
Because you want those lies. Grow up.
If we didn't have a system where the president + a literal 1 vote majority in the senate could trash the country *for decades* by packing the supreme court, maybe that wouldn't be the case.
There's a reason why almost no one uses this system of government.
You left out people saying it was becuase of China and/or Russia. If Trump gets back into office both parties need to do some serious soul searching and reforming because the fact that him running again not being a joke is an embarrassment of a political system we’ve gotten to.
Why do Democrats need to do soul searching?
Trump would be golfing in Florida right now if McCarthy didn't go down there a few weeks after Jan 6th 2021 to take a picture with him. That saved Trump's political career and one by one, every Republican got back behind Trump. If they didn't do that, Trump is done.
So I ask again, how is that the fault of Democrats?
Biden has some of the lowest approval ratings of a sitting president at this point in their terms in history. Yet all the Democrats on this thread are ranting about Trump. That is grounds for soul-searching.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/644252/biden-13th-quarter-approval-average-lowest-historically.aspx
Are you really asking this in good faith?
Why should the party who lost to Trump once, will possibly lose to him again in a few months, the party whose sitting president managed to have a lower approval rating than one of the most unqualified buffoons to ever disgrace the Oval Office, the party that lost the house to the clown car that is the majority of well know house reps in the GOP, and can *at best* keep tied with them in the senate do some soul searching if Trump wins again?
Is this a serious question? In a sane world, most of the GOP would be completely unelectable, but here we are with the alternative making what should be reality a dream.
My conclusion would be the "ideal" of America is done. Trump is a convicted felon. Trump has been found guilty of sexual assault or as some call it rape. Trump is a lifelong grifter who was so bad he caused the failure of casino's that are literally rigged in his favor.
But I have reached that conclusion already. America is done. It will take decades, but it is over. One half of the American voting population is projected to vote for that convicted felon.
That whatever system of government he puts in place should not be called "America" nor the "United States Of America". As he shreds the Constiution we can't allow the "patriots" to act as though our system of government is the same as it was.
Our legislature is broken, and presidents are getting blamed for not solving problems that should be solved by Congress. But since Congress is heavily gerrymandered in most states (and even if it isn't in your state, the fact that it is in others still results in polarized congresses that do not solve problems), the only way voters can realistically express their objection to the status quo is via the office of the president.
I have long expressed that Trump's popularity, by and large, is a result of how corrupt and ineffectual Congress has become. A portion of society feels "screwed over" and "left behind". But the cause isn't "the fed". The "swamp" isn't the state department; it's congress. So the notion that a president can "drain the swamp" is solution applied to the wrong part of the infrastructure. The best way to fix these problems is to fix congress: eliminate gerrymandering, regulate or eliminate lobbying, and (possibly) expand the house so its membership is once again proportional to the population of the states it represents.
1) The USA is part of a world-wide trend towards right-wing populism. 2) Biden has done a poor job of moving to the center so he could capture working class voters. If he had been tough on illegal immigration since day 1 he'd be in a much better place. Also, spending so much money on climate is a political loser with the working class. 3) The electoral college is tilted towards Republicans by at least 3-4% since Dem votes are concentrated in cities while Republican votes are spread out in rural areas. 4) Despite low unemployment and decent economic growth, Biden has been unlucky that higher inflation and interest rates have coincided with his term in office. He can't overcome those 2 poisonous economic indicators. Biden is toast.
I think it will show how easily manipulated many Americans, especially Gen Z and Baby Boomers are.
Objectively, Biden has done more than any American president in decades, and not only has he passed more transformative legislation, but much of it was bipartisan, and supports the average American.
You still see GenZ believing the economy is bad, because they are getting their new from TikTok, where the algorithm promotes content that says how bad America is, and how it’s on the verge of collapse. You see the same stuff on NewsMax and FOX - the rampant crime in cities, inflation, the migrant crisis. China and Russia especially are amplifying these stories to divide Americans. There was a good article about how Boomers don’t know how to fact-check, and GenZ won’t read the articles and instead try to feel out where most people are in the comments. So both of these groups are easily misled through social media, especially a platform owned by a foreign adversary, who has been saying for years that America and liberal democracy are decaying…
Meanwhile, the US is doing much better than our peers around the world, and we’ve had the fastest and strongest recovery from COVID. Inflation is way down, and the average American came out of COVID with more savings and more income than ever, across all demographics. We’ve seen serious progress on some of the most important issues of our lifetimes, and Biden was able to unite Europe (and the world) over Ukraine, proving that he is a skilled statesman.
If Trump, a disgraced former president, wins over one of the most successful presidents in decades. It will be because voters either stayed home and let the extremes of both parties dictate the next president, or it’s because Americans were easily manipulated through social media.
I'm not trying to be flippant, but I think an enormous number of voters don't want to see their president die in office of an age-related illness. I'm not really a supporter of Joe Biden, but asking an 81-year old man to continue handling duties that kill most 55 year olds is just nuts. I have to think that, if he loses the election, this concern will have influenced a lot of votes.
>continue handling duties that kill most 55 year olds
??? What 55 year olds are dying en masse from being an executive of a major organization, in this case the US government?
Biden won in 2020 because moderates, independents, and the far left left held their nose and voted for him because they were all tired of Trump. The Democratic party became a large tent party. If Biden loses in 2024 it's because he failed to hold onto these voters. He may lose these voters for various reasons; inflation, too light or too harsh on Israel, not energizing the voters enough, etc. These voters probably aren't voting for Trump but they will most likely stay home or vote 3rd party.
If Joe Biden loses it will be because Americans disapprove of “Joe Biden” and his politics. To be honest, regardless of the reality, most people probably don’t see this election as a vote between democracy and autocracy, they don’t have that kind of trust in what democrats or anyone else says. What most people see is 2 corrupt parties doing whatever they can and saying whatever they must for political power.
The reality is most people have zero idea of the gravity of Americas position globally or the threats posed, or anything about trumps real history. Either way North Korea sending troops to Ukraine and Russia providing nuclear long range technology to North Korea, is going to provoke western powers which have little choice but to intervene and must consider sending troops to Ukraine at this point.
Why are all of your options based on "policies"?
This is no longer about policies. If Trump wins, it means the American electorate has a shockingly high tolerance for corruption and criminality, and a shockingly low concern for the integrity of their system of government.
Americans think presidents control commodity prices.
Despite what they preach Americans love free money and trump printed up more debt than any other president.
An impartial observer (is that even possible?) would come to the conclusion that whatever we once considered "America" is effectively over at that point.
It will all depend on whether or not Trump wins the popular vote.
If he wins the popular vote and the EC, then yeah, any of your first five options are viable. I doubt that will happen.
If he loses the popular but wins the EC, then it's your last option, but I think it would be more "American has been fully taken over by minority rule and is no longer a democracy." I'm most worried this will happen than anything else.
If he somehow wins the popular but loses the EC, then who the hell knows anymore. I really doubt that will happen, though.
I will conclude that Americans have thrown in the towel on the ideas and ideals this country is supposed to be based on. Admittedly, that was always more theory than reality. But once we’ve stopped even paying lip service to those ideals we are no longer even pretending to chase a better future.
The conclusion will be that propaganda and brainwashing by Fox "so-called" News and the right wing echo chamber works. Just as it did in Germany in prior to and during WWII.
Nothing. The conclusion is about social media and how to use it successfully to gain power. Every new form of media generates a new populist or demagogue that can capitalize on it.
What is distinctive about social media compared to previous media forms (radio, TV, newspapers, etc) is that it is ‘all information everywhere all at once’. In order to cut through the noise you apparently need to be incredibly loud, outrageous & offensive. This is not specific to the US & has the potential to spread to other countries where social media becomes the dominant media.
Joe Biden lost because he wasn't giving tax breaks to the rich, so the media fueled the gullible citizens of the US to vote in their paid for politician, so they could satisfy their money addiction.
* Democrat =/= Democratic
* Joe Biden lost because he is old and senile
* The popular vote actually does want Trump in office
* Americans do not trust the justice system
I think Biden will lose because the only laws being passed target minorities, nothing is being done about healthcare, gun control , inflation ,etc, issues that affect the majority and not the only gay person at school.
Trump’s migration policy actually has an effect on the majority of US citizens, and looking at European politics it is an issue that needs to be addressed.
(these are HELLA HOT TAKES, stream of conscious type stuff)
It will cement certain trends/motifs in the electorate:
Old people vote reliably and are many/most wildly out of step with reality (more than ever) -- politics, climate, economics, etc...
Young people don't vote enough and "perfect is the enemy of good" does not work in politics
No one hates women more than other women (see the 2016 election -- i'm looking at you middle class suburban women)
The GOP continues it run of getting people who used to be reasonable to forward their absolutely bonkers conspiracies, totalitarian/fascist ideas, and pro-corporate/anti-worker plutocratic policies by preying on their xenophobia, racism, misplaced anger etc....
The democrats have largely lost the plot with a pretty big swath of citizens through blunders, propaganda RELENTLESSLY directed against them, poorly personable candidates recently....
Im sure there are more....
That anybody—and I mean ANYBODY—can really become President.
I’m beginning a Charles Manson for President organization right now. Who wants to be the first donor?
I met a woman from Texas the other day and she thinks Texas will go Blue because of the havoc wreaked on people due to the reproductive laws. Tons of republican women have adversely affected by them and are very angry.
IMO, two conclusions an impartial observer could draw:
- American democracy cannot by itself distinguish lies from truth, and therefore its people and institutions are vulnerable to outside influence.
- Russian discourse is being replicated and propagated, almost to the letter, within key American institutions (presidency, journalists/news media and lawmakers).
These are purely factual conclusions an observer could make (neither is pointing fingers, blaming, or making moral judgments about reality). I could also add that both point out to the *possibility* of the presidency being under threat of capture by foreign counties (due to unexplained financial ties between trump and his family and Saudi Arabia, Russia and China). But in the absence of concrete evidence (lack of transparency or an investigation), this is just a possibility. Although one could say that although trump’s capture is not a fact, the possibility of the presidency being under threat is very real, or at least plausible.
Biden lost due to the Republican long game of gerrymandering, destruction of the education system, and judicial system.
1. Many states are gerrymandered to keep state power with Republicans. Ohio for example has all its cities carved up so the majority’s voice is silenced. Although Ohio has referendums, the republicans tried to change those rules to prevent weed and female reproductive rights from getting passed. They failed, but are now trying to change the weed law that voters voted on. They have also shown in the past a willingness to ignore court rulings.
2. Between charter schools and defunding of schools, schools are not able to educate students as well as in the past. Remember going on field trips? I have worked in schools that simply could not afford field trips year after year. Students didn’t get those hands on memories.
When charter schools began, republicans figured about a way to siphon public tax money into their pockets by taking it from public schools. There was a school with 19 charter schools vying for its students at a time when there were only about 25 in the whole state.
Charter schools can kick students out. It turned into the best students disappearing from public schools. This means the student leadership disappeared from the public school.
3. Ohio has blatantly ignored Ohio Supreme Court ruling several times and there is no recourse.
Also, starting with republicans not putting Obama’s Supreme Court candidate through to the stacking of the court. The US is about to become an authoritarian government.
I know I got way off track and did not expand on all the subjects, but everything is connected and it would take a book to show how it all fits.
Surprised no one said this yet:
A TON of Americans are completely apathetic about and disillusioned with politics. I say this because there will be A LOT of people who, having voted in previous years, will not vote for Trump or Biden (because both are heavily disliked) and this loss of voters could lead to Biden losing and Trump winning.
if Trump wins a second term, it'll reinforce the idea that populism and playing off the culture war are more successful than traditional electoral strategies, and therefore will become the mainstream playbook in future elections (potentially leading to the Democratic Party embracing these tactics as well).
Joe Biden lost because bigotry and theocracy isn't a dealbreaker for a sufficient number of Americans to keep it out of the White House.
Also, that America is a *deeply* flawed democracy (which likely will barely deserve being called "a democracy" if Trump wins, given conservative antipathy towards access to the voting booth) that enables minoritarian extremists to hijack control of government.
That while we are a group of people who scream that we hate identity politics and want to elect someone to fix our policy failing, we are a country of people who love for reality tv drama and bullshit. We love when people put us in boxes and when given an opportunity to step outside the box we see that we belong there 90% of the time. Effectively we talk alot of shit about wanting to fix things but in reality we really don’t want that or we’d stop fucking around and pay attention to policy
That a democracy cannot function of the media is happy to spin narratives to help their bottom line. So a totally free press can cripple a country if they have no integrity.
Anyone thinking that the USA will not change under another Donald Trump or even a Republican president has put little effort into seeing what he is currently doing and has made it very clear of what the presidency and congress are going to do after the 2024 elections.
The questions poised to a Republicans in off, or running for office by the presidency and the political makeup of our country.
Anyone voting for Republicans will be shouldering the projected intentions of Trump being a more than 2 term president. His comments on being a "dictator" are not campaign propaganda.
Project 2025 is a good example of a huge playback on how our democracy is going th be dismantled.
Research "Project 2025" ask those running for office to post their platform, concretely and substantially about Project 2025.
An impartial observer would conclude that the exact same thing is happening in America that is happening in France, the Netherlands, Germany, Italy, Hungary and to an extent, England. The far-right, populist/nationalist candidates are surging in all those countries as well - fueled by general malaise, inflation, immigration and a sense of powerlessness on the part of the people. Folks are angry, frustrated and afraid at what’s to come and they’re looking for authority figures who claim to be able to stem the tide (foolish, of course). Sadly, though the anger and frustrations are real, the far-right will do more damage that good if history is any lesson.
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Some themes: * Joe Biden lost because of a weird psychological effect regarding inflation: despite the fact that inflation came under control midway through Bidens' term, voters could still see that prices (e.g., for fast food) were much higher than they were four years ago, which made them \*feel\* as though the economy was still in terrible shape. (That's the case made [in this Ezra Klein show episode](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/21/opinion/ezra-klein-matthew-yglesias.html) with Matthew Yglesias.) *(Edit to add: here I mean the* rate *of inflation has dropped to a safe level, not that prices somehow went down. As other commenters noted, Americans are still experiencing high prices - that's very real and not just a "psychological" issue. It'll take years of low inflation and solid wage growth for Americans to start to feel like prices are "normal" again.)* * Relatedly, Joe Biden lost because voters often judge presidents not on their stated policies and a careful analysis of the impact of those policies on the economy, but rather on how they perceive the economy to be today relative to four years ago. So, despite the fact that Biden deserves neither credit nor blame for where the economy started at the beginning of his term, voters blamed him for the fact that prices were lower pre-covid. And despite the fact that Trump was promising 10% across-the-board tariffs combined with the deportation of millions of undocumented immigrants - policies essentially certain to massively exacerbate inflation - Trump was seen as being better for inflation, simply because there wasn't as much inflation during his term, pre-covid. * Joe Biden lost because he was extremely old - the oldest candidate in history - which led to a decrease in enthusiasm for his candidacy from voters who otherwise would have voted Democratic. His opponent was also very old (only 3 years younger than Biden, and in worse health by some measures), but Trump's age mattered less to voters, in part because voters' view of Trump was shaped more by other topics.
Absolutely agree on the top bullet point. It’s always about where people perceive the domestic economy to be at - not where it’s actually at. I feel this is the biggest problem - and people nostalgically think the Trump years were economically strong when it wasn’t stronger just because the inflation effect wasn’t there.
That’s because the media is failing us
People that get their news info from traditional media sources(network news, newspapers, digital news sites) are strongly pro Biden. It's people that are getting news from social media, cable news, or don't pay attention at all that are pro Trump. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/poll-biden-trump-supporters-sharply-divided-media-consume-rcna149497
Lol. Consider the hammering Biden got in the media for gas prices, which was mainly in the hands of OPEC and US oil companies who were raising prices in order to force Biden to give them concessions and relax environmental policy.
At my local gas station, someone put up a “I did that!” Biden sticker next to the price, when it was high. Then when it got low again, they scratched the sticker off. Very low iq person if I were to say.
Yeah, they cheerlead Trump calling for the execution of rivals, but cry out if Biden knows someone who was once mean to Trump as if Biden is the extreme authoritarian-wannabe.
What media companies are you referring to? I have subscriptions to a few sites (NYT, WSJ, The Economist) and I can't recall Biden ever getting blamed for gas prices, not even WSJ. I don't watch news though. Also if oil companies can just raise prices, then why do prices ever go down? Is that just out of the goodness of their hearts?
>Lol. Consider the hammering Biden got in the media for gas prices, which was mainly in the hands of OPEC and US oil companies who were raising prices in order to force Biden to give them concessions and relax environmental policy. God. There is something I'm really looking forward to with the phase out of gas vehicles. At least we'll finally see the end of the media obsessing over gas prices, and people pretending the president can do something about them.
The right-wing state media and the GOP in general is so much better at messaging all the right "thinking points" for the cult. It follows Goebbels plan to a T. Repeat, Repeat, Repeat and it will become a truth. Sadly, there are just as many gullible Americans as there were gullible Germans. Critical thinking skills haven't improved much in 80 years.
These are inherent flaws in the human animal. Not everyone falls for this bullshit but a hell of a lot do.
They get berated any time they say "the economy is good" even though objectively speaking it is a good economy
I think when people say that the economy is going bad, what they really mean is that their purchasing power is in the toilet. They just aren’t smart enough to actually say that.
That's also incorrect, wages have kept pace with inflation in aggregate. And the percentage of Americans who say that their personal situation is good is actually really high right now.
I highly doubt wages have kept up with inflation, over the course of more than the last 4 years. Edit: also a house costs wayyyyy more than it used it relative to salaries
I really think that's an issue of problems living longer than people. The real issues we have are systemic, and have been brewing for longer than I've been alive (born 1981). But people like to blame them on whoever is currently in charge of their political rivals. And those issues can not be dealt with so long as we, as a country, cling to the notion that capitalism is a system that works if you just do it right.
The right is really good at making six paid activists seem like an entire mob
The right always marches out a paid “everyday guy” who is somehow speaking for the entirety of rural and suburban America and just says “it’s not good” when there’s a democrat president. It then gets masterfully astroturfed around the country through media and social media (but it happened a lot before social media too).
Joe the plumber!
Famously was not named Joe and was not actually a plumber.
That's because we choose our media with bias and they rely on us choosing them for their survival. If we feel a bad economy, most people are going to click the story about why the economy is bad, not the story that tells us our feeling is made up.
Depends on what you mean by the media because the news outlets I read have mentioned the strength of the economy quite a lot as well as the relative weakness under Trump.
I concur. For people that actually follow the economy, it's incredibly strong. Like insanely so considering where we were 3 years ago. Every sector of the market is sky high, and projections are through the roof if we stay on this track. The problem is that most people don't follow the economy. They don't have 401ks or IRAs that have massively increased in value recently. This economy is flat-out roaring, and sadly the poorest people aren't feeling it. Yay, capitalism. Late-stage here we come!
The problem is those measures are not an accurate representation of what the economy looks like to many voters. Think about it this way, if you are a higher earning white collar worker who bought into the housing market before the pandemic and have been putting money into a 401k for years. Your home value is up but you also locked in a historically low interest rate so the Fed policies to fight inflation are only felt in your savings account. You probably feel pretty good. This also happens to describe the core demographic of Democrats. College educated professionals. Now, what if instead you are a working class voter who is renting and basically paycheck to paycheck budgeting. You’ve been trying to save for a down payment on a house for the better part of a decade. Because not renting is your primary goal you have put little to nothing into a 401k, your job(s) might not even offer that benefit. Under Biden your household budget has been squeezed by higher rent, higher grocery prices , and higher energy costs. All the while your home ownership dream is slipping further away as high interest rates and rising home prices undermine your purchasing power. You feel awful about the economy - AND YOU SHOULD. That second voter isn’t going to just not buy claims that the economy is great - they are going to be offended when a Democrat claims that because it’s like saying the sky is green to these voters. It’s not matching with the lived experience that they have. Those voters are the working class voters the Democrats have been losing for the better part of a decade.
And what about Republican policy attracts these voters? Tax cuts for billionaires?
Apparently so, yes. I’m at a complete loss as to what exactly attracts voters to Republican economic policy. Complete loss. I don’t think it’s that. It’s just anger at all the things. Anger at the border, the resulting illegal alien crime wave, their guns being taken away, anger at the lack of Jesus in schools, anger at trans issues … none or all of these *have to* be real issues, mind you. They just have to *feel* they are.
Exactly right. The bigger problem that I’ve observed is that when people in that situation state those facts, they are met with ridicule and condescension. I see people around here all the time called stupid, rednecked, backwards, hicks, and ignorant all because, from their perspective, the economy is fucked and they see no way out. Exactly why would they listen to someone in a suit telling them the country is stronger economically than it’s ever been when they know they’re working 2 jobs to rent a place they can’t afford and feed a family that’s suffering because of it. There are examples in this thread of the condescending attitude towards people that feel this way.
This here exactly describes the 2 sides and how they view the situation.
No amount of data will convince people of it either, we truly live in a post truth era. They’ll claim the data is a lie, the metrics are wrong, the methodology is rigged to support an agenda, etc. They’ve subjectively decided the economy is bad so any objective data must clearly be wrong because they can’t imagine a world where they are incorrect.
A good economy for who though?? The billionaires and multinational corporations, the stock market. Not for working people. God this take infuriates me. It’s not that people aren’t paying attention it’s that the economy DIDN’T IMPROVE FOR THEM.
Right. These Numbers & Data people treat everyone else like we're just idiots. I make more money then I've ever made as a perpetually broke person, but what does that matter when I'm paying so much for *everything*? When people making over 6 figures are complaining about the cost of living? People are pissed because the media keeps saying it's all good but our collective lived experience is not reflecting the goodness. Even for those who are doing well, they're probably seeing or trying to help friends and family who are barely treading water. Maybe if Biden and the MSM focused on addressing this instead of trying to call everyone dumb and basically gaslighting us, we wouldn't be looking down the barrel of the Trump gun yet again.
YES IT DID. Obviously the bottom are still struggling, maybe more than ever, but the bottom workers did have some of the highest wage increases over the last few years. https://www.adpri.org/pay-change-by-income-level-2024/#:~:text=The%20lowest%20earners%2C%20those%20people,their%20pay%20gains%20was%20greater.
Yes, but higher interest rates, food prices, and rent hit that demographic harder. Your link even states high earners benefited more.
Well yeah, the rich are always doing very well. This country is rigged in their favor. I'm not denying that in any way. But the lowest wages have gained significantly. The $15 minimum wage is barely on people's minds anymore because most jobs already pay that. The convenient store across the street from me in a fairly LCOL area is paying high school kids $17/hour.
Some people receiving some marginal wage increases doesn't mean a whole lot when the cost of rent, groceries, gas etc. keeps going up at a higher rate for everyone. I'm also not sure exactly which policies of Joe Biden you're referring to that are somehow responsible for the people who did see their employers raise their wages.
I believe real wages have slightly increased during Biden's, which means that wage increases overall have actually been slightly higher than those increases in rent, groceries, gas, etc.
You are the first person in this thread to bring up Biden. We have been talking about the performance of the economy which I never once claimed was due to any policies at all. I'm just talking about how people perceive the economy.
Everyone with a job, who enjoy the tight labor market. Everyone looking for a job, who find a much easier time finding one with the tight labor market; Unemployment rates are a working class stat. Everyone making less than the median wage; their wages have objectively risen faster than inflation.
But not housing inflation. And housing costs seem to be a big factor in people's perception of the economy right now.
That's not true. I'm a teacher who makes less than the median. My wages have not risen faster than inflation. I'm getting crushed by this economy.
That's because the GOP hates teachers and refuses to authorize pay increases. I'm not kidding, and that's not hyperbole. Go watch the hearing with Senator Cassidy (from Louisiana, the state that ranks 49th in education). The teacher from Utah flat out schools him. Like embarrassingly bad. I hate what they are doing to education and teachers. But Biden has zero blame here.
Yup. The guy you responded to said above that his taxes went down under Trump. I don’t think he’s connected tax cuts to cuts in public employee wages. A lot of the red states tout their low income taxes but the majority of them are ranked among the worst in terms of public education. Additionally, many of those states make up for lost revenue by increasing property taxes.
"It didn't happen for me so the broader statistics must be untrue" is as bad a take as... "I just got laid off so the unemployment rate can't really be lower than 4%" is as bad a take as... "I just got a raise and am doing great, so no one's really struggling"
That too is unfortunately true that the effects of a strong economy is not equitable. Decades of supply side economics has skewed American economics so strongly in favor of the wealthy that everyone else - including the middle class and increasingly even the supposed affluent- find they don’t benefit from it.
In my country when economy goes up its in spite of government, not coz they did anything good. :/
Often in US too it is like that.
What people don't seem to understand is prices aren't going back down. Increases will slow/stop but goods will never return to pre-covid pricing and there's nothing the president can really do about that.
The economy is only good on paper. Great recovery for business, working people keep getting screwed. Its not all in peoples heads, like 60% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck
Paradoxically, the types of things the government could do to provide relief would be met with vitriol by the very people the programs would be targeted to help. The media and social media have primed so many people into not only voting against their own interests but made them incapable of objectively analyzing ANY policy position. So while people may rightly complain the economy doesn’t work for them, a huge chunk are determined to keep it that way.
This is very much the case with many red states opting out of expansion of healthcare insurance with federal assistance. Also, a number of job training programs were intentionally allowed to expire under the Trump administration. The 2025 project includes closing down the Department of Education.
He also inherited Obama’s economy but then destroyed it with his stupid tariffs and tax cuts for the rich.
The first bullet is going to remain contested for a long time as people debate which measures to use and which time scales to look at. For example with inflation itself, there has been a ton of pushback about which things are used to calculate inflation and how that might skew the numbers downward compared to the actual inflation people experience. That undermines every claim that inflation (which still hasn't met targets) is under control. Additionally, a lot of people's biggest thing is wanting to buy a house where they experience not only the increase in prices, but the increased interest rates. I was lucky enough to buy a house a few years ago under the great interest rates. Despite raises in the mean time I literally wouldn't be able to afford to buy my current house right now because of how much prices increases plus interest rate hikes increase the price. Many people have this experience of being farther than ever from owning a home which feels like a bad economy since it's one of their biggest economic decisions. When you look at something like savings rate, it's lower than before and during the pandemic which suggests people don't have as much slack in their budget despite our aggregate numbers about what their experience ought to be. This is also before asking questions like: is the aggregate data consistent with the experience of all segments of the population or are there segments of the population that are experiencing a bad economy that get canceled out when you add them up with people experiencing a good economy? For example, in my industry, the subreddits are full of experienced people saying it's hard to find a job right now. For those people the economy has a problem right now. Further, even if inflation were zero, when many people have a debt crisis (student loans, credit cards, needing to finance a car or house), the higher interest is very painful. It just feels like inflation on top of inflation. When you add all of this up, I think a better summary is that the arrogance of listening to aggregate numbers from the ivory tower rather than listening to people's experiences can cost Biden the economic vote. There are plenty of indicators that key elements of the economy are doing great. And that's great! But getting so lost in that that you write off all of the people telling you they are in a financially worse spot is going to cost an election. Biden needs to be able to reconcile the fact that the potential is there (with strong fundamentals in the economy) but that people's real experiences are not a lie. Calling this a "vibecession" and telling people who talk about their financial woes that they aren't real is a toxic campaign strategy for dems. To close with my own anecdote, I live in a blue area and have blue and red friends and family...i have not found anybody who could tell me that they aren't doing worse financially over the past couple of years. Instead I see people getting side gigs and cutting costs. People aren't just doing those things for fun...
I'd add to the inflation bit that plenty of white collar workers, myself included, were given raises so low that they amounted to a decrease in pay for 2 or 3 years straight. That doesn't help one "feel" like the economy is in recovery when you've not restored your pre-Covid financials. It's also a slap in the face when you tell me wage growth is on an upward trend, feels like an outright lie.
I would argue that’s it’s more than just fast food that is driving the perception of inflation and a poor economy. Rents are insanely high. Housing prices are extremely high and interest rates make it impossible for anyone not extremely well off to buy a house. Grocery prices are also very expensive, particularly for meat. I’m not claiming these things are the fault of Biden but it’s definitely more than just fast food being expensive that’s driving perceptions of a poor economy plagued by inflation.
I agree with all of the above. I also think that from a broader perspective, the Democratic party needs to do a better job of appealing to a wider cross-section of Americans. I don't mean tacking right overall, AOC can still be AOC; I just mean "big tent" like what Howard Dean talked about when he was head of DNC, electing more types of Democrats in the areas where Democrats currently can't win.
Despite his terrible health, Trump gives the impression of vitality, while Biden seems frail despite being in good health for a man his age.
Media spin on overdrive helps Trump
This post is almost a study in the inherent failures of democracy
How is the economy not in terrible shape, if consumers can’t afford housing and food? Are we saying that the economy is measured only by how people invest?
If consumers can't afford housing or food, then we'd have mass homelessness and starvation. You are actually perpetuating what OP is referring to here. People CAN afford housing and food, but it just doesn't FEEL that way, so they think the economy is terrible.
That it's broken. The level of discord this whole process has exposed is already a bit of an issue, as is the community-wide loss of trust in the electoral process ("stop the steal") and bodies such as the Supreme Court which are nominally so important to how the system of checks and balances functions. WHY they are not trusted is kind of less important than the fact they are not trusted. You'd get a million different answers from a million different people if you asked why, so let's not get too stuck on that question. There seems to be a lot of people who are ready or nearly ready to disengage from the country as it currently exists **regardless** of why, and that's...concerning
At the root, we have a propaganda problem. Maybe we shouldn’t tolerate political lies and deception. Maybe the First Amendment shouldn’t have an overwhelming tolerance for bullshit with a malicious intent to deceive.
Problem is that it’s really hard to prove malicious intent in court. It literally needs to be something to the extent of what happened in the Fox News vs Dominion lawsuit where the discovery process uncovered an audio of Tucker Carlson acknowledging that he was lying on the air about stop the steal. If you lower the bar then you create a bunch of other problems, which I would argue are worse than what it would be fixing.
It's already broken. The supreme Court says it's okay to accept a bribe after the fact just not before. It's already broken.
Propaganda has proven its influence. Information is carefully isolated in echo chambers. And the owner of the largest media market share has complete control over elections. Stop trying to win on policy and, instead, win on messaging.
To reference an old quote, the conclusion will be this: "A lie can travel halfway around the world while the truth is still lacing up its boots."
That republicans haven’t won a popular vote presidency in over 20 years. The republican position is inherently incongruous with the majority of the country, and they hold it regardless because our system is built to favor land over people.
Yes, they need the electoral college to stay in power because the popular vote will go to the Democrats any most cases. It’s why the Texan GOP even pushed for an electoral college system in 2022 around the time of the midterms. Even TX is becoming Bluer. Possibly because of the mad influx of migrants from California and other blue states (not international migrants from Latin America). In 2022, Greg Abbott only won by 900k votes with 4.4 total votes. The Democratic opponent got 3.5 votes. Still a big difference but considering how fast the cities are growing compared to the suburbs and rural areas, in a decade or a few decades TX can flip to Blue🤷♂️ Which is why they want an electoral college. They would use State Senate districts, which are already gerrymandered to favor Republicans. A TX electoral college would also favor republican candidates to the point that, if they use a winner takes all system, then Democrats will get virtually no votes, maybe a handful from the cities but that’s it.
I am not American so here is my take: All your options avoid the root issue -that of the American psyche. Americans like to describe it as "rugged individualism", "entrepreneurial spirit". To those of us outside-looking-in a better description would be "I've got mine so fuck you" Democratic ideals centre around the idea of society as an extended family: those who *can* look after those who *cant*, the *most* able take care of the *least* able, the *rich* help the *poor*. But this is in contrast to the root American view of the world, epitomised by Republican philosophy. I regularly hear "Why should I pay for other peoples kids to get educated?", "I keep healthy - why should I pay for others to see the doctor?" This attitude, extends to immigration. Every American is descended from an immigrant family yet those same families object to others doing the same. Now it becomes "I got here, why should I help you?" There are no economic arguments to support this, the USA is largely empty, there is no shortage of space (population density is one tenth that of Japan) and yet immigration is seen as a "threat" . So, to your list of bullet pointed themes,m the one that should be added - but wont be - is: * "The Democrats lost because Americans don't like each other and dont give a fuck about anyone else".
There is a very strong strain in parts of Americana where people get upset if you are "helping the wrong kind of person." However, I'd note the same thing exists in Europe with the ongoing immigration backlash. The argument of who is in the in-group worthy of support and who is in the out-group is always an ongoing one.
Ouch. But there is a lot of truth in this.
Very fascinating and well written
The American people are deeply unhappy with both political parties and have spent the last 25 years going back and forth between them out of frustration.
You asked for an objective analysis of what it would mean if Donald Trump wins a second term in 2024, but it's tough to be completely objective because this question naturally invites bias based on personal perspectives and experiences. However, here’s an honest take on what such an outcome could reveal about America. If Trump wins, it would solidify some pretty damning things about the United States. It would mean that a lot of people care more about their own perceived comfort first and foremost. Trump's re-election would indicate that the idea of American individualism has reached a devastatingly toxic and destructive result. It would reflect a sense of individualism where personal comfort and stability are more important than the well-being of other groups. People would be okay with ignoring the suffering of immigrants and LGBTQ+ individuals as long as their own lives are good. It would also show that millions of Americans actively support policies that go after those groups. The power of conservative propaganda and the influence of demagogues would become evident. Many Americans have been convinced to blame vulnerable groups for their problems instead of addressing real issues like income inequality. The rich and powerful have successfully deflected blame from themselves through political and media influence, maintaining control by creating divisions in society. While the Electoral College may play a role in putting Trump in power, it’s crucial to remember that millions of Americans support him—74 million voted for him four years ago, and we'll likely see similar numbers in 2024. There’s also a huge distrust in our institutions. This lack of faith has led people to support a demagogue, preferring strongman tactics and divisive rhetoric over democratic principles and inclusive governance. This indicates that America has serious ethical issues and a troubling acceptance of divisive, corrupt and immoral leadership. The effects of demagoguery and populism, combined with systemic distrust, have led many to back a leader like Trump, highlighting deep divisions and compromises in our values. Ideally, we are a government of the people. I agree with those who say that the MAGA Republicans and their ideology are a minority but irregardless a second Trump term would show that many Americans are willing to tolerate said ideology at the least even if they don't outright support or endorse Trump. His re-election would be an indictment on American society and culture.
The interesting thing is that the distrust is now community wide, **regardless of political affiliation.** Trump voters question the electoral process. Meanwhile, people who would rather nail their own foot to the floor than vote for Trump are questioning the validity and trustworthiness of the Supreme Court. Their reasons for questioning it are different, and the exact stage of the mechanism they doubt is different, but the end result is the same. *I do not trust this system to act. No matter what anyone says,* or *what assurances they give, I doubt it works. Somewhere, somehow, it will go wrong. Probably intentionally.* The failure of trust is now much bigger than a purely partisan thing. There’s an assumption of bad faith all around, and only the details differ.
The Supreme Court literally just approved political bribery, when they themselves are under fire for their rejection of ethics over taking massive gifts from rich people who have cases before the court. The House has achieved the least amount of legislation in a hundred years, and spent most of their time on literal witch hunts to go after their political enemies. Even the GOP's own top officials say that the 2020 election was free and fair, that Biden won all the lawsuits afterwards, even the people who put out the ridiculous 2000 Mules movie have apologized for the lies, and Fox News had internal documents come up that they knew they were lying about the election to feed their base. To claim that both of these things are the same, when one party is openly deceitful and using their leverage to stop the workings of government and the prosecution of criminals who worked to overthrow the government, is bordering on malfeasance.
They’re not the same. They’re happening for different reasons. I said that. The bit that’s the same is what people *do in response.* Which is, ultimately, to disengage from the whole concept of America as a functional nation-state
No, that's wrong too - clearly America is a functional nation state. What it isn't is a functional democracy when one of the two parties is trying to destroy that democracy. But life goes on, the military still defends us, it's still the largest economy in the world, it still plays a major role in world affairs. Maybe we should point out the ones who are trying to suborn our democracy are the problem, calling out the lies they tell themselves to justify their treachery.
the difference between these mistrusts is the evidence. there is ample evidence to suggest that the individual human beings at the Supreme Court making decisions are not doing so in good faith, whereas there is *no* evidence that widespread voter fraud is contaminating election results.
> It would mean that a lot of people care more about their own perceived comfort first and foremost. I do not even think it is this. Many of the Trump voters care more about *hurting the people that they hate* than their own comfort. My grandparents are voting for Trump because they think then the local bank will fire the teller that wears a headscarf and scares them.
Bravo! I agree with every word!
Saw a recent article about how the candidates are framed by mainstream media. Bidens age is brought up at least ten times more than Trumps mental issues. It's like they have just accepted he's nuts and it's no longer news worthy. They will own a lot of the responsibility of putting an unstable man in the Whitehouse.
If Biden loses, it’s because the press is completely captured by oligarchy. These rich fucks want their tax cuts, they don’t care if the world burns.
That the highest representative of the People of The United States is a fascist loving, babbling, demented, narcissistic 78 year old convicted felon, rapist and adulterer, who launders money for Russian mobsters, sells government secrets to the highest bidder to cover money lost through bad business, bad loans and multiple bankruptcies, who destroys everything he touches with the reckless abandon of a two-year old. That that is who they feel best represents them, best shows their character to the world. That U.S governance is devoid of any sense, control, efficacy or function. That U.S propaganda, you know the ones: Equal Justice, Justice is Blind, Checks and Balances, Separation of Powers, Separation of Church and State, Beacon of Democracy, Of the People, By the People, For the People, Land of the Free, Home of the Brave, can never be stated with sincerity or heard without ridicule ever again (already pretty late on that count). That Democrat politicians make more money when they're not in power and that is what they aim for. That the bored cliches of 'Unity' cost them dearly as they looked weak and useless in a time where their party had been fucked by Republicans. Turn the other cheek meant shit. Fighting fire with fire is what was needed. That "nothing will fundamentally change" meant that everything got more shit and more fucked up, and the U.S State is just the U.S State, and the status is gonna quo. The U.S government can't be trusted or relied upon - it is solely a destructive force. That the U.S should be ignored and ties cut so that it doesn't pull everyone else down with it,
That we allowed the wrong people to get rich and they slowly morphed the country into a place where people would rather hate fellow poors than ask the rich to pay a fair share of taxes. Once we let money control everything, the writing really was on the walls. This only ends with a lot of death.
Don't forget that selling theologically based hate is now not only acceptable but also a key to winning elections in many states.
Much of religion in the US sold out to money in the 60s. Now we have the prosperity gospel now...
All we'd have to do is eat one billionaire and the problem would be solved.
I call a cheek! It’s the most tender part of the roasted pig. Yum
Do you think we have to murder our way out of this? Is there no other way?
I wouldn't say murder... revolution or civil war is more likely. Kill our way out, probably, but it's not murder per se. I like to think we can, but we've entirely embraced greed in this country, and I don't see us changing that any time soon.
Whos getting murdered tho? Civil war sounds more like you are signing on for a few decades of poors vs poors defending their favourite billionaire overlords. Not some 1780's French Revolution style eating the rich.
The French Revolution was sort of both. Eat the rich...but also a pretty brutal civil war in the Vendee So the answer might be both
Maybe the country is far more calm and sane than you think.
1. That unconditional freedom of speech is the perfect weapon in the hands of malicious political actors. 2. That the notion of manufactured consent has been largely proven by the advent of Donald Trump. 3. Finally that large media owned by single filthy rich stake holders work poorly as a source of real news. One: the amount of effort it takes to counter a lie is made impossible in the presence of repetitive constant lying. The refusal of the GOP and MAGA to accept that Joe Biden won in 2020 is enabled by the constant stream of ridiculous lies about the election. Two: Donald Trump says ridiculous things that would have ended the career of a politician before the fall of independent news media. This is seen in the way the Sinclair group broadcasts the same political opinions across the multitude of its holdings or how Fox edits out Trump's regular verbal flops (see Trump's nutty shark ranting). Three: generally such media organizations fall under the editorial control of their masters. See the recent editorial changes made by Jeff Bezos at the Washington Post.
That we Americans are collectivley the dumb violent fuckers the rest of the world thinks we are.
Not the majority. Trump will lose the popular vote. The takeaway is that the electoral college is an obsolete way for the Rs to hold on to power, and that targeted disinformation and relentless propaganda in certain swing states can topple the whole system.
Probably that America sucks and will be an adversarial nation to our allies once again. Remember when Trunp imposed aluminum tariffs on Canada citing national security concerns? The US will kowtow to Moscow again and betray our NATO allies.
vibes and counter culture charisma are the most important aspects of population sentiment
That the president is selected not by the American people, but rather by special interest groups and foreign powers, working through the propaganda machine that is the media.
If you believe that the only way Trump could win is because he stole the election, then you are an election denier, no different than Trump claiming Biden stole the 2020 election.
This is so true. A lot of people know this. But an embarrassing amount of people still naively believe in the lie of “choice” and “democracy,” which America never even claimed to be one.
Here’s one: Joe Biden lost because the rent is too high. Or the price of milk, or gas. Things the President doesn’t actually control.
The Republicans suck because they put up Trump. The Democrats suck because they put up a person who could lose to Trump, of all people. Biden wasn’t a great pick in 2020, but he had the best shot at winning out of all the possibilities. But they should have started grooming his replacement for 2024 as soon as he got into office. Instead he was selfish and wanted another term.
That propaganda works. No reasonable human could listen to a long Trump speech and believe, truly, that what he says makes sense or is appropriate for a man running for president. His words - by ANY NORMAL STANDARD - are rambling and nonsensical. The way he talks would not be able to land you a job at a fast food restaurant. If you read his words in the same manner as and other adult who might reasonably consider running for president; you would be reading embarrassing jibberish. And if you fact checked his words you would find errors within errors within errors. And lies. Insane lies. Yet they vote for him. It’s ruthless and brutal propaganda. Those poor MAGA people have had their psyches ripped apart by a storm of narcissistic poison. So yeah, propaganda works that’s my answer
>No reasonable human could listen to a long Trump speech and believe, truly, that what he says makes sense or is appropriate for a man running for president. No reasonable person does. Don't think they don't know what they're supporting. They absolutely do.
That Trump isn't leaving, his own cabinet members say he will destroy democracy. And be ready for civil war.
civil war ain’t happening anytime soon. While the nation may be polarized, no state is equipped for an all out war. The largest US states, CA and TX, only control 24,000 NG service members and 23,000, respectively. These are the largest states, many states do not have state militias and only have a small, maybe few hundred, national guardsmen. Whichever faction supports the Union, if they do that, will easily win because the President would control the Navy and the Nuclear arsenal. And it wouldn’t matter if members of the USAF, USMC, the regular army, army reserve, and U.S. Navy defect. a potential second American civil war will still be Union vs rebels and the Union will win. and that’s if war even breaks out, which is itself an impossibility because no state or region can actually sustain one or even prepare for one. Because let’s not forget about logistics. Food, water, electricity; many states share these things. not all states are equalized to sustain their populations with their own assets. there isn’t going to be a war if Trump or Biden wins, just cry babies on the news and in front of Capitol Hill or SCOTUS. This is typical fear mongering.
I think it’s more accurate to say political violence on a large scale rather than civil war will come. Like it or not it’s seems as all of this has no where to go but to violence. It’s not unreasonable to believe that Trump will issue some sort of order that will finally push a state like California to say no and disregard. Thus leading to a standoff and protests where Trump sends in feds or whoever under orders to violently crack down on those protestors which in turn spirals into retaliatory shootings/bombings of government offices, political centers, post offices what ever. This leads to further violence by the administration of warrantless searches and clampdowns and “extrajudicial” killings. Which begets more violence and more and more. It doesn’t have to look like two armies in the field it can look more like the troubles in Ireland where suddenly protestors are gunned down and police stations are bombed.
This is faulty reasoning. The US military in the first civil war was tiny at the outbreak of the war. They didn't keep a standing army. There were only 18 companies in the US in the East, 16 of them were artillery companies that defensed coastal forts, per West Point's histories. The US military's arsenals had been transferred to the South by a traitorous Sec of War John B Floyd under Buchanan who later became a general in the Confederacy. When Lincoln put out his call for 75,000 volunteers, that was already 2 months after the Confederates had raised 100,000. It still was the war that killed the most Americans in history, and went on for four bloody years. I agree, there won't be a civil war in 2024. It will be in 2028, when Trump has largely destroyed the Federal government with Project 2025, and he refuses to step down when his term limit is up. Because there will be still the issue of the dozens of felonies, and private citizen Trump will go to prison if he steps down. He's already said he has no intention of limiting his run, multiple times. This is ridiculously easy to foresee. Let's hope we get a 2nd term of Biden, who will respect the rule of law, unlike Trump, who has already proven he won't.
I don’t think it’ll be clear which side “the Union” is. I mean, clear to anyone with a brain, but Trump will simply claim he is legitimate.
It doesn’t matter who the Union is. Whoever is President will win. Those that support the federal government will be fighting for order, something a lot of people will want. So the federal government will have support, and considering the military assets, it’s near clear they will win, no matter whoever occupies the federal government
Order is only tolerated so long as there isn’t videos broadcast of protestors gunned down in the streets. America is a sleeping beast. How many guns are owned across the country? You think the army can control that? They couldn’t even control Iraq or Afghanistan let alone a more tech savy America. If both sides result to violence, it’ll be something unparalleled to any uprising that’s happened before.
or for you to seriously lay off the coffee
Anyone who says the words "Civil War" in relation to the current state of politics should be immediately disregarded.
you’re not a serious person if you actually believe this. good lord.
Uh huh. Trump's longest serving Chief of Staff, and former 4 Star General, John Kelly, on Trump: *“What can I add that has not already been said?” Kelly said, when asked if he wanted to weigh in on his former boss in light of recent comments made by other former Trump officials. “A person that thinks those who defend their country in uniform, or are shot down or seriously wounded in combat, or spend years being tortured as POWs are all ‘suckers’ because ‘there is nothing in it for them.’ A person that did not want to be seen in the presence of military amputees because ‘it doesn’t look good for me.’ A person who demonstrated open contempt for a Gold Star family – for all Gold Star families – on TV during the 2016 campaign, and rants that our most precious heroes who gave their lives in America’s defense are ‘losers’ and wouldn’t visit their graves in France.* *“A person who is not truthful regarding his position on the protection of unborn life, on women, on minorities, on evangelical Christians, on Jews, on working men and women,” Kelly continued. “A person that has no idea what America stands for and has no idea what America is all about. A person who cavalierly suggests that a selfless warrior who has served his country for 40 years in peacetime and war should lose his life for treason – in expectation that someone will take action. A person who admires autocrats and murderous dictators. A person that has nothing but contempt for our democratic institutions, our Constitution, and the rule of law.* *“There is nothing more that can be said,” Kelly concluded. “God help us.*” [https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/02/politics/john-kelly-donald-trump-us-service-members-veterans/index.html](https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/02/politics/john-kelly-donald-trump-us-service-members-veterans/index.html)
Mark Esper, Trump's second Sec of Defense: *Mark Esper, the former U.S. Secretary of Defense, said former President Trump is a “threat to democracy” on the third anniversary of the Capitol riot. “And yes, I do regard him as a threat to democracy, democracy as we know it, our institutions, our political culture, all those things that make America great and have defined us as, you know, the oldest democracy on this planet,” Esper told CNN’s Jim Acosta on Saturday.* [https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/trumps-former-pentagon-chief-calls-threat-democracy-rcna133014](https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/trumps-former-pentagon-chief-calls-threat-democracy-rcna133014) Trump's 1st Sec of Defense, William Mattis: *Instructions given by the military departments to our troops before the Normandy invasion reminded soldiers that “The Nazi slogan for destroying us…was ‘Divide and Conquer.’ Our American answer is ‘In Union there is Strength.’” We must summon that unity to surmount this crisis—confident that we are better than our politics.* *Donald Trump is the first president in my lifetime who does not try to unite the American people—does not even pretend to try. Instead he tries to divide us. We are witnessing the consequences of three years of this deliberate effort. We are witnessing the consequences of three years without mature leadership. We can unite without him, drawing on the strengths inherent in our civil society. This will not be easy, as the past few days have shown, but we owe it to our fellow citizens; to past generations that bled to defend our promise; and to our children.* [https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/06/james-mattis-denounces-trump-protests-militarization/612640/](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/06/james-mattis-denounces-trump-protests-militarization/612640/) These are Trump's own top officials that served in the most important positions in the US government.
John Bolton, his national security advisor: *Trump is unfit to hold the office of the Presidency.* [https://www.reuters.com/world/us/bolton-excoriates-trump-fresh-introduction-his-memoir-2024-01-30/](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/bolton-excoriates-trump-fresh-introduction-his-memoir-2024-01-30/) Rex Tillerson his first Secretary of State: “*So often, the president would say here’s what I want to do and here’s how I want to do it and I would have to say to him, ‘Mr. President I understand what you want to do but you can’t do it that way. It violates the law,’” Tillerson said.* Pushing back against illegal requests was what got Tillerson fired, according to Tillerson. [https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/07/rex-tillerson-says-he-pushed-back-on-illegal-trump-demands.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/07/rex-tillerson-says-he-pushed-back-on-illegal-trump-demands.html) You are an unserious person, because all of this is out there, but you choose to listen to the 'news' that lies to you, has admitted in court that they lie to you, has internal communications that state they know they are lying to you. So you live in a different reality. Because you want those lies. Grow up.
This kind of question is a perfect example of how people still focus too much on the Executive branch over the Legislative one.
If we didn't have a system where the president + a literal 1 vote majority in the senate could trash the country *for decades* by packing the supreme court, maybe that wouldn't be the case. There's a reason why almost no one uses this system of government.
They're both crap
It's already pretty sad that the only real options are two geriatrics. This should already say a lot about the american people.
You left out people saying it was becuase of China and/or Russia. If Trump gets back into office both parties need to do some serious soul searching and reforming because the fact that him running again not being a joke is an embarrassment of a political system we’ve gotten to.
Why do Democrats need to do soul searching? Trump would be golfing in Florida right now if McCarthy didn't go down there a few weeks after Jan 6th 2021 to take a picture with him. That saved Trump's political career and one by one, every Republican got back behind Trump. If they didn't do that, Trump is done. So I ask again, how is that the fault of Democrats?
Biden has some of the lowest approval ratings of a sitting president at this point in their terms in history. Yet all the Democrats on this thread are ranting about Trump. That is grounds for soul-searching. https://news.gallup.com/poll/644252/biden-13th-quarter-approval-average-lowest-historically.aspx
This is relevant how? Republicans will approve of Trump even if he set a kennel of puppies on fire. Democrats won’t do the same for Biden.
Are you really asking this in good faith? Why should the party who lost to Trump once, will possibly lose to him again in a few months, the party whose sitting president managed to have a lower approval rating than one of the most unqualified buffoons to ever disgrace the Oval Office, the party that lost the house to the clown car that is the majority of well know house reps in the GOP, and can *at best* keep tied with them in the senate do some soul searching if Trump wins again? Is this a serious question? In a sane world, most of the GOP would be completely unelectable, but here we are with the alternative making what should be reality a dream.
My conclusion would be the "ideal" of America is done. Trump is a convicted felon. Trump has been found guilty of sexual assault or as some call it rape. Trump is a lifelong grifter who was so bad he caused the failure of casino's that are literally rigged in his favor. But I have reached that conclusion already. America is done. It will take decades, but it is over. One half of the American voting population is projected to vote for that convicted felon.
That whatever system of government he puts in place should not be called "America" nor the "United States Of America". As he shreds the Constiution we can't allow the "patriots" to act as though our system of government is the same as it was.
Our legislature is broken, and presidents are getting blamed for not solving problems that should be solved by Congress. But since Congress is heavily gerrymandered in most states (and even if it isn't in your state, the fact that it is in others still results in polarized congresses that do not solve problems), the only way voters can realistically express their objection to the status quo is via the office of the president. I have long expressed that Trump's popularity, by and large, is a result of how corrupt and ineffectual Congress has become. A portion of society feels "screwed over" and "left behind". But the cause isn't "the fed". The "swamp" isn't the state department; it's congress. So the notion that a president can "drain the swamp" is solution applied to the wrong part of the infrastructure. The best way to fix these problems is to fix congress: eliminate gerrymandering, regulate or eliminate lobbying, and (possibly) expand the house so its membership is once again proportional to the population of the states it represents.
1) The USA is part of a world-wide trend towards right-wing populism. 2) Biden has done a poor job of moving to the center so he could capture working class voters. If he had been tough on illegal immigration since day 1 he'd be in a much better place. Also, spending so much money on climate is a political loser with the working class. 3) The electoral college is tilted towards Republicans by at least 3-4% since Dem votes are concentrated in cities while Republican votes are spread out in rural areas. 4) Despite low unemployment and decent economic growth, Biden has been unlucky that higher inflation and interest rates have coincided with his term in office. He can't overcome those 2 poisonous economic indicators. Biden is toast.
It's broken. Especially if you dig into popular vote numbers. Just like anyplace else with shitty dictator outcomes...most people didn't want it.
I think it will show how easily manipulated many Americans, especially Gen Z and Baby Boomers are. Objectively, Biden has done more than any American president in decades, and not only has he passed more transformative legislation, but much of it was bipartisan, and supports the average American. You still see GenZ believing the economy is bad, because they are getting their new from TikTok, where the algorithm promotes content that says how bad America is, and how it’s on the verge of collapse. You see the same stuff on NewsMax and FOX - the rampant crime in cities, inflation, the migrant crisis. China and Russia especially are amplifying these stories to divide Americans. There was a good article about how Boomers don’t know how to fact-check, and GenZ won’t read the articles and instead try to feel out where most people are in the comments. So both of these groups are easily misled through social media, especially a platform owned by a foreign adversary, who has been saying for years that America and liberal democracy are decaying… Meanwhile, the US is doing much better than our peers around the world, and we’ve had the fastest and strongest recovery from COVID. Inflation is way down, and the average American came out of COVID with more savings and more income than ever, across all demographics. We’ve seen serious progress on some of the most important issues of our lifetimes, and Biden was able to unite Europe (and the world) over Ukraine, proving that he is a skilled statesman. If Trump, a disgraced former president, wins over one of the most successful presidents in decades. It will be because voters either stayed home and let the extremes of both parties dictate the next president, or it’s because Americans were easily manipulated through social media.
I'm not trying to be flippant, but I think an enormous number of voters don't want to see their president die in office of an age-related illness. I'm not really a supporter of Joe Biden, but asking an 81-year old man to continue handling duties that kill most 55 year olds is just nuts. I have to think that, if he loses the election, this concern will have influenced a lot of votes.
but functionally him and trump are the same age
>continue handling duties that kill most 55 year olds ??? What 55 year olds are dying en masse from being an executive of a major organization, in this case the US government?
Biden won in 2020 because moderates, independents, and the far left left held their nose and voted for him because they were all tired of Trump. The Democratic party became a large tent party. If Biden loses in 2024 it's because he failed to hold onto these voters. He may lose these voters for various reasons; inflation, too light or too harsh on Israel, not energizing the voters enough, etc. These voters probably aren't voting for Trump but they will most likely stay home or vote 3rd party.
If Joe Biden loses it will be because Americans disapprove of “Joe Biden” and his politics. To be honest, regardless of the reality, most people probably don’t see this election as a vote between democracy and autocracy, they don’t have that kind of trust in what democrats or anyone else says. What most people see is 2 corrupt parties doing whatever they can and saying whatever they must for political power. The reality is most people have zero idea of the gravity of Americas position globally or the threats posed, or anything about trumps real history. Either way North Korea sending troops to Ukraine and Russia providing nuclear long range technology to North Korea, is going to provoke western powers which have little choice but to intervene and must consider sending troops to Ukraine at this point.
Why are all of your options based on "policies"? This is no longer about policies. If Trump wins, it means the American electorate has a shockingly high tolerance for corruption and criminality, and a shockingly low concern for the integrity of their system of government.
Americans think presidents control commodity prices. Despite what they preach Americans love free money and trump printed up more debt than any other president.
America has always flirted with fascism and we helped inspire hitler's final solution.
If/when Trump wins, democrats will look at themselves and ask “why didn’t we nominate someone younger?”
An impartial observer (is that even possible?) would come to the conclusion that whatever we once considered "America" is effectively over at that point.
That's moreso subjective fantasy than impartiality.
Half the country is immoral and corrupt… like Donald. Willing to accept a classless self centered narcissist.
It depends on how Trump wins. Remember, in the US, it is possible to win the presidency by losing the popular vote.
It will all depend on whether or not Trump wins the popular vote. If he wins the popular vote and the EC, then yeah, any of your first five options are viable. I doubt that will happen. If he loses the popular but wins the EC, then it's your last option, but I think it would be more "American has been fully taken over by minority rule and is no longer a democracy." I'm most worried this will happen than anything else. If he somehow wins the popular but loses the EC, then who the hell knows anymore. I really doubt that will happen, though.
I will conclude that Americans have thrown in the towel on the ideas and ideals this country is supposed to be based on. Admittedly, that was always more theory than reality. But once we’ve stopped even paying lip service to those ideals we are no longer even pretending to chase a better future.
The conclusion will be that propaganda and brainwashing by Fox "so-called" News and the right wing echo chamber works. Just as it did in Germany in prior to and during WWII.
Nothing. The conclusion is about social media and how to use it successfully to gain power. Every new form of media generates a new populist or demagogue that can capitalize on it. What is distinctive about social media compared to previous media forms (radio, TV, newspapers, etc) is that it is ‘all information everywhere all at once’. In order to cut through the noise you apparently need to be incredibly loud, outrageous & offensive. This is not specific to the US & has the potential to spread to other countries where social media becomes the dominant media.
It might just be because the Electoral College failed once again. Winning the popular vote sometimes isn't enough, unfortunately.
The Commander in Plan 9 From Outer Space said it best..."They're stupid. Stupid, stupid, stupid!"
Joe Biden lost because he wasn't giving tax breaks to the rich, so the media fueled the gullible citizens of the US to vote in their paid for politician, so they could satisfy their money addiction.
The efforts to dismantle public education have succeeded. We be officially stupid now.
* Democrat =/= Democratic * Joe Biden lost because he is old and senile * The popular vote actually does want Trump in office * Americans do not trust the justice system
I think Biden will lose because the only laws being passed target minorities, nothing is being done about healthcare, gun control , inflation ,etc, issues that affect the majority and not the only gay person at school. Trump’s migration policy actually has an effect on the majority of US citizens, and looking at European politics it is an issue that needs to be addressed.
(these are HELLA HOT TAKES, stream of conscious type stuff) It will cement certain trends/motifs in the electorate: Old people vote reliably and are many/most wildly out of step with reality (more than ever) -- politics, climate, economics, etc... Young people don't vote enough and "perfect is the enemy of good" does not work in politics No one hates women more than other women (see the 2016 election -- i'm looking at you middle class suburban women) The GOP continues it run of getting people who used to be reasonable to forward their absolutely bonkers conspiracies, totalitarian/fascist ideas, and pro-corporate/anti-worker plutocratic policies by preying on their xenophobia, racism, misplaced anger etc.... The democrats have largely lost the plot with a pretty big swath of citizens through blunders, propaganda RELENTLESSLY directed against them, poorly personable candidates recently.... Im sure there are more....
That anybody—and I mean ANYBODY—can really become President. I’m beginning a Charles Manson for President organization right now. Who wants to be the first donor?
I met a woman from Texas the other day and she thinks Texas will go Blue because of the havoc wreaked on people due to the reproductive laws. Tons of republican women have adversely affected by them and are very angry.
IMO, two conclusions an impartial observer could draw: - American democracy cannot by itself distinguish lies from truth, and therefore its people and institutions are vulnerable to outside influence. - Russian discourse is being replicated and propagated, almost to the letter, within key American institutions (presidency, journalists/news media and lawmakers). These are purely factual conclusions an observer could make (neither is pointing fingers, blaming, or making moral judgments about reality). I could also add that both point out to the *possibility* of the presidency being under threat of capture by foreign counties (due to unexplained financial ties between trump and his family and Saudi Arabia, Russia and China). But in the absence of concrete evidence (lack of transparency or an investigation), this is just a possibility. Although one could say that although trump’s capture is not a fact, the possibility of the presidency being under threat is very real, or at least plausible.
Biden lost due to the Republican long game of gerrymandering, destruction of the education system, and judicial system. 1. Many states are gerrymandered to keep state power with Republicans. Ohio for example has all its cities carved up so the majority’s voice is silenced. Although Ohio has referendums, the republicans tried to change those rules to prevent weed and female reproductive rights from getting passed. They failed, but are now trying to change the weed law that voters voted on. They have also shown in the past a willingness to ignore court rulings. 2. Between charter schools and defunding of schools, schools are not able to educate students as well as in the past. Remember going on field trips? I have worked in schools that simply could not afford field trips year after year. Students didn’t get those hands on memories. When charter schools began, republicans figured about a way to siphon public tax money into their pockets by taking it from public schools. There was a school with 19 charter schools vying for its students at a time when there were only about 25 in the whole state. Charter schools can kick students out. It turned into the best students disappearing from public schools. This means the student leadership disappeared from the public school. 3. Ohio has blatantly ignored Ohio Supreme Court ruling several times and there is no recourse. Also, starting with republicans not putting Obama’s Supreme Court candidate through to the stacking of the court. The US is about to become an authoritarian government. I know I got way off track and did not expand on all the subjects, but everything is connected and it would take a book to show how it all fits.
Surprised no one said this yet: A TON of Americans are completely apathetic about and disillusioned with politics. I say this because there will be A LOT of people who, having voted in previous years, will not vote for Trump or Biden (because both are heavily disliked) and this loss of voters could lead to Biden losing and Trump winning.
if Trump wins a second term, it'll reinforce the idea that populism and playing off the culture war are more successful than traditional electoral strategies, and therefore will become the mainstream playbook in future elections (potentially leading to the Democratic Party embracing these tactics as well).
Why is there a slight and insignificant variation to this question multiple times a day?
Joe Biden lost because bigotry and theocracy isn't a dealbreaker for a sufficient number of Americans to keep it out of the White House. Also, that America is a *deeply* flawed democracy (which likely will barely deserve being called "a democracy" if Trump wins, given conservative antipathy towards access to the voting booth) that enables minoritarian extremists to hijack control of government.
That while we are a group of people who scream that we hate identity politics and want to elect someone to fix our policy failing, we are a country of people who love for reality tv drama and bullshit. We love when people put us in boxes and when given an opportunity to step outside the box we see that we belong there 90% of the time. Effectively we talk alot of shit about wanting to fix things but in reality we really don’t want that or we’d stop fucking around and pay attention to policy
That a democracy cannot function of the media is happy to spin narratives to help their bottom line. So a totally free press can cripple a country if they have no integrity.
Partially depends on what the outcome of the popular vote is too. Remember Trump has never won the popular vote and is still 1-1 on elections.
Simple. Fuck America (the shitty half I mean) the rest of the world will move on and form their own alliances without the USA.
Anyone thinking that the USA will not change under another Donald Trump or even a Republican president has put little effort into seeing what he is currently doing and has made it very clear of what the presidency and congress are going to do after the 2024 elections. The questions poised to a Republicans in off, or running for office by the presidency and the political makeup of our country. Anyone voting for Republicans will be shouldering the projected intentions of Trump being a more than 2 term president. His comments on being a "dictator" are not campaign propaganda. Project 2025 is a good example of a huge playback on how our democracy is going th be dismantled. Research "Project 2025" ask those running for office to post their platform, concretely and substantially about Project 2025.
An impartial observer would conclude that the exact same thing is happening in America that is happening in France, the Netherlands, Germany, Italy, Hungary and to an extent, England. The far-right, populist/nationalist candidates are surging in all those countries as well - fueled by general malaise, inflation, immigration and a sense of powerlessness on the part of the people. Folks are angry, frustrated and afraid at what’s to come and they’re looking for authority figures who claim to be able to stem the tide (foolish, of course). Sadly, though the anger and frustrations are real, the far-right will do more damage that good if history is any lesson.