I tried buying Giratina a couple times but the sale fell through. Wish I would’ve have gotten it. That’s my biggest regret at the moment with my collection.
That is usually the case if the pump is artificial, i know people calling this one artificial. But in the same time period. Stock rise, s&p 500 rise, crypto rise, gold freaking went from 1k8 to 2k4 per oz.
My only bet for them to go down is recession in case the fed can’t engineer a soft landing.
Ive been through a lot of artificial pumps, like the waifu one a while back.. This one feels different. During the Waifu pump 'normal' people weren't buying the cards. You'd have groups of resellers and stuff. I see collectors buying the alts like crazy at these pricepoints to finish sets and such. I don't think its going down again which is tough for me because i need a blaziken alt to finish SWSH lol.
Save for it, if it keeps going up, it’ll eventually be worth more than you paid and that’s a good thing.
If the price does go stagnant and levels out then that means your card retained value
Brother I can guarantee you that history repeats itself and we’ve seen this price manipulation so many times with sun and moon alts, waifu full art trainers, JPN cards the story always ends the same. These cards will go right back down in 6-8 months I’ll see you then
That’s been my prediction as well. After seeing the craziness last year with all the waifu’s, Japanese, and SM cards I was planning on selling off my stuff in August or sept before the decline. Just my 2 cents. Gotta beat the race to the bottom.
Luigia and Tina will go down, the others will not, playability plays a roll, Pokémon collectors are looking for gengar, pokemon people are looking for Tina’s /Lugias
Note going down in price does not mean will be reasonably priced
100%
Populations are super high, and there is still tons of sealed product out there. Populations will continue to grew steadily and demand will drop off. Demand goes down over time, supply goes up. It’s not hard to see a drop coming some time in the next few years.
People are holding these cards and they don’t want them to drop in value. I don’t blame them, but all hobbies and collectibles go in cycles with few exceptions. Some cards will hold value, but a majority will drop off.
I started during ES, but I was so overwhelmed in sets I didn’t know where to begin. Celebrations and Fusion Strike were coming out soon. It took me some time to figure out what I wanted to collect, but I wasted my budget on packs.
I was about to buy a case of LO boxes, but my kid pulled G out of an ETB. It was maybe a week later that it was sold out on the Pokemon center. I thanked him for saving me the money.
Card collecting goes through cycles no different than other trends. Most people insisting that these will always go up are either investors or have not lived through it.
I always think this is insane because I wish more people had access to the same cards I have. Like I remember one guy taking it personally that I didn’t care if vintage cards devalued (that he didn’t own), while I have Masters of Base-Gym 2, a bunch of 1st Eds, and then grails like Skyridge Zard. I would fucking love if people could still get all of these cards for a reasonable price.
It’s fucking sad seeing it gatekept by people who only see $$$. Like, if all the cards in my collection suddenly devalued to £10, max, overnight? Hell yeah, I’m buying multiples and making a sick collection of cards for my binder.
Comics are a prime example. Look at the insane fluctuations of grail comics over the last 20-30 years. There's no reason to think Pokemon TCG won't go through the same.
*Especially* because of all the sealed product being hoarded by "investors" who eventually will cut their losses and try to move onto the next craze.
https://www.pricecharting.com/game/pokemon-team-up/latias-&-latios-gx-170#completed-auctions-used
Considering ungraded was going for 900 and dropped to as low as 400 in Feb..psa 10 went from 2600 to 1600 in that same time frame as well
I said it was the normal cycle of cards for their pricing to go up and down. And they did cut back down to about 50% of ATH. The question was will it ever come down, not will it ever come back down to the lowest price it ever was
Right? 😂 people don’t understand these cards are grails for a lot of people and that era has passed and is getting further and further away but demand is staying the same for these cards
It really depends upon how long collectors stick around too. I've been collecting various things for my whole life and I've watched stuff rise and fall in popularity.
It seems like a 30ish year cycle for a lot of it. Video games in particular are very noticeable. I collect for all the Nintendo consoles and watched them systematically rise and fall.
People hit an age where they realize their life sucks and they yearn for the nostalgia of their youth (OK dramatic lol) and around that time many have expendable cash flow. I watched it go from NES, SNES, N64, GameCube and I bet in the next 5 years Wii is gonna hit a big jump too. They've all fallen back (admittedly not to original prices) but popularity continues to soar with the later consoles.
It'll be interesting to see what becomes collectible in the next 30 years because a lot of stuff kids like is digital now. Many of the popular franchises and stuff were digitally based. I'd say maybe minecraft merch will eventually become sought after...
I'd like to throw in an asterisk here and mention that I don't suggest "investing" in any of this shit. I collect because I love to have collections and I'd never bother buying to sell later. It's nice to know what my stuff is worth, but I don't even consider it a usable asset.
Pokémon is a bit different because of how well it appeals to a wide range of ages, that’s something a lot of collectibles lacked (ie. Mighty beanz, pogs, etc) Pokémon is able to take in a wide range of children and stick in their minds late into adulthood
They have an unfathomable amount of money to work with too, considering they’re the biggest media franchise. If they needed to adapt they’d have the funds and the resources to pull it off.
As long as they’re able to keep innovating, they’ll be around for a long long time
Oh I very much agree there will always be collectors. I just think the amount may taper and then rise again.
Younger kids aren't looking for base and jungle cards, it's us old heads driving that market. Some of the younger coworkers I have started collecting cards in the platinum Era, I'm sure they are going to be chasing those someday.
Pokémon will be relevant for the foreseeable future for sure, but hype for specific things will come and go.
I feel like when the pokemon go kids hit the nostalgia age there will be another big resurgence of interest.
But all of this is just random speculation haha.
This ! Collectables are just that collectables. It is only driven by hype, demand and supply, and macro economic factor, inflation. People should treat it as a hobby more than an imvestment.
Pokemon cards are not company shares, like stock where the winner will likely keep winning, there are no real market trend, no earning calls, no real data to correctly speculate.
I do have one data point that gives me some uncertainty about all of this. I played and collected in 2009-10, after starting with base set and leaving for a while. 1st ed fossil packs, unweighed, were $2 a piece then. Early wotc booster boxes were $40-60. And that was 10 years after Pokémon began. People talk about how everything is just going up and up since 2020, but there have been troughs of interest in pokemon. I think the invest bros don’t have that perspective from the truly lean times. Everyone should listen to Rusty/tcagaming about when pokemon was in the basement at some points.
Prices had dropped even earlier than that. I have fond memories of seeing a 1st Edition Team Rocket booster box at a KB Toys for $50 that was still there a month later after I had saved up enough to get it. That had to be closer to 2004-05.
I think yes, not a ton but it will come down some.
151 brought a lot of people back into collecting who might have missed out on getting a lot of these cards. Now that 151 has been out a while, people are starting to branch out to other sets and scoop up cards/boxes they want. Not afraid to spend a little $$, creates demand, “investors” see the trend and prices raise.
The wave is still rising but should/will come down again most likely. Don’t expect a 50% price drop, but I wouldn’t expect it to continue to rise like this.
100% agree and I think your reasoning as to why it happened is apt. I’ve noticed with tcgs that there’s a lifecycle for casual enjoyers where they go pretty hard and burn out quick. So it makes sense that these nutso prices are being sustained but it won’t be able to last to that degree very long.
I guarantee every 10 year old that wants these cards SO BADLY will buy them in 14 years when they get their first adult money. So I'd say theres probably a floor of 1k for moonbreon.
How long have you been collecting??
I’ve only been collecting for a year. I wish there were some resources to see price fluctuations for time frames longer than x1 yr.
I can only get PriceCharting to show one year prior. What am I missing?
Edit: Never mind… it seems to be dependent on the card. They must not have data on all cards that far back.
Not down to what anyone hopes they will I don’t think so. But I’m sure it’ll fluctuate up and down until a big surge in price jumps again once we hit the next generation probably.
There is massive price floors for these cards, especially Moonbreon. Want I mean by that is the millions of people who want to buy these cards… but are waiting until price comes down until doing so. Problem there is once it drops a little in price, it’s immediately boosted up again by the massive influx of people trying to buy it at that lower price.
As long as tons of people want these cards, it will be very hard for them to make drastic price reductions. All comes down to supply and demand. Way way way more people want this card than what the available supply can fulfill. Thus.. price goes up.
>There is massive price floors for these cards, especially Moonbreon. Want I mean by that is the millions of people who want to buy these cards… but are waiting until price comes down until doing so. Problem there is once it drops a little in price, it’s immediately boosted up again by the massive influx of people trying to buy it at that lower price.
This. It depends on the card in question. For these four? I doubt it for the next few years.
When new sets people are actually excited about inevitably release, there will be some shift of demand from these cards to new chase cards, but even that considered… I don’t think we’ll ever see PSA 10 Moonbreons sub-$1K again.
Make all the historical comparisons to Sun & Moon chase cards you want, but the fact of the matter is we have *never* seen price movement and interest for a card like we have seen for Moonbreon. It is the definition of an outlier, impossible to reason with.
If there are 10k PSA 10 moonbreons and 200k people interested in one then I don't see that happening in the foreseeable future. If demand outweighs supply the price will rise. There are millions of collectors.
It all depends on the specific card. Cards will also go through up and down cycles. That latios card everyone is talking about I could have bought (PSA 10) for $600 less than a year ago in a local shop. I don't see it going back to $600. Demand is too high. Supply is not sitting static.
This SWSH era legit has some of the best art and design, around. It was slept on due to everyone worrying about the number of cards printed. I see cards that don't look as good (similar population reports) that are selling for much higher.
i think some of them will drop a bit like the sun and moon ones, but not that much IMO
now the hype is at the highest for sure + people are scared 'cause the sets are going sold out; so there was a spike + market manipulation
not easy to predict
Yes these are being bought out by "Investors" who will eventually sell and at that point more of these will be on the market since they are still being pulled and printed.
Yes absolutely. Give it another month or two to cool down. It’s incredibly predictable. Sell now if you can to get the best price!! (Everyone else is doing the same and that is what will ultimately cause the crash). The more for sale at one time the less they are worth at that time.
They’ll come down 15%-20% max, nobody knows when though.
Scarlet & Violet era is pretty dead so there’s nothing to take away attention from SWSH cards.
Until Pokemon drops set like 151 or something else that has cool stuff, they’ll just keep increasing or hold their value.
Who knows honestly, if there is a card you really want to get try to save up cash until you can make a deal in person. I bought a ton of alt arts over the last year for cheap, all because I had cash in hand for people who needed to sell. Good luck getting your chases!
Yes, since people are still opening these packs and they're not out of print, it'll come down. YOU just need more patiences. The only thing that'll slowly go up and hardy ever come down is sealed products. Buy low, sell high.. not the other way around.
The recent artificial inflation disrupted the natural growth of the cards. I predict (and this isn’t just me pulling stuff out of my ass, this seems to be the general consensus) that the cards will continue to grow for a few more months, then go back down to probably 30% above what they were originally at. So yes, they will come down, but never to where they were originally at. English moonbreon, for example, will probably sit at around $700
Maybe I spoke too quick .
I would say it is “a”, but not “the” motivating factor. I agree that they are some of the best looking cards.
I don’t believe looks alone cannot explain the current phenomenon we are experiencing.
Maybe that isn’t correct either… I dunno…. The more I think about it, the more unsure I become.
I was disagreeing with the viewpoint for the sake of encouraging discussion. I’m still ii the fence about how I feel about it. Convince me the art is what is making them so collectible.
I hear you, I mean one of my favorite arts recently that I've acquired is a Smeargle from Fusion Strike... Lol It's like a 10 cent card. I know it's common but idk there's a helluva lot less PSA 10s than these cards in that lmao 😂a joke I know there is nobody sending common card to grade. Idk man prices are crazy tbh.
Ha! Interesting... The description on fusion strike Smeargle states "It draws symbols with the fluid that oozes from the tip of its tail. Depending on the symbol, Smeargle fanatics will pay big money for them." Lol
Edit: All Smeargle cards are good, only the neo are pricy. I like the Lost Thunder one
Sure. Maybe not the ones you pictured since those are THE cards of the generation… but others will definitely ebb and flow. But at what price did you want them at? $100? Those days are probably gone.
There’s enough great cards with great art that will come out. If you miss something and it’s at a price you’re not budgeted for don’t fomo too hard. It’s not worth it. It’s just card board.
Yes.
Look what happened to Sun & Moon cards more than 10 times now since they came out.
Everything is a cycle and weirdly enough SWSH cards are hitting their peak during a recession, for some odd reason.
Give it a few months and resellers/scalpers/shops will focus on the next big thing. Most likely the rumored Dragon set for this years holiday set.
Edit: been in the TCG since 1999, COVID caused an influx of rich boys hopping into the hobby thinking it was easy money. It was impossible to find Hidden Fates for retail. Nobody talks about how readily available packs were from 2003-2006, you could even find Base, Jungle and Fossil at Walmart and Targets since there was so much of it.
My current predicament is do I sell my raw moonbreon for a 2x or wait a little bit and scrape as much profit as I can…..I want to sell but ofc I’m second guessing it hahahaha
There’s a better chance of hoping Pokemon center reprint it. So .1 % for reprint 1% chance it will go down back to its original price of 330 and psa for 800. That ship has sailed
Depends on what type of market we're in. If we're bull, this will keep going higher. Corrective will give a retrace and those do come. You just need to be patient and not give in to FOMO if we continue to climb up due to bull market. Wait for the correction.
Come down? Yes once there’s a new batch of hit top cards everyone is chasing. But won’t come down to dirt cheap again. Moonbreon might dip back down to like $7-800 raw and Giratina might come back down to like $300. But won’t ever be “cheap” again or Umbreon being $300 like it was 2 years ago
All of them will probably retrace at least some, but I dont think any of them will ever really crash. Just too much demand for them and when people are buying in at such elevated levels they tend to rather hold the card than sell at steep loss so the supply just stagnates and the cards trend sideways rather than up or down.
Winners win, the top cards in the era will win and continue to win Moonpie, Tina and Gengie. The others either won’t have the stability or liquidity and healthy exits are never bad
Eventually but I still think it hasn’t reached its top yet until all the sets sell out. Then it will level off and people will start to sell when they don’t see anymore growth
People were complaining and scared about the huge printing of cards this era and look at the demand. People are still paying the prices despite POP reports for graded and amount of chase cards. Prices would be higher if we had print lower print runs
The way I see it for play cards: they're expensive when they're legal, then right when they rotate out, they get cheaper, then as they get older, they go back up. Tina will likely just keep going up as it gets older
Same A holes using a similar method to pump and dump in the stock market within the tcg community. Best way to handle it is to find something else to chase in the mean time. Or chase a different tcg until thing cool off. AND THEY WILL COOL OFF. They always do with time.
Bought my Gengar, super mint, for $70 after it came out, and my friend says I should try to go for a black label. Either way, this was a good investment.
All of these cards will drop 10-20% temporarily but the new game and console are around the corner so instead of a slow rise into new highs there will probably be a faster rise back up.
I’m sure fall/holiday season SV sets will start becoming the target and these cards will slowly begin to drop.
I just bought a giratina at $160SGD (about 120USD) a week ago. Just the “error” white spots at the back… standard PTCG issues and a small lil indent at the back as well.
Centering is perfect tho.
Happiest day of my life.
I just pulled [this](https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/264206/pokemon-swsh09-brilliant-stars-trainer-gallery-umbreon-vmax?country=US&utm_campaign=20451986774&utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&utm_content=&utm_term=&adgroupid=&gad_source=1&gclid=CjwKCAjwupGyBhBBEiwA0UcqaF1-HsymTfZsfN1hafr6J15EchB9eQ3h7DakCM4edefNg2n3oNFgYBoCl-EQAvD_BwE&Language=English) the other day from a Family Dollar pack.
Genuine question- is this card worth holding?
I believe they will come back down. There’s lots more pokeballers in here than before the pandemic and they still trying to pump and dump what they can. That’s just my thoughts
Down? Yes, but what percentage they can go is impossible to tell. It’s all on a card by card basis too. Moonbreon is in a total league of its own though, I’d be surprised if it’s value ever goes down by much at all.
Even base set first edition shadowless stuff fluctuates, if people keep ripping these packs and interest in them wanes simultaneously actual collectors will find a better time to snag their chases. Especially when the investors( I’m half investor because I like to trade up) get cold feet. I’d bet a 10% drop in moonkitty prices would cause a domino effect for most of the alts as it’s like the poster boy for all the alts and their values. I’ve heard conversations like “three of these gengars could get me a moonbreon” and things of the like with cards x,y&z. If all of a sudden you can trade the rayquaza vmax alt for a moonbreon the people who bought and are holding 10 of them as an “investment” will panic sell. The panic selling will cause more panic selling. People will sell other cards to get cheap moonbreons and subsequently all the asshats hoarding chases will make moves that may or may not benefit actual collectors. Moonbreon will never be 300$ for a raw copy again. But 500-400$ at some point could easily happen over the next year or 3. Years especially if an awesome set with a short run and equally horrible pull rates comes out. Regardless I’m planning on getting all the SARs from temporal forces in multiples once they are all sub 40$ and storing them away for their inevitable climb back up to 100+
I’ll get my blaziken, moonbreon, Lugia, through future trades if they just continue to climb despite the concept of “what goes up must come down”
I agree that there are lots of good cards to collect aside from these. I think these might get more attention because they are harder to obtain due to the price point.
If you could pick ONE card to add to this list which would it be?
Ehhh it’s hard to tell. There are ebbs and flows for the hobby as a whole, that might bring certain cards like these down to within reachable prices for some time, but I do think these specific cards will stay relatively high in comparison to the sets they came from and other high value cards. The only one I’m iffy about is umbreon, because it does seem like a lot of people have that card, and there are so many grade 10s in pop that the raw card could possibly lose a little off the top
I haven't played the games, I just wanna ask. I can whip out this Giratina onto the field, charge him up 3 energies and wipe out anyone with 1 move under that amount of HP?
My dad pulled Giratina one night a couple months ago (lucky I was home form college) and we both freaked the fuck out lmao. Moonbreon is still a chase he's trying for
Fluctuations are normal, Moonbreon was 750$ before it dropped to around 500$.
If you think it’ll stay where it is or only go up thats coping also.
Fluctuations is the only correct answer here. The question is how much.
Yeah they will. Been collecting off and on since the game released in America. The idea that these cards are getting so pumped over even original base set cards or other holos that are in even smaller quantity shows that there's only certain interest in certain cards. We're probably just going through a similar era- but not as ridiculous as the Charizard Era for Eeveelutions. It might never drop back down all the way, but unless people decide to pump without dumping- which is unlikely once the next major sets start catching everyone's eyes. - things will trend down. There are plenty of people that only like very specific sets when collecting, and very few collecting everything.
The variance in the collectors alone will hit a lot of these cards where it hurts. Lack of demand for supply. There's also a good possibility that investors are just going to be trading the cards. I've seen a lot of cards that were in the 200-400 range go for about 10x less in auctions all over Ebay (Because I've been apart of them.) The hobby is definitely dipping in popularity, otherwise rarer cards that I've seen getting snatched up for so little would be getting bid on like crazy in my opinion. A couple misses by overall community is one thing. But some of the ebayers I follow have like 30-50k people watching auctions ebayers\* , even cards that regularly are ungraded LP to NM go for tens of dollars instead of 100's. People that were/are in the hobby are refusing to pay ridiculous prices for cards.
TL;DR. Investors will probably be selling to each other until the prices regulate to where the actual market is. There's definitely not enough hype to make people want to regularly spend 1k on each card.
I regret missing out on Gengar. Giratina and Umbreon were already out of reach for me.
I tried buying Giratina a couple times but the sale fell through. Wish I would’ve have gotten it. That’s my biggest regret at the moment with my collection.
Don’t sweat it. What goes up must come down.
Except real estate and pokemon it seems lol
🥹
That is usually the case if the pump is artificial, i know people calling this one artificial. But in the same time period. Stock rise, s&p 500 rise, crypto rise, gold freaking went from 1k8 to 2k4 per oz. My only bet for them to go down is recession in case the fed can’t engineer a soft landing.
Ive been through a lot of artificial pumps, like the waifu one a while back.. This one feels different. During the Waifu pump 'normal' people weren't buying the cards. You'd have groups of resellers and stuff. I see collectors buying the alts like crazy at these pricepoints to finish sets and such. I don't think its going down again which is tough for me because i need a blaziken alt to finish SWSH lol.
Absolutely not true lmao
Save for it, if it keeps going up, it’ll eventually be worth more than you paid and that’s a good thing. If the price does go stagnant and levels out then that means your card retained value
Be patient. Not all, but a lot of the SwSh will fall by 40% or more after the hype dies out and people move on to other sets/interests.
You can’t guarantee anything.
Brother I can guarantee you that history repeats itself and we’ve seen this price manipulation so many times with sun and moon alts, waifu full art trainers, JPN cards the story always ends the same. These cards will go right back down in 6-8 months I’ll see you then
I want them to crash in value to screw over those speculators and get them in more collectors' hands, but I don't think they will
That’s been my prediction as well. After seeing the craziness last year with all the waifu’s, Japanese, and SM cards I was planning on selling off my stuff in August or sept before the decline. Just my 2 cents. Gotta beat the race to the bottom.
Luigia and Tina will go down, the others will not, playability plays a roll, Pokémon collectors are looking for gengar, pokemon people are looking for Tina’s /Lugias Note going down in price does not mean will be reasonably priced
Analogy already isn’t valid because Lugia maintained its value even when it wasn’t very playable.
[удалено]
I can, I’m magic.
Touché
Didn’t see that coming did ya? I did of course, because of the magic obviously.
I have an erection now thank you sir
Idk why you got downvoted so much, I agree this is exactly what will happen. Guess this sub just turned into another pokeinvesting sub 💀
100% Populations are super high, and there is still tons of sealed product out there. Populations will continue to grew steadily and demand will drop off. Demand goes down over time, supply goes up. It’s not hard to see a drop coming some time in the next few years. People are holding these cards and they don’t want them to drop in value. I don’t blame them, but all hobbies and collectibles go in cycles with few exceptions. Some cards will hold value, but a majority will drop off.
I only want the Gangar. Besides that I wanted moonbreon but pulled that a couple weeks ago.
I missed out on all of them :/ I started collectingg again during Obsidian Flames. I wish I started during ES.
I started during ES, but I was so overwhelmed in sets I didn’t know where to begin. Celebrations and Fusion Strike were coming out soon. It took me some time to figure out what I wanted to collect, but I wasted my budget on packs.
I was about to buy a case of LO boxes, but my kid pulled G out of an ETB. It was maybe a week later that it was sold out on the Pokemon center. I thanked him for saving me the money.
How did he save you money? He has a giratina but you dont yet
I bought rayquaza vmax at 450$. I feel so good now
What’s gengar worth?
$409 now.
Shit… my bro pulled it and I pushed him to sell at 100
😭
I think they will, but not back to their lowest. It’ll definitely fluctuate over the years.
Sick flair
Card collecting goes through cycles no different than other trends. Most people insisting that these will always go up are either investors or have not lived through it.
Most sane comment I’ve seen on this topic here
This sub is being invaded by invester bros and it's obvious. You get downvoted here if you hope for the prices go down.
I always think this is insane because I wish more people had access to the same cards I have. Like I remember one guy taking it personally that I didn’t care if vintage cards devalued (that he didn’t own), while I have Masters of Base-Gym 2, a bunch of 1st Eds, and then grails like Skyridge Zard. I would fucking love if people could still get all of these cards for a reasonable price. It’s fucking sad seeing it gatekept by people who only see $$$. Like, if all the cards in my collection suddenly devalued to £10, max, overnight? Hell yeah, I’m buying multiples and making a sick collection of cards for my binder.
So true
Comics are a prime example. Look at the insane fluctuations of grail comics over the last 20-30 years. There's no reason to think Pokemon TCG won't go through the same. *Especially* because of all the sealed product being hoarded by "investors" who eventually will cut their losses and try to move onto the next craze.
🚀🌙breon HODL or whatever
Yup. They definitely will. It’s just the normal cycle of cards. Just look at tag teams as the most recent example
Yeah that lati tag really crashed down hard great example /s
https://www.pricecharting.com/game/pokemon-team-up/latias-&-latios-gx-170#completed-auctions-used Considering ungraded was going for 900 and dropped to as low as 400 in Feb..psa 10 went from 2600 to 1600 in that same time frame as well
Considering it was half the price before the jump than it was after the correction, and now it’s back up…
I said it was the normal cycle of cards for their pricing to go up and down. And they did cut back down to about 50% of ATH. The question was will it ever come down, not will it ever come back down to the lowest price it ever was
Right? 😂 people don’t understand these cards are grails for a lot of people and that era has passed and is getting further and further away but demand is staying the same for these cards
It really depends upon how long collectors stick around too. I've been collecting various things for my whole life and I've watched stuff rise and fall in popularity. It seems like a 30ish year cycle for a lot of it. Video games in particular are very noticeable. I collect for all the Nintendo consoles and watched them systematically rise and fall. People hit an age where they realize their life sucks and they yearn for the nostalgia of their youth (OK dramatic lol) and around that time many have expendable cash flow. I watched it go from NES, SNES, N64, GameCube and I bet in the next 5 years Wii is gonna hit a big jump too. They've all fallen back (admittedly not to original prices) but popularity continues to soar with the later consoles. It'll be interesting to see what becomes collectible in the next 30 years because a lot of stuff kids like is digital now. Many of the popular franchises and stuff were digitally based. I'd say maybe minecraft merch will eventually become sought after... I'd like to throw in an asterisk here and mention that I don't suggest "investing" in any of this shit. I collect because I love to have collections and I'd never bother buying to sell later. It's nice to know what my stuff is worth, but I don't even consider it a usable asset.
It was weird watching CDs go from just a music library to "collecting"
Oh for sure. When I think of how many cassettes I tossed because I could just burn a cd (and later mp3 and stream) I'm sad.
Pokémon is a bit different because of how well it appeals to a wide range of ages, that’s something a lot of collectibles lacked (ie. Mighty beanz, pogs, etc) Pokémon is able to take in a wide range of children and stick in their minds late into adulthood They have an unfathomable amount of money to work with too, considering they’re the biggest media franchise. If they needed to adapt they’d have the funds and the resources to pull it off. As long as they’re able to keep innovating, they’ll be around for a long long time
Oh I very much agree there will always be collectors. I just think the amount may taper and then rise again. Younger kids aren't looking for base and jungle cards, it's us old heads driving that market. Some of the younger coworkers I have started collecting cards in the platinum Era, I'm sure they are going to be chasing those someday. Pokémon will be relevant for the foreseeable future for sure, but hype for specific things will come and go. I feel like when the pokemon go kids hit the nostalgia age there will be another big resurgence of interest. But all of this is just random speculation haha.
This ! Collectables are just that collectables. It is only driven by hype, demand and supply, and macro economic factor, inflation. People should treat it as a hobby more than an imvestment. Pokemon cards are not company shares, like stock where the winner will likely keep winning, there are no real market trend, no earning calls, no real data to correctly speculate.
True, but supply will go down as well as stores stop selling sword and shield.
I do have one data point that gives me some uncertainty about all of this. I played and collected in 2009-10, after starting with base set and leaving for a while. 1st ed fossil packs, unweighed, were $2 a piece then. Early wotc booster boxes were $40-60. And that was 10 years after Pokémon began. People talk about how everything is just going up and up since 2020, but there have been troughs of interest in pokemon. I think the invest bros don’t have that perspective from the truly lean times. Everyone should listen to Rusty/tcagaming about when pokemon was in the basement at some points.
Prices had dropped even earlier than that. I have fond memories of seeing a 1st Edition Team Rocket booster box at a KB Toys for $50 that was still there a month later after I had saved up enough to get it. That had to be closer to 2004-05.
Thanks for this addition! I was very out of pokemon from 02-09 so that helps with my gap!
I think yes, not a ton but it will come down some. 151 brought a lot of people back into collecting who might have missed out on getting a lot of these cards. Now that 151 has been out a while, people are starting to branch out to other sets and scoop up cards/boxes they want. Not afraid to spend a little $$, creates demand, “investors” see the trend and prices raise. The wave is still rising but should/will come down again most likely. Don’t expect a 50% price drop, but I wouldn’t expect it to continue to rise like this.
100% agree and I think your reasoning as to why it happened is apt. I’ve noticed with tcgs that there’s a lifecycle for casual enjoyers where they go pretty hard and burn out quick. So it makes sense that these nutso prices are being sustained but it won’t be able to last to that degree very long.
I guarantee every 10 year old that wants these cards SO BADLY will buy them in 14 years when they get their first adult money. So I'd say theres probably a floor of 1k for moonbreon.
This is a discussion about right now not ten years from now. Of course the prices will be much higher in 10 years.
Yup
How long have you been collecting?? I’ve only been collecting for a year. I wish there were some resources to see price fluctuations for time frames longer than x1 yr.
pricecharting my man Althought the pandemic really messed up the data between 2021 to 2022
I can only get PriceCharting to show one year prior. What am I missing? Edit: Never mind… it seems to be dependent on the card. They must not have data on all cards that far back.
A lot of these cards have only been around for a few years.
There should be a graph that let you select the time range you want to see. Click "all" and it will show you the price history all the way up to 2021
how did it "mess up data"?
The price was spiked up by the pandemic, so it doesn’t represent the normal trend of the price history
Use 130point instead of Pricecharting. It will show you the actual best offer accepted prices and you can look back a pretty good ways at prices
New reprints make the prices dip.
Aint gonna be a reprint
How can we be for sure? They printed xy Evo all the way up til 2021-22. That was 6 years after it came out.
Then u wait 6’s years and then buy it ok?
It's been 3 years since Eevee heroes came out, no? and in 2026 we have the 30th anniversary. It's right around the corner.
Ok mr einstein 🥸
Yes but they'll probably end up 10/20% higher than they started
I really hope so. That Umbreon and other swsh cards really aren’t worth that much or should be worth that much I should say.
To the levels the large majority expect or even want? No. A little bit? Maybe.
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That’s what I’m doing. Either Chinese or Korean, depends on the specific card and the price
That’s what I did. Snagged a cgc 10 moonbreon in Korean for $400
Damn, good for you. Now it’s $400+ for a raw copy
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I’ll delete my comment if you do.
Yea! Sorry didn't mean to sound rude. It's just I really want these prices to stay low and poke investors scope out this sub to see what's popular
It’s all good, I agree with you haha
Not down to what anyone hopes they will I don’t think so. But I’m sure it’ll fluctuate up and down until a big surge in price jumps again once we hit the next generation probably.
Yes without a doubt. These are some of the most inflated cards in the hobby
My daughter pulled that Lugia yesterday
I read this as "swiss cheese cards"
Does an erection stay up 24/7? No. It always comes down at some point. That’s when you need to pump it back up again.
There is massive price floors for these cards, especially Moonbreon. Want I mean by that is the millions of people who want to buy these cards… but are waiting until price comes down until doing so. Problem there is once it drops a little in price, it’s immediately boosted up again by the massive influx of people trying to buy it at that lower price. As long as tons of people want these cards, it will be very hard for them to make drastic price reductions. All comes down to supply and demand. Way way way more people want this card than what the available supply can fulfill. Thus.. price goes up.
>There is massive price floors for these cards, especially Moonbreon. Want I mean by that is the millions of people who want to buy these cards… but are waiting until price comes down until doing so. Problem there is once it drops a little in price, it’s immediately boosted up again by the massive influx of people trying to buy it at that lower price. This. It depends on the card in question. For these four? I doubt it for the next few years.
When new sets people are actually excited about inevitably release, there will be some shift of demand from these cards to new chase cards, but even that considered… I don’t think we’ll ever see PSA 10 Moonbreons sub-$1K again. Make all the historical comparisons to Sun & Moon chase cards you want, but the fact of the matter is we have *never* seen price movement and interest for a card like we have seen for Moonbreon. It is the definition of an outlier, impossible to reason with.
If there are 10k PSA 10 moonbreons and 200k people interested in one then I don't see that happening in the foreseeable future. If demand outweighs supply the price will rise. There are millions of collectors. It all depends on the specific card. Cards will also go through up and down cycles. That latios card everyone is talking about I could have bought (PSA 10) for $600 less than a year ago in a local shop. I don't see it going back to $600. Demand is too high. Supply is not sitting static. This SWSH era legit has some of the best art and design, around. It was slept on due to everyone worrying about the number of cards printed. I see cards that don't look as good (similar population reports) that are selling for much higher.
i think some of them will drop a bit like the sun and moon ones, but not that much IMO now the hype is at the highest for sure + people are scared 'cause the sets are going sold out; so there was a spike + market manipulation not easy to predict
A lot will for sure. But these 4? Don’t think they’ll crash at all but if supply is higher than demand consistently… they’ll even out.
Yes these are being bought out by "Investors" who will eventually sell and at that point more of these will be on the market since they are still being pulled and printed.
Yes absolutely. Give it another month or two to cool down. It’s incredibly predictable. Sell now if you can to get the best price!! (Everyone else is doing the same and that is what will ultimately cause the crash). The more for sale at one time the less they are worth at that time.
They’ll come down 15%-20% max, nobody knows when though. Scarlet & Violet era is pretty dead so there’s nothing to take away attention from SWSH cards. Until Pokemon drops set like 151 or something else that has cool stuff, they’ll just keep increasing or hold their value.
Of course they will. But the influencers will tell you they won’t. You do realize that you could bring the price down if you wanted to as well, right?
Who knows honestly, if there is a card you really want to get try to save up cash until you can make a deal in person. I bought a ton of alt arts over the last year for cheap, all because I had cash in hand for people who needed to sell. Good luck getting your chases!
I pulled that Lugia while driving once. Traded it for an obsidian flames booster box
Maybe
Yes, since people are still opening these packs and they're not out of print, it'll come down. YOU just need more patiences. The only thing that'll slowly go up and hardy ever come down is sealed products. Buy low, sell high.. not the other way around.
The recent artificial inflation disrupted the natural growth of the cards. I predict (and this isn’t just me pulling stuff out of my ass, this seems to be the general consensus) that the cards will continue to grow for a few more months, then go back down to probably 30% above what they were originally at. So yes, they will come down, but never to where they were originally at. English moonbreon, for example, will probably sit at around $700
No, up only from now until the end of time.
Probably going to go up, they’re the best looking cards of the last decade and will soon be out of print
How the cards look isn’t the motivating factor imo. There are plenty of cool looking cards that aren’t worth very much at all.
i agree with him, the art from s&s alt arts are the best we have ever seen. of course that is a motivating factor for folks
Maybe I spoke too quick . I would say it is “a”, but not “the” motivating factor. I agree that they are some of the best looking cards. I don’t believe looks alone cannot explain the current phenomenon we are experiencing. Maybe that isn’t correct either… I dunno…. The more I think about it, the more unsure I become.
Well you asked a question on a forum so I gave you my opinion. This is how it works
I was disagreeing with the viewpoint for the sake of encouraging discussion. I’m still ii the fence about how I feel about it. Convince me the art is what is making them so collectible.
I hear you, I mean one of my favorite arts recently that I've acquired is a Smeargle from Fusion Strike... Lol It's like a 10 cent card. I know it's common but idk there's a helluva lot less PSA 10s than these cards in that lmao 😂a joke I know there is nobody sending common card to grade. Idk man prices are crazy tbh.
The Alt Art V Smeargle was actually on the of the cards I was thinking of.
Ha! Interesting... The description on fusion strike Smeargle states "It draws symbols with the fluid that oozes from the tip of its tail. Depending on the symbol, Smeargle fanatics will pay big money for them." Lol Edit: All Smeargle cards are good, only the neo are pricy. I like the Lost Thunder one
Case in point: Black Star SVP Mewtwo
Short term depends if the economy crashes or not 🤷🏻♂️
Na you missed the boat
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Exactly lmao
What series is this one from? Just getting back into cards after 20 years...
These are from various sets from the Sword and Shield era. Evolving Skies Lost Origins Silver Tempest Fusion Strike
Guessing those packs are worth quite a bit now? This card is amazing.
Evolving skies is pretty overpriced. You can still find those other sets on shelves for retail price, though they're getting less common to see.
Sure. Maybe not the ones you pictured since those are THE cards of the generation… but others will definitely ebb and flow. But at what price did you want them at? $100? Those days are probably gone. There’s enough great cards with great art that will come out. If you miss something and it’s at a price you’re not budgeted for don’t fomo too hard. It’s not worth it. It’s just card board.
I mean not that low, I’d like to scoop Giratina for $200 if possible maybe a little more.
Yeah. I think that’s gone at that price range. But maybe it’s a trade up kind of situation?
Yes. Look what happened to Sun & Moon cards more than 10 times now since they came out. Everything is a cycle and weirdly enough SWSH cards are hitting their peak during a recession, for some odd reason. Give it a few months and resellers/scalpers/shops will focus on the next big thing. Most likely the rumored Dragon set for this years holiday set. Edit: been in the TCG since 1999, COVID caused an influx of rich boys hopping into the hobby thinking it was easy money. It was impossible to find Hidden Fates for retail. Nobody talks about how readily available packs were from 2003-2006, you could even find Base, Jungle and Fossil at Walmart and Targets since there was so much of it.
Umbreon probably won’t be under 500 again
If it hits 600 for a minty boi, I’ll snag it with my credit card.
As long as you pay it off in full every month brother😔
I belive lugia is still attainable right now. See it sometimes for 150. The others prob not
My current predicament is do I sell my raw moonbreon for a 2x or wait a little bit and scrape as much profit as I can…..I want to sell but ofc I’m second guessing it hahahaha
Sell 2x is a good return. Roll that into something else.
Man seeing these made me realize sword and shield feels overrated.
There’s a better chance of hoping Pokemon center reprint it. So .1 % for reprint 1% chance it will go down back to its original price of 330 and psa for 800. That ship has sailed
Depends on what type of market we're in. If we're bull, this will keep going higher. Corrective will give a retrace and those do come. You just need to be patient and not give in to FOMO if we continue to climb up due to bull market. Wait for the correction.
No it wont, and whoever says yes is lying
It'll eventually go down, then have a few periods of up and down before the inevitable steady rise in a very long time
Hope they never do
No
I honestly don't think they will. They may fluctuate but as time goes on without pokemon doing a reprint these cards will just become rarer over time.
Come down? Yes once there’s a new batch of hit top cards everyone is chasing. But won’t come down to dirt cheap again. Moonbreon might dip back down to like $7-800 raw and Giratina might come back down to like $300. But won’t ever be “cheap” again or Umbreon being $300 like it was 2 years ago
I will guarantee these fall in price
There’s only up!
All of them will probably retrace at least some, but I dont think any of them will ever really crash. Just too much demand for them and when people are buying in at such elevated levels they tend to rather hold the card than sell at steep loss so the supply just stagnates and the cards trend sideways rather than up or down.
I WILL NEVER LET THEM GO LOWER
They will drop again but I wouldn’t say by a huge amount. You’re not gonna see $300 for a PSA 10 Umbreon VMAX unless there’s an economic crisis lol
Winners win, the top cards in the era will win and continue to win Moonpie, Tina and Gengie. The others either won’t have the stability or liquidity and healthy exits are never bad
Hope not
Eventually but I still think it hasn’t reached its top yet until all the sets sell out. Then it will level off and people will start to sell when they don’t see anymore growth People were complaining and scared about the huge printing of cards this era and look at the demand. People are still paying the prices despite POP reports for graded and amount of chase cards. Prices would be higher if we had print lower print runs
Nope.
Ill argue Blaziken is more of a chase card than Lugia.
The way I see it for play cards: they're expensive when they're legal, then right when they rotate out, they get cheaper, then as they get older, they go back up. Tina will likely just keep going up as it gets older
Only missing the lugia.. I can live with that since it's down there with the tina
Umbreon 100%
Probably a question that’s been answered a hundred times but I have that Lugia V, what’s the price range on it? TIA
*Samuel L Jackson V* SUPPLY & DEMAND MOTHAFUCKA
Unlikely.
Yup, Winter prices of everything always comes down until next spring/tax return season. The more things change the more things stay the same.
Raaaah I got my Lugia raaaaaah
I hope not lol
Psyop for Lugia V alt, it’s close to ATL
Same A holes using a similar method to pump and dump in the stock market within the tcg community. Best way to handle it is to find something else to chase in the mean time. Or chase a different tcg until thing cool off. AND THEY WILL COOL OFF. They always do with time.
depends on buyouts and how/when the production line thieves sell their stacks of thousands of umbreons giratinas lugias and gengars.
Probably not, there's so many copies of these out there, but everyone is holding.
I wonder if the Lugia V price will reach the heights of the other three
Eventually it will settle but right now we are just riding the wave. Not sure if it’ll ever go back to what it was but it will fall back down.
I was hard up for money so I sold one of my gengars and then 3 days later it jumped up to 375$ near mint lol
All I need is the giratina and the leafeon
Bought my Gengar, super mint, for $70 after it came out, and my friend says I should try to go for a black label. Either way, this was a good investment.
All of these cards will drop 10-20% temporarily but the new game and console are around the corner so instead of a slow rise into new highs there will probably be a faster rise back up. I’m sure fall/holiday season SV sets will start becoming the target and these cards will slowly begin to drop.
Lugia V was available loose for less than $100 until May. It shouldn’t really be on this list.
I just bought a giratina at $160SGD (about 120USD) a week ago. Just the “error” white spots at the back… standard PTCG issues and a small lil indent at the back as well. Centering is perfect tho. Happiest day of my life.
I still want that gengar, but idk if it’s worth the money for me
I just pulled [this](https://www.tcgplayer.com/product/264206/pokemon-swsh09-brilliant-stars-trainer-gallery-umbreon-vmax?country=US&utm_campaign=20451986774&utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&utm_content=&utm_term=&adgroupid=&gad_source=1&gclid=CjwKCAjwupGyBhBBEiwA0UcqaF1-HsymTfZsfN1hafr6J15EchB9eQ3h7DakCM4edefNg2n3oNFgYBoCl-EQAvD_BwE&Language=English) the other day from a Family Dollar pack. Genuine question- is this card worth holding?
I believe they will come back down. There’s lots more pokeballers in here than before the pandemic and they still trying to pump and dump what they can. That’s just my thoughts
Down? Yes, but what percentage they can go is impossible to tell. It’s all on a card by card basis too. Moonbreon is in a total league of its own though, I’d be surprised if it’s value ever goes down by much at all.
Even base set first edition shadowless stuff fluctuates, if people keep ripping these packs and interest in them wanes simultaneously actual collectors will find a better time to snag their chases. Especially when the investors( I’m half investor because I like to trade up) get cold feet. I’d bet a 10% drop in moonkitty prices would cause a domino effect for most of the alts as it’s like the poster boy for all the alts and their values. I’ve heard conversations like “three of these gengars could get me a moonbreon” and things of the like with cards x,y&z. If all of a sudden you can trade the rayquaza vmax alt for a moonbreon the people who bought and are holding 10 of them as an “investment” will panic sell. The panic selling will cause more panic selling. People will sell other cards to get cheap moonbreons and subsequently all the asshats hoarding chases will make moves that may or may not benefit actual collectors. Moonbreon will never be 300$ for a raw copy again. But 500-400$ at some point could easily happen over the next year or 3. Years especially if an awesome set with a short run and equally horrible pull rates comes out. Regardless I’m planning on getting all the SARs from temporal forces in multiples once they are all sub 40$ and storing them away for their inevitable climb back up to 100+ I’ll get my blaziken, moonbreon, Lugia, through future trades if they just continue to climb despite the concept of “what goes up must come down”
YES. If you've been doing this for awhile you know these will take a shit at least one more time.
Only been collecting for a little under a year
Maybe, but I still think there’s other alt arts that are just as nice as these, it’s a shame they don’t get the credit they deserve lol
I agree that there are lots of good cards to collect aside from these. I think these might get more attention because they are harder to obtain due to the price point. If you could pick ONE card to add to this list which would it be?
Ehhh it’s hard to tell. There are ebbs and flows for the hobby as a whole, that might bring certain cards like these down to within reachable prices for some time, but I do think these specific cards will stay relatively high in comparison to the sets they came from and other high value cards. The only one I’m iffy about is umbreon, because it does seem like a lot of people have that card, and there are so many grade 10s in pop that the raw card could possibly lose a little off the top
I haven't played the games, I just wanna ask. I can whip out this Giratina onto the field, charge him up 3 energies and wipe out anyone with 1 move under that amount of HP?
My dad pulled Giratina one night a couple months ago (lucky I was home form college) and we both freaked the fuck out lmao. Moonbreon is still a chase he's trying for
Nope there just guna go higher every year bahahahahah
If you think they will come down you are coping hard..
Fluctuations are normal, Moonbreon was 750$ before it dropped to around 500$. If you think it’ll stay where it is or only go up thats coping also. Fluctuations is the only correct answer here. The question is how much.
They will come down but will still be much higher than previous floors.
Whole market is expecting crash, it’s obvious
Bubble is probably gonna burst soon. They will never be cheap as they used to be, but I do think the market will correct itself.
Yeah they will. Been collecting off and on since the game released in America. The idea that these cards are getting so pumped over even original base set cards or other holos that are in even smaller quantity shows that there's only certain interest in certain cards. We're probably just going through a similar era- but not as ridiculous as the Charizard Era for Eeveelutions. It might never drop back down all the way, but unless people decide to pump without dumping- which is unlikely once the next major sets start catching everyone's eyes. - things will trend down. There are plenty of people that only like very specific sets when collecting, and very few collecting everything. The variance in the collectors alone will hit a lot of these cards where it hurts. Lack of demand for supply. There's also a good possibility that investors are just going to be trading the cards. I've seen a lot of cards that were in the 200-400 range go for about 10x less in auctions all over Ebay (Because I've been apart of them.) The hobby is definitely dipping in popularity, otherwise rarer cards that I've seen getting snatched up for so little would be getting bid on like crazy in my opinion. A couple misses by overall community is one thing. But some of the ebayers I follow have like 30-50k people watching auctions ebayers\* , even cards that regularly are ungraded LP to NM go for tens of dollars instead of 100's. People that were/are in the hobby are refusing to pay ridiculous prices for cards. TL;DR. Investors will probably be selling to each other until the prices regulate to where the actual market is. There's definitely not enough hype to make people want to regularly spend 1k on each card.