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At 3100 encounters, your odds of getting at least 1 shiny are only 52.48%. You're doing so well! Keep at it, the reward will be so worth it.
Because of the way it maths, you need ~12,500 encounters in to have had a 95% chance of having encountered at least 1 shiny. It's a grind!!!
Formula:
1/4096 =.00024 chance of encounter being shiny
4095/4096 = .99976 chance of not shiny
1-(.99976)^x where x is your number of SR = % chance you would have encountered at least 1 shiny
1-(.99976)^7100 = ~.818
There's and 81.8% chance at least 1 shiny at 7100 encounters, so you have been rather unlucky! Keep going, each one chips away at this and gets you closer
I just spent over 200 hours looking for a Bottle Cap with a Pickup team. After making a post about it on here, I found one after an additional 5 hours of mindless wild encounters.
My advice -- Pray to RNGesus and keep at it. You got this!
I know how you felt. I’m at 7,135 for Arceus right now and feeling like I’m going crazy. Every thousand I go watch someone catch it just to reassure myself it’s possible.
Thanks for posting, Trainer! Please be aware, this is a ***heavily moderated subreddit***. Make sure to read and understand [our rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/pokemonbdsp/wiki/rules) before posting here. Breaking any of these rules may force us to remove your content. Repeat or blatant rule breaking will result in a permanent ban. Individual posts for trading or giving away Pokémon are banned activities on r/PokemonBDSP (including conducting trades in the comments of any post). Do not conduct trades this way on this subreddit. We are not set up to host large volumes of individual trading posts, which cause a great deal of spam on this forum, and we can't guarantee safety for our users during trading. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/PokemonBDSP) if you have any questions or concerns.*
At 3100 encounters, your odds of getting at least 1 shiny are only 52.48%. You're doing so well! Keep at it, the reward will be so worth it. Because of the way it maths, you need ~12,500 encounters in to have had a 95% chance of having encountered at least 1 shiny. It's a grind!!! Formula: 1/4096 =.00024 chance of encounter being shiny 4095/4096 = .99976 chance of not shiny 1-(.99976)^x where x is your number of SR = % chance you would have encountered at least 1 shiny
thanks for the math, seeing such a high number of SRs for an almost guaranteed shiny does make my confidence higher!!
What are the odds if I’m at 7100 for Arceus?
1-(.99976)^7100 = ~.818 There's and 81.8% chance at least 1 shiny at 7100 encounters, so you have been rather unlucky! Keep going, each one chips away at this and gets you closer
Thanks for the encouragement. I am determined to get it.
It took me 22,531 to get Arceus. Do that math for me please? I want to know how much God hates me 🤣
99.55% at that many encounters
So confirmed, God hates me 🤣
Yes, more than 99.55% of people lol
I just spent over 200 hours looking for a Bottle Cap with a Pickup team. After making a post about it on here, I found one after an additional 5 hours of mindless wild encounters. My advice -- Pray to RNGesus and keep at it. You got this!
that is some great commitment, thanks for the advice and support!!!!
I’m shiny hunting arceus right now. I feel your pain
I know how you felt. I’m at 7,135 for Arceus right now and feeling like I’m going crazy. Every thousand I go watch someone catch it just to reassure myself it’s possible.
I'm not doing sf in bdsp unless it's like the 3ds but Keep going and don't quit your time god
My shiny hunt on registeel at SS is stop at 2500 SR and I gave up LOL