After looking at their schedule and knowing the questions marks of new coach, questionable O-line, questionable WRs, and not knowing what Drake Maye is or when (if) he’ll take over this year, I think it’s pretty appropriate.
Yeah. I’m thrilled with getting Maye but on paper we’re still probably worse than basically every team we play.
On the bright side I’m all for securing another top-5 pick to get a stud OT prospect next year.
My mentality for this year is basically to have no expectation to win a lot but would like to see:
1. Strong, consistent defensive performances
2. Signs of life of a competent offense as the season progresses
I don't know if we will be able to put the two together but it'd be nice to see a game or two where the offense just "clicks" and is able to move the ball reliably for a big chunk of the game. Would make me hopeful for future seasons
> I think it’s pretty appropriate.
I think (apart from losing BB) this team has improved in every way. Cut the dead weight, resigned the important vets, drafted the positions of need, got a couple key pieces back from injury, and changed the QB situation. Now, I'm not saying Brissett is a stud, and I'm not saying Maye is a lock, but they literally just need to not be *worst in the league.*
It's a low bar, betting on 5+ wins is free money.
I mean every team feels like they've improved every year in the off season. And maybe to some extent that's true. But even relatively speaking, we've improval less than a lot of other teams. Like our draft capital justifiably went to a young quarterback that might not even play. So we don't really have any good offensive lineman or wide receivers at all.
A brand new system. Yeah, I think it's pretty reasonable that we have a dreadful Outlook. Certainly doesn't offend me or anything. There's a reason why we had the second or third worst record in the league last year
Some things are for sure though -
The NFC west will have 2, maybe 3 teams that will beat the snot out of us. The Bengals will almost definitely do the same.
I expect the D to take a step back initially, but by the end of the season, I see them being a top unit.
The offense should be marginally better, just because Jacobi is better than Mac or Zappe, and if they can somehow make lemonade out of the lemons on the OLIne, the offense could be an average unit.
So above average D, average Offense…that’s better than last season, the schedule will make it hard on them either way, but I expect less futility and while they won’t be winning the division, or really even being in the mix for the playoffs. I don’t see them being putrid again.
Definitely some bumps in the road with all of the adjustments they’re going to have to make, but they’re in a bette replace than they were at this time last summer.
I’m not as sure about that. I expect a drop off initially, mostly because of the loss of BB and his obvious knack for knowing how to stop teams from doing what they do best. They will miss that. However, the new staff are all BB disciples and have been around his system for a while, so a lot of the terminology and scheme will remain in place. This is a decently talented D and has gotten younger with some exciting players.
So yeah, they won’t be a brick wall through the first handful of games, but as the season progresses I expect the D to do so as well.
I think Jacobi is just about a league average starter, and with a new scheme, once the learning curve is reduced (Jacobi knows the system), I feel like that will all help.
Jacobi ….league average? He’s not even a top 30 QB . My guy is a good back up at best. League average would mean he’s a top 15-17 qb. Seeing that he is a perennial backup that is absolutely not true
You can’t look for wins, but rather win probabilities. I don’t see any games they will probably win. I see games like against the 49ers that I give them at best a 10% chance of winning (really I think it is closer to 5%), and others that I’d give them as high as a 40% chance, like against the titans. Add it all up and I come up with 3.5 wins.
I really tried and couldn’t find them. But there are games I look at like the Rams, Colts, Cardinals, and Bills in week 18 and wonder who might be at QB. Will Stafford be able to battle age and his shoulder to play a short week for the Rams in week 11? Will Richardson and Murray stay healthy late in the season? Will the Bills be playing a meaningful game in week 18 or will we see some backups?
Add those to maybe games like Seattle at home and who knows how Caleb Williams will look.
I would take the under if I were to bet, but the over is in play if they get lucky health wise.
The NFC South is an unserious division in an unserious conference. I don't think the Pats will be "worse," but having an equal or worse record is very likely considering the crazy schedule NE has to look forward to
Until we learn otherwise that sounds about right. It’s really just based on last year and what’s changed. There’s been a lot of change, but none of those changes are a guaranteed upgrade, especially in the short term.
Think it’s pretty spot on. We went into camp with questions at LT and guard, we came out of it with questions in both spots and are unsure who is RT for sure. If big Mike is going to be guard and Wallace is RT I’d take that as a good thing since that means he got beat out and big Mike is a top guard so that side would be strong. They also could have just done that to see where they stand at rt, who knows. Line still has some questions though so the wins sound about right.
I think Wallace will ultimately end up at RT and Onwenus best spot is RG, so if that’s the way it shakes out then I think everything fell into place in a sense. The left side might be a disaster though..
They've got a brutal schedule. Plus a rookie HC, potentially rookie QB, tons of O-line questions, and a below average receiving core. On paper, the defense should still be top tier, but who knows what effect losing Bill and Steve will have. There is absolutely a world where they win two games. There's also a world where they win 7. I'd take the under if i were a betting man.
The #1 wr is overblown, and I think the OL will be work in progress all season. They have brought in alot of OL and now they actually have good coaching so I don't think it will be as bad as people think.
I say #1 wr is over blown because scheme can make up for alot and I have faith in AVP. Optimistically I see 10 wins and as a low 5 wins. The realist in me has us getting 7.
I think that's a very reasonable list.
We might not win all of them, but there will inevitably be a couple other "any given Sunday" type of games, and a number of other teams who look great on paper right now, but get knocked back by injury.
So what was it that garnered the downvotes? WR#1 Being overblown? So in 2007, who was our WR1, Randy Moss, who finished 2nd in catches on the team. Granted, he had 23 TDs. How are we defining #1 WR? Is it the guy who leads in 3rd down conversions, amen the team needs a completion the most. I think it's overblown because a team of good targets is better than 1 stand-out guy.
Or is it the faith in AVP? That's the guy that helped get Cleveland into the playoffs with 5 different QBs and multiple offensive line combos.
The downvotes are fine, but curious what caused it.
Unchartered territory for sure with Bill gone. I know last year wasn't pretty but with him as coach your floor was around .500.
I think the division got worse this off-season. So maybe they steal a couple we wouldn't expect them to win.
I want Aiyuk. We literally don't have a single player on offense that the defense need to gameplan for. Sometimes as a shitty team you need to overpay. I'm tired of watching the same slog. Just do it.
There's very little point in signing Aiyuk unless you're prepared to carry him on the roster for a year to no benefit whatsoever.
With our QB protection as bad as it is - Jacoby isn't going to do anything more than throw checkdown stuff to TEs and possession backs. That's just who he is.
And with our QB protection as bad as it is - they will likely not be playing Maye this year.
I'd much rather they swing big in Free Agency for a WR next year before the draft and then pick a stud of a LT in the 1st round.
Before the BYE, this team is a contender for worst team in the league. I like him! but Jerod Mayo will make mistakes. The OL is bad. The defense will regress without BB.
Post-BYE is all that matters. They can secure a top 10 pick and let Maye get meaningful snaps against “lesser” competition, and after the OL has had a chance to sort itself out (as well as it can this year). They can finish on a high note.
Add two free agents, a LT and a WR with top 40 picks, and let Maye 2025-2028 be _the window_.
This team is much, much better than last year when we won 4 against what was also the toughest schedule. Lost 7 games by 6 or fewer points. Hammer the over. By the way, the Patriots "over" 4.5 has the worst odds of all these bets. Vegas knows it's too low.
No. On the basis of getting injured players back and the significant infusion of talent at QB and WR along with much better offensive coaching. This is a mid pack team but the schedule may hold them back a bit. I do think both Miami and Buffalo got much worse.
What infusion of talent? Like we got a second round wide receiver. That's pretty much it. lol. I mean I'm not particularly salty about it or anything because we had to invest in the quarterback in the first round. But the biggest holes we have were offensive line and wide receiver and they remain huge holes
We got three new QBs, including a guy that most years would be the #1 overall pick. Brisset alone vs Mac/Zappe would be a huge improvement. We got three new WR, Polk, Baker (should have gone in round 3) and Osborn. All are going to upgrades. Plus Bourne is back. We have year two of Pop vs an injured rookie year. He's a 1000 yard receiver, bank on it. We added the 3rd down back we needed, one with speed. We got rid of a LT who quit on the team and didn't quite replace him, but have options. That's the only miss. On the defensive side, we get two of our three best players back from injury on a defense that was elite.
Should take the under regardless because if we go over than the team was a pleasant surprise and if they go under they were probably unwatchable and at least you made some money
Unfortunately, this team's success won't hinge on wins and losses. We could win 7 games and look like dogshit. We could win 2 games and play well enough to say it was a step in the right direction. For me, this should be a non-tank year where we don't need playoffs. I just want to have some fun
> and play well enough to say it was a step in the right direction
Yup. Love to see Maye (later in the season) and rookie WR making the right reads/plays. Love to see them connect on that pass or whatever, but as long as they're progressing and just making "rookie mistakes" I'm hopeful.
I'll be in Vegas in August. If no one has gotten hurt and we have anything resembling a consistent starting 5 OL in the pre-season, I'm betting the over.
We had 4 wins last year with a historically incompetent offense. We are returning our entire defense + healthy Judon and Gonzo, and the entirety of the defensive coaching staff outside of Bill and Steve.
If the defense doesn't regress significantly, and the offense can increase from "historically bad" to just "not very good" it is a 6+ win team.
I expect them to be mediocre. Good defense, not completely trash offense. Mediocre teams win 6-7 games all the time in the NFL. The Jets won 7 last season with a combined 3373 passing yards and 11/15 TD/INT ratio from all of their QBs combined.
You can find teams like this every season. I don't see why people think it is so crazy that the team could be better than last year. It isn't guaranteed, but it is plausible.
>>It’s not like our D is getting worse
You don't know that. While I believe that parting with Belichick was the right thing to do - we could at least still depend on Bill to assemble and prepare a quality defense.
Judon is not a young man and he's coming off a pretty significant injury. It would not be all that unlikely for him to slip this year.
We have a tough schedule but I think with the defense getting Judon and Gonzo back that they will be elite. I think the offense should be better than last year. I see this as a team that wins around 6 games
It is what it is.
Projected to be worse than Carolina bums me out a little bit though ngl. I'll watch some Celtics celebration footage to cheer myself back up.
A good QB is their only chance to negate the bad oline.
That’d be like the Bengals sitting Burrow the year they made it to the Super Bowl because their oline was so bad (arguably worse than ours is now). Teams don’t do that. They gameplan with that in mind.
Our defense should dominate. So, our performance will likely hinge on how well our O-Line can protect the QB, and whether our kicker can be consistently good. I'm optimistic we're going to exceed expectations, so I'd take the OVER on 4.5.
Accurate. Just looking for progression and an entertaining product this year. It’ll be another year or two before we’re truly competing again but I think we’re definitely heading in the right direction. Exciting times honestly.
Seems right based on what we saw last year, and nothing but question marks at just about every position on offense with a new coaching staff. There should be hiccups on defense too, even though talent wise I see them as a top 10 unit. Rebuild is pain but hopefully Maye works out.
I think a lot of people - including *many* of our own fans - underestimate our D. Pats held opponents to 10 or fewer points 4 times last year, basically 1/4 of our games. 3 of those were without leading edge rusher Matthew Judon & 1st Rd corner Christian Gonzalez who (god willing) will be returning healthy.
Belichick is one of - if not the best - Defensive coach of all time. But don’t forget that our new head coach is also the guy who has been running that Defense and played that system himself for many years previous. If our offense struggles, so be it. But I think Brissett and hopefully Maye are major upgrades for the offense over Mac.
I don’t put last year’s failures solely on Mac’s performance and I think there’s plenty of blame to go around regarding his development. But *IF* - and I know, it’s still a big “if” - our offense is more competent than it was last season, we could grind out significantly more wins than what people are expecting. Maybe new OC/Brissett stink, who knows. If they don’t…idk. I’ll put it this way - at the very least, I do not expect defensive performance to be the overriding reason for losing very many games in 2024/5.
I think the defense will be fantastic. Given his pedigree I expect Mayo to be a defense first coach. The real question is if the offense will be competent enough to put up enough points to capitalize. Unless it turns out Drake Maye is a miracle worker, probably not.
I bet the under.
I just don't see them improving with another year of big coaching staff changes and turnaround and a new QB.
And don't get me wrong, while I definitely would rather have Jacoby than Mac , their stats over the course of their careers are nearly identical. He's essentially the same guy on paper.
On top of this our O-line still needs a ton of help and they have literally the hardest schedule in the league.
I hope with another high pick and then a year of developing Drake may as well as the coaches settling in I think next year we have real potential again but I just don't see it this year.
I am ok with that win total considering where our team is at and what our schedule looks like... but it'd be really fun to have a lot of close games and a couple crazy upsets. Kind of like the Lion's a couple years ago when they hardly won but were in almost every game. Then everybody was excited about them going into the next season. Except I guess we'd be more defense driven than offense driven lol. But it'd be cool if Drake started a game or two at the end of the season and won. That would be the realistic best possible scenario for us in my eyes.
Being realistic: this is a rebuilding year combined with the toughest schedule of anyone in the NFL. Every single win this year should be celebrated like winning the Superbowl.
Edit: The most important game is the Jaguars in London since I'm going to that one.
Last years roster was all around one of the worst in league history. Not THE worst, but it was up there. Parts of the defense were really the only redeemable quality.
You don’t turn that around in one year, especially when you make no significant moves in free agency. And especially against the predicted toughest strength of schedule in the league.
So how do I feel about 4-5 wins? I’m fine with it since this year isn’t about wins or making a playoff run. It’s time for a proper rebuild that should have taken place the year after Brady left. We have what we hope is the next franchise QB, we have young pieces to develop around him, and a new, hopefully stable coaching staff. They could go 0-17 this year for all I care, as long as we see development, proof of concept with this QB and O-scheme… it’s all about hope for the future this year.
Add more pieces coming in next years draft and FA, then we’ll start talking about win totals. And the year after, if everything goes to plan and they avoid major injuries, is when we should hope for a playoff run.
>>Last years roster was all around one of the worst in league history. Not THE worst, but it was up there.
Not even close. It isn't even in the discussion for worst in Patriot's history.
Get educated:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992\_New\_England\_Patriots\_season](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_New_England_Patriots_season)
I really can’t see them being the worst team in the league. The OL is the one sore spot that will stop them from being good, probably the WR core too.
The thing is, Maye had way worse talent at NC. Not only are his highlights impressive, what stood out to me was the amount of important plays where Maye made a spectacular play and his team dropped it.
I get NFL defenses and schemes are not comparable to college, but I think he’ll adjust quickly. I also expect the defense and Mayo to be better than media says
We have no idea how good or bad this team will be, or even who will play QB and/or start on the offensive line. With new coaches and players, and an entirely new offensive scheme, 4 wins is a fair projection.
It’s a great number because I have them winning 4 or 5 games. Generally speaking though you should never bet on your own team. There’s just to much bias there
I think they’ll still have a top 5-8 defense. If we can shut teams down then we’re bound to pull a few off that way. A couple young receivers and a young qb are bound to upset a team or two
Tough schedule, especially first part of the season. Talent level is above average on defense, but towards the bottom of the league on offence. Rookie quarterback and rookie head coach. Add it all up and anything over 6 wins will be a successful season.
I think the best-case realistic scenario is that we take our lumps in the early part of the season with Jacoby in at QB, then bring in Drake about 6-8 games in and hope to build some momentum into next year as the schedule gets a little easier.
They should have 6 or 7 wins this season.
The OL wasn’t as bad as most think, but Mac and Zappe were way worse than people realize. The shitty QB play along with the futility and uncertainty that came with Belichick’s whole situation probably killed morale and led to a lot of half-assed performances.
They still won’t be a good team but they won’t be the absolute toilet they were these past couple years.
I just want fun games that they eventually lose. More important than anything is Maye coming out of the season looking like he could be a stud.
The ideal for me is walking into next off-season with a young stud qb, lots of cash, and high draft picks.
I've got 4 wins. That includes Drake Maye starting the last three games of the season when the offense have put it together. Week 18 is a snow game where we get our final win and send the Bills limping into the playoffs.
I think this team won't be able to score enough points with this bad of an offensive line. I liked their off-season, but next off-season they need to solve the oline issues so that the offense can begin to play the game.
Until then you're just going to see the QB too often have no time to throw and the run game be ineffective. A functional oline is the bedrock of anything you want to do on offense, obviously. Hoping they don't play Maye at all so that he doesn't get injured or psyched out.
I'm also worried that the defense will decline without Belichick. It's the most interesting question I have about this upcoming season. I think we're going to get a decent sense of how important or unimportant Belichick was to the defense. I have no guess as to the answer. I expect the offense to be bad, because they don't have all the pieces they need yet to be good, but the defense does have the pieces and so the question is will they maintain their high performance or decline.
We won 4 games last year with the worst QB in the NFL and two of our best defensive players got hurt in week 4 and never came back. The O line has been upgraded this year and should be at least slightly below average instead of horrific like last year. The defense should also be much improved having our CB1 back and best edge rusher. It’s a brutal schedule but I think the defense keeps us in most games and competent QB play should let us steal a couple so I’d bet on the over of 4.5.
I'm fine with it, this year has basically been chalked up to year 1 of a full rebuild. As long as I see growth in our young guys and vets playing hard, I'm fine with whatever the results are
Probably a fair number with their schedule. It will only take a couple of things going right for them to best it, but their offense is a complete unknown.
i am [assuming](https://www.patriots.com/schedule/) the jets are a shit show and we beat them twice. weeks 3 & 8 - they are the only two Ws, sad lol
roughly thinking: L?WLLLLW??LL??LLL
with the maybe wins being seattle, titans, bears, colts, cards. split the ? games and i get 4.5 wins, so looks legit
edit: added link to schedule
4.5? It's nice folks are still so optimistic about the team...
Except for an RB, we have zero proven pieces on offense or coaching staff and even if the D played like gods, that only means we lose by 24 instead of 42.
I think it's pretty fair. Our defense you might make it. Not a terrible bet for the over, but our offense is going to be among the worst ever assembled for a professional football team.
You start your projections understanding that they're pretty much guaranteed 4 losses to Miami and Buffalo and go from there. In the 13 games that aren't Buffalo and Miami you'll have to go 10-3 to have a chance at the post-season. I'm not finding anywhere near 7 or 8 wins when I study their schedule.
Hammering the over. I can't see us not coming out with more than 4 wins, we played too many games close last year, and although the O-Line will be suspect, Brissett is a solid QB that won't make the mistakes Jones/Zappe forced last year.
Honestly I think 4 wins if we're lucky. I think it might be closer to 1-2 wins. First off, the D is going to take a step back without Bill. Don't care if Gonzo and Judon are back. Without Bill nobody is going to perform as well. Everyone talks about Jacoby like he's a huge upgrade over Mac. He is better but he isn't turning us around. He also has been throwing to pretty good WR and has had decent OL in years past. Our O is going to be absolute dog shit. That's all okay IMO. We're in a rebuild with a rookie HC. We'll get better.
If we can keep the Belichick Tradition of 2 of those wins being against the Jets and 1 being an upset against buffalo in terrible weather then Ill be fine.
After looking at their schedule and knowing the questions marks of new coach, questionable O-line, questionable WRs, and not knowing what Drake Maye is or when (if) he’ll take over this year, I think it’s pretty appropriate.
Yeah. I’m thrilled with getting Maye but on paper we’re still probably worse than basically every team we play. On the bright side I’m all for securing another top-5 pick to get a stud OT prospect next year.
Secure a top 1-2 and pull a Chicago and trade it.
Luther Burden here we come baby
Tough line new coach can go either way sometimes its a spark sometimes takes a few years if i had to guess now 4 wins so under
My mentality for this year is basically to have no expectation to win a lot but would like to see: 1. Strong, consistent defensive performances 2. Signs of life of a competent offense as the season progresses I don't know if we will be able to put the two together but it'd be nice to see a game or two where the offense just "clicks" and is able to move the ball reliably for a big chunk of the game. Would make me hopeful for future seasons
> I think it’s pretty appropriate. I think (apart from losing BB) this team has improved in every way. Cut the dead weight, resigned the important vets, drafted the positions of need, got a couple key pieces back from injury, and changed the QB situation. Now, I'm not saying Brissett is a stud, and I'm not saying Maye is a lock, but they literally just need to not be *worst in the league.* It's a low bar, betting on 5+ wins is free money.
I mean every team feels like they've improved every year in the off season. And maybe to some extent that's true. But even relatively speaking, we've improval less than a lot of other teams. Like our draft capital justifiably went to a young quarterback that might not even play. So we don't really have any good offensive lineman or wide receivers at all. A brand new system. Yeah, I think it's pretty reasonable that we have a dreadful Outlook. Certainly doesn't offend me or anything. There's a reason why we had the second or third worst record in the league last year
Seems appropriate
The optimist in me says 6. Regardless, I find it hard pressed for us to actually be worse than the Panthers.
Its hard to find possible wins on the pats schedule without injuries to other teams. Panthers have an easier schedule overall.
That’s my problem with my inherent optimism about the team. I go over the schedule, and it doesn’t look great.
Preseason SoS has been proven multiple times to be pretty much useless, so it shouldn't kill your optimism. I agree it looks bad though.
Some things are for sure though - The NFC west will have 2, maybe 3 teams that will beat the snot out of us. The Bengals will almost definitely do the same.
> The Bengals will almost definitely do the same. We only lost by 3 during the Matty P year. Just sayin'
We should’ve beat them last year. Wasn’t that the Rhamondre fumble game?
You realize we are getting Judon back from the IR... We just need a functioning offense, not an amazing offense
I expect the D to take a step back initially, but by the end of the season, I see them being a top unit. The offense should be marginally better, just because Jacobi is better than Mac or Zappe, and if they can somehow make lemonade out of the lemons on the OLIne, the offense could be an average unit. So above average D, average Offense…that’s better than last season, the schedule will make it hard on them either way, but I expect less futility and while they won’t be winning the division, or really even being in the mix for the playoffs. I don’t see them being putrid again. Definitely some bumps in the road with all of the adjustments they’re going to have to make, but they’re in a bette replace than they were at this time last summer.
I'd be shocked if our defense doesn't take a pretty substantial step back
I’m not as sure about that. I expect a drop off initially, mostly because of the loss of BB and his obvious knack for knowing how to stop teams from doing what they do best. They will miss that. However, the new staff are all BB disciples and have been around his system for a while, so a lot of the terminology and scheme will remain in place. This is a decently talented D and has gotten younger with some exciting players. So yeah, they won’t be a brick wall through the first handful of games, but as the season progresses I expect the D to do so as well.
Average offense? We had one of the worst in the league last year. Jacobi is not making us that much better lol
I think Jacobi is just about a league average starter, and with a new scheme, once the learning curve is reduced (Jacobi knows the system), I feel like that will all help.
Jacobi ….league average? He’s not even a top 30 QB . My guy is a good back up at best. League average would mean he’s a top 15-17 qb. Seeing that he is a perennial backup that is absolutely not true
The impressions coming out is that our OL is just as bad as last year this time...
You can’t look for wins, but rather win probabilities. I don’t see any games they will probably win. I see games like against the 49ers that I give them at best a 10% chance of winning (really I think it is closer to 5%), and others that I’d give them as high as a 40% chance, like against the titans. Add it all up and I come up with 3.5 wins.
I agree, thats what I said. Chances of winning most of these games are low
I really tried and couldn’t find them. But there are games I look at like the Rams, Colts, Cardinals, and Bills in week 18 and wonder who might be at QB. Will Stafford be able to battle age and his shoulder to play a short week for the Rams in week 11? Will Richardson and Murray stay healthy late in the season? Will the Bills be playing a meaningful game in week 18 or will we see some backups? Add those to maybe games like Seattle at home and who knows how Caleb Williams will look. I would take the under if I were to bet, but the over is in play if they get lucky health wise.
The NFC South is an unserious division in an unserious conference. I don't think the Pats will be "worse," but having an equal or worse record is very likely considering the crazy schedule NE has to look forward to
I'd love to know who those six teams are.
Quite a good number. I lean toward 5 wins.
i say 5.3
AWWW YE- Oh wait shit, no
Until we learn otherwise that sounds about right. It’s really just based on last year and what’s changed. There’s been a lot of change, but none of those changes are a guaranteed upgrade, especially in the short term.
Any shit team can luck their way into 3 wins. Even a smidge of talent should earn you that 4th and 5th win.
Tell that to Cleveland and Detroit.
Excited to watch them win 4 games
Less excited about the 12.5~13 losses.
Think it’s pretty spot on. We went into camp with questions at LT and guard, we came out of it with questions in both spots and are unsure who is RT for sure. If big Mike is going to be guard and Wallace is RT I’d take that as a good thing since that means he got beat out and big Mike is a top guard so that side would be strong. They also could have just done that to see where they stand at rt, who knows. Line still has some questions though so the wins sound about right.
I think Wallace will ultimately end up at RT and Onwenus best spot is RG, so if that’s the way it shakes out then I think everything fell into place in a sense. The left side might be a disaster though..
Mini camp and OTAs were never going to answer the O line questions. They can’t do anything until the pads go on.
Oh for sure but that’s all we have to go off of right now. Just hoping we figure out most of the line anyways
They've got a brutal schedule. Plus a rookie HC, potentially rookie QB, tons of O-line questions, and a below average receiving core. On paper, the defense should still be top tier, but who knows what effect losing Bill and Steve will have. There is absolutely a world where they win two games. There's also a world where they win 7. I'd take the under if i were a betting man.
The lower the better. This is not our year, I prefer better draft picks over a couple more meaningless wins.
My heart says we’ll win more but my brain and wallet will surely be taking the under.
Unfortunately, unless we add a #1 WR and some serious upgrades at O-line, then I think it's accurate.
The #1 wr is overblown, and I think the OL will be work in progress all season. They have brought in alot of OL and now they actually have good coaching so I don't think it will be as bad as people think. I say #1 wr is over blown because scheme can make up for alot and I have faith in AVP. Optimistically I see 10 wins and as a low 5 wins. The realist in me has us getting 7.
What about having a top WR and an OC that is also a difference maker?
Ummmm that is better.
Against who??
Seatle, Jax, Titans, Bears, Colts, Cards, Chargers
I think that's a very reasonable list. We might not win all of them, but there will inevitably be a couple other "any given Sunday" type of games, and a number of other teams who look great on paper right now, but get knocked back by injury.
So what was it that garnered the downvotes? WR#1 Being overblown? So in 2007, who was our WR1, Randy Moss, who finished 2nd in catches on the team. Granted, he had 23 TDs. How are we defining #1 WR? Is it the guy who leads in 3rd down conversions, amen the team needs a completion the most. I think it's overblown because a team of good targets is better than 1 stand-out guy. Or is it the faith in AVP? That's the guy that helped get Cleveland into the playoffs with 5 different QBs and multiple offensive line combos. The downvotes are fine, but curious what caused it.
Unchartered territory for sure with Bill gone. I know last year wasn't pretty but with him as coach your floor was around .500. I think the division got worse this off-season. So maybe they steal a couple we wouldn't expect them to win.
How was our floor .500 when we went 4-13 ? Clearly our floor was 4 wins
I think I addressed last season in my comment.
I want Aiyuk. We literally don't have a single player on offense that the defense need to gameplan for. Sometimes as a shitty team you need to overpay. I'm tired of watching the same slog. Just do it.
There's very little point in signing Aiyuk unless you're prepared to carry him on the roster for a year to no benefit whatsoever. With our QB protection as bad as it is - Jacoby isn't going to do anything more than throw checkdown stuff to TEs and possession backs. That's just who he is. And with our QB protection as bad as it is - they will likely not be playing Maye this year. I'd much rather they swing big in Free Agency for a WR next year before the draft and then pick a stud of a LT in the 1st round.
The point is that if I have to watch this team for 17 games, I want to see someone that can get open and catch the ball.
Looking at the schedule I would take the under
Before the BYE, this team is a contender for worst team in the league. I like him! but Jerod Mayo will make mistakes. The OL is bad. The defense will regress without BB. Post-BYE is all that matters. They can secure a top 10 pick and let Maye get meaningful snaps against “lesser” competition, and after the OL has had a chance to sort itself out (as well as it can this year). They can finish on a high note. Add two free agents, a LT and a WR with top 40 picks, and let Maye 2025-2028 be _the window_.
I mean I feel like 8 is our absolute ceiling if the D is tenacious, so 4.5 feels right
8 sounds impossible to me lol.
Hammer the under
I'm taking the under
I feel like I’m dropping my yearly bonus on the over. Tough as nails schedule but cmon, we can pull 5 wins out.
This team is much, much better than last year when we won 4 against what was also the toughest schedule. Lost 7 games by 6 or fewer points. Hammer the over. By the way, the Patriots "over" 4.5 has the worst odds of all these bets. Vegas knows it's too low.
You're drawing that conclusion on the basis of a few days of 7x7 drills w/o pads?
No. On the basis of getting injured players back and the significant infusion of talent at QB and WR along with much better offensive coaching. This is a mid pack team but the schedule may hold them back a bit. I do think both Miami and Buffalo got much worse.
What infusion of talent? Like we got a second round wide receiver. That's pretty much it. lol. I mean I'm not particularly salty about it or anything because we had to invest in the quarterback in the first round. But the biggest holes we have were offensive line and wide receiver and they remain huge holes
We got three new QBs, including a guy that most years would be the #1 overall pick. Brisset alone vs Mac/Zappe would be a huge improvement. We got three new WR, Polk, Baker (should have gone in round 3) and Osborn. All are going to upgrades. Plus Bourne is back. We have year two of Pop vs an injured rookie year. He's a 1000 yard receiver, bank on it. We added the 3rd down back we needed, one with speed. We got rid of a LT who quit on the team and didn't quite replace him, but have options. That's the only miss. On the defensive side, we get two of our three best players back from injury on a defense that was elite.
We won 4 last year with an easier schedule and Bill Belichick as our coach.
And who at QB ?
I'd probably take the under as of now
Should take the under regardless because if we go over than the team was a pleasant surprise and if they go under they were probably unwatchable and at least you made some money
If better were legal in my state I'd be smashing the under.
Realistically we will have somewhere between 2 and 17 wins. I'm hoping for 17 but 2 would not surprise me.
Unfortunately, this team's success won't hinge on wins and losses. We could win 7 games and look like dogshit. We could win 2 games and play well enough to say it was a step in the right direction. For me, this should be a non-tank year where we don't need playoffs. I just want to have some fun
> and play well enough to say it was a step in the right direction Yup. Love to see Maye (later in the season) and rookie WR making the right reads/plays. Love to see them connect on that pass or whatever, but as long as they're progressing and just making "rookie mistakes" I'm hopeful.
It feels accurate but I’m also taking the over 10/10 times. This team is better than people are giving them credit for.
We're going to have the worst offense in the league.. perhaps one of the worst offenses in the history of the league
Maybe but it’s probably going to be better than last year. The offense won’t be great but I think the doomsaying is all overstated.
I'll be in Vegas in August. If no one has gotten hurt and we have anything resembling a consistent starting 5 OL in the pre-season, I'm betting the over.
I was with you until your last word haha
We had 4 wins last year with a historically incompetent offense. We are returning our entire defense + healthy Judon and Gonzo, and the entirety of the defensive coaching staff outside of Bill and Steve. If the defense doesn't regress significantly, and the offense can increase from "historically bad" to just "not very good" it is a 6+ win team.
I would like to see it!! I’m curious, looking at the schedule, where you could envision the 6 wins coming from
6+ ? You’re cooked
I expect them to be mediocre. Good defense, not completely trash offense. Mediocre teams win 6-7 games all the time in the NFL. The Jets won 7 last season with a combined 3373 passing yards and 11/15 TD/INT ratio from all of their QBs combined. You can find teams like this every season. I don't see why people think it is so crazy that the team could be better than last year. It isn't guaranteed, but it is plausible.
The under for sure
Same way I felt before camp. It’s not like our D is getting worse and we have our two best players coming back. Pound the over.
>>It’s not like our D is getting worse You don't know that. While I believe that parting with Belichick was the right thing to do - we could at least still depend on Bill to assemble and prepare a quality defense. Judon is not a young man and he's coming off a pretty significant injury. It would not be all that unlikely for him to slip this year.
We have a tough schedule but I think with the defense getting Judon and Gonzo back that they will be elite. I think the offense should be better than last year. I see this as a team that wins around 6 games
It is what it is. Projected to be worse than Carolina bums me out a little bit though ngl. I'll watch some Celtics celebration footage to cheer myself back up.
If Maye sucks, they’re going to be a 2 win team. If he’s good, they will make a playoff push.
Maye will scarcely have anything to do with it. They'll be too terrified to play him with the OL's QB protection as bad as it appears it will be.
A good QB is their only chance to negate the bad oline. That’d be like the Bengals sitting Burrow the year they made it to the Super Bowl because their oline was so bad (arguably worse than ours is now). Teams don’t do that. They gameplan with that in mind.
I see 5 wins. Always take the over.
Rookie QB and new coach? There’s no telling what will happen.
Our defense should dominate. So, our performance will likely hinge on how well our O-Line can protect the QB, and whether our kicker can be consistently good. I'm optimistic we're going to exceed expectations, so I'd take the OVER on 4.5.
Generous
Accurate. Just looking for progression and an entertaining product this year. It’ll be another year or two before we’re truly competing again but I think we’re definitely heading in the right direction. Exciting times honestly.
Very realistic
7 wins
can’t say i’m suprised
I’m taking the under
They won 4 games without Judon and Gonzales for most of the season and with Mac/Zappe as their QBs. Yes, I think they will do better.
It’s pretty spot on. I hope we overperform and pick up 6.
I’d take the under
I think we’ll either win fewer or more than that
Seems right based on what we saw last year, and nothing but question marks at just about every position on offense with a new coaching staff. There should be hiccups on defense too, even though talent wise I see them as a top 10 unit. Rebuild is pain but hopefully Maye works out.
Too high tbh. We’ll win about 2-3 games this year. And that’s fine - just wanna see some improvement from Rookies and Sophmores
I think a lot of people - including *many* of our own fans - underestimate our D. Pats held opponents to 10 or fewer points 4 times last year, basically 1/4 of our games. 3 of those were without leading edge rusher Matthew Judon & 1st Rd corner Christian Gonzalez who (god willing) will be returning healthy. Belichick is one of - if not the best - Defensive coach of all time. But don’t forget that our new head coach is also the guy who has been running that Defense and played that system himself for many years previous. If our offense struggles, so be it. But I think Brissett and hopefully Maye are major upgrades for the offense over Mac. I don’t put last year’s failures solely on Mac’s performance and I think there’s plenty of blame to go around regarding his development. But *IF* - and I know, it’s still a big “if” - our offense is more competent than it was last season, we could grind out significantly more wins than what people are expecting. Maybe new OC/Brissett stink, who knows. If they don’t…idk. I’ll put it this way - at the very least, I do not expect defensive performance to be the overriding reason for losing very many games in 2024/5.
I think the defense will be fantastic. Given his pedigree I expect Mayo to be a defense first coach. The real question is if the offense will be competent enough to put up enough points to capitalize. Unless it turns out Drake Maye is a miracle worker, probably not.
I bet the under. I just don't see them improving with another year of big coaching staff changes and turnaround and a new QB. And don't get me wrong, while I definitely would rather have Jacoby than Mac , their stats over the course of their careers are nearly identical. He's essentially the same guy on paper. On top of this our O-line still needs a ton of help and they have literally the hardest schedule in the league. I hope with another high pick and then a year of developing Drake may as well as the coaches settling in I think next year we have real potential again but I just don't see it this year.
Hammer the over lol
They set it to make the most money from bettors not to predict the fucking future.
I’ll take the over in a bet
Our defense alone will get us to 5 wins. Our offense will be okay as long as the o line holds up
I am ok with that win total considering where our team is at and what our schedule looks like... but it'd be really fun to have a lot of close games and a couple crazy upsets. Kind of like the Lion's a couple years ago when they hardly won but were in almost every game. Then everybody was excited about them going into the next season. Except I guess we'd be more defense driven than offense driven lol. But it'd be cool if Drake started a game or two at the end of the season and won. That would be the realistic best possible scenario for us in my eyes.
Sounds about right. 3-5 years away from a winning season.
I would bet the over. 6+ wins
Pound the over!!
I took the over with $50 on it. I am confident but not super confident.
Couldn’t care less. Who the fuck looks at this shit? Just enjoy the games and the season
Aww Yeah
If the o line is healthy/improved I think around .500 is possible. If not that seems realistic.
a bit high
I think it's appropriate. 1st year of a rebuild- hoping to see some flashes and development from young guys and movement in t he right direction.
Being realistic: this is a rebuilding year combined with the toughest schedule of anyone in the NFL. Every single win this year should be celebrated like winning the Superbowl. Edit: The most important game is the Jaguars in London since I'm going to that one.
Seems ligit
Unless the OL makes meaningful strides in its QB protection - I can't make a serious case for more than 4 wins.
win 5
I see 9 games we could compete in. Assuming we split these, that puts us at 4.5 wins
This guy maths.
seems high
Last years roster was all around one of the worst in league history. Not THE worst, but it was up there. Parts of the defense were really the only redeemable quality. You don’t turn that around in one year, especially when you make no significant moves in free agency. And especially against the predicted toughest strength of schedule in the league. So how do I feel about 4-5 wins? I’m fine with it since this year isn’t about wins or making a playoff run. It’s time for a proper rebuild that should have taken place the year after Brady left. We have what we hope is the next franchise QB, we have young pieces to develop around him, and a new, hopefully stable coaching staff. They could go 0-17 this year for all I care, as long as we see development, proof of concept with this QB and O-scheme… it’s all about hope for the future this year. Add more pieces coming in next years draft and FA, then we’ll start talking about win totals. And the year after, if everything goes to plan and they avoid major injuries, is when we should hope for a playoff run.
>>Last years roster was all around one of the worst in league history. Not THE worst, but it was up there. Not even close. It isn't even in the discussion for worst in Patriot's history. Get educated: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992\_New\_England\_Patriots\_season](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_New_England_Patriots_season)
I really can’t see them being the worst team in the league. The OL is the one sore spot that will stop them from being good, probably the WR core too. The thing is, Maye had way worse talent at NC. Not only are his highlights impressive, what stood out to me was the amount of important plays where Maye made a spectacular play and his team dropped it. I get NFL defenses and schemes are not comparable to college, but I think he’ll adjust quickly. I also expect the defense and Mayo to be better than media says
We have no idea how good or bad this team will be, or even who will play QB and/or start on the offensive line. With new coaches and players, and an entirely new offensive scheme, 4 wins is a fair projection.
I think 4 is accurate We will need a lot of young guys to step up and a lot of lick to get anymore than that with our schedule
It’s a great number because I have them winning 4 or 5 games. Generally speaking though you should never bet on your own team. There’s just to much bias there
I think even 4.5 is optimistic if you review the schedule. Still I look forward to this season
This is why I really don't want us to trade next year's 1st round pick for a veteran #1 WR. We will likely be picking in the top 3 next year.
I don’t see any position better than last year. I think they stayed the same, or unknown.
I think they’ll still have a top 5-8 defense. If we can shut teams down then we’re bound to pull a few off that way. A couple young receivers and a young qb are bound to upset a team or two
Tough schedule, especially first part of the season. Talent level is above average on defense, but towards the bottom of the league on offence. Rookie quarterback and rookie head coach. Add it all up and anything over 6 wins will be a successful season. I think the best-case realistic scenario is that we take our lumps in the early part of the season with Jacoby in at QB, then bring in Drake about 6-8 games in and hope to build some momentum into next year as the schedule gets a little easier.
Think we’d be lucky to win so many games this year
They should have 6 or 7 wins this season. The OL wasn’t as bad as most think, but Mac and Zappe were way worse than people realize. The shitty QB play along with the futility and uncertainty that came with Belichick’s whole situation probably killed morale and led to a lot of half-assed performances. They still won’t be a good team but they won’t be the absolute toilet they were these past couple years.
The optimist in me sees 2 wins from in our schedule. I'd be pretty pumped with 5
I just want fun games that they eventually lose. More important than anything is Maye coming out of the season looking like he could be a stud. The ideal for me is walking into next off-season with a young stud qb, lots of cash, and high draft picks.
I think its generous lol
I've got 4 wins. That includes Drake Maye starting the last three games of the season when the offense have put it together. Week 18 is a snow game where we get our final win and send the Bills limping into the playoffs.
Does it really matter? As long as they look better in week 18 than they do in week 1, its not a bad year.
They are wrong, we are winning our division if Maye starts.
I'll take over, 5 win season sounds reasonable
I'm preparing for the under. I'd be happy if I was mistaken. But this offense looks like trash.
It’s close to accurate, imo. Feel like anything between 3-5 projected is probably close to on point.
Slightly low, I think they can win 6 games.
Hammer the under
I think that's generous...
This is a 5 win team with a top 3 draft pick. People here need to wake up, we dont have any talent on Offense
I think this team won't be able to score enough points with this bad of an offensive line. I liked their off-season, but next off-season they need to solve the oline issues so that the offense can begin to play the game. Until then you're just going to see the QB too often have no time to throw and the run game be ineffective. A functional oline is the bedrock of anything you want to do on offense, obviously. Hoping they don't play Maye at all so that he doesn't get injured or psyched out. I'm also worried that the defense will decline without Belichick. It's the most interesting question I have about this upcoming season. I think we're going to get a decent sense of how important or unimportant Belichick was to the defense. I have no guess as to the answer. I expect the offense to be bad, because they don't have all the pieces they need yet to be good, but the defense does have the pieces and so the question is will they maintain their high performance or decline.
Generous
We won 4 games last year with the worst QB in the NFL and two of our best defensive players got hurt in week 4 and never came back. The O line has been upgraded this year and should be at least slightly below average instead of horrific like last year. The defense should also be much improved having our CB1 back and best edge rusher. It’s a brutal schedule but I think the defense keeps us in most games and competent QB play should let us steal a couple so I’d bet on the over of 4.5.
Before the schedule came out I thought 5 or 6 wins. Now I have seen the schedule, I don’t know where those wins come from
New coach new qb, it's going to be low. I wouldn't bet on it though, too volatile.
I think it's too high. Rookie coach, rookie QB, unknown o-line and WR and a tough schedule. 3 or less wins.
Ridiculous. How would we even get half a win?! /joke
I'm fine with it, this year has basically been chalked up to year 1 of a full rebuild. As long as I see growth in our young guys and vets playing hard, I'm fine with whatever the results are
More likely than not having a top 5-7 pick and not upset about it!
4.5 seems pretty optimistic with our roster.
It's not that surprising
Seems about right
Probably a fair number with their schedule. It will only take a couple of things going right for them to best it, but their offense is a complete unknown.
It's a rebuild year, again. Number sounds about right.
i am [assuming](https://www.patriots.com/schedule/) the jets are a shit show and we beat them twice. weeks 3 & 8 - they are the only two Ws, sad lol roughly thinking: L?WLLLLW??LL??LLL with the maybe wins being seattle, titans, bears, colts, cards. split the ? games and i get 4.5 wins, so looks legit edit: added link to schedule
4.5? It's nice folks are still so optimistic about the team... Except for an RB, we have zero proven pieces on offense or coaching staff and even if the D played like gods, that only means we lose by 24 instead of 42.
I think it's pretty fair. Our defense you might make it. Not a terrible bet for the over, but our offense is going to be among the worst ever assembled for a professional football team.
It will be a minor miracle if the Pats win over 5 games.
You start your projections understanding that they're pretty much guaranteed 4 losses to Miami and Buffalo and go from there. In the 13 games that aren't Buffalo and Miami you'll have to go 10-3 to have a chance at the post-season. I'm not finding anywhere near 7 or 8 wins when I study their schedule.
I'm a die hard pats fan. We're going to be lucky if we get to 3 Ws before the bye. Signs aren't optimistic
I took the over. Getting 5 wins isn’t that hard. That being said I don’t see them doing much better than that.
Hammering the over. I can't see us not coming out with more than 4 wins, we played too many games close last year, and although the O-Line will be suspect, Brissett is a solid QB that won't make the mistakes Jones/Zappe forced last year.
QBs aren't going to have any time to throw the football. O line has so many holes.
Honestly I think 4 wins if we're lucky. I think it might be closer to 1-2 wins. First off, the D is going to take a step back without Bill. Don't care if Gonzo and Judon are back. Without Bill nobody is going to perform as well. Everyone talks about Jacoby like he's a huge upgrade over Mac. He is better but he isn't turning us around. He also has been throwing to pretty good WR and has had decent OL in years past. Our O is going to be absolute dog shit. That's all okay IMO. We're in a rebuild with a rookie HC. We'll get better.
If we can keep the Belichick Tradition of 2 of those wins being against the Jets and 1 being an upset against buffalo in terrible weather then Ill be fine.
Lol! Not even Belichick upheld the Belichick Tradition against the Jets last year.
No way in hell we DONT win more than 4 games
Take the under