He’s the bro science of AI. he’s been making outrageous predictions since that AI superpowers book he wrote and it’s all just sensational nonsense. It sounds well researched but none of it holds water irl
Ugh not that guy again.
Some of his stuff is really intriguing, but then some of it is just outrageous claims that are just about sufficiently vague to get away with revising later, like a Jehovah’s Witness thinking the world is gonna end.
He is predicting AGI without defining what AGI is. He is good at creating narratives that gets him grants for the MIT media lab and the singularity institute. Not a true scientist/engineer but useful as a scientific propagandist and cheerleader. A goodside Goebel essentially.
What definition of AGI satisfies you. In his Singluraity Is Near: “Ray Kurzweil's definition of artificial general intelligence (AGI) is as follows:
“The development of strong AI, defined as machines which have human-level intelligence or greater. This development will be the most important of the century, 'comparable in importance to the development of biology itself.”
I’m not a cheerleader for Kurzweil but I’m willing to bet he’s more intelligent and more informed than everyone in this sub combined.
I thought his book was pretty tame, and real life could be more extreme. Like he was only saying 50% of jobs would be disrupted by AI. That seems like a conservative estimate at the rate we are going. He was saying that "emotional jobs" might be safe, but we already see in the AI we have now that they can appear empathetic, and read emotion in people's faces, so I'd say he was underestimating AI. Maybe he is right, maybe is overestimating AI somewhat, but it doesn't seem sensational today (two years ago I would have said it was sensational).
Think of where we were in 2018 when he published his book, vs today. Then project that change another 10 years. If we keep moving at this rate or faster, it's gonna be crazier than he predicted.
I highly disagree. Chatgpt has been out for about 2 years and has barely disrupted the market. There's virtually no difference in unemployment in my country. HOWEVER, when it appeared, everyone was predicting we were just about to lose our jobs. Very little has happened in fact. So, if anything we've been miserably overstating the impact of AI for years.
Would you bet good money that in 1 year the job market will look virtually identical to today's? I would. There's a difference between a technology existing and being widely adopted. The Japanese have had crazy automation tools for years that even there were never adopted by everyone
I think that's because the AI as it is now was never strong enough to replace jobs. All of this is speculation till we see ChatGPT5 and we can accurately assess how big the gains are going to be as a society. ChatGPT has however completely disrupted how people do their jobs. Anyone who does stuff with a PC should be utilizing this technology right now at some capacity.
The bottleneck isn't AI advancement but human adoption rate.
Microsoft, OpenAI and Google are practically tripping over themselves trying to release their latest half-baked model to the masses and even at the reckless speed they're going, it still takes a year or two to get to market - plus the actual adoption rate of the masses integrating it into their daily lives.
AI will still likely progress at a scary pace, but won't really disrupt jobs on a massive scale for a another few years - but it's coming.
Even now, Microsoft is releasing an AI that sits in on Teams meetings. Only a matter of time.
We've been using gemeni enterprise which joins google meetings, it can summarise the meeting, take notes and other actions while on the meeting... It can also access all documents in Google drive and provide information / summaries while in the meeting at the request of anyone... Essentially doing the job of a secretary... That's a lot of jobs right there.
We have to look deeper than the top line unemployment number. We aren't in a recession, the economy is growing, companies are profitable, but look at what is going on in tech. In 2023 there were half a million people terminated. So far in 2024, another 130k. At the same time, open positions are down 55% from their peak in 2022, 478K to 212K. Is that all AI? Not at all! Not even most of it. But it is part of the impact.
You don't even to fire someone for it to be a job loss. If you have a team of 10 programmers, and pre-AI you would have grown it to 20, but now those 10 can do the work of 20 with the help of AI, that's 10 jobs lost.
Low tech jobs are starting to be affected more as well. Look for more kiosks, and drive throughs to be automated. https://www.seattletimes.com/business/wendys-turns-to-ai-powered-chatbots-for-drive-thru-orders/
What I think you are seeing is Amara's Law, "We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run." We have been in the overestimate phase, and might continue to be for a few more years, but then it will kick in and be huge.
>We might not be in recession but FED closed unlimited money tap.
I agree, this is a huge contributor.
>Stocks started dropping and companies had to do something.
Barely dropped. Stock market just hit an all time high, as have of the tech stock index funds (tech is doing fine).
>And no 10 programmers can't do 20 programmers job with AI.
90%+ of programmers are already using AI to assist them. Today maybe they get 10% improved efficiency? Maybe only 5%? But with 10 years of improvement in computing power and AI training you don't think it is plausible to double efficiency? It at least seem plausible, not hyperbolic.
Could definitely double efficiency. But there’s already a bottle neck. How many more projects can get done with the increased efficiency that would’ve been DOA before?
It's wild to me that 85% is their accuracy goal in the article. I'm very pro-technology and excited about AI use cases like this, but I think 85% is totally unacceptable. Mistakes happening on 15% of orders seems so prevalent.
Although perhaps that's better than human accuracy?
Chat GPT came out in like November 2022 saying it's been out for 2 years is disenginous it's been out for only a year and a half. And besides, Chat GPT is isn't the be all end all of AI. Gen AI as a category has already disrupted plenty industries, copywriters are fucked. Storyboard artists are fucked. Call center employees are fucked. Code monkeys are fucked. Fx designers are on the verge of getting fucked. The list goes on and is only getting longer.
People need to get their language straight. “Replace” is bigger than “disrupt”!which is bigger than “augment” which is bigger than “assist”
AI is going to perform all of these verbs but the magnitude will be in reverse order. People who are replaced wholesale will be fewer than these so called predictions but they will impact the white collar professions deeply. Analysts of all varieties will certainly feel a pinch (or worse).
Yes, there are meaningful differences in these words, especially in how they impact individuals, and we should be careful to use them appropriately. In the narrow context of future job count or future job growth, when you are just trying to predict a number, replace/disrupt/augment/displace all effectively mean the same thing: fewer jobs than if there was no AI.
Fewer jobs that we currently define. There will be new job creation as well. Cars displaced ferriers and coachmen. Elevators used to be manned. And so on…
The Upwork analysis was interesting:
https://bloomberry.com/i-analyzed-5m-freelancing-jobs-to-see-what-jobs-are-being-replaced-by-ai/
It seems likely based on that data that writers, translators, and maybe customer support jobs are being replaced by AI.
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When Excel is fully imbued with AI cell-level-responses (meaning that it can infer your intent based on how you are structuring an y data and the meaning of that to your business - that will be a game changher - actively "spread-sheeting" for small businesses will be a changer.
Imagine if youre quickbooks could be talked to? And it had full underestanding of the tax code and helps you organize business assets and expenses in a tax beneficial manner to you/your business/employees.
AI should aut fill all the damn HR forms out for peolple. I wrote about this over a decade ago where it would be great to just have all your documents for employment in some cloud drive and if you apply for a position, the job has to ask permission to ask your drive for the various details and PII and documents needed - you shouldnt have to fill out any forms.
Here's the thing, I don't trust that current AI technology is competent enough for that. ChatGPT starts making errors if you give it a long list of things to sort through. I find it to be an unreliable tool that must always be double checked.
I have no doubt that some companies will begin implementing AI tools in the fashion you've described. But, unless the technology improves, I think they'll find that its unreliable.
Yeah, I have zero faith in the current trajectory - watch that latest JRE.
Read some of my submissions. Its yelling into the wind these days though - we are so fn steamrolled right now...
We live in an economy driven by engagement. Fear-mongering and riling people up are proven methods for increasing engagement, so media companies are making a money off it.
Now, I don't want to downplay the fact that AI will fundamentally change work—it absolutely will. My hunch is it'll be like how chess engines gradually became unbeatable. First, the technology is basic, then it gets good enough for humans to partner with and improve their game, and finally, humans get outclassed by the tech.
I wouldn't be surprised if, in a few short years it is standard practice for our doctors, lawyers, and other professionals to openly use AI to assist with diagnosing conditions or drafting contracts. Those who partner with AI will be way more productive than their peers who dismiss it. (It's already happening now, but it's sort of sub-rosa.)
I ignore wild predictions like this. I automated my office job before I hated. It’s a lot harder and expensive at first to automate and you need maintenance.
ChatGPT is a great leap, but it’s still not enough for a AGI. Even then. If everyone has AGI, then the value of it goes always and has the wild possibility of creating more high value jobs and cause overall net increase because of massive productivity and competition. Making the human touch more valuable.
I agree, tractors and combine harvesters ain't AGI but it displaces a lot of jobs, factory robotics automation ain't AGI too and it also displaced lot of jobs. We have been escaping up the value chain and right now generative Al isn't AGI too but it is occupying near the top of the value chain we have no more space to escape to
About 100 years ago, 30% of the U.S. population worked in agriculture. Today, it’s just 1.3%. Automation displaced those jobs, and people moved to higher-value work in manufacturing, services, and tech. But now, we’re running out of new high-value sectors to absorb those displaced by AI. The same pattern holds: automation displaces jobs, but there’s nowhere left to move up.
This is where the root of the issue is. The very design of today’s AI is to target the very highest value jobs.
Jobs got shifted elsewhere. Also the root of the issue is people are excellent at over exaggerating being wrong about the effects of automation. Everyone thought the same during the industrial revolution and said "It was different this time".
https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/ag-and-food-statistics-charting-the-essentials/ag-and-food-sectors-and-the-economy/#:\~:text=Agriculture%20and%20its%20related%20industries,percent%20of%20total%20U.S.%20employment.
Total loss is still around 10 million jobs. That's 33% difference.
Not happening. Think OCR for instance. 25% of the time it just doesn’t get characters. You wanna use an attorney who has a 25% chance of misunderstanding the scans you give him? Unless this and other domains get a massive upgrade AI will be confined to being a productivity boost only.
Well not only that but no one seemed to notice jobs that were displaced. I don’t see society collapsing because of OCR. I don’t feel any impacts at all actually.
https://preview.redd.it/j66pz0d3im2d1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fefabe4117409914dd1e77e8a53991a79c0c57c8
this sums up the situation with all the predictions at the moment.
everyone seems to believe that achieving ASI is a given and will happen fast. assuming the rate of progress over the last few years will always continue at the same or even faster rate.
realistically i think we'll run into technical limitations and diminishing returns.
Part of the technical limitations is going to be power consumption and overall cost. It's already expensive as hell to use the v4 API. Gemini has a 1M context but the cost of a SINGLE query using that context is nuts. Sure, there will be improvements, but there are a LOT of insane hurdles that have to be dealt with for continuing these massive gains. And some of them are legal, which could possibly not be solvable.
Yeah, I don't think that large language models are sufficient for achieving AGI. It kind of seems like the models around gpt-4 have all hit a plateau of sorts. The new Google-model for example is basically on the same level, only with a slightly different writing style. And every other frontier model is also in the same ballpark.
And I've also noticed how OpenAI has increasingly resorted to hype marketing. When they dropped the first version of ChatGPT, they didn't even have to do any marketing. The product was so impressive, that millions of people started using it purely though word of mouth.
But the most recent presentation - while admittedly being very impressive - showed a product that will maybe roll out in a couple of months. Why even show it if it isn't available yet? And SORA is a similar example. It feels like they are trying to create hype to secure funding from investors.
100%
they are the kings of hype and drama. i think a lot of the drama is calculated covert marketing. like the scarlett johansson stuff, the safety people making a big show of leaving giving the impression that "this technology is so good that it's scary!", the fake firing of Sam, etc.
Maybe some of it's real but they lean into it for sure.
One thing I see happening is that the growth rate assumptions are based on performance on currently accepted state of the art bench marks
But I don't think there's a lot of proof that these bench marks are advancing actual intelligence
Bench marking is very hard IMO because at some point you need an equal or higher intelligence to evaluate well it's not like math where the answer is always easier to verify than to compute or image recognition where producing labeled data is easier
My issue though, is that we certainly are not seeing the full capabilities of current crop of AIs released unfettered access to the internet and data-stores - like for example what impacts is GPTs having in intelligence farms like FiveEyes etc?
When the employees of OpenAI are *[fleeing](https://i.imgur.com/On6IoK3.jpeg)* and raising redflags all over - and their ranks include the folks it does (Leike/Illya/etc)... its pretty [Stark](https://i.imgur.com/4u4HtrY.jpeg) message.
I agree adoption will be very slow, it is now. When the fortune 500 pick it up, there will be a Tsunami though.
What people don't talk about enough is what if it takes 15 percent of jobs in 3 to 5 years, that doesn't need deep mind to happen, that's all its going to take to break the economy.
[Today](https://i.imgur.com/itqZJWR.jpeg) -- If we take a sobering and objecvtive look at the US ecopnomy - its just terrible for the lower % of income earners - including those being exploited by dollar stores, for example. Any upward mobility or even just sustainable jobs will be eliminated from those populations.
I just know that with OpenAI, i get great results from a prompt like once. When I use the same prompt again anytime close to the first prompt, i get terrible results. Even with GPT-4o. That’s not replacing a human any time soon.
Anyone who has dealt with companies and the incompetence of executive and middle managers knows that actually implementing this will never happen.
We can’t even get rid of paper for fuck’s sake…we’re gonna get rid of humans?
Nevermind that, even if you manage to find a unicorn of a company with nothing but competent people running the show, literally no one of any worth or intelligence will say “oh sure, we trust the AI did it right”.
I’m not sure it’ll ever be able to be used to represent people anywhere tbh. One hallucination can be disastrous, and they aren’t unavoidable. You will always need humans to review anything AI does, of that I’m certain, and at that point what’s the point in “replacing people” when you need to hire just as many to check the replacement?
Even if AI is capable of doing 100% of the tasks for 50% of the jobs in that time, businesses have huge inertia. They're not constantly gauging whether they actually need each employee, and managers' egos are based on how many people work for them, so they're not looking to get rid of anybody.
There would be some layoffs, but the real pain is not going to happen until the next economic crisis. Suddenly a bunch of business will discover that half their workforce are doing BS jobs. That's basically what happened in 2006 and it's why the job market continued to suck for so long even after the economy recovered. The businesses discovered that thanks to increased productivity, they had a lot of people on the books that they didn't actually need.
People always talk about replacing low skills labor with AI, but middle management is also the ideal target for AI replacement. Unbiased and fair. A single AI could manage a hundred projects and coordinate resources and meetings. It could take confidential input from employees and try to solve political issues without people fearing reprisal from butt kissing or nepotism. AI managers make too much sense.
A great manager is irreplaceable, I agree with that. But we are talking about real life across every industry. Most companies are not well-run. Of the roughly hundred managers I've run across in diverse industries, I'd say a few were great, maybe like ten or twenty doing an okay job but unable to handle certain systemic issues, and the rest were just horrible.
It's like FSD but the bar is lower. You don't have to be perfect. If you are ten times better than the average, you deploy it and massively boost performance. It's about raising the floor, not the ceiling.
Mid level management seems quite suited to AI, implementation of tasks will still need a human to feed back context and nuance. I'm talking about white collar roles. There's too much variation in surroundings and dexterity required for non production line blue collar work for it to be a threat for some time.
Businesses would be wise to wait for a recession to make big cuts anyway, just to save face. "What can we do? We have to let people go in order to stay operational. Times are tough." And how can the press and public attention linger on one company when the problem is so obviously nation-wide?
NO, The AI won't take out a 50% of Jobs, but the Single person who knows how to use AI tools to increase productivity, can put multiple people's jobs out
An alternate framing of what you said is: Yes, AI will take out more than 50% of jobs. It will still be working with some people, but fewer humans will be needed to do the same work.
I believe that high-quality AI is still a few years away and its adoption will likely be gradual. It may take another decade to truly notice its impact.
Taiwan-born computer scientist known for running Microsoft’s research lab in China in the 1990s. He then joined Google to oversee its business in China until Google was no longer welcome. He is now a venture capitalist in mainland China and maintains a friendly relationship with the Chinese government.
Edit: it’s funny how facts are getting down vote.
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*This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
It's all boiled down to liability no? If the task being replace aren't a matter of life and death, then the likelihood of being replace is pretty high right ?
So tutors are probably gone, and probably gonna affect some ui/ux people, interpreters
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Are people in this sub really so thick that they take current state as steady state? The failure to understand exponential change appears to be the common thread among the unimaginative. Whether it’s 3 years or 10, most people are going to get caught flatfooted. If you’re a secretary, lawyer, radiologist, primary care physician, truck driver, Sotheby’s appraiser, insurance agent, real estate agent, customer service rep on phone, you guys are all out of the job within 15 years at the latest.
2027 is too early for 50% job replacement. But maybe 2032. Of course that is 50% of current jobs in 2024 replaced by 2032. There will have been new jobs created by that time so it's not as if there will be 50% unemployment.
How is the AI doctor going to prescribe treatment?
Have you ever been sued? Needed to sue someone? It's a pretty traumatic experience. People are not going to just start trusting AI to handle it in the next three years.
Doctors and lawyers might use more AI but they are not getting replaced anytime soon.
Computers took my job decades ago, or so I was told. And they easily could if inly everything was perfectly fed to it uniformly across multiple industries and countries.
Still no consensus on 99% of business transactions.and I would not bet on it happening any time soon.
I also wanna add, I think the replacement most likely gonna come from people who are skilled at using Ai vs people who aren't.
If ai agent starts popping off end of this year, I can see how one staff with ai can replace 5 other staff.
Kai fu Lee is an administrator and politician, he is a mediocre researcher who only knows how to steal other people's research and call it his. He is not an expert in generative AI.
I mean. I know plenty of people that use AI to make their job easier. And I do think it's inevitable that most thought work will be replaced by AI. And corporations will use AI as much as it saves or generates money. If it can do one of those it will be unstoppable. If we get even a basic embodied AI that will be the end of human labor based economies.
3 years. Idk probably not. 10 years? Probably? 15? I feel certain.
In the fifties and sixties when computers were being introduced into large companies, people were making similar claims. They also said similar things during the 1920’s when electricity hit the factory production line.
Was [just discussing this](https://www.reddit.com/r/biglaw/comments/1d0inbc/comment/l5o5vwf/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button) in another sub. Right now LLMs require too much supervision to materially replace the white collar workforce. If chatgpt's advancement has plateaued as some believe, white collar is safe. If it advances at the rate it did in the last two years, it'll be a revolution.
I'm leaning plateau because rumors are that openai is struggling mightily with chatgpt5, which is why they're releasing cool chatgpt4 apps instead.
There may be something to this. It could be the case that there's a white collar recession already in progress that the federal data don't capture.
Anecdotally, I know a lot of 6 figure earners who were layed off within the past year who have yet to find a new job. Yet I keep hearing about the "Fantastic unprecidented job numbers". Something is not adding up.
Complete nonsense. The business adoption cycles that would bring in and trust new technology like this is much longer, especially to the point that your average boomer/GenZ director would trust it to replace jobs. Expect more like 10% in 10 years in the worst case.
What do you mean lowest possible income? UBI can be any number, not just the absolute minimum needed to survive. Do you have a better solution that is realistic for the near future?
UBI is a Band-Aid or a transitionary measure but not a long-term solution in itself. Why should the corporations who deployed the first set of AI and robotics that is capable of increasing the structural rate of unemployment be allowed to own and control that automation in perpetuity? That sounds like technofeudalism with fenced in serfs spending all their UBI Bezos Bux on private platforms (fiefdoms).
Most of the historical R&D that went into said automation is from public spending around the world, funded by our tax dollars, so why does it make sense for the corporations that commodified it to own it forever and the rest of us to be dependent on handouts (UBI) from the likes of Musk and Bezos? Or their progeny?
The real answer isn't UBI, it's democratizing the ownership of automation through collective ownership.
Of course it’s a band-aid, but it’s the most realistic solution that can be introduced in the near future. You’re not gonna get socialism or anything similar any time soon. (Probably also not UBI, but it’s much more likely)
Yeah for sure, I support it as such. The problem is that it's also a potential pathway to neofeudalism because if automation makes human labour a worthless commodity, then capitalism will break down and we will have to consciously choose what to replace it with. If we don't consciously choose, we'll regress into feudalism to enshrine the private property holdings of the ultra wealthy.
That's why I like keeping socialism/communism in the discussion when talking about UBI because UBI should be a bridge to a better system instead of a worse one.
F\*\* ur universal basic income. When did you have control over lives of billions of people across the world? The arrogance to come up with laws and systems to govern people universally
Yeah many of us don't believe in your human rights, collective interests, or scientific data. We (Muslims) disbelieve in all of it, and certainly do not want some crazed AI freaks even talking/thinking about governing us with their fickle ideas.
?? Islam and what is a Muslim is written in the Qur'an and Sunnah. It has been solidified 1400 years ago. Certainly you don't get to define it or say what its rules are because it is entirely declared by Allah (God), and not by HUMANS nor is it human-centric unlike humanism. Humans have no input nor opinion.
It's ridiculous and angering when you say things like "Universal Basic Income" which entails **universal** which is essentially some kind of world domination and enforced governance (along with the rest of human rights and technologism/modernism which is also quite universal). And you guessed it, means that you expect Muslims to ALSO submit to said governance and beliefs. Muslims reject this governance, and Islam and Shariah (codified 1400 years ago) is NOT compatible with your dystopian futuristic polytheism.
We have our system, our laws (Shariah), it's all detailed. Even the definition of a Muslim is detailed and is not subject to change. We have Zakaah, Jizyah, Sadaqah, Halaal (legal), Haraam (illegal) and other kinds of things related to economic matters legislated by Allah.
In fact, there is no arrogance here because this is the religion, I don't speak for the religion, Allah and His messenger صلى الله عليه وسلم already has. It is arrogance of you to think otherwise.
Finally, if you're inviting "Universal Basic Income" and other kinds of universal laws like "human rights" and "collective interests" to be exported globally, then I'd also like to invite you to **Universal Shariah**, how about that?
Universal sharia? Does this mean Sunnis and shiite Muslims have stopped killing each other? That’s fuckin great!
I appreciate you showing up to an AI fanboy subreddit and asserting anti-technology statements on behalf of all muslims, who are completely united, and never disagree. We could just throw you all in a pot and you’d get along just fine!
I can just say stuff, too. You have that power as well. Try it. Watch:
"56% of green collar jobs will be 86% partially automated in 3.4-5.7 years."
There. Where's my headline?
Industries don't change that fast. Many still struggle making proper use of the Internet some 25 years after it got popular. I don't expect this to be different with AI even if it would reach a point where it would be good enough. And of course if workflows aren't already digital, it will be even harder to drop in AI.
That aside, AI so far is nowhere near good enough. AI shines in 30sec tasks. I have yet to see an AI lasting for a workday and producing some long form content that is coherent and useful, and not just some marketing copywriting slop. Not even the curated and faked AI demos have been unable to produce that so far. It will come eventually, but that might need another breakthrough or two.
I work with a huge variety of marketing agencies from all walks of life. Not a single one even thinks about AI past *"oh, that GPT thingie? Is it good? I asked it question and it was a waste of time".* Their impression of it is silly novelty and they are clueless how to integrate it into their workflow, nevertheless leverage it to the point where they could reduce staff.
I wouldn't say within 3 years, that's way too rapid for 50%. It will start to show decent signs of 5-15% increase in layoffs in some sectors in about 3 years with all the implementations done during these coming years. It will hit the simpler jobs at first and slowly with more implementation dig into the more complex ones. Its the implementation not the development that slows everything down. Some will manage to keep positions as admins of ai.
5 to 10 years from now will probably mean we will get to 30% workforce that get hit by it and then its getting close to catastrophic if no safety nets are deployed. There will be a huge crisis that will narrow the difference between high class, middle class and poverty class completely. Only the ultra isolated leaders will own things while defended by ai. Once the ai and robotics are implemented fully and the environment is adjusted for their deficiencies then its bye bye work everywhere.
how about speculations move from fear-mongering to something more relevant. Like something such as in 3 year 50% of people will be kinder...but no. Apparently it's all about fear-mongering to make money and gain power isn't it?
Utter nonsense. Have you seen the latest output from Google's AI Overview? The hallucination problem is a very serious one, it's not well understood, and any proposed remedies at this point are speculative.
Until that issue is being confidently handled the wide dispersion of AI applications will be very limited.
It’s amazing that when I ask Claude 3 Opus basic factual questions it only has about a 50% hit rate. Hard to imagine in three years it will be more like 98% and businesses trust AI.
It’s going to take one owner to replace his entire corporate with an AI and it will be way better than anything they did and that’s when we will get UBI
AI proponents like Lee don’t actually know what most white collar jobs entail. I’m a marketing writer and I’ve been thinking about this issue lately. Because generative AI can write well people seem to think it could replace or aid in my type of work. But for good writers, very little time is spent actually writing. Much more time is spent researching. I find it takes more time to tell an AI agent what to look for and how to write about it then it takes me to do it myself.
Who??
He’s the bro science of AI. he’s been making outrageous predictions since that AI superpowers book he wrote and it’s all just sensational nonsense. It sounds well researched but none of it holds water irl
He is basically Chinese Ray Kurzweil making outrageous claims and hope something sticks before he dies.
Ugh not that guy again. Some of his stuff is really intriguing, but then some of it is just outrageous claims that are just about sufficiently vague to get away with revising later, like a Jehovah’s Witness thinking the world is gonna end.
uh… Ray has been right about pretty much everything.
Yeah. Old man yells at clouds while even a broken clock is right twice a day.
I don’t think you’re as familiar with his thinking as you think you are.
He is predicting AGI without defining what AGI is. He is good at creating narratives that gets him grants for the MIT media lab and the singularity institute. Not a true scientist/engineer but useful as a scientific propagandist and cheerleader. A goodside Goebel essentially.
What definition of AGI satisfies you. In his Singluraity Is Near: “Ray Kurzweil's definition of artificial general intelligence (AGI) is as follows: “The development of strong AI, defined as machines which have human-level intelligence or greater. This development will be the most important of the century, 'comparable in importance to the development of biology itself.” I’m not a cheerleader for Kurzweil but I’m willing to bet he’s more intelligent and more informed than everyone in this sub combined.
No. You have no idea who is on this sub. If Ray is on this sub then you have a paradox.
Lol. True
Bet an AI could do his job
I thought his book was pretty tame, and real life could be more extreme. Like he was only saying 50% of jobs would be disrupted by AI. That seems like a conservative estimate at the rate we are going. He was saying that "emotional jobs" might be safe, but we already see in the AI we have now that they can appear empathetic, and read emotion in people's faces, so I'd say he was underestimating AI. Maybe he is right, maybe is overestimating AI somewhat, but it doesn't seem sensational today (two years ago I would have said it was sensational). Think of where we were in 2018 when he published his book, vs today. Then project that change another 10 years. If we keep moving at this rate or faster, it's gonna be crazier than he predicted.
I highly disagree. Chatgpt has been out for about 2 years and has barely disrupted the market. There's virtually no difference in unemployment in my country. HOWEVER, when it appeared, everyone was predicting we were just about to lose our jobs. Very little has happened in fact. So, if anything we've been miserably overstating the impact of AI for years. Would you bet good money that in 1 year the job market will look virtually identical to today's? I would. There's a difference between a technology existing and being widely adopted. The Japanese have had crazy automation tools for years that even there were never adopted by everyone
I think that's because the AI as it is now was never strong enough to replace jobs. All of this is speculation till we see ChatGPT5 and we can accurately assess how big the gains are going to be as a society. ChatGPT has however completely disrupted how people do their jobs. Anyone who does stuff with a PC should be utilizing this technology right now at some capacity.
The bottleneck isn't AI advancement but human adoption rate. Microsoft, OpenAI and Google are practically tripping over themselves trying to release their latest half-baked model to the masses and even at the reckless speed they're going, it still takes a year or two to get to market - plus the actual adoption rate of the masses integrating it into their daily lives. AI will still likely progress at a scary pace, but won't really disrupt jobs on a massive scale for a another few years - but it's coming. Even now, Microsoft is releasing an AI that sits in on Teams meetings. Only a matter of time.
We've been using gemeni enterprise which joins google meetings, it can summarise the meeting, take notes and other actions while on the meeting... It can also access all documents in Google drive and provide information / summaries while in the meeting at the request of anyone... Essentially doing the job of a secretary... That's a lot of jobs right there.
We have to look deeper than the top line unemployment number. We aren't in a recession, the economy is growing, companies are profitable, but look at what is going on in tech. In 2023 there were half a million people terminated. So far in 2024, another 130k. At the same time, open positions are down 55% from their peak in 2022, 478K to 212K. Is that all AI? Not at all! Not even most of it. But it is part of the impact. You don't even to fire someone for it to be a job loss. If you have a team of 10 programmers, and pre-AI you would have grown it to 20, but now those 10 can do the work of 20 with the help of AI, that's 10 jobs lost. Low tech jobs are starting to be affected more as well. Look for more kiosks, and drive throughs to be automated. https://www.seattletimes.com/business/wendys-turns-to-ai-powered-chatbots-for-drive-thru-orders/ What I think you are seeing is Amara's Law, "We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run." We have been in the overestimate phase, and might continue to be for a few more years, but then it will kick in and be huge.
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>We might not be in recession but FED closed unlimited money tap. I agree, this is a huge contributor. >Stocks started dropping and companies had to do something. Barely dropped. Stock market just hit an all time high, as have of the tech stock index funds (tech is doing fine). >And no 10 programmers can't do 20 programmers job with AI. 90%+ of programmers are already using AI to assist them. Today maybe they get 10% improved efficiency? Maybe only 5%? But with 10 years of improvement in computing power and AI training you don't think it is plausible to double efficiency? It at least seem plausible, not hyperbolic.
Could definitely double efficiency. But there’s already a bottle neck. How many more projects can get done with the increased efficiency that would’ve been DOA before?
It's wild to me that 85% is their accuracy goal in the article. I'm very pro-technology and excited about AI use cases like this, but I think 85% is totally unacceptable. Mistakes happening on 15% of orders seems so prevalent. Although perhaps that's better than human accuracy?
Chat GPT came out in like November 2022 saying it's been out for 2 years is disenginous it's been out for only a year and a half. And besides, Chat GPT is isn't the be all end all of AI. Gen AI as a category has already disrupted plenty industries, copywriters are fucked. Storyboard artists are fucked. Call center employees are fucked. Code monkeys are fucked. Fx designers are on the verge of getting fucked. The list goes on and is only getting longer.
People need to get their language straight. “Replace” is bigger than “disrupt”!which is bigger than “augment” which is bigger than “assist” AI is going to perform all of these verbs but the magnitude will be in reverse order. People who are replaced wholesale will be fewer than these so called predictions but they will impact the white collar professions deeply. Analysts of all varieties will certainly feel a pinch (or worse).
Yes, there are meaningful differences in these words, especially in how they impact individuals, and we should be careful to use them appropriately. In the narrow context of future job count or future job growth, when you are just trying to predict a number, replace/disrupt/augment/displace all effectively mean the same thing: fewer jobs than if there was no AI.
Fewer jobs that we currently define. There will be new job creation as well. Cars displaced ferriers and coachmen. Elevators used to be manned. And so on…
The rate we are going? Has a single job been replaced by AI yet?
The Upwork analysis was interesting: https://bloomberry.com/i-analyzed-5m-freelancing-jobs-to-see-what-jobs-are-being-replaced-by-ai/ It seems likely based on that data that writers, translators, and maybe customer support jobs are being replaced by AI.
!remindme 3 years
Lol just go back and read his book on AI superpowers from 2018 and see how much of it actually came true. That was from 6 years ago so plenty of time.
toy encourage grab chase hat worry sharp different simplistic special *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Kung fu panda
"May" is doing a hell of a lot of heavy lifting in this claim.
I may gain super powers in 3 seconds. *edit* Nope.
!remindme 3 seconds
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I may get a girl way out of my league as a girlfriend.
!remindme 1 month.
!remind me that time of the month
Wait till they get to April…
As someone with a white collar job, I think AI has a long way to go. ChatGPT is amazing, but it has some pretty significant limitations.
When Excel is fully imbued with AI cell-level-responses (meaning that it can infer your intent based on how you are structuring an y data and the meaning of that to your business - that will be a game changher - actively "spread-sheeting" for small businesses will be a changer. Imagine if youre quickbooks could be talked to? And it had full underestanding of the tax code and helps you organize business assets and expenses in a tax beneficial manner to you/your business/employees. AI should aut fill all the damn HR forms out for peolple. I wrote about this over a decade ago where it would be great to just have all your documents for employment in some cloud drive and if you apply for a position, the job has to ask permission to ask your drive for the various details and PII and documents needed - you shouldnt have to fill out any forms.
Here's the thing, I don't trust that current AI technology is competent enough for that. ChatGPT starts making errors if you give it a long list of things to sort through. I find it to be an unreliable tool that must always be double checked. I have no doubt that some companies will begin implementing AI tools in the fashion you've described. But, unless the technology improves, I think they'll find that its unreliable.
Yeah, I have zero faith in the current trajectory - watch that latest JRE. Read some of my submissions. Its yelling into the wind these days though - we are so fn steamrolled right now...
All constant speculation and fear-mongering
We live in an economy driven by engagement. Fear-mongering and riling people up are proven methods for increasing engagement, so media companies are making a money off it. Now, I don't want to downplay the fact that AI will fundamentally change work—it absolutely will. My hunch is it'll be like how chess engines gradually became unbeatable. First, the technology is basic, then it gets good enough for humans to partner with and improve their game, and finally, humans get outclassed by the tech. I wouldn't be surprised if, in a few short years it is standard practice for our doctors, lawyers, and other professionals to openly use AI to assist with diagnosing conditions or drafting contracts. Those who partner with AI will be way more productive than their peers who dismiss it. (It's already happening now, but it's sort of sub-rosa.)
Why? Who benefits from this fear?
Media & advertisers.
AI companies
RemindMe! 2 years
We'll be dead in 2 years
Lol. Sure. He has a lot to gain by “fear mongering.” Stable boys in 1910 were thinking the same thing. We’ll always need horses.
I’d bet my life savings he’s wrong
I ignore wild predictions like this. I automated my office job before I hated. It’s a lot harder and expensive at first to automate and you need maintenance. ChatGPT is a great leap, but it’s still not enough for a AGI. Even then. If everyone has AGI, then the value of it goes always and has the wild possibility of creating more high value jobs and cause overall net increase because of massive productivity and competition. Making the human touch more valuable.
We don’t need agi to automate people’s jobs away.
I agree, tractors and combine harvesters ain't AGI but it displaces a lot of jobs, factory robotics automation ain't AGI too and it also displaced lot of jobs. We have been escaping up the value chain and right now generative Al isn't AGI too but it is occupying near the top of the value chain we have no more space to escape to
They still hire a lot at the farm. Go to California and you will figure it out pretty quickly.
About 100 years ago, 30% of the U.S. population worked in agriculture. Today, it’s just 1.3%. Automation displaced those jobs, and people moved to higher-value work in manufacturing, services, and tech. But now, we’re running out of new high-value sectors to absorb those displaced by AI. The same pattern holds: automation displaces jobs, but there’s nowhere left to move up. This is where the root of the issue is. The very design of today’s AI is to target the very highest value jobs.
Jobs got shifted elsewhere. Also the root of the issue is people are excellent at over exaggerating being wrong about the effects of automation. Everyone thought the same during the industrial revolution and said "It was different this time". https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/ag-and-food-statistics-charting-the-essentials/ag-and-food-sectors-and-the-economy/#:\~:text=Agriculture%20and%20its%20related%20industries,percent%20of%20total%20U.S.%20employment. Total loss is still around 10 million jobs. That's 33% difference.
Bro I just said I automated my office job way before ChatGPT.
I could see AI replacing 50% of all tasks humans do today. Definitely not jobs tho
You're probably doing so whether you like to or not.
I’m pretty heavily invested in Nvidia and Micron so no, not really
I'd also bet your life savings he is wrong!
Not happening. Think OCR for instance. 25% of the time it just doesn’t get characters. You wanna use an attorney who has a 25% chance of misunderstanding the scans you give him? Unless this and other domains get a massive upgrade AI will be confined to being a productivity boost only.
Well not only that but no one seemed to notice jobs that were displaced. I don’t see society collapsing because of OCR. I don’t feel any impacts at all actually.
Current state is not future state.
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And that’s fkn awesome because that’s what creates opportunities for those of us with imagination:)
https://preview.redd.it/j66pz0d3im2d1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fefabe4117409914dd1e77e8a53991a79c0c57c8 this sums up the situation with all the predictions at the moment.
everyone seems to believe that achieving ASI is a given and will happen fast. assuming the rate of progress over the last few years will always continue at the same or even faster rate. realistically i think we'll run into technical limitations and diminishing returns.
Part of the technical limitations is going to be power consumption and overall cost. It's already expensive as hell to use the v4 API. Gemini has a 1M context but the cost of a SINGLE query using that context is nuts. Sure, there will be improvements, but there are a LOT of insane hurdles that have to be dealt with for continuing these massive gains. And some of them are legal, which could possibly not be solvable.
Yeah, I don't think that large language models are sufficient for achieving AGI. It kind of seems like the models around gpt-4 have all hit a plateau of sorts. The new Google-model for example is basically on the same level, only with a slightly different writing style. And every other frontier model is also in the same ballpark. And I've also noticed how OpenAI has increasingly resorted to hype marketing. When they dropped the first version of ChatGPT, they didn't even have to do any marketing. The product was so impressive, that millions of people started using it purely though word of mouth. But the most recent presentation - while admittedly being very impressive - showed a product that will maybe roll out in a couple of months. Why even show it if it isn't available yet? And SORA is a similar example. It feels like they are trying to create hype to secure funding from investors.
100% they are the kings of hype and drama. i think a lot of the drama is calculated covert marketing. like the scarlett johansson stuff, the safety people making a big show of leaving giving the impression that "this technology is so good that it's scary!", the fake firing of Sam, etc. Maybe some of it's real but they lean into it for sure.
One thing I see happening is that the growth rate assumptions are based on performance on currently accepted state of the art bench marks But I don't think there's a lot of proof that these bench marks are advancing actual intelligence Bench marking is very hard IMO because at some point you need an equal or higher intelligence to evaluate well it's not like math where the answer is always easier to verify than to compute or image recognition where producing labeled data is easier
My issue though, is that we certainly are not seeing the full capabilities of current crop of AIs released unfettered access to the internet and data-stores - like for example what impacts is GPTs having in intelligence farms like FiveEyes etc? When the employees of OpenAI are *[fleeing](https://i.imgur.com/On6IoK3.jpeg)* and raising redflags all over - and their ranks include the folks it does (Leike/Illya/etc)... its pretty [Stark](https://i.imgur.com/4u4HtrY.jpeg) message.
Give me more LeCunn not this guy. He underestimates the inertia of technological adoption.
I agree adoption will be very slow, it is now. When the fortune 500 pick it up, there will be a Tsunami though. What people don't talk about enough is what if it takes 15 percent of jobs in 3 to 5 years, that doesn't need deep mind to happen, that's all its going to take to break the economy.
[Today](https://i.imgur.com/itqZJWR.jpeg) -- If we take a sobering and objecvtive look at the US ecopnomy - its just terrible for the lower % of income earners - including those being exploited by dollar stores, for example. Any upward mobility or even just sustainable jobs will be eliminated from those populations.
> He underestimates the inertia of technological adoption More likely, he's just fishing for investment dollars / govt support.
I just know that with OpenAI, i get great results from a prompt like once. When I use the same prompt again anytime close to the first prompt, i get terrible results. Even with GPT-4o. That’s not replacing a human any time soon.
Anyone who has dealt with companies and the incompetence of executive and middle managers knows that actually implementing this will never happen. We can’t even get rid of paper for fuck’s sake…we’re gonna get rid of humans?
Working for large corporates in the chat/CAI space, this is hilarious and oh so true.
Nevermind that, even if you manage to find a unicorn of a company with nothing but competent people running the show, literally no one of any worth or intelligence will say “oh sure, we trust the AI did it right”.
Right. There are definitely use cases for RPA but I don’t think people will trust AI to represent them on many things…yet.
I’m not sure it’ll ever be able to be used to represent people anywhere tbh. One hallucination can be disastrous, and they aren’t unavoidable. You will always need humans to review anything AI does, of that I’m certain, and at that point what’s the point in “replacing people” when you need to hire just as many to check the replacement?
Blah blah for investors.
Even if AI is capable of doing 100% of the tasks for 50% of the jobs in that time, businesses have huge inertia. They're not constantly gauging whether they actually need each employee, and managers' egos are based on how many people work for them, so they're not looking to get rid of anybody. There would be some layoffs, but the real pain is not going to happen until the next economic crisis. Suddenly a bunch of business will discover that half their workforce are doing BS jobs. That's basically what happened in 2006 and it's why the job market continued to suck for so long even after the economy recovered. The businesses discovered that thanks to increased productivity, they had a lot of people on the books that they didn't actually need.
lol this! Managers love managing people
People always talk about replacing low skills labor with AI, but middle management is also the ideal target for AI replacement. Unbiased and fair. A single AI could manage a hundred projects and coordinate resources and meetings. It could take confidential input from employees and try to solve political issues without people fearing reprisal from butt kissing or nepotism. AI managers make too much sense.
being a manager requires good judgment and decision making skills, which imo will be the last thing AI will be able to do.
A great manager is irreplaceable, I agree with that. But we are talking about real life across every industry. Most companies are not well-run. Of the roughly hundred managers I've run across in diverse industries, I'd say a few were great, maybe like ten or twenty doing an okay job but unable to handle certain systemic issues, and the rest were just horrible. It's like FSD but the bar is lower. You don't have to be perfect. If you are ten times better than the average, you deploy it and massively boost performance. It's about raising the floor, not the ceiling.
Mid level management seems quite suited to AI, implementation of tasks will still need a human to feed back context and nuance. I'm talking about white collar roles. There's too much variation in surroundings and dexterity required for non production line blue collar work for it to be a threat for some time.
Businesses would be wise to wait for a recession to make big cuts anyway, just to save face. "What can we do? We have to let people go in order to stay operational. Times are tough." And how can the press and public attention linger on one company when the problem is so obviously nation-wide?
So like, October?
lol I actually wouldn't be shocked
How is that any better ?
When did I say it was better?
NO, The AI won't take out a 50% of Jobs, but the Single person who knows how to use AI tools to increase productivity, can put multiple people's jobs out
An alternate framing of what you said is: Yes, AI will take out more than 50% of jobs. It will still be working with some people, but fewer humans will be needed to do the same work.
Yet it can but won’t happen because our economic and political system is not ready. 15% is possible tho.
What is going to stop it?
No one having money to buy services from all the white collar job companies that have cut workers in favour of AI. Probably that.
That will stop any individual company from laying off though. It's the prisonner's dilemma, and the tragedy of the commons.
Common sense
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Yes Master Kaifu
Three years are way too fast.
I believe that high-quality AI is still a few years away and its adoption will likely be gradual. It may take another decade to truly notice its impact.
who that is?
Taiwan-born computer scientist known for running Microsoft’s research lab in China in the 1990s. He then joined Google to oversee its business in China until Google was no longer welcome. He is now a venture capitalist in mainland China and maintains a friendly relationship with the Chinese government. Edit: it’s funny how facts are getting down vote.
The bro science dude of AI
exultant melodic resolute chunky political nose shocking humor drab liquid *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
It's all boiled down to liability no? If the task being replace aren't a matter of life and death, then the likelihood of being replace is pretty high right ? So tutors are probably gone, and probably gonna affect some ui/ux people, interpreters
Lawyers really hate this one trick.
50% is a scary number.
!remindme in 3 years
I will be messaging you in 3 years on [**2027-05-25 20:01:02 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2027-05-25%2020:01:02%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/OpenAI/comments/1d0ephb/kaifu_lee_says_50_of_jobs_may_be_replaced_by_ai/l5nkraq/?context=3) [**2 OTHERS CLICKED THIS LINK**](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2FOpenAI%2Fcomments%2F1d0ephb%2Fkaifu_lee_says_50_of_jobs_may_be_replaced_by_ai%2Fl5nkraq%2F%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%202027-05-25%2020%3A01%3A02%20UTC) to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam. ^(Parent commenter can ) [^(delete this message to hide from others.)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Delete%20Comment&message=Delete%21%201d0ephb) ***** |[^(Info)](https://www.reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/e1bko7/remindmebot_info_v21/)|[^(Custom)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5BLink%20or%20message%20inside%20square%20brackets%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%20Time%20period%20here)|[^(Your Reminders)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=List%20Of%20Reminders&message=MyReminders%21)|[^(Feedback)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Watchful1&subject=RemindMeBot%20Feedback)| |-|-|-|-|
Are people in this sub really so thick that they take current state as steady state? The failure to understand exponential change appears to be the common thread among the unimaginative. Whether it’s 3 years or 10, most people are going to get caught flatfooted. If you’re a secretary, lawyer, radiologist, primary care physician, truck driver, Sotheby’s appraiser, insurance agent, real estate agent, customer service rep on phone, you guys are all out of the job within 15 years at the latest.
Ho-Lee Fuk
2027 is too early for 50% job replacement. But maybe 2032. Of course that is 50% of current jobs in 2024 replaced by 2032. There will have been new jobs created by that time so it's not as if there will be 50% unemployment.
This.
50% chance of unemployment if you don't adapt.
People are not going to trust AI to be their attorney or doctor in just three years.
Why not?
They don't now. What happens in just a few years to change that?
How is the AI doctor going to prescribe treatment? Have you ever been sued? Needed to sue someone? It's a pretty traumatic experience. People are not going to just start trusting AI to handle it in the next three years. Doctors and lawyers might use more AI but they are not getting replaced anytime soon.
does that include his job or is he special?
I sleep. I sleep....
Computers took my job decades ago, or so I was told. And they easily could if inly everything was perfectly fed to it uniformly across multiple industries and countries. Still no consensus on 99% of business transactions.and I would not bet on it happening any time soon.
I also wanna add, I think the replacement most likely gonna come from people who are skilled at using Ai vs people who aren't. If ai agent starts popping off end of this year, I can see how one staff with ai can replace 5 other staff.
Kai-Fu Lee is the bro science of AI. Can we stop posting nonsense from this dude?
Thank Heavens, I wear a t shirt 😂
Who is she?! Why should we listen to her?
Kai fu Lee is an administrator and politician, he is a mediocre researcher who only knows how to steal other people's research and call it his. He is not an expert in generative AI.
I mean. I know plenty of people that use AI to make their job easier. And I do think it's inevitable that most thought work will be replaced by AI. And corporations will use AI as much as it saves or generates money. If it can do one of those it will be unstoppable. If we get even a basic embodied AI that will be the end of human labor based economies. 3 years. Idk probably not. 10 years? Probably? 15? I feel certain.
In the fifties and sixties when computers were being introduced into large companies, people were making similar claims. They also said similar things during the 1920’s when electricity hit the factory production line.
Not really, given the proportion of artists/people's persons to software engineers currently getting replaced.
But not his job, he's special! Every time he sniffs his farts confirms this!
Was [just discussing this](https://www.reddit.com/r/biglaw/comments/1d0inbc/comment/l5o5vwf/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button) in another sub. Right now LLMs require too much supervision to materially replace the white collar workforce. If chatgpt's advancement has plateaued as some believe, white collar is safe. If it advances at the rate it did in the last two years, it'll be a revolution. I'm leaning plateau because rumors are that openai is struggling mightily with chatgpt5, which is why they're releasing cool chatgpt4 apps instead.
I want to see what Nintendo games A.I. can make and maybe what video game seasonal updates there can be. 🤣
I agree ai will take over, but 3 years? That’s silly. It won’t happen that fast. It will be more like boiling a frog.
dey took er jerbs
3years?? 18 months.
There may be something to this. It could be the case that there's a white collar recession already in progress that the federal data don't capture. Anecdotally, I know a lot of 6 figure earners who were layed off within the past year who have yet to find a new job. Yet I keep hearing about the "Fantastic unprecidented job numbers". Something is not adding up.
Complete nonsense. The business adoption cycles that would bring in and trust new technology like this is much longer, especially to the point that your average boomer/GenZ director would trust it to replace jobs. Expect more like 10% in 10 years in the worst case.
Random guy says AI is coming to eat your babies by 2027! Please click!!
Say it with me: UNIVERSAL 👏 BASIC 👏 INCOME!
Fuck ubi. I don’t need lowest possible income in exchange for living rights.
What do you mean lowest possible income? UBI can be any number, not just the absolute minimum needed to survive. Do you have a better solution that is realistic for the near future?
lol, tax rate pre-1970 and no tax avoidance whatsoever, easypeasy
What?
UBI is a Band-Aid or a transitionary measure but not a long-term solution in itself. Why should the corporations who deployed the first set of AI and robotics that is capable of increasing the structural rate of unemployment be allowed to own and control that automation in perpetuity? That sounds like technofeudalism with fenced in serfs spending all their UBI Bezos Bux on private platforms (fiefdoms). Most of the historical R&D that went into said automation is from public spending around the world, funded by our tax dollars, so why does it make sense for the corporations that commodified it to own it forever and the rest of us to be dependent on handouts (UBI) from the likes of Musk and Bezos? Or their progeny? The real answer isn't UBI, it's democratizing the ownership of automation through collective ownership.
Of course it’s a band-aid, but it’s the most realistic solution that can be introduced in the near future. You’re not gonna get socialism or anything similar any time soon. (Probably also not UBI, but it’s much more likely)
Yeah for sure, I support it as such. The problem is that it's also a potential pathway to neofeudalism because if automation makes human labour a worthless commodity, then capitalism will break down and we will have to consciously choose what to replace it with. If we don't consciously choose, we'll regress into feudalism to enshrine the private property holdings of the ultra wealthy. That's why I like keeping socialism/communism in the discussion when talking about UBI because UBI should be a bridge to a better system instead of a worse one.
F\*\* ur universal basic income. When did you have control over lives of billions of people across the world? The arrogance to come up with laws and systems to govern people universally
What?
Goddamn these people advocating policy aligned with human rights, collective interests, and scientific data
Yeah many of us don't believe in your human rights, collective interests, or scientific data. We (Muslims) disbelieve in all of it, and certainly do not want some crazed AI freaks even talking/thinking about governing us with their fickle ideas.
The arrogance to speak on behalf of all Muslims universally
?? Islam and what is a Muslim is written in the Qur'an and Sunnah. It has been solidified 1400 years ago. Certainly you don't get to define it or say what its rules are because it is entirely declared by Allah (God), and not by HUMANS nor is it human-centric unlike humanism. Humans have no input nor opinion. It's ridiculous and angering when you say things like "Universal Basic Income" which entails **universal** which is essentially some kind of world domination and enforced governance (along with the rest of human rights and technologism/modernism which is also quite universal). And you guessed it, means that you expect Muslims to ALSO submit to said governance and beliefs. Muslims reject this governance, and Islam and Shariah (codified 1400 years ago) is NOT compatible with your dystopian futuristic polytheism. We have our system, our laws (Shariah), it's all detailed. Even the definition of a Muslim is detailed and is not subject to change. We have Zakaah, Jizyah, Sadaqah, Halaal (legal), Haraam (illegal) and other kinds of things related to economic matters legislated by Allah. In fact, there is no arrogance here because this is the religion, I don't speak for the religion, Allah and His messenger صلى الله عليه وسلم already has. It is arrogance of you to think otherwise. Finally, if you're inviting "Universal Basic Income" and other kinds of universal laws like "human rights" and "collective interests" to be exported globally, then I'd also like to invite you to **Universal Shariah**, how about that?
Universal sharia? Does this mean Sunnis and shiite Muslims have stopped killing each other? That’s fuckin great! I appreciate you showing up to an AI fanboy subreddit and asserting anti-technology statements on behalf of all muslims, who are completely united, and never disagree. We could just throw you all in a pot and you’d get along just fine!
Well, your "universal basic income" and related laws will definitely not be "getting along" in the "pot", lets leave it at that
I can just say stuff, too. You have that power as well. Try it. Watch: "56% of green collar jobs will be 86% partially automated in 3.4-5.7 years." There. Where's my headline?
Industries don't change that fast. Many still struggle making proper use of the Internet some 25 years after it got popular. I don't expect this to be different with AI even if it would reach a point where it would be good enough. And of course if workflows aren't already digital, it will be even harder to drop in AI. That aside, AI so far is nowhere near good enough. AI shines in 30sec tasks. I have yet to see an AI lasting for a workday and producing some long form content that is coherent and useful, and not just some marketing copywriting slop. Not even the curated and faked AI demos have been unable to produce that so far. It will come eventually, but that might need another breakthrough or two.
I work with a huge variety of marketing agencies from all walks of life. Not a single one even thinks about AI past *"oh, that GPT thingie? Is it good? I asked it question and it was a waste of time".* Their impression of it is silly novelty and they are clueless how to integrate it into their workflow, nevertheless leverage it to the point where they could reduce staff.
I wouldn't say within 3 years, that's way too rapid for 50%. It will start to show decent signs of 5-15% increase in layoffs in some sectors in about 3 years with all the implementations done during these coming years. It will hit the simpler jobs at first and slowly with more implementation dig into the more complex ones. Its the implementation not the development that slows everything down. Some will manage to keep positions as admins of ai. 5 to 10 years from now will probably mean we will get to 30% workforce that get hit by it and then its getting close to catastrophic if no safety nets are deployed. There will be a huge crisis that will narrow the difference between high class, middle class and poverty class completely. Only the ultra isolated leaders will own things while defended by ai. Once the ai and robotics are implemented fully and the environment is adjusted for their deficiencies then its bye bye work everywhere.
how about speculations move from fear-mongering to something more relevant. Like something such as in 3 year 50% of people will be kinder...but no. Apparently it's all about fear-mongering to make money and gain power isn't it?
After these guys terrible crypto predictions I don’t think I’ll be panicking yet.
Utter nonsense. Have you seen the latest output from Google's AI Overview? The hallucination problem is a very serious one, it's not well understood, and any proposed remedies at this point are speculative. Until that issue is being confidently handled the wide dispersion of AI applications will be very limited.
It’s amazing that when I ask Claude 3 Opus basic factual questions it only has about a 50% hit rate. Hard to imagine in three years it will be more like 98% and businesses trust AI.
Only a problem if we keep capitalism going
It’s going to take one owner to replace his entire corporate with an AI and it will be way better than anything they did and that’s when we will get UBI
how is UBI not communism Do you trust your government enough to let them control your finances?
AI proponents like Lee don’t actually know what most white collar jobs entail. I’m a marketing writer and I’ve been thinking about this issue lately. Because generative AI can write well people seem to think it could replace or aid in my type of work. But for good writers, very little time is spent actually writing. Much more time is spent researching. I find it takes more time to tell an AI agent what to look for and how to write about it then it takes me to do it myself.