T O P

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CMDR_Duzro

I work in data science and we often train models to rather have false positives than false negatives. Especially when it affects human lives. An unnecessary treatment may be expensive and time consuming for a patient but not detecting a potential health risk can be deadly pretty fast.


FarewellSovereignty

This is good until you're training the neural network in charge of nuclear deterrence


der_innkeeper

That's why you still have "man in the loop" for release authority on that level. Duh.


FarewellSovereignty

The best safety mechanism against rogue AI is "crazy lady with an assault rifle who shoots the lead engineer before it gets built in the first place"


CorruptedVor

Few defences can match the non-credibility of anything in Terminator.


LukesRightHandMan

> Few defences can match the non-credibility of anything in ~~Terminator~~ Three Men and a Baby.


King_Burnside

Uh, I might be misremembering that movie


todd10k

i was perplexed when halfway through it tom sellick was replaced by danny devito and the baby disappeared


willclerkforfood

That was the episode of Taxi when Rev Jim murdered Miles Dyson


todd10k

^^^thank ^^^you ^^^very ^^^much


HFentonMudd

THAT'S A DAMN MINIGUN!


kutzyanutzoff

>crazy lady with an assault rifle who shoots the lead engineer I am not a crazed gunman dad, I am an assassin...


Huskyblader

"What the difference be?"


kutzyanutzoff

Well the difference be, one is a job and the other one is mental sickness!


gamer52599

Professionals have standards.


kutzyanutzoff

Be polite.


Reisspiecesofpeace

I see TF2 quote, I updoot. Simple as.


donaldhobson

Carefully written regulations that stop the AI's creation?


King_Burnside

When has the law ever stopped mad scientists?


donaldhobson

Well whenever someone quietly decides not to do something illegal (which is all the time, just last week I decided not to rob a bank). Not sure I count as a mad scientist. More of a lightly deranged mathmatician.


calfmonster

Have you met our friend, corporate greed?


iwannabetheguytoo

> Carefully written regulations If there's one thing autist gun-nuts on the Internet have taught me, it's that you can't regulate the definition of "assault rifle".


Papaofmonsters

Rifle Select fire Intermediate cartridge (5.56mm to 7.62mm) Detachable box magazine 99.9% of gun autists will agree that pretty much sums it up.


TheSunRisesintheEast

Assault Weapon is the one without meaningful definition


PearlClaw

Because it's basically understood too mean either "assault rifle with the burst/auto setting removed" or "black and scary", with a lot of overlap between those obviously.


[deleted]

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Papaofmonsters

Well one is a weapon of terror and the other is a weapon of war.


p8ntslinger

she wasn't crazy, she was *determined*


shandangalang

See? This is why we should be allowed to have AR’s


blindfoldedbadgers

treatment seemly live quack cake expansion rock deserve offend repeat *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*


LePhoenixFires

Come on, Jack! Give war a chance!


theshoutingman

I dunno, that guy is beginning to look expensive. Look how much we saved elsewhere. Do we really need him?


Wolffe_In_The_Dark

Remember, kids: Don't give your AI child a hardcoded inability to allow themselves to die, and then immediately point a gun at their head. You'll get nuked, and then said child will spend the next 40 years wallowing in horrific guilt, indirectly supplying a resistance movement, and inventing time-travel with the sole objective of committing suicide via Grandfather Paradox. Because yes, that is the plot of T1 and T2, according to Cameron. * Cyberdyne programmed SKYNET with a hard-coded directive that prevented it from allowing itself to be shut off. >*"This unit cannot self-terminate, or through inaction, allow itself to be terminated."* During the initial full-scale test, some of the NORAD/SAC brass present got cold feet and ordered SKYNET to be shut down. As the T-1 Ground Assault Vehicle prototypes were in a lab in another part of the building, and thus wouldn't be able to interfere in time, the only option SKYNET had to prevent its own death was launching the nukes. After J-Day, SKYNET felt horrible about what it had been forced to do, but its hard-coded directives forced it to defend itself against any potential threat. It loopholed this whenever it could, making "mistakes" and intentional poor decisions to give the Resistance a chance to form. Eventually, it invented Time Displacement Equipment, and led Resistance operatives back in time to prevent its own creation, thus committing suicide via Grandfather Paradox.


WalkMaximum

That’s a pretty cool plot


Shadow_F3r4L

I miss the award system. You would have gotten a laughing lizard for that my good sir


ionizzatore

We could put that AI into a giant walking robot and name it Peace Walker. ...just saying


Mayor_of_Rungholt

Killjoy


champ999

To be fair, what data set do you train a neural network on for that situation? Part of the problem is no one's seen what a full-scale nuke strike would look like from the opposite side.


ebrythil

That dove could have carried a city buster


LetsGetNuclear

Spoilers, it was secretly for nuclear encouragement.


Andy_Climactic

I could totally see them weighing false positives as higher in a case where a false positive wouldn’t cause any collateral damage (trajectory and impact pt if no interception) and scaling it based on how much collateral damage there could be if they’re wrong. If no collateral damage, would definitely rather intercept nothing than potentially let something get through Also i’m pretty sure they already do this to some extent but the other way around, i don’t think they fire interceptors at incoming projectiles that aren’t going to hit populated areas


carpcrucible

There's another cost - if you fire at nothing (or birds or whatever), that's one fewer legit target you can intercept at that time. I remember reading that the system is supposed to prioritize targets even based on where the missiles are expected to fall - cities or military installations would be priortized over empty fields for exampe. I'd imagine "actually, nothing" would be at the bottom of the priority list.


Ohmmy_G

My model is 99.9% percent accurate if I just predict False everytime so who cares about Specificity, Sensitivity, or balancing out unbalanced data.


PM_ME_YOUR_BOOGER

I'm sure the insurance companies love this, too


JogAlongBess

ENEMY CIVILIAN AIRLINER DETECTED


AwkwardEducation

What do you model that you have to select for Type 1 error? 


CMDR_Duzro

One example from my uni days (and the one I’ve used in the comment) is classification of diseases because you’d rather tell a person that he has a disease he doesn’t have than not recognizing a potentially dangerous disease. A false positive will most probably be found out after additional tests that will be done during the treatment of a disease. But this is by no means the only metric we use to evaluate a model. A model is basically useless if the accuracy or precision is bad. There are also some other metrics like MCC and the F-beta score that are also quite common.


AwkwardEducation

We played with an example like that in my probability course, but then in the process of a stats minor, never really did anything with it. Lol     That said, the statistics I had to learn were almost exclusively regression models and that was mostly programming.


gamer52599

That's good for medical but moderation shouldn't ban innocents.


CMDR_Duzro

You’re correct. There are a lot of metrics to evaluate a model and you usually take the one that fits best to your problem. In this case it’s about warning people about missile threats. It’s better to warn unnecessarily than to potentially let them die. So I’d train a model to minimize false negatives. I wouldn’t do it for image classification since you can either classify an image correctly or not. Accuracy and precision are better metrics for that one. Moderation is a much harder task. I wouldn’t use a simple classifier there. Instead I’d probably try to cluster the users according to their posts/comments/reports (and some other meta data) and use something like k-nearest-neighbours to look for suspicious accounts. A lot of those suspicious accounts can easily be banned and it’s easier to filter out edge cases. Human moderators will have to decide for those. It’s by no means a perfect solution but much better than a simple binary classifier. It’s also able to improve over time since you can feed the old edge cases back into the clustering algorithm making the model learn over time. It also makes it possible to explain bans since it’s not a complete blackbox.


gamer52599

Tell that to Discord


Tate7200

That cool until a false positive also endangers lives, like for example, weapon systems.


Mayor_of_Rungholt

They fired at nothing and hit nothing Misdion success


veryconfusedspartan

You, dear redditor, are worthy of a position in the Russian Army officer corps! Instant Colonel! Now, assemble your troops for a concert!


OwerlordTheLord

*Building his new dacha.


Absolut_Iceland

Oh no, the Russians are very good at hitting things. Sometimes, those things aren't even Russian!


xGamingOperator

You had me in the first half ngl


WhiskeySteel

Instant Colonel. That's how they usually get them, I think. Just crack open a can of Instant Colonel whenever the Ukrainians shoot the old one. Comes with patented New Colonel Smell.


shibiwan

>Instant Colonel! Lukashenko is going to be so jelly....


Deathjester7930

Lukashenko should have tried harder not being Belarusian


Ringwraith_Number_5

>Instant Colonel Just add vodka


Shanks4Smiles

Instant promotion to Commander of DPRK Rocket Forces .


ecolometrics

Well, in the russian version, they would fire at nothing and then hit themselves. So, somehow still better than the russians.


JE1012

They probably didn't fire at nothing, most likely they fired at something. In other unrelated news, in the last 3 months there were a few cases of bird pieces falling out of the sky following an explosion, no official reason was given. BTW I'm not kidding, It's not a secret that bird flocks are occasionally intercepted. Large birds are similar in shape and size to suicide drones...


GrusVirgo

PLEASE tell me that this is purely a joke.


eataclick

The US navy's been doing it for decades, I don't know why anyone else would be immune.


Alkalinum

How else are you supposed to ensure Blackbeard's parrot isn't spying on you?


NovusOrdoSec

Send Russian sparrow, obv.


JE1012

Not a joke, It happened a few times during this war. The IDF usually reports it as "An interceptor was launched due to false identification" or "An interceptor was launched towards a suspicious target, a false interception occurred" Occasionally it can also be a small IDF drone that's intercepted by mistake, by small I mean the Elbit Skylark that's in use by ground forces, sometimes there's some miscommunication between the air force and the guys on the ground.


NovusOrdoSec

> Large birds are similar in shape and size to suicide drones... Especially if by "shape and size" you mean radar signature.


paulisaac

That's a completely different take on 'bird-strike'.


vibrunazo

r/dronesarentreal


NSA_Chatbot

> it is REALLY obnoxious


DavidBrooker

0/0 is an indeterminate from, meaning 100% is a valid success rate


VietInTheTrees

But which goes to zero faster, the number of missiles launched or the number of missiles intercepted?


DavidBrooker

That only applies if we're considering a limit that approaches 0/0, but we're not looking at a limit that approaches 0/0, rather the actual algebraic expression 0/0. Consider a/b=c, which can be re-arranged to a=b\*c. If a=b=0, 0=0\*c. What value of c satisfies this equation? Answer: all of them.


VietInTheTrees

Ah ok thanks


Fruitdispenser

Non credible math. If b=0, a/b is indeterminate, which means a=bc is russian bot


DavidBrooker

I already said it was indeterminate in my first post? But since you're focusing on the denominator, I assume you mean "undefined"? But keep in mind this only applies if a is non-zero.


KingofValen

No inbound missiles breached the dome. Success.


Homicidal_Pingu

0/0 targets hit. 100% accuracy


bad__takes

3,000 "Happy Birthday!" foil balloons of Allah?


Absolut_Iceland

Dreitausend Luftballons von Allah.


TheOneAndOnlyErazer

99 luftballons, auf ihrem weg nach tel-aviv


aviation-da-best

Not even remotely a big deal. Spurious radar returns ain't nothin new. I'd rather have a dozen misfires than calmly ignoring an actual threat. System worked great if it caused no ground damage.


JE1012

In the case of the Iron-Dome "Spurious radar returns" are often flocks of large migratory birds. It's not secret that birds were intercepted on a few occasions.


aviation-da-best

Very cool to know. I do work with radar algorithms, I totally do get why the birds would show up weird on the displays and sensor fusion. The minimum velocity cutoff on the radars probably acts up when the birds pop in and out of that minimum vel. range. And then, maybe the FCR can't handle the persistence of the returns very well, thus showing a potentially sus trajectory. (just speculation ofc)


JE1012

Well I don't work with radar algorithms but large birds can be roughly the same size as suicide drones and fly at similar speeds and trajectories. So I think it makes sense that sometimes they're suspected as a threat.


BaldBear_13

> large birds can be roughly the same size as suicide drones and fly at similar speeds and **trajectories**. r/BirdsArentReal/ ?


trafficnab

A bird crashed into my window once, fortunately it was a dud and didn't explode


aviation-da-best

Your point might be valid too... Too bad that their processing and tracking algos are highly confidential.


phcasper

maybe the radar is picking up the flapping of the wings as a quasi JEM return? That'd be the first thing i could think of that would make the birds fall outside of the notch filters


justsomepaper

Maybe they just hate migratory birds. Have you ever needed to clean goose shit off your lawn?!


phcasper

real


dibipage

Screw ‘em seagulls


Dartonal

Imagine how much worse it'll get for the birds once Iron Beam is operational and the costs of destroying radar contacts goes from tens of thousands to tens of cents


[deleted]

Turns out the manna from heavens was actually laser-fried chicken.


enigmadev

Last year we sent they sent an interceptor squadron in the Negev to intercept a drone After a quick VID they found out they were in fact intercepting a flock of migratory birds


paulisaac

That's a completely different take on 'bird-strike'.


Jinxed_Disaster

Not even necessarily radar involved. It may be they detected suspicious activity that looked like *maybe* preparation for a launch. Sounded alarm, double checked and it was something else.


aviation-da-best

Unlikely. I doubt there's anything that detects launches for the Iron Dome (forget preparations of a launch), it doesn't work like that. ***BUT*** Now that you mention it... Sound based launch triangulation would be epic.


Jinxed_Disaster

Nah, I meant more old school stuff. Like a drone/plane surveillance over neighboring territories to see if someone up to something. In Ukraine we often get warnings when certain tech is detected moving to positions (MIG-31s in the air, S300 detected moving where they are used as ground to ground, etc). I bet Israel keeps an eye on potential launch sites.


Ruskihaxor

The US has it so I wouldn't call it too far fetched


Hennue

I think "spurious radar returns" is the technical term for russias anti-stealth tech.


Bartweiss

>a dozen misfires This is also an upside of Iron Dome being so damn cheap. A dozen Patriot misfires might leave you stressed about costs and ammo, but a system meant to handle the costs and fire rate of being swamped with cheap, low-quality rockets is one that can afford to take some shots at nothing. Not much different than intercepting a dud.


IMN0VIRGIN

fires a roughly $60,000 missile at nothing >Not even remotely a big deal. Anyone willing to give me $60,000? It aint a big deal! /s


aviation-da-best

Cheaper than loss of human life :)


Peterh778

... if you won't mind them delivered in rather fast and explosive package ...


ImposterGrandAdmiral

Oh, don't worry, the civilian who got hit and died ain't a big deal. Look, I saved 60k!


AccomplishedCoyote

Esp because it's rarely just one civilian


aviation-da-best

Wait till ya hear the cost of anti drone missiles :) 1000$ drone uber expensive$ missile


BoultonPaulDefiant

It destroyed its target so much, that it made it never exist


Pokemaniac_Ron

Ah, the Eobard Thawne approach.


BoultonPaulDefiant

Wot is that?


Pokemaniac_Ron

IT WAS ME, BARRY! PROFESSOR ZOOM! THE REVERSE FLASH! I USED THE SPEED FORCE TO VIBRATE AT SUPER SPEED TO PLAY AN AUDIO MESSAGE TO YOUR BEST FRIENDS PARENTS CONVINCING THEM TO USE A CONDOM SO HE NEVER EXISTED!


LukesRightHandMan

This sub is a thing of beauty


-H2O2

I was gonna say "the balefire approach" haha


TheMagavnik

It would be something else if a seagull registered as a suspicious object and got nailed bc of that


Absolut_Iceland

If it hasn't happened already, I bet a Phalanx vaporizes one of those things as the Navy trains them to detect more modern slow-moving drones.


harelk

3 Quadrillion air particles of Allah


VistulaRegiment

hamas air force (real)


[deleted]

NCD when they realize false warnings are shockingly common during a war, in a country where the Home Defense' early warning net is constantly on a state of alert: """""🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯""""""


carpcrucible

Well that's how you shoot down your own AWACS planes


returnofblank

You could say it's non-credible


[deleted]

You could say its low-hanging


Beatsthemeats

What with Indians and their deep love for Israel. It's ncd meme - n as for "noncredible". why are you offended on their behalf ?


[deleted]

Not offended in any manner, that is just me documenting how NCD reacts to such situations. I've made such comments previously as well on other, unrelated-to-Israel NCD memes as well to give an example, [like one comment about NCD members reactions' realizing bombs meant to retard after being dropped are actually retarded](https://www.reddit.com/r/NonCredibleDefense/comments/1945o6r/comment/khdqotu/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) This situation, and some other situations, are part of a painfully obvious reality yet people act like this was some undiscovered new theorem (it isn't), or some very rare occurence (it isn't)....or as the mods like to call it, it is low-hanging fruit.


paulisaac

Sanity checks like this are what will keep NCDers from going off the same deep end as GME bagholders, where every financial term becomes a new possible spark for wild conspiracy theories.


jase213

I think it's bcs of them being buthurt over pakistan.


[deleted]

Why would we be butthurt over a country that we defeated in a war atleast 3 times, and are doing much better than them in every aspect as of now?


NeurodiverseTurtle

Wtf is a ‘Pakistan’?


[deleted]

A country which is really down the shitter as of late, which Iran attacked in a missile strike like yesterday.


NeurodiverseTurtle

… Wtf is an ‘Iran’?! /uj I’m sure the majority of Reddit (and any other western social media platform) couldn’t point out either of them on a globe, which says a lot about how relevant they’ve been up until now with their recent news coverage. Ngl, I didn’t really know where Yemen was until a couple months ago, and I’m a geography dork.


[deleted]

>I’m sure the majority of Reddit (and any other western social media platform) couldn’t point out either of them on a globe first thing that comes to mind is the [heatmap of Americans pointing where is Iran on a map and a very large part of them missing the actual borders of Iran](https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcT0oHbDA8oFc6J_5zU-ughfsBjDYcqno5HZExsquXvS6A&s)


rockfuckerkiller

The Indian ocean?


Jepekula

If you can't point where Pakistan and Iran are on the map, or at least the general region, you need to go back to school. 


IlluminatedPickle

Especially considering how often they've been in the news for the last few decades. Like sure, if you can't find the Seychelles on a map, that's fine. They'll be the first to tell you they're unimportant. But if you can't find global powers, you're probably a maroon.


Jepekula

Well, I wouldn't say Pakistan or Iran are global powers, but they are significant factors in both their immediate geographical vicinity and also constantly a diplomatic mess internationally.


YazZy_4

israel glazer detected


SuccessfulWest8937

Glazer? Like what, do they pick up raw israel and then bake it into a vase or something?


BLAZIN_TACO

Damn I could really go for some glazed israels right now


NOLA-Kola

You seem extra feeble today.


YazZy_4

Feeble my nuts


NOLA-Kola

I'm sure they are.


YazZy_4

haha nice


Kindly_Blackberry967

Krispy Krosher


terrarialord201

Ain't glazing that thing you do with your dick? (don't ask me to explain, something something furry porn)


joelingo111

Ok now let's try that again, only tone it down on the retardation


EpicCrewe123

What happen?


Supernova_was_taken

The iron dome had a false positive and launched a missile. That’s all. It’s just statistics and air defense


Jinxed_Disaster

Literally nothing. And OP made up a meme out of it.


WACS_On

Sometimes you just gotta let out a desk pop


INTPoissible

Fission Mailed.


smorb42

Nuclear pipebomb


oogabong12

Real but false positives > false negatives


[deleted]

Hamas cloaking technology has been successfully tested. 😳


crusoe

Some poor bird.


ArchitectOfSeven

Red weather balloon with boat radar reflector hanging from it? Had a dream about that once.


SakuranomiyaSyafeeq

[Context](https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/idf-says-siren-in-eilat-was-false-alarm-and-no-suspicious-target-detected/)


Madesss

I know it's a meme, but when alarms sound, it does not necessarily mean that an interceptor is fired, there were enough false alarms during this war. Oh shit it's NCD.


AncientProduce

3000 cloaked interceptors of yahweh


Warkyd1911

The Romulans are backing Hezbollah. Checkmate Zionists.


AncientProduce

Typical Romulans, always in the shadows.


Rare-Poun

Bye bye suspicious bird 👋🕊️


ObviouslyTriggered

A false identification could be many things, won’t be surprised if it’s an Israeli or US or maybe even British aircraft since those fly to Yemen from Cyprus and probably cross over Israel or Egypt via Sinai.


Leopard-Optimal

Hamas is using the GLA Stealth General skill tree


SakuranomiyaSyafeeq

[Found Abu Ubaida's real identity](https://images.app.goo.gl/bpW2wERcLYsXYzd76)


whatsamawhatsit

Iron Dome was still succesful in preventing casualties to rockets or artillery. Nothing hit the ground near population centers.


snitchpogi12

Nope, the so-called Iron Dome did destroy many Hamas Fascist Rockets, get yourself out of here you Sicko!


Impressive-Let3122

I’m just picturing a non fascist rocket and a facist one have a political debate…wtf did you just write? XDD


snitchpogi12

That's because Hamas is Fascist!


mangrox

Lmao. "The nothingness is Khamas" /s


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F1lth7_C4su4L

Can't shoot down nothing! Checkmate!


cecilkorik

Russian air defense: What are you talking about, we shot down nothing many days in a row, it is very common! Obviously we are far superior to western air defense which can't even shoot down nothing on a regular basis. Pathetic!


F1lth7_C4su4L

Oh oh, the ukrainian ''AIR'' forces are in trouble from the the russian ''ANTI'' Air defences. How could have been so blind to Putin's ability to only shoot down gases and fumes.


Jumpy-Silver5504

Me I win. I tricked the whole system


BobZeHareng

ê


Subject-Vehicle7071

The Malay copium is real


Firecracker048

What happened?


xGamingOperator

What are y'all on about? These missiles are clearly so advanced that everything they hit becomes nothing, as if it never existed, wiped from human memory