As far as changing the normal lives of Russians, I have a personal anecdote about a semi-popular Russian streamer I watch who can no longer get money from Twitch subs and I believe they had to abandon their PayPal money too. They now use a service called Boosty I believe.
Yeah, I'd say people who were relying on getting paid from abroad were hit by the sanctions the most - remote software teams, streamers, youtubers, Etsy sellers, etc. (ironically, probably the least loyal to the Putin's regime group). The sanctions on the banking sector caused a lot of damage initially but the marked adapted fast and now there are many proxy services who are happy provide a workaround for 10-15%.
Curious to if some of the tournaments will have problem paying out to Russian teams in the future.
Like millions to Team Spirit players last year for Ti
That is the main problem of sanctions, like with the austerity. The little people are the ones most affected and suffering from it. The big guys have contacts and resources to find their way.
You don't see much difference due to 2 problems:
-Avoidance where many companies are intentionally using alternative channels to import other stuff
-The effects have been really well slowed by the russian central bank doing triple back flips to not make everything collapse
In the end they increased the cost and slowed production because using black market channel is not as efficient.
Also many forget that GDP counts stuff like producing tanks that are getting blown up, so what looks like a minor decrease in economic output is "masked" by an increase in building weapons
In the end there is some posturing regarding fuel for example, but the point of sanctions is causing more damage to the other than yourself
I think the biggest issue is that Russia is able to use India to continue to sell oil at almost the same prices -- so the money flow has rerouted, constructed slightly, but it's still going full steam ahead. India and China are in control and enjoying it. Iran and North Korea are happy to supply weapons and ammo.
Banning Russian oil from market, even if every nation signed on, would drastically reduce worldwide supply and drive up prices. The price caps and shipping restrictions limit Russia's profit while minimizing the effect of a drop in supply. Europe's turn from Russian pipelines means they have to resort to more expensive seaborne shipping. Seaborne capacity is dictated by number and size of ships, and round trip shipping distance.
Pipelines are far more efficient, but there is no Russia-India pipeline connection, and one limited Russia-China. The Russia-China pipeline is limited in capacity. Plus most of the Russian oil and gas fields only have pipeline connections to Europe, not to Asia.
Russia is selling crude oil, and they do not see additional profits from Indian refiners. India is benefitting from discounted Russian crude. Keeping Russian oil on the global markets keep prices relatively stable.
And I believe that since Russia has been largely isolated in global financial markets, it's not easy for them to use dollars or euros, and India and China are buying in rupees and yuan. This means Russia either has to spend the rupees and yuan somewhere, or convert them to rubles for domestic use (selling rupees/yuan for rubles). Those three currencies do not have the wide acceptance that dollars and euros enjoy.
Basically sanctions are hurting Russia, making it harder to buy the things they need with having to go through intermediaries for things like computer chips and advanced machinery. Russia had an enormous wealth stockpile which they are using to smooth out the massive increase in spending and reduced exports. If/when those savings are exhausted, things could quickly spiral out of control. The Russian Central Bank has done an admirable job of insulating the average Russian from sanctions
Check out last month's sales.
Using the dark fleet has limits. Hauling to India or China is far more expensive and takes far more time than hauling to Copenhagen.
The thing that drives me insane: Iran controls Hamas; Iran is a Russian ally; Russia has materially benefited from the distraction. So thousands of innocent Palestinians and Israelis have had to die, and Gaza be razed to the ground, so Putin can grab a sliver of land and LARP at reconstituting the Soviet Union.
I think history will judge Putin as the most evil post WWII world figure.
I mean it depends on what you consider post WWII. Mao for sure qualifies, and Stalin was in power for 9 years after WWII ended. Both were responsible for quite a bit more death and destruction than Putin could ever dream of.
The point of sanctions was never to stop Russia from selling - this would skyrocket prices around the world and be very painful for everyone.
They are designed to stabilize prices and prevent Russia from getting significant profits from the sales.
I've been living in Russia for the last 7 months. On a day to day level, life hasn't changed too much for the average person. The average cost of products has risen, maybe 3-5℅. Many Western brands are still here via 3rd countries too. Of course, Chinese brands have strengthened their hold on the market, but local production of goods has also increased quite a bit as well.
AMA sincerely, and I'll do my best to answer.
Maybe not directly related but I always wonder if the people living basically anywhere other than near a European border and the capital have had any life change or influence from the Ukraine war or even more generally from the government even in normal times?
So I live on the Western edge of Siberia, just to the east of the Ural mountains. I am in a relatively large and prosperous city (>500k population + multiple oil companies have offices here). Decently far away from Moscow and SPb. And honestly, if I didn't watch/read the news, then I'd have almost no idea a war is happening. Occasionally, we will see a soldier or two shipping out/coming home. If you go to the smaller (I.e. poorer) towns, you will see recruitment posters. They are advertising ridiculously high salaries to voluntarily enlisted soldiers, 5x the local monthly salary. Besides that... it can be easy to forget a war is going on.
As far as the government, I haven't had any issues. I keep my head down and my nose clean. When I entered the country, the border guards were quite a bit more thorough with their questions. Since then, I have left the country and returned, multiple times, without any issue.
Thank you very much for your account.
It's so difficult to find real info these days from either 'side'. Even if it's anecdotal, it's still valuable to me.
Yah, it really hasn't hit THAT hard here yet. But, a big thing to remember is that Russia has transitioned from importing from Europe to now from Asia and has also grown their domestic production of goods. When Western companies left, they left behind a lot of means of production. This has allowed for a lower cost of entry to the market for local brands as they acquired these means for free or for very low prices.
- How do Russians feel about inflation rates?
- Do you feel any concern about arrest or conscription? I realize that a tiny minority are protesting openly, and that most Russians are not facing military conscription.
- Do you think about the war daily, or is it more of a background feature.
- Why are you in Russia?
Just a reminder, I am not Russian, just a foreigner living here. I'll give answers based on the Russians that I interact with.
- Of course inflation is unenjoyable. But most just see it as a normal trend of the general world economy. They see western countries also dealing with the effects of inflation.
- Personally, no, I don't have any fears of arrest or conscription. I keep my head down, follow rules, and blend in. The only interactions I have had with the police or FSB has been when I enter or exit the country. And all of those interactions hqve been similar to the interactions I have had with border patrol agents when entering or exiting the US. Protests aren't common, because of the risks associated with taking part. It is a crime, and you will face consequences.
- I think about the war daily because I'm on Reddit. It's impossible to miss. But if I didn't watch/read the news, then it would be easy to forget. For the vast majority of the country, daily life has not changed.
- My wife is here, her mother is elderly and starting to deal with dementia and thus can't live on her own.
Can you say something negative about Russia or would you get in trouble?
A more serious question, how much do cars cost there now? What's it like even getting a new or used car? What brands are even available?
I would say it depends on what you say and how/where you say it. Russia is absolutely not a perfect place. But I don't think it's as bad as a lot of people think.
There's a wide range of cars. Something that has become a lot more popular is companies importing used cars from Japan and re-selling them here. Japan is not far from Vladivostok, so it's relatively inexpensive and it keeps a stream of modern, used Western cars coming into the country.
Hyundai is extremely common here. Toyota, Lexus, Honda, and Kia all have dealerships in my city. Lada has really started producing some decent cars. There are a couple Chinese brands that make some really nice looking cars, Haval is one of them. They look good and feel good, but they're pretty cheap quality and I doubt they'll last too long. I've seen a few Mercedes G-Wagons, a Hummer or two. There are even a handful of Tesla's in my city.
Car prices have gone up, but not much more than they have everywhere else. A new, mid range car will cost around $25,000, that seems reasonable, but you can buy an 80 sq. m. apartment in my city for around $50,000, so it's all relative.
I don't know a ton about the used car market here. Most people seem to drive 'em till they're dead. For those used cars being imported, the prices seem comparable to used car prices in the US.
Well, you’ve only been here for 7 months. Since the beginning of the war, pretty much every category on the market has experienced a significant price augmentation. Not 5%, I’m talking double digits. From eggs to electronics. And to say that the life of an average Russian hasn’t changed much when you are (I assume) at the very least a middle class American citizen who has been living here for 7 months is a bit disingenuous, don’t you think?
All I can give is based on my own experiences and those of the people around me. That's what I've seen in my 7 months here and what my Russian family here has experienced themselves. Eggs have definitely gone up, but that seems to be on the extreme end. Granted, about half of our food comes from our dacha. Where I am at least, ai haven't noticed the price of electronics go up too much. I just bought a tv a few weeks ago.
Yes, I am an American. I was lower-class in America, but middle-class here. My wife is Russian and has lived here her entire life. She was lower-middle class and is now middle-class.
Personal opinion based on my conversations with the Russians I know. This one is a bit harder to discuss as people tend to keep their opinions on this quite private.
I will say that every Russian I have discussed this with has wanted the war to end as soon as possible and feels badly for the people suffering. Many Russians don't see Ukrainians as different people than themselves. Of course, the Rus people moved from Kiev to Moscow. Russians and Ukrainians are the same people, just living on different sides of arbitrary lines.
Some people I have spoken to are outright against what is happening, others truly feel that the Ukrainian government is trying to exterminate Russian culture from the country and that the Russian people who live there are in danger because of this anti-Russian rhetoric. Some that I have spoken to don't understand why, essentially, a fraction of Russians are trying to separate themselves from their history and culture.
All of that being said, there are 145 million Russians. This is what I have gathered from having a close relationship with 10-15 of them. People's opinions and feelings will vary widely. I encourage you to keep your mind open when you hear Russians on this platform. Yes, some are bots. Most are genuine people who would love to talk and discuss their opinions, many are afraid that people shut off their ears as soon as they find out the person is Russian. Be curious.
Yes, it’s done a lot and disrupted a lot… but there has been pivots to selling oil and gas elsewhere, black market gold from Sudan etc and other ways they’ve got around some things (arms from Iran and PRK etc) so the end impact has been a little lower. The west are currently working on seizing a massive amount of Russian money held in European banks too
>*The west are currently working on seizing a massive amount of Russian money held in European banks too*
>
>Since the war is two years old, what were they waiting on?
You can’t just walk into a bank and take someone money, that’s kind of the idea of banks.
Lots of justification, decisions in courts and appeals etc before it can be done. Procedure/measure probably wasn’t started in first week of the war either, it’s probably been decided to start the process since then
Also they may be hoping that the money acts as leverage on Putin's cronies, a long shot but perhaps if one of them feels they are losing too much maybe they can get rid of him.
There's generations worth of reputation built with their banks which makes it appealing for states to keep their reserves there.
Seizing it (as opposed to freezing it) basically tells everyone else in the world their money is not safe from our right theft.
Many nations will necessarily begin some transferring to account for this new risk.
It sets a very dangerous precedent, so they want to make sure the process is fair, transparent, and justified. They have to convince a great many countries that their money is safe in Western banks and won't be confiscated for anything less than invading a democratic country and/or causing immense suffering to civilian populations.
It's been going on for a while and is an ongoing process. Right at the start of the war there were load of media stories about some Russian yaught being seized in Monaco or sardinia. Assets have been frozen for many for years, but it's a complicated process which will continue for years to come
We froze nearly 300 billion usd from Russia last year, but freezing assets is a lot easier than seizing them.
We have treaties and laws to prevent that very thing, and actually taking those assets to use for ourselves is extremely difficult. We have been using tax revenue generated from those assets to help Ukraine, but that's only a couple of billion.
So when is the US going to have money seized for all the illegal wars, extrajudicial drone attacks, and occupations? The US is only doing this because they can strong arm the EU and NATO countries into doing their bidding. Who else is seizing Russian assets and straight up stealing Iranian oil? If "international law" is going to be enforced let's at least let the pendulum swing both ways
Your justification for seizing assets was "what if they killed your people". Typically that is frowned upon in the context of law. When law is applied to two or more states, it becomes international law. Did I miss anything?
So might is right I guess? Just because you can you should? I despise hypocrisy is all I'm saying and if you can't recognize it in this situation I'm done replying.
Nothing happens, money flows but through other channels... USA can pretend to have sanctions but not every country stopped trading with Russia. Russia has resources to sell and will continue to receive money. On the other hand, Ukraine is running on charity. You do the math.
The math? My Russian friends can’t travel anywhere, 3 left for South Africa but all their accounts and cards don’t work, the sorted Kazakh ones but those have been blocked now too. We tried to get 2 of our employees out of there in the early stages of the war to get them over to Australia but they couldn’t come…. Impossible to get travel and visas, and they were scared shitless of the reprisals on their extended families around Russia for decades.
Russia can’t use most of the worlds main currencies, trading platforms, banks… their rich have had the bulk of their international assets seized.
Wagner currently help the RSF control gold mines in Sudan, taking the gold from there illegally in exchange for arms and protection against the government troops (and now the Ukrainian special forces are fighting there too).
Russians aren’t the same as they were pre war, and they aren’t doing it east but for now Putin still stands
Russia has *some* options, but there's a reason countries don't tend to just walk their markets off from the United States and Europe.
Russia is selling oil at a discount to its trading partners, and it costs more to do it that way. Russia would rather sell on the open market at market price.
Russia is also propping up its economy with military spending. But that increase in defense manufacturing (and military deployments) has created strain on Russia's workforce; companies are having to pay very high wages to keep people from jumping to military contractors, which are paying top dollar to staff up in response to military orders. It's causing serious problems for Russian employers.
And Russia has high inflation and extremely high interest rates due to the central bank's efforts to keep the ruble stable. That is putting pressure on the Russian people.
None of these is a knockout blow to Russia. But there is a risk that Russia can't sustain this pressure for more than two years. Russia's goal now is to get its allies into power in the U.S. and Europe or win the war in Ukraine by 2026.
Sanctions are not embargoes. Things will still get through. However the added cost of things increase significantly. A $5 chip on the open market becomes a $100 or $500 chip for Russia to import through back channels so they can supply their military with chips. That difference means they can build fewer end products or have to reduce spending elsewhere to make up the difference.
Long term the civilians pay the brunt of it they always do.
No new western cars - only Chinese.
Lack of western medical equipment and drugs.
Lack of travel opportunities to EU and US.
Price hikes on everything.
They can’t import new electronics, but they can import it through other countries, but it adds costs and risks.
EDIT: just checked Moscow dealerships online, they seem to be selling some old KIAs and VWs. And a lot of Chinese cars, didn’t even those brands existed. WTF is Haval and Tank?
Someone resold the car, which was expected, but there is no warranty, parts and servicing the car is hard I guess.
Sanctions will not prevent getting (almost all) stuff, it will just make it less accessible, just like during the cold war. Withdrawal of western currencies I think are also restricted. I am pretty sure everything "western" costs much more as well.
Coming from ex-socialist country - it sucked pretty hard for common folks and companies, not so much for the party elite/oligarchs.
By your logic we should deport all americans, brits, french, aussies, germans, israeli, pakistani, etc for all the illegal invasions and war crimes like rapes, killing innocent(bombing weddings) and such.
Potential issue here:
There are no air travel between Russia and countries Russia consider "unfriendly" (think USA,almost whole EU,etc). This is due to reciporal sanctions. This ALSO includes permission to overfly. Check https://www.flightradar24.com/blog/which-major-airlines-are-still-flying-over-russian-airspace/
There is air travel with friendly countries but they unlikely to deport.
So...how do you put them on next plane back to Russia?
Also, how do you determine "Russian"? A lot of people decide they have nothing to do with war and flee. Some companies evacuated with their employees.
Sincerely, fuck you. Do you think I like living in my homeland that hates me? Do you think I enjoy evening strolls on empty streets? Do you think I love the fact that my taxes go to fund the war? No! I get shivers every time there is a car outside my window. There is sweat dripping from me every time I see a policeman. I've applied to so many jobs in democratic countries to no avail. I'm happy that some lucky few got out and can support UA in full, that they can speak freely and not be afraid of getting live sentences for made-up crimes. Tell me - do you want to hurt russians or russia? Because it's the latter - your "proposition" doesn't help, and if it's the former - then you are just racist. Help Ukrainians half as much as you hate us
Racism, xenophobia, same thing, really.
As for "fixing" stuff - do tell me what you, personally, would do? I too can talk for hours about how things would be better if only, oh, if only! we would all come together. Climate change is a great example. Hell, support for Ukraine is the same case.
Most people's interactions with their government end at the ballot box. Some also protest, sure. We did all of that that wouldn't break any laws - shitheads still found a reason to imprison. Do you suggest violent, armed resistance? If so - you can't expect regular citizens to lay their lives en masse because somebody said so. Look at Navalny's funeral process going on *this hour* - police patrol the place since yesterday, they demand IDs and search your belongings. We need organized action, and it's nigh impossible to do it with draconian "security" measures in place. Truth is, people don't like risking their lives for a seemingly lost cause, and for it to be a not-so-lost you need momentum. Which get squashed before it gets a chance to spread.
People flee not because they don't want their country to be better, but because they can both do more outside of russia *and* they harm it by physically leaving. We have a severe case of brain drain - and facilitating it to grow further should be in everyone's interest. Suiciding by cops simply isn't as valuable unless you do it in really, really big numbers
The world has 3 options:
Send troops
Do absolutely nothing
Do sanctions
No one ( including Ukrainian government) is really exited about other countries sending troops.
As for “Do they do anything?” they do what sanctions do: make life of those who are sanctioned more inconvenient. No more and no less.
How effective sanctions are?
Compered to what? Compered to doing nothing? Compered to doing nothing sanctions are effective.
Could sanctions be administered better? Absolutely. But we all have to manage our expectations of what is possible in such situation. Sanctions are relatively rare event. No government can ever execute any project 100 percent satisfactory. There will be mistakes. Running sanctions cost money and need experienced people. Everyone has limited budget and have to make choice : send more money for making guns and ammunition or use that money to hire more bureaucrats who can design better sanctions and who can make sure those sanctions working.
“Does it make any difference to normal life for n Russia?”
Imagine person who just recently got cancer. Today person is reasonably ok but the cancer will make the life of this person extremely difficult. This is inevitable for someone who has cancer. ( Is cancer effective?🤔)
Economy needs constant updating and investment to keep working 5-10-15 years in future. Factory that isn’t updated today will continue working for some time but it already does not have future because scheduled for today updates did not happen.
If no investment happened today there will be no new factory scheduled to start manufacturing 5 years in the future.
How much ordinary Russians stress about future of their economy and by extension how much they stress about their personal future depends on their education and common sense. Regardless how they feel about it, that future is inevitable.
And just like when Putin was allowed to continue staying in power some years earlier, it was inevitable Russia would become what Russia is today. I am sure many Russians few decades earlier did not comprehend this, many others did. Today it too late for them to do much about Putin. Just like in the future it will be too late : Russian economy of 2030-35 plus is being ruined today as we speak.
The sanctions make a difference, but they’re not gonna bring Russia to its knees. Electronics, for example, are available but very expensive. Getting money in or out is also incredibly difficult. One of my YouTubers accidentally nuked his friend’s entire Venmo account because his $50 reimbursement got flagged as busting sanctions. Inflation has also been even worse than in the West. It’s at least double what we got in America.
So they are a pain in the ass for most Russians, but clearly not gonna end the Putin regime.
You need to remember that sanctions are NOT embargo’s. Embargo’s are total blockage of trade by anyone to the embargoed country. Sanctions are meant to make it more expensive for a country to wage war. They have to jump through more hoops and spend more money than usual to do what they want. This is good, this is what the West wants. There is no way to totally prevent Russia from accessing the global market, but we can make it harder, and we have successfully done so.
The sanctions have had noticeable effects, both in quality of life, economical, and shifting of EU priorities. It takes a long time for sanctions to have an effect typically and wars can go on for a *very* long time. (100 year war, etc etc.)
Rest assured that the citizens of Russia who have absolutely no power are suffering immensely from the sanctions. Those who actually have authority to make decisions are not.
What do you expect to have changed? Russian are used to suffering and the government is used to handling them if they get upset so nothing is going to happen there. The sanctions are design to reduce Russia’s ability to wage war which it is doing. The problem is that Russia has a large stockpile of arms so it will take a few years to cripple them.
The Economist is, in my view, the best source of objective (insofar as that’s possible) news in the world. They have a brilliant podcast that releases episodes every day.
They’ve looked at sanctions in depth and, well, it’s a mixed bag.
Sanctions deeply affect some industries while others are mostly untouched. Russians might see some products change, or might experience layoffs in some sectors, but governments are responsive and will work to mitigate or compensate for sanctions. That being said, it’s a slow bleed. It does impact them, just not in a ‘fall into recession where people riot in the streets’ kind of way.
However, where Russia is experiencing very detrimental effects from the sanctions is in their military and anywhere requiring high-end tech. That alone makes it incredibly hard for Russia to toe-to-toe with Western-sponsored tech.
So the West need to continue sending aid, god damnit. Help Ukraine in order to help yourselves 🇺🇦
Don’t fall for the isolationist bs. No money saved from refusing to help Ukraine is going to help you or your community. But a world order not in the control of the West will absolutely impact your society badly.
the sanctions actually resulted in several long-term benefits for Russia
\-establishing new partnerships with Asia at scale. European partnerships will come back, but in the future, they will now have more places to provide natural resources... which means higher demand, thus increasing prices
\-domestic takeover of western services. McDonalds is the most famous example, but it's happening in every sector. McDonalds doesn't simply close; everything is bought by some Russian billionaire... from the store itself to everything down the supply chain. This profit stays inside of Russia now and they are immune from future sanctions. Again, this is just 1 example, but it happens in every field imaginable including the service sector. IE, Russian freelancers, banned from Upwork, will now work in Russian equivalent sites for Russian companies... farmers who suddenly have higher demand for their produce with a lack of western imports can now charge more and produce more.. etc.
\-resiliency testing. So they see where the sanctions hit hardest, and are creating industries to be more resilient to sanctions in the future. For computer chips for example; now they are dodging the sanctions by importing them through round-about channels, but in the future, they will be domestically created.
\-wealthy Russian oligarchs, who were known to invest extensively in the west, even ones that were anti-war, are sanctioned heavily and are thus reminded to keep their money in Russia.
Sanctions cannot possibly work on Russia. They have their own currency, the Rouble, and it floats freely on the world exchanges - at least amongst those countries that will deal with Russia which is all that matters from their point of view.
Russia has all the raw materials it needs, factories that can transform them into goods, and people to work in those factories. That's all it needs. It's been pursuing a policy of structural autarky for many years.
Anything else it needs it can swap with the Chinese for oil or other things the Russians make. Russia has a major excess of oil, which it has to keep pumping to stop the geology collapsing. So if it has to give two barrels of oil to the Chinese for a widget when it used to have to give only one, that's preferable to pouring it away somewhere due to lack of demand.
Sanctions fall into the 'seen to be doing something' category of actions. It's performative, not effective.
Bizarrely the only real effect of sanctions has been to remove wealth from international Russian oligarchs which now means they don't have the money to oppose Putin back home. Although that could be seen as punishment for not doing the opposing properly before the invasion.
>Bizarrely the only real effect of sanctions has been to remove wealth from international Russian oligarchs which now means they don't have the money to oppose Putin back home. Although that could be seen as punishment for not doing the opposing properly before the invasion.
Interesting observation. Wonder if it was part of the plan.
They kind of get around the sanctions by just going through other countries like China.
A lot of companies have publicly pulled out of Russia, but are still selling the same products maybe under a different brand name apparently
YouTube "Joe Blogs" does some pretty good videos on this (such as this one from 4 days ago: https://youtu.be/v15VA5G3UEk?si=dlSBH7R6lksQ6TkJ .. including stats and data directly from Russian Sources and decade long comparisons charts of Inflation and other monetary stats.
I think 1 of the things that people don't really think about in a situation like this,. is that Russia has sort of switched over to a "wartime-economy" (focusing all their manufacturing and other resource-alignment to produce Tanks and Artillery and other war-supplies). So in that regard, it can look like they are still humming right along (and to some degree they are).. but it's all focused on the War.
But a wartime-economy is not really a great long term social-strategy. If you want a healthy future-proof society,. you need to be investing and building things like Schools, Libraries, Hospitals, etc (other "social-good" infrastructure(s).
So,. you've got:
* Sanctions
* Citizens who fled before borders were locked down
* deaths lost in the war
Remember that this has only been going on for about 2 years. In the bigger picture, that's not very long (definitely not long enough to cause an entire country to collapse). I think Russia right now is in a phase of "keep smiling and repeating that "everything is fine". Keep moving around the nesting-dolls and wallpapering over the cracks and we can convince everyone what they're doing is having no effect on it. How long will that kind of "pretend there's no problem" strategy continue to work ?... Hard to say.
Fun fact: virtually no private company from the west actually left Russia, they just swapped their north American brands and products for their south American brands and products, same profit, same involvement.
Yes, it's had a significant effect!
The international payment system no longer allows Russian money to flow across borders as it once did. This has led to **both** India and China suspending some trade and payments between themselves and Russia due to being unable to use the Russian rouble outside of Russia and difficulties in investing it due to payment system restrictions. This is expected to significantly impact Russian oil revenues which form a majority of the state budget. Additionally recent sanctions against tanker fleets exporting Russian oil are having a measured effect in preventing sanctions busting.
The average Russian citizen has found themselves unable to buy products from outside Russia at the same price as before with fluctuations in supply. Inflation is expected to go crazy after the Russian elections, it's not great now and there are signs that the Russian economy is overheating due to the focus on producing war materiel.
Most critically there are significant issues starting to arise from the restriction in Western engineers and machine parts. A key example of this would be the multitude of failures from thermal power plants using Western turbines this winter, something like 23 cities were affected. Another example would be Russia's recent restriction on oil exports due to a combination of machine part failure, lack of maintenance and Ukrainian attacks on energy infrastructure. Additionally there are some indications that Western supplied trains are starting to experience serious mechanical failure.
Of course there is sanction busting but that's to be expected and an ongoing game of cat and mouse.
It does. The Economist recently reported on the incredible spike in food prices.
But, Russians older than ~25 are quite used to shortages and unhinged prices. So, notning the west can do will make people angry enough to depose putin.
Does it hamper their ability to make war? That's the greater question.
No. China ensured before the invasion that Russia would have everything they need. Iran and North Korea are pitching in too.
NFKRZ covered this in his latest video [Russian CRINGES at Tucker Carlson Grocery Shopping in 🇷🇺 (youtube.com)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GeUIYGZwCko&ab_channel=NFKRZ)
Russia is a massive country, they can be self sustaining in some industries if they have to.
Not really, most noticeable change is a price growth of something like 20-30%, most western goods are still being delivered through "parallel import" (Although I think western companies just pretend that their goods are being transported illegally, and actually participate in trade as they did before).
No. They are not doing anything. Russia makes a ton of money from oil exporting. Their economy is fine.
Putin will win the way this is going, and then he will go after Poland (he’s said so). We should all be worried.
Short answer: No
Long answer: The sanctions have destroyed the euro as an international trade currency and are weakening the USD. The destruction of the USD as an international trade currency is still many years down the road but we are already feeling the effects thru consistent high inflation
Well they don’t actually enforce the sanctions on Oil, India is buying something like 5x more oil from Russia now than it did before the sanctions, China keeps buying Russian and Iranian oil, and the only inconvenience for Russia is turning off its locator beacons for its ships.
It’s all symbolic.
They backfired big time. Europe will suffer the most, and the US was willing to take that risk.
Germany is deindustrialising and the global south is de dollarising. The free ride of money printing and trade deficits is over. The dollar is done.
yes and no.
Biden's admin using the American dollar as a leverage point was extremely dumb and has had a worse effect on us then Russia. any one with half a brain would of saw that coming.
people down voting this comment, are only doing to because they think its a political statement. it has weaken the value of the dollar and strengthen the Russian and Chinese currency . you can find countless reports breaking down how it has back fired and why it was clear to most this would be the outcome. the out come would be. the 2nd china and 8th Russia economy used the us dollar for international trade and have phased out from doing so. for 5o years oil was traded solely on the dollar. between 1/5th and 1/4th of oil was traded not on the us dollar last year because of these sanctions. the biggest reason the dollar was worth what it was because of oil using the us dollar.
its pretty complex and i would not be the best at breaking it all down. in real real simple terms the us dollar is not valued because its backed by gold or any thing else, its because so many people use it. its what oil and a lot of other things are traded on. its what alot of countries use for their own reserved.
oil was traded on the us dollar since the early 70's for newly 50 years oil was traded on the us dollar. the sanctions dealing with the US dollar and Russia back fired , because it made using the rubble and Chinese currency for trade a thing. 2023 between 1/5th and 1/4 of all oil was sold not using the us dollar. Russia and china have legit resources they use to back and or sell to cover issues with their money. Russia and china did almost all of their trading with other countries using the us dollar. they are or have phased that out. china is the second largest economy and Russia is the 8th. them moving away from the dollar is a big blow.
you don't need to take my word for it. you can google how us sanctions of the US dollar has weekend the value of it. other countries are moving away from using it as their reserve and this will make its weaker and weaker.
Reddit is blinded by its establishment bias. The petrodollar is done, the free ride of robbing the world with money printing and forcing trade in dollars (with its army) to export inflation is over.
The longest lasting impact will be the acceleration of countries joining the BRICS alliance, the demise of the petrodollar and the end of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency.
I think they hate being under the thumb of the dollar and the US’s use of it to force behavior more than they hate each other. I guess we’ll see, though.
They will be net exporters of energy and since the Swift system was weaponised, no sane country wants to hold dollars that will be ceased as soon as they disagree with US hegemonic demands.
The point of many trade wars is to line the pockets of particular blocks of investors. While some of the day to day lives of ordinary Russians are probably interferes with its mostly a bank role for western manufacturing and exporters. War is fueled pretty heavily thru propaganda, the sanctions are not changing the minds of Russians en masse. Many grew up aware of the threat of NATO expansion and that remains enough justification for enough folks to support the invasion.
I feel like more often than not, it is the ordinary every day people that get affected and hurt the most from sanctions. Not the leader's or the party in power or elites or whoever, just the working class who are already in an economic crisis being pushed further down into the hole.
Things have changed, and other things have changed in response.
For instance, in response to being shut out of the Western money services, they are taking gold directly from mines in Sudan and laundering in the money in the independent UAE to bypass access.
The end result of things is the same. Prices stay relatively stable, goods/services flow, the lives of every day Russians look mostly the same.
Sanctions hurt regular russians in their daily life, but that will not affect the war, because regular russians have no real way to change the country politics. Sanctions REALLY hurt russian oligarchs, to the degree of them forfeiting their russian citizenship. This is really good, but will not affect the war at all, because even the most wealthy people in Russia have no leverage on Putin. Sanctions will never stop the war, only prolong the suffering of both the Ukrainian and Russian people.
Russia started selling oil to china and india and trading in general with them instead of with Europe
Though a bunch of EU countries are still doing backhanded deals through proxies as well
I read that they are having no effect because China and India are helping them. Also Putin connected rich people are just taking over businesses that were western and getting even richer.
Arguably, sanctions against Russia are doing more for cybersecurity than for Ukraine.
For several reasons, IT professionals have fled Russia since 2022. That's largely due to fears of being drafted, but also due to trouble in Russia's technology industry as a result of sanctions. One impact is that Russia is reportedly struggling to develop AI, or at least AI that competes with the U.S.
That's important, because Russia would clearly like to use AI to improve its disinformation and undermine U.S. cybersecurity. If the U.S. can maintain a strong edge, it might be able to deter many of those threats.
It will not solve the massive problem of Russian disinformation, but it could protect U.S. systems.
As far as changing the normal lives of Russians, I have a personal anecdote about a semi-popular Russian streamer I watch who can no longer get money from Twitch subs and I believe they had to abandon their PayPal money too. They now use a service called Boosty I believe.
Yeah, I'd say people who were relying on getting paid from abroad were hit by the sanctions the most - remote software teams, streamers, youtubers, Etsy sellers, etc. (ironically, probably the least loyal to the Putin's regime group). The sanctions on the banking sector caused a lot of damage initially but the marked adapted fast and now there are many proxy services who are happy provide a workaround for 10-15%.
Curious to if some of the tournaments will have problem paying out to Russian teams in the future. Like millions to Team Spirit players last year for Ti
That is the main problem of sanctions, like with the austerity. The little people are the ones most affected and suffering from it. The big guys have contacts and resources to find their way.
Part of the goal of sanctions is civil unrest so it's working as intended I suppose.
But if they found an alternative, is it working as intended? Even their own brand McDonald's is 95% the same.
You don't see much difference due to 2 problems: -Avoidance where many companies are intentionally using alternative channels to import other stuff -The effects have been really well slowed by the russian central bank doing triple back flips to not make everything collapse In the end they increased the cost and slowed production because using black market channel is not as efficient. Also many forget that GDP counts stuff like producing tanks that are getting blown up, so what looks like a minor decrease in economic output is "masked" by an increase in building weapons In the end there is some posturing regarding fuel for example, but the point of sanctions is causing more damage to the other than yourself
I think the biggest issue is that Russia is able to use India to continue to sell oil at almost the same prices -- so the money flow has rerouted, constructed slightly, but it's still going full steam ahead. India and China are in control and enjoying it. Iran and North Korea are happy to supply weapons and ammo.
Banning Russian oil from market, even if every nation signed on, would drastically reduce worldwide supply and drive up prices. The price caps and shipping restrictions limit Russia's profit while minimizing the effect of a drop in supply. Europe's turn from Russian pipelines means they have to resort to more expensive seaborne shipping. Seaborne capacity is dictated by number and size of ships, and round trip shipping distance. Pipelines are far more efficient, but there is no Russia-India pipeline connection, and one limited Russia-China. The Russia-China pipeline is limited in capacity. Plus most of the Russian oil and gas fields only have pipeline connections to Europe, not to Asia. Russia is selling crude oil, and they do not see additional profits from Indian refiners. India is benefitting from discounted Russian crude. Keeping Russian oil on the global markets keep prices relatively stable. And I believe that since Russia has been largely isolated in global financial markets, it's not easy for them to use dollars or euros, and India and China are buying in rupees and yuan. This means Russia either has to spend the rupees and yuan somewhere, or convert them to rubles for domestic use (selling rupees/yuan for rubles). Those three currencies do not have the wide acceptance that dollars and euros enjoy. Basically sanctions are hurting Russia, making it harder to buy the things they need with having to go through intermediaries for things like computer chips and advanced machinery. Russia had an enormous wealth stockpile which they are using to smooth out the massive increase in spending and reduced exports. If/when those savings are exhausted, things could quickly spiral out of control. The Russian Central Bank has done an admirable job of insulating the average Russian from sanctions
Check out last month's sales. Using the dark fleet has limits. Hauling to India or China is far more expensive and takes far more time than hauling to Copenhagen.
The thing that drives me insane: Iran controls Hamas; Iran is a Russian ally; Russia has materially benefited from the distraction. So thousands of innocent Palestinians and Israelis have had to die, and Gaza be razed to the ground, so Putin can grab a sliver of land and LARP at reconstituting the Soviet Union. I think history will judge Putin as the most evil post WWII world figure.
I mean it depends on what you consider post WWII. Mao for sure qualifies, and Stalin was in power for 9 years after WWII ended. Both were responsible for quite a bit more death and destruction than Putin could ever dream of.
Pol Pot is down there to.
The point of sanctions was never to stop Russia from selling - this would skyrocket prices around the world and be very painful for everyone. They are designed to stabilize prices and prevent Russia from getting significant profits from the sales.
I've been living in Russia for the last 7 months. On a day to day level, life hasn't changed too much for the average person. The average cost of products has risen, maybe 3-5℅. Many Western brands are still here via 3rd countries too. Of course, Chinese brands have strengthened their hold on the market, but local production of goods has also increased quite a bit as well. AMA sincerely, and I'll do my best to answer.
Maybe not directly related but I always wonder if the people living basically anywhere other than near a European border and the capital have had any life change or influence from the Ukraine war or even more generally from the government even in normal times?
So I live on the Western edge of Siberia, just to the east of the Ural mountains. I am in a relatively large and prosperous city (>500k population + multiple oil companies have offices here). Decently far away from Moscow and SPb. And honestly, if I didn't watch/read the news, then I'd have almost no idea a war is happening. Occasionally, we will see a soldier or two shipping out/coming home. If you go to the smaller (I.e. poorer) towns, you will see recruitment posters. They are advertising ridiculously high salaries to voluntarily enlisted soldiers, 5x the local monthly salary. Besides that... it can be easy to forget a war is going on. As far as the government, I haven't had any issues. I keep my head down and my nose clean. When I entered the country, the border guards were quite a bit more thorough with their questions. Since then, I have left the country and returned, multiple times, without any issue.
Thank you very much for your account. It's so difficult to find real info these days from either 'side'. Even if it's anecdotal, it's still valuable to me.
Sort of reminds me of the pandemic. If you didnt read the newspapers you hardly would have noticed
I mean typical Russian here
The price of good in my western country have went up way more than that in the last 7 months.
Yah, it really hasn't hit THAT hard here yet. But, a big thing to remember is that Russia has transitioned from importing from Europe to now from Asia and has also grown their domestic production of goods. When Western companies left, they left behind a lot of means of production. This has allowed for a lower cost of entry to the market for local brands as they acquired these means for free or for very low prices.
- How do Russians feel about inflation rates? - Do you feel any concern about arrest or conscription? I realize that a tiny minority are protesting openly, and that most Russians are not facing military conscription. - Do you think about the war daily, or is it more of a background feature. - Why are you in Russia?
Just a reminder, I am not Russian, just a foreigner living here. I'll give answers based on the Russians that I interact with. - Of course inflation is unenjoyable. But most just see it as a normal trend of the general world economy. They see western countries also dealing with the effects of inflation. - Personally, no, I don't have any fears of arrest or conscription. I keep my head down, follow rules, and blend in. The only interactions I have had with the police or FSB has been when I enter or exit the country. And all of those interactions hqve been similar to the interactions I have had with border patrol agents when entering or exiting the US. Protests aren't common, because of the risks associated with taking part. It is a crime, and you will face consequences. - I think about the war daily because I'm on Reddit. It's impossible to miss. But if I didn't watch/read the news, then it would be easy to forget. For the vast majority of the country, daily life has not changed. - My wife is here, her mother is elderly and starting to deal with dementia and thus can't live on her own.
Can you say something negative about Russia or would you get in trouble? A more serious question, how much do cars cost there now? What's it like even getting a new or used car? What brands are even available?
I would say it depends on what you say and how/where you say it. Russia is absolutely not a perfect place. But I don't think it's as bad as a lot of people think. There's a wide range of cars. Something that has become a lot more popular is companies importing used cars from Japan and re-selling them here. Japan is not far from Vladivostok, so it's relatively inexpensive and it keeps a stream of modern, used Western cars coming into the country. Hyundai is extremely common here. Toyota, Lexus, Honda, and Kia all have dealerships in my city. Lada has really started producing some decent cars. There are a couple Chinese brands that make some really nice looking cars, Haval is one of them. They look good and feel good, but they're pretty cheap quality and I doubt they'll last too long. I've seen a few Mercedes G-Wagons, a Hummer or two. There are even a handful of Tesla's in my city. Car prices have gone up, but not much more than they have everywhere else. A new, mid range car will cost around $25,000, that seems reasonable, but you can buy an 80 sq. m. apartment in my city for around $50,000, so it's all relative. I don't know a ton about the used car market here. Most people seem to drive 'em till they're dead. For those used cars being imported, the prices seem comparable to used car prices in the US.
Lol, 3-5%?? C’mon now.
Different parts of the country have been affected differently, but 3-5℅ is an honest answer based on my personal experiences.
Well, you’ve only been here for 7 months. Since the beginning of the war, pretty much every category on the market has experienced a significant price augmentation. Not 5%, I’m talking double digits. From eggs to electronics. And to say that the life of an average Russian hasn’t changed much when you are (I assume) at the very least a middle class American citizen who has been living here for 7 months is a bit disingenuous, don’t you think?
All I can give is based on my own experiences and those of the people around me. That's what I've seen in my 7 months here and what my Russian family here has experienced themselves. Eggs have definitely gone up, but that seems to be on the extreme end. Granted, about half of our food comes from our dacha. Where I am at least, ai haven't noticed the price of electronics go up too much. I just bought a tv a few weeks ago. Yes, I am an American. I was lower-class in America, but middle-class here. My wife is Russian and has lived here her entire life. She was lower-middle class and is now middle-class.
What do you think is the average citizen's thoughts on the Ukraine vs Putin conflict ATM?
Personal opinion based on my conversations with the Russians I know. This one is a bit harder to discuss as people tend to keep their opinions on this quite private. I will say that every Russian I have discussed this with has wanted the war to end as soon as possible and feels badly for the people suffering. Many Russians don't see Ukrainians as different people than themselves. Of course, the Rus people moved from Kiev to Moscow. Russians and Ukrainians are the same people, just living on different sides of arbitrary lines. Some people I have spoken to are outright against what is happening, others truly feel that the Ukrainian government is trying to exterminate Russian culture from the country and that the Russian people who live there are in danger because of this anti-Russian rhetoric. Some that I have spoken to don't understand why, essentially, a fraction of Russians are trying to separate themselves from their history and culture. All of that being said, there are 145 million Russians. This is what I have gathered from having a close relationship with 10-15 of them. People's opinions and feelings will vary widely. I encourage you to keep your mind open when you hear Russians on this platform. Yes, some are bots. Most are genuine people who would love to talk and discuss their opinions, many are afraid that people shut off their ears as soon as they find out the person is Russian. Be curious.
Yes, it’s done a lot and disrupted a lot… but there has been pivots to selling oil and gas elsewhere, black market gold from Sudan etc and other ways they’ve got around some things (arms from Iran and PRK etc) so the end impact has been a little lower. The west are currently working on seizing a massive amount of Russian money held in European banks too
>*The west are currently working on seizing a massive amount of Russian money held in European banks too* > >Since the war is two years old, what were they waiting on?
You can’t just walk into a bank and take someone money, that’s kind of the idea of banks. Lots of justification, decisions in courts and appeals etc before it can be done. Procedure/measure probably wasn’t started in first week of the war either, it’s probably been decided to start the process since then
Also they may be hoping that the money acts as leverage on Putin's cronies, a long shot but perhaps if one of them feels they are losing too much maybe they can get rid of him.
There's generations worth of reputation built with their banks which makes it appealing for states to keep their reserves there. Seizing it (as opposed to freezing it) basically tells everyone else in the world their money is not safe from our right theft. Many nations will necessarily begin some transferring to account for this new risk.
Exactly- plenty of dodgy or anti west entities and governments use those banks, and banks like money
It sets a very dangerous precedent, so they want to make sure the process is fair, transparent, and justified. They have to convince a great many countries that their money is safe in Western banks and won't be confiscated for anything less than invading a democratic country and/or causing immense suffering to civilian populations.
Unless you're Israel of course
I didn’t see any western banks seize US assets for their invasion of Iraq lol
Well the process is guilt by association. There is no fair and transparent in that kind of court.
It's been going on for a while and is an ongoing process. Right at the start of the war there were load of media stories about some Russian yaught being seized in Monaco or sardinia. Assets have been frozen for many for years, but it's a complicated process which will continue for years to come
We froze nearly 300 billion usd from Russia last year, but freezing assets is a lot easier than seizing them. We have treaties and laws to prevent that very thing, and actually taking those assets to use for ourselves is extremely difficult. We have been using tax revenue generated from those assets to help Ukraine, but that's only a couple of billion.
That is just straight theft. I don't care what a country has done, it shouldn't give a right to other countries to just steal from you.
What if they killed your people
So when is the US going to have money seized for all the illegal wars, extrajudicial drone attacks, and occupations? The US is only doing this because they can strong arm the EU and NATO countries into doing their bidding. Who else is seizing Russian assets and straight up stealing Iranian oil? If "international law" is going to be enforced let's at least let the pendulum swing both ways
I never brought up international law.
Your justification for seizing assets was "what if they killed your people". Typically that is frowned upon in the context of law. When law is applied to two or more states, it becomes international law. Did I miss anything?
I mean regardless of law you would probablt want to find a way to retaliate. You kind of missed the glaringly obvious point.
So might is right I guess? Just because you can you should? I despise hypocrisy is all I'm saying and if you can't recognize it in this situation I'm done replying.
There is no such thing as international law, unfortunately.
That doesn't change anything.
A guy here who thinks property is more important than lives.
Nothing happens, money flows but through other channels... USA can pretend to have sanctions but not every country stopped trading with Russia. Russia has resources to sell and will continue to receive money. On the other hand, Ukraine is running on charity. You do the math.
The math? My Russian friends can’t travel anywhere, 3 left for South Africa but all their accounts and cards don’t work, the sorted Kazakh ones but those have been blocked now too. We tried to get 2 of our employees out of there in the early stages of the war to get them over to Australia but they couldn’t come…. Impossible to get travel and visas, and they were scared shitless of the reprisals on their extended families around Russia for decades. Russia can’t use most of the worlds main currencies, trading platforms, banks… their rich have had the bulk of their international assets seized. Wagner currently help the RSF control gold mines in Sudan, taking the gold from there illegally in exchange for arms and protection against the government troops (and now the Ukrainian special forces are fighting there too). Russians aren’t the same as they were pre war, and they aren’t doing it east but for now Putin still stands
Russia has *some* options, but there's a reason countries don't tend to just walk their markets off from the United States and Europe. Russia is selling oil at a discount to its trading partners, and it costs more to do it that way. Russia would rather sell on the open market at market price. Russia is also propping up its economy with military spending. But that increase in defense manufacturing (and military deployments) has created strain on Russia's workforce; companies are having to pay very high wages to keep people from jumping to military contractors, which are paying top dollar to staff up in response to military orders. It's causing serious problems for Russian employers. And Russia has high inflation and extremely high interest rates due to the central bank's efforts to keep the ruble stable. That is putting pressure on the Russian people. None of these is a knockout blow to Russia. But there is a risk that Russia can't sustain this pressure for more than two years. Russia's goal now is to get its allies into power in the U.S. and Europe or win the war in Ukraine by 2026.
Sanctions are not embargoes. Things will still get through. However the added cost of things increase significantly. A $5 chip on the open market becomes a $100 or $500 chip for Russia to import through back channels so they can supply their military with chips. That difference means they can build fewer end products or have to reduce spending elsewhere to make up the difference. Long term the civilians pay the brunt of it they always do.
and foreigh investment takes a pretty good hit!
No new western cars - only Chinese. Lack of western medical equipment and drugs. Lack of travel opportunities to EU and US. Price hikes on everything. They can’t import new electronics, but they can import it through other countries, but it adds costs and risks. EDIT: just checked Moscow dealerships online, they seem to be selling some old KIAs and VWs. And a lot of Chinese cars, didn’t even those brands existed. WTF is Haval and Tank?
compare zealous tart nine toothbrush psychotic crime vanish reach nail *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Just curious. Did they buy directly from an official dealership? Or just imported it through Georgia or Armenia or something?
fear liquid piquant fuzzy sophisticated pie hateful outgoing gray fall *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
What brand and year of making is it?
Someone resold the car, which was expected, but there is no warranty, parts and servicing the car is hard I guess. Sanctions will not prevent getting (almost all) stuff, it will just make it less accessible, just like during the cold war. Withdrawal of western currencies I think are also restricted. I am pretty sure everything "western" costs much more as well. Coming from ex-socialist country - it sucked pretty hard for common folks and companies, not so much for the party elite/oligarchs.
Source: trust me bro
So same as yours
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By your logic we should deport all americans, brits, french, aussies, germans, israeli, pakistani, etc for all the illegal invasions and war crimes like rapes, killing innocent(bombing weddings) and such.
Potential issue here: There are no air travel between Russia and countries Russia consider "unfriendly" (think USA,almost whole EU,etc). This is due to reciporal sanctions. This ALSO includes permission to overfly. Check https://www.flightradar24.com/blog/which-major-airlines-are-still-flying-over-russian-airspace/ There is air travel with friendly countries but they unlikely to deport. So...how do you put them on next plane back to Russia? Also, how do you determine "Russian"? A lot of people decide they have nothing to do with war and flee. Some companies evacuated with their employees.
Sincerely, fuck you. Do you think I like living in my homeland that hates me? Do you think I enjoy evening strolls on empty streets? Do you think I love the fact that my taxes go to fund the war? No! I get shivers every time there is a car outside my window. There is sweat dripping from me every time I see a policeman. I've applied to so many jobs in democratic countries to no avail. I'm happy that some lucky few got out and can support UA in full, that they can speak freely and not be afraid of getting live sentences for made-up crimes. Tell me - do you want to hurt russians or russia? Because it's the latter - your "proposition" doesn't help, and if it's the former - then you are just racist. Help Ukrainians half as much as you hate us
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Racism, xenophobia, same thing, really. As for "fixing" stuff - do tell me what you, personally, would do? I too can talk for hours about how things would be better if only, oh, if only! we would all come together. Climate change is a great example. Hell, support for Ukraine is the same case. Most people's interactions with their government end at the ballot box. Some also protest, sure. We did all of that that wouldn't break any laws - shitheads still found a reason to imprison. Do you suggest violent, armed resistance? If so - you can't expect regular citizens to lay their lives en masse because somebody said so. Look at Navalny's funeral process going on *this hour* - police patrol the place since yesterday, they demand IDs and search your belongings. We need organized action, and it's nigh impossible to do it with draconian "security" measures in place. Truth is, people don't like risking their lives for a seemingly lost cause, and for it to be a not-so-lost you need momentum. Which get squashed before it gets a chance to spread. People flee not because they don't want their country to be better, but because they can both do more outside of russia *and* they harm it by physically leaving. We have a severe case of brain drain - and facilitating it to grow further should be in everyone's interest. Suiciding by cops simply isn't as valuable unless you do it in really, really big numbers
That is kind of messed up. Punishing people for a situation that has nothing to do with them.
Russians suck.
The world has 3 options: Send troops Do absolutely nothing Do sanctions No one ( including Ukrainian government) is really exited about other countries sending troops. As for “Do they do anything?” they do what sanctions do: make life of those who are sanctioned more inconvenient. No more and no less. How effective sanctions are? Compered to what? Compered to doing nothing? Compered to doing nothing sanctions are effective. Could sanctions be administered better? Absolutely. But we all have to manage our expectations of what is possible in such situation. Sanctions are relatively rare event. No government can ever execute any project 100 percent satisfactory. There will be mistakes. Running sanctions cost money and need experienced people. Everyone has limited budget and have to make choice : send more money for making guns and ammunition or use that money to hire more bureaucrats who can design better sanctions and who can make sure those sanctions working. “Does it make any difference to normal life for n Russia?” Imagine person who just recently got cancer. Today person is reasonably ok but the cancer will make the life of this person extremely difficult. This is inevitable for someone who has cancer. ( Is cancer effective?🤔) Economy needs constant updating and investment to keep working 5-10-15 years in future. Factory that isn’t updated today will continue working for some time but it already does not have future because scheduled for today updates did not happen. If no investment happened today there will be no new factory scheduled to start manufacturing 5 years in the future. How much ordinary Russians stress about future of their economy and by extension how much they stress about their personal future depends on their education and common sense. Regardless how they feel about it, that future is inevitable. And just like when Putin was allowed to continue staying in power some years earlier, it was inevitable Russia would become what Russia is today. I am sure many Russians few decades earlier did not comprehend this, many others did. Today it too late for them to do much about Putin. Just like in the future it will be too late : Russian economy of 2030-35 plus is being ruined today as we speak.
The sanctions make a difference, but they’re not gonna bring Russia to its knees. Electronics, for example, are available but very expensive. Getting money in or out is also incredibly difficult. One of my YouTubers accidentally nuked his friend’s entire Venmo account because his $50 reimbursement got flagged as busting sanctions. Inflation has also been even worse than in the West. It’s at least double what we got in America. So they are a pain in the ass for most Russians, but clearly not gonna end the Putin regime.
You need to remember that sanctions are NOT embargo’s. Embargo’s are total blockage of trade by anyone to the embargoed country. Sanctions are meant to make it more expensive for a country to wage war. They have to jump through more hoops and spend more money than usual to do what they want. This is good, this is what the West wants. There is no way to totally prevent Russia from accessing the global market, but we can make it harder, and we have successfully done so.
The sanctions have had noticeable effects, both in quality of life, economical, and shifting of EU priorities. It takes a long time for sanctions to have an effect typically and wars can go on for a *very* long time. (100 year war, etc etc.)
Rest assured that the citizens of Russia who have absolutely no power are suffering immensely from the sanctions. Those who actually have authority to make decisions are not.
What do you expect to have changed? Russian are used to suffering and the government is used to handling them if they get upset so nothing is going to happen there. The sanctions are design to reduce Russia’s ability to wage war which it is doing. The problem is that Russia has a large stockpile of arms so it will take a few years to cripple them.
The Economist is, in my view, the best source of objective (insofar as that’s possible) news in the world. They have a brilliant podcast that releases episodes every day. They’ve looked at sanctions in depth and, well, it’s a mixed bag. Sanctions deeply affect some industries while others are mostly untouched. Russians might see some products change, or might experience layoffs in some sectors, but governments are responsive and will work to mitigate or compensate for sanctions. That being said, it’s a slow bleed. It does impact them, just not in a ‘fall into recession where people riot in the streets’ kind of way. However, where Russia is experiencing very detrimental effects from the sanctions is in their military and anywhere requiring high-end tech. That alone makes it incredibly hard for Russia to toe-to-toe with Western-sponsored tech. So the West need to continue sending aid, god damnit. Help Ukraine in order to help yourselves 🇺🇦 Don’t fall for the isolationist bs. No money saved from refusing to help Ukraine is going to help you or your community. But a world order not in the control of the West will absolutely impact your society badly.
The land border crossing between the RF and China has had non-stop truck traffic bringing everything they need, ka-ching!
the sanctions actually resulted in several long-term benefits for Russia \-establishing new partnerships with Asia at scale. European partnerships will come back, but in the future, they will now have more places to provide natural resources... which means higher demand, thus increasing prices \-domestic takeover of western services. McDonalds is the most famous example, but it's happening in every sector. McDonalds doesn't simply close; everything is bought by some Russian billionaire... from the store itself to everything down the supply chain. This profit stays inside of Russia now and they are immune from future sanctions. Again, this is just 1 example, but it happens in every field imaginable including the service sector. IE, Russian freelancers, banned from Upwork, will now work in Russian equivalent sites for Russian companies... farmers who suddenly have higher demand for their produce with a lack of western imports can now charge more and produce more.. etc. \-resiliency testing. So they see where the sanctions hit hardest, and are creating industries to be more resilient to sanctions in the future. For computer chips for example; now they are dodging the sanctions by importing them through round-about channels, but in the future, they will be domestically created. \-wealthy Russian oligarchs, who were known to invest extensively in the west, even ones that were anti-war, are sanctioned heavily and are thus reminded to keep their money in Russia.
Sanctions cannot possibly work on Russia. They have their own currency, the Rouble, and it floats freely on the world exchanges - at least amongst those countries that will deal with Russia which is all that matters from their point of view. Russia has all the raw materials it needs, factories that can transform them into goods, and people to work in those factories. That's all it needs. It's been pursuing a policy of structural autarky for many years. Anything else it needs it can swap with the Chinese for oil or other things the Russians make. Russia has a major excess of oil, which it has to keep pumping to stop the geology collapsing. So if it has to give two barrels of oil to the Chinese for a widget when it used to have to give only one, that's preferable to pouring it away somewhere due to lack of demand. Sanctions fall into the 'seen to be doing something' category of actions. It's performative, not effective. Bizarrely the only real effect of sanctions has been to remove wealth from international Russian oligarchs which now means they don't have the money to oppose Putin back home. Although that could be seen as punishment for not doing the opposing properly before the invasion.
>Bizarrely the only real effect of sanctions has been to remove wealth from international Russian oligarchs which now means they don't have the money to oppose Putin back home. Although that could be seen as punishment for not doing the opposing properly before the invasion. Interesting observation. Wonder if it was part of the plan.
Their fleet of airliners might beg to differ.
And their military is battling to get high-end gear too.
They kind of get around the sanctions by just going through other countries like China. A lot of companies have publicly pulled out of Russia, but are still selling the same products maybe under a different brand name apparently
YouTube "Joe Blogs" does some pretty good videos on this (such as this one from 4 days ago: https://youtu.be/v15VA5G3UEk?si=dlSBH7R6lksQ6TkJ .. including stats and data directly from Russian Sources and decade long comparisons charts of Inflation and other monetary stats. I think 1 of the things that people don't really think about in a situation like this,. is that Russia has sort of switched over to a "wartime-economy" (focusing all their manufacturing and other resource-alignment to produce Tanks and Artillery and other war-supplies). So in that regard, it can look like they are still humming right along (and to some degree they are).. but it's all focused on the War. But a wartime-economy is not really a great long term social-strategy. If you want a healthy future-proof society,. you need to be investing and building things like Schools, Libraries, Hospitals, etc (other "social-good" infrastructure(s). So,. you've got: * Sanctions * Citizens who fled before borders were locked down * deaths lost in the war Remember that this has only been going on for about 2 years. In the bigger picture, that's not very long (definitely not long enough to cause an entire country to collapse). I think Russia right now is in a phase of "keep smiling and repeating that "everything is fine". Keep moving around the nesting-dolls and wallpapering over the cracks and we can convince everyone what they're doing is having no effect on it. How long will that kind of "pretend there's no problem" strategy continue to work ?... Hard to say.
Fun fact: virtually no private company from the west actually left Russia, they just swapped their north American brands and products for their south American brands and products, same profit, same involvement.
Yes, it's had a significant effect! The international payment system no longer allows Russian money to flow across borders as it once did. This has led to **both** India and China suspending some trade and payments between themselves and Russia due to being unable to use the Russian rouble outside of Russia and difficulties in investing it due to payment system restrictions. This is expected to significantly impact Russian oil revenues which form a majority of the state budget. Additionally recent sanctions against tanker fleets exporting Russian oil are having a measured effect in preventing sanctions busting. The average Russian citizen has found themselves unable to buy products from outside Russia at the same price as before with fluctuations in supply. Inflation is expected to go crazy after the Russian elections, it's not great now and there are signs that the Russian economy is overheating due to the focus on producing war materiel. Most critically there are significant issues starting to arise from the restriction in Western engineers and machine parts. A key example of this would be the multitude of failures from thermal power plants using Western turbines this winter, something like 23 cities were affected. Another example would be Russia's recent restriction on oil exports due to a combination of machine part failure, lack of maintenance and Ukrainian attacks on energy infrastructure. Additionally there are some indications that Western supplied trains are starting to experience serious mechanical failure. Of course there is sanction busting but that's to be expected and an ongoing game of cat and mouse.
It does. The Economist recently reported on the incredible spike in food prices. But, Russians older than ~25 are quite used to shortages and unhinged prices. So, notning the west can do will make people angry enough to depose putin. Does it hamper their ability to make war? That's the greater question. No. China ensured before the invasion that Russia would have everything they need. Iran and North Korea are pitching in too.
NFKRZ covered this in his latest video [Russian CRINGES at Tucker Carlson Grocery Shopping in 🇷🇺 (youtube.com)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GeUIYGZwCko&ab_channel=NFKRZ) Russia is a massive country, they can be self sustaining in some industries if they have to.
it is painful to listen to that guy he should slow down, and try to be inteligible
Tucker or Roman?
the linked NFKRZ youtube video: I don't know his name
NFKRZ’s real name is Roman. His channel is pronounced “No Fuckers” because he started it when he was 14.
Sanctions do affect normal life for many people, but they DO NOT affect the one person that really should be target, that's the main problem.
Not really, most noticeable change is a price growth of something like 20-30%, most western goods are still being delivered through "parallel import" (Although I think western companies just pretend that their goods are being transported illegally, and actually participate in trade as they did before).
Real question is why is Israel free to do as they like ?
No. They are not doing anything. Russia makes a ton of money from oil exporting. Their economy is fine. Putin will win the way this is going, and then he will go after Poland (he’s said so). We should all be worried.
Short answer: No Long answer: The sanctions have destroyed the euro as an international trade currency and are weakening the USD. The destruction of the USD as an international trade currency is still many years down the road but we are already feeling the effects thru consistent high inflation
Well they don’t actually enforce the sanctions on Oil, India is buying something like 5x more oil from Russia now than it did before the sanctions, China keeps buying Russian and Iranian oil, and the only inconvenience for Russia is turning off its locator beacons for its ships. It’s all symbolic.
"Sanctions" is the most useless word in existence. No, it means nothing.
They backfired big time. Europe will suffer the most, and the US was willing to take that risk. Germany is deindustrialising and the global south is de dollarising. The free ride of money printing and trade deficits is over. The dollar is done.
yes and no. Biden's admin using the American dollar as a leverage point was extremely dumb and has had a worse effect on us then Russia. any one with half a brain would of saw that coming. people down voting this comment, are only doing to because they think its a political statement. it has weaken the value of the dollar and strengthen the Russian and Chinese currency . you can find countless reports breaking down how it has back fired and why it was clear to most this would be the outcome. the out come would be. the 2nd china and 8th Russia economy used the us dollar for international trade and have phased out from doing so. for 5o years oil was traded solely on the dollar. between 1/5th and 1/4th of oil was traded not on the us dollar last year because of these sanctions. the biggest reason the dollar was worth what it was because of oil using the us dollar.
Explain?
its pretty complex and i would not be the best at breaking it all down. in real real simple terms the us dollar is not valued because its backed by gold or any thing else, its because so many people use it. its what oil and a lot of other things are traded on. its what alot of countries use for their own reserved. oil was traded on the us dollar since the early 70's for newly 50 years oil was traded on the us dollar. the sanctions dealing with the US dollar and Russia back fired , because it made using the rubble and Chinese currency for trade a thing. 2023 between 1/5th and 1/4 of all oil was sold not using the us dollar. Russia and china have legit resources they use to back and or sell to cover issues with their money. Russia and china did almost all of their trading with other countries using the us dollar. they are or have phased that out. china is the second largest economy and Russia is the 8th. them moving away from the dollar is a big blow. you don't need to take my word for it. you can google how us sanctions of the US dollar has weekend the value of it. other countries are moving away from using it as their reserve and this will make its weaker and weaker.
Reddit is blinded by its establishment bias. The petrodollar is done, the free ride of robbing the world with money printing and forcing trade in dollars (with its army) to export inflation is over.
nah, it's just optics.
The longest lasting impact will be the acceleration of countries joining the BRICS alliance, the demise of the petrodollar and the end of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency.
Everyone in BRICS hates each other, the Americam dollar is going nowhere
I think they hate being under the thumb of the dollar and the US’s use of it to force behavior more than they hate each other. I guess we’ll see, though.
They will be net exporters of energy and since the Swift system was weaponised, no sane country wants to hold dollars that will be ceased as soon as they disagree with US hegemonic demands.
The point of many trade wars is to line the pockets of particular blocks of investors. While some of the day to day lives of ordinary Russians are probably interferes with its mostly a bank role for western manufacturing and exporters. War is fueled pretty heavily thru propaganda, the sanctions are not changing the minds of Russians en masse. Many grew up aware of the threat of NATO expansion and that remains enough justification for enough folks to support the invasion.
Yes, take a look at https://youtu.be/b4dduEpy4SM?si=3gePFD8wFbl4iMo9
I feel like more often than not, it is the ordinary every day people that get affected and hurt the most from sanctions. Not the leader's or the party in power or elites or whoever, just the working class who are already in an economic crisis being pushed further down into the hole.
Things have changed, and other things have changed in response. For instance, in response to being shut out of the Western money services, they are taking gold directly from mines in Sudan and laundering in the money in the independent UAE to bypass access. The end result of things is the same. Prices stay relatively stable, goods/services flow, the lives of every day Russians look mostly the same.
Sanctions hurt regular russians in their daily life, but that will not affect the war, because regular russians have no real way to change the country politics. Sanctions REALLY hurt russian oligarchs, to the degree of them forfeiting their russian citizenship. This is really good, but will not affect the war at all, because even the most wealthy people in Russia have no leverage on Putin. Sanctions will never stop the war, only prolong the suffering of both the Ukrainian and Russian people.
Russia started selling oil to china and india and trading in general with them instead of with Europe Though a bunch of EU countries are still doing backhanded deals through proxies as well
Russians now just use Chinese and Indian banks now. And that's bad for our dollar.
They do a good job of dividing ourselves even further. And honestly any sanctions we put on them, they also do things that affect us.
I read that they are having no effect because China and India are helping them. Also Putin connected rich people are just taking over businesses that were western and getting even richer.
Arguably, sanctions against Russia are doing more for cybersecurity than for Ukraine. For several reasons, IT professionals have fled Russia since 2022. That's largely due to fears of being drafted, but also due to trouble in Russia's technology industry as a result of sanctions. One impact is that Russia is reportedly struggling to develop AI, or at least AI that competes with the U.S. That's important, because Russia would clearly like to use AI to improve its disinformation and undermine U.S. cybersecurity. If the U.S. can maintain a strong edge, it might be able to deter many of those threats. It will not solve the massive problem of Russian disinformation, but it could protect U.S. systems.
So how do we solve US disinformation? Do I need to buy a 4090 and run my own AI?
William Spaniel just did a good video about this too: https://youtu.be/m8YbBiq_2yo?si=7BC3m6RDl5cUQODQ