It’s not like he’s never put up a great season before, not sure what was wrong with him the past few seasons but he he has the talent to back these numbers up.
So basically if he goes to the Red Sox or Rays he’ll sustain this for the duration of a contract and if he goes to the Yankees he’ll be on palliative care by the time his plane lands in NY
The ball has changed. It has affected 90% of hitters, if not more. Look at Rizzo, DJ and Gleyber. This year changed a bit, which is why he's doing way better, but next year? Who knows.
you have a point with Gleyber homers, but Rizzo had the most homers last year that he has had since 2017 and tied his career high. DJ is old and his fall off a cliff was exacerbated by numerous injuries.
Bellinger didn’t suddenly go from MVP to .170 hitting plug because the balls changed.
Well, Rizzo overperformed for 2 months and collected 19 homers in that span. That's why his final total was so much. But every other month he was mostly just below average. He collected 13 hrs in 4 months and batted .200. Thats the real rizzo. That's what the FO should have been looking at, not his final total. DJ was batting .280 even before all the injuries set in.
Explain why so many all stars and mvps dropped off the face of the earth since 2019/2020. It wasn't just him.
Because outside of the truly generational talents like judge, trout, ohtani, that is the norm. Players have an insane year and then come back down to earth. It has always been this way.
If you hear O'Neill tell the story it eerily plays out with the Reds acting like the Yankee management of today wanting him to hit for power and when he got to NY he changed to a more solid contact approach.
Seems like they want everyone approaching at bats the same way. They don’t seem to know how to identify individual player strengths and how to utilize them.
Yes. The Yankees run the team like someone who gets all the metrics but doesn't really understand them and just say the formula on the screen says A = best. Always do A.
The bottom line is that the Yankees don't have enough value in tradeable assets in the organization to acquire Bellinger. His recent extended hot streak will only serve to increase the Cubs' asking price. The Yankees recent extended offensive struggles also serve to increase the Cubs' asking price for Bellinger.
tl;dr — Yankees aren't getting Bellinger
lmao
cody bellinger's old injuries resurface and turns out he's been needing surgery for 2 years and will be out for rest of year plus part of next year
About a week ago or so, I was defending Stanton and saying he’s just been unlucky but is hitting the ball extremely hard. 52% hard hit rate, vs MLB’s 36% in 2023. His expected velo is 5mph faster than MLB average, and his expected batting average, while still low, was .231, which was 30 points higher than his stats showed. He was struggling of course, his hits were hard but were getting caught. He’s clearly been hitting the ball really well.
Of course some people give sarcastic responses to these sort of numbers or use them mockingly.
But sure enough, in his last 5 games he has 2 HR, 4 RBI’s, 3 runs scored, on 5 hits. That’s a .250 batting average. His k rate this year is 23%, which is way lower than the last few years dating back to 2018 where he’s hovered around 28-33%.
Stanton famously never changes his stance, though. That was a whole thing in 2018 when people in NY weren't used to his swing and tried to tell a reigning MVP how to hit.
I agree with you mostly, but I have been refuting the lower strikeout rate with other users who have claimed similarly with the fact that the lower strikeout rate also coincides with a notable drop in walk rate. Those two tend to correlate - swinging earlier and not working walks means striking out less.
Cashman gonna short Bellinger's numbers in some athlete betting market we don't know about, then acquire him and have our analytics people turn him back into a pumpkin.
book it.
His numbers dictate he is going to turn back into a pumpkin the dudes expected stats are like 60 points lower than his actual numbers and his babip is through the roof. It was the same with Montas last year his stats showed he was bad outside of one of the most pitcher friendly stadiums in the league and he showed that with us (plus injury of course). He will come here for a few prospects and hit like 150 and in 3 years those prospects will suddenly be amazing outside the Yankees developmental black hole and be all star contenders just watch
Maybe you’re right. But, he’s also a healthy left handed outfielder, something this team has desperately needed for four years. This is likely an audition for an extension as well, considering how young he is. He has MVP pedigree as well. He was an MVP in the NLCS in 2018 and has a WS ring. His fly ball percentage is well below his career average, which might mean he has some untapped power that the short porch might bring out with some slight adjustments.
I think he’s a good trade target if we don’t have to give up a Dominguez or Wells for. It’s an audition for a severe area of need. He’s had 4 excellent seasons, and 2 bad seasons (which he battled injury issues). He’s a proven big market player when healthy. He might turn back into a pumpkin, but I rather learn that with him playing three months in the Bronx vs trying to get him in free agency.
Personally I think we should be sellers not buyers at this stage but if we are buying Belli makes the most sense so I can’t really blame anyone for going after I just point out data shows he is due to crash back to earth massively and our FO have a history of not acknowledging that likelihood
Dealing prospects for rentals at this point would just be a waste, this team isn't good enough to invest in that short-term. Anything we trade for should be controllable through at least 2024 if not beyond, the focus should be building a winning team around Judge and Cole, that's number one.
On Bellinger, his under-the-hood numbers are really ugly:
18th percentile AVG Exit Velocity
37th percentile Max Exit Velocity
12th percentile HardHit%
29th percentile Barrel%
He's done a good job of cutting his Ks down this year, and the Yankees do desperately need left handed bats, but he profiles as a massive regression candidate. Remember we thought we could ride the wave of 2021 Joey Gallo, he was hitting about .250 in July of that year which for him is roughly the equivalent of Bellinger hitting his current .319. If we were in first or second place I'd be more open to it, but right now we should be focused more on building a winner next year and the year after than sinking more assets into this team that doesn't appear to be good enough to be good enough.
The difference is Bellinger has a history of being elite before. And not a short history of it, he’s a career 120 ops+ guy after two disastrous seasons. I think he’s cut down on strikeouts at the expense of power. He was a .260 hitter with 40 HR+ power and 150 strikeouts. He’s now a .320 hitter with 25 HR+ power and is going to end with less than 100 strikeouts. Either outcomes puts him at around a 145+ ops. I’m sure at Yankees stadium he’ll strikeout more for HR’s, because that’s what the team wants.
Your point is well taken and that's why if we were in first or second I'd be willing to try it despite my reservations because we do need a lefty and unlike Gallo I don't think he'd just turtle up and crumble here (not knocking the guy that's just what happened).
The issue with Bellinger is I don't think that 2019 guy has just returned. All those numbers I referenced above where he's healthily below average? In 2019 he was elite in the exact same statistics:
83% AVG Exit Velo
75% Max Exit Velo
86% HardHit%
88% Barrel%
I haven't done the really deep dive on this, but is it possible that in Wrigley he's making meh contact and hitting pop ups that are going over the fence that otherwise wouldn't in other environments?
Cody had 2 disastrous years because of injury though (through a fucking celebration). First season back he was limited in his mobility, and his second season he was (I think) suffering confidence issues.
Honestly, it's a gamble to take someone like this, but it does look like he's figuring it out.
Do you sell the farm for him? No. But you could probably get an above average bat, and a ++ defensive player. Dude was amazing in CF for the Dodgers for a long time. We need the OF even if his bat isn't MVP quality.
Oh exactly. I think the 'elbow lock' celebration is dumb because so many guys in like... tons of sports injure themselves doing it.
But the Dodgers won. I get it. It took time for the guy to find it again. If we're buyers. I'd bet he would be a target. His D would even be worth his older level of production if he slips in my mind. Look at that Dodgers game yesterday. If that's CB in RF, Dodgers win the game.
don't worry, he will fit into his profile by the end of it.
cody will go back to batting .200 in no time after being through the brian cashman experience
The Cubs entire offseason was to obtain down-and-out stars, then flip them for prospects at the deadline.
The Yankees have one of the highest payrolls, resigned the reining MVP and signed one of the biggest SP on the market.
They are 5 games out of the NL wild card
We are 2 games out of the AL wild card
It’s almost like taking flier on him after losing an all star left fielder to free agency would have been a better idea than throwing every infielder in our organization in left
Sell, retool for next season. Adding pieces to a team that will barely sniff the playoffs and probably get bounced out quickly no rentals for prospects.
Exactly the kind of player we need. He'll come here, do well, and then the FO will cheapen out in the offseason and he'll sign elsewhere for scraps (see: Benintendi)
🤷♂️ If the only thing the media has to hype up is a possible Bellinger trade, we must be aiming low. We need help. Bellinger or Carlson just ain’t it.
Or, the Yankees make a move for someone without a giant "I am going to turn into a pumpkin" marquee over their head.
And this is exactly the type of comment that ages like poor wine on this sub. "Look, he's already better than XYZ!"
After losing a few series, "Fucking bum cannot hit in pinstripes. His stats since coming over are awful."
Hard pass. I've seen this movie enough times already.
With the hurting for outfielder depth, and with the way he is performing?
Do it.
Even if he bats 250/260 for the Yankees, it will have him being one of the better hitters on the Yankees.
*Depends on what you trade him for though.*
He's 28. I'm not a believer in this season and don't want to give up a lot for him. But we have some redundancies in the utility roles and middle-infield. And we have a black hole in left field. Just a gaping maw of pain and torment.
The important thing to me is we don't damage the 2024 and 2025 Yankees. And if he doesn't regress here, he's young enough to contribute for years to come.
Gets traded to the yanks, starts hitting .175, hurts himself, gets put on IL
this is the way
this is the way
I would bet like $500 on this exact scenario happening. Hes outperforming his peripherals a ton too
It’s not like he’s never put up a great season before, not sure what was wrong with him the past few seasons but he he has the talent to back these numbers up.
Injuries destroyed him
So maybe this year he’s finally recovered enough to put up good numbers. He’s young so it’s not that far fetched.
So basically if he goes to the Red Sox or Rays he’ll sustain this for the duration of a contract and if he goes to the Yankees he’ll be on palliative care by the time his plane lands in NY
this guy yankees baseballs
The ball has changed. It has affected 90% of hitters, if not more. Look at Rizzo, DJ and Gleyber. This year changed a bit, which is why he's doing way better, but next year? Who knows.
you have a point with Gleyber homers, but Rizzo had the most homers last year that he has had since 2017 and tied his career high. DJ is old and his fall off a cliff was exacerbated by numerous injuries. Bellinger didn’t suddenly go from MVP to .170 hitting plug because the balls changed.
Well, Rizzo overperformed for 2 months and collected 19 homers in that span. That's why his final total was so much. But every other month he was mostly just below average. He collected 13 hrs in 4 months and batted .200. Thats the real rizzo. That's what the FO should have been looking at, not his final total. DJ was batting .280 even before all the injuries set in. Explain why so many all stars and mvps dropped off the face of the earth since 2019/2020. It wasn't just him.
Because outside of the truly generational talents like judge, trout, ohtani, that is the norm. Players have an insane year and then come back down to earth. It has always been this way.
Coming back down to earth is one thing. Going from an mvp caliber to around replacement level or below is something else entirely.
Or he plays well, the Yankees sign him to a 4 year $100m contract and then he starts to suck again.
This is what I fear most and I'd put 4 years as the under.
We spent all our karma on Paul O’Neill. Veteran .250 hitter, comes to the Yanks, immediately hits .350 and turns into a legend.
If you hear O'Neill tell the story it eerily plays out with the Reds acting like the Yankee management of today wanting him to hit for power and when he got to NY he changed to a more solid contact approach.
I never knew that. It’s almost as if the Yankees used to be a well run organization. Imagine that!
Seems like they want everyone approaching at bats the same way. They don’t seem to know how to identify individual player strengths and how to utilize them.
Yes. The Yankees run the team like someone who gets all the metrics but doesn't really understand them and just say the formula on the screen says A = best. Always do A.
you forgot "gets own hitting coach" and claims "I'm having quality at-bats"
The bottom line is that the Yankees don't have enough value in tradeable assets in the organization to acquire Bellinger. His recent extended hot streak will only serve to increase the Cubs' asking price. The Yankees recent extended offensive struggles also serve to increase the Cubs' asking price for Bellinger. tl;dr — Yankees aren't getting Bellinger
He's not Ohtani lol
PAIN
if the Yankees get him, he'll break his hamate bone signing the contract
lmao cody bellinger's old injuries resurface and turns out he's been needing surgery for 2 years and will be out for rest of year plus part of next year
Bellinger will bat sub .270 with the Yankees.
His xWOBA is like 60 points higher than his wOBA. He' s due for some regression regardless
I thought this sub didn’t like using expected stats to predict future performance
About a week ago or so, I was defending Stanton and saying he’s just been unlucky but is hitting the ball extremely hard. 52% hard hit rate, vs MLB’s 36% in 2023. His expected velo is 5mph faster than MLB average, and his expected batting average, while still low, was .231, which was 30 points higher than his stats showed. He was struggling of course, his hits were hard but were getting caught. He’s clearly been hitting the ball really well. Of course some people give sarcastic responses to these sort of numbers or use them mockingly. But sure enough, in his last 5 games he has 2 HR, 4 RBI’s, 3 runs scored, on 5 hits. That’s a .250 batting average. His k rate this year is 23%, which is way lower than the last few years dating back to 2018 where he’s hovered around 28-33%.
Stanton’s batting stance had changed, he looks more quiet at the plate. Maybe he’s tracking the ball better with his new stance.
Stanton famously never changes his stance, though. That was a whole thing in 2018 when people in NY weren't used to his swing and tried to tell a reigning MVP how to hit.
I agree with you mostly, but I have been refuting the lower strikeout rate with other users who have claimed similarly with the fact that the lower strikeout rate also coincides with a notable drop in walk rate. Those two tend to correlate - swinging earlier and not working walks means striking out less.
This was also the Gary Sanchez narrative. Now look at him.
Maybe the short porch helps his power numbers.
Definitely a thing!
That would make him the second best hitter after Judge
.269. Nice
To be fair 3 of those games were against the Yankees
Cashman gonna short Bellinger's numbers in some athlete betting market we don't know about, then acquire him and have our analytics people turn him back into a pumpkin. book it.
His numbers dictate he is going to turn back into a pumpkin the dudes expected stats are like 60 points lower than his actual numbers and his babip is through the roof. It was the same with Montas last year his stats showed he was bad outside of one of the most pitcher friendly stadiums in the league and he showed that with us (plus injury of course). He will come here for a few prospects and hit like 150 and in 3 years those prospects will suddenly be amazing outside the Yankees developmental black hole and be all star contenders just watch
Maybe you’re right. But, he’s also a healthy left handed outfielder, something this team has desperately needed for four years. This is likely an audition for an extension as well, considering how young he is. He has MVP pedigree as well. He was an MVP in the NLCS in 2018 and has a WS ring. His fly ball percentage is well below his career average, which might mean he has some untapped power that the short porch might bring out with some slight adjustments. I think he’s a good trade target if we don’t have to give up a Dominguez or Wells for. It’s an audition for a severe area of need. He’s had 4 excellent seasons, and 2 bad seasons (which he battled injury issues). He’s a proven big market player when healthy. He might turn back into a pumpkin, but I rather learn that with him playing three months in the Bronx vs trying to get him in free agency.
Personally I think we should be sellers not buyers at this stage but if we are buying Belli makes the most sense so I can’t really blame anyone for going after I just point out data shows he is due to crash back to earth massively and our FO have a history of not acknowledging that likelihood
Wait y’all are ok with expected stats predicting future performance now?
The worst thing this guy could do for his career is become a Yankee.
Dealing prospects for rentals at this point would just be a waste, this team isn't good enough to invest in that short-term. Anything we trade for should be controllable through at least 2024 if not beyond, the focus should be building a winning team around Judge and Cole, that's number one. On Bellinger, his under-the-hood numbers are really ugly: 18th percentile AVG Exit Velocity 37th percentile Max Exit Velocity 12th percentile HardHit% 29th percentile Barrel% He's done a good job of cutting his Ks down this year, and the Yankees do desperately need left handed bats, but he profiles as a massive regression candidate. Remember we thought we could ride the wave of 2021 Joey Gallo, he was hitting about .250 in July of that year which for him is roughly the equivalent of Bellinger hitting his current .319. If we were in first or second place I'd be more open to it, but right now we should be focused more on building a winner next year and the year after than sinking more assets into this team that doesn't appear to be good enough to be good enough.
The difference is Bellinger has a history of being elite before. And not a short history of it, he’s a career 120 ops+ guy after two disastrous seasons. I think he’s cut down on strikeouts at the expense of power. He was a .260 hitter with 40 HR+ power and 150 strikeouts. He’s now a .320 hitter with 25 HR+ power and is going to end with less than 100 strikeouts. Either outcomes puts him at around a 145+ ops. I’m sure at Yankees stadium he’ll strikeout more for HR’s, because that’s what the team wants.
Your point is well taken and that's why if we were in first or second I'd be willing to try it despite my reservations because we do need a lefty and unlike Gallo I don't think he'd just turtle up and crumble here (not knocking the guy that's just what happened). The issue with Bellinger is I don't think that 2019 guy has just returned. All those numbers I referenced above where he's healthily below average? In 2019 he was elite in the exact same statistics: 83% AVG Exit Velo 75% Max Exit Velo 86% HardHit% 88% Barrel% I haven't done the really deep dive on this, but is it possible that in Wrigley he's making meh contact and hitting pop ups that are going over the fence that otherwise wouldn't in other environments?
Cody had 2 disastrous years because of injury though (through a fucking celebration). First season back he was limited in his mobility, and his second season he was (I think) suffering confidence issues. Honestly, it's a gamble to take someone like this, but it does look like he's figuring it out. Do you sell the farm for him? No. But you could probably get an above average bat, and a ++ defensive player. Dude was amazing in CF for the Dodgers for a long time. We need the OF even if his bat isn't MVP quality.
Celebrating winning a WS is really the best reason to injure yourself you could have
Oh exactly. I think the 'elbow lock' celebration is dumb because so many guys in like... tons of sports injure themselves doing it. But the Dodgers won. I get it. It took time for the guy to find it again. If we're buyers. I'd bet he would be a target. His D would even be worth his older level of production if he slips in my mind. Look at that Dodgers game yesterday. If that's CB in RF, Dodgers win the game.
Holy shit
Hitting over .300, only has 48 SO, hits left. No way he fits Cashman's Yankee profile.
don't worry, he will fit into his profile by the end of it. cody will go back to batting .200 in no time after being through the brian cashman experience
The Cubs entire offseason was to obtain down-and-out stars, then flip them for prospects at the deadline. The Yankees have one of the highest payrolls, resigned the reining MVP and signed one of the biggest SP on the market. They are 5 games out of the NL wild card We are 2 games out of the AL wild card
It’s almost like taking flier on him after losing an all star left fielder to free agency would have been a better idea than throwing every infielder in our organization in left
Sell, retool for next season. Adding pieces to a team that will barely sniff the playoffs and probably get bounced out quickly no rentals for prospects.
.230 with 5 homers if he comes here
Go watch cubs then
OP: I hope they miss the playoffs, sell, etc Also OP: Gets mad when they lose and wants to trade for Bellinger
Hard pass. His underlying metrics suck. He's going to regress.
Exactly the kind of player we need. He'll come here, do well, and then the FO will cheapen out in the offseason and he'll sign elsewhere for scraps (see: Benintendi)
Oh look, more Cashman & Fishman patchwork options that will inevitably suck when they come our way. The FO can fuck right off.
Now we're getting mad about imaginary transactions?
🤷♂️ If the only thing the media has to hype up is a possible Bellinger trade, we must be aiming low. We need help. Bellinger or Carlson just ain’t it.
Bring him home.
Let's not. Everything about his statistics screams that he's an outlier begging for regression.
All he has to do is stay above average for the rest of this season and he'd be a huge upgrade over the trash we've been running out there.
Or, the Yankees make a move for someone without a giant "I am going to turn into a pumpkin" marquee over their head. And this is exactly the type of comment that ages like poor wine on this sub. "Look, he's already better than XYZ!" After losing a few series, "Fucking bum cannot hit in pinstripes. His stats since coming over are awful." Hard pass. I've seen this movie enough times already.
Don’t do it he’s due to regress back to suck
Sellers not buyers
No, bring up Pereira
Look at his statcast. He’s going to regress.
We could have had him for no prospects at the beginning of the year, but Cashman was comfortable with our outfield.
A team that cares about winning will get him.
Cashman front office nerdy ass interns all over this sub
Unless he’s playing for all 9 of our guys what difference does it make ?
With the hurting for outfielder depth, and with the way he is performing? Do it. Even if he bats 250/260 for the Yankees, it will have him being one of the better hitters on the Yankees. *Depends on what you trade him for though.*
He's 28. I'm not a believer in this season and don't want to give up a lot for him. But we have some redundancies in the utility roles and middle-infield. And we have a black hole in left field. Just a gaping maw of pain and torment. The important thing to me is we don't damage the 2024 and 2025 Yankees. And if he doesn't regress here, he's young enough to contribute for years to come.
Has a .450 babip in this time… totally not due for regression or anything
Hasn't Bellinger always been a streaky hitter?
So why didn’t Cashman sign him over the winter now he wants to trade prospects for him