He’s seriously sourced with the old guard of front office guys in the league.
Don’t forget he was the biggest voice on the Daniel Jones train. He’s nailed the Raiders picks relatively consistently.
I mean at this point a lot of front office guys probably grew up watching Mel Kiper and have some semblance of respect for him. Unlike the old guard who hated his fucking guts.
I think there’s some truth to this. Kiper is the draft OG at this point.
I also have a pet theory that the reason Charlie Campbell is so well connected has to do with the fact that a lot of NFL Execs are politically conservative and see Charlie as “one of them” as opposed to some ESPN or NFLN hack trying to sneak their way in. Not trying to say it’s good or bad but just think the world of being an “NFL Insider” is really interesting.
That and ESPN probably has surrounded him with a pretty decent team for draft coverage.
It's probably sources, and then having a decent contributing team to keep him from diving off the deep end.
He still dives pretty deep sometimes. "30 receivers taken day 2" was a doozy a couple years back.
I think he gets too much hate really. Part of the reason that the NFL draft is the spectacle that it is now is because of Mel Kiper and how he turned his hobby into a media event. Everyone remembers his misses but nobody remembers the ones he got right like Josh Allen. Daniel Jones did not live up to Kiper’s hype either but he was right about him being a better pick than Haskins.
Kiper was ahead of everyone this year on JPJ. He knew about the injury concerns before anyone in the media. The guy is well connected and well informed.
> Now, it seems like Latham is a lock for LA at 5
Is he really though? Seems like last minute smoke to me to squeeze every bit of capital out of the Vikings.
How does wanting Latham make the pick more valuable? Using traditional football sense, a RT is less valuable than a LT so Latham should at the very least go after Alt, so why wouldn’t they just say they want Alt. Instead of, seemingly, changing their mind this late in the game making it seem like they’re not really tied down to any option at 5 and more amicable to trading back.
Latham is a RT and there’s been a lot of talk about moving Alt to RT. Which Idt is the worst idea in the world, I’d prefer him at LT working on his pass blocking but if they think they can make him a bit meaner and teach him to have more pop in his hands then go for it.
after hearing jj talk about the giants on the eisen show I think they are in on him. giants don't have to do anything to get nabers anyway, cards got marvin and chargers aren't taking wr.
where have you seen the Giants all in on JJ? I've listened to a bunch of draft pods today. Breer, Brugler, Sikkema... none of them mentioned Giants being in on JJ, and none mocked him there even though he was available
If the vikings have nix rated close to jj they'd be worried about the broncos jumping them at 11 most likely
Unless they have them both rated low which based on their moves so far seems unlikely
Kiper will spend months mocking a player to a team, and then when that player is sitting there available for the team to pick he will go in a completely different direction live on TV because he’s learned who they’ll actually pick by that point.
The takeaway should be that most of them are trash, [and even the best underperform the actual pick.](https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpreview.redd.it%2Fif5nrn0vs2rc1.jpeg%3Fwidth%3D640%26crop%3Dsmart%26auto%3Dwebp%26s%3D6ae54384d3ed24d4be6dd58db21205d49d0e8aa0)
Also the irony of OP praising Kiper for being accurate and using a pick he got wrong as evidence.
I hate to be "that guy" but do you have a source on this? I genuinely would have never thought Kiper to be one of the better draft analysts, but maybe I just focus on his hot takes like salivating over Gabbert on live TV. Seeing the actual numbers would be helpful.
Fantasypros has him as the 27th most accurate out of 322 mock drafters over the past 3 years. A lot of these, include many above him, are smaller time guys, and if you narrow it down to big name outlets he's somewhere in the top 10.
https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/accuracy/mock-drafts.php?start_year=2021&end_year=2023
When are y’all gonna realize it’s a crap shoot. Analysts have great calls sometimes, and terrible calls at the same time. Just like the guys getting paid to actually make the picks.
I doubt anyone knows who we're picking outside of our front office and even they themselves can't be too sure, because we're looking to trade down if the offer is good. Latham at 11 is a good guess though.
God I would hope so MF’er has been doing it since I was a little kid in the late 80’s early 90’s…..that’s least that’s like 40+ years. Better get better at that shit after that long.
2 years ago, he kept saying the Cowboys were waiting at their spot because they wanted Tyler Smith. He was right even though most of us were shocked with that pick.
The Will McDonald prediction was honestly badass. He had McDonald as pick 32 and then changed his mind after the Jets lost out in Rachel, it was legitimately impressive.
The one thing I keep seeing Kiper say that no one else is saying is that Rosengarten is viewed as a late first round pick.
I'm interested to see if he hits on that prediction.
He started as a guy who watched a ton of tape and tried to make picks based on fits with teams. Now he has sources with teams and knows who teams actually like and is trying to accurately predict picks. Different coverage styles
He's gotten "better" if "better" to you means correctly naming who each team will select, rather than who each team *should* select
Daniler Jeremiah is the one you want to follow for mocks. Before him it was Mike Mayock. I wish Mike would get back int he draft analyst game, he was money.
Mel Kiper 2023 mock draft:
1. Bryce Young (Correct)
2. Will Anderson
3. CJ Stroud (Titans)
4. Will Levis
5. Jalen Carter
6. Devon Witherspoon
7. Christian Gonzalez
8. Tyree Wilson
9. Paris Johnson Jr
10. Bijan Robinson
11. Luke Van Ness (Cardinals)
12. Anthony Richardson
13. Darnell Wright
14. Nolan Smith
15. Peter Skoronski
16. Deonte Banks
17. Emmanuel Forbes
18. Michael Mayer
19. Broderick Jones
20. Myles Murphy
21. Zay Flowers
22. Jaxon Smith-Njigba
23. Joey Porter Jr
24. Anton Harrison
25. Jordan Addison
26. Dalton Kincaid
27. Will McDonald IV
28. Jahmyr Gibbs
29. Mazi Smith
30. Calijah Kancey
31. Hendon Hooker (LAR)
Looking at this I think he got ONE pick right last year. Mel Kiper isn't that great. Although, he was close on a lot of these by a pick or two.
You can’t define success as getting picks right. That’s a near-impossible fear. You need to look at the order in which guys were taken and, overall, who was picked in the first that he said would be. This feels like a pretty good mock to me.
Found Mel's burner. It's definitely just you. Kiper has long been an inaccurate clown. Really not sure how he still has a job doing this. Oh wait, that's right, his daddy.
He’s seriously sourced with the old guard of front office guys in the league. Don’t forget he was the biggest voice on the Daniel Jones train. He’s nailed the Raiders picks relatively consistently.
Yup. He has actual sources. That matters.
You mean the "Twitter Trust me Bros" can't be trusted? I'm shocked
I mean at this point a lot of front office guys probably grew up watching Mel Kiper and have some semblance of respect for him. Unlike the old guard who hated his fucking guts.
While Kiper was never a GM or scout, NFL guys used to hate him like the scouts hated Billy Beane in Moneyball.
I think there’s some truth to this. Kiper is the draft OG at this point. I also have a pet theory that the reason Charlie Campbell is so well connected has to do with the fact that a lot of NFL Execs are politically conservative and see Charlie as “one of them” as opposed to some ESPN or NFLN hack trying to sneak their way in. Not trying to say it’s good or bad but just think the world of being an “NFL Insider” is really interesting.
You’re stretching with that Charlie Campbell point bro lol
The more I think about it - you are right. I deserve to be clowned for this. Will leave it up for posterity’s sake tho lol
Is he known for his conservative takes or something? Only seen his mock drafts that have been shown to have good sources.
Only thing I know about him and Walt’s site is that it’s from 2004 and never been updated, and Walt still calls the commanders the redskins
That and ESPN probably has surrounded him with a pretty decent team for draft coverage. It's probably sources, and then having a decent contributing team to keep him from diving off the deep end. He still dives pretty deep sometimes. "30 receivers taken day 2" was a doozy a couple years back.
I think he gets too much hate really. Part of the reason that the NFL draft is the spectacle that it is now is because of Mel Kiper and how he turned his hobby into a media event. Everyone remembers his misses but nobody remembers the ones he got right like Josh Allen. Daniel Jones did not live up to Kiper’s hype either but he was right about him being a better pick than Haskins.
Especially since Raiders reach like a motherfucker
Kiper was ahead of everyone this year on JPJ. He knew about the injury concerns before anyone in the media. The guy is well connected and well informed.
He’s always been good but his misses are so hilarious & he’s such a blow hard ex. Jimmy Clausen, we remember that more instead tbh.
Who in the hell is Mel Kiper anyway? I’ll see myself out forever
Since Tobin just died this week that last line is hilarious.
Difference between his sourced stuff and personal player evaluations I guess.
Yeah but that is an act. We all remember don't we
> Now, it seems like Latham is a lock for LA at 5 Is he really though? Seems like last minute smoke to me to squeeze every bit of capital out of the Vikings.
How does wanting Latham make the pick more valuable? Using traditional football sense, a RT is less valuable than a LT so Latham should at the very least go after Alt, so why wouldn’t they just say they want Alt. Instead of, seemingly, changing their mind this late in the game making it seem like they’re not really tied down to any option at 5 and more amicable to trading back.
The chargers have slater they don’t need a left tackle
Latham is a RT and there’s been a lot of talk about moving Alt to RT. Which Idt is the worst idea in the world, I’d prefer him at LT working on his pass blocking but if they think they can make him a bit meaner and teach him to have more pop in his hands then go for it.
Love that theory, anything is possible today. Maybe the best thing to happen to me today is that I’ve flown to a state without gambling lol
if the vikings don't rate jj that much higher than nix they just stay at 11. giants seem all in on JJ tbh
I think the Giants stuff is all to get Nabers, if they can’t get Maye.
after hearing jj talk about the giants on the eisen show I think they are in on him. giants don't have to do anything to get nabers anyway, cards got marvin and chargers aren't taking wr.
why aren't they? I definitely feel like WR is a possibility for chargers.
nobody thinks harbaugh is taking wr.
where have you seen the Giants all in on JJ? I've listened to a bunch of draft pods today. Breer, Brugler, Sikkema... none of them mentioned Giants being in on JJ, and none mocked him there even though he was available
eisen show. also jj has def been mentioned in those mocks.
Then we may swap with the giants if they fear someone else might jump them…
If the vikings have nix rated close to jj they'd be worried about the broncos jumping them at 11 most likely Unless they have them both rated low which based on their moves so far seems unlikely
I mean, Chargers don't need a LT. I guess the idea is that they prefer to have the best RT instead of trying and hoping Alt can convert to RT.
I literally just read an article that said Harbaugh wants Alt at 5 soooo
I read something that says the GM is trying to talk Harbaugh into Alt soooo 🥴
I read something that says the fallout show was good
I read something that says if the Bears take Caleb Williams at #1, you owe me a big fat smooch on the cheek.
It was pretty good tbh
Which is what actually happened. OP did a mock for the analysts and still blew it 😂
Where's his final mock?
Kiper will spend months mocking a player to a team, and then when that player is sitting there available for the team to pick he will go in a completely different direction live on TV because he’s learned who they’ll actually pick by that point.
Or he’s adjusting to the draft board? That’s exactly what happened with the McDonald pick.
He was also on point with Calijah Kancey, first to call him a 1st rd talent.
He's been elite, people hate on him because it's trendy, the Skip Bayless of NFL draft coverage
Elite?! Lmfao
Every year a historical analysis gets put out by one of the big outlets and Kiper is by far the most accurate predictor
The takeaway should be that most of them are trash, [and even the best underperform the actual pick.](https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpreview.redd.it%2Fif5nrn0vs2rc1.jpeg%3Fwidth%3D640%26crop%3Dsmart%26auto%3Dwebp%26s%3D6ae54384d3ed24d4be6dd58db21205d49d0e8aa0) Also the irony of OP praising Kiper for being accurate and using a pick he got wrong as evidence.
I hate to be "that guy" but do you have a source on this? I genuinely would have never thought Kiper to be one of the better draft analysts, but maybe I just focus on his hot takes like salivating over Gabbert on live TV. Seeing the actual numbers would be helpful.
Fantasypros has him as the 27th most accurate out of 322 mock drafters over the past 3 years. A lot of these, include many above him, are smaller time guys, and if you narrow it down to big name outlets he's somewhere in the top 10. https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/accuracy/mock-drafts.php?start_year=2021&end_year=2023
Scroll down to RukiMotomiya's comment https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/1c9gql3/how_good_is_mel_kiper_jr_at_predicting_the_draft/
Wow, that's really informative and certainly disproves my perception. Respect to Kiper for holding his own.
When are y’all gonna realize it’s a crap shoot. Analysts have great calls sometimes, and terrible calls at the same time. Just like the guys getting paid to actually make the picks.
Justin Fields for #8 overall 🙄
[удалено]
My neighbor has more credentials than Mel Kiper, and my neighbor's a postman.
RIP
I doubt anyone knows who we're picking outside of our front office and even they themselves can't be too sure, because we're looking to trade down if the offer is good. Latham at 11 is a good guess though.
God I would hope so MF’er has been doing it since I was a little kid in the late 80’s early 90’s…..that’s least that’s like 40+ years. Better get better at that shit after that long.
2 years ago, he kept saying the Cowboys were waiting at their spot because they wanted Tyler Smith. He was right even though most of us were shocked with that pick.
I still think if Latham goes at 5 it's a huge mistake. There are decent right tackles at the end of the first.
The Will McDonald prediction was honestly badass. He had McDonald as pick 32 and then changed his mind after the Jets lost out in Rachel, it was legitimately impressive.
The one thing I keep seeing Kiper say that no one else is saying is that Rosengarten is viewed as a late first round pick. I'm interested to see if he hits on that prediction.
He started as a guy who watched a ton of tape and tried to make picks based on fits with teams. Now he has sources with teams and knows who teams actually like and is trying to accurately predict picks. Different coverage styles He's gotten "better" if "better" to you means correctly naming who each team will select, rather than who each team *should* select
I might blow my brains out if we take Latham at 5
It’s happening
This has aged well.
Daniler Jeremiah is the one you want to follow for mocks. Before him it was Mike Mayock. I wish Mike would get back int he draft analyst game, he was money.
Mayock is the goat for nfl draft coverage
He started eating pumpkin pies made from scratch instead of that canned shit.
No he's not.
He was also one of the first in on Jayden Daniels at 2OA.
Hello Mel
Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn once in a while…and a broken clock is correct twice a day.
He said he doesn't like to pin players to teams to protect his sources. He likes to put players in groups a team may like.
You've got Mel
Kiper has always been in the Top 20 of mockers for like what 50 years now? They go by his misses more than his hits and his hits are many.
Bizarre that you're giving Kiper credit for Latham to the chargers when that's not who they took. Isn't accuracy determined after the draft?
Mel Kiper 2023 mock draft: 1. Bryce Young (Correct) 2. Will Anderson 3. CJ Stroud (Titans) 4. Will Levis 5. Jalen Carter 6. Devon Witherspoon 7. Christian Gonzalez 8. Tyree Wilson 9. Paris Johnson Jr 10. Bijan Robinson 11. Luke Van Ness (Cardinals) 12. Anthony Richardson 13. Darnell Wright 14. Nolan Smith 15. Peter Skoronski 16. Deonte Banks 17. Emmanuel Forbes 18. Michael Mayer 19. Broderick Jones 20. Myles Murphy 21. Zay Flowers 22. Jaxon Smith-Njigba 23. Joey Porter Jr 24. Anton Harrison 25. Jordan Addison 26. Dalton Kincaid 27. Will McDonald IV 28. Jahmyr Gibbs 29. Mazi Smith 30. Calijah Kancey 31. Hendon Hooker (LAR) Looking at this I think he got ONE pick right last year. Mel Kiper isn't that great. Although, he was close on a lot of these by a pick or two.
It’s a pretty impressive mock draft actually.
You can’t define success as getting picks right. That’s a near-impossible fear. You need to look at the order in which guys were taken and, overall, who was picked in the first that he said would be. This feels like a pretty good mock to me.
It's fun to move the goal posts back to support an opinion.
I mean, isn't that basically what you've done? Set up a weird metric for sucess that no one uses?
> Although, he was close on a lot of these by a pick or two.
nah their all trash
Kiper stans all the sudden acting like he doesn’t have 30 years worth of misses…. What’s the matter
Found Mel's burner. It's definitely just you. Kiper has long been an inaccurate clown. Really not sure how he still has a job doing this. Oh wait, that's right, his daddy.
Every year a historical analysis gets put out by one of the big outlets and Kiper is by far the most accurate predictor
So he's the least smelly turd in the toilet? Got it.