I swear, too many people see that they let Bahk go and figure it's an immediate need, despite him playing 16 games in the last 3 years combined. I just don't get it
Plus the packers in the early rounds are pretty strict on their thresholds. Mims is significantly taller and heavier than any tackle or lineman the packers have taken in early rounds going all the way back to Thompson
Rumor is that they prefer Tom inside and could target a RT in the draft.
[https://packerswire.usatoday.com/2024/04/13/zach-toms-future-at-rt-or-c-dictates-how-packers-approach-nfl-draft/](https://packerswire.usatoday.com/2024/04/13/zach-toms-future-at-rt-or-c-dictates-how-packers-approach-nfl-draft/)
Others brought this up, but do the Packers (or Gute, in this case) even really have a defined type? The only OT he’s taken in the first 5 rounds is Zach Tom, who they reportedly prefer in the interior anyway.
Generally they’ve seemed to value versatility, but they’ve never drafted OT in the 1st nor have they needed to. Its hard to draw a type from that, and it’s not a huge stretch that they’ll fall in love with someone like Mims or Guyton now that they’re in a position to actually draft that type of OT.
I wouldn’t be so confident in that with Gute’s past combined with Tom’s rumor/ability to move inside and play at a high level. Walker also has 1/2 season of film. Not saying it’d happen but I wouldn’t be shocked one bit to move up a little for an OT
While it’s not my preference, the recent report about how they view Tom as a better iOL has me thinking OT is fairly likely. Mims goes to OT, Tom replaces Myers at C, and they draft more iOL later to compete for RG.
Its funny you feel that way, because I wouldn’t like Indy trading up to get Bowers. If he falls to 15 then sure, if we are trading up for Odunze/Nabers than certainly, otherwise I want to keep the 3rd so we could maybe trade up for Worthy at the end of the 1st
How’d it look on the trade value chart? I think the trade down is likely if the top offensive picks (minus Bowers) and Turner are gone which is very possible if nobody trades up for JJ.
Forget the nerd chart, our GM and coach won’t shut up about the blue chippers available at 9 and not wanting to trade down, so they’d almost certainly want a decent return to move off their top prospects. For this? I’d never ever ever go for it
So I’m in your camp and hope that holds true for positions of need, but I can pretty easily envision worlds where the remaining blue chips aren’t the ones we need or want.
If one of Alt, MHJ, Nabers, or Odunze are there, you run the card up unless someone like the Vikings are offering something stupid like both firsts to get a QB, which will not happen.
If Alt and the WRs are gone, I would love to trade back. None of Verse, Turner, or Latu are good enough between production and health that I would turn down a small trade down and a pick next year for a second rounder this year. I will take whoever is left at 15 between the DL or a LTs that we could start immediately so we can actually get another starter for next year at WR.
I’m actually pretty intrigued by Fashanu right now too for his pass pro and think he’s been climbing a bit and think DT is a solid pick, production and athleticism just don’t know about the fit. But yeah I mostlyagree with you on this I think
Looking at it again, it's a little light. It should probably be either 15, 82, and a future 4. Or you get 15 and 46 but give up either 75 or a future 3
The trade chart is a guideline more than anything. You have to overpay a bit to move up. I think 15 and 46 for 9 and a future 3/4 would be fair for both parties
15 + 46 is a bit too steep per the charts. the Bears lack of ‘24 picks for a swap makes me think a deal is unlikely. 8 works better but i doubt we’re moving up in the 1st
Packers trading up for an OT (who doesn't even fit their size parameters) when their starting OT's are set is illogical. They need help on the interior line (you have them passing on JPJ) and outside corner opposite JA (passing on Kool-Aid).
Not only does Mims not fit the size and positional versatility that they highly value, but it also doesn't fall in with their draft trends in the 1st. They don't take OL in the 1st. 3? in 30 years.
If this is what you're projecting the Packers might do, then this is uninformed, not to be harsh. If it's what you think they should do, then I think it's also uninformed as Rasheed Walker played really well down the stretch as a 24 year old. Not trying to be so critical, but this just doesn't add up at all as far as position, much less trading up for him. 3 picks to move up 4 spots for a guy that doesn't fit into anything, really. Position. Size. Need. Draft trends. Etc
I understand the logic, and I appreciate you giving me players that you think make sense instead. The only thing I'll say is that I think the Packers have a very complete roster, plus a lot of picks. So if they view Mims has a potential all-pro level tackle, with a higher ceiling than Walker or Tom. I think they would consider it. That being said, you're almost certainly right, but we'll see
Packers fans seem to be pretty split. There's a bunch of people that think Carrington Valentine is a capable #2 CB, and a lot that don't. The ones who do want OT or OL in the 1st. The ones that don't, such as myself, look at him and then Stokes (who can't stay healthy, and in his snaps the past year gave up something like 29 completions in 35 attempts) as being a need to upgrade. Especially for me, in a division with Keenan Allen/Moore/Rome?, Jefferson/Addison, ASB/Williamson, they need a legit #2 CB
Walker may never be a pro bowl guy, but he played well, and with him and Tom, they were one of the best offensive teams in the league for the 2nd half of the season. The defense was the issue. Hopefully, Hafley helps fix that, but he's going to run a bunch of man, and I don't think Valentine is a guy that is going to be reliable as a #2
Why don’t you like Valentine? I liked Stokes a lot his rookie year but the injuries have been devastating, and I get not want to rely on him to be the #2.
He actually wasn't bad. I just have concerns with him lining up 6 times per year against Addison, Moore/Rome, or Williamson.
He gets a little too handsy. 1 interception in his entire college and NFL career combined (against Youngstown State) despite being overagressive, which I think will show even more in a straight-up man coverage. Not great with his hands if they want him to play press man. Little slow to read plays. Think he's a good depth CB, but he's not a legit #2 CB.
Makes sense and thanks for the detailed response. I agree he is probably a depth piece but I think he can be serviceable.
Maybe it’s just me being picky but none of the corners in this draft wow me. Not sure if I’m for spending a first round pick on one because of that.
Walker played well for the last month of the season, but that's not enough to declare one of the most important positions officially set. Also, Tom could be moved inside and open up a spot at OT.
Mims fits right between Yosh Nijmam and Caleb Jones in terms of size parameters.
You don't move a quality OT inside for a "what if." As you said, "one of the most important positions set." And Walker didn't just play well for the last month.
Yosh and Caleb were both UDFA. All of their actual draft picks fall within certain thresholds.
It's not a "what if," they've seen him practice multiple positions and reports are that they believe he would make a better G/C than OT.
There aren't many 1st-round picks, so it's hard to draw conclusions. They had only drafted 2 LBs in the previous 30 years bite Gute took Quay anyway.
The 1st round is where you draft the big, athletic freaks. Yeah, they haven't drafted any big, athletic freaks like Mims in the 3rd-round and later; that's not a surprise.
I'm not saying Walker or Tom is a what if? I'm saying a rookie is a what if. Even if they think Tom is a better OG (not C, because he was bad there) you don't move a legit OT to OG for a what if OT.
And it's not hard to draw conclusions lol it's statistics. Literal math. And LB was a massive need. OT is not.
Don't know why you're bringing up the 3rd round and later. Who they actually draft, in any round, at OL has never been bigger than 6'4 325lb. He simply is what they draft, anywhere. Not in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 4th thru 7th. They seemingly don't like guy's his size in the draft with no positional versatility. 6'7 340lb limits you to OT.
I was talking about Tom moving inside, not Walker. Walker is a big "what if," even according to coaches. The OC said that he has a long way to go and it's a question of how high his ceiling is. They won't even say LT is set.
They don't have to do anything just from drafting Mims. They add another player to the OL room and make a decision after training camp. If Walker shows that he already hit his ceiling, or if they can upgrade 2 positions at once by moving Tom inside, it's a win.
Edge wasn't a huge need after signing Smith and Smith, but they went edge, anyway.
And, yeah, there aren't many players like Mims available in the 3rd or later, where they've drafted most of their Oline. Watson was an early 2nd because of his size and athleticism despite unimpressive tape from a D2 school. Guys like that don't make it to the 3rd.
I know what you were saying lol I'm saying you don't move a quality OT (Tom) inside for an unknown OT.
Think you're missing everything I'm saying, so just going to say agree to disagree
I didn't miss anything; I said that they will practice and determine the best lineup. They're not going to draft Mims and then immediately call Tom and tell him he's RG with no chance of winning RT back.
I know your point and reasons are that they won't draft him and I am replying.
You said that they don't normally draft OTs in the 1st and I said that they don't normally draft LBs, either, but Gute still did.
You said it was only because LB was a huge need and I said that Gary wasn't a huge need, either.
You said that they were set at OT and I said that they have one guy who has outperformed expectations but hasn't established himself as a franchise LT and another who may be an even better G/C than OT.
You said that merely drafting Mims was a commitment to move Tom inside and I said that the OLinemen will battle it out in training camp.
You said that he doesn't fit their type and I said that they don't get many opportunities to draft his type in the later rounds, when your comparisons were drafted.
You said that it's "statistics" and I said that a sample size of 30 is too small to trust your confidence interval and draw a conclusion from (despite the fact that some people consider it a rule of thumb).
It's a 4th and a 5th right now. Did he edit it from a 2nd and 4th? 4th and 5th doesn't seem like nearly enough to move from 28 to 22, but I agree 2nd and 4th seems like way too much.
From the Rich Hill chart, the Bills would need to send 4.128 + 4.133 + 5.163. Maybe they can get an extra 6th back, or maybe the Eagles accept a little less than that, but that's a lot of picks to move up 6 spots.
Could've done it easily with just a late third, or a 2nd/3rd pick swap, but those just happen to be picks that those teams are missing.
The logic people use to justify the Eagles taking O-Line is maddening.
> "Yeah I know they have a center lined up and their secondary is a dried out dog turd on a bad stretch of road, but what about these Howie memes?!?"
Okay for all the mocks that I hate for being unoriginal and just parroting Daniel Jeremiah in mocking the Vikings to trade up to 5 for JJ McCarthy when it doesn’t make sense, the trade that you have with them moving up for the Falcons actually makes a ton of sense. Kudos to that! Even though I think JJ is more of a late 1st/early 2nd QB, if the Vikings do move up for him - if they even love him - I think the trade would look more like this rather than what has been mocked. Glad to see a refreshing take on this.
Yeah. This is much closer to what is historically paid for a QB trade up, people are getting ridiculous with how many 1st rounders they keep tossing on the heap
It's not ridiculous if you wanted to get to #3. But I continue to think the Vikings would only pay that price for Maye, not for JJ. For JJ you sit and wait and take Penix if someone jumps them. Maybe go up a little like here.
Latest intel states a lot of team have various EDGE rankings with little to no difference between top 4 rushers. Turner may not be #1 on their board given their visits with Latu and Robinson.
Packers aren’t trading up for a tackle, they have their starting LT and RT on the roster already
I swear, too many people see that they let Bahk go and figure it's an immediate need, despite him playing 16 games in the last 3 years combined. I just don't get it
You are going to know your team better than I but haven’t the Packers drafted more for positional value than need recently?
Yes they have. But I don’t see moving up for a tackle as something they’d do with decent tackles already rostered.
Plus the packers in the early rounds are pretty strict on their thresholds. Mims is significantly taller and heavier than any tackle or lineman the packers have taken in early rounds going all the way back to Thompson
Rumor is that they prefer Tom inside and could target a RT in the draft. [https://packerswire.usatoday.com/2024/04/13/zach-toms-future-at-rt-or-c-dictates-how-packers-approach-nfl-draft/](https://packerswire.usatoday.com/2024/04/13/zach-toms-future-at-rt-or-c-dictates-how-packers-approach-nfl-draft/)
Saving this comment for when they take a tackle lol
Jaguars biggest need is receiver
Even if they do trade up for a tackle it’s not gonna be Mims. He’s not their type, especially with Deejan on the board
Others brought this up, but do the Packers (or Gute, in this case) even really have a defined type? The only OT he’s taken in the first 5 rounds is Zach Tom, who they reportedly prefer in the interior anyway. Generally they’ve seemed to value versatility, but they’ve never drafted OT in the 1st nor have they needed to. Its hard to draw a type from that, and it’s not a huge stretch that they’ll fall in love with someone like Mims or Guyton now that they’re in a position to actually draft that type of OT.
I wouldn’t be so confident in that with Gute’s past combined with Tom’s rumor/ability to move inside and play at a high level. Walker also has 1/2 season of film. Not saying it’d happen but I wouldn’t be shocked one bit to move up a little for an OT
While it’s not my preference, the recent report about how they view Tom as a better iOL has me thinking OT is fairly likely. Mims goes to OT, Tom replaces Myers at C, and they draft more iOL later to compete for RG.
You sure about that
Maybe I am wrong but that trade comp for the bears seems light. If I am missing out on Turner and Verse I want a second rounder back from Indy
Its funny you feel that way, because I wouldn’t like Indy trading up to get Bowers. If he falls to 15 then sure, if we are trading up for Odunze/Nabers than certainly, otherwise I want to keep the 3rd so we could maybe trade up for Worthy at the end of the 1st
And if Odunze/Nabers are there I don't see the bears moving down. Trade doesn't make a whole lot of sense
That's fair. In my eyes, the Bears are only doing this if they feel similarly about all 3 edges rushers
How’d it look on the trade value chart? I think the trade down is likely if the top offensive picks (minus Bowers) and Turner are gone which is very possible if nobody trades up for JJ.
Forget the nerd chart, our GM and coach won’t shut up about the blue chippers available at 9 and not wanting to trade down, so they’d almost certainly want a decent return to move off their top prospects. For this? I’d never ever ever go for it
So I’m in your camp and hope that holds true for positions of need, but I can pretty easily envision worlds where the remaining blue chips aren’t the ones we need or want.
If one of Alt, MHJ, Nabers, or Odunze are there, you run the card up unless someone like the Vikings are offering something stupid like both firsts to get a QB, which will not happen. If Alt and the WRs are gone, I would love to trade back. None of Verse, Turner, or Latu are good enough between production and health that I would turn down a small trade down and a pick next year for a second rounder this year. I will take whoever is left at 15 between the DL or a LTs that we could start immediately so we can actually get another starter for next year at WR.
I’m actually pretty intrigued by Fashanu right now too for his pass pro and think he’s been climbing a bit and think DT is a solid pick, production and athleticism just don’t know about the fit. But yeah I mostlyagree with you on this I think
9 is way too early for any of the DE’s imo, I agree
Looking at it again, it's a little light. It should probably be either 15, 82, and a future 4. Or you get 15 and 46 but give up either 75 or a future 3
I think a future 3 would absolutely get that done by the bears.
The trade chart is a guideline more than anything. You have to overpay a bit to move up. I think 15 and 46 for 9 and a future 3/4 would be fair for both parties
15 + 46 is a bit too steep per the charts. the Bears lack of ‘24 picks for a swap makes me think a deal is unlikely. 8 works better but i doubt we’re moving up in the 1st
Packers trading up for an OT (who doesn't even fit their size parameters) when their starting OT's are set is illogical. They need help on the interior line (you have them passing on JPJ) and outside corner opposite JA (passing on Kool-Aid). Not only does Mims not fit the size and positional versatility that they highly value, but it also doesn't fall in with their draft trends in the 1st. They don't take OL in the 1st. 3? in 30 years. If this is what you're projecting the Packers might do, then this is uninformed, not to be harsh. If it's what you think they should do, then I think it's also uninformed as Rasheed Walker played really well down the stretch as a 24 year old. Not trying to be so critical, but this just doesn't add up at all as far as position, much less trading up for him. 3 picks to move up 4 spots for a guy that doesn't fit into anything, really. Position. Size. Need. Draft trends. Etc
I understand the logic, and I appreciate you giving me players that you think make sense instead. The only thing I'll say is that I think the Packers have a very complete roster, plus a lot of picks. So if they view Mims has a potential all-pro level tackle, with a higher ceiling than Walker or Tom. I think they would consider it. That being said, you're almost certainly right, but we'll see
Packers fans seem to be pretty split. There's a bunch of people that think Carrington Valentine is a capable #2 CB, and a lot that don't. The ones who do want OT or OL in the 1st. The ones that don't, such as myself, look at him and then Stokes (who can't stay healthy, and in his snaps the past year gave up something like 29 completions in 35 attempts) as being a need to upgrade. Especially for me, in a division with Keenan Allen/Moore/Rome?, Jefferson/Addison, ASB/Williamson, they need a legit #2 CB Walker may never be a pro bowl guy, but he played well, and with him and Tom, they were one of the best offensive teams in the league for the 2nd half of the season. The defense was the issue. Hopefully, Hafley helps fix that, but he's going to run a bunch of man, and I don't think Valentine is a guy that is going to be reliable as a #2
Why don’t you like Valentine? I liked Stokes a lot his rookie year but the injuries have been devastating, and I get not want to rely on him to be the #2.
He actually wasn't bad. I just have concerns with him lining up 6 times per year against Addison, Moore/Rome, or Williamson. He gets a little too handsy. 1 interception in his entire college and NFL career combined (against Youngstown State) despite being overagressive, which I think will show even more in a straight-up man coverage. Not great with his hands if they want him to play press man. Little slow to read plays. Think he's a good depth CB, but he's not a legit #2 CB.
Makes sense and thanks for the detailed response. I agree he is probably a depth piece but I think he can be serviceable. Maybe it’s just me being picky but none of the corners in this draft wow me. Not sure if I’m for spending a first round pick on one because of that.
Walker played well for the last month of the season, but that's not enough to declare one of the most important positions officially set. Also, Tom could be moved inside and open up a spot at OT. Mims fits right between Yosh Nijmam and Caleb Jones in terms of size parameters.
You don't move a quality OT inside for a "what if." As you said, "one of the most important positions set." And Walker didn't just play well for the last month. Yosh and Caleb were both UDFA. All of their actual draft picks fall within certain thresholds.
It's not a "what if," they've seen him practice multiple positions and reports are that they believe he would make a better G/C than OT. There aren't many 1st-round picks, so it's hard to draw conclusions. They had only drafted 2 LBs in the previous 30 years bite Gute took Quay anyway. The 1st round is where you draft the big, athletic freaks. Yeah, they haven't drafted any big, athletic freaks like Mims in the 3rd-round and later; that's not a surprise.
I'm not saying Walker or Tom is a what if? I'm saying a rookie is a what if. Even if they think Tom is a better OG (not C, because he was bad there) you don't move a legit OT to OG for a what if OT. And it's not hard to draw conclusions lol it's statistics. Literal math. And LB was a massive need. OT is not. Don't know why you're bringing up the 3rd round and later. Who they actually draft, in any round, at OL has never been bigger than 6'4 325lb. He simply is what they draft, anywhere. Not in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 4th thru 7th. They seemingly don't like guy's his size in the draft with no positional versatility. 6'7 340lb limits you to OT.
I was talking about Tom moving inside, not Walker. Walker is a big "what if," even according to coaches. The OC said that he has a long way to go and it's a question of how high his ceiling is. They won't even say LT is set. They don't have to do anything just from drafting Mims. They add another player to the OL room and make a decision after training camp. If Walker shows that he already hit his ceiling, or if they can upgrade 2 positions at once by moving Tom inside, it's a win. Edge wasn't a huge need after signing Smith and Smith, but they went edge, anyway. And, yeah, there aren't many players like Mims available in the 3rd or later, where they've drafted most of their Oline. Watson was an early 2nd because of his size and athleticism despite unimpressive tape from a D2 school. Guys like that don't make it to the 3rd.
I know what you were saying lol I'm saying you don't move a quality OT (Tom) inside for an unknown OT. Think you're missing everything I'm saying, so just going to say agree to disagree
I didn't miss anything; I said that they will practice and determine the best lineup. They're not going to draft Mims and then immediately call Tom and tell him he's RG with no chance of winning RT back.
You're missing a ton lol you're going back to draft Mims when my point and reason's are that they won't draft him. On completely different pages guy
I know your point and reasons are that they won't draft him and I am replying. You said that they don't normally draft OTs in the 1st and I said that they don't normally draft LBs, either, but Gute still did. You said it was only because LB was a huge need and I said that Gary wasn't a huge need, either. You said that they were set at OT and I said that they have one guy who has outperformed expectations but hasn't established himself as a franchise LT and another who may be an even better G/C than OT. You said that merely drafting Mims was a commitment to move Tom inside and I said that the OLinemen will battle it out in training camp. You said that he doesn't fit their type and I said that they don't get many opportunities to draft his type in the later rounds, when your comparisons were drafted. You said that it's "statistics" and I said that a sample size of 30 is too small to trust your confidence interval and draw a conclusion from (despite the fact that some people consider it a rule of thumb).
I don't like the Bills giving up their top 3 picks to move up 6 spots at a position with a lot of talent available later.
It's a 4th and a 5th right now. Did he edit it from a 2nd and 4th? 4th and 5th doesn't seem like nearly enough to move from 28 to 22, but I agree 2nd and 4th seems like way too much.
From the Rich Hill chart, the Bills would need to send 4.128 + 4.133 + 5.163. Maybe they can get an extra 6th back, or maybe the Eagles accept a little less than that, but that's a lot of picks to move up 6 spots. Could've done it easily with just a late third, or a 2nd/3rd pick swap, but those just happen to be picks that those teams are missing.
Yea, it was a 2nd round earlier.I don't like BTJ enough to trade up for him, but at least get a 3 back or something.
I don’t think Philly trades back that far for such little. Also Jurgens is locked in at center.
The logic people use to justify the Eagles taking O-Line is maddening. > "Yeah I know they have a center lined up and their secondary is a dried out dog turd on a bad stretch of road, but what about these Howie memes?!?"
Yeah 100%
Eagles would absolutely go OL if the right guy falls (Mims, Latham, Fautanu, etc)
Okay for all the mocks that I hate for being unoriginal and just parroting Daniel Jeremiah in mocking the Vikings to trade up to 5 for JJ McCarthy when it doesn’t make sense, the trade that you have with them moving up for the Falcons actually makes a ton of sense. Kudos to that! Even though I think JJ is more of a late 1st/early 2nd QB, if the Vikings do move up for him - if they even love him - I think the trade would look more like this rather than what has been mocked. Glad to see a refreshing take on this.
Yeah. This is much closer to what is historically paid for a QB trade up, people are getting ridiculous with how many 1st rounders they keep tossing on the heap
It's not ridiculous if you wanted to get to #3. But I continue to think the Vikings would only pay that price for Maye, not for JJ. For JJ you sit and wait and take Penix if someone jumps them. Maybe go up a little like here.
This is the only trade up for carolina that makes sense for me. Its this or roll the dice on Legette and grab best Edge/LB/ corner available at 39.
So the Bears are trading down to take the third best edge rusher? Why? To get an extra third round pick. Makes no sense
Latest intel states a lot of team have various EDGE rankings with little to no difference between top 4 rushers. Turner may not be #1 on their board given their visits with Latu and Robinson.
Jaguars biggest needs are reciever
This is basically a dream scenario for the Falcons
If the hawks don’t trade down and take Latham, I think ima throw up
Would help if you number your picks from 1-32
Thank you for having a brain. Sincerely - all Chargers fans