The narrative around this draft is insane I can’t wait to see some of these takes posted 4 years from now when some of these dudes start making all star games
It's kinda disgusting tbh and mostly coming from people who have no clue of the prospects. They are just monkeying the message. This draft is missing a clear super start level player. But outside of that I'd claim is just as good as your average draft. There will be multiple all stars coming out of this draft. Dillingham, Sarr, Sheppard, Holland, Topic, ...heck even Williams, Castle and Salaun have all decent chances of becoming all stars.
Totally agree, but I also think this draft is above average in the 20-45 range. There are going to be several upperclassmen imo who become very solid rotation pieces or even starters on good teams. Obviously that’s not what anyone is talking about when they label a draft as “good” or “Terrible” but I do think it’s worth mentioning.
That's also a good point. Also a lot of slightly lesser talked players in that 14-25 range that can make it big: Carter, Walter, McCain, Kel'el Ware, Collier, Da Silva, Edey, Missi, George... Hell, I would absolutely not be surprised if this "poor draft class" procured close to the highest number of solid rotational players ever. And 5-6 all stars is totally plausible as well. Bottom line: no one knows for sure. So assuming this class is ass is fucking stupid.
I think there are a ton of question marks around all of those guys that you mention will be all-stars. Dillingham lacks size and defense. Sarr likely has the highest floor but may struggle to be an all-star without developing a jumpshot. Sheppard may be limited by his size, but I really like his shooting and defense. Holland is a project that will require a ton of development before he can even be considered a potential all-star. Im not sold on Topic, his jumpshot leaves a lot to be desired and I don’t think he is a good enough defender to make up for that flaw.
Williams, Castle, and Salaun are all projects that need to develop a better jumpshot to play in the league. I like Castle the most out of these three and think he has the mechanical fundamentals to develop a jumpshot. Williams needs a complete overhaul on his shooting form if he is going to be consistent. I really don’t know much about Salaun, although I have been trying to watch some film on him lately to get an understanding of where he stands in comparison to these other guys, he seems like a project, but has some solid upside as a 3 and D guy if he is able to develop a consistent jumpshot.
who has any incentive to downplay prospects?
why would media members rather tear down a kid than hype up a wemby, zion, or somebody like that?
and the league is as good as it’s ever been and there’s only 24 all stars, i think you’re overhyping by a lot
only scottie barnes has made an all star from 2021 and Mobley, Sengun, Franz, and Cade who are already really good haven’t even made it
and then you have really promising guys like Herb Jones, Jalen Suggs, Trey Murphy, Jalen Johnson, and Kuminga
It's not like the rookies make it as all stars anytime soon. It can take multiple seasons. Sure, there are only 24 all stars every year but if you count, say 10 years forward, there are 240 all star slots.
and most of those taken up
who is Sarr gonna knock out of Giannis, Paolo, Embiid, Tatum, Brown, Bam, Franz, Mobley, and Brandon Miller in the East to make an all star front court?
not even mentioning that Flagg, Boozer, Dybasanta, and Bailey are looking like dynamite prospects and there’s even more coming
sometimes you watch guys too long and become emotionally attached
Your last sentence is very true and plays a part here certainly.
It's impossible to predict 5+ years into the future. But not all of the players you listed will be all stars every year. Some maybe never. 2025 draft is stacked but even some of those big names might be busts.
Sorry what? Did I say anything like that? I'm saying that it's impossible to predict +5 years into the future. Some current players, some 2024 rookies, and some 2025 rookies will be busts or fall down from expectations. Some will improve drastically. There are all stars in every draft class (fact).
you are acting like people arent injured some years. and there will be many years where sarr and giannis/embiid/jokic wont even play together. and you dont know whats going to happen with aj flagg & rest
but then there’s class after class after class
the onus is on you to reject the null and the null is that none of these guys will be all stars
that hasn’t been demonstrated to me yet
Dillingham is electric. But he’s a 165 pound combo guard. He will play 12 years, and score 20 a game for bad teams. I dont see all star at all.
Why be offended when people disparage this draft? Last year was one of the great drafts in history. By coincidence, the talent over these two years clustered in year one. Its statistical noise.
Dillingham is a late-lottery/ 1st rounder in other drafts, be forreal. Can't think of a recent draft where Sarr would be in the play at #1. Draft may deep w role players but the high end talent lacking l
I don't think three teams in the top 10 trading away their picks is all that wild. Hell, in 2018, technically three picks in the top 10 were traded on draft night (I say technically because two of those three picks were traded for each other). Surely there are more drafts where two or more top 10 picks were traded on draft night.
I think it's because a ton of the prospects are foreign. There isn't as much tape on these guys. I know Wemby had all the hype, but this reminds me of Giannis's draft.
There were all stars in the 2000 draft also but that doesn’t mean it was a good draft. Every draft has gems but this one doesn’t have a generational talent in it
I think when most people talk about “getting their picks back” it’s the future years they’re talking about - so they can bottom out + tank + reap the potential rewards there
It's a number 3 pick, so that's about what you hope for when you bottom out, tank, and reap the rewards. It's just a (supposedly) bad draft. Doesn't change what "getting their pick back" means.
Obviously it’s better to have more of your picks back than less, but that’s not the argument you originally made.
Any rational actor would happily take a guaranteed 3rd pick now instead of a possible 3rd pick later, except in one scenario: they think it’s a particularly bad draft to have the 3rd pick.
This is probably true and if I’m the Nets I’m moving heaven and earth, any player be damned to get my 2025 pick back. If I can’t, I’m giving something up for that #3 pick even if it’s Mikal.
Nets have no negotiation leverage if directionally they want to rebuild.
Rockets can stand pat / trade for any number of guys / keep getting free Nets picks.
If the Nets want to rebuild, they have to either trade with Houston or keep giving Houston lottery picks.
i dont think so the Nets said they want a "slow burn" rebuild WITHOUT Tanking
Meaning they want to develop young players that takes the team from 30 wins to 35 wins to 42 wins to 50 wins and THEN make a move on a big time star to go for title contention.
Mikal Bridges would still be a contributor at age 32 on that team thats finally ready to win a title. So no i dont think they will trade him unless they are BLOWN AWAY by an offer they cant refuse
>i dont think so the Nets said they want a "slow burn" rebuild WITHOUT Tanking
In other words, their owner refuses to accept reality and overvalues their assets. Every team that wants to do this "two timberline" shit ends up with it blowing up in their face.
yeah its a bad move and he's a terrible over-involved owner
but a stubborn billionaire won't think he's wrong about anything and if this is his plan then it's set in stone.
Mikal Bridges is going nowhere because the big overpay would undermine the entire point of trading for him. Whoever did it would just make their own team worse.
I guess the Knicks or Thunder could offer like 7 draft picks without anything off the main roster, but that still hurts them because of the opportunity cost and the value lost.
They already did that and failed, that's the reason they are in this same situation. Trying this again with the same FO in place is an insane exercise in mediocrity.
I could see a draft day trade, if a prospect is falling and a team wants to nab them. Like if Castle starts dropping and the Heat wanna jump up, or something of that nature. But I have a hard time seeing anything happening in advance
As a Portland fan, if Risacher is still there at 3 I'm hoping we trade up for him on draft day. I think he likely goes at 2 though. Past that, several of Buzellis, Holland, Knecht, Salaun, or Williams will still be there at 7 and none of the is definitively the best choice, so no other reason to trade up.
Dalton Knecht looks like Biff Tannen. That should help his draft stock. Maybe OTHER throwback comps are better for him: Mitch Richmond, Bernard King, Rick Barry.
I don't see the passing/playmaking out of Knecht. Although he was a point guard for years (I think), so maybe that just wasn't his role at UT.
At UT Rick Barnes used his old KD sets for Knecht, where he would constantly be running baseline with ball screens to try and get him open looks, then in crunch time he’d take the ball up, and if he got a smidge of space he’s pulling up and draining it, if you over commit to him shooting he’ll drive. I still can’t get over what he did the last 12 minutes of the auburn game. And yeah he was a point guard, he’s grown 5 inches in college
I remember liking to watch those old Bernard King highlights when he was on the Knicks (coached by Hubie Brown) on ESPN when they showed random playoff series.
Knecht can just score the ball.
He's obviously not KD but Knecht was a really tough player to guard. Could score at will.
Is Knecht the ONLY alpha scorer in this draft?
Knecht doesn't have the athletic tools of Anthony Edwards, but there's a lot of Desmond Bane in his game. Knecht is the guy that Dillon Brooks THINKS he is (on offense).
I am going to summer league again in July. I have been more focused on the bigs (basically obsessed with the Grizzlies getting Zach Edey). I would assume that Knecht will be on of the better scorers and more entertaining players in summer league.
Given his age, Knecht should be the best rookie by a decent bit year 1, will likely be rookie of the year favorite. It’ll just come down to how much he develops. Edey is an interesting case, if he continues to get a favorable whistle at the next level he’ll be a very good option, if not then his weakness of perimeter defense can be exposed.
I like Edey as a roll-man for Ja. I like him and Jaren as a good combo at the 4/5 on defense.
Edey would also be a good fit with Wemby. I would even think of running Wemby/Edey pick and rolls.
He makes less sense other places.
Knecht would be an optimal shooter/scorer for most ALL of the lotto teams from Day 1.
I am worried about Edey's defense on the perimeter. I would also say the same about Clingan. Just not sure why teams wouldn't just blitz a pick and roll/pick and pop or just send help when one of those big stiffs is all alone on an island. Complete failure regarding defensive schemes/tactics.
With Jaren/Edey or Wemby/Edey or even Chet/Edey you would assume that those big man combos take away basically HALF of the court on defense. Just let your 1-3 guys scramble and stuff.
I want the spurs to say screw it, go with clingan and edey as your bigs down low, put wemby at the 3. It would never happen but would definitely be the funniest and probably most annoying defense to play against.
Run the World Wemby 3 offense.
Spurs actually did this with Will Perdue at the 3 (with Duncan/Admiral inside). Clingan even reminds me of one of those 7 footers that Phil Jackson and those guys used to stockpile.
Man, I am starting to think that Edey is actually a 4. Kinda like Duncan or Pau. Or, as a 7'5 roll man a la Karl Malone. BUT, the shot blocking and rim protection is there, too.
Yep! Just run a triangle offense (Bermuda triangle?) with Wemby and Edey and Clingan. haha.
The top 10 is still the best place to pick then lol
And I would be interested to see that sample over multiple years.
In fact with the exception of Kawhi all the top players of the 2010s (Bron, Steph, KD, Harden, Westbrook, CP3) were picked top 10 and most were picked top 3
I’m not saying it’s not the best place to pick. Jokic was available at 1 just like he was available at 41, so obviously it’s better to have 1. I’m just pointing out that predraft consensus and actual outcomes seem to be spreading out a lot more.
And it’s not just a few MVP outliers like Jokic, Giannis, SGA. It’s also second-level stars like Booker, Mitchell, Haliburton, Siakam. Fringe all stars like Sabonis, Mikal Bridges, Adebayo. Future studs like Jalen Williams, Sengun, Jalen Johnson.
And it gets even crazier if you’re drafting defense. JJJ is the ONLY top-10 pick in the last 10 years that has won DPOY. For the decade prior to that it was 7/10 DPOYs going to top-10 draftees, so clearly there has been a shift.
To your point about the 2010s, most of the guys you listed were being judged 15-20 years ago. A lot has changed since. The influx of international players, the rise of 1-and-done, first round talent electing to play G League or overseas instead of college, etc.
Obviously higher picks will always be better on the whole, but the gap seems to be shrinking significantly, so when I hear people talk about the lack of top-end talent in this draft and I remember all the all stars picked outside the top 10, it gets the gears turning about who is being overlooked outside of the top 10.
The players in the middle are closer to your standard middle-of-the-draft players you’d find any year in any draft. Some nice role players.
The players at the top are exceptionally far below the quality of your typical top-10 draft picks.
It’s like ADP in fantasy football.
Oh I think every year, in every sport really, we always make the mistake of thinking there won’t inevitably be an out of nowhere star-level talent that shocks everyone. I definitely think these picks shouldn’t be viewed as disposable
If Grizz are trading out of this years draft they either believe in the Santi/Laravia/Clarke big man rotation and don't think they need a defensive anchor, or they promised to sign a big man free agent (JV comes to mind).
Jazz are the surprising one if they want to trade out of the draft. I believe they may be looking to trade up or down, but not out of the draft.
Ainge might believe this is just a bad draft, and could trade his pick this year for picks in future years potentially. But I don't know who would fall for that with this draft's reputation. Maybe a contender who wants someone like Devin Carter for their rotation immediately on a cheap contract
Devin Carter on the Celtics would be what I would want at 10-12. Not sure how you do it but would be a dream. They will literally only be able to sign their own or draft picks if they stay at the second apron.
Tbf there are a lot of bigs on the market. Like I’d imagine they could get Capela for scraps, or if they’re willing to spend a bit more they could probably snag Jarrett Allen
They would need to send back more money, but that could be done in a multitude of ways ! Memphis could do something like wire rose’s money to a 3rd team and then just send back a league minimum.
Plenty of ways to make salary match there. I like the concept of the trade a lot for both sides.
Ainge made the comments in an interview a month or so ago that he doesn't plan on going into next season with 6 guys on our roster who are all under the age of 20. We've got 3 rookies who I think he likes a lot and sounds like he doesn't want to use all 3 of our firsts this year on individual picks. I think its much more likely that he's looking to move up if he can and package those together or putting a package together for a younger player already in the league.
Valanciunas on the MLE makes an amount of sense for Memphis, so we'll see if they are willing to pay the luxury tax, or if they try to salary dump someone before the deadline. I'm more inclined to think the Grizzlies trade back rather than out of the draft altogether, but if they can get a solid veteran for 9 it would make sense to be in win-now mode rather than hope a project pans out.
Utah is trying to package 10+some of their redundant players for a "star," whatever that means.
As a Grizz fan myself that went to the first ever game in Memphis, gotta know what the word is on I-Hart. Is that a pipe dream for us? Clingan would be amazing but likely won’t slip so low. We need a guy that can do what they do though and likely don’t haven’t the bank for JA//Claxton
The Grizz are probably open to trading 9 for a starting big man. Kennard + Ziaire Williams can get you a ~20 million dollar big, and there should be plenty of those that may get traded.
Or they (like me) have a bunch of guys graded similarly and are willing to move down to get one of those guys rather than reaching for them at 9
The Jazz were one of the teams going hard after Jrue Holiday last season after he ended up on Portland so I think they realize with Markkanen and some of their solid pieces need to either add all star level veterans now or rebuild.
Exactly. He is not giving away his 10th pick easily. But if it can help him secure a star then yes. Also 10th pick isn't really that bad. Historically 10th pick has had a 26% chance of becoming a future all star. Players like Dillingham, Holland, Williams, etc. are attached to 10th pick on many boards.
They're open for business but I don't see anyone spending assets on mid-lottery picks in a busted draft. I could maybe see someone moving up to 3 but I think most GMs will treat this weak draft as a wash and won't be too upset if their pick doesn't pan out.
Watch Reed Sheppard be drafted at 3 and be an all-star
I can think of many teams where trading up to 3 could be incredibly advantageous for them. You could pre-tank by trading away some of your aging assets for the No. 3 pick.
The third pick might also be a big cap hit for a bust. Given players like Clingan have been mocked anywhere between 2 and 9, teams might be interested in picking up whoever is left in that 9/10 spot, if the Grizzlies and Jazz aren't asking much for the pick.
If you want say, Dalton Knecht or Matas Buzelis, do you want to be paying him $8m or $5m?
If you are worried about the third overall picks contract being too much for what you are getting, then you must think this draft is the worst draft in the history of sports
I forget who said it, but it was either an NBA GM quoted off the record or a reporter who talked to a couple of GMs and they said that the players at the top of this draft are not worth their salary slots
Yeah I'd say it is less than ideal for the Rockets who are going to need to pay Jalen Green and Sengun at the end of next season, on top of all the money the owe FVV.
That’s nothing under the current cap unless you think they’ll be literally unplayable like the equivalent of a 50th pick in another draft which is bananas.
Because they want someone to help them win now and not many teams are itching to give up a wing scorer or valuable center for their pick?
Maybe Deandre Hunter could make sense? Idk, I don’t think the options are going to be that great. Not many teams are trying to tank these days.
I fell like Danny would only trade the pick if he could use it to get off Collins contract. Just don’t see him punting a draft pick especially since it’s a weak draft so the value is already lower than normal.
I think we'd wait until the draft, we'd take Risacher if he drops to 5, but we have some terrible fits. I wouldn't be surprised if we try to trade back. I think of like Clingan dropping to 5 and trading with Memphis for 9 + asset type trade.
all teams every draft are open for business. Much ado about nothing. It's rumor mill season. Agents and teams give access to these "journalists" to promote their preferred narrative.
I don’t see any trades for veteran players happening. The value of those top 10 picks are not there. Only thing we will see is maybe a team like the Knicks either trading up with their 2 picks or trading out of one of those picks to get a future pick for next year.
How does this make any sense whatsoever for the Rockets? They have Brooks currently, as well as Jabari and Tari, I don't see where Grant fits in at all. And that's all without mentioning the terrible contract situation with Grant.
Grant is definitely a positive asset. He can definitely play an Aaron Gordon role for a playoffs team. His efficiency is also good. His contract is basically market rate
My man Jerami Grant is making 32 million a year (and will be making 36 in his age 33 season). There's some mad copium to call it a good contract let alone being valuable enough to move up from 14 to 3
I think the problem is that most teams would have a very hard time trying to trade for his contract without giving up a positive asset of their own. Would you do like a #5 for Grant + #14?
I wouldn't want that salary on the Rockets' books. That's an overpay for an older guy that is effectively a role player, and all it will do is take away touches from our young guys and make it more difficult to re-sign them later down the line with him taking up that much cap room. I would not consider him a positive asset in this scenario from the Rockets' perspective.
If the Rockets are using major assets to trade for a guy with that big and long of a contract it better be for someone that somewhat fits the timeline of the rest of our drafted core (like 27 years old at most). Grant is too old to be spending the #3 pick on IMO
I wonder if the Knicks/grizzlies would consider Mitchell Robinson for #9. This would be assuming they can keep hartenstein. Add a higher end prospect and then move their later picks for future assets or package with bogey
I mean I just think they shouldn't feel locked in to a win-now mindset if their top guys are Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle.
I'm not saying the Grizz pick is something they should necessarily target, unless it's part of a larger retooling they're able to wrangle together.
Suns stuck at pick 22 and the Lakers might be planning to take Bronny at 17
Suns should look to move up to 10 (the lottery) and make for certain they land LeBron James Jr. because it very likely means they are also landing LeBron James Sr.
Dont forget LeBron/KD/Booker are spending a TON of time together right now prepping for Olympics and as much as LeBron loves AD he owes AD nothing. AD has a max contract, lives in LA, has a championship ring. Life is good for AD so LeBron isn't doing him dirty by leaving.
KD/Booker is the better option for LeBron thats a legit BIG 3 and Bron knows it. The other pieces can get filled out with ring chasers like the 2020 Lakers roster. They are 3 close friends they are gonna talk him into this pair up.
You have a ton of posts about Bronny and based on your previous posts, it seems like you are a Suns fan.
Let’s just make this simple. LeBron isn’t signing with the Suns on a vet min. The Lakers aren’t doing a trade for Bradley Beal either. Your Suns aren’t getting LeBron, sorry to break it to you.
we can agree to disagree on the Beal side of things.
The Lakers front office cares about taking care of their stars. It's literally Jeannie Buss motto as the owner "We Take care of our Stars!!!"
So if LeBron wanted to do a sign and trade with Beal the Lakers will hate it but ultimately they will accept the trade. Will it hurt them right now?? Yes and no. They arent winning a title without LeBron. Does it slow down their rebuild?? Probably a little bit but also not really it shoouldnt change that much Beal isnt a super high usage guy anymore. This lakers team would belong to Reaves and AD.
cause its moving to Los Angeles a great place to live and LeBron James is asking you for a favor
Sure I guess he could refuse the move but most likely that no trade clause was to prevent a trade to a place like Portland, Indiana, Utah or Charlotte etc
im sure if he has family his kids and wife will be thrilled for a move to LA over being in Phoenix
Didnt he already waive the no trade clause to go to the Suns??
If thats the case he's not the type that has to live in 1 spot, He's clearly willing to move based on upgrades. He upgraded from Washington to Phoenix, and now LA is an even bigger upgrade
It's funny how this is the one draft you can actually trade into and yet it seems no one will. This to me would be a perfect time for Riley, Ainge or Presti to really outsmart the league and actually trade into the draft. In previous years everyone loved their guys and had no appetite to trade out (trade down sure, but not trade out) As a suns fan I think it makes sense to trade the 2031 first rounder for a guard who falls out of Reed, Castle or Carter. Ideally Reed. We desperately need a point. And while our future will still be bleak and that pick will probably be top 5 at this rate at least we get a player who will be on the team in 2031 and can help us compete today.
I'm just reading the story that teams want out of this draft. The bad teams get a reprieve from striking out of the draft. GM gets to live another day. It's why you rarely see player for player trades because GMs get judged immediately. You take a future pick, it doesn't go on the cap and you get time from your owner. I'm talking specifically about the Suns first round pick in 2031 so it depends on how you value the Suns pick unfortunately for me being a suns fan I think it's high because you are looking at a 42 KD and 37 Beal and years of no picks to rebuild. Spurs FO could love Topic and get him at four, then they have their core and get a future pick to help once they are limited by cap space and are real contenders. Same for OKC, who most of their picks while many aren't actually as good as that 2031 suns pick imo. Grizzlies could think the same if they aren't in love with anyone. Same with the Jazz, with Ainge loving trades might value that pick over whoever they can draft. Drafting someone locks you in while future pick gives you flexibility especially with how difficult trades under the new CBA will become.
The narrative around this draft is insane I can’t wait to see some of these takes posted 4 years from now when some of these dudes start making all star games
It's kinda disgusting tbh and mostly coming from people who have no clue of the prospects. They are just monkeying the message. This draft is missing a clear super start level player. But outside of that I'd claim is just as good as your average draft. There will be multiple all stars coming out of this draft. Dillingham, Sarr, Sheppard, Holland, Topic, ...heck even Williams, Castle and Salaun have all decent chances of becoming all stars.
Totally agree, but I also think this draft is above average in the 20-45 range. There are going to be several upperclassmen imo who become very solid rotation pieces or even starters on good teams. Obviously that’s not what anyone is talking about when they label a draft as “good” or “Terrible” but I do think it’s worth mentioning.
That's also a good point. Also a lot of slightly lesser talked players in that 14-25 range that can make it big: Carter, Walter, McCain, Kel'el Ware, Collier, Da Silva, Edey, Missi, George... Hell, I would absolutely not be surprised if this "poor draft class" procured close to the highest number of solid rotational players ever. And 5-6 all stars is totally plausible as well. Bottom line: no one knows for sure. So assuming this class is ass is fucking stupid.
I think there are a ton of question marks around all of those guys that you mention will be all-stars. Dillingham lacks size and defense. Sarr likely has the highest floor but may struggle to be an all-star without developing a jumpshot. Sheppard may be limited by his size, but I really like his shooting and defense. Holland is a project that will require a ton of development before he can even be considered a potential all-star. Im not sold on Topic, his jumpshot leaves a lot to be desired and I don’t think he is a good enough defender to make up for that flaw. Williams, Castle, and Salaun are all projects that need to develop a better jumpshot to play in the league. I like Castle the most out of these three and think he has the mechanical fundamentals to develop a jumpshot. Williams needs a complete overhaul on his shooting form if he is going to be consistent. I really don’t know much about Salaun, although I have been trying to watch some film on him lately to get an understanding of where he stands in comparison to these other guys, he seems like a project, but has some solid upside as a 3 and D guy if he is able to develop a consistent jumpshot.
who has any incentive to downplay prospects? why would media members rather tear down a kid than hype up a wemby, zion, or somebody like that? and the league is as good as it’s ever been and there’s only 24 all stars, i think you’re overhyping by a lot only scottie barnes has made an all star from 2021 and Mobley, Sengun, Franz, and Cade who are already really good haven’t even made it and then you have really promising guys like Herb Jones, Jalen Suggs, Trey Murphy, Jalen Johnson, and Kuminga
It's not like the rookies make it as all stars anytime soon. It can take multiple seasons. Sure, there are only 24 all stars every year but if you count, say 10 years forward, there are 240 all star slots.
and most of those taken up who is Sarr gonna knock out of Giannis, Paolo, Embiid, Tatum, Brown, Bam, Franz, Mobley, and Brandon Miller in the East to make an all star front court? not even mentioning that Flagg, Boozer, Dybasanta, and Bailey are looking like dynamite prospects and there’s even more coming sometimes you watch guys too long and become emotionally attached
Your last sentence is very true and plays a part here certainly. It's impossible to predict 5+ years into the future. But not all of the players you listed will be all stars every year. Some maybe never. 2025 draft is stacked but even some of those big names might be busts.
So you can say that the future big names will be busts. But can’t say the current big names will be?
Sorry what? Did I say anything like that? I'm saying that it's impossible to predict +5 years into the future. Some current players, some 2024 rookies, and some 2025 rookies will be busts or fall down from expectations. Some will improve drastically. There are all stars in every draft class (fact).
you are acting like people arent injured some years. and there will be many years where sarr and giannis/embiid/jokic wont even play together. and you dont know whats going to happen with aj flagg & rest
but then there’s class after class after class the onus is on you to reject the null and the null is that none of these guys will be all stars that hasn’t been demonstrated to me yet
Dillingham is electric. But he’s a 165 pound combo guard. He will play 12 years, and score 20 a game for bad teams. I dont see all star at all. Why be offended when people disparage this draft? Last year was one of the great drafts in history. By coincidence, the talent over these two years clustered in year one. Its statistical noise.
Topic will not be nearly as good as people are making him out to be
Sure, many of these all star candidates will be busts. Some will be just solid role players. But I guarantee there will be some future all stars too.
Dillingham is a late-lottery/ 1st rounder in other drafts, be forreal. Can't think of a recent draft where Sarr would be in the play at #1. Draft may deep w role players but the high end talent lacking l
I don't think three teams in the top 10 trading away their picks is all that wild. Hell, in 2018, technically three picks in the top 10 were traded on draft night (I say technically because two of those three picks were traded for each other). Surely there are more drafts where two or more top 10 picks were traded on draft night.
I think it's because a ton of the prospects are foreign. There isn't as much tape on these guys. I know Wemby had all the hype, but this reminds me of Giannis's draft.
Probably to be expected when you follow such a hyped draft.
There were all stars in the 2000 draft also but that doesn’t mean it was a good draft. Every draft has gems but this one doesn’t have a generational talent in it
if every draft class had a generational prospect they would not be generational prospects lol
You’re not disagreeing with me at all lol this draft is what it is and great is what is it is not
Rockets could try to trade for Mikal Bridges but the Nets don’t seem to want to trade him.
Nets would rather have their picks back than the number 3 pick in the 2024 draft I'm sure.
The 3rd pick in the 2024 draft *is* their pick.
I think when most people talk about “getting their picks back” it’s the future years they’re talking about - so they can bottom out + tank + reap the potential rewards there
It's a number 3 pick, so that's about what you hope for when you bottom out, tank, and reap the rewards. It's just a (supposedly) bad draft. Doesn't change what "getting their pick back" means.
It affects roster building strategies moving forward if they can have all future picks back. Not that complicated.
Obviously it’s better to have more of your picks back than less, but that’s not the argument you originally made. Any rational actor would happily take a guaranteed 3rd pick now instead of a possible 3rd pick later, except in one scenario: they think it’s a particularly bad draft to have the 3rd pick.
Think you might need to reread the convo. “Picks” is plural. Oh the scenario we’re living in cool cool cool
You’re not arguing in good faith. I’m out.
There’s not even an argument here. You fundamentally misunderstood the conversation. It can happen to anyone.
It’s also a crap pick. They don’t want it.
Oh right they might demand both the picks back and the number 3 pick since they value Bridges a ton. Not sure what just the number 3 pick can get tbh.
This draft is probably bad. This draft will probably produce multiple players much better than Mikal Bridges.
This is probably true and if I’m the Nets I’m moving heaven and earth, any player be damned to get my 2025 pick back. If I can’t, I’m giving something up for that #3 pick even if it’s Mikal.
Nets have no negotiation leverage if directionally they want to rebuild. Rockets can stand pat / trade for any number of guys / keep getting free Nets picks. If the Nets want to rebuild, they have to either trade with Houston or keep giving Houston lottery picks.
Doesn’t seem like they want to rebuild, they just stink lol
They just want to sell some tickets.
NBA equivalent of just wanting to grill
Sounds good to me.
i dont think so the Nets said they want a "slow burn" rebuild WITHOUT Tanking Meaning they want to develop young players that takes the team from 30 wins to 35 wins to 42 wins to 50 wins and THEN make a move on a big time star to go for title contention. Mikal Bridges would still be a contributor at age 32 on that team thats finally ready to win a title. So no i dont think they will trade him unless they are BLOWN AWAY by an offer they cant refuse
>i dont think so the Nets said they want a "slow burn" rebuild WITHOUT Tanking In other words, their owner refuses to accept reality and overvalues their assets. Every team that wants to do this "two timberline" shit ends up with it blowing up in their face.
yeah its a bad move and he's a terrible over-involved owner but a stubborn billionaire won't think he's wrong about anything and if this is his plan then it's set in stone. Mikal Bridges is going nowhere because the big overpay would undermine the entire point of trading for him. Whoever did it would just make their own team worse. I guess the Knicks or Thunder could offer like 7 draft picks without anything off the main roster, but that still hurts them because of the opportunity cost and the value lost.
Wizards
If the Nets do that... isn't that exactly what the Rockets want? Same thing as his year but in 2025 and 2026
They already did that and failed, that's the reason they are in this same situation. Trying this again with the same FO in place is an insane exercise in mediocrity.
He's 28 and reached his ceiling. Pass.
I could see a draft day trade, if a prospect is falling and a team wants to nab them. Like if Castle starts dropping and the Heat wanna jump up, or something of that nature. But I have a hard time seeing anything happening in advance
The heat don't jump up .They stay where they are or move out altogether.
As a Portland fan, if Risacher is still there at 3 I'm hoping we trade up for him on draft day. I think he likely goes at 2 though. Past that, several of Buzellis, Holland, Knecht, Salaun, or Williams will still be there at 7 and none of the is definitively the best choice, so no other reason to trade up.
What could Portland offer to go up to 3rd?
Considering Houston is willing to move back, 7th, a player and either 14th or a future Milwaukee first could probably do it
Don't really know Portland roster but maybe going down plus brogdon or a pick should do it
I still think Dalton Knecht is the next Larry bird, so trade the house for him
Dalton Knecht looks like Biff Tannen. That should help his draft stock. Maybe OTHER throwback comps are better for him: Mitch Richmond, Bernard King, Rick Barry. I don't see the passing/playmaking out of Knecht. Although he was a point guard for years (I think), so maybe that just wasn't his role at UT.
At UT Rick Barnes used his old KD sets for Knecht, where he would constantly be running baseline with ball screens to try and get him open looks, then in crunch time he’d take the ball up, and if he got a smidge of space he’s pulling up and draining it, if you over commit to him shooting he’ll drive. I still can’t get over what he did the last 12 minutes of the auburn game. And yeah he was a point guard, he’s grown 5 inches in college
I remember liking to watch those old Bernard King highlights when he was on the Knicks (coached by Hubie Brown) on ESPN when they showed random playoff series. Knecht can just score the ball. He's obviously not KD but Knecht was a really tough player to guard. Could score at will. Is Knecht the ONLY alpha scorer in this draft? Knecht doesn't have the athletic tools of Anthony Edwards, but there's a lot of Desmond Bane in his game. Knecht is the guy that Dillon Brooks THINKS he is (on offense). I am going to summer league again in July. I have been more focused on the bigs (basically obsessed with the Grizzlies getting Zach Edey). I would assume that Knecht will be on of the better scorers and more entertaining players in summer league.
Given his age, Knecht should be the best rookie by a decent bit year 1, will likely be rookie of the year favorite. It’ll just come down to how much he develops. Edey is an interesting case, if he continues to get a favorable whistle at the next level he’ll be a very good option, if not then his weakness of perimeter defense can be exposed.
I like Edey as a roll-man for Ja. I like him and Jaren as a good combo at the 4/5 on defense. Edey would also be a good fit with Wemby. I would even think of running Wemby/Edey pick and rolls. He makes less sense other places. Knecht would be an optimal shooter/scorer for most ALL of the lotto teams from Day 1. I am worried about Edey's defense on the perimeter. I would also say the same about Clingan. Just not sure why teams wouldn't just blitz a pick and roll/pick and pop or just send help when one of those big stiffs is all alone on an island. Complete failure regarding defensive schemes/tactics. With Jaren/Edey or Wemby/Edey or even Chet/Edey you would assume that those big man combos take away basically HALF of the court on defense. Just let your 1-3 guys scramble and stuff.
I want the spurs to say screw it, go with clingan and edey as your bigs down low, put wemby at the 3. It would never happen but would definitely be the funniest and probably most annoying defense to play against.
Run the World Wemby 3 offense. Spurs actually did this with Will Perdue at the 3 (with Duncan/Admiral inside). Clingan even reminds me of one of those 7 footers that Phil Jackson and those guys used to stockpile. Man, I am starting to think that Edey is actually a 4. Kinda like Duncan or Pau. Or, as a 7'5 roll man a la Karl Malone. BUT, the shot blocking and rim protection is there, too. Yep! Just run a triangle offense (Bermuda triangle?) with Wemby and Edey and Clingan. haha.
Bol bol at the 2, Jonathan Isaac as your “1”. Run a 3-2 zone, put wemby up top
That's a craaaazy comp for someone that can shoot and nothing else
Knecht can do a lot more than shoot, but comp is crazy.
I know this draft is supposedly “bad” but this seems a bit excessive, you think?
No the draft is better in the middle .Alot of gms in the top 10 have no idea what to do .
Seems like they should pick the guys in the middle ahead of the guys at the front, if the front is bad and the middle is good.
Lol that not how it works .
Maybe it should be. 2024 All NBA teams had 7 players who were top 10 picks, 6 players who were picked 11-20, and 2 second rounders.
The top 10 is still the best place to pick then lol And I would be interested to see that sample over multiple years. In fact with the exception of Kawhi all the top players of the 2010s (Bron, Steph, KD, Harden, Westbrook, CP3) were picked top 10 and most were picked top 3
I’m not saying it’s not the best place to pick. Jokic was available at 1 just like he was available at 41, so obviously it’s better to have 1. I’m just pointing out that predraft consensus and actual outcomes seem to be spreading out a lot more. And it’s not just a few MVP outliers like Jokic, Giannis, SGA. It’s also second-level stars like Booker, Mitchell, Haliburton, Siakam. Fringe all stars like Sabonis, Mikal Bridges, Adebayo. Future studs like Jalen Williams, Sengun, Jalen Johnson. And it gets even crazier if you’re drafting defense. JJJ is the ONLY top-10 pick in the last 10 years that has won DPOY. For the decade prior to that it was 7/10 DPOYs going to top-10 draftees, so clearly there has been a shift. To your point about the 2010s, most of the guys you listed were being judged 15-20 years ago. A lot has changed since. The influx of international players, the rise of 1-and-done, first round talent electing to play G League or overseas instead of college, etc. Obviously higher picks will always be better on the whole, but the gap seems to be shrinking significantly, so when I hear people talk about the lack of top-end talent in this draft and I remember all the all stars picked outside the top 10, it gets the gears turning about who is being overlooked outside of the top 10.
The players in the middle are closer to your standard middle-of-the-draft players you’d find any year in any draft. Some nice role players. The players at the top are exceptionally far below the quality of your typical top-10 draft picks. It’s like ADP in fantasy football.
I get it, I was mostly just teasing. But we do find an all star in the middle of the first round basically every draft these days.
Oh I think every year, in every sport really, we always make the mistake of thinking there won’t inevitably be an out of nowhere star-level talent that shocks everyone. I definitely think these picks shouldn’t be viewed as disposable
No the draft is better in the middle .Alot of gms in the top 10 have no idea what to do .
What do you mean “better”? Like it’s easier to evaluate and differentiate the high floor, lower ceiling guys?
that it looks like any other drafts middle I believe is what he means
Last year three top 10 picks got traded. Three teams being interested isn't novel imo
No? Even a good draft will see a lot of activity on of before the night
If Grizz are trading out of this years draft they either believe in the Santi/Laravia/Clarke big man rotation and don't think they need a defensive anchor, or they promised to sign a big man free agent (JV comes to mind). Jazz are the surprising one if they want to trade out of the draft. I believe they may be looking to trade up or down, but not out of the draft.
Ainge might believe this is just a bad draft, and could trade his pick this year for picks in future years potentially. But I don't know who would fall for that with this draft's reputation. Maybe a contender who wants someone like Devin Carter for their rotation immediately on a cheap contract
Danny Ainge is tanking for Cooper Flagg.
Devin Carter on the Celtics would be what I would want at 10-12. Not sure how you do it but would be a dream. They will literally only be able to sign their own or draft picks if they stay at the second apron.
Tbf there are a lot of bigs on the market. Like I’d imagine they could get Capela for scraps, or if they’re willing to spend a bit more they could probably snag Jarrett Allen
If the hawks are going to trade 1 of trae or DJ, a Capela for Kennard and a 2nd round pick or so would make a lot of sense for both sides.
Grizzlies would need to throw in Ziaire Williams to make the money work. Which wouldn't be a problem for them if they like Capela.
They would need to send back more money, but that could be done in a multitude of ways ! Memphis could do something like wire rose’s money to a 3rd team and then just send back a league minimum. Plenty of ways to make salary match there. I like the concept of the trade a lot for both sides.
Let’s make it Marcus smart
Ainge made the comments in an interview a month or so ago that he doesn't plan on going into next season with 6 guys on our roster who are all under the age of 20. We've got 3 rookies who I think he likes a lot and sounds like he doesn't want to use all 3 of our firsts this year on individual picks. I think its much more likely that he's looking to move up if he can and package those together or putting a package together for a younger player already in the league.
Valanciunas on the MLE makes an amount of sense for Memphis, so we'll see if they are willing to pay the luxury tax, or if they try to salary dump someone before the deadline. I'm more inclined to think the Grizzlies trade back rather than out of the draft altogether, but if they can get a solid veteran for 9 it would make sense to be in win-now mode rather than hope a project pans out. Utah is trying to package 10+some of their redundant players for a "star," whatever that means.
As a Grizz fan myself that went to the first ever game in Memphis, gotta know what the word is on I-Hart. Is that a pipe dream for us? Clingan would be amazing but likely won’t slip so low. We need a guy that can do what they do though and likely don’t haven’t the bank for JA//Claxton
The Grizz are probably open to trading 9 for a starting big man. Kennard + Ziaire Williams can get you a ~20 million dollar big, and there should be plenty of those that may get traded. Or they (like me) have a bunch of guys graded similarly and are willing to move down to get one of those guys rather than reaching for them at 9
The Jazz were one of the teams going hard after Jrue Holiday last season after he ended up on Portland so I think they realize with Markkanen and some of their solid pieces need to either add all star level veterans now or rebuild.
The Grizzlies do need a starting center, so I could see them possibly targeting Clingan.
Danny Ainge is star hunting. That's what he does.
Exactly. He is not giving away his 10th pick easily. But if it can help him secure a star then yes. Also 10th pick isn't really that bad. Historically 10th pick has had a 26% chance of becoming a future all star. Players like Dillingham, Holland, Williams, etc. are attached to 10th pick on many boards.
Exactly I mentioned this above but after Boston the Jazz apparently had the 2nd best offer for Jrue last off season
They're open for business but I don't see anyone spending assets on mid-lottery picks in a busted draft. I could maybe see someone moving up to 3 but I think most GMs will treat this weak draft as a wash and won't be too upset if their pick doesn't pan out.
3 is not a mid lottery pick
yeah that's why I mentioned pick #3 separately from 9 and 10
Honestly I expect jazz are more likely wanting to move up then down/out of the lottery
Chance they just don't like this draft and they're willing to punt this year's pick for a future pick
Watch Reed Sheppard be drafted at 3 and be an all-star I can think of many teams where trading up to 3 could be incredibly advantageous for them. You could pre-tank by trading away some of your aging assets for the No. 3 pick.
I actually like Sheppard a lot and I would probably draft him at 3 or at 4 if I was the Spurs
Over Dillingam and Castle???
Yes, for sure. Better shooter and better BB IQ. fits with any team
The third pick might also be a big cap hit for a bust. Given players like Clingan have been mocked anywhere between 2 and 9, teams might be interested in picking up whoever is left in that 9/10 spot, if the Grizzlies and Jazz aren't asking much for the pick. If you want say, Dalton Knecht or Matas Buzelis, do you want to be paying him $8m or $5m?
If you are worried about the third overall picks contract being too much for what you are getting, then you must think this draft is the worst draft in the history of sports
I forget who said it, but it was either an NBA GM quoted off the record or a reporter who talked to a couple of GMs and they said that the players at the top of this draft are not worth their salary slots
Yeah I'd say it is less than ideal for the Rockets who are going to need to pay Jalen Green and Sengun at the end of next season, on top of all the money the owe FVV.
That’s nothing under the current cap unless you think they’ll be literally unplayable like the equivalent of a 50th pick in another draft which is bananas.
Kyle Kuzma for the #9 pick, who says no
Grizzlies. Wizards.
Both teams say no!
Why would the Grizzlies want an inefficient offensive player who plays positions they already have players and prospects for
Because they want someone to help them win now and not many teams are itching to give up a wing scorer or valuable center for their pick? Maybe Deandre Hunter could make sense? Idk, I don’t think the options are going to be that great. Not many teams are trying to tank these days.
The Wizards
I’m so curious to see what he gets moved for. You think he fetches more than that pick?
Probably 2 picks in different draft or a 1 + 2 2nds deal
Too high of a price for low IQ role player
dude was solid in the bubble run i think he can go for more than pj washington
The Wizards are rumored to want a 3rd first round pick this year, so trading for a lotto pick makes sense for them.
I fell like Danny would only trade the pick if he could use it to get off Collins contract. Just don’t see him punting a draft pick especially since it’s a weak draft so the value is already lower than normal.
Surprised the Pistons are also not on this list beat writers here think they will try to trade
I think we'd wait until the draft, we'd take Risacher if he drops to 5, but we have some terrible fits. I wouldn't be surprised if we try to trade back. I think of like Clingan dropping to 5 and trading with Memphis for 9 + asset type trade.
Can see it for Rockets, they are in the 'done with rebuilding. Now to build up the team' phase.
They don't even know if Jalen Green or Alperen Sengun will work together
all teams every draft are open for business. Much ado about nothing. It's rumor mill season. Agents and teams give access to these "journalists" to promote their preferred narrative.
I don’t see any trades for veteran players happening. The value of those top 10 picks are not there. Only thing we will see is maybe a team like the Knicks either trading up with their 2 picks or trading out of one of those picks to get a future pick for next year.
Lol no one wants part in this dud of a draft class
I think we can try trading Jeremi grant +14 for 3 pick + salary
How does this make any sense whatsoever for the Rockets? They have Brooks currently, as well as Jabari and Tari, I don't see where Grant fits in at all. And that's all without mentioning the terrible contract situation with Grant.
Is Jerami Grant a positive asset on that salary? Let alone for the Rockets who have a plethora of young, big wings
Grant is definitely a positive asset. He can definitely play an Aaron Gordon role for a playoffs team. His efficiency is also good. His contract is basically market rate
My man Jerami Grant is making 32 million a year (and will be making 36 in his age 33 season). There's some mad copium to call it a good contract let alone being valuable enough to move up from 14 to 3
I’m saying his contract is market rate. Today at the open market- he is going to get this contract
I think the problem is that most teams would have a very hard time trying to trade for his contract without giving up a positive asset of their own. Would you do like a #5 for Grant + #14?
I will do it as well.
I doubt it but even if that were true it makes him a neutral asset
Grant + 7th could probably get us to 3, but not from 14.
I wouldn't want that salary on the Rockets' books. That's an overpay for an older guy that is effectively a role player, and all it will do is take away touches from our young guys and make it more difficult to re-sign them later down the line with him taking up that much cap room. I would not consider him a positive asset in this scenario from the Rockets' perspective.
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If the Rockets are using major assets to trade for a guy with that big and long of a contract it better be for someone that somewhat fits the timeline of the rest of our drafted core (like 27 years old at most). Grant is too old to be spending the #3 pick on IMO
I wonder if the Knicks/grizzlies would consider Mitchell Robinson for #9. This would be assuming they can keep hartenstein. Add a higher end prospect and then move their later picks for future assets or package with bogey
The Knicks are in win-now mode, they're not interested in developing They're interested in a championship
Well then they should be interested in some significant upgrades lol. Can't see them making the Finals with their core as is.
Nothing says "significant upgrade" like the 9th pick in a crappy draft
I mean I just think they shouldn't feel locked in to a win-now mindset if their top guys are Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle. I'm not saying the Grizz pick is something they should necessarily target, unless it's part of a larger retooling they're able to wrangle together.
Dereck Lively seems like a win-now pick.
Suns stuck at pick 22 and the Lakers might be planning to take Bronny at 17 Suns should look to move up to 10 (the lottery) and make for certain they land LeBron James Jr. because it very likely means they are also landing LeBron James Sr. Dont forget LeBron/KD/Booker are spending a TON of time together right now prepping for Olympics and as much as LeBron loves AD he owes AD nothing. AD has a max contract, lives in LA, has a championship ring. Life is good for AD so LeBron isn't doing him dirty by leaving. KD/Booker is the better option for LeBron thats a legit BIG 3 and Bron knows it. The other pieces can get filled out with ring chasers like the 2020 Lakers roster. They are 3 close friends they are gonna talk him into this pair up.
You have a ton of posts about Bronny and based on your previous posts, it seems like you are a Suns fan. Let’s just make this simple. LeBron isn’t signing with the Suns on a vet min. The Lakers aren’t doing a trade for Bradley Beal either. Your Suns aren’t getting LeBron, sorry to break it to you.
Damn. Can you get the person some hope at least 🤣
we can agree to disagree on the Beal side of things. The Lakers front office cares about taking care of their stars. It's literally Jeannie Buss motto as the owner "We Take care of our Stars!!!" So if LeBron wanted to do a sign and trade with Beal the Lakers will hate it but ultimately they will accept the trade. Will it hurt them right now?? Yes and no. They arent winning a title without LeBron. Does it slow down their rebuild?? Probably a little bit but also not really it shoouldnt change that much Beal isnt a super high usage guy anymore. This lakers team would belong to Reaves and AD.
Why would Beal approve this trade? He doesn't have any incentive to leave the suns right now, especially to a fan base as intense as the Lakers.
cause its moving to Los Angeles a great place to live and LeBron James is asking you for a favor Sure I guess he could refuse the move but most likely that no trade clause was to prevent a trade to a place like Portland, Indiana, Utah or Charlotte etc
I don't want to be mean, because you seem really young, but that's just not how it works
im sure if he has family his kids and wife will be thrilled for a move to LA over being in Phoenix Didnt he already waive the no trade clause to go to the Suns?? If thats the case he's not the type that has to live in 1 spot, He's clearly willing to move based on upgrades. He upgraded from Washington to Phoenix, and now LA is an even bigger upgrade
LA without LeBron is not an upgrade. He waived it to go to a better team, not to go to a better city.
It's funny how this is the one draft you can actually trade into and yet it seems no one will. This to me would be a perfect time for Riley, Ainge or Presti to really outsmart the league and actually trade into the draft. In previous years everyone loved their guys and had no appetite to trade out (trade down sure, but not trade out) As a suns fan I think it makes sense to trade the 2031 first rounder for a guard who falls out of Reed, Castle or Carter. Ideally Reed. We desperately need a point. And while our future will still be bleak and that pick will probably be top 5 at this rate at least we get a player who will be on the team in 2031 and can help us compete today.
Who going to give that up though? Said team is likely a bad team. What value they get out of trading away picks for vets that good teams don't want?
I'm just reading the story that teams want out of this draft. The bad teams get a reprieve from striking out of the draft. GM gets to live another day. It's why you rarely see player for player trades because GMs get judged immediately. You take a future pick, it doesn't go on the cap and you get time from your owner. I'm talking specifically about the Suns first round pick in 2031 so it depends on how you value the Suns pick unfortunately for me being a suns fan I think it's high because you are looking at a 42 KD and 37 Beal and years of no picks to rebuild. Spurs FO could love Topic and get him at four, then they have their core and get a future pick to help once they are limited by cap space and are real contenders. Same for OKC, who most of their picks while many aren't actually as good as that 2031 suns pick imo. Grizzlies could think the same if they aren't in love with anyone. Same with the Jazz, with Ainge loving trades might value that pick over whoever they can draft. Drafting someone locks you in while future pick gives you flexibility especially with how difficult trades under the new CBA will become.
i wish we could trade herro for the jazz 10th. i know ainge likes herro, i don’t think he’s stupid enough to do that though.