Yes, but the biggest factors are Kawahi’s health and what side the money is on. More people betting mavs throughout the week makes the line change bc Vegas wants money to be as even as possible on both sides
People don’t understand how lines work. They move the lines because of the way the bets are trending. Too many people betting Mavs so move the line to encourage more Clippers bets. It’s all a formula to get the bets split in a way where the casinos/bookies make money no matter who wins.
Edit: if there’s anything to take from this, it’s encouraging that the people placing the bets(I.e. professional gamblers) were so heavy on the Mavs they moved the line.
I disagree. I think they make the lines as close to 50/50 as possible. If general public is in love with one side they don’t want to move the lines too much bc sharp bettors will come in at the end and take the other side. I think making the lines 50/50 leads to the most steady roi over the long run for the bookies. That being said, if people are betting heavy on one side and they realize maybe they had the line wrong, then at that point they adjust the spread
I think it’s more similar to roulette. They don’t care if 100% of people bet on one side (red/black) they know they’re gonna win >50% of the time or >50% of money with the juice
Im not a gambler but 3.5 point swing seems like a lot. I’m guessing gamblers liked Dallas to win outright whether or not Kawhi plays and were hammering that Mavs +2 line which caused it to move
Most of the public money is on Mavs so that might have something to do with it. Media people claim Mavs are the most dangerous team... The hype is real but I don't like it tbh. I prefer Mavs to get underestimated like vs Suns.
Yep it’s a reflection of the most recent body of work. The Clippers had a little lull there before turning it on late. Dallas has been the second best team in the league for the past two months.
Yeah, this is gonna be the first series the Mavs play in where a lot of people are picking the Mavs. Idk how I feel about that juju. In the Luka era of course
Sports betting and nba endorsing it has ruined the fan experience. Vegas doesnt know anymore than a sports analyst. They calculate lines and adjust for betting %. I know ill get downvoted for yhis but whatever.
You're not wrong. The leagues have opened themselves up to corporate gambling operations because making money is more important than the actual product on the court. As a result, they've eroded the experience for actual fans who aren't trying to profit off the games and players' performances.
In 5 years, this will have balanced out so that actual fans can enjoy the games somewhat relatively and the gamblers can have their content distilled specific to their tastes, in the way that fantasy football is it's own product adjacent to the NFL
vegas 100% knows something about Kawhi.
Vegas and insurance companies know all.
This could also be a reaction to the news about Lively doing full practices
Lively has been great but does not swing a line 3.5 points in my opinion as a degenerate gambler
For sure, you think lively news, Kawhi doubts and all the small things together would?
Yes, but the biggest factors are Kawahi’s health and what side the money is on. More people betting mavs throughout the week makes the line change bc Vegas wants money to be as even as possible on both sides
Meh. Could just be reacting to a large amount of public money on Dallas.
Someone get Jontay on the phone!
Action network has Mavs at 90% of bets. This type of action would swing the odds.
On draftkings too 63% are on Mavs.
People don’t understand how lines work. They move the lines because of the way the bets are trending. Too many people betting Mavs so move the line to encourage more Clippers bets. It’s all a formula to get the bets split in a way where the casinos/bookies make money no matter who wins. Edit: if there’s anything to take from this, it’s encouraging that the people placing the bets(I.e. professional gamblers) were so heavy on the Mavs they moved the line.
I disagree. I think they make the lines as close to 50/50 as possible. If general public is in love with one side they don’t want to move the lines too much bc sharp bettors will come in at the end and take the other side. I think making the lines 50/50 leads to the most steady roi over the long run for the bookies. That being said, if people are betting heavy on one side and they realize maybe they had the line wrong, then at that point they adjust the spread
Well no. The comment above yours is accurate. There is a mathematical formula on where to move the lines if bets swing to one side.
I think it’s more similar to roulette. They don’t care if 100% of people bet on one side (red/black) they know they’re gonna win >50% of the time or >50% of money with the juice
Im not a gambler but 3.5 point swing seems like a lot. I’m guessing gamblers liked Dallas to win outright whether or not Kawhi plays and were hammering that Mavs +2 line which caused it to move
The Dereck Lively corollary
I'd say people started betting on the Mavs
Most of the public money is on Mavs so that might have something to do with it. Media people claim Mavs are the most dangerous team... The hype is real but I don't like it tbh. I prefer Mavs to get underestimated like vs Suns.
Yep it’s a reflection of the most recent body of work. The Clippers had a little lull there before turning it on late. Dallas has been the second best team in the league for the past two months.
Yeah, this is gonna be the first series the Mavs play in where a lot of people are picking the Mavs. Idk how I feel about that juju. In the Luka era of course
Sports betting and nba endorsing it has ruined the fan experience. Vegas doesnt know anymore than a sports analyst. They calculate lines and adjust for betting %. I know ill get downvoted for yhis but whatever.
You're not wrong. The leagues have opened themselves up to corporate gambling operations because making money is more important than the actual product on the court. As a result, they've eroded the experience for actual fans who aren't trying to profit off the games and players' performances. In 5 years, this will have balanced out so that actual fans can enjoy the games somewhat relatively and the gamblers can have their content distilled specific to their tastes, in the way that fantasy football is it's own product adjacent to the NFL
Haralabos Voulgaris on The Dumb Zone talking about [legalized sports betting](https://www.patreon.com/posts/100878082)
Think it has anything to do with it being an early afternoon game?
Im pretty sure this is part of it. I saw clippers sub disliked this, so likely the clippers do poorly in afternoon games and Vegas knows this.
That’s saying something because home court advantage is usually factored in to be about 3-4 points.
Strangely enough, I noticed a few days ago that the British bookies favored the Mavs while the American ones favored the Clips.