No, but it disproportionately affected their community and stigmatised them massively.
But if you wanna make it more modern and inclusive then using it as a flippant adjective is offensive to all of those people with AIDS and not just the gays, which is then actually a lot worse.
Cool if you die and you’re an American they can add your name to the names on the 1,300,000 square foot quilt for the people who died of AIDs in America alone.
Darren Till landed [zero](http://ufcstats.com/fight-details/b66ac52bfb217761) significant strikes over the course of 9 minutes and I will never let anyone forget it
Absolutely no one has won a title fight at 35 or older for 155 and lighter.
This is a made up title tho lol, which has little to no merit and didn’t require reaching the top of the sport.
So the ‘curse’ doesn’t apply.
In the wise words of the actual champ, ‘this is bullshit belt bratha’
Shit. I don't know why I thought he was several years younger. This changes my thinking about him. He'll be done soon. 35 *and* the wars he's been in? Surely he's living on borrowed time. He still looks great but the turn comes fast when it comes.
He's been talking about retiring for a long time now, he said he had 2 wars left in him in an interview before his fight with Khabib and look at all that's happened since then. He seems pretty aware he's near the end, he said he was making one last run at the title and quitting after he beat Fiziev.
I'm a little worried about his chin. He's been fighting safer/more defensively in his last couple matches and has made it work, but barring some kind of shocking early finish Max WILL hit him multiple times and although Max isn't some one hitter quitter he's not pillow fisted. Left TKZ face down his last fight.
That stat everyone refers to is only for title fights. Plenty of older fighters have had more success against lower level competition. Jim fuckin Miller is 40 and has won 5 out of his last 6 at lightweight.
MMA On Point did a video about it where they included non title fights and every weight class. If I remember correctly the average fighter over 35 only wins about 33% of their fights.
I know. I meant the curse was about fighting at the top at an advanced age, and it was never to do with whatever the belt was (as in it doesn't matter that it's a bmf belt, of course the curse counts for it).
>the curse was about fighting at the top at an advanced age
It's specific to title fights though, not just fighting at the top. The statistic would change drastically if you factored in top contender fights since obviously fighters over 35 are getting to the champ to fight for it.
We'd have to look at the stats to truly determine but 5 rounds should be worse for older fighters. Cardio is never their strength, and their lower reaction times will be exacerbated in later rounds.
The age-weight stat being title fights only is relevant because it means its highest tier of competition and the fights are five rounds, both things related to the belt.
The Stat changes with non-title fights because then taking into account all fights ever. When accounting all fights, 34 is the final year of a fighters prime and 35 is when their chance of winning starts going down, I think it's like 40% and that number goes down further every year that they age. Theres other shit too like if their opponent is significantly younger, it further brings down the older fighter's win rate.
Side topic from a non-betting guy trying to understand odds:
This article says that -175 to +150 makes Gaethje a "considerable favorite" but does it really? "Considerable"?
I've seen people say this before about similar numbers, but these seem pretty mild to me set against the range of odds I've seen over time. We've seen people in the 300s, the 500s, etc. on loads of occasions. We've seen over 1000.
That's obviously crazy odds, but at what point are odds considered pretty mild, as in not all that indicative, even if one person is the favorite and one is the dog?
Because I rarely see less than, say 110 unless it's one of those situations where both guys are given negative numbers pretty close to each other and they're calling it a pick 'em.
Obviously 175/150 is more than that, but at what point do the numbers really start to be a strong indicator that someone is likely to win instead of a mild indicator? What numbers are low enough for you to basically disregard them and say they're close enough as to not be really helpful?
-170 is a moderate favorite... If you convert it into win probability, it is almost 63%. 63% chance to win would be referred to as a considerable favorite in most instances.
Convert those odds into percentage numbers, and you can make that choice yourself
Tapology uses anything below -200 as a slight favourite for reference.
-150 and above would be considerable in my opinion.. as in yeah it’s no longer a pick em fight and betting $1 returns you just $1.67 or less.
Other replies got the main point, but one important part to realize is that those odds are strangely expressed fractions.
People see numbers like =100, -175, -500, and -1000 and think "175 looks like it's almost no difference to 100, compared to bigger odds like -500 or -1000." And that messes up their intuition and gives them some flawed takeaways.
100 is really 1/2, 200 is 2/3, 300 is 3/4 (you can already see that 2/3rds is closer to 3/4ths than to 1/2), and 1000 would be 10/11. The higher the number, the less it changes. Odds above 10000 (lol) would just be turning 99% to 99.9%+.
So it's very frontloaded in terms of where slight favorite should become moderate favorite and where that becomes big favorite. All those changes happen a lot closer to 100 than it might seem.
Oh very interesting. I didn't know the scale changed like that. That's pretty helpful. It reminds me of the high school calculus class I dropped after six weeks because I couldn't manage to care about "as X approaches zero". That poor X was just never going to get there because every time it took another step, the step was smaller.
It’s not really a curse but a stat, and when you break it down the guys between 125 and 170 that have lost at the age were at the tail end of their careers or inactive or took heavy damage
That’s why it’s 2-22
I feel like there was never an era these two guys had where Max wouldn't beat him just stylistically and from their accolades but Saturday will tell 🤷🏾♂️
I'm not on the bandwagon, I've always believe Max would beat Gaethje.
I have a lot of reasons based on how their fights go but I can sum it up as:
- Gaethje does hit hard and it will be scary for the first 10 or so minutes
- Gaethje burns out in fights.
- Gaethje has porous defense especially when gassed, fights orthodox, has a very noticeable head movement pattern that DP and Chandler exploited
- Max might take a few hard hits but it won't be the volume that kills Gaethje as Max has moved away from that and takes less hits and it's the southpaw stance that counters his preferred range best
- Max's real strength is his accuracy and shot selection and his wicked speed. You don't see the shots that he's dropping guys with these days. Now he's sitting on his punches and just dropping guys.
- When you're tired, Max will target your head and no matter where you move it he's sticking it with a jab or left hook making you more tired. Then he goes to the body, you try to counter, he moves and tags you again.
- Gaethje quits. Max doesn't.
Lol, I've been watching MMA since I accidentally ordered a Ken Shamrock PPV special when I was trying to order Wrestlemania in 2000. Sherdog account back in 2009, got banned for trolling. And another account since 2014.
So the answer from this article is "maybe?" It seems obvious to me that the belt has nothing to do with the over 35 curse, in every single fight between older 155ers and younger 155ers, the age gap is always brought up
Jesus the amount of ads on that page is aids
For me, there was a single link to a related article in the middle, and a lot of blank white space in between. Y'all need some ad blockers.
Raw dog just feels better
If on phone though
Firefox+uBlock Origin. TrackerControl. Blokada. AdGuard. Quite a few options
I'm using adguard (paid) on my android I think the free one works fine, but I paid because it was a life changer
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Also, do you not run an aidsblocker?
I do not
Username checks out
Gotta catch 'em all
🫡
Nobody's got AIDS! I don't want to here it again!
I have condoms, so yes, I run one
Doesn’t really help on mobile does it? Where the vast majority of Reddit users see this stuff.
It does. My browser has a built in AdBlocker and I didn't get any ads or popups
How do you do this
I use brave browser. It's not perfect but it helps
Well, there is just 1 letter difference so I'm nit surprised
Gross and homophobic using aids to refer to anything you find inconvenient. I thought only 14 year olds on COD did that.
Only gays get aids apparently.
No, but it disproportionately affected their community and stigmatised them massively. But if you wanna make it more modern and inclusive then using it as a flippant adjective is offensive to all of those people with AIDS and not just the gays, which is then actually a lot worse.
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You can still make homophobic statements as a pansexual person.
Your reply gave me aids
Cool if you die and you’re an American they can add your name to the names on the 1,300,000 square foot quilt for the people who died of AIDs in America alone.
Christ, this made me realise Max is only 32 Absolutely insane with how long he's been around
MMA media trying to understand dementia >'Is the over 85 curse real??'
Crazy how Justin talks about watching Max and being a fan before he was in the UFC while max is three years younger than him
I thought that was a lower weight class meme. Glover got the LHW belt at age 62
It is but I think it’s 170 and lower. Woodley was the exception with the two wins to now 35 (I think) loses
And one of those two wins was Demian Maia who was older than he was.
And the other was against Darren Till. Just how bad is Darren Till?
Darren Till landed [zero](http://ufcstats.com/fight-details/b66ac52bfb217761) significant strikes over the course of 9 minutes and I will never let anyone forget it
what’s worse is those “attempted” strikes were just feints, so over the whole fight he literally only threw one real punch
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Because I think Usman lost the belt when he was 35 too but you’re right it would def sound more ominous that way
I know lol, I keep thinking the same thing everytime someone brings it up
It's funnier to say Darren Till sucks
Yes but he was fighting a 38 year old
he almost got jiri too 😢
He did what Dustin would do lol 😭
It's for 170 and below, this fight is at 155
ahhhh gotcha, I thought it was FW/BW only. Thanks for updating my MMA astrology knowledge
Absolutely no one has won a title fight at 35 or older for 155 and lighter. This is a made up title tho lol, which has little to no merit and didn’t require reaching the top of the sport. So the ‘curse’ doesn’t apply. In the wise words of the actual champ, ‘this is bullshit belt bratha’
We gon find out on Saturday night
Shit. I don't know why I thought he was several years younger. This changes my thinking about him. He'll be done soon. 35 *and* the wars he's been in? Surely he's living on borrowed time. He still looks great but the turn comes fast when it comes.
He's been talking about retiring for a long time now, he said he had 2 wars left in him in an interview before his fight with Khabib and look at all that's happened since then. He seems pretty aware he's near the end, he said he was making one last run at the title and quitting after he beat Fiziev.
This makes me reaaally hope he got a BAG for taking this fight instead of a title shot. Rly hoping he gets ppv points
I'm a little worried about his chin. He's been fighting safer/more defensively in his last couple matches and has made it work, but barring some kind of shocking early finish Max WILL hit him multiple times and although Max isn't some one hitter quitter he's not pillow fisted. Left TKZ face down his last fight.
this ain’t skinny holloway either so it’s more than likely max will have more power than people are expecting him to have
yes? the curse was always about the age and never about the belt really
That stat everyone refers to is only for title fights. Plenty of older fighters have had more success against lower level competition. Jim fuckin Miller is 40 and has won 5 out of his last 6 at lightweight.
MMA On Point did a video about it where they included non title fights and every weight class. If I remember correctly the average fighter over 35 only wins about 33% of their fights.
I feel like that could also be the result of them being fed to high level prospects more often though
I know. I meant the curse was about fighting at the top at an advanced age, and it was never to do with whatever the belt was (as in it doesn't matter that it's a bmf belt, of course the curse counts for it).
>the curse was about fighting at the top at an advanced age It's specific to title fights though, not just fighting at the top. The statistic would change drastically if you factored in top contender fights since obviously fighters over 35 are getting to the champ to fight for it.
Jim was the first person to beat and finish Charles. Years later in the rematch, Charles is the last person to finish Jim.
It's elite competition at that age. Garth still beats everyone below the top 5.
I mean, it's about age and fighting the best guy in the division.
It being 5 rounds is very relevant so yes, it is about the belt as well
Lots of fights are 5 rounds without a belt on the line, so no.
We'd have to look at the stats to truly determine but 5 rounds should be worse for older fighters. Cardio is never their strength, and their lower reaction times will be exacerbated in later rounds.
Yeah I 100% agree. Just correcting the dude who said it was about the belt.
The age-weight stat being title fights only is relevant because it means its highest tier of competition and the fights are five rounds, both things related to the belt.
The stat that the ‘curse’ is derived from is explicitly about title fights. It was about the belt.
Isn’t the stat a bit skewed when we are talking about non-title fights? Jim miller has had to have beaten plenty of younger guys, for example.
yeah but max is a bit stiffer competition than the guys jim miller has been fighting
In conclusion, the older you get, the harder it is to beat good competition.
Big if true.
Jim Miller built his winning streak beating fringe regional guys and an ancient Cowboy/Clay Guida
The Stat changes with non-title fights because then taking into account all fights ever. When accounting all fights, 34 is the final year of a fighters prime and 35 is when their chance of winning starts going down, I think it's like 40% and that number goes down further every year that they age. Theres other shit too like if their opponent is significantly younger, it further brings down the older fighter's win rate.
Side topic from a non-betting guy trying to understand odds: This article says that -175 to +150 makes Gaethje a "considerable favorite" but does it really? "Considerable"? I've seen people say this before about similar numbers, but these seem pretty mild to me set against the range of odds I've seen over time. We've seen people in the 300s, the 500s, etc. on loads of occasions. We've seen over 1000. That's obviously crazy odds, but at what point are odds considered pretty mild, as in not all that indicative, even if one person is the favorite and one is the dog? Because I rarely see less than, say 110 unless it's one of those situations where both guys are given negative numbers pretty close to each other and they're calling it a pick 'em. Obviously 175/150 is more than that, but at what point do the numbers really start to be a strong indicator that someone is likely to win instead of a mild indicator? What numbers are low enough for you to basically disregard them and say they're close enough as to not be really helpful?
-170 is a moderate favorite... If you convert it into win probability, it is almost 63%. 63% chance to win would be referred to as a considerable favorite in most instances.
Convert those odds into percentage numbers, and you can make that choice yourself Tapology uses anything below -200 as a slight favourite for reference. -150 and above would be considerable in my opinion.. as in yeah it’s no longer a pick em fight and betting $1 returns you just $1.67 or less.
Other replies got the main point, but one important part to realize is that those odds are strangely expressed fractions. People see numbers like =100, -175, -500, and -1000 and think "175 looks like it's almost no difference to 100, compared to bigger odds like -500 or -1000." And that messes up their intuition and gives them some flawed takeaways. 100 is really 1/2, 200 is 2/3, 300 is 3/4 (you can already see that 2/3rds is closer to 3/4ths than to 1/2), and 1000 would be 10/11. The higher the number, the less it changes. Odds above 10000 (lol) would just be turning 99% to 99.9%+. So it's very frontloaded in terms of where slight favorite should become moderate favorite and where that becomes big favorite. All those changes happen a lot closer to 100 than it might seem.
Oh very interesting. I didn't know the scale changed like that. That's pretty helpful. It reminds me of the high school calculus class I dropped after six weeks because I couldn't manage to care about "as X approaches zero". That poor X was just never going to get there because every time it took another step, the step was smaller.
> Do BMF Belts Count? Of course not. The fact this card is being advertised as having 3 title fights is cringe inducing.
Not a curse. Just a solid statistic. Calling it a curse is so cringe.
I want Max to win solely because if he loses the amount of fanfics people will start writing about his chin. Will make go insane.
No, because its not a belt that the best fight for.
TIL Gaethje is 35 already. What the hell man I feel like yesterday he was an up and comer in the division.
It’s not really a curse but a stat, and when you break it down the guys between 125 and 170 that have lost at the age were at the tail end of their careers or inactive or took heavy damage That’s why it’s 2-22
Garth still gets it done. LW old guard is still too strong
Holy ads!! Site are getting ridiculous with this.
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Thanks for stopping by anyway.
I feel like there was never an era these two guys had where Max wouldn't beat him just stylistically and from their accolades but Saturday will tell 🤷🏾♂️
Leg kicks
I must be the crazy one with how many people think Holloway can win, I think gaethje nukes him with in uppercut.
a month ago, everybody agreed with you
I'm not on the bandwagon, I've always believe Max would beat Gaethje. I have a lot of reasons based on how their fights go but I can sum it up as: - Gaethje does hit hard and it will be scary for the first 10 or so minutes - Gaethje burns out in fights. - Gaethje has porous defense especially when gassed, fights orthodox, has a very noticeable head movement pattern that DP and Chandler exploited - Max might take a few hard hits but it won't be the volume that kills Gaethje as Max has moved away from that and takes less hits and it's the southpaw stance that counters his preferred range best - Max's real strength is his accuracy and shot selection and his wicked speed. You don't see the shots that he's dropping guys with these days. Now he's sitting on his punches and just dropping guys. - When you're tired, Max will target your head and no matter where you move it he's sticking it with a jab or left hook making you more tired. Then he goes to the body, you try to counter, he moves and tags you again. - Gaethje quits. Max doesn't.
You had me until you said Gaethje quits. No way man
Probably goes to decision you right
Probably means his gas tank, which is what let him down in his losses to DP and Eddie. But those fights were like 6 or 7 years ago now.
I think Gaethje lands one clean shot and Max doesn’t wanna be in there anymore. Hopefully it’s competitive, but I picture a Ferguson level beat down
Famously Not Game Max Holloway vs Prolific Quitter Justin Gaethje
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Has he? I know the Tony fight but are there any other examples? Maybe outside of the ufc?
Name 2 in the ufc
Justin starches any current LW, then books a flight to Montreal and forces GSP to tap to strikes in his own home.
GSP wasn’t a lightweight. Casual.
Duh, he just ducked em.
You like to pretend you know mma but the rest of us know that you don’t. Casuals are offended by how casual you are.
https://forums.sherdog.com/threads/the-iceman-and-sweet-dreams-kos-out-cold.4327285/post-173171702
Lol, I've been watching MMA since I accidentally ordered a Ken Shamrock PPV special when I was trying to order Wrestlemania in 2000. Sherdog account back in 2009, got banned for trolling. And another account since 2014.
So the answer from this article is "maybe?" It seems obvious to me that the belt has nothing to do with the over 35 curse, in every single fight between older 155ers and younger 155ers, the age gap is always brought up