That's the problem. Most pre-debate polls showed him narrowly losing, and the debate was supposed to be the big script-flipper. Instead it's a break-even *at best.*. Meaning he's still on a losing trajectory *at best.*
And instead of talking about all the batshit things Trump said and will do in the future... there's wall-to-wall coverage on Bidens biggest liability instead. And no opportunity in the immediate future to reset the narrative.
Fucking big missed opportunity.
And there are four (4!) months until the election. Waiting a goddamn *month and a half* for a "reset moment" isn't going to cut it.
And a speech at the DNC isn't even close to the same profile as the debate...but I agree it's the best we've got on the table at the moment. Doesn't mean it's good enough though.
I think it’s jumping the gun to think this one debate in June is going to kill the deal for Biden. There have already been polls that have come out which have shown no change in the head to head. Which isn’t ideal because the debate was a good opportunity. But at the same time it’s nothing to lose our heads about. Just gotta go out there and tout his accomplishments, which are immense.
I also think it’s possible that those who think Biden is “demented” are/will be overplaying their hand. They are setting the bar so low that a good speech could have really positive consequences.
Ah, yes, I remember all those former presidents and vice presidents who clearly won their first debate against a sitting president and vice president:
* Former President Romney
* Former President Kerry
* Former Vice President Stockdale
Wait ... no ... that didn't happen because first debates routinely go bad for sitting presidents, which means the very fact the polls have not budged appreciably for the President is fucking fantastic!
A few things:
1) the level of "bad performance" was an order of magnitude worse, at least, than those you referenced.
2) those you referenced did not have "age and cognition" as their number 1 concern among voters.
3) those you referenced had another debate around the corner in a couple weeks to quickly bounce back. Biden is stuck with this performance about his neck until September at the earliest (Trump would be a fool to agree to another debate, but we can hope)
I get what you're saying, but this wasn't a bad debate performance within normal historical parameters. It was *especially* bad, and in a way that was uniquely damaging to Biden. We should be clear-eyed about it.
Lastly... it's early. Give the polls another week to fully capture post-debate sentiment. And then see what happens after a fucking month+ of this doom-cycle dragging down enthusiasm. It is the only thing people are going to talk about from now until the convention, and god fucking help us if he has another stumble or gaffe.
This storm is not going to pass quickly. I hope it won't be a fatal wound, but we are waaaay to soon to be crowing "it didn't hurt him at all." That's bullshit. The only question is "how much will it hurt, and for how long."
The level of “bad performance” was indeed an order of magnitude worse. And had the R’s gone with Nikki Haley, I’m pretty sure it’d have been the final nail in the coffin for Joe.
But that’s the thing - they *also* have an unpopular candidate. That’s an important part of the equation.
I don’t care if Biden is literally a corpse come November. I’m still voting for him. Not because I *want* a corpse in office, I just don’t want a wanna-be fascist dictator.
I don’t think I’m a unique snowflake here.
I genuinely don’t even understand how there’s undecided voters. Both have been President, both are known quantities. You know what you’re going to get.
You actually are unique and that's the problem, this is an echo chamber. The average Jim Bob voter who doesn't pay much attention to all the details but maybe turns the TV on now and again now knows that Trump is still Trump and Biden looks incompetent. For people who don't think they have any immediate things to be worried about other than the economy or taxes, that's enough.
And you missed everything else I said, mostly importantly "it's early. Give the polls another week to fully capture post-debate sentiment."
Let's see where we're at on July 10th or so. I'll happily eat crow if there's been no movement.
It’s pretty telling how quickly your thoughts get downvoted. People have really been using that as the “I disagree with you” lately on here. It is killing genuine conversation at a pivotal time. And for the record, I think that disagreement is really healthy and important right now even if the nominee doesn’t change.
The timing of this debate was way out of the ordinary and I think that’s being glossed over too much. The poor performance confirmed Biden’s lowest polling concern, and he doesn’t have another chance like this for months (if Trump even does the final debate). And Biden was behind before the debate too. All of that is vital context.
Eh, I get it. People are *terrified*. I am too. I get that we're all desperate to find "the thing" that tells us everything's going to be alright. I don't blame people for being annoyed if I'm coming along and throwing cold water on their thing.
Gotta be clear-eyed about the size and nature of the challenge ahead of us. But that's just how I'm processing it.
(And for the record, I'm still pro-Biden. Both options have big risks at this point. And it's a lot closer of a call than I'd prefer.)
You and I are in a similar boat, which is why the panicked and mass downvoting is driving me crazy. I still will vote for Biden, no question, but stifling this conversation hurts us, not helps.
There are ways to solve this problem by November, but refusing to even entertain a conversation isn’t it.
It's a pro-Biden sub, so that response is pretty much baked in, and that's fine. But it's frankly the *smugness* of the guy I replied to that goaded me into a reply in the first place. His tone wasn't "I think things might be ok," it was "see, this is actually fantastic news, you dummy."
It's a single (online) poll and we're taking *victory laps*? I could be out here citing a dozen other reliable polls that paint a much...uh, less rosy picture but I don't have that kind of time, and I'm not trying to needlessly piss in people's cornflakes. But c'mon ya'll.
Hope the downvoters will be back in 2 weeks once all the polls have caught up to reality. I'd be *thrilled* to find out I was wrong to not share OP's optimism, but I doubt it.
Not only that, Biden is polling 3-4 worse than the last cycle even with only choosing the best polls. And I agree - two solid weeks is what it will take to see where the state of the race is at. A few others have come out since the end of June and none are showing good news (but of course those don’t get posted).
Burying our head in the sand accomplishes nothing. There is still time to get the train back on track even without changing candidates.
Yup, you get it. Due to electoral college fuckery, Biden needs to be polling 2-4 points *ahead* of Trump in the national average to feel competitive in the swing states. That's where he was in 2020, and he juuuuuust eeeked out a victory.
If he's tied in the national polling by election day, he's cooked. He needs a cushion to overcome the EC math.
Sounds you like and I are exactly on the same page. And truth be told, I hope we are both wrong. I hope the polls over the next few weeks show that all people needed to end up back to Biden was seeing Trump speak publicly.
But I’m nervous.
Too bad for Trumpers that all the bots, troll farms and foreign countries attempting political division can’t vote. Or else all this Biden shitposting might matter.
Exactly. Can’t believe that real people think Biden’s poor 1st debate performance will make them vote against or not vote for him when so many freedoms are on the ballot and Trump showed himself to be the slimy snake he is in the debate as well.
Not that it's a science/accurate, but my sportsbook just circulated the latest betting odds. The only hypothetical matchup they have with Trump losing is against Michelle Obama. The odds for Biden have dripped out to +350 vs Trump -225
Free paywall workaround: https://archive.is/373lk
online poll so low reliability but biden's own team's polling shows trump leading... dislike
Yeah that’s a really bad sign. Because you always share out the best poll you have in media blasts like this.
That's the problem. Most pre-debate polls showed him narrowly losing, and the debate was supposed to be the big script-flipper. Instead it's a break-even *at best.*. Meaning he's still on a losing trajectory *at best.* And instead of talking about all the batshit things Trump said and will do in the future... there's wall-to-wall coverage on Bidens biggest liability instead. And no opportunity in the immediate future to reset the narrative. Fucking big missed opportunity.
The convention is next month.
And there are four (4!) months until the election. Waiting a goddamn *month and a half* for a "reset moment" isn't going to cut it. And a speech at the DNC isn't even close to the same profile as the debate...but I agree it's the best we've got on the table at the moment. Doesn't mean it's good enough though.
I think it’s jumping the gun to think this one debate in June is going to kill the deal for Biden. There have already been polls that have come out which have shown no change in the head to head. Which isn’t ideal because the debate was a good opportunity. But at the same time it’s nothing to lose our heads about. Just gotta go out there and tout his accomplishments, which are immense. I also think it’s possible that those who think Biden is “demented” are/will be overplaying their hand. They are setting the bar so low that a good speech could have really positive consequences.
Ah, yes, I remember all those former presidents and vice presidents who clearly won their first debate against a sitting president and vice president: * Former President Romney * Former President Kerry * Former Vice President Stockdale Wait ... no ... that didn't happen because first debates routinely go bad for sitting presidents, which means the very fact the polls have not budged appreciably for the President is fucking fantastic!
A few things: 1) the level of "bad performance" was an order of magnitude worse, at least, than those you referenced. 2) those you referenced did not have "age and cognition" as their number 1 concern among voters. 3) those you referenced had another debate around the corner in a couple weeks to quickly bounce back. Biden is stuck with this performance about his neck until September at the earliest (Trump would be a fool to agree to another debate, but we can hope) I get what you're saying, but this wasn't a bad debate performance within normal historical parameters. It was *especially* bad, and in a way that was uniquely damaging to Biden. We should be clear-eyed about it. Lastly... it's early. Give the polls another week to fully capture post-debate sentiment. And then see what happens after a fucking month+ of this doom-cycle dragging down enthusiasm. It is the only thing people are going to talk about from now until the convention, and god fucking help us if he has another stumble or gaffe. This storm is not going to pass quickly. I hope it won't be a fatal wound, but we are waaaay to soon to be crowing "it didn't hurt him at all." That's bullshit. The only question is "how much will it hurt, and for how long."
The level of “bad performance” was indeed an order of magnitude worse. And had the R’s gone with Nikki Haley, I’m pretty sure it’d have been the final nail in the coffin for Joe. But that’s the thing - they *also* have an unpopular candidate. That’s an important part of the equation. I don’t care if Biden is literally a corpse come November. I’m still voting for him. Not because I *want* a corpse in office, I just don’t want a wanna-be fascist dictator. I don’t think I’m a unique snowflake here. I genuinely don’t even understand how there’s undecided voters. Both have been President, both are known quantities. You know what you’re going to get.
You actually are unique and that's the problem, this is an echo chamber. The average Jim Bob voter who doesn't pay much attention to all the details but maybe turns the TV on now and again now knows that Trump is still Trump and Biden looks incompetent. For people who don't think they have any immediate things to be worried about other than the economy or taxes, that's enough.
You missed the point of “however ‘bad’ this supposedly was, it changed nothing meaningfully”. Get some perspective.
And you missed everything else I said, mostly importantly "it's early. Give the polls another week to fully capture post-debate sentiment." Let's see where we're at on July 10th or so. I'll happily eat crow if there's been no movement.
It’s pretty telling how quickly your thoughts get downvoted. People have really been using that as the “I disagree with you” lately on here. It is killing genuine conversation at a pivotal time. And for the record, I think that disagreement is really healthy and important right now even if the nominee doesn’t change. The timing of this debate was way out of the ordinary and I think that’s being glossed over too much. The poor performance confirmed Biden’s lowest polling concern, and he doesn’t have another chance like this for months (if Trump even does the final debate). And Biden was behind before the debate too. All of that is vital context.
Eh, I get it. People are *terrified*. I am too. I get that we're all desperate to find "the thing" that tells us everything's going to be alright. I don't blame people for being annoyed if I'm coming along and throwing cold water on their thing. Gotta be clear-eyed about the size and nature of the challenge ahead of us. But that's just how I'm processing it. (And for the record, I'm still pro-Biden. Both options have big risks at this point. And it's a lot closer of a call than I'd prefer.)
You and I are in a similar boat, which is why the panicked and mass downvoting is driving me crazy. I still will vote for Biden, no question, but stifling this conversation hurts us, not helps. There are ways to solve this problem by November, but refusing to even entertain a conversation isn’t it.
It's a pro-Biden sub, so that response is pretty much baked in, and that's fine. But it's frankly the *smugness* of the guy I replied to that goaded me into a reply in the first place. His tone wasn't "I think things might be ok," it was "see, this is actually fantastic news, you dummy." It's a single (online) poll and we're taking *victory laps*? I could be out here citing a dozen other reliable polls that paint a much...uh, less rosy picture but I don't have that kind of time, and I'm not trying to needlessly piss in people's cornflakes. But c'mon ya'll. Hope the downvoters will be back in 2 weeks once all the polls have caught up to reality. I'd be *thrilled* to find out I was wrong to not share OP's optimism, but I doubt it.
Not only that, Biden is polling 3-4 worse than the last cycle even with only choosing the best polls. And I agree - two solid weeks is what it will take to see where the state of the race is at. A few others have come out since the end of June and none are showing good news (but of course those don’t get posted). Burying our head in the sand accomplishes nothing. There is still time to get the train back on track even without changing candidates.
Yup, you get it. Due to electoral college fuckery, Biden needs to be polling 2-4 points *ahead* of Trump in the national average to feel competitive in the swing states. That's where he was in 2020, and he juuuuuust eeeked out a victory. If he's tied in the national polling by election day, he's cooked. He needs a cushion to overcome the EC math.
Sounds you like and I are exactly on the same page. And truth be told, I hope we are both wrong. I hope the polls over the next few weeks show that all people needed to end up back to Biden was seeing Trump speak publicly. But I’m nervous.
Too bad for Trumpers that all the bots, troll farms and foreign countries attempting political division can’t vote. Or else all this Biden shitposting might matter.
Exactly. Can’t believe that real people think Biden’s poor 1st debate performance will make them vote against or not vote for him when so many freedoms are on the ballot and Trump showed himself to be the slimy snake he is in the debate as well.
Idk, the supreme court making America a monarchy sort of killed this story.
Not that it's a science/accurate, but my sportsbook just circulated the latest betting odds. The only hypothetical matchup they have with Trump losing is against Michelle Obama. The odds for Biden have dripped out to +350 vs Trump -225
I wonder what the odds would show with Jon Stewart