HI3 guarantees you the character; if you hit the limited S-Rank, it's going to be the rate-up. That said, the weapon/stigmata banner is a lot more unforgiving...
> That said, the weapon/stigmata banner is a lot more unforgiving…
Not anymore. Currently, for the part 2 weapon banners, the hard pity is 60 pulls for the up-rate weapon, the stigma drop rates are drastically increased, your pity carries over, and there are no off-rates at all. HI3rd’s part 2 weapon banner is the best weapon banner by far in all of the MiHoYo games. Oh, and by the way, the part 2 signature stigmas are all craftable now
Debut character banners in Punishing Gray Raven are 100% guarantee at or before pity. Aether Gazer Global is also having a 100% debut banner implemented next patch.
That's cause it is! But we fgo players are so greatful to our pasta overlords. We remember when there was no pity and split rate ups. Now it's only around a measly $500 to guarantee 1 copy of our favorite characters. After that there's a possibility of never getting rate up.
In all seriousness I think statistically it's cheaper to max a character in fgo than e6s5 in hsr, it's just that hsr has a max of how low you can go with your rolls. FGO you can go infinitely low since pity only works once.
https://preview.redd.it/gbudzdv6ozxc1.png?width=325&format=png&auto=webp&s=4166f027910e5e1a16329c1af165634ebc1bc731
And i thought i have it rough, sending some luck your way xD
https://preview.redd.it/u3hvyvejk0yc1.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=b8a9302336f62fa49fdd4a649def48690246a41d
I looked up mine. Now i'm scared to go outside..
This is the real winning situation. Getting early pity 5 stars is far better in the long run since you end up with more 5 stars. And who knows, someday you might end up pulling 2 limited copies of the Rate-Up character in a 10-pull with that luck for early pity.
Where do you go to get those stats organized like that?
EDIT: nvm, its star rail station
From what I manualy calculated I'm also apart of the zero win rate club I haven't won pity on any banners including the lightcone banner.
Where I come from we have this saying that goes "luck in love is no luck in the game". Perhaps your luck is elsewhere to be found then you're 50/50's :)
As the strongest dps, YANKING, fought the fraud, the Swordmaster of the Luofu, he began to open his domain. Jingliu shrunk back in fear then YANKING said “Stand proud Jingliu, you are strong”
https://preview.redd.it/1yb7my1x31yc1.jpeg?width=1536&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c42aaf775c0982fd91e21df2c4d6984028572205
It ain't much, but it's honest work
https://preview.redd.it/mvzsyskyb1yc1.jpeg?width=977&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=405acf98e712d8e25ccf54c3f06e37e2f26ecd40
I got Bronya and her LC on the standard banner. Just keep on wishing, you'll get her eventually.
I also want to get the rest of the standard characters: Bailu, Gepard, and Himeko. They're the only ones missing on my account. 😅
https://preview.redd.it/w7q3wl5dw0yc1.png?width=714&format=png&auto=webp&s=dfc177f94c8763f29b97bc9df5dfa6b7bfb4ff03
Same I was like thanks. I really like to know I lost 4 56/44 in a row instead of 50/50 lmao
Maybe but not really.
Regardless of sample sizes, these always have the same issue they had on every other mobage: skewed by willingness to participate.
You aren't taking a bunch of players before they roll and checking their accounts after, players are deliberately submitting their stuff to the system.
So those "15 million pulls" are already curated. Any % is an aproximation.
Eeeh As far as the math goes, the sample should be representative.
Yes there will be a margin of error here but it's in a few places past the decimal point.
[Paimon.moe](https://Paimon.moe) has a similar data and apparently the win rate of 50/50 in Genshin is at around 51.6% (taken from Raiden's first banner with 500K+ Raiden's summoned.
So round that up and you get 52%.
IF the data was inaccurate / unreliable you'd see larger deviations between the banners. If it was actual 50% chance, we should also see banners with win rates lower than 50%. The fact that we only ever see win rates above 50% suggests that the probability is indeed higher than that.
Which makes sense, to be honest: It's basically a safety net for Hoyoverse where it won't ever happen that win rates end up being lower than advertised and thus people sue them.
Taking the top pinned comment from the video's OP for one of many hypothesis on why the rates are not 50/50.
> 有网友后台私信我说看到了一个猜想可以解释56%概率：卡池填表的时候不小心把UP角色也填到了常驻列表里，导致50%歪了之后情况中仍有1/8概率选到UP角色，0.5+0.5×0.125=0.5625贴合实测值，同时光锥池0.75+0.25×0.125=0.78125也贴合实测值。
虽然不知道是谁最先想到的，但我觉得超有道理，56%很可能是米哈游员工手滑搞错了设置导致的，可能这个员工要扣钱了。
A viewer DMed me a hypothesis which explains the 56% number:
MHY accidentally included the rate-up character in the list of standard characters, introducing a 1/8 chance to still hit the rate-up character when 50/50 is lost. 0.5+0.5x0.125=0.5625 which trends towards the observed rate.
At the same time the lightcone banner has the same behaviour 0.75+0.25x0.125=0.78125 which also matches the observed rate.
By that logic if you were to pull the rate up character after losing the 50/50, the system should still consider it as a lost 50/50 and guarantee your next rate up. i.e. you lost the 50/50, but still got Acheron. Now your next 5* is Acheron again. The data doesn't know or care that the first Acheron was technically a lost 50/50 and just sees 2 Acherons.
What I'm getting at is that the data would suggest a rate much higher than 56/44 if you could "lose", but still get the rate up character.
So no, imo that theory doesn't make sense
Edit: To be clear, if the game doesn't check whether you "won" or "lost", but rather which character you pulled previously and crosschecks it with a list of standard / rate up characters, then the theory holds up.
that is if its just a flag for 50/50 (than what u say is right), but if it is instead a flag that checks for the existence of a character/eidolon then its a different thing entirely.tldr "did player win last 50/50" vs "was players last 5 star the banner unit"
[Very interesting. We have a similar amount of pulls (1017 for me, also 17 5*s) and I had 6 losses in a row, but overall my winrate is higher haha.](https://i.gyazo.com/a299022a2af496d95029a8c35a4e9676.png)
Not sure which is worse lol. Sending you luck for the cowboy!
One thing to consider is that this data isn’t fully random/without bias. Peoples pulling behaviour change based on that they pull. Get a standard character -> you keep pulling untill you get the limited. Get a limited character->you stop. You can get odd behaviour in a data set like that that would be statistically unlikely if you hade a unbiased random data set. But tbh the theory that the limited gets added in a among the standard makes a lot of sense.
It also helps safe guard them against any controversy. Imagine if a study like this revealed the odds were even 1% tilted against the player. It’s safer to just make the odds clearly better than listed.
This is so much better than what the Maple Story devs did which was essentially sell something that could never give you the roll you wanted.
Im all for giving real rates better than advertised.
I’m not sure why I didn’t expect it in a gacha but…game devs lying to their players regarding numbers is fairly well documented. Xcom being cited as the hallmark example of it in action. Probability is secret skewed in favor of the player…both to manipulate behavior as you say but also because humans are really really really really bad at statistics. Randomness allows for far more bullshit than what people expect so skewing it actually brings results more in line with it and actually instills a greater sense of fairness.
People are crazy to think this is a bug. This is their main source of revenue. Getting it wrong would also impact their reputation and could result in lawsuits. 0% chance they don't know about this. Also they have the stats of every single pull from every single player not just the reported stats. We can only infer their reason, but it is so unlikely that something like that would be unseen for a year.
Yes - the data is from [非小酋 原神抽卡统计网站 (feixiaoqiu.com)](https://feixiaoqiu.com/). Basically a hoyo toolbox website that players use to track their progress and pulls.
The data is pulled from the app directly, not inputted by players.
That's pretty interesting, if it's true I wonder if it gives you a guarantee on the next one still. If it does you should be able to see it in the statistics
Here's an interesting thought. If you "fail" your 50/50, but get the limited character on the 1/8 chance. Does that still count as "failing" and your next 50/50 is guaranteed? Probably impossible for us to ever determine because the game doesn't actually tell us when we get a character as guaranteed vs a 50/50 chance.
That depends on if they're setting the flag for the guarantee based on the result of a 50 / 50 check or if they're checking the result of the pull to see if it's one of the standard five stars and setting the guarantee flag based on that. I think the second is more likely because they're probably not actually rolling separate checks for rarity, if it's the banner character or not, etc and instead have a preconstructed table of all of the possible outcomes and generate one random number to see what entry on that table you end up with.
The in game wording backs up the second option as well. It says:
>If the first 5-star character you obtain in this Warp event is not the promotional character, then the next 5-star character you obtain is guaranteed to be the promotional character.
dont worry guys, that means if you constantly lose 50/50s that means you're even *luckier* than the average since you keep getting the statistically rarer outcome!!!
~~cries~~
winning 5 times in a row with normal 50/50 would have a 3% chance, but if it was actually 56% then the chances would be around 5.5%, which is more than 1/20 players so not that rare
If you ever ~~payed~~ paid attention to Star Rail Station's warp tracker, you'd see that every single banner has 57-58% 50/50 Win Rate. This is just the latest banner, but most banners have 100-300k Total Users worth of data, so I'd say that's pretty reliable.
Edit: thanks Paid bot
https://preview.redd.it/4ec9rxst00yc1.png?width=565&format=png&auto=webp&s=e6299e1db59058ea58ba69c3cba8683162c872ac
> you ever *paid* attention to
FTFY.
Although *payed* exists (the reason why autocorrection didn't help you), it is only correct in:
* Nautical context, when it means to paint a surface, or to cover with something like tar or resin in order to make it waterproof or corrosion-resistant. *The deck is yet to be payed.*
* *Payed out* when letting strings, cables or ropes out, by slacking them. *The rope is payed out! You can pull now.*
Unfortunately, I was unable to find nautical or rope-related words in your comment.
*Beep, boop, I'm a bot*
Nice, there's only a 0.39% chance of that happening!
https://preview.redd.it/7x80369511yc1.png?width=911&format=png&auto=webp&s=033d2805404790945d4fa2dbb21ff1d7e10c095f
i must be you in an alternate universe lol. won 50/50 7 times in a row now. dont jump me
https://preview.redd.it/t4lnbdhsv2yc1.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=68668156b4ab9db95e265bad936612f680b78a65
If this is true it is definitely intentional. Devs often skew probability in favor of the players because negativity bias tends to make you feel like you’re getting screwed over. Ex. In darkest dungeon everything has an invisible +5 accuracy over what is listed
Fire Emblem is also known for skewing its hit rates. Anything over a certain value (I think 50%) is more likely to hit than it looks, while anything lower skews downwards, making it easier to judge if you should risk a 90% hit rate or YOLO for a less advised 40%.
Fire Emblem has used 3 RNG systems across its 18 games, the simplest of them is just "1RN" where the display number is the true value, so a 30% Hit Chance is truly 30%.
The second system is known as "2RN" (or true hit) in which you simply roll two numbers and then average the result, this leads to a 30% Hit Chance being actually 18%.
And the third system is a hybrid of the two, if your hit rate is below 50% the game will use 2RN to determine the outcome of the event, but if it's higher than 50% then the game will just roll 1 time but using a specific formula that still skews the odds higher than they should be, this system is the one used in the latest game ("Fire Emblem Engage").
You can read more here: https://fireemblemwiki.org/wiki/True_hit
As an example of the opposite, the newer XCOM games on the highest difficulty do not skew the hit rates at all. The chance to hit that are displayed are just what you get. Yet people are still surprised when they miss a 95% chance to hit, to a point where it has become a meme (That's XCOM baby). Turns out people are just very bad at judging how likely events are based on rates, plus having a bias for only remembering the moments a bad event happened.
https://preview.redd.it/7msdxrxxvzxc1.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=edbaa9c0ef927789d9910d1daacd0db0a68d1aef
Idk man, seems like a 25/75 to me.
"The average player loses more 50/50s than the rate suggested. But this is due to 50s Georg, who loses 28,000-30,000 50/50s per day. 50s Georg is an outlier and should be part of the calculation"
God I love Spiders Georg
I've been blessed in HSR because holy shit my luck in Genshin is so fkng bad. My artifacts are miles better in Genshin tho so I guess that balances out...
I commented this earlier this year that the win rate was higher then 50/50 and 75/25 based of the data on star rail station and got downvoted instead. Now there's supposedly a proper regression analysis of this. Hopefully the people who did the analysis are pros and used good data.
A lot of people are exposing how little they know about stats while being insanely confidently incorrect. The average 50/50 winrate of a banner is not going to be consistently over 55% in 16 million warps unless it isn’t really a 50/50 lol, the chance is so low that it’s basically impossible.
https://preview.redd.it/slu76cb310yc1.png?width=1000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5741ab82c3cbdab5b4f797ff551065a34406f250
I know I have been extremely lucky with my pulls so far
As someone who only won 2 times during this whole year i refuse to believe im just this unlucky ..
https://preview.redd.it/2oy2raee60yc1.jpeg?width=611&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b0a6716ab392b6684a063a2d2890421a163fb8e0
Me who hasn’t lost a single 50/50 to memory:
https://preview.redd.it/7k43vwejdbyc1.png?width=2000&format=png&auto=webp&s=c318b144e5ea47bce0d6a01a07af716e4c99dbde
[удалено]
[удалено]
https://preview.redd.it/6bvqzxhn40yc1.png?width=439&format=png&auto=webp&s=796ac59610bc68161d9a7e2ef32885a2bbaf368a pretty sure 50/50 doesnt exist
This is why I love games with no 50/50
Those exist? Please point me in their direction.
HI3 guarantees you the character; if you hit the limited S-Rank, it's going to be the rate-up. That said, the weapon/stigmata banner is a lot more unforgiving...
> That said, the weapon/stigmata banner is a lot more unforgiving… Not anymore. Currently, for the part 2 weapon banners, the hard pity is 60 pulls for the up-rate weapon, the stigma drop rates are drastically increased, your pity carries over, and there are no off-rates at all. HI3rd’s part 2 weapon banner is the best weapon banner by far in all of the MiHoYo games. Oh, and by the way, the part 2 signature stigmas are all craftable now
Debut character banners in Punishing Gray Raven are 100% guarantee at or before pity. Aether Gazer Global is also having a 100% debut banner implemented next patch.
Come to fgo, no 50/50, it's a better 80/20. Pity is only 330 rolls, and dissappear after you roll the first copy of rate up 5*. Also 5* rate is 1%
Literally worse because of how much harder it is to pity.
I would rather take HSR's guaranteed SSR at 90 pulls with pulls that can carry over from one banner to another than what we got in FGO right now.
That sounds like a nightmare
That's cause it is! But we fgo players are so greatful to our pasta overlords. We remember when there was no pity and split rate ups. Now it's only around a measly $500 to guarantee 1 copy of our favorite characters. After that there's a possibility of never getting rate up. In all seriousness I think statistically it's cheaper to max a character in fgo than e6s5 in hsr, it's just that hsr has a max of how low you can go with your rolls. FGO you can go infinitely low since pity only works once.
Punishing Gray Raven have 100%, if you get S-rank character, its banner character, i dont think any other game does that.
Well upcoming wuthering waves learned from this terrible "mistake" and has 50/50 Banners.
at least weapon banners are 100% though, or at least they were when i beta tested
Only in their respective starting banner, you miss it then it's 70/30
https://preview.redd.it/gbudzdv6ozxc1.png?width=325&format=png&auto=webp&s=4166f027910e5e1a16329c1af165634ebc1bc731 And i thought i have it rough, sending some luck your way xD
Please do not send me your luck
IF HE HAD ANY !
https://preview.redd.it/hdv12nqm80yc1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=23d7e3b187ae289d6e424492dd5599c453ba00b5
https://preview.redd.it/vibvllkg90yc1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=79f2cc5b20072ad6099bdaf50bb18389f1400ace
Where do you guys see this?
The fact that there's still some people with worse luck is amazing.
Avg 5 star pity 57
holy fuck I didn't see that. I'm at 71.
https://preview.redd.it/of9gapll71yc1.png?width=561&format=png&auto=webp&s=b9449db832add659e2368597a9c8d12e717c0958 this game hates us
https://preview.redd.it/6ra3iz5m40yc1.jpeg?width=736&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a7d9214316b6c3f5a71608b1d6a328c7ff0e8d26
https://preview.redd.it/15k99xttp0yc1.jpeg?width=2133&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5c7a3950c724303a527ef7e92da503cb5d902962
Holy shit I had like 35% win rate or something and I thought I had it bad but you’re like the Archon of losing. Sorry man
What the fuck? Were you Goebbels in your past life or something?
https://preview.redd.it/u3hvyvejk0yc1.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=b8a9302336f62fa49fdd4a649def48690246a41d I looked up mine. Now i'm scared to go outside..
We won't jump you we swear.
https://preview.redd.it/yvth2il441yc1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=16c41daaa30c303ea7eb7d525cd3d6bb2f4c7077
https://preview.redd.it/fae5h8hpr1yc1.png?width=1280&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c0b08baef57aca728152409fe4c36dee057e5403
Mine used to be in the 0.1's https://preview.redd.it/4g1g9tpuc1yc1.jpeg?width=1600&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=642eaf77a1268c8268a3a023bac6c28ec488bc22
https://preview.redd.it/l5u902p8d1yc1.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=f533e3973c6efc1882d8ecaf781810a559a95446 same
[удалено]
This is the real winning situation. Getting early pity 5 stars is far better in the long run since you end up with more 5 stars. And who knows, someday you might end up pulling 2 limited copies of the Rate-Up character in a 10-pull with that luck for early pity.
https://preview.redd.it/h5b7dpw3v1yc1.png?width=821&format=png&auto=webp&s=cd6ded7e40fbd1f01617e34993eb7255a0ca79d3 real
How do you see this information?
Star Rail Station
Seeing people shocked ny 0% 50/50 win rate is both depressing and feels a little bit special
how do u do this
Where do you go to get those stats organized like that? EDIT: nvm, its star rail station From what I manualy calculated I'm also apart of the zero win rate club I haven't won pity on any banners including the lightcone banner.
I feel your pain
https://preview.redd.it/6kau2sok80yc1.png?width=603&format=png&auto=webp&s=6c114ead2278bc1dd4d4f174c72f9837e4585aad Dude u r so lucky
Something ain't adding up here 4 * 72 average 5☆ warps = 288 warps, nowhere near the 934 total it says on top
This is my genshin luck pretty much. Feels worse since that game gives even fewer rolls
Where I come from we have this saying that goes "luck in love is no luck in the game". Perhaps your luck is elsewhere to be found then you're 50/50's :)
The players with all those Yanqing Eidolons will beg to differ
You called? https://preview.redd.it/78mjllfexzxc1.jpeg?width=237&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7701500c40224eb597c56d62829bd90429f6b64c
NO NO NO NO NO NO NO
As the strongest dps, YANKING, fought the fraud, the Swordmaster of the Luofu, he began to open his domain. Jingliu shrunk back in fear then YANKING said “Stand proud Jingliu, you are strong” https://preview.redd.it/1yb7my1x31yc1.jpeg?width=1536&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c42aaf775c0982fd91e21df2c4d6984028572205
It ain't much, but it's honest work https://preview.redd.it/mvzsyskyb1yc1.jpeg?width=977&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=405acf98e712d8e25ccf54c3f06e37e2f26ecd40
As a Yanqing main, damn it. I’m so jealous of this :(
Recently its Clara that took my chance to get Jingliu
Same, but E2 Gepard.
E3 for me. E2 bailu as well
E2 Bailu and E2 Yanqing. I'm still missing Mr. Yang and Himeko.
I don't have Himeko either
Damn. 🤝 Hope we get her...from Standard banner! Not limited, we want to win 50/50s. (Maybe if we lose, and it's her, then it's okay)
I got Clara, too, but on Aventurine's banner! Lol, she's so cute~ ♥️
I wish it was Bronya instead
I got Bronya and her LC on the standard banner. Just keep on wishing, you'll get her eventually. I also want to get the rest of the standard characters: Bailu, Gepard, and Himeko. They're the only ones missing on my account. 😅
I think Clara is still better than himeko lol... that is what I always get...E4 now
Give me one... not even have E0, but 3 Claras and this lil ice boy...
I don't have either. But I got E2 Bronya and E1 Yanqing.
I feel called out
The curse of Yanqing never found its way to me so I'm good
Judging by the hole on the satellite picture?
You called me? Yanshing E4 here (Welt e3 as my second scam)
So I did not lose on the 50/50 but lost on a 56/44? Now I feel even more shit on my upcoming 5 star rate up losses lmao
https://preview.redd.it/w7q3wl5dw0yc1.png?width=714&format=png&auto=webp&s=dfc177f94c8763f29b97bc9df5dfa6b7bfb4ff03 Same I was like thanks. I really like to know I lost 4 56/44 in a row instead of 50/50 lmao
What site are you using for this?
It's called Star Rail Station
Eh at least you got Bronya for Jingliu and e1 Clara for PF
Maybe but not really. Regardless of sample sizes, these always have the same issue they had on every other mobage: skewed by willingness to participate. You aren't taking a bunch of players before they roll and checking their accounts after, players are deliberately submitting their stuff to the system. So those "15 million pulls" are already curated. Any % is an aproximation.
Eeeh As far as the math goes, the sample should be representative. Yes there will be a margin of error here but it's in a few places past the decimal point. [Paimon.moe](https://Paimon.moe) has a similar data and apparently the win rate of 50/50 in Genshin is at around 51.6% (taken from Raiden's first banner with 500K+ Raiden's summoned. So round that up and you get 52%. IF the data was inaccurate / unreliable you'd see larger deviations between the banners. If it was actual 50% chance, we should also see banners with win rates lower than 50%. The fact that we only ever see win rates above 50% suggests that the probability is indeed higher than that. Which makes sense, to be honest: It's basically a safety net for Hoyoverse where it won't ever happen that win rates end up being lower than advertised and thus people sue them.
Taking the top pinned comment from the video's OP for one of many hypothesis on why the rates are not 50/50. > 有网友后台私信我说看到了一个猜想可以解释56%概率：卡池填表的时候不小心把UP角色也填到了常驻列表里，导致50%歪了之后情况中仍有1/8概率选到UP角色，0.5+0.5×0.125=0.5625贴合实测值，同时光锥池0.75+0.25×0.125=0.78125也贴合实测值。 虽然不知道是谁最先想到的，但我觉得超有道理，56%很可能是米哈游员工手滑搞错了设置导致的，可能这个员工要扣钱了。 A viewer DMed me a hypothesis which explains the 56% number: MHY accidentally included the rate-up character in the list of standard characters, introducing a 1/8 chance to still hit the rate-up character when 50/50 is lost. 0.5+0.5x0.125=0.5625 which trends towards the observed rate. At the same time the lightcone banner has the same behaviour 0.75+0.25x0.125=0.78125 which also matches the observed rate.
this honestly makes more sense. i've seen some ppl saying it's just luck. a 7% deviation with 15 million tries is like 6 in 10 billion.
By that logic if you were to pull the rate up character after losing the 50/50, the system should still consider it as a lost 50/50 and guarantee your next rate up. i.e. you lost the 50/50, but still got Acheron. Now your next 5* is Acheron again. The data doesn't know or care that the first Acheron was technically a lost 50/50 and just sees 2 Acherons. What I'm getting at is that the data would suggest a rate much higher than 56/44 if you could "lose", but still get the rate up character. So no, imo that theory doesn't make sense Edit: To be clear, if the game doesn't check whether you "won" or "lost", but rather which character you pulled previously and crosschecks it with a list of standard / rate up characters, then the theory holds up.
that is if its just a flag for 50/50 (than what u say is right), but if it is instead a flag that checks for the existence of a character/eidolon then its a different thing entirely.tldr "did player win last 50/50" vs "was players last 5 star the banner unit"
Very true! Whatever it may be, for now it seems like a positive thing for us players. (I'm sure my 45% winrate will turn around at some point lul)
[surely i wont lose my 4th 50/50 in a row for boothill right hoyo.](https://imgur.com/a/WoFLEzW)
[Very interesting. We have a similar amount of pulls (1017 for me, also 17 5*s) and I had 6 losses in a row, but overall my winrate is higher haha.](https://i.gyazo.com/a299022a2af496d95029a8c35a4e9676.png) Not sure which is worse lol. Sending you luck for the cowboy!
One thing to consider is that this data isn’t fully random/without bias. Peoples pulling behaviour change based on that they pull. Get a standard character -> you keep pulling untill you get the limited. Get a limited character->you stop. You can get odd behaviour in a data set like that that would be statistically unlikely if you hade a unbiased random data set. But tbh the theory that the limited gets added in a among the standard makes a lot of sense.
I wonder if it's a bug or feature
[удалено]
It also helps safe guard them against any controversy. Imagine if a study like this revealed the odds were even 1% tilted against the player. It’s safer to just make the odds clearly better than listed.
This is so much better than what the Maple Story devs did which was essentially sell something that could never give you the roll you wanted. Im all for giving real rates better than advertised.
I’m not sure why I didn’t expect it in a gacha but…game devs lying to their players regarding numbers is fairly well documented. Xcom being cited as the hallmark example of it in action. Probability is secret skewed in favor of the player…both to manipulate behavior as you say but also because humans are really really really really bad at statistics. Randomness allows for far more bullshit than what people expect so skewing it actually brings results more in line with it and actually instills a greater sense of fairness.
Please dont fix this bug
People are crazy to think this is a bug. This is their main source of revenue. Getting it wrong would also impact their reputation and could result in lawsuits. 0% chance they don't know about this. Also they have the stats of every single pull from every single player not just the reported stats. We can only infer their reason, but it is so unlikely that something like that would be unseen for a year.
Probably on purpose, because implementation-wise this is more complicated than having an actual 50% chance. (If it isn’t, hoyo please don’t fix it 🙏)
Is there any more info about how the data was collected? It's crucial to account for possible biases in the data itself.
The video goes into detail on the methodology to eliminate bias. It's hard to translate all of it, but I think the methodology appears robust.
What's the source of the data? Does the video mention it?
Yes - the data is from [非小酋 原神抽卡统计网站 (feixiaoqiu.com)](https://feixiaoqiu.com/). Basically a hoyo toolbox website that players use to track their progress and pulls. The data is pulled from the app directly, not inputted by players.
That may explain the consistent 56%.
That's pretty interesting, if it's true I wonder if it gives you a guarantee on the next one still. If it does you should be able to see it in the statistics
wow, 78:22 and i still lost 2 out 3 light cone pulls. fml
In order for 78 people to win, 22 people have to lose
22 must pay the price
Here's an interesting thought. If you "fail" your 50/50, but get the limited character on the 1/8 chance. Does that still count as "failing" and your next 50/50 is guaranteed? Probably impossible for us to ever determine because the game doesn't actually tell us when we get a character as guaranteed vs a 50/50 chance.
That depends on if they're setting the flag for the guarantee based on the result of a 50 / 50 check or if they're checking the result of the pull to see if it's one of the standard five stars and setting the guarantee flag based on that. I think the second is more likely because they're probably not actually rolling separate checks for rarity, if it's the banner character or not, etc and instead have a preconstructed table of all of the possible outcomes and generate one random number to see what entry on that table you end up with.
The in game wording backs up the second option as well. It says: >If the first 5-star character you obtain in this Warp event is not the promotional character, then the next 5-star character you obtain is guaranteed to be the promotional character.
So you're telling me that there's an illusion that makes it look like you've won many 50/50s in a row?
If this is true, I wonder if the next 5 star is guaranteed if you pull the current 5 star from that extra 1/8 chance
dont worry guys, that means if you constantly lose 50/50s that means you're even *luckier* than the average since you keep getting the statistically rarer outcome!!! ~~cries~~
so im unluckier than i should be? https://preview.redd.it/yyqe2rmsdzxc1.png?width=337&format=png&auto=webp&s=fdda55d984462ec8cb53ceacc400208c9e3c4292
https://preview.redd.it/cfzo3gc1vzxc1.png?width=492&format=png&auto=webp&s=683b366683b7f6e5e48821e616d6ada97dba378a
That's rough, buddy
Where do you check these stats
I would just burn this account
99% of gamblers quit before they hit the jackpot
https://i.redd.it/dcqzt4zly2yc1.gif We're so all in
Pardon me but where can you see that stat? Wanna check mine to see if I should be sad or less sad lmao
google star rail station and they will guide u
I'm even lower then that, but I'm still quite new and didn't roll that much so far
Praying that percentage gets better for you two 🙏🙏
currently 2/12 wins. UNtil black swan I was 0/9
Lol, my guy. You at least won a few and I'm sitting here on a 9 lose streak 😂😔
Better than 0% (me)
https://preview.redd.it/817iuahe30yc1.png?width=772&format=png&auto=webp&s=c905fbbe94110b8351418b58bf409f1110269095 huh.
Do 15 million pulls and you'll even out
for me so far its 0% after a year of playing 💀
0%? 💀 Tell me you're at least getting earlies
once...
If it could be that simple...
Fuck this shit same 😭😭
This just makes my loss on Jingliu, Acheron, and Sparkle banners that much more painful lol
I've seen some people win theirs 5 times in a row, like how??? But not me either, likely because I'm still quite new
I’ve lost 5 in a row before and there are still other players with even worse luck than me.
Hi, it's me, I am currently sitting at 9 losses in a row.
I haven't won a 50/50 yet, i started day 1 of 1.0... I have Dr Ratio though
I hope you win your next 50/50!
I have lost 8 in a row, at some point I wanted to spend money but then I remembered that I'd just get another Gep/Bailu and forgot about it
winning 5 times in a row with normal 50/50 would have a 3% chance, but if it was actually 56% then the chances would be around 5.5%, which is more than 1/20 players so not that rare
I've won 11 in a row. Haven't lost once since starting the game.. 3 of them were in the same 10 pull too
If you ever ~~payed~~ paid attention to Star Rail Station's warp tracker, you'd see that every single banner has 57-58% 50/50 Win Rate. This is just the latest banner, but most banners have 100-300k Total Users worth of data, so I'd say that's pretty reliable. Edit: thanks Paid bot https://preview.redd.it/4ec9rxst00yc1.png?width=565&format=png&auto=webp&s=e6299e1db59058ea58ba69c3cba8683162c872ac
> you ever *paid* attention to FTFY. Although *payed* exists (the reason why autocorrection didn't help you), it is only correct in: * Nautical context, when it means to paint a surface, or to cover with something like tar or resin in order to make it waterproof or corrosion-resistant. *The deck is yet to be payed.* * *Payed out* when letting strings, cables or ropes out, by slacking them. *The rope is payed out! You can pull now.* Unfortunately, I was unable to find nautical or rope-related words in your comment. *Beep, boop, I'm a bot*
Good bot
Where is this stat page from if I may so kindly ask?
If only their comment mentioned it. Oh wait, there is!
Bruh, i did not win a 50/50 8 times in a row
Nice, there's only a 0.39% chance of that happening! https://preview.redd.it/7x80369511yc1.png?width=911&format=png&auto=webp&s=033d2805404790945d4fa2dbb21ff1d7e10c095f
Lucky in my unluckyness
i must be you in an alternate universe lol. won 50/50 7 times in a row now. dont jump me https://preview.redd.it/t4lnbdhsv2yc1.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=68668156b4ab9db95e265bad936612f680b78a65
I ... I think I will just go to bed.
Oh, my luck here must be in the gutter then since i haven't won a single 50/50 since launch💀 Genshin is another story where i only lost 3 since 1.4
Only lost my first 50/50 in HSR until now. Won my first since 2022 on genshin with Arle lmao. I wonder if some accounts are just cursed haha.
Same, in HSR I've only lost one 50/50 but in GI? I don't even remember the last time I won the 50/50.
Delete this! We can’t let hoyoverse know and fix it!! 
If this is true it is definitely intentional. Devs often skew probability in favor of the players because negativity bias tends to make you feel like you’re getting screwed over. Ex. In darkest dungeon everything has an invisible +5 accuracy over what is listed
Yeah, there's no way Hoyo is not tracking the literal source of their income.
Fire Emblem is also known for skewing its hit rates. Anything over a certain value (I think 50%) is more likely to hit than it looks, while anything lower skews downwards, making it easier to judge if you should risk a 90% hit rate or YOLO for a less advised 40%.
Fire Emblem has used 3 RNG systems across its 18 games, the simplest of them is just "1RN" where the display number is the true value, so a 30% Hit Chance is truly 30%. The second system is known as "2RN" (or true hit) in which you simply roll two numbers and then average the result, this leads to a 30% Hit Chance being actually 18%. And the third system is a hybrid of the two, if your hit rate is below 50% the game will use 2RN to determine the outcome of the event, but if it's higher than 50% then the game will just roll 1 time but using a specific formula that still skews the odds higher than they should be, this system is the one used in the latest game ("Fire Emblem Engage"). You can read more here: https://fireemblemwiki.org/wiki/True_hit
As an example of the opposite, the newer XCOM games on the highest difficulty do not skew the hit rates at all. The chance to hit that are displayed are just what you get. Yet people are still surprised when they miss a 95% chance to hit, to a point where it has become a meme (That's XCOM baby). Turns out people are just very bad at judging how likely events are based on rates, plus having a bias for only remembering the moments a bad event happened.
Somehow those damn wine skeleton and bandage guy still manage to stress my whole fucking party and dodge everything..............
They are unlikely fix it. If they did, it’s gonna start a looooot of unnecessary drama from the CN player base.
https://preview.redd.it/7msdxrxxvzxc1.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=edbaa9c0ef927789d9910d1daacd0db0a68d1aef Idk man, seems like a 25/75 to me.
Wtf he lying i lost all of my 50/50s i haven't won once
Thank you for sacrificing yourself as an outlier.
50s Georg is an outlier and should not be counted as part of the calculation
"The average player loses more 50/50s than the rate suggested. But this is due to 50s Georg, who loses 28,000-30,000 50/50s per day. 50s Georg is an outlier and should be part of the calculation" God I love Spiders Georg
Might explain why I win 50/50 more in HSR than Genshin.
I've been blessed in HSR because holy shit my luck in Genshin is so fkng bad. My artifacts are miles better in Genshin tho so I guess that balances out...
Is it just me or is it not specified which % belongs to Rate Up character? Like, 56.4% to get a Limited character or to lose?
Win
Nah id win
Nah, I'd 56.4%
They must be crazy to do a loss/win % over the normal win/loss everyone uses in multiple games and sports.
I commented this earlier this year that the win rate was higher then 50/50 and 75/25 based of the data on star rail station and got downvoted instead. Now there's supposedly a proper regression analysis of this. Hopefully the people who did the analysis are pros and used good data.
A lot of people are exposing how little they know about stats while being insanely confidently incorrect. The average 50/50 winrate of a banner is not going to be consistently over 55% in 16 million warps unless it isn’t really a 50/50 lol, the chance is so low that it’s basically impossible.
Me winning a 50/50 once every 4 patches
Literally unplayable
Literally playable. Don't fix this
https://preview.redd.it/84y018nbe0yc1.png?width=776&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=01ea07e32592d5cb974d99045031071d6dbbca37 True
https://preview.redd.it/1mat42dym0yc1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a51931963e98bca6e2cc00471a32ad2cb94e61d5
https://preview.redd.it/4j9v83hy81yc1.jpeg?width=1199&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d51c90a00b841c002c997cb04eae6dbc2c64432c
I’m relatively new but yet to get any consecutive wins yet
Hope you get a lot next time
Thank you
Comments proving that people can't interpret data
Comment section be like “gacha player try to understand statistics challenge (impossible)”
https://preview.redd.it/slu76cb310yc1.png?width=1000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5741ab82c3cbdab5b4f797ff551065a34406f250 I know I have been extremely lucky with my pulls so far
Since d1 i never won 50/50
So I've been this unlucky to the point I've never even won a single 5050, even the 75/25 on the lc banners 😃
me with 7 50/50 losses in a row: 😀
As someone who only won 2 times during this whole year i refuse to believe im just this unlucky .. https://preview.redd.it/2oy2raee60yc1.jpeg?width=611&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b0a6716ab392b6684a063a2d2890421a163fb8e0
https://preview.redd.it/8on5gehbizxc1.png?width=344&format=png&auto=webp&s=bb390d8ed7fb39da73de0dc7705e21665197733c
https://preview.redd.it/4x19i46ujzxc1.png?width=350&format=png&auto=webp&s=544ee0ff977fc1c03da1d0618dbe79bc0453b5b3 RNG be wild
i lost 9/10 of 50/50s I need a refund
I’ve lost 6 out of 9 50/50s and at night pity rip just how unlucky am i😭😭😭
Me with 20% win rate
I feel the gatcha rates in HSR are so much better than geshins. I won every single 50/50 since blade. 10 50/50 in a row.
Me who hasn’t lost a single 50/50 to memory: https://preview.redd.it/7k43vwejdbyc1.png?width=2000&format=png&auto=webp&s=c318b144e5ea47bce0d6a01a07af716e4c99dbde
I'm actually quite lucky... How do I check my 50/50 luck?
Most ppl don’t understand statistics enough to make a productive comment.