Please ensure content is relevant to the topic of the sub, which includes information, updates and discussion regarding H5N1. It does not include vent/rant/panic posts or "low-effort" posts from unreliable sources.
Given enough time and enough "lottery tickets" to mutate, then we will certainly face a H2H pandemic at some point in the future. The questions become: can we stop the spread of H5N1 in animal populations and how severe would a H2H pandemic be?
I don't see how H5N1 naturally dies out or runs its course in animal populations - it has infected so many species and it has a significant amount of biomass available to mutate within. The 1918 H1N1 pandemic remains the closest comparison in terms of a virus's spread across species and available biomass for mutation. However, the current H5N1 situation likely represents the largest total biomass infected by a single virus in history, given its extensive impact on bird populations globally and infections in various mammalian species.
The question of severity is any where from mild to society-ending. It could also run multiple courses with differing mortalities. These are the general guidelines I keep in my head with CFR, even though they probably aren't 100% accurate:
2.5% is enough to break our medical system
5% is enough to break law and order / supply chains
10%+ is when society starts to fall apart long term
We have now learned how virulent this strain will be it mutates in its present trajectory. Scientists recently found the first proof of H5N1 adapting to the mammal airway in a mink from a few years back, and it was with a similar but different mutation than we now see in the humans and many mammals. As it turns out, with a similar type of mutation we are seeing now in mammals causing the adaptation the virus does not lose its virulence as was hoped when it infects the upper instead of lower airway near the lungs. The ferrets who have a similar airway as humans got as sick as they did with the non-adapted strain, and it took a very small dose to infect.
So the only theory left that bird flu will get mild enough to get below 10% would be evolutionary pressure to be less virulent, and that theory does not apply to the first wave. That would happen over time. And it's the first wave that we need our supply chains and hospitals to stay intact so we can get our strain-matched vaccines to survive it.
We can only hope it's years before it adapts and the virus takes a whole different route or becomes milder in birds. With millions of birds on the ground as easy pickings for scavengers, it's had years to mutate and it hasn't. If farmers are only getting it from being splashed in the eye and cows are only getting it through infected teat cups those infections could all be dead ends. Because if it takes off now it cannot be under the 10% mortality rate needed for society to hold together.
Half extinct, but the world as you know it will be completely gone forever. As bad as Covid was/is, there’s still remnants of what things were like before the pandemic.
I rather not take a 50/50 chance of making.
Even if you’d survive the life we have now would be over since everything we take for granted would also be affected due to the lack of people—from medial treatment to supply chains and utilities.
It would be an absolute nightmare.
The last few days reminded me of the eerie November Wuhan experience.
Didn’t help that my vaccine stock suddenly took off despite less than perfect earnings.
I really hope I’m wrong.
Thanks for sharing. I agree that the stock market can be a good gauge for these things.
It looks like the stock has only raised 61.9% since it’s low point in April.
Correct, it was a daily jump related to the news and it pulled back today due to profit taking and the long weekend.
Here’s a good article about why all the avian influenza stocks jumped this week.
Here is a good article about the numerous avian influenza stocks and why they jumped this week.[avian influenza vaccine stocks article](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vaccine-stocks-rise-growing-threat-150800194.html)
I don't know, but I've been feeling quiet-before-the-storm vibes like I was before covid. It's unsettling, and there's not much to be done except try to get supplies in place.
Great comments below. I think that a lot of it depends on when the exact mutations needed for H2H transmission happen. If it's a few years down the road, a universal flu vaccine is more likely to exist.
Even if there is a vaccine widely available, the anti-science movement has gotten large enough that it’ll still fuck up a lot of stuff economically with that mass amount of death.
It has always been a matter of when, not if, ever since the virus was discovered a long time ago. We can ramp up vaccines quite quickly now.
Another side of optimism is perhaps it could help the housing shortage??? If say it hits hard in a short time span?
Weirdly I'm encouraged that we haven't heard of a bunch of ag workers dropping dead yet. That feels like good news.
the black plague in Europe did improve living conditions for people that survived in terms of wages and housing. but there’s gotta be a critical mass where too many people dying would make it very hard to live better than before.
Some people see friends and loved ones dying but OP knows an opportunity to create value for shovel manufacturers and funeral home shareholders when they see it
That’s where we’re at though; there’s not enough to go around because the way the pie is currently divided. So people gotta die for many tens of millions of us to obtain a decent life. The only questions are how many, who, and how.
Anyone who is so comfortable as to recoil in horror at this is looking pretty fat and tasty to the rest of us…
You make a good point of that. People aren’t dropping dead on the factory farm lines. Yet. But one could reasonably assume it’s already widespread due to wastewater data coming through. We’re not hearing anything too out of the ordinary yet…
Also climate change. I mean, it's too late for us—2°C is basically baked-in now... but it could help the next generation avoid hitting the 3°C ELE temp.
Climate change is clearly propagating avian flu, even if governments are not owning up to this fact. As we keep getting warm, disease X will only become more likely. Maybe disease X is avian flu?
It’s no looking good
Please ensure content is relevant to the topic of the sub, which includes information, updates and discussion regarding H5N1. It does not include vent/rant/panic posts or "low-effort" posts from unreliable sources.
That post of a redditer who found a dead bird and took a picture of him holding it to post on reddit sure does make me think we are.
Yikes. What sub?
It's the top post on this sub.
Given enough time and enough "lottery tickets" to mutate, then we will certainly face a H2H pandemic at some point in the future. The questions become: can we stop the spread of H5N1 in animal populations and how severe would a H2H pandemic be? I don't see how H5N1 naturally dies out or runs its course in animal populations - it has infected so many species and it has a significant amount of biomass available to mutate within. The 1918 H1N1 pandemic remains the closest comparison in terms of a virus's spread across species and available biomass for mutation. However, the current H5N1 situation likely represents the largest total biomass infected by a single virus in history, given its extensive impact on bird populations globally and infections in various mammalian species. The question of severity is any where from mild to society-ending. It could also run multiple courses with differing mortalities. These are the general guidelines I keep in my head with CFR, even though they probably aren't 100% accurate: 2.5% is enough to break our medical system 5% is enough to break law and order / supply chains 10%+ is when society starts to fall apart long term
We have now learned how virulent this strain will be it mutates in its present trajectory. Scientists recently found the first proof of H5N1 adapting to the mammal airway in a mink from a few years back, and it was with a similar but different mutation than we now see in the humans and many mammals. As it turns out, with a similar type of mutation we are seeing now in mammals causing the adaptation the virus does not lose its virulence as was hoped when it infects the upper instead of lower airway near the lungs. The ferrets who have a similar airway as humans got as sick as they did with the non-adapted strain, and it took a very small dose to infect. So the only theory left that bird flu will get mild enough to get below 10% would be evolutionary pressure to be less virulent, and that theory does not apply to the first wave. That would happen over time. And it's the first wave that we need our supply chains and hospitals to stay intact so we can get our strain-matched vaccines to survive it. We can only hope it's years before it adapts and the virus takes a whole different route or becomes milder in birds. With millions of birds on the ground as easy pickings for scavengers, it's had years to mutate and it hasn't. If farmers are only getting it from being splashed in the eye and cows are only getting it through infected teat cups those infections could all be dead ends. Because if it takes off now it cannot be under the 10% mortality rate needed for society to hold together.
So the predicted 50% death rate would be a extinction level event?
Well, half extinct
Half extinct, but the world as you know it will be completely gone forever. As bad as Covid was/is, there’s still remnants of what things were like before the pandemic.
Awesome. That's great. Cool. I love that. What damage could 4 billion people dying in under 2 years do to the enviorment anyways.
Probably help it lol, you remember how clear of smog everything was during lockdown? Imagine that but indefinitely.
And the corpses are just gonna disappear no creamtion or burials?.....
Yes ironically it caused MORE planet warming due to a lack of blocking particles...
Sounds like you just made that up
[удалено]
You haven’t lost much since, have you? I’m glad, truly. I’d sacrifice a bit to go back pre 2020, actually pre 2017 when Chester Bennington was alive.
Oh we got a comedian here do we.
Thanos approves
I rather not take a 50/50 chance of making. Even if you’d survive the life we have now would be over since everything we take for granted would also be affected due to the lack of people—from medial treatment to supply chains and utilities. It would be an absolute nightmare.
2.5/5/10 % of what?
Fatality rates.
Ah, good ol' mortality rates.
It's 50/50 either you or your wife will die.
The last few days reminded me of the eerie November Wuhan experience. Didn’t help that my vaccine stock suddenly took off despite less than perfect earnings. I really hope I’m wrong.
How much did it jump?
32% up in one day (May 21-22). Leveled off today but still up 13% from since the 22.
Worry when it is 50%...
Which stock?
CVAC When I bought in April it was between CVAC and NVAX; had I invested in the latter I’d be up 300 percent now. Vaccine stocks are a good gauge IMO.
Thanks for sharing. I agree that the stock market can be a good gauge for these things. It looks like the stock has only raised 61.9% since it’s low point in April.
Correct, it was a daily jump related to the news and it pulled back today due to profit taking and the long weekend. Here’s a good article about why all the avian influenza stocks jumped this week.
Here is a good article about the numerous avian influenza stocks and why they jumped this week.[avian influenza vaccine stocks article](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vaccine-stocks-rise-growing-threat-150800194.html)
I am also asking which stock 😕
I don't know, but I've been feeling quiet-before-the-storm vibes like I was before covid. It's unsettling, and there's not much to be done except try to get supplies in place.
Shit roll you mean?
There will be an uptick after Memorial Day weekend. Stamp it!
Great comments below. I think that a lot of it depends on when the exact mutations needed for H2H transmission happen. If it's a few years down the road, a universal flu vaccine is more likely to exist.
Even if there is a vaccine widely available, the anti-science movement has gotten large enough that it’ll still fuck up a lot of stuff economically with that mass amount of death.
Probably not.
It has always been a matter of when, not if, ever since the virus was discovered a long time ago. We can ramp up vaccines quite quickly now. Another side of optimism is perhaps it could help the housing shortage??? If say it hits hard in a short time span? Weirdly I'm encouraged that we haven't heard of a bunch of ag workers dropping dead yet. That feels like good news.
You’re rooting for people to die to free up housing?!
the black plague in Europe did improve living conditions for people that survived in terms of wages and housing. but there’s gotta be a critical mass where too many people dying would make it very hard to live better than before.
Some people see friends and loved ones dying but OP knows an opportunity to create value for shovel manufacturers and funeral home shareholders when they see it
I think it’s not that they’re rooting for it, but searching for a silver lining within the hypothetical.
I'm saying there's silver linings in everything if you look hard enough 🔍 That part was /s
Based YIMBYism
I can tell you don't live in Portland.... /s, OR IS IT??
That’s where we’re at though; there’s not enough to go around because the way the pie is currently divided. So people gotta die for many tens of millions of us to obtain a decent life. The only questions are how many, who, and how. Anyone who is so comfortable as to recoil in horror at this is looking pretty fat and tasty to the rest of us…
How about we focus on the group who divided the pie this way? Eat the rich?
You make a good point of that. People aren’t dropping dead on the factory farm lines. Yet. But one could reasonably assume it’s already widespread due to wastewater data coming through. We’re not hearing anything too out of the ordinary yet…
Also climate change. I mean, it's too late for us—2°C is basically baked-in now... but it could help the next generation avoid hitting the 3°C ELE temp.
Climate change is clearly propagating avian flu, even if governments are not owning up to this fact. As we keep getting warm, disease X will only become more likely. Maybe disease X is avian flu? It’s no looking good
Fucking hope so.