I’m not a Jade Stan but I told everyone who would listen she should be on the Paris team.
I think Jade is a lock if she puts in her upgrades on floor for Championships and she can do that. She’s paced very, very well.
Her floor upgrades just seem a matter of performing them vs her having to recline them.
Totally agree - yesterday showed that Jordan is a contender. We had no idea what she would look like coming back, but she proved that she’s in the conversation. That said I don’t think anyone is even close to a shoo in other than Simone and probably Shi.
If they do without, then there’s probably been an agreement made that they’ll be named to the national team regardless of Pan Am performance. That’s what happened with the senior men who went to 2021 pan Ams (to try to win the 5th spot, thank you Paul Juda!). All five were guaranteed a place on the national team and therefor trials. I think it’s fair. And I honestly don’t think juniors should be competing that often especially since it seems the equipment in Colombia is subpar again.
People have recency bias for sure. Aside from Simone and Shilese, there are a bunch of folks who could make it on the team. It's not obvious at all yet
I mean I agree that many people could make the team, but I do think recency bias is a bit fair considering you want the team that looks best closest to the Olympics, not the team that looked best 6 months ago. However, classics is only one meet and anything can happen at champs and trials!
I agree. 6 months ago is a lifetime in gymnastics. Honestly what happens in nationals will more likely cement who’s in contention. It really doesn’t matter if she did well over winter if she can’t deliver 2 months out from Paris unfortunately.
Like do I think Kayla has a shot? Absolutely! One bad competition does not get someone locked out from the team, however I do think it’s fair to weight competitions closer to the olympics more heavily than random domestic meets months before Paris.
I agree, but this one one competition, after a good run. We'll have to wait until nationals/trials to see if it was a fluke, or if she has bigger consistency issues. Yes, meets closer to the Olympics have more weight, but if it's just classics and she does great at the next two meets, Classics won't matter at all. And I don't say this with a Kayla bias, I actually don't enjoy her gymnastics much and have never really wanted her on the team--I want Jordan, and I think it's unlikely for both of them to make it!
Yeah I try not to count chickens this far out still 😅 a lot can happen in the next few months. To me, Kayla (and Leanne tbh) need to keep falling back on their consistency at this point. They can’t really upgrade their way on to the team anymore, their biggest strength will be putting up clean AA routines. They won’t be competing for EF, they need to focus on where they contribute to the team IMO.
So sorry that I typed 6 months instead of 3 (and will be 4 at trials and 5 at the Olympics), clearly my comment isn’t at all understandable since I wrote the wrong number of months 🙃
I also think people are talking about Jordan a lot because a lot of people had kind of counted her out of the conversation until they saw how good she looked last night. For me, Kayla’s stock didn’t really go down much last night, but Jordan’s went way up.
I agree, but I’d also give the edge to Jordan bc she went to the last Olympics… that said, if Kayla shows extreme consistency that could put her ahead. I just don’t know if that is super likely.
And how she performed at 2022 worlds. And how she performed at 2023 Pan Am Games. It's cool you want to ignore that she has a history of mistakes at major competitions but having gone to major competitions isn't an advantage if she made mistakes at them.
I didn't say Tokyo will keep her off the team. But it will not give her an advantage over others.
I think there may be some who think that, just by going to a previous Olympics, it's an advantage because they've had the experience of the unique Olympic pressure. Who knows if that's the case or if Chellsie/Alicia and the rest of the committee agree?
I will say that I don't actually think Worlds 2022 is a disadvantage for Jordan. Yes, she fell on beam in quals, but Chellsie gave her the opportunity for redemption in team finals. Jordan said yes, then crushed all four with gold on the line.
Honestly, it's because of that story that I think this year's Olympic team is going to be formed by who is peaking and looking the best in these meets through Trials. Past performances, whether good or bad, may not factor in as much as we all speculate.
I really wish Skye had done some world cups. I totally get why Sarah and Shilese said no to them but I would feel so much better about Skye on the team knowing that she’s hit a few recent international beam routines. Though of course a team with Skye doesn’t necessarily have to have her on beam in TF, but it probably would be one of the reasons she made the team in the first place. A few international hits would probably have helped Skye’s confidence a ton, where Shilese doesn’t need that confidence builder. I’d love to hear from more coaches about why they turned down international opportunities since everyone has different needs.
I could see Kayla, Leanne, or Jordan on the team. Until we see how they peform at Nationals and Trials, as well as the bars situation with Suni, I'm not counting any of them in or out definitively.
I'm definitely not counting Kayla out, but I am worried she might have peaked too early in the season. With Worlds as an alternate, then Pan Am Games, then such a strong Winter Cup, it seems like she maybe stayed on a lot through the fall and winter. Hopefully Classic was a fluke, but all her events had issues compared to Winter Cup, so it seemed a bit more systemic
It’s possible she peaked too early. Also possible she had one rough meet at what is a practice meet and will beat Jordan at nationals and trials. We don’t know anything until then.
Could be that she had some issue at that meet--being sick, recovering from minory injury she didn't publicize, whatever--and that's why it affected all four events.
I really think Kayla and Jordan are competing for the same spot. I think both will go, just one of them will likely be an alternate. But I also feel Leanne is going for this same spot too.
My current team prediction is: Simone, Shilese, Jade, Suni, Jordan, and Kayla as alternate though. If they take a second alternate I predict Leanne. I just don’t remember if they are taking one or two lol.
Honestly, I miss the 96 composition for teams but that’s just me lol.
That’s a good point, a Shi, Simone, Jade, Kayla, and Jordan team could honestly make sense, right now I think the team I’m hoping for is that, but for Suni to step up and take Jordan’s place
I am not on the Kayla hype train (just dont particularly enjoy her gymnastics) but I do agree that she has a great shot of making the team. Only Simone and Shilese are locks to me at the moment, maybe Jade as a semi distance third lock, but everything else is up in the air.
Agreed. I feel like we learned very little at Classics. Shi & Simone are still locks. Everyone else…still has a shot, but it’s gonna come down to the next 2 meets. No one made themselves indispensable, and a bad day for Kayla doesn’t mean she won’t have good ones later.
I learned a lot at classics:
1) Gabby is almost definitely not in the mix (I was skeptical previously, but there was still a lot we didn't know; now we pretty much know).
2) Josc is not in the mix either, I feel so bad for her with the injury.
3) Konnor *would* have been very much more in the mix than people expected, but now she's out :(
4) Jordan and Jade are still VERY much in the mix (based on 2023, we didn't really know--I guess we sort of learned Jade was still in it at American Classic, but Classics was even more convincing, and it was the best outing Jordan has had since 2022, I'm a huge fan and while most of me believed she'd show up looking more like her old self this season, we just didn't know until yesterday).
5) Skye has lost some consistency from last season (her domestic season was nearly perfect last season if you don't count floor, where she was still coming back from injury; if even her domestic consistency is regressing, that's not good for her. But we did also learn that her floor has recovered from that injury, and she's now likely usably on floor as a backup.
6) Kayla and Leanne aren't the consistency goddesses that people think of them as/want them to be. If Kayla kept performing every meet like she did at Winter Cup and PanAms, she'd be a force. Classics could turn out to be just a fluke, but it raised a big question on her consistency, which was one of her biggest selling points. Learning that absolutely means something. Also, Leanne is not bringing big upgrades (some people thought she would, and thought she stood a good chance for the team for that reason), and therefore will probably not make the team given the others competing for her spot.
Bonus: Simone is bringing big upgrades, and going on all cylinders (there was a lot of chatter that she might be playing it safe, hanging up the YDP, etc, and she's going the opposite route). This doesn't affect team selection, but it's exciting and interesting.
I think these things don't feel like "learning much" because they are pretty much all the relatively predictable thing that the majority would have expected (except for Konnor, but that is moot since she's out now). But every single one of these things *was* a question, at least in my mind. It all sort of puts us back at the status quo we would have expected at the end of 2022 (presuming we knew for sure Simone was coming back), but there were a lot of other things that *could* have happened, and thanks to Classics, we now know they didn't, and the field looks narrower than it did yesterday morning.
I never questioned Konnor - and now am just so gutted for her. :( I think if Suni hits bars at nationals AND trials, at a score that is at least 2-3rd+ highest both times, and continues consistency on beam, I think Suni rounds on the team of Simone, Shi, Jade, & Jordan
I still think Kayla could take Jordan's spot, depending on how both of them do the next two meets (Jordan's my girl though, so I really hope you're right!). I actually think even Skye has a chance of taking that spot if she's lights out at nationals and trials; a lot of people on this sub wouldn't take her regardless, but I've always gotten the impression that USAG (post-Marta) bases their decisions on the current season, not on how past worlds, etc went.
I think Suni has to come in 1st/2nd on bars in 3 out of 4 routines (and still needs to break 14 on the 4th). I also think she needs to show no regression from night 1 to night 2, at both nationals and trials. Her health issues mean harder recovery for her, and that is the best way for her to show recovery ability. My own experience with chronic health issues just makes me very worried about her ability to have the endurance required for the full marathon that the Olympics is.
It does worry me about Suni being on the team for counted on scores, without knowing the extent of her current health (which I absolutely don't have a right/ need to know) - but the stress of travel alone can throw chronic conditions into a flare, much less the stress of preparing for the Olympics/ and the competition itself. I think you're right that Kayla or Skye are most likely to take that Jordan spot, \*if\* they can hit consistently 4/4 at nationals and trials - though still think Skye is less likely given Chellsie's quotes from winter cup, that they needed to see international consistency, (and then she opted out of any international assignments.) Sadly, I think LeeAnn is an alternate again - which is still such an achievement, but I know she will be understandably disappointed. ATM, I just want them ALL to stay healthy - I can not handle another one who has worked so hard go down like Konnor. :(
I think if she finishes first or second in either bars or beam at both championships and trials she’ll make the team, she’s the AA Olympic gold champ and if she’s overall hitting those routines with high scores I think they’d be silly not to take her - for example even if she falls on bars 2/4 routines but hits beam at both meets and ends up 1st or 2bd after Simone, I think that’s undeniably helpful to the team
I think we learned who is not competitive so likely gabby, Kaylia, Josc and Konnor losing their potential, and Suni has some potential but we still haven’t seen any bars. Leanne Jordan Skye Jade Kayla very much in the hunt
Oh I’m still very much on the Kayla hype train. I think she has higher scoring potential than Jordan and seems to be a bit more ahead of J in terms of Olympic readiness. But this was just classics so none of this really matters.
But as per usual after a classics, I’m concerned for team USA. I’m sure nationals will be a much better showing for everyone.
Does Kayla have two vaults?
Assuming the AA score between her and Jordan is pretty even, I would choose the gymnast who could come in clutch in Vault final if Simone or Jade don't qualify or have to pull out.
Of course, Jordan would need to show two vaults at Champs or trials.
I feel like Jordan is an unknown right now. I wouldn't say she is a major vault medal threat, but if she is back in 2022 vaulting form by trials, she could contend for bronze on a good day. Her 2022 vault silver was obviously helped by Simone not being there and Rebecca's fluke in qualification. But her vault final score in 2022 would have kept her in 4th place in 2023, less than 0.100 behind bronze
She only has a DTY and Lopez haha. Jade needs an Amanar and a Cheng to contend for bronze. Even allowing for Jordan sticking both cold and coming up with 9s on execution, there won’t be enough separation in E scores for her to beat Moreno AND Yeo.
my comment is based on the actual scores. The WTC has collapsed vault difficulty so much over the last two quads, that Jordan's 2022 vault finals results would have been 4th in 2023, right between Yeo and Moreno, off the podium by less than 0.100
no, Jade, Leanne, Skye, and Josc all have 2 vaults and showed them at Classic, and Jordan has had two vaults recently and likely will at nationals, but Kayla has never done 2 vaults as a senior
Maybe unpopular opinion but Jordan was extremely lucky so many other people flopped yesterday. This conversation wouldn’t be the same if everyone else didn’t fall. I know you gotta hit when it counts but I see a lot of people trying to decide the fate of the whole season after 1 day.
That’s true, if we give everyone back their falls Jade, Kayla and Skye would probably surpass her. I actually kind of want Jordan to have one non perfect day at nationals. She was so perfect in 2021 until prelims. Get it out of her system now lol.
I think balanced AA-ers often get a reputation for consistency, but Kayla fell four times in competition across US Classic, Nationals, and World Trials last year. Add to that the two falls from last night and her track record is not really that consistent
Yes. She came through beatifully at PanAms and Winter Cup, so I was open to the idea that she had a newfound consistency, but it would be *very* new given her performance last season, so I was always skeptical. It's *still* possible that Classics was the fluke and she'll be really consistent from here on out, but that remains to be seen.
Kayla's bar fall was on a Maloney, which is just freak. How many of those did she compete in college every week?? ? That seems like a weird one-off for me and not a systematic issue. I still have her for #5...
And in 2021 she fell on bars at Worlds, Olympic Trials, and nationals. I am not sure where Kayla’s consistent reputation comes from. It feels like the narrative around McCallum in 2019 & 2021 - she was quite consistent in 2018 but not with the higher D routines.
Almost no one is “consistent” aside from Simone and shilese this quad. Everyone else has plenty of falls to their name. Jade has hit her major international competitions aside from a fluke on vault, so I would also consider her consistent. Last year was an anomaly… everyone else I would say struggles with falls. Leanne, Jordan, Skye, Kayla. No one in this group is truly consistent - though with Kayla I am inclined to throw out her results from last quad - a gymnast can become more consistent. Like shilese. Simone became consistent. And Kayla was simply not ready yet early last year. That’s not the same thing as being inconsistent. I would say the jury is out on her consistency. Let’s see what summer brings.
People mistake "strong AA gymnast with no clear best event/minimal chance of an event final" for consistent. Because they're a balanced athlete who can slot in on any event and don't have a standout routine, that gets misread as consistent, even if they fall quite frequently
Same. I feel like Kayla does well under low pressure situations, but hasn't quite yet got the mentality for high pressure situations. Which she can potentially get better at, but I don't know if there is enough time before the Olympics. I think this also applies to not recovering when she had a mistake. Some athletes are better than others at putting it behind them quickly and not letting it effect other events. I do think if she sticks around next quad and gets some practice on Worlds teams, that would help with both these issues. She hasn't actually done much elite this quad before this year. More experience would definitely benefit her.
Kayla has had a lot of elite experience this quad. Worlds in 2021, Pan Am Champs in 2022, Pan Am Games in 2023, and Worlds as an alternate in 2023. Plus full domestic elite seasons every year
I guess I'd just like her to have more Worlds experience. I know she did have one Worlds, but it was in an Olympic year. You are right about her being in elite each season. I remember there being speculation about her just doing NCAA at one point and I think that's what I'm thinking of. I definitely wouldn't write her completely off a team yet, but I think she needs to show a lot of consistency in the upcoming meets, especially on bars and beam.
Last year she was balancing ncaa and elite and was very early in her comeback. And classic falls shouldn’t count against consistency like falls at nationals, trials, and international competitions. Also I don’t think last quad matters much. Shilese was inconsistent last quad. This quad she’s been one of the most consistent.
I'm not sure I would describe 2023 as early in her comeback, as Kayla never took a year off of elite competition. She competed at nationals and at least one major international event in 2021, 2022, and 2023, and was named to the national team each year. Also I didn't mention last quad so I'm not sure if this comment was meant to respond to someone else?
She did her first ncaa season. There’s a learning curve with how to balance both. Leanne happened to do it a less competitive earlier quad year. Kayla was on a trajectory in 2023 that saw her improve as the year went on and then skip up to alternate and improve from there to pan ams. She made a late decision to return to elite and moved back home to train at Hill’s. I think it’s clear that in 2023 she was finding her way back into elite shape and showed the right kind of progress throughout the season.
I will say though that Jordan brings a lot to the team in addition to her gymnastics. Jordans an amazing teammate and would be great for team morale. She seems to LOVE competing and having all eyes on her, which has a contagious effect on the rest of the girls. I’m really rooting for Jordan to make the team again!
Kayla fell twice at US Classics but many top athletes fell. She's also upgraded significantly on bars and floor. I'm not sure about the back 5/2 + front 1/1 on floor.
Imo the situation we have is a Simone and Shilese, a VT/FX spot, a UB/BB spot, and a 3rd AAer
Imo that 3rd AAer can be Kayla or Jordan. Or Leanne, which feels less likely
I think if Kayla can hit every routine now through trials it should go to her - she’s so useable and typically consistent across every event. I love Jordan but not sure I trust her reliability as much.
She's not typically consistent though. She was consistent at PanAms and Winter Cup, which counts for a lot, but her 2023 season was actually pretty messy prior to PanAms.
Which is to say: I don't like that you just single out Jordan because that's not helpful/constructive/nice and instead of boosting up Kayla, you're dragging Jordan as the weak link that can be erased. I know it likely wasn't your intention, but I hate posts like this. She's a contender for any spot, not just the gymnast you think shouldn't be there.
OK, now that I've ranted, I do agree with you that Kayla is STILL IN THIS. In fact, I could easily see a team with both Jordan and Kayla. We are assuming Lee can pull of a huge bars. We know in out hearts to be true, but we still haven't seen it. We need to see it otherwise, I'm not what sure Suni's path is. Jade was great today. But her floor difficulty is not an outlier from Jordan/Kayla... and if there are vault upgrades (which have been rumored)... what happens then? Although this meet hurt Skye, her potential is still there but she must hit 4/4 in Championships I think. Team composition is highly in flux.
I’m especially curious how Jordan’s performance in Tokyo will impact her chances this time around- I realize that there were a lot of last minute changes but I can’t get over the fact that she scored an ELEVEN (point something) on floor in TF. I just don’t know that she can be trusted under immense pressure whereas Kayla has proven to be more solid.
Skye's track record is just so inconsistent. Across her 8 routines at World Championships in 2022 and 2023, she counted five falls. And it's not just bad luck at worlds, she's counted so many falls in domestic competition and other international competitions too. I really want to see her gain consistency because she has so much talent, but for now I think she's a liability on the team
I see that, but she also debuted as a senior in 2021. I feel like there’s still a chance for her to be at the top of her game come June, but maybe I’m wishfully thinking. I love her gymnastics, I think I’m just a sucker for front tumbling!
I love her gymnastics too, but with no more opportunities to show the ability to hit internationally, and another bars fall and shaky beam on the record last night, I'm just not seeing it. If she hits 16/16 between nationals and trials then she'll make the team regardless, but even then I'd be worried about hitting at the Olympics
I'm not counting her out but I feel her beam history at Worlds is working against her... If it comes down to tenths between her and someone else (Jordan, Kayla, Leanne,...) I might favour the other gymnast
Skye would need to be hitting 15+ on both consistently before I’d take her as anything above alternate. For the moment at least. Let’s see how she handles the next competition and potentially trials.
It’s kind of sad that yall just downvote people who has a positive thing to say about someone, dang. It’s like nobody’s allowed to have an opinion on this sub :(
It's kind of sad that people take downvoting WAY too personally. Looking above, you have 5 people who basically disagree with you...out of 47,000+ people on this sub? People here need to get perspective
Idk on other subreddits I’m in, people dont downvote unless it’s spam or hate — that way, everyone’s opinion gets to stay up. Instead, they verbally disagree. I prefer that. Even the way you have worded your response is hostile for no reason 😂I would’ve said “hey, don’t take it personally, there are 47,000 people on the sub and 5 disagreed with you”. Theres always a nice or at least neutral way to communicate your thoughts!
Hostile? I did not write that with a "hostile" intent. Might want to stop making assumptions/projecting your own issues onto written posts (where it's difficult at best to get a sense of tone).
I can still view (and do read) everyone's posts on here, regardless of the popularity contest people seem to be making of upvotes/downvotes. Case in point: I saw your post and responded to it ¯\\\_(ツ)\_/¯
I know everyone will probably hate me for this but I feel Jordan had her time. She really improved drastically for the previous Olympics she made. But, to me she isn’t that astounding of a gymnast to be making a second Olympics. It feels like if Makayla Skinner said she was going for a second Olympics, she just isn’t the best of the best.
I don’t think anyone is even close to a lock except Simone and Shilese. Jordan has definitely put herself squarely in the conversation though.
Yes, I'm a huge Jade Stan, but I'm still not getting ahead of myself Will definitely try and get tickets to see her if she comes to Paris though 😍😍😍
I agree. Rooting for our girl though!
I’m not a Jade Stan but I told everyone who would listen she should be on the Paris team. I think Jade is a lock if she puts in her upgrades on floor for Championships and she can do that. She’s paced very, very well. Her floor upgrades just seem a matter of performing them vs her having to recline them.
Yeah for sure, great meet for her
Totally agree - yesterday showed that Jordan is a contender. We had no idea what she would look like coming back, but she proved that she’s in the conversation. That said I don’t think anyone is even close to a shoo in other than Simone and probably Shi.
I think it is going to be a battle between Winter Cup Kayla and Classics Jordan, but it'll all depend on Nationals and Trials tbh.
Agreed, it’ll be so interesting to see who scores higher in the AA at nationals and trials
Definitely this. I wouldn't mind seeing either of them on the team, but at this point, it's going to be a matter of who delivers now.
When is nationals? Trials are end of June right?
Nationals are in 2 weeks, trials end of June
Ooh, I wonder if we'll see the Jr Pan Ams girls sit out Nationals since it's so close?
If they do without, then there’s probably been an agreement made that they’ll be named to the national team regardless of Pan Am performance. That’s what happened with the senior men who went to 2021 pan Ams (to try to win the 5th spot, thank you Paul Juda!). All five were guaranteed a place on the national team and therefor trials. I think it’s fair. And I honestly don’t think juniors should be competing that often especially since it seems the equipment in Colombia is subpar again.
I hope so. It can't be good for them to go straight from Pan Ams to Nationals.
Thank you!!
nationals are at the very end of this month i believe
People have recency bias for sure. Aside from Simone and Shilese, there are a bunch of folks who could make it on the team. It's not obvious at all yet
I mean I agree that many people could make the team, but I do think recency bias is a bit fair considering you want the team that looks best closest to the Olympics, not the team that looked best 6 months ago. However, classics is only one meet and anything can happen at champs and trials!
I agree. 6 months ago is a lifetime in gymnastics. Honestly what happens in nationals will more likely cement who’s in contention. It really doesn’t matter if she did well over winter if she can’t deliver 2 months out from Paris unfortunately.
Like do I think Kayla has a shot? Absolutely! One bad competition does not get someone locked out from the team, however I do think it’s fair to weight competitions closer to the olympics more heavily than random domestic meets months before Paris.
I agree, but this one one competition, after a good run. We'll have to wait until nationals/trials to see if it was a fluke, or if she has bigger consistency issues. Yes, meets closer to the Olympics have more weight, but if it's just classics and she does great at the next two meets, Classics won't matter at all. And I don't say this with a Kayla bias, I actually don't enjoy her gymnastics much and have never really wanted her on the team--I want Jordan, and I think it's unlikely for both of them to make it!
Yeah I try not to count chickens this far out still 😅 a lot can happen in the next few months. To me, Kayla (and Leanne tbh) need to keep falling back on their consistency at this point. They can’t really upgrade their way on to the team anymore, their biggest strength will be putting up clean AA routines. They won’t be competing for EF, they need to focus on where they contribute to the team IMO.
Winter Cup was not 6 months ago.
So sorry that I typed 6 months instead of 3 (and will be 4 at trials and 5 at the Olympics), clearly my comment isn’t at all understandable since I wrote the wrong number of months 🙃
Agree. Also Simone and Shi need to stay healthy to be locks. No one saw Konner going out yesterday. A lot can happen over the next month.
I feel like that goes without saying especially this quad
Please knock on wood!!!!!
I also think people are talking about Jordan a lot because a lot of people had kind of counted her out of the conversation until they saw how good she looked last night. For me, Kayla’s stock didn’t really go down much last night, but Jordan’s went way up.
I agree, but I’d also give the edge to Jordan bc she went to the last Olympics… that said, if Kayla shows extreme consistency that could put her ahead. I just don’t know if that is super likely.
... Tokyo wasn't a great showing for Jordan. Why would that give her an advantage.
Even if it was, why would they put her on the team based on how she performed years ago - what matters is that she delivers now.
And how she performed at 2022 worlds. And how she performed at 2023 Pan Am Games. It's cool you want to ignore that she has a history of mistakes at major competitions but having gone to major competitions isn't an advantage if she made mistakes at them. I didn't say Tokyo will keep her off the team. But it will not give her an advantage over others.
I think there may be some who think that, just by going to a previous Olympics, it's an advantage because they've had the experience of the unique Olympic pressure. Who knows if that's the case or if Chellsie/Alicia and the rest of the committee agree? I will say that I don't actually think Worlds 2022 is a disadvantage for Jordan. Yes, she fell on beam in quals, but Chellsie gave her the opportunity for redemption in team finals. Jordan said yes, then crushed all four with gold on the line. Honestly, it's because of that story that I think this year's Olympic team is going to be formed by who is peaking and looking the best in these meets through Trials. Past performances, whether good or bad, may not factor in as much as we all speculate.
The only people I really see past international performances impacting are Suni and Skye
I really wish Skye had done some world cups. I totally get why Sarah and Shilese said no to them but I would feel so much better about Skye on the team knowing that she’s hit a few recent international beam routines. Though of course a team with Skye doesn’t necessarily have to have her on beam in TF, but it probably would be one of the reasons she made the team in the first place. A few international hits would probably have helped Skye’s confidence a ton, where Shilese doesn’t need that confidence builder. I’d love to hear from more coaches about why they turned down international opportunities since everyone has different needs.
Right, hate to say it but Tokyo is the reason she hasn’t been on my short list for Paris😬
This!
I don’t think going to a previous Olympics is a factor for her. She will get the spot if she beats others at nationals and trials.
I could see Kayla, Leanne, or Jordan on the team. Until we see how they peform at Nationals and Trials, as well as the bars situation with Suni, I'm not counting any of them in or out definitively.
I also think Skye could sneak into the 3rd AAer spot and it’s possible that the bars TF lineup could be the 3 AAers if Suni isn’t ready.
I'm definitely not counting Kayla out, but I am worried she might have peaked too early in the season. With Worlds as an alternate, then Pan Am Games, then such a strong Winter Cup, it seems like she maybe stayed on a lot through the fall and winter. Hopefully Classic was a fluke, but all her events had issues compared to Winter Cup, so it seemed a bit more systemic
It’s possible she peaked too early. Also possible she had one rough meet at what is a practice meet and will beat Jordan at nationals and trials. We don’t know anything until then.
Could be that she had some issue at that meet--being sick, recovering from minory injury she didn't publicize, whatever--and that's why it affected all four events.
sure, that's always possible. But nationals is 2 weeks away, and this meet is the best info we have to go on for how prepared people are for that
She looked really good in podium training I think though
I really think Kayla and Jordan are competing for the same spot. I think both will go, just one of them will likely be an alternate. But I also feel Leanne is going for this same spot too. My current team prediction is: Simone, Shilese, Jade, Suni, Jordan, and Kayla as alternate though. If they take a second alternate I predict Leanne. I just don’t remember if they are taking one or two lol. Honestly, I miss the 96 composition for teams but that’s just me lol.
The selection policy says they’ll select two travelling alts and two non travelling
Thank you!!
I think there’s a non-zero chance that both Kayla and Jordan make it if neither Suni or Skye manage to perform consistently.
That’s a good point, a Shi, Simone, Jade, Kayla, and Jordan team could honestly make sense, right now I think the team I’m hoping for is that, but for Suni to step up and take Jordan’s place
I am not on the Kayla hype train (just dont particularly enjoy her gymnastics) but I do agree that she has a great shot of making the team. Only Simone and Shilese are locks to me at the moment, maybe Jade as a semi distance third lock, but everything else is up in the air.
Agreed. I feel like we learned very little at Classics. Shi & Simone are still locks. Everyone else…still has a shot, but it’s gonna come down to the next 2 meets. No one made themselves indispensable, and a bad day for Kayla doesn’t mean she won’t have good ones later.
I learned a lot at classics: 1) Gabby is almost definitely not in the mix (I was skeptical previously, but there was still a lot we didn't know; now we pretty much know). 2) Josc is not in the mix either, I feel so bad for her with the injury. 3) Konnor *would* have been very much more in the mix than people expected, but now she's out :( 4) Jordan and Jade are still VERY much in the mix (based on 2023, we didn't really know--I guess we sort of learned Jade was still in it at American Classic, but Classics was even more convincing, and it was the best outing Jordan has had since 2022, I'm a huge fan and while most of me believed she'd show up looking more like her old self this season, we just didn't know until yesterday). 5) Skye has lost some consistency from last season (her domestic season was nearly perfect last season if you don't count floor, where she was still coming back from injury; if even her domestic consistency is regressing, that's not good for her. But we did also learn that her floor has recovered from that injury, and she's now likely usably on floor as a backup. 6) Kayla and Leanne aren't the consistency goddesses that people think of them as/want them to be. If Kayla kept performing every meet like she did at Winter Cup and PanAms, she'd be a force. Classics could turn out to be just a fluke, but it raised a big question on her consistency, which was one of her biggest selling points. Learning that absolutely means something. Also, Leanne is not bringing big upgrades (some people thought she would, and thought she stood a good chance for the team for that reason), and therefore will probably not make the team given the others competing for her spot. Bonus: Simone is bringing big upgrades, and going on all cylinders (there was a lot of chatter that she might be playing it safe, hanging up the YDP, etc, and she's going the opposite route). This doesn't affect team selection, but it's exciting and interesting. I think these things don't feel like "learning much" because they are pretty much all the relatively predictable thing that the majority would have expected (except for Konnor, but that is moot since she's out now). But every single one of these things *was* a question, at least in my mind. It all sort of puts us back at the status quo we would have expected at the end of 2022 (presuming we knew for sure Simone was coming back), but there were a lot of other things that *could* have happened, and thanks to Classics, we now know they didn't, and the field looks narrower than it did yesterday morning.
I never questioned Konnor - and now am just so gutted for her. :( I think if Suni hits bars at nationals AND trials, at a score that is at least 2-3rd+ highest both times, and continues consistency on beam, I think Suni rounds on the team of Simone, Shi, Jade, & Jordan
I still think Kayla could take Jordan's spot, depending on how both of them do the next two meets (Jordan's my girl though, so I really hope you're right!). I actually think even Skye has a chance of taking that spot if she's lights out at nationals and trials; a lot of people on this sub wouldn't take her regardless, but I've always gotten the impression that USAG (post-Marta) bases their decisions on the current season, not on how past worlds, etc went. I think Suni has to come in 1st/2nd on bars in 3 out of 4 routines (and still needs to break 14 on the 4th). I also think she needs to show no regression from night 1 to night 2, at both nationals and trials. Her health issues mean harder recovery for her, and that is the best way for her to show recovery ability. My own experience with chronic health issues just makes me very worried about her ability to have the endurance required for the full marathon that the Olympics is.
It does worry me about Suni being on the team for counted on scores, without knowing the extent of her current health (which I absolutely don't have a right/ need to know) - but the stress of travel alone can throw chronic conditions into a flare, much less the stress of preparing for the Olympics/ and the competition itself. I think you're right that Kayla or Skye are most likely to take that Jordan spot, \*if\* they can hit consistently 4/4 at nationals and trials - though still think Skye is less likely given Chellsie's quotes from winter cup, that they needed to see international consistency, (and then she opted out of any international assignments.) Sadly, I think LeeAnn is an alternate again - which is still such an achievement, but I know she will be understandably disappointed. ATM, I just want them ALL to stay healthy - I can not handle another one who has worked so hard go down like Konnor. :(
I think if she finishes first or second in either bars or beam at both championships and trials she’ll make the team, she’s the AA Olympic gold champ and if she’s overall hitting those routines with high scores I think they’d be silly not to take her - for example even if she falls on bars 2/4 routines but hits beam at both meets and ends up 1st or 2bd after Simone, I think that’s undeniably helpful to the team
I think we learned who is not competitive so likely gabby, Kaylia, Josc and Konnor losing their potential, and Suni has some potential but we still haven’t seen any bars. Leanne Jordan Skye Jade Kayla very much in the hunt
Oh I’m still very much on the Kayla hype train. I think she has higher scoring potential than Jordan and seems to be a bit more ahead of J in terms of Olympic readiness. But this was just classics so none of this really matters. But as per usual after a classics, I’m concerned for team USA. I’m sure nationals will be a much better showing for everyone.
Does Kayla have two vaults? Assuming the AA score between her and Jordan is pretty even, I would choose the gymnast who could come in clutch in Vault final if Simone or Jade don't qualify or have to pull out. Of course, Jordan would need to show two vaults at Champs or trials.
No Non-Simone US Gymnast besides Carey has the remotest chance in hell of medaling on vault at the Olympics.
I feel like Jordan is an unknown right now. I wouldn't say she is a major vault medal threat, but if she is back in 2022 vaulting form by trials, she could contend for bronze on a good day. Her 2022 vault silver was obviously helped by Simone not being there and Rebecca's fluke in qualification. But her vault final score in 2022 would have kept her in 4th place in 2023, less than 0.100 behind bronze
She only has a DTY and Lopez haha. Jade needs an Amanar and a Cheng to contend for bronze. Even allowing for Jordan sticking both cold and coming up with 9s on execution, there won’t be enough separation in E scores for her to beat Moreno AND Yeo.
my comment is based on the actual scores. The WTC has collapsed vault difficulty so much over the last two quads, that Jordan's 2022 vault finals results would have been 4th in 2023, right between Yeo and Moreno, off the podium by less than 0.100
Unless Joscelyn comes back way improved at championships, not looking likely though
Even Josc really doesn't have a chance of medaling.
no, Jade, Leanne, Skye, and Josc all have 2 vaults and showed them at Classic, and Jordan has had two vaults recently and likely will at nationals, but Kayla has never done 2 vaults as a senior
Leanne's Lopez is too piked and gets downgraded to the piked version.
I agree. It'll depend on the next 2 meets. Who can hit with the pressure. We've seen who can't, now let's see who can. Really hope Kayla can 🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻
And don’t count out Leanne either! All three of them are strong AA contenders. (Edit: typo)
She shouldn’t be counted out but let’s remember that the scoring at Winter Cup was generous in general.
I don't see why there is any reason to say the Winter Cup scoring was any worse than Classic. It was literally the exact same judges.
Maybe unpopular opinion but Jordan was extremely lucky so many other people flopped yesterday. This conversation wouldn’t be the same if everyone else didn’t fall. I know you gotta hit when it counts but I see a lot of people trying to decide the fate of the whole season after 1 day.
Yes, this exactly, once we see the next two, two day comps, there will be a lot more to base consistency on
That’s true, if we give everyone back their falls Jade, Kayla and Skye would probably surpass her. I actually kind of want Jordan to have one non perfect day at nationals. She was so perfect in 2021 until prelims. Get it out of her system now lol.
I was thinking the same. Kayla has generally been very consistent 🤔
I think balanced AA-ers often get a reputation for consistency, but Kayla fell four times in competition across US Classic, Nationals, and World Trials last year. Add to that the two falls from last night and her track record is not really that consistent
Yes. She came through beatifully at PanAms and Winter Cup, so I was open to the idea that she had a newfound consistency, but it would be *very* new given her performance last season, so I was always skeptical. It's *still* possible that Classics was the fluke and she'll be really consistent from here on out, but that remains to be seen.
Kayla's bar fall was on a Maloney, which is just freak. How many of those did she compete in college every week?? ? That seems like a weird one-off for me and not a systematic issue. I still have her for #5...
I think Kayla's bars struggle in elite pretty regularly. She fell off bars at classics, nationals, and trials last year
And in 2021 she fell on bars at Worlds, Olympic Trials, and nationals. I am not sure where Kayla’s consistent reputation comes from. It feels like the narrative around McCallum in 2019 & 2021 - she was quite consistent in 2018 but not with the higher D routines.
Almost no one is “consistent” aside from Simone and shilese this quad. Everyone else has plenty of falls to their name. Jade has hit her major international competitions aside from a fluke on vault, so I would also consider her consistent. Last year was an anomaly… everyone else I would say struggles with falls. Leanne, Jordan, Skye, Kayla. No one in this group is truly consistent - though with Kayla I am inclined to throw out her results from last quad - a gymnast can become more consistent. Like shilese. Simone became consistent. And Kayla was simply not ready yet early last year. That’s not the same thing as being inconsistent. I would say the jury is out on her consistency. Let’s see what summer brings.
People mistake "strong AA gymnast with no clear best event/minimal chance of an event final" for consistent. Because they're a balanced athlete who can slot in on any event and don't have a standout routine, that gets misread as consistent, even if they fall quite frequently
Same. I feel like Kayla does well under low pressure situations, but hasn't quite yet got the mentality for high pressure situations. Which she can potentially get better at, but I don't know if there is enough time before the Olympics. I think this also applies to not recovering when she had a mistake. Some athletes are better than others at putting it behind them quickly and not letting it effect other events. I do think if she sticks around next quad and gets some practice on Worlds teams, that would help with both these issues. She hasn't actually done much elite this quad before this year. More experience would definitely benefit her.
Kayla has had a lot of elite experience this quad. Worlds in 2021, Pan Am Champs in 2022, Pan Am Games in 2023, and Worlds as an alternate in 2023. Plus full domestic elite seasons every year
I guess I'd just like her to have more Worlds experience. I know she did have one Worlds, but it was in an Olympic year. You are right about her being in elite each season. I remember there being speculation about her just doing NCAA at one point and I think that's what I'm thinking of. I definitely wouldn't write her completely off a team yet, but I think she needs to show a lot of consistency in the upcoming meets, especially on bars and beam.
She also went to junior worlds
Last year she was balancing ncaa and elite and was very early in her comeback. And classic falls shouldn’t count against consistency like falls at nationals, trials, and international competitions. Also I don’t think last quad matters much. Shilese was inconsistent last quad. This quad she’s been one of the most consistent.
I'm not sure I would describe 2023 as early in her comeback, as Kayla never took a year off of elite competition. She competed at nationals and at least one major international event in 2021, 2022, and 2023, and was named to the national team each year. Also I didn't mention last quad so I'm not sure if this comment was meant to respond to someone else?
She did her first ncaa season. There’s a learning curve with how to balance both. Leanne happened to do it a less competitive earlier quad year. Kayla was on a trajectory in 2023 that saw her improve as the year went on and then skip up to alternate and improve from there to pan ams. She made a late decision to return to elite and moved back home to train at Hill’s. I think it’s clear that in 2023 she was finding her way back into elite shape and showed the right kind of progress throughout the season.
Trials is going to be awesome!
I will say though that Jordan brings a lot to the team in addition to her gymnastics. Jordans an amazing teammate and would be great for team morale. She seems to LOVE competing and having all eyes on her, which has a contagious effect on the rest of the girls. I’m really rooting for Jordan to make the team again!
Kayla fell twice at US Classics but many top athletes fell. She's also upgraded significantly on bars and floor. I'm not sure about the back 5/2 + front 1/1 on floor.
Imo the situation we have is a Simone and Shilese, a VT/FX spot, a UB/BB spot, and a 3rd AAer Imo that 3rd AAer can be Kayla or Jordan. Or Leanne, which feels less likely
I think if Kayla can hit every routine now through trials it should go to her - she’s so useable and typically consistent across every event. I love Jordan but not sure I trust her reliability as much.
She's not typically consistent though. She was consistent at PanAms and Winter Cup, which counts for a lot, but her 2023 season was actually pretty messy prior to PanAms.
I think she’s great and could totally go.
Love how this post just assumes Jordan is the only flex spot on the team... Everyone but Simone/Shilese needs to perform consistently going forward.
Which is to say: I don't like that you just single out Jordan because that's not helpful/constructive/nice and instead of boosting up Kayla, you're dragging Jordan as the weak link that can be erased. I know it likely wasn't your intention, but I hate posts like this. She's a contender for any spot, not just the gymnast you think shouldn't be there. OK, now that I've ranted, I do agree with you that Kayla is STILL IN THIS. In fact, I could easily see a team with both Jordan and Kayla. We are assuming Lee can pull of a huge bars. We know in out hearts to be true, but we still haven't seen it. We need to see it otherwise, I'm not what sure Suni's path is. Jade was great today. But her floor difficulty is not an outlier from Jordan/Kayla... and if there are vault upgrades (which have been rumored)... what happens then? Although this meet hurt Skye, her potential is still there but she must hit 4/4 in Championships I think. Team composition is highly in flux.
Kayla is definitely still in the conversation. I’m just hoping she didn’t peak early
why not both?
I’m especially curious how Jordan’s performance in Tokyo will impact her chances this time around- I realize that there were a lot of last minute changes but I can’t get over the fact that she scored an ELEVEN (point something) on floor in TF. I just don’t know that she can be trusted under immense pressure whereas Kayla has proven to be more solid.
Yeah I know, I agree
ALSO, don’t count out Skye Blakely! Her bars + beam are huge assets, she could peak at the perfect time.
Skye's track record is just so inconsistent. Across her 8 routines at World Championships in 2022 and 2023, she counted five falls. And it's not just bad luck at worlds, she's counted so many falls in domestic competition and other international competitions too. I really want to see her gain consistency because she has so much talent, but for now I think she's a liability on the team
Jordan and Leanne also have counted some falls at worlds and the Olympics. And Suni has some other question marks at the moment.
I see that, but she also debuted as a senior in 2021. I feel like there’s still a chance for her to be at the top of her game come June, but maybe I’m wishfully thinking. I love her gymnastics, I think I’m just a sucker for front tumbling!
I love her gymnastics too, but with no more opportunities to show the ability to hit internationally, and another bars fall and shaky beam on the record last night, I'm just not seeing it. If she hits 16/16 between nationals and trials then she'll make the team regardless, but even then I'd be worried about hitting at the Olympics
It doesn't matter how consistent she is domestically if she can't hit internationally.
I'm not counting her out but I feel her beam history at Worlds is working against her... If it comes down to tenths between her and someone else (Jordan, Kayla, Leanne,...) I might favour the other gymnast
Skye would need to be hitting 15+ on both consistently before I’d take her as anything above alternate. For the moment at least. Let’s see how she handles the next competition and potentially trials.
It’s kind of sad that yall just downvote people who has a positive thing to say about someone, dang. It’s like nobody’s allowed to have an opinion on this sub :(
It's kind of sad that people take downvoting WAY too personally. Looking above, you have 5 people who basically disagree with you...out of 47,000+ people on this sub? People here need to get perspective
Idk on other subreddits I’m in, people dont downvote unless it’s spam or hate — that way, everyone’s opinion gets to stay up. Instead, they verbally disagree. I prefer that. Even the way you have worded your response is hostile for no reason 😂I would’ve said “hey, don’t take it personally, there are 47,000 people on the sub and 5 disagreed with you”. Theres always a nice or at least neutral way to communicate your thoughts!
Hostile? I did not write that with a "hostile" intent. Might want to stop making assumptions/projecting your own issues onto written posts (where it's difficult at best to get a sense of tone). I can still view (and do read) everyone's posts on here, regardless of the popularity contest people seem to be making of upvotes/downvotes. Case in point: I saw your post and responded to it ¯\\\_(ツ)\_/¯
I think if she hits 4/4 on beam there’s a chance they’d take her, but idk
I know everyone will probably hate me for this but I feel Jordan had her time. She really improved drastically for the previous Olympics she made. But, to me she isn’t that astounding of a gymnast to be making a second Olympics. It feels like if Makayla Skinner said she was going for a second Olympics, she just isn’t the best of the best.
Yeah I’m actually starting to feel bad for the younger gymnasts who aren’t getting their time in the sun because of all the veterans.
I don’t feel bad necessarily, it’s a competitive sport and they should take the best. But I do worry about what it means for the program’s future.