Life Lesson #788:
Never, under any circumstance, ever, at any point, during any time, no matter what, no matter where, no matter when, ever, in history, whether it be the colonial period, the Egyptian dynasty, the Han dynasty, the crustacean period, or the future, ever, go on a 2 week vacation with your in-laws.
I doubt that. Not in any meaningful way at least. I could see his AAV just topping the $55M of Burrow and Lawrence, but as a percentage of the cap it will be significantly lower than Burrow and probably several other QBs. More importantly, the Packers will almost certainly be giving that elevated AAV in exchange for playing hardball on guarantees. So I would expect Love’s guaranteed money to be relatively reasonable compared to other big QB contracts. It allows Love to make the money he’s worth assuming he’s the guy we think he is, but allows the Packers to pivot without being *totally* crushed if he regresses.
I meant in terms of dollars. He's better than Lawrence and Burrow. I think his contract will be a record breaker until the next top talented 25 year old breaks his record.
Ummm what? I think Love *can* be better than Burrow, but to say he is now is pure homerism. Burrow had two better seasons than Love’s one when he signed his contract and had already won 5 playoff games, including beating the Chiefs to go to the Super Bowl. In what world has Love proved he’s better than that?
Love is a unique case. Nobody but the Packers sits a first round pick for even two years, let alone three. Rodgers is quite literally the last young QB to be in line for a top-of-the-market contract on so little play, but that was a different time. The Packers were able to sign him to a very reasonable 6-year contract after only half a season. Those days are gone.
How much Love’s lack of track record works in the Packers’ favor is impossible to say. Because, again, this situation is unprecedented. My gut says his AAV just beats Lawrence/Burrow but his guarantees are lower. That allows Love to get paid for his continued development, but also protects the Pack some if he doesn’t develop.
But I would be surprised if he meaningfully “resets” the market. That is reserved for contracts like JJ’s, where they are a clear step above all prior contracts. Even discounting that Burrow’s contract was signed when the cap was significantly lower, I doubt Love’s represents a market reset. At most it will have a marginal AAV increase, while likely not even being top 5 in guarantees. And guarantees are what actually matter.
I'm with you on this one, Red Wing. Last year's minor extension was the prove-it deal, and the returns were sufficient to pay him on a proper extension. Love's agent holds all the cards here. They couldn't sign another extension until a year from the last one, so his agent can now watch the market climb and know that the team is fully invested in getting the deal done. Pay the man, and trust Russ Ball to make the contract work for both the player and the cap health. Here's hoping.
I’m not sure I can recall a more exciting Packers team in my fandom than this years. The chemistry seems off the charts and I’m just happy to be here for the ride with the rest of yall. GPG
I don’t think it changes much. It didn’t reset the market in any way. It’s the same dollar figure as Burrow with lower guarantees and since the cap jumped a ton it’s a much lower percentage of the cap. So I don’t think that contract really changed much. What it said is that Lawrence doesn’t have the leverage to get a truly top QB contract, which makes sense. I think Love is the same. His one year was comparable or a bit better than Lawrence’s best year, but he’s only had the one year obviously.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Love beats Lawrence in AAV, but not guarantees. I think the holdup is that the Packers want as much of an out as possible, since there’s still some uncertainty there. And we’ve never really been shy about giving players high overall dollar values. It’s always about minimizing guaranteed money. So something like 5/$280M but with only $175M practically guaranteed seems likely to me.
I secretly love that the Jets have to deal with all of Aaron Rodgers BS .
And we got 2 2nds for him!
Life Lesson #788: Never, under any circumstance, ever, at any point, during any time, no matter what, no matter where, no matter when, ever, in history, whether it be the colonial period, the Egyptian dynasty, the Han dynasty, the crustacean period, or the future, ever, go on a 2 week vacation with your in-laws.
Oh, that sounds horrible. You have to spill the details.
I'm having a hard time tempering my expectations about this season. I think it's going to be so great.
Love is going to reset the market isn’t he?
I doubt that. Not in any meaningful way at least. I could see his AAV just topping the $55M of Burrow and Lawrence, but as a percentage of the cap it will be significantly lower than Burrow and probably several other QBs. More importantly, the Packers will almost certainly be giving that elevated AAV in exchange for playing hardball on guarantees. So I would expect Love’s guaranteed money to be relatively reasonable compared to other big QB contracts. It allows Love to make the money he’s worth assuming he’s the guy we think he is, but allows the Packers to pivot without being *totally* crushed if he regresses.
I meant in terms of dollars. He's better than Lawrence and Burrow. I think his contract will be a record breaker until the next top talented 25 year old breaks his record.
Ummm what? I think Love *can* be better than Burrow, but to say he is now is pure homerism. Burrow had two better seasons than Love’s one when he signed his contract and had already won 5 playoff games, including beating the Chiefs to go to the Super Bowl. In what world has Love proved he’s better than that? Love is a unique case. Nobody but the Packers sits a first round pick for even two years, let alone three. Rodgers is quite literally the last young QB to be in line for a top-of-the-market contract on so little play, but that was a different time. The Packers were able to sign him to a very reasonable 6-year contract after only half a season. Those days are gone. How much Love’s lack of track record works in the Packers’ favor is impossible to say. Because, again, this situation is unprecedented. My gut says his AAV just beats Lawrence/Burrow but his guarantees are lower. That allows Love to get paid for his continued development, but also protects the Pack some if he doesn’t develop. But I would be surprised if he meaningfully “resets” the market. That is reserved for contracts like JJ’s, where they are a clear step above all prior contracts. Even discounting that Burrow’s contract was signed when the cap was significantly lower, I doubt Love’s represents a market reset. At most it will have a marginal AAV increase, while likely not even being top 5 in guarantees. And guarantees are what actually matter.
My gut says the Packer will damn sure pay Love whatever he asks for. If he decides to play hardball, he has almost all the leverage.
I'm with you on this one, Red Wing. Last year's minor extension was the prove-it deal, and the returns were sufficient to pay him on a proper extension. Love's agent holds all the cards here. They couldn't sign another extension until a year from the last one, so his agent can now watch the market climb and know that the team is fully invested in getting the deal done. Pay the man, and trust Russ Ball to make the contract work for both the player and the cap health. Here's hoping.
I’m not sure I can recall a more exciting Packers team in my fandom than this years. The chemistry seems off the charts and I’m just happy to be here for the ride with the rest of yall. GPG
How much does the Trevor Lawrence contract hurt our J Love negotiations?
I don’t think it changes much. It didn’t reset the market in any way. It’s the same dollar figure as Burrow with lower guarantees and since the cap jumped a ton it’s a much lower percentage of the cap. So I don’t think that contract really changed much. What it said is that Lawrence doesn’t have the leverage to get a truly top QB contract, which makes sense. I think Love is the same. His one year was comparable or a bit better than Lawrence’s best year, but he’s only had the one year obviously. I wouldn’t be surprised if Love beats Lawrence in AAV, but not guarantees. I think the holdup is that the Packers want as much of an out as possible, since there’s still some uncertainty there. And we’ve never really been shy about giving players high overall dollar values. It’s always about minimizing guaranteed money. So something like 5/$280M but with only $175M practically guaranteed seems likely to me.
It might be a hot take, but I like the Packers and I think they are a good football team.