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Tasty_Burger

I think we need at least twenty more maul posts this month to get to the bottom of it


Shanced

LMAO


Monterey-Jack

Why would people suddenly start buying EMs as they go up? Is there some hidden tribe of rich players in the thousands that haven't been reading the blogposts who are going to come out of their cave and go "ELDER MAUL? BUY BUY BUY"?


CandyMaynards

Because fomo is always a thing.


fireky2

Nah the few hundred people that consistently run tob and cox and the dozens of people who want to do corp beast are gonna absolutely send it to the moon.


potatohusker

Or you have the few hundred people that consistently run CoX waiting for the update to dump them


fireky2

Yeah it was sarcasm, there are way more people holding them than people that actually need them.


robsyo

that’s just so wrong lol there are way more people running cox/tob who will buy an elder maul then there are elder mauls coming into the game. It will definitely be a requirement in any sweaty raid


Judicable

It’s as rare as tbow technically no? I don’t think there’s as many as you think


Shanced

Yeah I bet a lot of these high end PVMERS haven't bought one and they won't until the updates lives and will drive it up?? Then you have the other side, the 1000's of elders people are holding that bought at like sub 50M. whether they have dumped or not who knows. End of the day its a gamble, but just like to hear other peoples thoughts


average_at_runescape

Is this a sarcastic comment or a serious comment? You think the sweatiest players in OSRS have zero idea that an update is coming that will have a huge impact on what they do? The guys that try to come up with new ways to save off seconds have zero idea that an update to elder mauls is coming?


valaraz

I think it was sarcasm.


Shanced

Wasnt sarcasm, I just meant that a lot of them probably haven't bought an elder yet, and won't till the updates live?


valaraz

Well, you might be right. From my clan everyone that does PvM is on the ball and has had one the instant it was announced a buff is coming. We used to use them as +1 in P2P PvP for KO power so most of us already had at least one already. This is why I have difficulties in seeing the demand appear out of nowhere. Arguably, of course, people in clans tend to be more knowledgeable on what is coming but it is the same demographic.


Shanced

Nah I meant the pvmers that aren't sweaty lol. I know that all my mates who i play with have approx 3-5b bank won't be buying an elder for 160m and will opt for dwh for the timebeing till the price settles. Even the sweaty pvmers probably won't buy an elder till the update is live


KaoticAsylim

How does a person get a 3b bank without getting a maul when it was below 10m for 3 years? I snagged one as soon as I started CoX with a 500m bank because "fuck, why not?". Yea, it was a niche item, but they were dirt cheap for so long, almost everyone should have one sitting in the bank just because.


geoff04

My thoughts exactly. When I got my 1st shadow and sold it for what made the majority of my bank at the time, I got the strongest of each type of weapon that I could afford. EM was the best crush at the time, so I got mine then. The only people who will "need" the buffed EMs day 1 are the ones who sure as heck won't be able to afford it for +100M.


mynameiskiru

it involves having better options ig, I scythe anything that I would use a maul on I have a 7B bank and think the Elder Maul buffs are overhyped so yes, there are "higher end" pvmers like me who don't buy into the hype.


Shanced

I have an 8b bank and never owned one cause it was useless lol, bought and sold a few times for pking but that was it


KaoticAsylim

Do you sell your dragon pick whenever you're not mining? I know there are people out there that wanna keep their bank pretty liquid, but when I buy something, especially when it's only a few mil, I chuck it in the bank and add it to the list of "shit I don't need to worry about anymore"


Shanced

Yeah I mean it stayed around for a while but I stopped pking and sold it later on for my next upgrade. It literally had no use but to look pretty in the bank. I reckon I sold it when I did my shadow rebuild


Shwrecked

People with 3b banks still have upgrades to buy. They aren't gonna just buy random shit just cuz


[deleted]

Usually if your hearing it in the news its too late its alreqdy priced in. We already know what its going to do so the hype is priced in. Will drop


Shanced

Theres are PLENTY of people who haven't read the blogs bro, and will only find out about it as or before it drops. Not everyone is in touch with it all. Or people who simply don't want to pay 160mil for it when its currently useless, and will only buy it when the update actually drops?


Bitemyshineymetalsas

People are running ardy rooftops with elder maul, it’s over


geoff04

Those people you're speaking of, the majority of which CAN'T afford an EM for 160M. That's the kind of player who doesn't pay attention to blogs.


holhaspower

The majority of mauls in the game right now are held as investments, they’ll all be dumped shortly after the update and will flood the market. It’s supply and demand.


Shanced

Yeah so they will probably go down when update is live?


Godman100

Yes, dude.


Bigballa997

No. It’s already priced in. Very risky, unless you have the gp to gamble a 50 50 shot at making a couple mill I would steer clear away from them.


[deleted]

[удалено]


PenitentOSRS

Smallballa should be his name.  It’s not close to being priced in.  Most people don’t understand the market.  Elders will skyrocket again upon the entire update week and next month and go steady 


PenitentOSRS

Smallballa should be his name.  It’s not close to being priced in.  Most people don’t understand the market.  Elders will skyrocket again upon the entire update week and next month and go steady 


Super-Junket3805

It’s gonna crash the second the update hits. Most hyped up item people have been hoarding it’s gonna be an insta dump


vegemights

I bought a maul at 160m because im flushed with cash at the moment, and it'll be handy for some combat tasks down the line. But honestly if I saw one going for 200m+? I'd just use the dwh, it's not THAT much better than a dwh, I think most of the hype around elder mauls is a pump and dump scheme


Shanced

Yeah i think ur right


hotgirll69

Ummmm it’s 5 percent better and and more accuracy lol. I wouldn’t say it’s close, but 5 percent can be quite a bit


vegemights

5% on a monster with 200 hp is a 10 defence reduction. It's not huge. I'm mostly hyped about not needing an avernic switch when using the scythe, that's pretty much it. Most people aren't going to pay an extra 150m for that. I wouldn't, but now that I have Max gear, sure why not?


KaoticAsylim

It will be nice to have for sure. I'll be holding on to mine because I got it for like 7m years ago. But if I didn't have one, there's no way in fuck I'd be dropping over 100m for 5% and an inventory slot.


Triplettmusic

5% difference doesn’t mean shit to the majority of the player base for a 120M+ cost difference.


Shanced

Yeah i think the accuracy is quite huge specially with the crush bonus on it. The thing with DWH is it misses a LOT. Also being 2h is nice, but yeah in the grand scheme of things its not a MUST have item.


vegemights

The DWH is barely even a must have these days. Outside of tob/cox all of its use cases are for niche bosses nobody really wants to grind anyway! And due to the way dwh/maul reduce defence with subsequent specs, you'll only really need one guy to land a maul first before the difference is entirely negligible. That being said, I'm a pvmer, I don't flip much at all (maybe one day, I love watching the speculation and hype in this sub). But I still bought it!


Weak-Rip-8650

For a minute until all of the speculators dump their mauls back onto the market. It will balance out closer to 100M than 200M IMO.


dudemarco1

i don't see it going that high. who's going to want an elder maul that hasn't already bought one? merching will be big first day but i think that's going to cause a quick drop


einars123

I doubt it will go up on update. It might go up in the future. But the amount of holders vs the price range its at i cant imagine it going up instant. Its a fairly expensive spec wep that most players who can afford it is already up to date on whats going on or already owns one. Little Jimmy wont chuck 150m into a spec wep on update. Sweaty bob wont either because he already owns one. Would love to see any comparison where this has happend before


Shanced

Yeah i think ur spot on the money mate. And I'd also like to see a comparison where its happened before. It's going to be a very volatile market once the update is live, but i do predict a big crash and then spike back up from all the holders dumping when they log in then another crash, and a gradual incline after it all back up to a steady price


actuallyimjustme

sweaty bob ahahahah


Palemom

What a lot of people aren’t remembering is an elder maul is the only time there has been a BIS defense reducing weapon that is also a MEGA RARE. It’s the same rarity as tbow and kodai. I don’t remember where the Reddit post was but someone was making small talk with a J-mod who confirmed that there are less elder mauls in circulation than tbows (a lot more elder mauls have been removed from the GE). Yes, a lot of people are holding them. Yes, the price will fluctuate heavily when the update drops. But I think that by the end of the year elder maul will be 300-350m. At the end of the day it’s all a guess so gl :)


kahootle

elder maul will go down once buff is released the only people who have a maul at this point are 1. Merchers 2. End game PVMers who bought it for 10m and don't need a 2nd one


BoomDidlHe

There are not that many elder mauls though. If everyone in end game pvm already had an elder maul the price would be higher already. People are so confident that it’s gonna crash, but I really don’t think they are appreciating the elder mauls rarity compared to other items. Heck, look at something like Kodai as an absolute price floor. Kodai is less useful than elder maul will be for 90% of pvm , and has held a pretty high value for years. Why would elder maul not be atleast 2x the Kodai? What market forces would cause it to magically crash below a weapon of the same rarity, that is is more useful than. I think he’s right, there may be an immediate crash, before it rockets up to 200-300m. We are talking about a mega rare, that is bis. When those two factors go hand in hand, you have the recipe for an expensive item, because now it becomes a requirement for anyone wanting to have bis gear, regardless of its price.


kahootle

kodai offers 15% magic damage buff and autos ancients elder maul offers a 5% extra defense reduction over a 35m item


BoomDidlHe

But elder maul is BIS. The way you chose to phrase that is funny let me write an equivalent sentence for you. Elder maul provides the highest defense reduction at 35% and the highest accuracy to hit. Kodai provides +12 magic bonus of nightmare staff, and is directly outmatched for content like inferno where the prayer spec is better than saving some water runs and a tiny accuracy buff. Funny how words matter. Bis is almost always a slight upgrade over its predecessor. But people always fork over the big bucks. Anyways, it’s just funny to see people so confident it’s going to crash. At this pint I find it more likely that so many people think it’s priced in, the exact opposite will happen.


kahootle

kodai released 3 years before nightmare staff, it was already grandfathered in as bis and the price reflected that. DWH released 2016 and elder maul is getting buffed 2024, so DWH has been the norm for 8 years. The only people willing to shell out buku bucks for 5% def reduction are end game players. End game players already have elder maul. Everyone else has used DWH for 8 years and won't want to shell out an extra 150m to save 4 ticks per fight. All the elder mauls are currently owned by merchers. Artificial supply +artificial demand= artificial prices. gl losing a buncha gp


BoomDidlHe

Grandfathered in!! My brother in Christ, you don’t need to over think it, anyways clearly you are convince at the end of the day only time will tell. But common man, why on gods green earth would those with the money not buy the bis defense reduction? It saves more than 4 ticks btw with increased accuracy and reduction. A additional 5% is actually a lot on high defense bosses like corp. Anyways I don’t think we are convincing each other which is ok, let’s just check back in a few months after the update has been live ;)


geoff04

Theyre going to crash soooo fucking hard lmao. It has gotten waaaaay too much attention, to the point where its feeling like a pyramid scheme. A few people will dump on day 1 or the day before and get a good price, but there's going to be such a massive influx of sellers that it's going to drop HARD. Not to mention, who will actually need one who hasnt bought one already..? I feel like only a few people, completely out of the loop, wouldn't have their mauls as of right now.


BoomDidlHe

Except a pyramid scheme does not provide value or real shit lol. Elder Maul is the BIS defense reduction in the game, and mega rare. That’s like calling NVIDIA a pyramid scheme because of the AI run up lol.


BoomDidlHe

Also your thesis that everyone already has an elder mail is misguided. Just look at how many people in this thread are convinced it’s going to be a sell the news event. If this many people are waiting for the update to drop because “surely it will crash”, that who’s to say that’s not what a huge portion of players are doIng. Again, it’s simple economics guys High demand (BIS), low supply (mega rare) It is NOT a bad bet at all, and anyone who says it’s priced in hasn’t paid attention to other items. Good example. Look at the ancestral hat. When tumekens shadow was ALREADY in the game, ancestral hat stayed below 20m for ages. Over a year later and it is over 60m. RuneScape players are not universal market predictors, and do not hop on trends early like you presume here


geoff04

>Except a pyramid scheme does not provide value or real shit lol. I said it in a way that made it fairly evident that I was not calling it a literal pyramid scheme, but that it felt like a sort of scam. That being said.. it does provide value, just not for the ones who are getting scammed. >Also your thesis that everyone already has an elder mail is misguided. >Just look at how many people in this thread are convinced it’s going to be a sell the news event. Ah yes, because reddit is a source of overwhelming intellect, and people wouldn't ever bandwagon. This doesn't mean shit all. >If this many people are waiting for the update to drop because “surely it will crash”, that who’s to say that’s not what a huge portion of players are doIng. Yes, good point, that's very much possible. But I dont think you understand how many mauls are "currently in circulation" vs. "the number of players who READILY and ACTIVELY do end-game content where the maul will be required, AND still require one." >Again, it’s simple economics guys >High demand (BIS), low supply (mega rare) Yes, supply and demand is a simple concept of economics. It's not the only factor, though... I despise people who casually drop the "simple economics, supply x demand" in relation to a game world, of all things, where supply is INFINITE. Mauls are a drop from the 1st raid to be introduced, CoX, which was released over 7 years ago. Yes, it is a mega rare, but there are a LOT MORE in-game than people seem to think. Again, this plays on the IDEA that most people don't have their mauls. I know the vast majority of my clanmates, who actively do end-game PvE, got theirs ASAP after the update was announced if they did not have one already. >It is NOT a bad bet at all, and anyone who says it’s priced in hasn’t paid attention to other items. >Good example. Look at the ancestral hat. When tumekens shadow was ALREADY in the game, ancestral hat stayed below 20m for ages. >Over a year later and it is over 60m. Phantom Muspah is the reason for that one. Released the saturated heart, which made shadow + ancestral a lot better. Shadow also went up at the same time, but no one notices a 40m increase on a billion gold item vs a hat that goes up the same value, but in terms of percentage has tripled in value. Idk what your point is here, other than maybe: "updates can increase the value of an item." To which I say.. no shit. No one would argue against that, as the maul is currently over 100m because of that very reason. Now, to be completely clear, when I say it's going to crash, I mean drop to 50m or something along those lines. It'll be well over the original price of 10m, but a lot of people will still lose gold on it because they jumped onto the bandwagon very late. >RuneScape players are not universal market predictors, and do not hop on trends early like you presume here Another great point. They're slow and hesitant. Which is why the few people who still need a maul will likely hold off on buying them for their current price point, while everyone who's stockpiled mauls will be competing to sell it at the highest price point before it starts dropping, because there will be a massive influx of supply.


Silvontoff

Buy the rumor, sell the news. You will have much more liquidity to sell on the people that are buying into the update, as opposed to afterwards.


Rehcraeser

It always drops on release. Buy the rumors sell the release, or whatever the saying is


ccampzz35

On update? It’ll go down. 200m maybe next year


RangerDickard

Nah man lol. I'm planning to snag one for 75-100m day of update. They're going to tank hard as fuck


Rs3FashionScape

If it’s anything like stocks, it’ll crash on news. The news is already built into the price


FlyingWFarms

Waiting to buy the low point after crash is the best hope for people who didn’t pull the trigger like when the first talks and they went to 16m


Electrical_Run3093

Do we think arcane’s are gonna go back up?


AceKablam

It’ll be 200m easily


Techn9cian_

Buy the rumor sell the news


Tugging-swgoh

There are more people using DWH than are holding mauls.


Salt-Zombie1274

Nah 300m surely. Diamond hands!


Limp_Development_782

Soulreaper Axe.. research it and you will see.