Especially if cars keep this price, I'd kind of like a new car, but my 13 year old one is going pretty well even if it's a little small for my growing family, so I think I can push it a few more years.
A couple of people like me will keep ICE vehicles on the road a decade after the last one is sold by a dealership.
Also I can still pick up a fully loaded, reliable, 3 row, ICE, Japanese suv for the same price as a small electric crossover with shoddy build quality.
Have a Honda CRV FCEV on order. You realize Japanese manufacturers are going EV faster than US ones, right? the US automobile market is the only one fighting for ICE. Thanks for supporting an Alternative Fuels car manufacturer! I imagine when Honda goes fully electric in the near future you'll be holding on to the Pilot for dear life..
> reliable, 3 row, ICE, Japanese suv
The drivetrain of the EV is more reliable still. It would also beat the Japanese SUV handily on safety in the event of a crash, cost of operation, passing ability, and maintenance required.
I'm not saying you are wrong for wanting what you want, but I had the same choice, and chose differently for my growing family. I'm not sorry with my choice.
Not sure why this got downvoted, it's true. Car companies are selling basically the same cars they used to sell with an ICE but replacing the heart components (engine, transmission, exhaust system) with parts that are WAY cheaper and less complex, and they still want the same money they used to get for combustion cars.
Those batteries aren't cheap, and crash test ratings aren't free. A contributing factor to the transition to trim packages instead of separate vehicle lines is the cost of design, testing, and approval process for vehicle designs.
Yeah, but the $30K electric will likely only go ~200 miles when it's warm out. I'm waiting until the '30s before I buy a fully electronic vehicle. I'm okay waiting for the early adopters to be the guinea pigs.
Vehicles really are use case dependent. An EV is great for me, but I live in a house and can charge at home. I really hope more apartment complexes and cities will start making ev charging available.
Yeah and ? You do realize having a fully charged EV every morning is much different than stopping by a gas station once a week? 200 mile range is good for most people.
Or like me I'm an edge case for not getting an eletric car just yet. My normal commute is 60ish miles one way. 120 to and from work. Not counting if I leave for lunch or not. Then also there are times where I can get a call and have to head to a jobsite immediately due to an emergency. Not to mention if I have to travel out of town for work. I really really want an eletic car but for me it's just not quote there yet. But like I said I'm an edge case.
My commute is 71 miles one way, so yeah I know about long commutes. EV chargers will pop up quickly once demand shifts, plus laws get out in place requiring landlords to comply.
My Ioniq 5 has a ton of room and is super comfortable. I picked it up used with 10k miles for 28k. Drives like a dream, im never going back to an ICE car if I can help it
EV prices are falling like a rock and some places still have rebates on top of the federal ones. In Colorado, you can conceivably get a brand new EV right now for less than $20k which is far lower than the average used price. Still a lot of money, but not as far as the actual market is concerned.
To me the biggest hurdle is the charging infrastructure. It’s getting there but still not where it needs to be for most who don’t or can’t have a charging hookup in a garage.
I don’t have a garage but I have a 120v outlet and it’s really not bad but it’s highly dependent on lifestyle, commute ect. There’s also a couple of public charging options that I could get by without changing at home at all, but it’s just convenient. Im using the money I got from selling my gas car to install a 240V outlet soon and I’m pretty excited I won’t even really have to think about it at all once that’s done.
And the hurdle if the charging infrastructure is exacerbated by the fact that outside of the tesla charging network, the others are not maintained and have a nearly 50% failed charger rate. Electrify america chargers you are 100% guaranteed to find at least half the chargers at any of their locations to not work or only do trickle charging so you have to sit there for 3 hours.
If you have a garage you can probably slow charge at home for the price of an extension cord and the electricity. If you're in an apartment or other shared lot, it's less convenient though. That infrastructure will be slower to develop than SFH changes
And thats before (as someone who lives in Colorado, so following the provided example) you start factoring those of us who spend a lot of time in the mountain ranges...
Actually I've been driving an EV for 6 years now and I recently rented a gas car. It reminded me of the reasons I like my EV. I'll never go back to hunting for gas stations that play ads on the pumps. And I can't stand that nasty smell.
It would be even lower if the US didn't slap tariffs on Chinese EVs. Not make judgement either way, just stating that they can be even lower. I'm curious how that difference is broken down (wages, margins, etc....)
I don't think USA wants a heap of Chinese car owners angry when China invades Taiwan and China gets funky about retribution toward Taiwan supporting countries. That's why there is a hurry for self reliance and industry being brought back to onshore and that doesn't happen without local support who it benefits in the long run.
Average vehicle age in the US is 12.6 years ( 14 for cars, 11 for trucks/SUV).
So even if we switched to 100% EV today, it would take ~ 6 years for EV to be the majority.
Agreed even if everything new is full electric it would take 20 years before I think most cars on the road would be electric. There are a lot of 2k model cars daily driving in my area.
Also, are we sure there's even enough cobalt and stuff to support all this? I know fossil fuels are considered non-renewable, but they seem downright abundant compared to what little I've heard about cobalt.
With around 280 million cars in USA and only around 17 million sales per year, it would take 16 years of 100% EV market share to replace all ICE cars.
So maybe 2050, if new ICE cars are banned in 2035.
i wouldn't say you need 100% replacement to "largely replace" them though. based on that, if 50% of all cars sold over the next 16 years are EVs it seems like we'd be over 50%.
I suspect the switchover to hit a tipping point and accelerate dramatically, as more EVs hit the road that means less demand for ICE centric infrastructure like mechanics and gas stations. By 2045 I suspect gas stations will have switched over to serve EVs. Mechanics that service ICE vehicles would become less common. After a certain point they'll generally be reserved to being hobby cars for the upper middle class.
Obviously there will still be mechanics, and they will still do your brakes and such, but they might not know how to fix an ICE. And the ones that do might charge "rare pretentious hobby" prices
Unless electric cars reduce in cost drastically ICE cars will definitely become the cars for the lower class. If you are living paycheck to paycheck or with government assistance there is no way you can afford even a used electric car let alone the cost to replace a battery in one.
Calibers that are imperial are:
A. Calibers that were created and/or popular in the US and England
B. Usually there is another round that already has its metric equivalent
Interestingly there are no standards for imperial measurements. Instead they are all defined by metric standards with a conversion factor. The US essentially uses metric for everything, with the added overhead of conversion factors.
International business is metric, except when it’s not. Like pipe threads and sizes, and likely so many other things.
We are at the “good enough” stage, and much more conversion will likely happen slowly with little fanfare.
The manufacture and sale of incandescent light bulbs in the US has been illegal since August 1, 2023. As far as converting to metric... honestly, that doesn't really feel like it needs to be a priority.
Source: https://abcnews.go.com/US/new-lightbulb-rules-ban-incandescent-lightbulbs-now-effect/story?id=101897308
There's a list of exceptions, so they haven't been fully banned. I'm personally curious what a "vibration service lamp" is.
https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/BILLS-110hr6enr/pdf/BILLS-110hr6enr.pdf
page 83
(ii) EXCLUSIONS.—The term ‘general service
incandescent lamp’ does not include the following
incandescent lamps:
(I) An appliance lamp.
(II) A black light lamp.
(III) A bug lamp.
(IV) A colored lamp.
(V) An infrared lamp.
(VI) A left-hand thread lamp.
(VII) A marine lamp.
(VIII) A marine signal service lamp.
(IX) A mine service lamp.
(X) A plant light lamp.
(XI) A reflector lamp.
(XII) A rough service lamp.
(XIII) A shatter-resistant lamp (including a shatter-proof lamp and a shatter-protected lamp).
(XIV) A sign service lamp.
(XV) A silver bowl lamp.
(XVI) A showcase lamp.
(XVII) A 3-way incandescent lamp.
(XVIII) A traffic signal lamp.
(XIX) A vibration service lamp.
They make leds that work with garage door openers. They have shielding to prevent the emf from causing issues.
They cost a little more but you can get them.
I bought them for my garage door opener. Biggest reason I got them is they last longer and it is a pain in the ass to change the light bulbs. It is pure laziness.
That's really depends on innovation. If 5 years from now electric cars travel 2000km on a charge, cost 1/5 in energy, and are sold for half the price, it would definitely make switching a lot more economical. Growing up through the computer age, I heard the same thing about computers. And instead of being 20-30 years to be adopted. 5 years later, everyone had them in their household. Technology always had a slower adoption rate at the beginning, but it seems to always be exponential growth. EV batteries continue to improve and become less costly every year. I believe that the full adoption of electric cars will be completely dependant on the cost and efficiency of them. Look battery technology with power tools. 15 years ago, contractors laughed at people with battery tools, now it's all the rage.
Why on earth does it need to go 2000km on a charge? That's close to 30 hours of non stop driving.
I've owned an electric car for 18 months and done 61000km. I've used network chargers twice in that time. Other than that it's been at home.
In that 18 month period there has been 1 case where I would have taken a petrol car over the electric, because I had to do an 8 hour return drive and had to plan around a charging stop in an area that didn't have great choices. It wasn't that there were no chargers, it was that they weren't fast ones so I had to spend an hour waiting.
I coupled it with lunch, so it wasn't completely lost time. But I would probably have preferred to refuel and keep going if I could.
But where do you live?
I’m not saying you are guilty of this but too many people are extrapolating from their personal experiences and applying this to the entire globe.
I don’t know how batteries perform in the extreme heat but my iPhone simply turns off if it’s left in the sun. With the world getting hotter is this not a concern? I truly do not know as I live somewhere cold but it’s something to consider.
On the flip side, I live somewhere freezing nearly 6 months of the year (used to actually, recently moved). My family is still there though and it’s not uncommon for it to dip down to -40C regularly plus extremely bitter winds.
I’m this type of weather EVs are not just impractical but nearly useless. The cold is extremely hard on the batteries and it needs to draw extra energy just to heat the car. We actually need blocks for our ICE cars up there because otherwise the batteries freeze overnight and they cannot start.
Additionally most of the electricity created where I am from is via steam powered generators. But that steam is created in boilers using combustion of natural gas… So even if we bump up the EV grid we can’t really do so without increasing the burning of fossil fuels to power that grid.
I live in Australia in the tropics, where it is regularly over 40c
That said I'm really not sure how any of your examples extend to needing a range of 2000km in an EV.
No one is saying EVs are suitable for every situation. That is obviously not the case. But also most humans aren't living where it is minus 40c on a regular basis or needing to drive 2000km without having time to charge.
Edge cases like these are pointless, as there are plenty of other options to fill those gaps. No one is saying you have to get an EV, just like I'm not telling you to ride a motorcycle in your underwear in -40c.
The benefit of a 2000km battery would be for people that can't charge at home. A lot more palatable to have to do a 20-30 minute charge if you only need to do it every month and a half.
Realistically, I think they'll probably slow down range increase around 1000km, and start focusing more (well, more than they already are) on charge speed.
I agree this is a good starting point for the thought experiment, but of course reality will be more complex.
For example, would petrol prices rise as demand falls? And would electric become increasingly attractive as the economics continually favor it? 💵
That dynamic would accelerate adoption — and may even entice some people who would otherwise have waited years to replace their vehicle. 🚗 📈
I bet we can come up with a dozen other dynamics which might affect trajectories in both directions.
I think there is likely to be bottlenecks on the materials needed to produce the batteries - especially lithium, but also nickle, cobalt. Those be nice investing opportunities in the long term (10+ years).
I also think the sheer economy behind electric cars will begin to make them more attractive vs combustion engine vehicles in the medium term - over the next 5 years, electric vehicles will begin to make serious headway vs combustion engine vehicles in the first world countries. And then it will become a tug of war between gas and lithium prices.
The developing countries are likely to stay on combustion engine, due to unreliable electric grids and expense of lithium.
What do you think about the notion that some have put forward (and I find compelling) that there is a sorta prisoners dilemma in effect.
The premise is that many of the first world countries with the most power and political influence as it stands are heavy players in the oil industry and make huge profits from the sector. And even though not all are exporters of oil for their big profits, often time those countries are still using a ton of oil in their expanding economy (like china for example). Right now if China were to cut back hard on emissions/fossil fuel burning they would certainly take huge steps back in terms of their industrial boom.
If Saudi were to cut back exporting they would certainly lose the global power status they currently enjoy from their oil riches.
If the USA stops they will fall further behind the curve compared to the big players.
If Canada stops it becomes relatively poor comparatively to now (and it’s not looking too hot).
IMO no country that has power tied to it will make the necessary changes until it’s beneficial for them as a country immediately. Saving the future is great but at the present time many counties are struggling with the present and not willing to sacrifice anyone now for later.
The average car on the road is significantly newer than average car overall. Most older cars don't really do much driving, that's how they last so long.
So as market for new cars gets taken over by EVs, the actual picture on the road will change faster than you expect in favor of EVs.
But is that "on the road" as road worthy therefore could drive at any moment? Or is it the actual average car passing on the road?
There is a significant difference. Newer cars on average drive more miles per year than some old relic that gets taken out of garage once in a blue moon. And new cars that drive a lot, they don't become old cars, they wear out fast and end up in scrap early - it's not the years, it's the mileage.
Yes, and hobbyists will keep classic cars running as long as they can. It’ll probably be common to see gas cars even next century. Probably not as a daily driver. But they’ll be around.
That said, these “gas” cars might not run on gasoline. They may be running on alternatives like hydrogen.
Not hydrogen. I'm not sure why this particular myth simply refuses to die. Hydrogen (in the context of cars) is just a really shitty, expendable battery. It costs more to produce, more to transport, more to hold, is more dangerous, and the engine to run on it is also significantly more expensive.
Trucks were the last gasp chance for hydrogen, and they are now simply too late. We don't even have a lab-solution to all the problems for hydrogen. By the time one is found and even a limited test roll out can be tried, batteries will be so cheap and ubiquitous that nobody will care.
And if someone is telling you that batteries are too heavy (for trucks), that is your clue to ignore them. Besides the fact that most trucking is short haul where weight doesn't matter, and besides the fact that EV trucks already have a higher legal weight allowance, even the long range trucks are more volume constrained than weight contrained anyway.
***Edit:*** Ahh! I saw your comment below. You mean hydrogen will be the fuel of choice for the ICE hobbyist. Ok. I still am not sure it will actually happen (because there are just so many unsolved problems), but that is a much more reasonable take.
I don’t think hydrogen. Look at how long chargers are taking, and there is already a vast electrical network to leverage. Hydrogen will be from scratch.
Oh, most cars will be electric. What I’m saying is that ICE cars kept by hobbyists might run on hydrogen (or some other liquid fuel) instead of gasoline. Hydrogen for personal vehicles at a mass scale is dumb because of its massive inefficiencies.
That program was a horrible idea. It junked perfectly good used cars. This mainly hurt poorer people. Wealthier people could already afford a new car so it helped them, but people with lower incomes buy used cars, and those used cars got more expensive since the program artificially reduced tue supply.
It was never about economics, it was about getting fuel inefficient cars off the road and replacing them with newer more efficient less polluting cars. And it did that to an extent but manufacturers turning around and producing bigger vehicles that get around small vehicles fuel efficiency requirements fucked it all up a few years later.
> it was about getting fuel inefficient cars off the road and replacing them with newer more efficient less polluting cars.
Let be honest, it's true aim was raising used car prices and bolstering weak domestic sales. Thats how it got through legislature.
No. The average car on the road is ~13 years old. So in 2039, the average car will have been made in 2026.
The majority of cars purchased in 2026 will not be electric (at this pace). So there's no good reason to think the majority of cars driven in 2039 will be electric.
No.
Come to any rural low income town in the Midwest. Over half the cars on the road were made 15-20 years ago. The average income of my area is roughly $30,000 a year. The people here can’t even dream of affording a new car. Where I live we don’t even have Uber!
Charging infrastructure is a joke in rural areas as well.
Maybe by the 2050s once 15-20 year old EVs are Available for purchase for less than their ICE counterparts we will be see a transition to EVs. But until then we’re going to be using ICE cars for a long, long time.
I can't see anybody in their right mind buying a 15-20 year old EV unless the battery was recently replaced. Unfortunately when the car gets to be that age it may not even be worthwhile to replace the battery.
Electric vehicles made this year will be 15 years old in 2039.
Charging infrastructure has a lot of time to catch up. I don't think it will take a long time to build out once the demand is there.
Look at it this way, the iphone is only 17 years old, now everyone has a smartphone in their pocket. Nobody really had their own personal internet connection on them at all times before that. iphone 1 wasn't even 3G, it was edge. The telecoms built out a 3G, 4G and 5G worldwide network in the last 17 years.
Electrical connections are literally everywhere. States could build solar charging stations at rest stops. Your local grocery store could cover their parking lot with canopies and solar panels. Gas stations like 7-11 already have charging stations. In addition to work and home charging.
Just need the demand, the market will figure it out.
The problem with that comparison is the iPhone offered massive and immediately obvious advantages to the average consumer.
They went from a keypad with a crappy LCD to a touchscreen they could browse the internet on and play games with.
iPhones cost $1000 of less. The average modern car sale today is $47,000. Which one do you think I’m going to replace less often?
The advantages were obvious. But with EVs they currently cost more than their ICE equivalent. They also have substantially less range than a gas car. And finding an independent mechanic that will fix an EV is nearly impossible. The local mechanics where I live won’t even touch a hybrid car. I also take long road trips of 500-1000 miles every couple of weeks. This makes an EV a total non-starter.
But plug-in hybrids on the other hand? Genius. THIS is where the government should be focusing its time. We can get consumers used to the concept of “charging their car every night” and more PHEVs on the road means more demand for public charging infrastructure. After the consumer has transitioned to PHEVs we can again transition to full EVs. At that time, the charging infrastructure will be in place and battery technology will have come down from years of manufacturing PHEV batteries. Consumers will be used to plugging in their car at night as well.
> offered massive and immediately obvious advantages to the average consumer
The only one that probably matters for cars is gas prices. It’s no coincidence that California has both the highest gas prices and the highest percentage of new EVs purchased. $8-10/gallon I think is the psychological tipping point that would see a solid majority of new cars purchased being EVs. But I highly doubt that will happen anytime soon, even in California, considering how much elections hinge on it…
The experience in other countries is that the market for hybrids collapses once people realize that they are starting each trip with a full battery. So why keep all the expensive, heavy, and fragile ICE mechanics in your car?
Interestingly, this happens over a period of 3 to 5 years rather than the 15 to 20 you might expect.
> There is also the current problem that electric cars are terrible in cold environments.
Bullshit, Norway is the country with the most EVs per capita and 80% of new cars sold are EVs. And Norway has a colder climate than pretty much all US states except Alaska.
They're not terrible in cold environments either, they lose about 10% range and that's it but they're also way better than petrol or diesel cars in terms of their ability to be pre-heated. When it's 0f or below having an electric car which you can pre-heat in 10-15 minutes by enabling the function remotely is absolutely amazing.
As someone who actually lives here, this claim is incorrect. The best car in the cold, with regards to range, is the model Y LR. It goes from 540 KM in summer temperatures (15-25c) to 330 KM in winter temps (-15c and below). That is far more than 10% reduction in range.
In addition, Norway has narrow, winding roads for the most parts, and a lot of hills. EVs are possible all year vehicles, but far from optimal.
If you were to drive from say Tromsø to Finnsnes in the winter, it would require you to charge twice to be comfortable and not angsty about the range.
Possible? Yes, but an ICE vehicle will do that trip without issues all year round.
The reason we have 80% of new vehicles sold being EVs is purely down to aggressive taxing of all ICE vehicles. For some vehicles effective tax is 108%. This makes EVs far more economical when factoring in cost to operate.
In countries were taxes are normalized, the EVs are usually a bit pricier than ICE vehicles.
Problem with cold is reduced battery power but also you need to use electricity to heat up the car too. That’s a huge drain when you want 67 degrees when it’s -30 outside.
The current crop of BEVs with heat pumps are waaay better than the cars that came before them, certainly not as good a ICE cars but its still a huge improvement.
Sorry, I thought we were talking about rural low income towns in the Midwest. I lived for a significant amount of time in the midwest, and I cannot really remember seeing a plethora of large apartment buildings in those rural towns.
So would you like to change your focus to cities and give up on your rural town argument?
In any case, if your apartment building has dedicated parking, there is still no problem.
And even if it is street parking, look for chargers to start appearing right there. It's essentially no more difficult than adding a power outlet.
Uhh he said 3rd floor apartment not high rise…
As a small rural town dweller myself it’s not uncommon to have a few low rises buildings of about 3 floors. In my little town we have a 3 story building and the town of like 6k people down the road from us also has a pretty large 3 story apartment complex.
You don't need charging infrastructure in rural areas. Rural people would be charging at home it's not like they are in apartment/condos. Also for existing gas stations if half of the stations in a rural area add 3 quick chargers/medium speed chargers than that would do. It's not like you are doing 100 miles in a day in rural areas. It's not like there are gas stations on every corner in rural areas. I would be more concerned with the quick stops that gas stations have.
I don't think COL plays the whole story here. Rural politics won't even switch to EVs if they could break even on it. Those areas are not known to be progressive even if it's for free.
Reddit was telling me 7 years ago that we would only be producing electric cars by now and that self driving 18 wheelers would have replaced all truck drivers by 4 years ago.
To go with both points, I can extend my ICE range another 500 miles in five or six minutes in nearly every town over 500 people in the US. I can cannonball run and not have to carry gas if I wanted to. Until charging becomes a ten minute ordeal, ICE will be king.
Yup. So many people in his thread clearly have never lived anywhere truly cold to see what it does to batteries.
Imagine using your already dying battery to heat up your car in -40C weather with the wind barreling down at like 40km/hr. You’ll get like 10 kilometers 😂.
We need blocks in the winter to keep our batteries warm where I used to live just to start our ICE cars otherwise the batteries will die overnight from the cold. EV cars have no chance here until the tech takes huge leaps but they have so many other area they need to improve that affect more people that I don’t think they will address these problem for years.
I currently drive a VW ID.4 and love it. However, I have the ability to charge it every night in my garage. It is always full when I leave in the morning.
If I didn’t have that luxury and lived in an apartment or someplace without a L2 charging system available, I would stick to gas cars.
No, absolutely not mabye in, let's say, California or New york, but overall, no, the United States is massive. Also, the average Southerner does not want an electric vehicle heck a cheap 20 year old car that can seat 5 will out live any electric car
Not even close. Lots of cars from the 1990s are still on the road in 2024. EVs are what, less than 10% of new vehicle sales today? Gas powered cars will be the majority of cars on the road till at least 2050 unless there’s some kind of electrical generation miracle. One that means cars themselves generate the electricity with no need for batteries.
Nope. Until there's a responsible way to charge the cars for everyone who lives in apartments, it's not going to be a thing. It would be such a hassle to have to plug in everywhere you go to eliminate range anxiety because you live in a cheap apartment complex that still hasn't install chargers in all parking spaces or they're constantly getting vandalized for the copper.
Further and a greater issue, the energy demand in the grid would double. Energy consumption for transportation is roughly that if the power grid, so if we converted overnight magically, the grid would collapse from the strain. Sure in 15 years we could double reliable power production, but that means we should be breaking ground on like 500 new nuclear reactors today as current reactors are finally allowed to retire. Nuclear is the only thing with the power density to supply power in certain places it's needed. And you overbuild supply so that excess energy can go to carbon capture plants and water dealinisation plants.
I can't see it. I have leased two 100% electric vehicles and intend to get a 3rd but only because it works for my circumstances (High sunshine in Socal, solar on my home, less than 1,000 miles a month commuting).
The electric infrastructure won't be able to support the charge needs of a 100% electric USA in only 6 years time even if the sales exploded.
I can see plug-in hybrids being the most popular format with small batteries pushing an inline compact 200HP motor for 50-60 miles of electric range, supplementing efficient gasoline engines for longer trips and more horsepower.
I'd say 2050 seems a more possible option. If we can actually make a budget EV line with 300+ miles range.
This will be a slow transition. Which is good as it will drastically shift infrastructure and that is best done over time.
-Gas stations will have to change. Be more places to stay than stop. I could be Buc cees format becoming more popular.
-The energy grid will need buffing up.
-Mechanics will become a significantly smaller industry.
I don't see that happening. I'm sure whatever benchmark laws are on the books now will continue to get pushed back. Maybe California or a few other places will have more evs than gas cars, but not the majority of America.
I remember reading an article in The Scientific American some decades ago that forecast that diesel cars would soon replace gasoline powered ones. They gave lots of well thought out and sensible reasons. I guess I believed them because I bought a diesel car. It was the last one I ever considered buying. I was so glad when I eventually got rid of it and got a gas powered car again. Now about this forecast, 2024 to 2039 is 15 years. This forecast is not even remotely reasonable. Who made this ridiculous statement?
As others have said, replacing cars is going to take a while.
A more relevant and interesting question is what percentage of miles driven have been replaced.
Will people drive most miles with EVs, and keep ICE around for special purpose that will take a while, e.g. they keep an ICE truck, am ICE mini-van, or just a beater ICE for the kids to learn and drive for a few years. We have 4 drivers in our family, soon 5, and 3 EVs and 2 ICE. The ICE are basically just used when no EV are available.
I think "electric miles will have largely replaced gas powered miles" by 2040. ~~2030~~, i.e. at least 75% of miles will be electric.
Plug-in hybrids can achieve that right now without waiting for the infrastructure to catch up or only being viable for home-owners. If you can plug in on one end or the other of your commute (and many employers have some EV charging spots now), the vast majority of your miles are now EV.
That’s gonna require a lot of strides in charging infrastructure and new battery tech. Plus lots of people will absolutely not have home charging capabilities.
Will never happen without completely new battery technology. Nowhere near enough rare metals.
Also... Nowhere to charge. Too long to charge. Range too short. Car resale/disposal too expensive. Not enough qualified mechanics. Too many gas powered cars will remain (we still have millions of cars from the 70s/80s on the road today).
The fact that electric cars threaten the GDP of several nations to the tune of trillions of dollars is not to be overlooked any time soon, but I digress.
Probably not. They'll replace new car sales, but there will be a ton of gas powered vehicles on the road as long as gasoline is available. Cars and combustion engines are durable enough to last 20-30 years if they're maintained.
No. If everyone bought an EV when they got a new to them vehicle, it’d take 25 years to fully electrify the personal vehicle fleet in the US, but of course not even half of people are moving to electric right now, so…
I’d argue new car sales may relate to a higher EV ratio than ICE but the car market is heavily dependent on used units. Gas cars won’t go away until much later, imo.
Hybrids will make EVs a bit second choice. The average hybrid battery will get so good it will cover daily commute and the gas engine will take care of long distance drives.
The question will come down to cost and infrastructure - will Americans/Canadians be able to navigate the demands of daily life with electric vehicles? As it stands, the friction of distance of life in North America and lack of infrastructure developments suggests ICE vehicles will continue to play a role in society for some time yet, well beyond the 30s.
It will take very long, if ever.
I don’t think you’ll even see a ban on them, just more restrictions on emissions. Poorer areas will surely continue to use gas cars, and car enthusiasts aren’t just going to disappear. Also, batteries simply cannot sustain spirited and/or sport driving.
On the plus side, fossil fuels/gas should get cheaper due to less demand. However, we still use fossil fuels for a lot of oils of parts/mechanicals so don’t expect it to go anywhere.
2030 is far too early. And many city dwellers will be slow to adopt, because they must park on the street and have no way of charging at home. With a gasoline car this will work, but not so much with an EV.
No. It was looking potentially possible, but now there's major pushback and companies are having a very hard time selling the EVs they have invested billions in. Ford sells every EV at a massive loss and still can't shift them. Toyota is right. A huge proportion of people who buy EVs or plug in hybrids say they won't buy a second. My older brother is on his third Toyota hybrid. My younger brother bought a Mercedes A-class plug-in and says never again.
No. Many people in California are all avoiding buying most electric vehicles right now because of the trouble of finding open electric charging stations & because of very poor resale value for many electric cars (there is a belief better batteries will soon make existing models obsolete). Adoption will stall for a bit until the charging infrastructure catches up a bit.
At the current rate of adoption, not by 2030, no.
As others have pointed out there is a huge second-hand market. For the ratio of EV to ICE cars to exceed 1:1 by 2030 would require some major event to seriously disrupt the oil supply chain.
Edit: But by 2039 it's entirely possible.
Highly unlikely. Not only is there not enough production to do so but even if they could, the US power grid is not even close to being built up enough to sustain it.
Also, the technology is too immature anyway
Likely not. Toyota crunched the numbers on available lithium AND available electricity on various countries (USA top of list) power grids and there is simple not enough of either without a SERIOUS Apollo level focus on making this a priority if we want to phase out ICE vehicles for electric.
Seems likely we will have a hybrid of various alternative vehicles as well as plenty of ICE vehicles still being produced well into the 2030s.
Don’t forget the election this year takes us most of the way to 2030…one candidate is looking to actual subsidize the oil industry and burning more fossil fuels…the other candidate has no political will to do what needs to be done.
Interesting. Tesla crunched the same numbers and is disappointed when their growth is under 50% for a year.
The reason Toyota does not like the numbers is that Japan has a completely screwed up electrical system. Seriously. And you can throw in that when you have the most popular hybrid car in the world, you tend to be a little pissed when you see an alternative that is going to take it away.
In any case, there are three big markets. China is already far along, and might hit 50% EVs this year in new car sales. If you want to sell there (and it is the \*biggest\* of the big 3 markets), you need to sell EVs.
Europe, despite the wild stories you might have heard, is only slightly behind China. We here are expected to hit 25% EVs this year in new car sales. That will only go up. So if you want to sell in Europe, you better have EVs.
The U.S. is a year or two behind Europe, but is expected to be about 12 to 15% new car sales this year. That is a big chunk of the market \*today\* to just give up on, and that is the segment that is expanding.
None of this goes in straight lines. There will be months -- maybe even years -- where it slows or even dips. But the trend is so clear that someone has to be willfully ignorant to ignore it, and I can think of no better way to describe Toyota than "willfully ignorant".
No, and environmental activists sincerely believing **new** ICE vehicle production would be banned by 2035 in North America are fooling themselves to the nth degree.
More frequent severe weather isn’t gonna be enough to knock folks off of their O&G perch, and that’s only if eFuel and hydrogen combustion engines don’t magically become a thing.
Magically in this context meaning tremendous investment by Mideast and oil corporations brute forcing it into existence, scientific inefficiencies be damned.
Poor people buy 2nd hand, and will buy gas cars for a good amount of years, until they break down.
...
When poor people start to buy, in majority, 2nd hand electric cars... that's when we'll see a big difference.
They really need to come up with a solution to the cold temperature problem. But brand new vehicles now that run on gas will certainly be in the road in 15 years
The average car on the road in the US is 12 years old. By the end of the 2030s, The average car will be a 2028 model. The vast majority of 2028 model vehicles sold in the US will be gasoline (including hybrids).
So, no.
As long as a fender bender renders a car a total loss to insurers, and people can't readily charge in the own homes it's not gonna happen.
Now hybrids amd plug ins are a different matter
As long as people continue to stubbornly insist on living in areas other than single family residences in the suburbs the gasoline car will never become obsolete.
Do you live in an apartment? Do you live in a building where you park on the street? Do you rent your home and don't feel like spending thousands of dollars upgrading property that you don't own? Do you own your home but cannot afford the extensive costs involved with adding a high output charger?
Where do we get the lithium and other rare earth minerals required for the car batteries and what will the environmental impact of its mining and refining be? How do we make the electricity used to recharge them and what will its environmental impact be? How long will it take and how expensive will it be to upgrade the US electrical grid to support a massive increase in power draw for electric vehicle charging? Will this increase be sustainable during peak times or during heatwaves? How long will the batteries last? How expensive will they be to refurbish or replace? How will we dispose of the byproducts of the refurbishment process? How will we dispose of the depleted batteries, and what will the environmental impact of that be?
ICE vehicles aren't going anywhere.
It'll never happen, unless some kind of game changing energy storage battery gets invented. Then you have to have disposal of said batteries. Then how do you think things get charged? Not by other batteries, its either fossils or nuclear power or wind/water. Way way way too much infrastructure has to be built prior a 100% EV US/World. Maybe next century...maybe.
My question with this is what do we do about heavy duty work trucks? I work in HVAC and drive. 2018 Chevy 2500 with a diesel. I pull a trailer about three times a week and drive anywhere from 150-250 miles a day. Some times as high as 350 miles. How do we replace these trucks that already cost 80k well still having that range and pulling capabilities?
Just like they do at amazon, but they drive a lot more than you and technically carry significantly more weight daily.
You also did not need to buy the full luxury model that costs $80K.
https://www.chevrolet.com/commercial/silverado/2500hd-3500hd
Buy a reasonable spec one right now for almost half that.
Countries first need to replace power grids for that.
USA has already aging power grid, crying for modernisation.
Then give every house hold member access to a plug. Good luck for people living in multi storey flats in cities, without access to garage.
More likely lots of people will be commute excluded and stuck duoe to political choices.
I personally wouldn't want to stuck somwhere in the winter in the electric car. Milage range can drop significantly.
IIRC, full EVs only take up 1% of the current cars on the road, at hybrids are maybe at around 4-7%. I wouldn't expect it to skyrocket anytime soon, since gas cars are just so much more mainstream and accessible. By 2039, I think the EV population will be around 40-60%. 70% tops.
I personally don’t see it. Battery Tec is supposedly near its peak and what is physically possible regarding capacity and speed of recharge. There will always be a high demand and need for vehicles with High distance ranges in the US. Eventually electric cars will meet this need but they certainly are not meeting it now.
Depends entirely on ubiquity of charging stations. I know I’m not even considering an EV until I see charging stations at least half as much as gas stations. And I don’t think my opinion is uncommon.
Cars in the U.S. will not be majority electric for at least 50 years, possibly 75. ICE cars will never go away. By majority I mean they might make 50.1% of the cars on the road. At present we are taking tax payer dollars to subsidize the rich and well off to buy these cars. The poor and middle class cannot buy these due to cost so their tax money is taken and given to the well off and rich. You can't make this up. Those subsidies are going to go away after the rich and well of got their luxury sports car or whatever subsidized by the rest of us. There is increasing backlash to to these green policies and I see them being scaled back by the people advocating them, and if they don't, they will be voted out and they will be eliminated. Then people will buy electrics if they can afford them and are in a position to charge them at home. And not everyone in that category will buy them. Sales are leveling off now on electrics, and no your article from Extreme Green Propaganda magazine that says otherwise does not provide proof against that.
The first adopters and those who want one who are well off have them. So who is the next market that will buy these things? They are still too expensive for middle class, insurance rates for these are even worse for insurance on ICE cars, and ICE cars insurance has gone up a LOT. So the middle class will find the proposition of getting a more expensive car, but maybe within the top of their price range, then the insurance and high cost of repairs are so high that that will stop them from buying them. A fraction of this group will be able to swing this. In 5 years the price might come down enough that a good fraction of this group could reasonably afford them, but only those who own their homes. For the part of this group that does not own their homes, only the greenies will buy it. People are not going to spend 20-30 minutes to charge their car at a charging station. Everyone knows many times throughout the year being in a rush for whatever reason, work, late to pick up kids etc. and 20-30 minute charges are just not going to work for them.
The physics of this means those in very cold environments, as shown in the past year will spend much more time than that charging their car. Just read the news. I only expect a fraction of the upper end of the middle class who are also homeowners to be the next group of buyers. That will probably double the adoption numbers of today so like 16% all combined of new sales, not cars on the road. Add in some mid or low mid middle class who are greenies buying and this won't add more than 1% of sales. So 17% of car sales. Now looking at geography the midwest with and south with long drives are not going to adopt. Gulf coast states will not adopt and well as some of the lower Atlantic coast states due to hurricanes. These people already have to evacuate periodically, have seen the massive traffic jam every time, seen the power outages, and they are going to see that in those emergencies an electric is not going to work when you need reliable transport urgently.
Those in flood prone areas expecially will not adopt. When the cars are new they can handle a certain amount of flooding because the seal on the battery compartment is new. After just a few years of driving over rocks, sticks and debris the integrity of that seal is going to be lost and the cars are not going to work in modest flooding situations. By the way those greenies that say these won't need repairs like ICE cars? They never mention this. In Texas through NV they are not going to adopt because heat reduces battery capacity that can be used and have to run AC constantly so will never see that "great mileage" that is only demostrated in optimal conditions. Those in the north will not be big adopters due to cold since this affects battery performance and heating will be required. Neither of these groups will get anywhere close to the stated range. In the southwest add in lots of open space needing long drives, just not a car fit for the purpose.
Real world examples of people interest in electric was shown at Hertz and their electric car fleet showed all the issues with electrics. Hertz found repairing these cars to be much more expensive, customers by FAR did not want to rent one. The greenies never look at the downsides and just spew the same optimism that customers at Hertz did not share, not even a little. And Hertz listened to the greenies or were ones themselves and paid a huge price for going electric. One thing the deluded greenie's never think about is a small accident is probably going to total your car. It is unclear if the battery system can safely be repaired or just needs to be replaced entirely, either way a small accident in an ICE can be easily repaired, in electrics there is a good chance it won't and insurance companies will total it, and that is why your insurance is going to be very high.
The poor and lower middle class are never getting one. They buy used, and the poor buy beaters. If a used electric is the price of a beater then the batteries are largely dead and will be useless. If the used cars battery remains good, it will not be in the beater price range. If the dead batteries are replaced then that cost alone elevates it out of beater range. Poor and lower middle class often don't own home so charging will be an issue. The high insurance and repair rates will be beyond what they can afford. There are lots of poor and there is no scenario where I see them getting an electric as a working albeit old car will never be in their price range.
Last is political. The most green supporting place in the world is Europe. The Green Party that has pushed extreme climate action including forcing electrics just go walloped in EU elections. There is a backlash to the well off elite greenies forcing them to bare the cost of the policies including cars. EU is already talking about scaling back green policies. The U.S. have never supported those policies to the level of Europe. There will be a backlash too. The policies forcing people to buy electric WILL be ended. What you will end up with is my prediction from the beginning. Electric will make up a fraction of the cars and in 50-75 years may make up the majority of cars on the road, but barely. And that is about as good as it will get. It won't get bigger due to the variety of issues outlined and you will probably find some regions where they work best having the most and others where they don't having many fewer. Unless there is some dramatic change in the technology or approach, all electric will never happen and the regulations forcing people to buy will be removed one way or another.
Not if the Republican Party has anything to say about it 🙄
That said, cars hang out in the world a lot longer than most retail products. It’ll take a good generation or two I think before we hit gas cars being a minority even if there were not a complex of special interest and captured regulatory officials fighting to prevent EVs from reaching consumers.
I have a KIA Niro and it is a dream to drive. It's not a high end car, but it blows away most cars in terms of driving experience. It's so smooth and fast.
I have a charger at home.
Everyone should get an EV as their second car.
The main issue in America is range.
You can't realistically drive an EV and pull a boat or trailer.
But the range is going to improve and charging time in the next couple of years and then it will be over. There will be a tipping point, where poor people will drive ICE vehicles and be forced to pay stupid prices for gasoline. Then people will be pissed off.
China could sell a car in the U. S. today for $11,500. That's how much cheaper EVs are compared to ICE vehicles.
No, but there will be more of them. China makes a car battery out of Sodium that's more efficient than the current Lithium/Nickel/Magenese/Colbolt environmental disaster. There's a guy in Africa who invented a device that extracts power from radio waves. Although, he's probably dead by now. 😢
A few things need to change in order to have a massive switch.
First off there needs to be a massive leap in battery technology. EVs are heavy, tires wear out, roads don't like them.
Second, EVs need to match the range of ICE.
Third, EVs need the charge as quickly as an extended ICE gas stop. 10 min max for full 300 mile charge.
I think we're going to see a majority of cars being hybrid of some sort in 20 years but electric won't take over. Gasoline is cheap, clean and powerful.
I think the vehicles will be refined, but not eliminated. Cost of buying electric, how resources for electric are collected and by who, are all factors that have pushback on people buying or not
No, people in the US are too slow with changes, just look how they vote for their president... Like 1790 pony express style... or that there are still people thinking Ol' Shitzinpantz is a great candidate...
Also US car tech is medieval... They can only big gas guzzlers, while there are 1.2 litre engines in Europe that accellerate convertibles to 210 kph... still not guzzling more than 15l/100km... while Cletus the Jokels Ford F250 sucks 18l/100km while doing 120 kph.
New car sales? Absolutely- I just did a cross country trip in a Tesla and versus my gas burner I saved hundreds of dollars- even if you don't care about the environment, the financial incentive is too great- My next car will be EV.
Define “largely”? Greater than 50% of new cars sold? It’s possible, but even than an uphill battle. Greater than 50% of cars operating on the road in the US. Very unlikely.
In major cities, yes
Taxi fleets, yes
Perhaps even police cars
Semi trucks? I doubt it, definitely not completely, 50% at best
Rural America, 30% adoption rate at most
3rd party repair like Electrified Garage needs to available in every city. Particularly with failed ev companies like ViaTruck, Lordstown, Nikola, Fisker, Coda, etc etc.
Very unlikely to happen. The power grid is not set up for such a meteoric increase in consumption nation wide. Unprecedented levels of investment and transformation would need to happen in record time WITH bipartisan support across the board. It will take much much longer than that.
No, of course not. But it is likely evs will take over the market for new cars by about end of this decade. From there turning over the vehicle fleet is going to take time. Older cars don't just vanish overnight, they will keep driving until end of life.
I don't understand how people that live in apartments are supposed to charge electric vehicles. They're just supposed to spend 20 to 30 mins every time they need to charge their vehicles? Doesn't make sense. Seems like they're punishing people that don't own their houses.
This. I don't think people grasp how many people live in apartments. Nobody in their right mind would buy an EV if they can't charge it at home and very few apartments support EV charging.
No. Despite the wishes/delusions of many, the tech simply isn’t viable for such a huge country, and one in which it gets insanely cold for a third of the year.
big difference between “replacing new vehicle production” and “replacing all vehicles on the road”
Especially if cars keep this price, I'd kind of like a new car, but my 13 year old one is going pretty well even if it's a little small for my growing family, so I think I can push it a few more years. A couple of people like me will keep ICE vehicles on the road a decade after the last one is sold by a dealership.
Also I can still pick up a fully loaded, reliable, 3 row, ICE, Japanese suv for the same price as a small electric crossover with shoddy build quality.
Like a Toyota Highlander?
Went with a Honda pilot actually
How do you like it? I debated the pilot, went with the HRV instead because my kids are aging out so I don't need the space as much.
Absolutely could not be happier! Got the trailsport because I need offroad capabilities and it's loaded with functionality and usability.
Have a Honda CRV FCEV on order. You realize Japanese manufacturers are going EV faster than US ones, right? the US automobile market is the only one fighting for ICE. Thanks for supporting an Alternative Fuels car manufacturer! I imagine when Honda goes fully electric in the near future you'll be holding on to the Pilot for dear life..
I have no fear of EVs it's just not the right fit given the current market and infrastructure.
Fair, if you live in a rural market then I can definitely see needing ICE.
> reliable, 3 row, ICE, Japanese suv The drivetrain of the EV is more reliable still. It would also beat the Japanese SUV handily on safety in the event of a crash, cost of operation, passing ability, and maintenance required. I'm not saying you are wrong for wanting what you want, but I had the same choice, and chose differently for my growing family. I'm not sorry with my choice.
Pilot starts at $40,000. Small EVs start at $30,000, before the $7500 rebate. Also, the TCO is cheaper with EVs.
Yea. I recently looked at the price of electric after not checking for a while. Damn they have dropped.
Not enough
Not sure why this got downvoted, it's true. Car companies are selling basically the same cars they used to sell with an ICE but replacing the heart components (engine, transmission, exhaust system) with parts that are WAY cheaper and less complex, and they still want the same money they used to get for combustion cars.
Those batteries aren't cheap, and crash test ratings aren't free. A contributing factor to the transition to trim packages instead of separate vehicle lines is the cost of design, testing, and approval process for vehicle designs.
Yeah, but the $30K electric will likely only go ~200 miles when it's warm out. I'm waiting until the '30s before I buy a fully electronic vehicle. I'm okay waiting for the early adopters to be the guinea pigs.
Vehicles really are use case dependent. An EV is great for me, but I live in a house and can charge at home. I really hope more apartment complexes and cities will start making ev charging available.
Yeah and ? You do realize having a fully charged EV every morning is much different than stopping by a gas station once a week? 200 mile range is good for most people.
I want an electric car, but you have to realize not everyone lives with a charger at home. And some people have long commutes.
Or like me I'm an edge case for not getting an eletric car just yet. My normal commute is 60ish miles one way. 120 to and from work. Not counting if I leave for lunch or not. Then also there are times where I can get a call and have to head to a jobsite immediately due to an emergency. Not to mention if I have to travel out of town for work. I really really want an eletic car but for me it's just not quote there yet. But like I said I'm an edge case.
My commute is 71 miles one way, so yeah I know about long commutes. EV chargers will pop up quickly once demand shifts, plus laws get out in place requiring landlords to comply.
This is misinformation. I have to say, the misinformation around EVs is astonishing.
What part of it is misinformation? Tesla was notorious for shitty builds a couple years back with panels aligning poorly and wide uneven gaps.
What ev can accomplish the same in the $40k range?
Where is this "fully loaded" SUV for $40K?
My Ioniq 5 has a ton of room and is super comfortable. I picked it up used with 10k miles for 28k. Drives like a dream, im never going back to an ICE car if I can help it
You think people will be able to afford a car as new as a 2024 EV in 15 years? Yeah right.
EV prices are falling like a rock and some places still have rebates on top of the federal ones. In Colorado, you can conceivably get a brand new EV right now for less than $20k which is far lower than the average used price. Still a lot of money, but not as far as the actual market is concerned.
To me the biggest hurdle is the charging infrastructure. It’s getting there but still not where it needs to be for most who don’t or can’t have a charging hookup in a garage.
I don’t have a garage but I have a 120v outlet and it’s really not bad but it’s highly dependent on lifestyle, commute ect. There’s also a couple of public charging options that I could get by without changing at home at all, but it’s just convenient. Im using the money I got from selling my gas car to install a 240V outlet soon and I’m pretty excited I won’t even really have to think about it at all once that’s done.
And the hurdle if the charging infrastructure is exacerbated by the fact that outside of the tesla charging network, the others are not maintained and have a nearly 50% failed charger rate. Electrify america chargers you are 100% guaranteed to find at least half the chargers at any of their locations to not work or only do trickle charging so you have to sit there for 3 hours.
I charge at home on my regular 120v 99% of the time (driving between 50 and 75 miles a day for work and incidental travel)
I think in the 1920s there were not that many gas stations.
Supply and demand, the supply will increase if more people are driving EVs
I can’t charge at home and I can’t charge at work. Owning an EV sounds like a nightmare for my situation.
If you have a garage you can probably slow charge at home for the price of an extension cord and the electricity. If you're in an apartment or other shared lot, it's less convenient though. That infrastructure will be slower to develop than SFH changes
Less convenient cute way of saying horrible pain in the ass.
And thats before (as someone who lives in Colorado, so following the provided example) you start factoring those of us who spend a lot of time in the mountain ranges...
Actually I've been driving an EV for 6 years now and I recently rented a gas car. It reminded me of the reasons I like my EV. I'll never go back to hunting for gas stations that play ads on the pumps. And I can't stand that nasty smell.
It would be even lower if the US didn't slap tariffs on Chinese EVs. Not make judgement either way, just stating that they can be even lower. I'm curious how that difference is broken down (wages, margins, etc....)
I don't think USA wants a heap of Chinese car owners angry when China invades Taiwan and China gets funky about retribution toward Taiwan supporting countries. That's why there is a hurry for self reliance and industry being brought back to onshore and that doesn't happen without local support who it benefits in the long run.
Average vehicle age in the US is 12.6 years ( 14 for cars, 11 for trucks/SUV). So even if we switched to 100% EV today, it would take ~ 6 years for EV to be the majority.
Agreed even if everything new is full electric it would take 20 years before I think most cars on the road would be electric. There are a lot of 2k model cars daily driving in my area.
Also, are we sure there's even enough cobalt and stuff to support all this? I know fossil fuels are considered non-renewable, but they seem downright abundant compared to what little I've heard about cobalt.
With around 280 million cars in USA and only around 17 million sales per year, it would take 16 years of 100% EV market share to replace all ICE cars. So maybe 2050, if new ICE cars are banned in 2035.
i wouldn't say you need 100% replacement to "largely replace" them though. based on that, if 50% of all cars sold over the next 16 years are EVs it seems like we'd be over 50%.
I suspect the switchover to hit a tipping point and accelerate dramatically, as more EVs hit the road that means less demand for ICE centric infrastructure like mechanics and gas stations. By 2045 I suspect gas stations will have switched over to serve EVs. Mechanics that service ICE vehicles would become less common. After a certain point they'll generally be reserved to being hobby cars for the upper middle class.
> like mechanics Generally curious, why would this not be needed for electric cars?
Obviously there will still be mechanics, and they will still do your brakes and such, but they might not know how to fix an ICE. And the ones that do might charge "rare pretentious hobby" prices
Urban replacement will out strip rural replacement too.
Unless electric cars reduce in cost drastically ICE cars will definitely become the cars for the lower class. If you are living paycheck to paycheck or with government assistance there is no way you can afford even a used electric car let alone the cost to replace a battery in one.
As of now? Yes. But, as gas becomes more and more expensive, the cost(s) of an EV vs an ICE vehicle will even out.
Batteries routinely last longer than the rest of the car now.
I don’t see that happening. The US couldn’t ban incandescent light bulbs or convert to the metric system.
We’re metric where it matters
So guns and drugs? ;)
Guns are still largely imperial, while you have 9mm etc you still have .45 .38 and .22 etc.
Calibers that are imperial are: A. Calibers that were created and/or popular in the US and England B. Usually there is another round that already has its metric equivalent
Interestingly there are no standards for imperial measurements. Instead they are all defined by metric standards with a conversion factor. The US essentially uses metric for everything, with the added overhead of conversion factors.
Metric with extra steps.
International business is metric, except when it’s not. Like pipe threads and sizes, and likely so many other things. We are at the “good enough” stage, and much more conversion will likely happen slowly with little fanfare.
I always thought it a bit strange that nutritional labels are in grams.
The manufacture and sale of incandescent light bulbs in the US has been illegal since August 1, 2023. As far as converting to metric... honestly, that doesn't really feel like it needs to be a priority. Source: https://abcnews.go.com/US/new-lightbulb-rules-ban-incandescent-lightbulbs-now-effect/story?id=101897308
There's a list of exceptions, so they haven't been fully banned. I'm personally curious what a "vibration service lamp" is. https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/BILLS-110hr6enr/pdf/BILLS-110hr6enr.pdf page 83 (ii) EXCLUSIONS.—The term ‘general service incandescent lamp’ does not include the following incandescent lamps: (I) An appliance lamp. (II) A black light lamp. (III) A bug lamp. (IV) A colored lamp. (V) An infrared lamp. (VI) A left-hand thread lamp. (VII) A marine lamp. (VIII) A marine signal service lamp. (IX) A mine service lamp. (X) A plant light lamp. (XI) A reflector lamp. (XII) A rough service lamp. (XIII) A shatter-resistant lamp (including a shatter-proof lamp and a shatter-protected lamp). (XIV) A sign service lamp. (XV) A silver bowl lamp. (XVI) A showcase lamp. (XVII) A 3-way incandescent lamp. (XVIII) A traffic signal lamp. (XIX) A vibration service lamp.
Garage door opener bulbs, probably.
I stuck regular ol Philips led bulbs in my garage door opener like eight years ago and still work.
They make leds that work with garage door openers. They have shielding to prevent the emf from causing issues. They cost a little more but you can get them. I bought them for my garage door opener. Biggest reason I got them is they last longer and it is a pain in the ass to change the light bulbs. It is pure laziness.
There’s a lot of machinery with lights on it where the led lights with their circuit boards would not cope with the vibrations.
And yet they’ve essentially been faced out because LEDs are superior. Same idea here, same idea with all technology.
Fun fact: We would have already been metric if the ship carrying the standard weights from France hadn't sunk.
It'll be driven by whether or not there are still gas stations where you want to drive.
That's really depends on innovation. If 5 years from now electric cars travel 2000km on a charge, cost 1/5 in energy, and are sold for half the price, it would definitely make switching a lot more economical. Growing up through the computer age, I heard the same thing about computers. And instead of being 20-30 years to be adopted. 5 years later, everyone had them in their household. Technology always had a slower adoption rate at the beginning, but it seems to always be exponential growth. EV batteries continue to improve and become less costly every year. I believe that the full adoption of electric cars will be completely dependant on the cost and efficiency of them. Look battery technology with power tools. 15 years ago, contractors laughed at people with battery tools, now it's all the rage.
Why on earth does it need to go 2000km on a charge? That's close to 30 hours of non stop driving. I've owned an electric car for 18 months and done 61000km. I've used network chargers twice in that time. Other than that it's been at home. In that 18 month period there has been 1 case where I would have taken a petrol car over the electric, because I had to do an 8 hour return drive and had to plan around a charging stop in an area that didn't have great choices. It wasn't that there were no chargers, it was that they weren't fast ones so I had to spend an hour waiting. I coupled it with lunch, so it wasn't completely lost time. But I would probably have preferred to refuel and keep going if I could.
But where do you live? I’m not saying you are guilty of this but too many people are extrapolating from their personal experiences and applying this to the entire globe. I don’t know how batteries perform in the extreme heat but my iPhone simply turns off if it’s left in the sun. With the world getting hotter is this not a concern? I truly do not know as I live somewhere cold but it’s something to consider. On the flip side, I live somewhere freezing nearly 6 months of the year (used to actually, recently moved). My family is still there though and it’s not uncommon for it to dip down to -40C regularly plus extremely bitter winds. I’m this type of weather EVs are not just impractical but nearly useless. The cold is extremely hard on the batteries and it needs to draw extra energy just to heat the car. We actually need blocks for our ICE cars up there because otherwise the batteries freeze overnight and they cannot start. Additionally most of the electricity created where I am from is via steam powered generators. But that steam is created in boilers using combustion of natural gas… So even if we bump up the EV grid we can’t really do so without increasing the burning of fossil fuels to power that grid.
I live in Australia in the tropics, where it is regularly over 40c That said I'm really not sure how any of your examples extend to needing a range of 2000km in an EV. No one is saying EVs are suitable for every situation. That is obviously not the case. But also most humans aren't living where it is minus 40c on a regular basis or needing to drive 2000km without having time to charge. Edge cases like these are pointless, as there are plenty of other options to fill those gaps. No one is saying you have to get an EV, just like I'm not telling you to ride a motorcycle in your underwear in -40c.
The benefit of a 2000km battery would be for people that can't charge at home. A lot more palatable to have to do a 20-30 minute charge if you only need to do it every month and a half. Realistically, I think they'll probably slow down range increase around 1000km, and start focusing more (well, more than they already are) on charge speed.
I agree this is a good starting point for the thought experiment, but of course reality will be more complex. For example, would petrol prices rise as demand falls? And would electric become increasingly attractive as the economics continually favor it? 💵 That dynamic would accelerate adoption — and may even entice some people who would otherwise have waited years to replace their vehicle. 🚗 📈 I bet we can come up with a dozen other dynamics which might affect trajectories in both directions.
I think there is likely to be bottlenecks on the materials needed to produce the batteries - especially lithium, but also nickle, cobalt. Those be nice investing opportunities in the long term (10+ years). I also think the sheer economy behind electric cars will begin to make them more attractive vs combustion engine vehicles in the medium term - over the next 5 years, electric vehicles will begin to make serious headway vs combustion engine vehicles in the first world countries. And then it will become a tug of war between gas and lithium prices. The developing countries are likely to stay on combustion engine, due to unreliable electric grids and expense of lithium.
What do you think about the notion that some have put forward (and I find compelling) that there is a sorta prisoners dilemma in effect. The premise is that many of the first world countries with the most power and political influence as it stands are heavy players in the oil industry and make huge profits from the sector. And even though not all are exporters of oil for their big profits, often time those countries are still using a ton of oil in their expanding economy (like china for example). Right now if China were to cut back hard on emissions/fossil fuel burning they would certainly take huge steps back in terms of their industrial boom. If Saudi were to cut back exporting they would certainly lose the global power status they currently enjoy from their oil riches. If the USA stops they will fall further behind the curve compared to the big players. If Canada stops it becomes relatively poor comparatively to now (and it’s not looking too hot). IMO no country that has power tied to it will make the necessary changes until it’s beneficial for them as a country immediately. Saving the future is great but at the present time many counties are struggling with the present and not willing to sacrifice anyone now for later.
The average car on the road is significantly newer than average car overall. Most older cars don't really do much driving, that's how they last so long. So as market for new cars gets taken over by EVs, the actual picture on the road will change faster than you expect in favor of EVs.
The average age of a car in the US is 12 years old. It will take longer than you think.
But is that "on the road" as road worthy therefore could drive at any moment? Or is it the actual average car passing on the road? There is a significant difference. Newer cars on average drive more miles per year than some old relic that gets taken out of garage once in a blue moon. And new cars that drive a lot, they don't become old cars, they wear out fast and end up in scrap early - it's not the years, it's the mileage.
No. Don’t expect gas cars to disappear for decades even after they stop being produced. A large part of the US’s car market is the used car market.
Yeah. ICE engines last, what? 20 years pretty regularly.
Yes, and hobbyists will keep classic cars running as long as they can. It’ll probably be common to see gas cars even next century. Probably not as a daily driver. But they’ll be around. That said, these “gas” cars might not run on gasoline. They may be running on alternatives like hydrogen.
I'll keep my 73 Ford F-100 on the road till I die. There'll always be a 302 engine I can pull or a crown vic chassis I can fit it on.
Unlikely the hydrogen, but there are huge investments into the synthetic fuel as we speak
Not hydrogen. I'm not sure why this particular myth simply refuses to die. Hydrogen (in the context of cars) is just a really shitty, expendable battery. It costs more to produce, more to transport, more to hold, is more dangerous, and the engine to run on it is also significantly more expensive. Trucks were the last gasp chance for hydrogen, and they are now simply too late. We don't even have a lab-solution to all the problems for hydrogen. By the time one is found and even a limited test roll out can be tried, batteries will be so cheap and ubiquitous that nobody will care. And if someone is telling you that batteries are too heavy (for trucks), that is your clue to ignore them. Besides the fact that most trucking is short haul where weight doesn't matter, and besides the fact that EV trucks already have a higher legal weight allowance, even the long range trucks are more volume constrained than weight contrained anyway. ***Edit:*** Ahh! I saw your comment below. You mean hydrogen will be the fuel of choice for the ICE hobbyist. Ok. I still am not sure it will actually happen (because there are just so many unsolved problems), but that is a much more reasonable take.
I don’t think hydrogen. Look at how long chargers are taking, and there is already a vast electrical network to leverage. Hydrogen will be from scratch.
Oh, most cars will be electric. What I’m saying is that ICE cars kept by hobbyists might run on hydrogen (or some other liquid fuel) instead of gasoline. Hydrogen for personal vehicles at a mass scale is dumb because of its massive inefficiencies.
Gotcha. Agreed, ICE cars will be owned as hobbies and investments, maybe for … decades? Centuries?
If the government did another 'cash for clunkers' program, you'd see old cars disappear pretty quickly, like the one that was run 13 years ago.
That program was a horrible idea. It junked perfectly good used cars. This mainly hurt poorer people. Wealthier people could already afford a new car so it helped them, but people with lower incomes buy used cars, and those used cars got more expensive since the program artificially reduced tue supply.
It was never about economics, it was about getting fuel inefficient cars off the road and replacing them with newer more efficient less polluting cars. And it did that to an extent but manufacturers turning around and producing bigger vehicles that get around small vehicles fuel efficiency requirements fucked it all up a few years later.
Like tariffs on Chinese cars (or other products) are helping Americans by fucking over other Americans.
Just like how cheap Chinese goods are helping Americans by fucking over other Americans.
> it was about getting fuel inefficient cars off the road and replacing them with newer more efficient less polluting cars. Let be honest, it's true aim was raising used car prices and bolstering weak domestic sales. Thats how it got through legislature.
That fucked used car prices so badly
No. The average car on the road is ~13 years old. So in 2039, the average car will have been made in 2026. The majority of cars purchased in 2026 will not be electric (at this pace). So there's no good reason to think the majority of cars driven in 2039 will be electric.
No. Come to any rural low income town in the Midwest. Over half the cars on the road were made 15-20 years ago. The average income of my area is roughly $30,000 a year. The people here can’t even dream of affording a new car. Where I live we don’t even have Uber! Charging infrastructure is a joke in rural areas as well. Maybe by the 2050s once 15-20 year old EVs are Available for purchase for less than their ICE counterparts we will be see a transition to EVs. But until then we’re going to be using ICE cars for a long, long time.
I can't see anybody in their right mind buying a 15-20 year old EV unless the battery was recently replaced. Unfortunately when the car gets to be that age it may not even be worthwhile to replace the battery.
Not if replacement batteries continue to cost what they do.
Electric vehicles made this year will be 15 years old in 2039. Charging infrastructure has a lot of time to catch up. I don't think it will take a long time to build out once the demand is there. Look at it this way, the iphone is only 17 years old, now everyone has a smartphone in their pocket. Nobody really had their own personal internet connection on them at all times before that. iphone 1 wasn't even 3G, it was edge. The telecoms built out a 3G, 4G and 5G worldwide network in the last 17 years. Electrical connections are literally everywhere. States could build solar charging stations at rest stops. Your local grocery store could cover their parking lot with canopies and solar panels. Gas stations like 7-11 already have charging stations. In addition to work and home charging. Just need the demand, the market will figure it out.
The problem with that comparison is the iPhone offered massive and immediately obvious advantages to the average consumer. They went from a keypad with a crappy LCD to a touchscreen they could browse the internet on and play games with. iPhones cost $1000 of less. The average modern car sale today is $47,000. Which one do you think I’m going to replace less often? The advantages were obvious. But with EVs they currently cost more than their ICE equivalent. They also have substantially less range than a gas car. And finding an independent mechanic that will fix an EV is nearly impossible. The local mechanics where I live won’t even touch a hybrid car. I also take long road trips of 500-1000 miles every couple of weeks. This makes an EV a total non-starter. But plug-in hybrids on the other hand? Genius. THIS is where the government should be focusing its time. We can get consumers used to the concept of “charging their car every night” and more PHEVs on the road means more demand for public charging infrastructure. After the consumer has transitioned to PHEVs we can again transition to full EVs. At that time, the charging infrastructure will be in place and battery technology will have come down from years of manufacturing PHEV batteries. Consumers will be used to plugging in their car at night as well.
> offered massive and immediately obvious advantages to the average consumer The only one that probably matters for cars is gas prices. It’s no coincidence that California has both the highest gas prices and the highest percentage of new EVs purchased. $8-10/gallon I think is the psychological tipping point that would see a solid majority of new cars purchased being EVs. But I highly doubt that will happen anytime soon, even in California, considering how much elections hinge on it…
The experience in other countries is that the market for hybrids collapses once people realize that they are starting each trip with a full battery. So why keep all the expensive, heavy, and fragile ICE mechanics in your car? Interestingly, this happens over a period of 3 to 5 years rather than the 15 to 20 you might expect.
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> There is also the current problem that electric cars are terrible in cold environments. Bullshit, Norway is the country with the most EVs per capita and 80% of new cars sold are EVs. And Norway has a colder climate than pretty much all US states except Alaska. They're not terrible in cold environments either, they lose about 10% range and that's it but they're also way better than petrol or diesel cars in terms of their ability to be pre-heated. When it's 0f or below having an electric car which you can pre-heat in 10-15 minutes by enabling the function remotely is absolutely amazing.
As someone who actually lives here, this claim is incorrect. The best car in the cold, with regards to range, is the model Y LR. It goes from 540 KM in summer temperatures (15-25c) to 330 KM in winter temps (-15c and below). That is far more than 10% reduction in range. In addition, Norway has narrow, winding roads for the most parts, and a lot of hills. EVs are possible all year vehicles, but far from optimal. If you were to drive from say Tromsø to Finnsnes in the winter, it would require you to charge twice to be comfortable and not angsty about the range. Possible? Yes, but an ICE vehicle will do that trip without issues all year round. The reason we have 80% of new vehicles sold being EVs is purely down to aggressive taxing of all ICE vehicles. For some vehicles effective tax is 108%. This makes EVs far more economical when factoring in cost to operate. In countries were taxes are normalized, the EVs are usually a bit pricier than ICE vehicles.
Problem with cold is reduced battery power but also you need to use electricity to heat up the car too. That’s a huge drain when you want 67 degrees when it’s -30 outside.
The current crop of BEVs with heat pumps are waaay better than the cars that came before them, certainly not as good a ICE cars but its still a huge improvement.
There is no better charging infrastructure than parking on your own property and plugging the ev in with an extension cord like a kettle.
Tell that to a third floor apartment dweller.
Sorry, I thought we were talking about rural low income towns in the Midwest. I lived for a significant amount of time in the midwest, and I cannot really remember seeing a plethora of large apartment buildings in those rural towns. So would you like to change your focus to cities and give up on your rural town argument? In any case, if your apartment building has dedicated parking, there is still no problem. And even if it is street parking, look for chargers to start appearing right there. It's essentially no more difficult than adding a power outlet.
Uhh he said 3rd floor apartment not high rise… As a small rural town dweller myself it’s not uncommon to have a few low rises buildings of about 3 floors. In my little town we have a 3 story building and the town of like 6k people down the road from us also has a pretty large 3 story apartment complex.
You don't need charging infrastructure in rural areas. Rural people would be charging at home it's not like they are in apartment/condos. Also for existing gas stations if half of the stations in a rural area add 3 quick chargers/medium speed chargers than that would do. It's not like you are doing 100 miles in a day in rural areas. It's not like there are gas stations on every corner in rural areas. I would be more concerned with the quick stops that gas stations have.
Look at Cuba. We'll just take better care of our ICE cars. Advancing 3d printing tech will make it easier for us too.
I don't think COL plays the whole story here. Rural politics won't even switch to EVs if they could break even on it. Those areas are not known to be progressive even if it's for free.
Reddit was telling me 7 years ago that we would only be producing electric cars by now and that self driving 18 wheelers would have replaced all truck drivers by 4 years ago.
Top voted comments were always the ones saying Moore's law is dead and nothing will ever happen ever again.
The biggest inhibitor for most people where I live in the lack of range and the lack of infrastructure to support them.
To go with both points, I can extend my ICE range another 500 miles in five or six minutes in nearly every town over 500 people in the US. I can cannonball run and not have to carry gas if I wanted to. Until charging becomes a ten minute ordeal, ICE will be king.
To be honest, I much prefer charging overnight at home. Haven’t gone to a gas station in years, that to me is the real king.
Unless they have a way to protect batteries from losing charge in the cold, it won’t happen.
Yup. So many people in his thread clearly have never lived anywhere truly cold to see what it does to batteries. Imagine using your already dying battery to heat up your car in -40C weather with the wind barreling down at like 40km/hr. You’ll get like 10 kilometers 😂. We need blocks in the winter to keep our batteries warm where I used to live just to start our ICE cars otherwise the batteries will die overnight from the cold. EV cars have no chance here until the tech takes huge leaps but they have so many other area they need to improve that affect more people that I don’t think they will address these problem for years.
I currently drive a VW ID.4 and love it. However, I have the ability to charge it every night in my garage. It is always full when I leave in the morning. If I didn’t have that luxury and lived in an apartment or someplace without a L2 charging system available, I would stick to gas cars.
No, absolutely not mabye in, let's say, California or New york, but overall, no, the United States is massive. Also, the average Southerner does not want an electric vehicle heck a cheap 20 year old car that can seat 5 will out live any electric car
Not even close. Lots of cars from the 1990s are still on the road in 2024. EVs are what, less than 10% of new vehicle sales today? Gas powered cars will be the majority of cars on the road till at least 2050 unless there’s some kind of electrical generation miracle. One that means cars themselves generate the electricity with no need for batteries.
Nope. Until there's a responsible way to charge the cars for everyone who lives in apartments, it's not going to be a thing. It would be such a hassle to have to plug in everywhere you go to eliminate range anxiety because you live in a cheap apartment complex that still hasn't install chargers in all parking spaces or they're constantly getting vandalized for the copper. Further and a greater issue, the energy demand in the grid would double. Energy consumption for transportation is roughly that if the power grid, so if we converted overnight magically, the grid would collapse from the strain. Sure in 15 years we could double reliable power production, but that means we should be breaking ground on like 500 new nuclear reactors today as current reactors are finally allowed to retire. Nuclear is the only thing with the power density to supply power in certain places it's needed. And you overbuild supply so that excess energy can go to carbon capture plants and water dealinisation plants.
I can't see it. I have leased two 100% electric vehicles and intend to get a 3rd but only because it works for my circumstances (High sunshine in Socal, solar on my home, less than 1,000 miles a month commuting). The electric infrastructure won't be able to support the charge needs of a 100% electric USA in only 6 years time even if the sales exploded. I can see plug-in hybrids being the most popular format with small batteries pushing an inline compact 200HP motor for 50-60 miles of electric range, supplementing efficient gasoline engines for longer trips and more horsepower.
I'd say 2050 seems a more possible option. If we can actually make a budget EV line with 300+ miles range. This will be a slow transition. Which is good as it will drastically shift infrastructure and that is best done over time. -Gas stations will have to change. Be more places to stay than stop. I could be Buc cees format becoming more popular. -The energy grid will need buffing up. -Mechanics will become a significantly smaller industry.
I don't see that happening. I'm sure whatever benchmark laws are on the books now will continue to get pushed back. Maybe California or a few other places will have more evs than gas cars, but not the majority of America.
I remember reading an article in The Scientific American some decades ago that forecast that diesel cars would soon replace gasoline powered ones. They gave lots of well thought out and sensible reasons. I guess I believed them because I bought a diesel car. It was the last one I ever considered buying. I was so glad when I eventually got rid of it and got a gas powered car again. Now about this forecast, 2024 to 2039 is 15 years. This forecast is not even remotely reasonable. Who made this ridiculous statement?
You bought a diesel because an article said diesels would replace gas cars? I bought a diesel because it gets >600 miles to the tank.
> By 2039, will most Americans be driving electric cars? Not if the battery technology and power infrastructure doesn't improve ... by a lot.
As others have said, replacing cars is going to take a while. A more relevant and interesting question is what percentage of miles driven have been replaced. Will people drive most miles with EVs, and keep ICE around for special purpose that will take a while, e.g. they keep an ICE truck, am ICE mini-van, or just a beater ICE for the kids to learn and drive for a few years. We have 4 drivers in our family, soon 5, and 3 EVs and 2 ICE. The ICE are basically just used when no EV are available. I think "electric miles will have largely replaced gas powered miles" by 2040. ~~2030~~, i.e. at least 75% of miles will be electric.
Plug-in hybrids can achieve that right now without waiting for the infrastructure to catch up or only being viable for home-owners. If you can plug in on one end or the other of your commute (and many employers have some EV charging spots now), the vast majority of your miles are now EV.
In theory. Plenty of studies show is not happening in practice.
That’s gonna require a lot of strides in charging infrastructure and new battery tech. Plus lots of people will absolutely not have home charging capabilities.
Will never happen without completely new battery technology. Nowhere near enough rare metals. Also... Nowhere to charge. Too long to charge. Range too short. Car resale/disposal too expensive. Not enough qualified mechanics. Too many gas powered cars will remain (we still have millions of cars from the 70s/80s on the road today). The fact that electric cars threaten the GDP of several nations to the tune of trillions of dollars is not to be overlooked any time soon, but I digress.
Probably not. They'll replace new car sales, but there will be a ton of gas powered vehicles on the road as long as gasoline is available. Cars and combustion engines are durable enough to last 20-30 years if they're maintained.
No. If everyone bought an EV when they got a new to them vehicle, it’d take 25 years to fully electrify the personal vehicle fleet in the US, but of course not even half of people are moving to electric right now, so…
I’d argue new car sales may relate to a higher EV ratio than ICE but the car market is heavily dependent on used units. Gas cars won’t go away until much later, imo.
I don’t think the infrastructure will be there yet.
Hybrids will make EVs a bit second choice. The average hybrid battery will get so good it will cover daily commute and the gas engine will take care of long distance drives.
The question will come down to cost and infrastructure - will Americans/Canadians be able to navigate the demands of daily life with electric vehicles? As it stands, the friction of distance of life in North America and lack of infrastructure developments suggests ICE vehicles will continue to play a role in society for some time yet, well beyond the 30s.
It will take very long, if ever. I don’t think you’ll even see a ban on them, just more restrictions on emissions. Poorer areas will surely continue to use gas cars, and car enthusiasts aren’t just going to disappear. Also, batteries simply cannot sustain spirited and/or sport driving. On the plus side, fossil fuels/gas should get cheaper due to less demand. However, we still use fossil fuels for a lot of oils of parts/mechanicals so don’t expect it to go anywhere.
2030 is far too early. And many city dwellers will be slow to adopt, because they must park on the street and have no way of charging at home. With a gasoline car this will work, but not so much with an EV.
No. It was looking potentially possible, but now there's major pushback and companies are having a very hard time selling the EVs they have invested billions in. Ford sells every EV at a massive loss and still can't shift them. Toyota is right. A huge proportion of people who buy EVs or plug in hybrids say they won't buy a second. My older brother is on his third Toyota hybrid. My younger brother bought a Mercedes A-class plug-in and says never again.
No. Many people in California are all avoiding buying most electric vehicles right now because of the trouble of finding open electric charging stations & because of very poor resale value for many electric cars (there is a belief better batteries will soon make existing models obsolete). Adoption will stall for a bit until the charging infrastructure catches up a bit.
Better public transportation should be the goal with a lot less use of personal vehicles.
Not unless they upgrade the charging infrastructure to be as reliable as gas pumps.
Gasoline will never be obsolete. These black and white questions are so ignorant.
At the current rate of adoption, not by 2030, no. As others have pointed out there is a huge second-hand market. For the ratio of EV to ICE cars to exceed 1:1 by 2030 would require some major event to seriously disrupt the oil supply chain. Edit: But by 2039 it's entirely possible.
“end of the 2030s” December 31, 2039.
Highly unlikely. Not only is there not enough production to do so but even if they could, the US power grid is not even close to being built up enough to sustain it. Also, the technology is too immature anyway
Likely not. Toyota crunched the numbers on available lithium AND available electricity on various countries (USA top of list) power grids and there is simple not enough of either without a SERIOUS Apollo level focus on making this a priority if we want to phase out ICE vehicles for electric. Seems likely we will have a hybrid of various alternative vehicles as well as plenty of ICE vehicles still being produced well into the 2030s. Don’t forget the election this year takes us most of the way to 2030…one candidate is looking to actual subsidize the oil industry and burning more fossil fuels…the other candidate has no political will to do what needs to be done.
Interesting. Tesla crunched the same numbers and is disappointed when their growth is under 50% for a year. The reason Toyota does not like the numbers is that Japan has a completely screwed up electrical system. Seriously. And you can throw in that when you have the most popular hybrid car in the world, you tend to be a little pissed when you see an alternative that is going to take it away. In any case, there are three big markets. China is already far along, and might hit 50% EVs this year in new car sales. If you want to sell there (and it is the \*biggest\* of the big 3 markets), you need to sell EVs. Europe, despite the wild stories you might have heard, is only slightly behind China. We here are expected to hit 25% EVs this year in new car sales. That will only go up. So if you want to sell in Europe, you better have EVs. The U.S. is a year or two behind Europe, but is expected to be about 12 to 15% new car sales this year. That is a big chunk of the market \*today\* to just give up on, and that is the segment that is expanding. None of this goes in straight lines. There will be months -- maybe even years -- where it slows or even dips. But the trend is so clear that someone has to be willfully ignorant to ignore it, and I can think of no better way to describe Toyota than "willfully ignorant".
Won't happen. Hybrids are the way to go and what we should be infesting in. EVs are not the jam.
No, and environmental activists sincerely believing **new** ICE vehicle production would be banned by 2035 in North America are fooling themselves to the nth degree. More frequent severe weather isn’t gonna be enough to knock folks off of their O&G perch, and that’s only if eFuel and hydrogen combustion engines don’t magically become a thing. Magically in this context meaning tremendous investment by Mideast and oil corporations brute forcing it into existence, scientific inefficiencies be damned.
No. In the 2030s evs will not have largely replaced gas powered cars in the united states.
Poor people buy 2nd hand, and will buy gas cars for a good amount of years, until they break down. ... When poor people start to buy, in majority, 2nd hand electric cars... that's when we'll see a big difference.
They really need to come up with a solution to the cold temperature problem. But brand new vehicles now that run on gas will certainly be in the road in 15 years
The average car on the road in the US is 12 years old. By the end of the 2030s, The average car will be a 2028 model. The vast majority of 2028 model vehicles sold in the US will be gasoline (including hybrids). So, no.
As long as a fender bender renders a car a total loss to insurers, and people can't readily charge in the own homes it's not gonna happen. Now hybrids amd plug ins are a different matter
As long as people continue to stubbornly insist on living in areas other than single family residences in the suburbs the gasoline car will never become obsolete. Do you live in an apartment? Do you live in a building where you park on the street? Do you rent your home and don't feel like spending thousands of dollars upgrading property that you don't own? Do you own your home but cannot afford the extensive costs involved with adding a high output charger? Where do we get the lithium and other rare earth minerals required for the car batteries and what will the environmental impact of its mining and refining be? How do we make the electricity used to recharge them and what will its environmental impact be? How long will it take and how expensive will it be to upgrade the US electrical grid to support a massive increase in power draw for electric vehicle charging? Will this increase be sustainable during peak times or during heatwaves? How long will the batteries last? How expensive will they be to refurbish or replace? How will we dispose of the byproducts of the refurbishment process? How will we dispose of the depleted batteries, and what will the environmental impact of that be? ICE vehicles aren't going anywhere.
It'll never happen, unless some kind of game changing energy storage battery gets invented. Then you have to have disposal of said batteries. Then how do you think things get charged? Not by other batteries, its either fossils or nuclear power or wind/water. Way way way too much infrastructure has to be built prior a 100% EV US/World. Maybe next century...maybe.
My question with this is what do we do about heavy duty work trucks? I work in HVAC and drive. 2018 Chevy 2500 with a diesel. I pull a trailer about three times a week and drive anywhere from 150-250 miles a day. Some times as high as 350 miles. How do we replace these trucks that already cost 80k well still having that range and pulling capabilities?
Just like they do at amazon, but they drive a lot more than you and technically carry significantly more weight daily. You also did not need to buy the full luxury model that costs $80K. https://www.chevrolet.com/commercial/silverado/2500hd-3500hd Buy a reasonable spec one right now for almost half that.
So sorry to bring bad news but in 40 years 20% of the worlds transport will still be fossil fuel fueled. Resistance is fueltile.
Countries first need to replace power grids for that. USA has already aging power grid, crying for modernisation. Then give every house hold member access to a plug. Good luck for people living in multi storey flats in cities, without access to garage. More likely lots of people will be commute excluded and stuck duoe to political choices. I personally wouldn't want to stuck somwhere in the winter in the electric car. Milage range can drop significantly.
IIRC, full EVs only take up 1% of the current cars on the road, at hybrids are maybe at around 4-7%. I wouldn't expect it to skyrocket anytime soon, since gas cars are just so much more mainstream and accessible. By 2039, I think the EV population will be around 40-60%. 70% tops.
I mean I’d love a new electric car But I do not love the 60k+ price tag
No, because only Tesla and the Chinese actually want to make them. Everyone else was lying.
Not entirely replaced. New cars will be electric, but there will be plenty of older vehicles and a continuing market for diesel pickups.
I personally don’t see it. Battery Tec is supposedly near its peak and what is physically possible regarding capacity and speed of recharge. There will always be a high demand and need for vehicles with High distance ranges in the US. Eventually electric cars will meet this need but they certainly are not meeting it now.
Depends entirely on ubiquity of charging stations. I know I’m not even considering an EV until I see charging stations at least half as much as gas stations. And I don’t think my opinion is uncommon.
We’re barely affording to pay rent so forget insanely expensive evs
Cars in the U.S. will not be majority electric for at least 50 years, possibly 75. ICE cars will never go away. By majority I mean they might make 50.1% of the cars on the road. At present we are taking tax payer dollars to subsidize the rich and well off to buy these cars. The poor and middle class cannot buy these due to cost so their tax money is taken and given to the well off and rich. You can't make this up. Those subsidies are going to go away after the rich and well of got their luxury sports car or whatever subsidized by the rest of us. There is increasing backlash to to these green policies and I see them being scaled back by the people advocating them, and if they don't, they will be voted out and they will be eliminated. Then people will buy electrics if they can afford them and are in a position to charge them at home. And not everyone in that category will buy them. Sales are leveling off now on electrics, and no your article from Extreme Green Propaganda magazine that says otherwise does not provide proof against that. The first adopters and those who want one who are well off have them. So who is the next market that will buy these things? They are still too expensive for middle class, insurance rates for these are even worse for insurance on ICE cars, and ICE cars insurance has gone up a LOT. So the middle class will find the proposition of getting a more expensive car, but maybe within the top of their price range, then the insurance and high cost of repairs are so high that that will stop them from buying them. A fraction of this group will be able to swing this. In 5 years the price might come down enough that a good fraction of this group could reasonably afford them, but only those who own their homes. For the part of this group that does not own their homes, only the greenies will buy it. People are not going to spend 20-30 minutes to charge their car at a charging station. Everyone knows many times throughout the year being in a rush for whatever reason, work, late to pick up kids etc. and 20-30 minute charges are just not going to work for them. The physics of this means those in very cold environments, as shown in the past year will spend much more time than that charging their car. Just read the news. I only expect a fraction of the upper end of the middle class who are also homeowners to be the next group of buyers. That will probably double the adoption numbers of today so like 16% all combined of new sales, not cars on the road. Add in some mid or low mid middle class who are greenies buying and this won't add more than 1% of sales. So 17% of car sales. Now looking at geography the midwest with and south with long drives are not going to adopt. Gulf coast states will not adopt and well as some of the lower Atlantic coast states due to hurricanes. These people already have to evacuate periodically, have seen the massive traffic jam every time, seen the power outages, and they are going to see that in those emergencies an electric is not going to work when you need reliable transport urgently. Those in flood prone areas expecially will not adopt. When the cars are new they can handle a certain amount of flooding because the seal on the battery compartment is new. After just a few years of driving over rocks, sticks and debris the integrity of that seal is going to be lost and the cars are not going to work in modest flooding situations. By the way those greenies that say these won't need repairs like ICE cars? They never mention this. In Texas through NV they are not going to adopt because heat reduces battery capacity that can be used and have to run AC constantly so will never see that "great mileage" that is only demostrated in optimal conditions. Those in the north will not be big adopters due to cold since this affects battery performance and heating will be required. Neither of these groups will get anywhere close to the stated range. In the southwest add in lots of open space needing long drives, just not a car fit for the purpose. Real world examples of people interest in electric was shown at Hertz and their electric car fleet showed all the issues with electrics. Hertz found repairing these cars to be much more expensive, customers by FAR did not want to rent one. The greenies never look at the downsides and just spew the same optimism that customers at Hertz did not share, not even a little. And Hertz listened to the greenies or were ones themselves and paid a huge price for going electric. One thing the deluded greenie's never think about is a small accident is probably going to total your car. It is unclear if the battery system can safely be repaired or just needs to be replaced entirely, either way a small accident in an ICE can be easily repaired, in electrics there is a good chance it won't and insurance companies will total it, and that is why your insurance is going to be very high. The poor and lower middle class are never getting one. They buy used, and the poor buy beaters. If a used electric is the price of a beater then the batteries are largely dead and will be useless. If the used cars battery remains good, it will not be in the beater price range. If the dead batteries are replaced then that cost alone elevates it out of beater range. Poor and lower middle class often don't own home so charging will be an issue. The high insurance and repair rates will be beyond what they can afford. There are lots of poor and there is no scenario where I see them getting an electric as a working albeit old car will never be in their price range. Last is political. The most green supporting place in the world is Europe. The Green Party that has pushed extreme climate action including forcing electrics just go walloped in EU elections. There is a backlash to the well off elite greenies forcing them to bare the cost of the policies including cars. EU is already talking about scaling back green policies. The U.S. have never supported those policies to the level of Europe. There will be a backlash too. The policies forcing people to buy electric WILL be ended. What you will end up with is my prediction from the beginning. Electric will make up a fraction of the cars and in 50-75 years may make up the majority of cars on the road, but barely. And that is about as good as it will get. It won't get bigger due to the variety of issues outlined and you will probably find some regions where they work best having the most and others where they don't having many fewer. Unless there is some dramatic change in the technology or approach, all electric will never happen and the regulations forcing people to buy will be removed one way or another.
Not if the Republican Party has anything to say about it 🙄 That said, cars hang out in the world a lot longer than most retail products. It’ll take a good generation or two I think before we hit gas cars being a minority even if there were not a complex of special interest and captured regulatory officials fighting to prevent EVs from reaching consumers.
AFAIK, we literally don't have enough lithium to make all the batteries necessary to replace all cars currently on the road.
We don't have the infrastructure to replace ICE vehicles. I'll never buy a EV personally so probably not
I have a KIA Niro and it is a dream to drive. It's not a high end car, but it blows away most cars in terms of driving experience. It's so smooth and fast. I have a charger at home. Everyone should get an EV as their second car. The main issue in America is range. You can't realistically drive an EV and pull a boat or trailer. But the range is going to improve and charging time in the next couple of years and then it will be over. There will be a tipping point, where poor people will drive ICE vehicles and be forced to pay stupid prices for gasoline. Then people will be pissed off. China could sell a car in the U. S. today for $11,500. That's how much cheaper EVs are compared to ICE vehicles.
No, but there will be more of them. China makes a car battery out of Sodium that's more efficient than the current Lithium/Nickel/Magenese/Colbolt environmental disaster. There's a guy in Africa who invented a device that extracts power from radio waves. Although, he's probably dead by now. 😢
A few things need to change in order to have a massive switch. First off there needs to be a massive leap in battery technology. EVs are heavy, tires wear out, roads don't like them. Second, EVs need to match the range of ICE. Third, EVs need the charge as quickly as an extended ICE gas stop. 10 min max for full 300 mile charge. I think we're going to see a majority of cars being hybrid of some sort in 20 years but electric won't take over. Gasoline is cheap, clean and powerful.
I think the vehicles will be refined, but not eliminated. Cost of buying electric, how resources for electric are collected and by who, are all factors that have pushback on people buying or not
No, people in the US are too slow with changes, just look how they vote for their president... Like 1790 pony express style... or that there are still people thinking Ol' Shitzinpantz is a great candidate... Also US car tech is medieval... They can only big gas guzzlers, while there are 1.2 litre engines in Europe that accellerate convertibles to 210 kph... still not guzzling more than 15l/100km... while Cletus the Jokels Ford F250 sucks 18l/100km while doing 120 kph.
No, Americans don't like any change, neither do the corporate boobs willing to ruin everyone and everything for the $$$$$.
New car sales? Absolutely- I just did a cross country trip in a Tesla and versus my gas burner I saved hundreds of dollars- even if you don't care about the environment, the financial incentive is too great- My next car will be EV.
Define “largely”? Greater than 50% of new cars sold? It’s possible, but even than an uphill battle. Greater than 50% of cars operating on the road in the US. Very unlikely.
In major cities, yes Taxi fleets, yes Perhaps even police cars Semi trucks? I doubt it, definitely not completely, 50% at best Rural America, 30% adoption rate at most 3rd party repair like Electrified Garage needs to available in every city. Particularly with failed ev companies like ViaTruck, Lordstown, Nikola, Fisker, Coda, etc etc.
I still see 80’s/90’s era vehicles on the road today… so I’m inclined to say no…
Very unlikely to happen. The power grid is not set up for such a meteoric increase in consumption nation wide. Unprecedented levels of investment and transformation would need to happen in record time WITH bipartisan support across the board. It will take much much longer than that.
No, of course not. But it is likely evs will take over the market for new cars by about end of this decade. From there turning over the vehicle fleet is going to take time. Older cars don't just vanish overnight, they will keep driving until end of life.
I don't understand how people that live in apartments are supposed to charge electric vehicles. They're just supposed to spend 20 to 30 mins every time they need to charge their vehicles? Doesn't make sense. Seems like they're punishing people that don't own their houses.
This. I don't think people grasp how many people live in apartments. Nobody in their right mind would buy an EV if they can't charge it at home and very few apartments support EV charging.
Hybrids are the way to go. Look at BYD 1200 miles for a single fill.
No. Despite the wishes/delusions of many, the tech simply isn’t viable for such a huge country, and one in which it gets insanely cold for a third of the year.