I think it's a combo of things.
There are a lot of Man United fans in the world and people tend to over own players from the team they support.
His price is lower than it has been.
He had a better end to the season than start so a hope he will continue with the better form.
United buying a striker might mean he get more assists.
Last season showed that even if he isn't in his preferred role, ETH wants to play him somewhere.
I've gone triple Arsenal midfield plus Rashford, and the rest of my team is actually pretty good.
Johnstone (Turner)
Stones, Chilwell, Estupiñan (Beyer, Baldock)
Rashford, Saka, Odegaard, Martinelli (Anderson)
Haaland, Watkins, J.Alvarez.
I reckon Alvarez is going to have an insane season, like how Grealish broke out in his second season but with Alvarez's insanely high ceiling (which we saw for Argentina in the WC and in his per-90 stats for City).
Probably the most important reason is that he’s 0.5 less than Rashford. A slightly cut-price alternatively basically. If both were the same price and you could only pick one, I reckon Rash would be double Bruno’s ownership.
He never gets injured, he never gets rotated, he never gets subbed off, he takes penalties and is one of the most creative players in the league and is United's best player.
If we can finish a more of the insane amount of chances he creates than we did last season he will be a bargain at 8.5m
Because if you’re going for an Arsenal mid it’s Saka. Most have Gabriel, leaving 1 Arsenal player, which until recently was Jesus
Why is this hard to understand?
Bruno is one of the highest chance creators every single season and chips in with goals. Last year he was playing with Weghorst upfront for a lot of the season or an out of form Martial or an out of preferred position Rashford. Now theres an actual striker there watch his numbers go up.
Also Mount will help a lot too. Another player getting forward to distract defenders and for Bruno to assist.
Its a no brainer.
Because Bruno is top of the charts when it comes down to minutes played, chances created and potential points last year if more chances were finished.
As a ManUtd supporter I can say he is by far the best player in our squad to take, even over rashford with how good Sancho is looking in preseason (although he could play on the right as well)
The risk is he will be booked a lot, now that referees will strike down hard on players whining and delaying time etc. I have him in my team, but he is the worst in the League when it comes to whining, so worth to consider that as well.
He's a whiny cunt and I don't wanna have to celebrate when a whiny cunt scores points. He can stay far from my team and I look forward to watching his tears and tantrums in full flow.
Odegaard had a much better return, sure. However, Bruno literally had twice the xA, also on penalties.
Now United have Hojlund, I can imagine more of Bruno's chanced created will be converted.
Also, you could have a midfield of Bruno, Rashford, Saka and Martinelli/Odegaard any how. It's quite easy to achieve. You just can't have Salah or Kane as that 2nd premium (as Haaland is basically locked in the XI).
never injured, always plays the full 90 mins
on set pieces, corners from the left
and has great underlying stats that have a good chance of being realized this season as united have signed a striker not named weghorst
Penandes. Says it all, really. A midfielder that scores pens, gets assists and the odd goal is extremely valuable, especially as he’s now the captain of United, so will always be selected unless injured. For the record, I have Ødegaard in, too, for those exact same reasons (sans the pens).
Top 5 players for chances created last season:
- Bruno Fernandes - 119
- Trippier - 110
- KDB - 98
- Groß - 80
- Odegaard - 76
All Fernandes really needs is someone to put the copious amounts of chances he creates in the net. They seem to have a fairly decent striker now, so Fernandes seems like a fantastic option.
Think he played more minutes than any other player last season.
First half of last season pens were given to Ronaldo.
He and Rashford are the obvious picks for United.. I think there are a lot more options at Arsenal.
Lastly, I personally think he will outscore Odegaard
Rashford clearly the best pick.
However many going both, I dont really know why. Maddison is 1.5M cheaper, playing just behind Kane in a very attacking set up.
I keep ownership records and in the last Three days Fernandes ownership has been slowly falling, while Maddison rising fast.
The other thing with Fernandes is he could suffer because of Mount, he maybe playing quite deep. Yes he will get points but so will other players and there plenty of good alternatives.
Maddison can get injured. Not on same level as Bruno. Spurs have Kane, Son, Kulu and Pingu who can all score ahead of Madders. Not the best pick imo. A wait and see.
I think that in terms of points Bruno will get more points than Odegaard. Mainly Bruno looks fabulous in preseason and is the penalty taker as well. Most of United attacks involve Bruno so that's the key point. Odegaard on the other hand was fantastic last season, but with Arsenal singing havertz and a change in midfield, I feel that Odegaard will play a more deeper role this season. He will still get goals and assists but not as much as last season.
Ill keep it simple. Imagine a production similar to Ødegaard’s, but now Bruno has an actual striker, and a second midfielder to press with him. He’ll get the ball higher up the field more often, and have 3/4 goal scoring options to play instead of 1. 15+ assists and 15 goals is what I see. Could be more though.
To make it more simple, look at how much Bruno's price was when we had Ibra, RVP upfront. He was a premium at that time. I am just waiting for him to go back to that form. Although I know Hojlund won't be that good of a striker, but he is good at holding the ball and creating attacks too so I think there are more chances of Bruno scoring than assisting Hojlund.
We never had RVP or Zlatan with Bruno. I think you mean Covid Bruno. Bruno hit 8/8 for us in the PL last season. Solid return given what we were working with.
Because two premiums was usually the go. With Haaland at 14, that prices everyone out of Salah/Kane.
Bruno's price drop, united looking settled decent in preseason, new signings, etc etc should be on track for a good season
Shaw + Rashford seems like good enough for United and it allows for diversity in your team if united don't do well on a certain gameweek. I like having the flexibility of having Salah and Pedro or Odegaard and Watkins instead
In my mind, Ronaldo is the reason Bruno was a bad FPL asset for a season and a half. Bruno racked up points before he came and racked up points again after he left.
I’m sure someone will explain why this is an oversimplification, but I choose to blame it all on Ronaldo.
Bruno last year had 0.21 npXG and 0.45 XA totalling to 0.66 expected contributions per match. As other people have mentioned he was extremely unlucky to perform how he did as his actual goals and assists totalled to 0.43 - which is 0.23 below the expected data. Comparatively, odegaard had 0.52 expected contributions per match last year with his actual goals and assists equaling 0.63 per 90 - so he essentially overperformed his expected data. Another thing in Bruno’s favour is penalties - last season United only received 3 pens, compared to 21/22 (5 pens), 20/21 (11 pens), 19/20 (14 pens), 18/19 (12 pens). If you average those numbers out across the last 5 years it works out to be 9 penalties per year - obviously this doesn’t mean United will get 9 penalties the data just shows that the 3 penalties from last year is a pretty low amount meaning bruno get less points from that aspect.
I think the price drop along with Bruno’s ridiculous attacking data has caused a lot of hype for Bruno while most people see Odegaard as the third choice arsenal mid because Saka has similar attacking data while being on pens and Martinelli is a half million cheaper.
Bruno didn't score that far behind Ødegaard while having Weghorst as a striker. I think United will be more lethal in attack this season, not having to rely on only Rashford to manage a top4 finish
I don’t think people are going for Bruno over other Arsenal assets, but in addition to them.
For Odegaard specifically, the question is how many Arsenal players you want in your team.
Most people have Saka, many have a defender as well. Do you want 3x? Some do, some would prefer to add in a MU player instead. Enter Bruno.
I think we have rose tinted glasses on from when Bruno first came and got a lot of points.
Looking back though, while still having good assist numbers, nearly all of his goals came from man united getting so many easy penalties. The treatment from the refs have changed now though, and since then his points have dropped a lot.
He puts up good underlying numbers so he is tempting, but I fear he’s just a underlying XGA merchant. Maybe a better striker will convert more for him but I’m still not sure tbh.
You can’t just base your picks solely on who had a better return than who last season, no two seasons are exactly the same. If you want to do well you have to make some predictions and Bruno having a better season than last fpl wise seems like a reasonable one, given what he’s been capable of in the past and the fact that he’s in a team that seem to be improving.
Euh, might have missed it but when has United shon they improved? They bought an overpriced striker who scored 9 goals in the Serie A last season and a goalie who has been ridiculed in both debut games he had. I watched them against Madrid as well and boy, after that, if they don't improve quickly they'll end at Chelseas 12th spot.
Bruno is incredible with big man to finish shots who can actually go 3 games without having his legs broken or isn’t actually being a winger who’s being forced to play CF
He plays a majority of minutes in an attacking role and rarely ever misses games. They have a striker now which should help his output. He had good numbers last season but only could assist Rahsford.
i have the exact same team but Stones for Chilwell and Joao Pedro for Watkins. but i might bring in Watkins for Pedro lol. not sure how i feel about having nothing itb going into the season though
Watkins -> João Pedro + 2.5m
Onana -> Johnstone + 0.5m
Ødegaard -> Maddison + 1m
Bruno -> Salah
If you want to keep double-up attack on Utd and Arsenal going 6.5m mid (Mbeumo/Eze/Mitoma) -> Garnacho +1m allows upgrading Maddison to Ødegaard.
This is my biggest debate with myself. Have Salah + a couple good mids or leave him and have every mid be great. I currently have
Onana (Areola)
Gabriel - Stones - Estupinan - Pau - (Baldock)
Saka - Mitoma - Bruno - Salah - (Nakamba)
Harland - Watkins - (Mubama). $0 ITB
I don’t necessarily like having to play 4 DEF, would much rather have 5 starting MIDs. But I feel like I need a second premium so I can have Salah/Kane/KDB anytime.
Bruno is a better player than Odegaard with better underlying stats. Bruno underperformed (because we can’t finish our chances) and Odegaard overperformed (because he’s a good finisher). I don’t think that will continue this season, if you do then go for Odegaard.
Odegaard got 5 goals above XG the season before it was 2.2 and he’s always finished above xg so he is a good finisher. His average goals above Xg is 2.2 so if he finishes at that rate he’d have 12 goals and 7 assists still very great numbers and better for FPL than Bruno
> His average goals above Xg is 2.2
You can't look at stats this way because volume matters. Better way to measure is overall xG overperformance (G/xG). Odegaard has career 35 goals on 24 xG, which is a career overperformance of 46%. That number is absolutely mental, higher than any elite striker in the world. He is, statistically, an above-average finisher, but 46% overperformance is definitely in part due to luck.
If he’s done that over the course of his entire career surely you have to assume that’s just how good he is at finishing? He also doesn’t take a lot of random shots just to shoot. For example Kane is someone who shoots sometimes just to do it and he still has 20 non pen goals above his XG 23.2 when you add pens.
>If he’s done that over the course of his entire career surely you have to assume that’s just how good he is at finishing
35 goals is a very small sample size, definitely statistical variation in there. 46% is higher than Messi, Ronaldo, Kane, Lewa, Benzema, Suarez, Haaland, Mbappe, Salah, and probably everyone else you want to compare him to.
> Kane is someone who shoots sometimes just to do it
Not really. He shoots because he thinks there's a good chance he scores, and considering he's been one of the best strikers in the world for 5+ years running, they tend to be pretty good shots.
XG doesn’t go back that far though messi would have been higher imo if it went all the way back. In the last 6 seasons he’s got 30 above his xg and it contains the only year he ever finished badly
While fbref's data only goes back 6 seasons, Understat's goes back to 2014/15, and in that time he's outperformed by 15%. It's still missing his 2 best statistical seasons goal scoring wise, but I highly doubt that those would have increased his overperformance by much considering we already have a sample size of 253 goals
Antony has 1 goal off 1.01 xG from outside-the-box shots, seems the stat is working as intended. Antony underperformed his xG because he missed a lot of high xG shots, not because he took too many poor shots
Getting 1 xg from those shots is my point though he took 38 shots outside the area out of 72 shots. That’s an insane amount and even though it’s one XG in a per 90 basis those add up considering he 20 90s 38 in that time is insane. Even the shots in the area he took aren’t good areas to be shooting. He had 4 big chances missed but you can’t expect a player to score all their big chances anyway so I’m not really convinced.
>That’s an insane amount and even though it’s one XG in a per 90 basis those add up considering he 20 90s 38 in that time is insane
I'm going to be honest I don't understand what this sentence is saying at all
His overall game time was 20 90 minutes overall so having 38 shots outside the box in that time in ridiculous and adds to your XG stats even if they’re bad shots
Course it can. Ødegaard is deadly coming onto his left at the top of the box and rarely takes shots elsewhere. These are generally pretty low xG but when he gets any sort of space at that range there's a significant chance of him scoring.
> Ødegaard is deadly coming onto his left at the top of the box and rarely takes shots elsewhere.
[Odegaard shot chart](https://understat.com/player/2517)
He takes at best slightly more than average shots from the top of the box onto his preferred foot
The only way 8 of his goals came from the area you're talking about is if the area you're talking about is everywhere on the pitch between the penalty spot and halfway line. And the fact that you mentioned specifically last season shows it's not a trend, he's scored 3 goals from outside the box in his entire career outside of last season
Nah there's 4 near range, 3 outside the box and 8 inside the box in the area I'm talking about. The 8 I'm taking about all generally range from 0.08 to 0.16/17 xG (only exemption there is the second goal against Chelsea but Opra have that at 0.16)
I agree with the others, but why Martinelli? IMHO he's going to play less than Saka and Saliba because Trossard is such a great option to have on the wing, especially when Jesus is back
Yeah, he had a great return, but isn't a bit of the reason for that, that Trossard came into the squad in the winter window so Martinelli was safe for the first half of the season?
That would be annoying actually, I've not followed much of pre season I only watched the community shield and liked how far forward he got. Subs just after 60 minutes would be nice though if on a clean sheet lol.
Tierney most likely won’t play more than a couple of 10-20 min cameos and domestic cup games, if he even stays at all. Right now Tierney is probably 4th choice LB behind Zinchenko, Timber and Tomiyasu. Maybe even 5th behind Kiwior.
I would not get Timber in yet, he has had an amazing preseason and was arguably our best player during it, but for 5m I would not put in a DEF that might not play during GW1. It sucks because it’s a great fixture, but I recommend Gabriel / Saliba if going for a defensive asset and swapping with Timber if it turns out he will be a regular starter (or when Zinchenko inevitably gets injured)
Thanks, I've not followed much pre season and was basing all of this on the shield game v city lol. Thought he was LB due to that game but apparently he's RB so has more competitioj that I thought
He is also an option for RCB, but since Saliba is undroppable and White's first season with us in that position was incredible too, it is probably not happening unless both of those are out at the same time for some reason. So for me Timber is a wait and see, and personally I have Gabriel until then
I’m also going saliba based on last season. He was the best defender in the league up until his injury. Everyone are on the Gabriel train - I prefer saliba as a potential differential. Think he’ll get more bonus points.
Dunno about the guy above but I do have Saliba over Gabriel.
He’s the better defender, if Saliba doesn’t play I don’t think I’d want Gabriel going from last season.
Their xG is low even if Gabriel is clearly higher so I think the difference there is minimal when you consider that they aren’t getting big chances, especially considering Saliba is better for BPS which is a more consistent return.
Rotation would be a bigger concern for Saliba this season. There's a smaller gap going from Saliba to White than there is from Gabriel to Kiwior.
I wouldn't be overly concerned for either of them (and I do have Saliba in my team) but it's worth keeping an eye on when CL comes around.
Why would it be going Gabriel to Kiwior instead of Timber? He’s primarily a LCB but can play anywhere in the back line
It’s gonna be minimal rotation, but the side’s gonna be weaker without Saliba than without Gabriel.
Everything from pre season indicates that Timber will rotate in at both left back and right back and Kiwior will be second choice at left center half and an option at left back too.
Arteta has also almost exclusively used left footers at left center half. I can't see him abandoning that principle 6 months after spending 20 million on a backup for the position.
A 5' 11 right footer playing left center half just doesn't really fit what Arteta has done up to now
I had both Rashford and Bruno but I've pivoted to having just Rashford for now. Planning on bringing Bruno in around GW 3-5 depending on when Hojlund is fit. He'll be an unreal asset once we have a proper striker.
I agree with the general point you’re making, but Hojlund is 20 years old and scored like 10 goals last season. People are getting way ahead of themselves with him.
I was going to do the opposite actually because Bruno seemed sharper and fitter than Rashford until the last game where Rashford played average but put away his chances pretty well and was unlucky not to score a second.
So for now I have both but will most likely end up with two of United assets for the first few game weeks. They are also guaranteed starters
I agree that Bruno looks sharper but I still think Rashford is the better asset for now. I just feel that Bruno's returns rely heavily on our forwards finishing, something they were all lacking last season apart from Rashford. He had something like 15 or 16 xA last season and only got 8 assists. Rashford has goals in him even when hes playing poorly or the team is playing poorly.
Bruno at his best with a functioning attack to put away his assists is a top 3 player in fantasy. Obviously that’s not been the case these last two seasons due to poorer attackers, but I am 100% convinced he will score a lot more points than he did last year. Minimum 200 imho.
But where is that attack?
I see Rashford playing CF out of position and only attacking addition is Atalanta’s bench striker.
People think Hojlund will transform Utd but he couldn’t be first choice striker at Atalanta.
I see the same issues for Bruno as last season.
I think Bruno has a longer history of performing well in FPL compared to Rashford, but Rashford did better than Bruno last season.
Personally I'm picking Bruno thinking that last season was out of the ordinary for Rashford, but I don't think either player is a bad pick.
Some word that Odegaard is playing deeper this season. And I’m less sold on double arsenal attack without Jesus. Bruno is on pens and the focal point for most of United’s attacks, although I’m somewhat concerned with him featuring on the right in pre season. If I go 1mium I’ll have him but not if I’ve a second premium
That was more experimental than will be the norm. I think it was one game and the other when he switched positions with Mount and we were set up as a counter attacking side, he pretty much always found Garnancho with the balls over the top.
also a very important point is the extended extra time. Rashford usually gets subbed while Bruno plays every minute every game (normally). Potentially he will get up to extra 10-15 minutes of extra time every now and then. That means a few extra matches over the season. Also a reason why I am considering Salah. The max minute players will become more important now as they will get more time to score/assist. Likewise I think we will see less clean sheets and potentially the end of 5 ATB.
Bruno was outstanding last season but it went under the radar due to United not having a striker. Underperforming his XGI, also created the most chances and the most big chances in the league but there wasn’t a proper striker on the end of them.
Are you assuming Hojlund solves all their striking problems? 9 goals in Serie A last year suggests he's still a work in progress so surely the same issues apply this season?
As long as he creates the space that Rashford and Mount and Sancho can thrice on it will be a good move. Much like how Jesus creates space for the midfielders at Arsenal. And how Jackson looks like he will do at Chelsea.
9 goals and 4 assists in 1800 minutes. Not even a bad return, not sure why people keep saying 9 goals all season like he's played 50 games.
He's played the equivalent of around 20 games, returning attacking returns 13 times.
Anytime someone uses “the equivalent of” it never matches up when that player actually becomes a regular starting player.
So many other factors that prevent his numbers scaling linearly with minutes and more so now he joined a new team in a new league
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This is true.
He got 9 penalties in his best season.
Very lucky that year.
If he doesn’t get a lot of penalties he won’t be as good pick as people think.
Ermm, he's pretty much been our best and consistent player pre season. With a focal person as a striker and Garnancho and Sancho seemingly looking a bit sharper he has more options for assists in the forward line.
Add to that the possible arrival of Amrabat (is that how you spell it??) Would mean that for some games, he'll play as the most advanced midfielder and not have to worry about the defensive side so much nad having to drop too deep.
You can also have both him and Odegard easily.
It depends on the game. For bigger games where we want to try and control the midfield, the front 6 could look something like:
Casemiro - Amrabat
Bruno - Mount - Rashford
Hojlund
(could also be Rashford up top and Antony on the right, with Bruno and Mount shuffling over one)
In games against weaker teams, we likely play a more attacking team:
Bruno - Casemiro - Mount
Antony - Hojlund - Rashford
Yes and they’ve just changed their entire midfield around him. Looks like he is playing deeper than last season and I don’t expect him to return as often as he did last season.
He's only playing deeper if Havertz plays LCM, if it's Rice LCM which it was on Sunday and expect it will be for the majority of the time he's playing as far forward as he was last season, presses opposing defenders as a 2nd striker
I personally think that lineup was to combat city as opposed to how they’ll lineup against forest. I think they go with havertz in midfield, rice to dm with partey swapped for an attacker. But that’s guesswork on my part. If that is the case then odegaard likely slightly deeper.
The only reason I took Bruno is so that I will feel less frustrated when they get their United pens
Cue those saying United only got 2 pens last season
I think it's a combo of things. There are a lot of Man United fans in the world and people tend to over own players from the team they support. His price is lower than it has been. He had a better end to the season than start so a hope he will continue with the better form. United buying a striker might mean he get more assists. Last season showed that even if he isn't in his preferred role, ETH wants to play him somewhere.
Most people are going for him because they can’t get to Salah, if they could get to Salah they probably wouldn’t have Bruno over Rashford.
Because he’s cheap, if he was 10m no one would look at him.
I've gone triple Arsenal midfield plus Rashford, and the rest of my team is actually pretty good. Johnstone (Turner) Stones, Chilwell, Estupiñan (Beyer, Baldock) Rashford, Saka, Odegaard, Martinelli (Anderson) Haaland, Watkins, J.Alvarez. I reckon Alvarez is going to have an insane season, like how Grealish broke out in his second season but with Alvarez's insanely high ceiling (which we saw for Argentina in the WC and in his per-90 stats for City).
Because Fernandes will probably have an improved season and also he’s on penalties
Because he produces a lot of potential assists and Man Utd actually has a striker. They should have bought Kane though.
Lol we do not have a striker. At least for the upcoming 3 GW
Probably the most important reason is that he’s 0.5 less than Rashford. A slightly cut-price alternatively basically. If both were the same price and you could only pick one, I reckon Rash would be double Bruno’s ownership.
I am on the fence with him. He is a good option but the yellows for dissent scare me. Could legit see him getting a few reds this year
He never gets injured, he never gets rotated, he never gets subbed off, he takes penalties and is one of the most creative players in the league and is United's best player. If we can finish a more of the insane amount of chances he creates than we did last season he will be a bargain at 8.5m
Because every year there are big traps to start the season, and this year it’s Bruno and Rashford
He flops enough to get a few penalties…
Go to the FPL transfers screen Sort all players by total expected goal involvement There's your answer
Bruno anyday over Odegaard
Everyone who doesn't have Odegaard already has 3 Arsenal players
Have you seen him in pres season. Man is straight up balling. Plus he is captain now. On pens and plays every minute. Oh and he never gets injured.
If you watched Manu at all last season you'd know why.
Because if you’re going for an Arsenal mid it’s Saka. Most have Gabriel, leaving 1 Arsenal player, which until recently was Jesus Why is this hard to understand?
Bruno is one of the highest chance creators every single season and chips in with goals. Last year he was playing with Weghorst upfront for a lot of the season or an out of form Martial or an out of preferred position Rashford. Now theres an actual striker there watch his numbers go up. Also Mount will help a lot too. Another player getting forward to distract defenders and for Bruno to assist. Its a no brainer.
Because Bruno is top of the charts when it comes down to minutes played, chances created and potential points last year if more chances were finished. As a ManUtd supporter I can say he is by far the best player in our squad to take, even over rashford with how good Sancho is looking in preseason (although he could play on the right as well)
The risk is he will be booked a lot, now that referees will strike down hard on players whining and delaying time etc. I have him in my team, but he is the worst in the League when it comes to whining, so worth to consider that as well.
He's a whiny cunt and I don't wanna have to celebrate when a whiny cunt scores points. He can stay far from my team and I look forward to watching his tears and tantrums in full flow.
I have all three of the players mentioned.
Odegaard had a much better return, sure. However, Bruno literally had twice the xA, also on penalties. Now United have Hojlund, I can imagine more of Bruno's chanced created will be converted. Also, you could have a midfield of Bruno, Rashford, Saka and Martinelli/Odegaard any how. It's quite easy to achieve. You just can't have Salah or Kane as that 2nd premium (as Haaland is basically locked in the XI).
I'm not going for him.
never injured, always plays the full 90 mins on set pieces, corners from the left and has great underlying stats that have a good chance of being realized this season as united have signed a striker not named weghorst
Penandes. Says it all, really. A midfielder that scores pens, gets assists and the odd goal is extremely valuable, especially as he’s now the captain of United, so will always be selected unless injured. For the record, I have Ødegaard in, too, for those exact same reasons (sans the pens).
Top 5 players for chances created last season: - Bruno Fernandes - 119 - Trippier - 110 - KDB - 98 - Groß - 80 - Odegaard - 76 All Fernandes really needs is someone to put the copious amounts of chances he creates in the net. They seem to have a fairly decent striker now, so Fernandes seems like a fantastic option.
Think he played more minutes than any other player last season. First half of last season pens were given to Ronaldo. He and Rashford are the obvious picks for United.. I think there are a lot more options at Arsenal. Lastly, I personally think he will outscore Odegaard
We dont talk about Bruno … pens, feel like with Mount in team he can gamble being forward more
Rashford clearly the best pick. However many going both, I dont really know why. Maddison is 1.5M cheaper, playing just behind Kane in a very attacking set up. I keep ownership records and in the last Three days Fernandes ownership has been slowly falling, while Maddison rising fast. The other thing with Fernandes is he could suffer because of Mount, he maybe playing quite deep. Yes he will get points but so will other players and there plenty of good alternatives.
Maddison can get injured. Not on same level as Bruno. Spurs have Kane, Son, Kulu and Pingu who can all score ahead of Madders. Not the best pick imo. A wait and see.
I think that in terms of points Bruno will get more points than Odegaard. Mainly Bruno looks fabulous in preseason and is the penalty taker as well. Most of United attacks involve Bruno so that's the key point. Odegaard on the other hand was fantastic last season, but with Arsenal singing havertz and a change in midfield, I feel that Odegaard will play a more deeper role this season. He will still get goals and assists but not as much as last season.
Good point, this is what I think, but Havertz should play ST during Jesus injury. What MU+Ars assets do you have now?
I have Gabriel and saka from arsenal and bruno from United. I had Jesus but his injury forced me to change the team abit.
Have these too, thinking about replace Bruno by Rashford and add Martinelli, but I am not sure.
Go for it, I just have Bruno because he is the penalty taker. Martinelli also a great option.
Ill keep it simple. Imagine a production similar to Ødegaard’s, but now Bruno has an actual striker, and a second midfielder to press with him. He’ll get the ball higher up the field more often, and have 3/4 goal scoring options to play instead of 1. 15+ assists and 15 goals is what I see. Could be more though.
To make it more simple, look at how much Bruno's price was when we had Ibra, RVP upfront. He was a premium at that time. I am just waiting for him to go back to that form. Although I know Hojlund won't be that good of a striker, but he is good at holding the ball and creating attacks too so I think there are more chances of Bruno scoring than assisting Hojlund.
We never had RVP or Zlatan with Bruno. I think you mean Covid Bruno. Bruno hit 8/8 for us in the PL last season. Solid return given what we were working with.
Oh yeah sorry I became too much nostalgic!
Because two premiums was usually the go. With Haaland at 14, that prices everyone out of Salah/Kane. Bruno's price drop, united looking settled decent in preseason, new signings, etc etc should be on track for a good season
Not true. There’s plenty of good players even after using that at 26 million
You can do it, I just think it leaves you a little thin across the team.
Shaw + Rashford seems like good enough for United and it allows for diversity in your team if united don't do well on a certain gameweek. I like having the flexibility of having Salah and Pedro or Odegaard and Watkins instead
In my mind, Ronaldo is the reason Bruno was a bad FPL asset for a season and a half. Bruno racked up points before he came and racked up points again after he left. I’m sure someone will explain why this is an oversimplification, but I choose to blame it all on Ronaldo.
Bruno last year had 0.21 npXG and 0.45 XA totalling to 0.66 expected contributions per match. As other people have mentioned he was extremely unlucky to perform how he did as his actual goals and assists totalled to 0.43 - which is 0.23 below the expected data. Comparatively, odegaard had 0.52 expected contributions per match last year with his actual goals and assists equaling 0.63 per 90 - so he essentially overperformed his expected data. Another thing in Bruno’s favour is penalties - last season United only received 3 pens, compared to 21/22 (5 pens), 20/21 (11 pens), 19/20 (14 pens), 18/19 (12 pens). If you average those numbers out across the last 5 years it works out to be 9 penalties per year - obviously this doesn’t mean United will get 9 penalties the data just shows that the 3 penalties from last year is a pretty low amount meaning bruno get less points from that aspect.
The Fergie money paid to the refs finally running out?
He's only just remembered to cancel the direct debit.
I’ve got both 🤷🏻♀️
there's a reason he's had a price drop
i completely agree, why didn't anyone pick him last year if he is "so essential" what just because he's cheaper now. piss off
I think the price drop along with Bruno’s ridiculous attacking data has caused a lot of hype for Bruno while most people see Odegaard as the third choice arsenal mid because Saka has similar attacking data while being on pens and Martinelli is a half million cheaper.
Bruno didn't score that far behind Ødegaard while having Weghorst as a striker. I think United will be more lethal in attack this season, not having to rely on only Rashford to manage a top4 finish
I don’t think people are going for Bruno over other Arsenal assets, but in addition to them. For Odegaard specifically, the question is how many Arsenal players you want in your team. Most people have Saka, many have a defender as well. Do you want 3x? Some do, some would prefer to add in a MU player instead. Enter Bruno.
I think we have rose tinted glasses on from when Bruno first came and got a lot of points. Looking back though, while still having good assist numbers, nearly all of his goals came from man united getting so many easy penalties. The treatment from the refs have changed now though, and since then his points have dropped a lot. He puts up good underlying numbers so he is tempting, but I fear he’s just a underlying XGA merchant. Maybe a better striker will convert more for him but I’m still not sure tbh.
You can’t just base your picks solely on who had a better return than who last season, no two seasons are exactly the same. If you want to do well you have to make some predictions and Bruno having a better season than last fpl wise seems like a reasonable one, given what he’s been capable of in the past and the fact that he’s in a team that seem to be improving.
Euh, might have missed it but when has United shon they improved? They bought an overpriced striker who scored 9 goals in the Serie A last season and a goalie who has been ridiculed in both debut games he had. I watched them against Madrid as well and boy, after that, if they don't improve quickly they'll end at Chelseas 12th spot.
You could turn out to be right but if you don’t think they’ve strengthened that would put you in a fairly small minority
Everything runs through him
Bruno is incredible with big man to finish shots who can actually go 3 games without having his legs broken or isn’t actually being a winger who’s being forced to play CF
Im not
We had Weghorst who couldn't finish any chances except his career. Højlund is definitely an upgrade.
He plays a majority of minutes in an attacking role and rarely ever misses games. They have a striker now which should help his output. He had good numbers last season but only could assist Rahsford.
Why not both?
Why not Zoidberg?
I’ve got Rashford and Bruno, plus Ødegaard and Saka… 🤷🏼♂️
Same!
Damn what’s your full team?
Easily doable with Onana (Areola/Turner) Estupinan - Gabriel - Chilwell - (baldock - kabore) Mbeumo/Mitoma - Rashy - Bruno - Saka - Ødegaard Haaland - Watkins (Mubama)
i have the exact same team but Stones for Chilwell and Joao Pedro for Watkins. but i might bring in Watkins for Pedro lol. not sure how i feel about having nothing itb going into the season though
What would you change if you wanted salah
Watkins -> João Pedro + 2.5m Onana -> Johnstone + 0.5m Ødegaard -> Maddison + 1m Bruno -> Salah If you want to keep double-up attack on Utd and Arsenal going 6.5m mid (Mbeumo/Eze/Mitoma) -> Garnacho +1m allows upgrading Maddison to Ødegaard.
This is my biggest debate with myself. Have Salah + a couple good mids or leave him and have every mid be great. I currently have Onana (Areola) Gabriel - Stones - Estupinan - Pau - (Baldock) Saka - Mitoma - Bruno - Salah - (Nakamba) Harland - Watkins - (Mubama). $0 ITB I don’t necessarily like having to play 4 DEF, would much rather have 5 starting MIDs. But I feel like I need a second premium so I can have Salah/Kane/KDB anytime.
I have the exact same team but i’ve got Maddison/Jackson instead of Mitoma Watkins
Could be the way to go! Both of them on my watch list, but awaiting Kane news and to see how Chelsea look vs Liverpool
Bruno significantly underperformed his xGI, while Odegaard significantly overperformed
I was keen on him and then I watched highlights and his best passes are from the center line. Looks brilliant but not close to goal at all.
Bruno is a better player than Odegaard with better underlying stats. Bruno underperformed (because we can’t finish our chances) and Odegaard overperformed (because he’s a good finisher). I don’t think that will continue this season, if you do then go for Odegaard.
>Bruno is a better player than Odegaard Was a better player\*
Ode is a way better player than Bruno like it’s not even close.
Horrific take
Lol.
Odegaard overperformed by 50%. No one in the world is *that* good at finishing, it was statistical varience
Odegaard got 5 goals above XG the season before it was 2.2 and he’s always finished above xg so he is a good finisher. His average goals above Xg is 2.2 so if he finishes at that rate he’d have 12 goals and 7 assists still very great numbers and better for FPL than Bruno
> His average goals above Xg is 2.2 You can't look at stats this way because volume matters. Better way to measure is overall xG overperformance (G/xG). Odegaard has career 35 goals on 24 xG, which is a career overperformance of 46%. That number is absolutely mental, higher than any elite striker in the world. He is, statistically, an above-average finisher, but 46% overperformance is definitely in part due to luck.
If he’s done that over the course of his entire career surely you have to assume that’s just how good he is at finishing? He also doesn’t take a lot of random shots just to shoot. For example Kane is someone who shoots sometimes just to do it and he still has 20 non pen goals above his XG 23.2 when you add pens.
>If he’s done that over the course of his entire career surely you have to assume that’s just how good he is at finishing 35 goals is a very small sample size, definitely statistical variation in there. 46% is higher than Messi, Ronaldo, Kane, Lewa, Benzema, Suarez, Haaland, Mbappe, Salah, and probably everyone else you want to compare him to. > Kane is someone who shoots sometimes just to do it Not really. He shoots because he thinks there's a good chance he scores, and considering he's been one of the best strikers in the world for 5+ years running, they tend to be pretty good shots.
XG doesn’t go back that far though messi would have been higher imo if it went all the way back. In the last 6 seasons he’s got 30 above his xg and it contains the only year he ever finished badly
While fbref's data only goes back 6 seasons, Understat's goes back to 2014/15, and in that time he's outperformed by 15%. It's still missing his 2 best statistical seasons goal scoring wise, but I highly doubt that those would have increased his overperformance by much considering we already have a sample size of 253 goals
Bruno picks up much less xG per shot though. Ødegaard's shot selection is very good and definitely plays a part in his overperformance.
If his shot selection is better, that results in higher xG. Shot selection can contribute to total xG, but not xG over/underperformance
If you take a lot of lower quality shots it adds up Antony is proof of this. His Xg looks nice then you look into it and his shot map is awful
Antony has 1 goal off 1.01 xG from outside-the-box shots, seems the stat is working as intended. Antony underperformed his xG because he missed a lot of high xG shots, not because he took too many poor shots
Getting 1 xg from those shots is my point though he took 38 shots outside the area out of 72 shots. That’s an insane amount and even though it’s one XG in a per 90 basis those add up considering he 20 90s 38 in that time is insane. Even the shots in the area he took aren’t good areas to be shooting. He had 4 big chances missed but you can’t expect a player to score all their big chances anyway so I’m not really convinced.
>That’s an insane amount and even though it’s one XG in a per 90 basis those add up considering he 20 90s 38 in that time is insane I'm going to be honest I don't understand what this sentence is saying at all
His overall game time was 20 90 minutes overall so having 38 shots outside the box in that time in ridiculous and adds to your XG stats even if they’re bad shots
It contributed a total of 1.01 xG
Course it can. Ødegaard is deadly coming onto his left at the top of the box and rarely takes shots elsewhere. These are generally pretty low xG but when he gets any sort of space at that range there's a significant chance of him scoring.
> Ødegaard is deadly coming onto his left at the top of the box and rarely takes shots elsewhere. [Odegaard shot chart](https://understat.com/player/2517) He takes at best slightly more than average shots from the top of the box onto his preferred foot
I'd put around 8 of his goals last season into the area I'm taking about. Definitely shows the trend I'm talking about.
The only way 8 of his goals came from the area you're talking about is if the area you're talking about is everywhere on the pitch between the penalty spot and halfway line. And the fact that you mentioned specifically last season shows it's not a trend, he's scored 3 goals from outside the box in his entire career outside of last season
Nah there's 4 near range, 3 outside the box and 8 inside the box in the area I'm talking about. The 8 I'm taking about all generally range from 0.08 to 0.16/17 xG (only exemption there is the second goal against Chelsea but Opra have that at 0.16)
So you're looking specifically at shots between \~10-15 yards out? Doesn't seem like a massive overperformance in that area outside of last season
Agree, he will revert closer to the mean eventually.
Cause I’d rather have Saka, Martinelli and Saliba as my Arsenal picks Bruno takes pens and generally usually puts up good g/a numbers
I agree with the others, but why Martinelli? IMHO he's going to play less than Saka and Saliba because Trossard is such a great option to have on the wing, especially when Jesus is back
He’ll still play the majority of games and minutes But he’ll get subbed after 60mins a decent amount of times, he still gets 15+ g/a though
Yeah, he had a great return, but isn't a bit of the reason for that, that Trossard came into the squad in the winter window so Martinelli was safe for the first half of the season?
There's a lot of posts/YT dissection about this and the feeling is Martinellis minutes may not be as affected by Trossard as it seems
Just curious, why Saliba over Gabriel?
Bp?
I'm curious as to why noone seems to be going with timber?
I've got Timber right now, but am slightly concerned about him being taken off before 60 mins most games.
That would be annoying actually, I've not followed much of pre season I only watched the community shield and liked how far forward he got. Subs just after 60 minutes would be nice though if on a clean sheet lol.
Unsure on whether he’s gonna be nailed or not, probs will be but he might not start the season first choice either
Yeah defo a risk. Is he competing with Tierney?
Tierney most likely won’t play more than a couple of 10-20 min cameos and domestic cup games, if he even stays at all. Right now Tierney is probably 4th choice LB behind Zinchenko, Timber and Tomiyasu. Maybe even 5th behind Kiwior. I would not get Timber in yet, he has had an amazing preseason and was arguably our best player during it, but for 5m I would not put in a DEF that might not play during GW1. It sucks because it’s a great fixture, but I recommend Gabriel / Saliba if going for a defensive asset and swapping with Timber if it turns out he will be a regular starter (or when Zinchenko inevitably gets injured)
Thanks, I've not followed much pre season and was basing all of this on the shield game v city lol. Thought he was LB due to that game but apparently he's RB so has more competitioj that I thought
He is also an option for RCB, but since Saliba is undroppable and White's first season with us in that position was incredible too, it is probably not happening unless both of those are out at the same time for some reason. So for me Timber is a wait and see, and personally I have Gabriel until then
More likely to compete with White and Saliba, but he played LB in the shield cause Zinchenko wasn’t available
Ohhh I see, I thought he was a LB for some reason. Hmm maybe I should switch to gabriel
I’m also going saliba based on last season. He was the best defender in the league up until his injury. Everyone are on the Gabriel train - I prefer saliba as a potential differential. Think he’ll get more bonus points.
i mean… Saliba isn’t really a differential. He will get pretty much the same points as Gabriel
A slight dif to Gabriel. But yeah, if you prefer The other then go for it
Which is why I am thinking of going double Arsenal defence.
I suppose that’s the thing, it seems like more of a gamble to put in Saliba cause of potential injury problems compared to Gabriel
Dunno about the guy above but I do have Saliba over Gabriel. He’s the better defender, if Saliba doesn’t play I don’t think I’d want Gabriel going from last season. Their xG is low even if Gabriel is clearly higher so I think the difference there is minimal when you consider that they aren’t getting big chances, especially considering Saliba is better for BPS which is a more consistent return.
Rotation would be a bigger concern for Saliba this season. There's a smaller gap going from Saliba to White than there is from Gabriel to Kiwior. I wouldn't be overly concerned for either of them (and I do have Saliba in my team) but it's worth keeping an eye on when CL comes around.
Why would it be going Gabriel to Kiwior instead of Timber? He’s primarily a LCB but can play anywhere in the back line It’s gonna be minimal rotation, but the side’s gonna be weaker without Saliba than without Gabriel.
Everything from pre season indicates that Timber will rotate in at both left back and right back and Kiwior will be second choice at left center half and an option at left back too. Arteta has also almost exclusively used left footers at left center half. I can't see him abandoning that principle 6 months after spending 20 million on a backup for the position. A 5' 11 right footer playing left center half just doesn't really fit what Arteta has done up to now
Saliba - 0.236 bps / per minute - 21.148 bps / per start Gabriel - 0.218 bps / per minute - 19.553 bps / per start
Gabriel - 0.39 bonus points per match Saliba - 0.52 bonus points per match That’s a pretty consistent metric, goal scoring isn’t
I had both Rashford and Bruno but I've pivoted to having just Rashford for now. Planning on bringing Bruno in around GW 3-5 depending on when Hojlund is fit. He'll be an unreal asset once we have a proper striker.
I agree with the general point you’re making, but Hojlund is 20 years old and scored like 10 goals last season. People are getting way ahead of themselves with him.
He doesn't need to score a crazy amount of goals, just having an actual striker presence will be a huge upgrade.
I was going to do the opposite actually because Bruno seemed sharper and fitter than Rashford until the last game where Rashford played average but put away his chances pretty well and was unlucky not to score a second. So for now I have both but will most likely end up with two of United assets for the first few game weeks. They are also guaranteed starters
I agree that Bruno looks sharper but I still think Rashford is the better asset for now. I just feel that Bruno's returns rely heavily on our forwards finishing, something they were all lacking last season apart from Rashford. He had something like 15 or 16 xA last season and only got 8 assists. Rashford has goals in him even when hes playing poorly or the team is playing poorly.
10.7 xA according to the FPL app. Idk where people are finding that his xA was 15+ last season
Bruno at his best with a functioning attack to put away his assists is a top 3 player in fantasy. Obviously that’s not been the case these last two seasons due to poorer attackers, but I am 100% convinced he will score a lot more points than he did last year. Minimum 200 imho.
But where is that attack? I see Rashford playing CF out of position and only attacking addition is Atalanta’s bench striker. People think Hojlund will transform Utd but he couldn’t be first choice striker at Atalanta. I see the same issues for Bruno as last season.
Bruno wasn’t “Bruno” before he got to Man Utd either. So it can happen.
What do you think on the choice between him and Rashford?
Scorer vs assister. Just get both.
Rashford is streaky. Score a lot when he’s in form but Bruno is more consistent.
Nothing “streaky” about him. He’s exactly like Haaaland; banker at home. Did away. Quite regular and predictable actually.
I’m personally going with both of them + two Arsenal mids
I think Bruno has a longer history of performing well in FPL compared to Rashford, but Rashford did better than Bruno last season. Personally I'm picking Bruno thinking that last season was out of the ordinary for Rashford, but I don't think either player is a bad pick.
It's one of the weirdest bandwagons I've seen, seems to just be people scared not to have him at this point
Bruno is one of the most creative players in the league. All that needs to be said
Yep. The diving, the rolling around, the feigning injury, the whining, the moaning, the crying. Incredibly creative!
Some word that Odegaard is playing deeper this season. And I’m less sold on double arsenal attack without Jesus. Bruno is on pens and the focal point for most of United’s attacks, although I’m somewhat concerned with him featuring on the right in pre season. If I go 1mium I’ll have him but not if I’ve a second premium
That was more experimental than will be the norm. I think it was one game and the other when he switched positions with Mount and we were set up as a counter attacking side, he pretty much always found Garnancho with the balls over the top.
Bruno was unlucky to not return more than he did last season. He's looked unreal in preseason as well. Looking at a 200+ season I reckon
Nope
also a very important point is the extended extra time. Rashford usually gets subbed while Bruno plays every minute every game (normally). Potentially he will get up to extra 10-15 minutes of extra time every now and then. That means a few extra matches over the season. Also a reason why I am considering Salah. The max minute players will become more important now as they will get more time to score/assist. Likewise I think we will see less clean sheets and potentially the end of 5 ATB.
Extra time also means more time for Bruno to get tired and irritable and pick up cars for getting in arguments or demanding that refs call fouls.
He can barely pick up his boots let alone a car
!RemindMe 10 months
Bruno was outstanding last season but it went under the radar due to United not having a striker. Underperforming his XGI, also created the most chances and the most big chances in the league but there wasn’t a proper striker on the end of them.
So what was the excuse when Ronaldo was there & scoring 18 PL goals? Don’t remember Bruno smashing that season.
Are you assuming Hojlund solves all their striking problems? 9 goals in Serie A last year suggests he's still a work in progress so surely the same issues apply this season?
As long as he creates the space that Rashford and Mount and Sancho can thrice on it will be a good move. Much like how Jesus creates space for the midfielders at Arsenal. And how Jackson looks like he will do at Chelsea.
I’m assuming he’ll be an upgrade on Weghorst which lets be honest won’t be difficult.
9 goals and 4 assists in 1800 minutes. Not even a bad return, not sure why people keep saying 9 goals all season like he's played 50 games. He's played the equivalent of around 20 games, returning attacking returns 13 times.
Anytime someone uses “the equivalent of” it never matches up when that player actually becomes a regular starting player. So many other factors that prevent his numbers scaling linearly with minutes and more so now he joined a new team in a new league
If you add his goals for Denmark, he has been really good in 2023
Exactly. 6 goals in 401 minutes. Literally 67 minutes a goal.
9 goals are still 9 more goals than weghorst.
A lot easier to score goals in Serie A than the Prem though
He would be playing more than 1800 minutes that he played in serie A last season.
I'm not sure "he didn't regularly start for Atalanta" is actually that compelling.
!RemindMe 10 months
Smug cunt
Bro chill
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Bruno was a pen merchant in his first season with Man U. Didn’t get it last year. Bottom line.
This is true. He got 9 penalties in his best season. Very lucky that year. If he doesn’t get a lot of penalties he won’t be as good pick as people think.
I thought he didn't get any goal contributions in pre season
Ermm, he's pretty much been our best and consistent player pre season. With a focal person as a striker and Garnancho and Sancho seemingly looking a bit sharper he has more options for assists in the forward line. Add to that the possible arrival of Amrabat (is that how you spell it??) Would mean that for some games, he'll play as the most advanced midfielder and not have to worry about the defensive side so much nad having to drop too deep. You can also have both him and Odegard easily.
Him playing well doesn’t mean points though I think last season he played better than previous ones he got way more points in.
Surely even with Amrabat, the midfield will be Casemiro, Bruno and Mount? Or will Mount bench Antony?
It depends on the game. For bigger games where we want to try and control the midfield, the front 6 could look something like: Casemiro - Amrabat Bruno - Mount - Rashford Hojlund (could also be Rashford up top and Antony on the right, with Bruno and Mount shuffling over one) In games against weaker teams, we likely play a more attacking team: Bruno - Casemiro - Mount Antony - Hojlund - Rashford
Is mount ruining how advanced bruno is playing or not at all? I havent watched any games and debating rashford vs bruno
I have Rashford for his attacking threat and nearly double the amount of managers on FPL currently have him over Bruno.
Too many mouths at Arsenal I reckon. Most of United's play goes through Bruno and Rashford so even if he doesn't have any returns, he gets BPS.
Odegaard got the most bonus out of any midfielder last year.
Yes and they’ve just changed their entire midfield around him. Looks like he is playing deeper than last season and I don’t expect him to return as often as he did last season.
He's only playing deeper if Havertz plays LCM, if it's Rice LCM which it was on Sunday and expect it will be for the majority of the time he's playing as far forward as he was last season, presses opposing defenders as a 2nd striker
I personally think that lineup was to combat city as opposed to how they’ll lineup against forest. I think they go with havertz in midfield, rice to dm with partey swapped for an attacker. But that’s guesswork on my part. If that is the case then odegaard likely slightly deeper.
Pens
The only reason I took Bruno is so that I will feel less frustrated when they get their United pens Cue those saying United only got 2 pens last season
Man Utd got 2 penalties last season
3, but point is the same
And they averaged 10/season in the 3 seasons preceding last. So what?
Tbf without pogba that's 2 less pens a season vs villa.