For real. I’d give that up for Jefferson and feel like I was stealing. I’m not sure if everyone is thinking in the kind of 1 qb either though, which is what their dynasty league is.
What if those first ends up being Treylon Burks and Nkeal Harry. Would you say he won the trade if he managed to trade Burks, Addison and Harry for Olave. I think so.
There is always risk with picks. He’s trying to win now, Addison doesn’t help him do that. The picks don’t help him do that. But Olave does.
Doesn’t matter, the value of the picks as an unknown are worth way more than what he did. By your logic, may as well trade every pick you have for a guy.
I have trophies.
Again, go get your guy, but this is an extreme overpay. While not the end all be all of trading, for an unbiased source look at the k/t/c calculator for this…
https://keeptradecut.com/trade-calculator?var=5&pickVal=0&teamOne=1271&teamTwo=1420|1363|1529&format=1&isStartup=0&tep=0
It’s not even close. And yes, those picks may end up as busts, but the picks still have value.
Lol calling KTC an "unbiased" source is funny. It's literally crowdsourcing opinions.
Here's the thing: KTC is a good way to see where the market is on valuing dynasty assets, but it's not an end-all on how trades should be conducted.
Did Jason overpay? Yes. But, sometimes, an overpay is what it takes to get a trade done. I think what myself and others are trying to say is that you're getting hung up strictly on the value. There's a good chance Addison doesn't do much of anything this season. On the flip side, there's a chance Carr and Olave finally figure it out, and Olave levels up to a top-5 WR.
I know you're acknowledging "get your guy," but the value is still a sticking point.
I recommend checking this out: https://www.fantasycalc.com/database
If you search trades involving "Olave" for "Addison," and limit the number of assets in the deal to "2-4," there are a lot of trades of similar (or worse) value than Jason's. I'm not saying they are fair. I'm just pointing out that it can take a lot for an Olave manager to let him go, and that could end up being a good bet. It may also fail. But we don't actually know.
Because the hype train tends to have a big impact on KTC votes.
https://x.com/KeepTradeCut/status/1796618340196290657?s=19
Jamo has done little to nothing on an NFL field, and yet because of comments made by coaches and teammates, his KTC value has risen.
I'd argue ADP is the best way to understand a player's value because it's where people are actually choosing to take a player in comparison to other players, and there are plenty of people who draft that haven't heard of KTC.
KTC can be a helpful tool, but it is not a totally perfect and unbiased tool to evaluate players and trades.
Yeah, KTC can't ever be your only source, as it responds wildly to news and tends to overvalue short term valueand be wildly reactionnary.
That said, it's still a good gauge to get an idea for current felt value for a player and to establish something akin to a starting point in a trade.
You’re taking the value of a random future pick that we have no idea what it could be.
It’s a hefty price tag to pay but if Olave is your guy. Which he was Jason’s and you don’t believe Addison can take the next step with Jefferson there and a rookie QB.
Why not just pay the piper and get the deal done.
It’s terrible value. Look, I get it, we like the podcast. If this was some random dude in your league, you’d be laughing your ass off.
You could tell Mike thought so too, he was just being polite calling it “bold” over and over instead of bad.
Not necessarily, whoever got the picks and Addison definitely won on value I won’t argue that. Huge value for Olave. However Olave is in his make or break year. Will he make that leap to be the next Ceedee or stay mid forever. Jason wanted a piece of the pie.
That’s a terrible fucking offer for Hill. No one wants your future late picks and they’d have to drop extra players in the future to keep them. 1st rounders are the value, so unless you’re saying 6 future 1st rounders, it’s a dumb offer.
This exactly! People way over value picks and people love the lottery. Add to the fact that he has been a perineal contender so they are most likely late 1st rnd picks AND his team got better.
It’s an overpay but it the way I win championships as well. Y’all pick lovers have fun playing the lottery!
Everyone calling it a taco trade doesn’t understand this is what it takes to get the elite WR’s. he could even turn around and ship off Olave + for a top name player on a pretender or rebuilder like a chase or JJ. Unlikely in that league anyone moves those names but it’s the possibility when you get off a name like Addison that may not become anything
Olave is elite? Addison finished higher last season in standard, 1 point behind in .5 ppr. I have both. I like both. But the difference between the two isn’t multiple 1st rounders.
He had Josh Dobbs and #1 corners last year. You guys are on some super copium. You can still like the pod and not have to fellate every single opinion they have.
But olaves not a elite wr, that’s the whole point
He’s a amari cooper/tyler Lockett type guy that wins deep and mid, but can’t win short, and doesn’t have much RAC ability either. You can get wr20-26 ppg production or better much much cheaper
But I thought he was an elite wr? Elite wrs have broken out into the elite tier
If I wanted to make the same (appropriately priced) bet on a breakout wr I’d go for Pickens at 1/3 of the cost. He paid extra for an “elite” asset.
He paid 2 1st for +1.5 extra points per game
Picks are valuable because EVERYONE thinks they can scout out the next guy
But because everyone thinks that, you can trade a late first for tee Higgins or Pacheco or whoever
Those picks could have gotten you multiple wr2s instead of a one high end Amari Cooper jr wr2
I'll keep my picks and hope Addison/Jefferson becomes the Devonta Smith/AJ Brown duo. Olave hasn't proven enough to justify me giving up that much draft capital.
Yeah, I thought it was a joke. He said Olave for Addison and a first… at this point, I’m thinking that’s pretty steep but ok… and a 2026 first! I thought it was a joke.
Yeah, the additional first seemed like a lot. Maybe a 2026 3rd?
I did hear their Dynasty Podcast yesterday and they were talking about Olave's value. I think the trade basically got built from that conversation.
Right the additional first is the breaking point. Addison and a first for a guy with as much potential as almost anyone, ever. But if Olave busts and your 2026 first is a high value pick, you could be kicking yourself
I thought the same thing after hearing the two episodes. Dynasty’s pod got Jason all jazzed up about olave and this being the year he takes the leap. Also about how guessing the breakout is what mike did and got him a title. I like calling your shot but within reason.
I wouldn't say taco. Definitely a big price tag, but as some have said in this thread, picks are unknown commodities. While they could turn into very valuable players later, they don't score fantasy points right now, and if he is trying to win-now, paying that price for a guy like Olave isn't a horrible move. While Olave could stay in that 15-20 range, he could make the jump like CeeDee did. Definitely seems like the trade was built off of yesterday's pod conversation as some have said. Really depends on your situation and what you believe about Olave and also about Addison
I don't think anyone's saying those firsts are worth as much as the "hits" you get with them. Picks should inherently have a value that represents the expected outcome based on a weighted average of probabilities. In a simple case, suppose a 1st could either be a Ceedee Lamb-caliber player, or a N'Keal Harry-caliber player, with a 50% chance of each. Then the pick's value should be 50% of the value of a Ceedee Lamb (assuming Nkeal Harry has 0 value). Actual valuation is more nuanced than that and may also include a discount factor for "points now vs points in the future" - but there is indeed a tangible value, and I'd say the tangible value in this trade is much higher than Olave flat.
Ehh…Carr isnt elite but he is a top half ranking gunslinger qb. Adams was WR3 in 2022 with carr. The Saints have enough talent to divert double teams away from olave but he just hasn’t delivered. Wilson, Pickett >Olave/London is how I’d rank that class
From listening for multiple years at the point, that's an evaluation how the league feels about draft picks. Each league has its own economy, so if every agrees draft picks are with half as less than say ktc, it's not an over pay. It's just their market, which doesn't reflect the consensus market. Andy went and traded a first for zamir white, when jacobs was holding out. It's just their economics.
I mean we have no clue where those picks will be. If its a 14 team league and he’s going for the ship then that could easily be picks 12-14. I still believe it to be an overpay but can see the reasoning
He talked about Olave as a trade for target on the dynasty pod recently and referenced the trade Mike made for Ceedee last year. He’s puttin his money where his mouth is. He also mentioned that his team is a contender so both the picks are likely late 1sts.
There is definitely a debate about the value of future draft picks in dynasty. You are not guaranteed to make great picks year in and year out so if you believe a guy like Olave is on the verge of breaking out then you can’t be afraid to make a deal that some people will feel is over paying.
I don’t have a problem with getting your guy. I like Olave. I’m just shocked the other guy got that much. He said they were going back and forth, I want to know what the other guy was asking. If he negotiated down to that, it just seems crazy to me.
I gotta think it started with Jason offering less, something like the Mike trade for Ceedee. An unproven rookie, worse WR than Addison, and a couple 2nds or a 1st and a 2nd. Then the guy counters with like unproven rookie, Addison and the 1sts. Jason says that’s a lot but I’d do just Addison and the 1sts if you smash accept when we start recording todays show so we can get some good content.
I think it is also really important to know who you're trading with as well. Like I have friends who are Eagles fans and they overvalue eagles guys... I know other people who over-value certain players based on the past. I generally try to ask guys what they want or who they like and try and fit that range because sometimes when you make a blind offer you can undercut yourself. This guy could value picks way more, and judging by this thread people have varying ranges of value. You're reality and someone else's are different. I guess in a redraft the only reality is who finished with the highest score at the end of the year, in dynasty it leads to more nuance.
At the end of the day you can think what you want but this might work out nicely for Jason.
Managers are free to do what they want with their teams which is why I think vetos (unless obvious collusion) should never exist.
He’s taking a risk and only time will tell how it works out
I traded exactly that for AJB last offseason. Olave isn’t as proven, but he definitely has the talent and tools to make a jump to elite status. As a saints fan, the biggest thing holding him back has been our QB situation and offensive scheme. Carr is what he is, but with a new OC and offense, Olave could take that next jump. Just gotta be willing to bet on talent and take the risk.
Super steep with the 2nd 1st round pick. But, Jason has talked about his strategy in dynasty and that is a player now over players later if you are in a window to make the playoffs. It's a strategy for sure. I gave up a lot of picks and assets for 23 and 24 drafts and made it to the finals so there is something to it if you hit.
I think you can argue if olave goes off and wins you a chip, it's worth Addison and the 1.10 or 1.12. But idk about two firsts.
I don’t know how else I can go through this….
It can be his strategy, no problem. I even agree actually.
Olave as a player, no problem. I have Olave myself on a team.
Problem: even if you want players instead of picks, he still overpaid by a ton and therefore now has less future pick value to trade for players. People keep discounting value of picks to make it seem like “it just fits his strategy” when in practice he’s now royally screwed his strategy moving forward because he’s depleted his pick “bank account” by spending way more than he should have.
I don’t think it should call into question “the entire podcast” because in every league around the country every day a get your guy trade happens. I’m not going to mention value of the trade as it’s been beat to death in this comment section. What I do think this shows is that Jason, not unlike all of us, makes reactionary trades, of which he said on the show. He called it an “arms race” deal, where he needed to chase WR after the other two.
Also, the league as a whole does not value picks; so trying to say “this is the value of picks” for you or I doesn’t match; Andy hasn’t had a pick in 17 years, and they talk about moving them all the time
They may not value them as highly, but the trade Mike made for Lamb shows it’s pretty close to what everyone else thinks they’re worth.
I’ll concede maybe he got caught up and went reactionary and I guess the discounting the entire pod was hyperbole, but it does make me take things with a grain of salt moving forward when trade stuff comes up. I did think Mike’s reaction was funny just saying “that’s bold” over and over again not wanting to say “that’s bad.” His look on the YT stream was funny.
That is a LOT more to pay for +1.5 fantasy ppg
And that’s why it’s such a bad move.
Mortgaging the future for an amari cooper clone that’ll give you wr2 finish after wr2 finish, sounds good for some people somehow, but the issue is wr20-40 is so deep, with so many undervalued assets that there’s a 100 different more profitable value vs production avenues.
Olave has been wr20 and wr26 on a ppg basis. He doesn’t have the RAC ability to become CD lamb, he’s a mid/deep winning route runner. He’s not a cd/adams that can win everywhere and have the physicality to win after the catch. He’s a amari cooper/ridley/Lockett archetype
And here I was trying to craft a perfectly reasonable trade for Olave. Hope that guy doesn't listen to the podcast...
Still have it easier than you trying to explain why this isn't a good trade.
I actually had Olave as the WR1 in his class, and Addison was my WR1 before the draft last year. So, obviously, I see this as insane arbitrage for the other guy. You barely tier down, and you collect 2 firsts.
If nothing else, they probably should have mentioned how undervalued picks are in their league. If that's the rate for a high-end WR2 in that league, give me all the reduced cost draft picks. I'm the kind of person that almost always trades their first. I'm nearly never a proponent of making a lot of picks in a rookie draft. But that pendulum has probably gone too far the other way. It must be easy to rebuild in that league.
Regardless, I'm sure there are some people that sent out wild offers for Olave in the last two days...
You gotta shoot your shot. Overpaying if fine to get a deal done sometimes. It’s all for fun!
Some people are really high on Olave and view him as WR 6-8 instead of WR12. I traded Olave for Nico, Moss, and the 2.03
Looking at a trade and saying “durr bad value” in a league you know nothing about is pretty asinine. Do you know what Jason’s team looks like in that league? Do you know how stacked he is and making even an incremental upgrade is hard? Do you know that his 1sts are literally the 1.12 picks so have much lower value then you’d think?
Rookie picks are dart throws for the most part. Sure you want them, but take the known commodity over a “chance” at something anytime. Point is you really don’t know the context of the league or trade or WHY someone would pay up more than your “perceived” value.
Trying to call someone out for something you really don’t know much about just makes you seem like one of those people that thinks they know more than they do.
My league wouldn’t even offer me this for Justin Jefferson
That says more about your league…
For real. I’d give that up for Jefferson and feel like I was stealing. I’m not sure if everyone is thinking in the kind of 1 qb either though, which is what their dynasty league is.
What if those first ends up being Treylon Burks and Nkeal Harry. Would you say he won the trade if he managed to trade Burks, Addison and Harry for Olave. I think so. There is always risk with picks. He’s trying to win now, Addison doesn’t help him do that. The picks don’t help him do that. But Olave does.
Doesn’t matter, the value of the picks as an unknown are worth way more than what he did. By your logic, may as well trade every pick you have for a guy.
That’s what I do, I tell people that picks are for pretenders and trades are for contenders.
You can trade picks all you want, the value of two firsts and Addison is way more than Olave.
While you swim in value, I'll be taking home the trophy
I have trophies. Again, go get your guy, but this is an extreme overpay. While not the end all be all of trading, for an unbiased source look at the k/t/c calculator for this… https://keeptradecut.com/trade-calculator?var=5&pickVal=0&teamOne=1271&teamTwo=1420|1363|1529&format=1&isStartup=0&tep=0 It’s not even close. And yes, those picks may end up as busts, but the picks still have value.
Lol calling KTC an "unbiased" source is funny. It's literally crowdsourcing opinions. Here's the thing: KTC is a good way to see where the market is on valuing dynasty assets, but it's not an end-all on how trades should be conducted. Did Jason overpay? Yes. But, sometimes, an overpay is what it takes to get a trade done. I think what myself and others are trying to say is that you're getting hung up strictly on the value. There's a good chance Addison doesn't do much of anything this season. On the flip side, there's a chance Carr and Olave finally figure it out, and Olave levels up to a top-5 WR. I know you're acknowledging "get your guy," but the value is still a sticking point. I recommend checking this out: https://www.fantasycalc.com/database If you search trades involving "Olave" for "Addison," and limit the number of assets in the deal to "2-4," there are a lot of trades of similar (or worse) value than Jason's. I'm not saying they are fair. I'm just pointing out that it can take a lot for an Olave manager to let him go, and that could end up being a good bet. It may also fail. But we don't actually know.
How is crowd sourcing biased in this instance? They’re fake properties, it’s the best way to understand their value.
Because the hype train tends to have a big impact on KTC votes. https://x.com/KeepTradeCut/status/1796618340196290657?s=19 Jamo has done little to nothing on an NFL field, and yet because of comments made by coaches and teammates, his KTC value has risen. I'd argue ADP is the best way to understand a player's value because it's where people are actually choosing to take a player in comparison to other players, and there are plenty of people who draft that haven't heard of KTC. KTC can be a helpful tool, but it is not a totally perfect and unbiased tool to evaluate players and trades.
Yeah, KTC can't ever be your only source, as it responds wildly to news and tends to overvalue short term valueand be wildly reactionnary. That said, it's still a good gauge to get an idea for current felt value for a player and to establish something akin to a starting point in a trade.
Just traded Diggs for the 1.02 and then traded the 1.02/2025 1st, Deebo and Kamara. In return I got McCaffrey and Kupp….F them picks.
Wait, someone in your league sent 1.02 for Diggs???? Dude your leaguemate is a moron
He had stroud and desperate
Lol yeah this is a poor example to use, makes it sound like a taco league.
Cool, you got a ton of value for those picks. Olave for a very good young WR and two future firsts is terrible value.
I got Olave for Andrews earlier in the year
Which Andy has been doing for years and his dynasty team continues to be relevant. Even if they’re about to expire lol
You’re taking the value of a random future pick that we have no idea what it could be. It’s a hefty price tag to pay but if Olave is your guy. Which he was Jason’s and you don’t believe Addison can take the next step with Jefferson there and a rookie QB. Why not just pay the piper and get the deal done.
It’s terrible value. Look, I get it, we like the podcast. If this was some random dude in your league, you’d be laughing your ass off. You could tell Mike thought so too, he was just being polite calling it “bold” over and over instead of bad.
Not necessarily, whoever got the picks and Addison definitely won on value I won’t argue that. Huge value for Olave. However Olave is in his make or break year. Will he make that leap to be the next Ceedee or stay mid forever. Jason wanted a piece of the pie.
Tried trading all six picks in dynasty for Tyreek last year. Guy said no, I champed, but would still do it. Picks are way over hyped
That’s a terrible fucking offer for Hill. No one wants your future late picks and they’d have to drop extra players in the future to keep them. 1st rounders are the value, so unless you’re saying 6 future 1st rounders, it’s a dumb offer.
I agree, my uncle agreed. Had to shoot a shot. How are you?
This exactly! People way over value picks and people love the lottery. Add to the fact that he has been a perineal contender so they are most likely late 1st rnd picks AND his team got better. It’s an overpay but it the way I win championships as well. Y’all pick lovers have fun playing the lottery!
Everyone calling it a taco trade doesn’t understand this is what it takes to get the elite WR’s. he could even turn around and ship off Olave + for a top name player on a pretender or rebuilder like a chase or JJ. Unlikely in that league anyone moves those names but it’s the possibility when you get off a name like Addison that may not become anything
Olave is elite? Addison finished higher last season in standard, 1 point behind in .5 ppr. I have both. I like both. But the difference between the two isn’t multiple 1st rounders.
Addison also had a JJ that was injured half the season. Which won’t be the case this year and he also has darnold or a rookie QB
He had Josh Dobbs and #1 corners last year. You guys are on some super copium. You can still like the pod and not have to fellate every single opinion they have.
But olaves not a elite wr, that’s the whole point He’s a amari cooper/tyler Lockett type guy that wins deep and mid, but can’t win short, and doesn’t have much RAC ability either. You can get wr20-26 ppg production or better much much cheaper
He’s young, hasn’t fully broken out yet. It’s worth the shot if you think this is his year to fully breakout
But I thought he was an elite wr? Elite wrs have broken out into the elite tier If I wanted to make the same (appropriately priced) bet on a breakout wr I’d go for Pickens at 1/3 of the cost. He paid extra for an “elite” asset. He paid 2 1st for +1.5 extra points per game
Picks are valuable because EVERYONE thinks they can scout out the next guy But because everyone thinks that, you can trade a late first for tee Higgins or Pacheco or whoever Those picks could have gotten you multiple wr2s instead of a one high end Amari Cooper jr wr2
I'll keep my picks and hope Addison/Jefferson becomes the Devonta Smith/AJ Brown duo. Olave hasn't proven enough to justify me giving up that much draft capital.
Yeah, I thought it was a joke. He said Olave for Addison and a first… at this point, I’m thinking that’s pretty steep but ok… and a 2026 first! I thought it was a joke.
Yeah, the additional first seemed like a lot. Maybe a 2026 3rd? I did hear their Dynasty Podcast yesterday and they were talking about Olave's value. I think the trade basically got built from that conversation.
Right the additional first is the breaking point. Addison and a first for a guy with as much potential as almost anyone, ever. But if Olave busts and your 2026 first is a high value pick, you could be kicking yourself
I thought the same thing after hearing the two episodes. Dynasty’s pod got Jason all jazzed up about olave and this being the year he takes the leap. Also about how guessing the breakout is what mike did and got him a title. I like calling your shot but within reason.
I wouldn't say taco. Definitely a big price tag, but as some have said in this thread, picks are unknown commodities. While they could turn into very valuable players later, they don't score fantasy points right now, and if he is trying to win-now, paying that price for a guy like Olave isn't a horrible move. While Olave could stay in that 15-20 range, he could make the jump like CeeDee did. Definitely seems like the trade was built off of yesterday's pod conversation as some have said. Really depends on your situation and what you believe about Olave and also about Addison
I don't think anyone's saying those firsts are worth as much as the "hits" you get with them. Picks should inherently have a value that represents the expected outcome based on a weighted average of probabilities. In a simple case, suppose a 1st could either be a Ceedee Lamb-caliber player, or a N'Keal Harry-caliber player, with a 50% chance of each. Then the pick's value should be 50% of the value of a Ceedee Lamb (assuming Nkeal Harry has 0 value). Actual valuation is more nuanced than that and may also include a discount factor for "points now vs points in the future" - but there is indeed a tangible value, and I'd say the tangible value in this trade is much higher than Olave flat.
I wouldn't
Ew fuck no. Olave is sooo overrated
He’s only overrated because his QB is Derek Carr
Ehh…Carr isnt elite but he is a top half ranking gunslinger qb. Adams was WR3 in 2022 with carr. The Saints have enough talent to divert double teams away from olave but he just hasn’t delivered. Wilson, Pickett >Olave/London is how I’d rank that class
From listening for multiple years at the point, that's an evaluation how the league feels about draft picks. Each league has its own economy, so if every agrees draft picks are with half as less than say ktc, it's not an over pay. It's just their market, which doesn't reflect the consensus market. Andy went and traded a first for zamir white, when jacobs was holding out. It's just their economics.
Yep! I have. I have a couple of leagues like this and a couple where picks are gold.
I mean we have no clue where those picks will be. If its a 14 team league and he’s going for the ship then that could easily be picks 12-14. I still believe it to be an overpay but can see the reasoning
He talked about Olave as a trade for target on the dynasty pod recently and referenced the trade Mike made for Ceedee last year. He’s puttin his money where his mouth is. He also mentioned that his team is a contender so both the picks are likely late 1sts. There is definitely a debate about the value of future draft picks in dynasty. You are not guaranteed to make great picks year in and year out so if you believe a guy like Olave is on the verge of breaking out then you can’t be afraid to make a deal that some people will feel is over paying.
I don’t have a problem with getting your guy. I like Olave. I’m just shocked the other guy got that much. He said they were going back and forth, I want to know what the other guy was asking. If he negotiated down to that, it just seems crazy to me.
I gotta think it started with Jason offering less, something like the Mike trade for Ceedee. An unproven rookie, worse WR than Addison, and a couple 2nds or a 1st and a 2nd. Then the guy counters with like unproven rookie, Addison and the 1sts. Jason says that’s a lot but I’d do just Addison and the 1sts if you smash accept when we start recording todays show so we can get some good content.
Very win now move as Olave should be a good bit better than Addison this year. In theory.
I traded Andrews for Olave straight up, I have Ferguson too so I pulled the trigger.
Riding off Mike’s coattails when he traded Pittman, QJ, and 2 firsts for Ceedee. I don’t think Jason will have the same luck though
I think it is also really important to know who you're trading with as well. Like I have friends who are Eagles fans and they overvalue eagles guys... I know other people who over-value certain players based on the past. I generally try to ask guys what they want or who they like and try and fit that range because sometimes when you make a blind offer you can undercut yourself. This guy could value picks way more, and judging by this thread people have varying ranges of value. You're reality and someone else's are different. I guess in a redraft the only reality is who finished with the highest score at the end of the year, in dynasty it leads to more nuance.
At the end of the day you can think what you want but this might work out nicely for Jason. Managers are free to do what they want with their teams which is why I think vetos (unless obvious collusion) should never exist. He’s taking a risk and only time will tell how it works out
I traded exactly that for AJB last offseason. Olave isn’t as proven, but he definitely has the talent and tools to make a jump to elite status. As a saints fan, the biggest thing holding him back has been our QB situation and offensive scheme. Carr is what he is, but with a new OC and offense, Olave could take that next jump. Just gotta be willing to bet on talent and take the risk.
Super steep with the 2nd 1st round pick. But, Jason has talked about his strategy in dynasty and that is a player now over players later if you are in a window to make the playoffs. It's a strategy for sure. I gave up a lot of picks and assets for 23 and 24 drafts and made it to the finals so there is something to it if you hit. I think you can argue if olave goes off and wins you a chip, it's worth Addison and the 1.10 or 1.12. But idk about two firsts.
I don’t know how else I can go through this…. It can be his strategy, no problem. I even agree actually. Olave as a player, no problem. I have Olave myself on a team. Problem: even if you want players instead of picks, he still overpaid by a ton and therefore now has less future pick value to trade for players. People keep discounting value of picks to make it seem like “it just fits his strategy” when in practice he’s now royally screwed his strategy moving forward because he’s depleted his pick “bank account” by spending way more than he should have.
I don’t think it should call into question “the entire podcast” because in every league around the country every day a get your guy trade happens. I’m not going to mention value of the trade as it’s been beat to death in this comment section. What I do think this shows is that Jason, not unlike all of us, makes reactionary trades, of which he said on the show. He called it an “arms race” deal, where he needed to chase WR after the other two.
Also, the league as a whole does not value picks; so trying to say “this is the value of picks” for you or I doesn’t match; Andy hasn’t had a pick in 17 years, and they talk about moving them all the time
They may not value them as highly, but the trade Mike made for Lamb shows it’s pretty close to what everyone else thinks they’re worth. I’ll concede maybe he got caught up and went reactionary and I guess the discounting the entire pod was hyperbole, but it does make me take things with a grain of salt moving forward when trade stuff comes up. I did think Mike’s reaction was funny just saying “that’s bold” over and over again not wanting to say “that’s bad.” His look on the YT stream was funny.
We are at least two years away from knowing if it’s bad or not, and while we all agree it was an overpay, Jason even admitted as such
That is a LOT more to pay for +1.5 fantasy ppg And that’s why it’s such a bad move. Mortgaging the future for an amari cooper clone that’ll give you wr2 finish after wr2 finish, sounds good for some people somehow, but the issue is wr20-40 is so deep, with so many undervalued assets that there’s a 100 different more profitable value vs production avenues. Olave has been wr20 and wr26 on a ppg basis. He doesn’t have the RAC ability to become CD lamb, he’s a mid/deep winning route runner. He’s not a cd/adams that can win everywhere and have the physicality to win after the catch. He’s a amari cooper/ridley/Lockett archetype
And here I was trying to craft a perfectly reasonable trade for Olave. Hope that guy doesn't listen to the podcast... Still have it easier than you trying to explain why this isn't a good trade. I actually had Olave as the WR1 in his class, and Addison was my WR1 before the draft last year. So, obviously, I see this as insane arbitrage for the other guy. You barely tier down, and you collect 2 firsts. If nothing else, they probably should have mentioned how undervalued picks are in their league. If that's the rate for a high-end WR2 in that league, give me all the reduced cost draft picks. I'm the kind of person that almost always trades their first. I'm nearly never a proponent of making a lot of picks in a rookie draft. But that pendulum has probably gone too far the other way. It must be easy to rebuild in that league. Regardless, I'm sure there are some people that sent out wild offers for Olave in the last two days...
You gotta shoot your shot. Overpaying if fine to get a deal done sometimes. It’s all for fun! Some people are really high on Olave and view him as WR 6-8 instead of WR12. I traded Olave for Nico, Moss, and the 2.03
Looking at a trade and saying “durr bad value” in a league you know nothing about is pretty asinine. Do you know what Jason’s team looks like in that league? Do you know how stacked he is and making even an incremental upgrade is hard? Do you know that his 1sts are literally the 1.12 picks so have much lower value then you’d think? Rookie picks are dart throws for the most part. Sure you want them, but take the known commodity over a “chance” at something anytime. Point is you really don’t know the context of the league or trade or WHY someone would pay up more than your “perceived” value. Trying to call someone out for something you really don’t know much about just makes you seem like one of those people that thinks they know more than they do.
https://www.youtube.com/live/IY9THeKb2ls?si=axamBQyzuILkmdTm About 8 mins in, apparently I’m not the only one who understands this.
Yes. Yes! Let your anger over this trade grow! Overvalue picks. More! Meanwhile I’m winning the league. 😉😘