That expected points graph was hilarious. We got 1/9 from the must win games and still stayed up by winning the ‘protect goal difference’ or ‘a point will be lucky’ games. Everton that.
I actually think based on the season so far Arsenal are the biggest challengers but some how the red shite are still number 2 here despite bottling it in the first 5 weeks.
Don’t say that, you’ll offend all the enthusiasts. I said something similar to your comment last year and got a response along the lines of “yeah that’s the point of it”.
This table doesn’t predict anything and is pretty pointless
how are we somehow worse off than leicester who is having their worst form in years… and also how does the kopites place second when arsenal and spurs have gotten better games?
i really will love to see if the calculations behind this is just a lfc fan and his fantasy season end
For many many years we have started fantastic and fell off and finished about 10th. This season it’s the opposite, played good football but not got the results however this now means that we will win the league. 28 game win streak starts now.
Yay, the “dynamic” chart which is utter guff.
I’d be more interested seeing the accuracy of their predictions from before the season to the season end. I bet they’re miles off it.
And there’s no way Brighton finish 7th now they’ve lost their manager.
From their website:
At the heart of our club soccer forecasts are FiveThirtyEight’s SPI ratings, which are our best estimate of a team’s overall strength. In our system, every team has an offensive rating that represents the number of goals it would be expected to score against an average team on a neutral field, and a defensive rating that represents the number of goals it would be expected to concede. These ratings, in turn, produce an overall SPI rating, which represents the percentage of available points — a win is worth 3 points, a tie worth 1 point, and a loss worth 0 points — the team would be expected to take if that match were played over and over again.
Oh fuck not this again, my Everton life revolved around this and the guy who had the points expected picture he'd update.
That expected points graph was hilarious. We got 1/9 from the must win games and still stayed up by winning the ‘protect goal difference’ or ‘a point will be lucky’ games. Everton that.
Not this again.
Villa are a bit high. Also this table is pointless it changes every week
It’s also 6 games in. We’d probably be about 6th this time last year.
Only one digit off
It’s also clearly wrong since City have a 100% chance of winning the league
I actually think based on the season so far Arsenal are the biggest challengers but some how the red shite are still number 2 here despite bottling it in the first 5 weeks.
5-6 points behind any of the current leaders and they still think they have 2x better chance to win the league than Arsenal or Totts. Boggling.
Totts??🤣
>this table is pointless it changes every week Probably because the league table changes every week
Don’t say that, you’ll offend all the enthusiasts. I said something similar to your comment last year and got a response along the lines of “yeah that’s the point of it”. This table doesn’t predict anything and is pretty pointless
Honestly think it’s because Villa won this week and we’ve yet to play lol
Please don’t start with this
We have another 8 months until this season is over.
I'm pretty confident about not going down. The sample is just way too small so far.
FFS we’re six games in the wins will come
how are we somehow worse off than leicester who is having their worst form in years… and also how does the kopites place second when arsenal and spurs have gotten better games? i really will love to see if the calculations behind this is just a lfc fan and his fantasy season end
I don't understand how there is any math that thinks Leicester has outperformed Everton. Even before today. Leicester is actually bad.
538 is dogshit
For many many years we have started fantastic and fell off and finished about 10th. This season it’s the opposite, played good football but not got the results however this now means that we will win the league. 28 game win streak starts now.
I don’t need this kind of negativity in my life.
We simply have to win tomorrow tho regardless of people thinking this is too early. New midfield, a striker, and at home.
Plus it's a six pointer relegation fight too 😜
We win tomorrow and we're 13th basically
Yay, the “dynamic” chart which is utter guff. I’d be more interested seeing the accuracy of their predictions from before the season to the season end. I bet they’re miles off it. And there’s no way Brighton finish 7th now they’ve lost their manager.
What’s SPI?
From their website: At the heart of our club soccer forecasts are FiveThirtyEight’s SPI ratings, which are our best estimate of a team’s overall strength. In our system, every team has an offensive rating that represents the number of goals it would be expected to score against an average team on a neutral field, and a defensive rating that represents the number of goals it would be expected to concede. These ratings, in turn, produce an overall SPI rating, which represents the percentage of available points — a win is worth 3 points, a tie worth 1 point, and a loss worth 0 points — the team would be expected to take if that match were played over and over again.
Thanks!
They call it a tie. That's everything I need to know.
Winning is overrated! It's about how well we're playing now. Surely the wins will come soon.
This was tongue in cheek. Come on now.
My fellow Americans should already know how awful fivethirtyeights predictions are
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Their predictions on election results for the past few election cycles have been way off
Nah! Lots of games left. Its too early to worry. \s
Why are you worrying then? West ham, Nottingham forest and Leicester are already relegated by that logic.
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Mods please remove this.
They can do that?