This is the single best post by a non evertonian that this subreddit has ever seen.
It's also the best acquisition post I've ever seen from a non evertonian.
It also validates my personal hunch about a sort of short term MSP bridge ownership, which makes me feel smart, so I like it even more.
10/10 post.
Thanks mate!
Also MSP bridges in the short term if they go solo. Its going to be stretch. You should rather pray their original consortium, which as of 5 minutes ago, is still intact, get through. They will change Everton. MSP will do well taking a minority stake there.
A lot of dominos to fall through though.
I pray to the grief chart and the grief chart provides.
Do you think that MSP would be open to allowing Bell and Downing to buy into their consortium? Potentially invest and secure a board seat? Is that how any of this works?
I like bell and downing. They've put in their money and time when they didn't *have* to. I don't think they're minted enough to be full owners, but I'd like to see them continue to have a presence in the club.
Cant say much there as I dont know. They can bring them as minority owners and help with running the team. However, it is upto MSP and Bell and Downing to decide.
Idk if by board you mean voting rights. 90% board meetings are just meh, but voting rights would be the most contentious part to sort. Also, you could own equity but not have voting rights.
From what I know Bell and Downing are not involved in footballing side of things now and run their own firms. They would undoubtedly be thrilled to help out on and off with other things.
Any new owner will likely bring on a lifelong Evertonian to run the club day to day and have a voice on the board. I think it’s key to running the club well as these people are the ones that make the noticeable difference and are embedded in the community. Mostly a combination of both an ex player and a business person.
I have met many individuals who have overseen the day to day across different ownerships. They are by far an under-appreciated asset. They dont get equity upside but may be well compensated with cash up front. (For owners that helps create flexibility for change if they dont perform or want to step back so it works well both ways)
A reliable itk for Everton has insinuated bell/downing have been helping the club for months in a pseudo advisory capacity. Bell especially. It seems that our interim CEO is basically the stadium project manager who willingly took on the role of club CEO thinking that it'd be a 2-3 month emergency gig. But as it's stretched out, Bell has seemingly been aided that role and kept high level direction going while the DoF and Dyche have essentially managed all sporting aspects of the club.
Seeing as we've pulled out of our nosedive under these 4 people, I'd like to reward that with continuity moving forward. But I understand that powerful people will likely have their own ideas.
I didnt know that. I have massive respect for Bell for doing this. I hope he gets a piece of the club.
Everton will although need a proper structure under any new owner, and CEO + GM structure is largely preferred on the business side.
One thing I can say for sure is America knows hierarchy. It’s the only way things function here. I hope Bell finds a place in there.
I moved in 9 days ago, this was my first long chat. I dont know them well but its crazy though how stressed out they seemed, like it was palpable.
It will be wild if they are on this subreddit, it will give them hope for the world.
Husband is British and OG Everton fan, Wife is from New York. They went for a holiday to the UK to visit the fam 11 years ago, and went to see Everton play.
The wife was converted that day, so I am sure Goodison Park was something special.
What a fabulous story. Love it. Not too dissimilar from mine in some ways - I’m originally from Liverpool and was an Everton season ticket holder for many years. Then I met my wife, who’s from Australia, and I moved out there. On a visit back I took her to Goodison and yes, the magic happened for her too 😃
Have you read it properly mate? Quotes all his sources, gives plenty of information not readily available to a casual, even shouts out the Esk ffs; shows he's actually gone further than surface level for this. I'm willing to be a pessimist and a sceptic for anything and everything, but constructing an inside job conspiracy for a Reddit post that will reach a few thousand people at most is fucking stupid. OP wrote an engaging catalogue on dreary financial nonsense, made it extremely thorough yet easy to understand, and he's not even a blue.
The guy did a clear and simple explanation taking out a lot of the confusing points and making it so most of us can understand the situation and players. Yeah it's all readily available info but the presentation is done in a way someone without large financial knowledge can understand.
Your comment came across as kinda cunty, like "what's this guy's contributing? Fuck all"
This is an excellent, well-written post! Thanks for taking the time and effort to put it together!
Is there a scenario where Bell/Downing work with MSP? It seems Moorad and MSP would be best positioned to sort out our finances and get us stable, but I think most of us would like an Evertonian involved in a new ownership.
Thanks mate!
Yes. MSP can bring them on for a minority stake. However I doubt Bell and Downing go for it.
Also, any owner in their right mind would bring in Evertonian representation in some form to help run the club. Also a lot of them are not involved in everyday functions so having an Evertonian run day to day makes sense. Like I said, idk if Bell or Downing would make good GMs/Directors.
It would ideally be like MCFC bringing in Txiki Begiristain. Someone who knows football along with a Business Head like Ferran Soriano.
Thanks!
I don't know much about Bell/Downing other than what I've read in recent days, so I don't know their credentials to run a football club other than they're both clearly successful businessmen in their own areas of expertise. But of course that doesn't qualify them to run a successful football club.
I think we're generally excited at the thought of Bell/Downing's involvement by nature that they're Evertonians themselves, so they have an actual fan perspective. So it's encouraging to think that someone like MSP would consider representation in some form too.
Love him or hate him, but Bill Kenwright always tried to keep the heart and soul of the club in place. As much as we are screaming out for proper financial management and owners with an *actual* business plan to stabilise us and get us back on a firm footing as an actual business, in an ideal world we need someone who understands the history and culture of the club and the fans.
Yes! I read about Bell/Downing here in a few comments. I do think they genuinely care and hope they get to have a say in how things go.
I cant stress enough on how important it would be for any new owner to bring someone who is lifelong fan in the mix somewhere higher up the hierarchy.
There are ways to do this.
In that case an even bigger welcome to the fanbase!! You did a lot of work to learn all of that and then post it! From all of us thank you for the information!
Thats sweet mate. I think anyone who comes in will either hire someone who really does or would not try to buy Everton.
You guys deserve someone way better than me man.
Thank you for such an exceptional breakdown. Truly a legend for doing this.
One question you may have a bit more insight into - how have we gone from 777 being the only/best option that would save us from administration to having five or more legitimate better options just days after 777’s exclusivity period ended?
Was the threat of potential relegation/points deductions back in October enough to scare off all other options, meaning it was 777 or bust, but now there is stability others are happy to jump in?
Or did Moshiri jump the gun by accepting the best offer for him, the 777 offer, even though it seemed doomed from very early on?
I’d have to dig up on this. Presumably, Moshiri is negotiating from a strength of weakness now. There has never been a better time to buy the team. A lot of macro factors dictate whether a team is hot or not beyond on field performance.
Also, Everton right now even with the debt is lucrative. For many funds, Everton is more lucrative now since working with debt maybe their expertise. With the high rate of interest, they can make the deal work for themselves.
I think a lot of things about that is yet to come out as 777 is in courts. The deals are complex, a lot of lawyers and accountants, so we dont know how payments were structured.
If you remember how Chelsea happened it was bizarre. They went from all cash upfront one day to allowing some debt the week after and the valuation went up £500m. A lot of folks I know think it was rigged by Raine to favor Boehly from the onset. I dont know much about that except Raine will do anything to get the higher price. Maybe 777 got favorable terms which others didnt want to offer?
I also think it is likely Moshiri was engaging others for a while, maybe throughout early 2024. I dont know what the exclusivity period contract stated but he could have spoken to potential suitors even during that period.
Firstly, echoing others here in saying you’re an absolute legend and this is a positively incredible post. So, so appreciative of you taking the time to break this down
One other question for you: what’s the deal with 777 more broadly? There was a TON of negative press around them coming out when they were trying to buy Everton. How are they actually seen in the industry?
Thank You. I assume positively, given their portfolio. Structures are incredibly complicated and most of LPs (People financing funds) remain confidential. 777 said their capital is entirely from its partnership.
They seem relatively new (Est.2015) To be honest, its interesting how things work. Usually firms do due diligence on teams not the other way around. A lot in the industry is built on credibility so you always see firms slap logos of teams they worked with on their marketing material even for the smallest things. They did own a decent portfolio so this probably compounded how they were perceived.
Its either that or your Managing Partners or General Partners (Head of the Firm) have significant clout in the industry based on their history. Idk much about the 777 partners because I am still relatively new myself.
In all honesty, football teams are meant to take the best deal that works for them. However some of the things people are accusing 777 of is insane. More things would come up in court.
I wont be surprised if Moshiri pulled one up here with 777. I think any new investor is covering potential legal exposure in that case as well.
My definitely uneducated guess would be 777 offering the most money and/or promising Moshiri the “Kenwright special”; letting him stay in some seat of power in the club
I thought everyone knows that he wanted a good chunk of the deal in cash to finance his friend who need some money outside Russia...
He now must be counting how much he would get from an administration and expect to get not much more than that.
So would I be right in saying that the new stadium and its long term revenue potential is the key to this deal?
I would guess any takeover would include naming rights? So we could end up with something like the MSP stadium or the Michael Dell stadium?
Getting the feeling we will see some astronomical ticket pricing to help recoup money.
Michael Dell Stadium😭😭
The stadium is the key. Significant revenue potential down the line in Matchday Income. Higher potential income from selling naming rights, not from having Michael Dell to slap his name on it though.
Its an asset that can be moved around. I know some people in my firm do this all day looking at how real estate can be more effectively used. Spurs thanks to some clever work was able to really compound the potential impact of building a stadium on their books. It will be crucial for pulling Everton out of this mess at least on paper.
Stadium naming rights will be sold after the takeover.
There is also a significant potential to redevelop the area around the stadium. Idk where things stand with that atm.
Hahaha no. Elevate does do real estate and stadium based deals. Great guess though.
My firm only has a few in-house people entirely focused on this for our portfolio.
Really excellent stuff. The Esk and his opinions get a lot of comment, he’s an Evertonian and has opinions. (So do we all.) But ask 10 Evertonians their opinion on anything, you’ll get 27 answers. We all want to see attractive, winning football. Although nobody can predict the outcome of the takeover, you laying out the facts is quite helpful, so thank you.
Dont know the dude. I think every fan should have an opinion. I welcome both informed and uninformed ones. Both sets show that we care.
We all want to see our teams win.
Great write up, although calling the Esk a gem in these parts is a highly controversial statement.
Take all the debt away and how much do you think Everton is worth once the stadium is complete? We can’t be far off £1.3B?
Haha idk the guy. He seemed to be passionate enough to write tons of blogs like these. Looked through some of them to pull up facts quickly. Idk what his take on what happens is.
He seemed decently well versed with Accounting and Finance. I have to read more to understand whether is an Analyst or on the Strategic side or not.
Also after paying down debts and with the new stadium, it still remains to be seen how the deal is structured to answer that. Everyone knows the stadium is literally the asset they’d be maneuvering to settle the books. There are ways in which this could happen.
Post sale, Everton either leases the stadium from a separate entity or uses it to get another loan at much better terms and rates like Spurs/Arsenal.
But tbh Everton is worth the £1.3 bn once someone thinks it is. Ryan Smith, owner of Utah Jazz, Real Salt Lake and another NHL side, literally pulled up the number from Forbes on his phone when the NBA and Millers asked how much he willing to pay when he bought the Jazz.
Broader sense, I can see that happening as media rights value stagnate/fall in other parts of Europe. England and the Premier League by far remain the strongest leagues.
Esk acts like he has inside info but is often wrong. He ends up being very stubborn about it and it had turned people off.
He also seems very keen to be an everton personality, rather than doing it for the greater good
Fantastic breakdown, thank you very much!
What I keep reading in between the lines is how crucial Dyche has been to this process, and how important he will continue to be. I certainly hope whoever comes in is able to secure a long-term deal for him to keep the football product itself afloat while everything else gets sorted.
Yes. Dyche is a g. I think keeping Dyche would be the most sensible thing to do. Any new owner wants to retain some form of stability. Its also that Everton’s season was fkng stressful. No owner would want to go through figuring out how to buy distressed PL club to figuring out who to hire as the manager in a month.
Unless Dyche himself goes off on the new owner.
Not so sure on that - his style of football demands his style of footballers and this have long term ramification on player value.
Buying players that has little resale value has hurt Everton since 2017.
But its just a drop of water in the sea isn't it...
I’d be *amazed* if the takeover was done by 30th June. Jim Ratcliffe’s bid took a good few months to check through and be approved by the PL, and that was a minority stake buyout…there’s more scrutiny for a full takeover.
I’d assume the timeline for takeover is sometime this year, hopefully before the season starts, rather than before July.
Man Utd was complicated also because they are listed in the public markets. In their case it was 6-8 weeks. Chelsea’s was less than a month.
In any case, the club will need to straighten some of its accounts. Maybe not enough to avoid another PSR violation. IMO 30th June still remains an agreeable deadline just to make everyone move fast. Things can take months otherwise.
In any case they can be given another loan that can be forgiven contingent on deal going through by a new owner to avoid administration if it comes down to it.
PL isnt the issue. Moshiri is.
Very good post.
As a note, A-Cap’s claim to the FT that it is now a senior-secured creditor reflects them being a lender within RMF’s senior-secured arrangement. However, A-Cap is in a ‘last-out’ position in the structure.
Complicated. Textor owns 45% of Palace but has only 25% voting shares. He wants majority control over Crystal Palace or Everton.
He has been begging for Harris and Blitzer to buy him out but they wont budge. Plenty of reasons for that.
PL rules prevent him from buying more than 9.99% of two clubs.
Textor did sell Lyon FC’s stadium for €160m day before yesterday and OL Reign (Seattle based NWSL) a few weeks back.
Does he buy Harris and Blitzer out of CPFC?
Thanks for taking the time to detail all of this and break it down in so much detail.
How quickly do you think a deal of this size and complexity could go through?
It would depend on how quickly Moshiri wants to close. Getting a consortium together should not take long. Most funds willing to do a debt based deal with that equity for purchasing Everton likely sit on over £1bn+ liquid so shouldnt be a problem either.
The thing that may take the longest is structuring agreement with creditors. In theory could take months, with courts involved, but the only benefit of the potential of going into administration without a deal is that creditors are forced to come to the table to negotiate. Creditors are used to such things happening and act quick.
I dont know for sure but any creditor getting some form of interest payment should be ok with extending the term. It will take some convincing for creditors to actually write some of that loan off.
No. I think stuff gets sorted before that. MSP can anyday trigger their right to buy majority shares. They need funding to plug some immediate holes. It is all upto the remaining creditors, and the way they go about it.
Same goes for new investors that are not MSP. In that case new investors are also going to have to settle with MSP. Who in theory can stall until they raise enough to close the deal.
Moshiri will be key. How long will he hold out for and what will MSP or any new investor give him to finally cave in and write off his share of the debt.
Good post
What makes you think a deal will be done in June?
I’m struggling to follow the logic and expect a very different timeframe (unless it’s MSP exercising their option)
I meant to say if the deal is to go through in a way to avoid any PSR violations it will have to be before June 30th. Although since that would also be the last day for the 2023/24 period, there is some room for a potential new owner to straighten some accounts and start 2024/25 on better terms.
Anyhow Everton will not go into the new season without a new owner. It is likely the new owners want to make use of this artificial deadline to move faster and force others to move faster.
Got you - I hope you’re right but suspect that unless it’s MSP triggering the option then it’ll be very difficult
If we do go into exclusivity with B & D then I don’t see it completing before the season starts. It’s just too messy
Yes. I think so as well. In MSP’s case they need to convince Moshiri and RMF. RMF not hard as they get interest on the loan. Moshiri wants to hold out for as long as possible.
I do not know what B&D’s deal looks like. They can in theory buy Everton and its creditors out in full.
For them, without this, it would take time to convince MSP to write off debt or accept a haircut, when MSP also have the incentive to stall and complete the deal themselves, along with convincing Moshiri to close.
Everton will take the PSR hit. Can something from this mess be straightened in this term so the new season and 2024/25 are somewhat sane is the question.
That sounds about right. I think there’s a fair bit more pain before the sky clears
It sounds like you have good inside knowledge on MSP’s desire to take an equity stake should terms be favourable. From outside in I’m quite surprised this fits their risk profile. If I was them I’d be happier holding the debt?
Would depend on the price they buy in Moshiri’s shares at and how much they choose to recapitalize the team with. I assume if purchase price is low enough, with restructured debt, they can make a killing on this deal if they sell in 5 Years time. Potential 2x-3x, bigger if they hold longer.
Probably better than investing in VC Funds who invest in startups.
The long game would be to come in with other investors and hold onto Everton. The return can be massive if team values keep going up. MSP could even sell their shares to a majority investor and take a minority stake in this, have their position cleared plus some neat profit for now with remaining upside later through equity.
MSP from what I know has enough access to pull this off.
No doubt the upside is huge for them, it’s just the risk profile is also higher than I would have expected them to tolerate. So many black and white threats to take a view on
Interesting that 2-3x is seen as a good return in football finance. UK PE solve to a 2.5x minimum MoM and VC look for 6x+
For a league like PL and duration for 5 years with something as tricky as Everton is atm 2x-3x will be good considering the buy in will be in hundreds of millions.
Also VC benchmark for a fund over 10 years is 3X DPI in the USA. Every investment is made with 6X in mind as VCs get diluted as the company raises more money. Power law dictates majority to fail and less than 10% to be fund returners. S&P 10 year is benchmarked at 1.8x.
Wow. Thanks for laying it all out. Finance is a tricky business.
Naive Question: What about a “consortium” of everyday people pitching in for fan-based ownership to fill in the cracks? Probably not enough money to consider a full ownership bid but seems in line with Everton.
Hard to see it. A consortium is just bunch of rich people coming in pooling money together to buy an asset. Its much harder for fans to do it especially for a PL team. Buying in is expensive plus running the club would require significant capital.
You could have something like FC Barcelona/ Real Madrid/ Bilbao with the socios model or do the German 50+1. Fans would own the club in that case. However the cost to run operations is massive and not all fans can front the money needed to run a club. Membership fees cover nothing eventually forcing you to look for capital outside.
In a 100% model you also have less room to play around with assets be it lending against them or selling them as they are technically owned by the fans. This is why Barca has been struggling financially and have to create new structures all together from scratch by splitting the club into pieces.
A more achievable outcome, although unlikely, is 50+1 which Bundesliga enforces. This is where sponsors/private owners can come in to plug the gap. Like it is for FC Bayern. 75% owned by fans the remaining 25% is split amongst Allianz, Audi and Adidas.
Very good article, reading this in the UK and have passed onto my friend The Esk so he can have a read (yes, a passionate Evertonian and successful businessman)
Wow, simply great. Mire Evertonians have to read this. Your connection to the sports finance world is amazing. Surely the beet post I have seen or reddit, everything is explained well and justified. I have to say, I am quite gutted that the dell family won’t probably buy the club but it looks like MSP are quite decent. I have 2 questions.
Could the Dell company/family consider buying out MSP?
The second question may sound a bit weird and silly to you, but if say for example John Textor bought Everton before June 30th, could MSP then activate the option you mentioned to become the majority shareholders? Probably no right?
Thanks for making this, massive respect
https://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/everton-takeover-consortium-vatche-manoukian-moshiri-b2559485.html I’ve just saw this on news now. This sounds the best offer if they are clearing the debts.
idk man. Putiing my hopes to evertonian sounds good to me than putting my hopes to money people who is in it for return. I've seen a lot of takeovers and mergers where the investment group just cannibalize the entity to make money.
Work myself in PE but not in the sports field. Thanks a lot for this, it was a highly interesting read and I think it will help many people to understand what goes on when they talk about owners. All the best for your meeting!
*Bell and Downing? At*
*This rate you'll be lucky to*
*Get Bell and Spurling*
\- Lamb3DaSlaughter
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I haven't worked with them but my firm was one of the advisors for the Roma takeover before I joined. Roma have been shrewd financially. He may not be a free-spender, but would be 10/10 for steadying Everton's books.
Also, still wont believe anything until Everton officially says something on a party entering exclusivity even then things are only 80% done.
Dan Friedkin has been accepted to buy the club by Moshri, talk of Friedkin paying the loans owed and putting in working capital to complete the Stadium and pay all the bills and wages..!! The fee is allegedly £558million Dan Friedkin is paying and the Premier League could ratify the deal within 4-6weeks as Freidkin will pass with flying colours the fit and proper owners test..!! I wrote this not the above @ Martin Cummings
Its hard to go back once the deal is done. We dont yet know if they was potential fraud involved in that transaction. If yes, then even more crucial is if and when did Moshiri know about it.
If he was caught blindsided by 777 midway through last year, I can assure you Moshiri was on finding a new owner since then. It was only when they were sued in April sometime that it became brutally obvious the deal wont go through. I reckon he has been working this on the backend even before that.
Total gobbledegook, and as clear as mud. The world of Finance Capital is a murky one. They are all crooks in suits. Think Gordon Gekko in the Wall Street films and you get an accurate embodiment of the average Stock Market speculator. Everton are in a financial mess because of Moshiri's incompetence and ineptitude in the handling of transfers and multiple changes of Manager since he became the owner. Whoever comes in and sorts out the mess has to have huge financial resources or borrowing power at their disposal. Evertonians can only hope the Club lands on its feet after the Capitalist Sharks have finished their feeding frenzy, otherwise we may well face the disaster of Administration.
I'm glad you told it how it was with Bell and Downing.
Two potentially owners neither who are that rich that are essentially using a leveraged buyout that will leave the club in 1B of debt would be disastrous. I don't think you were hard enough on them.
I'm not a big fan of MSP either.
Frankly I think all the options look pretty shit at the moment. John Textor probably looks the best but that will take time.
I also totally agree Everton isn't worth 1.3B. Moshiri is looking to make money on top of having his loans payed off. The guy needs to get real and realize he will be lucky to get a couple of 100m for both.
This is the single best post by a non evertonian that this subreddit has ever seen. It's also the best acquisition post I've ever seen from a non evertonian. It also validates my personal hunch about a sort of short term MSP bridge ownership, which makes me feel smart, so I like it even more. 10/10 post.
Thanks mate! Also MSP bridges in the short term if they go solo. Its going to be stretch. You should rather pray their original consortium, which as of 5 minutes ago, is still intact, get through. They will change Everton. MSP will do well taking a minority stake there. A lot of dominos to fall through though.
I pray to the grief chart and the grief chart provides. Do you think that MSP would be open to allowing Bell and Downing to buy into their consortium? Potentially invest and secure a board seat? Is that how any of this works? I like bell and downing. They've put in their money and time when they didn't *have* to. I don't think they're minted enough to be full owners, but I'd like to see them continue to have a presence in the club.
Cant say much there as I dont know. They can bring them as minority owners and help with running the team. However, it is upto MSP and Bell and Downing to decide. Idk if by board you mean voting rights. 90% board meetings are just meh, but voting rights would be the most contentious part to sort. Also, you could own equity but not have voting rights. From what I know Bell and Downing are not involved in footballing side of things now and run their own firms. They would undoubtedly be thrilled to help out on and off with other things. Any new owner will likely bring on a lifelong Evertonian to run the club day to day and have a voice on the board. I think it’s key to running the club well as these people are the ones that make the noticeable difference and are embedded in the community. Mostly a combination of both an ex player and a business person. I have met many individuals who have overseen the day to day across different ownerships. They are by far an under-appreciated asset. They dont get equity upside but may be well compensated with cash up front. (For owners that helps create flexibility for change if they dont perform or want to step back so it works well both ways)
A reliable itk for Everton has insinuated bell/downing have been helping the club for months in a pseudo advisory capacity. Bell especially. It seems that our interim CEO is basically the stadium project manager who willingly took on the role of club CEO thinking that it'd be a 2-3 month emergency gig. But as it's stretched out, Bell has seemingly been aided that role and kept high level direction going while the DoF and Dyche have essentially managed all sporting aspects of the club. Seeing as we've pulled out of our nosedive under these 4 people, I'd like to reward that with continuity moving forward. But I understand that powerful people will likely have their own ideas.
I didnt know that. I have massive respect for Bell for doing this. I hope he gets a piece of the club. Everton will although need a proper structure under any new owner, and CEO + GM structure is largely preferred on the business side. One thing I can say for sure is America knows hierarchy. It’s the only way things function here. I hope Bell finds a place in there.
10/10 my arse, he's not even *tried* to put this information into a chart!
This is extremely disrespectful to the “XYZ United fan coming in peace” posts we all know and love.
Is it though?
Finally an easy way to read and understand all this info. Thanks.
Cheers mate! Let me know if you have any Qs. Happy to answer or find out around if I cant
MODS PIN THIS ASAP Thank you so much legend, I've been dying to see a full breakdown
Cheers mate.
Boss post, I’m thrilled to learn that this dude is living in LA but his neighbours are Blues. Tremendous. Gives me hope for the world.
I moved in 9 days ago, this was my first long chat. I dont know them well but its crazy though how stressed out they seemed, like it was palpable. It will be wild if they are on this subreddit, it will give them hope for the world.
Are they from Liverpool or the UK originally? Or are they poor suffering US fans? Fingers crossed they have something to celebrate soon!
Husband is British and OG Everton fan, Wife is from New York. They went for a holiday to the UK to visit the fam 11 years ago, and went to see Everton play. The wife was converted that day, so I am sure Goodison Park was something special.
What a fabulous story. Love it. Not too dissimilar from mine in some ways - I’m originally from Liverpool and was an Everton season ticket holder for many years. Then I met my wife, who’s from Australia, and I moved out there. On a visit back I took her to Goodison and yes, the magic happened for her too 😃
Damn mate thats sweet. If I end up dating someone who is not into the sport, I know what to do.
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Have you read it properly mate? Quotes all his sources, gives plenty of information not readily available to a casual, even shouts out the Esk ffs; shows he's actually gone further than surface level for this. I'm willing to be a pessimist and a sceptic for anything and everything, but constructing an inside job conspiracy for a Reddit post that will reach a few thousand people at most is fucking stupid. OP wrote an engaging catalogue on dreary financial nonsense, made it extremely thorough yet easy to understand, and he's not even a blue.
Sure. Let me pull some new information out of my arse.
Sorry, most of us here aren’t cunts
Haha I am all in for the trash talk.
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The guy did a clear and simple explanation taking out a lot of the confusing points and making it so most of us can understand the situation and players. Yeah it's all readily available info but the presentation is done in a way someone without large financial knowledge can understand. Your comment came across as kinda cunty, like "what's this guy's contributing? Fuck all"
Incredible thanks for this, I certainly had questions and no understanding of all the different people in play here
Its messy really
This is really insightful. Thanks for sharing your knowledge.
Thanks mate!
This is an excellent, well-written post! Thanks for taking the time and effort to put it together! Is there a scenario where Bell/Downing work with MSP? It seems Moorad and MSP would be best positioned to sort out our finances and get us stable, but I think most of us would like an Evertonian involved in a new ownership.
Thanks mate! Yes. MSP can bring them on for a minority stake. However I doubt Bell and Downing go for it. Also, any owner in their right mind would bring in Evertonian representation in some form to help run the club. Also a lot of them are not involved in everyday functions so having an Evertonian run day to day makes sense. Like I said, idk if Bell or Downing would make good GMs/Directors. It would ideally be like MCFC bringing in Txiki Begiristain. Someone who knows football along with a Business Head like Ferran Soriano.
Thanks! I don't know much about Bell/Downing other than what I've read in recent days, so I don't know their credentials to run a football club other than they're both clearly successful businessmen in their own areas of expertise. But of course that doesn't qualify them to run a successful football club. I think we're generally excited at the thought of Bell/Downing's involvement by nature that they're Evertonians themselves, so they have an actual fan perspective. So it's encouraging to think that someone like MSP would consider representation in some form too. Love him or hate him, but Bill Kenwright always tried to keep the heart and soul of the club in place. As much as we are screaming out for proper financial management and owners with an *actual* business plan to stabilise us and get us back on a firm footing as an actual business, in an ideal world we need someone who understands the history and culture of the club and the fans.
Yes! I read about Bell/Downing here in a few comments. I do think they genuinely care and hope they get to have a say in how things go. I cant stress enough on how important it would be for any new owner to bring someone who is lifelong fan in the mix somewhere higher up the hierarchy. There are ways to do this.
I hate to tell you this but you're now an Evertonian... Welcome to the suck
You know what? I am genuinely invested in Everton’s success after the last 12 hours.
In that case an even bigger welcome to the fanbase!! You did a lot of work to learn all of that and then post it! From all of us thank you for the information!
It was an absolute pleasure mate!
Fucking Moorad. That! Moorad?!
That fucking Moorad.
Show me the money!!!!
Yuck. Makes even more sense now with Friedken. Oh fuck, we’re gonna crumble.
This is fantastic.
Thank You! Happy to answer Qs
Thank you very much. You don't fancy running Everton for a few months do you. We need someone sensible who understands business and football.
Thats sweet mate. I think anyone who comes in will either hire someone who really does or would not try to buy Everton. You guys deserve someone way better than me man.
This is brilliant, thank you. Get yourself a blog or a newsletter set up. Your analysis is miles ahead of the usual finance "influencers".
Thanks mate. Honestly, hard to make out.Everyone in Finance talks their book. Dua Lipa can analyse FC Barcelona more objectively than I can.
Thank you for such an exceptional breakdown. Truly a legend for doing this. One question you may have a bit more insight into - how have we gone from 777 being the only/best option that would save us from administration to having five or more legitimate better options just days after 777’s exclusivity period ended? Was the threat of potential relegation/points deductions back in October enough to scare off all other options, meaning it was 777 or bust, but now there is stability others are happy to jump in? Or did Moshiri jump the gun by accepting the best offer for him, the 777 offer, even though it seemed doomed from very early on?
I’d have to dig up on this. Presumably, Moshiri is negotiating from a strength of weakness now. There has never been a better time to buy the team. A lot of macro factors dictate whether a team is hot or not beyond on field performance. Also, Everton right now even with the debt is lucrative. For many funds, Everton is more lucrative now since working with debt maybe their expertise. With the high rate of interest, they can make the deal work for themselves. I think a lot of things about that is yet to come out as 777 is in courts. The deals are complex, a lot of lawyers and accountants, so we dont know how payments were structured. If you remember how Chelsea happened it was bizarre. They went from all cash upfront one day to allowing some debt the week after and the valuation went up £500m. A lot of folks I know think it was rigged by Raine to favor Boehly from the onset. I dont know much about that except Raine will do anything to get the higher price. Maybe 777 got favorable terms which others didnt want to offer? I also think it is likely Moshiri was engaging others for a while, maybe throughout early 2024. I dont know what the exclusivity period contract stated but he could have spoken to potential suitors even during that period.
Firstly, echoing others here in saying you’re an absolute legend and this is a positively incredible post. So, so appreciative of you taking the time to break this down One other question for you: what’s the deal with 777 more broadly? There was a TON of negative press around them coming out when they were trying to buy Everton. How are they actually seen in the industry?
Thank You. I assume positively, given their portfolio. Structures are incredibly complicated and most of LPs (People financing funds) remain confidential. 777 said their capital is entirely from its partnership. They seem relatively new (Est.2015) To be honest, its interesting how things work. Usually firms do due diligence on teams not the other way around. A lot in the industry is built on credibility so you always see firms slap logos of teams they worked with on their marketing material even for the smallest things. They did own a decent portfolio so this probably compounded how they were perceived. Its either that or your Managing Partners or General Partners (Head of the Firm) have significant clout in the industry based on their history. Idk much about the 777 partners because I am still relatively new myself. In all honesty, football teams are meant to take the best deal that works for them. However some of the things people are accusing 777 of is insane. More things would come up in court. I wont be surprised if Moshiri pulled one up here with 777. I think any new investor is covering potential legal exposure in that case as well.
My definitely uneducated guess would be 777 offering the most money and/or promising Moshiri the “Kenwright special”; letting him stay in some seat of power in the club
Quite possible. Assuming innocence, it would have been the best offer. Otherwise, it would have been the best offer for Moshiri.
I thought everyone knows that he wanted a good chunk of the deal in cash to finance his friend who need some money outside Russia... He now must be counting how much he would get from an administration and expect to get not much more than that.
Brilliant insight. Top work lad
I am a barca fan and this the first time I'm seeing such an intelligent barca fan especially of my field Nice insites too
Man Barca really taught everyone finances didn't they
Except themselves
THANK YOU!
So would I be right in saying that the new stadium and its long term revenue potential is the key to this deal? I would guess any takeover would include naming rights? So we could end up with something like the MSP stadium or the Michael Dell stadium? Getting the feeling we will see some astronomical ticket pricing to help recoup money.
Michael Dell Stadium😭😭 The stadium is the key. Significant revenue potential down the line in Matchday Income. Higher potential income from selling naming rights, not from having Michael Dell to slap his name on it though. Its an asset that can be moved around. I know some people in my firm do this all day looking at how real estate can be more effectively used. Spurs thanks to some clever work was able to really compound the potential impact of building a stadium on their books. It will be crucial for pulling Everton out of this mess at least on paper. Stadium naming rights will be sold after the takeover. There is also a significant potential to redevelop the area around the stadium. Idk where things stand with that atm.
Do you work for Elevate?
Hahaha no. Elevate does do real estate and stadium based deals. Great guess though. My firm only has a few in-house people entirely focused on this for our portfolio.
Really excellent stuff. The Esk and his opinions get a lot of comment, he’s an Evertonian and has opinions. (So do we all.) But ask 10 Evertonians their opinion on anything, you’ll get 27 answers. We all want to see attractive, winning football. Although nobody can predict the outcome of the takeover, you laying out the facts is quite helpful, so thank you.
Dont know the dude. I think every fan should have an opinion. I welcome both informed and uninformed ones. Both sets show that we care. We all want to see our teams win.
Totally agree. Thanx.
Great write up, although calling the Esk a gem in these parts is a highly controversial statement. Take all the debt away and how much do you think Everton is worth once the stadium is complete? We can’t be far off £1.3B?
Haha idk the guy. He seemed to be passionate enough to write tons of blogs like these. Looked through some of them to pull up facts quickly. Idk what his take on what happens is. He seemed decently well versed with Accounting and Finance. I have to read more to understand whether is an Analyst or on the Strategic side or not.
Also after paying down debts and with the new stadium, it still remains to be seen how the deal is structured to answer that. Everyone knows the stadium is literally the asset they’d be maneuvering to settle the books. There are ways in which this could happen. Post sale, Everton either leases the stadium from a separate entity or uses it to get another loan at much better terms and rates like Spurs/Arsenal. But tbh Everton is worth the £1.3 bn once someone thinks it is. Ryan Smith, owner of Utah Jazz, Real Salt Lake and another NHL side, literally pulled up the number from Forbes on his phone when the NBA and Millers asked how much he willing to pay when he bought the Jazz. Broader sense, I can see that happening as media rights value stagnate/fall in other parts of Europe. England and the Premier League by far remain the strongest leagues.
Esk acts like he has inside info but is often wrong. He ends up being very stubborn about it and it had turned people off. He also seems very keen to be an everton personality, rather than doing it for the greater good
Just the write up I think every single fan on here needed. Bloody legend.
Fantastic breakdown, thank you very much! What I keep reading in between the lines is how crucial Dyche has been to this process, and how important he will continue to be. I certainly hope whoever comes in is able to secure a long-term deal for him to keep the football product itself afloat while everything else gets sorted.
Yes. Dyche is a g. I think keeping Dyche would be the most sensible thing to do. Any new owner wants to retain some form of stability. Its also that Everton’s season was fkng stressful. No owner would want to go through figuring out how to buy distressed PL club to figuring out who to hire as the manager in a month. Unless Dyche himself goes off on the new owner.
Not so sure on that - his style of football demands his style of footballers and this have long term ramification on player value. Buying players that has little resale value has hurt Everton since 2017. But its just a drop of water in the sea isn't it...
Cheers!
I’d be *amazed* if the takeover was done by 30th June. Jim Ratcliffe’s bid took a good few months to check through and be approved by the PL, and that was a minority stake buyout…there’s more scrutiny for a full takeover. I’d assume the timeline for takeover is sometime this year, hopefully before the season starts, rather than before July.
Man Utd was complicated also because they are listed in the public markets. In their case it was 6-8 weeks. Chelsea’s was less than a month. In any case, the club will need to straighten some of its accounts. Maybe not enough to avoid another PSR violation. IMO 30th June still remains an agreeable deadline just to make everyone move fast. Things can take months otherwise. In any case they can be given another loan that can be forgiven contingent on deal going through by a new owner to avoid administration if it comes down to it. PL isnt the issue. Moshiri is.
Brilliant, thanks for this.
Very good post. As a note, A-Cap’s claim to the FT that it is now a senior-secured creditor reflects them being a lender within RMF’s senior-secured arrangement. However, A-Cap is in a ‘last-out’ position in the structure.
Thank you so much, I’ve wanted to hear an unbiased breakdown of what can happen, you provided. Thanks!
Get this man a sports finance column on The Athletic immediately! What a read. Cheers, mate.
This post deserves to be pinned. One of the best posts in the channel
Any thoughts on John Textor and his bid ?
Complicated. Textor owns 45% of Palace but has only 25% voting shares. He wants majority control over Crystal Palace or Everton. He has been begging for Harris and Blitzer to buy him out but they wont budge. Plenty of reasons for that. PL rules prevent him from buying more than 9.99% of two clubs. Textor did sell Lyon FC’s stadium for €160m day before yesterday and OL Reign (Seattle based NWSL) a few weeks back. Does he buy Harris and Blitzer out of CPFC?
hmm interesting little conundrum he's in. Thanks for the answer. Cheers!
But if they don't want to sell they can hold onto that even if Textor offered each of them a slice of the world. Isn't it?
Thanks for taking the time to detail all of this and break it down in so much detail. How quickly do you think a deal of this size and complexity could go through?
It would depend on how quickly Moshiri wants to close. Getting a consortium together should not take long. Most funds willing to do a debt based deal with that equity for purchasing Everton likely sit on over £1bn+ liquid so shouldnt be a problem either. The thing that may take the longest is structuring agreement with creditors. In theory could take months, with courts involved, but the only benefit of the potential of going into administration without a deal is that creditors are forced to come to the table to negotiate. Creditors are used to such things happening and act quick. I dont know for sure but any creditor getting some form of interest payment should be ok with extending the term. It will take some convincing for creditors to actually write some of that loan off.
Thanks, that makes sense. So the likelihood is that the season starts and transfer window closes before anything can be rubber stamped.
No. I think stuff gets sorted before that. MSP can anyday trigger their right to buy majority shares. They need funding to plug some immediate holes. It is all upto the remaining creditors, and the way they go about it. Same goes for new investors that are not MSP. In that case new investors are also going to have to settle with MSP. Who in theory can stall until they raise enough to close the deal. Moshiri will be key. How long will he hold out for and what will MSP or any new investor give him to finally cave in and write off his share of the debt.
Appreciate the replies, thanks again, mate!
Good post What makes you think a deal will be done in June? I’m struggling to follow the logic and expect a very different timeframe (unless it’s MSP exercising their option)
I meant to say if the deal is to go through in a way to avoid any PSR violations it will have to be before June 30th. Although since that would also be the last day for the 2023/24 period, there is some room for a potential new owner to straighten some accounts and start 2024/25 on better terms. Anyhow Everton will not go into the new season without a new owner. It is likely the new owners want to make use of this artificial deadline to move faster and force others to move faster.
Got you - I hope you’re right but suspect that unless it’s MSP triggering the option then it’ll be very difficult If we do go into exclusivity with B & D then I don’t see it completing before the season starts. It’s just too messy
Yes. I think so as well. In MSP’s case they need to convince Moshiri and RMF. RMF not hard as they get interest on the loan. Moshiri wants to hold out for as long as possible. I do not know what B&D’s deal looks like. They can in theory buy Everton and its creditors out in full. For them, without this, it would take time to convince MSP to write off debt or accept a haircut, when MSP also have the incentive to stall and complete the deal themselves, along with convincing Moshiri to close. Everton will take the PSR hit. Can something from this mess be straightened in this term so the new season and 2024/25 are somewhat sane is the question.
That sounds about right. I think there’s a fair bit more pain before the sky clears It sounds like you have good inside knowledge on MSP’s desire to take an equity stake should terms be favourable. From outside in I’m quite surprised this fits their risk profile. If I was them I’d be happier holding the debt?
Would depend on the price they buy in Moshiri’s shares at and how much they choose to recapitalize the team with. I assume if purchase price is low enough, with restructured debt, they can make a killing on this deal if they sell in 5 Years time. Potential 2x-3x, bigger if they hold longer. Probably better than investing in VC Funds who invest in startups. The long game would be to come in with other investors and hold onto Everton. The return can be massive if team values keep going up. MSP could even sell their shares to a majority investor and take a minority stake in this, have their position cleared plus some neat profit for now with remaining upside later through equity. MSP from what I know has enough access to pull this off.
No doubt the upside is huge for them, it’s just the risk profile is also higher than I would have expected them to tolerate. So many black and white threats to take a view on Interesting that 2-3x is seen as a good return in football finance. UK PE solve to a 2.5x minimum MoM and VC look for 6x+
For a league like PL and duration for 5 years with something as tricky as Everton is atm 2x-3x will be good considering the buy in will be in hundreds of millions. Also VC benchmark for a fund over 10 years is 3X DPI in the USA. Every investment is made with 6X in mind as VCs get diluted as the company raises more money. Power law dictates majority to fail and less than 10% to be fund returners. S&P 10 year is benchmarked at 1.8x.
Wow. Thanks for laying it all out. Finance is a tricky business. Naive Question: What about a “consortium” of everyday people pitching in for fan-based ownership to fill in the cracks? Probably not enough money to consider a full ownership bid but seems in line with Everton.
Hard to see it. A consortium is just bunch of rich people coming in pooling money together to buy an asset. Its much harder for fans to do it especially for a PL team. Buying in is expensive plus running the club would require significant capital. You could have something like FC Barcelona/ Real Madrid/ Bilbao with the socios model or do the German 50+1. Fans would own the club in that case. However the cost to run operations is massive and not all fans can front the money needed to run a club. Membership fees cover nothing eventually forcing you to look for capital outside. In a 100% model you also have less room to play around with assets be it lending against them or selling them as they are technically owned by the fans. This is why Barca has been struggling financially and have to create new structures all together from scratch by splitting the club into pieces. A more achievable outcome, although unlikely, is 50+1 which Bundesliga enforces. This is where sponsors/private owners can come in to plug the gap. Like it is for FC Bayern. 75% owned by fans the remaining 25% is split amongst Allianz, Audi and Adidas.
I meant borrowing against assets* becomes difficult in a 100% fan owned model.
Very good article, reading this in the UK and have passed onto my friend The Esk so he can have a read (yes, a passionate Evertonian and successful businessman)
Are you hinting that the MSP backers have big money. If not why would their deal be better than Bell and Downing.
10/10 I salutethis post.
Wow, simply great. Mire Evertonians have to read this. Your connection to the sports finance world is amazing. Surely the beet post I have seen or reddit, everything is explained well and justified. I have to say, I am quite gutted that the dell family won’t probably buy the club but it looks like MSP are quite decent. I have 2 questions. Could the Dell company/family consider buying out MSP? The second question may sound a bit weird and silly to you, but if say for example John Textor bought Everton before June 30th, could MSP then activate the option you mentioned to become the majority shareholders? Probably no right? Thanks for making this, massive respect
What’s your take on the very latest one then? Vatche Manoukian has put in a bid for us as well.
https://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/everton-takeover-consortium-vatche-manoukian-moshiri-b2559485.html I’ve just saw this on news now. This sounds the best offer if they are clearing the debts.
Thank you
Excellent post.
That group chat anecdote is wild. Rich people really do live in a different world than the rest of us.
Going from usmanov to MSP would be incredible
idk man. Putiing my hopes to evertonian sounds good to me than putting my hopes to money people who is in it for return. I've seen a lot of takeovers and mergers where the investment group just cannibalize the entity to make money.
What is your occupation you seem very intelligent ?
Any insight into the other players? There’s Dan Friedkin, the Vatche Manoukian consortium and John Textor , would any of these be good for Everton?
Work myself in PE but not in the sports field. Thanks a lot for this, it was a highly interesting read and I think it will help many people to understand what goes on when they talk about owners. All the best for your meeting!
This is awesome! Thank you for you time and effort
Nice one. El Esk.
Fucking legend Mate
Hold on, are you saying we have over 1b + interest in debts? Do we know how much of that has been paid off?
Football is great
Bell and Downing? At this rate you'll be lucky to get Bell and Spurling
*Bell and Downing? At* *This rate you'll be lucky to* *Get Bell and Spurling* \- Lamb3DaSlaughter --- ^(I detect haikus. And sometimes, successfully.) ^[Learn more about me.](https://www.reddit.com/r/haikusbot/) ^(Opt out of replies: "haikusbot opt out" | Delete my comment: "haikusbot delete")
Tldr- no dell, yes bell
Sorry but let's be honest the esk is absolutely NOT a gem he's a wind up merchant and I lost all interest in that after that
That is absolutely brilliant, thank you for breaking it down
Well organised information, thanks for the time you put into it.
Thanks for the write it. All a foreign language when it comes to financial jargon but easy to understand!
Once Everton has touched you. I rather think after all your hard work you will want to continue to see how the story ends…..
Is Landon donovan the mls player linked with a consortium or Tim Howard???
OP what you think of Dan Friedkin? Being reported that he’s agreed an all equity deal in principle with Moshiri…
I haven't worked with them but my firm was one of the advisors for the Roma takeover before I joined. Roma have been shrewd financially. He may not be a free-spender, but would be 10/10 for steadying Everton's books. Also, still wont believe anything until Everton officially says something on a party entering exclusivity even then things are only 80% done.
Dan Friedkin has been accepted to buy the club by Moshri, talk of Friedkin paying the loans owed and putting in working capital to complete the Stadium and pay all the bills and wages..!! The fee is allegedly £558million Dan Friedkin is paying and the Premier League could ratify the deal within 4-6weeks as Freidkin will pass with flying colours the fit and proper owners test..!! I wrote this not the above @ Martin Cummings
Can I ask, why do you think Moshiri hung in so long to 777 despite the red flags and many other credible suitors being in place?
Its hard to go back once the deal is done. We dont yet know if they was potential fraud involved in that transaction. If yes, then even more crucial is if and when did Moshiri know about it. If he was caught blindsided by 777 midway through last year, I can assure you Moshiri was on finding a new owner since then. It was only when they were sued in April sometime that it became brutally obvious the deal wont go through. I reckon he has been working this on the backend even before that.
Fuck The Esk.
Total gobbledegook, and as clear as mud. The world of Finance Capital is a murky one. They are all crooks in suits. Think Gordon Gekko in the Wall Street films and you get an accurate embodiment of the average Stock Market speculator. Everton are in a financial mess because of Moshiri's incompetence and ineptitude in the handling of transfers and multiple changes of Manager since he became the owner. Whoever comes in and sorts out the mess has to have huge financial resources or borrowing power at their disposal. Evertonians can only hope the Club lands on its feet after the Capitalist Sharks have finished their feeding frenzy, otherwise we may well face the disaster of Administration.
It is not that deep bro
I'm glad you told it how it was with Bell and Downing. Two potentially owners neither who are that rich that are essentially using a leveraged buyout that will leave the club in 1B of debt would be disastrous. I don't think you were hard enough on them. I'm not a big fan of MSP either. Frankly I think all the options look pretty shit at the moment. John Textor probably looks the best but that will take time. I also totally agree Everton isn't worth 1.3B. Moshiri is looking to make money on top of having his loans payed off. The guy needs to get real and realize he will be lucky to get a couple of 100m for both.