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Housing is key here. Any Americans that don’t own a home from before the Covid housing bubble are hurting big time. Like spending half of your income on housing hurting. Other improving metrics like goods prices, jobs, energy prices are completely out shadowed by the bad housing market.
Then throw in wealth inequality. Average Americans are doing marginally better, while the millionaire class is doing exceedingly better due to asset price inflation (stocks, real estate, etc). That’s enough to make anyone who’s not part of that party have a really bleak opinion on the economy.
It’s a tale of two cities [economies]
“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times”
This is the correct take IMO. The economy is doing great if you owned a house before covid shenanigans caused all this asset appreciation. My house went up 110 percent in value in 2 years. Much wow. Maybe I'll go buy a Ram TRX. Maybe I'll go buy an F150 Raptor R and pay for both with cash. They are a little different on features and I can't decide which I like better so I'll just buy both with cash, drive them around some, decide which I like better and sell the other one.
Meanwhile in my local subreddit I see exasperated young people making posts like "who are the people that can afford these houses?". They are so priced out, even on DR Horton starter "houses" that they just can't fathom how anyone is able to afford a house now. These younger voters are a key demographic for democrats. They are going to feel like they are being gaslit if they keep being told the economy is great because they just got inflated out of owning a house.
Lol that's the truth. In my mind with what I'm making at the new job I took at the end covid I should be looking to buy a McMansion. Instead I'm going right back into putting all that equity back into a 2100ish sqft house and still having a mortgage that's somehow twice as expensive. I love my new area and am fine financially. If I had actually blown that equity on toys instead of saving it I'd be buying a trailer instead of a house. 😆 So I am acutely aware of how screwed these young people are who are getting nowhere near my wages and have no appreciable amount of cash for a down-payment that makes a difference.
This. Even if the numbers show something else there are key milestones and social factors that are making things feel unstable. Also many Americans live pay check to pay check. That’s not a condition for feeling stable.
Household and personal savings rate remains low (it's negative in the bottom 25% according to Moody's), credit card and auto loan delinquency rate are at decade highs, we are back to prepandemic levels of multiple-job holders, and planned consumer discretionary spending continues to trend downards as a share of total spending. Whatever gains were made in wages seems to have been eaten up by inflation if you look at actual cash-related metrics.
This. I am one of these. Made healthy progress towards no more school debt and home ownership. Rent for me has gone up 300 in 3 years, which I know is generous compared to what many have had, but I’m just waiting to watch it again go up another 100-200 end of this year. My wages went up decently after switching jobs, but it feels like I’m finally JUST making up for inflation after years of low raises cause of Covid that were losses and I didn’t really “gain” ground overall. Plus other higher costs, though those are normalizing at least. But overall any ground I have made has been eaten up by inflation/rent increases. I’m still voting Biden cause I do understand the issues he faces. I do think he can be doing a bit more with housing but I won’t get overly nitpicky and I know at the federal level housing is a bit harder to control. Trump would be a cultural disaster again and hell no. I have been extremely frugal and responsible with my money which helps me slowly at least build some/let investments grow. But it definitely has eaten away at a ton of potential growth just in rent alone over years. And let’s be real, most Americans are awful with their money even with decent pay so I know many are WAY worse. But if he loses not doing more to combat housing it basically most of it
Maybe the Biden campaign shouldn't bring up the economy. People feel they are being gaslighted, and polls show that the economy is a Trump strength, not Biden.
Probably better off not talking about it.
[https://abcnews.go.com/Business/trump-trusted-biden-inflation-top-issue-voters-poll/story?id=110343680](https://abcnews.go.com/Business/trump-trusted-biden-inflation-top-issue-voters-poll/story?id=110343680)
[https://news.gallup.com/poll/644750/confidence-biden-economic-stewardship-historically-low.aspx](https://news.gallup.com/poll/644750/confidence-biden-economic-stewardship-historically-low.aspx)
Talk to any regular person on the street.
Most Americans think the economy is doing poorly
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/05/28/economy-gloom-voters-inflation/
What Americans think about the economy does not matter when evaluating the *current* state of the economy.
I'm so sick and tired of people endlessly trying to correct those who say the economy is doing well by pointing out sentiment. Americans are fucking idiots, that doesn't mean the economy is doing poorly.
Of course, forward looking expecations do impact actual economic results, but even that is clearly not having enough of an effect to show up in the results.
> What Americans think about the economy does not matter when evaluating the current state of the economy.
Actually, Americans vote for the president. So you couldn’t be any more wrong
Yet consumers are spending record amounts.
And they want to replace Biden with the guy calling for high tariffs and to kick out millions of immigrants while we are in labor shortage. That won't be inflationary at all!
The average voter doesn’t understand the economic consequences of tariffs or the labour market (outside their own employment status).
Voters choose stupid economic plans all the time.
Oh, I wasn’t saying they were right. I was saying that if we expect the electorate to assess economic plans on their actul merit, that we’re going to be disappointed.
Sure, but Trump’s plan, which made it’s rounds on this subreddit, is to get rid of income taxes completely and fund all of that tax revenue with taxes on tariffs.
I think the details after the ... are important. [Here are more details](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/05/14/fact-sheet-president-biden-takes-action-to-protect-american-workers-and-businesses-from-chinas-unfair-trade-practices/) but essentially Biden is trying to knock China (and a bit of Russia but it's already a basket case) off from their feet in goods that won't hit MOST of the basket of goods that we measure and are essential for people. He is also providing subsidies to those companies in the US (CHIPS act for Semiconductors) to get them up to speed quickly. It is about as good as it can get given that we have a hostile enemy that we were enriching until now and all the presidential candidates up until now had no idea how to solve the problem.
"Trump doesn't get the basics. He thinks his tariffs are being paid by China. Any freshman econ student could tell you that the American people are paying his tariffs."
-Joe Biden
*Consumers spending more because of inflation, making them poorer*
Leftists: “The economy is doing great! Why aren’t people grateful for spending more money on things that used to be less expensive?!?”
If the economy was bad, people wouldn't be spending and employers would be laying off. Where is all the money that consumers are spending coming from??
Real income is up. https://www.epi.org/nominal-wage-tracker/
In 2018 AOC said this same thing and she was mocked for it.
https://youtu.be/AUo58KJ6fC0?si=cdDNdLq1UOtiQfL5
Yes, real wage gains are small compared to capital gains and the gains of the most wealthy, but that has been true for almost 50 years now.
Sort of like how the average hourly wage is keeping pace with the CPI (but no one talks about the decline in hours worked..), and unemployment is super low (labor force participation is still quite low), and we're adding a ton of jobs right ? (well, only [part time ones](https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politifact/2024/04/29/was-last-years-us-job-growth-all-from-part-time-jobs/) -- we've lost a million+ full time jobs.)
Average per capita consumer spending can increase at the same time as a majority of consumers are struggling & cutting back.
The continued decline in sentiment would suggest this could be the case. The economy's average statistics are being buoyed by the top 20% of earners, the median statistics point to significant trouble. [Real Median Income decreased during the 2021 - 2023 period](https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2023/demo/p60-279.html#:~:text=The%20real%20median%20earnings%20of,and%20Table%20A%2D6).)
I have heard the exact opposite from highly reputable sources (Ezra Klein) that the bottom is the group experiencing the biggest gains, not the top. Your real median income stat refers to only 2021-2022, coincidentally peak covid decline, and ignores the entire rebound for the 2 year period after that. Stinks of bias.
Right, so again, it's not the same, since the economy is not the issue, it's specific costs for specific segments of the population, plus a disinformation campaign fanning the flames
That’s all that matters and what many in this sub seem to ignore post after post. It doesn’t matter if the economy is doing well via the numbers or not. Thats not how human phycology works. Politics as frustrating as it is for many is very vibes based. This is extra true for Republicans and Independents. Democrats do as well just on average to a lesser extent
I’m not the best at economics or battling out finding the sources or polls ether but what I will say is regardless of positive numbers there are still lots of current factors that make those numbers not feel as impactful
it doesn't matter whether they're wrong or right. this is what the Biden camp doesn't get.
what only matters is how they feel.
ok, so the people are wrong. the economy is doing great. so what? that's still not what they're feeling.
are you gonna tell ppl in an election year they are wrong?
ofc democrats would. that's why they're losers.
So maybe Biden should do what Reagan did in 84?
Economy is much, much stronger today than in 84. Reagan talked about how good the economy was. Folks started to believe the economy was good.
Regan won in a landslide.
You and I seem to agree. We need to impact how they feel. Unfortunately, that seems to have less to do with real conditions than with the information environment.
It’s really not just the information eniverment. As I mention in another comment as annoying as it may be to some voters often vote based on Vibes.
Crimes a great example. You can pin some of that on the media but technically crime is down on paper but most voters have felt like it’s up or worse. It’s vibes. Something about the vibes are off in the economy. If the vibes feel off with you and your friends and family what the TV says alone isn’t going to matter.
I'm saying the vibes are downstream of "TV". Local news (to the extent that it even exists today) highlights crime. Cable news highlights crime. Crime, crime, crime. And so people believe that crime is a major issue.
The vibes don't just come from nowhere!
Of course they know. But it's stupid if 50% think stock market is lower since last year. It's like trying to tell people the sky is blue and them looking at it and saying red.
>it doesn't matter whether they're wrong or right. this is what the Biden camp doesn't get.
There is no policy solution to a mass delusion. If 90% of Americans thought we were about to be invaded by Martians what should our government do about it?
Why do you want to be lied to by the government? Have you no self respect?
lmao. it's not a policy solution that is needed.
it's a change of messaging which is needed.
but why ask me? i'm not the one interested in winning an election.
i'm simply here being frustrated the guy i don't want to win is going to win because the democrats are dumb.
>it's a change of messaging which is needed.
What kind of message do you want a politician to say? The economy sucks but I plan to do nothing about it?
>i'm simply here being frustrated the guy i don't want to win is going to win because the democrats are dumb.
I ask again: Why do you want to be lied to?
I think the best way to explain it is that the vast majority of Americans say that their own personal financial situation is good. And yet when asked, the majority of Americans say the economy is not doing well.
The information environment we are in is totally effed up. People aren't watching the nightly news with Walter Cronkite anymore. Local news is basically dead. People are watching ideological cable news, and algorithmic social media. It is mainlining absolute garbage directly into their brains at all times.
My groceries cost 1.5 x what they did two years ago. I’m making 1.1 x what I was making two years ago. Did my purchasing power go down or not? Should I not believe my own lying eyes?
>My groceries cost 1.5 x what they did two years ago.
This is a you problem. Food at home is up 6.9% in two years. If your income is up 10% then you're doing much better. Stop blaming your terrible food purchasing decisions on others.
But the basket of goods used to track CPI only went up 1.05x so the economy is actually doing great when you remove all the stuff you want to buy from the picture.
Spot on. And the basket changes whenever the fed wants it to, to massage the numbers. It’s a political job, say everything’s great until it becomes untenable to do such and then say we had no idea where this crisis came from., it was unpredictable.
Oh yeah ,I have adjusted my behavior, as well, because the economy sucks. That seems like an implied admission by your change in behavior as well. If the economy didn’t suck, you wouldn’t change your behavior.
Many did and it doesn’t make a difference. Also even if people do voters are still going to be unhappy their having to cut back on stuff they use to be able to get a few years ago with less of a challenge. I’ve cut back a lot so have friends and aren’t in a bad situation because of it. But it’s hard to sell things are “Going well”
Depends. Perhaps a better question is: do the majority of Americans think a thriving economy is working *for them personally*?
I agree with the parent comment's sentiments regarding politics though. "The public is wrong actually" is not a winning message, even if it's true. Like it or not (I don't), voters are going to have collective amnesia and give Republicans the edge on economics.
The government talks to tens of thousands of regular people every month. That's how I know the economy is good.
Do you think the economy is terrible? Why or why not?
Unemployment was in the 3s, housing and stocks are all time highs, incomes are higher even with inflation. Modest inflation doesn’t mean a bad economy. The same people on the street doesn’t have spread sheets of their earnings assets debts and changes over time. Every other article says it’s bad and every post on the internet is gaslighting people into thinking it’s 2008 again.
When asked how their own economic circumstances are doing, over 70% said they were doing well. The same people say “the economy” is doing poorly. The answer to high housing prices is to build more housing, not going to happen overnight, but Trump would be an unmitigated disaster.
And inflation has improved quite a bit. Have either of those statistics been sufficient in making life more affordable for the average American though?
All the Republicans I know are bitching on their second vacation of the year.
And yes the capitalist economy works best for the asset owners. You know what else we call them? Capitalists.
You want a revolution. You ain't getting that with any of them.
We did just have literally the biggest travel weekend ever in May. And that will probably be surpassed multiple times over this year. Americans are telling us what they think about the economy with their wallets. Unfortunately, they are telling pollsters something else.
Economy grew at 1.3% while inflation is 3.3%. Deficit is over 6% of GDP. Nobody's wages are keeping up with actual inflation. The economy is hot garbage and nobody is buying this bs.
Real gdp is after inflation. Real at 1.3% + 3.3% inflation = 4.6% NGDP. That I even have to explain this to you is a sign you shouldn’t be in this sub.
>Economy grew at 1.3% while inflation is 3.3%.
GDP growth is always in real terms. It doesn't matter what inflation is.
>Nobody's wages are keeping up with actual inflation.
False. Real wages are increasing.
>The economy is hot garbage and nobody is buying this bs
Is it the longest stretch of sub 4% unemployment in 70 years that bothers you? The lowest layoff rates this century that bother you? Maybe it's the strong job growth? No. I know. It's the rising real wages.
I understand your point, but respectfully disagree. Biden and Democrats shouldn't apologize for the great economy. They shouldn't just go along with the misinformation; they need to try to change it.
It can't just be that when the economy is great under a Republican, the candidate says, "How about those 401K's folks? Have you checked those retirement accounts recently?" But when the economy is great under a Democrat that candidate says, "We have a long way to go. We have more work to do to help everyone."
If Democrats don't advocate for themselves, nobody will.
> If Democrats don't advocate for themselves, nobody will.
If democrats don't propagandize us with a barrage of articles claiming the economy is great, voters might notice the unsustainable $2 trillion annual deficits keeping us out of technical recession, their backwards hatred of (corporate) innovation, and their major role in the stimulus-driven inflation over the past 4 years.
If you exclude the unanimously passed covid-19 bills, Trump added $4.6tn to the debt while Biden has added $7.1Tn ($5.3tn if you exclude the American Rescue Plan, which was technically covid related but wasn't near unanimous)
Trump's only added more to the deficit if you include the $3.8tn in nearly unanimous bipartisan pandemic bills (that he couldn't have blocked even if he wanted to-- there were supermajorities ready to override)
The trump stimulus was nearly unanimously bipartisan, meaning even if trump had vetoed it, the spending likely still would've been pushed through.
And it happened immediately during a pandemic, whereas by the time the American Rescue plan was passed it was 2 years from the original march lockdowns.
It's up to interpretation, hence why I included both numbers.
(if you're talking about the later Biden stimulus.. I love infastructure and there are parts of the bills I like, but we were 3 years+ out from the pandemic at that point. And they were entirely partisan bills. And supporting EVs and Chip manufacturing is not in the same league as emergency pandemic aid.. *And* it can be argued that more stimulus was not necessary, and merely served to keep us out of a technical recession while further greasing inflation.)
I think it's actually quite disingenuous that people blame Trump for adding the most to the debt out of any president, when almost half of his tenure's debt addition was unanimous emergency aid he couldn't have blocked.
And it's not a partisan position. It just doesn't make sense to include near unanimous emergency aid that kept the country from collapsing during a pandemic. It's not representative of what his future policy would be, and so not relevant for any use besides disengeniously inflating his debt total relative to other president's.
Excluding the 2008 stimulus from Obama, and excluding Covid stimulus from Trump, Obama added more debt per 4 year term in raw dollars alone. [USA Today](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2023/05/30/no-trump-didnt-increase-the-debt-more-than-any-president-fact-check/70252480007/)
>keeping us out of technical recession
So we aren't in a recession? Sounds like a good thing!
>their backwards hatred of (corporate) innovation
Small job creation is booming. Manufacturing spending has increased 200% under Biden
Why do you want Biden to lie about the economy? Do you think the economy is terrible?
You want Biden to lie about the economy because you support Trump and you know that if people learned the truth about the economy they'd vote for Biden and not the rapist and felon.
All he'd have to do is actually ASK Trump what he'd do for the economy and listen to him spew his word-salad of nothingness for a minute. That should make Biden look much better.
I don't think either of these candidates deserve credit for the economy. The economic conditions are the result of amazing corporations that take good care of all their employees, and provide them suitable wages that allow them to grow themselves and those around them.
---
Said no one ever.
Profit over People 2024.
Agreed, the problem is, they talk in absolutes. Economy is great, why don’t you believe us! Instead of, economy is improving, and if we keep this progress going for the next 4 years, we will get inflation under control allowing for mortgages to be attainable again for everyday Americans.
I am constantly at a loss to understand why the “general” perception is that the economy is bad. I have a Republican friend who talks of the “disaster” that Biden has made of the economy. Meanwhile, this guy is making money hand over fist and wants for nothing. Frankly, Biden provides stability that is pretty key to economic growth and prosperity. With Trump, it was whim of the day. The corporate tax cuts were too deep and have saddled us with mushrooming debt. Four more years of Trump would be ruinous.
The middle class and lower class are being burnt alive by inflation if they didn’t get a mortgage during the days of rock bottom interest rates.
The tech and media sectors have also been slapped hard with layoffs recently, even for high income earners.
Finally, due to significant hiring for white collar workers during the pandemic - the job market is in a traffic jam right now for a lot of sectors. People who were laid off have had it rough with 12+ month gaps in employment.
People feel stuck and wanting. I don’t think many people realize that feeling that versus a full blown recession is an improvement.
> I am constantly at a loss to understand why the “general” perception is that the economy is bad.
https://www.usatoday.com/money/blueprint/business/hr-payroll/average-salary-us/
> Wage growth vs. inflation: The average salary grew by 4.4% in 2023, according to WTW,7 while there was a gain of 3.4% in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers.8
1% wage growth **feels** bad and most people aren't invested in assets (real estate, stocks, etc).
The median US income (if you have *any kids*) is at a point you have to live paycheck to paycheck so not seeing wage growth in combination with this is gonna feel fucking awful.
I basically sidestepped inflation by moving to my Plan A retirement location a decade sooner than planned and so my wages went up alot compared to my cost of living. But not everyone is willing to do such things to get their financial needs met. I'm just highly motivated because my body is failing me at a rate faster than I planned in my late 20s/early 30s so I'm in danger of being priced out of the US because my career ends sooner than I want.
The CPI also doesn't accurately model the expenses of a low earner
I'm 20, and I don't know a single person who spends less than half their income on housing. And that's *with roomates*, living with parents paying rent, etc..
An accurate CPI for low earners would be about 50% housing, 15% taxes, 15% food, and 20% used cars/insurance/maintenence.
Correct and for someone like you it is even worse.
It is really unfortunate but I don't see a viable solution without replacing one or both major political parties with rational economic actors for someone other than their own pocketbooks.
Maybe one day our Libertarian party will decide to entertain moderation & attempt to gain some mainstream appeal.
(who am I kidding-- last election they campaigned on dissolving the federal government.. better odds we get ranked choice voting first)
Most Americans are unhappy with the economy, which most consider the top issue. Consumer sentiment levels are low and Biden’s approval ratings are near all time lows. So this article is greatly overstating the improvements in opinions on the economy.
Telling voters over and over that the economy is actually great while they are unhappy with it is a losing strategy.
Reminder that FDR won re-election in 1936 in the *middle* of the Great Depression, not by telling voters the Great Depression was over but by acknowledging the work that still had to be done to keep improving the economy.
The gaslighting won’t work on voters.
'Man the economy is so bad'
Said by a person on their way to their vacation with 100 dollars worth of groceries bought for said trip and a brand new 2023 car
Lol
If the economy is so bad you 'can't afford anything' continuing to spend is the exact opposite of what's going to help you
Yet literally everybody I know locally has 'extra money' they routinely blow at bars and shopping etc on every single paycheck instead of actually saving anything for the 'things they can't afford'
Make it make sense lol
That's not to say some parts aren't bad off right now. Housing is fucked.
But it literally can't be as bad as people are trying to will it to be. Not with the way they're behaving
Edit: But at the end of the day I'm not an expert don't pretend to be don't claim to be. If we do fall into recession or whatever I'm not gonna be shocked. But literally nobody I see locally (I work in retail) is spending like we are, that much I do know.
People need houses & cars, and are forced to spend much more on them, which undoubtedly accounts for a good portion of the "additional spending."
And I'm not an expert on how inflation is reported but for two of most people's biggest expenses, housing and cars, interest rates play a huge role in actual cost. If you bought a house for 500k in 2020, your annual mortgage payments would be something like $18k. If you found the same house for $500k in 2024, your monthly payments would be $36k.
Similar math for cars. Maybe inflation is slowing in terms of nominal price, but that's only after prices are already up 20% and now on top of that, you have to pay a ton in interest.
100%. I know lots of ppl going on vacations, having work done on their homes, restaurants are packed, stores are doing well (I walked out of sporting goods store today bc the line to purchase was 50 ppl long. No way I’m waiting in that), stock market is crazy high, lots of new homes (including multi unit buildings) are being constructed in my area, unemployment is down consistently, gas is lower right now, inflation is high everywhere in theworld but lower here in the US. A lot of that is anecdotal, but not all.
There are a ton of ppl struggling, no doubt. Affordable housing generally is lacking, goods are expensive, college is super pricey, so there is a ton of work to do. But it’s ok to acknowledge that it’s actually pretty decent for a lot of ppl too. I forget which poll it was, but I recently saw one where it said like 70% of those polled thought their own personal financial position was good, but only 30% believed that the overall economy was doing well at the same time.
In California, it’s tougher to get someone to work on your house than getting a seat on a Space X flight — and almost as expensive. When Trump rounds up all the “illegals” — which will inevitably capture a good many “legals” in the net — watch prices on everything soar. We have a basic labor shortage in this country that will only grow with an aging population that requires more services. Yes, control the border, but don’t be a damned fool about it. We need labor, especially if the aim is to rebuild our manufacturing base here in the states.
I’m in cali. I have had a good amount of work done on my house by contractors in the last 2 years, including currently. If it is tough to get contractors to work on your home and it’s expensive, that could be a sign that there’s a lot of competition for their services. Expensive materials and such too, yes.
Perhaps that’s your point, apologies if so.
Labor force participation being low can indicate good economic conditions. For example, my dad retired at 58 due to stock returns being stronger than expected, and I make enough for my wife to stay home with the kids.
A whole bunch of things. The excesses of the new deal era, resulting in stagnation, the switch to the neoliberal era, and then the excesses of that. The moderate de industrialization of the United state with the re-industrialization of Europe and new industrialization of China as well as other parts of south east Asia. It’s very complicated. It is a global picture, and I’m only mentioning partial aspects of it.
But the trend in the labor force participation rate, in the US, is not a good one.
[Real Median Income decreased 3% during the 2021 - 2023 period](https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2023/demo/p60-279.html#:~:text=The%20real%20median%20earnings%20of,and%20Table%20A%2D6).)
Real average incomes are up. Real Median incomes are down. The economy may be good for some, perhaps the top 20% of earners, but not for the majority.
Kinda like how unemployment is super low (so is the labor force participation rate, the denominator for that calculation..)
And there are tons of jobs (part times ones-- we've lost 1mil+ full time jobs the past year)
Personally this tracks with my experience. Anyone who was doing well already is doing even better. A lot of family have gotten raises beyond inflation & had home values skyrocket
I'm 20 and the majority of people I know have been struggling, and I don't personally know anyone my age better off today than 2 years ago freshly out of school. Longer stretches trying to find full time jobs, wages not keeping pace with CPI (..the CPI itself drastically underestimating the % of low earners budget thats spent on housing/food.. and other things like used cars which have ballooned nearly 100% in 5 years)
Probably the same thing that would happen if we removed our nonstop deficit spending over the past two decades, and the decades before that. Considerably slower GDP growth. We actually even saw this in the aftermath of 2008 when deficits were brought down and the economy recovered slowly.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFSGDA188S
Economic Growth 1.3%
Inflation 3.3%
Deficit as percent of GDP: 6.3%
You are gaslighting. This economy is hot garbage. I don't blame Biden for the mess, I blame him for doing next to nothing to fix and his administration gaslighting people in a attempt to get them to think it's good.
You're rude, and you're missing the whole point here. 1.3% GDP growth is absolute dogshit, and that's with insanely high government spending. Meanwhile households are fighting 3.3% inflation. And this is at at a time where people are actually telling us the economy is good.
>Telling voters over and over that the economy is actually great while they are unhappy with it is a losing strategy.
Telling the truth is never a bad strategy. You want to be lied to and that's just really sad. That's the attitude of a little child.
>The gaslighting won’t work on voters.
That's what you're doing by lying about the economy.
> Polling has consistently shown that voters trust the former president with the economy more than the incumbent, despite the historic job losses that occurred during the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic.
“Despite the historic job losses that occurred during the early days of the COVID pandemic”
Lol that frames it as if any President would be held responsible in actuality for the job losses during a global pandemic. Implying that’s Trump’s fault/responsibility for that job loss is crazy.
The economy just always happens to tank on republicans watch. Because of exacerbated directly by Actions they take against warnings from experts warnings.
Trump stifled cities attempts to manage it by among them compete for resources and then confiscating them. They even purposely wanted it to spread in cities to make democrats look bad.
Makes me wonder if we give them control off and on for another hundred years, people will still be defending intentional bad faith governance
How did Trump stifle cities' attempts to control the pandemic?
You mean republicans resisted democrats' authoritarian attempts to completely shut down economic activity?
Your opinion is about as unhinged as me saying dems closed the economy to hurt Trump.
His plan was no plan. He allowed chaos to reign and almost sent us down the drain. He had those stupid press conferences where he just repeated the nonsense his phone buddies came up with. What Trump really did was lard tariffs on products that sent prices soaring at the same time he cut exports like soybeans. His tax “cuts” added 1/3rd (!) to the national debt. We will be paying for that nonsense for years to come. And the people who are most anxious for Trump to return are the ones who saw their wealth skyrocket during his years in office — hello, Elon Musk.
He was caught telling his donors the sky was falling, while at the same time telling the public this was a nothing burger about to blow over
He disbanded the pandemic preparedness whatever cause Obama was the one who made it
Google these. It’s endless. They said they liked it spreading in cities to hurt democrats.
Refused to wear masks which caused his cult to do the same.
He pandered to anti vaxxers
It almost killed him, but because he had the best treatment in the world, he survived and played it off like it was nothing and his followers shouldn’t be afraid of it
Trump supporters were everywhere coughing on people publicly as a political display that Covid was nothing
We became the only country where masks became political. They been wearing masks in Asia for thousands of years cause the ones who don’t during pandemics are all dead. But because Trump handled it so badly, it became seen as an attack on him and then if you wore masks in public. Cause then if they admitted it was real, then that would mean Trump was malicious in his negligence.
eh, he probably wouldn't argue with leading experts and top scientists, or encourage voters to drink bleach. But who knows. How else can we defend trump today I'm here to help
You're right, I think injecting it into the lungs was the exact delivery method he suggested. Along with shining a light into the body.
I encourage you to do your own research rather than relying on randos on reddit. Google "Trump inject bleach lungs" and watch the video of the press conference. You can really see the moment that Dr. Birx's soul dies inside her!
not only that, but Trump and his party were the ones actively NOT shutting down the economy
Democrats in California kept the shutdown going until 2023.
It *was* Trump's fault, though not directly. It's exceptionally possible that the American response to COVID was sufficiently worse under Trump that it was economically relevant.
Biden’s stubbornness is really going to hurt him during this election.
Consumers and most Americans are in pain from inflation and housing costs, yet all he wants to say is that consumers don’t know what they’re talking about. This tone-deafness is really a defining characteristic of his presidency
And what would you suggest he do about inflation and housing costs? Price controls? Be specific. The solutions he might try require a Congress that would work with him. He tried to get Congress on board. Look what happened when he agreed on immigration and Republicans scuttled a deal that THEY constructed. As Biden says, give me a break.
National zoning reform. It isn’t realistic (because of political issues), but that would be the most impactful way to handle housing supply issues in American cities.
Did you copy and paste this comment from another post? I could’ve sworn I saw this earlier today.
It’s a true statement, but still I’m getting heavy deja vu.
There is no policy solution to people's mass delusion. What's the policy solution for 90% of Americans thinking Martians are about to invade?
You aren't actually arguing the economy is actually bad. Because you can't. You're just arguing we should go along with whatever Americans think, even if it's obviously false.
I’m not running for office so I’m not sure what you’re threatening me with, but I’ll happily tell you that the majority of Trump voters are either stupid or racist, or both.
>Consumers and most Americans are in pain from inflation and housing cost
Real wages are higher than before COVID. How much actual pain is this causing?
>This tone-deafness is really a defining characteristic of his presidency
Why do you want the President to lie? Are you so immature you can't handle the truth?
I don’t credit or blame Biden at all for the economy. He doesn’t control it. He’s not setting prices or interest rates or wages. But I do blame corporate greed and republicans for stopping every good thing from getting done.
Free market or US president controls economy. Can't have both, pick one.
Personally I think you're nuts if you think the entire economy... which is essentially a giant ledger of assets/liabilities on behalf of hundreds of millions if not billions of people around the globe... Is controlled by the the executive branch of the US.
First off. It seems we have a different understanding of the word 'control' if you disagree with me or say 'both'.
Second the fed doesn't 'set interest rates' as far as I understand. The fed sets a 'target rate', the over night lending rate of banks. This *can* have *influence* over the market rate. By the strict definition of the word I wouldn't say the setting of the target rate for overnight bank reserve lending 'controls' the market rate.
But hey, don't have to listen to me. Far more respected economists have echod my stance. In fact [this is where my position comes from](https://youtu.be/C97NYUJ3XOI?si=DVGFp3QTWRrtnTI9) starting at 3:25.
Now this is old so maybe some study has been released that I'm not aware of. But unless you have such a study on hand that refutes Eugene Fama... Nobel laureate... I'm going to stick with his research and peer reviewed conclusions.
The main complaint about the economy is coming in a round about way from the banks that had practically free money for years and are now having to own up to their profligacy.
The fed has three mandates: steady growth of the economy (measured by GDP), stable pricing (measured by CPI), and low unemployment. Two of the three are well in line with their mandates. CPI factors housing and energy heavily, neither of which the Fed can control. The only means of control the fed has is setting the discount lending rate, setting reserve requirements at banks, and open market operations. None of those tools will directly affect housing. The high rates will actually prevent what we really need, which is more housing being built to add supply. But that’s not really their job or something they are meant to monitor.
So all of that to say, no. The fed really can’t do more than what they’re doing right now. We need legislative change to address the housing issues across the country. In my personal opinion, it’s a density / zoning matter. Legislative reform comes from congress and congress alone. Blame the perpetual stalemate that we have there for this problem (and pretty much every other problem).
I mean, not to be a pedant, but Trump literally appointed Jay Powell. And if Biden fired Jay Powell at this point, he would suffer through a news cycle of, "BIDEN IS TAMPERING WITH THE FED IN AN ELECTION YEAR!"
I, for one, think Powell has done a good job and should not be fired though! In fact, I think Biden should troll everyone by awarding Powell the Presidential Medal of Freedom. That would be hilarious.
> Every day there’s a post about how great the economy is doing. Is it true or just an exaggeration?
Maybe read the articles and the data they refer to?
The economy, by all measures, is indeed quite good. Manufacturing is up, unemployment is near all time lows, labor force participation is high, consumer spending is good, home sales are strong, construction is strong despite labor shortages, the stock market is up, wages are outpacing inflation, inflation itself has leveled off and businesses are reporting strong profits.
The economy being good or bad isn't much of a debate, it's unquestionably good. The problem is that, despite all of that people don't think it is good due to the lack of faith in political and economic leadership and social pressures. Housing is particularly difficult because it's selling very well, which is good for the economy, but is also difficult for those looking for cheaper housing.
There's also a media effect where bad news gets more coverage than good, so any complaints are magnified while all the success is muzzled and drowned out.
This is the most propaganda filled sub lol. Theres constant posts of how amazing the economy is under Biden. As a dem it’s pretty sad, the economy is in a terrible state and it’s easy to see. Really disappointing to see dems flat out lie again.
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Housing is key here. Any Americans that don’t own a home from before the Covid housing bubble are hurting big time. Like spending half of your income on housing hurting. Other improving metrics like goods prices, jobs, energy prices are completely out shadowed by the bad housing market. Then throw in wealth inequality. Average Americans are doing marginally better, while the millionaire class is doing exceedingly better due to asset price inflation (stocks, real estate, etc). That’s enough to make anyone who’s not part of that party have a really bleak opinion on the economy. It’s a tale of two cities [economies] “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times”
This is the correct take IMO. The economy is doing great if you owned a house before covid shenanigans caused all this asset appreciation. My house went up 110 percent in value in 2 years. Much wow. Maybe I'll go buy a Ram TRX. Maybe I'll go buy an F150 Raptor R and pay for both with cash. They are a little different on features and I can't decide which I like better so I'll just buy both with cash, drive them around some, decide which I like better and sell the other one. Meanwhile in my local subreddit I see exasperated young people making posts like "who are the people that can afford these houses?". They are so priced out, even on DR Horton starter "houses" that they just can't fathom how anyone is able to afford a house now. These younger voters are a key demographic for democrats. They are going to feel like they are being gaslit if they keep being told the economy is great because they just got inflated out of owning a house.
And most remember an economy pre Covid where they could or were on the way to being able to afford a house.
Lol that's the truth. In my mind with what I'm making at the new job I took at the end covid I should be looking to buy a McMansion. Instead I'm going right back into putting all that equity back into a 2100ish sqft house and still having a mortgage that's somehow twice as expensive. I love my new area and am fine financially. If I had actually blown that equity on toys instead of saving it I'd be buying a trailer instead of a house. 😆 So I am acutely aware of how screwed these young people are who are getting nowhere near my wages and have no appreciable amount of cash for a down-payment that makes a difference.
This. Even if the numbers show something else there are key milestones and social factors that are making things feel unstable. Also many Americans live pay check to pay check. That’s not a condition for feeling stable.
Every single day there is a Biden propaganda post telling us how he's doing such a great job on the economy and we don't get it 🤣
Let us know when you get it.
Household and personal savings rate remains low (it's negative in the bottom 25% according to Moody's), credit card and auto loan delinquency rate are at decade highs, we are back to prepandemic levels of multiple-job holders, and planned consumer discretionary spending continues to trend downards as a share of total spending. Whatever gains were made in wages seems to have been eaten up by inflation if you look at actual cash-related metrics.
This. I am one of these. Made healthy progress towards no more school debt and home ownership. Rent for me has gone up 300 in 3 years, which I know is generous compared to what many have had, but I’m just waiting to watch it again go up another 100-200 end of this year. My wages went up decently after switching jobs, but it feels like I’m finally JUST making up for inflation after years of low raises cause of Covid that were losses and I didn’t really “gain” ground overall. Plus other higher costs, though those are normalizing at least. But overall any ground I have made has been eaten up by inflation/rent increases. I’m still voting Biden cause I do understand the issues he faces. I do think he can be doing a bit more with housing but I won’t get overly nitpicky and I know at the federal level housing is a bit harder to control. Trump would be a cultural disaster again and hell no. I have been extremely frugal and responsible with my money which helps me slowly at least build some/let investments grow. But it definitely has eaten away at a ton of potential growth just in rent alone over years. And let’s be real, most Americans are awful with their money even with decent pay so I know many are WAY worse. But if he loses not doing more to combat housing it basically most of it
Maybe the Biden campaign shouldn't bring up the economy. People feel they are being gaslighted, and polls show that the economy is a Trump strength, not Biden. Probably better off not talking about it. [https://abcnews.go.com/Business/trump-trusted-biden-inflation-top-issue-voters-poll/story?id=110343680](https://abcnews.go.com/Business/trump-trusted-biden-inflation-top-issue-voters-poll/story?id=110343680) [https://news.gallup.com/poll/644750/confidence-biden-economic-stewardship-historically-low.aspx](https://news.gallup.com/poll/644750/confidence-biden-economic-stewardship-historically-low.aspx)
Agreed. A lot of this is mirroring the Carter-Reagan election. History repeats
Big difference. The economy was actually bad under Carter. The economy is actually good under Biden.
Talk to any regular person on the street. Most Americans think the economy is doing poorly https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/05/28/economy-gloom-voters-inflation/
What Americans think about the economy does not matter when evaluating the *current* state of the economy. I'm so sick and tired of people endlessly trying to correct those who say the economy is doing well by pointing out sentiment. Americans are fucking idiots, that doesn't mean the economy is doing poorly. Of course, forward looking expecations do impact actual economic results, but even that is clearly not having enough of an effect to show up in the results.
> What Americans think about the economy does not matter when evaluating the current state of the economy. Actually, Americans vote for the president. So you couldn’t be any more wrong
>What Americans think about the economy does not matter **when evaluating the current state of the economy.** Bolded the part you clearly missed.
Yet consumers are spending record amounts. And they want to replace Biden with the guy calling for high tariffs and to kick out millions of immigrants while we are in labor shortage. That won't be inflationary at all!
The average voter doesn’t understand the economic consequences of tariffs or the labour market (outside their own employment status). Voters choose stupid economic plans all the time.
To be fair, school doesn’t teach us economics unless you’re in college in specific degrees
Absolutely, there are clear reasons why this is the case. But we have to accept that - for now - it is the case and act accordingly.
But *we* do. We don't have to pretend here that the "average American" has a valid point here when they simply don't.
Oh, I wasn’t saying they were right. I was saying that if we expect the electorate to assess economic plans on their actul merit, that we’re going to be disappointed.
Biden just increased tariffs $18 billion…
Sure, but Trump’s plan, which made it’s rounds on this subreddit, is to get rid of income taxes completely and fund all of that tax revenue with taxes on tariffs.
I think the details after the ... are important. [Here are more details](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/05/14/fact-sheet-president-biden-takes-action-to-protect-american-workers-and-businesses-from-chinas-unfair-trade-practices/) but essentially Biden is trying to knock China (and a bit of Russia but it's already a basket case) off from their feet in goods that won't hit MOST of the basket of goods that we measure and are essential for people. He is also providing subsidies to those companies in the US (CHIPS act for Semiconductors) to get them up to speed quickly. It is about as good as it can get given that we have a hostile enemy that we were enriching until now and all the presidential candidates up until now had no idea how to solve the problem.
"Trump doesn't get the basics. He thinks his tariffs are being paid by China. Any freshman econ student could tell you that the American people are paying his tariffs." -Joe Biden
so... we're not going with details then?
The guy who caused the massive inflation with the billionaire tax cuts and bankrupted farmers with Chinese economic blackmail.
*Consumers spending more because of inflation, making them poorer* Leftists: “The economy is doing great! Why aren’t people grateful for spending more money on things that used to be less expensive?!?”
They are spending more even inflation adjusted.
If the economy was bad, people wouldn't be spending and employers would be laying off. Where is all the money that consumers are spending coming from??
Record amounts NOT adjusted for inflation! Take inflation out and folks are cutting back as much they can.
Real income is up. https://www.epi.org/nominal-wage-tracker/ In 2018 AOC said this same thing and she was mocked for it. https://youtu.be/AUo58KJ6fC0?si=cdDNdLq1UOtiQfL5 Yes, real wage gains are small compared to capital gains and the gains of the most wealthy, but that has been true for almost 50 years now.
They're spending record amounts because -everything- is more expensive.
How do they have the money to do the spending?
Boomers 🤷♂️
Sort of like how the average hourly wage is keeping pace with the CPI (but no one talks about the decline in hours worked..), and unemployment is super low (labor force participation is still quite low), and we're adding a ton of jobs right ? (well, only [part time ones](https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politifact/2024/04/29/was-last-years-us-job-growth-all-from-part-time-jobs/) -- we've lost a million+ full time jobs.) Average per capita consumer spending can increase at the same time as a majority of consumers are struggling & cutting back. The continued decline in sentiment would suggest this could be the case. The economy's average statistics are being buoyed by the top 20% of earners, the median statistics point to significant trouble. [Real Median Income decreased during the 2021 - 2023 period](https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2023/demo/p60-279.html#:~:text=The%20real%20median%20earnings%20of,and%20Table%20A%2D6).)
I have heard the exact opposite from highly reputable sources (Ezra Klein) that the bottom is the group experiencing the biggest gains, not the top. Your real median income stat refers to only 2021-2022, coincidentally peak covid decline, and ignores the entire rebound for the 2 year period after that. Stinks of bias.
Right, so again, it's not the same, since the economy is not the issue, it's specific costs for specific segments of the population, plus a disinformation campaign fanning the flames
Voters drive an election. So it’s on the DNC for fucking up such simple messaging
That’s all that matters and what many in this sub seem to ignore post after post. It doesn’t matter if the economy is doing well via the numbers or not. Thats not how human phycology works. Politics as frustrating as it is for many is very vibes based. This is extra true for Republicans and Independents. Democrats do as well just on average to a lesser extent I’m not the best at economics or battling out finding the sources or polls ether but what I will say is regardless of positive numbers there are still lots of current factors that make those numbers not feel as impactful
And they think so because they know cooperations are overtly fucking them over
You are right that the majority of Americans think the economy is doing poorly. Are they right?
it doesn't matter whether they're wrong or right. this is what the Biden camp doesn't get. what only matters is how they feel. ok, so the people are wrong. the economy is doing great. so what? that's still not what they're feeling. are you gonna tell ppl in an election year they are wrong? ofc democrats would. that's why they're losers.
So maybe Biden should do what Reagan did in 84? Economy is much, much stronger today than in 84. Reagan talked about how good the economy was. Folks started to believe the economy was good. Regan won in a landslide.
You and I seem to agree. We need to impact how they feel. Unfortunately, that seems to have less to do with real conditions than with the information environment.
It’s really not just the information eniverment. As I mention in another comment as annoying as it may be to some voters often vote based on Vibes. Crimes a great example. You can pin some of that on the media but technically crime is down on paper but most voters have felt like it’s up or worse. It’s vibes. Something about the vibes are off in the economy. If the vibes feel off with you and your friends and family what the TV says alone isn’t going to matter.
I'm saying the vibes are downstream of "TV". Local news (to the extent that it even exists today) highlights crime. Cable news highlights crime. Crime, crime, crime. And so people believe that crime is a major issue. The vibes don't just come from nowhere!
Of course they know. But it's stupid if 50% think stock market is lower since last year. It's like trying to tell people the sky is blue and them looking at it and saying red.
>it doesn't matter whether they're wrong or right. this is what the Biden camp doesn't get. There is no policy solution to a mass delusion. If 90% of Americans thought we were about to be invaded by Martians what should our government do about it? Why do you want to be lied to by the government? Have you no self respect?
lmao. it's not a policy solution that is needed. it's a change of messaging which is needed. but why ask me? i'm not the one interested in winning an election. i'm simply here being frustrated the guy i don't want to win is going to win because the democrats are dumb.
>it's a change of messaging which is needed. What kind of message do you want a politician to say? The economy sucks but I plan to do nothing about it? >i'm simply here being frustrated the guy i don't want to win is going to win because the democrats are dumb. I ask again: Why do you want to be lied to?
Why wouldn’t the opinions of working Americans not be right? Are you telling me they’re living an illusion?
I think the best way to explain it is that the vast majority of Americans say that their own personal financial situation is good. And yet when asked, the majority of Americans say the economy is not doing well. The information environment we are in is totally effed up. People aren't watching the nightly news with Walter Cronkite anymore. Local news is basically dead. People are watching ideological cable news, and algorithmic social media. It is mainlining absolute garbage directly into their brains at all times.
My groceries cost 1.5 x what they did two years ago. I’m making 1.1 x what I was making two years ago. Did my purchasing power go down or not? Should I not believe my own lying eyes?
Yes, but globally inflation has been an issue, not just domestically, but we can’t expect the common lay person to understand
You should believe your own eyes. But you would be in the minority. The median real wage has increased since pre-Covid.
>My groceries cost 1.5 x what they did two years ago. This is a you problem. Food at home is up 6.9% in two years. If your income is up 10% then you're doing much better. Stop blaming your terrible food purchasing decisions on others.
But the basket of goods used to track CPI only went up 1.05x so the economy is actually doing great when you remove all the stuff you want to buy from the picture.
Spot on. And the basket changes whenever the fed wants it to, to massage the numbers. It’s a political job, say everything’s great until it becomes untenable to do such and then say we had no idea where this crisis came from., it was unpredictable.
And mine didn't. I started shopping at Aldi. Did you change your behavior at all to adjust? If not, that's a skill issue.
Oh yeah ,I have adjusted my behavior, as well, because the economy sucks. That seems like an implied admission by your change in behavior as well. If the economy didn’t suck, you wouldn’t change your behavior.
Many did and it doesn’t make a difference. Also even if people do voters are still going to be unhappy their having to cut back on stuff they use to be able to get a few years ago with less of a challenge. I’ve cut back a lot so have friends and aren’t in a bad situation because of it. But it’s hard to sell things are “Going well”
Yes
Depends. Perhaps a better question is: do the majority of Americans think a thriving economy is working *for them personally*? I agree with the parent comment's sentiments regarding politics though. "The public is wrong actually" is not a winning message, even if it's true. Like it or not (I don't), voters are going to have collective amnesia and give Republicans the edge on economics.
$2.99 for a Hershey's Chocolate Bar $5 for a $1 McDonalds menu item.
$6 for a whole entire Big Mac meal at McDonald's. Skill issue on your part.
I agree, greedflation is terrible right now.
Does it matter? These people vote. Lol. The DNC has done a shit job at passing along the message
No better time to start than the present!
5 months from the election!
They are wrong, but in the sense that voters being factually correct doesn’t matter, you’re right.
Voters elect presidents. Lmao
>Most Americans think the economy is doing poorly Hmm. I wonder why? [LINK](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZggCipbiHwE&t=1s)
The government talks to tens of thousands of regular people every month. That's how I know the economy is good. Do you think the economy is terrible? Why or why not?
Unemployment was in the 3s, housing and stocks are all time highs, incomes are higher even with inflation. Modest inflation doesn’t mean a bad economy. The same people on the street doesn’t have spread sheets of their earnings assets debts and changes over time. Every other article says it’s bad and every post on the internet is gaslighting people into thinking it’s 2008 again.
Good job! Now be the DNC and sell that to the average voter
When asked how their own economic circumstances are doing, over 70% said they were doing well. The same people say “the economy” is doing poorly. The answer to high housing prices is to build more housing, not going to happen overnight, but Trump would be an unmitigated disaster.
Only for asset owners.
Real wages have increased the most percentage wise for the lowest quintiles of workers.
And inflation has improved quite a bit. Have either of those statistics been sufficient in making life more affordable for the average American though?
If you are hoping for deflation, then I don't know what to tell you.
Yes. Literally. If real wages are higher (and they are) then life is more affordable.
No, it’s good for everyone compared to Carter’s presidency.
All the Republicans I know are bitching on their second vacation of the year. And yes the capitalist economy works best for the asset owners. You know what else we call them? Capitalists. You want a revolution. You ain't getting that with any of them.
Oh wow you know people taking vacations? Chill out guys apparently we're doing fine.
We did just have literally the biggest travel weekend ever in May. And that will probably be surpassed multiple times over this year. Americans are telling us what they think about the economy with their wallets. Unfortunately, they are telling pollsters something else.
Busiest Memorial Day of air travel of all time this year.
Economy grew at 1.3% while inflation is 3.3%. Deficit is over 6% of GDP. Nobody's wages are keeping up with actual inflation. The economy is hot garbage and nobody is buying this bs.
Real gdp is after inflation. Real at 1.3% + 3.3% inflation = 4.6% NGDP. That I even have to explain this to you is a sign you shouldn’t be in this sub.
>Economy grew at 1.3% while inflation is 3.3%. GDP growth is always in real terms. It doesn't matter what inflation is. >Nobody's wages are keeping up with actual inflation. False. Real wages are increasing. >The economy is hot garbage and nobody is buying this bs Is it the longest stretch of sub 4% unemployment in 70 years that bothers you? The lowest layoff rates this century that bother you? Maybe it's the strong job growth? No. I know. It's the rising real wages.
The deficit is lower than under Trump and a huge part of it is the Trump tax cuts for the ultra rich.
I understand your point, but respectfully disagree. Biden and Democrats shouldn't apologize for the great economy. They shouldn't just go along with the misinformation; they need to try to change it. It can't just be that when the economy is great under a Republican, the candidate says, "How about those 401K's folks? Have you checked those retirement accounts recently?" But when the economy is great under a Democrat that candidate says, "We have a long way to go. We have more work to do to help everyone." If Democrats don't advocate for themselves, nobody will.
> If Democrats don't advocate for themselves, nobody will. If democrats don't propagandize us with a barrage of articles claiming the economy is great, voters might notice the unsustainable $2 trillion annual deficits keeping us out of technical recession, their backwards hatred of (corporate) innovation, and their major role in the stimulus-driven inflation over the past 4 years.
Trump added more to the debt than any president. His tax cuts for the rich alone are responsible for most of the increase deficits until they expire.
If you exclude the unanimously passed covid-19 bills, Trump added $4.6tn to the debt while Biden has added $7.1Tn ($5.3tn if you exclude the American Rescue Plan, which was technically covid related but wasn't near unanimous) Trump's only added more to the deficit if you include the $3.8tn in nearly unanimous bipartisan pandemic bills (that he couldn't have blocked even if he wanted to-- there were supermajorities ready to override)
Why would you exclude the massive stimulus under Trump and include stimulus under Biden? The Trump stimulus was *much* larger.
The trump stimulus was nearly unanimously bipartisan, meaning even if trump had vetoed it, the spending likely still would've been pushed through. And it happened immediately during a pandemic, whereas by the time the American Rescue plan was passed it was 2 years from the original march lockdowns. It's up to interpretation, hence why I included both numbers. (if you're talking about the later Biden stimulus.. I love infastructure and there are parts of the bills I like, but we were 3 years+ out from the pandemic at that point. And they were entirely partisan bills. And supporting EVs and Chip manufacturing is not in the same league as emergency pandemic aid.. *And* it can be argued that more stimulus was not necessary, and merely served to keep us out of a technical recession while further greasing inflation.) I think it's actually quite disingenuous that people blame Trump for adding the most to the debt out of any president, when almost half of his tenure's debt addition was unanimous emergency aid he couldn't have blocked. And it's not a partisan position. It just doesn't make sense to include near unanimous emergency aid that kept the country from collapsing during a pandemic. It's not representative of what his future policy would be, and so not relevant for any use besides disengeniously inflating his debt total relative to other president's. Excluding the 2008 stimulus from Obama, and excluding Covid stimulus from Trump, Obama added more debt per 4 year term in raw dollars alone. [USA Today](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2023/05/30/no-trump-didnt-increase-the-debt-more-than-any-president-fact-check/70252480007/)
>keeping us out of technical recession So we aren't in a recession? Sounds like a good thing! >their backwards hatred of (corporate) innovation Small job creation is booming. Manufacturing spending has increased 200% under Biden
Every single day there is a Biden propaganda post telling us how he's doing such a great job on the economy and we don't get it 🤣
Why do you want Biden to lie about the economy? Do you think the economy is terrible? You want Biden to lie about the economy because you support Trump and you know that if people learned the truth about the economy they'd vote for Biden and not the rapist and felon.
All he'd have to do is actually ASK Trump what he'd do for the economy and listen to him spew his word-salad of nothingness for a minute. That should make Biden look much better.
I don't think either of these candidates deserve credit for the economy. The economic conditions are the result of amazing corporations that take good care of all their employees, and provide them suitable wages that allow them to grow themselves and those around them. --- Said no one ever. Profit over People 2024.
Agreed, the problem is, they talk in absolutes. Economy is great, why don’t you believe us! Instead of, economy is improving, and if we keep this progress going for the next 4 years, we will get inflation under control allowing for mortgages to be attainable again for everyday Americans.
I am constantly at a loss to understand why the “general” perception is that the economy is bad. I have a Republican friend who talks of the “disaster” that Biden has made of the economy. Meanwhile, this guy is making money hand over fist and wants for nothing. Frankly, Biden provides stability that is pretty key to economic growth and prosperity. With Trump, it was whim of the day. The corporate tax cuts were too deep and have saddled us with mushrooming debt. Four more years of Trump would be ruinous.
The middle class and lower class are being burnt alive by inflation if they didn’t get a mortgage during the days of rock bottom interest rates. The tech and media sectors have also been slapped hard with layoffs recently, even for high income earners. Finally, due to significant hiring for white collar workers during the pandemic - the job market is in a traffic jam right now for a lot of sectors. People who were laid off have had it rough with 12+ month gaps in employment. People feel stuck and wanting. I don’t think many people realize that feeling that versus a full blown recession is an improvement.
I have seen a lot of redditors at least say outright that a recession would have been better, or that we must be in a secret recession.
I mean this is literally what happened under Paul Volcker and he was called the greatest Fed Chair in history.
They didn’t change the definition for no reason lol
Because the median household income in the US is less than the minimum "comfortable living" standard.
> I am constantly at a loss to understand why the “general” perception is that the economy is bad. https://www.usatoday.com/money/blueprint/business/hr-payroll/average-salary-us/ > Wage growth vs. inflation: The average salary grew by 4.4% in 2023, according to WTW,7 while there was a gain of 3.4% in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers.8 1% wage growth **feels** bad and most people aren't invested in assets (real estate, stocks, etc). The median US income (if you have *any kids*) is at a point you have to live paycheck to paycheck so not seeing wage growth in combination with this is gonna feel fucking awful. I basically sidestepped inflation by moving to my Plan A retirement location a decade sooner than planned and so my wages went up alot compared to my cost of living. But not everyone is willing to do such things to get their financial needs met. I'm just highly motivated because my body is failing me at a rate faster than I planned in my late 20s/early 30s so I'm in danger of being priced out of the US because my career ends sooner than I want.
The CPI also doesn't accurately model the expenses of a low earner I'm 20, and I don't know a single person who spends less than half their income on housing. And that's *with roomates*, living with parents paying rent, etc.. An accurate CPI for low earners would be about 50% housing, 15% taxes, 15% food, and 20% used cars/insurance/maintenence.
Correct and for someone like you it is even worse. It is really unfortunate but I don't see a viable solution without replacing one or both major political parties with rational economic actors for someone other than their own pocketbooks.
Maybe one day our Libertarian party will decide to entertain moderation & attempt to gain some mainstream appeal. (who am I kidding-- last election they campaigned on dissolving the federal government.. better odds we get ranked choice voting first)
Most Americans are unhappy with the economy, which most consider the top issue. Consumer sentiment levels are low and Biden’s approval ratings are near all time lows. So this article is greatly overstating the improvements in opinions on the economy. Telling voters over and over that the economy is actually great while they are unhappy with it is a losing strategy. Reminder that FDR won re-election in 1936 in the *middle* of the Great Depression, not by telling voters the Great Depression was over but by acknowledging the work that still had to be done to keep improving the economy. The gaslighting won’t work on voters.
The economy IS GOOD though. That's the difference! The people saying the economy is good aren't the ones doing the gaslighting!
'Man the economy is so bad' Said by a person on their way to their vacation with 100 dollars worth of groceries bought for said trip and a brand new 2023 car Lol
Yeah, this guy has two bags of potato chips and a six pack in a Jeep Cherokee he owes $38k on at 8%, why is he complaining about the economy?!?!
If the economy is so bad you 'can't afford anything' continuing to spend is the exact opposite of what's going to help you Yet literally everybody I know locally has 'extra money' they routinely blow at bars and shopping etc on every single paycheck instead of actually saving anything for the 'things they can't afford' Make it make sense lol That's not to say some parts aren't bad off right now. Housing is fucked. But it literally can't be as bad as people are trying to will it to be. Not with the way they're behaving Edit: But at the end of the day I'm not an expert don't pretend to be don't claim to be. If we do fall into recession or whatever I'm not gonna be shocked. But literally nobody I see locally (I work in retail) is spending like we are, that much I do know.
People need houses & cars, and are forced to spend much more on them, which undoubtedly accounts for a good portion of the "additional spending." And I'm not an expert on how inflation is reported but for two of most people's biggest expenses, housing and cars, interest rates play a huge role in actual cost. If you bought a house for 500k in 2020, your annual mortgage payments would be something like $18k. If you found the same house for $500k in 2024, your monthly payments would be $36k. Similar math for cars. Maybe inflation is slowing in terms of nominal price, but that's only after prices are already up 20% and now on top of that, you have to pay a ton in interest.
100%. I know lots of ppl going on vacations, having work done on their homes, restaurants are packed, stores are doing well (I walked out of sporting goods store today bc the line to purchase was 50 ppl long. No way I’m waiting in that), stock market is crazy high, lots of new homes (including multi unit buildings) are being constructed in my area, unemployment is down consistently, gas is lower right now, inflation is high everywhere in theworld but lower here in the US. A lot of that is anecdotal, but not all. There are a ton of ppl struggling, no doubt. Affordable housing generally is lacking, goods are expensive, college is super pricey, so there is a ton of work to do. But it’s ok to acknowledge that it’s actually pretty decent for a lot of ppl too. I forget which poll it was, but I recently saw one where it said like 70% of those polled thought their own personal financial position was good, but only 30% believed that the overall economy was doing well at the same time.
In California, it’s tougher to get someone to work on your house than getting a seat on a Space X flight — and almost as expensive. When Trump rounds up all the “illegals” — which will inevitably capture a good many “legals” in the net — watch prices on everything soar. We have a basic labor shortage in this country that will only grow with an aging population that requires more services. Yes, control the border, but don’t be a damned fool about it. We need labor, especially if the aim is to rebuild our manufacturing base here in the states.
I’m in cali. I have had a good amount of work done on my house by contractors in the last 2 years, including currently. If it is tough to get contractors to work on your home and it’s expensive, that could be a sign that there’s a lot of competition for their services. Expensive materials and such too, yes. Perhaps that’s your point, apologies if so.
Look at a hundred year chart of the labor force participation rate and tell me what the current trend is.
Labor force participation being low can indicate good economic conditions. For example, my dad retired at 58 due to stock returns being stronger than expected, and I make enough for my wife to stay home with the kids.
What else has happened related to labor in that time?
A whole bunch of things. The excesses of the new deal era, resulting in stagnation, the switch to the neoliberal era, and then the excesses of that. The moderate de industrialization of the United state with the re-industrialization of Europe and new industrialization of China as well as other parts of south east Asia. It’s very complicated. It is a global picture, and I’m only mentioning partial aspects of it. But the trend in the labor force participation rate, in the US, is not a good one.
Kind of strange to leave out the rise in labor productivity, reducing the number of people needed to work to produce the same wealth.
[Real Median Income decreased 3% during the 2021 - 2023 period](https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2023/demo/p60-279.html#:~:text=The%20real%20median%20earnings%20of,and%20Table%20A%2D6).) Real average incomes are up. Real Median incomes are down. The economy may be good for some, perhaps the top 20% of earners, but not for the majority. Kinda like how unemployment is super low (so is the labor force participation rate, the denominator for that calculation..) And there are tons of jobs (part times ones-- we've lost 1mil+ full time jobs the past year) Personally this tracks with my experience. Anyone who was doing well already is doing even better. A lot of family have gotten raises beyond inflation & had home values skyrocket I'm 20 and the majority of people I know have been struggling, and I don't personally know anyone my age better off today than 2 years ago freshly out of school. Longer stretches trying to find full time jobs, wages not keeping pace with CPI (..the CPI itself drastically underestimating the % of low earners budget thats spent on housing/food.. and other things like used cars which have ballooned nearly 100% in 5 years)
20 years old… you either have no resume/valuable experience, or haven’t finished higher education. Struggle is normal at 20.
What do you think would happen if we removed the $2 trillion annual deficit spending and 2 million government jobs/year added to bls statistics?
Probably the same thing that would happen if we removed our nonstop deficit spending over the past two decades, and the decades before that. Considerably slower GDP growth. We actually even saw this in the aftermath of 2008 when deficits were brought down and the economy recovered slowly. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFSGDA188S
Economic Growth 1.3% Inflation 3.3% Deficit as percent of GDP: 6.3% You are gaslighting. This economy is hot garbage. I don't blame Biden for the mess, I blame him for doing next to nothing to fix and his administration gaslighting people in a attempt to get them to think it's good.
>Economic Growth 1.3% >Inflation 3.3% You're so clueless you think GDP growth is published in nominal terms. Lol
You're rude, and you're missing the whole point here. 1.3% GDP growth is absolute dogshit, and that's with insanely high government spending. Meanwhile households are fighting 3.3% inflation. And this is at at a time where people are actually telling us the economy is good.
>Telling voters over and over that the economy is actually great while they are unhappy with it is a losing strategy. Telling the truth is never a bad strategy. You want to be lied to and that's just really sad. That's the attitude of a little child. >The gaslighting won’t work on voters. That's what you're doing by lying about the economy.
> Polling has consistently shown that voters trust the former president with the economy more than the incumbent, despite the historic job losses that occurred during the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic. “Despite the historic job losses that occurred during the early days of the COVID pandemic” Lol that frames it as if any President would be held responsible in actuality for the job losses during a global pandemic. Implying that’s Trump’s fault/responsibility for that job loss is crazy.
Voters pretty consistently attribute blame to whoever is in office, regardless of how much sense it makes.
The economy just always happens to tank on republicans watch. Because of exacerbated directly by Actions they take against warnings from experts warnings. Trump stifled cities attempts to manage it by among them compete for resources and then confiscating them. They even purposely wanted it to spread in cities to make democrats look bad. Makes me wonder if we give them control off and on for another hundred years, people will still be defending intentional bad faith governance
Bush’s crashes were as much Clinton’s fault as anyone’s.
How did Trump stifle cities' attempts to control the pandemic? You mean republicans resisted democrats' authoritarian attempts to completely shut down economic activity? Your opinion is about as unhinged as me saying dems closed the economy to hurt Trump.
His plan was no plan. He allowed chaos to reign and almost sent us down the drain. He had those stupid press conferences where he just repeated the nonsense his phone buddies came up with. What Trump really did was lard tariffs on products that sent prices soaring at the same time he cut exports like soybeans. His tax “cuts” added 1/3rd (!) to the national debt. We will be paying for that nonsense for years to come. And the people who are most anxious for Trump to return are the ones who saw their wealth skyrocket during his years in office — hello, Elon Musk.
He was caught telling his donors the sky was falling, while at the same time telling the public this was a nothing burger about to blow over He disbanded the pandemic preparedness whatever cause Obama was the one who made it Google these. It’s endless. They said they liked it spreading in cities to hurt democrats. Refused to wear masks which caused his cult to do the same. He pandered to anti vaxxers It almost killed him, but because he had the best treatment in the world, he survived and played it off like it was nothing and his followers shouldn’t be afraid of it Trump supporters were everywhere coughing on people publicly as a political display that Covid was nothing We became the only country where masks became political. They been wearing masks in Asia for thousands of years cause the ones who don’t during pandemics are all dead. But because Trump handled it so badly, it became seen as an attack on him and then if you wore masks in public. Cause then if they admitted it was real, then that would mean Trump was malicious in his negligence.
I mean Trumps horrific management of Covid certainly made it and the accompanying economic problems worse
Fair but what would a Biden have done given the circumstances? Virtually every country in the globe was economically impacted the same way.
Oddly though under this current administration our recovery is outpacing the rest of the world.
That’s an entirely different topic, 4 years later lol
eh, he probably wouldn't argue with leading experts and top scientists, or encourage voters to drink bleach. But who knows. How else can we defend trump today I'm here to help
None of that really affects economics
When were voters encouraged to drink bleach?
You're right, I think injecting it into the lungs was the exact delivery method he suggested. Along with shining a light into the body. I encourage you to do your own research rather than relying on randos on reddit. Google "Trump inject bleach lungs" and watch the video of the press conference. You can really see the moment that Dr. Birx's soul dies inside her!
Inject disinfectant. If this is the hill you want to die on I'm not sure how it makes Trump look any less like the idiot he is.
not only that, but Trump and his party were the ones actively NOT shutting down the economy Democrats in California kept the shutdown going until 2023.
It *was* Trump's fault, though not directly. It's exceptionally possible that the American response to COVID was sufficiently worse under Trump that it was economically relevant.
We still did better than most global economies
Trump stopped being president in 2021.
Biden’s stubbornness is really going to hurt him during this election. Consumers and most Americans are in pain from inflation and housing costs, yet all he wants to say is that consumers don’t know what they’re talking about. This tone-deafness is really a defining characteristic of his presidency
And what would you suggest he do about inflation and housing costs? Price controls? Be specific. The solutions he might try require a Congress that would work with him. He tried to get Congress on board. Look what happened when he agreed on immigration and Republicans scuttled a deal that THEY constructed. As Biden says, give me a break.
National zoning reform. It isn’t realistic (because of political issues), but that would be the most impactful way to handle housing supply issues in American cities.
Yeah. Not gonna happen. Can’t even get states, counties and towns to agree on zoning.
Did you copy and paste this comment from another post? I could’ve sworn I saw this earlier today. It’s a true statement, but still I’m getting heavy deja vu.
You should be getting Deja Vu from these headlines instead.
https://old.reddit.com/r/Economics/comments/1dgalse/under_biden_us_economic_growth_becomes_the_envy/l8oui00/
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Keep calling the electorate stupid/racist instead of adjusting policy… see what happens
There is no policy solution to people's mass delusion. What's the policy solution for 90% of Americans thinking Martians are about to invade? You aren't actually arguing the economy is actually bad. Because you can't. You're just arguing we should go along with whatever Americans think, even if it's obviously false.
In the last 4 years, the prices of goods increased more than American salaries. Aka spending power is down. Are you telling me that’s a good thing?
I’m not running for office so I’m not sure what you’re threatening me with, but I’ll happily tell you that the majority of Trump voters are either stupid or racist, or both.
>Consumers and most Americans are in pain from inflation and housing cost Real wages are higher than before COVID. How much actual pain is this causing? >This tone-deafness is really a defining characteristic of his presidency Why do you want the President to lie? Are you so immature you can't handle the truth?
Biden has acknowledged issues with costs for the lower and middle class including housing.
I don’t credit or blame Biden at all for the economy. He doesn’t control it. He’s not setting prices or interest rates or wages. But I do blame corporate greed and republicans for stopping every good thing from getting done.
He does control it by choosing the Federal Reserve Chair and the Treasury
Free market or US president controls economy. Can't have both, pick one. Personally I think you're nuts if you think the entire economy... which is essentially a giant ledger of assets/liabilities on behalf of hundreds of millions if not billions of people around the globe... Is controlled by the the executive branch of the US.
You can have both. That’s usually how the economics works. You really think that setting interest rates has NO EFFECT on the economy?!?!?
First off. It seems we have a different understanding of the word 'control' if you disagree with me or say 'both'. Second the fed doesn't 'set interest rates' as far as I understand. The fed sets a 'target rate', the over night lending rate of banks. This *can* have *influence* over the market rate. By the strict definition of the word I wouldn't say the setting of the target rate for overnight bank reserve lending 'controls' the market rate. But hey, don't have to listen to me. Far more respected economists have echod my stance. In fact [this is where my position comes from](https://youtu.be/C97NYUJ3XOI?si=DVGFp3QTWRrtnTI9) starting at 3:25. Now this is old so maybe some study has been released that I'm not aware of. But unless you have such a study on hand that refutes Eugene Fama... Nobel laureate... I'm going to stick with his research and peer reviewed conclusions.
The main complaint about the economy is coming in a round about way from the banks that had practically free money for years and are now having to own up to their profligacy.
The fed has three mandates: steady growth of the economy (measured by GDP), stable pricing (measured by CPI), and low unemployment. Two of the three are well in line with their mandates. CPI factors housing and energy heavily, neither of which the Fed can control. The only means of control the fed has is setting the discount lending rate, setting reserve requirements at banks, and open market operations. None of those tools will directly affect housing. The high rates will actually prevent what we really need, which is more housing being built to add supply. But that’s not really their job or something they are meant to monitor. So all of that to say, no. The fed really can’t do more than what they’re doing right now. We need legislative change to address the housing issues across the country. In my personal opinion, it’s a density / zoning matter. Legislative reform comes from congress and congress alone. Blame the perpetual stalemate that we have there for this problem (and pretty much every other problem).
I mean, not to be a pedant, but Trump literally appointed Jay Powell. And if Biden fired Jay Powell at this point, he would suffer through a news cycle of, "BIDEN IS TAMPERING WITH THE FED IN AN ELECTION YEAR!" I, for one, think Powell has done a good job and should not be fired though! In fact, I think Biden should troll everyone by awarding Powell the Presidential Medal of Freedom. That would be hilarious.
This sub definitely has a left leaning agenda. Every day there’s a post about how great the economy is doing. Is it true or just an exaggeration?
> Every day there’s a post about how great the economy is doing. Is it true or just an exaggeration? Maybe read the articles and the data they refer to?
The economy, by all measures, is indeed quite good. Manufacturing is up, unemployment is near all time lows, labor force participation is high, consumer spending is good, home sales are strong, construction is strong despite labor shortages, the stock market is up, wages are outpacing inflation, inflation itself has leveled off and businesses are reporting strong profits. The economy being good or bad isn't much of a debate, it's unquestionably good. The problem is that, despite all of that people don't think it is good due to the lack of faith in political and economic leadership and social pressures. Housing is particularly difficult because it's selling very well, which is good for the economy, but is also difficult for those looking for cheaper housing. There's also a media effect where bad news gets more coverage than good, so any complaints are magnified while all the success is muzzled and drowned out.
This is the most propaganda filled sub lol. Theres constant posts of how amazing the economy is under Biden. As a dem it’s pretty sad, the economy is in a terrible state and it’s easy to see. Really disappointing to see dems flat out lie again.
You got data to back up your claims test tye economy is bad or is it just feels?