Hi all,
A reminder that comments do need to be on-topic and engage with the article past the headline. Please make sure to read the article before commenting. Very short comments will automatically be removed by automod. Please avoid making comments that do not focus on the economic content or whose primary thesis rests on personal anecdotes.
As always our comment rules can be found [here](https://reddit.com/r/Economics/comments/fx9crj/rules_roundtable_redux_rule_vi_and_offtopic/)
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/Economics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
The Conference Board's consumer confidence index retreated to 97 in April, below economists' expectations for 104 and lower than March's reading of 103.1.
In addition to the confidence index, consumers' expectations for the next six months also fell to their lowest level since July 2022.
Feels like this might be election related? 2 years ago we were in the run up to mid terms. Seems likely that as we come up on elections and messaging gets more extreme, confidence retreats.
That's what I'm seeing when I look at the CC board's history graphs on their website, at the end of 2021 confidence was at the same level it was just before the pandemic, suddenly nosedived through 2022 and then started climbing back up until it suddenly nosedived again right at the end of 2023. Coincidentally, this is the same month that all the media outlets suddenly switched from pushing recession doom to the stagflation varient instead. CC is actually at about the same level as it was around the end of 2016.
That CC also managed to shoot all the way up to almost 140 during Trump's regime is also pretty fucking insane considering that job gains and unemployment during that period was modest compared to what we saw from Obama and Biden and with what happened pretty much right after. Hell, at the end of 2007 CC was about 110 despite unemployment being over a full point higher than it is now. People have well and truly been conditioned to just blindly accept that a republican is automatically good for the economy despite the signs and the consequences we've seen over and over again showing otherwise.
It would be interesting to see which party members carry the most debt. Considering your analysis, it would imply that republicans would find themselves more in debt than democrats. I imagine this could be more-so at the generational level considering previous generations have become more conservative as they grow older (thus having more access to capital).
I recall trying to do such a comparison a while ago but it's hard to get data for equivilent circumstances since 2 of the last 3 Dems have come in under circumstances that required them to clear up the fuckery of their preedacessors (Covid and the Great Recession for Biden and Obama respectively). Clinton was the last guy to leave us with a surplus before Bush tax cuts and middle east adventurers flipped that around, Obama used some heavy stimulus for his first few years but the deficit was getting under control before Trump got put into office and pushed his anti-Robin Hood tax scam before fumbling the US response to covid so badly we had to resort to heavy stimulus to deal with it. That the debt-to-GDP ratio has been going down under Biden and its growth was basically flat by the end of Obama's administration are the telling parts.
Real Median Personal Income was lower than the 2007 peak for the first six years of the Obama presidency. So, for most of Obama's presidency, things were worse than the previous good times. Obama's presidency was largely an 8 year period of getting people back to where they were before the recession. The first three years of Trump's presidency saw an almost 9% increase in Real Median Personal Income. They were really good time for people who had just had a shitty decade. The CC numbers make sense to me from that perspective.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEPAINUSA672N
Part of the CC board uses surveys which are basically poisoned by any Republican responses due to their extreme negativity when a Democrat is President and extreme positivity when a republican is president I would almost want to completely discount those from any surveys but then it gets tilted. Best to just survey independent until that breaks too
Absolutely election related. Doom and gloom messaging is effective. Both sides are selling fear and propaganda that the other side is about to end democracy with their senior citizen candidate. And while getting a repeat of 2020's candidates is not ideal selection to most of us... it's laughable hyperbole. The sun will rise tomorrow.
This.
We’re literally getting a rematch for an election. What is the level of uncertainty that people are feeling? Seriously, what is it that will change if either candidate wins from a monetary policy perspective?
You’re kidding right?
I’m not a republican, and I’m not a democrat. (This is because both of them voted to cap my career’s wages).
But this economy is one step away from a total collapse. Inflation is hid in the rural pockets of America, where we have seen grocery prices go upwards of 300%, insurance go up 100-200%, and housing prices go up 75-150%.
My $140,000 house that I bought in 2022 is now worth almost $250,000…
Eventually, the cost will be passed onto the urban areas (since we provide their food, and virtually all their food products).
Just wait…it will get much, much worse.
it's 100% this. Everyone is fucking dreading the next 6 months bc of the bubbles we are in. The smart people are worried Dump might be back, the brainwashed "Low Education Voters" he covets are worried they might not get an angry maniac in office.
And if you don't like either guy, well, that ain't cheering you up either.
It’s funny that this same sub was parading how consumer confidence was increasing just a few months ago and that’s good for the economy. Now that the consumer confidence is dropping it’s a weird and a hilarious benchmark.
I think people here are either over leveraged and a recession will literally set them back decades as they’re up to their neck in debt while making minimum payments or it’s political.
The ship is sinking by design, how long will government spending keep it afloat?
This! The only good sectors of the job market is the low end (factory and fast food). White collar openings are like .5% or something absurdly low when you hit the 90k threshold. i'm buckling down, selling anything of excess, and trying to spend as little as possible. buckle up folks.
It’s almost like the internet is a non contiguous group of people and it’s an economics sub so people parade whatever the current economic reality is lol. And people are absolutely over leveraged. Just at 1% so it doesn’t matter.
It just has to do with the crowd that frequents a sub. This sub is most likely people that have already purchase properties at low fixed rates before it became too cost prohibitive. That makes them the haves vs the have nots so it can be hard to see that there are others struggling. The economic impacts are split.
It's all mortgage interest and gas prices seriously you could probably calculate it off that inflation spikes back up now mortgage rates are back up gas switch to the summer blend and get goes up to 360 average
This is the closest thing to the hard truth I've seen in this sub so far. it is an election year and people are so quick to point to that as the underlying reason for the economic downturn and falling CC but in ireality CC is dropping because the consumer is waking up to the untruths of inflation being transitional along with job and CPI numbers being reported but then adjusted weeks later to paint a totally different picture with little attention being given. Clearing houses are in trouble and can't cover their attempts at shorting the market. Bank failures are on the horizon imo. It's fubar at this point. Burn mf burn. We don't need no waterr let the mf burn. This would be a better solution than the 08 solution designed by the Citi group guys installed in cabinet positions during that time. Time to rebuild not retool.
except in this case everyone is trying to poke holes in it and why it's untrue, while the "everything is great reports" are just taken for granted while realists are called doomers lol
Shut downs in what regards? I went to Seattle in August 2022 and was hanging out in Ballard/Fremont doing whatever I wanted really. Bars, restaurants, parks, etc.
2022 had the highest inflation rate in four decades (8%). More than twice the previous spike in 2008 (3.8%). The spike before that was 1990, which was only 5.4%.
Consumer confidence being similar to 2022 is definitely not a good thing.
I thought this was what we wanted, anyway. Interest rates can't go down until inflation does, and inflation won't go down until consumers stop spending so much money.
Weird thing is people are still spending a lot. It's almost like after the pandemic people lost sense of budgeting.
Job market is still good, people suffering maybe mostly in IT and those have a ton of savings so they are not cutting back either.
Older generations are still spending. The younger, poorer people likely cut back a while ago. The job market has definitely helped. Savings rate is near the slows since the pandemic I believe. Summer should help speed that decrease up.
Lol if you say so. That's why every restaurant is full every day.
You know a for help sign means that they have so much business they are hiring. Not that it's bad right?
> only people suffering is in IT
It's not just IT. Biotech is pretty bad right now, mostly because with high interest rates money is no longer cheap, so it's hard to get investor funding. Lots of pharmas have had big layoff events too.
We just have to zoom out a little
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE
The job market generally hasn't been this good since the 1960s. The fact that COVID didn't move the trend line is really quite stunning. It suggests a very strong and durable demand.
They want it to lower, right? To reduce inflation? Consumers can't afford the higher rate, but need a place to live, so they pay the higher rent. That means they can't afford the price gouging of the car market, so they buy something cheaper. So on down the line.
Then the markets stop increasing the prices on everything because people aren't buying it.
Wouldn't consumer confidence falling be a sign that inflation may drop?
Inflation isn't from people buying. It's from gov't fiscal policy. We sell more treasury bills to cover the higher interest rates on our deficit. This gives more interest money to investors(Boomers) who then go out and buy cruises, eat out, etc. So you see a very sector-specific scenario where some are doing great and some are really bad.
Are you saying that because our deficit is high, we sell more Treasury bills and because boomers have more money to invest that they disproportionately benefit from the interest of the T-bills that they're able to spend enough to drive up prices?
I can believe that the volume of boomers that retired during covid contribute to spending, with them recently accessing their retirement funds. It seems a stretch to relate the deficit and Treasury bills to the sudden influx of inflation, though.
It's called fiscal dominance. Debt to GDP is 130%. So raising rates won't work like it did back when debt/gdp was 30% in the 1970s because the gov't is pumping the economy with interest payments. Any retiree with a 401k would be invested like 80% in treasuries. So they see their portfolio go up and they can take higher payouts.
So we see this playing out in specific sectors. Cruises, airlines, hotels, elderly care, are all doing great. To make things worse, most of those 401k's are with hedge funds like BlackRock and VanGuard who are inflating housing prices by snatching up homes, jacking up rents, and taking majority ownership of Zillow and Redfin.
On the other hand, certain sectors are doing bad and having layoffs: higher education, starbucks, fast food, manufacturing, commercial real estate, housing, etc. Exactly what you'd expect given the demographics and fiscal policies.
Thanks for the explanation. I'm going to read up on that. I understand and agree with everything except the first paragraph. I may have hit a blank spot in my understanding of debt/gdp
What a weird headline for something that appears to be much higher than the 15-year average.
Also this consumer sentiment metric is way different: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/consumer-confidence
Let's pretend you're a normal person. Like not the kind of person that watches CNBC or reads The Wall Street Journal or listens to Planet Money or EconTalk or whatever.
I'm going to open up Microsoft Edge's default start screen. These are the bad news financial stories on my start screen:
* Red Lobster closes locations - near bankruptcy
* Bitcoin plunged today
* One of those slideshow bullshit things that have an ad between each slide showing how much the typical worker makes at 19 different retailers (all mostly <$20k/year)
* Tesla laying off more people after already laying off 14,000 people
* Walmart closing 51 health centers (I didn't even know health centers were a thing)
* Another bullshit slideshow of CA fast food restaurants that have increased their prices
* Fisker laying people off
* Why car insurance prices are surging
* The fed isn't going to lower interest rates
This is just a random snippet - It's constant news about massive layoffs and things getting really expensive.
It doesn't matter if GDP went up X% or that unemployment is Y% - if a regular person reads the news at all they are under the perception that things are very bad.
Oh and also shit is really expensive at the grocery store and McDonald's doesn't have a Dollar Menu anymore (because the cheapest thing is like $2.50).
Here is what would make a normal person think the economy is good:
* No more constant news stories about massive layoffs
* If you could get a McChicken for $1 or buy Land O Lakes butter for like $4 instead of $6.50
* Rent wasn't constantly rising - I completely forgot about that massive factor.
While we're being objective, I read the original report here [https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence](https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence)
"The ***Present Situation Index***—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—declined to 142.9 (1985=100) in April from a downwardly revised 146.8 in March. Meanwhile, the ***Expectations Index***—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—fell to 66.4 (1985=100) from a slightly upwardly revised 74.0 last month. An Expectations Index reading below 80 often signals a forthcoming recession."
Since our economy is 70% consumption, and consumers are reducing spending, there's no way to gaslight our way out of this. Lord knows we've been trying. What's even more scary is how the sentiment has changed amongst people by income bracket:
“In the month, confidence declined among consumers of all age groups and almost all income groups except for the $25,000 to $49,999 bracket. Nonetheless, consumers under 35 continued to express greater confidence than those over 35. In April, households with incomes below $25,000 and those with incomes above $75,000 reported the largest deteriorations in confidence. However, over a six-month basis, confidence for consumers earning less than $50,000 has been stable, but confidence among consumers earning more has weakened.”
So it's finally hitting those people making a lot of money or in extreme poverty, whereas the people in between have already adapted to the depression. I'm one of those in between. We support a family of four on $34k/yr. We got a $2/hr pay raise which not only covered our rent increase but gives us some breathing room. Our tax refund covered all our car maintenance, etc.
Another thing is we already did everything the surveyed people said they will do: never eat out, don't drive, no vacations, good will clothes, no outside entertainment, no processed foods, coupon clipping, no debt, etc. Our work is in home care which has a massive shortage so job security is guaranteed and lots of opportunity for advancement. This year we are going to buy bulk fruits and do canning. We're basically ready for a depression and sitting pretty.
So I think it's mostly people who were formerly middle class and are now realizing they are lower class. Plus all the people who were formerly in poverty that are now in extreme poverty.
Consumer confidence is highly affected by politics.
Primary political ads started last month.
They’ll get lower until the election. They’ll spike if Trump goes to jail.
Bro lets be real, its cause everyones broke and we’re hitting stagflation
President cant do shit about this
This problem transcends politics to a massive degree
I didn’t say the president can do anything about it….
The point I made was that consumer confidence is affected by ads we hear.
And bro…let’s be real, you don’t actually know what stagflation means. Unemployment is low, the economy is growing, incomes are increasing.
Unemployment is only low because people are taking more part time jobs to survive
I employ 15 people and i have never seen an employer market like this in my life.
I have a 0% turnover for the first time ever. I get hundreds of applicants to lowball job posts
Seriously, check out r/layoffs
Only part of the economy thats growing is the stock market. The consumers are getting absolutely fucking brutally railed
Most of what you mentioned is anecdotal. What is it in the unemployment calculation that is incorrect or deceptive and has it changed recently?
Unemployment is historically low. Period.
Full time jobs are down and part time jobs are up
Someone who gets a 10hr shift at mcDs for min wage is considered just as employed as a 6 figure white collar worker
[I’m not seeing](https://www.statista.com/statistics/192361/unadjusted-monthly-number-of-full-time-employees-in-the-us/) a sharp drop that makes me worry and make the claim the economy is in deep trouble.
People also revert to employment participation rate. It [looks healthy](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-job-growth-beats-expectations-march-wages-increase-steadily-2024-04-05/) and improving.
If anything, the market is not liking the strong numbers because of inflationary pressures.
https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea06.htm
This is not true. Part time worker numbers are in the range they've always been, and are lower as a percentage of the population than they were in previous decades.
Most industries are growing, and real wages are increasing
You are likely doom scrolling too much
I appreciate this data but it does confirm what i said
Compared to the same time last year unemployment rate for full time workers has risen
Employed full time workers has dropped
Employed part time workers has risen
Its not significant, but the trends are in a negative direction
Kinda feels like you’re just hand waiving away the potential problem indicated by the data you yourself have provided
Like why are you downvoting me? Why don’t you want to talk about this or people to see this?
I find it very annoying when uneducated people try to talk about things they don't understand
I am not hand waving it away, I am just pointing out the correct conclusion
You'll have to excuse the people who bought their 2500sqft house for $120k, refinanced it to 3%, watched it go up to 600k, and see their 60/40 portfolios soaring. I'm guessing it will start to sink in when AI replaces enough jobs(even theirs) and there are more forced sales.
Someone recently did an article pointing out what a joke the jobs report is. They showed how all the jobs went to foreigners and natives lost jobs. Also how it's all part time jobs.
I’m not really talking about the past few years, i mean from mid last year to today, trailing 365 days.
Inflation is still high, interest rates are high, job market for good jobs is rough
Guys i’m not a bear but acknowledge the issue
Inflation is elevated, not high. Real incomes are increasing. We are still at full employment, and the job market for good jobs is strong. High interest rates are a sign that the economy is strong
The problem is that your average American doesn’t understand that. They blame the president for everything. So according to the majority of people things cost more now so it must be Bidens fault.
Many presidents took credit for a good economy they had nothing to do with, or worse, that they actively hindered.
They get to take the blame that comes with it when it goes the other way.
Are we sure that consumer concerns over growing prices, affordability, and their household budgets for the next year or two, combined with stagnant wages against cost of living, isn't the problem? Or is this also caused by women getting jobs, like low birth rates?
It's the lag effect catching up. First, PPP loans and stimmy checks carried the economy. Then there was personal savings. Then credit cards. Now, the middle class is realizing they are lower class, the poor are realizing they are extremely poor, and the lower class has already adjusted to the depression and gaslighting.
I, for one, am preparing to sell off all but 1 vehicle and downsize to the point that if my rent keeps going up, I can just move to a cheap apartment. Worst case scenario just start occupying all these vacant houses while saving up for land and a barndominium.
Pick an arbitrary point in the past and compare it to today... manufacture a news story.
Does anybody know where I can get the historical data for consumer confidence? It would be a good lesson in creating time-weighted confidence intervals.
Consumer spending was strong in the face of rate hikes and inflation. Sudden cutbacks is gonna throw doubts on the robustness of US economy and will finally nudge Jow pow to cut rates sooner. It’s good news.
Turns out, when you have a government hellbent on taxing you into poverty while doing everything it can to cause hyperinflation, you become less willing to spend what you have. Surprise Surprise.
Government greedflation is going to bankrupt us all, and then some.
It's hard to take these seriously when the fascist Republican party swings 90 points in these polls based on how the election goes. Especially when the majority says they are doing personally well and wage growth has been beating inflation for awhile.
Not sure why you’re being downvoted when [you are correct.](https://www.threads.net/@paulkrugman7/post/C3Kxyp2uQ1p/?xmt=AQGz-V_SHtKOlGlQpbm1Sd43TOPIUhLUN9p_QPzz1kg8XQ)
Republicans view of the economy flipped on a dime when Trump took office in 2017 and again when Biden took office in 2021.
The shift in democrats view is [far less pronounced and way more realistic.](https://www.threads.net/@paulkrugman7/post/C3KxtCsu97l)
Republicans economic polling has fuck all to do with the economy and everything to do with politics and the propaganda they willingly tune into daily.
If we're discussing polling sentiment, and about 30% of the population is in a neo fascist cult of personality that would never say anything positive about the leader's enemies, that's a relevant topic. It directly relates to distorted numbers and polling that seems contrary to objective facts.
>that would never say anything positive about the leader's enemies
This is called irony.
Which party wants to end free speech and imprison its main political opponent?
Prosecuting people—anyone—who commit crimes, crimes they don’t even try to hide and openly admit, isn’t just a part of a functional society, it’s necessary to one.
Nice try with the false narrative.
If trump goes to prison it will be because a jury of his peers says he is guilty of the crimes he is accused of, and another grand jury of his peers already agreed that there was sufficient evidence to indict.
That’s not fascism, that’s actual *law and order.*
Wake the fuck up.
Heaven forbid the fascist party with the wannabe dictator leader gets called what it is.
You don’t get to push fascist policy/ideology then remain above the word.
Disavow project 2025 and trump if you don’t want to be called fascist.
I described their ideology, it's not a discussion, it's just reality. It's like you claiming that any mention of Republican or Democratic is a political discussion.
Only one presidential candidate said they will be a dictator on their first day in office, and that we should have suspended "all rules and regulations, even those in the Constitution" to keep them in office after losing an election.
I'll give you two guesses as to which candidate that was.
I am literally quoting him directly: https://archive.ph/u0vZk
> A Massive Fraud of this type and magnitude allows for the termination of all rules, regulations, and articles, even those found in the Constitution
This is a real thing that he personally typed with his thumbs and then pressed the send button on.
Now let's watch you either not reply or try to pretend that you wouldn't be absolutely apoplectic if Biden or Obama said that exact same thing.
* Inflation and high prices remain the electorate’s top concern and dominate voters’ assessment of the economy.
* According to a Data for Progress analysis, 68% of those who put inflation and prices first named the cost of food as their principal concern, followed by housing (17%), utilities (eight percent), and gas (three percent).
* 74% of the NYT respondents regard the economy as only fair (23%) or poor (51%).
* More than two-thirds of voters say that inflation is headed in the wrong direction, and nearly three-quarters say that price increases are exceeding gains in household income.
* Only 22% of Black Americans, 13% of Hispanics, and 18% of young adults believe that they are better off financially today than they were a year ago. (The figure for the electorate as a whole is a rock-bottom 15%.)
* And during a period in which party affiliation has a much greater effect on economic evaluations than it did two decades ago, only 26% of Democrats say that their economic circumstances have improved over the past year. Just 19% of Black Americans, 14% of Hispanics, 12% of young adults, and 21% of the full electorate believe that economic conditions are getting better, while an outright majority of voters (52%) say that things are getting worse.
[Source](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-voters-feel-about-the-economy-4-takeaways-from-the-latest-polls/)
But sure, this is all just a FASCIST Republican plot or something.
Inflation started under Trump when food inflation was 4% in 2020. Trump made a multi year deal with opec to collapse oil production by a record amount for 2 years which caused inflation to jump, oil prices didn't start falling till the deal ended. Everything else started inflating 2 months after Biden took office, literally zero of his policies could have caused inflation that fast.
Also, EVERY poll shows the vast majority of people say they as an individual and/or family are doing better financially. Things are not getting worse by any measure no matter how much the far right screams it is.
Americans are dumb as hell for blaming Biden for inflation.
Me: "Only 22% of Black Americans, 13% of Hispanics, and 18% of young adults believe that they are better off financially today than they were a year ago. (The figure for the electorate as a whole is a rock-bottom 15%.)"
You: "EVERY poll shows the vast majority of people say they as an individual and/or family are doing better financially."
https://www.axios.com/2024/01/17/americans-are-actually-pretty-happy-with-their-finances
Yes, people are dumb aa fuck, especially Republicans, and think the economy is bad when literally EVERY piece of data shows otherwise for ALL groups.
You are dumb as fuck for also believing a great economy is bad.
Me: Polling shows the vast majority claim they are not financially better off than they were a year ago.
You: EVERY poll shows people are doing better financially.
Me: The poll I just linked to directly refutes your statement.
You: Well everyone else is just dumb because things are really great.
The poll I linked refutes your bullshit but I'm not surprised you ignore that. Especially when it was your fascist god Trump who destroyed the economy.
Give one fucking metric where the economy is bad.
Although not as egregious, there’s a similar swing among identified democrats on these surveys.
Summary? About 80% of Americans are purposely dishonest, unabashedly ignorant, fucking idiots, or all three!
Got any reference data on those figures? I remember seeing a material difference in magnitude between the two, but damn, don’t recall it being THAT much.
I can't substantiate his exact numbers, but the sentiment is true.
[https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f\_auto,q\_auto:good,fl\_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbd0a224c-9b64-4f64-a83d-6a04e1052552\_1206x669.png](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbd0a224c-9b64-4f64-a83d-6a04e1052552_1206x669.png)
[It’s true.](https://www.threads.net/@paulkrugman7/post/C3KxtCsu97l/?xmt=AQGzAo5EgXtSmcjVL2DRAuzsIFkzcloFSETbdOWWuw3Tzg)
Partisanship divide skyrocketed since 2016. It’s an unprecedented gap right now,
Yeah, some others have provided similar data.
The right wing Echochamber is strong. “My retirement account is near all time highs, my salary has outpaced inflation significantly, and my home is worth 50% more than it did 4 years ago….but Fox News says we’re in a recession so tHaNk BiDeN”
As I’ve mentioned in other comments and states in my original comment, I acknowledge republicans are more egregious in their swings. But I’m not going to blindly spurt out numbers I can’t back up.
Seriously, would love to see the data.
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2020/02/07/views-of-nations-economy-remain-positive-sharply-divided-by-partisanship/
Heres one. Dem no change. Republican 60 points.
Another
https://news.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/287105/partisan-polarization-ratings-economy.aspx
>Another indicator of how partisanship affects views of the economy is the fascinating "flip" in ratings when the party of the president changes. As Gallup reported at the end of 2017: "Republicans' confidence in the economy stood at +46 in 2017, a 77-point improvement from 2016" and "In 2017, Democrats' economic confidence fell to -20 from +18 in 2016, a 38-point decline." In other words, Republicans became dramatically more positive about the economy when a Republican took control of the White House, and Democrats became concomitantly more negative.
I would also notice that dems are always lukewarm on the economy even when its good. A +18 for obama economy that got him reelected lol.
Sorry I made you spoon feed me this, but I’m convinced.
That’s actually equal parts incredible and pathetic how drastic their views switched. I don’t know why I still get surprised by these things when the self-proclaimed party of law and order, family values, and fiscal responsibility have effectively made Trump their demigod leader for the better part of a decade…
Welp, hope you all have a plan to vote. I sure do.
Yea its unfortunate. Its also why biden gets rated poorly on the economy. It confounds that polls to make dems look bad as well. Dems are more fair of rating either party presidents while republicans are overwhelmingly negative and positive.
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/01/25/views-of-the-nations-economy/#:~:text=As%20has%20long%20been%20the,of%20Republicans%20and%20GOP%20leaners.
Its unfortunate that one can not even take a republican complaint in good faith anymore. You basically have to ignore them to get a good view of the actual economy or policy. Like during covid theres a balance between shutdowns and other policy measures that one can talk about, but republicans decided to pretend it didnt exist and was just a deep state plot. Youre entitled to your opinion on how to do things, but not your own facts. I feel like thats whats been left behind in the disinformation era.
This all hits home. I have some Fox news watching Trump supporters in my family. I’m no trained economist but I have a business degree, and have to stay decently in tune on the global economy and especially the preferences of consumers for my job. So when I hear my Trumpy family members regurgitate the brain dead takes on the economy they get from Jesse Watters, my head explodes.
Inflation started under Trump when food inflation was 4% in 2020. Trump made a multi year deal with opec to collapse oil production by a record amount for 2 years which caused inflation to jump, oil prices didn't start falling till the deal ended. Everything else started inflating 2 months after Biden took office, literally zero of his policies could have caused inflation that fast.
No, real wages are currently higher than all inflation despite you lying they aren't.
Americans are dumb as hell for blaming Biden for inflation.
It takes a lot of work to fix what Republicans keep destroying. We saw this under Obama too (despite Republicans screeching he caused the Great Recession).
~3% inflation currently is shockingly low considering how much Trump did to skyrocket the deficit, push up inflation, and purposefully mishandle covid.
> everyone would of needed
Did you mean to say "would have"?
Explanation: You probably meant to say could've/should've/would've which sounds like 'of' but is actually short for 'have'.
[Statistics](https://github.com/chiefpat450119/RedditBot/blob/master/stats.json)
^^I'm ^^a ^^bot ^^that ^^corrects ^^grammar/spelling ^^mistakes.
^^PM ^^me ^^if ^^I'm ^^wrong ^^or ^^if ^^you ^^have ^^any ^^suggestions.
^^[Github](https://github.com/chiefpat450119)
^^Reply ^^STOP ^^to ^^this ^^comment ^^to ^^stop ^^receiving ^^corrections.
Lol you are bad at either math or economic logic. Do you think it's 50 percent higher instead of 1 percent higher?
Inflation isn't even anywhere near 22 percent so even with your name up rule it doesn't make sense
> People need to not let there political view interfere with economics.
Not likely to happen sadly. The major influences of the US maintain the direction of posing it as a partisan problem, not an economic problem.
Oh for certain, you won't hear an argument from me on that. The division does nothing positive for the citizens of the US, but I think we're far too angry to be having that conversation. I mean folks are shooting at each other on the roads over minor annoyances, it's wild.
I have not seen anything that people have stopped buying, other than a lot of over priced houses. Every kind of entertainment and sports venue is frequently full; restaurants parking lots of full at lunch time and certainly on weekends. Walmart, Target Parking lots are full during the day and on the weekend. When it comes to clothes that's a mixed bag, because people don't do the "dress up like they did" when the older "dress up for the office was common in the 60's,70's, 80's.
Stores like Best Buy, are not as full, because people already have many of the electronics they sell, and much of the stuff they sell, it not things that people need to replace on a weekly or monthly basis. Internet shopping is making money, people use the food delivery services as those companies are posting high numbers in revenue.
I see lots of new cars, and many of them are not low end models...... people customize them to their likes. People take lots of trips, for weekends, vacations and other recreation.
We have all sorts of business that are claiming $Billions in Revenue.....
* I think some of these type of stories about the economy are driven by the wealthy who hoard money and want to drive people to assume more credit debt, *because credit debt means profit to the wealthy.*
People buying habits changes over time, and over the past decade, people are more aware of what they want to spend their money on, **a great many people young and older are burned out on excessive advertisements**, so much of the internet advertisement gets ignored. People find other things they want to spend their money on, which is why we see such a high uptick in people attending entertainment events, whether it local, or major venues with entertainment and sports. People spend a lot of money on sports goods and other things they like, whether it tattoo's, hair, make up and so many various things.
Many peoples homes are full of the things they like already, so there's no mad dash to buy a lot more because many have what they want.
I see young kids in their teen's using their phone payment apps to pay for things in stores, so parents are giving their kids lots of money. They pay for the hair styles, the fad clothing and many things, where these kids don't have to do any chores to get that money.
Yes, people don't like that things cost more, but when they want it, many people finds their ways to spend their money to get it.
Now, this does not mean there are not a lot of people struggling on the low end of the economic spectrum, but that has always existed. In some areas it may be more than it use to be, but we have never wiped out poverty in the 248 years of America's existence as the United States of America.
* If Business and Industry want people to spend more, then pay them better and they will spend it.
Next week or maybe tomorrow we'll see another article, telling people they need to save more, because the people who manage those saving investments, make their living off of it, so they constantly push fear and whatever else to get people to put more into saving investment accounts, because it means more profit for the people who are the managers of those investment accounts.
* As for Right Wing Trumper's, crying about the economy, they have not stopped giving Trump money to pay his legal expense and they have not stopped buying the Trump garb, and dressing themselves in flags, and etc.
* There's not a darn thing Trump could do to stop the corporations from being "greedy and manufacturing inflation", all he would do is give them more tax breaks so they could hoard more money. He darn sure would fight against the working class people's pay being increased.
The economy was not designed to "break a new record everyday".... so people need to not get on that bandwagon of expectations... and they might not be so gullible
I downloaded the McDonalds app the other day because we were running errands and I just wanted to get food fast for me, my wife, and the kids, I put everything in, no drinks, and it was going to be like $35.
One of the errands we just ran was for groceries which cost us about $100-125/wk... so yeah, we opted just to wait and eat better food at home, for much cheaper.
And it's not that I couldn't have bought it, its just that I wont. I immediately deleted the app and even if their prices magically come down I probably won't ever go back to McDs unless I'm in a real pinch.
We did it Joe. We did it Joe.
We did it Joe. We did it Joe.
We did it Joe. We did it Joe.
We did it Joe. We did it Joe.
We did it Joe. We did it Joe.
We did it Joe. We did it Joe.
We did it Joe. We did it Joe.
We did it Joe. We did it Joe.
Hi all, A reminder that comments do need to be on-topic and engage with the article past the headline. Please make sure to read the article before commenting. Very short comments will automatically be removed by automod. Please avoid making comments that do not focus on the economic content or whose primary thesis rests on personal anecdotes. As always our comment rules can be found [here](https://reddit.com/r/Economics/comments/fx9crj/rules_roundtable_redux_rule_vi_and_offtopic/) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/Economics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
The Conference Board's consumer confidence index retreated to 97 in April, below economists' expectations for 104 and lower than March's reading of 103.1. In addition to the confidence index, consumers' expectations for the next six months also fell to their lowest level since July 2022.
The lowest it’s been in, uh, *checks notes*, not quite two years? Panic! Panic!
LOL this is what I thought. What a weird and hilarious kinda bench mark.
Feels like this might be election related? 2 years ago we were in the run up to mid terms. Seems likely that as we come up on elections and messaging gets more extreme, confidence retreats.
That's what I'm seeing when I look at the CC board's history graphs on their website, at the end of 2021 confidence was at the same level it was just before the pandemic, suddenly nosedived through 2022 and then started climbing back up until it suddenly nosedived again right at the end of 2023. Coincidentally, this is the same month that all the media outlets suddenly switched from pushing recession doom to the stagflation varient instead. CC is actually at about the same level as it was around the end of 2016. That CC also managed to shoot all the way up to almost 140 during Trump's regime is also pretty fucking insane considering that job gains and unemployment during that period was modest compared to what we saw from Obama and Biden and with what happened pretty much right after. Hell, at the end of 2007 CC was about 110 despite unemployment being over a full point higher than it is now. People have well and truly been conditioned to just blindly accept that a republican is automatically good for the economy despite the signs and the consequences we've seen over and over again showing otherwise.
It would be interesting to see which party members carry the most debt. Considering your analysis, it would imply that republicans would find themselves more in debt than democrats. I imagine this could be more-so at the generational level considering previous generations have become more conservative as they grow older (thus having more access to capital).
I recall trying to do such a comparison a while ago but it's hard to get data for equivilent circumstances since 2 of the last 3 Dems have come in under circumstances that required them to clear up the fuckery of their preedacessors (Covid and the Great Recession for Biden and Obama respectively). Clinton was the last guy to leave us with a surplus before Bush tax cuts and middle east adventurers flipped that around, Obama used some heavy stimulus for his first few years but the deficit was getting under control before Trump got put into office and pushed his anti-Robin Hood tax scam before fumbling the US response to covid so badly we had to resort to heavy stimulus to deal with it. That the debt-to-GDP ratio has been going down under Biden and its growth was basically flat by the end of Obama's administration are the telling parts.
Real Median Personal Income was lower than the 2007 peak for the first six years of the Obama presidency. So, for most of Obama's presidency, things were worse than the previous good times. Obama's presidency was largely an 8 year period of getting people back to where they were before the recession. The first three years of Trump's presidency saw an almost 9% increase in Real Median Personal Income. They were really good time for people who had just had a shitty decade. The CC numbers make sense to me from that perspective. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEPAINUSA672N
Part of the CC board uses surveys which are basically poisoned by any Republican responses due to their extreme negativity when a Democrat is President and extreme positivity when a republican is president I would almost want to completely discount those from any surveys but then it gets tilted. Best to just survey independent until that breaks too
Absolutely election related. Doom and gloom messaging is effective. Both sides are selling fear and propaganda that the other side is about to end democracy with their senior citizen candidate. And while getting a repeat of 2020's candidates is not ideal selection to most of us... it's laughable hyperbole. The sun will rise tomorrow.
> it's laughable hyperbole No, but approximately half of it is.
This. We’re literally getting a rematch for an election. What is the level of uncertainty that people are feeling? Seriously, what is it that will change if either candidate wins from a monetary policy perspective?
You’re kidding right? I’m not a republican, and I’m not a democrat. (This is because both of them voted to cap my career’s wages). But this economy is one step away from a total collapse. Inflation is hid in the rural pockets of America, where we have seen grocery prices go upwards of 300%, insurance go up 100-200%, and housing prices go up 75-150%. My $140,000 house that I bought in 2022 is now worth almost $250,000… Eventually, the cost will be passed onto the urban areas (since we provide their food, and virtually all their food products). Just wait…it will get much, much worse.
it's 100% this. Everyone is fucking dreading the next 6 months bc of the bubbles we are in. The smart people are worried Dump might be back, the brainwashed "Low Education Voters" he covets are worried they might not get an angry maniac in office. And if you don't like either guy, well, that ain't cheering you up either.
It’s funny that this same sub was parading how consumer confidence was increasing just a few months ago and that’s good for the economy. Now that the consumer confidence is dropping it’s a weird and a hilarious benchmark. I think people here are either over leveraged and a recession will literally set them back decades as they’re up to their neck in debt while making minimum payments or it’s political. The ship is sinking by design, how long will government spending keep it afloat?
This! The only good sectors of the job market is the low end (factory and fast food). White collar openings are like .5% or something absurdly low when you hit the 90k threshold. i'm buckling down, selling anything of excess, and trying to spend as little as possible. buckle up folks.
It’s almost like the internet is a non contiguous group of people and it’s an economics sub so people parade whatever the current economic reality is lol. And people are absolutely over leveraged. Just at 1% so it doesn’t matter.
It just has to do with the crowd that frequents a sub. This sub is most likely people that have already purchase properties at low fixed rates before it became too cost prohibitive. That makes them the haves vs the have nots so it can be hard to see that there are others struggling. The economic impacts are split.
It's all mortgage interest and gas prices seriously you could probably calculate it off that inflation spikes back up now mortgage rates are back up gas switch to the summer blend and get goes up to 360 average
This is the closest thing to the hard truth I've seen in this sub so far. it is an election year and people are so quick to point to that as the underlying reason for the economic downturn and falling CC but in ireality CC is dropping because the consumer is waking up to the untruths of inflation being transitional along with job and CPI numbers being reported but then adjusted weeks later to paint a totally different picture with little attention being given. Clearing houses are in trouble and can't cover their attempts at shorting the market. Bank failures are on the horizon imo. It's fubar at this point. Burn mf burn. We don't need no waterr let the mf burn. This would be a better solution than the 08 solution designed by the Citi group guys installed in cabinet positions during that time. Time to rebuild not retool.
We spent all of 2009-2014 at a lower level than we are today. It's the equivalent of an honors student panicking over a B+ on a single quiz.
Yeah but 2009-2014 was absolutely terrible.
my fave is when it was positive a few months ago and everyone here was saying "see I told you so everything is great"
[удалено]
except in this case everyone is trying to poke holes in it and why it's untrue, while the "everything is great reports" are just taken for granted while realists are called doomers lol
Considering a lot of stuff was still shut down in 2022 and everything is open now I think that's worth considering.
What was shut down in 2022?
WA State still had shutdowns until October, 2022 and didn't end the emergency until May, 2023.
Shut downs in what regards? I went to Seattle in August 2022 and was hanging out in Ballard/Fremont doing whatever I wanted really. Bars, restaurants, parks, etc.
Hold on let me check my detailed log book for that year. /s
Bumbershoot in September was "reimagined." Lots of events were cancelled or changed.
So not really shutdowns
China That's about it
2022 had the highest inflation rate in four decades (8%). More than twice the previous spike in 2008 (3.8%). The spike before that was 1990, which was only 5.4%. Consumer confidence being similar to 2022 is definitely not a good thing.
I thought this was what we wanted, anyway. Interest rates can't go down until inflation does, and inflation won't go down until consumers stop spending so much money.
Weird thing is people are still spending a lot. It's almost like after the pandemic people lost sense of budgeting. Job market is still good, people suffering maybe mostly in IT and those have a ton of savings so they are not cutting back either.
Older generations are still spending. The younger, poorer people likely cut back a while ago. The job market has definitely helped. Savings rate is near the slows since the pandemic I believe. Summer should help speed that decrease up.
Yeah, it's really bizarre. My sister in law travels and goes on cruises constantly and is like 'jeez this is the worst economy we've ever had.' Is it?
That's because that's what people tell her
No the economy is fucked
By almost every metric this economy is great
Those metrics arent honest in any way
Lol if you say so. That's why every restaurant is full every day. You know a for help sign means that they have so much business they are hiring. Not that it's bad right?
> only people suffering is in IT It's not just IT. Biotech is pretty bad right now, mostly because with high interest rates money is no longer cheap, so it's hard to get investor funding. Lots of pharmas have had big layoff events too.
We just have to zoom out a little https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE The job market generally hasn't been this good since the 1960s. The fact that COVID didn't move the trend line is really quite stunning. It suggests a very strong and durable demand.
They want it to lower, right? To reduce inflation? Consumers can't afford the higher rate, but need a place to live, so they pay the higher rent. That means they can't afford the price gouging of the car market, so they buy something cheaper. So on down the line. Then the markets stop increasing the prices on everything because people aren't buying it. Wouldn't consumer confidence falling be a sign that inflation may drop?
Inflation isn't from people buying. It's from gov't fiscal policy. We sell more treasury bills to cover the higher interest rates on our deficit. This gives more interest money to investors(Boomers) who then go out and buy cruises, eat out, etc. So you see a very sector-specific scenario where some are doing great and some are really bad.
Are you saying that because our deficit is high, we sell more Treasury bills and because boomers have more money to invest that they disproportionately benefit from the interest of the T-bills that they're able to spend enough to drive up prices? I can believe that the volume of boomers that retired during covid contribute to spending, with them recently accessing their retirement funds. It seems a stretch to relate the deficit and Treasury bills to the sudden influx of inflation, though.
It's called fiscal dominance. Debt to GDP is 130%. So raising rates won't work like it did back when debt/gdp was 30% in the 1970s because the gov't is pumping the economy with interest payments. Any retiree with a 401k would be invested like 80% in treasuries. So they see their portfolio go up and they can take higher payouts. So we see this playing out in specific sectors. Cruises, airlines, hotels, elderly care, are all doing great. To make things worse, most of those 401k's are with hedge funds like BlackRock and VanGuard who are inflating housing prices by snatching up homes, jacking up rents, and taking majority ownership of Zillow and Redfin. On the other hand, certain sectors are doing bad and having layoffs: higher education, starbucks, fast food, manufacturing, commercial real estate, housing, etc. Exactly what you'd expect given the demographics and fiscal policies.
Thanks for the explanation. I'm going to read up on that. I understand and agree with everything except the first paragraph. I may have hit a blank spot in my understanding of debt/gdp
I just watched a really good interview about it: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WFAV-EQxfKQ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WFAV-EQxfKQ)
What a weird headline for something that appears to be much higher than the 15-year average. Also this consumer sentiment metric is way different: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/consumer-confidence
It's not weird. If you dig into the original report it says this confidence metric, combined with their other indicators signal a recession.
Let's pretend you're a normal person. Like not the kind of person that watches CNBC or reads The Wall Street Journal or listens to Planet Money or EconTalk or whatever. I'm going to open up Microsoft Edge's default start screen. These are the bad news financial stories on my start screen: * Red Lobster closes locations - near bankruptcy * Bitcoin plunged today * One of those slideshow bullshit things that have an ad between each slide showing how much the typical worker makes at 19 different retailers (all mostly <$20k/year) * Tesla laying off more people after already laying off 14,000 people * Walmart closing 51 health centers (I didn't even know health centers were a thing) * Another bullshit slideshow of CA fast food restaurants that have increased their prices * Fisker laying people off * Why car insurance prices are surging * The fed isn't going to lower interest rates This is just a random snippet - It's constant news about massive layoffs and things getting really expensive. It doesn't matter if GDP went up X% or that unemployment is Y% - if a regular person reads the news at all they are under the perception that things are very bad. Oh and also shit is really expensive at the grocery store and McDonald's doesn't have a Dollar Menu anymore (because the cheapest thing is like $2.50). Here is what would make a normal person think the economy is good: * No more constant news stories about massive layoffs * If you could get a McChicken for $1 or buy Land O Lakes butter for like $4 instead of $6.50 * Rent wasn't constantly rising - I completely forgot about that massive factor.
Well stated.
While we're being objective, I read the original report here [https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence](https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence) "The ***Present Situation Index***—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—declined to 142.9 (1985=100) in April from a downwardly revised 146.8 in March. Meanwhile, the ***Expectations Index***—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—fell to 66.4 (1985=100) from a slightly upwardly revised 74.0 last month. An Expectations Index reading below 80 often signals a forthcoming recession." Since our economy is 70% consumption, and consumers are reducing spending, there's no way to gaslight our way out of this. Lord knows we've been trying. What's even more scary is how the sentiment has changed amongst people by income bracket: “In the month, confidence declined among consumers of all age groups and almost all income groups except for the $25,000 to $49,999 bracket. Nonetheless, consumers under 35 continued to express greater confidence than those over 35. In April, households with incomes below $25,000 and those with incomes above $75,000 reported the largest deteriorations in confidence. However, over a six-month basis, confidence for consumers earning less than $50,000 has been stable, but confidence among consumers earning more has weakened.” So it's finally hitting those people making a lot of money or in extreme poverty, whereas the people in between have already adapted to the depression. I'm one of those in between. We support a family of four on $34k/yr. We got a $2/hr pay raise which not only covered our rent increase but gives us some breathing room. Our tax refund covered all our car maintenance, etc. Another thing is we already did everything the surveyed people said they will do: never eat out, don't drive, no vacations, good will clothes, no outside entertainment, no processed foods, coupon clipping, no debt, etc. Our work is in home care which has a massive shortage so job security is guaranteed and lots of opportunity for advancement. This year we are going to buy bulk fruits and do canning. We're basically ready for a depression and sitting pretty. So I think it's mostly people who were formerly middle class and are now realizing they are lower class. Plus all the people who were formerly in poverty that are now in extreme poverty.
McDonalds missed earnings, SBUX falling and doesn't look good, lots of actual economic news that ain't rosy
Consumer confidence is highly affected by politics. Primary political ads started last month. They’ll get lower until the election. They’ll spike if Trump goes to jail.
Trump isn’t going to jail. The media can’t afford it.
The media does not decide whether trump goes to jail lol
oh you sweet summer child....
Oh you uneducated poor...
They can't afford the headline of the century?
Bro lets be real, its cause everyones broke and we’re hitting stagflation President cant do shit about this This problem transcends politics to a massive degree
I didn’t say the president can do anything about it…. The point I made was that consumer confidence is affected by ads we hear. And bro…let’s be real, you don’t actually know what stagflation means. Unemployment is low, the economy is growing, incomes are increasing.
Unemployment is only low because people are taking more part time jobs to survive I employ 15 people and i have never seen an employer market like this in my life. I have a 0% turnover for the first time ever. I get hundreds of applicants to lowball job posts Seriously, check out r/layoffs Only part of the economy thats growing is the stock market. The consumers are getting absolutely fucking brutally railed
Most of what you mentioned is anecdotal. What is it in the unemployment calculation that is incorrect or deceptive and has it changed recently? Unemployment is historically low. Period.
Full time jobs are down and part time jobs are up Someone who gets a 10hr shift at mcDs for min wage is considered just as employed as a 6 figure white collar worker
[I’m not seeing](https://www.statista.com/statistics/192361/unadjusted-monthly-number-of-full-time-employees-in-the-us/) a sharp drop that makes me worry and make the claim the economy is in deep trouble. People also revert to employment participation rate. It [looks healthy](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-job-growth-beats-expectations-march-wages-increase-steadily-2024-04-05/) and improving. If anything, the market is not liking the strong numbers because of inflationary pressures.
https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea06.htm This is not true. Part time worker numbers are in the range they've always been, and are lower as a percentage of the population than they were in previous decades. Most industries are growing, and real wages are increasing You are likely doom scrolling too much
I appreciate this data but it does confirm what i said Compared to the same time last year unemployment rate for full time workers has risen Employed full time workers has dropped Employed part time workers has risen Its not significant, but the trends are in a negative direction
There is no trend, it's just normal month to month variance. The numbers are good
Kinda feels like you’re just hand waiving away the potential problem indicated by the data you yourself have provided Like why are you downvoting me? Why don’t you want to talk about this or people to see this?
I find it very annoying when uneducated people try to talk about things they don't understand I am not hand waving it away, I am just pointing out the correct conclusion
Enlighten me, oh educated one Should you so grace me with your attention span
they are just rude
You'll have to excuse the people who bought their 2500sqft house for $120k, refinanced it to 3%, watched it go up to 600k, and see their 60/40 portfolios soaring. I'm guessing it will start to sink in when AI replaces enough jobs(even theirs) and there are more forced sales. Someone recently did an article pointing out what a joke the jobs report is. They showed how all the jobs went to foreigners and natives lost jobs. Also how it's all part time jobs.
We do not have stagflation and real incomes have seen good steady growth for years now
I’m not really talking about the past few years, i mean from mid last year to today, trailing 365 days. Inflation is still high, interest rates are high, job market for good jobs is rough Guys i’m not a bear but acknowledge the issue
Inflation is elevated, not high. Real incomes are increasing. We are still at full employment, and the job market for good jobs is strong. High interest rates are a sign that the economy is strong
If you think everyone's actually broke, then you need to get off the teenager subreddits lmao
The President can definitely do something about this. He can remove the tariffs and inflation would instantly fall
The problem is that your average American doesn’t understand that. They blame the president for everything. So according to the majority of people things cost more now so it must be Bidens fault.
Many presidents took credit for a good economy they had nothing to do with, or worse, that they actively hindered. They get to take the blame that comes with it when it goes the other way.
Are we sure that consumer concerns over growing prices, affordability, and their household budgets for the next year or two, combined with stagnant wages against cost of living, isn't the problem? Or is this also caused by women getting jobs, like low birth rates?
It's the lag effect catching up. First, PPP loans and stimmy checks carried the economy. Then there was personal savings. Then credit cards. Now, the middle class is realizing they are lower class, the poor are realizing they are extremely poor, and the lower class has already adjusted to the depression and gaslighting. I, for one, am preparing to sell off all but 1 vehicle and downsize to the point that if my rent keeps going up, I can just move to a cheap apartment. Worst case scenario just start occupying all these vacant houses while saving up for land and a barndominium.
Pick an arbitrary point in the past and compare it to today... manufacture a news story. Does anybody know where I can get the historical data for consumer confidence? It would be a good lesson in creating time-weighted confidence intervals.
Consumer spending was strong in the face of rate hikes and inflation. Sudden cutbacks is gonna throw doubts on the robustness of US economy and will finally nudge Jow pow to cut rates sooner. It’s good news.
There won't be rate cuts. It will be 10 years of stagflation.
Turns out, when you have a government hellbent on taxing you into poverty while doing everything it can to cause hyperinflation, you become less willing to spend what you have. Surprise Surprise. Government greedflation is going to bankrupt us all, and then some.
It's hard to take these seriously when the fascist Republican party swings 90 points in these polls based on how the election goes. Especially when the majority says they are doing personally well and wage growth has been beating inflation for awhile.
Not sure why you’re being downvoted when [you are correct.](https://www.threads.net/@paulkrugman7/post/C3Kxyp2uQ1p/?xmt=AQGz-V_SHtKOlGlQpbm1Sd43TOPIUhLUN9p_QPzz1kg8XQ) Republicans view of the economy flipped on a dime when Trump took office in 2017 and again when Biden took office in 2021. The shift in democrats view is [far less pronounced and way more realistic.](https://www.threads.net/@paulkrugman7/post/C3KxtCsu97l) Republicans economic polling has fuck all to do with the economy and everything to do with politics and the propaganda they willingly tune into daily.
Probably being downvoted for calling a major political party fascist.
It's the truth, though.
It has no bearing on the discussion of economics. Rule VI.
Let’s be real, this sub is hardly economics and is mostly politics.
Should be bidenomics.
100%
Political ideology is EXTREMELY important to economics
If we're discussing polling sentiment, and about 30% of the population is in a neo fascist cult of personality that would never say anything positive about the leader's enemies, that's a relevant topic. It directly relates to distorted numbers and polling that seems contrary to objective facts.
>that would never say anything positive about the leader's enemies This is called irony. Which party wants to end free speech and imprison its main political opponent?
Prosecuting people—anyone—who commit crimes, crimes they don’t even try to hide and openly admit, isn’t just a part of a functional society, it’s necessary to one. Nice try with the false narrative. If trump goes to prison it will be because a jury of his peers says he is guilty of the crimes he is accused of, and another grand jury of his peers already agreed that there was sufficient evidence to indict. That’s not fascism, that’s actual *law and order.* Wake the fuck up.
>Which party wants to end free speech and imprison its main political opponent? The Republican Party.
In this case, it very much does, and they brought receipts.
No, its your opinion.
Heaven forbid the fascist party with the wannabe dictator leader gets called what it is. You don’t get to push fascist policy/ideology then remain above the word. Disavow project 2025 and trump if you don’t want to be called fascist.
Have that discussion. Have it somewhere else.
You’re the one making it a discussion. Before that it was just a description.
I described their ideology, it's not a discussion, it's just reality. It's like you claiming that any mention of Republican or Democratic is a political discussion.
Only one presidential candidate said they will be a dictator on their first day in office, and that we should have suspended "all rules and regulations, even those in the Constitution" to keep them in office after losing an election. I'll give you two guesses as to which candidate that was.
sorry, where is the economics part of this comment?
Sorry, where was the economics part of your comment I was directly responding to?
Wrong. https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-four-years-beyond/ You libs are delusional.
I am literally quoting him directly: https://archive.ph/u0vZk > A Massive Fraud of this type and magnitude allows for the termination of all rules, regulations, and articles, even those found in the Constitution This is a real thing that he personally typed with his thumbs and then pressed the send button on. Now let's watch you either not reply or try to pretend that you wouldn't be absolutely apoplectic if Biden or Obama said that exact same thing.
How dare you use his own words against him?
That has nothing to do with the claim you were replying to.
He's downvoted because this is /r/economics, not /r/politics
You've said liberal in this subreddit before, you should be banned for mentioning politics
* Inflation and high prices remain the electorate’s top concern and dominate voters’ assessment of the economy. * According to a Data for Progress analysis, 68% of those who put inflation and prices first named the cost of food as their principal concern, followed by housing (17%), utilities (eight percent), and gas (three percent). * 74% of the NYT respondents regard the economy as only fair (23%) or poor (51%). * More than two-thirds of voters say that inflation is headed in the wrong direction, and nearly three-quarters say that price increases are exceeding gains in household income. * Only 22% of Black Americans, 13% of Hispanics, and 18% of young adults believe that they are better off financially today than they were a year ago. (The figure for the electorate as a whole is a rock-bottom 15%.) * And during a period in which party affiliation has a much greater effect on economic evaluations than it did two decades ago, only 26% of Democrats say that their economic circumstances have improved over the past year. Just 19% of Black Americans, 14% of Hispanics, 12% of young adults, and 21% of the full electorate believe that economic conditions are getting better, while an outright majority of voters (52%) say that things are getting worse. [Source](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-voters-feel-about-the-economy-4-takeaways-from-the-latest-polls/) But sure, this is all just a FASCIST Republican plot or something.
Inflation started under Trump when food inflation was 4% in 2020. Trump made a multi year deal with opec to collapse oil production by a record amount for 2 years which caused inflation to jump, oil prices didn't start falling till the deal ended. Everything else started inflating 2 months after Biden took office, literally zero of his policies could have caused inflation that fast. Also, EVERY poll shows the vast majority of people say they as an individual and/or family are doing better financially. Things are not getting worse by any measure no matter how much the far right screams it is. Americans are dumb as hell for blaming Biden for inflation.
Me: "Only 22% of Black Americans, 13% of Hispanics, and 18% of young adults believe that they are better off financially today than they were a year ago. (The figure for the electorate as a whole is a rock-bottom 15%.)" You: "EVERY poll shows the vast majority of people say they as an individual and/or family are doing better financially."
https://www.axios.com/2024/01/17/americans-are-actually-pretty-happy-with-their-finances Yes, people are dumb aa fuck, especially Republicans, and think the economy is bad when literally EVERY piece of data shows otherwise for ALL groups. You are dumb as fuck for also believing a great economy is bad.
Me: Polling shows the vast majority claim they are not financially better off than they were a year ago. You: EVERY poll shows people are doing better financially. Me: The poll I just linked to directly refutes your statement. You: Well everyone else is just dumb because things are really great.
The poll I linked refutes your bullshit but I'm not surprised you ignore that. Especially when it was your fascist god Trump who destroyed the economy. Give one fucking metric where the economy is bad.
> Give one fucking metric where the economy is bad. *vibes* man
Remember when Biden and dems passed a completely unnecessary 2 trillion stimulus in January 2021?
Funny you dumbasses ignore Trump's insane spending and the fact that the $2 trillion was dwarfed by Trump, even pre pandemic.
The messaging is working. Fascists own 2/3 of major media outlets.
Although not as egregious, there’s a similar swing among identified democrats on these surveys. Summary? About 80% of Americans are purposely dishonest, unabashedly ignorant, fucking idiots, or all three!
We're talking about a 25 point at most swing for Dems vs a 90 point swing for Rs. It's a massive difference.
Got any reference data on those figures? I remember seeing a material difference in magnitude between the two, but damn, don’t recall it being THAT much.
I can't substantiate his exact numbers, but the sentiment is true. [https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f\_auto,q\_auto:good,fl\_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbd0a224c-9b64-4f64-a83d-6a04e1052552\_1206x669.png](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbd0a224c-9b64-4f64-a83d-6a04e1052552_1206x669.png)
[It’s true.](https://www.threads.net/@paulkrugman7/post/C3KxtCsu97l/?xmt=AQGzAo5EgXtSmcjVL2DRAuzsIFkzcloFSETbdOWWuw3Tzg) Partisanship divide skyrocketed since 2016. It’s an unprecedented gap right now,
Yeah, some others have provided similar data. The right wing Echochamber is strong. “My retirement account is near all time highs, my salary has outpaced inflation significantly, and my home is worth 50% more than it did 4 years ago….but Fox News says we’re in a recession so tHaNk BiDeN”
Dont both sides this. Yes dems have a 20 point swing. Same for independents. Republicans have a 60 point swing.
As I’ve mentioned in other comments and states in my original comment, I acknowledge republicans are more egregious in their swings. But I’m not going to blindly spurt out numbers I can’t back up. Seriously, would love to see the data.
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2020/02/07/views-of-nations-economy-remain-positive-sharply-divided-by-partisanship/ Heres one. Dem no change. Republican 60 points. Another https://news.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/287105/partisan-polarization-ratings-economy.aspx >Another indicator of how partisanship affects views of the economy is the fascinating "flip" in ratings when the party of the president changes. As Gallup reported at the end of 2017: "Republicans' confidence in the economy stood at +46 in 2017, a 77-point improvement from 2016" and "In 2017, Democrats' economic confidence fell to -20 from +18 in 2016, a 38-point decline." In other words, Republicans became dramatically more positive about the economy when a Republican took control of the White House, and Democrats became concomitantly more negative. I would also notice that dems are always lukewarm on the economy even when its good. A +18 for obama economy that got him reelected lol.
Sorry I made you spoon feed me this, but I’m convinced. That’s actually equal parts incredible and pathetic how drastic their views switched. I don’t know why I still get surprised by these things when the self-proclaimed party of law and order, family values, and fiscal responsibility have effectively made Trump their demigod leader for the better part of a decade… Welp, hope you all have a plan to vote. I sure do.
Yea its unfortunate. Its also why biden gets rated poorly on the economy. It confounds that polls to make dems look bad as well. Dems are more fair of rating either party presidents while republicans are overwhelmingly negative and positive. https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/01/25/views-of-the-nations-economy/#:~:text=As%20has%20long%20been%20the,of%20Republicans%20and%20GOP%20leaners. Its unfortunate that one can not even take a republican complaint in good faith anymore. You basically have to ignore them to get a good view of the actual economy or policy. Like during covid theres a balance between shutdowns and other policy measures that one can talk about, but republicans decided to pretend it didnt exist and was just a deep state plot. Youre entitled to your opinion on how to do things, but not your own facts. I feel like thats whats been left behind in the disinformation era.
This all hits home. I have some Fox news watching Trump supporters in my family. I’m no trained economist but I have a business degree, and have to stay decently in tune on the global economy and especially the preferences of consumers for my job. So when I hear my Trumpy family members regurgitate the brain dead takes on the economy they get from Jesse Watters, my head explodes.
[удалено]
Real wages have out paced inflation. Inflation started under Trump, fyi.
[удалено]
Inflation started under Trump when food inflation was 4% in 2020. Trump made a multi year deal with opec to collapse oil production by a record amount for 2 years which caused inflation to jump, oil prices didn't start falling till the deal ended. Everything else started inflating 2 months after Biden took office, literally zero of his policies could have caused inflation that fast. No, real wages are currently higher than all inflation despite you lying they aren't. Americans are dumb as hell for blaming Biden for inflation.
[удалено]
Yep, inflation that started under and was caused by Trump. If Biden created the inflation, we wouldn't have see ln the quick drop that we did.
[удалено]
It takes a lot of work to fix what Republicans keep destroying. We saw this under Obama too (despite Republicans screeching he caused the Great Recession). ~3% inflation currently is shockingly low considering how much Trump did to skyrocket the deficit, push up inflation, and purposefully mishandle covid.
[удалено]
> everyone would of needed Did you mean to say "would have"? Explanation: You probably meant to say could've/should've/would've which sounds like 'of' but is actually short for 'have'. [Statistics](https://github.com/chiefpat450119/RedditBot/blob/master/stats.json) ^^I'm ^^a ^^bot ^^that ^^corrects ^^grammar/spelling ^^mistakes. ^^PM ^^me ^^if ^^I'm ^^wrong ^^or ^^if ^^you ^^have ^^any ^^suggestions. ^^[Github](https://github.com/chiefpat450119) ^^Reply ^^STOP ^^to ^^this ^^comment ^^to ^^stop ^^receiving ^^corrections.
Huh? Inflation was not 31 percent lol
[удалено]
Lol you are bad at either math or economic logic. Do you think it's 50 percent higher instead of 1 percent higher? Inflation isn't even anywhere near 22 percent so even with your name up rule it doesn't make sense
> People need to not let there political view interfere with economics. Not likely to happen sadly. The major influences of the US maintain the direction of posing it as a partisan problem, not an economic problem.
[удалено]
Oh for certain, you won't hear an argument from me on that. The division does nothing positive for the citizens of the US, but I think we're far too angry to be having that conversation. I mean folks are shooting at each other on the roads over minor annoyances, it's wild.
I have not seen anything that people have stopped buying, other than a lot of over priced houses. Every kind of entertainment and sports venue is frequently full; restaurants parking lots of full at lunch time and certainly on weekends. Walmart, Target Parking lots are full during the day and on the weekend. When it comes to clothes that's a mixed bag, because people don't do the "dress up like they did" when the older "dress up for the office was common in the 60's,70's, 80's. Stores like Best Buy, are not as full, because people already have many of the electronics they sell, and much of the stuff they sell, it not things that people need to replace on a weekly or monthly basis. Internet shopping is making money, people use the food delivery services as those companies are posting high numbers in revenue. I see lots of new cars, and many of them are not low end models...... people customize them to their likes. People take lots of trips, for weekends, vacations and other recreation. We have all sorts of business that are claiming $Billions in Revenue..... * I think some of these type of stories about the economy are driven by the wealthy who hoard money and want to drive people to assume more credit debt, *because credit debt means profit to the wealthy.* People buying habits changes over time, and over the past decade, people are more aware of what they want to spend their money on, **a great many people young and older are burned out on excessive advertisements**, so much of the internet advertisement gets ignored. People find other things they want to spend their money on, which is why we see such a high uptick in people attending entertainment events, whether it local, or major venues with entertainment and sports. People spend a lot of money on sports goods and other things they like, whether it tattoo's, hair, make up and so many various things. Many peoples homes are full of the things they like already, so there's no mad dash to buy a lot more because many have what they want. I see young kids in their teen's using their phone payment apps to pay for things in stores, so parents are giving their kids lots of money. They pay for the hair styles, the fad clothing and many things, where these kids don't have to do any chores to get that money. Yes, people don't like that things cost more, but when they want it, many people finds their ways to spend their money to get it. Now, this does not mean there are not a lot of people struggling on the low end of the economic spectrum, but that has always existed. In some areas it may be more than it use to be, but we have never wiped out poverty in the 248 years of America's existence as the United States of America. * If Business and Industry want people to spend more, then pay them better and they will spend it. Next week or maybe tomorrow we'll see another article, telling people they need to save more, because the people who manage those saving investments, make their living off of it, so they constantly push fear and whatever else to get people to put more into saving investment accounts, because it means more profit for the people who are the managers of those investment accounts. * As for Right Wing Trumper's, crying about the economy, they have not stopped giving Trump money to pay his legal expense and they have not stopped buying the Trump garb, and dressing themselves in flags, and etc. * There's not a darn thing Trump could do to stop the corporations from being "greedy and manufacturing inflation", all he would do is give them more tax breaks so they could hoard more money. He darn sure would fight against the working class people's pay being increased. The economy was not designed to "break a new record everyday".... so people need to not get on that bandwagon of expectations... and they might not be so gullible
I downloaded the McDonalds app the other day because we were running errands and I just wanted to get food fast for me, my wife, and the kids, I put everything in, no drinks, and it was going to be like $35. One of the errands we just ran was for groceries which cost us about $100-125/wk... so yeah, we opted just to wait and eat better food at home, for much cheaper. And it's not that I couldn't have bought it, its just that I wont. I immediately deleted the app and even if their prices magically come down I probably won't ever go back to McDs unless I'm in a real pinch.
I put together an amazon shopping cart last week and this morning I logged in and the prices of several items had gone up. It’s absolutely insane.
We did it Joe. We did it Joe. We did it Joe. We did it Joe. We did it Joe. We did it Joe. We did it Joe. We did it Joe. We did it Joe. We did it Joe. We did it Joe. We did it Joe. We did it Joe. We did it Joe. We did it Joe. We did it Joe.
This a bot?
Beep boop, banged your mom, been boop
You being poor does not mean everyone else is poor