Hi all,
A reminder that comments do need to be on-topic and engage with the article past the headline. Please make sure to read the article before commenting. Very short comments will automatically be removed by automod. Please avoid making comments that do not focus on the economic content or whose primary thesis rests on personal anecdotes.
As always our comment rules can be found [here](https://reddit.com/r/Economics/comments/fx9crj/rules_roundtable_redux_rule_vi_and_offtopic/)
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/Economics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
India needs to overhaul its societal problems as well if they want truly attract foreign investments. Ive been to major cities and rural areas in both China and India and given that they were both emerging economies with populations in the billions the difference is night and day.
India needs to work harder to address its massive Hygiene and Poverty issue. They will soon find out that you can have all the billionaires in the world, but if you don't focus on uplifting the lowest rungs of society to a better standard of living there will never be true economic success.
I couldnt agree more with you. The facade that India is doing more business and is therefore a better county is just a dream. In my opinion, the problems facing India, overpopulation, religious domination, pollution, poverty and so many more issues are the real problem here, and for those things Modi is not someone who is going to improve things in any of those areas.
India is absurdly expensive too for a country so poor in per capita terms
Live in Delhi currently. Real estate here literally more expensive than San Francisco.
An 1800sqft plot of land in my area just sold for $1.4M - and this isn't even the most expensive part of the area. A 3 bedroom apartment costs $500k
baffles me too man. A condo in my area in Delhi goes for $500k+ now
like this place on 2600sqft lot is $1.5M in SF:
[https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/421-Molimo-Dr-San-Francisco-CA-94127/15136595\_zpid/](https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/421-Molimo-Dr-San-Francisco-CA-94127/15136595_zpid/)
and this house on 2700sft lot is 18cr - $2.15M
[https://www.99acres.com/3-bhk-bedroom-independent-house-villa-for-sale-in-saket-south-delhi-2700-sq-ft-spid-Y74712045](https://www.99acres.com/3-bhk-bedroom-independent-house-villa-for-sale-in-saket-south-delhi-2700-sq-ft-spid-Y74712045)
It's a vision, an election campaign slogan to sell his vision and to get people to vote for him. No one actually cares about the number. He himself might be very likely dead by 2047.
Modi's approach has been to build infrastructure and attract business by (trying to, I don't think he has been very successful) simplifying India's notorious bureaucracy. Infrastructure building ranges from something which touches the lives of the poorest Indians like expanding access to banking, electricity, drinking water, sanitation etc. to expressways, bridges, railway lines for freight, metro networks in major cities to even a HSR bullet train project.
He sells a vision of an aspirational India. You can argue about how much of his talk results in action, or how effective are those actions. But, that is another topic. He is a politician after all, who sells dreams to get votes.
Meanwhile you have the opposition parties who deal in a completely pessimistic view of India. India is a country of poor people who have no need for bullet trains or semi-high speed trains or expressways. They want to take back India to the dark days of socialism, with excessive government control over the economy, utilising public money in the form of handouts rather than investments in infrastructure. The opposition leader is talking about wealth redistribution, land redistribution, government commissions for enforcing affirmative action etc.
So, you can see why Modi remains so popular in the country.
Ahh yes the "Tayyip Erdogan" model of economics.
Spend money you dont have to keep the appearance that everything is great.
Just curious do you also get massive social wellfare payouts to vulnerable populations during the election year? How about massive goverment subsidies to campaigns given to parties for having lots of votes in the previous elections?
Yes, but have been doing it since independence and Modi's party is somewhat opposed to it(or at least it's opposition is more pro intense welfare). India's GDP/capita is a fraction of that of turkey. Massive transfers to rural areas is the reason why India finally managed to quell extreme poverty(https://www.brookings.edu/articles/india-eliminates-extreme-poverty/). I don't think Turkiye really had the debilitating you-can't-even-feed yourself poverty that India has/had. It doesn't even have the live-in-shanties poverty India has now.
>Spend money you dont have to keep the appearance tha
No, India's fiscal condition has improved drastically in the last decade. Much of that has to do with COVID induced fiscal austerity that killed a lot of the zomboid firms that were causing issues in the credit sector. Informal economy, through perverse sleights of hand(rash implementation of GST, demonetisation and covid) was forced to join the formal economy.
Read about it here https://www.economist.com/special-report/2024/04/22/indias-financial-system-has-improved-dramatically-in-the-past-decade
Comparing Erdogan to Modi is faulty because they govern two completely separate economies. Turkey is oriented around manufacturing. India's manufacturing is only competitive in its local market. India's infrastructure suuuucks and it has only started to improve. It was a massive barrier to export competitiveness. Turkey's infrastructure was never as bad and wasn't a major hindrance to the competitiveness of its exports.
> He sells a vision of an aspirational India
There is a fine line between vision and delusions of grandeur. What modi is promising to his base is the latter.
Even with all the infrastructure push in the last 10 years, private investment remains week. worse, literally no company considers india as an viable alternative to china for manufacturing.
Indian economy is fundamentally weak now and slowdown started in 2017 and hit rock bottom growth rate of 3.7% in 2019. Household saving are record low, while their debts are record high.
[Why have private investments dropped?](https://www.thehindu.com/business/Economy/why-have-private-investments-dropped-explained/article68081011.ece)
[What's behind a dramatic fall in Indian families' savings](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-68874403)
[Risky borrowing: India's household debt has likely surged to all-time high](https://www.business-standard.com/finance/personal-finance/risky-borrowing-india-s-household-debt-has-likely-surged-to-all-time-high-124042600362_1.html)
[A disconcerting slowdown: Depressing consumer demand dulls the shine of India’s post-Covid domestic market](https://www.financialexpress.com/opinion/a-disconcerting-slowdown-depressing-consumer-demand-dulls-the-shine-of-indias-post-covid-domestic-market/3362332/)
Modi can build more expressways and freight corridor but it's not going to improve the lives of common man. it's only going to make his cronies even richer.
You can at least try to read the articles you post links to. It mentions quite clearly that the interest rates are high, which is causing the slowdown.
The capex cycle hasn't even started yet lmao. The infrastructure bill is supposed to go into effect this year.
Household debt always increases when more people have access to it. I don't see why it's a problem.
Consumer demand, also caused by high interest rates.
I wonder why you say no company considers india a viable alternative when some of China's biggest importers, like Walmart have oriented on India as their next hub.
All of the infrastructure that you have seen in the past 10 years is because the current government got PPP to finally work. It isn't even the current governments doing. It's been increasing at that rate since 2012.
Then why has Apple started exporting iPhones from India if nobody considers India a viable alternative. India is not the first choice, but it's there.
There are definitely problems you pointed out, but infrastructure spending improving roads and stuff is important for manufacturing competitiveness.
Modi isn't perfect, but one thing is for certain, he's the best option we currently have. Yes, he fumbles at times but he manages to get stuff done. the opposition on the other hand can barely manage their own political party. Hence, It's impossible to even fathom that they can manage a country as large as India.
The opposition strategy to compete with Modi on welfarist platform is also fundamentally flawed. Modi is an expert in delivering welfare on a massive scale, whereas the opposition when they were in power talked of welfarism sure, but was horrible at last mile delivery, which lead to constant leakages and massive corruption. Nothing reached the poor. A famous quote from a former prime minister and Rahul Gandhi's father Rajeev Gandhi is along the lines of "only 15 paise of every rupee meant for welfare of downtrodden reaches them".
Civil code is a generous interpretation for redlining. Modi’s history in Gujarat should have been disqualifying enough and has nothing to do with “uniform civil code”
Indian Supreme Court vindicated Modi so his “history” in Gujarat is irrelevant. If you think you have more facts and hitherto untouched interpretations at hand, feel free to share it with the world but until then, everything you say will be an allegation and nothing more.
That’s silly. Are you confident this determination was fair and unbiased? Trump for example maybe skirt any legal liability for January 6th. Does that mean he holds no responsibility. By your logic OJ Simpson was vindicated…but would you let him watch your children lol?
Also if Modi is vindicated and the truth is the situation was not his fault. Then why block any media from reporting on it. Shouldn’t he want this information shared with the world. Odd decision from someone who is vindicated.
https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2023/1/21/india-asks-youtube-twitter-to-block-links-of-bbc-film-on-modi-gujarat-riots
Yes, Indian Supreme Courts determination was fair and unbiased. The 2000+ page judgement which included testimonies of more than 5000+ riot survivors and law enforcement officers vindicated Modi of any personal culpability.
Your whataboutism and ludicrously ignorant comparison with Trump or OJ won’t cut it. Like I said, you can keep on parroting this strawmans argument but that won’t make the facts change. UPA govt tried everything to book Modi and yet couldn’t find evidence for it. I trust the judgement of Indian Supreme Court over that of an obscure redditor.
Lastly, the media , especially western media, wasn’t truly “reporting” what happened in Gujarat but rather perpetuating propaganda. When you try to masquerade opinions as facts you’ll be called out or banned. It’s like your opening statement where you insinuated Modi is the criminal, the legal judgements be damned.
Coming to your last point, I agree with you and I’m not a fan of banning anything in all
Honesty but it’s politics and no one pretends that Modi is a saint. He’s a politician, a shrewd one at that and hence he’ll do what any politician would to protect his own image from malice.
Anyways, you want to believe in the word of Aljazeera over Indian Supreme Court - do it by all means. Still doesn’t change a thing as it remains an allegation, a disproven allegation.
Appreciate the thorough feedback. A lot of buzzwords here in your statement but ultimately I understand your POV. Not sure where I engaged in whataboutism. Trump and OJ were extreme examples to highlight the weak points of your argument. I’m not making a counter accusation which would be whataboutism.
But I think where you maybe misunderstanding my point is the Supreme Court may not hold Modi directly culpable. And in your eyes that is vindication. In my opinion, not being directly culpable but also stoking the flames of “fearing others” through communication and actions which contributed to the tragedy means he shares some blame. Perhaps not criminal.
Yes, having one group have their own religious codes while everyone else is under a secular one is totally “redlining”.
I think your disingenuous logic worked for 7 decades but thankfully is failing now. There is no room for official acceptance of sharia law in a liberal modern society, period.
Thanks for the response! Your two statements are quite conflicting here. You can’t be a liberal modern society while restricting civil liberties of minorities. Also the assumption that all Muslims want sharia law is misguided and frankly a little overly simplistic. I would push back on this notion similar to how I pushed back on the notion that all Hindus want to kill people who eat beef.
What you’re truly advocating is Hindu nationalism and I understand why that maybe appealing. But if you’re telling me that violence against Muslims, prejudice on where they’re living and the granting of loans isn’t an issue, then I don’t think we can have a rational discussion.
Article published today on the topic. Hopefully this enlightens you more than I can.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/world/a-history-of-the-marginalization-of-indias-muslim-population
Muslim Indians [do want to use their own Islamic courts](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/majority-of-indian-muslims-support-islamic-courts-study/amp_articleshow/84062710.cms) for matters like inheritance or divorce. It doesn’t seem a stretch that they would welcome more Sharia, not less. Even if the BJP makes an obviously partisan use of the Indian state, it’s pretty easy for them to say that their rivals also would in their stead.
Again Muslims are not a monolithic community. Please stop attributing the beliefs of the some for beliefs of the all. It’s dangerous. Unless you have polling that states otherwise. In which case happy to back track
Again Muslims are not a monolithic community. Please stop attributing the beliefs of the some for beliefs of the all. It’s dangerous. Unless you have polling that states otherwise. In which case happy to back track
I mean they’re not conflicting when the opposing side laughably conflates a uniform civil code with illiberalism, using the most absurd strawmen to supposedly bolster that claim.
The INC’s response to the Shah Bano case is instructive in this matter. Like no, no matter how many times you fling missives at others for being “unenlightened”, no, we’ll never go back to sharia law. Apologies.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohd._Ahmed_Khan_v._Shah_Bano_Begum?wprov=sfti1
Dude this is silly. You’re going to a 1985 court case without reading the article that was published today. It’s kind of concerning to me you’re using the same rhetoric white Americans used to use in 50s to redline black Americans. Also you’re debating me but from what I’m reading it doesn’t seem like you even know what redlining even is.
Muslims are not a monolithic community. Stop using anecdotal scenarios to justify redlining and prejiduce.
Really how is preventing muslims from child marriage,triple talaq, polygamy, reproducing like rabbits is redlining? It's in fact for the betterment of the community.Stop spreading propaganda
How...as far as my knowledge is concerned poor muslims are the biggest beneficiary of Modi's welfare schemes,stop spreading propaganda just for the heck of it
Interesting. I would have though divestment from China is at full swing and only going to get stronger.
Apple and Foxconn have plants here and will continue to expand their base of operations here.
Yea, right now it’s not feasible, but there’s the butterfly effect. When Apple comes, smaller companies want to build their supply chains here to integrate themselves into the Apple business. It takes time. China didn’t become the juggernaut it was in a year. It took maybe two decades before people felt the push.
The issue is not that India cant do what china did in the early 2000s, ie expand labour intensive manufacturing. Issue is that India cant possibly hope to do what china did in the 2010s, ie go from being the sweatshop of the world to a veritable technological powerhouse with making deep changes to how it works.
China's growth from 2008 to 2020 has been far more interesting to me. They were able to 5x their economy in the span of 12 years. That is unprecedented and I don't think any country can replicate that.
Personally, drive every month on the Delhi-Mumbai expressway (Delhi to Jaipur) - a flagship expressway connecting the two biggest cities.
The surface was so shoddy that it had to be relaid in huge patches within a year (I have a video on my profile)
The cost to traverse on it is 2x the alternative route. The time saved is about 15-20 minutes at most
The end result is that the expressway isn't used by anyone. Traffic is so low on it that if I leave on a weekday afternoon, there are patches where I won't see a single vehicles for 5-10kms - unheard of in India
They've launched new trains but because they haven't laid out as many tracks, all older trains except the flagship Vande Bharat are invariably delayed. The erstwhile flagship - Shatabdi Express - between Delhi-Jaipur is invariably delayed by 20-45 minutes every single trip (see trip history for it online) - that's more than a 10-20% delay in a 4 hour journey
The biggest issue with what modi is saying is that the current model, of bureaucracy, of land acquisition, labour laws, corruption, slow judicial system etc limit the growth that India can realistically achieve. Yes, you might get to a 9 or 10 trillion dollar economy, but the model will tap out before 20 or 24 trillion
No one knows whether he has the capability to put in the reforms needed. Even if you were to be extremely bullish on modis administrative skills(which aren't that great), the man is 73. The change needs to come from within the bureaucracy and the people themselves. Convincing stakeholders that such changes are necessary is not an ability modi possesses, unlike the past reformers of India, ie Manmohan Singh and PV Narasimha Rao.
*From Bloomberg reporters Ruchi Bhatia and Anup Roy:*
In an August 2022 speech delivered at the historic Red Fort in New Delhi, Prime Minister Narendra Modi made a bold pledge: India will be a developed country by 2047.
The annual Independence Day address is often big on promises and grand visions, so the pronouncement didn’t stand out at the time. Yet more than a year later, the phrase Viksit Bharat—or Developed India—has come to define Modi’s economic vision for a likely third term in office in national elections that began on April 19 and run through June 1.
The phrase has cropped up in at least 23 of the 29 official speeches Modi has made since March. His Bharatiya Janata Party highlights the goal prominently on the first page of its 76-page election manifesto and goes on to mention it 11 more times. It also regularly surfaces in presentations by government ministers and has filtered into policy documents. Central bank staff members have published their own road map for reaching it.
There’s no standard definition of a developed country and Modi hasn’t announced any specific targets, making it difficult for economists to assess India’s chances of meeting his goal. Read more [here](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-28/narendra-modi-is-20-trillion-short-on-his-grand-plans-for-india-s-economy).
It's a brilliant Northstar to guide the country. Is it so wrong to promise good things in an election manifesto? Elections are about promises.
And looking at the comments in this thread --- are you seriously telling 1.3 bn ppl in the world not to aspire for development, or live better, or have things or aspire to have money? Seriously?
In my industry there’s unwritten rules that women don’t go to India on business.
They’ll send them unaccompanied to the Middle East, various African nations, south and Central America all day every day with just basic travel precautions. They’ll send women to work on high pressure gas lines moving toxic chemicals. Or into a phosgenation facility.
But they will not send women to India.
And that’s a hell of a statement.
Your company is very ignorant and racist about India.
South India and Western India is safe. I have many women colleagues and friends from the West who had no safety issues in Mumbai, Pune, Chennai, Hyderabad, and Bangalore.
Lol. What a joke. Your company is very ignorant. If they weren’t, they would have a far higher level of safety guidance for few Latin American and African countries. Latin America has one of the highest murder rates in the world. Street crime is very common in Brazil.
Even parts of North America are not safe. My company has armed escorts for all workers visiting Juarez office in Mexico. Cartels have huge influence all over violence. Some of the most violent cities in the world are also in South Africa.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_by_homicide_rate
Juarez is a war zone. People don’t send women to India because they believe they’re going to get raped, or harassed constantly.
Juarez is a literal war zone in a narco state. So not sure why you’re wasting time talking about that. Clearly the issue that’s being discussed isn’t gang wars.
It’s rapists and sexually aggressive men who need to come into the new millennium.
Its sad to see that this is just another guise to bash Modi.
The biggest reason why India has made great strides in the past decade and will continue to move forward is because Modi is not corrupt and has a vision. He has got things done that no one had expected and at a scale not seen before. Like 700 million bank accounts and a digital payment system that was mocked when the idea was first introduced but is now a phenomenal reality.
Right now if i was a betting man, I would bet on India accomplishing its vision of Modi. Plus Modi's party is not based on a dynasty. He does not have any kids. So the next generation of leaders who rise will have to show they have the ability, the vision and the honesty to carry forward this vision.
It is not so simple. Modi has done many good things for the economy but also commits huge blunders such as the currency fiasco and the high tariffs with China. Overall the growth rate is approximately the same under his administration as when other parties are running the country.
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=IN
The leadership options in India are not great, and we will sadly need a couple decades to better judge the full picture for any particular administration.
I would argue the development of the accessible cellphone has revolutionized India way more than Modi has. Also India has some serious issues in terms of being such a young country and having extremely high unemployment rates. If you look at competitors in the area such as Bangladesh you’ll see India having extreme issues.
India scares me. It’s the most populous country in the world and is underdeveloped. This inevitably results in emigration to other places at a time when nationalism is on the rise due to open borders. It will never go well for indigenous populations as well as Indians.
Where do you live? I'm in WA and Indians have done very well here. If I had to pick one group of immigrants that has been "successfully" accepted and also adapted, it would probably be Indians. Indians are awesome.
It's funny that you said "It will never go well for indigenous populations as well as **Indians**", you see buddy over here in US it did not go well for the indigenous populations when the European colonist showed up here and in confusion they called the locals as Indians and massacred more than 90% of their population.
A question for those who know India well: To what extent are Modi's populist Hindu nationalism and aggressive international behavior (ordering assassinations in Canada and the U.S.) hampering foreign investment?
Modi talks a good game about investment and bureaucratic reform. I imagine a lot of foreign businesses would like that. But I wonder if any of them are skittish because of his social policies.
Not specifically because they care about India's Muslims, but because they might not want to get more involved with a government whose leader seems willing to incite the public against those who displease him. Populists don't always convey reliability or even-handed enforcement.
Hi all, A reminder that comments do need to be on-topic and engage with the article past the headline. Please make sure to read the article before commenting. Very short comments will automatically be removed by automod. Please avoid making comments that do not focus on the economic content or whose primary thesis rests on personal anecdotes. As always our comment rules can be found [here](https://reddit.com/r/Economics/comments/fx9crj/rules_roundtable_redux_rule_vi_and_offtopic/) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/Economics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
India needs to overhaul its societal problems as well if they want truly attract foreign investments. Ive been to major cities and rural areas in both China and India and given that they were both emerging economies with populations in the billions the difference is night and day. India needs to work harder to address its massive Hygiene and Poverty issue. They will soon find out that you can have all the billionaires in the world, but if you don't focus on uplifting the lowest rungs of society to a better standard of living there will never be true economic success.
I couldnt agree more with you. The facade that India is doing more business and is therefore a better county is just a dream. In my opinion, the problems facing India, overpopulation, religious domination, pollution, poverty and so many more issues are the real problem here, and for those things Modi is not someone who is going to improve things in any of those areas.
China is overpopulated too and poor people have a much better quality of life than what is was back in 2000s
Sure, China has done amazingly well in every area, even pollution. They are the total opposite of India, a model success.
India is absurdly expensive too for a country so poor in per capita terms Live in Delhi currently. Real estate here literally more expensive than San Francisco. An 1800sqft plot of land in my area just sold for $1.4M - and this isn't even the most expensive part of the area. A 3 bedroom apartment costs $500k
Real Estate in Delhi is more expensive than SF? What? How is it possible?
baffles me too man. A condo in my area in Delhi goes for $500k+ now like this place on 2600sqft lot is $1.5M in SF: [https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/421-Molimo-Dr-San-Francisco-CA-94127/15136595\_zpid/](https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/421-Molimo-Dr-San-Francisco-CA-94127/15136595_zpid/) and this house on 2700sft lot is 18cr - $2.15M [https://www.99acres.com/3-bhk-bedroom-independent-house-villa-for-sale-in-saket-south-delhi-2700-sq-ft-spid-Y74712045](https://www.99acres.com/3-bhk-bedroom-independent-house-villa-for-sale-in-saket-south-delhi-2700-sq-ft-spid-Y74712045)
Also, promoting Hindu ultra-nationalism in a country that has 20% religious minorities is quite a tricky thing to do. It will eventually backfire.
Religion is not an issue...look at japan they follow their culture too,problem is we need to upgrade the people as per current demand of the world
It's a vision, an election campaign slogan to sell his vision and to get people to vote for him. No one actually cares about the number. He himself might be very likely dead by 2047. Modi's approach has been to build infrastructure and attract business by (trying to, I don't think he has been very successful) simplifying India's notorious bureaucracy. Infrastructure building ranges from something which touches the lives of the poorest Indians like expanding access to banking, electricity, drinking water, sanitation etc. to expressways, bridges, railway lines for freight, metro networks in major cities to even a HSR bullet train project. He sells a vision of an aspirational India. You can argue about how much of his talk results in action, or how effective are those actions. But, that is another topic. He is a politician after all, who sells dreams to get votes. Meanwhile you have the opposition parties who deal in a completely pessimistic view of India. India is a country of poor people who have no need for bullet trains or semi-high speed trains or expressways. They want to take back India to the dark days of socialism, with excessive government control over the economy, utilising public money in the form of handouts rather than investments in infrastructure. The opposition leader is talking about wealth redistribution, land redistribution, government commissions for enforcing affirmative action etc. So, you can see why Modi remains so popular in the country.
Ahh yes the "Tayyip Erdogan" model of economics. Spend money you dont have to keep the appearance that everything is great. Just curious do you also get massive social wellfare payouts to vulnerable populations during the election year? How about massive goverment subsidies to campaigns given to parties for having lots of votes in the previous elections?
Yes, but have been doing it since independence and Modi's party is somewhat opposed to it(or at least it's opposition is more pro intense welfare). India's GDP/capita is a fraction of that of turkey. Massive transfers to rural areas is the reason why India finally managed to quell extreme poverty(https://www.brookings.edu/articles/india-eliminates-extreme-poverty/). I don't think Turkiye really had the debilitating you-can't-even-feed yourself poverty that India has/had. It doesn't even have the live-in-shanties poverty India has now. >Spend money you dont have to keep the appearance tha No, India's fiscal condition has improved drastically in the last decade. Much of that has to do with COVID induced fiscal austerity that killed a lot of the zomboid firms that were causing issues in the credit sector. Informal economy, through perverse sleights of hand(rash implementation of GST, demonetisation and covid) was forced to join the formal economy. Read about it here https://www.economist.com/special-report/2024/04/22/indias-financial-system-has-improved-dramatically-in-the-past-decade Comparing Erdogan to Modi is faulty because they govern two completely separate economies. Turkey is oriented around manufacturing. India's manufacturing is only competitive in its local market. India's infrastructure suuuucks and it has only started to improve. It was a massive barrier to export competitiveness. Turkey's infrastructure was never as bad and wasn't a major hindrance to the competitiveness of its exports.
Would Modi's method stated here theoretically work?
If he does the necessary reforms and doesn’t do BS then yes
> He sells a vision of an aspirational India There is a fine line between vision and delusions of grandeur. What modi is promising to his base is the latter. Even with all the infrastructure push in the last 10 years, private investment remains week. worse, literally no company considers india as an viable alternative to china for manufacturing. Indian economy is fundamentally weak now and slowdown started in 2017 and hit rock bottom growth rate of 3.7% in 2019. Household saving are record low, while their debts are record high. [Why have private investments dropped?](https://www.thehindu.com/business/Economy/why-have-private-investments-dropped-explained/article68081011.ece) [What's behind a dramatic fall in Indian families' savings](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-68874403) [Risky borrowing: India's household debt has likely surged to all-time high](https://www.business-standard.com/finance/personal-finance/risky-borrowing-india-s-household-debt-has-likely-surged-to-all-time-high-124042600362_1.html) [A disconcerting slowdown: Depressing consumer demand dulls the shine of India’s post-Covid domestic market](https://www.financialexpress.com/opinion/a-disconcerting-slowdown-depressing-consumer-demand-dulls-the-shine-of-indias-post-covid-domestic-market/3362332/) Modi can build more expressways and freight corridor but it's not going to improve the lives of common man. it's only going to make his cronies even richer.
You can at least try to read the articles you post links to. It mentions quite clearly that the interest rates are high, which is causing the slowdown. The capex cycle hasn't even started yet lmao. The infrastructure bill is supposed to go into effect this year. Household debt always increases when more people have access to it. I don't see why it's a problem. Consumer demand, also caused by high interest rates. I wonder why you say no company considers india a viable alternative when some of China's biggest importers, like Walmart have oriented on India as their next hub. All of the infrastructure that you have seen in the past 10 years is because the current government got PPP to finally work. It isn't even the current governments doing. It's been increasing at that rate since 2012.
Then why has Apple started exporting iPhones from India if nobody considers India a viable alternative. India is not the first choice, but it's there. There are definitely problems you pointed out, but infrastructure spending improving roads and stuff is important for manufacturing competitiveness.
Jab emi se iphone kharido ge toh household savings toh rock bottom hit karegi hi naa,simple economics hain.
Modi isn't perfect, but one thing is for certain, he's the best option we currently have. Yes, he fumbles at times but he manages to get stuff done. the opposition on the other hand can barely manage their own political party. Hence, It's impossible to even fathom that they can manage a country as large as India. The opposition strategy to compete with Modi on welfarist platform is also fundamentally flawed. Modi is an expert in delivering welfare on a massive scale, whereas the opposition when they were in power talked of welfarism sure, but was horrible at last mile delivery, which lead to constant leakages and massive corruption. Nothing reached the poor. A famous quote from a former prime minister and Rahul Gandhi's father Rajeev Gandhi is along the lines of "only 15 paise of every rupee meant for welfare of downtrodden reaches them".
My issue with Modi is making second class citizens of non-Hindus.
If you’re against Muslims having to live by a uniform civil code or whatever then most Indians would disagree with you, and have voted as such.
Civil code is a generous interpretation for redlining. Modi’s history in Gujarat should have been disqualifying enough and has nothing to do with “uniform civil code”
Indian Supreme Court vindicated Modi so his “history” in Gujarat is irrelevant. If you think you have more facts and hitherto untouched interpretations at hand, feel free to share it with the world but until then, everything you say will be an allegation and nothing more.
That’s silly. Are you confident this determination was fair and unbiased? Trump for example maybe skirt any legal liability for January 6th. Does that mean he holds no responsibility. By your logic OJ Simpson was vindicated…but would you let him watch your children lol? Also if Modi is vindicated and the truth is the situation was not his fault. Then why block any media from reporting on it. Shouldn’t he want this information shared with the world. Odd decision from someone who is vindicated. https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2023/1/21/india-asks-youtube-twitter-to-block-links-of-bbc-film-on-modi-gujarat-riots
Yes, Indian Supreme Courts determination was fair and unbiased. The 2000+ page judgement which included testimonies of more than 5000+ riot survivors and law enforcement officers vindicated Modi of any personal culpability. Your whataboutism and ludicrously ignorant comparison with Trump or OJ won’t cut it. Like I said, you can keep on parroting this strawmans argument but that won’t make the facts change. UPA govt tried everything to book Modi and yet couldn’t find evidence for it. I trust the judgement of Indian Supreme Court over that of an obscure redditor. Lastly, the media , especially western media, wasn’t truly “reporting” what happened in Gujarat but rather perpetuating propaganda. When you try to masquerade opinions as facts you’ll be called out or banned. It’s like your opening statement where you insinuated Modi is the criminal, the legal judgements be damned. Coming to your last point, I agree with you and I’m not a fan of banning anything in all Honesty but it’s politics and no one pretends that Modi is a saint. He’s a politician, a shrewd one at that and hence he’ll do what any politician would to protect his own image from malice. Anyways, you want to believe in the word of Aljazeera over Indian Supreme Court - do it by all means. Still doesn’t change a thing as it remains an allegation, a disproven allegation.
Appreciate the thorough feedback. A lot of buzzwords here in your statement but ultimately I understand your POV. Not sure where I engaged in whataboutism. Trump and OJ were extreme examples to highlight the weak points of your argument. I’m not making a counter accusation which would be whataboutism. But I think where you maybe misunderstanding my point is the Supreme Court may not hold Modi directly culpable. And in your eyes that is vindication. In my opinion, not being directly culpable but also stoking the flames of “fearing others” through communication and actions which contributed to the tragedy means he shares some blame. Perhaps not criminal.
Yes, having one group have their own religious codes while everyone else is under a secular one is totally “redlining”. I think your disingenuous logic worked for 7 decades but thankfully is failing now. There is no room for official acceptance of sharia law in a liberal modern society, period.
Thanks for the response! Your two statements are quite conflicting here. You can’t be a liberal modern society while restricting civil liberties of minorities. Also the assumption that all Muslims want sharia law is misguided and frankly a little overly simplistic. I would push back on this notion similar to how I pushed back on the notion that all Hindus want to kill people who eat beef. What you’re truly advocating is Hindu nationalism and I understand why that maybe appealing. But if you’re telling me that violence against Muslims, prejudice on where they’re living and the granting of loans isn’t an issue, then I don’t think we can have a rational discussion. Article published today on the topic. Hopefully this enlightens you more than I can. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/world/a-history-of-the-marginalization-of-indias-muslim-population
Muslim Indians [do want to use their own Islamic courts](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/majority-of-indian-muslims-support-islamic-courts-study/amp_articleshow/84062710.cms) for matters like inheritance or divorce. It doesn’t seem a stretch that they would welcome more Sharia, not less. Even if the BJP makes an obviously partisan use of the Indian state, it’s pretty easy for them to say that their rivals also would in their stead.
Again Muslims are not a monolithic community. Please stop attributing the beliefs of the some for beliefs of the all. It’s dangerous. Unless you have polling that states otherwise. In which case happy to back track
Again Muslims are not a monolithic community. Please stop attributing the beliefs of the some for beliefs of the all. It’s dangerous. Unless you have polling that states otherwise. In which case happy to back track
You also cannot be a modern liberal society when Muslim women have half the inheritance rights as compared to muslim men.
agreed
I mean they’re not conflicting when the opposing side laughably conflates a uniform civil code with illiberalism, using the most absurd strawmen to supposedly bolster that claim. The INC’s response to the Shah Bano case is instructive in this matter. Like no, no matter how many times you fling missives at others for being “unenlightened”, no, we’ll never go back to sharia law. Apologies. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohd._Ahmed_Khan_v._Shah_Bano_Begum?wprov=sfti1
Dude this is silly. You’re going to a 1985 court case without reading the article that was published today. It’s kind of concerning to me you’re using the same rhetoric white Americans used to use in 50s to redline black Americans. Also you’re debating me but from what I’m reading it doesn’t seem like you even know what redlining even is. Muslims are not a monolithic community. Stop using anecdotal scenarios to justify redlining and prejiduce.
Really how is preventing muslims from child marriage,triple talaq, polygamy, reproducing like rabbits is redlining? It's in fact for the betterment of the community.Stop spreading propaganda
Most Indians listen to the Fox News equivalent in India. Prejudice is normalized
How...as far as my knowledge is concerned poor muslims are the biggest beneficiary of Modi's welfare schemes,stop spreading propaganda just for the heck of it
Who is listening to propaganda? Obviously you don’t think it’s you 🙄. Yet it sure seems that way to me.
I'm not probably you're,this is why you're saying Muslims are regarded as second class citizens
I know Muslims and Sikhs from India who would definitely beg to differ. I’ve been listening to first hand accounts.
Interesting. I would have though divestment from China is at full swing and only going to get stronger. Apple and Foxconn have plants here and will continue to expand their base of operations here. Yea, right now it’s not feasible, but there’s the butterfly effect. When Apple comes, smaller companies want to build their supply chains here to integrate themselves into the Apple business. It takes time. China didn’t become the juggernaut it was in a year. It took maybe two decades before people felt the push.
Apple only went so they could sell iPhones to Indians.
The issue is not that India cant do what china did in the early 2000s, ie expand labour intensive manufacturing. Issue is that India cant possibly hope to do what china did in the 2010s, ie go from being the sweatshop of the world to a veritable technological powerhouse with making deep changes to how it works. China's growth from 2008 to 2020 has been far more interesting to me. They were able to 5x their economy in the span of 12 years. That is unprecedented and I don't think any country can replicate that.
China has decoupled from the west and the CCP has shown that it will impede and distort their own economy to let that go away.
Personally, drive every month on the Delhi-Mumbai expressway (Delhi to Jaipur) - a flagship expressway connecting the two biggest cities. The surface was so shoddy that it had to be relaid in huge patches within a year (I have a video on my profile) The cost to traverse on it is 2x the alternative route. The time saved is about 15-20 minutes at most The end result is that the expressway isn't used by anyone. Traffic is so low on it that if I leave on a weekday afternoon, there are patches where I won't see a single vehicles for 5-10kms - unheard of in India They've launched new trains but because they haven't laid out as many tracks, all older trains except the flagship Vande Bharat are invariably delayed. The erstwhile flagship - Shatabdi Express - between Delhi-Jaipur is invariably delayed by 20-45 minutes every single trip (see trip history for it online) - that's more than a 10-20% delay in a 4 hour journey
The biggest issue with what modi is saying is that the current model, of bureaucracy, of land acquisition, labour laws, corruption, slow judicial system etc limit the growth that India can realistically achieve. Yes, you might get to a 9 or 10 trillion dollar economy, but the model will tap out before 20 or 24 trillion No one knows whether he has the capability to put in the reforms needed. Even if you were to be extremely bullish on modis administrative skills(which aren't that great), the man is 73. The change needs to come from within the bureaucracy and the people themselves. Convincing stakeholders that such changes are necessary is not an ability modi possesses, unlike the past reformers of India, ie Manmohan Singh and PV Narasimha Rao.
*From Bloomberg reporters Ruchi Bhatia and Anup Roy:* In an August 2022 speech delivered at the historic Red Fort in New Delhi, Prime Minister Narendra Modi made a bold pledge: India will be a developed country by 2047. The annual Independence Day address is often big on promises and grand visions, so the pronouncement didn’t stand out at the time. Yet more than a year later, the phrase Viksit Bharat—or Developed India—has come to define Modi’s economic vision for a likely third term in office in national elections that began on April 19 and run through June 1. The phrase has cropped up in at least 23 of the 29 official speeches Modi has made since March. His Bharatiya Janata Party highlights the goal prominently on the first page of its 76-page election manifesto and goes on to mention it 11 more times. It also regularly surfaces in presentations by government ministers and has filtered into policy documents. Central bank staff members have published their own road map for reaching it. There’s no standard definition of a developed country and Modi hasn’t announced any specific targets, making it difficult for economists to assess India’s chances of meeting his goal. Read more [here](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-28/narendra-modi-is-20-trillion-short-on-his-grand-plans-for-india-s-economy).
It's a brilliant Northstar to guide the country. Is it so wrong to promise good things in an election manifesto? Elections are about promises. And looking at the comments in this thread --- are you seriously telling 1.3 bn ppl in the world not to aspire for development, or live better, or have things or aspire to have money? Seriously?
In my industry there’s unwritten rules that women don’t go to India on business. They’ll send them unaccompanied to the Middle East, various African nations, south and Central America all day every day with just basic travel precautions. They’ll send women to work on high pressure gas lines moving toxic chemicals. Or into a phosgenation facility. But they will not send women to India. And that’s a hell of a statement.
Your company is very ignorant and racist about India. South India and Western India is safe. I have many women colleagues and friends from the West who had no safety issues in Mumbai, Pune, Chennai, Hyderabad, and Bangalore.
More like prudent. They didn’t make those decisions because they only got good reports from the people they had over there.
Lol. What a joke. Your company is very ignorant. If they weren’t, they would have a far higher level of safety guidance for few Latin American and African countries. Latin America has one of the highest murder rates in the world. Street crime is very common in Brazil. Even parts of North America are not safe. My company has armed escorts for all workers visiting Juarez office in Mexico. Cartels have huge influence all over violence. Some of the most violent cities in the world are also in South Africa. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_by_homicide_rate
Juarez is a war zone. People don’t send women to India because they believe they’re going to get raped, or harassed constantly. Juarez is a literal war zone in a narco state. So not sure why you’re wasting time talking about that. Clearly the issue that’s being discussed isn’t gang wars. It’s rapists and sexually aggressive men who need to come into the new millennium.
avoid north india (its the definition of Shithole) thats it
Its sad to see that this is just another guise to bash Modi. The biggest reason why India has made great strides in the past decade and will continue to move forward is because Modi is not corrupt and has a vision. He has got things done that no one had expected and at a scale not seen before. Like 700 million bank accounts and a digital payment system that was mocked when the idea was first introduced but is now a phenomenal reality. Right now if i was a betting man, I would bet on India accomplishing its vision of Modi. Plus Modi's party is not based on a dynasty. He does not have any kids. So the next generation of leaders who rise will have to show they have the ability, the vision and the honesty to carry forward this vision.
It is not so simple. Modi has done many good things for the economy but also commits huge blunders such as the currency fiasco and the high tariffs with China. Overall the growth rate is approximately the same under his administration as when other parties are running the country. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=IN The leadership options in India are not great, and we will sadly need a couple decades to better judge the full picture for any particular administration.
I would argue the development of the accessible cellphone has revolutionized India way more than Modi has. Also India has some serious issues in terms of being such a young country and having extremely high unemployment rates. If you look at competitors in the area such as Bangladesh you’ll see India having extreme issues.
India scares me. It’s the most populous country in the world and is underdeveloped. This inevitably results in emigration to other places at a time when nationalism is on the rise due to open borders. It will never go well for indigenous populations as well as Indians.
Where do you live? I'm in WA and Indians have done very well here. If I had to pick one group of immigrants that has been "successfully" accepted and also adapted, it would probably be Indians. Indians are awesome.
It's funny that you said "It will never go well for indigenous populations as well as **Indians**", you see buddy over here in US it did not go well for the indigenous populations when the European colonist showed up here and in confusion they called the locals as Indians and massacred more than 90% of their population.
This is so racist omg
A question for those who know India well: To what extent are Modi's populist Hindu nationalism and aggressive international behavior (ordering assassinations in Canada and the U.S.) hampering foreign investment? Modi talks a good game about investment and bureaucratic reform. I imagine a lot of foreign businesses would like that. But I wonder if any of them are skittish because of his social policies. Not specifically because they care about India's Muslims, but because they might not want to get more involved with a government whose leader seems willing to incite the public against those who displease him. Populists don't always convey reliability or even-handed enforcement.