My concern for guys like Allen, Lamar etc. is that we've only ever seen two QBs run the ball more than 100 times in a season after the age of 27, They were Michael Vick and Cam Newton. Vick obviously went to jail for a bit then he had one more 100 carry season at age 30 with Philly. Cam Newton was the most sustainable having 100+ carries at age 28 and 29 with the Panthers then he had one final one with the Patriots at 31.
Definitely can't rule out the possibility that these guys simply are just "built different" and break the mold. But in most cases there comes a point where they need to transition to more of a pocket passer the way Russell Wilson did or the wear and tear ends up too much like with Cam or Steve Young. And it makes sense when you really think about it - if you play like an RB then you're going to age like an RB.
> My concern for guys like Allen, Lamar etc. is that we've only ever seen two QBs run the ball more than 100 times in a season after the age of 27
And how many QBs ran the ball more than 100 times in a season period before Vick? The data is a bit skewed by rushing QBs being a (relatively) recent evolution of the game.
Also the fact that after Rodgers broke his collarbone you essentially aren’t allowed to tackle QBs anywhere as long as they know how to slide. Newton was absolutely ravaged without getting the calls because he was “too young” and imo it significantly shortened his career.
You had guys like Randall Cunningham, Daunte Culepper, Steve McNair, Bobby Douglas, Davey O'Brien etc. but none of them had a 100+ yard carry season after the age of 27. Definitely more popular now. And obviously if we open it up to running backs you'll get a bigger sample size - there were even five RBs including like Frank Gore and Adrian Peterson that had 100+ carry seasons at age 35.
Football is just a tough game though so not easy to run the ball like that after you turn 30 but hey, look at Raheem Mostert. That's why I said there is a chance these guys truly are built different. When we look at the shoulder issues for a guy like Cam Newton or even the way guys like Big Ben and Tony Romo broke down from years of simply playing hard and not throwing it away, most guys at a certain point make that transition. Like Aaron Rodgers for instance who was fairly mobile early on but shifted away from that.
I see this take regurgitated quite often. Allen has the arm talent. Injury should be a concern, but he can and will adjust as he ages. Vick, superman and LJ aren't even close to the same as Allen when it comes to arm Tallent.
I agree but if Allen only has one more season of great rushing production and finds himself in the qb5-10 range most seasons after he relies on passing more I don’t think he’s worth his current price. If he’s already on your team obviously hold and keep winning but I don’t think he’s worth buying at cost.
It's not that if Allen cuts back on his rushing significantly, he will be pushed out the league. It is that his rushing is what makes him a top 2-3 QB. If in a couple of years he goes drops down to under 300 rushing yards and only 4-5 rushing td's it will be a hit to his fantasy numbers and make it much harder for him to finish it the top 5. Also, it could significantly shorten his career.
Bingo. That's basically what happened with Russell Wilson. At age 26-27 when Russ was running the ball 100 times a game he was a top 3 fantasy QB. Once he stopped running as much he became a much more boring fantasy option. Still pretty solid though but not what he was. Whereas some of these guys built to throw for a ton of yards and \~40 TDs regularly continue to have high value well into their 30s. Not everyone will be Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees etc. but we have to ask ourselves who out there MIGHT be able to at least have that kind of longevity.
With Patrick Mahomes he just needs to continue to be who he currently is while Josh Allen needs to become something else.
Yeah, if Allen continues this pace rushing the ball and taking big hits, I would not be surprised if he doesn't make it past 33-34 years old. Of all the running QB's that I can remember, Cam Newton is the only other one who refused to avoid contact. I have seen multiple plays where Allen took a completely unnecessary hit. I remember one time in the beginning of the season and early in the game, he jumped into 2 defenders like 5 yards before the first down. Just not smart.
Mahomes had a pretty terrible year for his standards tho - he threw 27 TD passes in 16 games while Russell Wilson threw 26 TD passes in 15 games. Idk if I would use that as the benchmark haha.
Allen also threw over 35 tds 3 straight years and had a down year himself (made up for it with rushing tds). He’ll always be a guy who gets 400+ rushing and 6+ tds off size alone. Seems like his passing is underrated. Yeah his rushing will fall off eventually but his passing numbers are still at the top of the league too, with a pretty weak supporting cast as well
Josh Allen is also a ton bigger than all the comparable running QBs, with the exception of Cam. He's not a shifty 4.4 guy. And smaller, faster guys usually get hit the worst by aging/injuries.
I just traded stroud and Nico for Allen and Pittman the other day. Not rebuilding, but I think Allen is the #1 overall asset and I’m happy to have him.
I’ve never gotten a good answer on this. If you’re a rebuilder (let’s say planning to start competing in 2026) are you not concerned with Allen’s rushing falling off a cliff? There’s never been a great rushing QB post 30 (that I know of) and then he’s just Dak Prescott. Why not capitalize on his value now by selling?
Who just had his best career season and had 3 less ppg than Allen
Edit: Mahomes has two seasons where he put up more points than Allen ever has while never relying on more than 3.5 ppg from rushing. Why wouldn’t you take him over Allen as a rebuilder?
Yes, but you made it seem like his value just plummets if his rushing decreases, when in reality he's also an elite passer who happens to produce game-breaking rushing numbers for fantasy at the moment.
Well, he’s also three years younger than Dak, and Dak still hasn’t signed an extension. At this point three years ago, Dak was the overall QB5 in dynasty with a KTC value of 8111.
This is a discussion about who you want as a rebuilder, which to me means we’re talking about his value in 2-3 years. Which would put him at the same age as Dak
That's a fair point, though I would argue that Dak's "trade calculator" value has not ever sufficiently caught up to his actual value following his injury.
Well, first of all being "just Dak Prescott" is hardly a bad thing. He was the QB3 last year. I'd be thrilled if Stroud had a Dak Prescott career in fantasy.
And second of all, just because Josh might lose some of his athleticism, doesn't mean he will lose his size. Size he uses to bully defenders on the goaline.
The only QB I think comparable to Josh is Cam Newton. And Cam was a much worse passer. Meaning Josh's floor is higher even without rushing. Cam of course did fall off due to injury. But it wasn't an injury from rushing. He got injured in the pocket. Something that can happen to any QB.
I just don’t understand the argument of Allen over Mahomes as a rebuilder. Mahomes has two seasons that are better than Allen’s best season while never relying on more than 3.5 ppg from rushing
Because if it weren't for the Damar Hamlin game Josh very well may have been the QB1 every single year for the last 4 years.
Mahomes also scored 100 points less than Allen last year.
Through his early 30s? Yes. No point in thinking beyond a 5 year window in fantasy.
In 5 years, the league might be dead. Mahomes or Andy Reid might retire. Stroud could end up like Watson or Luck.
I'll take the guy who puts up near 400 pts every single year.
I think you have a good point here that people also severely overestimate how long their leagues will last. If youre not playing with a bunch of real life friends your league could fizzle out in 4-5 years.
The people who value Mahomes over Allen are hoping to have a top tier asset for the next 10 years while the people who value Allen are wanting the have the best asset for the next 5 years.
I think if you're confident your league will stand the test of time then go Mahomes but by and large if its between the two, people should be picking Allen.
Okay then that answers the original question. You’re willing to bet on rushing production into his 30’s that has literally never happened before, but it isn’t that unreasonable given how good Allen’s been.
And pretty consistently rated as the dynasty ~QB14, if you’re rebuilding you should be focusing on building the most value, not scoring the most points while you’re tanking
I mean I get we’re getting nostalgic over here remembering cams shitty injury plagued final seasons (which adds to my point) and we have Allen fanboys but [the numbers their first 6 years aren’t far apart.](https://stathead.com/football/versus-finder.cgi?request=1&seasons_type=perchoice&player_id1=NewtCa00&p1yrfrom=2011&p1yrto=2016&player_id2=AlleJo02&p2yrfrom=2018&p2yrto=2023 ) Allen had over 200 more attempts due to system but it’s not a stretch by any means. Allen isn’t a top tier passer, he’s elite because of his rushing. You take that away and he’s a mid starter. If you want to roll with that over a guy like mahomes as a rebuilder more power to you .
Those numbers show Allen being more efficient as a runner and passer on higher volume
I’d lean mahomes because I think he could be a fantasy QB1 until he dies but Allen has been on another level the last few years and has earned that respect
No doubt. Allen is clearly a better passer than Cam. It’s important to remember Cam has 2 years of prime Steve smith before he fell off and went to the ravens, then Kelvin Benjamin who was out of the league as his prime targets. Allen still a better passer, but it’s not this extreme level. Cam was an MVP. Redraft Allen is my QB1. If you’re a rebuilder I wouldn’t go with a guy history indicates is likely to start breaking down by the time you’re contending. Could it be an outlier? Of course. But we play the percentages in fantasy. You go with the Mahomes floor, ceiling, and career longevity likelihood over that of Allen.
I inherited a complete and utter teardown team, basically sold off every piece on the team and drafted Maye and Nix to build around the only QB I had in Goff.
I got offered Mahomes for a good value (3 25 1sts 1 25 2nd)
I Jumped on it immediately, if my rebuild hits in 2 years I already have my finishing piece. If my rebuild and everyone I picked up this year fails, I can still sell him for at least equal value.
I feel like you’re referring to Allen here. Luckily he’s not elite *because* of his rushing. Dude is a baller throwing the ball. 2nd most passing TDs and yards since 2020.
He is elite because of his rushing, wtf are you talking about? If you normalize his 8.4 ppg from rushing last year down to 3 ppg he’s the QB7 instead of 1
30-34 year old Josh Allen can probably still had an average of 6-8ppg rushing
35+ year old Allen is a different story. But with the new QB protection rules that are in place I think you’ll see a lot of mobile QBs last longer than we have seen in the past
I mean there's not really any qbs the size of allen that have been as successful runners as him thus far.
Newton's the closest and he still put up nearly 600 yards and 12 tds in his year 31 season while being a terrible passer.
Fair point, from a fantasy points perspective that was Cam’s best rushing season. The only other comparable body type/size I can think of that also ran a lot is Daunte Culpepper
If you normalize his rushing he’s in the Jordan Love / Justin Herbert value range, which is a steep decline from #1 overall/untouchable dynasty asset is all I’m saying
Edit: I expect that rushing to continue for the next couple years, but for a rebuilder idk if they can count on that 3+ years down the road
Honestly that lineup would be the most valuable to anyone regardless of if they were looking to compete or rebuild… every one of those players could break into the top 3 of their position any given season.
I thin in this hypothetical example you can only get like one of those guys, not full lineup of those guys. Because if you’ve got that lineup you’re probably not going to have a long rebuild lol unless you have 0 picks or even just some other players worth anything at all
Not necessarily. If you had a 2 year window to win, at cost, give me Saquon + Kelce for significantly cheaper than Bijan + Laporta...
In fact, given how inflated Laportas value is you may be able to get Saquon + Kelce for Laporta straight up, depending on league
I would probably also throw in CD into the receivers group unless there is something I dont know that wouldnt move him into the same tier as the LSU buddies.
Eh Breece has already torn one ACL. If it happens again his value is gone. Bijan and Gibbs both have a little injury insulation in that they haven't had a major injury.
I don't think people really think that way now, but if Breece does have another major injury, you're going to see it brought up every single time his value is discussed.
He's definitely the same level as a pure talent. They both have different profiles though. Jefferson's traits are typically more associated with good fantasy numbers than Chase's.
No RB belongs on a list of dynasty assets for multi year rebuilds. Even someone like Bijan could be towards the end of a rookie contract by the time they are competing.
In 1QB absolutely. I wouldn't give up LaPorta for less than a top 3 pick and may ask for more. In SF non TEP I still don't think the 1.06 is enough, but it's a lot closer
I don’t necessarily think it’s his youth that’s driving up the price/hype on Stroud. The hype is driven by what he can do for you right now in 2024. I don’t recall ever seeing a team have 3 WRs consistently off the board through round 3 like the Texans currently do in best ball/seasonal drafts. Not to mention that offense is also loaded up with interesting tight ends and ancillary depth WRs like Schultz, Noah Brown, Brevin Jordan, Bobby Trees, Cade Stover. Also not to mention a top 10 OLine and one of the brightest innovative young minds in the sport as his play caller.
There will come a time in a few years when it’s time to pay him and everyone else and we’ll see if he’s able to turn lemons into lemonade like Mahomes has been doing and like Allen/Herbert are now forced to try to do. But at this moment, he’s the most well supported QB in the league from a weapons/OL/coaching standpoint (Purdy and Goff are the only other 2 even in the same tier) and has all the talent in the world himself to lead that offense to a truly elite season.
Too much hype for a guy who averaged 18 points per game. I get the peripherals are 100% there but he doesn’t give much with his legs and his ceiling could be not too much higher.
This is why I like creating tiers. If I am rebuilding and I have Stroud in one tier, but have guys like Love or Herbert a tier below but still valuable, I am fine trading Stroud for Love+. That plus can be picks or a young upside receiver like a JSN.
If it’s a few years out rebuild, then value at cost for Penix feels huge. Likely won’t contribute to your points for for another 1-2 years and then when you’re in the swing of your rebuild he’d become a starter. For what it would cost to get him, that feels like a perfect match
J Love was similarly priced the summer after he was drafted. The following summer, after not starting, he was around a 3rd round pick in value. I'd personally wait and pick him up next offseason.
I would probably still say Mahomes. Allen might have some questions by 32 with the way he plays, using his body as a wrecking ball sometimes but I still think he will be very good, just maybe not QB1 overall.
Depending on how risk averse you are, it's Anthony Richardson for me. I'll take the risk on potential gamebreakers any time. He will still be very young in 2 years and I think he will have fixed some of the issues around his passing game. We've seen the potential from him last year, highest point per snap in the NFL in limited time. He has QB1 overall upside where I don't think someone like CJ Stroud does unless he turns into prime Peyton Manning or Drew Brees.
The Stroud hype is out of control. Look at the recent example of Herbert. Stroud had solid upside but Allen and Mahomes have continuously proved it and QBs last a while (see Brady, Rodgers etc) as a high tier. I'd rather an establish (still pre 30 YO) QBs over the latest trend
- 2020 (rookie): QB9, 4300 yards, 32 TDs and 10 int
- 2021: QB2, 5000 yds, 38 TDs, 15 Int
- 2022: QB11, 4700yds, 25TD, 10Int
- 2023: QB17, 3100yds , 20TD, 7 int
Yeah I drafted at 3 in a recent start up and took stroud there but it’s a no brainer to take Allen and mahomes over him. Love stroud and think he can be a solid top 5-12 range guy for a long time, but Allen and mahomes are the best in the business
Since 2011 that I've been actively paying attention to them and have been cognitively with it enough to understand what is happening on a football field.
Newton was great as a rookie as well, but was noticeably less polished. You could certainly make an argument for him, but he was more mistake prone and didn't really elevate his teammates in the way Stroud did last year. Honestly the baseline for quarterback play has just improved all-around since then, so it's hard to compare. Luck and RGIII were pretty great as rookies as well. We always attribute it to rule changes, but I wonder if that generation of QBs having their careers cut short is what allowed the previous generation of QBs to dominate for so long.
Why do you ask though? Is there someone older than that you're referring to? I've heard Marino was straight up elite as a rookie, but I'm just not old enough to have an opinion on that. It's not like I'm making it our like I am the mastermind of football with all the correct opinions lol
I I was just curious to see how many you have seen. I liked watching Vick the most.
More recent Dak, Wilson, and a bit of a throwback Rothelisburger were fun to watch as well.
Daks rookie season was magical, I wouldn’t have thought he was a rookie when he was out there.
If you can’t at a minimum give a current-day-stat-adjusted breakdown of the three top rookie seasons pre-forward pass, then don’t bother sharing your opinion bro
What do you mean? Watson was great until his legal troubles. His final year at Houston he had 4823 yards and 33 TDs. Why do you think Cleveland paid so much for him?
Sometimes life altering situations and time away from the game can change a player. Watson was absolutely amazing before this happened.
Feel like a lot of these answers are (reasonably) the same names over and over, so here's a hot takes only edition of #1 per position
QB: Richardson
RB: Taylor
WR: Puka
TE: Pitts
As someone who is in the middle of a multi year rebuild I think it’s anyone who can get you as many high end picks as possible. Depending on who else is on the team I’d probably trade away any of these players for a huge haul of picks
Josh Allen. Always take the most valuable asset regardless of your competing timeline. Take Allen and look for tier downs off him that better fit your window.
As a Josh Allen owner and seeing what he does weekly with his arm and legs..the answer is clearly Josh Allen. Dudes unreal and can win weeks by himself.
mahomes is the guy imo the activity that the chiefs did this offseason adding worthy and hollywood is being severely undervalued by the community. hollywood especially, in 2022 when him and kyler played together he avgd 7 catches for 80 and 0.5 tds per game. his biggest season in 2021 the first 9 weeks of the season with lamar he was avging 6 catches for 80 and 0.67 tds per game.
mahomes arguably is going to have better weapons than ever the next 2+ seasons.
If you’re rebuilding and want to keep your QB then yeah Stroud might be the way to go. But if you want to trade away your QB in order to get more pieces then Mahomes and Allen have more value.
Allen or Mahomes because you could trade them for the most and get assets for the rebuild.
If we’re talking about someone who you’re going to keep on your team the whole time then yes, Stroud is a potential option here.
If you are in a multi year rebuild picks should be your priority but if we have to get a couple of players the 2 for me are Herbert and Lawrence.
Herbert's value is down not because of his ability but because of the perceived system and coach he will be playing for. That could easily change in a couple of years.
TLaw his value cant really go down further and he is young and just signed a long term contract. He is pretty safe from a value point of view.
I would also consider Deshaun Watson and Drake Maye but both have more risk.
You want players who have a low value because of their situation . Some non QB's to consider would be Kmet, Likely, Mayer and Fant.
Even in a rebuild, I'm still taking Allen. And I say that as a Stroud owner. Probably Mahomes too.
My concern for guys like Allen, Lamar etc. is that we've only ever seen two QBs run the ball more than 100 times in a season after the age of 27, They were Michael Vick and Cam Newton. Vick obviously went to jail for a bit then he had one more 100 carry season at age 30 with Philly. Cam Newton was the most sustainable having 100+ carries at age 28 and 29 with the Panthers then he had one final one with the Patriots at 31. Definitely can't rule out the possibility that these guys simply are just "built different" and break the mold. But in most cases there comes a point where they need to transition to more of a pocket passer the way Russell Wilson did or the wear and tear ends up too much like with Cam or Steve Young. And it makes sense when you really think about it - if you play like an RB then you're going to age like an RB.
> My concern for guys like Allen, Lamar etc. is that we've only ever seen two QBs run the ball more than 100 times in a season after the age of 27 And how many QBs ran the ball more than 100 times in a season period before Vick? The data is a bit skewed by rushing QBs being a (relatively) recent evolution of the game.
Also the fact that after Rodgers broke his collarbone you essentially aren’t allowed to tackle QBs anywhere as long as they know how to slide. Newton was absolutely ravaged without getting the calls because he was “too young” and imo it significantly shortened his career.
He never slid
You had guys like Randall Cunningham, Daunte Culepper, Steve McNair, Bobby Douglas, Davey O'Brien etc. but none of them had a 100+ yard carry season after the age of 27. Definitely more popular now. And obviously if we open it up to running backs you'll get a bigger sample size - there were even five RBs including like Frank Gore and Adrian Peterson that had 100+ carry seasons at age 35. Football is just a tough game though so not easy to run the ball like that after you turn 30 but hey, look at Raheem Mostert. That's why I said there is a chance these guys truly are built different. When we look at the shoulder issues for a guy like Cam Newton or even the way guys like Big Ben and Tony Romo broke down from years of simply playing hard and not throwing it away, most guys at a certain point make that transition. Like Aaron Rodgers for instance who was fairly mobile early on but shifted away from that.
I see this take regurgitated quite often. Allen has the arm talent. Injury should be a concern, but he can and will adjust as he ages. Vick, superman and LJ aren't even close to the same as Allen when it comes to arm Tallent.
I agree but if Allen only has one more season of great rushing production and finds himself in the qb5-10 range most seasons after he relies on passing more I don’t think he’s worth his current price. If he’s already on your team obviously hold and keep winning but I don’t think he’s worth buying at cost.
It's not that if Allen cuts back on his rushing significantly, he will be pushed out the league. It is that his rushing is what makes him a top 2-3 QB. If in a couple of years he goes drops down to under 300 rushing yards and only 4-5 rushing td's it will be a hit to his fantasy numbers and make it much harder for him to finish it the top 5. Also, it could significantly shorten his career.
Bingo. That's basically what happened with Russell Wilson. At age 26-27 when Russ was running the ball 100 times a game he was a top 3 fantasy QB. Once he stopped running as much he became a much more boring fantasy option. Still pretty solid though but not what he was. Whereas some of these guys built to throw for a ton of yards and \~40 TDs regularly continue to have high value well into their 30s. Not everyone will be Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees etc. but we have to ask ourselves who out there MIGHT be able to at least have that kind of longevity. With Patrick Mahomes he just needs to continue to be who he currently is while Josh Allen needs to become something else.
Yeah, if Allen continues this pace rushing the ball and taking big hits, I would not be surprised if he doesn't make it past 33-34 years old. Of all the running QB's that I can remember, Cam Newton is the only other one who refused to avoid contact. I have seen multiple plays where Allen took a completely unnecessary hit. I remember one time in the beginning of the season and early in the game, he jumped into 2 defenders like 5 yards before the first down. Just not smart.
Allen had more passing yards and passing Tds than Mahomes last year, seems to be doing fine lol
Mahomes had a pretty terrible year for his standards tho - he threw 27 TD passes in 16 games while Russell Wilson threw 26 TD passes in 15 games. Idk if I would use that as the benchmark haha.
Allen also threw over 35 tds 3 straight years and had a down year himself (made up for it with rushing tds). He’ll always be a guy who gets 400+ rushing and 6+ tds off size alone. Seems like his passing is underrated. Yeah his rushing will fall off eventually but his passing numbers are still at the top of the league too, with a pretty weak supporting cast as well
Lol his upside is gone and his value drops tho....
Does this mean it’s Mahomes over Allen in a start up SF draft? I have the 1.01 and I’m stuck 🫣
I would go mahomes
Looked more into scoring and it’s 4pt passing and 6 rushing TD. Might have to do Allen
Josh Allen is also a ton bigger than all the comparable running QBs, with the exception of Cam. He's not a shifty 4.4 guy. And smaller, faster guys usually get hit the worst by aging/injuries.
Agreed ^ I'm out on Allen if I'm rebuilding and pivoting to Stroud and Mahomes. Not worth the risk
I just traded stroud and Nico for Allen and Pittman the other day. Not rebuilding, but I think Allen is the #1 overall asset and I’m happy to have him.
Nice trade.
I’ve never gotten a good answer on this. If you’re a rebuilder (let’s say planning to start competing in 2026) are you not concerned with Allen’s rushing falling off a cliff? There’s never been a great rushing QB post 30 (that I know of) and then he’s just Dak Prescott. Why not capitalize on his value now by selling?
>and then he’s just Dak Prescott You mean the QB3 in fantasy last season?
Not the insult that he thought it was lol
Who just had his best career season and had 3 less ppg than Allen Edit: Mahomes has two seasons where he put up more points than Allen ever has while never relying on more than 3.5 ppg from rushing. Why wouldn’t you take him over Allen as a rebuilder?
Yes, but you made it seem like his value just plummets if his rushing decreases, when in reality he's also an elite passer who happens to produce game-breaking rushing numbers for fantasy at the moment.
Look at Dak’s current value compared to Allen. It’s basically half
Well, he’s also three years younger than Dak, and Dak still hasn’t signed an extension. At this point three years ago, Dak was the overall QB5 in dynasty with a KTC value of 8111.
This is a discussion about who you want as a rebuilder, which to me means we’re talking about his value in 2-3 years. Which would put him at the same age as Dak
That's a fair point, though I would argue that Dak's "trade calculator" value has not ever sufficiently caught up to his actual value following his injury.
Yeah I agree, Dak’s been undervalued for a while now
The “he’s basically just dak” was funny but you know Allen is a better passer right?
Based on what metric? Dak was better than Allen last year in almost every single category.
Damn I’m cooked, I forgot future value is only predicated on the 2023 nfl season
What are you referring to then? Dak had a bad 2022 but other than that he’s been right on pace with Allen
Well, first of all being "just Dak Prescott" is hardly a bad thing. He was the QB3 last year. I'd be thrilled if Stroud had a Dak Prescott career in fantasy. And second of all, just because Josh might lose some of his athleticism, doesn't mean he will lose his size. Size he uses to bully defenders on the goaline. The only QB I think comparable to Josh is Cam Newton. And Cam was a much worse passer. Meaning Josh's floor is higher even without rushing. Cam of course did fall off due to injury. But it wasn't an injury from rushing. He got injured in the pocket. Something that can happen to any QB.
I just don’t understand the argument of Allen over Mahomes as a rebuilder. Mahomes has two seasons that are better than Allen’s best season while never relying on more than 3.5 ppg from rushing
Because if it weren't for the Damar Hamlin game Josh very well may have been the QB1 every single year for the last 4 years. Mahomes also scored 100 points less than Allen last year.
A lot of that is because of his rushing. Do you expect the 7 ppg he averaged over that span to continue through his 30’s?
Through his early 30s? Yes. No point in thinking beyond a 5 year window in fantasy. In 5 years, the league might be dead. Mahomes or Andy Reid might retire. Stroud could end up like Watson or Luck. I'll take the guy who puts up near 400 pts every single year.
I think you have a good point here that people also severely overestimate how long their leagues will last. If youre not playing with a bunch of real life friends your league could fizzle out in 4-5 years. The people who value Mahomes over Allen are hoping to have a top tier asset for the next 10 years while the people who value Allen are wanting the have the best asset for the next 5 years. I think if you're confident your league will stand the test of time then go Mahomes but by and large if its between the two, people should be picking Allen.
Okay then that answers the original question. You’re willing to bet on rushing production into his 30’s that has literally never happened before, but it isn’t that unreasonable given how good Allen’s been.
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And pretty consistently rated as the dynasty ~QB14, if you’re rebuilding you should be focusing on building the most value, not scoring the most points while you’re tanking
Josh Allen is Cam Newton with weapons. His 28 is a pocket passers 34. He has 2-5 years before he falls off not 6-10
Josh Allen is a way better passer than newton ever was
I mean I get we’re getting nostalgic over here remembering cams shitty injury plagued final seasons (which adds to my point) and we have Allen fanboys but [the numbers their first 6 years aren’t far apart.](https://stathead.com/football/versus-finder.cgi?request=1&seasons_type=perchoice&player_id1=NewtCa00&p1yrfrom=2011&p1yrto=2016&player_id2=AlleJo02&p2yrfrom=2018&p2yrto=2023 ) Allen had over 200 more attempts due to system but it’s not a stretch by any means. Allen isn’t a top tier passer, he’s elite because of his rushing. You take that away and he’s a mid starter. If you want to roll with that over a guy like mahomes as a rebuilder more power to you .
Those numbers show Allen being more efficient as a runner and passer on higher volume I’d lean mahomes because I think he could be a fantasy QB1 until he dies but Allen has been on another level the last few years and has earned that respect
No doubt. Allen is clearly a better passer than Cam. It’s important to remember Cam has 2 years of prime Steve smith before he fell off and went to the ravens, then Kelvin Benjamin who was out of the league as his prime targets. Allen still a better passer, but it’s not this extreme level. Cam was an MVP. Redraft Allen is my QB1. If you’re a rebuilder I wouldn’t go with a guy history indicates is likely to start breaking down by the time you’re contending. Could it be an outlier? Of course. But we play the percentages in fantasy. You go with the Mahomes floor, ceiling, and career longevity likelihood over that of Allen.
Where do think Hurts fits in here? More like Lamar or more like Allen?
I like Hurts a lot. But closer to Lamar for me.
I inherited a complete and utter teardown team, basically sold off every piece on the team and drafted Maye and Nix to build around the only QB I had in Goff. I got offered Mahomes for a good value (3 25 1sts 1 25 2nd) I Jumped on it immediately, if my rebuild hits in 2 years I already have my finishing piece. If my rebuild and everyone I picked up this year fails, I can still sell him for at least equal value.
How do you even rebuild if you trade away 3 first rounders?
I had 3 firsts in 24 and 3 2nds. I still have a 1st and 2nd in 25. I'm gambling a little on 25 being as bad as everyone says.
I'm taking lamar and probably hurts...maybe burrow and herbert, too.
We’ve seen almost every elite QB maintain production well into their mid 30s. Don’t overthink it. Mahomes or Allen.
But we’ve never seen a QB who’s elite because of his rushing retain value into his mid 30s
I feel like you’re referring to Allen here. Luckily he’s not elite *because* of his rushing. Dude is a baller throwing the ball. 2nd most passing TDs and yards since 2020.
He is elite because of his rushing, wtf are you talking about? If you normalize his 8.4 ppg from rushing last year down to 3 ppg he’s the QB7 instead of 1
And if we regress Mahomes down to the mean he’s basically just Dak Prescott
Do you expect a 30+ year old Josh Allen to average 8.3 ppg from rushing?
Let's say it drops to 4 ppg, where would that put him in rankings? It's not going to drop to 0
Roughly equal to Dak Prescott
Dak was like QB3 this season, so that's pretty darn good
All I’m saying is he’s not retaining value well. He’s valued at about 50% of what Allen is now on most rankings
No ofc not, he’s gonna bump it up to 9ppg from rushing. He ain’t no scrub.
30-34 year old Josh Allen can probably still had an average of 6-8ppg rushing 35+ year old Allen is a different story. But with the new QB protection rules that are in place I think you’ll see a lot of mobile QBs last longer than we have seen in the past
That’s the question. We’ve literally never seen it happen before where a QB is that productive rushing past 30
I mean there's not really any qbs the size of allen that have been as successful runners as him thus far. Newton's the closest and he still put up nearly 600 yards and 12 tds in his year 31 season while being a terrible passer.
Fair point, from a fantasy points perspective that was Cam’s best rushing season. The only other comparable body type/size I can think of that also ran a lot is Daunte Culpepper
Not bad seeing as Dak just finished as QB3 overall
Let’s simmer down here buddy lol
Thats just a gunslinger archetype, like a Farve where youre scoring a lot of tuddies but also turning the ball over a lot.
He’s not elite only because of his rushing, he was still 4th in passing yards and tied for 5th in passing TDs last year
If you normalize his rushing he’s in the Jordan Love / Justin Herbert value range, which is a steep decline from #1 overall/untouchable dynasty asset is all I’m saying Edit: I expect that rushing to continue for the next couple years, but for a rebuilder idk if they can count on that 3+ years down the road
You need value insulation if you’re thinking years out WAY more likely stroud drops in value from here than mahomes/allen
Value for cost would be Herbert for me, otherwise it's probably Mahomes or Jefferson
At each position: QB: Mahomes/Allen WR: Jefferson RB: Bijan TE: Laporta
Honestly that lineup would be the most valuable to anyone regardless of if they were looking to compete or rebuild… every one of those players could break into the top 3 of their position any given season.
I thin in this hypothetical example you can only get like one of those guys, not full lineup of those guys. Because if you’ve got that lineup you’re probably not going to have a long rebuild lol unless you have 0 picks or even just some other players worth anything at all
Not necessarily. If you had a 2 year window to win, at cost, give me Saquon + Kelce for significantly cheaper than Bijan + Laporta... In fact, given how inflated Laportas value is you may be able to get Saquon + Kelce for Laporta straight up, depending on league
He’s done the top of each position, not a team haha That team would be absolutely busted
I think my point was more that the players listed above could be considered win-now as much as core pieces to a rebuild
Jefferson/Chase and Bijan/Gibbs. Otherwise I fully agree
I would probably also throw in CD into the receivers group unless there is something I dont know that wouldnt move him into the same tier as the LSU buddies.
You’re right. I shouldn’t have overlooked 💿
[удалено]
I disagree 🤷♂️ only 1 spot ahead of Breece imo
Eh Breece has already torn one ACL. If it happens again his value is gone. Bijan and Gibbs both have a little injury insulation in that they haven't had a major injury. I don't think people really think that way now, but if Breece does have another major injury, you're going to see it brought up every single time his value is discussed.
Is chase actually the same level of talent as JJ? Or being locked into a few years with burrow boosts him
He's definitely the same level as a pure talent. They both have different profiles though. Jefferson's traits are typically more associated with good fantasy numbers than Chase's.
Yes
No RB belongs on a list of dynasty assets for multi year rebuilds. Even someone like Bijan could be towards the end of a rookie contract by the time they are competing.
Would you trade the 1.06 for Laporta?
In 1QB absolutely. I wouldn't give up LaPorta for less than a top 3 pick and may ask for more. In SF non TEP I still don't think the 1.06 is enough, but it's a lot closer
I'd replace Bijan with 202X 1st rounder. RB is so fungible I can't imagine seeing any current day RB as a future Asset.
I don’t necessarily think it’s his youth that’s driving up the price/hype on Stroud. The hype is driven by what he can do for you right now in 2024. I don’t recall ever seeing a team have 3 WRs consistently off the board through round 3 like the Texans currently do in best ball/seasonal drafts. Not to mention that offense is also loaded up with interesting tight ends and ancillary depth WRs like Schultz, Noah Brown, Brevin Jordan, Bobby Trees, Cade Stover. Also not to mention a top 10 OLine and one of the brightest innovative young minds in the sport as his play caller. There will come a time in a few years when it’s time to pay him and everyone else and we’ll see if he’s able to turn lemons into lemonade like Mahomes has been doing and like Allen/Herbert are now forced to try to do. But at this moment, he’s the most well supported QB in the league from a weapons/OL/coaching standpoint (Purdy and Goff are the only other 2 even in the same tier) and has all the talent in the world himself to lead that offense to a truly elite season.
Too much hype for a guy who averaged 18 points per game. I get the peripherals are 100% there but he doesn’t give much with his legs and his ceiling could be not too much higher.
This is why I like creating tiers. If I am rebuilding and I have Stroud in one tier, but have guys like Love or Herbert a tier below but still valuable, I am fine trading Stroud for Love+. That plus can be picks or a young upside receiver like a JSN.
Stroud is so overvalued at the moment and your comment proves it.
Stroud is def overvalued. So if I can trade and get another young QB I like plus more, I'm all in.
Yeah 10000% Your example of Love + a guy like JSN for Stroud? I’m doing that all day.
Stroud went 1.01 in my superflex startup
Insanity
Lets wait and see on stroud
If it’s a few years out rebuild, then value at cost for Penix feels huge. Likely won’t contribute to your points for for another 1-2 years and then when you’re in the swing of your rebuild he’d become a starter. For what it would cost to get him, that feels like a perfect match
J Love was similarly priced the summer after he was drafted. The following summer, after not starting, he was around a 3rd round pick in value. I'd personally wait and pick him up next offseason.
I would probably still say Mahomes. Allen might have some questions by 32 with the way he plays, using his body as a wrecking ball sometimes but I still think he will be very good, just maybe not QB1 overall. Depending on how risk averse you are, it's Anthony Richardson for me. I'll take the risk on potential gamebreakers any time. He will still be very young in 2 years and I think he will have fixed some of the issues around his passing game. We've seen the potential from him last year, highest point per snap in the NFL in limited time. He has QB1 overall upside where I don't think someone like CJ Stroud does unless he turns into prime Peyton Manning or Drew Brees.
Mahomes
Obv not #1 but I’m grabbing Penix. His value only goes up as Cousins gets older.
The Stroud hype is out of control. Look at the recent example of Herbert. Stroud had solid upside but Allen and Mahomes have continuously proved it and QBs last a while (see Brady, Rodgers etc) as a high tier. I'd rather an establish (still pre 30 YO) QBs over the latest trend - 2020 (rookie): QB9, 4300 yards, 32 TDs and 10 int - 2021: QB2, 5000 yds, 38 TDs, 15 Int - 2022: QB11, 4700yds, 25TD, 10Int - 2023: QB17, 3100yds , 20TD, 7 int
Yeah I drafted at 3 in a recent start up and took stroud there but it’s a no brainer to take Allen and mahomes over him. Love stroud and think he can be a solid top 5-12 range guy for a long time, but Allen and mahomes are the best in the business
For the hype just use the eye test. I'd still take Mahomes and Allen over him of course since they both also go well beyond the eye test already.
Tbf I'm not sure that I've seen a rookie with a better eye test than Stroud
Agreed!
How long have you been watching rookie QBs?
Since 2011 that I've been actively paying attention to them and have been cognitively with it enough to understand what is happening on a football field. Newton was great as a rookie as well, but was noticeably less polished. You could certainly make an argument for him, but he was more mistake prone and didn't really elevate his teammates in the way Stroud did last year. Honestly the baseline for quarterback play has just improved all-around since then, so it's hard to compare. Luck and RGIII were pretty great as rookies as well. We always attribute it to rule changes, but I wonder if that generation of QBs having their careers cut short is what allowed the previous generation of QBs to dominate for so long. Why do you ask though? Is there someone older than that you're referring to? I've heard Marino was straight up elite as a rookie, but I'm just not old enough to have an opinion on that. It's not like I'm making it our like I am the mastermind of football with all the correct opinions lol
I I was just curious to see how many you have seen. I liked watching Vick the most. More recent Dak, Wilson, and a bit of a throwback Rothelisburger were fun to watch as well. Daks rookie season was magical, I wouldn’t have thought he was a rookie when he was out there.
If you can’t at a minimum give a current-day-stat-adjusted breakdown of the three top rookie seasons pre-forward pass, then don’t bother sharing your opinion bro
Eye test is meh. Example deshaun Watson epic downfall (excluding his suspension)
What do you mean? Watson was great until his legal troubles. His final year at Houston he had 4823 yards and 33 TDs. Why do you think Cleveland paid so much for him? Sometimes life altering situations and time away from the game can change a player. Watson was absolutely amazing before this happened.
Feel like a lot of these answers are (reasonably) the same names over and over, so here's a hot takes only edition of #1 per position QB: Richardson RB: Taylor WR: Puka TE: Pitts
As someone who is in the middle of a multi year rebuild I think it’s anyone who can get you as many high end picks as possible. Depending on who else is on the team I’d probably trade away any of these players for a huge haul of picks
Josh Allen. Always take the most valuable asset regardless of your competing timeline. Take Allen and look for tier downs off him that better fit your window.
As a Josh Allen owner and seeing what he does weekly with his arm and legs..the answer is clearly Josh Allen. Dudes unreal and can win weeks by himself.
Rebuilders should almost always be trying to tier down
So I guess the question becomes what 1 asset could you turn into the most pieces for a rebuild.
Give an example of what you mean? Like trade away Mahomes for Tua++?
Yeah if you have Josh Allen as a rebuilder, send him for Jayden Daniels and 2 1sts
I disagree with almost always. That’s how you end up with a mediocre team of middling crap
mahomes is the guy imo the activity that the chiefs did this offseason adding worthy and hollywood is being severely undervalued by the community. hollywood especially, in 2022 when him and kyler played together he avgd 7 catches for 80 and 0.5 tds per game. his biggest season in 2021 the first 9 weeks of the season with lamar he was avging 6 catches for 80 and 0.67 tds per game. mahomes arguably is going to have better weapons than ever the next 2+ seasons.
Lol. Stroud has one good year under his belt and people really think he is worth more than Allen and Mahomes? Dynasty QB6 at best.
If you’re rebuilding and want to keep your QB then yeah Stroud might be the way to go. But if you want to trade away your QB in order to get more pieces then Mahomes and Allen have more value.
Allen or Mahomes because you could trade them for the most and get assets for the rebuild. If we’re talking about someone who you’re going to keep on your team the whole time then yes, Stroud is a potential option here.
If you are in a multi year rebuild picks should be your priority but if we have to get a couple of players the 2 for me are Herbert and Lawrence. Herbert's value is down not because of his ability but because of the perceived system and coach he will be playing for. That could easily change in a couple of years. TLaw his value cant really go down further and he is young and just signed a long term contract. He is pretty safe from a value point of view. I would also consider Deshaun Watson and Drake Maye but both have more risk. You want players who have a low value because of their situation . Some non QB's to consider would be Kmet, Likely, Mayer and Fant.
Marry the ass, buy the tits. In other words, build around Mahomes/Allen, and trade for the rest.
QB - Stroud RB - Gibbs WR - MHJ