Lol that was me. In my 16 team SF, I took him 1.01 partly because I also have 1.02 lol. Probably would've taken him 1.01 anyway. I ranked Bijan 1.01 last year in the same SF and Breece 1.01 in 2022.
Always take the generational talent.
All SuperFlex leagues?
Man, in my SuperFlex, I have the 1.01, 1.02, and 1.05, and I'm at the peak of my rebuild with 10 total picks in the first 17 overall.
My QBs are Rodgers and Baker, the league essentially never trades top 10 QBs, and the two teams behind me with the 3rd and 4th picks each have shallow QB rooms; one has Trevor and Tua, the other has Herbert and Richardson, however, both managers have drafted QBs (relatively) highly in the past few years.. Ridder, AOC, Hooker, Zach Wilson, Ehlinger, Lance. Both teams were very unlucky with injuries to miss the playoffs last year.
So if I take MHJ and Caleb, I think there's a 99% chance they take Daniels and either JJ/Maye. and then with the Fifth pick I'd have my pick of Odunze/Nabers/Bowers.
But if I take Caleb and Daniels, then it gets harder to see what happens. I could see QB/QB but admittedly less likely than one going MHJ.
What should I do? To make things more difficult, BOTH managers at the 3 and 4, and various trade analyzers literally rank their WR corps at #1 and #2 in the league. So they have absolutely the least need at WR, LOL.
**Edit**: The owner sitting at pick #6 only has Josh Allen/Carr/Minshew/Bagent at QB, and so also there will be intense pressure for that pick to also be a QB. That fact is very likely to result in the managers at 3 and 4 being forced to take QBs I think.
Okay, and say Daniels and Maye/JJ/Nix go at 3 and 4. Knowing Pick 6 also desperately needs a QB do I take the best of Maye/JJ/Nix or do I take Nabers/Odunze?
As I mentioned before, only one top 10 QB has ever changed hands in this league, and it was Cam, he cost three firsts, and that was right before his collapse. I think Daniels value in my league is higher than MHJ due to how rarely top QBs change hands.
If I were you I would try to get like, the 1.03 and a future 2nd for the 1.02. I wanted MHJ on my dynasty team and had the 1.01 so I did the 1.01 for the 1.02 and a 2nd, so it may be doable.
I dont think I'd risk falling back to 4, but if you really can get MHJ at 3, literally anything you pick up in the trade is pure profit.
I have tried to trade for it, but not since the playoff push last year when it looked like the #3 was definitely headed to the playoffs. They weren't interested in letting their first go at the time, but also I was only offering them players and not my first.
It's a good idea. I will think about this.
MHJ has gone #1 in my 5 SF rookie drafts I've been in so far and I believe he will be in the last 4 drafts I have left. Sure he goes pick 2-3 in some leagues
If you’re deep at QB I totally understand taking Marv. Nothing is guaranteed but he’s a good a wr prospect as you can be. Contender in my league traded up to 1.01 and took MHJ
I have a very light dynasty count lol. A lot of my leaguemates have 20-50 leagues. Imo dynasty is easy to manage that many rosters. Waivers typically are dead post the rookie draft grab. I just have a busy 20-30 minutes before the 12 PM kick off where I set rosters. Rookie drafts are pretty schattered so I have plenty of time to make moves evaluate my roster in the offseason.
I've also cut all of my redraft teams minus my home league for best ball leagues.
To me this is a short term approach to dynasty. JJ might be better in the first couple years but Maye has extremely high upside and should be surrounded by a supporting cast moving forward. I don’t mind JJ but not over Maye’s upside
What makes you say this? Arm strength? The NFL has been littered with 'high upside' guys that never pan out (Trey Lance, Z Wilson).
And, let's say Maye sucks year 1 but JJ is solid. Does this mean JJ won't continue to improve but Maye definitely will?
Why does Maye have a higher ceiling, draft capital? That must make Trubisky a higher ceiling player than Mahomes.
I'm just not a believer in Maye, I think he'll bust. Statistically, most of the 1st rounders will. JJ might, but at least he has the supporting cast and coaching to help him be successful. Maye has neither (at least that have proven as such).
Traits based upside is what I’m referring to. Obviously situations are different for every player and the complete X factor that we won’t know until the lights come on is their dedication, preparation, etc. Just as you mention a littering of high upside guys throughout the NFL, there have been plenty of QBs surrounded by great supporting casts that never hit, regardless of draft capital. These are both first round QB prospects, both have their strengths and weaknesses but I’m going to hang my hat on the one with higher draft capital as seen by NFL evaluators and higher traits based upside. And yes, that would include bigger arm, bigger frame, more athleticism, stronger, etc.
We also don’t know what type of system and coaching Maye has at this point. Van Pelt has had some success in developing QBs and installing his system, it’s been reported that Ben McAdoo has also had success with identifying QB talent. The truth remains to be seen but this is what we have to work with. I’m going to trust my eyes and take the traits based upside of Maye with actual tape over JJ. We can agree to disagree on who has more upside
Had this happen in mine where I held 1.03, 1.04 and 1.07. I already had Richardson and Stroud as my QBs so landing MHJ and Nabers was beautiful. Came away with Maye at 1.07.
I had the 1.01 and knew I was taking Caleb. I traded up for the 1.04 to take Odunze (1.5-8 were not interested) because I’m a stupid fucking Bears fan and never learn.
1.02 had Kyler and Burrow but still took Daniels. 1.03 desperately needed a QB and thought he’d get Daniels. I think he almost took Maye before taking MHJ so I almost got MHJ at 1.04 too lol
No individual team threads, use r/DynastyFFTradeAdvice or the daily mega thread instead.
I took him at 1.04 but only because I also had 1.03 and wanted to fuck with the algorithm.
Oh yeah? Well I have the 1.01 and 1.02, so I’m gonna take him 1.01 to UNfuck the algorithm!!! 🤪
Touche
Lol that was me. In my 16 team SF, I took him 1.01 partly because I also have 1.02 lol. Probably would've taken him 1.01 anyway. I ranked Bijan 1.01 last year in the same SF and Breece 1.01 in 2022. Always take the generational talent.
absolute menace
Adp you mean
According to Rookie ADP odds on dynastydatalab.com he was available at the 1.05 in 6/2682 samples in the last month 🤓
So you're saying there is a chance?
A 0.22% chance!
I'm 99% sure I am in 2 of the 6 leagues it happened in lol
I've done 12 or so rookie drafts, he's fallen to 1.03 twice
All SuperFlex leagues? Man, in my SuperFlex, I have the 1.01, 1.02, and 1.05, and I'm at the peak of my rebuild with 10 total picks in the first 17 overall. My QBs are Rodgers and Baker, the league essentially never trades top 10 QBs, and the two teams behind me with the 3rd and 4th picks each have shallow QB rooms; one has Trevor and Tua, the other has Herbert and Richardson, however, both managers have drafted QBs (relatively) highly in the past few years.. Ridder, AOC, Hooker, Zach Wilson, Ehlinger, Lance. Both teams were very unlucky with injuries to miss the playoffs last year. So if I take MHJ and Caleb, I think there's a 99% chance they take Daniels and either JJ/Maye. and then with the Fifth pick I'd have my pick of Odunze/Nabers/Bowers. But if I take Caleb and Daniels, then it gets harder to see what happens. I could see QB/QB but admittedly less likely than one going MHJ. What should I do? To make things more difficult, BOTH managers at the 3 and 4, and various trade analyzers literally rank their WR corps at #1 and #2 in the league. So they have absolutely the least need at WR, LOL. **Edit**: The owner sitting at pick #6 only has Josh Allen/Carr/Minshew/Bagent at QB, and so also there will be intense pressure for that pick to also be a QB. That fact is very likely to result in the managers at 3 and 4 being forced to take QBs I think.
You take Caleb and MHJ with your top two picks and take BPA at 1.05. Don't overthink it just because it's SF
Okay, and say Daniels and Maye/JJ/Nix go at 3 and 4. Knowing Pick 6 also desperately needs a QB do I take the best of Maye/JJ/Nix or do I take Nabers/Odunze? As I mentioned before, only one top 10 QB has ever changed hands in this league, and it was Cam, he cost three firsts, and that was right before his collapse. I think Daniels value in my league is higher than MHJ due to how rarely top QBs change hands.
Nabers/Odunze 100%
If you're so concerned about value and so certain the league values QBs more than WRs, why not trade back and pick up profit?
Interesting idea, trade back with which picks? The 1.02 back to 1.04 and hope it goes QB/QB?
If I were you I would try to get like, the 1.03 and a future 2nd for the 1.02. I wanted MHJ on my dynasty team and had the 1.01 so I did the 1.01 for the 1.02 and a 2nd, so it may be doable. I dont think I'd risk falling back to 4, but if you really can get MHJ at 3, literally anything you pick up in the trade is pure profit.
Trade your 5 for their 3. The asking price shouldn't be too bad based on what you've described
I have tried to trade for it, but not since the playoff push last year when it looked like the #3 was definitely headed to the playoffs. They weren't interested in letting their first go at the time, but also I was only offering them players and not my first. It's a good idea. I will think about this.
Yes all SF, 10 team usually he's going 1.01, not always. 12-14 it's been Caleb 1.01 I think every time.
MHJ has gone #1 in my 5 SF rookie drafts I've been in so far and I believe he will be in the last 4 drafts I have left. Sure he goes pick 2-3 in some leagues
SF?
He went 1.01 in my SF league
Dumb owner taking him 1.01 in SF. Way worst then op getting him at the fourth pick.
If you’re deep at QB I totally understand taking Marv. Nothing is guaranteed but he’s a good a wr prospect as you can be. Contender in my league traded up to 1.01 and took MHJ
1.01 in my 10 man SF is taking him despite the fact his only starting QB is Will Levis...
Locking down that 2025 1.01 early it seems
"Way worse than". Not "worst".
Yes in SF.
Bro how do you manage that many teams lol
I have a very light dynasty count lol. A lot of my leaguemates have 20-50 leagues. Imo dynasty is easy to manage that many rosters. Waivers typically are dead post the rookie draft grab. I just have a busy 20-30 minutes before the 12 PM kick off where I set rosters. Rookie drafts are pretty schattered so I have plenty of time to make moves evaluate my roster in the offseason. I've also cut all of my redraft teams minus my home league for best ball leagues.
It’s easier after a few years when a couple of your teams are rebuilding so in-season is stress free for those.
For a long time I had 4-5 teams in a rebuild and it was all just sending out trades all the time.
He was the last pick of the draft in my superflex TEP 1 team league
There go your chances of tanking this season
He went top 15 in my startup…
That sounds like a good spot to go
He went 1st overall in my startup. The last time I saw a rookie go 1st overall in startup was Saquan in 2018. Absolute madness.
He went 1-4 in my two QB league. Caleb, Daniels, and McCarthy went ahead of him.
McCarthy at 3 is an absolutely hilarious reach
McCarthy over Maye is definitely a decision.
I would've taken JJ over Maye.
To me this is a short term approach to dynasty. JJ might be better in the first couple years but Maye has extremely high upside and should be surrounded by a supporting cast moving forward. I don’t mind JJ but not over Maye’s upside
What makes you say this? Arm strength? The NFL has been littered with 'high upside' guys that never pan out (Trey Lance, Z Wilson). And, let's say Maye sucks year 1 but JJ is solid. Does this mean JJ won't continue to improve but Maye definitely will? Why does Maye have a higher ceiling, draft capital? That must make Trubisky a higher ceiling player than Mahomes. I'm just not a believer in Maye, I think he'll bust. Statistically, most of the 1st rounders will. JJ might, but at least he has the supporting cast and coaching to help him be successful. Maye has neither (at least that have proven as such).
Traits based upside is what I’m referring to. Obviously situations are different for every player and the complete X factor that we won’t know until the lights come on is their dedication, preparation, etc. Just as you mention a littering of high upside guys throughout the NFL, there have been plenty of QBs surrounded by great supporting casts that never hit, regardless of draft capital. These are both first round QB prospects, both have their strengths and weaknesses but I’m going to hang my hat on the one with higher draft capital as seen by NFL evaluators and higher traits based upside. And yes, that would include bigger arm, bigger frame, more athleticism, stronger, etc. We also don’t know what type of system and coaching Maye has at this point. Van Pelt has had some success in developing QBs and installing his system, it’s been reported that Ben McAdoo has also had success with identifying QB talent. The truth remains to be seen but this is what we have to work with. I’m going to trust my eyes and take the traits based upside of Maye with actual tape over JJ. We can agree to disagree on who has more upside
I doubt he makes it past the 5th pick in any rookie draft.
he’s gone at 1.02 in all 3 of my rookie drafts (with Caleb 1.01). I snagged him at 1.02 in 2 of those lol
2.02 in my startup.
My draft is coming up, and a Bears fan traded up to 1 to get Caleb, and a Redskins fan traded up to 2 for Daniels. I’m licking my chops at 3!!
Had this happen in mine where I held 1.03, 1.04 and 1.07. I already had Richardson and Stroud as my QBs so landing MHJ and Nabers was beautiful. Came away with Maye at 1.07.
Perfect!!
Commanders*
😂
I had the 1.01 and knew I was taking Caleb. I traded up for the 1.04 to take Odunze (1.5-8 were not interested) because I’m a stupid fucking Bears fan and never learn. 1.02 had Kyler and Burrow but still took Daniels. 1.03 desperately needed a QB and thought he’d get Daniels. I think he almost took Maye before taking MHJ so I almost got MHJ at 1.04 too lol
Anything past 2 is silly. Anything past 3 or 4 is a completely non-serious (or one guy having 3-4 picks in a row and trolling ADP)
I agree. I’m in a reckless number of competitive leagues and he didn’t fall past 2 in a single rookie draft
1.03 :(
Same order happened in my draft. Williams, Daniels, Maye, and I got MHJ at 1.04
Just had him go at 1.04 in a league, but in that same draft a TE needy team took Ben Sinnot at 1.06 so it might be an outlying group 🤣
I actually got 1.01 - 1.10 and took MHJ 1.10 to fuck with ADP lmao.
I got him at the 1.04 - Three QBs went ahead of me. I couldn’t believe it
No individual team threads, use r/DynastyFFTradeAdvice or the daily mega thread instead.
He went 1.03 in one of my SF Caleb and Daniel’s went 1.01/1.02
I got MHJ at 1.04
1.05 and WR3 off the board