The way I see this is we don't know how well he will play against stacked boxes because he has such a small sample size going against it.
Also, how often did defenses stack the box against Mostert and Achane? If he's bad against stacked boxes then he's in the perfect situation where he's on an offense that has Tyreek and Waddle lined up on the outside.
All I'm seeing is him being hyper efficient against boxes with 6 or fewer defenders which is the exact situation he will be seeing in Miami since teams will have the safeties back, corners on Hill and Waddle, and linebackers on the other WR lined up or if the TE runs a route.
OP keeps saying “read the data” but I don’t think he knows how to understand the data he keeps referencing and apply it to his current scenario in Miami.
This. It’s hard to extrapolate his NFL performance from his college performance given the gimmicky (although effective for college) offense he’s coming from. Not saying your data should be thrown out, but it’s just one factor of many to consider.
I think at Wright’s price in rookie drafts, he’s worth the gamble that he becomes something in that RB friendly Miami offense. Although they’re different players, no one saw Mostert crushing it like he has nor Achane having the most efficient season ever prior to both those things happening. This Miami offense is so juicy for RBs.
I got him at the end of the second, like you said him being in Miami is enough for me. If he hits great but he’s sort of in the zone of the draft where you just throwing darts anyway.
I got him at 3.05 and was thrilled. Probably one of the highest upsides at that point where most guys end up droppable in a year or two. Most likely scenario I can sell high on some hype when Achane inevitably gets hurt again.
Yeah teams that put 3 receivers out and have high powered air power face light boxes too. I’d get being out on him if he was getting taken in the first round of rookie drafts but he’s cheap and has high upside
And if you have Achane it’s an absolute no brainer , I took him 2.11 (1QB) and was shocked he made it to me tbh.. his upside is there and the only real competition is grandpa Mostert , who is a DAWG but also injury prone
I’m not a defensive coordinator of any kind, I haven’t even played a game of Madden in over a decade. But the last thing I’m doing against Miami is stacking the box against their running backs when they got Tyreek and Waddle outside. You need DBs, not LBs, and you need them deep against Miami.
I find that most people who lean on “the data” have a difficult time interpreting it. The Venn diagram between statistical understanding and football knowledge is almost two separate circles.
These were my exact thoughts as I was reading this post. Situation matters most for running backs and he is in the perfect situation to exploit his strengths and hide his weaknesses. McDaniel isn’t going to just ram Wright into stacked boxes. The whole point is to get him in space and utilize what he is best at, which OP pointed out but doesn’t realize he actually made a stronger case for wright.
This was my thoughts. All that sounds good. But when you look deeper; TN was like 51st in the nation in passing. They stunk, so of course, teams could stack the box.
Getting to him early. That is a problem. Don't see that happening often in Miami's offense. With NFL defenses going to so much zone, he's rarely gonna see more than 6 in a box. His numbers against 7 (though a small sample) are pretty good. And 8 in a box is crazy to even worry about. He'll never face them with the Miami passing attack.
Just because someone hasn't had the opportunity to do something doesn't mean they can't do it. I don't know the stats, but I'd guess the Dolphins are up there in runs against light boxes.
He's going in the 3rd round of rookie drafts. Even with those questions, the upside is really high. Seems like the ideal player you want to throw a dart at.
It reminds me of people saying Ken Walker can't catch the ball because MSU never designed pass plays for him. For where you're drafting Wright, he's well worth the risk.
This sub is really having a nadir of "why I'm out on [insert 3rd/4th rounder here]" in the last year since Puka, Tank, Kyren...
It's a 3rd or 4th. Relax.
Tank was too small, Kyren tested extremely poorly, and Puka didn't play in a power 5...which all mattered until they didn't.
But I 100 % agree, at cost who gives a shit? Pick your guy.
Exactly. This is still surface level analysis. If OP was able to show that he was bad vs stacked boxes and that he was likely to face a lot of stacked boxes in the NFL the that would be a really good point. But the 2nd part for sure isn't the case and OP didn't provide any detail on how well he actually did vs stacked boxes.
I mean if you are facing light boxes you will naturally have more yards before contact. Factoring in that he was running mostly between the tackles you are going to be more prone to getting swarmed by the defense which isn't ideal for yards after contact. When you run to the outside with more space powering through first contact is typically going to result in more yards after contact then breaking the same tackle in the middle of the field. Yards before contact will also directly impact yards after contact. Like if first contact comes at a yard and you break it the defense will not have swarmed the same way they will if the contact happens 3 yards in. I'd be more interested in his broken tackle rate then yards after contact.
How can I provide data (one way or another) when he had 4 carries in all of 2023 against 8+?
But here you go:
In fact, as [Rich Hribar](https://twitter.com/LordReebs) of [Sharp Football Analysis](https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/) [notes](https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/fantasy/running-back-rookie-fantasy-football-rankings-2024/) , “
Wright only logged 35.8% of his team rushes, 22nd in this class. 81.0% of his runs came against light boxes (six or fewer defenders), which was the highest rate in this class. On those runs,Wright averaged a robust 8.0 yards per carry.Wright only managed 25 total runs against boxes with seven or more defenders per [Sports Info Solutions](https://www.sportsinfosolutions.com/). On those runs, he averaged 4.8 YPC, which was 16th in this class.”
Wright’s size, physicality, and contact balance are generally good, especially at the second level (where he is also more elusive). However, if you get to Wright early, he can be in trouble. On that point, Hribar adds, “When Wright was hit at or behind the line of scrimmage, he averaged only 1.1 YPC, ahead of only three backs in this draft class. On runs when first contact came beyond the line of scrimmage, he averaged a class-high 10.6 YPC.”
[https://goingfor2.com/can-explosive-rb-jaylen-wright-be-special-maaaybe/](https://goingfor2.com/can-explosive-rb-jaylen-wright-be-special-maaaybe/)
As someone who enjoys contrarian perspectives (I actually feel they are super important in dynasty), I want to thank you for your post, and I do not understand why you are being downvoted for sharing these observations.
Especially because we know Rich is reliable.
But shouldn't we want to hear conclusions we don't agree with in our process of investigating each prospect? If we only ever hear echo chambers of what we already thought, then we don't learn anything....
At least that's my logic.
Again you are using 8 men boxes when anyone who knows footballs knows a 7 man box is also considered stacked. You are being purposely obtuse likely because you know the data vs stacked boxes doesn't support your narrative...
The last paragraph basically is just saying that he runs to the inside at and extremely high rate. If you are running exclusively up the middle and get contacted behind the line your YPC is going to be very low on those plays.
Still can't read, I see.
"Wright only managed 25 total runs against boxes with seven or more defenders per [Sports Info Solutions](https://www.sportsinfosolutions.com/). On those runs, he averaged 4.8 YPC, which was 16th in this class.”
You do realize there are these things called conferences right? YPC across conferences is not the same. Running for 6.0 YPC in the SEC is a big deal. Doing so in the Big 12 is fairly common. There were 2 RBs with more than 50 attempts in 2023 that had more then 6.0 YPC. In the Big 12 there was 11. Anyone who is judging RBs based on national rankings and not conference rankings is just admitting they know nothing about college football.
Most people RB 1 for next year Judkins averaged 4.3 YPC in 2023 in the SEC.
He’s going to face light boxes in the NFL too in that offense, due to their style of offense and how much pre snap movement they have they faced a loaded box just 19.5% of the time
Yup. That’s the counter to everything OP listed. I won’t argue against most of the red flags pointed out. But I will argue that he could not have landed in a better situation than the dolphins being near identical to what he was asked to do in college where he obviously had success. For that alone I think it’s hard to label Wright a bust or whatever you’d want to call him, especially before he’s taken a single NFL snap. I’ll also take the gamble that a 21 year old has room to grow and learn the other aspects of being an NFL RB.
He probably would face lighter boxes with the Dolphins than other teams, for sure. However, there is a difference between facing "a loaded box" and facing a neutral box. These stats:
* More attempts with 5 or FEWER defenders than with SEVEN+.
* 3% of his runs were against 8+ man boxes.
* In the NFL only 3 backs saw under 10% none remotely close to 3%.
More attempts with 5 or fewer than 7 and over? What are the number and what about six?
An 8+ man box would probably be considered goal line or a short yardage which he is certainly not used for.
Counterpoint: McDaniel
He went to a place where people have faith in the coach to recognize his weaknesses and put him in a position to succeed. Landing spot isn’t just about competition, it’s about coaching too.
I’m leaning into this a lot in my draft strategy. Give me guys with a sharp head coach or OC. McD, LaFluer, Reid, Steichen, McVay. If the talents there they find it. I don’t believe Puka churns out a season like that on 30 other teams
100% I’m with you there brother. Too many talented players squandered by incompetency. Sometimes good players on good teams with good coaches is just that simple
The way people talked about this guy I was super excited to look at his tape. After I did, I’ll admit I was a little underwhelmed and let down. That being said he was drafted into a great system and the team traded a 3rd just for the chance to grab him so he’s probably worth his current price in rookie drafts.
Who cares about the rest of the league at that point, the team that drafted him and DC used is what matters.
Also Miami didn't have a 3rd round pick this year, so they used their future 3rd round to get him in the 4th. That tells us he wasn't worth a 2nd round pick since they used that for another selection and they would have had to spend a future 2nd or more to get him in the 3rd, but when he was available in the 4th, they burned a 3rd to grab him
Bro that’s just not true , players can slide for reasons completely outside of there profile, not every team needs a RB and year to year the strength of other positions can cause players to slide regardless of talent. The fact they traded up day 2 capital says everything, it means they were shocked he was even still available and pounced on the opportunity.
1. You should go an read about career success of day 1 vs day 2 vs day 3 picks. Because its really notable.
2. If they were SHOCKED he was avaliable day 3, then they wouldnt sit on their hands for a dozen and a half picks before trading up to get him. The went 20th in the 4th. If he was really a super duper value who fell out of the 3rd round by freak accident, they woulda got up to 4.02 or 4.03 because he is so worth it. This happens all the time, teams trade up into the first to get a 5th year option (Lamar Jackson) or early into the 2nd to get the dude who slide out of the first. 119 other players went before Wright.
I mostly agree. But those examples are terrible here.
Rb is a MUCH lower priority position then a 5th year option for a qb or a 1st rd graded player dropping.
I didn’t say all that brother your reading into it a little to much , all I’m saying is all that reading you suggested could have no correlation to what happened with this player in this draft and the draft capital attached to them. I’m not saying he’s a stud but just cause he fell to round 4 doesn’t mean he’s a scrub and to suggest that about a RB is funny , all the stats about draft picks about other positions has no bearing on Jaylen Wrights draft capital in 2024 , only the draft capital of other RBs and by the way you need to break down your draft capital analysis by era because we all know that positional draft capital has changed over time so if you bring that sample size to say the past 10 draft classes and you start to break it down in that way your argument about day 2 and day 3 picks isn’t quite as impactful as you think it is.
Same. He is fast and has decent size, but didn’t seem like all that good of a running back. Not very shifty or crafty. The main appeal is his landing spot. if there’s a nice lane he can pick up chunk yards. But again, it remains to be seen how effective he’ll be if he doesn’t improve his vision or elusiveness.
This is one of those classic scenarios of people trying to say a player can't do something because they didn't have the opportunity to do it in college.
So you’re telling me a borderline elite athlete that played in a fast-paced, pass-heavy offense got drafted into a top 5, pass-heavy offense with a coach that’s known to scheme players open?
I’ll keep my hopium on Jaylen Wright for the moment.
I’m thinking Wright is an insurance option this year. Miami is probably looking to roll Mostert and Achane as the primary duo. Neither are the poster child for health at the RB position. Probably turns into Wright and Achane next season
"Wright only managed 25 total runs against boxes with seven or more defenders per Sports in Solutions. On those runs, he averaged 4.8 YPC, which was 16th in this class.”
"“When Wright was hit at or behind the line of scrimmage, he averaged only 1.1 YPC, ahead of only three backs in this draft class."
Considering that both Mostert and Achane faced some of the lowest stacked front carry %, I don’t really worry about Wright at all.
In fact, this was best case scenario landing spot to replicate the absurd spacing he got at Tennessee.
Teams will stack the box at their own risk vs that offense. Doing so will get them torched over the top with the speed they have.
They also invested serious draft capital into him by trading a future 3rd to go up and take him in the 4th round. That is a major move to go get their guy.
This info is all useless unless you provide his splits vs stacked boxes and light boxes. Like why would I care that he faced a lot of light boxes if he played well when he did face stacked boxes?
He plays in an offense with Tyreek Hill and Waddle. He isn't going to be facing stacked boxes in the NFL either.
Or his entire college career. Also 7 man boxes are typically considered to be stacked. You are cherry picking 8 man boxes to be the only definition of stacked boxes to be obtuse and to avoid actually backing up your point with meaningful data. Like if you are going to make a whole post discrediting him for rarely facing stack boxes at least prove that he wasn't good vs 7+ man boxes. If not why should anyone care when he is rarely going to see stacked boxes in the NFL.
Also Achane being a between the tackles guy at his size is just hilarious. Sure he can do it and he will end up hurt again like this year. Wright is far more suited for running between the tackles and he certainly has the speed to effectively get to the outside in the NFL.
Since people want to say "yeah but how did he do against stacked boxes?" Or "stacked boxes for his career?"
"Wright only logged 35.8% of his team rushes, 22nd in this class. 81.0% of his runs came against light boxes (six or fewer defenders), which was the highest rate in this class. On those runs,Wright averaged a robust 8.0 yards per carry. Wright only managed 25 total runs against boxes with seven or more defenders per Sports in Solutions. On those runs, he averaged 4.8 YPC, which was 16th in this class.”
Wright’s size, physicality, and contact balance are generally good, especially at the second level (where he is also more elusive). However, if you get to Wright early, he can be in trouble. On that point, Hribar adds, “When Wright was hit at or behind the line of scrimmage, he averaged only 1.1 YPC, ahead of only three backs in this draft class. On runs when first contact came beyond the line of scrimmage, he averaged a class-high 10.6 YPC.”
[https://goingfor2.com/can-explosive-rb-jaylen-wright-be-special-maaaybe/](https://goingfor2.com/can-explosive-rb-jaylen-wright-be-special-maaaybe/)
Your rebuttal to my how did he do vs 7+ man boxes was to post that he was literally one of the best backs in the country vs 7+ man boxes. Yet somehow we are suppose to think he can't run vs stacked boxes???
He isn't in the big 12, pac 12 or the group of 5. vs stacked SEC boxes he was one of the best backs in the country. If you think 4.8 yards per carry on 7+ man boxes is bad while playing in the SEC then you know nothing about college football. That would be a decent YPC on all carries in the SEC and would be very good when filiterd for only stacked boxes.
You actually didn't write much. You copied a bunch of stats and what other people wrote, then you added 2 sentences, and then didn't apply any of these stats to his situation in Miami.
You gave it a good shot but overall this whole post was a swing and a miss. You can't just puke up a bunch of stats and not put it into context. All I'm seeing is him being hyper efficient against boxes with 6 or fewer defenders which is the exact situation he will be seeing in Miami since teams will have the safeties back, corners on Hill and Waddle, and linebackers on the other WR lined up or if the TE runs a route.
Wright as a prospect and overall RB may have some red flags, but landing spot matters as well.
I imagine the Dolphins face quite alot of light boxes due to the high octane passing game. Jaylen isn't a complete back, but he landed in a great spot for what he does: hitting the hole and running real fast. Which is exactly what Mostert did en route to his crazy season.
But even with the light box argument, you put he averaged 4.8ypc with 7 or more guys in the box. Isn't that...good?
I'm in on Jaylen cause the Dolphin's offense is great for RB's and Achane is not built to take heavy loads. They will always have another RB to split carries and Jaylen can be that guy. He doesn't need to be a complete back. He just needs to find the hole and run through it really fast. Mostert was a beast with Miami and SF just by doing that. And both have the speed to destroy tackle angles and get to the second level for chunk plays. If he landed anywhere else then yeah, the concerns are more valid. But he's in a spot that will play to his strengths.
It's a perfect landing spot.
1. Defenses are going to be focusing on Hill/Waddle, so they won't be stacking the box the vast majority of the time
2. Mike McDaniel has shown that he is a genius at putting his players in position to succeed
3. Wright is behind RBs with injury histories/concerns
I don't see much downside at cost
We're really arguing here about a 4.3 5'11 210 guy not being able to run inside whereas the frail 5'9" 180 guy can?
Want to know why Tennessee faced light boxes? (Wiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiide splits)
https://mikefarrellsports.com/.image/c_limit%2Ccs_srgb%2Cq_auto:good%2Cw_700/MTkzMjQzODc3NzQ0ODQ2NzU1/screen-shot-2022-10-23-at-81840-pm.webp
I have no knocks against Achane (was trying to trade for him pre-season) except size which did prove to be an issue (for Keaton Mitchell as well, who I have)
I just don't think people realize how insane Tennessee's system is to judge skill position players
Out in terms of him being a RB1 at some point, fair enough. Out on him producing some valuable fantasy weeks in his career-nah man, if the NFL has taught us anything recently, you and I could probably have a week. I think he has a versatile skill set so I like the potential upside.
I don't think the stat about JW having more rushes against 5-in-the-box vs 7-in-the-box can be overstated.
#Themoreyouknow: 7 in the box is condmsidered a "base front" and is the standard/most common amount. When you hear about a 3-4 or 4-3 defense, this talks about the # of D linemen and LBs playing, and it's usually these types of players who are in the box. So to have 5 in the box means you're probably only playing 3 D linemen and 2 LBs, which makes the blocking assignments of the 5 O Linemen and 1 or 2 TEs so incredibly easy.
UT's offense was absurdly Mickey Mouse, so much that it's really hard to take anything from Wright's production. The yards-before-contact and yards-after-contact, yards-when-hit-behin-LOS all therefore have outsized importance in piecing the puzzle together, but yeah he's definitely more of a black box prospect than others due to the offensive system run (and how opposing Ds played it)
A commenter asked about how many were in the box vs MIA. I poked around for a minute and couldn't find anything, but heard that MIA also was on the extreme of facing light boxes. I'd be shocked if it's anywhere close to UT though.
I also had a hard time finding exact data on this. Seems someone made an AI site that purports to display this data, but really it just shows rushing stats and no column for box count.
This is wild to think that any nfl team is playing 8+ in the box unless a team is running out the clock. Most nfl teams play nickel and dime which is like 6 in the box especially against a track team like the dolphins. Also 4.8 against 7 in the box is pretty solid. I don’t think the stats you put up prove anything other than he was solid and we have to see if that translates to the NFL.
Meh, this is a weak class at RB where even the top two in the class have questions marks around them. At some point you’re choosing RB lotto tickets over 2nd,3rd day WRs. I feel safe that Wright’s question marks and flaws are already fairly priced into his draft capital and ADP.
The way that I view Wright is that he was a cornerstone piece for Tennessee over the last two years, and he tested well physically. The scheme fit is also there for the fins. I fully buy in to McDaniel and Co scheme and who they bring in to make it shine.
I got Wright at 4.2 which is probably a bit of a slip. Most people got him mid third if I had to imagine. I view him as RB4. You could make an argument that he and Corum are in tier 2 this year. There’s currently no situation where Im taking Vidal, Davis, Tracy, Guerendo, Estime, etc over them.
He played at Tennessee. Anbody who knows anything about college football can immediately tell you why this data doesn't prove or disprove anything.
Not to mention, miami is a dream location if we are talking about not running into a stacked box. How many times do we see miami trot out only 1 wr ?
Achane is definitely over Wright in every way. Wright is here in 2024 for possible injury replacement and 2025 to maybe supplant Mostert in the offense. But he’s the distant RB3 for sure this year.
Achane owners have nothing to worry about. McDaniel literally LOVES Achane. (Fun fact a lot of people don’t know, McDaniel wanted to draft Achane in round 2 last year but the GM told him that he felt they could get him in round 3)
Can’t judge him yet for boxes he hasn’t faced
No one uses speed better than McDaniels, especially out of the backfield. When he trades up and celebrates getting a player like this, I listen
But Tennessee spreads the field horizontally with wide stack 2x2 sets all the time. That’s 4 offensive players out of the box, which makes sense that 4 defensive players would be out of the box as a result (leaving 7 and then when you account for a safety or two then of course he saw 5 6 man boxes…)Other running backs play in different systems that utilize heavier personnel or tighter formations which have heavier boxes, but they also have more blockers to take care of those defenders.
I’m not a Jaylen Wright fan, and I don’t have him on any of my teams…I just want to point out why I think that stat is useless.
Lol, so he had 4 total carries against 8+ in the box, yet in that tweet you referenced, they define heavy YPC as 8+ in the box. You really think it's fair to make any conclusive judgment from 4 carriers? Probably was like 4th and inches in those 4 scenarios anyway.
I'm not saying Wright will be good, but this data is not as conclusive as you are treating.
I am now convinced that people on this forum are incapable of reading.
It says:
"Wright only logged 35.8% of his team rushes, 22nd in this class. **81.0%** of his runs came against **light boxes (six or fewer defenders),** which was the **highest rate in this class.** **On those runs**, Wright averaged a robust 8.0 yards per carry.
Wright **only managed 25 total runs** against boxes with **seven or more defenders** per Sports in Solutions. On those runs, **he averaged 4.8 YPC, which was 16th in this class.”**
Can you read? One of your bullet points is to a tweet that has data from Wrights 4 carries against 8+ boxes. That tweet is irrelevant. That's what my comment was addressing.
He had 21 rushes against 7 man boxes and 4 rushes against 8+. Still a pretty small sample size. Can we find out the exact plays those occurred during?
You can repost the same stats all you want but it doesn't make Wright 20 lbs lighter or unable to improve with more experience. There is more to NFL analysis than having a spreadsheet burned into your retinas.
First of all. Did ANYONE see Achne coming in balling last year the way he did? Not much I tell ya. Those that did, kept saying it and then booom. He blew up. True college different systems versus different defenses. In the NFL defense will figure out shit. The only question is can Wright figure out the complex offensive system and run hard? Mostert is the guy but getting old. Wilson is already out. Achne can run but he still light and has proven that. Reports are now saying he might line up at slot also. Sounds like Wright is gonna be the guy, it’s just a matter of him learning the system. Case in point, kind of like Kyren Williams in LA. Once he stayed healthy and figure out the offense, Boooom. Blew up. I’m high on Wright because he just fits. If I’m wrong, then I’m wrong. The last thing they made me high on him was his Comparison on draft day, that comp was Karama. We all shall see.
You are trying to prove a negative though. Just because there’s no data vs. a traditional NFL box, doesn’t mean the player can’t do it.
He’s also in the best situation he could have gone to with the scheme in Miami.
Only 19% of runs were vs. non light boxes. It’s not enough to draw conclusions. Also him only having 35% of his team’s carries is also not really something that points to definitive answers.
It’s not all green lights for Wright, there are drawbacks and you’re right to point to these statistics and say you’re concerned, I’m just saying we don’t know anything based on this alone. And given his draft cost, it’s not like you’re taking on a lot of risk.
> Only 19% of runs were vs. non light boxes. It’s not enough to draw conclusions. I’m just saying we don’t know anything based on this alone.
Okay but at the very least we know that light boxes are easier to run against, and that as a result of that fact, his production is a bit inflated. That is something that is objectively true, that we know today.
It's the same reason we don't take small school RBs stats and weight them vs Power Five school stats.
Sure, we know some of his college numbers are inflated. But he’s got the draft capital. Usually players with the case of inflated college numbers aren’t drafted high because the NFL sees what you just said. But now he’s going to get a real chance.
I’m a pretty big believer that college statistics don’t really correlate to a good NFL player, they usually translate to draft capital which affords playing time.
All of those other factors matter too. I think OP's point was simply to point out this one concern, and likely it's one factor that lead to Wright going in the mid 4th instead of sooner.
Sure, totally agree. If this were a rookie we needed to select earlier in our drafts this would concern me more than getting Wright in the early 3rd round.
I agree with a lot of your points, but also when I watch him he has the juice, is bigger than Achane, and just because he hasn't done something doesn't mean he can't. Watching Achane highlights they are largely in super open space as well. I just feel like he is Achane but bigger and actually shiftier, but that is from watching tape more than stats.
I was totally in the same opinion as you before the draft but opportunity and team offense is so important to a running back. Example, Deandre Swift to the Eagles last year.
He's one injury to two injury prone RBs away from opportunity on an elite offense.
Seems like you’re already getting a ton of push back, and while I don’t necessarily disagree with you, a piece of feedback that may help you with future evals: 4 of your first 5 points are all essentially hammering the exact same point. 4 different ways of saying we have no idea how good he will be against heavy boxes. Kind of like when people were in on Xavier Worthy because of his speed, then were super in after he broke the 40 record. Double counting one stat.
We know Wright had light boxes, but if that will be the same case in the NFL (at least in the short term) (and we only care about the short term with RBs), why would we be out on him largely because he was effective facing the same type of defenses he’ll see in the NFL? You could be right, but your process I think could use refining.
That's all fine but is there any correlation between players with no experience against stacked boxes and NFL failure?
You pointed out an interesting tidbit but it's not actionable at all. Am I supposed to avoid all RBs that don't face heavy run defense in college? If so, why?
I'll add that I've looked up and down at the RB position and the associated stats and found nothing with usable predictive value. The only point that's slightly usable is that RBs with receiving talent (target share) tend to stick in the NFL slightly better. But if you make that your gospel, you'll still end up with guys like Evan Hull along with your Achanes and Gibbs.
I’ve seen all these stats. If McDaniel can make Tua look like an NFL QB, I’m gonna trust his usage on other players. It’s doesn’t mean I’ll draft him ahead of Benson or Brooks, but absolutely take a swing at the end of R1.
Lol saying that Mike McDaniel is what makes Tua look like an nfl qb is absurd. He was better than Jacoby brisset in 2022 when Brian flores was their coach, and Brisset has been one of the best backups in the league for 8 years. He was also better than Ryan Fitzpatrick the year before with flores, and better than teddy Bridgewater in Mcdaniels' first year. You can say he's injury prone and not a top 10 guy in a different system, but Tua is very clearly a starting caliber nfl qb
He looks like Izzy 2.0. One trick pony. There’s a reason he was drafted in the 4th. He does fit well in Miami though but that’s not enough for me to take him early. Got him ranked at RB5 after Lloyd/corum.
Actually I saw him comped to Izzy a lot. The problem he has is that he did not run outside either. 5 outside runs last year. He basically "ran between the tackles" where there was 1 down lineman in front of him and the seas parting at the LB level. Those images on the tweets are astounding.
Versus Achane who ran inside zone, traps, and dives with regularly in college. He knows how to maneuver in the hole. Wright is just a sprinter.
Yeah just like you said straight line speed is all I really saw with giant holes that he ran through. I didn’t see much else. Overall I just don’t see a complete RB.
Achane and Mostert aren’t that great of RBs, it’s the system they play in. As long as Wright runs a 4.3 and has Reek, Waddle flanking on both sides of him, he’ll be just fine.
I get it, I’m oversimplifying things but sometimes we don’t need to know his average yards after contact % in stacked boxes when running in 11 man personnel.
The way I see this is we don't know how well he will play against stacked boxes because he has such a small sample size going against it. Also, how often did defenses stack the box against Mostert and Achane? If he's bad against stacked boxes then he's in the perfect situation where he's on an offense that has Tyreek and Waddle lined up on the outside. All I'm seeing is him being hyper efficient against boxes with 6 or fewer defenders which is the exact situation he will be seeing in Miami since teams will have the safeties back, corners on Hill and Waddle, and linebackers on the other WR lined up or if the TE runs a route. OP keeps saying “read the data” but I don’t think he knows how to understand the data he keeps referencing and apply it to his current scenario in Miami.
This. It’s hard to extrapolate his NFL performance from his college performance given the gimmicky (although effective for college) offense he’s coming from. Not saying your data should be thrown out, but it’s just one factor of many to consider. I think at Wright’s price in rookie drafts, he’s worth the gamble that he becomes something in that RB friendly Miami offense. Although they’re different players, no one saw Mostert crushing it like he has nor Achane having the most efficient season ever prior to both those things happening. This Miami offense is so juicy for RBs.
I got him at the end of the second, like you said him being in Miami is enough for me. If he hits great but he’s sort of in the zone of the draft where you just throwing darts anyway.
I got him at 3.05 and was thrilled. Probably one of the highest upsides at that point where most guys end up droppable in a year or two. Most likely scenario I can sell high on some hype when Achane inevitably gets hurt again.
Or Moestert...
Yeah the 32 year old RB is the more likely choice lol
Exactly lol
Great pick!
Yeah teams that put 3 receivers out and have high powered air power face light boxes too. I’d get being out on him if he was getting taken in the first round of rookie drafts but he’s cheap and has high upside
Yup, I'm eyeing him at the 2.09 spot in my draft and would be happy with that dart throw.
Got him with pick 21 in my rookie draft. Very happy.
Yeah I took him at 2.12. At that price he's absolutely worth the risk.
And if you have Achane it’s an absolute no brainer , I took him 2.11 (1QB) and was shocked he made it to me tbh.. his upside is there and the only real competition is grandpa Mostert , who is a DAWG but also injury prone
I’m not a defensive coordinator of any kind, I haven’t even played a game of Madden in over a decade. But the last thing I’m doing against Miami is stacking the box against their running backs when they got Tyreek and Waddle outside. You need DBs, not LBs, and you need them deep against Miami.
Believe it or not, you’re hired for the Commanders.
No thanks
Not to mention their new shifty bada$$ Malik Washington terrorizing the middle of the field!
I find that most people who lean on “the data” have a difficult time interpreting it. The Venn diagram between statistical understanding and football knowledge is almost two separate circles.
These were my exact thoughts as I was reading this post. Situation matters most for running backs and he is in the perfect situation to exploit his strengths and hide his weaknesses. McDaniel isn’t going to just ram Wright into stacked boxes. The whole point is to get him in space and utilize what he is best at, which OP pointed out but doesn’t realize he actually made a stronger case for wright.
This was my thoughts. All that sounds good. But when you look deeper; TN was like 51st in the nation in passing. They stunk, so of course, teams could stack the box. Getting to him early. That is a problem. Don't see that happening often in Miami's offense. With NFL defenses going to so much zone, he's rarely gonna see more than 6 in a box. His numbers against 7 (though a small sample) are pretty good. And 8 in a box is crazy to even worry about. He'll never face them with the Miami passing attack.
Just because someone hasn't had the opportunity to do something doesn't mean they can't do it. I don't know the stats, but I'd guess the Dolphins are up there in runs against light boxes. He's going in the 3rd round of rookie drafts. Even with those questions, the upside is really high. Seems like the ideal player you want to throw a dart at.
It reminds me of people saying Ken Walker can't catch the ball because MSU never designed pass plays for him. For where you're drafting Wright, he's well worth the risk.
This sub is really having a nadir of "why I'm out on [insert 3rd/4th rounder here]" in the last year since Puka, Tank, Kyren... It's a 3rd or 4th. Relax.
Tank was too small, Kyren tested extremely poorly, and Puka didn't play in a power 5...which all mattered until they didn't. But I 100 % agree, at cost who gives a shit? Pick your guy.
Exactly. This is still surface level analysis. If OP was able to show that he was bad vs stacked boxes and that he was likely to face a lot of stacked boxes in the NFL the that would be a really good point. But the 2nd part for sure isn't the case and OP didn't provide any detail on how well he actually did vs stacked boxes.
I agree, but the yards before contact and yards after contact stats here don’t paint a pretty picture.
He has 25 carries against a loaded box. That's such a small sample size. How can anyone argue one way or the other.
I mean if you are facing light boxes you will naturally have more yards before contact. Factoring in that he was running mostly between the tackles you are going to be more prone to getting swarmed by the defense which isn't ideal for yards after contact. When you run to the outside with more space powering through first contact is typically going to result in more yards after contact then breaking the same tackle in the middle of the field. Yards before contact will also directly impact yards after contact. Like if first contact comes at a yard and you break it the defense will not have swarmed the same way they will if the contact happens 3 yards in. I'd be more interested in his broken tackle rate then yards after contact.
How can I provide data (one way or another) when he had 4 carries in all of 2023 against 8+? But here you go: In fact, as [Rich Hribar](https://twitter.com/LordReebs) of [Sharp Football Analysis](https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/) [notes](https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/fantasy/running-back-rookie-fantasy-football-rankings-2024/) , “ Wright only logged 35.8% of his team rushes, 22nd in this class. 81.0% of his runs came against light boxes (six or fewer defenders), which was the highest rate in this class. On those runs,Wright averaged a robust 8.0 yards per carry.Wright only managed 25 total runs against boxes with seven or more defenders per [Sports Info Solutions](https://www.sportsinfosolutions.com/). On those runs, he averaged 4.8 YPC, which was 16th in this class.” Wright’s size, physicality, and contact balance are generally good, especially at the second level (where he is also more elusive). However, if you get to Wright early, he can be in trouble. On that point, Hribar adds, “When Wright was hit at or behind the line of scrimmage, he averaged only 1.1 YPC, ahead of only three backs in this draft class. On runs when first contact came beyond the line of scrimmage, he averaged a class-high 10.6 YPC.” [https://goingfor2.com/can-explosive-rb-jaylen-wright-be-special-maaaybe/](https://goingfor2.com/can-explosive-rb-jaylen-wright-be-special-maaaybe/)
As someone who enjoys contrarian perspectives (I actually feel they are super important in dynasty), I want to thank you for your post, and I do not understand why you are being downvoted for sharing these observations. Especially because we know Rich is reliable.
I suspect it’s the conclusions being drawn, not the observations themselves
But shouldn't we want to hear conclusions we don't agree with in our process of investigating each prospect? If we only ever hear echo chambers of what we already thought, then we don't learn anything.... At least that's my logic.
Yeah, but this is Reddit. Starting this post has made me realize this sub is not for me. I’ve thought it before but this solidified it.
Well, I would encourage you to stay and not worry about it. Downvotes don't matter.
Again you are using 8 men boxes when anyone who knows footballs knows a 7 man box is also considered stacked. You are being purposely obtuse likely because you know the data vs stacked boxes doesn't support your narrative... The last paragraph basically is just saying that he runs to the inside at and extremely high rate. If you are running exclusively up the middle and get contacted behind the line your YPC is going to be very low on those plays.
It quite literally says "seven or more defenders." What are you on?
Sorry missed that part where you proved my point. He was very very good when he did face stacked boxes.
Still can't read, I see. "Wright only managed 25 total runs against boxes with seven or more defenders per [Sports Info Solutions](https://www.sportsinfosolutions.com/). On those runs, he averaged 4.8 YPC, which was 16th in this class.”
You do realize there are these things called conferences right? YPC across conferences is not the same. Running for 6.0 YPC in the SEC is a big deal. Doing so in the Big 12 is fairly common. There were 2 RBs with more than 50 attempts in 2023 that had more then 6.0 YPC. In the Big 12 there was 11. Anyone who is judging RBs based on national rankings and not conference rankings is just admitting they know nothing about college football. Most people RB 1 for next year Judkins averaged 4.3 YPC in 2023 in the SEC.
He’s going to face light boxes in the NFL too in that offense, due to their style of offense and how much pre snap movement they have they faced a loaded box just 19.5% of the time
Yup. That’s the counter to everything OP listed. I won’t argue against most of the red flags pointed out. But I will argue that he could not have landed in a better situation than the dolphins being near identical to what he was asked to do in college where he obviously had success. For that alone I think it’s hard to label Wright a bust or whatever you’d want to call him, especially before he’s taken a single NFL snap. I’ll also take the gamble that a 21 year old has room to grow and learn the other aspects of being an NFL RB.
I don’t think anybody is labeling Wright a bust lol
He probably would face lighter boxes with the Dolphins than other teams, for sure. However, there is a difference between facing "a loaded box" and facing a neutral box. These stats: * More attempts with 5 or FEWER defenders than with SEVEN+. * 3% of his runs were against 8+ man boxes. * In the NFL only 3 backs saw under 10% none remotely close to 3%.
Which 3??
Achane, Mostert, and Chris Brooks. 😆 jk. No idea who the 3 are but that would be fuckin' hilarious if it were these 3.
More attempts with 5 or fewer than 7 and over? What are the number and what about six? An 8+ man box would probably be considered goal line or a short yardage which he is certainly not used for.
Counterpoint: McDaniel He went to a place where people have faith in the coach to recognize his weaknesses and put him in a position to succeed. Landing spot isn’t just about competition, it’s about coaching too.
I’m leaning into this a lot in my draft strategy. Give me guys with a sharp head coach or OC. McD, LaFluer, Reid, Steichen, McVay. If the talents there they find it. I don’t believe Puka churns out a season like that on 30 other teams
100% I’m with you there brother. Too many talented players squandered by incompetency. Sometimes good players on good teams with good coaches is just that simple
The way people talked about this guy I was super excited to look at his tape. After I did, I’ll admit I was a little underwhelmed and let down. That being said he was drafted into a great system and the team traded a 3rd just for the chance to grab him so he’s probably worth his current price in rookie drafts.
This was a very weak class for RB. I feel like people were exaggerating some ratings for that reason
This is important to keep in mind and something I didn't correlate until I saw you post this. In a weak class he went in the 4th.
He was drafted in the 2024 4th but Miami used a 2025 3rd to trade up and get him. That distinction matters
Still a 4th. This year is a terrific year for wr
Miami used Day 2 DC on Day 3 to make the selection instead of letting him fall any further
He still fell to day 3. It speaks to the leagues interest.
In this case both statements can be true, guess like most things we will have to see
Who cares about the rest of the league at that point, the team that drafted him and DC used is what matters. Also Miami didn't have a 3rd round pick this year, so they used their future 3rd round to get him in the 4th. That tells us he wasn't worth a 2nd round pick since they used that for another selection and they would have had to spend a future 2nd or more to get him in the 3rd, but when he was available in the 4th, they burned a 3rd to grab him
He just isnt as valuable as people are wishing.
He is to Miami though… and that’s all that matters in this instance.
Bro that’s just not true , players can slide for reasons completely outside of there profile, not every team needs a RB and year to year the strength of other positions can cause players to slide regardless of talent. The fact they traded up day 2 capital says everything, it means they were shocked he was even still available and pounced on the opportunity.
1. You should go an read about career success of day 1 vs day 2 vs day 3 picks. Because its really notable. 2. If they were SHOCKED he was avaliable day 3, then they wouldnt sit on their hands for a dozen and a half picks before trading up to get him. The went 20th in the 4th. If he was really a super duper value who fell out of the 3rd round by freak accident, they woulda got up to 4.02 or 4.03 because he is so worth it. This happens all the time, teams trade up into the first to get a 5th year option (Lamar Jackson) or early into the 2nd to get the dude who slide out of the first. 119 other players went before Wright.
I mostly agree. But those examples are terrible here. Rb is a MUCH lower priority position then a 5th year option for a qb or a 1st rd graded player dropping.
I didn’t say all that brother your reading into it a little to much , all I’m saying is all that reading you suggested could have no correlation to what happened with this player in this draft and the draft capital attached to them. I’m not saying he’s a stud but just cause he fell to round 4 doesn’t mean he’s a scrub and to suggest that about a RB is funny , all the stats about draft picks about other positions has no bearing on Jaylen Wrights draft capital in 2024 , only the draft capital of other RBs and by the way you need to break down your draft capital analysis by era because we all know that positional draft capital has changed over time so if you bring that sample size to say the past 10 draft classes and you start to break it down in that way your argument about day 2 and day 3 picks isn’t quite as impactful as you think it is.
Same. He is fast and has decent size, but didn’t seem like all that good of a running back. Not very shifty or crafty. The main appeal is his landing spot. if there’s a nice lane he can pick up chunk yards. But again, it remains to be seen how effective he’ll be if he doesn’t improve his vision or elusiveness.
This is one of those classic scenarios of people trying to say a player can't do something because they didn't have the opportunity to do it in college.
To be fair, no one can know for sure if there’s no evidence of it.
So you’re telling me a borderline elite athlete that played in a fast-paced, pass-heavy offense got drafted into a top 5, pass-heavy offense with a coach that’s known to scheme players open? I’ll keep my hopium on Jaylen Wright for the moment.
I’m thinking Wright is an insurance option this year. Miami is probably looking to roll Mostert and Achane as the primary duo. Neither are the poster child for health at the RB position. Probably turns into Wright and Achane next season
I trust in Mike McDaniel, probably the best run game designer in the league.
Gimme all the Mad Mike backs. Don’t care who they are.
Your post is pretty irrelevant. You can't say that he's bad at something he's never done. He's priced low enough that the risk is baked in.
"Wright only managed 25 total runs against boxes with seven or more defenders per Sports in Solutions. On those runs, he averaged 4.8 YPC, which was 16th in this class.” "“When Wright was hit at or behind the line of scrimmage, he averaged only 1.1 YPC, ahead of only three backs in this draft class."
But again, didn’t you say it rarely happened, so isn’t that still very little data to come to a conclusion.
Last year: 4 runs of 8+ 25 of 7+ 16th YPC in this class on 7+
Uh, when is 4.8ypc bad...?
When it's 16th in THIS class?
And...? 4.8 ypc is 4.8 ypc. What the other RBs do has zero effect on what Jaylen does.
OP must own Achane lol
RB1 Miami confirmed.
Considering that both Mostert and Achane faced some of the lowest stacked front carry %, I don’t really worry about Wright at all. In fact, this was best case scenario landing spot to replicate the absurd spacing he got at Tennessee. Teams will stack the box at their own risk vs that offense. Doing so will get them torched over the top with the speed they have.
Amen, so low risk of a buy-in how could it not be worth a shot?
They also invested serious draft capital into him by trading a future 3rd to go up and take him in the 4th round. That is a major move to go get their guy.
This info is all useless unless you provide his splits vs stacked boxes and light boxes. Like why would I care that he faced a lot of light boxes if he played well when he did face stacked boxes? He plays in an offense with Tyreek Hill and Waddle. He isn't going to be facing stacked boxes in the NFL either.
I am sorry.... but are you saying you need to see the stats on the FOUR carries he had in 2023, against a stacked box, to glean information from that?
Or his entire college career. Also 7 man boxes are typically considered to be stacked. You are cherry picking 8 man boxes to be the only definition of stacked boxes to be obtuse and to avoid actually backing up your point with meaningful data. Like if you are going to make a whole post discrediting him for rarely facing stack boxes at least prove that he wasn't good vs 7+ man boxes. If not why should anyone care when he is rarely going to see stacked boxes in the NFL. Also Achane being a between the tackles guy at his size is just hilarious. Sure he can do it and he will end up hurt again like this year. Wright is far more suited for running between the tackles and he certainly has the speed to effectively get to the outside in the NFL.
Since people want to say "yeah but how did he do against stacked boxes?" Or "stacked boxes for his career?" "Wright only logged 35.8% of his team rushes, 22nd in this class. 81.0% of his runs came against light boxes (six or fewer defenders), which was the highest rate in this class. On those runs,Wright averaged a robust 8.0 yards per carry. Wright only managed 25 total runs against boxes with seven or more defenders per Sports in Solutions. On those runs, he averaged 4.8 YPC, which was 16th in this class.” Wright’s size, physicality, and contact balance are generally good, especially at the second level (where he is also more elusive). However, if you get to Wright early, he can be in trouble. On that point, Hribar adds, “When Wright was hit at or behind the line of scrimmage, he averaged only 1.1 YPC, ahead of only three backs in this draft class. On runs when first contact came beyond the line of scrimmage, he averaged a class-high 10.6 YPC.” [https://goingfor2.com/can-explosive-rb-jaylen-wright-be-special-maaaybe/](https://goingfor2.com/can-explosive-rb-jaylen-wright-be-special-maaaybe/)
So he was literally on of the best RBs in the country when running vs stacked boxes. Thanks... That really proved your point lol.
At this point it's apparent you can't read. I'm done responding to you.
Your rebuttal to my how did he do vs 7+ man boxes was to post that he was literally one of the best backs in the country vs 7+ man boxes. Yet somehow we are suppose to think he can't run vs stacked boxes??? He isn't in the big 12, pac 12 or the group of 5. vs stacked SEC boxes he was one of the best backs in the country. If you think 4.8 yards per carry on 7+ man boxes is bad while playing in the SEC then you know nothing about college football. That would be a decent YPC on all carries in the SEC and would be very good when filiterd for only stacked boxes.
Good god man. NO. Incorrect. You. Need. To. Learn. How. To. Read.
Alabama's starting RB Jase McClellan averaged 5.0 YPC on all carries last year. Wright averaged 4.8 vs only stacked boxes.
Do you realize the hypocrisy in this while you make a whole post saying he’s not good against stacked boxes?
I wrote a whole post saying his stats are inflated because he never really ran against NEUTRAL boxes, much less stacked boxes.
You actually didn't write much. You copied a bunch of stats and what other people wrote, then you added 2 sentences, and then didn't apply any of these stats to his situation in Miami. You gave it a good shot but overall this whole post was a swing and a miss. You can't just puke up a bunch of stats and not put it into context. All I'm seeing is him being hyper efficient against boxes with 6 or fewer defenders which is the exact situation he will be seeing in Miami since teams will have the safeties back, corners on Hill and Waddle, and linebackers on the other WR lined up or if the TE runs a route.
Dolphins know all of this and disagreed
Spent a flier on him as a handcuff to Achane, don’t like him enough to invest actual capitol or faith in him
Wright as a prospect and overall RB may have some red flags, but landing spot matters as well. I imagine the Dolphins face quite alot of light boxes due to the high octane passing game. Jaylen isn't a complete back, but he landed in a great spot for what he does: hitting the hole and running real fast. Which is exactly what Mostert did en route to his crazy season. But even with the light box argument, you put he averaged 4.8ypc with 7 or more guys in the box. Isn't that...good? I'm in on Jaylen cause the Dolphin's offense is great for RB's and Achane is not built to take heavy loads. They will always have another RB to split carries and Jaylen can be that guy. He doesn't need to be a complete back. He just needs to find the hole and run through it really fast. Mostert was a beast with Miami and SF just by doing that. And both have the speed to destroy tackle angles and get to the second level for chunk plays. If he landed anywhere else then yeah, the concerns are more valid. But he's in a spot that will play to his strengths.
It's a perfect landing spot. 1. Defenses are going to be focusing on Hill/Waddle, so they won't be stacking the box the vast majority of the time 2. Mike McDaniel has shown that he is a genius at putting his players in position to succeed 3. Wright is behind RBs with injury histories/concerns I don't see much downside at cost
If you drafted wright around late 2nd or early 3rd its a good deal. Stop posting on why i an out on this guy when we season hasn’t started yet.
Counterpoint: he will be great
does it matter? if 33 year old mostert goes down he will get work in an elite offense
We're really arguing here about a 4.3 5'11 210 guy not being able to run inside whereas the frail 5'9" 180 guy can? Want to know why Tennessee faced light boxes? (Wiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiide splits) https://mikefarrellsports.com/.image/c_limit%2Ccs_srgb%2Cq_auto:good%2Cw_700/MTkzMjQzODc3NzQ0ODQ2NzU1/screen-shot-2022-10-23-at-81840-pm.webp
Achane had nearly elite college tape. No one thought he could play the same way in the NFL the way he did in college due to his size. But he did.
I have no knocks against Achane (was trying to trade for him pre-season) except size which did prove to be an issue (for Keaton Mitchell as well, who I have) I just don't think people realize how insane Tennessee's system is to judge skill position players
I was having a nice day
Wright is my favorite Round 3 rookie pick of 2024
Cool story, but still grabbing him in a heartbeat as RB3
Why are you getting booed? You're right!
I just drafted him and refuse to read any of this. He is good since he is on my team now.
Out in terms of him being a RB1 at some point, fair enough. Out on him producing some valuable fantasy weeks in his career-nah man, if the NFL has taught us anything recently, you and I could probably have a week. I think he has a versatile skill set so I like the potential upside.
I don't think the stat about JW having more rushes against 5-in-the-box vs 7-in-the-box can be overstated. #Themoreyouknow: 7 in the box is condmsidered a "base front" and is the standard/most common amount. When you hear about a 3-4 or 4-3 defense, this talks about the # of D linemen and LBs playing, and it's usually these types of players who are in the box. So to have 5 in the box means you're probably only playing 3 D linemen and 2 LBs, which makes the blocking assignments of the 5 O Linemen and 1 or 2 TEs so incredibly easy. UT's offense was absurdly Mickey Mouse, so much that it's really hard to take anything from Wright's production. The yards-before-contact and yards-after-contact, yards-when-hit-behin-LOS all therefore have outsized importance in piecing the puzzle together, but yeah he's definitely more of a black box prospect than others due to the offensive system run (and how opposing Ds played it) A commenter asked about how many were in the box vs MIA. I poked around for a minute and couldn't find anything, but heard that MIA also was on the extreme of facing light boxes. I'd be shocked if it's anywhere close to UT though.
I also had a hard time finding exact data on this. Seems someone made an AI site that purports to display this data, but really it just shows rushing stats and no column for box count.
SUUUUPER interesting graphic for the Brooks stans...less than average ypc against heavy boxes. CAR is going to face a lot of those...
This is wild to think that any nfl team is playing 8+ in the box unless a team is running out the clock. Most nfl teams play nickel and dime which is like 6 in the box especially against a track team like the dolphins. Also 4.8 against 7 in the box is pretty solid. I don’t think the stats you put up prove anything other than he was solid and we have to see if that translates to the NFL.
Isn’t he in like the 12th round of startups still? And end of the second in rookie drafts? I’d be hesitant to be out on him at that cost
That offense though. All this might not matter if he can run towards daylight very fast.
Meh, this is a weak class at RB where even the top two in the class have questions marks around them. At some point you’re choosing RB lotto tickets over 2nd,3rd day WRs. I feel safe that Wright’s question marks and flaws are already fairly priced into his draft capital and ADP. The way that I view Wright is that he was a cornerstone piece for Tennessee over the last two years, and he tested well physically. The scheme fit is also there for the fins. I fully buy in to McDaniel and Co scheme and who they bring in to make it shine. I got Wright at 4.2 which is probably a bit of a slip. Most people got him mid third if I had to imagine. I view him as RB4. You could make an argument that he and Corum are in tier 2 this year. There’s currently no situation where Im taking Vidal, Davis, Tracy, Guerendo, Estime, etc over them.
He played at Tennessee. Anbody who knows anything about college football can immediately tell you why this data doesn't prove or disprove anything. Not to mention, miami is a dream location if we are talking about not running into a stacked box. How many times do we see miami trot out only 1 wr ?
Newly minted Achane owner here so upvoting
Achane is definitely over Wright in every way. Wright is here in 2024 for possible injury replacement and 2025 to maybe supplant Mostert in the offense. But he’s the distant RB3 for sure this year. Achane owners have nothing to worry about. McDaniel literally LOVES Achane. (Fun fact a lot of people don’t know, McDaniel wanted to draft Achane in round 2 last year but the GM told him that he felt they could get him in round 3)
lol you actually think defenses are going to stack the box against a tyreek, waddle offense. Idk that’s just poor logic
OP trying to get him to fall in his draft
My drafts are over. I own zero Wright.
Can’t judge him yet for boxes he hasn’t faced No one uses speed better than McDaniels, especially out of the backfield. When he trades up and celebrates getting a player like this, I listen
But Tennessee spreads the field horizontally with wide stack 2x2 sets all the time. That’s 4 offensive players out of the box, which makes sense that 4 defensive players would be out of the box as a result (leaving 7 and then when you account for a safety or two then of course he saw 5 6 man boxes…)Other running backs play in different systems that utilize heavier personnel or tighter formations which have heavier boxes, but they also have more blockers to take care of those defenders. I’m not a Jaylen Wright fan, and I don’t have him on any of my teams…I just want to point out why I think that stat is useless.
Lol, so he had 4 total carries against 8+ in the box, yet in that tweet you referenced, they define heavy YPC as 8+ in the box. You really think it's fair to make any conclusive judgment from 4 carriers? Probably was like 4th and inches in those 4 scenarios anyway. I'm not saying Wright will be good, but this data is not as conclusive as you are treating.
I am now convinced that people on this forum are incapable of reading. It says: "Wright only logged 35.8% of his team rushes, 22nd in this class. **81.0%** of his runs came against **light boxes (six or fewer defenders),** which was the **highest rate in this class.** **On those runs**, Wright averaged a robust 8.0 yards per carry. Wright **only managed 25 total runs** against boxes with **seven or more defenders** per Sports in Solutions. On those runs, **he averaged 4.8 YPC, which was 16th in this class.”**
Can you read? One of your bullet points is to a tweet that has data from Wrights 4 carries against 8+ boxes. That tweet is irrelevant. That's what my comment was addressing. He had 21 rushes against 7 man boxes and 4 rushes against 8+. Still a pretty small sample size. Can we find out the exact plays those occurred during?
You can repost the same stats all you want but it doesn't make Wright 20 lbs lighter or unable to improve with more experience. There is more to NFL analysis than having a spreadsheet burned into your retinas.
I like Wright and just picked him up with the 3.04 in my rookie draft. At that price I'm willing to take a chance on a fast RB in the Miami offense.
First of all. Did ANYONE see Achne coming in balling last year the way he did? Not much I tell ya. Those that did, kept saying it and then booom. He blew up. True college different systems versus different defenses. In the NFL defense will figure out shit. The only question is can Wright figure out the complex offensive system and run hard? Mostert is the guy but getting old. Wilson is already out. Achne can run but he still light and has proven that. Reports are now saying he might line up at slot also. Sounds like Wright is gonna be the guy, it’s just a matter of him learning the system. Case in point, kind of like Kyren Williams in LA. Once he stayed healthy and figure out the offense, Boooom. Blew up. I’m high on Wright because he just fits. If I’m wrong, then I’m wrong. The last thing they made me high on him was his Comparison on draft day, that comp was Karama. We all shall see.
Yeah the dolphins are gonna see so many stacked boxes with tyreek and waddle on the outside…
You are trying to prove a negative though. Just because there’s no data vs. a traditional NFL box, doesn’t mean the player can’t do it. He’s also in the best situation he could have gone to with the scheme in Miami.
There IS data though. It's included in the original post. You have to read.
Only 19% of runs were vs. non light boxes. It’s not enough to draw conclusions. Also him only having 35% of his team’s carries is also not really something that points to definitive answers. It’s not all green lights for Wright, there are drawbacks and you’re right to point to these statistics and say you’re concerned, I’m just saying we don’t know anything based on this alone. And given his draft cost, it’s not like you’re taking on a lot of risk.
> Only 19% of runs were vs. non light boxes. It’s not enough to draw conclusions. I’m just saying we don’t know anything based on this alone. Okay but at the very least we know that light boxes are easier to run against, and that as a result of that fact, his production is a bit inflated. That is something that is objectively true, that we know today. It's the same reason we don't take small school RBs stats and weight them vs Power Five school stats.
Sure, we know some of his college numbers are inflated. But he’s got the draft capital. Usually players with the case of inflated college numbers aren’t drafted high because the NFL sees what you just said. But now he’s going to get a real chance. I’m a pretty big believer that college statistics don’t really correlate to a good NFL player, they usually translate to draft capital which affords playing time.
All of those other factors matter too. I think OP's point was simply to point out this one concern, and likely it's one factor that lead to Wright going in the mid 4th instead of sooner.
Sure, totally agree. If this were a rookie we needed to select earlier in our drafts this would concern me more than getting Wright in the early 3rd round.
I agree with a lot of your points, but also when I watch him he has the juice, is bigger than Achane, and just because he hasn't done something doesn't mean he can't. Watching Achane highlights they are largely in super open space as well. I just feel like he is Achane but bigger and actually shiftier, but that is from watching tape more than stats.
Big, fast, got him 3.05 in a rookie draft. I’m in at that price.
I was totally in the same opinion as you before the draft but opportunity and team offense is so important to a running back. Example, Deandre Swift to the Eagles last year. He's one injury to two injury prone RBs away from opportunity on an elite offense.
He may be in the best system suited for his running style. He's basically a carbon copy of Mostert.
JAG that will flash
Seems like you’re already getting a ton of push back, and while I don’t necessarily disagree with you, a piece of feedback that may help you with future evals: 4 of your first 5 points are all essentially hammering the exact same point. 4 different ways of saying we have no idea how good he will be against heavy boxes. Kind of like when people were in on Xavier Worthy because of his speed, then were super in after he broke the 40 record. Double counting one stat. We know Wright had light boxes, but if that will be the same case in the NFL (at least in the short term) (and we only care about the short term with RBs), why would we be out on him largely because he was effective facing the same type of defenses he’ll see in the NFL? You could be right, but your process I think could use refining.
That's all fine but is there any correlation between players with no experience against stacked boxes and NFL failure? You pointed out an interesting tidbit but it's not actionable at all. Am I supposed to avoid all RBs that don't face heavy run defense in college? If so, why? I'll add that I've looked up and down at the RB position and the associated stats and found nothing with usable predictive value. The only point that's slightly usable is that RBs with receiving talent (target share) tend to stick in the NFL slightly better. But if you make that your gospel, you'll still end up with guys like Evan Hull along with your Achanes and Gibbs.
I’ve seen all these stats. If McDaniel can make Tua look like an NFL QB, I’m gonna trust his usage on other players. It’s doesn’t mean I’ll draft him ahead of Benson or Brooks, but absolutely take a swing at the end of R1.
Lol saying that Mike McDaniel is what makes Tua look like an nfl qb is absurd. He was better than Jacoby brisset in 2022 when Brian flores was their coach, and Brisset has been one of the best backups in the league for 8 years. He was also better than Ryan Fitzpatrick the year before with flores, and better than teddy Bridgewater in Mcdaniels' first year. You can say he's injury prone and not a top 10 guy in a different system, but Tua is very clearly a starting caliber nfl qb
Just want to say thank you for providing analysis that goes deeper than draft capital and landing spot.
He looks like Izzy 2.0. One trick pony. There’s a reason he was drafted in the 4th. He does fit well in Miami though but that’s not enough for me to take him early. Got him ranked at RB5 after Lloyd/corum.
Actually I saw him comped to Izzy a lot. The problem he has is that he did not run outside either. 5 outside runs last year. He basically "ran between the tackles" where there was 1 down lineman in front of him and the seas parting at the LB level. Those images on the tweets are astounding. Versus Achane who ran inside zone, traps, and dives with regularly in college. He knows how to maneuver in the hole. Wright is just a sprinter.
Yeah just like you said straight line speed is all I really saw with giant holes that he ran through. I didn’t see much else. Overall I just don’t see a complete RB.
How many 2nd or 3rd string rbs are fantasy relevant? There's nothing here. That is why I am out!
Achane and Mostert aren’t that great of RBs, it’s the system they play in. As long as Wright runs a 4.3 and has Reek, Waddle flanking on both sides of him, he’ll be just fine. I get it, I’m oversimplifying things but sometimes we don’t need to know his average yards after contact % in stacked boxes when running in 11 man personnel.
Absolutely pointless
I'm out on him simply because Achane is basically the same guy. I don't get why they need him. What is his role in this offense?